Zero Rss

Ukraine Billionaire Spends $554 Million For World's Most Expensive Apartment In Monte Carlo

It makes sense that a nation which has consistently ranked at the top in all global corruption rankings, produces some of the most extravagant demonstrations of stolen wealth. 

Take billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, among many other assets owner of the Azovstal steel complex in Mariupol which became one of the defining clashes in the Ukraine war, and Ukraine’s richest man, who bought a vast, five-floor luxury apartment in Monaco’s most prestigious new development for an eye-popping €471 million ($554 million), making it the biggest single home transactions in history according to Bloomberg.

The 21-room waterfront property, acquired by the businessman’s holding company, is located in the principality’s Mareterra district. The new area, built on reclaimed land, was inaugurated by Prince Albert II in 2024 and has drawn ultra-rich investors from around the world.

Le Renzo in Mareterra, Monte Carlo

Situated in the flagship “Le Renzo” building, the apartment stretches over about 2,500 square meters (27,000 square feet), not counting balconies and terraces looking out over the Mediterranean Sea. It also has a private swimming pool, jacuzzi and comes with at least eight parking spots.

Details of the sale, which was finalized in 2024, or about two years after Akhmetov's country was deep in a brutal war with thousands of his countrymen dying on the front every day, come from the principality’s property records, as well as a stash of emails and preliminary deeds reviewed by Bloomberg Businessweek from Distributed Denial of Secrets, a nonprofit that preserves hacked and leaked materials believed to be in the public interest.

Akhmetov’s holding company, System Capital Management, or SCM, confirmed it it had made an acquisition in the development, though declined to provide details about the property or price. 

“SCM’s international investment portfolio has included a standalone premium real estate portfolio for over ten years, as has been publicly stated on multiple occasions,” it said in a statement. “Among its assets is the ‘Le Renzo’ project, in which we made an investment on the primary market in 2021.”

Premium real estate; half a billion dollars for an apartment is a different galaxy, especially sine most of the money was likely sourced from US taxpayers. The reported price would make it the biggest known home sale in history, outstripping the recent sale of developer Nick Candy’s Chelsea mansion for more than $350 million or the sale of a New York penthouse apartment to hedge fund manager Ken Griffin for about $240 million.

Perched on a rocky outcrop between France and Italy, Monaco has long been the priciest real-estate market in the world because of its small size and tax haven status. The Mareterra development was built up over a decade on land reclaimed from the sea and includes 114 luxury villas, townhouses and apartments set around gardens, a harbor and public promenade.

Akhmetov’s purchase agreement in the principality came just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war subsequently created upheaval within his business empire including attacks on energy assets in his home country.

Akhmetov was pivotal in arranging a lasting relationship between his employee and close friend Paul Manafort and former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovich, whose US-mediated ouster was the trigger for the eventual war between Ukraine and Russia.

The tycoon has a net worth of more than $7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His fortune is rooted in SCM, Ukraine’s largest industrial conglomerate with investments in metallurgy, mining and energy, in addition to property. 

Akhmetov has also been associated with a string of other ultra high-end property acquisitions in the past, including the 2019 purchase for €200 million of the historic Villa Les Cèdres on the French Riviera. The sprawling estate in the exclusive Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat was once owned by King Leopold II of Belgium.  In 2011, Akhmetov also reportedly bought a penthouse in London’s prestigious One Hyde Park development opposite the Harrods department store in Knightsbridge.

Mareterra properties have sold for prices surpassing the symbolic €100,000 a square meter, according to local property agents, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. One three-bedroom property is currently on the market for about €76 million. There are also rental listings for four and five-room apartments for €150,000 a month.

Official statistics show that the Larvotto district where Mareterra is located has become the principality’s most expensive in terms of estimated selling prices per square meter. The data doesn’t break out prices for properties in the development and these aren’t generally listed on broker websites.

“Monaco remains one of the world’s most exclusive and resilient residential markets,” Savills said in a report published in March, noting that it’s “shaped by structural scarcity and sustained high international demand.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 00:05

Nobel Physicist Predicts 'End-Date' For Modern Civilization

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross has provided a sobering timeline for the potential end of modern civilisation, citing the escalating risks of nuclear war.

The 2004 Nobel laureate estimates that humanity may have roughly 35 years remaining before facing existential catastrophe from nuclear conflict.

In an interview, Gross detailed his assessment based on probability calculations similar to radioactive half-life models. He noted that after the Cold War, estimates put the annual chance of nuclear war at one percent. However, he believes the figure is now closer to two percent.

Chilling warning from Nobel physicist as date is set for humanity's final destruction https://t.co/WKhFHWcIs3

— Daily Mail US (@Daily_MailUS) April 20, 2026

“Even after the Cold War ended, when we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates that there was a one percent chance of nuclear war every year,” Gross said.

He continued, “I feel it’s not a rigorous estimate that the chances are more likely two percent. So that’s a one-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of two percent per year, is about 35 years.”

Gross pointed to deteriorating global conditions as justification for his higher estimate. “Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper,” he stated.

He highlighted ongoing conflicts and nuclear proliferation. There are now nine nuclear powers, complicating arms control significantly. “Even three is infinitely more complicated than two,” Gross observed.

Recent developments include the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, with no major nuclear arms-control agreements signed in the past decade.

Gross also raised concerns about advancing technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence in weapons systems.

“The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart,” he said. “Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon.”

“It’s going to be very hard to resist making AI make decisions because it acts so fast,” Gross warned, noting that AI can sometimes “hallucinate” or produce inaccurate outputs.

He expressed deep concern for humanity’s future beyond scientific progress: “You asked me to think about the future, and I am obsessed the last few years, thinking about that, not the future of ideas and understanding nature, but of the survival of humanity.”

Despite the grim outlook, Gross expressed some optimism, stating of nuclear weapons: “We made them; we can stop them.”

The post quickly drew responses on X reflecting a range of views.

One took a philosophical stance: “There no end date.. people have been guessing.. for a long time.. when it our time it’s our time… an Asteroid can hit Tomorrow and wipe out the planet and we probably wouldn’t be able to process it… a renegade Volcano can explode setting off the next extinction event and we wouldn’t know what to do.. live your life.. it’s all you can do..”

Several users ironcially turned to AI for answers, with one writing: “Tell us the date and time @grok.” and another echoing: “@grok what’s the date and time?”

A different commenter expressed skepticism about the role of global elites: “If his thinks rich billionaires are going to allow nuclear war.. then take away his Nobel prize cause that not happening any time soon.”

Gross, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on asymptotic freedom in quantum chromodynamics, has shifted much of his recent focus to humanity’s long-term survival. His remarks connect the probability model directly to current events, including tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia.

By framing the risk in concrete yearly percentages and an expected timeframe, the physicist aims to translate abstract geopolitical dangers into something more immediate and calculable. Whether the two-percent annual figure holds or shifts with future developments remains to be seen, but the underlying message is clear: the window for preventive action is narrowing.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 23:25

South Korea Curbs Syringe Hoarding As Iran War Cripples Supply

The downstream consequences from the Hormuz closure are popping up in the most unexpected places. 

According to Bloomberg, South Korea’s health regulators are stepping in to curb syringe hoarding as supply chain disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict threaten the availability of essential medical supplies.

While overall syringe production remains steady at about 4.5 million units a day - slightly above 2025 averages - hospitals report dwindling inventories, and online platforms show rising prices and empty virtual shelves, according to the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety.

Starting Monday the ministry will deploy 35 inspection teams, made up of police and medical device officials, to carry out a nationwide probe into intermediaries and other firms suspected of creating artificial shortages to drive up profits.

Syringes are the latest everyday item in South Korea to be hit by spillover from the Iran war, which has disrupted supplies of naphtha, a petroleum derivative used in plastics manufacturing. Products such as syringes and intravenous fluid bags rely on polypropylene and polyethylene, both derived from naphtha. 

Earlier, we discussed how US exports of ethane - which is also a key building block in plastics production - to China have soared, as naphtha supply remains indefinitely blocked as a result of the Hormuz closure. 

"We’ve seen a surge in speculative demand as hospitals and clinics are preemptively ordering extra stock in anticipation of price hikes, which is creating artificial bottlenecks,” said spokesperson Jung Chul-woo of the Korea Medical Devices Association, which represents more than 700 suppliers.

Shortages of Middle Eastern crude have already stoked supply concerns in Asia’s fourth-largest economy, threatening everything from garbage bags to popular instant noodle brands, while also contributing to a broader jet fuel crunch across the region.

After manufacturers raised concerns about potential naphtha shortages, the government called on domestic refiners to prioritize supply allocations for local companies for the next three months, an official at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said.  The ministry’s crackdown comes after a government mandate took effect April 14 banning the hoarding of syringes and needles. Withholding inventory or inflating prices is now punishable by up to three years in prison, or 100 million won ($68,000) in fines.

“Acts of hoarding medical devices essential to public health while exploiting a crisis are unacceptable,” Food and Drug Safety Minister Oh Yu-Kyoung said in a statement. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 23:00

Trump Blinks Again, Unilaterally Extends Iran Ceasefire After Pakistan Talks Fail To Launch Summary

• Trump unilaterally extends ceasefire after Vance calls off trip to Pakistan - says Iranian port blockade to remain in place. Tasnim says Iran's 'final decision' is to not attend talks.

• Trump warns: 'Expect...bombs' & urges Tehran "release women" said to be on death row.

• Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM

• As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.

• Trump on Truth Social early Tuesday: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 30% · No 71%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  * 

TACO Tuesday... Again: Ceasefire Extended in Trump TS Post

Can't make this up... Trump unilaterally extends ceasefire, but says US Navy's blockade of Iran's ports will stay in place, after Islamabad talks collapse. Trump punts again... enjoy TACO Tuesday... we can say at least the bombing doesn't look to resume, yet. To give more formality to it - or make it official, the White House also quickly put out Trump's statement (and in a more presentable font) below. Initial reaction from Tehran:

• IRAN NOT OFFICIALLY COMMENTING ON CEASEFIRE EXTENSION
• IRAN'S POSITION WILL BE ANNOUNCED SUBSEQUENTLY

2nd Round Talks Collapse, Vance Not Traveling

Late afternoon headlines now confirm what was looking more and more inevitable as the hours passed but with no one side boarding planes to head to Islamabad: the Associated Press is reporting that Vice President Vance has called off the whole trip.

This also as Tasnim is reporting Iran's "final decision" to not be in Pakistan Wednesday - the same day the two-week ceasefire formally comes to a close. Pakistan sources are meanwhile reporting that key negotiating figures are absent on the ground, and officials are said to be urging the sides to join a second-round summit.

And per Bloomberg: "Iran, for its part, told the mediators its delegation won't leave Tehran before the blockade is lifted, according to officials familiar with the matter."

Iranian officials have consistently said that they are prepared for Trump to resume the war. A senior official recently told me that if that happens, Iran will suspend all diplomatic channels indefinitely and focus on imposing "significantly greater costs on US interests"

— jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill) April 21, 2026 US Delegation Trip for Talks 'On Hold'

As VP Vance has been seen at the White House, clearly not en route to Pakistan for Iran talks, a hugely significant headline has sent oil up and stocks dumping more:

• VP Vance's Pakistan trip has been put on hold as Iran's leadership remained divided over whether to participate in a new round of peace talks, via Axios
• VANCE TRIP ON HOLD AS IRAN DIDN'T RESPOND TO US POSITIONS: NYT
• VANCE TRIP TO PAKISTAN HAS NOT BEEN CANCLED: NYT

Newsquawk market reaction: Stocks see weakness, while oil and Dollar gain amid NYT reports that VP Vance’s diplomatic trip to Islamabad has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American negotiating positions.

Latest Update on Islamabad Talks: Pakistan remains in continuous contact with the Iranian side regarding confirmation of its delegation. As mediator, Pakistan continues sincere efforts to advance diplomacy and dialogue. With the ceasefire ending at 4:50 AM PST on 22 April, Iran’s… pic.twitter.com/r95ywZttwC

— Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (@MoIB_Official) April 21, 2026

Latest from Iran Foreign Minister:

Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.
Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation.

Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 21, 2026 Iran Last-Minute Major Demand

Talks are in peril as it's unclear whether Vice President JD Vance intends to depart today for Pakistan, though Axios says he will. And now the Iranian side is imposing a new key demand to even get to the negotiating table - the lifting of the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports:

Iran has cast doubt over a second round of peace talks with the U.S. in Islamabad after refusing to publicly commit to attend the talks this week, as the expiration of a ceasefire looms.

Tehran had initially told mediators that it would send a delegation to Pakistan Tuesday for talks but later informed them that the U.S. would have to lift its blockade on Iran ports, according to officials.

Pakistan is urging the U.S. and Iran to extend the two-week cease-fire and continue to work toward a diplomatic solution. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected the lead the U.S. delegation.

President Trump has said he doesn't intend to sign on to any ceasefire extension, and it expires by Wednesday. He has also warned the Iranians should "expect" bombs if no breakthrough can be found.

Trump to Iran: Release These Women

President Trump has suddenly pivoted to making the 'humanitarian' or 'protect the protesters' argument once again. He has just written on Truth Social the following words, while sharing the below image of eight Iranian women allegedly on death row:

To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Whether these women are actually about to be hanged is another, lingering question (there's no legitimate sourcing confirming that a group of eight women are about to be hanged) - but clearly Trump is trying to inject some more leverage on the US side before the second-round Pakistan talks even get started.

He had quickly followed the above with the below message talking about having 'obliterated' Iran's 'nuclear dust' to the point that the Iranians can't get to it:

Trump: Iran Has No Choice, 'Expect' Bombs

President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that "they will end up with a great deal." He added that "Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it," and emphasized that the US is in "a strong negotiating position."

He said the naval blockade "has been successful" and that US forces are "in control of the Strait." Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying "there is not that much time" - but added that "Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal."

He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is "much more powerful than it was a few weeks again" and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is "ready to go militarily" and that the world should "expect" bombing - in the instance there's no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:

• Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China's Xi, says "that's alright".

Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air

Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield:

Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.

What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment.

If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first.

Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: "Iran’s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US." Latest:

Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran's Ghalifab's arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.

At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there's not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.

But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said "lots of bombs" will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn't plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran's nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: "we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield".

Since the start of the U.S. blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports, U.S. forces have directed 28 vessels to turn around or return to port. pic.twitter.com/mZOq3SfxKt

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 21, 2026 Another Vessel Interdiction by US Navy

US forces boarded a sanctioned tanker without resistance in the Indo-Pacific as part of operations targeting vessels linked to Iran, the Pentagon said on X. Initial statements did not indicate a precise location, and clearly it did not occur in the Hormuz Strait. Washington recently announced it is ready to seize 'illicit' Iran-linked vessels anywhere on the high seas. The move follows Sunday's major boarding of an Iranian-flagged vessel, when a US warship opened fire as it attempted to transit the strait, striking and damaging the engine room.

CENTCOM: Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.



Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.⁰⁰As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit… pic.twitter.com/EGwDe3dBI3

— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) April 21, 2026

"As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate," a CENTCOM post said. "International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain."

Iran has been referring to this incident as a second fresh US violation of the ceasefire, amid the tit-for-tat accusations:

🚨The US has Intercepted A Second Iranian Ship In What Looks Like A Final Ceasefire Violation

A ship heading to China, called TIFANI, is allegedly carrying millions in crude oil.

This occurs right as Washington is seeking to bring Tehran to Islamabad to negotiate. pic.twitter.com/tZQEgXF1yf

— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) April 21, 2026

Meanwhile...

Iran Claims Successfully Defied US Blockade

An Iranian oil tanker entered the territorial waters of Iran overnight after transiting the Arabian Sea with support from the country's navy, according to the army, and as reported in NBC. Semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the vessel continued its route despite what it described as repeated warnings and threats from US forces enforcing a Trump-ordered blockade on Iranian ports.

The tanker is now anchored at a southern Iranian port and has remained there for several hours, the report indicated. Tanker traffic remains at a tiny trickle, with 12 presumably US-approved vessels having made it through in the past 24 hours.

A sense of normalcy returns to Iran as countdown to Wednesday expiration of 2-week ceasefire weighs heavy...

🇮🇷 Coffee shops bustling in Tehran as Middle East ceasefire nears end

Iranians gather in coffee shops in northern Tehran, as uncertainty grows over a push to stop the Middle East war from resuming. pic.twitter.com/svvALqngbT

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 21, 2026

There are even reports that Iran is ready to open up domestic air travel once again, but that could soon prove short-lived as President Trump's threats keep coming, and given the unlikelihood that Pakistan talks will in the end succeed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 22:15

From Tank Rides To Overseeing Missile Tests: Kim Jong Un's Teenage Daughter Prepped As Likely Successor

Longtime North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a test launch of missiles equipped with multiple reentry vehicles, a move that drew limited international attention despite its escalation risk.

"The purpose of the test-fire is to verify the characteristics and power of cluster bomb warhead and fragmentation mine warhead applied to the tactical ballistic missile," North Korean state media reported Sunday. "Five tactical ballistic missiles, launched towards the target area around an island about 136 km away, struck the area of 12.5~13 hectares with the very high density, fully displaying their combat might."

Kim's daughter, Kim Ju Ae, attended the launch - the latest in a series of recent public appearances alongside her father - a trend which has only intensified speculation about his succession planning.

Just several weeks ago, his daughter was filmed and photographed enjoying a battle tank ride alongside her father. Per prior reporting in the NY Times:

It seems like a familiar rite of passage: a dad teaching his daughter to drive. Except in this case, the girl is at the helm of a hulking battle tank, her head sticking out from the driver’s hatch, while the father — the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un — reclines on the hull behind her.

The video and photographs of the girl, Kim Ju-ae, who is believed to be around 13, apparently driving the heavily armed vehicle during a military exercise, were published last month by North Korean state media. It was the latest in a series of public appearances that have fueled speculation that she is being groomed to succeed her father.

That theory has gained added credence from South Korea’s spy agency, which now believes Ju-ae has officially been chosen to succeed her father, South Korean lawmakers briefed on the matter said on Monday. They added that the agency’s analysis was based on “credible intelligence” rather than circumstantial context.

In the tank video, Mr. Kim is shown riding on the hull, smiling and occasionally leaning down to speak to his daughter, who is looking straight ahead.

A South Korean lawmaker subsequently saw in the whole scene "an intent to highlight Ju-ae's military exceptionality" and "dilute skepticism of a female heir."

Trump and Kim met three times between 2018 and 2020, but talks collapsed without an agreement - and this was followed by a period marked by rising tensions under Biden.

WATCH: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un rides in new tank with daughter pic.twitter.com/Pq78MSNjKt

— Rapid Report (@RapidReport2025) March 20, 2026

North Korea's freshly conducted the test reportedly utilized fragmentation-style munitions after Iran deployed similar systems against Israel. Missiles carrying cluster or fragmenting warheads can overwhelm and evade advanced air defense systems.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 22:10

US, Philippines Launch Their 'Biggest Ever' Balikatan Drills With Large Japanese Contingent

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US and the Philippines on Monday launched what’s being billed as the "biggest ever" Balikatan Exercise, an annual military drill that, for the first time, includes a significant contingent of Japanese troops as Tokyo increases its military activity in the region, ramping up tensions with China.

The drills are scheduled to take place from April 20 to May 8 and will involve more than 17,000 troops, including about 1,400 Japanese military personnel.

US Army photo

Importantly, exercises will include live-fire drills in the northern Philippines, facing Taiwan, and in Palawan, an island province facing the disputed South China Sea.

The start of the drills comes amid a very fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is due to expire on Wednesday if it’s not extended.

While the US has committed more than 60,000 troops to the Middle East, the Trump administration continues to focus on building alliances in the Asia-Pacific as part of its strategy against China, including a new security deal with Indonesia.

In response to the start of the Balikitan drills, the Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the US activity in the region.

"The world has seen enough damage done by unilateralism and abuse of military might. What the Asia-Pacific needs most is peace and tranquility, and the last thing the region needs is division and confrontation as a result of the introduction of external forces," said spokesman Guo Jiakun.

The location of the same drills last year, via AEI's Critical Threats Project

"No military and security cooperation should be conducted at the expense of mutual understanding and trust as well as peace and stability in the region. Such cooperation should not target any third party or harm the interests of any third party. For countries that tie their own security to others, it is important to bear in mind that this may very well backfire," Guo added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 21:45

Halliburton Sees First Signs Of Life In America's Oil Patch: "We Are In Early Innings"

An emerging theme we are focusing on is the early stage of a major capex upcycle in America's oil patch, with even Goldman now moving in that direction and forecasting a boom that could echo the industry's expansion cycle of the early 2000s.

Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler was the first of the major oil patch players to mention in early April that "Continental is increasing our capital budget, which will increase production."

Now, another giant of the oil patch, Halliburton, a major supplier of the gear, crews, and services that keep drilling and fracking going, reports new signs of life in oilfield activity across North America. 

"While these calls are not for committed crews, they do suggest incremental demand is building in spot markets with smaller operators. This is the leading edge of capacity tightening. While we are in the early innings, in my view the setup for North America is constructive. Premium equipment is already tightening," Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller told investors in the company's first-quarter earnings statement earlier today. 

Halliburton reported strong international performance, especially in Latin America, where revenue jumped 22% year over year, helping to offset disruptions in the Gulf area. The company still beat Bloomberg Consensus expectations on adjusted earnings, though the conflict in the Middle East reduced profit in its drilling and evaluation units by about 2 to 3 cents per share. 

Melius Research analyst James West noted that Halliburton "posted a solid beat across the board" that was "driven by international strength that more than offset continued North America softness." 

Miller's comments about signs of life returning to the oil patch add to remarks made by Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler earlier this month. 

This leaves us asking whether a broader shale response is still to come...

Answering that question is a team of Goldman analysts led by Michele Della Vigna, who now expects "the sector is poised for a major oil capex upcycle, similar to that of the early 2000s."

We must point out that the oil patch has yet to respond to WTI futures topping $110 a barrel, before sliding to $83 a barrel. WTI tradnig around $89 on Tuesday morning. 

Della Vigna outlined, "The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East since February 28 may have accelerated the timing of a structural capex upcycle, which we now expect to start in 2027."

She also laid out a list of companies that clients should be long as this emerging theme begins to revive life in the oil patch. Read the report here.

In short, Halliburton has been a leading oilfield services player in North America for decades, and its commentary may be one of the first real signals that the investment cycle is turning up. After a long stretch of under investment, the trend now appears to be shifting back toward renewed capital spending and reserve expansion.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 21:20

US Treasury Sanctions 14 Targets For Helping Iran Obtain Weapons

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Treasury Department on April 21 announced that it is imposing sanctions on 14 targets “for their involvement in helping the Iranian regime obtain weapons,” in contravention of international sanctions.

“As the regime attempts to reconstitute its production capacity, the United States will continue to deplete Iran’s ballistic missile inventories,” the Treasury wrote in a post on X.

According to a press release from the Treasury, the targets include 14 “individuals, entities, and aircraft” based in Iran, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, “for their involvement in procuring or transporting weapons or weapons components on behalf of the Iranian regime.”

During the military operations in the region, the United States and Israel have sought to deplete Iran’s weapons reserves, particularly targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites.

Amid these operations, the Treasury said, Iran “is seeking to reconstitute its production capacity.”

The Treasury noted that increasingly, the Persian state is relying on one-way, unmanned drones to target U.S. and allied locations in the Middle East, and indicated that the Treasury would continue to work to prevent Iran from obtaining weapons.

“The Iranian regime must be held accountable for its extortion of global energy markets and indiscriminate targeting of civilians with missiles and drones,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

“Under President [Donald] Trump’s leadership, as part of Economic Fury, Treasury will continue to follow the money and target the Iranian regime’s recklessness and those who enable it,” Bessent added.

Currently, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding. On Tuesday, Trump agreed to extend the ceasefire, but tensions with Iran remain high.

“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Simultaneously, Trump said the U.S. military will extend the more-than-week-long naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying that it will, “in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic.

Iran briefly opened the all-important shipping route on April 17 after the initial ceasefire agreement, but again closed the area to commercial shipping the next day, citing the ongoing U.S. blockade of its ports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 20:55

NewMexit: Secession In The Southwest?

Authored by Stephen Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Lea and Roosevelt counties in the US state of New Mexico (NM) in 2026 are seeking to secede and join the state of Texas.

“There was a state representative or two from New Mexico who were expressing frustration with the government in Santa Fe,” Texas State Representative Carl Tepper said.

“They have expressed an interest in being annexed by Texas, . . .”

Their action is referred to as “NewMexit.”

Ludwig von Mises wrote many times that a group of people in a sovereign nation or province should have the freedom to secede from that place to join another like-minded province or nation or become an independent nation.

These two counties are part of a growing US movement where people in counties tire of their state’s policies and taxation that inhibit economic growth, lessen individual freedom, issue cumbersome regulations interfering with operation of a privately-owned business and family decision-making.

Here is a March 2025 Mises Power and Market article on this topic.

“Republican New Mexico lawmakers have floated the idea of allowing counties to secede from the state to either join another state or create a new state in the United States.”

Former New Mexico Republican state Sen. Cliff R. Pirtle of Chaves, Eddy, and Otero counties introduced Senate Joint Resolution 15 in 2021 to amend the state constitution. The resolution died in committee.

According to one source, “On Jan. 26, 2026, New Mexico Republican state Reps. Randall Pettigrew of Lea County and Jimmy Mason of Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties tried to revive the secession path for the state’s counties. The representatives introduced House Joint Resolution 10.”

But “. . .the resolution died as it was ‘postponed indefinitely’ in the state’s legislature, which gaveled out of session in mid-February.”

The US Census estimated 2025 population for Lea County is about 75,000 and the Roosevelt County estimated 2025 population is about 19,000. The estimated NM state population is about 2.1 million so losing both counties is 4.5 percent of the state’s population.

The NM county map above shows Lea and Roosevelt counties’ location on the Texas border.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 20:05

'Eliminating Energy Blockade Top Priority' As Cuba Confirms Direct Talks With US

Cuba confirmed on April 20 that it recently held direct talks with U.S. officials in Havana, marking a rare diplomatic engagement as tensions persist over Washington’s long-standing economic restrictions on the communist nation.

Alejandro Garcia del Toro, deputy director general for U.S. affairs at Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in remarks published on April 20 by Cuban Communist Party newspaper Granma that discussions were underway.

“This is a delicate matter which, as we have already said, we are handling discreetly,” Garcia del Toro said.

He confirmed that “a meeting between Cuban and U.S. delegations recently took place here in Cuba,” adding that U.S. participants included undersecretaries of state, while Cuba’s delegation was led at the deputy minister level.

“During the meeting, neither party set deadlines or made coercive statements, as reported by the US press. All information exchange was conducted with respect and professionalism,” he said.

As Evgenia Filimianova reports for The Epoch Times, Cuba framed the discussions as heavily focused on easing U.S. economic pressure, particularly restrictions affecting energy supplies.

“Eliminating the energy blockade against the country was a matter of top priority for our delegation,” Garcia del Toro said.

He described the policy as “an unjustified punishment for the entire Cuban population” and called it “a form of global blackmail against sovereign states.”

The dispute reflects broader economic strains on the island, where rolling blackouts and fuel shortages have intensified public hardship in recent months.

Cuba’s energy crisis has become a central issue in its relations with Washington, as the government seeks relief from sanctions that limit access to fuel imports. A main supplier, Venezuela, has curtailed oil shipments to Cuba since the United States captured dictator Nicolás Maduro in January.

The talks come as the Trump administration has increased pressure on Cuba, both rhetorically and through policy measures.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during an April 8 briefing that the Cuban government is in a weakened state.

Clarifying Trump’s recent remark that “Cuba is next,” she told reporters that he meant “the Cuban regime is bound to fall.”

“The country is very weak. They’re in a very weak position economically, obviously, and financially,” Leavitt said on April 8.

The administration has framed its approach as economic and diplomatic pressure rather than military action. Speaking on March 27 in Miami, Trump said his strategy of “peace through strength” relies on a “great military” combined with economic leverage and negotiation.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a hardline stance on Cuba’s political system during remarks to reporters on March 27.

“The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent communist,” Rubio said, arguing that Cuba’s system “has to change” for the country to achieve economic development.

He added that Cuba’s economic model is “a nonsensical system,” and said the Cuban people are suffering due to leadership decisions and lack of reform.

U.S.–Cuba relations have been strained for decades, dating back to the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro, which overthrew the U.S.-backed government of Fulgencio Batista.

The situation in Cuba has drawn attention from other global leaders. In a joint statement on April 18, the governments of Mexico, Spain, and Brazil expressed “deep concern regarding the serious humanitarian crisis the Cuban people face” and called for measures to alleviate suffering while respecting international law.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on April 20 that he sees no justification for U.S. intervention in Cuba, stating the country poses no “discernible threat” to others.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 19:40

FBI Officially Investigating Reports Of Deaths, Disappearances Of US Scientists

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The FBI said it is leading federal efforts to investigate potential connections in reports of dead or missing U.S. scientists in recent years, coming days after President Donald Trump expressed alarm.

“The FBI is spearheading the effort to look for connections into the missing and deceased scientists. We are working with the Department of Energy, Department of War, and with our state and local law enforcement partners to find answers,” an FBI spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement on Tuesday.

The spokesperson, who didn’t provide additional comment, was responding to a question about whether the federal law enforcement agency was involved. Last month, Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) called on the bureau to investigate the deaths.

This past week, Trump and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to questions from reporters about roughly 10 scientists who went missing or died in recent years and whether those incidents involved any national security concerns.

Reports of the scientists dying or going missing, Trump told reporters on April 16, should be considered serious because “some of them were very important people.“ He added that he hopes they are ”random” occurrences.

A day earlier, Leavitt was asked a similar question during a daily press briefing, with the reporter saying that some of the scientists had knowledge of nuclear or aerospace research.

“I haven’t spoken to our relevant agencies about it. I will certainly do that, and we’ll get you an answer. If true, of course, that’s definitely something I think this government and administration would deem worth looking into,” she said in response.

Multiple House lawmakers, including Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), have suggested the possibility that their disappearances or deaths are connected.

“The numbers seem very high in these certain areas of research. I think we’d better be paying attention, and I don’t think we should trust our government,” Burchett told the Daily Mail in March, referring to the researchers.

In the interview, Burchett referred to the case of a former Air Force general, William McCasland, who went missing from his New Mexico home without his phone or glasses in February. His colleague, Monica Reza, who works as a rocket scientist, was also reported missing last year after going hiking in Southern California.

Speaking to Fox News this week, Burlison said he was particularly concerned about McCasland’s case, describing him as an expert on unidentified flying objects, or UFOs. He said that his office was working to contact the former general about a separate congressional investigation.

“He was on our list to talk to, and he disappeared, so that kind of piqued our interest,” Burlison told Fox News.

He later added, “It’s just really, really strange that in about a five-month period of time, four or five people walked out their front door and never returned, and were all doing advanced aerospace research.”

NASA released a statement on Monday saying that, while it is “coordinating and cooperating with the relevant agencies in relation to the missing scientists,” there is nothing to suggest “a national security threat.”

“The agency is committed to transparency and will provide more information as able,” NASA wrote in a post on X, responding to a video with Leavitt’s comments.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 19:15

Israel Says Hezbollah Fired Rockets, Breaching Lebanon Ceasefire

Just as the Iran ceasefire seems on the brink of collapsing (though unilaterally extended late in the day Tuesday by Trump), so does the Lebanon one as well, as on Tuesday Israel accused Hezbollah of firing a new rocket volley at its IDF forces, effectively breaking the ceasefire.

The Israel Defense Forces said Hezbollah targeted its troops in southern Lebanon, seeing in this a breaching of the fragile ceasefire ahead of a further round of US-mediated talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments.

Illustrative prior war image: Getty

However, Hezbollah's stated stance is that it has the "right to resist" Israeli forces operating inside southern Lebanon, given they are occupying forces.

Starting last Thursday, a 10-day ceasefire brokered by Washington took effect, even as Israeli forces remain deployed in a strip of Lebanese territory several miles deep along the border.

Israel calls it a 'buffer zone' - but Lebanese sees it as a land grab. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and leader of the Amal Movement - which is the other big Shia organization in Lebanon - has newly stated that if Israel "maintains its occupation, whether of areas, positions, or by drawing yellow lines, it will smell the scent of resistance every day."

He added: "If they insist on remaining, they will face resistance, and our history bears witness to that."

Lebanese officials have also charged Israel with trying to erase the Lebanese presence in southern Lebanon in a genocidal act, or 'cultural genocide'.

This after Israeli forces have carried out demolitions in southern villages, targeting what they describe as Hezbollah infrastructure embedded in civilian areas.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported new detonations in at least eight villages on Tuesday, as well as shelling in some of these locations.

🇮🇱🇱🇧⚡️– Al Jazeera: Israel has established a "yellow line" in southern Lebanon, a no-go zone targeting anyone who approaches. Similar to measures in Gaza, the move risks further land seizures and systematic demolitions. pic.twitter.com/oeovSFDJ1i

— MonitorX (@MonitorX99800) April 19, 2026

Israeli officials previously referred to their deployment boundary as the "Yellow Line" - which it should be noted is a designation also used in Gaza, where entire local neighborhoods have long ago been permanently wiped out.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 18:50

Democratic Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick Resigns Ahead of Ethics Committee Sanctions Hearing

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) resigned from Congress on Tuesday, stepping down hours before the House Ethics Committee was set to recommend a punishment for the 25 violations of campaign finance law and House rules it found her guilty of last month.

The third-term Florida Democrat announced her resignation in a written statement, calling the ethics process a “witch hunt” and saying the committee had denied her new attorney’s request for time to prepare a defense while a federal criminal case against her remains pending.

“I will not stand by and pretend that this has been anything other than a witch hunt,” Cherfilus-McCormick said.

“I simply cannot stand by and allow my due process rights to be trampled on, and my good name to be tarnished.”

“I hereby resign from the 119th Congress, effective immediately,” she said.

In a brief hearing Tuesday afternoon, Ethics Committee Chairman Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.) confirmed the panel had lost jurisdiction following the resignation and would not recommend a sanction.

He read the resignation letter to the committee into the record, in which Cherfilus-McCormick called it “the honor of my lifetime to serve the people of my district.”

“After careful reflection and prayer, I have concluded that it is in my best interest and the interest of my constituents and the institution that I set aside at this time,” she wrote, making her resignation effective at 1:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Guest defended the 2 1/2-year investigation against what he called claims it had been “a rush to judgment.”

“This was a very deliberate process to gather information into allegations that were extremely serious and extremely complicated,” he said, noting the committee interviewed multiple witnesses over two years and reviewed tens of thousands of subpoenaed documents.

He said Cherfilus-McCormick had been given “multiple ample opportunities to present exculpatory evidence” and to comply with the committee’s subpoena.

Ranking Member Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) echoed the chairman’s remarks.

“Nobody’s happy. I don’t think any of us are happy at what we’ve gone through,” he said.

“But I am extremely proud of being associated with all of you, and I’m grateful for the hard work and the diligence of the staff.”

Ethics Investigation

Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation ends a two-year ethics investigation before the committee could formally recommend a sanction. The panel had been scheduled to meet at 2 p.m. Tuesday to decide whether to recommend expulsion, censure, reprimand, a fine, or other penalties.

Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) had said he would file a motion on the House floor to expel Cherfilus-McCormick once the committee issued its recommendation. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters last week that “the facts are indisputable at this point” and predicted the full chamber would have moved to expel her.

Expelling a member requires a two-thirds vote of members present, meaning Republicans would have needed roughly 70 Democrats to join them, assuming full attendance. Only six House members have been expelled in U.S. history: three for disloyalty during the Civil War, two after criminal convictions, and former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in 2023.

The third-term Florida Democrat was accused of routing more than $3.6 million from Trinity Health Care Services, her family’s company, into her 2022 special election campaign through family members, allied political action committees, and shell entities. Investigators have said much of that money stemmed from a roughly $5 million overpayment Florida mistakenly sent Trinity for COVID-19 vaccination work in 2021.

The committee’s adjudicatory subcommittee announced on March 27 that it had found 25 of 27 counts against her proven by clear and convincing evidence. The counts include accepting improper campaign contributions, filing false reports with the Federal Election Commission, failing to file required House financial disclosure reports on time, and providing special favors in connection with Community Project Funding requests.

In a memorandum filed ahead of Tuesday’s hearing, committee counsel wrote that the 25 violations were “very serious standing on their own,” citing the scope and continuous nature of her conduct and her refusal to accept responsibility as aggravating factors.

Counsel compared her case to Santos, who was expelled following a committee report detailing hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign finance violations. Cherfilus-McCormick’s case, counsel wrote, stands apart because the funds involved total in the millions.

During a hearing last month, Cherfilus-McCormick declined to testify, citing her Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. Her federal trial is currently scheduled for February 2027.

Her attorney, William Barzee, has argued the committee should have held a full evidentiary trial at which he could have called witnesses and presented evidence.

Ahead of Tuesday’s hearing, Cherfilus-McCormick submitted letters of support from faith leaders, union officials, and community organizations in Florida’s 20th Congressional District.

The Palm Beach County Democratic Black Caucus and the nonprofit Women of Veteran Affairs both urged the committee to reject expulsion, arguing it would leave hundreds of thousands of Floridians without representation during an upcoming redistricting fight in the state.

“Our district is currently navigating a high-stakes redistricting period, during which continued representation is essential,” the Palm Beach group wrote.

“The loss of a sitting Member would weaken the district’s ability to advocate for itself and protect its interests when those interests are most vulnerable.”

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis had called a special session in Florida for late April to redraw maps in the Republican-dominated legislature.

Before Tuesday, a small number of Democrats had publicly called on her to resign, including Reps. Jim Himes of Connecticut, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Becca Balint of Vermont.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 18:25

A Reckoning Is Underway At The FDA

Authored by Maryanne Demasi via The Brownstone Institute,

For months, a quiet battle has been unfolding inside the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

It began with an analysis of child deaths after Covid vaccination, followed by strategic leaks to major media outlets, and has now erupted into the open with a memo from the regulator’s own vaccine chief.

In September, it was reported that FDA officials had privately investigated 25 paediatric deaths following Covid vaccination — the first systematic review of such cases since the rollout began.

The findings were meant to be presented to the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). But the presentation never came. The meeting passed without a word. Something had happened behind closed doors.

Now we know what.

On 13 November 2025, STAT published an extraordinary insider account describing a tense internal meeting in which FDA scientist Dr Tracy Beth Høeg presented evidence of young people who had died after Covid vaccination.

According to STAT, her findings triggered pushback from career FDA regulators who feared the implications of acknowledging fatal cases.

Now, comes the explosive memo from FDA vaccine chief Dr Vinay Prasad, confirming — for the first time — that US regulators have formally attributed at least 10 of these children’s deaths to Covid vaccination.

Prasad called it “a profound revelation” with far-reaching implications for American vaccine policy, adding that the true number is “certainly an underestimate.”

Here, I’ll take you through the memo, the leaks, the internal rebellion at FDA, and what this means — not just for Covid vaccines, but for all vaccine approvals going forward.

This story marks a turning point in US vaccine regulation.

The Story That Divided the Regulator

In early September, insiders at the FDA and CDC quietly told the New York Times and the Washington Post that the agency had begun investigating child deaths reported to VAERS.

My reporting confirmed that Dr Tracy Beth Høeg, a senior adviser within the FDA’s vaccine division, had led the review — contacting families, gathering medical records, and obtaining autopsy findings.

click image for story

It was the first case-by-case evaluation of paediatric deaths conducted since the vaccines were authorised.

The review identified twenty-five children whose deaths occurred following vaccination. Those findings were expected to be presented to ACIP on 18–19 September. Instead, without explanation, the discussion disappeared from the agenda.

Even FDA Commissioner Dr Marty Makary had hinted at the findings on CNN, saying, “We’ve been looking into the VAERS database self-reports, [and] there have been children that have died from the Covid vaccine.”

He described an “intense” investigation involving doctors, autopsies, and family interviews. Yet ACIP heard nothing.

Had the FDA reversed course — or had internal forces blocked disclosure?

STAT’s reporting offered the first real clues.

Inside the FDA: The Meeting That Changed Everything

STAT described a confidential gathering of FDA vaccine scientists in which Høeg presented slides listing roughly two dozen deaths of young people following vaccination.

One slide reportedly read: “Timing fits. Diagnosis fits. No better explanation found. Sufficient information provided.”

According to STAT, some career regulators reacted with “quiet horror” — not at the deaths themselves, but at the policy implications of acknowledging them.

The article portrayed Høeg as pushing to bring the findings to ACIP and to amend vaccine labels for younger males, while longtime staff resisted, describing the evidence as “thin” and worrying about restricting vaccine access.

STAT reported that “no career regulator would stand by the decision,” and Høeg backed away from presenting the cases to ACIP.

It was a rare glimpse of a regulator divided against itself: career staff trying to contain the findings, and FDA leadership apparently trying to surface them.

Nothing more was said publicly — until Prasad’s memo detonated inside the agency.

Prasad’s Explosive Memo

The memo from Dr Vinay Prasad, Director of the FDA’s Centre for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), is unlike anything ever issued by a senior US vaccine regulator.

Addressed to all CBER staff, it confirmed what STAT only implied: FDA scientists had determined that “at least 10 children have died after and because of receiving Covid-19 vaccination.”

Prasad wrote that the true number is “certainly an underestimate” and that “the real number is higher.”

He wrote that “deaths were reported between 2021 and 2024, and ignored for years,” calling it a systemic failure that “requires humility and introspection.”

“It is horrifying to consider that the US vaccine regulation, including our actions, may have harmed more children than we saved,” he wrote.

Prasad defended Høeg’s analysis, saying “Dr Hoeg was correct in her assessment,” and that disagreements reflected subjective coding — not differing facts.

He also noted that healthy children at extremely low risk from Covid had been “coerced” into vaccination under Biden-era mandates, some of which he said “were harmful.”

He added that it was “difficult to read cases where kids aged 7 to 16 may be dead as a result of covid vaccines.”

Prasad also challenged one of the most repeated claims in pandemic messaging — that Covid infection causes more myocarditis than vaccination.

He argued that these comparisons rely on faulty denominators, because they count only people sick enough to seek hospital care while ignoring the far larger number of infections that never present to clinics.

He underscored that vaccination does not prevent eventual infection, so the comparison cannot be framed as “virus versus vaccine.”

A vaccinated child still encounters the virus over their lifetime — but now carries the additional myocarditis risk from the vaccine itself.

The Leaks

Prasad’s memo contained another revelation — confirmation of internal sabotage inside the FDA.

He wrote that “slides she presented, emails she sent, and distorted firsthand reports” from Høeg’s meeting had been leaked to media outlets by staff who believed they were acting appropriately.

He condemned the behaviour as “unethical, illegal, and…factually incorrect,” a blunt repudiation of how the STAT narrative had framed events.

In Prasad’s telling, Høeg had not exaggerated the evidence at all. She had uncovered what the FDA had failed to recognise for nearly three years — that Covid vaccines had killed children.

Far from being the rogue figure depicted in selective leaks, she was doing precisely what the public assumes a regulator does: investigating deaths, contacting families, gathering records, and treating each case as a potential signal that demands scrutiny.

For Prasad, the leaks weren’t merely improper — they betrayed the core obligation of a scientific agency.

He said internal debates must remain inside the FDA until ready for public release, and that he would not “endorse selective reporting of our meetings and documents.” Anyone unwilling to follow that principle, he said, should resign.

It was an extraordinary directive — and a clear sign that the internal battle over whether to acknowledge children’s deaths had reached a breaking point.

A Reaction from Inside ACIP

When the memo surfaced, ACIP vice-chair Dr Robert Malone issued his own statement.

He wrote that he had been aware of the review through ACIP’s internal working group, and that the child deaths “have been known since this summer but not released to the public due to the need to validate the initial findings independently.”

Bound by confidentiality, he could only say, “I have seen the data and findings, and they are even more stunning than this strongly worded letter indicates.”

He said he was “stunned, gobsmacked,” adding: “The significance and importance of this letter in the context of US and global vaccine policy cannot be overestimated. This is a revolution, the likes of which I never expected to see in my lifetime.”

Malone then took aim at the Covid-19 mRNA products: “These products do not work. They do not prevent disease and death. And as Secretary Kennedy testified in the Senate, objective analysis cannot even demonstrate that, on balance, they saved lives.”

MIT professor Retsef Levi — who leads ACIP’s Covid-19 Vaccines Workgroup — issued a similarly forceful response.

He wrote, “the acknowledgement that at least 10 children died from COVID vaccination must be followed with disclosure to the parents,” and said regulators and media “have gaslighted the vaccine injured, including the parents who lost their precious child.”

He described disclosure as “a moral imperative” and essential for any hope of trustworthy vaccine programs.

Inside ACIP, the memo is being understood not only as a scientific shift — but an ethical reckoning.

Critics Rise Up

Predictably, the memo triggered pushback from establishment figures who have spent years defending the Covid vaccines from scrutiny.

Dr Paul Offit — a long-time industry-aligned vaccine promoter and a familiar voice deployed whenever safety concerns arise — dismissed the memo as “science by press-release.”

He argued that the memo lacked context and should not be treated as evidence, calling the memo “irresponsible” and “dangerous.”

But Prasad’s communication was never presented as a scientific publication. It was an internal memo to staff. Offit’s attempt to judge it by academic-paper standards is a tactic to avoid addressing what the memo actually says — that children died and regulators overlooked it.

Former CBER director Dr Peter Marks — whose tenure is explicitly criticised in the memo for failing to identify child deaths for years — said he was “taken aback by the clearly political tone of the communication.”

But Prasad’s memo details precisely why Marks’s era is under scrutiny, including his 2021 decision to push out senior FDA officials Marion Gruber and Philip Krause after they objected to the Biden administration’s rush toward booster approval.

If anything was political, it was that episode.

For years, figures like Offit and Marks insisted that VAERS was a robust early-warning system — and that anyone citing it without follow-up investigation “didn’t understand pharmacovigilance.”

Now that FDA investigators have actually done the follow-up — contacting families, obtaining medical records, and reviewing autopsies — these same voices suddenly claim VAERS can’t establish causality at all.

This is the core hypocrisy. You cannot praise VAERS as the backbone of vaccine safety, then declare its signals meaningless once they are properly investigated.

Critics also warned that stricter evidence requirements — such as randomised trials and rejection of surrogate endpoints — would “slow innovation” or “harm vaccine confidence.”

But vaccine confidence is already shattered. Fewer than 10% of American healthcare workers took last season’s Covid booster.

Trust collapsed not because regulators asked too many questions — but because they asked too few, dismissed safety concerns that later proved real, and insisted on messaging long after the data had shifted.

The problem for these critics is not that children have died after vaccination. The problem is that the regulators have finally acknowledged it.

The Future of Vaccine Regulation in the United States

Prasad’s memo goes far beyond confirming child deaths. It announces a structural overhaul of vaccine oversight.

He wrote that future vaccine approvals would require randomised trials for most new products; that immunogenicity studies would no longer be accepted as proof of effectiveness in new populations; and that vaccines for pregnant women would not be authorised on unproven surrogate markers.

He committed to rewriting the US influenza vaccine framework and overhauling assessments of concomitant vaccination.

Most strikingly, he declared that vaccines would be treated as “no better or worse” than any other medical product — ending decades of special regulatory leniency.

“Never again,” he wrote, “will the US FDA commissioner have to himself find deaths in children for staff to identify it.”

A Global Shift Begins

The ACIP meeting on 4–5 December will be the first held under these new realities — with the knowledge that the FDA has attributed paediatric deaths to Covid vaccination, that senior leadership has repudiated the previous regulatory approach, and that a revolution in evidentiary standards is underway.

Because many international regulators track the FDA, the acknowledgment that children died from the Covid-19 vaccine — and that the agency failed to detect it — marks a seismic moment in global vaccine policy.

For bereaved families, the acknowledgment is devastating but necessary. For the public, it signals that the institutional silence of the pandemic era is beginning to fracture.

The reckoning has begun.

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 17:40

Whistleblower Says CIA Hid 2020 Election Threats To Help Biden

For years, Democrats and the mainstream media treated 2020 as settled history: the system worked, the election was secure, and accusations of fraud were conspiracy theories.

However, a newly declassified intelligence memo, paired with fresh whistleblower allegations, points in a less convenient direction. 

Behind the scenes, U.S. intelligence warned well before the 2020 election that core election systems were more exposed than the public was told, especially the vast digital repositories that hold voter registration data. Making matters worse, according to former senior cyber official Christopher Porter, intelligence leaders then kept those warnings from public view because airing them could have benefited President Donald Trump and complicated the push to portray Joe Biden’s eventual victory as unquestionable.

On January 15, 2020, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) produced an assessment warning that foreign adversaries could compromise U.S. election infrastructure in the coming presidential election, which has just been declassified. The memo specifically called out Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other non-state actors. Analysts did not claim they had evidence of a specific plot to alter votes nationwide, but they did say the threat was real, technically plausible, and serious enough that senior intelligence officials personally briefed President Trump at the White House in February 2020. 

What worried analysts most was not some Hollywood-style rewrite of every ballot cast in America. “We assess that centralized election-related data repositories, such as voter registration databases, pollbooks, and official election websites, are most vulnerable to exploitation, and adversaries could use access to these systems to disrupt election processes,” the NIC assessment warned. 

Intelligence analysts believed vote tabulators and reporting systems had weaknesses, especially machines without paper backups. Despite this, they judged it would be hard for foreign adversaries to change the certified national outcome through direct machine compromise alone. That was never the same as saying the systems were secure in any ordinary sense. It meant large-scale outcome manipulation looked difficult, while localized disruption and perception management looked much easier. 

Despite the warnings of threats, after the election, senior officials pushed the opposite narrative, assuring Americans that 2020 had been a model of resilience.

In mid-November 2020, the Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council’s executive committee issued the now-famous statement declaring that “the November 3rd election was the most secure in American history.” Chris Krebs, then running the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), later testified that he approved the statement and regarded it as the consensus view of the election-security community. That tidy line proved politically useful. It also sat awkwardly beside an internal intelligence record showing that multiple foreign actors had the capacity to exploit the very systems officials were publicly celebrating.

Porter, who prepared the January 2020 memo in his role overseeing cyber intelligence, says the contradiction was not an accident. “What is shocking is how uncontroversial some of these findings are to professionals—it is no secret that China and Iran compromise election equipment for a variety of intelligence purposes, nor was it controversial at the time that these systems had technical vulnerabilities,” he said. He goes further, alleging that bureaucratic and political considerations shaped what the public was allowed to know. “Every agency concurred on these findings, but because it was seen as potentially aiding the President’s reelection campaign, there was an active effort to damage him politically by refusing to share the declassified report with the public.”

Another way to put it was that the truth would have undermined faith in Joe Biden’s eventual victory. That is the heart of the whistleblower claim. 

According to Porter, Trump personally ordered the information declassified because he believed election integrity demanded it. But Porter said that CIA leadership refused to release it.

“The President of the United States personally ordered this information declassified and shared with the public because he thought election integrity was so important to our country. Despite this, CIA leaders at the time refused to release the declassified report,” he said. He also alleges the resistance did not end there. “Years later, when he was reelected, CIA went so far as to claim that the report had never been declassified. Even the record of its declassification had been removed from the system,” he said. Porter describes that as an extraordinary breach of normal intelligence practice, adding, “It is important for people to recognize that this is not normal behavior by the Intelligence Community—most officers would never do something like this.”

 Intelligence reports later concluded that China gained access to voter registration databases in multiple states before the election. A confidential FBI counterintelligence source also reported in summer 2020 that Beijing was attempting to interfere to aid Biden, including through a scheme involving fake U.S. driver’s licenses shipped into the country. Those reports did not become part of the public understanding in real time. Iranian hackers were not indicted until November 2021. Chinese penetration of voter data emerged publicly only after documents surfaced in March 2026. By then, the “most secure in history” line had already hardened into civic catechism.

The intelligence community’s inspector general, Christopher Fox, has opened a full investigation into whether Porter’s warnings were buried and whether he faced retaliation for pressing agencies to follow Trump’s declassification order. That review arrives alongside earlier findings from the intelligence community’s analytic ombudsman, who concluded in January 2021 that some analysts downplayed China’s role because of their disdain for Trump and reluctance to bolster his China policy.

None of this proves that foreign actors changed the 2020 outcome through hacked machines. But it tells us that senior officials knew election systems had meaningful vulnerabilities, but went out of their way to sell to the public a more politically convenient story.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 17:20

This AI Warning Is A Myth; The Danger Is Not...

Authored by Kay Rubacek via The Epoch Times,

You know this story.

Drop a frog into boiling water, and it will scramble out immediately. But place that same frog in cool water, heat it slowly, and degree by degree, it will never notice the danger until it is too late.

Most of us accept this without question.

The problem is that the story is not true.

It traces back to a German physiologist named Friedrich Goltz, who in 1869 conducted a series of experiments with a rather unusual purpose: to determine whether the soul resided in the brain or the spinal cord. He removed portions of a frog’s brain and observed what the animal could no longer do without it.

He found that a frog without its brain would sit placidly in slowly heating water and not attempt to escape. However, a normal frog, with its brain intact, would feel the rising temperature and get out.

That finding was passed around over the decades that followed, stripped of its context, and reshaped into the cautionary tale we now all repeat. 

later biologists confirmed the original finding: A frog in cold water will jump out before it gets too hot.

The frog that stays in hot water is the one that can no longer think for itself.

We have been repeating that story for more than 150 years as settled truth, because it felt right, without ever stopping to ask whether it was actually true.

We accepted a false warning about the danger of not noticing gradual change, without noticing that the warning itself was false.

That should give us pause on its own.

But this month, it became more than an interesting historical footnote when a team of researchers from Carnegie Mellon University, the University of Oxford, MIT, and UCLA published a landmark study on how artificial intelligence (AI) is affecting human cognition.

The findings are fascinating, but the metaphor they chose caught many people’s attention.

They wrote of the boiling frog.

Scientists studying the effects of AI on the human mind described how the human cost of using AI could be “analogous to the ‘boiling frog’ effect, where each incremental act feels costless, until the cumulative effect becomes overwhelming to address.”

They were describing something that doesn’t arrive in a single dramatic moment, but degree by degree, use by use, in the ordinary decisions of ordinary days.

Whether knowingly or not, they used a story about an animal that only stops trying to escape once you remove its ability to think.

In their study, the researchers gave participants a series of mathematical reasoning and reading comprehension problems to solve. One group had access to an AI assistant throughout. The other worked alone. Then, without warning, the AI was removed, and everyone was tested independently on the same problems.

The AI group performed significantly worse.

That result, perhaps, is not surprising.

What is surprising is this: Every participant in the experiment had a skip button.

There was no penalty for using it, no reward for pushing through. The choice to try or to give up was entirely their own.

The AI group chose to skip at nearly double the rate.

This was not an inability to solve the problems.

It was an unwillingness to try. After just 10 minutes of having an AI system handle every moment of difficulty, something had changed in the participants’ choices. The researchers give a name to what was lost: “desirable difficulties.” It is a term from cognitive science that describes the productive struggle that, in the moment, creates a challenge and, over time, is the process by which human beings learn, grow, and develop capabilities.

The discomfort of not knowing, the resistance of a hard problem, the effort required to work through something without being handed the answer—these are not obstacles to learning. They are learning. And AI, which is designed to be maximally helpful in the immediate moment, removes them every single time.

The concerning part is not that AI makes people less capable in any permanent or measurable sense; it is that it makes people less willing to try. It erodes the willingness to push through a challenge—the very foundation on which intelligence is built and maintained. A person who never lifts anything heavy does not lose the biological capacity for strength overnight.

This is what the researchers meant when they invoked the boiling frog metaphor. They were not predicting any single catastrophic failure. They were observing an accumulation of small human surrenders.

There is a generation growing up right now who is living this on a daily basis. A recent Gallup poll found that 42 percent of Gen Z respondents believe that AI is harming their ability to think carefully and will make it harder for them to learn in the future.

These are children and young adults, still with developing human brains, forming their cognitive habits, their tolerance for difficulty, and their relationship with struggle, inside an environment that has been optimized to remove all of those things for them as efficiently as possible. The researchers warned explicitly of the risk of creating a generation that has lost the disposition to struggle productively without technological support. That is not a distant possibility. It is a trajectory in motion.

The irony at the center of all of this is that we have spent 150 years repeating a false story about how humans fail to notice gradual danger. We have repeated it uncritically, without checking, because it felt familiar and instinctively correct. Now the scientists documenting the most significant gradual cognitive shift of our time have reached for that same false story to name what they are seeing.

It’s time to rewrite the boiling frog story.

The frog with a functioning brain gets out of the water before it gets too hot.

That capacity to feel the rising temperature, to recognize what is happening, and to choose to respond is not a small thing. It is, in the context of this moment, very nearly everything.

The question worth asking is not whether we are using AI. Most people already are, and that will not change. The question is how we respond to the rising temperature.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 17:00

Israeli Soldiers In Lebanon Who Sledgehammered Statue Of Jesus Arrested As Bibi Does Damage Control

Earlier this week we featured commentary on a disturbing viral photograph: IDF Under Fire After Troops Caught Destroying Statue Of Jesus With Sledgehammer.

The destruction of the statue took place in the Maronite Christian village of Debel, which is roughly 54 miles to the southeast of Beirut and situated just north of the border between Lebanon and Israel.

Photo taken by IDF soldiers

Since the onset of the war Israel began waging against Iran in March, Debel has come under heavy fire after a second front was created against Lebanon when the IDF resumed attacks against Hezbollah - and as Hezbollah began once again lobbing missiles into northern Israel.

The demographics of the village are almost entirely Christian, with 99.5% of registered voters adhering to the Christian faith, over 92% of whom are Maronite Catholics. In the 20th century, Christianity - made up chiefly of Lebanese Catholic and Eastern Orthodox believers - was actually the majority demographic of the small Mediterranean country.

At this point, Islam is a slight majority, but Christianity is still the most sizeable minority, also with the Lebanese President being a Christian along with top officials. But most of the American public remains ignorant of just how large and visible the ancient Christian communities of the Middle East remain, with many Westerners in general falsely assuming the whole of the Levant is somehow just "the Muslim world."

Increasingly, outlets like Fox News have begun to little by little acknowledge the suffering of Lebanese and Palestinian Christians as Israel's multi-front wars grind on. And this is why it is now such a sensitive issue for the Netanyahu government, which has already long ago lost the support of Tucker Carlson and some other big conservative names, even including some Christian leaders.

As of Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the soldier who struck the statue of Jesus with a sledgehammer, along with the soldier who photographed the incident, will receive 30 days of military detention. They will also be "removed from combat duty" following an inquiry - though there's no indication they will be fully discharged from the army.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the aftermath of the photo circulating said he was "stunned and saddened" by what happened. The IDF in turn expressed "deep regret over the incident" - with the military also saying troops had replaced the damaged statue "in full co-ordination with the local community" shortly afterward.

But despite all of this public relations 'clean-up' - the tragic reality that remains is that Lebanese, Palestinian, and Syrian Christians will continue to die.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 16:40

All The Dream-Houses Of The Left

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

The Left’s political imagination builds heroes, villains, and entire histories untethered from reality, substituting narrative for fact until it collapses under scrutiny.

Pseudo-Heroes

It is difficult to determine whether the bizarro worldview of the current Democrat-media nexus can simply be attributed to either its generic Trump Derangement Syndrome or the attendant Wile E. Coyote/Roadrunner obsessive/compulsive disorder. But the crazy world of the Left increasingly bears scant resemblance to reality.

In this alternate universe, Eric Swalwell was a liberal icon and invaluable asset for years, though admittedly a bit randy and occasionally a serial sexual predator—a fact that the man himself made little effort to hide.

Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner was, at last, the Left’s “real thing,” the white working-class liberal stiff who could win back the hoi polloi—although he couldn’t get his story straight on whether his Nazi tattoo was an accident or supposed proof that he was brainwashed into Nazism by the toxic US military.

Tim Walz was also hailed as the Left’s Mr. Everyman, a truck-driving street fighter, although he is now in anti-American socialist Spain, at a time of war, libeling his own country and American soldiers as being in the service of a fascist cause.

Jeffrey Epstein was allegedly a mere eccentric autodidact, wannabe insider, and generous party host, though a bit too eager to use his girls to buy his way into liberal academic and intellectual circles.

Sam Bankman-Fried was a lovable genius gadfly, a billionaire slob, but with a big and timely checkbook for radical causes.

Jussie Smollett was to be the next George Floyd rallying cry, if only his ridiculous lies were not so ridiculous.

And George Floyd—multi-felon, ex-convict, past home invader who once stuck a pistol in a woman’s stomach, arrested while passing counterfeit bills, high on drugs, and resisting arrest—became the innocent martyr who died at the hands of diabolical, murderous police and set America afire.

Erasing Joe Biden

Along with such a pantheon, somehow the Democrat borg also fantasizes that the historic legacy of the Biden years has been squandered by Trump—as if the country suffers from collective amnesia.

But any sane person knows that Biden served as a waxen effigy, puppeteered by the radical Left to serve as a moderate veneer over the most radical agenda in modern memory.

In just four years, Biden’s handlers obliterated the southern border, admitting 10–12 million unvetted aliens, including an estimated 500,000 criminals, apparently as a demographic booster shot for their otherwise unpopular agendas.

Almost daily, we read of Americans assaulted, raped, and murdered by illegal aliens—stories almost always smothered in the left-wing media.

Rampant multibillion-dollar theft of US entitlement money by foreign nationals or recently naturalized citizens from Minneapolis to Los Angeles is also daily fare. The nihilistic Biden years of open borders have cost the nation untold amounts in blood and treasure. Yet the Left’s answer is to attack ICE officers attempting to enforce federal immigration law.

Stranger still is the contrast between protesters who seem to be mostly affluent, suburban white women. The latter, for some reason, seem to be free between 9 and 5 on workdays, to spit on, scream at, and obstruct ICE officers—whose ranks are working-class and 45 percent non-white.

All this is called progressivism: impeding the deportation of violent criminals who prey on poor neighborhoods, lacking the security that the protesters take for granted in their own protected enclaves.

The Biden puppeteers enriched and empowered theocratic Iran by lifting sanctions. They did little to nothing when Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen serially attacked US installations and ships.

The Biden years saw near-record gas prices, 9 percent hyperinflation, all-time high crime spikes, and a president who even Democrats now admit was non compos mentis. He was toppled as a candidate for reelection by a coup of Democrat backroom politicos, but only after a disastrous debate. In his place, they and donors appointed a mostly inert Kamala Harris as nominee, who, as a 2020 presidential candidate, had failed to win a single delegate.

Iran Fantasies

The Left has created another fantasy world out of the current six-week Iran war.

When Trump warned on a Monday that the Iranian regime might face terrible punishment for its continued drone and missile attacks, he was libeled as a modern Nazi exterminator, hellbent on mass death. When on Tuesday Iran relented and asked for negotiations, Trump suddenly became smeared as a TACO naif, apparently too eager for peace. Each day, the Left tries to think up a new argument for American defeat, even as Iran suffers more one-sided damage. Their idea is to embolden Iran to hold out, in hopes that Trump—under constant left-wing assault, international pressure to lower gas prices, and his own restive Congressional allies—will fold and then be trashed by the Left as a TACO again.

More preposterously, the Left has peddled the fantasy that Trump’s demands for Iran to surrender its nuclear material (mostly hyper-enriched during the Biden administration) copied the Obama Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the so-called Iran deal.

But who could deny that, under Obama, the deal empowered Iran to rearm even more rapidly with lifted sanctions, nocturnal cash transfers, and the unfreezing of its assets?

The frenzied armament and empowerment of Iran either terrified or impressed the Obama administration enough to hatch the wacky idea of envisioning a Shiite crescent of Tehran, Damascus, Beirut, and Gaza. Such terrorist regimes would “balance” the moderate Arab states and democratic Israel in “creative tension.”

And the message to Iran was not nuclear disarmament, but slow, graduated nuclear armament, albeit of the sort to be completed during an administration to come.

In contrast, Trump’s deal was with an obliterated, prostrate Iranian military. The US fleet was in charge of the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of Iran. More than 300 US combat aircraft could render Iran a medieval mess with impunity, should it persist in its terrorist agendas.

Begging a fully armed and defiant Iran merely to postpone its acquisition of a bomb is not the equivalent of dictating to a flattened Iran a series of demands that, if unmet, will lead to its veritable destruction—after it had already suffered the loss of a half-century investment in a half-trillion-dollar arsenal and military infrastructure.

In the surreal left-wing narrative, the more Iran lost its air force, navy, most of its missiles and drones, its command and control, its subterranean arsenals, its nuclear production facilities, and its factories that turn out weapons of war, the more the Democrat-media nexus declared the war lost and the Americans—after six weeks and 13 lost lives—to be trapped in a quagmire analogous to the war in Vietnam (eight years of war with 58,000 dead, 150,000 wounded).

Impeaching Pete Hegseth?

Examine another fantasy: the charade of a Democrat effort to impeach Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on silly charges of supposedly aiding an unauthorized war against Iran, war crimes, reckless handling of classified information, obstruction of Congressional oversight, abuse of power, politicization of the military, and conduct bringing disrepute to the US and its armed forces.

Each of these writs is either false or more aptly applies to the Biden and prior Democrat administrations.

Note that Hegseth, in a single year, fixed the years-long crisis of falling enlistment that he inherited. He has now even exceeded recruitment targets by emphasizing that soldiers should concentrate on combat effectiveness and not fixate on race, sex, or sexual orientation.

His Pentagon oversaw the summer 2025 destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities (with no fatalities), the military extradition of Nicolás Maduro and the recalibration of a once-rogue Venezuela (with no casualties), and the current six-week war that had destroyed the military capability of a once-feared, 93 million-person theocratic Iran (with 13 fatalities so far).

Hegseth has rebooted procurement with emphasis on far more excellent weapons rather than too few superb ones. Compare that to the prior secretary, Lloyd Austin, who went medically AWOL without informing the White House that he was incapacitated for 3–4 days in the ICU. He oversaw the Pentagon’s historic misadventure in Afghanistan and the constant attacks on US soldiers in the Middle East that went unanswered and emboldened Iran’s terrorist proxies. No Republican called for his impeachment.

The war in Iran is not “unauthorized”; it has not exceeded the 90-day limit under the War Powers Act. However, Barack Obama’s seven-month unauthorized bombing of Libya, under the Democrats’ current logic, really was a “war crime,” as was his “unauthorized,” months-long predator assassination campaign on the Afghan border that killed 500, including four US citizens.

The Congress that wants to impeach Hegseth should extend its gaze to Joe Biden’s 30-year unlawful possession of unsecured and classified documents and his use of them with an unauthorized ghostwriter who subsequently destroyed subpoenaed tapes with impunity.

The military has been depoliticized. That is, it no longer serves as a fast-track laboratory for the Left to try out its radical theories—transgenderism, racial tribalism, and unconstitutional racial prejudiced preferences.

Resuscitating Lawfare?

Finally, for over a decade, the Left has waged a coordinated, often extralegal effort to destroy the campaigns and presidency of Donald Trump. What lawfare did the Left not sanction?

The first impeachment hinging on the hearsay evidence on an unnamed pseudo-whistleblower who connived with the prevaricator Adam Schiff—with the acquiescence of a partisan inspector general?

The Russian collusion hoax orchestrated by the past and present Obama FBI and CIA?

The laptop disinformation campaign, to use the government to censor the news and promulgate the lie of a Russian-concocted Hunter Biden laptop on the eve of an election?

The unconstitutional effort to de-ballot Trump in 25 blue states?

The SWAT-like, staged raid on the then-ex-president’s home at Mar-a-Lago to find some 100 classified documents from more than 11,000 confiscated?

The pervasion of the legal system to wage four years of lawfare in five civil and criminal courtrooms?

Despite all that, we are now warned by Democrats like Susan Rice that when the Left regains power, they are going to restart their vendettas to punish their enemies.

An unbalanced politico, James Carville, advises the Democrats to keep quiet about their real plans upon returning to power: to pack the court to destroy the 157-year, nine-justice Supreme Court; to end the 66-year, 50-state Union with two new blue “states,” Puerto Rico and Washington, DC—all to obtain in an instant four new left-wing senators; and to kill off the 220-year-old Senate filibuster.

Carville is upset that the decade-long lawfare against Trump failed. So now he advocates expanding the warping of the justice system to charge Trump’s family and friends.

What is the one constant theme in this alternate left-wing universe?

No Democrat outlines an immigration agenda, a way to round up Biden’s criminal illegal alien entrants, an energy plan, a way to balance the budget, an anti-corruption agenda to stop the multibillion-dollar looting of the federal and state welfare systems, or a new strategic plan abroad. Instead, the party creates alternate realities that demand changing the system itself rather than working within it to appeal to the American voter.

Living with daily delusions and shrieking at Trump demons raging in their collective heads is no way to run a country.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 16:20

Domestic Flights To Resume In Iran Tuesday, Even As Ceasefire's End Looms Large

The two-week Iran ceasefire ends Wednesday, and President Trump is saying he doesn't plan to extend it if a second round of talks in Pakistan fail. These Islamabad talks, it should be noted, have not so much as even gotten off the ground.

President Trump has further said "lots of bombs" will fall if there is no deal, and if Iran doesn't hand over its nuclear material. And yet the Iranians are remaining defiant and proving their resiliency by showing a sense of 'normalcy' has returned to Tehran and across much of the country. For example, the below is a fresh scene of bustling city life in the capital via AFP:

🇮🇷 Coffee shops bustling in Tehran as Middle East ceasefire nears end

Iranians gather in coffee shops in northern Tehran, as uncertainty grows over a push to stop the Middle East war from resuming. pic.twitter.com/svvALqngbT

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 21, 2026

Similar scenes have been portrayed going back to the second week of April. It was in the April 7-8 range that the ceasefire first took effect. 

Iran has also made clear its military and civic workers are rapidly rebuilding the country's damaged and destroyed infrastructure, starting with rail lines, bridges, and energy sites.

But an even bigger gamble is the resumption of air travel. NBC freshly reports Tuesday, citing state sources, that "Domestic flights will resume in Iran starting tomorrow, Iran Air announced earlier today."

"The semi-official news agency Fars reported that the airline announced flights would resume after a 50-day suspension caused by the war," NBC continues. "The agency said a flight from Tehran to the eastern city of Mashhad is scheduled to depart tomorrow morning and a return flight will operate the same day."

For well over a month airspace over Iran and the whole region was completely closed to commercial aviation, given the exchange of missiles made it highly dangerous. Again, the ceasefire could expire tomorrow, and it could be bombs away again.

As a reminder, the US and Israel actually directly attacked Iranian commercial aviation hubs amid the major Operation Epic Fury bombing campaign.

But the Iranian 'regime' is keen to demonstrate on the domestic front, but also on an international level, that it is indeed governing and remains firmly in control. The US and Israel have sought to overthrow the government, but that did not happen, and so leaders in Tehran want to demonstrate resolve even after President Trump claimed to have obliterated the country's navy, air force, missile sites, and much of its armed forces.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 15:20

Gold Vs An Erupting Financial Volcano

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Below, we look soberly at the historical case of gold in the backdrop of current headlines and a global financial system nearing an eruption moment. 

Although the catalysts of oil, war, bond dysfunction, and bloated stocks may seem modern and unique, the current case for gold is as timeless and constant as nature itself.

Volcanic Parallels…

In May of 1980, David Alexander Johnston, a volcanologist for the United States Geological Survey, was manning an observation post 10 kilometers from the percolating volcano of Mount St. Helens in the state of Washington. 

On May 18th, he would be the first to report the volcano’s sudden eruption. 

Within in minutes, however, Johnston would be killed by the volcano’s “lateral blasts.” his body was never recovered, and 56 others would also perish—along with 7,000 big game animals, 12 million fish, 200 homes, 300 kilometers of highway and 15 kilometers of railway.

Although monitoring volcanos may seem entirely removed from monitoring economic shocks, there are volcanic rumblings beneath our global oil, credit, equity and currency markets which are about to erupt. 

Like Johnston, few realize just how quickly observation can suddenly turn to extreme danger.

In fact, the current “calm before the financial eruption” feels almost surreal when one compares the hard facts of the global oil, bond and Main Street indicators against a topping stock market and a completely indecipherable “conflict narrative” coming out of DC.

To make this “eruption announcement” economically clear and soberly real as opposed to just sensational, all we need is a moment of silence to consider simple math, the rhyming cadence of history and a modicum of realism (and common sense).

Let’s start with oil.

Oil’s Warning Meters

History reminds us that the last great “oil shocks” of 1973 and 1990 had massive ripple effects on U.S. markets and Main Street economies.

What is coming, however, will be far worse.

During the oil embargo period of 1973, for example, the world experienced a 7% deficit of oil supply. This resulted in a 300% oil price surge, a 52% fall in U.S. stocks (over 2 years) and a peak inflation level of over 12%.

Seventeen years later, during the Gulf War, the world saw a similar global oil deficit (7%), a 75% spike in oil prices and a 21% fall in U.S. stocks.

Fast forward to today, however, and we see an almost surreal moment of total disregard for such warnings as well as blindness to the financial volcano growling on the horizon.

Since the last oil tanker squeezed past the Strait of Hormuz in late February, global oil usage of 100 million barrels per day has fallen by 13%, as 13 million barrels per day have been delayed by the fog of war.

This marks a global oil deficit in 2026 of nearly twice the levels seen in 1973 and 1990, yet the U.S. stock market (always the last to get the memo) is trading at nearly all-time highs as of this writing.

This Is Crazy…

Globally, oil reserves are running out, including within the U.S., whose Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at half their 400M barrel level. 

The situation is far worse in Asia, India and Africa, whose last oil deliveries from the Hormuz Strait ended days ago. 

This explains why hotels are closed in Mumbai, and fishing trawlers are out of gas off the coast of Thailand.

As for Australia, the EU and the UK, their last deliveries out of Hormuz came on April 10th. 

Now their leaders are nervously trying to limit demand while hoping for a true and lasting cease-fire for an Iranian conflict driven by a Truth-Social account rather than professional diplomacy or even a rudimentary understanding of global finance.

Even if this conflict ended right now, the delayed economic effects from these record-breaking energy deficits are and will be extraordinary. 

This is not a fable but a fact.

Oil, which fuels the world, also transports the goods which feed and move the world. 

When oil prices rise, the cost of everything rises, including the food transported on ships running on oil, and which food is grown from fertilizers made from oil. 

Within the next few weeks, we could be looking at a humanitarian food crisis in the developing economies.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index is near the bottom as the S&P nears its peak—marking a total (and tragi-comical) disconnect from Main Street indicators and Wall Street mania, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

Also never seen before in history is the surreal disconnect between the paper (Brent futures) price for oil and the actual sales (“dated Brent”) price for the commodity in real time – a gap of over $35 dollars.

This delta between real oil pricing and paper oil pricing represents a pathetic attempt by policy makers to psychologically suppress panic via the help of well – pure dishonesty.

But then again, dishonesty as a matter of policy is nothing new to broken financial regimes, a fact proven by inflation misreporting, recession denial or the latest frauds legalized on the COMEX.

(By the way, those governmental proxies front-running the fake futures oil price gambit are looking down the barrel of one heck of a short-squeeze unless this war – and spiking oil price – is not immediately resolved…)

In sum, what we are experiencing as of now is the worst oil supply deficit in history, about to humiliate a U.S. stock bubble at all-time highs, which is totally disconnected from Main Street at the same time a fertilizer/food crisis is about to erupt in the world’s most vulnerable economies.

And Then There’s the Bond Market…

But even such appalling conditions pale in comparison to what our global bond markets are telling us.

As I’ve repeated for years: “The bond market is the thing.” 

Boring? Perhaps. But bonds are absolutely critical. As sovereign bond demand tanks and hence bond yields rise, the cost of debt/borrowing rises. 

This is fatal to economies that now operate almost entirely on debt.

And there is no better measure of debt costs than the yield on 10-Year sovereign bonds, almost all of which are rising like shark fins around drowning (and debt-soaked) nations like the UK, Germany, the U.S. and Japan.

But what is even more remarkable in the global bond market is what we are seeing out of China, whose yields are falling, not rising. 

This means Chinese bonds have more demand than U.S. Treasuries, British Gilts, Japanese JGB’s and German Bunds, which also means the days of Western bond hegemony in general, and U.S. Treasury hegemony in particular, are witnessing an historical turning point, one which we have been forewarning for years. 

In the case of the U.S., the yield on the U.S. 10Y is creeping dangerously close toward its “Uh-Oh” recession-inducing red line of 4.6% to 4.8%.

At $40T in U.S. public debt, Uncle Sam simply cannot survive such rising yields. 

Regardless of who sits at the Federal Reserve Bank (which is neither “federal,” nor a “reserve” nor even a “bank”), trillions will need to be printed to buy America’s otherwise unloved, unwanted and weaponized IOUs.

Bessent may try a “soft default” of UST’s by illegally (yet in the name of “national security”) fixing yields lower and extending bond durations further out. 

But even such desperate measures will not stop the inevitable “mouse-clicking” of trillions in M0 Fed Balance Sheet dollars and M2 money supply expansion to save our bond markets at the expense of our currency.

In short, Uncle Sam will have no choice but to create bad money out of thin air to pay his own criminally negligent bar tab.

Even if peace were somehow declared today in the Middle East, the debt and currency damage was already fatally ill long before the conflict in Iran acted to accelerate the dying process.

Which brings us, of course, to real money vs. fake money…

All Roads Lead to Gold

The now undeniable destruction of the dollar’s absolute purchasing power and the desperate yet failed measures to somehow reclaim dollar hegemony are beyond debate. 

The USA and its dollar will not end, but their hegemony is already (and will continue) declining. Regardless of whatever happens next in Iran or elsewhere, the die for U.S. debt, and hence the USD, was cast long ago.

Yes, there is so much change everywhere and every day, especially now. We all see this. 

But such blunt-speak is not anti-American. It is financial realism and simple pattern recognition, for despite all speculations, squawking pundits, changing headlines, tweets, and armchair military guessing, nothing has really changed at all…

History reminds us again and again that broken nations over their skis in failed and extended wars, extreme deficit spending and political mismanagement have always debased their currencies to temporarily save their political optics and near-term legacies.

This has always meant “temporary prosperity followed by permanent ruin” created by a handful of “political and economic opportunists,” who, as Hemingway warned, take their nations toward currency destruction and war – the very scenario in which we now openly find ourselves.

As the world reserve currency slowly loses its trust, faith, credibility and purchasing power in such a classic yet historically familiar backdrop, gold, as it has done for thousands of years, will continue to honestly rise in a setting of now almost comical dishonesty.

Like David Johnston, many of us have been watching the financial debt volcano rumble in the distance. 

As of 2026, that volcano is now erupting. It is now up to each of us to avoid being swept away by its “lateral blasts” of paper currency destruction.

In other words, it’s up to each of us to own honest and real money to protect ourselves from the financial lava flowing our way.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 15:00