Zero Rss

If Other Countries Give Fewer Shots, Why Can't We Ask Why?

Authored by Jack Hellner via AmericanThinker.com,

By age 18, a child in the United States can receive roughly 30 to 75 total vaccine doses if they follow standard schedules and get annual flu shots. Fewer shots are needed because vaccines are combined.

By comparison, in Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (via the Standing Committee on Vaccination, STIKO) recommends routine protection against about 12 to 15 infectious diseases for children. Because Germany relies heavily on multi-component combination shots (like the 6-in-1 hexavalent vaccine), children receive roughly 11 to 14 actual physical injections.

Elsewhere in Europe, in England, children receive around 20 to 25 individual vaccine doses from birth to age 14, delivered via roughly 14 to 16 actual needle injections.

Similarly, under Japan’s routine immunization program, children receive around 20 to 22 individual injection shots.

And in Spain, children receive around 15 to 18 individual injection shots from birth through adolescence under the official public health system.

These comparisons raise some obvious questions.

Doesn’t it look like children in the United States get more shots today, and there would be a valid reason to recommend fewer?

Do children in countries with fewer shots have worse health results?

Do other countries ignore science when they have fewer shots?

Wouldn’t it be nice if the media were curious instead of just repeating talking points to trash President Donald Trump?

And vaccines aren’t the only area of health care where such questions should be asked.

Obamacare is one of the worst and most costly bills ever passed, yet the media and other Democrats still falsely claim that it makes health care more affordable.

If Democrats just wanted to cover the poor and those at high risk, they would have just expanded Medicaid and high-risk pools instead of destroying the whole system.

They never wanted affordable care. They wanted government-controlled care.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 05:00

'Do What Israel Tells You!' - Graffiti On USAF Jet Suggests Troops Think War Isn't For America

It only took two weeks of fighting for a majority of polled Americans to conclude that the war on Iran benefits Israel more than the United States. If comments from a prominent, former Navy SEAL and graffiti written in the dust of a US Air Force jet in the Middle East are any indication, many American service members are convinced their participation in the war only serves the agenda of the State of Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.  

On Sunday, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft executive VP Trita Parsi posted a photo that he said was sent to him "from the field" showing temporary graffiti one or more service members had written in the dust of a military aircraft: 

"Do what Israel tells you to!" Graffiti scrawled on a US military aircraft flap points to disbelief in the supposed rationale for a US war on Iran (via Trita Parsi)

Some messages on what looks like a Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker satirically embrace the idea that American service members should be enthusiastic about serving Israel: 

• "Be a good goy and do what Israel tells you to!!!" 
• "I LOVE ISRAEL. I AM A GOOD GOYIM." 
• "BiBi's Cucks" 

Some clarifications are in order. "Bibi" is a nickname used by Netanyahu, and "cuck" refers to weak men who submit to other men's domination. "Goy" and "goyim" are, respectively, singular and plural Hebrew nouns used to refer to non-Jews. Those two words aren't inherently derogatory toward non-Jews. However, like other labels for people, they can be used derisively or as an "outsider label" depending on the context. For example, in an email conversation with AI scientist Roger Schank, convicted sex-criminal Jeffrey Epstein wrote, "This is the way the jew [sic] make money… let the goyim deal in the real world.”

Epstein made an appearance on the dusty wing flap too. Reflecting a widespread but not-yet-proven theory that Israel coerced Trump into starting a war on Iran by threatening to release damning information obtained by Epstein, one of the messages repeats a common play on words that turns US "Operation Epic Fury" into "Operation Epstein Fury." 

Another message mocks the Trump administration's recurring claims that a deal to end the five-month-old war and open the Strait of Hormuz is imminent: "Peace Deal #64 Incoming... ALL THIS FOR THE HOLY LAND." Another mocks the surveillance state that's rising at home while service members who are sworn to defend the Constitution are sent overseas for an unconstitutional war launched on false premises: "I love Flock Cameras."  

As this is written, mainstream media isn't touching the story with a ten-foot-pole, despite the sound reputation of Parsi, who has vouched for its authenticity. The media silence about the messages has thus far relieved the Pentagon from having to issue a statement about them. If it does, we can expect the DOD to claim the graffiti is unrepresentative of how most US service members feel.

Parsi says a service member told him that journalists have no idea how low morale is. "What people in the media don't understand when they compare past conflicts to this one, is this operation has no morale behind it," the military man told Parsi. "That makes a world of difference to service members deployed to undesirable locations indefinitely."

In an interview with Tucker Carlson last month, podcaster and former Navy SEAL Shawn Ryan gave some blunt insights into similar feelings among special operators still on active duty:

"I just had some buddies leave and everybody knows what this is. Everybody knows they're fighting for Israel. It's a joke. This is not me saying this, this is them. This is the guys that are gonna go over there in Tier 1, Tier 2 units that are joking around, saying 'this isn't even for us.'

Throughout history, that's not a winning strategy. If they don't believe in what they're potentially going to do...and they know it's not for the United States, it's for a foreign country --- like, the fight's out of the dog, buddy...They know it's not for us. They're not defending our country."

Ryan said he'd just hosted a pre-deployment party for an operator, who was fixated on the grim reality of what service in the war on Iran is really about. "That's all he was talking about. And it's fucking sad...like, why don't you just get out, man?" 

Shawn Ryan just said the quiet part out loud on Tucker:
“Everybody knows they’re fighting for Israel. It’s a joke.”

Active Tier 1 and Tier 2 guys are openly joking: “Yeah… this isn’t even for us.”

“They know it’s not for the United States. It’s for a foreign country.”

“They… pic.twitter.com/sJN20gUJ0b

— Defiant Ghost (@TheDefiantGhost) July 24, 2026

Thanks to reporting on the extent to which the Israeli government went to sell Trump on breaking his campaign promise to be a "peace president," it's been increasingly common to hear the war being characterized as a "war for Israel." Having convinced America to attack its chief regional rival -- in a war that has killed at least 18 service members and wounded more than 600 others -- Israel is now abstaining from direct participation.

As far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said last month, “The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States. The current situation is the best one for us.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 04:15

Meta Flags Migration Searches... Then Offers UN Asylum Help

Via Remix News,

Meta’s Facebook and Instagram platforms have begun displaying targeted warning messages to users searching for news or information related to mass immigration, including terms such as “Ceuta.”

The prompts caution users to “be careful when searching for migration info” and include a prominent link or button offering “help with moving to a new country.”

🌍🔴BREAKING: Facebook is now displaying a message warning users to be "careful when searching for migration info" when they search for news related to mass immigration, including keywords like "Ceuta."

If users click on the new link, they will be directed to a page that offers… pic.twitter.com/EherEJiMJX

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 17, 2026

Clicking through takes users to a Meta Help Center page titled “Help is available if you want to move to a new country.” That page, created in consultation with experts from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), provides tips and guidance to help migrants enter Europe and other states.

The site encourages regular migration, compliant with the laws of origin, transit, and destination countries, compared to illegal migration, which it describes as dangerous and likely to expose people to violence, exploitation, and abuse.

The resource further directs users to the UNHCR website for information on asylum procedures, resettlement options for recognized refugees, and family reunification. These programs are fueling mass immigration into Europe and North America, often through legal channels, which offer a significantly larger demographic threat than illegal channels.

It also references IOM services and, in related materials and app descriptions circulating with the prompts, points toward the IOM’s MigApp. That mobile application is officially branded by the UN migration agency as a tool for “empowering migrants,” offering information on visas, health regulations, risks, money transfers, document storage, and access to IOM programs.

The feature appears to have rolled out recently and has drawn attention amid a surge of irregular migrant crossings into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. In late July 2026, tens of thousands of people attempted to enter Ceuta by swimming or scaling border fences, with reports of dozens of deaths.

Investigations showed that many of the attempts were coordinated through large public Facebook groups that shared maps, distances, equipment recommendations, and calls for additional crossings. Meta removed multiple groups after media reports, stating it monitors the situation in real time and removes content that facilitates human smuggling.

Critics argue that Meta’s messaging goes beyond safety warnings and actively steers users, potentially including those researching or considering irregular routes, toward UN institutions that support asylum claims and migrant empowerment. Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin highlighted screenshots of the Instagram interstitial, noting that the “get migration info” pathway leads directly to UN resources for asylum seekers and the empowering-migrants app.

Dan Lyman wrote on X that “journalists in Europe have noticed this ‘guide’ when conducting searches on Instagram for ‘Ceuta.'”

Lyman further notes that a reporter told him, “It’s a guidebook to migration when people are searching for illegal immigration.”

Journalists in Europe have noticed this “guide” when conducting searches on Instagram for “Ceuta.”

“It’s a guidebook to migration when people are searching illegal immigration,” a reporter told me.

This is brand new.

A prompt pops-up with a query followed by a detailed… https://t.co/RXPd4RqQWb pic.twitter.com/GMsChgnZkh

— Wid Lyman (@Wid_Lyman) August 16, 2026

The EU knows that images like Ceuta are a boon to right-wing parties. For those seeking to come to Europe, there are many doors open. This new prompt from Meta may serve as a guidebook for mass immigration through the legal channels the EU desires.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 03:30

"Generates A Number Of Risks": UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms

Following up on our "Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch" note earlier this month, which focused on Europe as a whole, UBS analysts focused on Germany's natural gas inventories Monday morning and warned that levels are alarmingly low for this time of year, raising the risk of elevated prices and a renewed supply crunch if the Northern Hemisphere experiences a severe winter.

Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, wrote earlier today that Germany's NatGas storage is just 48% full, compared with 65% a year ago and 75% during the 2022 energy crisis. 

We would go a step further: inventories are now at their lowest level for this time of year in 17 years.

Penn added more color:

Economist Felix Huefner sees Germany hitting 65% in November, compared to the government target of 80% and the EU's target of 90%. This generates a number of risks. 

A surge in demand and hence gas prices if Germany attempts to achieve its targets; increased pressure on Germany's fiscal position if the government needs to use Trading Hub Europe (THE) to replenish stocks; pressures elsewhere in Europe as German demand crowds out other national buyers; Germany's regasification facilities are limited which means even if it can find LNG supply, it can't necessarily convert that to stored gas. Hence, a gas shortage could ensue late winter anyway. 

The ECB estimates that a 10% increase in wholesale gas prices adds 0.6pp to Eurozone headline inflation. In addition, all that is likely to place downward pressure on German GDP, which is already threatened by the consequences of a near-dry Rhine river. There is now a mere 10cm of navigable depth at the Kaub pinch point - in February it was 400cm and a year ago 200cm. Cargo barges are down to 10-20% of capacity to stay afloat.

Circling back to our Aug. 7 "Winter Is Coming" note, we warned that it is not just a global diesel crunch keeping Goldman's Samantha Dart up at night. NatGas is another mounting concern.

Continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by historically low Rhine River levels, is slowing Europe's effort to rebuild NatGas stockpiles. That risk is now materializing in the inventory data.

Here is where Europe stands in terms of NatGas storage:

At this point, Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 02:45

Europe's Looming Existential Crisis

Authored by Kenneth Timmerman via American Greatness,

Americans pay little attention to Europe, other than to sneer at the Euro-elites and bemoan the fecklessness of European leaders.

I am guilty of both sins. Mea culpa.

But I am also aware of the coming existential crisis facing Europe as a whole and the European Union quite specifically.

It comes in several flavors, and all of them are bitter.

First is the shock and embarrassment posed by the influx of 72,000 North African Muslim wannabe migrants into Ceuta, one of two tiny Spanish enclaves in Morocco, just miles away from the Spanish mainland near Gibraltar.

The inability—or unwillingness—of the Spanish authorities to repulse them has provoked a Europe-wide reaction, prompting Italy’s center-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to impose passport controls on visitors from Spain for the first time since the Schengen accords of 1995 created a “borderless” European space.

Spain retaliated last week, imposing controls of its own on visitors from Italy.

This week Meloni teamed up with her center-left Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, to jointly condemn uncontrolled migration.

“We are both proud of Europe’s Christian cultural heritage and want to protect it,” they said on Monday. “We expect those who come to our countries and choose to make Europe their home to respect our values and not seek to impose ways of life on us that we do not share.”

Meloni drafted a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemning lax EU immigration policies, which was joined by Frederiksen and 21 EU leaders.

Immigration has been a long-simmering issue since German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the floodgates to hundreds of thousands of Syrian “refugees” in 2015. The Ceuta stampede is just the latest chapter.

Fabrice Leggeri, a Frenchman who was executive director of the EU Border and Coast Guard Agency from 2015 to 2022, fought tooth and nail to standardize EU immigration procedures and to transform his bureaucratic backwater into a real law enforcement agency.

He was stymied by the European Commissioner in charge of Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson of Sweden. “Don’t worry,” she said. “You don’t need guns and uniforms because migrants come in search of love. Europe is an aging continent, so whether you like it or not, it is your job to welcome migrants.”

Next comes EU enlargement.

Standing at the gates to join the EU’s 27 member states are tiny Montenegro and Albania. Then comes Iceland, should its citizens approve a resumption of EU membership talks in an upcoming referendum.

While only Albania, which is predominantly Muslim, is controversial, their accession could open the door to membership talks with Ukraine and Serbia.

Ukraine would require a peace deal with Russia, which would be less likely should Ukraine be rewarded with EU membership. Serbia, a Russian ally and gateway to the Russian economy, poses its own problems.

And finally, there is the whole question of democracy and freedom.

EU citizens rail incessantly over the often ridiculous regulations enacted by the unelected bureaucrats of the European Commission that affect their daily lives.

Many of these are motivated by Europe’s powerful “Green” parties and lobbyists. Others stem from the left-wing, anti-capitalist, anti-farmer bias of the Eurocrats.

One case in point: the reintroduction of wolves onto agricultural lands where the predators had been eradicated generations ago. Today, the wolf packs are protected as endangered species even as they devastate sheep herds from Sweden to southern Italy.

I know farmers who brave the authorities and secretly hunt down wolves endangering their livelihoods. They operate as a veritable underground resistance movement, communicating using coded texts, always watchful of the police.

It’s a running joke that a young Swedish girl could get gang-raped by Syrian immigrants, and the police wouldn’t lift a finger. But if a farmer got caught killing a wolf, they would exhaust every investigative and prosecutorial resource to put him away for years.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is certainly aware of the dissenters among the European Parliament, mainly from the populist or center-right parties.

But instead of accommodating them, she is attempting to reinforce the powers of the unelected Commission by doing away with the existing rule of unanimity when it comes to foreign policy decisions.

For years, Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán vetoed European Commission policies that invariably criticized Israel, supported the Palestinians, or criticized the United States.

His election loss only emboldened Ms. von der Leyen, who frequently clashed with Orbán personally and in public.

Now she wants to allow a simple majority of member states to approve foreign policy dictates, a shift that would essentially create the “tyranny of the majority” America’s founders warned about 250 years ago.

Former Belgian Prime Minister and European Council President Charles Michel is scathing in his criticism of von der Leyen. “Today, the Commission is trying to take control. That’s not in line with the [EU] treaty,” he told a Belgian magazine in April. “There is super authoritarian governance.”

Much but not all of those new powers came during the COVID years and in response to the war in Ukraine. But the anti-democratic gene runs deep among the Eurocrats.

Former Czech President and Prime Minister Václav Klaus lived through decades of Soviet Communism imposed on his country after World War II. Already in 2009, he was warning about the lack of democratic institutions within the EU.

“The present decision-making system of the European Union is different from a classic parliamentary democracy, tested and proven by history… Here, only one single alternative is being promoted, and those who dare think about a different option are labelled as enemies of European integration.

“Not so long ago, in our part of Europe we lived in a political system that permitted no alternatives and therefore also no parliamentary opposition. It was through this experience that we learned the bitter lesson that with no opposition, there is no freedom. That is why political alternatives must exist.”

Europe and the EU are at a crossroads.

Down one road, Europe will become increasingly authoritarian and increasingly centralized, while its founding cultures will be increasingly marginalized and demeaned in favor of Muslim immigration and multiculturalism. These were the faults that led to Brexit, Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

Down another road, Europe will return to its roots, celebrate its diverse cultures and its Christian and Jewish heritage, and honor the wishes of its member states and their people.

Count me skeptical, but I don’t see that democratic alternative on the horizon, at least not yet.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 02:00

What's Behind Trump's Unexpected Favor To Kim Jong Un?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

He might be flirting with a radical policy recalibration even if he soon changes his mind...

Trump unexpectedly announced that the US will “substantially reduce” its participation in the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield large-scale joint military drills with South Korea that he was apparently unaware of till just recently and which began this week. He described his decision as being “Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un” and aimed at not “send[ing] a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile”. He also complained about its costs and South Korea’s refusal to help the US fight Iran.

Trump’s favor to Kim was unexpected because he mentioned North Korea alongside Russia, China, and Iran as “US adversaries” just last month who have the ability to manipulate US elections. His Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby was also in Southeast Asia in early August, where he was replicating the NATO 3.0 concept through what can be called AUKUS+. While it’s mainly aimed at containing China, fearmongering about North Korea could raise its appeal among some South Koreans and Japanese.

On that topic, those two states are US mutual defense allies, and they share similar threat perceptions of China and North Korea. They’re also rapidly militarizing, with South Korea planning to build its first nuclear submarine with American assistance and Japan considering abandoning its Three Non-Nuclear Principles, both of which have heightened regional tensions to the US’ divide-and-rule benefit. The same goes for the latest Russian-Japanese tensions over the Southern Kurils in which the US backs Japan.

It was therefore completely unexpected that Trump would do Kim a favor as significant as “substantially reducing” the US’ participation in its annual large-scale joint military drills with South Korea since this goes against all of the abovementioned policies. While only he can account for his reasons, and it’s possible that he simply felt like it and there’s nothing deeper, it can’t be ruled out that he has some plan in mind. His South Korean counterpart’s recent call to resume talks with the North could provide a hint.

Trump might thus be considering the resumption of his own talks with Kim, whether bilaterally like during his first term and/or somehow connected with his “Board of Peace” initiative, the motivation of which could be a blend of personal and geostrategic calculations. As regards the first, he might want to cement his legacy as a “president of peace” like he’s previously described himself as while also distracting from the political-military debacle of the Third Gulf War that he initiated earlier this year.

On the geostrategic front, Trump might fear that Russia, North Korea, and China could strengthen their military-security ties to the point of a de facto alliance in the face of the challenge that AUKUS+ poses to them all, which could risk World War III by miscalculation if North Korea carries out more nuclear and/or missile tests amidst worsening regional tensions. Essentially, the speculative resumption of Trump-Kim talks could therefore be for escalation-control purposes, though only if they’re successful.

It’s admittedly premature to analyze anything beyond what was already mentioned in this piece, and even that which was written is reasonable conjecture, but it’s nevertheless notable that Trump unexpectedly did such a significant favor for Kim in spite of the rising regional tensions that the US is responsible for. After all, this single move goes against all of the US’ policies in Northeast Asia, so it’s not far-fetched that he might be flirting with a radical policy recalibration even if he soon changes his mind.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 23:50

WSJ Catches Up, Discovers AI's Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities Are $3 Trillion And Growing $1.2 Trillion Per Quarter

More than two months ago, long before most Wall Street analysts had any clue that the bulk of the AI buildout commitments were diligently hidden in various off-balance sheet SPVs and other (perfectly legal) accounting gimmicks, we wrote a lengthy article detailing just that, and explaining why far beyond the $1 trillion (and rapidly rising) in annual plain vanilla capex -- all of which now has to be funded through debt issuance since free cash flow across the hyperscaler universe is negative for the foreseeable future (if not forever) -- which most pundits obsess over daily...

... the real risk was in the "The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle."

The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle https://t.co/2IAxYrTXjL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 12, 2026

We followed up on this critical topic after the latest batch of hyperscaler earnings in late July, which revealed that the nearly $2 trillion in spending commitments had exploded in the second quarter, with just GOOGL and META north of $1.5 trillion, which prompted us to conclude that "across all hypers, off BS commitments are now $3+ trillion, double in one quarter."

*MICROSOFT: LEASES THAT HADN'T COMMENCED $329.1B AS OF JUNE 30

we will be updating the off balance sheet obligations/debt for Q2 soon. It will probably rise by $1TN+ to $3TN.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 29, 2026

The SPV bubble is batshit insane

GOOGL is $826BN and now Meta said it has already committed almost $700 billion in future AI spending (BBG).

Across all hypers, off BS commitments are now $3+ trillion, double in one quarter.
GLTA https://t.co/HyV9ZGgFu5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 30, 2026

Many, traditionally those who had no idea what we were talking about or the implications of the above findings, took the conventional route and either mocked or slighted what we had found. 

But not everyone: first it was Nvidia which, scrambling to distance itself from the circular financings that were meant to fund precisely these kinds of gargantuan off balance sheet SPVs, unveiled its $500 billion arrangement with a handful of private credit firms (an arrangement that was nothing new, as Nvidia had already done just that particular deal on numerous occasions, and it merely formalized it in the form of an open-ended MOU).

Second and more important, two months after our first warnings, the WSJ finally caught up, and in an article over the weekend titled "Why Big Tech’s AI Spending Is $3 Trillion Higher Than It Seems", it confirmed everything we have been reporting since early June.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but WSJ authors Rudegeair and Santilli echoed everything we said in our original report more than two months ago, to wit: 

Each quarter, big tech companies disclose their massive capital expenditures on artificial-intelligence infrastructure, from data centers to chips. But those figures don’t come close to expressing the full extent of future spending to which Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and many others have committed. That is because a huge swath of their coming financial obligations aren’t reflected on their balance sheets.

Nine top tech companies had some $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly related to AI, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of footnotes in their most recent securities filings. Those obligations are growing faster than traditional “capex,” which totaled about $600 billion over the past year they reported, and were about triple what the companies owe under their outstanding leases and long-term borrowings.

Back in June, we showed this staggering surge in off balance sheet purchase commitment as follows. Needless to say, the latest number is substantially higher.

And this is how the WSJ compared side by side the on (capex) vs off balance sheet obligations at the 6 hyperscalers. Needless to say, the management teams at the big AI spenders are doing everything in their power to cover up just how spectacularly massive their true spending plans are.

The WSJ also takes a look at the off B/S SPVs we have been discussing ever since we explained back in January why Meta's Beignet funding model will be imitated by all of its peers throughout 2026 and onward.

As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl "Project Beignet" for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META's balance sheet.

Expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026 https://t.co/794EgSiiZ9 pic.twitter.com/7hMyVW6Lno

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2026

Of course, that's precisely what happened and this is how the WSJ lays out the funding of Meta’s gigantic “Hyperion” data-center project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1,700 football fields, and which "helps explain how big obligations wind up off tech companies’ balance sheets."

Meta initially agreed to lease Hyperion for a four-year term starting in 2029, with options to renew for up to 20 years. It guaranteed that it would make bondholders whole if it doesn’t stay the entire two decades. The company doesn’t think payments under that guarantee are probable, so it hasn’t recorded any liability on its balance sheet.

In accordance with accounting rules, Meta’s Hyperion lease obligations will remain off balance sheet until it starts paying rent. It said its aggregate initial lease commitment is about $12.3 billion. Meta disclosed $347 billion in total obligations for leases that haven’t kicked in yet, including for Hyperion, as of June.

This is the WSJ's version of our graphic from 8 months ago: 

Remember what we said about expecting "hundreds of these in 2026?" Apparently it came as a surprise to the WSJ, which writes that "across the companies the Journal analyzed, promises of payments under these uncommenced leases totaled $1.2 trillion in off-balance–sheet obligations, or about four times more than what was disclosed a year earlier. In addition to Meta, the Journal reviewed commitments for Alphabet, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom, SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices."

Of course, as we explained two months ago, the uncommenced leases are just a part of the off B/S liabilities. There's much more: 

"Data centers get stuffed with a lot of hardware, including the Nvidia chips that are used to train and run models and memory chips that store information. To buy all that, companies sign long-term contractual agreements well in advance to lock in production from their suppliers."

... which is why Nvidia has the most to lose if funding deals that enable the AI bubble aren't in place, which is precisely why the company rushed and forced the various private credit firms to deliver the $500 billion deal announced last week. Putting a number to it: 

"Those and other purchase obligations at the companies the Journal examined stand at a whopping $1.9 trillion. Under accounting rules, purchase commitments typically remain off balance sheet until a product or service is delivered."

The uncommenced leases and purchase commitments are the bulk of the off balance sheet "ticking time bomb" we discussed in June. Only then it was $1.8 trillion. It has since grown by 50% to $3 trillion.... in two months! And this is how the WSJ redid another one of our June charts:

What happens next depends very much on whether or is an optimist... or not.

For the former, the WSJ says that "there are reasons to believe tech companies will make good on all their obligations. Optimists see the skyrocketing demand for AI tools—which has lifted the stock market and led to shortages of key hardware—as a proof point that demand is going to be strong for years, and the money to pay off all these bills will be rolling in."

As for the others, well the problems are only starting. First, this unprecedented explosion in off balance sheet liabilities in "a worrying sign that some tech companies that once seemed to have fortress balance sheets have needed to tap the capital markets frequently."

Alphabet and Amazon recently posted results showing negative free cash flow, meaning their capital spending exceeded the cash they brought in from operating their businesses."

And that is before considering the implications of trillions in off-balance–sheet commitments. Whether or not the revenues ever arrive, purchase commitments and signed leases can’t be canceled, for the most part. 

The worst case scenarios is that these tech giants companies, which until recently had pristine balance sheets will be paying an expensive tab for infrastructure that they can’t profitably use "if things go wrong." These obligations could also lead increasingly indebted companies to have to borrow even more.

One way such a catastrophic scenario may happen, is if Chinese open-weight models accelerate their market share grab by dramatically undercutting the token prices of frontier models (as they have been doing), and lead to a collapse in hyperscaler profits as compute creation shifts to China and its far cheaper chips, not to mention far more abundant sources of cheap energy... which is precisely what is happening right now, with token prices in historic free fall, crashing more than 50% in just the past few weeks as Chinese open-models unleash a historic race to the bottom.

And since the entire WSJ is effectively re-print of what we said in early June, we will leave readers with our conclusion from then as it is just as accurate today as it was two months ago (and $1.2 trillion less in off balance sheet obligations).

Vendor financing and repurchase-style arrangements mean a single counterparty's stress can propagate through several balance sheets at once. Think of it as rehypothecated leverage. Concentration compounds it: the >$2tn of remaining performance obligations across major AI players is built on a handful of very large, long-duration contracts, so the backlog that justifies the spending is also a concentrated counterparty exposure.

The off-balance-sheet items aren't fraudulent or even unusual accounting — they're mostly standard treatment. The hazard is timing and visibility, and it shows up in three deferred effects:

Capex is being committed ahead of the revenue and free cash flow meant to support it; capex revisions have run well ahead of sales and FCF revisions. The depreciation from all this spending is largely still deferred, rising construction-in-progress balances (ORCL ~+200%, META ~+90% YoY) mean today's margins haven't yet absorbed the expense already locked in. And when it does land, cumulative depreciation for MSFT, ORCL, META, and GOOGL could exceed $520bn over three years, pushing depreciation as a share of revenue sharply higher (ORCL potentially 7%→28%, META 9%→19% by FY28). To hold margins, every other cost line has to fall — which only works if sales rise to match, and so far they haven't kept pace.

Even a careful analyst can't fully size the exposure, because classification and disclosure are inconsistent. Whether a compute-capacity deal even counts as a lease turns on judgment calls (does the contract specify a particular GPU/rack, who controls the workloads, etc.). Disclosure varies accordingly: Nvidia quantified $30bn of cloud-service commitments and Oracle $10bn, while Meta declined to quantify the cloud-capacity portion of its $238bn in commitments. That inconsistency means any cross-company comparison of "true" leverage rests on differing materiality judgments — so the aggregate numbers, large as they are, are themselves uncertain.

The good news is that, for now, the risks aren't an imminent solvency problem, but a set of timing and disclosure mismatches - a deferred depreciation wall, capex running ahead of monetization, leverage migrating into the supplier/private-credit layer, and classification judgments that make true capital intensity hard to compare across companies. For their part, hyperscalers have taken advantage of the current moment of market euphoria to raise as much capital as they can, aware that the window will eventually shut. The question is when sentiment turns, and when all these funding conduits are shut, will there be enough funding to sustain the AI revolution for the foreseeable future. Of course, this question becomes moot if demand shifts, and instead of buying the latest and greatest offering from Anthropic or OpenAI for a stratospheric number of tokens, consumers and enterprises turn to dirt-cheap alternatives from China which offer 90% of the performance of frontier models for a fraction of the cost, then all bets are off.

Much more in our full must-read (as the WSJ clearly found) report from June, as well as the  "AI Ecosystem: Charting Recent Trends"  report available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 23:29

China's YMTC Is Now World's 3rd Biggest Flash-Memory Supplier With 14% Market Share

Earlier today we reported that China's highly touted DRAM memory maker CXMT recently surpassed Tencent to become China's most valuable company.

That may be just the start, because hot on the heels of the biggest Chinese IPO this decade, comes that "other" Chinese memory maker, Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation (YMTC) which has now broken into the world’s top three NAND flash memory suppliers by volume for the first time, marking a milestone for China’s semiconductor ambitions as it strives to narrow the revenue gap with global rivals in high-value data-center storage.

The Wuhan-based chipmaker captured 14% of global NAND bit shipments – a measure of total storage capacity shipped rather than total chip units – in the second quarter, narrowly overtaking Japan’s Kioxia, according to data from Counterpoint Research published on Wednesday.

Samsung Electronics retained the global lead with a 25% market share, while SK Hynix – including its Solidigm subsidiary – was second at 22%.

YMTC’s shipments climbed 22% year on year and 5% quarter on quarter, driven by expanding supplies to domestic electronics manufacturers and the increased production of its latest-generation 3D NAND architecture, Counterpoint said.

Despite its surge in shipment volume, YMTC’s market position lags in dollar terms. The company ranked fifth globally in NAND revenue for the quarter, placing it behind both US-based Micron Technology and Kioxia.

The gap stems from YMTC’s heavy exposure to lower-margin consumer products and a relatively small footprint in enterprise solid-state drives (eSSDs), which command higher pricing.

The product mix imbalance is increasingly squeezing revenue as artificial intelligence reshapes global storage demand.

eSSDs accounted for 48% of total global NAND bit shipments in the second quarter, nearly doubling their 26% share from a year earlier. Counterpoint attributed the surge to a broader shift in AI workloads from model training towards inference, which requires vast amounts of fast storage for frequently accessed data sets.

The research firm projected server eSSDs would account for more than half of all NAND bits shipped by the end of the year.

To capture this higher-margin market, YMTC planned to shift its product mix further towards eSSDs in the second half of the year to cement its third-place global standing, supported by expanding avenues for capital, Counterpoint said.

The strategy comes as YMTC continues to scale its manufacturing operations despite years of US trade restrictions designed to limit its access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Morgan Stanley said in May that YMTC was increasing utilization in its second fabrication plant in Wuhan while advancing construction and tool installation at a third facility. The bank estimated the company would add about 35,000 wafers per month of capacity this year, with substantially larger increases planned for 2027 and 2028.

The expansion aligns with Beijing’s push to localise China’s AI infrastructure, which would drive growing domestic demand for home-grown eSSDs and high-bandwidth memory through installation in data centres, Bernstein Research said in May.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 23:00

Fake News, Part I: The Long History

Authored by John Maxwell Hamilton via RealClearPolitics,

In 1896, a daring journalist covering the Cuban revolution against their colonial masters crossed the Spanish lines three times to interview insurgent leaders. William Francis Mannix's final trip into the Cuban interior was made at the request of the leader of the insurgent government, Salvador Cisneros Betancourt. El Presidente Cisneros wanted the intrepid correspondent to carry back an appeal begging for support from the American people.

Mannix's riveting reports appeared on the front page of the New York Times and other leading newspapers. After the Spanish expelled Mannix from Cuba, he was invited to speak to the National Geographic Society and other prestigious gatherings. The Cuban appeal was published in the Congressional Record. "I applaud and approve every word in that splendid appeal," said Alabama Sen. John T. Morgan, who supported U.S. government intervention to help the Cuban rebels.

The nation's leading newspapers decried Spain's subsequent expulsion of Mannix from Cuba. The Washington Star, another newspaper that carried Mannix's dispatches, said he was being banished "for having told the truth about insurgents and their cause."

Mannix scored a journalistic triumph, but it was not one that his editors, legislators, or readers imagined. His three trips over enemy lines and his stories, including the Cisneros appeal, were all fakes. Mannix wrote them while sitting in the bar of the Moscotte Hotel in Havana or - for a change of scenery - on the hotel's veranda.

In an October 2017 interview on Fox News, President Donald Trump said, "I've really started this whole 'fake news' thing." He called it "one of the greatest of all the terms I've come up with." But faking has a long history. No journalist surpassed Mannix as a fabulist in Cuba, but many followed in his footsteps on the island. Their fabricated sensationalizing reached such proportions that a book-length expose was devoted to the subject on the eve of the United States entering war with Spain. It was called Facts and Fakes About Cuba.

This article and two that follow give perspective on three aspects of fake news: its long history, its attraction to readers, and the consequences of political fake news.

The power of modern technology to pollute streams of information has made fake news seem terrifyingly new. Russian bots flood the Internet with horrifying stories that did not happen. Political operatives produce AI-generated videos of despicable speeches their opponents did not deliver. Your crazy cousin spreads word in his social media posts that President Trump's supporters staged the assassination attempts on his life. As to the latter, a NewsGuard/YouGov poll recently found that almost one-third of Americans believe at least one of the three attempts on Trump's life was staged.

Modern technology is a force multiplier for falsehood. But technology is not the root cause. The launching pad is and always has been people: people who for a variety of reasons want to mislead, and people who for a variety of reasons find falsehood more satisfying than fact. Fake news goes back much further than the computer, the television, the radio, the typewriter, or the printing press.

The history of mankind has been a history of the battle between truth and falsehood. The ancient Greeks created gods in their own image by naming them Apate (fraud), Dolos (guile), and Pheme (rumor). The Roman poet Virgil wrote in the Aeneid of the goddess Rumor:

Her frightening mingle of truth and lies,/ Rhapsodically singing about them in the darkness,/ And all the people hear what she is singing.

One place Rumor did her work was on a busy street corner near the Piazza Navona. Beginning in the 16th century, Romans surreptitiously placed false malicious notes about public figures on a statue of Pasquino, who in legend was supposed to be a local tailor and wit. The name of the mendacious notes lives on as pasquinades.

Buttered news

In the years leading up to the French Revolution, historian Robert Darnton documented that France was awash in misinformation. Craque was slang for fake news. The word mimicked the cracking sound of branches around the Tree of Crakow in Paris, where people gathered in the same way the English did at St. Paul's Cathedral. St. Paul's, where pamphlets were sold and gossip exchanged, was called "the mint of all famous lies."

A hinge point in fake news came in the 1620s, when London printer Nathaniel Butter published the first serialized English-language commercial newspaper, "The News of this Present Week." As soon as it and others like it appeared, discerning critics ridiculed the emergence of "buttered news."

Butter's newspaper could not have appeared without moveable type and the printing press, but this technology had been around for some time. What changed was the emergence of a growing middle class who could read and had disposable income to spend on news - even news of dubious provenance.

Butter and those who joined him in the newsbook business were only beginning to understand journalism. They sometimes published the oldest news first, as if to keep things in order. The British crown constrained them by forbidding the publication of domestic news. Forced to go abroad, they relied on second-hand reports, the spicier the better. A typical article read, "A strange apparition at Rome, of two mighty armies," whose battle in the air was followed by a storm of "blood and fire from heaven." According to one historian, "Roughly one-tenth of these early newspapers contained some sort of apparition, vision, or monstrous-birth item," such as boy-girl twins born to a Swiss cow.

Not all falsehood is fake

We need to be clear about definitions. Fake news is intentional falsification. A factual error in a newspaper is not fake news. It is a mistake. A mistake may be due to sloppy newsgathering or an accidental slip. It may call for firing the reporter. But the author did not aim to deceive. It wasn't a hoax.

Politicians find it convenient to overlook these definitional niceties. They discredit factual news that makes them look bad by calling it "fake news." They become the fakers.

The term fake news was routinely splashed across the pages of American newspapers in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Each day readers were greeted by headlines like these: "Malicious Fake News." "Fake News Again." "Bit of Fake News." "Concerning Fake News." "More Fake 'News.'" "Fake Stories Afloat." "Fake News. Pope Has Died Twenty-Two Times in Five Years."

The faking habit waned as the 20th century rolled on. First, the cost of starting a new newspaper soared, so it was more difficult for scallywags to wade into the gutter. Second, the intense competition for readers drove the least profitable newspapers out of business. Those that were left found they earned more money by competing on the basis of reliability. Balanced fact-based reports attracted more readers than partisan news. Advertisers preferred to see their products promoted in credible publications.

Of course, some newspapers were outliers. The New York Graphic billed itself as offering "Nothing But the Truth" and then made a merry practice of lying. Long before modern technology made it easy to fake photographs, the Graphic pasted real-life faces on posed bodies. These appeared alongside made-up lonely heart stories.

Many years later fakes still appeared newspapers. In 1980 the Washington Post won a Pulitzer Prize for "Jimmy's World," a story about an 8-year-old heroin addict fabricated by reporter Janet Cooke. A fake in the New York Times the next year was eerily similar to William Mannix's in Cuba. Freelancer Christopher Jones, hired by the Times magazine, invented a detailed story about spending a month with Khmer Rouge guerrillas, who were in hiding in Cambodia. He never left Spain.

But ethical standards had set in by that time. The Graphic went bankrupt in 1932. Its debts amounted to millions. The Post issued a lengthy mea culpa and returned the Pulitzer Prize. When the New York Times realized that Jones might not have been on the up and up, the executive editor assigned three reporters to determine conclusively that the story was a fabrication and then apologized profusely.

We are now back to the buttered days of journalism for the opposite reason we left them behind. The legacy media, as the old established media are called, carry on, albeit in smaller numbers and with generally lower profits. Meanwhile a tidal wave of new, irresponsible media has emerged. The costs of entry are low, and ethics is often considered a nuisance. These news outlets are as eager to fake as Nathaniel Butter and William Mannix were.

Our attraction to fakers like these will be the subject of Part II.

John Maxwell Hamilton, an RCP columnist, is at work on a biography of the journalist-faker William Francis Mannix. His recent book Manipulating the Masses: Woodrow Wilson and the Birth of American Propaganda won the Goldsmith Prize.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 22:35

US Navy Destroyer Suffered 4-Day Power Outage In Sweltering South China Sea

Large US naval battleships continue to suffer problems at sea. While there have been many headlines of late detailing the problems of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier connected to its extended deployment amid the Iran war, a separate warship is having serious problems in Pacific waters, quite apart from the crisis in the Persian Gulf.

"A US Navy guided-missile destroyer spent four days last month without working toilets, galley services and air conditioning in the blistering heat of the South China Sea after the warship lost power," CNN reports.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer Benfold. US Navy/AP

The military has since confirmed an engineering failure which caused the significant outage, which basically shut down all the ship's systems, including the ability to maneuver on its own.

A US 7th Fleet statement identified that the USS Benfold, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, was on routine operations in the Indo-Pacific on when an "engineering casualty involving its generators" occurred. 

It happened on July 24, and has now set back additional operations. It was supposed to be part of the USS George Washington strike group which is at the moment headed to the Middle East in order to relieve the Lincoln carrier. 

However, the Benfold is still stuck in Asian waters. "There were no injuries to the crew, who demonstrated resilience, grit, professionalism, and unwavering steadiness in their response," the US Navy statement said.

The four-day crisis impacted the ship's galley services, toilets, air conditioning and potable water, the 7th Fleet also confirmed. The heat would have been sweltering.

No explanations have been given as to how the crew managed the waste problem. USNI, which first reported the crisis, describes of the repair process:

The George Washington Carrier Strike Group supported the destroyer, according to 7th Fleet. USS Robert Smalls (CG-62), the cruiser attached to the George Washington Carrier Strike Group, helped provide meals for the crew, Comer said.

Contractor tugboats towed Benfold to Subic Bay where it was met by personnel from the Ship Repair Facility – Japan Regional Maintenance Center on July 28, with crew receiving contracted lodging off the ship the next day. Power was restored on July 30, Comer said.

All repairs were completed by Aug. 7 when the ship completed a berth shift for fuel. The destroyer left Subic Bay on Aug. 8.

Benfold, which had been sailing with the George Washington Carrier Strike Group, pulled into Yokosuka, Japan, on Thursday, according to ship spotters. It did not transit the Malacca Strait with the other ships of the GW CSG, which are likely heading toward the Middle East.

The timing of this engineering failure incident is very bad for the navy, given already there's much scrutiny being placed on long deployments at sea connected to the Iran conflict.

US Navy destroyer left without working toilets, food service or AC for FOUR DAYS after losing power in sweltering South China Sea

USS Benfold suffered generator failure on July 24, leaving its crew without basic amenities amid blistering heat — 7th Fleet spox confirms to CNN pic.twitter.com/CJBm5r7jv1

— Michael Ashura (@MichaelAshura) August 17, 2026

Congressional leaders are currently focused on the beleaguered USS Abraham Lincoln, amid reports of problems in supplying the ship and mental health problems following a record-deployment.

The Hill reports Monday that "A group of 15 senators said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth owes Americans answers about the ongoing deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group after reports of low morale and a mental health crisis among service members aboard."

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 22:10

Entering The Gates Of Lies: Unmasking The Climate Version Of Theranos

Authored by Sydney Rodman via RealClearEnergy,

One of President Trump's campaign promises was eliminating climate scams. As net-zero climate policies fade into the shadows, another climate scam is biting the dust.

Bill Gates's daughter, Phoebe Gates, may not have her father's entrepreneurial talent, but she, too, frequently peddles climate alarmism. Mr. Gates, however, renounced climate doomerism last year in a widely-shared memo.

A recent media investigation determined the younger Gates and her cofounder, climate influencer Sophia Kianni's self-described sustainable e-commerce startup, Phia, was reportedly collecting sales commissions it had not earned. Phia was marketed as a climate-friendly platform that directed shoppers to secondhand products. Unsurprisingly, the startup created its own climate of lies.

Phia claims to be climate-friendly by promoting secondhand clothing options. Co-founder Sophia Kianni described Phia as having a fundamental "sustainability aspect ... buying an item secondhand actually represents an 80% reduction in carbon footprint compared to buying new." Before studying at Stanford University, Ms. Kianni founded a major Left-wing climate activism organization called Climate Cardinals and served as a climate ambassador at COP27 in Egypt. Gates, for her part, frequently touts her sustainability and climate bona fides. Like father, like daughter.

On the surface, Phia appeared to be successful and profitable. The company secured considerable amounts of seed funding, totaling over $43 million, and had a reported valuation of $185 million by early 2026.

Yet, Phia reportedly was cheating the system. The startup was allegedly using computer code to claim it facilitated numerous purchases - and thus collect a portion of sales - that it had nothing to do with. According to computer experts who investigated the coding behind Phia's platform, a plug-in extension, quietly, unknown to the user, opened an invisible tab in the background. Doing so digitally registered Phia, falsely, as an affiliate marketer involved in the online transaction. Since some revenue in online commerce automatically goes to the affiliate marketer who was the final click before the user's purchase, Phia made itself that final click - even though it was not - and earned millions.

Just as damning, Phia's damage-control efforts sowed more doubts about their fishy operations. Phia's spokesperson responded to allegations, stating that "as soon as we were notified, our team worked overnight to identify, mitigate, and has since resolved the issue." In other words, the company supposedly resolved the issue, but didn't deny any wrongdoing.

Phia's reputation could be in jeopardy. It received investment from celebrities such as Sydney Sweeney, Khloé Kardashian, Jessica Alba, Kris Jenner, and Hailey Bieber. Those investors may now wonder how much deception and incompetence is going on behind the scenes related to other facets of Phia's business model. In fact, this isn't Phia's first scandal. In November, Phia was reportedly busted capturing a "concerning amount of user data," according to reports, including collecting users' banking information.

A former senior executive for Climate Cardinals, who wishes to stay anonymous, has now come forward about Kianni's mismanagement style to the author. The anonymous whistleblower shared, "I was involved for two years and we didn't really do anything. It ruined my perspective for prestige." The whistleblower alleges that a company executive told him "all the numbers on the website are artificially inflated. None of them are real." Soon after, the company experienced a mass exodus of personnel, who decided that, in the source's words, they "no longer wanted to be part of the lies." After Kianni migrated to Phia, her past stayed with her. In order to get ahead, Sophia lied about a fake assistant and even bragged about it.

It is worth asking: is Phia on the path to being Theranos 2.0? The parallels to Theranos, the disastrous tech startup that investigative journalists exposed as being among the greatest scams of modern times - ultimately costing investors hundreds of millions of dollars - are uncanny. Oddly enough, founders of both companies started their company at Stanford and faced rejection there, helping place a "chip on their shoulder," in Phoebe Gates's words.

Both of these startups had great ideas in theory - but they did not survive reality. In fact, they never tried. That is also the case for the climate movement writ large.

Climate alarmism, itself a scam, is a macrocosm of the Phia story. It's a movement based on activism, not facts, and its fundamental claims don't hold up under scrutiny. Climate programs also received billions of government funds under President Biden, until the judicious Trump administration took notice and ended the gravy train. Falsehoods and fear mongering can be quite lucrative.

Phia should serve as a cautionary tale for the future of so-called climate investment - and the climate movement itself.

Sydney Rodman is a visiting fellow at Independent Women's Center for Energy and Conservation.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 21:45

Police Attacked During Massive "Teen Brawl" At Wisconsin State Fair

The establishment media commonly uses strategic phrases to hide or omit the truth behind certain uncomfortable situations.  Since the BLM era, journalists cannot simply describe a violent mob as a "black mob", even if that description is generally true.  Today, one must say the words "teen brawl" in order to avoid any implications of race. 

It's a very similar tactic to those used by the media in the UK whenever a migrant (or child of migrants) commits a brutal crime - Simply call the suspect a "London Man" or a "Liverpool Man" or a "Glasgow Man" and hope no one asks questions.

In the US, whenever the media uses the words "teen brawl", it's easy to conclude who was involved.  The fatigue is real.

Over the weekend the Wisconsin State Fair in West Allis (a suburb of Milwaukee) experienced yet another of these seemingly spontaneous outbreaks of chaos when a horde of "teens" flooded into the event and began randomly attacking anyone nearby.  It should be noted that even the witnesses are reticent to admit who the culprits were, choosing their words carefully. 

Witness accounts report that law enforcement officers on scene were also targeted, with multiple police suffering injuries.  Dispatch audio indicates chaotic moments near the rides. "They need some help at Spin City. Send anybody extra you have," one police officer could be heard saying. 

🚨#BREAKING: Absolute CHAOS broke out at the Wisconsin State Fair as "teens" began BEATING ANYONE IN SIGHT.

MULTIPLE police officers were badly beaten, as families with kids were seen RUNNING FOR THEIR LIVES as teens began brawling.

WE DON'T HAVE TO LIVE LIKE THIS!!! pic.twitter.com/gBbE73ph3f

— Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) August 17, 2026

Last day of the Wisconsin State Fair.

They went on a rampage. Anyone they could get their hands on. Shots were allegedly fired.

They’re calling it Killwaukee now.

We can’t keep living like this, something has to change. pic.twitter.com/AJ7Xi3BPiZ

— Kim "Katie" USA (@KimKatieUSA) August 17, 2026

Local news reports show police attempting to break up the fights, but the assailants swarm into the fairground crowds to avoid arrest.  Roving mob fights involving black "youths" are common at state fairs across the region every year.  The Minnesota State Fair reported similar incidents last year and rumors suggest a "bigger brawl" is likely this year.

It’s not just Wisconsin.

This was the Minnesota State Fair last year—and the year before there was a shooting in the midway.

Every year it gets more and more violent. I wonder why🤔#fight#statefair https://t.co/ktUFWO8377 pic.twitter.com/7Um9Tc6oYy

— AmyLouWho (@perseverare1776) August 17, 2026

Why start brutal fights at the state fair?  Maybe because the whole point is to ruin everyone else's day.  Maybe the point is simply to create chaos and bask in the violence and misery.  What is clear is that events that used to be safe for families are being turned into open melees just so urban demographics can revel in their own lack of impulse control.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 21:20

Deep Capture: The Administrative State's Intellectual Origins

Authored by Sofia Karstens via Brownstone Institute,

Woodrow Wilson holds a distinction no other American president has: he earned a Ph.D., completing his doctorate in political science and history at Johns Hopkins University in 1886. That same year, he wrote an essay called "The Study of Administration," later published in the inaugural volume of Political Science Quarterly. Historians widely credit this essay as the founding document of public administration as a formal academic field, and Wilson himself as the father of that discipline.

Wilson's central argument was that government should be split into two separate domains: politics, where elected officials set broad goals and policy direction, and administration, a technical, expert-driven sphere that should be run with "large powers and unhampered discretion" and insulated from day-to-day political interference.

Wilson suggested that government ought to be removed from the political process...in other words: "Democracy is too important to be left to voters." He explicitly encouraged American reformers to study European administrative models - including Prussia's - for lessons in efficiency, arguing that the US had fallen behind other nations in developing a science of government administration.

Later scholars have debated how far Wilson actually intended this separation to go, and some interpret his argument as calling for administrators to be almost entirely removed from political accountability. His essay laid the intellectual groundwork for what would become the modern professional civil service - insulated from patronage and run by career administrators rather than political appointees or elected officials.

The Frankfurt School's American Exile

Nearly 50 years later, a very different intellectual tradition found refuge in the same city that Wilson's ideas would eventually help administer. Max Horkheimer became director of the Institute for Social Research in Frankfurt, Germany in 1930, leading a group of thinkers who developed what became known as Critical Theory. Its core members included Theodor Adorno, Herbert Marcuse, Erich Fromm, and Leo Lowenthal. Critical Theory is a philosophical framework that analyzes power structures and social inequalities.

Developed by the Frankfurt School in the 1930s and 1940s, it shifted Marxism from a strict economic focus to a critique of culture, media, and modern society. Critical Theory was a different way of looking at philosophy; where philosophy was a search for truth - trying to explain phenomena and things that were not easily proven by science (ethics for example) - Critical Theory shifted to look at philosophy specifically through the lens of Marxism. It became no longer a search for truth but a means of propagandizing, which some would argue was a betrayal of philosophy.

When the Nazis seized power in 1933, Horkheimer was forced to relocate the group first to Geneva and then to New York, where it formed a loose affiliation with Columbia University in 1934-35. Horkheimer's actual scholarly project - laid out in works like Dialectic of Enlightenment and Eclipse of Reason - described how instrumental reason, mass culture, and authoritarianism are able to take hold in modern societies.

It was also between 1933 and 1937 that several regulatory agencies were established that would come to form the backbone of the modern Administrative State.

Port Huron and the Old/New Left Split

By the early 1960s, the American left was largely defined by an older tradition: labor unions, industrial organizing, and class-based politics rooted in the fights of the 1930s and '40s. In June 1962, a group of Socialist Organization representatives, student activists, organized labor unions, civil rights leaders, and foreign observers gathered in Port Huron, Michigan, and produced a document that would come to mark a generational break from that tradition.

Students for a Democratic Society had grown out of the Student League for Industrial Democracy, the youth wing of an older Socialist educational group called the League for Industrial Democracy, which itself traced back to the Intercollegiate Socialist Society founded in 1905. In early 1960, that student branch renamed itself Students for a Democratic Society.

The manifesto produced at Port Huron was drafted primarily by Tom Hayden, a University of Michigan student and former editor of the Michigan Daily, working from ideas that blended the sociology of Columbia's C. Wright Mills and Walter Reuther with the direct-action tactics of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee. The week-long meeting brought together groups who wrote, debated, and voted on a 60-page document. Notably, it took place at a United Auto Workers retreat, with the UAW under Reuther's leadership covering a range of the convention's costs. Inside circles among Reuther's contemporaries referred to it as "The Long Journey."

The statement opened with a line that became its signature: "We are people of this generation, bred in at least modest comfort, housed now in universities, looking uncomfortably to the world we inherit." Its authors argued that two forces had shaken them out of complacency - the civil rights struggle against racial bigotry in the South, and the threat of nuclear war under the Cold War's shadow.

Where the Old Left had organized around labor and class struggle, Port Huron's New Left shifted the terrain. It called for a "participatory democracy" in which ordinary people - not just union leaders or party bosses - would have a direct hand in the decisions shaping their lives, workplaces, schools, and government. It criticized both American Cold War policy and Soviet communism, explicitly opposing the Soviet system's suppression of organized dissent. And because the statement judged the civil rights, peace, and student movements too poor and marginalized to drive change on their own, and organized labor too quiet, it looked instead to universities - which it saw as institutions open to people of nearly any viewpoint who could be recruited as "useful innocents" (often mistranslated as "useful idiots") to carry the water - as the engine of a new movement. Media, unions, high schools, and elementary schools were to follow.

The Port Huron Statement went on to shape the framing of Great Society-era politics, the anti-Vietnam War movement, and the broader counterculture that carried into the early 1970s. Historians and participants alike have described it as the founding document of the New Left and a turning point.

The Modern Left's Long March

The strategic logic for how a university-centered movement might expand its influence beyond campus came from Germany. West German student movement leader Rudi Dutschke, nicknamed "Red Rudi," coined the phrase "der Lange Marsch Durch die Institutionen" (the long march through the institutions), borrowing the "long march" imagery from Mao's Chinese Communist Red Army march of 1934-35. The idea was that instead of pursuing a frontal revolutionary confrontation with the state, radicals should embed themselves inside existing institutions and overtake them from within over time. The name (and indeed his nickname) was a deliberate echo of the Chinese Communist Party.

Herbert Marcuse (The Frankfurt School) explicitly endorsed the approach of pursuing radical change not through revolution but by working patiently inside the institutions of government and civil society until they were captured and transformed from within. Writing to Dutschke in 1971 he intoned: "Your notion of the 'long march through the institutions' is the only effective way" forward for the movement. Marcuse became an enthusiastic backer of the strategy, and summarized Dutschke's strategy in his 1972 book Counterrevolution and Revolt as "working against the established institutions while working within them."

He described infiltrating while learning their actual skills and functions rather than simply obstructing them; by "not simply 'boring from within' but by 'doing the job'...learning how to program and read computers, how to teach at all levels of education, how to use the mass media, how to organize production, how to recognize and eschew planned obsolescence.

Writing nearly three decades later, cultural critic Roger Kimball invoked this same Marcusean formulation to explain how the radicalism of the 1960s ultimately achieved its aims not through revolution but through patient institutional capture - "by insinuation and infiltration rather than by confrontation" (The Long March: How the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s Changed America). The result, as later commentators (The Successful Long March Through the Institutions, The American Vision) have characterized it, was a transformation accomplished without open conflict: "Not a shot was fired. No one was forced into concentration camps. Millions of parents willingly sent their children into public schools and universities systems..." that had, by then, been reshaped from within. Effectively replacing "bloody revolutions from without" with institutional capture from within.

Dutschke's thinking is often linked to the earlier work of Antonio Gramsci, the imprisoned Italian Marxist theorist who argued that revolution in developed Western societies wouldn't come from a single decisive uprising but from a slow "war of position" - a patient campaign to win cultural and institutional influence over time. While there's no direct evidence Dutschke had read Gramsci when he coined the term, notably, his diaries and biography reference other influences, including Georg Lukacs, Che Guevara, and Mao Zedong.

Khrushchev famously said "We will bury you," which he later clarified to mean that communism would trounce capitalism. The Long March Through the Institutions is reminiscent of the Marxist/Communist concept of the "Vanguard State" as the "bridge" between a Capitalist state and a Socialist/Communist state.

Marcus Raskin and the Institute for Policy Studies

One American figure who embodied this institution-building, infiltrating strategy was Marcus Raskin. Born in Milwaukee in 1934 to Russian immigrant parents, Raskin studied at the University of Chicago, where he earned his law degree in 1957. During his time at Chicago, Raskin studied under Rexford Tugwell, who was a Columbia economist and a key member of Franklin Roosevelt's "Brain Trust."

It was Tugwell who had suggested that it would be necessary to collect money (from the American people) to begin the process of creating an Administrative State.

In 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, requiring most Americans to surrender their gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the Federal Reserve in exchange for paper dollars, citing that private gold hoarding was worsening the Depression. The following year, the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 revalued gold from $20.67 to $35 an ounce - a roughly 69 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold - which meant the government profited handsomely on the gold it had just collected at the lower price. Tugwell was among the New Deal's most influential architects of expanded federal planning, helping design agencies like the Agricultural Adjustment Administration and the Resettlement Administration. The devaluation, paired with an expanded money supply, gave Washington greater fiscal room to fund Administrative State projects.

After Chicago under Tugwell, Raskin went on to work as legislative counsel for several Congressmen in the late 1950s, then joined the Kennedy administration's National Security Council in 1961 as an aide to McGeorge Bundy. He resigned in 1962, citing his opposition to the Cuban Missile Crisis response. In 1963, alongside fellow Kennedy-administration alumnus Richard Barnet, Raskin co-founded the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) in Washington, D.C. - widely described as the first independent progressive think tank, built explicitly on the idea that the systemic change they wanted couldn't be achieved from inside government, and would instead have to come through social movements and infiltrating institutions.

IPS was closely tied to the New Left from the start. Historian Brian Mueller has written that IPS "epitomized the ideals of the New Left, especially those found in the 1962 Port Huron Statement" and, in fact, a 1962 prospectus Raskin wrote for IPS contained ideas strikingly similar to Port Huron's. Fellow IPS founder Arthur Waskow joined SDS in 1963, and both men wrote for the New Left magazine Ramparts.

IPS drew sustained scrutiny throughout the Cold War for its foreign-policy positions. The House Committee on Internal Security and later conservative critics documented Raskin and Barnet's contacts with North Vietnamese communist officials during the Vietnam War, Raskin's board membership at Ramparts (which the same committee called "pro-Hanoi, pro-Castro") and, later, in the 1980s, IPS-organized conferences with Soviet officials that a bipartisan group of roughly 80 members of Congress warned could be used for Soviet intelligence purposes.

Carter, Ink, and the Reshaping of Federal Administration

The administrative machinery Wilson had theorized decades earlier took its modern shape under President Carter. By 1977, Carter had concluded that the federal civil service system needed its first comprehensive overhaul since the Pendleton Act of 1883. The opportunity came in the aftermath of Watergate and amid broader public distrust of government institutions. In March 1978, he sent Congress his reform proposal; after 13 days of hearings and testimony from more than 200 witnesses, Congress passed the Civil Service Reform Act, and Carter signed it into law that October - just over seven months after it was introduced.

The Act abolished the US Civil Service Commission and split its functions among three new agencies: the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which handles federal personnel policy; the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB), which adjudicates federal employee appeals; and the Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA), which oversees federal labor-management relations.

The reform's chief architect and implementer was Dwight Ink, a career federal executive who had served in every presidential administration since Eisenhower. Ink had already built a formidable reputation of cutting through red tape and quickly executing major government overhauls, earning him the nickname "Mr. Implementation." Ink himself later wrote that he couldn't recall any other government-wide management reform as broad as the 1978 act being enacted so quickly. The transformation was praised by Marcus Raskin's intellectual incubator, IPS, which has documented ties to the American Communist Party and drove DNC capture between 1972 and 1978.

That same year, Carter signed a second landmark law. The Inspector General Act of 1978 established 12 statutory offices of Inspector General across major federal departments and agencies, giving each the authority to audit internal agency documents, investigate fraud, and report findings both to their agency heads and directly to Congress every six months. By 1988 additional IGs had been added for smaller independent agencies, and there are now 73 statutory Inspectors General across the federal government. By systematically replacing public servants with IGs and positions functioning as commissars who decide investigative targets, including the US elections commission, the landscape for a coup became fertile.

Marching Along

CIGIE, created in 2008, was established by the Inspector General Reform Act by merging two earlier coordinating bodies: the President's Council on Integrity and Efficiency (PCIE) and the Executive Council on Integrity and Efficiency (ECIE). Those two predecessor councils themselves went back to 1992, created by executive order under President George H.W. Bush. Between the original 1978 IG Act and the 2008 creation of the unified CIGIE structure are three decades of Long March institutional groundwork.

CIGIE functions as a coordinating and standard-setting body for the IG community - running training, setting audit and investigation standards, and housing an Integrity Committee that investigates allegations against IGs themselves. Its voting members include not just the Inspectors General of individual agencies, but also representatives from the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, the Office of Government Ethics, and the Office of Special Counsel - a genuinely broad cross-section of oversight and intelligence-adjacent offices sitting on one council, which could be described as a "control layer."

The IG Act has continued to evolve since 1978: notably, the 2022 Securing Inspector General Independence Act added new protections against politically motivated IG removals, requiring the President to give Congress 30 days' notice and a substantive, case-specific rationale before removing an Inspector General.

CIGIE today represents a sui generis entity where one office effectively oversees software integrity across 3,143 counties. This structure echos Woodrow Wilson's administrative state-framed government as "too important to be left to the voters," relying on a political-technocratic elite and completes the Marxist Commissar model.

The GAP

In 1977 the Institute for Policy Studies formed the Government Accountability Program (GAP). On its surface it looked like a place for whistleblowers to find shelter, especially after the Pentagon Papers, and indeed many whistleblowers from the intelligence community and national defense program gravitated there. Critics suggest, however, that it was actually used as a honeypot to entice, contain, and control the whistleblowers, even as it collaborated and often even worked directly with the US Office of Special Counsel (OSC).

The Office of the Whistleblower Ombudsman was created in January 2019, as part of the House rules package adopted at the start of the 116th Congress (when Democrats took control of the House). It established, within the House of Representatives, a mandate to develop practices for House offices receiving confidential information from whistleblowers about government wrongdoing - including setting up reporting systems, maintaining confidentiality, and training staff.

It sat without a director for about a year. Then in February 2020, shortly after the conclusion of Trump's first impeachment trial (which had been sparked by a whistleblower complaint), Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she had appointed Shanna Devine as the inaugural director of the office. Devine had previously worked at GAP.

Critics questioned whether someone from an advocacy group could serve a "nonpartisan" role, citing concerns that the position could function as a filter protecting officials from exposure, and worrying whether this infrastructure meant this office could effectively legally spy on everyone - including Congress.

GAP also had a prominent role in advocating for the office's creation. Samantha Feinstein, GAP's senior legal and international analyst, testified before Congress to request the creation of the Ombudsman Office, which meant GAP was influencing policy from the outside as well.

The Modern Left's Electoral Rise

Decades after Port Huron, the left flank that it and IPS helped seed has grown into an electoral force. The Democratic Socialists of America was formed in 1982 through the merger of two left-wing organizations: the Democratic Socialist Organizing Committee, founded in 1973 by socialist Michael Harrington, and the New American Movement. For decades it remained small and aging - its median member age was 68 in 2013.

That changed after 2016. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign highlighted disaffection with mainstream Democratic politics and helped consolidate a younger left wing, and DSA's median member age dropped to 33 by 2017. One commentator described the shift as transforming the group from a "musty debate club for retired social democrats into an electoral powerhouse of young, ecumenical radicals."

Electoral wins followed quickly. In 2017, fifteen DSA members won local and state offices, including Lee Carter's election to the Virginia House of Delegates. The breakthrough came in 2018, when DSA member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated incumbent Congressman Joe Crowley in a primary upset in New York's 14th District, becoming a national figure. She and Rashida Tlaib became the first two DSA members elected to Congress that year.

The organization's footprint in elected office has continued to grow, with Ashik Siddique, a research analyst at one IPS program (National Priorities Project) who is also separately, and much more significantly, the current national co-chair of the DSA. That means that a sitting IPS staffer simultaneously holds DSA's top elected position.

Notable DSA-linked officials now include Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, elected in 2025. By 2025, more than 250 DSA members held elected office across 40 states, with 90% of them elected after 2019. As of mid-2026, DSA has grown to more than 120,000 members and now plays an influential role within the Democratic Party, and the group and its local chapters have endorsed 150 candidates this year, claiming 38 wins so far.

The group draws sharp fire from opponents. President Trump has characterized Mamdani and other DSA-backed candidates as "communist," exposing their links to adversaries like the CCP - though DSA describes itself as aiming for "democratic socialism."

Expert Colonel Tim Shindelar describes The New Left's methodical inching into the Modern Left as "The Final Mile." The Old Left (Marxism, 1908-1962; 54 years) was about class struggle and establishment of unions. The New Left (Social Justice, 1962-1982; 20 years), focused on issues like abortion, capital punishment, civil rights, environmentalism, feminism, gay rights and gender roles, and immigration. The Modern Left (Final Mile, 1982-present; 44 years) has evolved into policies like the Green New Deal, making higher education free, social ownership of the American economy (placing governors on true free market capitalism), national defense reduction, a Democratic Party shift into the progressive far left, along with pro-Palestinian and anti-Zionist causes.

The Media and The Last Mile

This shift to administrative power effectively renders elected officials powerless. Just because someone is elected to office doesn't mean they have any real power; the administrative state will allow elected officials (even executive ones) to ride in the back but they cannot drive the car.

Which means that voters are at the kids table, because it doesn't matter who the elected official is if the power lies with the Administrative State...thus embodying and defining Wilson's vision of keeping politics out of government because democracy is too important to be left to voters. The politics in which we all engage is merely a rubber match, and is unconnected to the outcome; the real match is occurring in a different stadium entirely.

Much of this neutralization and marginalization of the actual people (voters), while maintaining the illusion that it is neither by validating the scrimmage to its participants, traces to mid-20th-century globalist planning (1952-1956), building on Wassily Leontief's 1953 work aimed at phasing American labor to China while addressing excess human labor and galvanizing wealth concentration among a technocratic elite. Individual self-interest via game theory was expected to align populations toward what we now describe as the Singularity, but Marx's framework did not anticipate AI collapsing labor demand to zero - accelerating the need for focused population control programs. But there would be no buy-in unless a different diorama was presented.

The 1928 book Propaganda was written by the nephew of Sigmund Freud, Edward Bernays (1891-1995). Bernays was the son of Freud's sister and also related through his mother, who was Freud's sister. His father was also the brother of Freud's wife Martha.

Bernays is often called the "father of public relations" and Propaganda argued that manipulating public opinion is a necessary part of a functioning democracy. It drew heavily on his uncle's psychoanalytic theories to explain how to influence mass behavior through unconscious desires rather than rational argument.

George Orwell didn't invent the world of 1984 out of thin air - he drew it directly from Stalinist Russia, where erasing and reshaping history was institutionalized state policy. Not long after Stalin consolidated control, images of Leon Trotsky, the driving force behind the 1905 and 1917 revolutions, started vanishing from public life. In their place came grand, fictionalized depictions of Stalin standing shoulder to shoulder with Lenin as co-architects of the Bolshevik uprising, while Trotsky, despite having founded the Red Army himself, was written out entirely. These doctored scenes became fixtures of Soviet propaganda, plastered across office walls, towering billboards, museum halls, and postage stamps.

The effect on public memory was profound. Younger citizens absorbed the fabrication as historical fact, while older ones who had lived through the actual events found their genuine recollections gradually blurring with the state's preferred narrative - a strange kind of political false memory syndrome. People who reconciled what they actually remembered with that which the government insisted they believe developed what Orwell described as "doublethink." Those who refused - old revolutionaries who knew firsthand - were branded traitors, class enemies, or fascist sympathizers; they faced arrest, torture, forced public confessions, and execution.

With total command over media and law enforcement, it is possible to rewrite the collective memory of an entire population if you have one generation in which to accomplish it. With fully infiltrated and captured institutions it is possible to take control over an entire country without firing a shot if you have two. We are in the final mile, and the ghost in the machine has a government ID.

Sofia Karstens is an activist in California who worked closely with publisher Tony Lyons and Robert F. Kennedy Jr on several projects, including Kennedy's best-selling book: The Real Anthony Fauci. She collaborates with several organizations in the legal, legislative, medical science, and literary spaces and she is co-founder of Free Now Foundation, a non-profit preserving medical freedom and children's health.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 20:55

Peter Thiel Makes $76 Million Bet On Argentina's Top Shale Exporter Amid Milei Reforms

Vista Energy SAB's American depositary receipts are up 5% Monday on news that Peter Thiel's hedge fund disclosed a $76 million stake in Argentina's largest oil exporter.

Thiel Macro LLC reported owning almost 1.2 million shares of Vista at the end of the second quarter, valued at about $76 million. This was the fund's second-largest disclosed holding after Amazon.

Thiel, the co-founder of Palantir and PayPal, has deepened his ties to Argentina. He recently bought a home in Buenos Aires and met President Javier Milei in April, fueling speculation about increased investment in the country, which is undergoing a radical shift from failed socialism toward free-market capitalism.

Vista Energy is a Mexico-incorporated independent producer focused almost entirely on Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation. Latest data show that the formation's combined oil and natural gas output has surpassed 1 million barrels a day.

Bloomberg noted:

Under Milei, Argentina has removed controls on oil prices and exports, and regained access to global financial markets, jump-starting growth in its Vaca Muerta shale patch in Patagonia, where combined crude and natural gas production has already surpassed 1 million barrels a day. The boom is starting to transform Argentina's economy.

Since Milei was sworn in on December 10, 2023, taking the oath of office in Buenos Aires, Vista ADRs have risen 139%.

Bloomberg data show that Theil now ranks as the 15th-largest shareholder. 

Milei's economic reforms are aimed at attracting foreign investment, particularly in the country's natural resources, including oil, rare-earth minerals, and lithium.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 20:30

Iran War Pushes Middle Eastern Airlines Towards $4.3BN Loss In 2026

Via Middle East Eye

As the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on February 28 2026, Iran struck back near US military installations in the Gulf, including in Qatar and the UAE. Several international airports were hit by Iranian strikes, including Dubai, the world's busiest for international passengers, as well as Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Bahrain. 

The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait closed their airspaces due to safety concerns, gradually reopening them a week later as hostilities lessened. The war has had long-lasting consequences for regional aviation: falling passenger and cargo demand, fewer private jet flights, and global repercussions from high jet fuel prices. 

via AFP

The International Air Transport Association's (IATA) June outlook estimated that airlines operating from the Middle East will see a $7.2bn net profit in 2025 become a $4.3bn net loss in 2026.

Most major regional carriers have resumed operations, including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, but not at full capacity. Emirates CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times in June his planes were flying at three-quarters capacity. 

Conversely, most European and Asian airlines' flights in the region remain suspended. Air France expects to resume in late August and Lufthansa in September, while British Airways, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are all targeting late October. 

Air Canada is not planning to resume before mid-January 2027, and many others have not announced a restart date at all. Regional airspaces have reopened, but are still facing intermittent closures and disruptions. 

The EU Aviation Safety Agency’s most recent bulletin advises operators to "avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and part of the Gulf of Oman until 31 August 2026".

The result is limited choice for travelers. For a one-week round trip between the UAE and London in September, the only options are Emirates to Dubai, Etihad to Abu Dhabi, or Air Arabia to Sharjah, while to fly between Doha and Tokyo on those same dates, only Qatar Airways is available.

Business under threat

Gulf airlines organize their activity around a hub-and-spoke model concentrating traffic at a central base and operating flights worldwide from there. Passengers connect onward from the main hub, offering connections that are otherwise unavailable or sometimes cheaper fares than direct flights. 

This model has long relied on the Gulf’s strategic position between Europe and Asia, forming what analysts describe as a "bridge" between the two continents. But the war has put this model at risk.

Naveed Kapadia, an aviation lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, told Middle East Eye that while competition for airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates is “greatly reduced”, allowing them to “capture market share and maintain stronger fares”, they remain “connecting carriers whose economics depend on moving large volumes of passengers efficiently through Dubai and Doha”.

Kapadia said IATA’s June data showed Middle Eastern passenger demand fell 13.9 percent year-on-year, while direct traffic between Europe and Asia rose 11 percent, already revealing a strain on the Gulf carrier’s model.

This leads to cost increases across the board. “Where flights must use longer or less efficient routings, airlines face higher fuel burn, longer crew duty periods and reduced aircraft utilisation,” Kapadia said. The extra fuel many now carry in case of disruption also directly limits “passenger or cargo payload that can be carried”.

The hub-and-spoke model leaves airlines susceptible to disruption, as aircraft and crews can be stranded far away, causing cascading delays and cancellations across the entire schedule.

Emirates innovates  

Emirates has been innovating to win back the customers it had before the war, as many are hesitant to book flights connecting through Dubai in case hostilities resume.

One measure is an unprecedented travel insurance policy, offering comprehensive coverage even in case of conflict-related cancellation. Until now, most travel insurance voided cover in the event of war-related disruption, leaving passengers to absorb the costs themselves. 

The policy aims to prevent passengers from being stranded, with Emirates offering to fly them home on other airlines if needed. CEO Tim Clark told the Financial Times the aim was to guarantee “we would get you back irrespective [of whether it's] on Emirates or not”.

Iran war hands Syria windfall as airlines reroute over its airspace https://t.co/cVX6ipeefi pic.twitter.com/UjNM6FbOAW

— Mutlu Civiroglu (@mutludc) June 2, 2026

Dubai has also been trying to reboost tourism more broadly, offering complimentary packages for visitors invited by Emirati nationals and free hotel stays for long connecting flights.

Cargo demand lags 

Cargo carriers have also been impacted by regional disruptions. Kapadia said Middle East cargo demand grew roughly a third slower than the rest of the industry’s, at 5.6 percent year on year, behind the global rate of 8.5 percent.

Citing IATA figures, Kapadia said traffic between Europe and the Middle East remained 41.1 percent below the previous year, while Asia-Middle East traffic was down 4.1 percent.

He added that while “disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is creating demand for faster alternatives, particularly for urgent, high-value and time-sensitive shipments”, this was not a "straightforward windfall" for Gulf-based cargo airlines.

Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways Cargo and Emirates SkyCargo account for around 13 percent of global air cargo traffic.  “The more important question,” he said, “is whether they can convert short-term urgency into sustained and profitable cargo flows.”

Private jets staying  

Similar disruptions have also been observed in the private jet sector. Nick Koscinski, an aviation analyst at WINGX, told Middle East Eye that as of 10 August, overall private jet traffic originating in Gulf countries was down 46.5 percent since the war began. 

“The vast majority of flights stayed within the Middle East region,” he said, though volumes there are “still down considerably”. Europe remains the second most common destination from Gulf origins, but Gulf-to-Europe flights are down 41.0 percent.

Koscinski said Qatar Executive, one of the top Gulf-based private jet operators, had been more resilient than UAE or Saudi Arabia-based competitors.  Total flights are down 6.7 percent since the war began, against 28.7 percent for a comparable UAE-based operator and 39.0 percent for a Saudi one. 

Koscinski said operators “likely have some ability to pass increased operating costs, like fuel spikes, through to the consumer via surcharges”, but lags in repricing and “softer demand overall” mean they will still take a financial hit.

Fuel costs squeeze margins

Jet fuel prices fell 20 percent in June as Gulf oil flows temporarily improved, Kapadia said, but remained “45.8% higher than a year earlier”. IATA forecasts the 2026 jet fuel price average will run 70 percent above 2025 levels.

Kapadia expects “Gulf airfares to remain elevated and volatile rather than rise uniformly” because “airlines will try to recover higher fuel and disruption costs through fares to some extent, but they cannot pass on every additional cost without weakening demand, particularly among price-sensitive leisure travellers.”

Low-cost carriers around the world have been particularly vulnerable to the jump in fuel cost: US-based Spirit Airlines ceased operations on 2 May 2026, while Air Baltic and Wizz Air face growing bankruptcy risk and are forced to restructure operations. 

A McKinsey report found that around 70 percent of jet fuel surcharges are passed directly to consumers, with airline margins recovering only briefly when fuel prices fall. It said the economic pressure will force airlines to retire older aircraft, cut less-booked routes, and further trim overhead costs.

Not every carrier is equally impacted. Israel’s national airline, El Al, has recently reported record profits, more than double the previous year.

Many passengers have criticized the “outrageous” fares, as the continued flight suspension by international carriers leaves the airline in a near-monopoly.

Harsha Jaison, an aviation consultant at ICF, told Middle East Eye the conflict has set a precedent that will probably outlast it. “Airport investment deals, geopolitical risk is increasingly being reflected in downside scenarios, valuation assumptions and risk premiums,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 20:05

Record Ground Beef Prices May Finally Be Breaking Consumer Demand

Last week's retail sales report provided fresh evidence that the K-shaped economy is buckling, with national average gasoline prices still printing above $4 a gallon and discretionary spending weakening. Consumer stress is now surfacing in the grocery aisle: as beef prices hover near record highs, Americans are beginning to trade down to cheaper proteins.

Bloomberg cites new data from Chicago-based market research company Circana, showing that beef sales volumes declined .3% during the 13 weeks through mid-July. Volumes had risen about 5% during the same period in each of the previous two years. The decline is notable because it occurred during the peak grilling season around Memorial Day and July Fourth.

Source: Bloomberg

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the national average price of ground beef in the supermarket is hovering just below $7 per pound, a record high, as a prolonged cattle shortage shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

The Trump administration has focused on easing elevated beef prices through increased imports, but any meaningful relief will take years. The US cattle herd remains near its lowest level in more than five decades, while imported animals must be raised for months before entering the food supply.

Bank of America analysts recently cited Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who warned that the US cattle cycle is unlikely to improve anytime soon and that beef prices are poised to remain elevated through at least next year.

Read:

• When Will The Cattle Cycle Turn? BofA Has Answers For Beef Lovers

We noted in late July that one of the most overlooked affordable proteins is pork, which averaged $4.81 per pound in mid-June, compared with $7.95 per pound for ground beef, while pork chops cost roughly one-third as much as beef steak, according to Bloomberg, citing NielsenIQ data.

"Consumers are stretched," Chris DuBois, an executive vice president at data-analytics firm Circana, told Bloomberg. "It's not always just about the price of food, there's the price of life that hits, so that puts some of the pressure on total volume in the store."

Last week (view report), retail sales in July were a big disappointment, with discretionary categories seeing spending pullbacks. Notably, lower-income spending held up well, while higher-income spending cooled modestly.

July retail sales weakness was driven by a plunge in non-discretionary spending by higher income households https://t.co/TbbJ6WB81K pic.twitter.com/dDUdAOGawX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2026

With that said, demand destruction levels for beef may finally be hitting, which is a promising sign of early rebalancing. However, consumers will not be thrilled, as they will have to trade down to cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 19:40

Charges Against Palisades Fire Arson Suspect Revised

City News Service via The Epoch Times,

LOS ANGELES - The man accused of setting a blaze that grew into the deadly Palisades Fire, the most destructive fire in Los Angeles history, is facing one less criminal charge, with federal prosecutors obtaining a revised indictment in the case.

Jonathan Rinderknecht, 29, is posed after his arrest on charges that he intentionally ignited the Pacific Palisades fire in Los Angeles, before his first court appearance in Orlando, Fla., on Oct. 8, 2025. Department of Justice/Handout via Reuters

In June, a federal court jury deadlocked 10-2 in favor of acquitting Jonathan Rinderknecht on three arson-related charges stemming from the 2025 firestorm, which prosecutors say began on New Year's Day as the Lachman Fire, which smoldered for a week before Santa Ana winds re-ignited it into the Palisades Fire. In light of the deadlock, a judge declared a mistrial, but prosecutors vowed to retry the case.

The Palisades Fire killed 12 people, burned 23,448 acres, cost billions in damage and insurance claims, and ruined much of the exclusive Pacific Palisades community, destroying about 6,800 structures.

Rinderknecht was originally charged with three federal arson counts: destruction of property by means of fire, arson affecting property used in interstate commerce, and timber set afire. On Aug. 13, however, prosecutors filed a superseding indictment with only two charges - destruction of property by means of fire and arson affecting property used in interstate commerce.

In the new indictment, the first charge refers only to Rinderknecht's alleged setting of the Lachman Fire, rather than the Lachman and Palisades fires.

Rinderknecht is due in court for a status conference this week, with a re-trial tentatively set for October.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli insisted after the mistrial was declared in June that prosecutors would eventually win a conviction.

"The evidence is strong that Jonathan Rinderknecht is responsible for igniting the fire on January 1, 2025, which eventually became the Palisades Fire," Essayli wrote on X. "We fully intend to retry this case before a new jury and obtain guilty verdicts on all charged counts."

Defense attorney Steven Haney told reporters outside court, however, that his client is innocent, and a retrial won't give prosecutors a better result. He said prosecutors "failed miserably" in their efforts to prove their case.

"If they want to re-try it again, we can re-try it again," Haney said. "If Bill Essayli wants to cheerlead from the sidelines, maybe he should come in and try the case himself next time."

He said a re-trial would likely end up with Rinderknecht being acquitted.

"Ten-to-two is an overwhelming message from the jury that the government failed and did not have enough evidence to prove their case," Haney said.

Rinderknecht remains in federal custody pending the new trial.

During the 10-day trial earlier this year, the jury heard evidence that the deadly Palisades Fire was a "holdover" fire - a continuation of the Lachman Fire that began early in the morning on New Year's Day 2025. Although firefighters quickly suppressed the Lachman Fire - named for a street near the Skull Rock Trailhead - the fire continued to smolder and burn underground within the root structure of dense vegetation.

On Jan. 7, 2025, heavy winds caused the underground fire to re-surface and spread above ground in what became known as the Palisades Fire, which caused widespread damage in Pacific Palisades and Malibu.

Prosecutors used witness statements, video surveillance, cell phone data, and analysis of fire dynamics and patterns at the scene to try to show Rinderknecht intentionally set the Lachman Fire and then lied about it to investigators. The evidence was largely circumstantial.

Haney argued that no hard evidence tied his client to arson, and the Lachman and Palisades fires were two separate events. The first fire was likely caused by errant New Year's Eve fireworks, he told jurors, and the second blaze could've been arson.

According to Haney, Rinderknecht was on the trail near the Hidden Buddha clearing where the Lachman Fire was thought to have started, but the part-time Uber driver did nothing more than call 911 to report it.

Haney insisted the Lachman Fire "could've started before Jonathan even arrived [on the scene]. Nobody knows for sure when it started. Everyone is guessing. A man's on trial and nobody knows when the fire started."

Prosecutors told jurors Rinderknecht, driven by anger, loneliness and a thirst for revenge against the wealthy, used a grill lighter to ignite hilltop vegetation around midnight on Dec. 31, 2024 at a remote, deserted area adjacent to the Pacific Palisades' Summit neighborhood. That fire ultimately exploded into the deadly conflagration that wiped out much of the upscale community six days later.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 19:15

Parents Are Paying Thousands For Sorority Rush Coaches

SAAS is starting to mean sororities as a service.

Parents are spending thousands of dollars on consultants to help their daughters navigate sorority recruitment at major Southern universities, turning rush into a process with its own coaches, preparation packages and, in some cases, five-figure services, according to Bloomberg.

The consultants advise prospective new members, or PNMs, on what to wear, how to introduce themselves, which photographs to remove from social media and how to handle conversations during recruitment. Some help prepare résumés and introductory videos, secure recommendation letters and remain on call throughout rush week.

The business is expanding as Southern universities attract more students from the Northeast, Midwest and West, including families with little familiarity with the region’s Greek-life traditions. “Until very recently, people didn’t even know this industry existed outside of the South,” says Trisha Addicks, founder of Atlanta-based consulting firm It’s All Greek to Me. Her one-year program costs $6,500, and this fall she is introducing a two-year Legacy Mentorship package for $12,000.

Bloomberg noted multiple examples in its report. Lorie Stefanelli, founder of New York-based Greek Chic, says she has gone from about five clients a season to nearly 80. In 2024, she left her job as a human-resources manager to run the consultancy full time. On the eve of this year’s University of Alabama rush, six of the eight families she was working with were from New York, New Jersey or Connecticut. Many of her Auburn University clients come from the tristate area and Illinois.

The geographic shift reflects broader enrollment changes. Since 2004, Louisiana State University and the universities of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee have more than tripled their percentage of incoming first-year students from outside the South, according to National Center for Education Statistics data. Large football programs, scholarship offers, school spirit and active Greek systems have helped draw students from elsewhere in the country.

For families unfamiliar with Southern sororities, consultants sell knowledge of a recruitment process that can begin months before students arrive on campus. PNMs may record introductory videos, assemble résumés and professional headshots, seek letters from sorority alumnae and describe their philanthropic interests. Consultants review social-media profiles, recommend outfits and coach students on making conversation, maintaining eye contact and avoiding subjects such as politics, religion and partying.

Social media has added another layer to the preparation. A 2022 University of South Carolina analysis found that the average #RushTok video received about 66,000 views. Consultants say the attention has increased the focus on expensive outfits, highly sought-after houses and the possibility of social-media exposure or brand partnerships.

The coaching comes on top of tuition and the cost of Greek membership itself. Lindsay Lookingbill, a Maryland teacher whose daughter Reagan was heading to the University of Mississippi, initially dismissed a friend's suggestion that she hire a rush consultant. The family was already paying about $21,000 in out-of-state tuition, while sorority dues could add at least $3,000 per semester. They eventually hired Mindy Farr, founder of Alabama-based SororitySolutions, and Reagan later received a bid from Alpha Delta Pi.

Other families are making similar calculations. Alabama sophomore Brooke Goodrich, from Massachusetts, paid Stefanelli $3,000 for four individual preparation sessions and on-call help during rush week. She later joined Alpha Chi Omega. “I knew nothing about Southern sorority rush before I hired Lorie,” Goodrich says. “By the time I got to campus, I felt confident.”

There is a large potential customer base. More than half of undergraduates at Mississippi and Auburn are affiliated with fraternities or sororities, while roughly 40% of undergraduates at Tennessee and Alabama participate in Greek life. Clemson University reported 1,869 new sorority members in 2025, more than twice the 905 recorded in 2017.

“Most of my clients are looking for sports culture, school spirit and a place where the community really rallies around the university and their students,” Stefanelli says. “And if you’re going to go to a school like that, you may as well go all the way and join Greek life.”

Demand is also attracting new consultants. Auburn senior Marisa Mathson, who grew up in Iowa, started Refined Presence this year and sold out of $315 and $550 packages offering wardrobe consultations, social-media audits and interview coaching. She says she was in contact with about 70 students before rush, many from California, Chicago and the Northeast.

What was once largely advice passed among relatives, alumnae and friends is increasingly being sold as a professional service. For families without connections to Southern Greek life, rush consultants are offering a way to learn its expectations before their daughters arrive on campus—and some parents are willing to pay thousands of dollars for it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 18:50

The Never-Ending Cycle Of Taking Offense...

Authored by J.B.Shurk via AmericanThinker.com,

Americans should not fear the past...

I remember the first time I came across a “trigger warning.”  I was on a university campus in the ‘90s, attending the first lecture of a new history professor.  As I perused her course syllabus, I was impressed with the reading list and organization.  Then I spotted an incongruous “warning” to women and African Americans suggesting that they might find some of the material offensive.  At first, I thought it was an inappropriate joke.  I asked someone about it, and I was informed that “trigger warnings” had become increasingly common in the classrooms of America’s elite boarding schools.  I rolled my eyes because I knew right then and there that it would take decades to remedy the problem.

The idea that a history professor would implicitly warn students to be afraid of the past unnerved me.  I had always believed very much the opposite — that it was important for young minds to face the past with open eyes.  As living members of the human race, we enjoy the great privilege of being able to learn as much from those who came before us as possible.  And a person can never learn too much about the past!  Whether you take the lessons of history with you to the battlefield, boardroom, small office, or kitchen table, understanding the people, events, and ideas that created today’s world is an invaluable tool for navigating the present and building the future.

I don’t want people to be afraid of the past.  I want them to be invigorated by it.  I want them to exercise their imaginations and step into the centuries that came before us.  I want them to understand the points of view of our ancestors and to appreciate everything that we have inherited from them.  Our role as the current custodians of this material world is not to judge previous generations by today’s mores and standards.  Our job is to prevent the great lessons of history from ever slipping through our grasp.  Sometimes, grappling with the past takes courage!

But the “trigger warning” was just the tip of a much bigger and more socially destructive iceberg.  The message on that syllabus was antithetical to personal growth.  It communicated three poisonous ideas: (1) History is terrifying.  (2) It’s okay to look away.  (3) It’s permissible to rewrite history if it makes us “feel” better.  None of these messages is true.  History is treasure.  Understanding the past is the only way of glimpsing the future.  And if a person understands that seeing into the future is priceless, then that person should similarly understand that learning from the past is priceless, too.  

Furthermore, I do not believe that we should be teaching children to be afraid.  Do we want them to learn that a hot stove burns skin?  Of course.  Should we then encourage them never to sit near a fire?  Absolutely not.  Courage is a virtue.  It comes only when we appreciate the dangers before us and move carefully around them anyway.  History is not there to scare us.  It can’t hurt us.  What it can do is inform us.  It can equip us with the wisdom and strength to ably meet the real challenges of this life.

Whether printed on classroom syllabi or repeated as some modern mantra of “political correctness,” “trigger warnings” exude cowardice.  Why must leftist politicians recite “land acknowledgments” before government meetings or solemnly intone, “Black lives matter,” during public speeches?  Why must they patronize the descendants of native tribes who were here before the Pilgrims?  Why do they insist on treating black Americans as if they were children? 

But that’s the point, isn’t it?  At their heart, “trigger warnings” are infantilizing.  Although outwardly respectful, they are outrageously condescending.  They say, “You do not possess the intelligence to process the past or the moral strength to persevere after learning what your ancestors might have experienced.”  Those who provide “trigger warnings” essentially appoint themselves as higher authorities who are ostensibly capable of doing the tough job of deciding what parts of history should be known and which should be buried.

And there’s the rub!  Because as soon as some privileged group of elites decide to become the official “guardians” of history, their efforts to hide the past from the people are never finished.  Bowdlerizing history becomes its own end.  There is always some new collection of people who might be offended about old news from the past.  There is always some old idea from the past that might be newly adjudged as offensive. 

This never-ending cycle of taking offense is a hallmark of “political correctness” and cultural Marxism, more generally. 

Leftism’s engine runs on the fuel of social conflict.  The working class must be taught to hate business owners.  Blacks must be encouraged to hate whites.  Women must replace men.  Gays must revolt against the nuclear family.  “Transgenders” must rebel against biological sex.  Islamic supremacists must wage war against Christians.  There must always be “oppressed” groups to support; there must always be “oppressors” to resist.  The “revolution” must continue at all times.  It can never be permitted to end.

This is how we have gotten to this absurd point in history when self-described “intellectuals” redefine their beliefs every few years.  They wanted a color-blind society and an end to segregation; then they wanted race-based affirmative action programs, “diversity” quotas, black-only graduation ceremonies, and awards based on skin color, not merit.  They wanted equal rights for women; then they wanted special rights for women; then they wanted to shove men in women’s locker rooms.  They believed in genetics and biological sex; now they believe in “gender” and that physical differences between men and women are imaginary “social constructs.”  Had I asked a group of university professors twenty-five years ago whether they believed men and women are biologically distinct, every single person would have raised a hand; now those same professors would insist that men can have babies.  Moral and intellectual relativism produces cowards.

The antidote to ever-shifting Marxism is to stop dividing people into groups and to begin treating everyone with respect and dignity.  Doing so requires that we acknowledge that there are good ways and bad ways to live.  There are virtuous ways to behave, and there are sinful ways to behave.  Virtue and vice do not change from one decade to the next.  Courage, prudence, justice, fortitude, temperance, faith, hope, and charity cannot be expunged with “trigger warnings” or “political correctness.”  No matter how often we fail to live honorable lives, the struggle to be moral, honest, and virtuous provides its own eternal rewards.  

These truths echo something President Calvin Coolidge said in a 1926 speech celebrating the one-hundred-fiftieth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence: “If all men are created equal, that is final.  If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final.  If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final.  No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions.”  

In other words, America’s Founding principles require no “trigger warnings.”  They are just as true today as they were two-hundred-fifty years ago.  As Coolidge said so eloquently, “If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people.  Those who wish to proceed in that direction can not lay claim to progress.  They are reactionary.  Their ideas are not more modern, but more ancient, than those of the Revolutionary fathers.”

Young minds should not be afraid of history.  They should approach the past with courage and be grateful for their inheritance.  Living virtuously requires the strength to face difficult truths.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 18:25

Colombia Begins Mass Mobilization Against Terror Group As Moscow Warns Of New "Anti-Russia Provocation In Latin America"

Trump-backed Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella has wasted no time combating Marxist terrorist groups in a country that is part of the US-led "Shield of the Americas," an initiative aimed at eliminating transnational drug cartels and preventing weaponized migration flows toward the US. 

De la Espriella recently announced joint US military operations targeting the far-left terror networks, as footage posted on Instagram by local media outlet Primicia Caribe shows what appears to be a mobilization of Colombian troops.

🔴| 🇨🇴 ATENCIÓN COLOMBIA. El Escudo de las Américas, rumbo al #Catatumbo, con el objetivo claro de combatir a las guerrillas y recuperar el territorio. pic.twitter.com/E9JCiyvsf0

— Liliana Franco (@lilianaf523) August 17, 2026

In recent days, Colombia's far-left ELN guerrilla group threatened de la Espriella's new government over military operations targeting rebel-held territory. 

#Colombia La comandante del Ejército de Liberación Nacional ELN, Silvana Guerrero, lanzó amenazas al gobierno de De la Espreilla, sobre incursiones dle ejército en zonas controladas por el grupo. Armada con una carabina de patrón M4 y sus guardias están armados con fusil Type… pic.twitter.com/mCcWTpp3pF

— Klaveec (@klaveec) August 16, 2026

Silvana Guerrero, identified as the leader and commander of the self-proclaimed Northeastern War Front of the ELN, warned that the group would resist efforts to restore state control, as armed fighters displayed military-style assault rifles. It appears that de la Espriella's government is preparing for a fight against the ELN, with a retaking of territory near the Ecuadorian border. 

On Sunday, de la Espriella wrote on X about an attack against troops and warned that the "narcoterrorists of the ELN" would pay dearly. He said, "The order to the public forces is clear: without truce and with resolve, we must put an end to that cancer."

Este ataque contra nuestros héroes le saldrá caro a los narcoterroristas del ELN .

La orden a la fuerza pública es clara: sin tregua y con contundencia, hay que acabar con ese cancer.

Mi solidaridad con las víctimas y sus familias.

¡Firme por la Patria!

(A.D.L.E) 🇨🇴 🐅 https://t.co/nN7X2rLzg4

— Abelardo De La Espriella (@ABDELAESPRIELLA) August 16, 2026

Under former socialist Colombian President Gustavo Petro's "Total Peace" policy, ELN was allowed to consolidate power, expand its territorial control, and use negotiated ceasefires to recruit fighters and further its drug trafficking operations.

By Monday morning, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation chimed in on X. It claimed a Western intelligence service, working through Ukrainian proxies, is preparing an information operation targeting Russia in Latin America:

A Western intelligence service, working with Ukrainian proxies, is preparing a new anti-Russian provocation in Latin America. ❗️ The plan: accuse Russia of supplying weapons to criminal groups in Venezuela, Colombia & Mexico.

⚡️ Russia’s #SVR:

A Western intelligence service, working with Ukrainian proxies, is preparing a new anti-Russian provocation in Latin America.

❗️ The plan: accuse Russia of supplying weapons to criminal groups in Venezuela, Colombia & Mexico.https://t.co/wHk2BnHhgE pic.twitter.com/ch9Oeoh3Qk

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) August 17, 2026

Russian state media Sputnik cited Russian intelligence that said, "The West is plotting a provocation to frame Russia for arming Latin American cartels." 

More from Sputnik:

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has warned that the West is preparing a provocation to accuse Russia of "illegal arms supplies" to drug cartels and criminal groups in Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico. 

• To do that, Russian-made weapons captured during the special military operation are being smuggled into Latin American countries 
• Fake audio and video recordings are being prepared to "confirm" the alleged transfers 
• The goal is to undermine Russia's constructive ties with the region and pressure Latin American governments into adopting an anti-Russian stance

🚨 West plotting provocation to frame Russia for arming Latin American cartels - Russian Intel

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has warned that the West is preparing a provocation to accuse Russia of "illegal arms supplies" to drug cartels and criminal groups in… pic.twitter.com/smSBTHbXFt

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) August 17, 2026

To sum up, the developments suggest Colombia's renewed campaign against the ELN could become entangled in the wider Russia-versus-the-West conflict. Bogotá's alignment with the Trump administration and its push to reclaim guerrilla-held territory create what may be only a new information war of competing narratives about who is supplying the ELN.  

Russia's claims remain unverified. Meanwhile, all eyes are on Colombia as the government prepares to confront cartels and insurgencies. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 18:00