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The Mets and Juan Soto close out a three-game series against the Phillies on Sunday. 

Nolan McLean will help lead the Mets past the Phillies on Sunday in Philadelphia, Stitches predicts.

Borja Iglesias told Spanish media he hopes the moment passes quickly so he can forget about it.

Traders Stunned By Momentum Meltdown As Earnings Quality Problem Simmers Under The Surface

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

📈Technical Backdrop – Coiling Below The Record

Here is where the quiet-index story gets interesting for traders. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,457.69, and that put it right on top of its 50-day moving average near 7,464. Call it dead flat against the line. The index still sits about 6.8% above its rising 200-day average near 6,985, so the primary uptrend remains fully intact, and it is roughly 2% below the June 2 record high of 7,620.

Momentum on the index itself is neutral, not broken. The 14-day RSI reads 48.8, smack in the middle of its range and nowhere near oversold. The MACD is the wrinkle. It just rolled below its signal line for the first time since the April low, and the histogram flipped negative. That is a fresh bearish crossover. One crossover is not a sell signal, but it is exactly the kind of longer-term warning we watch for as a correction builds.

The contrast between the index and the factor is the whole point. The Momentum ETF, MTUM, fell about 6% on the week and printed a 14-day RSI of 41, far weaker than the broad market. The average stock barely flinched. The equal-weight S&P lost less than half a percent and actually tagged a fresh record high midweek, and the Russell 2000 held up better than the Nasdaq. When the cap-weighted index falls, but the median stock does not, the damage is narrow by definition.

So how do you trade it? The 50-day is the line in the sand. Therefore, a decisive hold keeps the burden of proof on the bears, and the first real test on a break sits at the mid-July range low near 7,300. I would not chase the semiconductor and high-beta names lower into a knife that is still falling, and I would not short a market whose average stock is making new highs. This is a spot to rebalance risk, not to place a directional bet. Hold 7,464, and the rotation stays healthy. Lose it on volume, and the correction earns a wider berth.

💰 Momentum Meltdown Sends A Warning

Every so often, the market hands you a week where the index and the internals tell opposite stories. This was one of them. The S&P 500 fell about 1.5%, a garden-variety pullback, while the momentum factor suffered its worst drawdown since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis. That gap is the entire story, and understanding it is the difference between panic-selling the wrong thing and using the rotation to your advantage. As I flagged two weeks ago in Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?, this rotation was coming.

The scale of this move is genuinely historic, and the qualifier matters. As noted above, the Goldman Sachs high-beta momentum basket fell roughly 24% in the first two weeks of July, the worst such stretch since April 2009. Furthermore, the Morgan Stanley tech momentum index registered a 17-day rate of change of -35%, the worst in its 27-year history. Goldman’s flagship momentum pair is now down about 33% from its highs and has broken below its own 200-day average, a drawdown that matches the late-2022 low. Those are numbers worth repeating for emphasis.

Here is the part that keeps this from being a catastrophe. That same high-beta momentum basket is STILL up about 16% for the year after peaking near +60%. This is a violent give-back of an enormous gain, not a wealth-destroying collapse. The single-stock casualties show where the crowd was hiding: in semiconductors.

It Is A Rotation, Not A Collapse

If money were fleeing the market, you would see it everywhere, but that is not the case. The equal-weight S&P 500 fell less than half a percent on the week and printed a new all-time high midweek, while defensive and cyclical value groups finished green. Energy led following the oil spike, and real estate, staples, and financials all gained. That is not what a market top looks like. That is capital rotating out of the most crowded corner and into everything else.

The leadership under the surface has quietly flipped. Look at what is working against what is breaking, and the rotation is obvious. Security-software names like Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, which benefit from AI adoption without the semiconductor bottleneck risk, are catching the bid alongside energy and the banks. The mega-cap AI generals held up far better than the speculative fringe, with Nvidia down under 4% and both Microsoft and Amazon actually positive on the week. The pain was surgical, not broad.

What Actually Broke The Trade

Four forces hit at once, which is why the move was so violent; the setup was a positioning problem. Momentum had been the undisputed king of 2026, and nearly everyone owned it, leaving no marginal buyer when selling started. The trigger came from leverage. In Asia, single-stock leveraged ETFs on names like SK Hynix had ballooned, and when the underlying prices dipped, those funds were forced to sell to maintain their 2x exposure, which fed a self-reinforcing unwind. Korea moved to halt new listings of these products midweek.

On top of that, China’s Kimi K3 release cracked the assumption that US AI leadership was unassailable, and the oil spike from renewed Iran tensions revived a macro risk the momentum crowd had stopped pricing. The June index-rebalancing that had provided a price-insensitive buyer for winners like SpaceX and Marvell was gone. Take away the buyer, add forced sellers, and you get a washout.

The lesson of every crowded-trade unwind is the same. The factor that leads on the way up leads on the way down, and the exit door is always narrower than the entrance.

Goldman’s own desk offers a hopeful footnote. Once the momentum factor drops more than 20% in a month, forward returns have tended to be positive, with a median gain near 4% over the following week and close to 6% over the following month. The path is rarely smooth, and next week’s reports are the swing factor. Notably, a violent factor unwind is often closer to an opportunity than to the start of a bear market. Yes, that is an optimistic case, but it is a real one to consider given the rash of negative headlines this past week.

The Earnings-Quality Problem Underneath The Rally

There is a deeper issue that the momentum crowd has been willing to ignore, and it goes to the quality of the earnings that are holding up the AI trade. Take Alphabet’s blockbuster first quarter. The headline was a record, but tens of billions of it came from mark-to-market gains on private stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX, not from the operating business. Stripping the paper gain would have caused the estimate to be missed. That is not a one-off quirk. Across the hyperscalers, a wave of AI capital spending is being depreciated over long schedules that assume these chips and data centers will earn their keep for years, thereby inflating near-term margins and quietly deferring the true cost.

We walked through that dynamic in Capex Spending On AI Is Masking Economic Weakness, and it is the reason next week’s reports carry so much weight. The moment the market decides to pay for cash flow and earnings quality rather than capex headlines, the most crowded and most expensive names carry the most risk. Momentum had been priced for perfection. Perfection is an expensive thing to own the moment the story starts to wobble.

Why There Could Be More To Go

It helps to separate two ideas. The momentum meltdown is the event, and the violent two-week repricing we just lived through. The momentum shift is the bigger thing, a change in market leadership away from the narrow band of high-beta and semiconductor names that carried 2026 and toward the broad market underneath. The first can end in a week. The second is a process, and history says leadership changes take months to resolve, not days. That distinction applies to patience here, and it is why I think more air can still come out before this is finished.

The math tells you why the shift may not be over. As discussed above, following the worst two weeks since 2009, the high-beta momentum basket is still up about 16% on the year. That is the give-back of a parabola, not a full reset. Positioning has been reduced, but it has not capitulated, and not a single US semiconductor is even oversold yet on a 14-day RSI basis. Washouts of this scale rarely resolve in one clean flush. They tend to arrive in waves, with sharp relief rallies that pull money back in right before the next leg lower.

The healthy read is that the average stock is doing fine while the crowd unwinds. The cautious read is that the unwind still has fuel in the tank. This is because the crowd is sitting on a full year of gains it may yet decide to protect. Both can be true at once. That tension is exactly why the tape has felt so violent under a calm surface.

The Macro Has Turned Against The Trade

Here is where this week’s other headline matters. In Inflation Will Be A Thing Of The Past, we covered Kevin Warsh’s first testimony to Congress. The message was not what a momentum trader wants to hear. Warsh told lawmakers the Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” He also pointedly refused to offer forward guidance, arguing that published projections only breed confirmation bias. June CPI actually showed prices falling 0.4% on the month, and yet the committee is still split on the odds of a rate hike in September, not a cut.

Now read that against this week’s tape. Oil just jumped roughly 14% on renewed Iran tensions, which threatens to undo the very disinflation that gave Warsh room to sound patient. A hawkish Fed with no rate cut on the horizon and no forward guidance to lean on is the opposite of the backdrop that inflated the momentum trade in the first place. The most expensive, longest-duration growth names need falling rates and easy liquidity to justify their multiples. Right now, they are getting neither, and policy uncertainty alone widens the risk premium the market demands to hold them.

None of this is a forecast of a bear market. It is a reminder that a leadership shift, once it begins, usually runs longer and further than the first move suggests. Here are both sides of the ledger, laid out honestly.

Weigh the calendar, too. We noted previously that the risk of a larger market correction (5-10%) is highest in August through October. That is particularly true given the upcoming mid-term elections. Those three months are historically the weakest stretch of the year anyway. However, the election uncertainty adds to that risk, and this unwind is landing right as we walk into it. That does not mean you sell everything and hide. It means you respect the shift. Therefore, keep tight risk controls on the crowded names, and let the earnings and the tape confirm the next move.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Next week, the Federal Reserve goes silent. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting puts the committee in its blackout window, so there are no Fed speakers to move the tape. That leaves two things in charge: the economic data and the start of mega-cap earnings, with the second being the main event.

Wednesday after the close is the night that matters. Alphabet, Tesla, and Texas Instruments all report at once, and Intel follows on Thursday evening. This is the first real referendum on the AI-capex story since the momentum trade cracked. Alphabet is the tell. The company has guided to roughly $175 billion of capital spending in 2026, and JPMorgan’s desk pegs 2027 buyside expectations for Google alone near $325 to $350 billion, well above a Street consensus closer to $250 billion. If the hyperscalers signal any hesitation on that spend, the chips that depend on it have further to fall. If they reaffirm it, the washed-out names finally get their catalyst.

The setup is loaded. Alphabet’s blowout first-quarter results were flattered by tens of billions in mark-to-market gains on its Anthropic and SpaceX stakes; stripping those out, the operating number would have missed by a hair. That is exactly the earnings-quality question we have been raising for months. The market will judge this print on margins and cloud growth, not on the headline number.

Ed Yardeni has framed the broader mood as a case of AI Fatigue, with investors starting to ask whether the trillion-dollar buildout will ever pay off. The Friday flash PMIs are the data highlight, since they are the first look at how business activity handled the July volatility and the oil spike. Everything else bends around Wednesday night. A clean capex message from Alphabet steadies the entire complex. Any wobble, and the momentum meltdown gets a second leg.

What Should Investors Do Now

This is a moment for discipline, not heroics. The rotation is healthy but not finished. Next week’s reports will determine whether the momentum names have found a floor. As we laid out last week in The Dollar Narrative Has Turned, the play into late July is to lean toward the washed-out mega-cap leaders rather than the extended names, and to define the exit at the earnings dates themselves. If Alphabet and the others confirm the capex and cash-flow worries when they report, you sell and move on. If estimates hold, the oversold snapback has room to run.

Keep capital preservation first. An index sitting on its 50-day with a neutral RSI is neither a screaming buy nor a screaming sell. It is a market telling you to rebalance, tighten your stops on the crowded names, and let the earnings do the talking. The momentum meltdown was a warning shot about what happens when everyone owns the same thing at the same time. The momentum shift it kicked off is the story that matters now, and it likely has further to run.

The thread to follow into next week is simple.

Money is not leaving the market. It is rotating hard, and the tape will not settle until the crowd finishes repositioning.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 09:20

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US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict

The escalation pathway in the renewed tit-for-tat conflict between the US and Iran is becoming increasingly alarming and has been underway for eight days.

US forces reportedly struck Qeshm Island and the southern Iranian cities of Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, while Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks targeting US bases and critical infrastructure across Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, according to Bloomberg, citing Iranian state media.

The latest escalation could open the door for Israel to rejoin the fight. Itamar Ben Gvir, an Israeli security cabinet minister, told listeners on Israeli radio that he hoped President Trump would strike Iran hard.

Iran's latest attacks moved beyond military targets to now civilian infrastructure, which has been troubling.

Kuwaiti Ministry of Electricity warned earlier today that its power and desalination plants have come under attack for the second straight day by Iranian projectiles.

BREAKING: Kuwait says power and water desalination plant attacked for second time in two days

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/jKP76o4RPX pic.twitter.com/5IoegG3wJv

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) July 19, 2026

US Central Command described the latest US strikes as seeking to reduce Tehran's offensive capabilities on the Strait of Hormuz that threaten commercial shipping and "swiftly punish" Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces behind the Jordan attack that killed two US soldiers and left another missing in action.

U.S. forces pound Iran for the eighth straight night as CENTCOM releases new footage following Iranian missile and drone attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed two U.S. service members. A third remains missing.

CENTCOM says forces "successfully hit Iranian military coastal… pic.twitter.com/0jc8TZBzdo

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 19, 2026

By now, the interim ceasefire deal signed by the US and Iran is in flames, as US forces have renewed their blockade of Iranian ports and the Trump team has tightened sanctions on Tehran's oil exports

An overnight report from AFP News stated:

Iran says nuclear plant being built attacked.

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said the United States attacked an under-construction nuclear power plant in Darkhovin, in the country's southwest.

Previous days US-Iran Wrap:

• State Department Issues "Worldwide Caution" As US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Into Regional Crisis

Polymarket: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Military Tit-For-Tat Escalation

• Two US service members were killed and another went missing in action during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks in Jordan on Friday; four others were evacuated to Jordanian hospitals.
• The US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight Saturday, hitting Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf and southern cities including Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, according to Iranian media.
• Iran suspended its commitments under the interim deal with the US as both sides continued exchanging strikes on infrastructure and military targets.
• Bahrain said it intercepted several Iranian aerial attacks on Sunday.
• Jordan evacuated Aqaba's airport and seaport due to a specific and credible threat, with the US embassy advising Americans to avoid both locations.

Hormuz Chokepoint Tensions

• Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four vessels attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unauthorized route; two were stopped after accidents and two turned back.
• Iran accused the ships of attempting to disrupt transit through the strait with "support from American terrorists" and said they had turned off their navigation systems.
• Iran rushed out approximately $6 billion of oil during a brief truce with the US in mid-June to mid-July, with around 20 Iranian tankers arriving off Malaysia's east coast, with China as the likely ultimate destination, according to analysts, per the Wall Street Journal.

Regional Impact & Kuwait Strikes Crisis

• Kuwait suffered some of its worst Iranian retaliatory attacks, with strikes on a vital oil facility causing significant damage and injuries, and a second power plant hit in as many days.
• Kuwait airport suspended flights and Kuwait Airways rescheduled the majority of its flights following the attacks.
• Iraq is using a large fleet of trucks to carry fuel through Syria to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly making Syria the Middle East's top export hub, accounting for more than a quarter of regional volumes.

Oil Market Woes  

• Renewed fighting is raising the risk of an oil price spike as global supply buffers have been worn thin, with emergency stockpile releases and reduced Chinese imports having previously helped avert a crisis when the Strait of Hormuz first closed in March.
• Concerns over re-escalation of the war pushed oil prices sharply higher following Iran's heavy attacks on Kuwait.

Ahead of US futures opening later today, IG's Weekend Oil and US Crude are up about 2%.

The IG oil market is a weekend CFD market that lets traders speculate on where WTI crude will reopen when regular futures trading resumes Sunday evening.

On Friday, Brent crude futures jumped 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil on track for its biggest weekly gain since April.

A must-read this weekend as Hormuz normalization dramatically slows:

• "We've Burned Through All Buffers": Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes

Bloomberg data show transits in the Strait of Hormuz come to a standstill …

Continued read:

• JPM: The Big Question Is No Longer About Hormuz And Oil, It's All About Refining And Russia

Professional subscribers can tap our new Marketdesk.ai portal to read the latest on energy and Hormuz.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:45

New users can sign up with the Polymarket promo code NYPMAX to qualify for a $50 bonus for the World Cup Golden Ball.

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French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

France’s Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), or the National Gambling Authority, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.

Prediction websites are considered illegal gambling, the ANJ said in a Friday press release.

The regulator said that Polymarket’s operations are not authorized in France and that advertising unauthorized gambling sites constitutes a criminal offense with fines of up to 100,000 euros ($114,000).

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, from elections and sporting events to economic data and geopolitical developments. Polymarket has surged in popularity over the past two years, with billions of dollars in trading volume, while drawing scrutiny from regulators over whether its event contracts constitute illegal gambling or unlicensed financial products.

Countries that blocked access to Polymarket include Singapore, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Ukraine, Brazil and Indonesia. At press time, Polymarket said it was geoblocked in 36 regions.

France’s gambling regulator first shared plans to block the platform in November 2024 for failing to comply with national gambling laws.

French gambling authority cites outcome manipulation concerns

France’s gambling authority said Polymarket boasts “addictive features” that are similar to regulated gambling offerings, but “amplified by the absence of the protective mechanisms found in the legal gambling market.”

It also cited potential outcome manipulation tied to some event contracts on Polymarket, adding:

“Some of the bets offered on this platform appeared to be rigged: for example, bets on the weather revealed that weather sensors may have been hacked.”

The cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into this matter in May 2026 and found a lack of identity verification, such as Know Your Customer checks.

Prediction markets have also drawn scrutiny from US regulators. On June 17, Kentucky sued five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms. At least 17 other states have followed suit.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued eight states, arguing they had interfered with the federal regulator’s exclusive authority over federally regulated event contracts. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:10

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Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence

In the latest development related to what some analysts have called the 'new Cold War' and nuclear saber-rattling between Russia and the West, Germany and France are planning a major nuclear exercise later this year.

The atomic drills were announced Friday, after a joint top-level meeting of the French and German governments near Cologne. "Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled. 

picture alliance/dpa

He detailed while at a press event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron that a "strategic steering group" established by the leading European allies would continue looking at deterrence in the future, with an eye on Russia.

"This is complementary to our nuclear participation and deterrence within NATO, which we still hold to," he added. He also previewed "a maneuver in the autumn held on the initiative of France" - while speaking of the Ukraine war.

"We will clarify together what form exactly this participation will take," he said.

France is newly positioning itself at the forefront of nuclear deterrence for Europe, a role that the United States has long assumed, and currently still does.

According to some of Macron's statements at the same event: "Patriotism, yes; nationalism, never. At a time when Europe is rearming, to think that each of us separately accumulating capabilities is the way history is going is absurd." More details have been offered in the following:

Mr Macron and Mr Merz began the defence council at Nörvenich air base beside a French Rafale and a German Eurofighter – a symbolic backdrop after the aircraft designed to replace them was scrapped.

Nuclear deterrence offers one field where the strained partnership can still move forward.

German troops would play a conventional supporting role and would not control French weapons. Berlin will also help develop radar and space-based systems for detecting ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

Currently the United States and the UK, which both maintain nuclear arsenals, form the core of NATO's nuclear deterrence strategy. While France also possesses nuclear weapons, it does not yet participate on a leadership level in NATO's nuclear planning group. The US military also contributes F-35, refueling aircraft, and other support planes. 

Germany's Chancellor Merz:

For the first time, I have accepted the offer made by the French President to jointly think about nuclear deterrence.

Historically speaking, General Charles de Gaulle had already offered the Federal Republic of Germany a French nuclear umbrella many… pic.twitter.com/lIug2JjqVB

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 17, 2026

Russia has not infrequently held its own strategic drills over the course of the last several years of war in Ukraine. It has also become the 'new normal' for Russia and Europe to hold rival conventional war games, amid threats, warnings and ongoing miliary flexing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:35

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Nearly Half Of Poles Now Want To Stop Arming Ukraine

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The reason is Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine since the start of their spiraling dispute sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.

Leading Polish conservative newspaper Rzeczpospolita published the results of a survey that it commissioned showing that 45.2% of Poles now want to stop arming Ukraine. The majority are from the opposition, which includes conservative and libertarian-nationalist (populist in American political parlance) groups who a separate survey recently showed could form a coalition government after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, and is almost three times larger than the 18.3% from December 2022.

Krzysztof Bosak, one of the populist Confederation’s co-leaders, is quoted as reaffirming his party’s consistent policy of supporting conditional aid to Ukraine that tangibly advances Polish interests. Its rapid growth in popularity per the second-mentioned survey above is likely due to the public realizing that Confederation was right all along about Ukraine amidst their country’s spiraling dispute with it that was sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.

This palpable sentiment is arguably responsible for why the conservative “Law & Justice” (PiS) opposition’s prime ministerial candidate boldly broke with this party’s leadership earlier in the week by calling on the EU to stop funding Ukrainian arms till it “enters the path of pro-human values.” PiS is also separately embroiled in a power struggle between co-founder Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki over the latter’s refusal to shutter his sub-group within the party.

The combination of these factors could lead to more disgruntled PiS supporters flocking towards Confederation, thus potentially turning the party in the senior partner in any coalition that could be formed after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, which could lead to serious changes in Polish foreign policy. The second survey that was hyperlinked to in the introduction shows that Confederation and the Confederation of the Polish Crown that earlier split from it have more support combined than PiS.

It’s therefore within the realm of political reality that the populists maintain their role as the country’s most powerful opposition force, especially if support for PiS continues declining while support for Confederation continues growing, with Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine being the reason. Rzeczpospolita’s report cites the Defense Ministry’s recently declassified statistics showing that the former PiS government gave Ukraine around €3.4 billion worth of military equipment from 2022-2023.

The National Security Bureau disclosed in early 2025 that Poland’s aid to Ukraine totaled 4.91% of its GDP by then (most going to refugees and the above statistics showing that the liberal coalition only sent around €350 million by mid-2026) and constituted hundreds of pieces of equipment. Although PiS has since hardened its approach towards Ukraine, just like its opponents did under public pressure, it could have preemptively averted Ukraine’s descent into an anti-Polish state had it attached strings to its aid.

For example, aid could have been sent only if Ukraine first allowed the full exhumation and proper reburial of the Volhynia Genocide’s victims, officially recognized and apologized for this war crime, and banned Banderism. That didn’t happen and now “Poland Finally Realizes The Geostrategic Challenge Posed By Ukraine”, thus further contextualizing why nearly half of Poles no longer want to arm what’s at this point their top regional rival, which also poses a latent security threat if it’s not soon denazified.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:00