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Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Warsh Testifies, China Data, And Earnings Galore

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Warsh Testifies, China Data, And Earnings Galore

As well as two epic World Cup semi-finals before that, and the start of the Open golf it’s a packed week ahead in markets, writes DB's Jim Reid.

The headline events are tomorrow’s US CPI and Wednesday’s US PPI, alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s first Humphrey–Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (tomorrow) and the Senate Banking Committee (Wednesday). Elsewhere, key data includes China’s Q2 GDP and their monthly data dump (Wednesday) and the UK’s May monthly GDP (Thursday) as well as the announcement of a new leader of the ruling UK Labour Party as a special conference on Friday.

Let's run through the key details of the week ahead.

Front and centre is tomorrow’s US CPI report. DB economists expect lower gas prices to pull headline CPI down by -0.16% (vs. +0.47% in May), with core at +0.23% (vs. +0.21% previously). On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected to fall from 4.25% to 3.81%, while core eases only marginally by 2bps to 2.83%.

Wednesday’s PPI will help complete the picture for core PCE. DB economists’ forecast is for a +0.23% increase (vs. +0.32% last month), which would see the year-over-year rate decline by 3bps to 3.38%. Within the details, the price index for portfolio management and investment advice will be worth watching, particularly given the boost from May’s equity rally.

Turning to the rest of the data calendar, Thursday’s June US retail sales and Friday’s industrial production will feed into estimates for Q2 real GDP growth. The preliminary University of Michigan survey (52.0 expected at DB vs. 49.5) on Friday will also be in focus, particularly inflation expectations, which have started to moderate from a high level after recent energy-driven increases.

After a relatively quiet spell for Fed speakers, this week brings a wave of communication ahead of the blackout period starting at the end of the week. Governor Waller begins today with a speech at NYABE. Chair Warsh follows with his testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, while additional commentary comes after the CPI release (Governor Cook on Wednesday, and Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan, and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid on Friday). This week effectively represents the final window for policymakers to signal their thinking ahead of the July FOMC meeting. Reid expects Warsh to broadly stick to recent messaging and avoid firm guidance on near-term policy moves. In contrast, Waller has historically been more explicit about their reaction function, so today’s speech will be closely scrutinised for clues on their preferred policy path—even though it arrives before the CPI data.

Staying with the global theme, central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday, no change expected) and the Bank of Korea (Thursday, DB forecast a +25bp hike) will also be in focus. In China, growth is expected to slow to 4.4% YoY in Q2 (from 5% in Q1), with June activity data released alongside. More detail is available in our Chinese economists’ full week-ahead note here. Finally, the UK reports May monthly GDP on Thursday, the day before Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour Party leader, ahead of him officially taking the PM reins a week today and tapping into the England World Cup winning celebrations. Oh wait this must be another major hallucination.

And just to keep everyone busy, Q2 US earnings season kicks off tomorrow with results from five major US banks. Q1 marked the strongest non-recessionary rebound since the late 1990s, so the bar is high. ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday) should also provide an early read on global tech trends. On earnings, tomorrow features JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley alongside ASML, Johnson & Johnson and BlackRock, offering a useful cross-sector snapshot. Thursday is especially busy, with TSMC, Netflix, General Electric and UnitedHealth reporting across tech, industrials and healthcare. By Friday, attention shifts to European names including Volvo, Sandvik and Saab, rounding out the global picture.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 13

  • Data: US June federal budget balance, Germany May current account balance
  • Central banks: Fed's Bowman and Waller speak, ECB's Schnabel speaks, BoE's Pill speaks

Tuesday July 14

  • Data: US June CPI, NFIB small business optimism, May total net TIC flows, China June trade balance, Japan May capacity utilisation, Germany June wholesale price index
  • Central banks: Fed Chair Warsh testimony before House Financial Services Committee, Fed's Barr, Cook, Bowman and Goolsbee speak, BoE's Bailey speaks
  • Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

Wednesday July 15

  • Data: US July Empire manufacturing index, June PPI, China Q2 GDP, June retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, Japan May core machine orders, Eurozone May industrial production, Italy May general government debt, Canada June existing home sales, May manufacturing sales
  • Central banks: Bank of Canada decision, Fed Chair Warsh testimony before Senate Banking Committee, Fed’s Beige Book, Fed's Cook, Williams and Musalem speak, ECB's Nagel and Panetta speak
  • Earnings: ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Progressive, Bank of New York Mellon

Thursday July 16

  • Data: US July NAHB housing market index, New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, June retail sales, pending home sales, May business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK May monthly GDP, Italy May trade balance, Eurozone May trade balance
  • Central banks: Fed's Logan and Schmid speak, Bank of Korea decision
  • Earnings: TSMC, UnitedHealth, General Electric, Netflix, ABB, Abbott, Intuitive Surgical, Prologis, Atlas Copco, State Street, Publicis Groupe, Alcoa

Friday July 17

  • Data: US June industrial production, import price index, export price index, housing starts, building permits, capacity utilisation, July University of Michigan survey, Italy May current account balance, ECB May current account, Canada May international securities transactions
  • Central banks: Fed's Jefferson speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks
  • Earnings: Volvo, Sandvik, Saab

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week including Chairman Warsh's semiannual Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday, July 13 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
  • 05:25 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks:  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at a Bank Policy Institute roundtable on modernizing financial regulation. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 12:30 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the New York Association of Business Economics. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 6, Waller said, "forward guidance can help speed up policy transmission, but if it is not flexible enough, it can hinder policy transmission." 

Tuesday, July 14 

  • 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), June (GS -0.11%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.5%); Core CPI (MoM), June (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), June (GS +3.87%, consensus +3.8%, last +4.2%); Core CPI (YoY), June (GS +2.76%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.8% on a rounded basis. We expect soft autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% decline in used car prices, a 0.1% decline in new car prices, and a 0.1% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.23% increase in the OER category and a 0.17% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect more moderate increases in the travel services categories (airfares: +1.5%; hotels: +0.3%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect downward pressure from potential residual seasonality on the communication and new cars categories. We estimate a 0.11% decline in headline CPI—reflecting lower energy prices (-4.4%)—which would lower the year-over-year rate to +3.87% from +4.25%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in June. We expect another large increase in the financial services component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in May, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. In a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh said that “inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down,” and that if AI causes the supply side to expand, “that has huge implications for monetary policy.”
  • 12:40 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on artificial intelligence at Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat at the Kenosha Area Business Alliance. Q&A is expected. On June 25, Goolsbee said, “You have seen now a little bit of improvement on this services inflation, and I’ve been identifying that as something that we would want to see. But right now, between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate, the inflation side and the job market side, clearly the problem’s on the inflation side.”
  • 01:30 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will moderate a discussion on consumers, artificial intelligence, and financial inclusion at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 02:55 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on responsible innovation and financial inclusion via a pre-recorded video at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. 

Wednesday, July 15 

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, July (consensus 9.3, last 5.7)
  • 08:30 AM PPI final demand, June (GS +0.2%, consensus flat, last +1.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%)
  • 08:45 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at an event organized by Partnership for New York City. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 9, Williams said, "The markets still expect oil prices to come down over the next six to 12 months. I think that's a pretty reasonable baseline. I still feel the fundamentals are that energy prices are likely to be around their peak and then to come down over time."
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on the Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 01:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on the economic outlook at the Exchequer Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
  • 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige Book, July meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the June FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts and that there were reports of increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, and stronger demand for necessities. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
  • 06:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver welcoming remarks in the 2026 Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the St. Louis Fed. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Thursday, July 16 

  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, July (GS 15.0, consensus 13.0, last 10.3)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10 (GS 220k, consensus 217k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 3 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,814k)
  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, June (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Retail sales ex-auto, June (GS -0.1%, consensus flat, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Core retail sales, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.4% in June (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.1%, reflecting lower gasoline prices.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, June (GS -0.5%, consensus flat, last +3.8%)
  • 12:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a conversation at the Houston branch of the Dallas Fed. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 6, Logan said, "I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. However, these decisions call for thorough analysis and debate."
  • 01:25 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Forum. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 4, Schmid said, "The big question now is do we stay patient? Our inflation numbers have probably crept up into the three and a half percent range, which nobody likes. Is it temporary...or do we act? Do we say, okay, now it’s time to raise rates a quarter or two and see if we can’t tamp this thing down?"
  • 07:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Friday, July 17 

  • 08:30 AM Import price index, June (consensus -0.6%, last +1.9%); Export price index, June (consensus -0.4%, last +1.3%)
  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, June (GS +12.5%, consensus +11.5%, last -15.4%)' Building permits, June (consensus -0.7%, last -0.9%) 
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); Manufacturing production, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last flat);Capacity utilization, June (GS 76.2%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.2%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.2% in June, reflecting strong auto and electricity production but weak natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.2%.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July preliminary (GS 51.5, consensus 51.0, last 49.5); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July preliminary (GS 3.3%, consensus 3.3%, last 3.3%)

Source: DB; Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 09:47
Tyler Durden

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NY Post
1 month ago
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