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Speculation Nation
Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,
Americans are natural risk takers. This trait goes back to the country’s founding stock.
Many of our ancestors decided to leave their homelands and set off to the New World.
In search of freedom, land, meat, and prosperity, these pioneers laid the foundation for a bold nation.
As a result, Americans have always excelled in the entrepreneurial arts. We aren’t afraid to take the risk of starting a business. This is surprisingly rare throughout the world. It’s one of the prime reasons our nation is so exceptional.
But today, our risk-taking nature is being taken advantage of.
Gambling EVERYWHEREYou can’t watch sports these days without the inevitable gambling ads. TV hosts offer up their suggested bets and plug the sponsor’s gambling app.
This was absolutely unheard of even 10 years ago. But in 2018, the Supreme Court ruled that sports gambling had been improperly banned by the federal government.
The rest is history. The chart below shows legal sports gambling volume since 2018:
Source: Author
From $4.6 billion in 2018 to $166 billion in 2025! It’s a disturbingly bullish chart. That’s a lot of money being flushed down the drain every year.
According to the largest study of online sports betting, about 96% of people lose money. That’s based on tracking digital payments. Only 4% ever withdrew winnings.
The odds are shockingly bad. And the crazy thing is, even if you do manage to beat the system, the gambling apps will limit your bets to tiny amounts. It’s rigged.
The study also found that lower-income people are hardest hit. They gamble more of their income, and lose more.
Investors are increasingly using “parlay” bets in an attempt to hit it big. You can bet on the outcome of 10+ different events, and depending on their probability, win 100x or more your money. But these parlays almost never hit. And the house makes a lot more money from these bets.
Too many people today view parlays as a retirement plan. There are much better ways to speculate available, like the stock market.
But even parts of the stock market have turned into a casino.
Stocks, TooCitadel Securities is a firm you may not have heard of. But they handle about 25% of all retail trading in the U.S. Stocks and options.
And their latest data is shocking. In February 2026, 39% of all options volume was on “zero-day” contracts. In other words, options that expire the same day. We call these “ODTE” options. Incredibly risky.
Source: Citadel Securities
This is day trading on steroids. Note how in 2021, 0DTE volume was just 12% of the total.
Many Americans are struggling. Housing is unaffordable, food prices are ridiculous, and the job market is rough. So they’re trying to use 0DTE options to strike it rich.
For the vast majority of traders, this strategy will end in tears.
Prediction Markets – Bet on AnythingAnd now, the next evolution in gambling. Prediction markets.
The name sounds respectable. Honey, I’m not gambling. I’m predicting.
Same difference.
On sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can bet on almost anything.
- Will it rain in New York City today?
- Will Trump say “Dumbocrats” in his speech tonight?
- Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0.25% in October?
- Who will win the UFC fight?
You can even bet on where Taylor Swift’s wedding will take place. New York, or Rhode Island? A few bold bettors say it’ll be in Pennsylvania (3% chance, make 33x your money!).
Source: Kalshi
The suspense is killing me…
Naturally, there is a huge insider trading problem in prediction markets. Someone on Taylor Swift’s team probably knows where the wedding will be. They could bet themselves, but then they might get caught. So they might tip off friends, and share the winnings.
Insider trading is becoming a major problem in prediction markets. We’ve already seen a U.S. soldier get busted for betting on Nicolas Maduro’s removal from power in Venezuela. He won $400,000, but got caught.
Source: DOJ
Of course, there are going to be productive uses of prediction markets. But for most people, it’s really just gambling under a fancier name.
What’s The Solution?Pandora’s box is open. Gambling has become a big part of our culture and economy.
It’s unlikely to be outlawed or restricted anytime soon. There’s too much money to be made.
But gambling is draining the savings of Americans. And preventing many from investing their money where it should be, in the stock market. Or a small business.
So we should encourage our kids, grandkids, and friends to steer clear of gambling. Many people are developing serious gambling addictions in this new world.
Many have come to see reckless speculation as their only “way out”. This is understandable, but it almost never works.
Sports gambling is not a path to riches. Quite the opposite. And 0DTE options and prediction markets may seem more sophisticated, but the result will be similar for most people.
Instead of making a deposit in the sports book, people should be opening a Roth IRA, or contributing to a 401k. These legal tax shelters offer incredible benefits, and over a long period you will make money with a well-thought out portfolio.
Sports betting was $166 billion last year. Total U.S. investment into 401ks is about $600 billion per annum. And gambling is growing much faster.
Compared to sports gambling, where only 4% win, the choice is clear. Take advantage of the most powerful force in the universe: compounding. And the only way to do that with a high probability is by owning quality stocks.
Be sure to put as much as you can in retirement accounts. Or if you’re already retired, encourage your kids/grandkids to do so. Compounding works best when the government isn’t constantly taking a cut.
Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 22:10Liberty keep creeping into pretender territory with brutal loss to Valkyries
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Baghdad's Green Zone Locked Down As Officials Arrested In Corruption Sweep
Beyond Sunday's Iranian drone and missile attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait, launched in response to earlier U.S. airstrikes, Hormuz shipping traffic remains stable but well below last week's peak, when 57 vessels transited the strait on Wednesday. With maritime flows stable through the critical waterway, attention now shifts to Iraq, where a widening corruption sweep inside Baghdad's Green Zone could become the next area of focus.
Iraq's state-run Iraqi News Agency reported that several political figures were arrested in a corruption probe tied to testimony from former Deputy Oil Minister Adnan al-Jumaili, who was detained last month.
Update: The arrest of former Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Refining Affairs, Adnan Mohammed Hamoud al-Jumaili, has so far led not only to a wave of high-profile arrests, but also to the seizure of what may become one of the largest corruption stockpiles uncovered in post-2003… https://t.co/zkvFZSgAuX pic.twitter.com/BK9YWPZmhl
— Basha باشا (@BashaReport) June 28, 2026Security forces locked down Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone and carried out raids inside the government and embassy district that sits on the west bank of the Tigris River. It contains key Iraqi state institutions, including parliament and government offices, as well as foreign embassies, most notably the U.S. Embassy.
Video footage on X showed security forces in tanks and other heavily armed vehicles locking down the Green Zone.
Iraq's Green Zone in Baghdad has been placed under lockdown as military forces deploy, with reports of raids targeting the residences of government officials, according to The New Region. pic.twitter.com/1i3eKPsTEZ
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 28, 2026Special forces helicopters shake US embassy Green Zone https://t.co/E1MZhvISxG pic.twitter.com/3jQfT2gY5L
— RT (@RT_com) June 28, 2026Video: The Green Zone right now—continued security deployment and inspections of vehicles with government license plates. pic.twitter.com/VlMCP317DA
— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) June 28, 2026#العراق
لا أحد يجرؤ على هذا العمل الكبير من دون غطاء أمريكي
📍دخول دبابات جهاز مكافحة الارهاب إلى المنطقة الخضراء في العاصمة بغداد وتطويق جميع مداخلها
📍اعتقالات بالجملة طالت نواب ومسؤولين واصحاب نفوذ في بغداد
📍جهاز مكافحة الارهاب يشتبك مع الفوج الرابع التابع للقصر… pic.twitter.com/cYadoVFx6z
According to a security report obtained by AP News, seven people were arrested, including five members of Parliament whose immunity was revoked. Some were reportedly linked to the political bloc of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
🔻A photo of a number of officials and bodyguards who were arrested in the Green Zone. pic.twitter.com/EzCfIfk7ag
— S p r i n t e r (@SprinterPress) June 28, 2026"Al-Sudani's bloc won the largest share of seats in November's parliamentary elections, but he ultimately stepped aside amid a deadlock in the Coordination Framework — a coalition of Shiite parties allied with Iran that brought al-Sudani to power — over their preferred candidate for premier," AP News noted.
JUST IN: 🇮🇶 Gunfire heard across Baghdad Green Zone as Iraqi forces raid and arrest high profile officials for corruption. pic.twitter.com/orTUPdyKNI
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) June 28, 2026The outlet added, "He was replaced by Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman and political newcomer, who emerged as a consensus candidate and received the blessing of the United States."
Iraqi police have released picture of some of the money (dollars) they found in the home of the pro-Iranian Shiite MP Aliya Nassif last night.
She has long been one of the more famous MP’s in the Iraqi Parliament’s anti-corruption committee.
🇮🇶 pic.twitter.com/1gwqP0tfew
The immediate read is that this anti-corruption sweep appears aimed at Iraq's political class aligned with Iran. The timing is also critical, coming just after Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait with drones and missiles in response to U.S. strikes. That suggests Baghdad, with US influence, may be moving to eliminate Iran-linked networks inside Iraq before they can become a more worrisome pressure point.
Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 21:55Supreme Court Expected To Rule On Cook, Elections, And Trans Athletes
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide in the coming days whether President Donald Trump can remove Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook from her post - an extraordinary step that would mark the first presidential firing of a Fed official since the central bank's founding in 1913 and directly test the institution's independence from political interference.
The justices, who hold a 6-3 conservative majority, signaled skepticism during January arguments toward Trump's authority to oust Cook. The Federal Reserve Act requires that governors be removed only "for cause," a term Congress left undefined and without procedural details. Trump cited unsubstantiated allegations of mortgage fraud - which Cook has denied and called a pretext for her removal over monetary policy disagreements. Cook has remained in her role while the case proceeds. No president has attempted such a firing in the Fed's more than century-long history.
This dispute is one of three pending cases examining the outer limits of presidential power under Trump. The others involve his removal of a Federal Trade Commission member and an executive order limiting birthright citizenship. The court has already delivered Trump victories in two immigration cases this week and has frequently sided with the administration in emergency rulings, though it rejected his sweeping tariffs in February.
Firing Federal OfficialsThe justices appeared ready during December arguments to uphold Trump's firing of Democratic FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter over policy differences. Lower courts had ruled that Trump exceeded his authority. U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer urged the Court to overturn the 1935 precedent Humphrey's Executor v. United States, which has protected heads of independent agencies from at-will removal. While the Court has narrowed that precedent in recent decades, it has stopped short of overruling it. Conservative justices have expressed sympathy for the view that statutory tenure protections encroach on the president's constitutional powers. The Court previously allowed Trump to remove Slaughter while the case continues.
Election-Related CasesTwo election disputes remain as Republicans seek to retain congressional control in the November midterms.
During March arguments, conservative justices expressed skepticism toward a Mississippi law - challenged by Republicans and supported by the Trump administration - that permits mail-in ballots postmarked on or before Election Day to be counted if received up to five business days later. A lower court invalidated the provision. A ruling striking down the law could encourage stricter voting rules nationwide.
Trump issued an executive order in March restricting mail-in ballots across the country, but a federal judge in Boston blocked its implementation on Thursday.
In December, the Court heard a Republican-led challenge - involving Vice President JD Vance - to federal limits on coordinated spending between political parties and candidates. Some conservative justices appeared open to the First Amendment arguments against the restrictions, while the liberal justices seemed inclined to preserve them. A lower court had upheld the limits.
Transgender AthletesIn January arguments, the conservative majority signaled it is prepared to uphold laws in Idaho and West Virginia barring transgender athletes from female sports teams at public schools and universities. The states argue the measures protect fair competition for women and girls; critics see them as part of broader efforts to restrict transgender rights.
Geofence WarrantsThe Court also heard April arguments in a Virginia case examining whether law enforcement's use of "geofence" warrants - which sweep up cellphone location data from areas near crime scenes to identify potential suspects - violates the Fourth Amendment's ban on unreasonable searches.
The Supreme Court's term, which began in October, typically ends in late June or early July. With seven cases still unresolved and the next round of decisions expected Monday, the coming days will bring clarity on these high-stakes disputes.
Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 21:35