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Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Industrial Data; WalMart And Home Depot Earnings

While global equity indices are at or close to all-time highs, DB's Peter Sidorov writes that we’re seeing more challenging August crosswinds playing out in bond markets. Expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike have been pulled back, but this has been accompanied by a significant US curve steepening, with the backdrop of higher oil prices, elevated fiscal deficits, and demand for capital from the AI investment boom putting upward pressure on yields. The resulting long-end sell-off has also been a global affair, with 10yr OAT yields ending last week at their highest level since 2009 and the 30yr bund yields reaching a post-2011 high of 3.73% (see the full weekly recap at the end).

Bond markets could face further tests this week, with events including the flash August PMIs (Friday), minutes of the July FOMC meeting (Wednesday), as well as China’s monthly activity data a little later this morning. Meanwhile, this week’s 20yr Treasury auction (Wednesday) may become the most expensive Treasury bond issuance in the past 25 years – the current post-2001 high is a 5.245% yield at a 20yr auction in October 2023 and 20yr yields were 5.26% as of Friday.

That Fed pricing will be in focus with the minutes of the July FOMC meeting due on Wednesday. Given Chair Warsh has stepped back from offering policy guidance, the minutes may shed extra light on how the Fed is weighing inflation risks as well as their urgency to act should those risks remain elevated (narrator: "they won't"). Chair Warsh described the July discussion as a “good family fight” following the meeting, which saw three dissents in favor of a 25bps hike. While the minutes will be slightly stale after last week’s relatively tame CPI and PPI data, the +0.18% MoM reading our economists now foresee for July core PCE inflation still translates to a +3.2% YoY pace. So while the inter-meeting inflation data has likely reduced the urgency for imminent action by the Fed, they are far from providing sufficient confidence that inflation is trending back to the Fed’s objective.

Investors will also be watching the details of the FOMC discussion in the context of the sharp curve steepening we’ve seen since the July Fed meeting. The 2s10s slope has steepened by +20bps since July 28, its sharpest 13-session rise since the post-Liberation Day Treasury sell off last April.

Turning to this week’s data in more detail, the highlight will come with the flash August PMIs on Friday, including those for the US, Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and Japan. The resilience in economic activity data, including the PMIs, in the face of the Iran energy shock has been an important factor in supporting continued pricing of rate hikes across the major economies. Indeed, in July the composite PMI reached its highest levels since the start of the year in both the US and the Euro area.

In other events, we’ll have the latest Riksbank decision on Thursday, which is expected to keep rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting. Elsewhere in Europe, we’ll have the ZEW survey in Germany on Tuesday and the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey due Friday. For the latter, our own dbDataInsights survey suggests an uptick in short-term expectations but more stable medium-term ones. Otherwise, the UK will dominate the European data calendar, with the July inflation print on Wednesday, labor market data on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday. For the CPI print, our UK economists expect headline at 2.92% YoY and core CPI at 2.54%.

Before all that, the focus will be on China July activity data, including retail sales and industrial production, which will be out an hour or so after this hits your inboxes. The release comes as China’s domestic demand growth has been lackluster in recent months, putting the reflation that has emerged since late 2025 at risk. Underwhelming domestic growth has also contributed to the underperformance in China’s equity market, with the main indices essentially flat YTD, in contrast to a +13.7% rise for the S&P 500, +11.1% for the Stoxx 600 and +36.5% for the Nikkei.

Back to the US, where the earnings season begins to wind down...

... the spotlight will be on the US retailers Home Depot (Tuesday), Target, TJX (Wednesday) and Walmart (Thursday) to gauge the health of the US consumer. Other names to watch include Analog Devices and Deere in the US and Alibaba and Baidu in China.

Turning just to the US, the key economic data releases this week are the import prices report—because of its potential implications for core PCE—on Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are currently no scheduled speaking engagements with Fed officials this week. The minutes to the FOMC’s July meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, August 17 

• 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing, August (consensus 10.5, last 15.6)

Tuesday, August 18 

• 08:30 AM Import prices, July (consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%): The import prices report contains the remaining source data relevant to estimating July core PCE: the import price index for air passenger fares. Based on the details of last week’s CPI and PPI reports, we currently estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.20% in July, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.24%.
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, July (GS -8.0%, consensus -5.9%, last +19.0%): Housing permits, July (consensus +0.1%, last -2.6%); We forecast that housing starts declined by 8.0%, reflecting payback from last month’s outsized increase in multi-family housing starts.
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, July (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%): Manufacturing production, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Capacity utilization, July (GS 76.2%, consensus 76.3%, last 76.1%); We estimate industrial production increased by 0.5% in July, largely reflecting strong auto and electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 76.2%.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, July (GS flat, consensus +0.5%, last -5.4%)

Wednesday, August 19 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, July 28-29 meeting : The run-up to the July FOMC meeting was unusually dramatic, with markets pricing a roughly 35% chance of a hike ahead of the meeting. But the meeting ended with no change to the funds rate, no substantiative changes to the post-meeting statement, and no policy guidance or explanation of the FOMC’s interpretation of the inflation situation. Presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented in favor of a 25bp rate hike. We had expected that most FOMC voters would not want to hike at the July meeting because the June inflation data showed substantial improvement relative to prior months. Many voters have said that they want to see sustained improvement in the inflation data and are open to raising rates eventually if necessary. While Warsh downplayed the role of the June CPI report during his press conference, we suspect that was the thought process for most of the other eight voters who preferred to leave the funds rate unchanged. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants’ economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time. Since the meeting, the labor market and inflation data have looked softer.

Thursday, August 20 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 15 (GS 210k, consensus 212k, last 209k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 8 (consensus 1,788k, last 1,777k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, August (GS 30.0, consensus 25.0, last 41.4)

Friday, August 21 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August preliminary (consensus 53.9, last 53.9) 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, August preliminary (consensus 53.9, last 54.6) 

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 10:25

AI Pledge Allegiance To The Flag

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

As Bloomberg recounts that “the ceasefire is set to expire today,” there is little left of that truce to begin with. Negotiations have broken down. And over the weekend, Israel conducted new strikes in Lebanon, a bulk carrier that tried to leave the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a projectile, and Yemen’s port suspended operations after Houthi missile attacks.

Both sides are evaluating their options in the current stalemate. Iran’s hardline leadership is reportedly planning to widen the war, as they seek to raise the costs for the US and regional leaders. It may be their counterstrategy to the “unprecedented” economic sanctions that the US is threatening to impose on Iran.

Those sanctions could already be costly for the US. Bloomberg explored what this “economic isolation” of the country could look like, given that Iran is already the subject of a plethora of sanctions and a naval blockade. And most of them have some repercussions for the US too. The US’ strongest move might be to sanction Chinese banks that finance the trade in Iranian oil, but this will surely worsen US-China relations ahead of a scheduled Trump-Xi meeting.

And just by the conflict dragging on, the cost for the US increases. The Financial Times reports that US voters disapprove of most of Trump’s economic issues. The US president scores particularly bad on the cost of living, as most voters feel worse off due to higher inflation.

Washington has been trying to manage these costs through its strategic petroleum reserve, but that hasn’t stopped prices from going up. And, crucially, these reserves are finite. The SPR has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since it was filled in the 1980s. This adds to concerns about the integrity of the caverns – as experts are divided over the amount of oil that needs to remain to prevent structural damage to the storage sites.

Perhaps feeling that pressure, President Trump maintains that the war will be over soon, and that Iran will be “badly defeated.” Traders are not convinced: markets are dragging their feet at the open. This weekend, Trump added that he would declare the Strait of Hormuz United States territory “pretty soon.” Because “essentially, that’s what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to.” The Guardian concludes that the “seriousness of [the] remark made in New York on Friday, and whether it signaled a new policy position, [is] not clear.”

That may be the case with many of his off-the-cuff comments, but their consequences can be severe. President Trump has previously threatened to withdraw military support for countries that do not invest in their own defense, or that do not align with the US on geopolitical or geoeconomic matters like trade.

As a case in point, President Trump expressed his discontent with South Korea’s lack of help in the Iran war. And on that basis, Trump ordered the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” the joint military drills with South Korea. He even indicated that he would have cancelled the exercise entirely if it hadn’t been too late for that – despite repeated warnings from US military intelligence that North Korea is gaining valuable experience by aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Washington is preparing a similar carrot-and-stick approach in the field of artificial intelligence. The US wants to force countries to pick a side in the AI-race with China. Any country that signs a deal with Beijing could be cut off from the US’ AI coalition. The draft policy is an extension of the Pax Silica agreement, which was designed to improve the US’ access to critical resources and to strengthen supply lines for semiconductors.

Various countries have already joined the US agreement, which is not binding. China has since launched a rival alliance, causing Kazakhstan to effectively be a signatory to both frameworks. That’s a concern for the US, primarily because the country has a cache of critical minerals. But Washington also wants to prevent that its rivals get access to its frontier AI models and research.

So, the Trump administration may soon send out letters telling its allies to pledge allegiance to the flag – or be cut off from US technologies. It’s a reminder that gross domestic compute is becoming an increasingly important element of strategic autonomy and the power a country can project on the global stage.

The EU, positioned right on the US-China fault line, is still trying to navigate the increasing rupture between the two blocs. Last year, Brussels reluctantly signed a trade deal with the US, to prevent worse. Part of that deal includes a pledge to increase investments in American production facilities. However, whether that materialises is up to private companies, The German economic institute IW calculated that companies cut their US-bound FDI by two thirds in the first half of 2026, to the lowest level since 2023. This reluctance to invest may be entirely due to the uncertainty about US-EU trade relations and the overall economic outlook. Yet, it may put Europe in Trump’s crosshairs again.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 09:50

China Economic Growth 'Downside Risk' Looms; Goldman Warns After July Macro-Miss-Fest

China’s July activity data weakened from June, missing market expectations across the board, and signaling a soft start to Q3 amid continued divergence between resilient exports and subdued domestic demand.

Originally slated for publication late last night (US time), the data release was delayed for five hours after the statistics agency revised its schedule in a break with recent practice.

Industrial production (IP) growth slowed to 4.5% yoy in July from 5.3% yoy in June, reflecting slower export growth and weaker output growth in ferrous metals smelting, power generation (fell 0.1% y/y to 943.9b kwh), and pharmaceuticals industries.

In sequential terms, IP contracted 0.3% mom non-annualized in July (vs. +1.0% mom non-annualized in June), broadly consistent with last year’s pattern of softer quarter-start momentum.

One stand out from Chinese steel production tumbled last month, putting the industry on track for the lowest annual total this decade as mills adjust to much weaker demand.

The seasonal lull in consumption has been compounded by worsening conditions in the wider economy.

The contraction in construction activity has deepened, according to the latest purchasing manager index, while fixed-asset investment has fallen dramatically, the data from the statistics bureau showed.

Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to -12.8% yoy in July from -9.3% yoy in June on a single-month basis despite a low base, as unfavorable weather and slow government spending continued to weigh on investment activity.

Property activity remained sluggish in July despite recent green shoots in some large cities. Property sales fell 13.5% yoy in volume (floor space) terms and 8.8% yoy in value terms in July (vs. -14.2%/-13.9% in June). Growth in new home starts and floor space under construction weakened to -27.8% yoy and -12.7% yoy, respectively, in July from -26.0% and -12.5% in June. New home completions remained soft at -18.7% yoy in July, though less negative than -25.0% yoy in June. NBS and private-sector data suggest nationwide home prices remain under downward pressure, even as some large cities show early signs of stabilization.

Retail sales growth eased to +0.6% yoy from +1.0% yoy in June despite favorable base effects, mainly dragged down by goods sales.

Labor market indicators were broadly stable and in line with seasonal patterns in July. The nationwide and 31-city unemployment rates, both not seasonally adjusted, edged up to 5.2% in July from 5.0% in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate both rates were unchanged from June at 5.1%.

Finally, the Services Industry Output Index - which is reported in real terms and closely tracks tertiary GDP growth - also slowed to 4.3% yoy in July from 4.7% yoy in June.

Societé Generale SA economists including Wei Yao said the country’s growth momentum is “collapsing” outside tech.

“China’s economic data continue to disappoint, with an increasingly K-shaped pattern: strong tech, weakness almost everywhere else,” they said in a report.

In a stunningly honest statement, the NBS said that while the economy has remained “stable” so far this year, the external environment is “complicated and volatile” and domestic demand has stayed weak.

“Some companies are facing operational difficulties, and the foundation for the economy to stabilize and improve still needs to be consolidated,” it said in a statement accompanying the data release.

Finally, July activity data combined with Goldman's high-frequency tracker for the first half of August suggest a soft start to Q3 - unfavorable weather conditions (e.g., recent Typhoon Dolphin) and the ongoing global energy shock continue to weigh on activity, while government spending has yet to pick up meaningfully despite stronger easing signals from the July Politburo meeting.

“Economic momentum slowed further in the early third quarter ahead of the late-July Politburo meeting, with all major July indicators falling short of even our low expectations," said Bloomberg's Chang Shu and David Qu.

"On the demand side, private consumption softened modestly, while the contraction in investment deepened sharply. This suggests fiscal spending has yet to pick up from its sluggish pace in the first half.” 

Against this backdrop, Goldman sees downside risk to their Q3 real GDP growth forecast of 4.6% yoy (vs. 4.3% yoy in Q2).

They continue to expect the government to accelerate the pace of bond issuance and proceeds spending in coming months, speed up implementation of the new policy-based financial instrument, and keep the door open to additional easing later this year if growth slows further and the full-year growth target of “4.5-5.0%” comes under pressure.

Professional subscribers can read Goldman's full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 09:20

"US Can't Bomb Its Way To Victory": Scotiabank Maps Bessent's Coming Economic Hammer On Iran

Brent crude futures ended last week near $88.50 a barrel as traders awaited details of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's planned escalation campaign of the economic war against Iran.

Bessent said Friday that Washington would announce unprecedented economic-isolation measures next week, warning that the coming pressure campaign would be unlike anything "seen in the history of economic isolation on a country."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced upcoming unprecedented economic measures against Iran amid ongoing blockades of its ports pic.twitter.com/OV3etgd2k0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) August 14, 2026

For clarity on Bessent's upcoming economic-isolation operation against Iran, Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank in Toronto, provided clients with an assessment in which Bessent's warning could signal a move well beyond sanctioning shadow tankers and refiners, toward dismantling the entire financial network supporting Iranian oil exports.

Holt explained:

WHAT COULD BESSENT MEAN?

What could Bessent do to economically isolate Iran further that has "never been seen"?

• Target China and India: China is the main buyer of Iranian oil and is involved in undermining US sanctions. The US sanctions some individual Chinese entities and, in April, announced sanctions against Chinese "Teapot" refineries (here). The US could step up its actions by sanctioning all Chinese banks, this time including large institutions, and blocking their access to the US and global financial systems. That would push China further away from the SWIFT system and block access to correspondent and other forms of banking. It could block access to US dollar funding markets. This would very likely enrage China and risk multiple forms of retaliation and escalation.

• Broaden the scope of sanctions on Iran: This would extend the scope to any global group, company or entity involved in buying, financing, insuring or shipping Iranian oil. Looking at you, global banks, currency exchanges, commodity traders, shippers, etc. Actions under this category would aim to entirely thwart the sale of oil from Iran to China in yuan and its conversion into dollars and other currencies via exchange houses in Iran and elsewhere. You target other Middle Eastern nations facilitating this trade by blocking their access to dollar funding and global banking markets, such as Dubai's one-foot-in-and-one-foot-out stance on the war, which continues to facilitate Iranian transactions. Dubai fancies itself a financial center; you destroy such ambitions.

• Target Iranian crypto assets: This Treasury announcement last month targeted individuals and entities under a specific Iranian person's name. The US could broaden this action to include freezing access to all Iranian global holdings of crypto, gold, real estate, foreign accounts, etc.

• Target global ports: Any foreign port that facilitates trade and transactions with shipping companies that transited Iranian ports could be targeted.

He continued:

And there may well be other creative options in scale and scope. The broad point is to escalate the economic and financial blockade of the Iranian economy and financial system by enveloping all parts of the global economy, namely China, and the global financial system that allow Iran to continue to sell oil and access funding markets.

Would it work? I'm not sure. Iran knows suffering. Iran is used to being a pariah. Iran still has friends in low places. Iran has its own means of escalating, including unleashing unspeakable terror.

The consequences to the global economy and financial system could also limit or entirely thwart the chances of success. I'm sure they know the risks, but Treasury would sharply amplify tensions with China and India and could potentially cripple individual banks while not ruling out increased systemic risk within the broader financial system. Cutting off access to dollar funding markets could destabilize major players in the financial system. The spillover effects through a complicated web of connections shouldn't be treated lightly.

The US is finally getting that it can't just bash and bomb its way to victory against Iran. I'm not sure it gets the limitations and risks that could be associated with escalating broader measures at an all-encompassing global level. It could well take a bungled war that the US and Israel entered without much thought, without a strategy and without an exit plan, while not consulting Congress or allies, and compound the missteps even further and potentially more seriously.

For context, China buys more than 90% of Iran's oil exports, making it the most likely target in any effort by Bessent to cut Tehran's energy revenues. But the escalating economic war would carry significant risks. Sanctions on large Chinese companies or financial institutions could escalate tensions with Beijing ahead of a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.

Also removing discounted Iranian crude from the global market could also tighten supplies and push already elevated Brent and WTI prices higher.

Professional subscribers can read more institutional commentary on the Gulf region, covering energy markets and policies, at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 08:45

Futures Rise On Fresh Push Higher In Tech

Futures are higher again, just a few basis points away from a new all time high, led by Tech as the week starts with Semis / Memory / AI themes bid globally, as small-caps are fractionally in the red. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.1% higher, while Nasdaq futures climb 0.5% after strong revenue growth at Anthropic helped boost optimism around artificial intelligence and bolstered the view that massive spending on artificial intelligence will be sustained. Semis, Memory, and Mag7 are all higher with Software down. Cyclicals are mixed with Indu / Mats leading Fins / Discretionary, but the cohort is lead Defensives, which are dragged by HC and Staples. It is a light macro week so the positive Tech inertia may continue into NVDA earnings next week. Bond yields are flat to down 2bp as the yield curve bull steepens; higher yields remain a risk with Fed Minutes this week and Jackson Hole next week. USD continues to its decline touching a three-month low as rate hike odds faded, while commodities are bid up with strength across the 3 complexes. Crude prices appear to be holding in a range on increased cover flows in the MidEast and weaker Chinese demand. In metals, copper, silver, and palladium are the standouts. US economic data calendar includes August Empire manufacturing (8:30am), NAHB housing market index (10am) and June TIC flows (4pm). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Amazon +1.2%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.6%, Apple +0.3%, Tesla +0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Microsoft -0.7%)

• AI-linked stocks are rising after Anthropic PBC told prospective investors that its preliminary second quarter revenue was $11.5 billion, an at least 14-fold increase versus the same period a year ago. Marvell Technology (MRVL) +2%, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) +2%, Sandisk (SNDK) +4%
• Diana Shipping (DSX) is up 9% after the company pulled its offer for all the outstanding shares in Genco Shipping & Trading it doesn’t already own. The company said that Genco’s board had unrealistic price expectations.
• EyePoint (EYPT) said its experimental treatment for an eye disease failed to meet its primary goal in a late-stage trial. After being halted shares resumed lower by 66%
• L3Harris Technologies (LHX) slips 3% after the defense contractor replaced Chief Executive Officer Christopher Kubasik over conduct that “was not consistent with the values of the company.”
• Macy’s (M) is up 2% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in the company in a filing.
• Target Hospitality (TH) gains 3% after Morgan Stanley started coverage on the provider of modular housing with an overweight rating, saying the company is poised to benefit from an AI buildout that is increasingly rural.

AI-linked stocks are reasserting their leadership after a volatile July that saw investors rotate into economically sensitive sectors. Fresh evidence of surging demand for the technology came from Claude chatbot maker Anthropic whose Q2 revenue jumped at least 14-fold from a year earlier, Bloomberg News reported late Friday, largely on the back of the new faded tokenmaxxing craze. The Claude chatbot maker posted preliminary revenue of more than $11.5 billion, plus positive adjusted operating income. In other AI news, Alibaba’s open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta, Alphabet and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 AI model.

AI infrastructure stocks, rather than adopters, have so far driven market performance because of limited visibility about which companies will be able to turn investments into tangible gains in productivity and earnings, according to Goldman strategists. On the subject of earnings, Big Tech is powering profits for corporate America, with S&P 500 Index EPS rising 31% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the strongest gain outside of recoveries from major recessions in Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 1992.

“We continue to see strong risk appetite among institutional investors, particularly in areas where earnings are strongest, such as US equities and technology,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets.

More broadly, reasons to be wary about stocks are quickly disappearing and a Goldilocks scenario looks increasingly likely — which is why it’s a perfect time to hedge against a market priced for perfection, notes today’s Taking Stock. Equity dispersion continues to drop, closing last week at the lowest level since early April, while financial conditions continue to track the most accommodative levels in 30 years.

Behind the bullish metrics lies the potential for instability, with the market having recently seen a sharp reversal from a broad bid for index volatility and skew to a FOMO-fueled demand for upside calls.

In other assets, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest outflows since the end of June, with a net $389.7 million drained in the week of Aug. 10. Covert oil flows out of the Persian Gulf are helping keep global prices in check, while copper is heading toward a record high on the LME as supply tensions build.

The health of US consumers will be in focus this week when retailing giants such as Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. report earnings. Recent data showed spending cooled in July after a strong first half, while households are also getting concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation.

“Any signs of stress in the outlook, against a backdrop of slower hiring and higher borrowing costs, could challenge the resilient growth narrative,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy meeting could also attract interest. Traders have pushed back expectations for the next quarter-point Fed hike to January, though bond investors are also growing worried about heavy government borrowing and persistent fiscal concerns.

“The recent run of softer economic data has reduced the urgency for near-term tightening, so the minutes may carry less weight,” Cooper said. Still, “in a regime of the Fed keeping their cards close to the chest, any signals could be of outsized importance.”

The latest 13F filings show how one-sided AI long positioning was into July’s rout. As markets recover, the next 13F season will be a fascinating conviction test, notes Bloomberg’s Anthony Stephens. Other filings reveal Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings in Delta Air Lines and Alphabet during the second quarter, mining tycoon Gina Rinehart bought eight million shares of SpaceX and Third Point exited Meta and Nvidia.

It’s a light macro and corporate tape to start the week, but further out traders will eye more clues on the state of the consumer with earnings from Walmart, Home Depot and Target in the coming days. Fed meeting minutes are also on the way this week, along with PMI readings in the US and across Europe.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.1%, with miners and tech outperforming as rising copper prices lifted miners while chip stocks gained after Anthropic reported a strong revenue surge for the second quarter. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Chip stocks were among the top gainers in Europe on Monday after Anthropic reported a strong revenue surge for the second quarter, while software stocks slipped across the board
• Argenx jumped as much as 10%, the most in more than a year, after the company announced positive late-stage trial results for its experimental myositis treatment
• Thungela Resources shares jumped as much as 12%, the most since March, after the coal mining company reported interim results showing significant earnings growth from a year earlier
• Accelleron gained as much as 10%, the most in more than five months, after Berenberg said the turbocharger manufacturer’s current growth cycle is stronger and more durable than previously modeled, and upgraded to buy
• Sandoz shares climbed as much as 3.5% to a record high after the Swiss maker of generics and biosimilar drugs announced a collaboration agreement with Shanghai Henlius Biotech. ZKB says the deal underlines the company’s “strong position in the global distribution of biosimilars”
• SIG shares fell as much as 27%, the most since the company’s 2018 IPO, after it said in a statement it had appointed Ann-Kristin Erkens as its new CEO, replacing Mikko Keto

Asian stocks advanced at the start of the week as semiconductor stocks gained for a sixth straight session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, led by Kioxia, Tencent and Alibaba, after dropping as much as 0.2% earlier in the session. The benchmarks in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong climbed, while an Asian semiconductor gauge advanced 1.4% to extend its longest win streak since June 22. With AI-bellwether South Korea shut for a holiday, regional tech stocks showed renewed strength following a robust US earnings season, Anthropic’s second-quarter report, and the unwinding of leveraged bets. The China Star 50 Index rose more than 4% and Hang Seng Tech Index gained the most this month. Japan’s benchmark Topix snapped an eight-day win streak, after data showed economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the three months through June. Thai stocks climbed after its second-quarter GDP rose 1.9% from a year earlier, faster than the 1.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey but slower than 2.8% growth in the first quarter. Alibaba gained 1.9% in Hong Kong after disclosing a deal to sell its gaming arm and touting claims of more than 3 billion downloads for its open AI model. Meanwhile, margin balances in China and Korea have returned to 2025 levels and are rising again as sidelined funds re‑enter the market, Marvin Chen of Bloomberg Intelligence wrote in a note. 

“Technology stocks strengthened, while the decline in their day-to-day volatility is encouraging investors who had stepped back from the sector to selectively re-enter,” said. Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management.

In FX, the selloff in the greenback extends with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3% after earlier falling to its lowest level since mid-May.  USD/JPY fell as much as 0.6% to 158.60, it recovered to trade at 159.37 in the New York afternoon, holding close to the closely watched level of 160. There’s a less than 30% chance that the Fed will raise its policy rate in September, down from about 70% odds at the end of last month, according to overnight-indexed swaps. The Aussie and Swiss franc are outperforming against the greenback, each rising 0.5%.

In rates, treasuries price action is steady over Asia, early London with front end outperforming slightly, steepening curves. WTI futures and stocks trade slightly higher on the day, follows fresh fighting in Lebanon while Washington prepares new economic measures against Iran.  US 2-year yields outperform, trading richer by 1bp on the day while rest of the curve is little change vs. Friday closing levels. Steepening of curve sees 2s10s and 5s30s trade wider by 1bp and 1.2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade unchanged around 4.69% with gilts outperforming by 1.2bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Dealers estimate around $20 billion in new deals this week, with the bulk of issuance expected to be front-loaded. Gilts lead modest gains in European government bonds. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $8 billion 30-year TIPS (Thursday). 

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 0.8% to around $89 a barrel. Precious metals climb, with spot silver up over 1%. WTI futures trade up around 0.4%, just off session highs with S&P futures up around 0.15% vs. Friday close. 

US economic data calendar includes August Empire manufacturing (8:30am), NAHB housing market index (10am) and June TIC flows (4pm). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman If It Gets in Way of US: Fox 
• Fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend marked the latest setback in efforts to end parallel conflicts in the Middle East: BBG
• Trump orders Pentagon to scale back joint exercises with South Korea: RTRS
• North Korea denounces upcoming US-South Korea drills, vows stronger nuclear deterrence: RTRS
• Top US commander visits aircraft carrier, Gaza talks in Egypt and other Mideast news: AP
• US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere: AP
• Trump’s Venezuela Fixer Is Promoting ‘America First’ Oil Deals: BBG
• Iran says two French embassy employees barred from returning: RTRS
• China’s economy got off to a sluggish start in the second half of the year, reviving pressure on policymakers: BBG
• Alphabet is looking to raise about A$5 billion ($3.6 billion) in what would be its debut bond offering in Australia: BBG
• Trump crypto firm backs venture offering AI from restricted Chinese companies: RTRS
• Jane Street Lost $15 Billion in Its First Down Month in a Decade: BBG
• US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China: RTRS
• Goldman Sachs said market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are still too aggressive: BBG
• Binance gave Moscow client details used to charge Russian over Ukraine donations: RTRS
• Copper Squeeze Builds With Spreads Surging and Price Near Record: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias, following a quiet weekend of macro newsflow and amid geopolitical uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. Participants also digested a deluge of earnings and the latest data releases, while markets in South Korea are closed in observance of Liberation Day. ASX 200 was subdued as weakness in consumer discretionary, financials and real estate offset the gains in miners, resources and materials, while there is a slew of earnings releases, including 'big 4' bank NAB, which posted higher profits but noted cooling home loan demand. Nikkei 225 price action was choppy following disappointing GDP data, which could support the argument for the BoJ to refrain from hiking rates next month, although money markets are still leaning towards the central bank resuming rate increases at the September conclave. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive amid a slew of earnings and with the advances in Hong Kong led by chipmaker SMIC, while platform companies such as JD.com and Alibaba were also underpinned, with the latter helped by the sale of its gaming arm and news its AI models hit 3bln downloads.

Top Asian News

• China's NBS said the external environment remains complex but they are going to continue expanding domestic demand, however some firms face operating difficulties. Additionally, NBS said the country has solid conditions to achieve its annual growth targets.

European bourses start the week mixed but in light volumes, given the Summer lull. Not much in terms of drivers to give a clear direction, with weekend geopolitical newsflow light. The 60-day US-Iran MoU deadline expires today, although the expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran's Foreign Ministry held its weekly press conference, in which they said no talks have begun due to Washington's violation of the MoU, while stating that talks with Oman continue. Sectors highlight the mixed picture. Basic Resources outperform, given the lift in 3M LME copper prices to new ATHs, while Tech is supported following reports from Bloomberg that Anthropic reported Q2 revenue of over USD 11.5bln (prev. 0.79bln Y/Y). To the downside is Optimised Personal Care, Food Beverages & Tobacco and Retail

Top European News

• JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon reportedly warned UK Chancellor Healey against creating a more hostile tax environment for banks, the FT reported. Dimon said that higher taxes drive jobs away, using the decline in financial roles in New York as an example, the report added.
• Fitch affirmed the UK at ‘AA-‌’‌; outlook Stable.

FX

• Continued USD weakness throughout the morning saw DXY fall to a 99.30 trough, its lowest since 5th June, while EUR/USD eclipsed the 1.16 mark, not seen since 17th June. The move was gradual and over the course of roughly an hour, the initial downticks without a driver, but later weakness seen around remarks from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which signalled commitment to the diplomatic process; remarks which also modestly weighed on Brent at the time. Analysts expect the USD weakness to continue, ING suggesting the USD can “probably trade to the soft side all week”, while others highlight the soft July data series; for now, DXY -0.2%, the level to watch below is the 200 DMA just below 99.20.
• Action elsewhere is very quiet, G10s mostly move in tandem with USD weakness.
• GBP/USD +0.2%, off the back of the weaker USD with UK catalysts light, Cable trading just above 1.3560, above all significant DMAs. Over the weekend, FT reported that Jamie Dimon warned the Treasury against raising bank taxes, a report which highlights the proximity of the Autumn budget. GBP is primed for a busy week of data, Tuesday sees Jobs data, Wednesday is inflation, Friday is Retail Sales.
• Low yielders are among the best performers as some likely carry USD positions unwind. USD/CHF -0.4%, testing the 50 DMA, USD/SEK -0.4% ahead of the Riksbank this week. High-beta currencies are also doing well on the back of easing Fed expectations which has helped the risk environment; markets now assign a 30% probability of tightening in September, last week was c. 50%.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are trading mixed this morning, with USTs (+2+ ticks) around recent lows, whilst Bunds (-8 ticks) move a touch lower. As it stands, USTs hold towards the upper end of a 108-16+ to 108-24+ range. Macro newsflow was lacklustre over the weekend, with focus ultimately on the expiration of the US-Iran MoU, which is set to occur today. Whether there is a fresh round of hostilities remains to be seen, but the risk remains (a full piece and scenario analysis can be found on the board at 07:05 BST).
• As it stands, US yields are lower across the curve, with mild underperformance in the front-end/belly of the curve; a continuation of the action seen last week following the soft US data. ING opines that the 10yr yield could be subject to upward pressure for some time, citing fiscal deterioration and continued focus on the JPY intervention story. The Dutch bank concludes by writing that “we see yields still gravitating more toward the upper end of the recent range”. For reference, the 10yr hit a high of 4.73% on 11 August vs current 4.67%.
• Key US data is lacking for the remainder of the day, and in fact for the remainder of the week. The FOMC Minutes of the July meeting will provide a better understanding of how policymakers are thinking about the policy rate ahead of the September meeting; as it stands, money markets assign a 26% chance of a hike next month.
• Bunds are trading with very mild losses this morning, whilst Gilts are flat. The lack of macro newsflow and pertinent European/UK data has led to tentative action so far, but a slew of UK data is dotted throughout the week, which will be key in determining BoE pricing. As it stands, money markets assign a 24% chance of a hike in Sept, and fully price in a 25bps hike by year-end. On the fiscal side of things, JPMorgan’s Dimon warned the UK Chancellor against raising bank taxes and creating a more hostile tax environment for banks.

Commodities

• Energy futures are mostly subdued within recent ranges with a lack of notable geopolitics from over the weekend, and with the US-Iran MoU effectively lapsing today (full analysis on the Newsquawk board). Briefly, the 60-day US-Iran Islamabad MoU expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran argues there is no ceasefire left to extend because the US already violated the agreement, while there is currently no confirmed deal to extend or replace the MoU. The key market focus is on whether the expiry results in renewed negotiations, additional US sanctions, further military escalation or progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The morning saw commentary from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which reiterated recent comments but prompted modest losses in the complex as Tehran said talks with Oman are ongoing.
• WTI and Brent trade higher by 0.40-0.80/bbl intraday, with the former within a USD 80.80-82.16/bbl range, and the latter in a USD 88.01-89.40/bbl range. WTI sees slightly deeper losses than Brent, with the Baker Hughes rig count on Friday pointing to expanding US drilling activity. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF bucks the trend with some gains as demand props up prices as Europe refills winter storage. Dutch TTF is firmer by some 1.5% intraday and resides just above EUR 62/MWh after finding resistance around EUR 63/MWh earlier.
• Precious metals are supported by subdued energy prices, in turn weighing on inflation expectations and thus the Dollar. Spot gold topped its 100 DMA once again (USD 4,386/oz) and resides in a current USD 4,367-4,416/oz range after topping Friday’s USD 4,397/oz peak, and vs last week’s USD 4,449/oz high. Spot silver trades towards the upper end of a USD 65.60-66.22/oz range, vs last week’s USD 66.80/oz peak.
• Base metals are similarly propped up, with 3M LME copper hitting record highs of USD 14,387.60/t (vs intraday USD 14,164.33/t). Another supporting factor for base metals could be the downbeat, delayed Chinese Activity data, which printed worse-than-expected across the board and further raises the argument for more stimulus from Beijing.
• At least 2 Asian refiners have asked Saudi Aramco if they can take their oil cargoes from Egypt's Sidi Kerir port, instead of through Yanbu, Bloomberg reported.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Hamas leaders in Egypt to discuss a Gaza peace deal, while it was reported by Axios that the meeting was said to be very productive and Hamas leaders reaffirmed their commitment to disarmament and demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the MoU signed with the US does not stipulate a 60-day deadline and that no talks have begun with the US due to violations. The Ministry added that there are ongoing contacts with Qatar, which is playing an influential role in de-escalation efforts. On talks with Oman, they said talks are ongoing but that they are long due to the complexity of the subject, multiple actors involved and countries seeking to undermine the process.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the US, and that Washington must meet conditions on the strait in order for shipping to resume in the waterway, according to an interview with Shahrara News.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and closed only under Iran's command, while he warned that as long as the US does not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade.
• IRGC senior commander said though Iran's military actions have remained strictly defensive since the outbreak of hostilities, the armed forces are fully prepared to adopt an offensive posture if necessary, while he cautioned adversaries to expect strategic surprises.
• A high-ranking source said that Bab al-Mandab is closed to Saudi ships in both directions, adding that the "blockade-for-blockade" policy remains in place and will continue, Arabic TV reported.
• Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) security said two drones attacked the KRG PM's office and the residence of the head of the Protection Agency, adding that the attacks were launched from Iranian territory and no casualties were reported.
• Iran and Oman seem to be moving closer to reaching an agreement regarding management of the key waterway, despite increasing ship attacks, while a finalisation of the shipping map is said to form part of a wider accord to govern shipping through the strait.
• Only five commodity vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday, according to shiptracking data from Kpler.
• Qatar's PM spoke with Jordan's Foreign Minister and discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at easing regional tensions.
• Israel conducted artillery attacks on the city of Mansouri in southern Lebanon.
• Yemen conducted strikes on Saudi-linked mercenary targets in Mokha and Marib, destroying weapon depots and command facilities, according to Tehran Times citing a statement on Saturday.
• Yemeni government forces said Houthi militias launched a new attack with two missiles in Bab al-Mandab.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• EU foreign policy chief Kallas announced plans to introduce the most extensive sanctions package against Russia since the beginning of the war in the coming months.
• Ukraine's Naftogaz said production has been lost following Russian attacks.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump posted "Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea.... Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises!"
• South Korean President Lee called for a sit-down with North Korea to pursue peaceful coexistence and wants to transform the Korean peninsula’s unstable armistice into a peace regime.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we enter the second half of August, you’ll have Henry and I for company over the next couple of weeks as Jim makes his regular summer trip to the Alps. Many market participants, including Jim, will have been happy to see some signs of a summer lull emerging last week, as the VIX volatility index fell to a 2026 low on Friday.

However, while global equity indices are at or close to all-time highs, we’re seeing more challenging August crosswinds playing out in bond markets. Expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike have been pulled back, but this has been accompanied by a significant US curve steepening, with the backdrop of higher oil prices, elevated fiscal deficits, and demand for capital from the AI investment boom putting upward pressure on yields. The resulting long-end sell-off has also been a global affair, with 10yr OAT yields ending last week at their highest level since 2009 and the 30yr bund yields reaching a post-2011 high of 3.73% (see the full weekly recap at the end).

Bond markets could face further tests this week, with events including the flash August PMIs (Friday), minutes of the July FOMC meeting (Wednesday), as well as China’s monthly activity data a little later this morning. Meanwhile, this week’s 20yr Treasury auction (Wednesday) may become the most expensive Treasury bond issuance in the past 25 years – the current post-2001 high is a 5.245% yield at a 20yr auction in October 2023 and 20yr yields were 5.26% as of Friday.

The higher yield story is also playing out in Asia this morning, with 10yr JGB yields trading +3.3bps higher to a post-1996 high of 2.93%. That increase comes even as this morning’s GDP data showed Japan’s economy expanded by a slower-than-expected +1.1% annualised in Q2 (vs +2.0% expected, +1.9% previous). The slowing came amid disappointing domestic activity, as business investment fell by -1.2% QoQ, while private consumption saw zero growth (vs. +0.4% exp.). Next in focus will be the national CPI release on Friday, but for now markets are still pricing a 79% chance of a BoJ hike in September.

Following Japan’s GDP data, the Nikkei (+0.30%) is slightly higher but underperforming gains in China’s markets including the CSI 300 (+0.76%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.84% ) as well as the Hang Seng (+1.61%) in Hong Kong. Equity futures are also advancing, with NASDAQ futures (+0.35%) leading those on the S&P 500 (+0.10%) and Europe’s Stoxx 50 (+0.30%) this morning. In other markets, Brent crude (+0.09%) is little changed at $88.60/bbl this morning in the absence of material weekend news around Iran, after a +5.95% rise last week, including +1.67% on Friday as Trump suggested he’d put more pressure on Iran’s economy. Meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields (-1.2bps) are slightly lower this morning after last week’s sell-off. Fed fund futures are pricing just a 30% chance of a September rate cut as I type, continuing the pullback that started following the softer July jobs report on August 7 and persisted with the fairly sanguine CPI and PPI prints last week.

That Fed pricing will be in focus with the minutes of the July FOMC meeting due on Wednesday. Given Chair Warsh has stepped back from offering policy guidance, the minutes may shed extra light on how the Fed is weighing inflation risks as well as their urgency to act should those risks remain elevated. Chair Warsh described the July discussion as a “good family fight” following the meeting, which saw three dissents in favour of a 25bps hike. While the minutes will be slightly stale after last week’s relatively tame CPI and PPI data, the +0.18% MoM reading our economists now foresee for July core PCE inflation still translates to a +3.2% YoY pace. So while the inter-meeting inflation data has likely reduced the urgency for imminent action by the Fed, they are far from providing sufficient confidence that inflation is trending back to the Fed’s objective.

Investors will also be watching the details of the FOMC discussion in the context of the sharp curve steepening we’ve seen since the July Fed meeting. The 2s10s slope has steepened by +20bps since July 28, its sharpest 13-session rise since the post-Liberation Day Treasury sell off last April.

Turning to this week’s data in more detail, the highlight will come with the flash August PMIs on Friday, including those for the US, Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and Japan. The resilience in economic activity data, including the PMIs, in the face of the Iran energy shock has been an important factor in supporting continued pricing of rate hikes across the major economies. Indeed, in July the composite PMI reached its highest levels since the start of the year in both the US and the Euro area.

In other events, we’ll have the latest Riksbank decision on Thursday, which is expected to keep rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting. Elsewhere in Europe, we’ll have the ZEW survey in Germany on Tuesday and the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey due Friday. For the latter, our own dbDataInsights survey suggests an uptick in short-term expectations but more stable medium-term ones. Otherwise, the UK will dominate the European data calendar, with the July inflation print on Wednesday, labour market data on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday. For the CPI print, our UK economists expect headline at 2.92% YoY and core CPI at 2.54%.

Before all that, the focus will be on China July activity data, including retail sales and industrial production, which will be out an hour or so after this hits your inboxes. The release comes as China’s domestic demand growth has been lacklustre in recent months, putting the reflation that has emerged since late 2025 at risk. Underwhelming domestic growth has also contributed to the underperformance in China’s equity market, with the main indices essentially flat YTD, in contrast to a +13.7% rise for the S&P 500, +11.1% for the Stoxx 600 and +36.5% for the Nikkei.

As the earnings season begins to wind down, the spotlight will be on the US retailers Home Depot (Tuesday), Target, TJX (Wednesday) and Walmart (Thursday) to gauge the health of the US consumer. Other names to watch include Analog Devices and Deere in the US and Alibaba and Baidu in China.

Recapping last week now, bond markets were caught between reacting to the ongoing deadlock between Iran and the US and a string of mixed US inflation and activity data. The US economic data story ultimately dominated the narrative at the front-end, with 2yr Treasury yields falling -2.5bps over the week (+2.8bps on Friday) as markets dialled back the likelihood of a September Fed hike. That followed the July CPI and PPI prints, which saw core CPI slow to 2.5% y/y, its slowest pace since early 2021. Friday’s data was also on the softer side, including July retail sales (-0.6% m/m vs +0.1% m/m est) and the preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment (51.0 vs 55.0 est).

By contrast, longer-dated yields moved higher following a sizeable sell-off on Friday, with 10yr yield up +4.7bps to 4.69% (+4.9bps Friday), whilst the 30yr yield (+5.8bps, +4.7bps on Friday) ended the week at 5.26%, less than 2bps from their post-2007 high reached in late July.
The bond sell-off was more pronounced in Europe, where 10yr bund yields rose +7.2bps to 3.20% (+7.3bps on Friday), whilst 10yr OAT yields (+12.9bps, +10.2bps on Friday) reached their highest level since 2009 at 4.04%. And in the UK, 10yr gilts (+11.6bps, +8.4bps on Friday) saw their largest weekly sell-off since May. In addition to being more sensitive to the rise in oil, European bonds weren’t helped by a +10.59% rise in front-month TTF natural gas prices (+1.67% on Friday). Meanwhile, wheat prices moved +5.47% higher (+3.37% higher on Friday) following damage to Russian export infrastructure. These moves reignited inflation concerns, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap rising +19.9bps (+4.8bps on Friday), its largest weekly gain since mid-July.

While bonds struggled, US equities put in a more positive performance. The S&P 500 rose +0.36% despite a -0.17% pullback on Friday from Thursday’s record high, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.12%, +0.51% Friday) also reaching a record high. Tech stocks stabilised after their recent rebound, with the Nasdaq (+0.14%, -0.28% Friday) and the Philly Semiconductor Index (+0.49%, -0.31% Friday) seeing small weekly gains, though the Mag-7 lost ground (-0.97%, -0.22% Friday). And amid the uneventful US data and a quieter August period, the VIX volatility index (-0.65pts) ended the week at a 2026 low of 14.25.

European equities were more subdued, with the STOXX 600 (-0.36%, -0.21% Friday), the CAC (-0.90%, -0.16% Friday) and the FTSE 100 (-1.38%, -0.21% Friday) falling back, though the DAX (+0.46%, +0.53% Friday) reached a new record. And in Asia, we saw strong gains for the KOSPI (+11.49%) and Nikkei (+4.74%), which saw their best weeks since May and June respectively.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 08:39

Trump Says US To 'Substantially Reduce' Military Drills With S.Korea, Cites 'Very Good Relationship' With Kim

President Trump revealed Sunday he has ordered the Pentagon to scale back joint military exercises with longtime close ally South Korea, surprisingly mentioning his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as a motivating factor in the decision.

Trump said in a Truth Social posts that exercises, due to start on Monday, are costly and "send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile" to North Korea, which he said "has been unthreatening and respectful" during his time in office.

"Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea," Trump stated.

Via CNN, from historic Trump-Kim meeting during the US President's first term.

Not only did Trump have somewhat glowing things to say about Pyongyang - perhaps in an effort to again jump start the kind of direct diplomacy and meetings with Kim that marked his first term - but he at the same time denigrated some recent stances of South Korea on the global stage.

He invoked Seoul's stance on the US-Israel war on Iran, which marked a huge disappointment for the White House.

"I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, ‘No thanks!'" he said.

Still, Trump lamented that it is actually too late to cancel the drills, and so ordered War Secretary Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce" them.

The 10-day Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise kicked off Monday, and involves tens of thousands of military personnel from the United States, South Korea participate - but also other allied countries such as Australia.

South Korea’s Ministry of Defense responded to media questions about Trump's post by saying the military exercises would "proceed as previously notified and scheduled."

Going into this past weekend North Korea issued a severe warning over the upcoming joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea, characterizing it as a rehearsal for an aggressive war and that it is is ready to respond.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry described Friday that these planned drills look different, and will be more dangerous, compared to all prior ones of the past-half decade, in that they appear offensive in nature as the exercise will focus on modern warfare tactics.

"The US announced that the forthcoming exercises are quite different from the ones of the past five years and intended to master the ability of fighting a war on the basis of the new aspects of modern warfare," the North Korea condemnation reads. 

"By doing so, it did not conceal its aim to complete preparations for the substantial military confrontation with the DPRK. This is tantamount to an admission that the exercises, which the US and the ROK describe as 'annual' and 'defensive' ones, are a rehearsal for an aggressive war," the ministry added in a statement published by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Beyond trying to possibly inject new life into Washington diplomacy with Pyongyang, it's unclear what the ultimate aim of Trump's conciliatory social media post is. Is he perhaps trying to signal China? Is he really just angry at Seoul? Or he's maybe worried over Kim's nuclear expanse and modernization drive, and so wishes to start dealing with that in more direction fashion?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 08:20

CXMT Becomes China's Most Valuable Company As UBS Calls Apple Sourcing Report A "Key Catalyst"

Shares of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China's top DRAM maker, surged 12% to a record 61.80 yuan on Monday, lifting its market capitalization to 4.13 trillion yuan. The upside is because reports that Apple is considering using CXMT memory chips, alongside continued momentum across chip stocks following last week's gains in SanDisk and Micron. 

UBS analyst Jason Milao, who covers CXMT (now China's most valuable company) with a "Buy" rating and a 70 yuan price target, wrote in a note earlier that CXMT's gains on Monday were primarily driven by the "key catalyst" of Apple sourcing optionality.

The Apple sourcing optionality for CXMT memory chips stems from multiple reports by The Wall Street Journal, which said Apple has considered using memory chips from a company blacklisted by the Pentagon over alleged ties to the People's Liberation Army amid a global memory shortage. The WSJ released an interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Saturday morning, who said the Trump administration does not recommend that Tim Cook's company use CXMT as a chip substitute.

Milao continued:

China A-shares traded higher Monday morning, with the CSI 300 up ~0.8%. Tech rallied as CXMT jumped 9% on Apple sourcing optionality.

Across the broader AI compute chain, H1 results have been solid, albeit largely in line, with Foxconn, Cambricon, and Hygon all delivering earnings. The setup continues to support the AI hardware trade.

He added:

Meanwhile, CXMT's rally has created additional room for the broader China tech trade. The move provides investors with a fresh anchor for domestic substitution, memory tightness, and AI hardware exposure, helping to attract capital into other high-beta technology names as the market rotates away from domestic economy-related sectors.

Analyst recommendations tracked by Bloomberg show 5 "Buy" ratings and 1 "Neutral," with a 12-month price target of 76 yuan.

 The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) has rebounded in recent weeks following a six-week drawdown.

Broader semiconductor stocks in Asia advanced, with SMIC and Hua Hong gaining more than 7% in Hong Kong. Tencent and Alibaba, meanwhile, have tumbled roughly 25% and 14%, respectively, this year as investors question AI monetization and China's soft consumer backdrop.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 07:45

GB News Host Forced From Home By Migrant Gang Death Threats

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

GB News presenter Patrick Christys was ordered by police to abandon his home in the middle of the night after a credible death threat from the Channel people-smuggling gangs he continues to expose in Calais.

The threat-to-life notice from the Metropolitan Police left Christys and his heavily pregnant wife, fellow GB News presenter Emily Carver, packing bags and fleeing to a safe house. One of the men he confronted later turned up on a London street.

A year on, the official warning remains in place and the family still has round-the-clock security.

Patrick Christys, who presents the Tonight current affairs show on GB News, has told The Mail on Sunday the threat is so serious that the Metropolitan Police ordered him to abandon his home in the small hours of the morning. https://t.co/ksSzsXiSHB via https://t.co/yKLuHcxeAT

— Xenomorph (@PetenShirl) August 16, 2026

Christys has spent years on the front line documenting the illegal migrant invasion. In May 2025 he delivered one of the most blunt on-the-ground interviews yet from the Calais camps, capturing the entitlement culture driving the crossings.

That same determination took him back to northern France last July. He found the gangs advertising openly on TikTok, then switching to WhatsApp to discuss prices, times and locations. Authorities did little. So Christys and a camera crew went and confronted them themselves.

You need to hear this. Patrick Christys went to a migrant shelter and asked why so many choose the UK over other countries like France. Their answers were brutally honest: "Because the British are good people. They give us money, free education, free housing, everything we need."... pic.twitter.com/uJZUTEKfT3

— Yossi BenYakar (@YossiBenYakar) June 11, 2026

"I realised how easy it was to track them down," he told the Mail on Sunday. "They advertise on TikTok. Then to talk about locations, times, prices, you move on to WhatsApp. Yet nothing seemed to be done. So, we decided to front them up ourselves."

By midday he had faced three smugglers and received death threats on the spot. One had a WhatsApp profile picture posing with automatic weapons.

GB News' Patrick Christys is in Calais speaking to illegal immigrants en route to the UK.

This one travelled through 7 countries so far.

Not refugees but invaders! ? pic.twitter.com/a30EckPgOE

— UK Justice Forum ?? Latest Video News Updates! (@Justice_forum) May 14, 2025

The real blow came days later. Christys was live on air when his wife called during an ad break: the police were at their flat. Someone wanted to kill him.

"I got back just after midnight on July 25. The police read out an official 'threat to life' notice," he said. "It said, 'As a result of your recent journalistic coverage of organised crime groups in northern France we are aware that members of those organised immigration crime groups are seeking to actively engage with you to cause you significant harm.'"

Officers were blunter still: get out immediately, pack a bag, do not drive the car in case it is booby-trapped, take a black cab to a safe house and do not come back.

'I know enough French to know you just called me racist!'@PatrickChristys confronts a charity group in Northern France who evade his questions, as he discovers a manual for migrants planning to illegally cross to the UK. pic.twitter.com/gKaYXX82wN

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 21, 2025

A panic alarm was fitted the next day. The couple were later allowed home under strict conditions, told to disguise themselves if they went out. Their son George was born a few weeks later. Stepping outside the hospital for a cigarette, Christys spotted one of the Calais runners he had exposed - distinctive Palestinian-flag-style ring and all - walking straight towards him.

"He walked up to me, paused and I thought, 'This is it. He's going to do me'. We locked eyes and he held my gaze, and then walked off. I'm 100 per cent sure it was the same man."

Worse followed. Contractors arrived to remove the panic alarm. It had already been disconnected for ten days without anyone telling the family, because the police "didn't have enough."

Twelve months later the threat-to-life warning has never been lifted. GB News is paying for continuous security patrols. Christys is clear about the source: illegal migrant organised crime gangs operating both in northern France and inside Britain.

"This is personal for me," he said. "I want everyone to understand the reality of who we're letting in to our country. These human traffickers wanted to kill me in my own home while my wife was eight months pregnant. Who knows if they'd have tried to harm my wife and son in order to get to me?"

He added, "It makes me incredibly angry that we let illegals into the country - who we all pay for. Then we let those same people make millions of pounds trafficking yet more illegals to Britain. They feel so emboldened, they thought they could kill a TV journalist in his own home and get away with it."

GB News' @PatrickChristys & his wife Emily @CarverEmily left their property in the early hours of the morning after threats from Channel people smugglers, who wanted to kill him.

He was once tracked down in a London street after exposing the gangs. A colossal Uniparty fail.... pic.twitter.com/snNi78bou9

— David Atherton (@daveatherton) August 16, 2026

In his own words on X, Christys thanked supporters and GB News for keeping the family safe. He said the public needed to know exactly how dangerous these gangs are.

?? Thanks for all the well wishes and thanks @GBNEWS for doing everything to help keep our family safe. It was very scary at the time. Wasn't sure whether or not to share publicly but I think the public should know how dangerous these illegal migrant gangs are. https://t.co/sAsIxiZUwE

— Patrick Christys (@PatrickChristys) August 16, 2026

Intelligence agencies would only tell the Met that the threat came from illegal migrant organised crime groups, without specifics.

The same gangs who traffic people across the Channel in rubber dinghies feel secure enough to threaten a British journalist in his own home and then appear on a London street. Police resources stretch far enough to disconnect a panic alarm without notice, yet somehow the multimillion-pound smuggling networks continue to operate in plain sight.

Christys is not staying silent. He has already said he will return to northern France. The gangs tried to scare a journalist into stopping. They failed.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 07:20

"Ballpark To Battlefield": Ondas' M&A Blitz Builds Drone And Ground Robotics Empire

Our mid-June initiation, "How To Profit From the Asymmetric Warfare Boom," identified the leading public and private companies positioned across the drone and counter-drone space.

Our first single-name coverage focused on Unusual Machines on July 23 (read here). The stock has since surged nearly 77% (read here), signaling that Wall Street is beginning to reprice these defense names as the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Gulf-area conflict have forever changed how warfare is conducted on the modern battlefield.

As our asymmetric-warfare boom theme continues to evolve, our attention now shifts to another AI-enabled defense and drone company that has spent the year on a merger-and-acquisition spree to expand its drone offerings ahead of a massive procurement supercycle for these technologies from the Department of War.

The bull thesis surrounding Ondas, according to Roth analyst Scott Searle, is that the company's acquisition spree is transforming it into a potential next-generation defense prime and that it will soon become a major supplier of autonomous battlefield systems.

Searle initiated coverage of Ondas last week with a "Buy" rating and a $13 price target, implying roughly 40% upside from its Aug. 10 closing price of $9.31.

Searle said Ondas is evolving from a niche drone vendor into what he calls a multi-domain autonomy platform spanning counter-drone systems, intelligence and surveillance aircraft, precision-strike weapons, ground robots, and electronic warfare, encompassing the same low-cost drones, counter-drone systems, and ground robots present across multiple theaters in Eurasia.

At the center of Ondas' strategy is SkyWeaver, an AI platform developed with Palantir Technologies. SkyWeaver connects Ondas' drones, ground vehicles, sensors, and stratospheric surveillance platforms into a single command-and-control network.

All of this puts Ondas directly in the path of a massive procurement supercycle spurred by the Department of War. Searle estimates that the global market for autonomous and AI-driven defense systems exceeds $100 billion, with Ondas positioning itself to address more than $45 billion of that opportunity.

"Ondas has emerged as a viable and diversified next-gen provider for multi-domain autonomous Defense Tech solutions. Fueled by a wave of 14 acquisitions, ONDS has transformed from a point product drone vendor to a global, diversified supplier of agentic AI-enabled air, land, and cyber solutions. When combined with rapidly advancing battlefield requirements, evolving technology trends and expanding military and defense budgets, Ondas is well positioned for the $100B+ emerging TAM," Searle told clients.

Ondas has announced 14 acquisitions since October 2025, deploying roughly $2.1 billion after raising about $1.9 billion from investors. The largest of those M&A targets was the $875.8 million purchase of DZYNE Technologies, which added long-endurance aircraft, autonomous strike platforms, drone swarms, and counter-UAS systems. The transaction expanded Ondas' portfolio across all five Pentagon drone classifications, including the largest high-altitude platforms.

Other M&A events:

• Omnisys, an Israeli developer of AI-based battlefield resource optimization software, for $196.6 million.
• Mistral, a US defense contractor with access to Army and Special Operations procurement vehicles, for $175 million.
• World View, a developer of stratospheric surveillance platforms, for $150 million.
• Cyberhawk, a drone-based critical-infrastructure inspection company, for $125 million.
• SentryCS, an Israeli counter-drone cyber specialist, for $224.6 million.
• Roboteam, 4M Defense, and INDO Earth, which collectively expanded Ondas into ground robotics, military engineering, and autonomous demining.

The result is a portfolio stretching "from the ballpark to the battlefield," including systems capable of protecting military bases, borders, airports, stadiums, and critical infrastructure.

Ondas entered 2026 expecting annual revenue of between $170 million and $180 million. Following its latest acquisitions, the company now expects more than $525 million in revenue, with an annualized exit rate approaching $1 billion.

Searle forecasts revenue of $520.5 million in 2026, $1 billion in 2027, and $1.23 billion in 2028. The company has reported a backlog of $457 million, $1.6 billion in program wins, and a two-year opportunity pipeline valued at $4.3 billion.

Ondas shares have remained range-bound between roughly $6 and $14 over the past year. A sustained breakout above the upper end of that range would indicate that overhead supply has been absorbed and could clear the way for renewed momentum. Conversely, if the company's recent acquisitions fail to generate the expected revenue and integration benefits, the trading range could turn out to be a bust...

Bloomberg data shows nine analyst are "Buy" rated. The 12-month price target is $19.28. 

Ondas is another single-name drone company we are adding to our watchlist, alongside Unusual Machines, which we initiated coverage on last month before the massive spike in recent weeks.

Professional subscribers can read more about defense tech at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 06:55

Second Ceuta Border Invasion Attempt Underway As Military-Aged Migrants Mass Near Spanish Enclave

Summary: 

• Second Ceuta Border Invasion Attempt By Sub-Saharan Africans Ilegals 
• Public Health Disaster Unfolds In Ceuta After First Invasion, Weeks Ago
• Hybrid Warfare Fears Mount As Migrant Flows Weaponized 
• Italy's Schengen suspension with Spain will remain until security risks disappear

Weaponized Migrant Flows: Spain's Ceuta Border Under Attack (Again) 

Multiple open-source reports indicate that thousands of illegal aliens are massing near Spain's Ceuta border, raising the prospect of coordinated attempts to breach the enclave for the second time.

If verified, the invasion attempt comes just weeks after the first round, in which more than 60,000 military-aged men attempted to breach the border. This only suggests that migrant flows are being deliberately weaponized to pressure the socialist government in Madrid, potentially marking a second phase of sustained border destabilization.

Official reporting from news outlet France 24 says:

Morocco has deployed heavy security around the border city of Fnideq after false social media rumours claimed the border to Spain's Ceuta enclave would open. Hundreds of migrants, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, have gathered nearby, raising fears of another mass crossing just weeks after tens of thousands attempted to enter the Spanish territory.

Paris-based, state-owned RFI (Radio France Internationale) says:

Scores of would-be migrants, most of them from sub-Saharan Africa, were intercepted in northern Morocco near the border with the Spanish exclave of Ceuta on Saturday, two weeks after tens of thousands of people attempted to enter the territory.

Publicly available footage in the social media domain, most of which was posted on X from late Saturday into early Sunday, shows what appear to be swarms of illegal aliens trying to breach the Ceuta border.

🔴 #ÚLTIMAHORA Cientos de inmigrantes se preparan para asaltar Ceuta. Desde Castillejos, cientos de inmigrantes se dirigen hacia Ceuta para volver a cruzar el espigón del Tarajal.

📍Informa @joanguirado desde la ciudad autónoma

🔗 https://t.co/94ygyUMWWY pic.twitter.com/RJDbU2cufI

— ABC.es (@abc_es) August 15, 2026

Thousands and thousands of illegal migrants trying to storm the border of Spain and Europe.

The assault on Ceuta continues pic.twitter.com/MnrtaMts2Z

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 16, 2026

Thousands of Moroccan migrants again attempt to enter Spain’s Ceuta enclave, just two weeks after the previous mass influx. pic.twitter.com/EoECVfgHhT

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 16, 2026

Let's circle back to our briefing on Aug. 5, or about 11 days ago, that pointed to new signals that a second round of weaponized migrant flows would be heading to the Ceuta border by mid-month:

• New Signals Point To Another Possible Migrant Invasion Against Ceuta

Earlier, we commented on the deteriorating conditions in Ceuta as it faces a public health disaster posed by the military-aged invaders.

A doctor in Ceuta told the media: "I don't know what diseases I'm bringing home. I can't even take my dog for a walk. Every day we receive reports of girls who have been raped."

Doctora en Ceuta: «No sé qué enfermedades me estoy llevando a casa. No puedo salir a pasear a mi perro. Todos los días recibimos denuncias de niñas violadas». #InvasiónCeuta #SánchezDimisión pic.twitter.com/VjHr5N0R5N

— 🇪🇦 Generación X (@JoseGeneracionX) August 14, 2026

We suspect Italy's Schengen suspension with Spain will remain until security risks disappear. EU leaders have warned these migrant flows are part of 'Hybrid Warfare' ... 

Must Reads:

• The Ceuta Crisis And The Emerging European Divide
• Italy Suspends Schengen Travel Agreement With Spain After Horrifying Ceuta Invasion
• 22 EU Leaders Demand "Immediate Action" As Migrant Invasion Raises Fear Of Hybrid Warfare

Spain's Vox Party Demands Morocco Pay For Migration Crisis As Ceuta Faces Public Health Disaster

Via Remix News,

A massive influx of migrants into Spain's Ceuta has pushed the autonomous city's healthcare infrastructure to the brink of collapse, prompting urgent warnings from medical professionals and triggering a fierce political battle in Madrid over who should foot the bill.

Thousands of Moroccan migrants again attempt to enter Spain’s Ceuta enclave, just two weeks after the previous mass influx. pic.twitter.com/EoECVfgHhT

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 16, 2026

With an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 migrants still remaining in an enclave of just 80,000 residents and 19 square kilometers, local resources are severely overstretched, leaving health services struggling to contain potential infectious disease outbreaks.

These health services are also dealing with cases of rape, physical assaults, and other injuries associated with the massive influx of migrants. Meanwhile, locals say the beaches are occupied by migrants, leading to sprawling tent camps, feces, urine, and the spread of infectious diseases during a critical holiday beach season.

🇪🇸🔴Ceuta beaches are completely occupied by migrants, according to locals.

"We can't take our kids to the beach, we can't go. They are occupied, they are full of shacks, people are eating there, throwing food, it's full of clothes, feces, urine."

Infectious diseases like… pic.twitter.com/XzFztXYJb6

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 13, 2026

Medical staff on the front lines describe a system operating under extreme uncertainty. At Ceuta University Hospital, officials have opened a specialized 30-bed emergency wing intended for disaster scenarios. Many of these beds are occupied not out of acute medical necessity, but because doctors cannot safely release vulnerable patients onto the streets. As sources at the facility explained, "admission responds to the impossibility of discharging patients and sending them back to the streets."

The pressure extends far beyond hospital walls into improvised encampments, such as the one at Trampolín beach. Julián Domínguez, president of the Association for the Defense of Public Health of Ceuta, highlighted the immense logistical challenge of providing street-level care to thousands of unsheltered people.

"The lack of hygienic spaces and isolation areas makes monitoring and controlling communicable conditions particularly difficult," he said.

Medical personnel are already identifying cases of concern, including scabies, tuberculosis, and unexplained fevers. Speaking on the news program En boca de todos, a Ceuta emergency physician warned that conditions are rapidly shifting:

"Scabies is not a disease that has been eradicated, but there were very few cases, which are currently increasing," said the doctor.

#ÚLTIMAHORA | Alerta en Ceuta por posible riesgo de sarna y tuberculosis: "Muchos inmigrantes vienen con fiebre".

➡️ ¿Infravalora Mónica García el riesgo de enfermedades? Te leemos en #EnBocaDeTodos.

🔴 #EnBocaDeTodos en @cuatro con @davidalemantv
➡ https://t.co/OiGsSTHtqS pic.twitter.com/k6iRfMkXfp

— En boca de todos (@EnBocaDe_Todos) August 13, 2026

Addressing the risk of other contagious illnesses, the doctor added: "There are still patients with tuberculosis from time to time, but we really don't know if there will be many more with the massive entry of immigrants to Ceuta… We are having fever infections without focus, many immigrant patients who do not know exactly what the cause of the infection."

Vox party demands Morocco foot the bill

The escalating medical emergency has sparked a fierce response from the anti-immigration Vox party. The party, led by Santiago Abascal, registered initiatives in Congress demanding that the Spanish government guarantee the operational capacity of the National Institute of Health Management (INGESA) and take decisive legal steps against Morocco.

Vox argues that Spanish citizens should not carry the financial burden of what it terms a "migratory invasion," insisting that Morocco must pay for the consequences that "its act of aggression has caused Spain."

🇪🇸🔴 JUST IN: A Spanish woman says she has only her dog to protect her on the streets of Ceuta after a mass migrant invasion.

"She is the only one who protects me! Because there are no military, no police on the street. We are terrified!"

"I feel fear in my own city! In my… pic.twitter.com/aXIMsKOUe0

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 10, 2026

In its congressional filings, Vox demanded that the central government "conduct a rigorous audit of all expenses arising from the crisis and subsequently demand your refund from Morocco."

The proposed audit would cover all extraordinary expenditures, including security deployments by the Armed Forces, National Police, and Civil Guard; emergency rescue operations; direct healthcare and pharmaceutical costs; temporary housing; and infrastructure damage.

Echoing warnings from the Official College of Physicians of Ceuta, which characterized the situation as a "healthcare catastrophe," Vox pointed to documented cases of tuberculosis as evidence that recent events "put the public health of Ceuta residents at risk."

🇪🇸🔴 A young Spanish woman is fleeing Ceuta because she no longer feels safe.

"I don't want to feel anxious every time I step outside... It seems awful to me that all this is allowed to happen and nobody can close the border or do anything."

However, she also claims that the… pic.twitter.com/o6KVfhR7p8

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 10, 2026

To resolve the staffing shortages hindering the medical response, Vox called for the immediate application of incentives for health personnel positions in Ceuta and Melilla that are notoriously difficult to cover. Above all, the party insists on diplomatic and economic pressure to ensure Rabat reimburses all accrued costs, "preventing the economic consequences of a massive and illegal entry from falling on Spanish taxpayers."

Meanwhile, local residents of Ceuta have taken measures into their own hands, hosting a massive rally on Aug. 9. Under the slogan "Enough is enough. Ceuta will not give in," protesters organized by religious communities and neighborhood associations brought together thousands of people to demand action against the mass arrival of migrants on July 30. The organizers put the turnout at over 10,000 people.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 06:35

Iran's Army Chief Offers $30K Reward For Kill Or Capture Of American Troops

In the face for more White House threats against Iran, including Scott Bessent's latest unprecedented 'economic isolation' plan for the Islamic Republic, it remains clear that the Iranians aren't backing down.

Instead, they are issuing some heightened threats and bluster of their own. The country's military in a surprise move announced Sunday that it was offering a bounty equivalent to $30,000 for killing or capturing US soldiers.

Iranian Army commander Major General Amir Hatami, via IRNA

What's more, and perhaps even more provocative, is that the reward will double if the kill or capture of American troops is carried out by a woman.

"Anyone who kills or captures and hands over an invading American military personnel will receive a reward equivalent to $30,000 or 5 billion tomans from the Islamic Republic of Iran's Army," Army chief Amir Hatami announced.

"Courageous Iranian women who carry out such an action will receive double the reward," he added.

Hatami described the plan was the result of popular demand, citing a supposed "large number of requests" to participate, according to the IRNA state news agency. No additional details were given on whether the alarming new bounty program has a timeline or limit attached to it.

But Hatami did say, in a bizarre and very dark incentive, that whatever weapon is used to kill an American will later be held in a museum for the public to admire.

"Given the large volume of requests to participate in the financial jihad, a plan was prepared according to which, for every person who kills or captures and hands over an American aggressor force, the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, with the support of the loved ones participating in the financial jihad and under its own guarantee, will receive a gift equivalent to $30,000 or 5 billion Tomans. Zealous Iranian women who succeed in this action will also receive double the reward," Hatami stated.

"The weapon of any person who succeeds in killing an American aggressor will be purchased at double the price and will receive a new weapon. The individual's weapon will also be kept in a planned museum," he added.

The Iranian army chief also reiterated calls for US forces to finally leave the Middle East altogether, saying "they no longer have permission to enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman or the Strait of Hormuz".

The Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army: With public participation, any Iranian force that captures or kills a American aggressor will receive a $30,000 reward from the Iranian people.

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) August 16, 2026

Throughout the conflict, Iran has frequently targeted locations in Gulf states where American forces are believed to be stationed. In some instances, Iranian officials have said they've even targeted hotels or other off-base locations where US troops are being housed.

Since President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury nearly six months ago, 18 US servicemembers have died according to official Pentagon figures, along with over 600 wounded or injured.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 05:45

Fauci In Hiding As ABC Censorship Bombshell Explodes

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Dr. Anthony Fauci just refused a private transcribed interview with Sen. Ron Johnson's subcommittee. The same week, a former ABC News correspondent revealed that the network gutted a 2021 Wuhan lab leak investigation after the script was sent to Fauci for review.

The pattern is unmistakable. Stonewall. Censor. Invoke privilege. Repeat.

On Friday, Fauci's attorney notified Sen. Ron Johnson that the former NIAID director would not appear for a closed-door, transcribed interview as part of the ongoing investigation into the failed COVID response.

? WTF?! Dr. Fauci has just REFUSED to show up for a private transcribed interview with Sen. Ron Johnson as part of his investigation

Subpoena and CONTEMPT, ASAP!

Haul the traitor in and charge him if he doesn't comply.

JOHNSON: "Apparently, he has a lot to hide. Since Fauci... pic.twitter.com/FLxU7wEQOM

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 15, 2026

Johnson laid it out plainly:

"Dr. Fauci's attorney has just notified us that Fauci refuses to appear for a private transcribed interview. The American people deserve answers to legitimate questions regarding our miserably failed response to COVID-19. Some of those questions can only be answered by Dr. Fauci. He arrogantly once stated that he was 'very happy to testify before any congressional oversight committee. I have nothing to hide.' Apparently, he has a lot to hide. Since Fauci refuses to talk about his role and decisions related to COVID-19, my Subcommittee will continue to obtain his records and request to speak with key individuals that he worked with. We will explore our legal options before deciding our next steps."

This comes days after the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee voted along party lines to hold Fauci in contempt for his July 29 performance, where he invoked the Fifth Amendment roughly 112 times.

Fauci's lawyer responded to Johnson's request by claiming any effort to compel his appearance would "impermissibly harass or degrade Dr. Fauci for political purposes."

The AP reported the decline, noting it followed the partisan contempt vote and the earlier hearing in which Fauci repeatedly declined to answer questions about pandemic decisions, origins, and funding.

The contempt referral is already heading toward the Justice Department. Sen. Rand Paul has argued the Biden preemptive pardon removed any legitimate basis for the Fifth Amendment claims, leaving Fauci with no shield against answering.

While Fauci ducks the Senate, a separate bombshell landed from inside the media machine that once amplified him.

Former ABC News senior national correspondent Terry Moran, speaking on The Fifth Column podcast, described what happened to his early 2021 Nightline investigation into the COVID lab-leak theory.

Moran said the piece examined evidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had received Chinese military funding - something the lab's "Bat Lady" Shi Zhengli had denied. He and his team laid out the arguments.

Then the review hit.

"The day it was supposed to air, it gets 'reviewed.' It comes back to me...I was told: FAUCI," Moran stated.

He added that he was "absolutely livid," cursing in the booth as the final product arrived "incomprehensible," loaded with caveats and legalized language that stripped the original work of meaning.

"I've never watched that story [again] and I never want to. Because it wasn't mine, and most importantly, because it was incomprehensible."

He was told the script had gone to lawyers, standards - and Fauci.

? BOMBSHELL: It was just exposed that ABC CENSORED the COVID Wuhan lab leak report in 2021 because Dr. Fauci told them not to publish it

Terry Moran: "The day it was supposed to air, it gets 'reviewed.' It comes back to me...I was told: FAUCI."

ABC is COMPLICIT, and Fauci... pic.twitter.com/ZhO8eOuLcm

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 15, 2026

This was not a conservative activist speaking. Moran is a longtime network journalist. His account directly undercuts years of media insistence that questions about the lab were fringe conspiracy theories while Fauci and allies worked to shut them down.

These latest refusals and revelations sit atop a mountain of prior evidence already documented.

Secret texts recovered from Fauci's government iPhone showed him privately warning in January 2021 that the second COVID vaccine dose "theoretically could be associated with miscarriage in the 1st trimester" because of cytokine storms and fever. Publicly, he and other officials pushed the shots for pregnant women with no such caveats.

Emails previously released by Sen. Rand Paul showed Fauci instructing then-NIH Director Francis Collins to "read it, then destroy it" - language Paul has called a violation of federal records law.

At the July 29 hearing itself, Fauci offered an opening statement accusing Paul of an "unhinged obsession," then refused nearly every substantive question.

CNN legal analysts noted that the 112 Fifth Amendment pleas likely made his position worse, given the pardon removed criminal jeopardy and left him exposed to contempt.

The American people watched schools shuttered, businesses destroyed, and dissent crushed while the same officials privately fretted about risks they would not acknowledge publicly.

Now the central figure in that response continues to refuse basic questions under oath or in transcribed interviews, and a network reporter has confirmed that even internal journalistic work was routed through him for approval.

Johnson's subcommittee says it will keep pursuing records and other witnesses. The contempt referral sits with the Justice Department. The lab-leak story that was sanitized in 2021 is no longer radioactive. Accountability is no longer optional.

Fauci had years of unmatched power and media deference. That time is over.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 05:30

British Medical Journal Retracts Paper Linking COVID Shots To Millions Of Excess Deaths

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A peer-reviewed study documenting millions of excess deaths across the West after the rollout of COVID measures and shots has been yanked by the British Medical Journal - not for bad data, but for the crime of asking inconvenient questions.

The BMJ Public Health journal has formally retracted a 2024 paper that tracked more than three million excess deaths in 47 Western countries between 2020 and 2022.

The study, which used official "Our World in Data" figures, noted that excess mortality remained stubbornly high even after containment measures and mass vaccination. Its authors called for proper investigation into the causes.

The rot in academia is so deephttps://t.co/pIDYLZMWHP

— Dan Salt (@Danjsalt) August 16, 2026

The retraction notice cited "misinformation in the discussion regarding the possible causes of excess mortality" and claimed the limited original work by the authors was not sufficiently described.

An institutional probe by the Princess Máxima Center, where three of the four authors worked, found no fabrication, falsification, or malicious intent. It still complained the paper gave "disproportionate attention" to the possibility that containment measures and vaccination might have contributed.

?Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths https://t.co/hE6wY746hg

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 4, 2024

Lead author Dr Saskia Mostert has described the reaction that followed publication as "blind and irrational fury." She later resigned from the center and testified before a U.S. Senate subcommittee about the professional cost of raising the data.

Three independent Dutch experts have now written to the BMJ editorial board calling the decision "disproportional." They warned it "raises serious questions about the extent to which political considerations played a part in your decision" and "sets a terrible precedent in these times of increasing political pressure on scientists."

Interesting article in the Daily Telegraph by @sarahknapton about the @bmj_latest choice to retract a paper on Covid-19 and excess mortality, and our criticism of this decision. Rare example of balanced reporting on this topic.https://t.co/bPYawWZQ8q

– https://t.co/FGI3MLZaix https://t.co/boExoS3gxG

— Jona Walk (@JonaWalk) August 15, 2026

Professor Ronald Meester of Vrije University Amsterdam put it bluntly: there is "no scientific reason to retract." "Retraction is bizarre in this case, there is nothing actually wrong with the paper. Hence the real reason must be political. Very sad, really, for science. I do not see how we can take science seriously anymore when editors are willing to make decisions for these kinds of reasons."

The paper never claimed vaccines were the sole cause. It simply observed that excess deaths persisted "despite the implementation of containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines" and urged governments to investigate thoroughly. That was enough to trigger years of institutional pushback, an expression of concern, and finally full retraction more than two years later.

This pattern of shutting down scrutiny is not isolated. Just days earlier, reports emerged of eight babies born with the same rare, life-threatening congenital diaphragmatic hernia in a single hospital's neonatal ICU after maternal COVID shots - odds calculated at one in ten trillion.

Obstetrician Dr James Thorp has documented sharp rises in fetal malformations, placental abnormalities, thrombotic events, and neonatal intensive care admissions following the shots.

Private texts from Anthony Fauci have already revealed he acknowledged the second dose "theoretically could be associated with miscarriage in the 1st trimester" even while public messaging insisted otherwise.

Pfizer's own history includes a 2013 DARPA contract under the ADEPT program to develop antibody platforms against emerging pathogens - the same technological ecosystem that later delivered the mRNA shots.

Independent microscopy of Pfizer vials has repeatedly shown self-assembling, microchip-like, and parasite-like nanotech structures that form elaborate hierarchies under observation.

Meanwhile, new analysis shows the majority of published SARS-CoV-2 genomes were riddled with systematic computer reconstruction errors that fabricated the virus's evolutionary history and transmission patterns.

Taken together, the picture is one of institutional reflex: any research that documents ongoing excess mortality, birth defects, private admissions of risk, military-adjacent contracts, anomalous vaccine contents, or foundational data errors is met with retraction, investigation, or professional exile.

The BMJ's move, coming after the paper had already survived nine months of peer review and been accepted for publication, underscores how quickly "scientific consensus" becomes a political enforcement mechanism when the official narrative is challenged.

Science that cannot tolerate questions about three million excess deaths is no longer science. It is public-relations management with a peer-review stamp.

The real damage is not to one paper. It is to the public's ability to demand answers when the bodies keep piling up.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 05:00

U.S. Drafts Ultimatum for Allies Joining China's AI Bloc

The United States is preparing to tell 35 countries they cannot belong to both the American and Chinese artificial intelligence coalitions, and that joining Beijing's framework will cost them their place in Washington's, according to an undated State Department draft letter reviewed by Reuters and a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The letter is addressed to the signatories of an "AI Opportunity Statement" the United States circulated in June, a group that includes members of Pax Silica, the non-binding framework Washington launched last year to secure supply chains for critical minerals, semiconductors and AI models, Reuters reported.

"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing. Signature of the Pax Silica Declaration is not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment."

The letter urges signatories to choose deliberately and does not name China. The U.S. official said the document was drafted to make clear that countries "can't have it both ways," speaking on condition of anonymity because internal discussions are continuing.

The letter has not been sent. Reuters reported it could not determine when the State Department intends to deliver it, or whether the wording will be revised first, and said the draft carried no date. The department declined to comment on what it called "purportedly leaked internal documents."

Kazakhstan was likely the trigger - as the only country known to have joined both frameworks. Reuters described it as a potentially important source of the critical minerals the American strategy is built to secure.

Xi Jinping launched the rival World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization in July, promoting Chinese open-weight models - systems whose weights can be downloaded, modified and run on local hardware - as a challenge to U.S. influence over the sector.

China's embassy in Washington said Beijing opposes politicizing trade and technology, and that such moves "will only stifle global AI advances and serve no one's interests." The Kazakh embassy did not respond to a request for comment.

Roughly two dozen countries have joined Pax Silica, among them Japan, Australia and South Korea. The framework pushes signatories toward joint projects and coordinated export controls and away from depending on adversaries for AI inputs. Membership is non-binding.

Chinese open-weight models have closed much of the gap with the proprietary systems built by U.S. firms including OpenAI and Anthropic, a shift that has given Beijing's coalition more to offer than it had a year ago.

China has used the renewed tariff fight to demonstrate the leverage of its dominance in critical mineral processing, and Washington has moved to secure alternative domestic and allied supplies.

Pax Silica has announced accessions individually and has never published a full roster. The identities of most of the 35 countries being asked to choose are not publicly known.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 04:15

Qatar Denies Holding Iranian Pilots As Tehran Demands Answers Over Missing Airmen

Via The Cradle

Qatar has denied that it is holding three Iranian pilots who Iran says were captured alive after their fighter jets crashed during the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.

On Saturday, Mohammad Bagherzadeh, head of the Missing Persons Search Committee of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff, stated that “Three Iranian pilots were captured alive by Qatari forces after the Su-24 fighter jets crashed during the March attacks.” He identified the captured pilots as Javad Salehi, Abdolmajid Dashtian, and Omran Behraveshian.

via Associated Press

Iran is urging the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to investigate the condition of the pilots. In a statement to the ICRC, Bagherzadeh said that the pilots "have been held by Qatari forces for six months" and have not been allowed to contact their families.

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari denied the claims, saying Qatar is not holding any Iranian pilots.

"We categorically deny the claims circulating regarding the detention of Iranian pilots," Ansari said in a statement posted on X. Iranian officials were making "misleading statements" at a sensitive moment for regional diplomacy, he added.

Doha acknowledged shooting down two Iranian Su-24 fighter planes in March as they attacked the Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in West Asia and home to US Central Command (CENTCOM) personnel.

Qatar said its search and rescue teams located the body of one Iranian pilot, Majid Kazemi, following the incident and had coordinated with Iranian authorities to return the body, in accordance with international humanitarian law.

Qatar added that it had invited Iranian officials to visit the country to obtain details of the search-and-rescue operation, while claiming Iran had not yet responded to the invitation.

Amid the dispute, Qatar says it remains actively engaged as a mediator between the US and Iran and is pushing for a negotiated settlement to the war.

Negotiations are at a standstill, with Iran insisting the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US agrees to its terms. Meanwhile, the US Navy is continuing its blockade on Iranian ports.

"After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States," Trump hyperbolically claimed on Friday. "Essentially, that's what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to."

Iran urges the International Red Cross to intervene and secure the release of three Iranian pilots who have been held captive by Qatari forces for the past six months after air defenses struck their Su-24 jets during a retaliatory mission.

Follow: https://t.co/gqNNnUKfG0 pic.twitter.com/K5CmPCGLiU

— Highlights (@highlightsnews1) August 15, 2026

Tehran rejected the remarks on Saturday. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that the strategic waterway "cannot be seized with a tweet, nor with an aircraft carrier." He warned that Iran would continue to enforce its closure of Hormuz until Washington accepts “the reality of defeat.”

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and gas exports normally travel, in response to the unprovoked US-Israeli attack on the country in February.

Iran's closure of the strait caused a global energy supply shock that drove up gas prices, exacerbated inflation, and raised alarms about oil reserves across the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 03:30

Israel Threatens Return Of Lebanon War After Unleashing Deadliest Airstrikes Since Ceasefire

Despite a June ceasefire technically being in effect, new weekend Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon mark the deadliest escalation since fighting largely came to a halt earlier this year.

The Saturday attack saw eleven Lebanese killed - among them three children - and 19 injured after Israeli warplanes bombed several areas. It's by far the biggest mass casualty event since the ceasefire took effect, also in terms of extent of destruction.

Flattened neighborhood in the southern Lebanese village of Deir al-Zahrani on August 15, via AFP

"Israeli warplanes bombed a home on the outskirts of the village of Ansar, killing seven people and flattening the building early on Saturday morning, The Guardian reported. "Rescue services were working at the site to try to find survivors and locate bodies."

"Another airstrike hours later on a home in the town of Deir al-Zahrani killed two, wounded nine and covered the streets in rubble and smoke," the report continued to detail. "An Israeli drone also targeted a motorcycle in the nearby city of Nabatieh, but it was unclear if the driver was killed."

Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) wrote of the fresh escalation wrote, "The Israeli enemy committed a massacre in the southern town of Ansar at dawn today, resulting in seven martyrs and three wounded."

Houses and structures across various villages were reported flattened. Israel may have been acting related to reported Hezbollah attacks on IDF troops early Saturday in which which three soldiers were wounded. It was said to be the result of an explosive drone sent from Lebanon.

Israel is threatening to ramp up its operations in Lebanon once again, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying Sunday morning post on X: "No score on any front will remain unsettled." He added: "We will forcefully defend our soldiers and citizens."

According to more from Israel's side of the narrative:

The Israeli military spokesperson, Ella Waweya, said Israel had attacked “Hezbollah infrastructure” in the Ansar and Nabatieh area in response to the group’s fighters attacking soldiers in the Ali Taher area.

...On Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces said it had killed a senior Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in the southern Lebanon town of Deir al-Zahrani the previous day. It said the Saturday morning strike on Ali Muhammad Fakhr al-Din came in response to a Hezbollah explosive drone attack in the predawn hours Saturday that seriously wounded three soldiers.

Lebanese media reported that the Deir al-Zahrani strike on Saturday morning killed two people.

Aftermath of Israeli attack on the southern Lebanese town of Deir al-Zahrani:

VIDEO | The scene of the Israeli attack on the southern Lebanese town of Deir al-Zahrani. https://t.co/Lf1qEb5IEK pic.twitter.com/duSLjW23d2

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) August 15, 2026

And additionally there was a rare Saturday statement (on the Jewish Sabbath) from Prime Minister Netanyahu's office: it said "Hezbollah violated the ceasefire in Lebanon by attacking our soldiers in the security zone, which protects Israeli communities just across the border."

"The IDF responded by striking the Hezbollah terror headquarters which ordered the attack," the PM's office said. "Only later did the IDF learn that Hezbollah deliberately put civilians in that military compound," the statement added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 02:45

English Villages In Fear Over 1,200 Male Migrants Moved Next To Schools

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

England's most peaceful villages are once again being turned into the front line of the migrant crisis.

Up to 1,200 single adult male asylum seekers are earmarked for former military sites sitting within a mile of primary schools, nurseries and children's play areas, in direct tension with the Home Office's own recent guidance against housing near sensitive locations.

The plan, revived and pressed forward under the current government, would drop large numbers of young men into high-trust, low-density rural communities that could not be more culturally distant from the backgrounds of many arrivals. The effect is to create maximum demographic shock and local fury in places least equipped to absorb it.

Villagers up in arms as up to 1,200 male asylum seekers to be placed within a MILE of primary schoolhttps://t.co/PP4hXYWJyz

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 15, 2026

Villagers across North Yorkshire, Suffolk and Oxfordshire are now up in arms as the Home Office continues with three former military bases. RAF Linton-on-Ouse near York is set for as many as 1,200 male asylum seekers. The village itself has only around 600 residents. The result would be a ratio of six migrant men to every local woman. The site sits right in the heart of the community, adjacent to the primary school, a nursery and a children's play area.

North Yorkshire councillor Malcolm Taylor put it plainly: "It's quite an attractive site, it's not one of your austere former military sites and it's right in the heart of the village. So as a consequence, it's right adjacent to the school, the play park. That's what has really ramped up the concerns of the community."

This is the same Linton-on-Ouse that previously defeated similar plans in 2022. The numbers and the location have not become any more suitable. The base is isolated, with limited buses, strained water, sewage and electricity capacity, and no real village infrastructure to support a sudden influx of that scale.

Villages are up in arms as Labour pushes ahead with plans to dump up to 1,200 male asylum seekers on former military sites including within a mile of primary schools.

RAF Linton-on-Ouse in North Yorkshire, RAF Barnham in Suffolk and a site near Piddington in Oxfordshire are in... pic.twitter.com/uZUe9TCW0i

— NRAW (@unownz2pd) August 15, 2026

In west Suffolk, RAF Barnham near Thetford faces proposals for up to 1,250 asylum seekers. Barnham School sits close enough that parents are already discussing withdrawing children, a move that could threaten the school's future. Parish council chairman John Bauer has highlighted the risk.

A third site near the tiny Oxfordshire village of Piddington, beside the former MoD depot at Bicester, sits next to a children's play area. That community of roughly 350-400 people has already staged a symbolic referendum in which 96 per cent voted to leave the UK rather than accept up to 1,250 single adult male asylum seekers.

Children wrote pleading letters. Residents described being driven into a corner with no consultation and no serious infrastructure assessment.

Quiet, traditional villages with minimal services and high social trust are repeatedly selected for the densest concentrations of single young men who arrived illegally. These are places where residents still walk at night without fear and where children play freely. They are precisely the environments most alien to the cultural norms of many of the men being housed there.

This picture a thousand words ?? pic.twitter.com/jzqOs3s5pg

— Hughstar (@HughCurry) August 14, 2026

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has framed the policy as a matter of fairness. "We cannot have a situation where it's only the poorest communities in the country that receive all of the dispersal of refugees and asylum seekers. I do believe all parts of the country need to work, to play their part."

Borders minister Anna Turley has insisted the men "are not going to be in the village" and that "everything they need will be on that site." Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said no final decision has been taken and that factors including schools "are taken into account."

Yet the placements continue to target the same type of community. In the Welsh seaside village of Gronant, population around 1,600, 13 of 15 new-build homes on the site of a former village hall were allocated to asylum seekers without local warning.

Residents only discovered the plan after blacked-out minibuses arrived at night and bunk beds were delivered. One local called it "pure betrayal." Another said "nobody was told about the arrivals."

The same dynamic has played out elsewhere: sudden concentrations of single men near schools and play areas, limited local policing, inadequate utilities, and top-down decisions that bypass ordinary planning scrutiny.

For the Bicester and Barnham sites the government is using an urgent national-interest route that sends applications straight to the Housing Secretary, sidestepping local authorities.

Reform's Zia Yusuf captured the raw numbers: "Andy Burnham is about to dump 1200 unvetted adult male illegal migrants on a tiny village, resulting in locals putting up with a ratio of SIX MEN TO EVERY WOMAN... Burnham is directly endangering British women and girls."

The consistent choice of the most tranquil, most English villages for the largest groups of single male arrivals produces the maximum cultural collision. These communities did not ask for the crisis, did not vote for open borders, and possess none of the infrastructure or social capital to absorb such a rapid demographic change without friction.

Placing the men there guarantees uproar. It is difficult to see the repeated selection of these locations as accidental.

Local MPs across parties have called the sites inappropriate. Residents are organising. The Home Office continues to insist the moves reduce hotel costs and spread the burden more fairly. What it actually spreads is the sense that ordinary British villages exist primarily as overflow capacity for a system that still fails to stop the boats or remove those with no right to remain.

The villages are not the problem. The policy that treats their way of life as disposable is.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/17/2026 - 02:00

Fog Of War: A World Searching For An Exit

Authored by Armstrong Williams via The Epoch Times,

There are moments when the world seems to be moving toward peace and war simultaneously.

This is one of them.

President Donald Trump continues to express hope that the conflict with Iran can be brought to an end. Iran and Oman say negotiations over shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz are progressing.

That is encouraging, but the moment remains fragile.

Iran has attached significant conditions to reopening the strait, including compensation for wartime damage and changes in American policy. So diplomats are discussing stabilizing one of the world’s most important waterways while Tehran continues making demands Washington may find impossible to accept.

That is the fog of war: hope in one headline, escalation in the next.

The contradiction extends to Yemen. Even as diplomacy continues, Iran-aligned Houthi forces remain capable of destabilizing the region, including threatening Saudi interests and shipping routes.

One spark can touch several alliances.

That is why progress must be measured by actions, not announcements. Diplomats negotiate while generals prepare contingencies. Political leaders speak of peace while military planners prepare for negotiations to fail.

America must do the same.

But Washington can no longer ignore another reality: Modern warfare consumes sophisticated weapons at astonishing speed.

Recent reporting has raised serious questions about American inventories of Patriot and THAAD missile-defense interceptors, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and other precision weapons after months of conflict.

The United States remains the most powerful military nation on Earth. But even the strongest military cannot consume advanced weapons indefinitely without confronting production times, supply chains, industrial capacity, and cost.

That is not an argument for weakness. It is an argument for strategic discipline.

Strength means possessing the ability to wage war while understanding which wars are necessary, what objectives justify them, and when diplomacy better serves the national interest.

Europe faces a different danger.

Lithuania and other countries along NATO’s eastern flank increasingly worry that Russia could test the alliance through something deliberately ambiguous such as a drone incident, cyberattack, infrastructure sabotage, false-flag operation, or limited provocation.

The objective might not be territorial conquest.

It might simply be to ask one dangerous question: Will NATO really defend every inch of NATO?

The greatest danger is miscalculation. History reminds us that wars are not always deliberately chosen. Sometimes nations stumble into them because each side assumes the other will retreat.

Then there is migration.

Recent events in Ceuta, Spain’s small territory in North Africa, demonstrate how quickly economic desperation, political instability, and misinformation can overwhelm borders.

Not every national security crisis begins with missiles.

Europe has every right and responsibility to control its borders. But border security and human dignity cannot become opposing principles. A civilized society must be capable of defending both.

Another transformation receives too little attention: the democratization of warfare.

Ukraine demonstrated how inexpensive drones can destroy equipment worth millions of dollars, conduct surveillance, and fundamentally alter battlefield tactics.

Now those technologies are spreading.

Colombian authorities have confronted armed groups using or experimenting with weaponized civilian drones. The lesson should concern every government: Technology perfected on one battlefield does not remain there. It migrates.

Today’s battlefield innovation can become tomorrow’s terrorist, cartel, or homeland security threat.

Yet amid this instability, Venezuela reminds us that political change does not always require warfare.

Opposition leaders continue demanding restored democratic institutions, political freedoms, and credible elections. Dialogue matters, but dialogue without genuine political competition is insufficient.

Eventually democracy comes down to something remarkably simple: Let the people choose.

What connects Iran, Yemen, Russia, Europe, Colombia, and Venezuela is neither geography nor ideology. It is uncertainty.

We are living through a period in which the international order is being tested from multiple directions. Alliances are under pressure. Military inventories are being strained. Drones are transforming warfare. Migration challenges borders. Governments struggle with legitimacy while regional conflicts threaten to widen.

And yet diplomacy continues. That matters.

Oman is still mediating. Washington is still searching for an exit from conflict. Governments capable of exchanging missiles remain capable of exchanging messages.

We should never confuse optimism with naivete. A ceasefire is not peace. Negotiations are not reconciliation. Progress announced today does not guarantee tranquility tomorrow.

But cynicism cannot become foreign policy either. Peace almost always begins while distrust still exists.

The question is whether leaders are negotiating because they genuinely seek an end to conflict or because they need time to prepare for its next phase.

That is why I remain hopeful but clear-eyed.

Political leaders make the announcements. Ordinary people live with the consequences.

Families bury the dead. Soldiers carry the wounds. Refugees leave their homes. Businesses absorb the costs. Parents wonder whether their children will inherit another war.

Through this fog, our objectives must remain clear: Strength without recklessness. Diplomacy without naivete. Deterrence without endless warfare. Hope without illusion.

Because peace is not what governments announce today. Peace is what survives tomorrow.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/16/2026 - 23:20

"I've Never Heard Anything Like It": Was America's Top Secret Stealth Bomber Just Spotted Over Kansas?

A video of a mysterious aircraft thundering over a U.S. military installation has set off a wave of speculation online, and the leading theories all point to aircraft the Pentagon would rather nobody photographed.

The aircraft was captured flying over McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita, Kansas. It is believed to be the B-21 Raider, a nuclear-capable stealth bomber carrying a unit price tag of roughly $700 million.

That identification is unconfirmed. OutKick's David Hookstead, who first published the footage, wrote that a reflection off what appears to be a cockpit window around the seven-second mark is the strongest evidence for the B-21 - but allowed it could also be the RQ-170 Sentinel or the RQ-180, a classified surveillance drone whose existence the government has never acknowledged. Other observers have argued the shape is a better match for the older B-2 Spirit.

McConnell is a tanker base, home to the KC-46 Pegasus, and sits well outside the B-21's Edwards Air Force Base test corridor - which is part of why the sighting drew attention, and part of why some doubt the identification.

Mysterious aircraft was spotted flying over McConnell Air Force Base in Kansas, fueling speculation that it may have been a rare glimpse of America's costly, top-secret B-21 Raider stealth bomber - reports

(📹 justind8036) pic.twitter.com/ZGTBDOAddI

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 12, 2026

Witnesses on the ground said they felt the aircraft before they ever saw it.

"I never saw it, but I could hear it. It was shaking the ground! I've never heard anything like it," one X user wrote.

Northrop Grumman landed the contract to build the bomber in 2015 and the U.S. Air Force expects the Raider to enter operational service in the coming years. The first aircraft is slated to arrive at Ellsworth Air Force Base in 2027.

The Pentagon has signaled it wants at least 100 of the bombers, flying alongside a fleet of 76 modernized B-52 Stratofortresses. However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made clear the Pentagon may need far more firepower than that.

"We have to invest in more capabilities to include the B-21, which is ahead of schedule," Hegseth told the Senate Armed Services Committee in April. "We believe we will require a lot more - over 100 - in the future."

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/16/2026 - 22:45

Dallas Airport Shelves Muslim Washing Facilities After Texas Governor Threatens Airport Funding

Authored by Jeremy Lott via The Epoch Times,

The Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport was mulling the installation of special washing rooms to facilitate prayers by its Muslim passengers. A DFW spokesman told The Epoch Times Saturday that the airport has shelved those plans after objections by the governor of Texas.

The airport was “in the process of evaluating an internal proposal to add a set of ablution washing stations on the pre-security side of Terminal D” for international passengers, the spokesperson wrote in a statement.

Terminal D is one of five terminals at DFW. The terminal has more than 30 gates, out of what the airport lists as over 160 total gates. It also has a connected hotel, the Grand Hyatt.

With every proposed project in the whole airport, DFW management considers several factors, including “operational benefits, customer service impacts, operational risks and costs,” before granting approval, the spokesperson said.

The prayer washing project had not yet reached the official evaluation point when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott registered his opposition to such facilities.

“Government-owned airports cannot favor one religion over all others,” Abbott wrote on his X account Friday, and thus the airport’s “plans to install Islamic wudu washing facilities” were “illegal.”

The governor announced that he had taken action so his state would “not allow illegal religious discrimination at taxpayer-funded facilities.” He directed a review of all state grants to both DFW and an airport in Houston “for possible revocation” and also referred the issue to the Department of Transportation for its own investigation.

Abbott also included links to letters that he had sent to Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy and DFW’s CEO Christopher McLaughlin. He copied U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche on the Duffy letter, and the mayors of Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston on his letter to the DFW.

DFW then “accelerated its review due to elevated public interest this week,” the spokesperson said. It “determined not to proceed” as the project seemed unlikely to “deliver the originally anticipated operational benefits.”

Reached for comment, the governor’s press office pointed The Epoch Times to a follow-up post by Abbott in which he acknowledged the change of plans by DFW and said, “It was clearly illegal.”

Houston Facility

While the issue appears to be closed at DFW, the George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston has had a wudu washing facility in place for close to two years now.

In late October 2024, the Houston branch of the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR-Houston) held an official recognition ceremony to celebrate the Houston airport as “one of the first airports in the U.S. to offer such amenities,” and for “setting a new standard for inclusivity and traveler comfort.”

CAIR-Houston said at the time that wudu is “an Islamic ritual of purification.”

The wudu room in Houston includes “benches, coat racks, and space for luggage” and is “fully ADA-accessible,” it said.

The Texas governor is pressing the case that the Houston facility is also illegal. The Epoch Times contacted IAH for comment but received only an automated reply.

In majority Muslim nations, public facilities such as airports often have rooms or at least stations to assist in this cleaning, as observant Muslims pray at five distinct times during most days.

These are less common in nations without Muslim majorities, but some Western airports have them. London’s Heathrow Airport has wudu capabilities in its multi-faith prayer rooms. O’Hare International Airport, which services the Chicago metro, has interfaith chapels with wudu functions.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) did not return The Epoch Times’ request for clarification on whether or not it considered a Muslim washing room to be illegal at an American international airport by the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/16/2026 - 22:10