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Shake Shack Gets Smoked After Cutting Guidance

Shake Shack plunged on Tuesday, hitting its lowest levels since November 2023, after the burger chain slashed second-quarter guidance only about a month after issuing it.

Baird analyst David Tarantino said the new outlook is viewed as "incrementally negative" for Shake Shack.

Tarantino noted that management had set an "unusually high bar" for 2Q comparable performance with its previous outlook, implying mid- to high-single-digit comps in May and June after -.6%.

He added that the updated guidance ranges may be attributed to new CFO Michelle Hook, who started May 11, and said "desire to set a more achievable bar going forward."

The burger chain, which has 445 stores in the U.S., now expects second-quarter revenue of $415 million to $420 million, down from its prior forecast of $424 million to $428 million.

Same-Shack sales growth is now expected to be 2.5% to 3%, down from the earlier 3% to 5% range. Shares sank 11% in the late-morning cash session, extending a nearly yearlong bear-market slide.

Here's a snapshot of the 2Q Forecast:

• Sees total revenue $415 million to $420 million, saw $424 million to $428 million, estimate $421.9 million

• Sees licensing revenue $13.5 million to $13.7 million

• Sees same-Shack sales 2.5% to 3%, saw 3% to 5%

• Sees restaurant level operating margin 22% to 23%, estimate 24.2%

• Sees Company-operating openings about 16, estimate 18

"These results are particularly encouraging in the face of a challenging macro environment and inclement weather," Shake Shack wrote in a corporate presentation.

The downgrade adds to concerns that higher beef prices and other input prices are compressing margins. There are also concerns that cash-strapped consumers are dialing back purchases on higher-priced menu items.

Related:

• Shake Shack Shares Crash Most On Record; McDonald's CEO Warns Of Faltering Consumer

Last month, Shake Shack reported a small multi-million-dollar loss in the first quarter despite a 14% revenue increase, reflecting the costs of investments to boost foot traffic.

Shares are now roughly 60% off their peak, a drawdown that has historically coincided with the stock's bottom. That said, downside pressure could still extend toward the $40 to $50 range, which has served as support during previous selloffs.

Shake Shack's guidance cut suggests the premium growth story is over for at least now, and the fast-casual restaurant chain may need a clearer turnaround plan to reignite Wall Street optimism. Perhaps that's what CFO Hook is about to engineer in the quarters ahead. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 15:20

Pentagon Restricts Press Office Access Over Privacy Concerns

Via American Greatness,

The Pentagon announced Monday that reporters will no longer have open access to the War Department’s public affairs office after the space was redesignated as a classified facility to accommodate staff handling sensitive material.

The announcement marks the latest effort by the Pete Hegseth-led War Department to tighten operational security and reshape longstanding media access practices inside the Pentagon.

Under the new policy, the Pentagon’s public affairs office has been converted into a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility, commonly known as a SCIF.

The office had previously allowed journalists to enter without escorts and directly approach military public affairs officials with questions.

Pentagon spokesman Joel Valdez said the change was necessary because speechwriters working in the office routinely handle classified material and require access to secure government systems.

“This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that,” Valdez wrote in a post on X.

This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that.

The Pentagon Press Office has been redesignated as a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility due to speechwriters from the Office of the Secretary of War… https://t.co/tlWb1XIeOk

— Acting Press Sec Joel Valdez (@JoelValdezDOW) June 1, 2026

“These speechwriters routinely handle classified material and require SIPRNet access. As a result, journalists will no longer be permitted to enter the office space. There’s nothing controversial about that,” he added.

Valdez said reporters will still have access to the Pentagon press secretary and the Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs through scheduled appointments.

The policy change comes months after War Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed additional restrictions on media operations at the Pentagon.

Last October, the department introduced new rules allowing officials to revoke press credentials from reporters designated as security risks.

The New York Times subsequently filed two lawsuits against the Pentagon, arguing the restrictions violate First Amendment protections. Both cases remain pending in court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 15:05

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HSBC Warns Of Commodity "Super-Squeeze" As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts

Copper is inching closer to its mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning, as Goldman raised its year-end price targets and HSBC warned that commodities face a "super-squeeze" with the Hormuz maritime chokepoint still largely shuttered in early June.

Let's begin with HSBC analysts, who wrote in a note to clients that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand."

They warned that commodities were facing a "super-squeeze" with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

HSBC's note comes after Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core issue with copper markets right now is supply:

• Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.

At the same time, she said stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-US market:

• Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.

The combination of soft mine supply, US stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:

• We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).

She mapped out three price scenarios for copper:

1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.

2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.

3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.

Mapped out here:

Professional subscribers can read the full copper note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

With Hormuz still all but shuttered and only a 22% chance that the critical waterway reopens by the end of June, according to a Polymarket bet, it would take many months, if not quarters, to normalize shipping flows. This indicates that the commodities cycle will likely remain bullish into early summer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 14:45

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