By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
The share of gasoline cars in global vehicle sales fell below 50% for the first time ever as the Hormuz shock and the resulting record-high fuel prices accelerated the previously sluggish shift toward EVs outside China.
A few years ago, China blew past the threshold of 50% of all car sales being hybrids and EVs, and the share is now about 55%. But the rest of the world didn’t follow until the Iran war disrupted the fuel markets.
Global sales shares of EVs are far from the Chinese numbers, but the shift toward electric vehicles has been remarkably fast amid spiking gasoline and diesel prices, which pushed many consumers to choose EVs.
The surge in gasoline prices this year led to the first dip in the share of gasoline-fueled cars below 50%, ever, according to data by automotive data and analytics provider Mobility Global cited by Nikkei Asia.
Between January and June, sales of gas-powered vehicles, excluding hybrids, slumped by 10% from a year earlier, to 20.25 million cars, and their share of total global automotive sales fell by 3 percentage points to 49%, the data showed.
For years, the EV uptake in markets outside China was sluggish and lagging forecasts, but the Hormuz crisis, the $100 oil prices, and record diesel and gasoline prices pushed many consumers in Europe, South America, and Asia Pacific toward EVs.
Battery electric vehicle sales in Europe, including the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, surged by 52.2% in August from a year earlier as record-high gasoline and diesel prices prompted drivers to flock to battery and hybrid vehicles, data by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, showed last month.
BEV sales in Germany, the biggest car market in Europe, soared by 75% in August year-over-year, as gasoline prices in Germany hit an all-time high of 2.31 euros per liter, or the equivalent of about $10 per gallon.
EV sales in France, another major European market, more than doubled.
In Germany, where the government introduced a purchase premium for EVs from January 2026, sales are accelerating, an analysis by the German Institute for Economic Research, DIW, showed earlier this week.
One in every four passenger cars sold in Germany between January and August was a pure battery electric vehicle, while the share in August was even higher – one in every three passenger cars sold was a BEV, according to the analysis. This compares to an average of 19% in 2025.
Globally, electric vehicle sales have surged this year following the oil supply disruption in the Middle East and the second oil price shock in four years.
Following a subdued start to the year, EV sales jumped in the second quarter after the Middle East crisis slashed crude supply and hiked oil and fuel prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in July in an update to its annual EV outlook.
EV sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter, rising by 35% compared with the first quarter “as the energy crisis sparked by the war in the Middle East brought fuel price volatility back into sharp focus,” the agency said.
EV sales in the second quarter reached record-high levels in 50 countries as drivers preferred electric vehicles amid soaring fuel prices.
In sizable car markets such as Brazil, India, Australia, and Vietnam, electric car sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025, according to the IEA’s analysis in the report.
Moreover, as many as 90 countries saw annual growth in EV sales in the first half of the year.
The accelerating EV adoption that began with the spike in oil and fuel prices is set to remain a trend in the global markets and could push the share of EVs in the passenger fleet above earlier expectations, analysts at Wood Mackenzie say.
Challenges to accelerated adoption still remain, including the need for billions of U.S. dollars in investments in critical battery minerals supply and charging networks. Yet, the longer the Strait of Hormuz crisis roils global fuel markets, the stronger the case for EV adoption could become.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 13:20Update(1015ET): The news outlet of pro-Iranian factions in Iraq, Sabereen News, has cited new satellite imagery to report "massive fires in the Saudi oil export pipeline."
The outlet posted the following image on its official Telegram channel. Newsquawk, which picked up the Sabereen report, has noted that it remains unclear whether this is a new incident or is damage stemming from the earlier reported Sunday attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (detailed below):
The same platform reviews:
And more: Yemeni Houthis hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) with missiles, Sabereen reports
Some other open source regional watchers have similarly observed:
Pumping Station No. 2 east of Riyadh appears to have been hit again. Oct 4 satellite imagery shows smoke stretching 50km from the site. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was still recovering from September. @SoarAtlas https://t.co/s35nauXeBV
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 5, 2026Regional escalation moving fast:
BREAKING: Multiple reports indicate that Ansar Allah (Houthis) have launched missiles towards the Bab al-Mandeb. The Saudi/Yemen War is escalating VERY fast this morning following the commencement of the Saudi-backed Yemeni counteroffensive.
— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) October 5, 2026Some further (unconfirmed) footage emerging...
Footage shows a plume of smoke rising from Jeddah, following an Ansarallah ballistic missile attack on a Saudi ARAMCO refinery. Notably, for some time now, Saudi Arabia has stopped sending early warning alerts for missile and drone attacks from Yemen. https://t.co/2m87cCpYsc
— MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) October 5, 2026* * *
"The East-West pipeline was attacked again yesterday," a source working in the kingdom’s energy sector told Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Monday. "A pumping station east of Riyadh in Khurais. It wasn’t targeted before. There was big damage and the pipeline stopped again."
However, follow-up reports were quick to note that the some 745-mile pipeline between Saudi Arabia's main oil fields in the east and the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea are already back to operating normally and that flows are continuing.
AFP ImageBloomberg reports Monday, "Oil continues to flow through the East-West link, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information" - while confirming that the conduit was briefly halted over the weekend due to attack.
The East-West pipeline has been targeted several times after renewed Houthi-Saudi fighting over prior weeks, and such attacks could continue given that fighting has only intensified in neighboring Yemen.
The Saudi-backed government there over the weekend announced a "new phase in the battle to restore the state." Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani wrote on X that the Saudi-backed military operation aims to "extend authority … over every inch of Yemen’s land."
"The recovery of land, islands, and strategic positions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait … directly contributes to safeguarding one of the world's most vital maritime passages and securing international trade and navigation, after the Houthi militia turned it into a tool for extortion and threats," he said of the anti-Houthi fight.
Flows through the east west pipeline have not been interrupted, despite some reports suggesting otherwise #OOTT #Aramco
— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) October 5, 2026But amid optimistic pro-Riyadh headlines of counter-Houthi progress, the Ansar Allah movement is saying these reports are exagerrated.
Houthi official Hizam al-Assad has been cited in Nour News on Monday as saying that the Saudi coalition' mercenaries are fleeing and that headlines of "victory" do not capture the reality on the ground but something only being floated for inaccurate media reports. Per the regional report:
Meanwhile the chief executive of the world’s biggest oil company, Saudi Aramco, offered some negative news on global crude supplies Monday.
He doesn't see the current situation as “normalizing” anytime soon, and so squeeze on crude oil and refined fuels is set to tighten.
🔴BREAKING: The squeeze on supplies of crude oil and refined fuels is set to worsen, and refilling global stockpiles tapped as an emergency measure might take two years, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser tells the Energy Intelligence conference in London. https://t.co/Z0BcmFFHtU
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) October 5, 2026"Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify. Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years," Amin Nasser told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.
"The system is already straining," he said in what importantly marked his first in-person speech since the launch of the Iran war. According to more from the Aramco chief: "Brent crude prices would have reached up to $200 per barrel if Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline did not exist," he said.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 13:15Given the high stress and high alert in bond markets, which has pushed global 10Y yields to the highest level since 2022 and with Europe finding itself on the verge of another sovereign debt crisis...
... the main focus in the week ahead will be on central banks, with the minutes from the September FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the ECB’s account of its latest meeting on Thursday.
There is also a busy run of central-bank speakers, while the data calendar includes US ISM services today and the University of Michigan survey on Friday, a run of German activity data through the week, and Japanese wages on Wednesday.
In the US, the week begins in the shadow of Friday’s important September employment report. Headline payrolls rose just +29k, compared with +133k expected, while private payrolls increased +46k versus +127k expected. There were also 60k of downward revisions to headline payrolls over the previous two months, and average hourly earnings rose only +0.1% against +0.3% expected. Nevertheless, DB's US economists think the details still point to a broadly stable labor market. The unemployment rate edged up only slightly to 4.175% from 4.141%, the broader U-6 rate fell a tenth to 7.6%, and participation rose two-tenths to 61.8%, its highest since May last year. Prime-age participation and the employment-to-population ratio also recovered further after their unusually large June declines. So although the headline payroll number was disappointing, the wider labor-market picture remains relatively resilient, particularly alongside recent ADP and jobless-claims readings, and DB's economists continue to expect two further 25bp Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters. The market is pricing in another 86bps over the next 12 months, down from 100bps early last week but up from 70bps just after the payroll release. So lots of vol on Friday in rates and fixed income as we'll see in the review of the week at the end.
The highly unsettled bond market makes the incoming US data and Fed communication particularly relevant. The first key release is the September ISM services index today, where DB economists expect the headline gauge to rise to 55.9 from 55.4 in August (it rose 55.8). Tomorrow brings the August trade balance, while Wednesday’s September FOMC minutes should provide more color on the near-term policy outlook.
Since the meeting, Fed communication has broadly reinforced the quarterly pace of rate hikes implied by the September SEP. Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams have both indicated a preference to take some time to assess incoming data before deciding on the next move, but several officials have continued to argue for additional tightening. So the minutes will be worth watching for how the broader Committee is framing the current tightening cycle and for its discussion of the neutral rate, where estimates shifted higher in the September SEP.
The rest of the US calendar is lighter. Thursday brings initial jobless claims and August wholesale trade sales, before attention turns to the preliminary October University of Michigan survey on Friday. Economists expect consumer sentiment to dip to 47.7, versus 48.1 in September. The survey may attract some extra attention with the November 3 midterm elections approaching. More broadly, DB's US economists currently estimate Q3 real GDP growth at 3.3% annualized, and this week’s activity data will help refine that estimate.
Moving to Europe, the ECB publishes the minutes of its September meeting on Thursday, alongside a packed speaker calendar. It'll be interesting to see whether the French situation gets prominent mentions. Germany has a particularly busy run of activity data, with August factory orders tomorrow, industrial production on Wednesday and the trade balance on Thursday. France releases August industrial production tomorrow, while Italy follows on Friday. Sweden publishes September CPI on Wednesday and Norway on Friday.
In the UK, the BoE releases its Bank Liabilities and Credit Conditions surveys on Thursday, when Governor Bailey is also due to speak.
In Asia, Japan is the main focus. August labour cash earnings are released on Wednesday, with markets expecting same-sample total cash earnings growth to accelerate to 3.6% year-on-year from 2.9% in July. The September Economy Watchers survey follows on Thursday and August household spending on Friday. China’s September foreign-exchange reserves are also due on Wednesday.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday October 5
Tuesday October 6
Wednesday October 7
Thursday October 8
Friday October 9
Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the trade balance report on Tuesday. The minutes to the September FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials scheduled this week.
Monday, October 5
Tuesday, October 6
Wednesday, October 7
Thursday, October 8
Friday, October 9
Source: DB, Goldman
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 12:49Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,
The decline of higher education into an ideological echo chamber has been widely discussed on this and other sites. Polls show record lows in the public trust in our universities and colleges as revenues decline and closures increase. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon responded to this meltdown with a common-sense call for greater transparency and tolerance.
The response from teacher unions has been nothing short of hysteria, led by Randi Weingarten at the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and Todd Wolfson at the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) - two of the most polarizing and political figures in teaching.
Secretary McMahon released a policy statement titled "National Call to Action to University Presidents and Governing Boards." I encourage you to read it. Few Americans would disagree with the call for universities to post policies on how they can achieve greater intellectual diversity and openness in both admissions and hiring.
Not surprisingly, the AFT and AAUP went into a full cardiac arrest at the notion that universities would adopt such policies, let alone work to restore integrity and balance to higher education.
In a public letter, they denounced the policy as "galling." The letter was a telling moment from the two organizations most responsible for the politicization of education.
The AFT and AAUP merged not long ago, destroying the AAUP's traditional role as a neutral advocate for academic freedom. Under Wolfson, the organization has become blatantly political, even abandoning its long apolitical stance and issuing its first political endorsement this year. It was for radical Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.
I recently debated Todd Wolfson, President of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), over the loss of institutional neutrality in higher education. In the debate, I raised AAUP's own abandonment of neutrality principles, which Wolfson acknowledged. While the viewers overwhelmingly supported a return to neutrality principles, Wolfson was undeterred.
The alliance with AFT and Weingarten is crushingly predictable. Weingarten personifies what I have called the "education cartel," where teacher unions receive massive contracts and pension agreements from Democratic allies and then turn around and send massive political contributions to those same allies. The losers in this symbiotic relationship are of course the students and their families.
Weingarten is "credited" with turning the teachers' union into an extension of the Democratic Party, often appearing at political rallies with her signature high-volume screeds:
As public support and revenue for both public education and higher education plummet, these figures are doubling down. The last thing that they want to see is the restoration of neutrality or balance. That is why a policy calling for such reforms is so anathema to them. These organizations are now political organizations that use their dues to pursue radical agendas.
I previously criticized the selection of Wolfson, who promised to make the AAUP more of a "fighting organization" for liberal causes. A Rutgers University anthropologist and former union leader, Wolfson is a political activist who doubled down on the ideological intolerance that now defines higher education.
As promised, the AAUP quickly became a more radical and activist organization. It adopted an anti-Israel boycott policy and unleashed attacks on Trump supporters as "fascists." It has targeted civics centers as conservative breeding grounds. Trinity College Professor Isaac Kamola, the director of the AAUP's Center for the Defense of Academic Freedom (CDAF), explains that they want to unleash "naming and shaming and discrediting and undermining the legitimacy" of such programs.
So, as trust in higher education hits new lows, the AAUP is accelerating that decline by doubling down on ideological bias and political activism. In reality, the AAUP represents only a small fraction of university professors but is often viewed as speaking for the teaching academy as a whole.
I have previously written about the similar liberal agenda of the American Bar Association despite plunging membership among lawyers. The ABA now represents just 17 percent of the bar.
The AAUP currently has roughly 50,000 members. There are an estimated 1.5 million university and college professors in the United States. Both the ABA and AAUP have become captive to the most ideological elements of their membership. That agenda has overwhelmed the original apolitical mission of these groups.
The loss of the AAUP as a neutral arbiter for academic freedom is tremendous. As Wolfson acknowledged in our debate, it was once a voice for neutrality, avoiding ideological and political causes. It was central to the articulation of neutrality principles and core academic freedom values. We need such an organization now more than ever.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution."
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 12:40