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Trump Stuns By Outright Dismissing Notion Putin Preparing To Attack A NATO State
President Trump has added fuel to the fire of controversy and speculation over the question of why CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise and highly rare trip to Moscow on Tuesday.
Media accounts which seek to explain the nature of his meeting with top Kremlin intelligence officials, while apparently being snubbed by Putin in terms of a direct interaction, have shifted in days since the visit. The early 'consensus' was that he delivered a stern warning for Russia not to attack any NATO state. But President Trump has poured cold water on this explanation, appearing to dismiss it outright in his latest comments.
"I've had good talks with him. He's not going to be attacking a NATO territory," Trump said of Putin on Thursday while talking to reporters in the Oval Office.
Trump didn't answer specifically when pressed on if the president directed Ratcliffe to deliver a warning to Putin to not attack NATO. "I don't want to comment on that but they're not going to attack," Trump said.
While many times over the course of the Ukraine war, European heads of state have claimed that Russia is expansionist and seeks to attack countries in Europe beyond Ukraine, this has not ever been a public allegation of Trump, who has tended to downplay it as a possibility.
Trump did deny the reports centered on Ratcliffe in an interview with Axios Thursday, saying "Ratcliffe sees his Russian counterpart once every six months or once every year. They have a very good relationship. There was no message and there was nothing unusual."
And when asked over whether he's concerned that Putin might attack NATO or deeper inside Europe, Trump replied, "I am not concerned … at all. There is no problem." According to more:
The president called Ratcliffe's trip "standard business" and expressed puzzlement over the media accounts of it.
But the reality is that no CIA director has made such a trip in well over four years. The prior time was November 2021, when then-CIA Director William Burns traveled to Moscow to meet with senior Russian officials and issued a stark warning against invading Ukraine.
It was also highly unexpected in terms of timing, given the stalemated nature of the Ukraine conflict, and the fact that zero peace negotiations are happening. There has not even so much as been any efforts at achieving a short-term ceasefire, akin to last year's Christmas truce.
Trump in the Oval on Thursday declaring confidently that no, the Russians are not going to attack NATO:
REPORTER: Did Ratcliffe delivered a warning to Russia not to attack NATO territory during his trip?
US PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I don't wanna comment on that, but they're not going to attack NATO. pic.twitter.com/TbAvq8NUJR
One theory on the motive for Ratcliffe's trip, which has gained traction among independent analysts, is that it was focused on the Iran war amid allegations from US officials that Russia has assisted Tehran with targeting information on US troop and base whereabouts in the Mideast region.
At times throughout Operation Epic Fury, Tehran appears to have even targeted CIA stations. The bulk of American military assets and bases in the Gulf countries have suffered severe damage earlier in the conflict, resulting in a Pentagon troop drawback to safer areas. This is indeed a big deal if it is the case that Russia or China (or both) have handed the Iranians intel to help push back American bases and forces.
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 12:10Josh Jacobs alleged attack on girlfriend is on video: prosecutor
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Judge Again Rules Texas Drag Performance Law Unconstitutional
Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,
A federal judge on Tuesday again barred a Texas law that restricts public drag performances, ruling for a second time that the measure violates the U.S. Constitution's free-speech protections.
U.S. District Judge David Hittner in Houston declared Texas Senate Bill 12 an unconstitutional restriction on speech. He permanently enjoined Attorney General Ken Paxton from enforcing it.
"For those who find such activities as described in this case offensive, the solution is relatively simple ... just don't go," Hittner wrote in his opinion.
The ruling marks the second time Hittner has found the law in violation of the First Amendment. He granted a restraining order against the legislation in 2023. A Fifth Circuit panel later vacated the injunction in 2025 and remanded the case, allowing the law to take effect while the appeal moved through the courts.
Hittner reconsidered the First Amendment challenges under the Supreme Court's Moody framework - which provided criteria for determining whether performers' rights were violated - and the vagueness claims in the context of court precedent. He again found the statute overbroad and unconstitutionally vague.
The amended final judgment, entered Aug. 25, finds Senate Bill 12 violates the First Amendment as incorporated by the 14th Amendment, and immediately and permanently blocks the attorney general from enforcing it.
Senate Bill 12, signed by Gov. Greg Abbott in June 2023, targets "sexually oriented performances," imposes civil penalties on businesses hosting them when minors are present, authorizes local governments to regulate such shows, and creates Class A misdemeanor criminal penalties for performers of up to a year in jail and a $4,000 fine.
The law bans "the exhibition of sexual gesticulations using accessories or prosthetics that exaggerate male or female sexual characteristics" in public or in venues where people under 18 might see them. It defines a sexually oriented performance as a visual performance featuring a nude performer or one engaging in sexual conduct that appeals to the prurient interest in sex.
Hittner found that performers ranging from Dolly Parton and Elvis Presley to Miley Cyrus could have faced penalties if their acts were viewed as erotic. Accessories and prosthetics that exaggerate sexual characteristics, hip gyrations, or certain clothing and gestures risked triggering the law even in non-obscene contexts such as theater, dance, or impersonation acts, he said.
Paxton, a Republican running for the U.S. Senate, on Wednesday said he plans to appeal the decision.
"This is a profoundly flawed decision that endangers our children and is an affront to Texas values," he wrote in a post on X. "I will appeal this decision immediately and continue to fight to protect our kids."
Paxton's office defended the legislation as a measure to protect children, pledging to exhaust the court system in pursuit of implementing the law.
Opponents said the law was too broad and aimed at LGBT performers.
"Today's decision confirms that the Legislature's attempt to ban drag performances was unconstitutional from start to finish," Brian Klosterboer, senior staff attorney at the ACLU of Texas, which represented the plaintiffs, said in an Aug. 25 statement. "Drag has a rich history as a refuge of joy and liberation for countless Texans, and it's not going anywhere."
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:55‘RHOSLC’ alum Jen Shah completes prison sentence: ‘I feel blessed’
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US Job Growth Revised Lower By 79,000 In Annual Benchmark Estimate
In our preview of today's preliminary benchmark revision of US jobs - published by the BLS 'conveniently' just as Kevin Warsh started to speak - we said that according to Goldman calculations, for the first time in 3 years and just the second time since 2018, the BLS was going to revisedpayrolls modestly higher "based on the nine months of data released since the last benchmarked period, March 2025."
Specifically, Goldman's economists expected "a preliminary upward revision on the order of 50-450k which would translate to a 5-40k upward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026. A final revision of this magnitude would result in the average pace of payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026 being revised up from about 25k/month currently to 30-65k/month."
Alas, for one more year, it was not meant to be, and this morning the BLS announced that according to the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES), the 2026 benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000. While just why of a positive revision, it was a far cry from last year's record 911K negative job revision. For context, annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have had absolute average of 0.2% of total nonfarm employment.
Additionally, the revision for total private employment was -178,000, which means that government jobs were revised higher by 99K.
The 178,000 negative revision for private payrolls in the year through March reflected weakness in retail trade, education and health services, manufacturing and business services. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities and construction.
It is likely that the final final revision will actually tip into the positive. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release. As we noted earlier, preliminary estimates for the benchmark revision tend to understate the final revision: the nextx chart shows that the preliminary estimate has been below the final revision in each of the last six years, by roughly 100k on average, which suggests that today's -79K print will end up being in the +20K ballpark. This reflects that the QCEW itself has been revised up in every quarter since 2019 with the exception of 2020 H1, potentially reflecting ongoing issues with initial submissions to the administrative records that inform the QCEW
Before today's revision, government payrolls data indicated employers added 211,000 jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 17,600 per month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The preliminary benchmark revision suggests average job growth was likely closer to 11,000 a month.
Preliminary benchmark revisions have now lowered employment estimates in seven of the past eight years. Even so, the latest adjustment suggests that the labor market is roughly balanced - with employers slow to hire new workers but also slow to fire existing staff.
The BLS each year benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages that’s based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs. While the new information improves the accuracy of its data, the process has gained additional attention in recent years.
Last year’s preliminary adjustment slashed employment estimates by the most on record, reigniting White House criticism of the BLS. About one month prior to the 2025 preliminary benchmark release, President Donald Trump fired the agency’s leader after a separate monthly report showed weak job growth. The Senate confirmed Trump’s pick to lead the BLS - Brett Matsumoto - on Aug. 7. Matsumoto, a PhD economist and BLS veteran, now helms an agency responsible for publishing some of the most market-moving statistics in the world.
What is behind the chronic negative revisions? First, there is the chronically wrong birth-death model, discussed extensively here in recent years. Yet just 14% of last year’s very large revision can be attributed to miscalibration of the birth-death model; the bulk instead falls into the residual category which would capture the reporting error arising from a systematic undercount of unauthorized workers.
As we discussed first a few years ago when we correctly previewed the massive negative revisions to 2023 and 2024 data, since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely excludes most unauthorized workers, who contributed to employment growth in the periods covered by those benchmark revisions. In most cases unauthorized workers do not qualify for unemployment insurance, so employers might see little reason to pay unemployment insurance tax on their behalf and might even see it as a needless risk in the cases of any immigrants they are employing who do not yet have work permits.
As such, the Trump admin's aggressive purging of illegal aliens - and workers - has led to significant real-time overestimates of the labor market in the monthly series, which are then revised away every year once it becomes clear that there were far fewer illegal aliens in the workforce.
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:40Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasts Elizabeth Warren, offers her ‘Foreign Exchange for Dummies’ tutorial
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"Dark" Tanker Fleet Shatters Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold As Gulf Oil Exports Top Two-Thirds Of Pre-War Level
Brent crude futures initially jumped overnight after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has no interest in reviving the memorandum of understanding (interim peace deal) reached with Iran in June. The war-risk premium in Brent has since faded in New York premarket trading amid mounting developments this week that major Gulf producers, including Kuwait and Qatar, are increasing tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Emerging diplomatic traction between Oman and Iran has also further reduced the perceived risk of a prolonged disruption.
Reinforcing this week's developments, new data from Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of oil research, show that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to more than two-thirds of prewar levels.
Struyven wrote in a note late Thursday that Gulf-area exports of crude and petroleum products have rebounded sharply to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, up from a March low of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day.
He said crude flows remain 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below prewar levels, but the recovery has been strong enough to ease fears of a prolonged disruption at the world's most important maritime chokepoint.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at 8 million to 10 million barrels per day. Traders surveyed by Bloomberg place that range much lower, at between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day.
"Although our estimates focus on total Gulf flows, the upward revisions suggest Strait of Hormuz oil transits are likely close to US officials' 8-10mb/d estimates. The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Middle East conflict," Struyven told clients.
Related:
He noted, "Shipping markets now price in disruptions likely continuing well into 2027 (Exhibit 7). Still, potential additional dark flows and price-sensitive China net crude imports may moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer. We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude."
Readers by now understand that the energy crisis is not necessarily in crude oil but, in fact, in refined products, with the U.S. diesel crack spread trading at $93 per barrel Friday morning. The spread blew out last week, reaching a record above $100.
The takeaway from Goldman's Struyven is that, even though the critical waterway has not fully reopened, a growing fleet of dark tankers is transiting the strait and defying Iran's blockade. That raises the question we have asked in recent weeks: Is Iran's geopolitical leverage over the Strait of Hormuz eroding?
Overnight, Trump posted an image on Truth Social depicting the Strait of Hormuz as "New U.S. Territory."
In late March, we cited a note from Zoltan Pozsar's advisory firm, Ex Uno Plures, pointing out that Trump was "methodically building a portfolio of assets" to pressure China, including adding the Strait of Hormuz (read here).
The question is whether Trump will stop at Hormuz or embark on another crusade in the Gulf and take Iran's Kharg Island. This newly minted portfolio also includes Venezuela, where the U.S. is nearing a deal to secure long-term energy-producing assets in the country.
Professional subscribers can read the full GS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 11:25