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Americans Feel Better About Jobs, Worse About Finances In Latest NY Fed Survey Amid Subdued Inflation Expectations

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1 month ago
Americans Feel Better About Jobs, Worse About Finances In Latest NY Fed Survey Amid Subdued Inflation Expectations

Unlike some recent extremely volatile months, especially in the first half of 2026, consumers expectations for inflation in August barely budged from July, as disclosed today by the latest NY Fed Survey, which showed that inflation expectations in one year were unchanged at 3.6%, estimates for inflation in five years were also flat at 3.0% for the 12th month in a row, while estimates for inflation in three years dipped to 3.2%, from 3.3%. 

According to the report, median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and five-year horizons and decreased at three-year horizon.

Taking a closer look at the component, median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.2% point to 3.0%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 3.1%. The decrease was driven by those living in the Northeast.

Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 1.7% points to 4.6% for gas, by 0.3% to 5.3% for food, and by 0.2% point to 9.1% for medical care. Median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.3% to 6.1% for the cost of college education and by 0.7 % point to 6.6% for rent.

While inflation expectations were tame, the view on financial wellbeing was split. On one hand, with less than three months ahead of mid-term congressional elections, the proportion of Americans reporting their financial situation was much worse or somewhat worse than a year ago rose to 38.6% last month, up from 37.6% in July. Those who expected their finances to get much worse or somewhat worse in the year ahead also climbed to 32.6% from 30.3%.

On the other hand, perspectives on the labor market improved: workers’ perceived probability of losing their job in the next year fell to 13.8%, the lowest reading since February. The likelihood of leaving a post voluntarily - a positive indicator - rose for the second straight month to 19.5%, above its 12-month average of 18.4 percent.

Both trends were driven by respondents with a high school degree at most and a household income under $100,000 per year. 

On the other hand, average unemployment expectations - the probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - increased by 1.6% to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020.

At the same time, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8% to 45.4% .

There was some deterioration in household leverage too, as a  larger percentage of consumers, 13.16% vs 12.00% in the prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payments over the next three months

Despite this seeming deterioration in household finances, the mean perceived probability that US stock prices will be higher 12 months from now was 40.9%, fractionally below the multi-year high in July, but far above the recent average.

Some more results from the latest report:

Labor Market

  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in August. The series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 2.6%.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 0.9 percentage point to 19.5%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4%. The decrease in job loss and increase in quit expectations were both driven by those with at most a high school degree and those with annual household incomes under $100,000.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 45.4%, just below the series 12-month trailing average of 45.5%.

Household Finance

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.0% in August. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
  • Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.2%, above its 12-month trailing average of 5.0%.
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago declined, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit increasing. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead and a smaller share expecting it will be easier.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.2 percentage points to 13.2%, just above its 12-month trailing average of 12.7%.
  • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, its highest reading since December 2025.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.7%, remaining above its 12-month trailing average of 8.8%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 28.8%.
  • Perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations both deteriorated with larger shares of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago and expecting a worse financial situation a year from now, and smaller shares of households reporting or expecting a better financial situation.

The New York Fed data comes days after a surprise increase in job gains in August signaled the labor market remained resilient despite uncertainties caused by the war on Iran and persistent inflation. Payrolls rose 162,000, above all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The data reinforced Fed views of a stable job market. The next key readings are Thursday's PPI report followed by the CPI on Friday. 

the Fed is set to meet in Washington Sept. 15-16, after leaving interest rates steady over five straight meetings. At their last gathering, three officials favored a quarter-point hike. A growing chorus of officials has questioned whether the current level of interest rates will be high enough to tame inflation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 12:00
Tyler Durden

Russia Vows To Keep Selling Oil to India Despite US Tariff Threat

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Russia Vows To Keep Selling Oil to India Despite US Tariff Threat

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Russia will remain a key crude oil supplier to India, Russia’s Ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, said in an interview with Asian News International, in which he also criticized the planned U.S. legislation to slap tariffs on countries importing Russian oil.

#WATCH | Delhi: On being asked how confident Moscow is about the India-Russia energy cooperation, Russian Ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, says, "The question is - how confident is India? India has shown that it's able to stand its ground and defend its national interests. And… pic.twitter.com/gOZ3HFA4TR

— ANI (@ANI) September 4, 2026

Russia has become India’s single-biggest oil supplier in recent years, after the U.S., the UK, and the EU banned Russian oil imports and moved to increase sanction pressure on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. Congress is trying to pass a “bill from hell” against Russia, sponsored by late Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill that proposes to give President Donald Trump authority to impose 100% tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas passed the Senate 86-11, but appears deadlocked in the House, amid disagreements among Republicans and concerns among Democrats that President Trump would have new authority to slap tariffs.

It’s unlikely that the bill passes in the House before the mid-term elections in November, analysts say.

Amid this background, Russia remains and will remain a key oil supplier to India, Moscow’s envoy to the world’s third-largest crude importer said.

“We would be ready to supply as much oil as India needs. Unfortunately, those who impose sanctions and tariffs have taken the path of pressure tactics instead of honest cooperation, which prevents those countries from offering a better deal to India in oil than us,” Alipov told ANI.

“The world will not cope if Russian oil is excluded. The energy markets cannot afford that. Russian oil will stay in the market for India and other countries. We are interested in supplying oil to India. India is interested in buying that oil,” the Ambassador said.

Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are estimated to have eased in August from July’s record high, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian export infrastructure and competition from China for Russia’s barrels have dented Indian intake of Moscow’s oil.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 11:45
Tyler Durden

US Embassy Issues Health Alert For Cuba After 'Significant Increase In Diarrheal Illness'

Zero Rss
1 month ago
US Embassy Issues Health Alert For Cuba After 'Significant Increase In Diarrheal Illness'

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Embassy in Cuba has issued a health alert, warning Americans about a rise in gastrointestinal illnesses caused by the island nation's water and energy grid collapses.

"The U.S. Embassy has noted a significant increase in diarrheal illness across Cuba, associated with the continuing degradation of the water and energy infrastructure," the Sept. 4 alert reads.

The embassy stated that the degradation affected the country's water supply, food storage, and temperature control, sparking infections such as E. coli, norovirus, Shigella, and other gastrointestinal pathogens.

Americans are urged to "be cautious" around meat, poultry, seafood, eggs, dairy, and other perishable foods that have not been stored properly.

People are also encouraged to stay away from foods that have been at room temperature for a long time, avoid eating raw or improperly washed vegetables, and be careful before they eat any cooked food that has cooled and then is reheated.

Frequent hand washing was also encouraged.

Embassy officials encouraged people to stay hydrated and "seek medical attention for persistent or severe diarrhea, bloody stools, high fever, significant abdominal pain, repeated vomiting, signs of dehydration, or symptoms not improving."

On Aug. 28, U.S. embassy officials warned that Cuba's water delivery infrastructure was growing increasingly unstable as some neighborhoods reported going long periods without receiving water from the regime.

Officials suggested that the water issues and power outages were caused by the communist regime's "mismanagement of public infrastructure" across the entire island.

"Water often only flows to residences when city power is on for a sufficient amount of time," the August alert reads.

Eight months ago, the Trump administration started a fuel blockade on Cuba to force negotiations around returning democracy to the island, including allowing Cuban exiles to return to vote for the first time since the communist takeover in 1959.

The blockade cut off oil deliveries to Cuba from Venezuela's socialist regime. The island faces an energy crisis that has left about 10 million people in the dark multiple times this year.

Energy authorities reported two nationwide grid collapses in March and three in July, along with several partial outages.

U.N.-appointed human rights experts said in February that the fuel blockade was a serious violation of international law.

However, in March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Cuba's grid has long been unreliable due to years of neglect by the regime.

"They were having blackouts last year," Rubio said. "They're having blackouts because they have equipment from the 1950s in their grid that they've never maintained and never upgraded, because they're incompetent."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 11:05
Tyler Durden

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