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US Pulls Entire B-1 Supersonic Bombers From UK Base After Suspected Iran-Linked Terror Plot

The Wall Street Journal reported late Sunday afternoon that all US Rockwell B-1 Lancer supersonic bombers had been removed from Britain's RAF Fairford air base over mounting security concerns following a suspected terrorist plot against the facility one week ago.

The Department of War confirmed to the news outlet that all supersonic, variable-sweep-wing heavy bombers deployed to Fairford had returned to their home stations in the U.S.

"While operational security precluded us from confirming the movement of our assets and forces in real-time, we can acknowledge now that all U.S. bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford have redeployed to their home stations in the United States," the DoW said in a statement, adding that the bombers remained ready to deliver global strike capabilities from the US.

Reuters published more details about the suspected terror plot on Saturday, reporting that British counterterrorism police had detained a 25-year-old dual UK-Iranian national last week on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. The man has since been released.

"The investigation into the circumstances surrounding events in Gloucestershire is continuing," police said in a statement.

The terror plot investigation began after five British men in their 20s were arrested near the air base last Sunday.

Officers found petrol in the vans but no improvised explosive device. Police released the men on bail without charge, under stringent conditions.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the incident might have an Iranian link, while President Donald Trump alleged it was a big plan to cause a lot of damage at the base. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also suggested foreign involvement.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 08:30

Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury is something to watch going forward. 

Over the weekend, the "Unstable" co-creator took to his Instagram Stories to share Emily Dickinson's poem "Hope Is the Thing With Feathers."

Over the weekend, the "Unstable" co-creator took to his Instagram Stories to share Emily Dickinson's poem "Hope Is the Thing With Feathers."

"I don't think that attempting another execution is going to bring justice," Stephen Ferrell, an assistant federal defender, said.

"It's a huge bombshell."

An attorney for one of the "Cornell 7" has called on New York Attorney General Letitia James to step down from the investigation for being biased against the accused students.

Navarro: The Jobs Report Reveals Federal Reserve Election Interference

Authored by Peter Navarro via RealClearMarkets,

CNBC and Yahoo Finance called the jobs report a miss. Fox said it was lower than expected. More bad analysis from a Keynesian financial press that has shown extraordinary supply-side ignorance throughout the Trump 47 term.

The deeper story is indeed more complicated - and considerably more reassuring.

Start with the unemployment rate. It rose a tenth not because people lost jobs but because people came looking for them. The labor force participation rate jumped two tenths to 61.8 percent, well above expectations.

Behind the curtain, the share of prime-age Americans holding a job rose three tenths to 80.7 percent; for prime-age men, four tenths to 86.2 percent. When more people enter the labor force than the economy can hire in a single month, the unemployment rate rises. That is not weakness. That is Americans coming off the sidelines.

Now the headline number itself. Wall Street still reads payrolls through a Biden-era lens, when open borders swelled the labor force and the economy had to create well over 100,000 jobs a month just to stand still.

That world is gone. With the border secured and the population aging, the breakeven pace of job creation - the number that holds unemployment steady - has fallen to roughly 40,000 a month by most estimates, and the Dallas Fed puts it near zero. This month's 29,000 is well within the neighborhood of breakeven.

Now consider the composition: private employers added 46,000 jobs in September while government shed 17,000. Under Biden Wokenomics, government hiring padded the headline month after month. Under Trumpnomics, the private sector carries the load and the public payroll shrinks. That is exactly the right direction.

Then there is the industrial turn, which the headline - and the anti-Trump media - hides every month and which matters most. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs in September, bringing this year's gain to roughly 72,000, after the sector lost more than 200,000 jobs in the last two years of the Biden administration.

Ahead of those production jobs comes the construction that makes them possible. Nonresidential specialty trade contractors, the electricians, pipefitters and concrete crews who build factories, added 12,300 jobs in September and are up nearly 112,000 since January 2025.

The factory-construction numbers of 2025 and 2026 are the manufacturing payrolls of 2027 and 2028. Real fixed private investment, up 2.3 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, is running at a 6.9 percent annual rate this year.

And a MAGA White House - built on blue-collar America - loves this: the unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma has fallen two and a half points over the year to 4.3 percent, the lowest on record.

Moreover, initial jobless claims, measured against the size of the workforce, are the lowest since the data began in 1967. Employers are holding on to the workers they have.

Nominal weekly earnings for manufacturing workers are up 5 percent, too, over the year, nearly 6 percent for production and nonsupervisory workers, while construction workers' earnings are up 4.7 percent.

Against the latest CPI - 3.4 percent headline, 2.4 percent core - those gains are comfortably positive in real terms, roughly 1 to 2½ percent after inflation. Solid, and no sign of a wage-price spiral.

Yet the newly minted Warsh Fed hiked rates in September into the teeth of an oil shock, breaking the Greenspan-Bernanke-Navarro rule: watch the second-round effects of an energy spike before you attack the first round.

This jobs report is the second-round evidence. There is no demand-side inflation for a rate hike to cure, and NOTHING in Friday's report offers a reason to tighten again in October.

Which raises the question: who is really running the Fed? The Trump-appointed chairman, who certainly must know better than to hike rates now? Or is Warsh leading from behind, appeasing a group of partisan anti-Trump Fed governors?

Remember that on September 18, 2024 - 48 days before Election Day - the Fed cut the federal-funds target by 50 basis points, from 5.25-5.50 percent to 4.75-5.00 percent. It was the first rate cut since March 2020. It was larger than the quarter-point move most forecasters expected, and it was a blatant attempt to help a hapless Kamala Harris beat Donald John Trump.

Now the Fed is interfering again, this time in the midterm elections. The September 16 hike has come again 48 days before Election Day - the same 48 days as in 2024. How other than politics do you explain a Fed rate hike on the eve of an election unsupported by the data and in flagrant violation of the Greenspan-Bernanke-Navarro rule?

There, I said it. And it damn well needs to be said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 07:45

Maybe, after a preseason of optimism that revived a trajectory, it’ll be a different ending for Deonte Banks after all. Maybe, after a similar preseason of optimism that revived a similar trajectory, it’ll be different for these Giants under John Harbaugh after all, too. Because imagine this scene playing out last year. Imagine Banks —...

The actor insisted in his upcoming memoir, "One Helluva Ride," that he was "never a f--king sex addict" despite previous reports he went to rehab.

The actor insisted in his upcoming memoir, "One Helluva Ride," that he was "never a f--king sex addict" despite previous reports he went to rehab.

The White House confirmed it is aware of a suspected plague outbreak in Russia and is “monitoring the situation” after a young lab worker was killed and some 200 others forced into quarantine.

Watch out: The ham-handed Mamdani approach to the housing market is about to impose chaos on select neighborhoods in the name of social justice. City Hall just flagged a dozen, mostly higher-income community districts across the five boroughs as shirking their duty to “produce” more affordable housing; they’ll now be fast-tracked for new projects as...

Left Under Pressure: Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula In Brazil As Spain's Sanchez Calls Snap Elections Amid Turmoil

Political developments in Brazil and Spain overnight are adding volatility to certain overseas markets, highlighting mounting pressure on failing left-wing regimes. 

In Brazil, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round lead over socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva significantly strengthens his position heading into the Oct. 25 runoff. A Bolsonaro victory would shift Latin America's largest GDP to the right, reinforcing a broader regional once-in-a-generation realignment from unhinged leftist regimes to common-sense right-wing governments.

Brazil's political pendulum is swinging right after years of toxic socialism, and investors are cheering on Monday morning: 

BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS

• Banco Bradesco: +10%
• Itau Unibanco Holding: +11%
• NU Holdings: +9.5%
• Inter & Co.: +11%
• Banco Santander (Brasil): +3.5%
• PagSeguro Digital: +14%
• StoneCo: +12%
• PicS: +6.2%

STEEL, METAL & MINING

• Companhia Siderurgica Nacional: +9.5%
• Vale: +6.5%
• Gerdau S.A.: +7.0%

AERO, OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS

• XP Inc.: +15%
• Ambev: +8.4%
• Embraer: +6.3%
• MercadoLibre: +7.0%
• Telefonica Brasil: +8.1%
• Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais: +7.0%
• Companhia Paranaense de Energia: +5.8%
• Petroleo Brasileiro: +7.0%
• Ultrapar Participacoes: +7.2%
• Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP): +9.7%
• TIM S.A.: +6.8%

Bolsonaro captured 47% of the vote against Lula's 45.2%, with counting completed, as conservative allies dominated races across the country.

Via Bloomberg:

Polymarket:

"The magnitude of the first-round win by Flávio will come as a surprise to financial markets, and given the light positioning by foreigners, I would expect a meaningful rally in the near term as investors begin to price in a change in government, a shift in policy direction, a potential reform agenda and a reduction in fiscal risk. From a stock perspective, watch SOEs, beta and rate-sensitive names as the market starts to price in a faster reduction of interest rates in 2027," UBS analyst Justin Wensek wrote, adding, "Market reaction: Risk-on, blue-sky scenario starting Monday."

Goldman Sachs one-delta desk head Rich Privorotsky noted, "Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0%, Lula 45.2%… substantially better for the market than expected. Brazil should be up a lot today and the market will now front-load the second round. Worth looking through the 2nd-order Brazil plays across Europe. At least initially this should be supportive for BRL, domestic equities and risk assets across the geography."

A Bolsonaro victory later this month would cement Latin America's largest economy's rightward shift and politically transform the entire continent in just a few short years. It's fascinating to watch this shift unfold as USAID funding has dried up.

Then, in Spain, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for Nov. 29 after parliament rejected an emergency housing package, deepening a political crisis fueled by anti-left sentiment, the migrant invasion of Ceuta, and corruption scandals.

Spain's 10-year government bond yield was little changed at 4.08%, while its spread over German debt widened three basis points to 65 basis points. The euro fell 50bps to $1.1197 amid broader concerns over fiscal and political risks in the currency bloc.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron's approval rating has collapsed amid unrest involving far-left groups and migrants, adding to his political vulnerability and strengthening Marine Le Pen ahead of next year's presidential election.

From Brazil to Spain and France, the common understanding here is mounting voter anger at the socialist and left-wing regimes that have been nothing but disastours for the West. With USAID funding curtailed and progressive policies facing a growing backlash, the right has taken advantage of an open window to gain political ground and turn frustration into electoral gains. 

America has been funding communist movements around the world for a century. Once you understand that, modern history starts to make a lot more sense.

— John Birch Society (@The_JBS) October 5, 2026

Taken altogether, the West is pushing back against socialist and pro-China governments. Latin America's full rightward shift hinges on Brazil's runoff results later this month, while Europe has seen right-wing political movements gain ground, especially in Germany with AfD's rise. Nomura expects that Europe "lurches" right over the next year or so of elections. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 07:20

Wall Street titan Bridgewater Associates’ has called for for aggressive regulatory action on AI giants that could soon control broad swaths of the American economy.

Fort Hood was not a “tragedy,” but a preventable act of jihad — because the US government saw the truth about Islamist violence as being more dangerous than the violence itself.

Your future 80-year-old self is keeping score — and you may be racking up points in all the wrong places.

Iran "Decision Week": Trump Teases "Easy Way Or Hard Way" As Tankers Burn, Rial Craters And Tehran's Oil Minister Quits

Seven months into the war, the Iran story has settled into a familiar loop: Tehran sets conditions, Washington rejects them, a tanker catches fire, oil stays at $100, repeat... then a modest de-escalation before markets open on Monday morning and reversal around Friday's closer. 

This weekend, though, felt different. Nearly every piece of the puzzle moved at once, and the man at the center of it all made clear that he has a decision to make.

"We have a decision that I'll make about Iran. Iran's been decimated. So the only question is, it'll either be the easy way or the hard way," President Trump told reporters outside the White House on Saturday. Asked what was coming, he offered the kind of non-answer that tends to precede actual answers, or even more non-answers: "If I told you, you'd have a major story, right? But you'll see."

Here is what happened over the weekend, and what to watch in the week ahead.

The Camp David War Council

The "you'll see" makes more sense in light of what happened on Friday. CBS News confirmed that the administration's entire Iran brain trust met at Camp David: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, special envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine. Axios first reported the unannounced session, which Vance chaired. Two items were on the agenda: the Iran war, and the Saudi-Houthi war in Yemen that is now spilling into global oil routes (more below).

The White House has not said what was decided. One person familiar with the meeting told Axios that "things were decided or at least deeply discussed," which is a remarkably candid way of saying nothing, right about par for the course for an Axios "scoop." For context, the last time this crowd quietly decamped to the Maryland mountains to talk Iran was in June 2025. You may recall what followed (spoiler: it involved B-2s).

Meanwhile, the military is moving into position regardless. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group are heading to the Middle East with about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, due by the end of October. Bloomberg notes that this could give the US three carrier strike groups in the region, a concentration not seen since the opening phase of the Iraq war in 2003. Hegseth, for his part, called the US blockade of Iranian ports "ironclad."

We flagged the build-up when the third carrier was first announced in "Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast" (Oct 1). Trump himself had been dropping hints for days:

*TRUMP ON IRAN: YOU WILL SEE THINGS HAPPENING VERY SOON *TRUMP: HISTORIC FLOWS OF OIL OUT OF HORMUZ IN LAST 3 DAYS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

On timing, Trump told TIME last week that heavier strikes are "possible" after the Nov. 3 midterms. And according to Bloomberg, Iranian officials themselves see little chance of a deal before the vote and a "high chance of escalation" after it. So "decision week" may yet turn into "decision month" (this is still Washington, after all).

Bombers Out Of Britain

The other military headline came from England. The Pentagon confirmed on Sunday that all US bombers deployed to RAF Fairford, a dozen B-1Bs that had been used for strikes on Iran, have returned to their home stations in the United States. The move came a week after several men were arrested near the base on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. The WSJ first reported the redeployment.

"While operational security precluded us from confirming the movement of our assets and forces in real-time, we can acknowledge now that all US bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford have re-deployed to their home stations in the United States," a Pentagon spokesman wrote, per Reuters.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Wednesday that Britain has "strong indications" Iran was involved in the plot. US intelligence describes an IRGC-linked handler recruiting British citizens for a multi-stage operation, starting with a diversion near the base. Trump said the plotters had planned "big damage," while Rubio pointed to the "hands of a foreign actor." Tehran called the accusations baseless and summoned the British ambassador. Five British suspects, plus a sixth with dual British-Iranian citizenship who was arrested in London, have all since been released on bail. Some UK officials have also questioned whether the plot was as sophisticated as US accounts make it sound.

The Pentagon insists that moving the bombers does not reduce its long-range strike capability. That is probably true: B-1s can reach Iran from the continental US with aerial refueling. It just takes a lot longer, and nobody has to worry about who is loitering near the fence line. Make of that what you will.

Two More Tankers Hit, And Hormuz "Will Not Be Opened"

On the water, the attacks continued. On Sunday the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) reported two more tankers struck by unknown projectiles (CNBC). One was hit inside the Strait of Hormuz and suffered engine-room damage. The other, a crude carrier roughly four nautical miles east of Oman, was hit on its port side. All crew were reported safe and no environmental damage was reported. By SBS's count, that makes at least four incidents in October alone. The first was the 2.5-million-barrel supertanker set ablaze off Oman on Thursday, which Iran's Fars said was using an "unauthorized" route.

Fars reports that a 2.5 mm barrel supertanker that was traveling through the Strait of Hormuz "illegally" was hit 8 kilometers off the coast of Oman and is burning https://t.co/BzV5N87ZEi

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 1, 2026

UKMTO's latest weekly report counts 91 incidents of damage to vessels since February. Since July 6, 31 of 48 projectile strikes have happened along the southern Omani route, the US-facilitated corridor that much of the recovering Gulf traffic now uses.

Hours before the latest strikes, Iran restated its terms. Per Reuters, parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said:

"The position of the Islamic Republic of Iran is completely clear and firm, and the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until our seven conditions, based on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, are met... [Washington] must understand that the period of dragging out the (diplomatic) process and dictating one-sided demands is over." (emphasis ours)

For anyone who has lost track, these are the seven conditions Tehran presented in September: (1) lift the maritime blockade; (2) restore Iran's frozen assets; (3) lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports; (4) halt all US actions "under the pretext of threats and military operations"; (5) end the war on Iran and its regional allies; (6) withdraw US forces from areas around Iran's borders; and (7) pay compensation for war damage and commit not to interfere with Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities. Translation: everything, plus reparations. So it is perhaps not a shock that Trump "promptly rejected" the seven-day reopening plan built on these terms.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that the US counter-proposal, relayed via Qatar, is "more or less in line with their previous positions, specifically on the nuclear issue." He added that Tehran's focus "in this stage is the issue of the Strait of Hormuz," and denied that Iran had offered UN inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. One official briefed on the talks told Reuters that the dispute is about the sequencing of steps, not their content. Meanwhile, FM Abbas Araqchi warned that if the US "again move[s] towards military solutions, we are more prepared than before."

"Iran Zero": The Blockade Bites

The irony is that the strait Iran is "keeping shut" is increasingly open to everyone except Iran. As we laid out in "Gulf Exports Roar Back To Pre-War Levels, Goldman Says" (Sep 30), Goldman's commodity strategists estimate that Persian Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports," have effectively recovered to their 2025 average. Saudi Arabia led the rebound... while Iran fell below 20% of its 2025 level.

In this weekend's update for clients (available here for pro subs), Struyven, co-head of Goldman's global commodities research, put the latest number at 23.6mb/d, about 4mb/d of which is estimated dark exports. He added that "the data show no seaborne crude exports from Iran in September." JPMorgan, cited by Bloomberg, estimates Middle East crude shipments are back to 17.5mb/d, or 98% of pre-war levels. According to Bloomberg tanker tracking, Saudi crude exports jumped from 3.4mb/d in August to roughly 6.1mb/d in September.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kept score in our earlier post "First Time In History": Bessent Says Iran Faces Zero Oil Revenue As Tanker Loadings Collapse: "barrels out of the Strait: U.S. about 1.1 billion, Iran zero... For the first time in history... they will have no oil on the water this week. They will have no revenue."

Which brings us to the man whose job was to produce that revenue.

The Oil Minister Who Had No Oil To Sell

Iran's oil minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned on Sunday. State media said the reasons were "personal." Hamid Bovard, chief executive of the National Iranian Oil Company, takes over as acting minister.

*IRAN’S OIL MINISTER MOHSEN PAKNEJAD RESIGNS: PRESS TV *IRAN PRESIDENT NAMES HAMID BOVARD ACTING OIL MINISTER:PRESS TV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2026

Mehdi Tabatabaei, communications deputy in the president's office, told state TV that Paknejad had resigned "a long time ago" and that President Pezeshkian accepted it at Paknejad's insistence. The timing is still remarkable. Just hours before the news broke, Paknejad was quoted by state media insisting that "revenues of the oil that we have sold are still coming and that will continue, God willing." When an oil minister leans on divine intervention for cash flow, the cash flow is probably not great.

The Rial: 2.7 Million And Counting

The clearest scorecard of the economic war is Iran's currency. On the open market the rial has fallen to a record low of about 2.7 million per dollar, and the euro topped 3 million rials for the first time (per Iran International). That is despite a central bank plan to inject $2 billion of banknotes, with the first $1 billion sold through banks at up to $10,000 per ID holder. Official year-over-year inflation has hit a record 89.8% (in reality it is much higher), and at the current rate the monthly minimum wage of 166 million rials works out to roughly $66.

Bloomberg calculates that the rial has lost about 25% against the dollar in the past two months alone. Readers who were with us for "Iran's Deadline Expires Today": Tehran Threatens Renewed Attacks As Blockade Bites, Rial Collapses will recognize that the slide is accelerating rather than leveling off. Bessent calls the collapse proof that the sanctions campaign is working. Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh says "predictions of collapse repeatedly proved wrong" and blames "psychological pressure." Both may well be true, which is what makes Tehran's next move so hard to call.

Kuwait University's Bader Al-Saif put the dilemma well to Bloomberg: "Everyone has a breaking point, and Iran is no exception... The irony is that such pressure can yield opposing responses: concessions or a preemptive strike."

Meanwhile In Yemen: Oil Advances As Traders Track Saudi-Backed Offensive

As if one war weren't enough, a second front reopened on Sunday. Yemen's Saudi-backed government launched a major offensive to recapture all Houthi-held territory. Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al-Alimi vowed to fight "until the country is liberated from the grip of the terrorist militia." According to Reuters, the Saudis are leading the air campaign while Yemeni forces fight on the ground, and the US is already providing intelligence.

The stakes are about oil as much as territory. Last month's Houthi offensive captured the Bab el-Mandeb strait and some 150km of Red Sea coast, the very bypass route Riyadh has been using to get crude out without getting blasting for shipping through Hormuz. On Sunday the Houthis responded by claiming missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais, saying they caused major fires. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the claims. We covered the opening shot in "In The Name Of God": Yemen Leader Orders All-Out Offensive Against Iran-Backed Houthis.

Oil noticed. Brent rose 81 cents to $103.06 in early Asian trading Monday and WTI rose to $91.57. December Brent was already up almost 5% last week, even though OPEC+ agreed to keep November quotas unchanged and the G7 announced a release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel. The world's largest crude exporter is now fighting a ground war on its southern border while its Gulf coast exports run through a strait it doesn't control. That is not a recipe for cheaper oil.

Regular readers know we have argued since March that the Hormuz bypasses (Fujairah, Yanbu and the Saudi East-West pipeline) would become the war's main battleground. The Houthi push on Bab el-Mandeb is the darker version of that call: Iran's proxies don't need to close Hormuz if they can close the exit. Abu Dhabi is reading from the same playbook (See "Zero Hormuz": Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Readies Tens Of Billions To Turn Fujairah Into Hormuz Bypass).

Why Is Oil Still $100? Goldman Explains

That is the question Goldman's commodity desk says it keeps getting. Gulf exports are back to 2025 levels, global inventories are still above early-2025 levels (when Brent was $75), and Goldman Research sees the market roughly balanced in September. Desk strategist Thomas Evans answered in Sunday's Weekly Commodity Thoughts (available to pro subs):

"The physical story has eased; the risk premium has not... Futures and spreads sit near local highs because the market continues to price substantial risk premium - we'd put it at roughly $20-25/bbl. That premium is justified here, because the balance delta matters: we entered this conflict with inventories on the highs and ample spare capacity; we now sit at record-low global stocks (ex-OECD commercial), with spare capacity of uncertain/at risk availability... The relevant risk is an attack taking Gulf flows back below 50% inside a few days - against a far thinner buffer. Stocks and price go non-linear once thresholds break." (emphasis ours)

The positioning detail matters more. For the first time in this conflict, Evans says, specs are buying outright delta instead of calls: "Many macro books are structured to perform if the crisis eases but bleed badly if oil spikes toward $130 - effectively short oil in the tail." In other words, a large chunk of the macro community is positioned for the "easy way." It is worth keeping that in mind when a president keeps saying "or the hard way."

Jerome Dortmans, Goldman's global co-head of oil and products trading, was blunter on the bank's Weekend Macro Call:

"My view remains that the ability for Iran to disrupt the flows out of the Strait is significant... And there's a part of this that thinks they are allowing these barrels flow out, for whatever reason... But I would think it would be too complacent to think that this is going to be the regular state of the Strait... the headline that they're bringing a third carrier group into the region and 10,000 more Marines.. is certainly not going to be something that the Iranians are going to ignore."

On the research side, Struyven is sticking with Goldman's base case that "Brent prices moderate to $85/bbl by year-end and to $80 in 2027." He adds that "we still worry about renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure, which could cause significant upside to prices." Sam Dart, his co-head, points out that the LNG recovery lags far behind oil. Hormuz LNG crossings are running at only 21% of pre-war levels, and if Gulf LNG exports stay stuck near 25% through the winter, Goldman estimates that European TTF gas would need to rise above €100/MWh.

Bloomberg's own explainer lands in the same place. Global stockpiles of about 4.3 billion barrels are down more than 400 million barrels since March (Energy Aspects) and at a five-year low. Tanker rates top $1.2 million a day for the Persian Gulf to China run. And with bond yields at 2002 highs, traders are once again using oil as an inflation hedge. BofA's economists summed up the mood in their Global Economic Weekly ("The fog of war"): "oil flows are normalizing in the Middle East, but Brent keeps trading above $100 per barrel... Something does not add up."

Decision Week: Easy Way Vs. Hard Way, Priced

So what is each path worth? BofA's commodity team, in Friday's Oil Gusher (also available to pro subs), raised its 2H26 Brent baseline to $95 (from $83) on the view that "skirmishes seem likely to continue into yearend." Its scenario tree maps neatly onto Trump's binary:

• Deal / back to the MoU ("less likely"): flows of more than 10mb/d resume; Brent averages $83 in 2H26 and $75 in 2027.
• Skirmishes continue (baseline): intermittent flows of 5mb/d; Brent averages $95 in 2H26 and $80 in 2027.
• Back to intense combat ("unlikely"): Brent goes to $120 in both 2H26 and 2027.
• War hits energy assets (tail risk): Brent averages $150 in 2H26 and $150+ in 2027, with ICE gasoil at $300.

Brent at around $103 is pricing something between "skirmishes" and "combat," which is about where the Camp David attendees appear to be. Here's what to watch this week:

• Trump's "decision." The president has now said "you'll see" at least three times in five days. The Camp David readout, or the lack of one, is the main event.
• Tehran's reply. Baghaei says "additional points" still have to go back to Washington through Qatar. Watch for any movement on sequencing, which is the real sticking point.
• Yemen. The Houthis are advancing on the last road between Taiz and Aden. Any confirmed damage at Riyadh or Khurais, or a stalled Saudi push near Bab el-Mandeb, puts Goldman's "below 50% inside a few days" scenario in play.
• The southern Omani route. At least four tanker strikes since Thursday. If UKMTO keeps reporting at this pace, the "dark export" recovery in Goldman's chart above will be tested.
• Tehran's home front. With an acting oil minister, a rial at 2.7 million and inflation near 90%, the next rial print matters as much as the next tanker report.
• Macro crosswinds. FOMC minutes (Wednesday), 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions, and China's return from Golden Week on Thursday with October fuel exports suspended. In a market where Goldman says oil is "tracking rates far more tightly than usual," these matter for crude too.

Bottom Line

Bloomberg's best summary of the standoff came from the Chatham House associate fellow Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi: "Both sides generally want an agreement, but they are moving further apart rather than closer." Iran's leverage over Hormuz is fading, its currency is in freefall and its oil minister just walked out the door. That is exactly what makes the "easy way" more likely, and the "hard way" more dangerous. Tehran's hardliners, as one former US intelligence official told Bloomberg, "are betting that they can absorb more domestic pain and wait out US engagement in the region."

Meanwhile, the oil market, which entered this war with full tanks and ample spare capacity, now has neither. Goldman's desk puts the risk premium at $20-25/bbl, and the macro crowd is positioned for it to shrink. If Trump picks door number two, that premium will look cheap. We'll know soon enough. After all, we've been told by the president, "you'll see."

Much more in the full Goldman Weekly Commodity Thoughts and BofA Oil Gusher notes, available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 06:55

Vistra In Line For $4 Billion Nuclear Loan As Washington’s Lending Spree Continues

The Trump administration plans to offer Vistra roughly $4 billion in loans to uprate an additional 433 MW from its Perry and Davis-Besse plants in Ohio and Beaver Valley in Pennsylvania, Bloomberg reported Friday. Energy Secretary Chris Wright could announce the package Monday during a visit to the Perry plant. 

Earlier this year, Meta signed a deal with Vistra for electricity from the same three power plants. The 20-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) cover 2,176 MW of existing generation and another 433 MW from planned uprates across those three plants. 

None of this should surprise anyone who remembers Wright’s promise that nuclear would receive the biggest share of the DOE loan office’s financing.

“By far the biggest use of those dollars will be for nuclear power plants,” he said last November. DOE reported that their Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) office had over $250 billion in available lending authority in July.

The EDF (previously the Loan Program Office) is on the warpath to fulfill Wright’s prophecy, having already financed three reactor restarts so far: 

• $1.5 billion for Holtec’s Palisades
• $1 billion for Constellation’s Crane
• $1.9 billion for NextEra’s Duane Arnold

Then there’s Southern Company’s package of up to $26.5 billion. Southern’s loans went to multiple generation plants, including gas and hydro, but money also went to subsidiaries Georgia Power and Alabama Power for nuclear uprates and license renewals.

EDF also announced $17.5 billion in conditional commitments over the summer for long-lead equipment supporting ten AP1000s from Westinghouse.

Hundreds of billions of dollars are still anticipated to be utilized for achieving Trump's goal of quadrupling nuclear generation in the country by 2050.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 06:55

Europe's Soaring Gas Bill Is Sending Utilities Back To Coal

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

Europe's energy crisis isn't over. Gas prices remain punishingly high across the continent as Europeans stare down the barrel of a long winter.

In response to back-to-back-to-back energy crises stemming from Europe's continued reliance on imported liquefied natural gas against the backdrop of ongoing global geopolitical volatility, Europe's leaders are pushing to diversify the bloc's energy mix. While this means that Europe is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity, it also marks a significant return to the world's dirtiest fossil fuel - coal.

Earlier this year, when the United States and Israel began an offensive in Iran and thereby instigated the disruption of one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trades, Europe awakened to realize that it had sleepwalked into yet another energy crisis - its third in just four years. "We swore we'd learn. We promised things would change, but here we are," a 'highly frustrated European diplomat' was recently (anonymously) quoted by the BBC.

"Instead of concentrating on much-needed long-term plans - about how to make Europe more competitive in this increasingly volatile world, [European] prime ministers and presidents are now in a panic over [energy] prices, worried about angry voters and scrambling for short-term solutions," the source continued. "Just like the crisis after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Different conflict. Same European divisions; same dilemmas over energy. We can't keep going round in these circles. Something's got to give."

Now, half a year after the outbreak of the war in Iran and the initial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Europe is still grappling with the fallout as gas prices remain brutally high. Just this month, gas prices hit their highest mark in three years, soaring above €80 ($90.98) per megawatt hour.

Prices are so high, in fact, that coal-fired power has become cheaper than gas-fired power in Europe for the first time in years. This calculus has pushed many European nations, and especially the European Union's largest economy, Germany, back to coal. And, worryingly, experts contend that that trend will continue for years to come.

"Coal is expected to remain cheaper than gas for power generation through next year and potentially until March 2028," Reuters reported earlier this week, based on a conversation with Marta Wroniszewska, an analyst at Veyt. "Longer-dated gas prices indicate traders expect supply constraints to persist."

However, there are notable limits to coal's growth potential in Europe. Years of policy aimed at phasing down and phasing out coal have left the continent with dramatically fewer coal-fired power plants than it had previously. In 1990, the European Union derived more than a third of its electricity production from coal. By 2025, that share had fallen to just 9.2 percent, according to data from Eurostat. So while Europe's remaining coal plants will receive a windfall from the current gas prices, there is a ceiling to coal's potential rebound in the region.

Outside of Europe, however, it's a different story. Globally, coal is still the single-biggest source of power production. And while Europe is shutting down its coal-fired capacity, many emerging economies are continuing to build theirs up, with particularly strong growth from the Philippines, Indonesia, and other rapidly developing countries across Asia. Not coincidentally, this was also the region hit hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

While coal is cheap, abundant, and seen as a critical tool for enabling economic development in poor countries, the continuously extending timeline of coal's reign presents trade-offs that far outweigh the benefits. Coal is the single largest driver of global warming, responsible for about 40 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions. However, it's not all bleak - coal's comeback is happening in tandem with a major global increase in clean energy resources. Increasingly, renewable energies are being adopted for their role in a more energy-secure future, and are seen as a critical buffer against the next global energy crisis.

Unlike natural gas, oil, and coal, "Wind and solar cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or shut off by a foreign power," David Frykman, General Partner at Stockholm-based venture capital group Norrsken, wrote in an op-ed for Fortune earlier this year. "Every terawatt-hour of domestic renewable generation is a terawatt-hour that no adversary can weaponize."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/05/2026 - 06:30