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The pro athlete later defended his comments after the 9-8 walk-off loss.

Cashiers are reportedly warning shoppers at checkout about the product before buying.

A wild police chase broke out in Santa Monica in the early hours of Monday morning.

Key Events This Week: Nvidia Earnings, FOMC Minutes And Global PMIs

Looking at the week ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with a market capitalisation now of $5.46tn, will be the main event. In economics, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with inflation data from Canada tomorrow, the UK on Wednesday, and Japan on Friday. From central banks, the highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Those flash PMIs will be important, as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinized for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices.

The US calendar is relatively light, with the NAHB housing market index today expected to remain unchanged at a cyclically low 34, followed by Tuesday’s pending home sales, where a modest +1.0% increase is anticipated (from +1.5% previously). Attention will then turn to Thursday’s April housing activity data, where housing starts are expected to ease to an annualized pace of 1.425mn (from 1.502mn), while permits are projected to tick higher to 1.375mn (from 1.363mn). All estimates are according to our economists.

Beyond housing, Thursday is the key day for macro releases. The weekly initial jobless claims are expected to edge slightly lower to 209k (from 211k). The same day will also bring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, where our economists expect a pullback to +21.0 (from +26.7), alongside the flash PMIs. In the US, manufacturing is expected to soften marginally to 53.7 (from 54.5), while services are seen ticking up to 51.5 (from 51.0).

In contrast to consumer sentiment—which will see an updated reading of the Michigan survey on Friday (expected at 48.2 versus 49.8 previously)—business surveys have generally remained more resilient despite the energy shock. That said, some indicators have shown rising input costs and lengthening delivery times, developments that could signal renewed inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.

Turning to central bank communications, the Fed speaker slate is relatively limited but still notable. Governor Waller is scheduled to participate in an ECB policy panel tomorrow, alongside comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter) on the outlook. On Wednesday, Vice Chair Barr will discuss consumer financial health metrics, while the Fed will also publish the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) will follow on Thursday with remarks on the economy, before Governor Waller rounds out the week with a further appearance on Friday.

In Europe, the highlights will include the UK labour market report tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday. DB's UK economist expects headline CPI to slow to 2.98% YoY and core CPI to fall to 2.61% YoY. More detail and forecasts are in the full inflation spotlight note here. The UK will also release the GfK May consumer confidence index and April retail sales on Friday. Other notable European releases include Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and Germany’s Ifo survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan faces a busy week, with key data including Q1 GDP tomorrow and April nationwide CPI on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist expects positive real growth of an annualised 1.3% QoQ for the GDP report and sees core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, holding at 1.8% YoY, alongside a retreat in core-core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, to 2.2% (from 2.4% in March). 

Finally, beyond Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, results are also due from major US retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and TJX.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day calendar of the week's main events:

Monday May 18

• Data: US May New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, March total net TIC flows, China April retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Italy March trade balance
• Central banks: BoE's Greene and Mann speak
• Earnings: Baidu, Ryanair Holdings
• Other: G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors (through May 19)

Tuesday May 19

• Data: US April pending home sales, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada April CPI, March building permits
• Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's Lane and Makhlouf speak, BoE's Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Home Depot, Amer Sports

Wednesday May 20

• Data: UK April CPI, RPI, PPI, March house price index, Germany April PPI, Denmark Q1 GDP
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, Fed's Paulson and Barr speak, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Earnings: NVIDIA, Analog Devices, TJX, Lowe's, Intuit, Target, Experian, Marks & Spencer
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday May 21

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and Eurozone May preliminary PMIs, US May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, April housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, Japan April trade balance, March core machine orders, Italy March current account balance, ECB March current account, Eurozone March construction output, Q1 labour costs, May consumer confidence, Australia April labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB's Villeroy speaks, BoJ's Koeda speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Deere, Generali, Ross Stores, Take-Two, BT, Zoom, Workday
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)

Friday May 22

• Data: US May Kansas City Fed services activity, UK May GfK consumer confidence, April retail sales, public finances, Japan April national CPI, Germany June GfK consumer confidence, May Ifo survey, France May business confidence, Canada March retail sales, April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Kazimir, Muller and Lane speak
• Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont, Lenovo

Taking a look at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Waller and Barr and Presidents Paulson and Barkin. The minutes to the FOMC’s April meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, May 18 

• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus 34, last 34)

Tuesday, May 19 

• 08:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank. Moderated Q&A is expected. On April 17th, Waller cautioned that higher oil prices as a result of the Iran war could lead to a “more lasting increase in inflation.” Waller noted that “if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” that could require “maintaining the policy rate at the current target range.”
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.5%)
• 07:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Markets Conference. Text and audience Q&A are expected. On March 27th, Paulson said that there was “a little bit more of a risk that the transmission of higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, into inflation expectations is faster and maybe a little bit more durable.” That said, Paulson also noted that “for [all these shocks] to turn into sustained inflation, you need a mechanism that keeps that going” and that “on the wage-setting side, it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of impetus that would make that happen now.”

Wednesday, May 20 

• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on consumer financial health at a conference in Atlanta, Georgia. Text is expected. On May 5th, Barr said that “the longer [the Iran war] goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we’re seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy, and then we have to worry more.” Barr noted that “we’re in a situation right now where we really need to wait and see to understand what direction [the conflict] is going.”
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, April 28-29 meeting: At its April meeting, the FOMC left the fed funds rate and the policy guidance in its statement unchanged. Presidents Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari dissented against the implicit easing bias in the standing policy guidance, while Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25bp cut. Chair Powell said that the number of FOMC participants who could support moving to balanced guidance has increased since March and that the center of the FOMC “is moving toward a more neutral” outlook for future rate changes, but most felt making a change now was unnecessary. We pushed back our expectations for Fed cuts by one quarter to December and March. With energy cost passthrough likely to keep year-over-year core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year, we think that a combination of lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades and further labor market softening will likely be needed for the FOMC to cut this year. We still expect that bar to be met but now expect it to take a bit longer.

Thursday, May 21 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 16 (GS 210k, consensus 210k, last 211k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 9 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,782k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS 20.0, consensus 18.0, last 26.7)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS -3.5%, consensus -5.5%, last +10.8%) 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.7, last 54.5); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 51.0)
• 12:20 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech at the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Raleigh, North Carolina. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, May 22 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (GS 48.2, consensus 48.3, last 48.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks; Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a lecture on the economic outlook at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in Germany. Text and moderated Q&A are expected.

Source: Goldman, DB

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 09:25

Hordes of twisted Luigi Mangione super-fans lined up outside of Manhattan’s state courthouse early Monday morning hoping to get a seat at a pivotal hearing for the alleged CEO murderer.

Last Friday, Page Six confirmed that the "Amateur Night" co-stars were divorcing after 18 years of marriage.

Last Friday, Page Six confirmed that the "Amateur Night" co-stars were divorcing after 18 years of marriage.

The "NBA on Prime" crew had a few words for Shams Charania after the NBA insider with ESPN spoiled Amazon's NBA MVP reveal.

We’re recapping season 1 episode 8 of “The Real Housewives of Rhode Island” with “Virtual Reali-Tea” co-hosts Danny Murphy and Evan Real. Rosie DiMare and Kelsey Swanson fight over pageants, houses, hair and the term “slam pig.” Alicia and Bill and dinner with Rulla and Brian, while the video of Brian’s mistress has been looming with...

We’re recapping season 1 episode 8 of “The Real Housewives of Rhode Island” with “Virtual Reali-Tea” co-hosts Danny Murphy and Evan Real. Rosie DiMare and Kelsey Swanson fight over pageants, houses, hair and the term “slam pig.” Alicia and Bill and dinner with Rulla and Brian, while the video of Brian’s mistress has been looming with...

Switzerland To Vote On Capping Population At 10 Million

In less than four weeks, on June 14, Swiss voters will decide on a proposal that, if passed, would mark a constitutional first: enshrining a hard limit on the country’s total permanent resident population.

The "No to a Switzerland with 10 Million" initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), seeks to amend the Federal Constitution to keep the population below 10 million until 2050. If thresholds are approached or breached, the government would be required to tighten asylum and family reunification rules and renegotiate or terminate international agreements—including the landmark Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU—that contribute to population growth.

Rapid Growth

Switzerland’s population stands at approximately 9.1 million as of early 2026. It has grown by roughly 1.9 million since 2000, with net international migration accounting for about 80% of that increase. Natural population growth (births minus deaths) remains very low due to a fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman.

Foreign nationals currently make up roughly 27% of the resident population (about 2.5 million people as of late 2024/early 2025 data), a share that has risen steadily:

• Around 2011 (15 years ago): ~22–23%
• Around 2016 (10 years ago): ~25%
• Today: ~27% foreign nationals (foreign-born and migration-background shares are higher, reaching ~40% when including naturalized citizens and second-generation residents)

Most foreign residents come from EU/EFTA countries (around 63–82% of the foreign population), primarily for work. Net migration into the permanent resident population has averaged 60,000–90,000 annually in recent years, though it declined modestly in 2025.

The Case for a Cap

Supporters argue that sustained high immigration, while economically beneficial in many respects, has created tangible pressures in a small, mountainous country with limited space for expansion. Key concerns include:

• Housing shortages and rising rents, especially in urban centers like Zurich and Geneva.
• Overcrowded public transport and congested roads.
• Strain on schools, healthcare, and the environment.
• Questions about long-term social cohesion and infrastructure sustainability.

Proponents frame the initiative as a pragmatic “sustainability” measure—prioritizing quality of life and per-capita prosperity over indefinite aggregate growth. In a nation with one of the world’s highest standards of living, they ask a straightforward question: How big should Switzerland be?

But What About Worker Shortages?

Opponents, including the Federal Council, a parliamentary majority, and much of the business community, warn that a rigid constitutional cap could backfire. Key arguments:

• Switzerland’s economy relies heavily on foreign talent to fill skilled positions in pharmaceuticals, finance, engineering, healthcare, and hospitality.
• An aging society needs workers to sustain pensions and public services.
• Terminating or renegotiating EU bilateral agreements risks damaging market access, research collaboration, and overall economic dynamism.
• Existing tools (quotas, safeguard clauses, and labor market preferences) already allow for managed migration; a blunt population target introduces uncertainty and potential labor shortages.

Critics also note that recent net migration has moderated somewhat and that many immigrants integrate successfully and contribute significantly through taxes and innovation.

Popular Idea

Recent polls show the outcome is too close to call, with support hovering around 47–52% depending on the survey. Parliament recommends rejection, but the decision rests directly with voters in Switzerland’s system of direct democracy.

The referendum reflects a deeper European tension: how to reconcile low native fertility, labor needs, and the desire to preserve national character, infrastructure capacity, and social trust. Unlike fertility policies or temporary immigration quotas tried elsewhere, Switzerland’s proposal is unique in attempting a constitutional limit on total population stock.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 09:15

The Question This Week Is "Does Trump Go Back To The Well On Bombing Iran?"

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Hormuz diary, day 79. The strait remains functionally closed and global crude and refined product stocks are rapidly drawing down. President Trump has returned from Beijing after much bonhomie with no concrete commitments from China to help get shipping moving again, though the American side has claimed that China wants the strait to re-open with no tolls imposed and has committed to buy at least $17bn of US agricultural products annually.

Trump is running out of patience, and has told Iran that “the clock is ticking” before US strikes resume. Asia is running out of fuel.

Iran has established a new protocol for allowing ships to pass the strait. Araghchi says the strait is “open to all commercial ships”, the IRGC says that Chinese ships are being allowed to pass, Iranian state TV said that “more than 30 ships” had been allowed to pass between Wednesday and Thursday, and that that number is set to accelerate. Nobody seems to know how many of the 30 ships were not Chinese.

George Prokopiou’s Karolos ran the strait with its tracking system switched off, carrying a cargo of 1 million barrels of Iraqi crude bound for India. A Panamanian-flagged vessel managed by Japanese refiner ENEOS snuck through on Friday, and several other ships also passed through Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman.

Bond markets are no longer taking this all in their stride. Yields on US 10s rose 24bps last week, 10-year Gilt yields lifted 26bps. Last week’s hotter-than-expected April US CPI reading of 3.8% conspired with PPI ex food and energy of 5.2%, and strong payrolls data the week before to see the 5y-5y inflation swap creep up to 2.47%. The OIS curve says rate hikes, Kevin Warsh’s ascension as Fed Chair notwithstanding. Gundlach says the Fed can’t possibly cut. Bloomberg says traders are eyeing a tipping point towards a new era of higher yields. A graph of the 10-year says that the tipping point came all the way back in 2022 for those who were paying attention. CPI has now been above target for more than five years. Inflation can-kicking in the 1970s gave us the Volcker Shock later on.

The S&P500 closed down 1.25% on Friday. Futures are -0.7% this morning. Asian stocks are getting battered. The DXY is bid and high beta FX is being offered. Even the hitherto immortal Aussie housing market is beginning to creak as auction clearance rates hit their lowest levels since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020. The headwind of higher rates and lower real incomes is now compounded by tax changes aimed at discouraging investors. Has Australia picked up on the end of neoliberalism zeitgeist to shift from a Thatcherite home-owning democracy to Xi Jinping-style common prosperity where “houses are for living in”? Is there no-one left to buy after government became the liquidity of last resort through first home buyer co-ownership programs last year?

While markets fret over the outlook, the question this week is “does Trump go back to the well on bombing Iran?” Einstein said that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results is the definition of insanity; Oscar Wilde said that consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative. CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper says the Iranian military industrial base is 90% degraded and Scott Bessent says that Iranian crude is going to have to go back to the well as the US blockade brings shut-ins ever closer. The CIA says Iran still has 70% of its pre-war missiles and can hold out under blockade for months. Who is talking their own book? Is the US government as faction-ridden as the Iranian government is supposed to be?

In the meantime, escalation risks mount. A drone struck close to the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant over the weekend and Saudi Arabia reportedly intercepted three drones directed at its own territory. Ukraine is stepping up attacks on targets deep inside Russia even as Russia pounds Ukrainian territory. Ukraine mounted its largest attack on the Moscow region in more than a year, targeting high-value military assets, oil facilities, Moscow’s main airport, and a sanctioned semiconductor factory. Zelenskyy saying there has been a “shift in the balance” on the battlefield.

As we sit here in 2026 Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ originally been planned to conclude within weeks is now in its fifth year. In uncomfortable similarity, the US’s 4-6 week ‘targeted military campaign’ is now in its 12th week. Finding common ground in peace negotiations continues to prove elusive in both cases, making stalemate the path of least resistance. Central banks and many governments continue to base forecasts on a near-term resolution in Iran that sees the Strait of Hormuz fully re-open to shipping. Seemingly everybody has a Schlieffen Plan where they will be home by Christmas.

Financial markets are no different. While markets might be waiting for the restart of a bombing campaign in Iran to send physical crude prices and prompt spreads sharply higher (and stock prices sharply lower), for physical supply chains in Asia getting back to the (oil) well becomes more pressing by the day. Hot war is certainly bad, but a grinding stalemate would be disaster enough.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 09:10

Embattled Rep. Max Miller has been accused of attempting to goad Emily Moreno's attorney, Andrew Zashin, into a fight and trashing his fiancée as "not much of a looker" in a shocking hallway encounter earlier this month.

The 84-year-old actress is being honored with the Palme d'Or award during the film festival's closing ceremony this coming Saturday.

The 84-year-old actress is being honored with the Palme d'Or award during the film festival's closing ceremony this coming Saturday.

"I'm glad it went to somebody that actually appreciates it. It seems like it was bought with a lot of purpose," Fox Estate Jewelry's Adam Fox told us.

"I'm glad it went to somebody that actually appreciates it. It seems like it was bought with a lot of purpose," Fox Estate Jewelry's Adam Fox told us.

France and Spain are co-favorites to win the 2026 World Cup.

Space Stocks Take-Off On Musk's SpaceX IPO Comments

AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, and Rocket Lab moved higher in premarket trading in New York after Elon Musk, speaking by video at the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit on Monday, said a SpaceX IPO is coming "pretty soon," adding to investor hype around the publicly traded space industry.

"We've got to get the SpaceX IPO stuff going here pretty soon," Musk told the summit, which was taking place in Tel Aviv, via video call.

Elon: "I would be there in person, but we gotta get this @SpaceX IPO going pretty soon."

👀🚀 https://t.co/6uwiDKS9of pic.twitter.com/yGVMTm7qmg

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 18, 2026

Shares of EchoStar were up about 3.5% in premarket trading. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab also moved higher by about 2.5% after Musk's comments earlier today.

On Friday, Reuters reported that SpaceX has selected Nasdaq for its long-awaited IPO and is targeting a June 11 pricing date, followed by a June 12 debut under the ticker "SPCX."

The Polymarket bet on SpaceX's symbol "SPCX" has hit 93%.

//--> //--> Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
Yes 93% · No 7%
View full market & trade on Polymarket.

In April, SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC and is planning to disclose its prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC.

SpaceX's IPO could raise upwards of $75 billion for the rocket company and dwarf Saudi Aramco's $29 billion debut in 2019. The money raised would be used to fund an "insane flight rate" for the Starship rocket and to push ahead with deploying orbital data centers in low Earth orbit. The company's valuation stands at around $1.75 trillion.

Other IPOs to watch in the second half include chatbot startups, such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 08:55

Woods just spent six weeks away from Trump at a treatment facility in Switzerland.