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Vance 'Skeptical' That Iran Closed Hormuz Strait Again, Pentagon Declares Safe Passage Remains 'Intact Today' Summary

• Vance & CENTCOM push back against reports of Hormuz 'closure' by Iranians. 
• Iran's Ghalibaf, Araghchi en route to US Talks in Switzerland, IRIB reports. Also Witkoff-headed US delegation still expected.
• Iran declares Strait 'closed' again over US failing to reign in Israeli action in Lebanon.
• Rising death toll in Lebanon, after over 50 new rockets fired on Israeli positions by Hezbollah. 

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 8% · No 93%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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Iran Closes Strait Again? Vance & CENTCOM Address the Claims

Vice President JD Vance has newly told Fox News that he's 'skeptical' of the morning reports and claims that the Iranians once again 'closed' the Strait of Hormuz. Watch:

FOX & FRIENDS: The Journal is reporting that the remnants of the Iranian navy are turning ships back in the Strait of Hormuz. Is that a violation of the MOU?

JD VANCE: I'm skeptical of that reporting, or at least of some of the conclusions that could drawn from it. We're not… pic.twitter.com/D4iWxq769p

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 20, 2026

US Central Command is also trying to portray that all is well. It issued this statement after the Iranians announced it closed the vital oil transit waterway:

Commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased June 20 as U.S. forces continued operating in the general area to support freedom of navigation. Safe passage through the international waterway remained intact today as 55 merchant ships transited, moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets.

The Joint Maritime Information Center issued an advisory this week affirming safe passage for all vessels along a designated route that is free of arbitrary requirement claims or impediments.

The Pentagon says it is remaining vigilant with regional forces on high alert. Overall, it seems the White House is keep to at least see its delegation get in the same room with the Iranians in Switzerland. This will certainly be a real start in terms of face-to-face engagement, after the MoU was remotely signed by each side.

Iran says Hormuz Strait Closed Again

As has become the 'norm' after well over 100 days of war - which some pundits have been calling the "third Gulf war" - there are deeply conflicting headlines emerging Saturday. On the one hand, diplomacy based in Switzerland is said to be in motion, with a potential top level Trump delegation (led by Witkoff and to be joined later by Kushner reportedly/allegedly) - but fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in south Lebanon still rages, with the death toll climbing, and also with Hezbollah rockets still landing against IDF positions as well as in northern Israel.

Will the US and Iranian sides actually meet in Europe for the 'technical' side of further talks toward final peace? Saturday has seen reports of Iran having again 'closed' the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israeli aggression in Lebanon, after Tehran has insisted that the tenuous freshly signed MoU included a Lebanon ceasefire and peace. The latest newswires out of Iranian state media:

• IRAN SAYS HORMUZ TO CLOSE, CITING CEASEFIRE VIOLATION: TASNIM
• IRAN SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED: TASNIM
• IRAN'S IRGC NAVY SAYS HORMUZ STRAIT CLOSED TO ALL VESSELS: FARS
• *VESSELS WARNED TO AVOID STRAIT OF HORMUZ OVER SECURITY: FARS

VP Vance Expected in Switzerland, But He's Ambiguous in FOX Appearance

Vance expected in Switzerland, reports Axios on Saturday:

🇺🇸🇮🇷Trump envoys arrive in Switzerland for Iran talks planned for Sunday. Vice President Vance could travel to Switzerland today or tomorrow. My story on @axios https://t.co/suNH9rkVk9

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 20, 2026

And yet, some of the same state sources have been saying that an Iranian delegation will travel to Switzerland where it will seek to hold Washington to its commitments. 

“In Switzerland, we intend to press for the fulfilment of the other side’s commitments and clarify how they plan to act on their obligations,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, according to Fars, also as cited in Al Jazeera.

Per the same report Saturday mid-morning (US time): "The delegation will leave for Switzerland in a few minutes, Mehr news agency also reported. The spokesperson also said that if the US refuses to implement its commitments, Iran will respond with necessary measures."

Vance non-committal in Saturday FOX interview:

FOX & FRIENDS: Do you have any immediate plans to join Jared and Steve?

JD VANCE: It's always a delicate coordination dance with the diplomatic protocols. I've gotta be honest with you -- I don't really understand these things pic.twitter.com/tFr2QZOjQC

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 20, 2026

So things remain very fluid, and could implode at any moment. The Wall Street Journal adds some fresh details as follows:

Iranian security officials said they had closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing what they said was the U.S. failure to stop the fighting in Lebanon as required under the agreement signed earlier this week by President Trump.

The announcement by Iran’s joint military command came as clashes between Israel and Hezbollah flared again in Lebanon on Saturday, just hours after the two sides agreed to a renewed ceasefire. It undid for now the main achievement of the deal, which was to set the stage for reopening a waterway vital to world energy markets.

Even before Iran’s announcement, however, the recovery of traffic through the strait had been halting. Iran had imposed new procedures, including a demand that ships register to cross two days in advance, and wary shipowners were monitoring the still uncertain environment in the waterway.

Widening Split Between US & Israel

Since the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding was signed days ago it's increasingly obvious there's been a widening split between Washington and it's closest Middle East ally Israel over the terms of the deal. The political interests between the Trump administration and Israel, which have been typically lock-step, have increasingly diverged on the question of the Iran peace and terms of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Ground zero for this divergence has remained south Lebanon, where the overnight the death toll from fighting - and especially from Israeli air raids - have risen.

Lebanon's civil defense agency has announced that Israeli attacks on the southern Nabatieh district have killed 16 people and wounded 12 others. The significant death toll comes a mere day after the latest Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was announced.

Still, Al Jazeera is on Saturday confirming that "the wheels of diplomacy" appear to be "back in motion" after the delay to the technical talks from Friday. "Pakistan and Qatar – mediators – are holding a series of meetings in Switzerland, Iran and Egypt and according to Al Jazeera’s team on the ground," the publication writes. Top American negotiators are reportedly on the way to Europe.

via Reuters

Iran too is optimistic, while calling out certain Israeli hardliner politicians for seeking to sabotage peace. State media is hitting this theme hard, and naturally Tehran is going to seek to drive a deep and permanent wedge between the Trump and Netanyahu administrations. 

Iran: 'Ready to Move Forward'

Iran's deputy foreign minister has said the Islamic Republic is "ready to move forward" on diplomacy with Washington, and the big elephant in the room is that "the United States must ensure Israel abides by the terms of the deal to end the war" - according to Al Jazeera.

As a reminder, President Trump appears in the mood to play nice with Iran while bringing the (very rare) pressure on Netanyahu. However, Trump himself is facing immense rising pressure from outraged pro-US hawks at home:

Donald ⁠Trump told NBC News ⁠in a phone ⁠interview that ​he spoke with Israel ⁠on Friday and asked them to ⁠agree to ​a ‌ceasefire ‌with Hezbollah.

“‘You just gotta calm down sometimes and use your head,’” Trump ‌was quoted as telling Israel.

Trump declined ​to specify ​whether ​he spoke ​with ‌Benjamin ​Netanyahu directly. A senior US official earlier confirmed the ceasefire to Reuters, though Israeli attacks continue across Lebanon.

Israeli Objections & Overnight Carnage in Lebanon

One of the key elements of the MoU the hawks vehemently object to is the creation of a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran. But in terms of the main aspect which could derail ongoing negotiations altogether is that the US committed that it and its allies (read: Israel and the Lebanese government) will initiate the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." This is a major concession by the US to the Iranian side.

❗️FOUR IDF soldiers killed after Hezbollah struck IDF tank in southern Lebanon

Including 52nd Battalion Commander who assumed command only days earlier after his predecessor was seriously wounded

Hours later, five more wounded, including SERIOUSLY, in drone strike in same area pic.twitter.com/RQBjyKoxme

— RT (@RT_com) June 19, 2026

But Israel has much more than these things to complain about, as it continues to lose troops in recent Hezbollah attacks:

Israel immediately responded to that agreement by pounding Lebanon, killing at least 47 people on Friday, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Four Israeli soldiers were also killed overnight [Friday] by the armed Lebanese group, Hezbollah, prompting Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to say that “all of Lebanon must burn”.

Vice President JD Vance's own recent remarks putting these Israeli officials in their place has been unprecedented spectacle to behold. The "special relationship" remains tenuous, at least in terms of weighing the current heated rhetoric and atmosphere.

But again, Israel can point to Hezbollah aggression, with Times of Israel (TOI) reporting the latest figures as follows:

The Israeli military says it is striking Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon in response to overnight projectile launches at troops in south Lebanon by the Iran-backed terror group, despite a ceasefire announced a day earlier.

⚡️Consequences of an Israeli airstrike (3 bombs) on a building complex in Southern Lebanon

Multiple casualties. pic.twitter.com/CF4riEgu3E

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 20, 2026

"Overnight, the Hezbollah terrorist organization launched more than 50 projectiles at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. Following the attacks, the IDF has been striking Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon," an Israeli military official said was cited in TOI as saying.

Meanwhile, CNN also confirms that diplomacy is in "motion", writing: "US envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Switzerland for technical talks with Iran, a US official said, with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner also expected to join. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan’s interior minister has arrived in Iran for talks with senior Iranian officials as part of efforts to encourage them to Switzerland."

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/21/2026 - 05:44

Are iPhones Dialing Up The Birth Dearth?

Authored by Thaddeus G. McCotter via American Greatness,

When I call you up, your line’s engaged

I have had enough, so act your age

We have lost the time that was so hard to find

And I will lose my mind

If you won’t see me . . .

Time after time

You refuse to even listen

I wouldn’t mind

If I knew what I was missing

—The Beatles, “You Won’t See Me”

As one heads into senescence, the milestones begin to fade in the rearview mirror. Yet every now and again, something jars the memory to refocus your recognition of such milestones and on how time has truly flown.

Recently, I was reminded that nearly an entire generation of Americans has been born after the introduction of the iPhone in 2007. As a Gen Xer born before the introduction of the answering machine, I felt the weight of my sixty years, along with a gnawing anxiety about the future.

No, not because I won’t be around all that much longer. Despite the myths of the ubiquitous cult of youth promoted by our callow commercial culture, the increasing aches and pains accompanying my journey into old age are an insistent reminder that no one lives forever. Rather, my concern is how few Americans will be born to replace me and the other older members of our aging nation.

As reported by Elise Winland in Zeale News, a new study suggests the 2007 introduction of the iPhone has played a significant role in the declining U.S. fertility rate.

Written by Caitlin K. Myers and Ezekiel Hooper and issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the title of the working paper says it all: “Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly.”

The study’s methodology is straightforward, as are its implications for our nation. As succinctly explained by Ms. Winland: “The paper draws on a natural experiment created by Apple’s exclusive deal with AT&T. When the iPhone launched in June 2007, it was available only on AT&T’s network until February 2011, giving researchers a way to compare areas with different levels of early iPhone access.”

While this deal was fortuitous for the researchers, the consequences were disastrous for the nation’s birth rate. According to Myers and Hooper:

The diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births among women under 30 while suppressing the rise in births among older women. Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44. National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.

Importantly, Myers and Hooper are not asserting that the iPhone is the sole cause of the steep decline in America’s birth rate, which they cite as having dropped by 22 percent since 2007, again, the year of the iPhone’s introduction. For, as Winland notes, the researchers believe the nation’s record low birth rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44 “cannot be fully explained by the common explanations such as the Great Recession, increased access to contraception, rising housing and childcare costs, and delayed marriage.”

The researchers do argue that “studies imply that access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5–8.0% at ages 15–19 and 3.2–6.6% at ages 20–24, with statistically significant but smaller declines among older cohorts.” (It is worth noting that the iPhone had a salubrious impact on reducing teen pregnancies; however, the enduring detrimental effects stemming from the loss of social interaction and its accompanying skills will be carried into the future by today’s teens.)

Anyone with a cursory acquaintance with Marshall McLuhan’s work will see his dictum, “the medium is the message,” at work here. Every new technology affects human beings, both in how they interact with that technology and in how they subsequently interact—or fail to interact—with other people by using it.

The math—specifically subtraction—is elementary: by spending more time in your virtual cocoon, you have less time for interacting with real human beings. One must therefore consider how much of the iPhone’s contribution to the birth dearth stems from the technology’s unconscious effects on its users. Indeed, unlike, say, birth control or a career choice, the iPhone is not being used deliberately to delay or prevent pregnancy. Rather, the birth dearth is exacerbated because the iPhone user is more rapt with the device and the stimulation it provides than by another person. After all, there are only so many hours in the day—and night.

Meanwhile, the birth rate continues its decline. It is an indicator of national health. An optimistic, future-oriented nation has at least a replacement birth rate, if not a growing one. A declining nation has a declining birth rate. In America today, the atomization of our citizenry and its accompanying anomie continue apace, as algorithmically personalized prison cells push us out of gen pop and into solitary confinement. Thus does the insidious, circular logic of the siren song of decline become the mantra: life is unfair, inequitable, and horrible, so it is better—in fact, virtuous—not to bring a new life into this morass of meaninglessness.

The result of this is the declining birth rate found in both the United States and Europe, where the apostles of postmodernism hold sway, filling the perceived vacuity of modernity with a creed that holds the most “tolerant” belief is to believe in nothing—including one’s inherited civilization. A postmodern generation taught to loathe itself does not care to procreate. For what better way to reject the meaningless future than by making sure there are no succeeding generations to perpetuate it?

While my bachelor’s degree is only in political science, and despite all the technological advances during my lifetime—including the internet, social media, AI, and the answering machine—I nonetheless feel confident in declaring, “You can only make a baby in the real world.”

A healthy nation prizes real life over a virtual world. It doesn’t have a birth dearth. And I’m inclined to believe it has more answering machines—or at least call waiting—and fewer smartphones.

I had to interrupt and stop this conversation

Your voice across the line gives me a strange sensation

I’d like to talk when I can show you my affection

Oh, I can’t control myself . . .

Don’t leave me hanging on the telephone

Hang up and run to me

Oh, hang up and run to me.

—Blondie, “Hanging on the Telephone”

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 23:20

'Syria & Turkey Represent Bigger Threat To Israel Than Iran': Israeli Minister

Via The Cradle

Late this week Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli declared in an interview with Israeli Army Radio that Tel Aviv "will be at war with Syria sooner or later," highlighting that the alliance between Damascus and Turkey poses a "strategic challenge" to his country.

The Likud official said, "There is no way that a jihadist regime rooted in ISIS and Al-Qaeda, whose aspiration is the unification of Jerusalem, can live in peace alongside the State of Israel."

In a separate interview with Kol Barama, a prominent Israeli ultra-Orthodox radio station, Chikli identified Syria as part of a "radical Sunni axis of evil" involving Qatar, Turkiye, and Pakistan, labeling it "far more troubling" than Iran, and claimed that these nations shaped a recent US–Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) intended to end regional hostilities.

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed the memorandum as an “important development,” Chikli joined other Likud lawmakers in branding Turkiye an “enemy state.” 

He claimed that Turkiye holds “very clear ambitions” compromising Israeli interests, saying that Ankara and Damascus are “ten thousand times more concerning than Iran.”

Following the ousting of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, the Israeli military continues to occupy Syrian land and destroy military equipment, using the new government as a pretext for escalation and territorial expansion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now demands total demilitarization from south Damascus to the 1973 demarcation line. Since December 2024, Israeli military violations in southern Syria have escalated beyond periodic airstrikes to a sustained campaign involving ground incursions, raids, and the establishment of checkpoints. 

According to a daily tracker launched by Levant24, Israeli forces have carried out approximately 1,128 ground incursions and 1,055 airstrikes, advancing more than 20 kilometers beyond the occupied Golan Heights. These actions have resulted in over 197 detentions and at least 36 fatalities.

This expansion also includes property destruction and the systematic mapping of military positions, reflecting a broader pattern of activity that extends deep into Syrian territory.

Self-appointed Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa is reportedly resisting intense pressure from the US to launch a military incursion into Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. 

Despite a framework proposed by US President Donald Trump for the Syrian military to lead this offensive, Sharaa remained “unprepared and unwilling,” according to  Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN). He cited concerns that such an attack would damage his regional legitimacy by appearing to serve Israeli interests, especially while Israel continues to occupy Syrian territory. 

Although US envoy Tom Barrack has threatened Lebanon with a Syrian assault to dismantle Hezbollah, Sharaa has dismissed the reports as “rumors,” asserting his goal is to end the war rather than expand it. 

Israeli War Minister Israel Katz told Channel 14 that “We do not need Julani. Julani, the terrorist in a suit, does not need to come and help us. We know Syria well. He is not going to help us in Lebanon.” He added that Sharaa “should stay in Syria, not interfere with us, and not make us interfere with him.” 

“Do you know what really hurts the jihadists?” Katz said, going on to assert that killing them would not hurt them as much as “when you take territory from them and destroy their homes – and that's what we did.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 22:45

In Defense Of Entrepreneurs

By Matthew J. Brouillette via RealClearPennsylvania,

Like clockwork, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) is again finding America's billionaires guilty by reason of existence, arguing the Elon Musks and Jeff Bezos of the world must donate more to the government via higher taxes.

Her premise is that the wealthy don't pay their "fair share," leaving the non-wealthy to suffer in a zero-sum game.

The problem is that Warren, and the many others in Congress like her, aren't simply attacking the wealthy; they are attacking the foundation of America's greatness - entrepreneurs.

Remember, "entrepreneurs" founded this great nation almost 250 years ago when they pledged their lives, the fortunes, and their sacred honor. Many of them were wealthy because they produced goods or services their fellow colonists voluntarily purchased.

Consider, for a moment, some of the wealthiest people in America: Elon Musk, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos, Larry Ellison, Michael Dell, and Mark Zuckerberg. Beyond eye-popping net worths, they, too, are entrepreneurs who have provided goods and services consumers voluntarily use every day.

And like entrepreneurs throughout American history, they have delivered transformative innovations employed not only across America but throughout the world.

Think about it: Did you Google something today? Have you ordered from Amazon recently? Did you log onto Instagram? The answer to at least one of these questions is probably, "Yes."

And what of the millions of people employed by Google, Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX, Meta, Oracle, and other companies led by America's most wealthy? Do their families benefit from the career opportunities created by these entrepreneurs? Of course they do.

These benefits can even turn into windfalls. For example, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that once SpaceX goes public, thousands of current and former employees - from engineers to baristas - will reap the sizeable reward.

Benefitting the greater good is not the purview only of ultra wealthy entrepreneurs. Just look at entrepreneurs in your community. The owner of your favorite restaurant. Or your barber. Or plumber.

You've undoubtedly relied on these folks for either critical or quality-of-life services. And their entrepreneurship has also created jobs and sustained families. In fact, these types of local businesses are often considered the engines of America's Main Street economy - making our communities thrive, giving our neighborhoods unique character, and improving all of our lives.

And this doesn't even touch on the philanthropic contributions entrepreneurs make. Who often sponsors local community events that raise funds for non-profit causes? The businesses founded and run by entrepreneurs. This isn't coincidental.

A report by Fidelity Charitable on entrepreneurs as philanthropists found, "On average, the median annual gift for entrepreneurs is 50% higher than non-entrepreneurs." Further, "Two-thirds of entrepreneurs volunteer two or more hours a month, compared with just more than half of non-entrepreneurs."

You may wonder what this has to do with Ms. Warren's white whale of wealth taxes.

In a word, everything.

For the difference between these local entrepreneurs and the targets of Warren's ire is not one of type but simply degree.

The spirit of risk taking, innovation, ingenuity, and philanthropy characterizes entrepreneurs both famous and not.

And it shouldn't need repeating - but it does - that the wealthy already pay a lion's share of taxes, with the top 10% of earners paying more than 70% of all federal personal income taxes.

As we celebrate America's 250th birthday, it only makes sense to recognize that entrepreneurs founded and built our great country into what we are today. And entrepreneurs will help us keep it.

Rather than demonizing entrepreneurs by arguing that shouldering 70% of taxes isn't enough, we should acknowledge them and thank them for making America the leading innovator of the world - and for doing far more than their "fair share" to improve the lives and livelihoods of individuals of families across America.

Matthew J. Brouillette is president and CEO of Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs and the author of You GOTTA win Pennsylvania! A call to entrepreneurs to save America.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 22:10

Trump Reiterates Ukraine War Would Never Have Started If Russia Remained In G8, Blasts Obama

This isn't the first time that President Trump has said something like this, but he's newly explained in a wide-ranging fresh interview with Axios published Friday his view that the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine likely would likely have been averted if Russia had remained a member of the then-Group of Eight (G8).

"You probably wouldn't have the war with Russia and Ukraine if they did," Trump told the publication, referring to the decision to expel Moscow, making the group the G7.

The forum "would have been much better" had it maintained its original structure, with Russia included. He laid ultimate blame in the fresh remarks on former President Barack Obama. 

It was during the Obama administration, in 2014, that Washington pushed allies to expel Russia from the group of leading economies over its takeover of Crimea through a 'popular referendum'.

Trump this week attended G7 Summit held in Evian-les-Bains, France. "They should have kept the G8. You probably wouldn't have the war with Russia and Ukraine if they did, but Obama didn’t want Putin there," Trump said.

via Associated Press

"It used to be the G8. (It) would have been much better if they kept that that way," he added. Again, this is not the first time he's articulated this view:

Trump has expressed this position before — in June 2025, he made a similar statement, blaming Obama and former Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau for Russia’s exclusion from the G8.

He's long attacked Biden and the Democrats for setting the conditions for the war to start. But beginning a year ago he also started basically blaming everyone - from Zelensky to Putin to Biden.

"That’s a war that should have never been allowed to start and Biden could have stopped it and Zelensky could have stopped it and Putin should have never started it," Trump said last year. "Everybody is to blame."

Trump added at the time: "If Biden were competent and if Zelensky were competent, and I don’t know that he is, we had a rough session with this guy — he just kept asking for more and more."

As for Putin, he has seemed to welcome this repeat rhetoric from Trump stating that Russia should belong to the G7/G8. Without doubt, Moscow would welcome an invitation back in.

Among Russia's conditions for final peace settlement in Ukraine, a prospect which still seems a long way off, would be the lifting of US and EU sanctions, and readmittance to the global economy.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 21:35

How It Took Nine Months To Remove One Illegal Alien From Voter Rolls

Submitted by Maryland Freedom Caucus,

Nine months after the Maryland Freedom Caucus exposed that a noncitizen with a final order of deportation had been registered to vote in Maryland, Ian Roberts has finally—and quietly—been removed from the state's active voter registration list.

There was no press conference. No public announcement. No admission that anything had gone wrong.

The removal comes only after Roberts was convicted and sentenced on federal charges related to falsely claiming U.S. citizenship. For years, Roberts remained an active voter in Maryland despite being an illegal alien from Guyana who overstayed his student visa and despite having left the state more than a decade ago.

🗳️ The Other Maryland Man finally removed from Maryland Voter Registration list.

9 months after it was discovered that a superintendent of a large school district was not only a noncitizen with a final deportation order, but also had been illicitly registered to vote in… pic.twitter.com/xqKTCskJQR

— Maryland Freedom Caucus (@MDFreedomCaucus) June 19, 2026

The timing raises an obvious question: if a criminal conviction was necessary before election officials would finally remove Roberts from the voter rolls, how many other ineligible registrations remain untouched?

The Roberts case placed Maryland into national news after the Maryland Freedom Caucus uncovered evidence that he was not only unlawfully present in the United States, but had also been registered to vote in Maryland.

🚨 I have confirmed from Maryland Freedom Caucus Chairman, @MattMorgan29A (R) that Des Moines Superintendent Ian Roberts has been a registered voter in Maryland since 2012.

Roberts is an illegal alien.@elonmusk also agrees, it’s time to clean the voter rolls. pic.twitter.com/4encSIQwfk

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 29, 2025

Roberts was hardly an obscure figure. He served as superintendent of a large Iowa school district while simultaneously living under a final order of deportation. Yet somehow, despite years of scrutiny surrounding his immigration status, Maryland's voter registration system never flagged him.

BREAKING: Another Maryland Man controversy!

Have you heard the story of Ian Andre Roberts, the Superintendent for Des Moines Public Schools? He was arrested late last week for a standing deportation order. Turns out, he is actively registered to vote in Maryland, despite being… pic.twitter.com/T7XlAobQ6O

— Maryland Freedom Caucus (@MDFreedomCaucus) September 29, 2025

The most damning revelation emerged when unredacted voter registration applications obtained through pressure from two watchdog groups showed that Roberts had personally affirmed under penalty of perjury that he was a United States citizen.

That detail shattered one of the most common defenses offered by election officials whenever noncitizen registrations are discovered. For months, Maryland State Board of Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis and other defenders of the system insisted that such registrations were accidental byproducts of bureaucratic processes.

The documents showed otherwise.

Roberts did not merely appear on the rolls due to an administrative error. He falsely claimed citizenship on a sworn government form. Nevertheless, he remained an active registered voter for years and continued receiving election mailings and ballots.

But here’s the problem:
If Roberts never voted, his registration should have been canceled long ago for inactivity.
It wasn’t. pic.twitter.com/qwBAb7zXC0

— Maryland Freedom Caucus (@MDFreedomCaucus) January 8, 2026

The broader significance of the case extends well beyond one individual.

Maryland officials routinely insist that noncitizen voting is virtually nonexistent and that existing safeguards are sufficient. Yet the Roberts case demonstrates how difficult it can be to remove even the most obvious ineligible registrant.

Here was a man who had not lived in Maryland in more than ten years. A man under a final order of deportation. A man who falsely claimed citizenship on voter registration forms. A man whose case received national media attention.

And still it took months of public pressure, investigative work, federal involvement, and ultimately a criminal conviction before Maryland election officials finally acted.

If this is how difficult it is to remove one of the most obvious examples imaginable, voters are left wondering how many less obvious cases remain hidden within the rolls.

🚨🚨🚨 AAF has learned that either @PahlaviReza, who wants to be Shah of Iran…

1) is a U.S. Citizen

OR

2) voted illegally in a U.S. election

RECEIPTS👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/eigi6fL3sp

— American Accountability Foundation (@Theswampmonitor) April 16, 2026

The Maryland Freedom Caucus responded to the Roberts case by introducing the Secure the Vote Act of 2026, legislation designed to require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration, strengthen voter identification requirements, and prevent future noncitizen registrations.

Predictably, the legislation was never allowed to advance. Like countless election-integrity measures before it, it was quietly buried in committee by legislative leadership unwilling to acknowledge the problem.

That leaves Congress with an increasingly important responsibility.

The SAVE America Act would establish nationwide citizenship verification requirements and close loopholes that currently allow noncitizens to access voter registration systems through self-attestation alone. While states like Maryland continue resisting reforms, federal action may be the only realistic path forward.

The Roberts case should serve as a warning.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 21:00

China's Caribbean Listening Post? Satellite Imagery Shows Cuba Spy Base Completed

The Center for Strategic and International Studies published a report using geospatial intelligence to show that construction of a circularly disposed antenna array in Cuba has been completed.

CSIS states the circularly disposed antenna array in Cuba, just 240 miles miles from Miami, Florida, could be used to monitor or intercept radio transmissions across a wide range of frequencies in the region.

The DC-based think tank added that the site may be linked to China and could be used to track sensitive U.S. military and communications activity across the Caribbean, the Gulf of America, and the southeastern U.S.

Here's a section of the report:

At an expansive SIGINT site in Bejucal, near Havana, recent satellite imagery shows construction work completed on a new large circularly disposed antenna array (CDAA).

Over the last two years, an antenna field at the northeast end of the facility has been converted from a linear antenna grid to a CDAA. Imagery published by CSIS in April 2025 captured ongoing groundwork to lay cables between the antennas and the central control facility. Construction now appears to be complete and the facility has very likely begun operations.

The array of 32 antennas (19 outer and 13 inner) is larger and likely more capable than any Cuban CDAA previously observed by CSIS. CDAAs are primarily used for high-frequency direction finding, which involves intercepting and geolocating incoming radio transmissions over a wide range of frequencies.

From Bejucal's location in Cuba's northwest, the CDAA could improve the ability of Cuban authorities—or potentially their foreign partners—to monitor sensitive U.S. activities in the Caribbean and across the southeastern seaboard. U.S. naval and air operations in the region have escalated amid the Trump administration's prioritization of the Western Hemisphere, increasing the potential value of monitoring U.S. movements in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

CSIS cited a congressional testimony in 2005 that pointed out China's activities in the Bejucal area:

The main Chinese electronic spy bases in Cuba are located to the northeast of Santiago de Cuba in the far east of the country and in the Bejucal area in the province of Havana, according to intelligence sources. The base of antennas in Santiago de Cuba is mainly dedicated to the capture of U.S. military satellite communications, meanwhile in Bejucal the Chinese have created a complex interception system of telephone communications. To disguise these activities, the official Chinese station, Radio China International is transmitting its programs from Havana to the United States and Latin America.

China's activity in the Western Hemisphere was recently uncovered by a Select Committee’s investigation that found Beijing developed "an extensive network of dual-use space ground stations and telescopes across Latin America and uses this network to collect intelligence and boost the PLA's warfighting capacity," adding, "The investigation found at least eleven China-linked space facilities established across Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, and Brazil."

The Trump administration's campaign to purge China's influence from the Western Hemisphere has intensified this year as part of a broader U.S. effort to reorder the political map of the Americas. After the collapse of the socialist Maduro regime in Venezuela, the Trump administration is increasingly focused on Cuba, where decades of communist rule have hollowed out the island's economy and turned it into an island playground for U.S. adversaries. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 20:25

Democratic Socialist Mamdani Wants Democratic Party To Move Further Left Ahead Of 2028

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, issued one of his sharpest rebukes of the Democratic leadership Thursday night, saying that the party will lose the White House in 2028 if it does not fundamentally change course.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani (R) gestures on stage with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), during a Get Out The Vote rally ahead of New York's primary election in the Brooklyn borough of New York on June 18, 2026. Ryan Murphy/AP Photo

"For far too long, our party has seen its job as managing decline instead of delivering material change for working people," Mamdani told a crowd of thousands at Kings Theatre in Brooklyn, where he and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) headlined a get-out-the-vote rally for three progressive congressional candidates ahead of New York's June 23 primaries.

"That old way of thinking will lose on Tuesday. And frankly, it will lose in South Carolina and New Hampshire. It will fall short of 270 electoral votes," the Democrat said, referring to the two early primary states in the presidential nominating process. "The Democratic Party must change."

The 34-year-old is backing Darializa Avila Chevalier against Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) in New York's 13th Congressional District, former city Comptroller Brad Lander against Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) in the 10th, and Assembly Member Claire Valdez in the open 7th. Early voting is underway through June 21.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has endorsed Espaillat, telling Fox 5 New York on June 15 that he and Mamdani had "agreed to strongly disagree" over the race. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also endorsed Espaillat and campaigned alongside Goldman.

Mamdani described the primaries as the opening act of a longer national fight. "When does the race for 2028 begin?" he said. "It starts now. It starts on Tuesday."

He called on the party to offer "an affirmative agenda without apology" and to be "not just willing to stand up but also to stand for something" - drawing a contrast with what he called a politics that asks "working people to lower their expectations" and has "seen its job as explaining why we cannot instead of showing how we can."

Sanders, who introduced Mamdani at the rally, echoed the critique.

"The politics and the policies of the democratic establishment are no longer good enough," he said. "In this dangerous and unprecedented moment in American history, tinkering around the edges just won't work."

The Vermont independent has been traveling the country rallying voters for progressive candidates ahead of the midterms, pointing to a string of recent primary wins from New Jersey to Ohio to Maine - as has ally and New York progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), appearing on CNN Friday morning and responding to a clip of Mamdani's remarks, did not push back on his critique.

"Right now, the Democratic Party needs to be far less concerned about the Democratic Party and far more concerned with what people are struggling with," Booker said, calling for "big, bold solutions" and a coalition built around issues rather than party identity.

The DNC did not return The Epoch Times' request for comment by publication time.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks during a Get Out The Vote rally ahead of New York's primary election, Thursday, June 18, 2026, in the Brooklyn borough of New York. AP Photo/Ryan Murphy Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 19:50

"It's That Bad": Virginia Residents Battling Constant Noise From Data Center Generators

For more than a year, residents living next to the Vantage Data Centers facility have endured what they describe as a constant, high-pitched whining or ringing sound coming from the site's massive backup generators - the facility's only source of electricity.

An aerial view of the Vantage data center in Sterling, Va., which abuts a residential neighborhood. (NewsNation)

Unlike most data centers connected to the power grid, this facility runs entirely on its own on-site power plant. What residents were told would be temporary generator testing has become permanent operation.

"They're Just Never Turned Off"

Neighbor Hari Doue told News Nation that the community was initially assured the generators were only being tested for emergencies.

"We were told in the beginning that they test the generators to make sure they're working in case of an emergency. And then as the year and the months have gone on, they're just never turned off," Doue said. 

Another neighbor, Greg Pirio, has reached out to attorneys over the issue. He described the impact bluntly:

"You just hear this noise, it's just like, you just want to curse, you know, it's that bad."

Some residents have taken drastic steps to cope. One placed a mattress against their window to muffle the sound. Another installed plexiglass and began monitoring decibel levels with a sound meter. Concerns center on sleep disruption, stress, and falling property values.

Vantage Data Centers officials told NewsNation they continue to monitor noise levels and do not believe the sound exceeds Loudoun County's limits - which is 55 decibels in Residential and rural areas and 60 decibels in Mixed-use residential areas. Exceptions include generators operating during emergencies, at utility request, or during testing.

Virginia: America's Data Center Capital

Virginia has the largest concentration of data centers in the United States - 287 operational and 398 prospective, according to Pew Research. Loudoun County has become ground zero for this boom, often called "Data Center Alley."

The economic upside is significant. Data centers generate almost half of Loudoun County's property tax revenues, funding schools and public services while helping keep residential tax rates lower.

However, the facilities consumed approximately 26% of Virginia's total electricity in 2023, contributing to higher energy costs for all residents.

The situation in Sterling reflects a broader national tension. On June 18, 2026, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued show-cause orders requiring major grid operators to justify or update rules for connecting large energy users such as data centers.

President Trump has encouraged data center developers to build dedicated on-site power sources - the exact model used by Vantage in Sterling - to protect regular utility customers from rate hikes.

Residents near the Vantage site acknowledge the benefits of data centers, including jobs, tax revenue, and essential digital infrastructure, but strongly object to their placement directly next to homes.

"Do everything in your power to try and stop it from being built in an area that has any residential properties within 10 or 15 miles of it," said Doue. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 19:15

NY Pride Group Disbands After Drag Queen Founder - A School Board Member - Arrested On Child Sexting Charges

A New York LGBTQ+ advocacy group has canceled a scheduled pride parade and disbanded after its founder was arrested on child-sexting charges. 

Travis J. Longo, 46, of Cazenovia - a drag queen and a member of the Cazenovia School District Board of Education (of course), was arrested on Thursday and charged with four counts of endangering the welfare of a child after allegedly sending sexually explicit communications to a child under the age of 12. 

In a now-deleted Facebook post, the group Longo founded, Cazenova Pride Inc., announced that it is "canceling this year's Pride Festival and all associated events, and we are dissolving as an organization." 

"This decision follows serious criminal charges against Travis Longo, the founder of Cazenovia Pride Fest and a longtime figure in our organization," the post continues. "Travis Longo has no further affiliation with Cazenovia Pride Inc."

Longo, who reportedly performed as a drag queen under the name "Anita Buffem," was listed as a "hostess" at the first Pride festival in Cazenovia in 2021, which was organized by Pride Cazenovia, ">The Blaze reports.

Congratulations to Travis Barr-Longo aka Anita Buffem on being elected to the cazenovia School board and being the second drag performer in the US to be elected to public office. This is how we win and how we outrun in rural America. Shoutout to the @DemocratsNy! pic.twitter.com/AcH75ak5Ol

— The Outrun Coalition (@TheOutrunCo) June 19, 2024

"We are deeply sorry for the pain and disappointment this causes our community," the group's statement concludes. "The years of support, love, and solidarity you have shown us have meant everything. Thank you."

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 18:05

Banning Hospitals' 'Certain Contracts' Could Save Americans $45 Billion, Report Finds

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

A ban on certain contracts between hospital systems and health insurers could save Americans around $45 billion, according to a report from White House analysts released on June 18.

Lenox Health Greenwich Village Hospital in Manhattan, New York City, on Nov. 2, 2020. Chung I Ho/The Epoch Times

"The Council of Economic Advisers' findings reinforce that the Trump administration is delivering meaningful cost reductions for American patients," White House spokeswoman Allison Schuster told The Epoch Times by email June 19, noting the president's surgical approach to policy development that prioritizes fiscal discipline.

"By harnessing the use of free-market competition, President Trump has found a real solution to lowering costs instead of blindly throwing more taxpayer money at the problem."

Administration officials are exploring how best to manage hospital systems and insurers without relying on price controls or heavy-handed regulations.

At issue are three clauses, known as "anti-steering, anti-tiering, and all-or-nothing" contracts, which critics say shield healthcare providers from competition, thus increasing prices for consumers.

Anti-steering clauses block insurers from incentivizing or guiding clients toward cheaper options or providers, even when their data indicate clear savings potential.

Anti-tiering is used to stop insurers from categorizing hospital systems in less desirable benefit tiers that would reduce profit margins by forcing the providers to cover higher patient costs.

Bundled, also known as all-or-nothing, contracts require insurers to include all hospitals and physicians in a system, eliminating the option to negotiate independently.

Combined, the provisions result in more expensive healthcare, with higher rates, less efficiency, and limited insurance plan innovation due to reduced competition.

In markets where the clauses in question are widespread, a ban would lead to an 18 percent decline in hospital and physician prices, amounting to approximately $4,100 per inpatient admission, according to the report.

Premium prices would decline by about 7 percent, saving the average family about $1,800 annually, the report found, with aggregate reductions totaling about $45 billion and up to $63 billion.

Workers would benefit from higher take-home pay and lower out-of-pocket costs thanks to the reduced insurance costs. Small businesses and employers would also get relief with lower costs.

Analysts arrived at the numbers by calculating several variables, including the increased leverage insurers would gain while bargaining, with an expectation that prices would drop by about 8 percent as a result.

Allowing steering and tiering will improve patient management and shift care toward lower-cost providers, with transparencies helping reduce prices by about 4 percent, according to the report.

Free-market dynamics are expected to drive dynamic competition, with efficient, low-cost competitors helping further drive down costs by about 3 percent.

Proposed policies prioritize healthcare in rural areas, with bans aimed at lowering premiums while boosting independent rural hospitals.

Crackdowns are underway in the form of federal legal proceedings, with eyes on a national framework to codify the proposals.

"Thanks to the Trump administration's crackdown on anti-steering, anti-tiering, and all-or-nothing contracts by hospitals, everyday Americans are directly benefitting from lower premium contributions and higher take-home wages," Schuster said.

Congressional lawmakers are considering a similar course of action with the Healthy Competition for Better Care Act introduced by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), which would outlaw the anti-competition clauses.

Some states, including Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Texas, prohibit certain clauses, though coverage and enforcement vary.

The report referenced two recent civil antitrust actions brought by the Department of Justice, one against OhioHealth filed in February and settled June 18, with no admission of wrongdoing and the hospital forbidden from using anticompetitive clauses.

"Providing affordable healthcare to Americans is uncontroversial and this Department of Justice will not tolerate corporate prioritization of revenue in contravention of our antitrust laws," Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said in a statement.

A case against New York-Presbyterian Hospital, filed in March, is pending. Justice Department filings allege the hospital is insulated from price competition by contractual clauses, thus raising healthcare costs for New Yorkers.

A settlement with Sutter Health of Northern California from 2022 offers a successful precedent, according to the report, with the system agreeing to pay $575 million in fines and stop using the contractual clauses and succeeding in the aftermath of the agreement, later receiving recognition for its rural facilities.

Trump has repeatedly placed healthcare at the front of his second-term agenda, seeking to address the root causes of high medical costs, including with the release of TrumpRX.gov for prescription medicine at reduced prices.

He's taken his message on the road around the country in recent weeks, highlighting his actions and plans to further address Americans' healthcare cost burdens.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 17:30

Why CME Is Really Suing The CFTC Over Perps

Authored by David Christopher via Bankless.com,

CME wants Kalshi's Bitcoin perp reclassified as a swap, not banned. That distinction reveals what's actually at stake in the CFTC lawsuit.

Yesterday, CME, the country's dominant derivatives exchange, sued the CFTC over its recent approval of regulated crypto perpetual futures.

The exchange argues Kalshi's  Bitcoin perp should be treated as a swap, not a futures contract, a classification shift that would push the product into a more restrictive, institution-facing rulebook. The CFTC called the suit "frivolous" and said it looks forward to dismissing it.

We've known for some time that major exchanges like CME and ICE have grown uneasy about the rise of perpetuals, an unease already visible in their push to have regulators scrutinize  Hyperliquid over manipulation, sanctions evasion, anything they can find.

Why? Because regulators have finally opened a compliant path for Americans to trade an entirely new class of derivatives, one whose financial efficiency threatens the effectively monopolistic business model of these incumbents.

CME is scared of perps. No one should be scared of CME. https://t.co/l0ZHyqcpPk

— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) June 18, 2026 The Label Is the Business Model

CME's legal argument turns on a label.

If Kalshi's Bitcoin perp is a futures contract, it can trade on a regulated futures exchange, where regular U.S. users can access it. If it is a swap, it falls into a heavier rulebook built largely for institutional derivatives, making it harder to launch, harder to distribute, and functionally out of reach for most retail traders.

That distinction sounds technical, and it echoes the same fight playing out over prediction markets, but the effect here is simple: whether perps will be accessible to retail users, or reserved primarily for institutional actors.

CME's filing comes wrapped in safety language, but, as always, the motivation is financial. Perps threaten the part of CME's business built around expiration.

A normal futures contract expires. To hold the same exposure, a trader has to roll into a new contract before it does. CME collects another round of trading and clearing fees on every roll, and that churn feeds the market data business it sells on top.

A perpetual future doesn't expire. A trader holds the same position open indefinitely and settles periodic funding payments instead of rolling.

No roll means no recurring trade, and that breaks a rhythm CME's business is built on. The market already understands the threat. When regulators opened the door to regulated U.S. perps, shares of CME, Cboe, and ICE fell as investors priced in real competition.

Chair Selig has broadcast we are getting Hyperliquid and it will be before the election.

There will be US compliant front ends to access the giant liquidity pool on Hyperliquid.

The CME is as pissed as Nevada is about losing their monopoly to prediction markets.

Welcome to… https://t.co/IYFmfWZPwL

— Mister Todd (@pondermint) June 18, 2026 Why Perps Keep Gaining Ground

None of this makes perps harmless. They can involve leverage, liquidations, and funding costs that quietly eat into a position over time. CME CEO Terry Duffy is right that many retail traders don't fully understand those risks, and the venues offering perps should do the work to make them clear.

But blocking regulated U.S. perps does not make demand disappear. It pushes Americans back offshore, where they get fewer disclosures, weaker oversight, and less protection when something breaks.

That is why the better answer is to regulate the instrument clearly: leverage limits, margin standards, and liquidation transparency.

Crypto is where this starts because the markets are already mature. That makes Bitcoin perps the easiest place for regulators to begin. But given the demand we've seen with HIP-3, it won't be long before the model stretches to stocks, indices, and ETFs.

That is what makes CME's lawsuit so revealing. The exchange is asking for a reclassification, not a ban. You do not do that to a product you think you can kill. If you can kill it, you kill it. If you can't, you relocate it, cut it off to slow the bleed.

This is the history of crypto. A better technology emerges, users are drawn to its merits, incumbents call it dangerous, and the regulatory fight begins. Those fights have rarely decided whether the old model gets protected. They simply decide how long.

The Perpification has already begun, and all incumbents can hope to do is slow it down.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 16:20

Agri Markets Hit By "Aggressive Positioning Washout" But Supply Risks Linger

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has nearly reversed its US-Iran war gains in recent weeks, as sliding fertilizer and energy prices, along with an interim peace deal between Washington and Tehran, have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and initiated the normalization process.

Daryna Kovalska, a commodity strategist at BofA Global Research, told clients that, with agricultural markets having undergone an aggressive positioning washout, there is reason to believe the selloff in the corn market is overdone.

Kovalska pointed out that while improved US rains, easing geopolitical risks, and lower urea prices have stripped weather and war premiums from the market, her team believes risks have been deferred rather than eliminated. She remains constructive on corn, while trimming its 2026 upside target to $5.50 per bushel from $6.00.

More color here from her note titled "Corn market cools, but risks simmer beneath":

Ag markets hit by sharp spec long liquidation…

Agricultural markets have undergone an aggressive positioning washout, with net spec longs down 88% in three weeks. Corn hasn’t been spared: managed money flipped from decade-high longs to a net short by June 9, sending Dec 26 prices to a low of $4.4/bu.

…but we believe the corn selloff is overdone

Corn sentiment has softened, as geopolitical and weather risks have eased. But risks have not disappeared; rather, they look deferred and could still trigger a supply shock. We remain constructive, though, trimming our 2026 upside to $5.5/bu from $6.0/bu, supported by three key arguments.

1: Weather risk premium has been stripped out too early…

Improved US rains have eased weather risks in the corn market, but threats persist in certain states. Nebraska (12% of US production) remains in severe drought, with crop conditions 20% below average, while South Dakota and Kansas ratings (another 12% of output) are at risk of deteriorating without sustained rainfall.

…especially with an unprecedented El Nino unfolding

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to warn of an historic El Niño event. Brazil’s corn output could be hit hard, declining 10% yoy in 2026/27E. Iowa state also shows a pattern of sharply depleted soil moisture during analogues.

2: Brazil fertilizer supply remains a concern

Urea prices have eased, but despite a potential US-Iran deal to be signed on June 19, the Strait of Hormuz still needs to be de-mined and resume operations, with timing critical as Brazil’s peak dispatch window approaches. Substitution efforts remain insufficient, with nitrogen imports still down 15% yoy, putting first crop corn yields at risk of a 10% decline if Gulf urea shipments do not restart before the end of July. Phosphate constraints are compounding risks to the new crop, which could fall 10 mn t yoy.

3: US-China $17bn deal could upend the market

The White House expects China to buy at least $17bn of US ags annually in 2026 (pro- rated) and 2027-28. Mirroring Phase One, we think US corn exports to China could surge from zero in 2025 to 5.5 mn t in 2026 and 16 mn t thereafter. While purchases have yet to begin, implementation would materially tighten the US corn market.

Kovalska provides her team's view from macro to crude to softs:

Here's her price forecasts across softs:

With the war-risk premium evaporating from agricultural markets, Kovalska believes that lingering risks around weather, fertilizer flows, El Niño, and Chinese demand could still combine to tighten global supply and push prices higher again.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 15:45

DOJ Can Provide Biden's Conversations With Ghostwriter To Heritage Foundation, Judge Says

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Friday rejected former President Joe Biden's bid to prevent the conservative Heritage Foundation from receiving redacted transcripts and recordings of conversations he had with a ghostwriter for his 2017 memoir.

Former President Joe Biden speaks in Chicago on April 15, 2025. Nam Y. Huh/AP Photo

Although District Judge Dabney Friedrich delayed her own decision by three weeks later on Friday to allow for the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to rule on the matter, she said her order will remain in place because of the recording and transcripts' significant public interest.

"This case involves an unusually strong public interest in the release of law enforcement materials to outweigh the privacy interests protected by [the Freedom of Information Act's] exemptions," the judge said.

The Epoch Times attempted to reach out to Biden for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The Heritage Foundation's lawsuit originated in 2024. The group sought the transcripts and recordings from conversations the former president had with his ghostwriter, Mark Zwonitzer, to produce his memoir, "Promise Me Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship, and Purpose."

In January 2023, then-Attorney General Merrick Garland launched a probe into Biden's alleged keeping of classified documents at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania and at his private residence in Wilmington, Delaware.

Garland appointed former Special Counsel Robert Hur to investigate and potentially prosecute any federal crimes that arose - none did.

In Hur's February 2024 final report, he noted Biden's "diminished faculties and faulty memory" during an interview and in Biden's 2016 and 2017 recordings with Zwonitzer.

The former special counsel declined to prosecute Biden for his retention of classified documents because "the evidence [was] not sufficient to convict" and because "it would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict [Biden] - by then a former president well into his eighties - of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness."

Hur continued in his report, referring to some of Biden's recorded conversations with Zwonitzer as "painfully slow, with Mr. Biden struggling to remember events and straining at times to read and relay his own notebook entries."

The Heritage Foundation filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for all records that Hur relied on for his final report.

Under Biden, the Department of Justice (DOJ) declined to release the records, citing national security, privacy, and other FOIA exemptions.

The Heritage Foundation brought its FOIA lawsuit against the Biden DOJ in March 2024. In the two years since, legal proceedings have developed slowly.

The court stayed proceedings in September 2025 - now with the DOJ under President Donald Trump - after the agency said it would review the documents it was withholding.

In a May 8 filing, the DOJ said it "intends to disclose the written transcript and audio recordings at issue in this matter" to Congress, with redactions, but Biden moved for a preliminary injunction to prevent their release, which the federal judge denied on Friday.

Friedrich found in her decision that "in all, Biden is not likely to succeed" in his claims that his privacy interests outweigh the "significant public interest in the disclosure of the redacted Zwonitzer Materials."

"Biden offers little in the way of specific details about the types of harm he foresees, especially in light of related information already in the public domain," Friedrich wrote.

Friedrich further said that the ghostwriter records must be provided to the Heritage Foundation.

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals could make its decision on this case in the coming weeks while Friedrich's order is paused.

Biden has previously pushed back against claims that his cognitive abilities declined during his presidency.

"They are wrong, there is nothing to sustain that," the former president said during a May 2025 interview with ABC's "The View."

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 15:10

CIA Official Confirms Agency Flip-Flopped Over COVID-19 Origins Over Five-Day Period

Over the span of five days in 2021, the CIA abruptly changed its opinion on the origins of COVID-19 from a laboratory to neutral, a newly released document confirms. 

The seal of the Central Intelligence Agency at the entrance of the agency headquarters in McLean, Va., on Sept. 24, 2022. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Originally, CIA analysts concluded that COVID-19 likely came from a high-level laboratory in Wuhan, China located near where the first cases were detected in late 2019, senior CIA officer James Erdman III told lawmakers in May. Over the span of five days in 2021, however, Edman says the agency changed its stance to 'neutral.' 

Then in September of 2024 during a private briefing between intelligence officials and members of Congress, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH) inquired as to how the agency came to the conclusion that lab-origin vs. natural origin were about equal, according to yesterday's document release by outgoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard. 

In response, an unnamed CIA employee told Wenstrup that "he made the call to stop the shift to lab because [redacted] had come in the day before they were ready to publish which made them back off the call," according to a summary of the briefing compiled by an intelligence official. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, officials said in a declassified assessment based on information through August 2021 that only one agency - which was not the CIA, based on details since made public - favored a lab origin for COVID-19.

An updated assessment released in mid-2023 states that the CIA was unable to determine the origin of COVID-19 because both the lab and natural origin theories “rely on significant assumptions or face challenges with conflicting reporting.”

The CIA said in 2025 that a lab origin for COVID-19 was “more likely.” The Trump administration maintains that COVID-19 came from the lab in China.

More on Changes

A whistleblower in 2023 told members of Congress that the CIA team tasked with analyzing the origins of COVID-19 favored a lab origin, but that after the team was paid, it changed its position.

The CIA at the time denied paying analysts to reach specific conclusions.

Erdman, the senior CIA official, told a Senate panel in May that he was on a team investigating how intelligence agencies handled the COVID-19 pandemic and that the CIA declined to provide documents the team had requested that may have shed light on the change.

Erdman said that the team found the shift happened after Dr. Anthony Fauci, at the time the head of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases - which provided funding for the lab in Wuhan - briefed intelligence officials and suggested to officials that they talk to specific scientists, including researchers who wrote a paper with which Fauci and the institute’s head secretly assisted.

The paper, called “Proximal Origin,” purported to rule out a laboratory origin.

Wenstrup also asked intelligence officials in the 2024 briefing about a white paper that National Center for Medical Intelligence analysts compiled as a rebuttal to the “Proximal Origin.” The authors of the white paper felt their conclusions were ignored by intelligence officials, they informed Wenstrup.

A representative for the center was not prepared for the questioning, “which annoyed Wenstrup,” according to the briefing summary.

Fauci Briefed Intelligence Officials

Fauci briefed intelligence officials on June 4, 2021, and promoted the idea that COVID-19 had a natural origin, according to another briefing summary released by Gabbard.

Fauci “recommended that [intelligence officials] take a look at Tulane’s paper on two lineages from two separate markets,” the summary states. “To Dr. Fauci, this paper’s findings were a clear indication of natural origins of COVID-19.”

Fauci also “reminded the group that even for SARS, it took 12 years to make the link to a bat even though it only took 4 months to identify the natural reservoir” and that “we still haven’t identified source/origin of Ebola,” which is believed to have a natural origin, according to the summary.

Fauci, who has not responded to requests for comment, told lawmakers during a hearing in 2024 that he did not talk about viral research related to COVID-19 with intelligence officials.

“After the investigations began about COVID, I was briefed by intelligence agencies about possibilities of there being activities going on in different laboratories,” he said.

In another readout of the 2021 briefing, Fauci was said to have suggested intelligence officials connect with three scientists whose names were redacted.

“All three ... have advocated for features of the virus that they judge to be consistent with a natural origin,” the readout states.

An email disclosed that one of the scientists was Kristian Andersen, a Scripps Research researcher who coauthored the “Proximal Origin.”

Andersen said in private messages with coauthors that COVID-19 may have been engineered before the paper was published. He has said that further analysis of the virus altered his and others’ views.

“Dr. Fauci was the behind-the-scenes adviser who, alongside his hand-picked so-called experts, pushed the intelligence community to endorse a natural animal origin to hide his dangerous gain-of-function research that he funded using taxpayer dollars,” Gabbard said in a video statement posted to X on June 18.

“All of this in a deliberate attempt to cover up the truth and shift the blame and attention away from Fauci’s own actions.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 14:35

Swalwell Ordered By FEC To Return Campaign Contributions

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Former California congressman Eric Swalwell was ordered by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) June 15 to return all donations received during his bid for governor before dropping out of the race.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) during a news conference on the introduction of the Protection from Abusive Passengers Act at the U.S. Capitol Building, in Washington on April 6, 2022. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The agency charged with enforcing federal campaign finance laws threatened Swalwell with an audit or enforcement action if he fails to give back $30,075 in contributions that 16 donors made to his campaign committee, according to a letter sent to the former candidate.

"Failure to comply with the provisions of the Act may also result in an enforcement action against the committee."

In the letter, FEC Senior Campaign Finance Analyst Mary Seiler also stated Swalwell would not be eligible to request a time extension to give the money back.

According to the letter, the FEC requires candidates to return contributions to the donors if they drop out of a race. Swalwell did return some of the donations, but not all of them, according to the agency.

General election contributions can't be used to pay off primary debts or other obligations, the FEC noted.

All refunds were required to be made by July 20. If not, the commission may take further legal action in the case, the FEC said.

Swalwell and his attorney, Sara Azari, didn't return requests for comment about the FEC's demands.

Swalwell dropped out of the governor's race in April after multiple women stepped forward with sexual assault allegations, which he has denied. He also faced a U.S. House of Representatives ethics investigation over the accusations and a call from his party to resign.

The former congressman and candidate continues to face criminal and ethical investigations over the allegations.

His official state campaign finance disclosure information shows Swalwell collected donations from individuals and organizations until the day he resigned April 13. The last-minute donors included the United Food and Commercial Workers Western States Council Candidate PAC, California Dairies, real estate developer Jeff Worthe, and Greater Anesthesia Service and PAC - each of which gave him $39,200.

The last contribution made to Swalwell's campaign was nearly $460,000 on April 18 in "unitemized contributions," according to the state. The report doesn't specify who gave Swalwell the large donation or where it came from.

The California Secretary of State's office didn't immediately return a request for information about the contribution.

Swalwell's campaign finance report filed with the state shows he used campaign funds in the final weeks to pay his attorney Azari at least $313,000 and the Democratic political media firm KMM Strategies more than $600,000.

Filling Swalwell's Seat

Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive from Hayward, California, advanced June 16 in a special general election to fill Swalwell's vacant U.S. House seat.

Swalwell resigned from Congress in April, a day after ending his campaign for governor.

Wahab will move on to the Aug. 18 runoff to determine who will fill the remainder of Swalwell's term through January.

Democrat Melissa Hernandez, a transit director and former mayor of Dublin, California, was in second place June 19 but votes were still being counted.

The district includes East Bay cities of Fremont, Hayward, and Livermore, which heavily favors Democrats.

A regular primary was held June 2 to elect a new Congress member for the district to a full term. Wahab and Hernandez were the top two vote-getters.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 14:00

Russian Oil Refinery Over 1,200 Miles From Ukraine Attacked In Another War First

After this week's devasting Ukrainian drone attacks on a Moscow refinery which sent massive plumes of black smoke across the capital city skyline, it has become obvious that the Zelensky's government believes its last major card to play is escalation of its UAV attacks deep inside Russian territory.

This is once again on display as on Saturday Ukraine launched a drone attack targeting an oil refinery in Russia's Tyumen region for the first time since the the war. Significantly, Tyumen region is located some 2,000 kilometers (or 1,240 miles) from the front line in Ukraine.

Regional Governor Alexander Moor confirmed this first such attack on this region since the war's start. Moor claimed that Russian air defenses successfully defended against the attack on the the Tyumen oil refinery, one of Russia's largest. "An attack by unmanned aerial vehicles on the Tyumen refinery has been repelled. Emergency services specialists are working at the site where debris fell," he stated. "According to preliminary information, the plant was not damaged and employees have been evacuated," Moor announced on Telegram.

However, unverified but widely circulating footage and photographs suggest otherwise...

⚡️Columns of smoke rising from western Siberia after Ukrainian long-range drones targeted the Russian oil refinery "Tyumen" (Antipinsky) more than 2,000 kilometers from the border. pic.twitter.com/9VqVMJQzJl

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 20, 2026

Reuters, reporting on the attack, writes that "The Tyumen refinery, one of the country's ​most modern ​and ⁠complex, has a nominal capacity of around 8 million ​metric tons per year."

"It ​processes ⁠roughly 6 million tons of crude annually, producing about 0.5 million ⁠tons ​of gasoline and 2.5 ​million tons of diesel, according to industry estimates," the report also notes.

Ukrainian media, and some Russian Telegram channels are asserting that the refinery did suffer a hit:

"Thick smoke is visible above the Tyumen Oil Refinery - the former Antipinsky Oil Refinery - in Tyumen," reports the ASTRA Telegram channel, citing its analysis data, adding: "Earlier, the governor reported repelling a UAV attack on this plant and the absence of damage to the enterprise."

The fact that "thick smoke is visible above the Tyumen Oil Refinery in Tyumen," as stated, was established by an ASTRA OSINT analyst from a witness video.

"At the same time, local residents reported hearing at least two explosions in the Antipino microdistrict, where the Tyumen Oil Refinery is located, and also saw at least 10 fire trucks heading towards the plant," ASTRA points out.

This past Thursday saw what many are calling most brazen offensive of the war to date, after 200 Ukrainian suicide drones swarmed Gazprom's Moscow Refinery, inflicting heavy damage.

Oil refinery in Tyumen, file image

But rather than back down in the face of Moscow's new threats of "massive group strikes" on Ukraine, it seems Ukrainian forces are flexing with yet more attacks on Western Siberia. 

The Kremlin has long believed that Ukraine can't accomplish such sophisticated long-distance strikes on its own, but that it has had significant targeting help from US and Western allied intelligence.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 13:25

Trump Unveils New Air Force One Plane

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on June 19 unveiled the plane that will serve as the new Air Force One, a $400 million Boeing 747-8 luxury jet that was gifted to the United States by the Qatari government in 2025.

President Donald Trump delivers remarks after touring the newest aircraft in the presidential fleet at Andrews Air Force Base at Joint Base Andrews, Md., on June 19, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Trump stepped down from the plane inside a new hangar at Joint Base Andrews that was specially built for it. The plane is much larger than the previous jets that served as Air Force One, he said.

"The biggest difference is the difference in size, it's like virtually double the size. And actually, on a runway, it looks even more so," Trump said after shaking hands with Air Force officials.

Trump called the new plane "very unique."

"This is considered the world's most luxurious plane. When it was built, it was built at a level that will probably never be seen again," he said.

The aircraft will soon "commence its initial commissioning flights," which will be the jet's "final exam" before it's ready to transport the president, the Air Force said in a press release on Friday.

"The safety and security of the commander in chief is our highest priority," Air Force Secretary Troy Meink said in a statement.

"From the beginning, we meticulously evaluated every requirement to accelerate delivery while maintaining the high standards expected of the presidential mission."

The Air Force said the plane was painted in red, white, and blue and has received its "final government modifications" ahead of its use by the president and his staff.

Despite the jet being a gift from the Qatari government, preparing pilots and crews for the new plane came with a few costs, according to the Air Force.

The Pentagon leased an Atlas Air 747-8 in October 2025 to begin training pilots, before ultimately buying a different 747-8 from Lufthansa as a "full-time training asset for the entire crew complement," the Air Force said.

These efforts were undertaken to "neutralize potential technical hazards on the previously owned aircraft," according to the military.

"Many thought it could not be done, but the United States Air Force was able to execute and provide a secure, reliable airborne command post on an accelerated timeline," Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Ken Wilsbach said in a statement.

The new plane - which will serve as the temporary Air Force One while Boeing completes upgrades on two other jets - will replace a heavily modified Boeing 747-200B, one of three in the current fleet.

Some of the current fleet have been in service for more than 35 years.

Boeing's new fleet has incurred significant delays. Initially slated for a 2024 delivery, the aircraft are now not expected to be flight-ready until 2028.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 12:50

National Guard Stationed At Lincoln Reflecting Pool After Multiple Sabotage Attempts

It's difficult to find a single redeeming quality of liberal movements these days.  Maybe it's the abject pettiness, like children throwing a tantrum, that makes them hard to respect.  Or, maybe it's their violent emotional tendencies and complete lack of moral integrity.  They are willing to do anything to gain power, including lie, cheat, steal and even murder. 

At bottom, the unstable psychological drivers of leftists lead them to hate certain things that most normal people love, including the basic maintenance of respected national monuments.

One might think that the Trump Administration's repairs to the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool would be minor news, but the establishment media and progressive activists have turned the site repairs into a political battleground.  CNN has spent more time "investigating" the growth of green algae in the pool than they did on the massive Somalian fraud networks in Minneapolis.  Apparently, CNN isn't aware that algae grows naturally in standing water in a matter of 48 hours.  

Let me get this straight.

CNN has spent more energy investigating algae in the DC Reflecting Pool than they spent on:

- Billions in Minnesota Medicaid fraud
- California's third-world election counts
- Crimes by illegal aliens
- The COVID cover-up
- Federal investigations into… pic.twitter.com/JvhnptBE6r

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) June 18, 2026

Activists tired to make hay out of the green pool, claiming that Trump wasted $14 million on his renovations, even though the same thing happened after Barack Obama's $35 million renovation from 2010 to 2012, and those repairs didn't even solve the leakage problems.

When Trump responded to the algae issue with new "nano bubbler" treatments, leftists actually protested online and at the site against the removal of the green sludge.

Brace yourselves…

“Pro-algae” protest is taking place by the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in DC today.

You can't make this shit up! pic.twitter.com/eEp6F0Tkj5

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) June 19, 2026

In other words, they got mad that the treatments were working and they could no longer use the algae as an example of Trump failure.  They then turned to direct sabotage of the site.  Pieces of the floor of the reflecting pool have been torn out and the new sealant has been damaged. 

Looks like a clean cut… someone is vandalizing the reflecting pool pic.twitter.com/pVNVAO5Xpc

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) June 19, 2026

The numbers "8647" have been found scratched into the floor of the pool (a code for "murder Trump"). 

Multiple activists have reportedly been arrested, some caught in the process of trying to sabotage the monument.  Others have tried to interfere with maintenance workers cleaning the algae.  The National Guard and DC police are now stationed at the pool around the clock to prevent further damage.  

🚨 JUST IN — EXCLUSIVE: United States Park Police are investigating an “86 47” inscription on the sealant of the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool

We discovered writing just now while walking the edge of the pool.

This BS needs to end.

This comes as mobile SURVEILLANCE TOWERS… pic.twitter.com/z9aB9xf4wT

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 19, 2026

🚨 This just keeps getting worse.

Following the arrest of a man who cut out a big piece of the new American Flag Blue sealant at the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, another man was just arrested for grabbing a hose from female NPS workers clearing algae. pic.twitter.com/9uuAeSu1ka

— Alec Lace (@AlecLace) June 19, 2026

🚨 LAST NIGHT: US Park Police detained a suspicious man carrying a pitchfork and bucket around the Lincoln Memorial reflection pool

It’s unclear what the man was planning on doing with the pitchfork and bucket, but it’s certainly not a regular sight at the pool.

This came… https://t.co/yLGvmc2k3X pic.twitter.com/BN3epjPjOV

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 19, 2026

Yes, the trifling behavior is off the charts, but this has become the standard of discourse for the woke mob in 2026.  The worst part, though, is that the media has been running interference for the vandals, claiming that the repairs were "substandard" and that the water treatments are causing the sealant to peel.  In reality, the damages are being caused by a coordinated monkey wrenching campaign, and the liberal media is silent about it.    

The political left views monuments as symbolic targets; a way to attack western culture and demoralize the population without risking substantial jail time.  We have seen similar tactics used by climate change protesters across Europe and the US.  It's no coincidence that these activists choose iconic western treasures, such as classic artworks or an original copy of the Magna Carta, to vandalize.

Climate change is just the excuse, but the real goal is to incrementally deface anything symbolic of western civilization or national pride.  The same mentality applies to the sabotage of the Lincoln reflecting pool.  On top of that, the media takes the opportunity to paint Trump as incompetent or ineffective, turning something positive like monument restoration into an ugly propaganda affair.         

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 12:15

Trump Says He No Longer Views Anthropic As A National Security Threat

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said he no longer views the artificial intelligence (AI) giant Anthropic as a national security threat.

Illustration of Anthropic on June 18, 2026. Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas via AFP via Getty Images

"We have a situation with Anthropic, and we didn't like what they were doing, and so far I think they behaved very responsibly to our request," Trump told Axios's Marc Caputo in an interview that aired on June 19.

Caputo then asked Trump if he still viewed Anthropic and its CEO, Dario Amodei, as a threat to national security.

"Well, not now, but a week ago, maybe," Trump said, describing a meeting with Amodei at the G7 summit this week that influenced his change of heart.

"[Amodei] responded to us very quickly, because you know it's tremendous liability," Trump said. "You know, you can't play games with it. And he responded very responsibly."

The comments come one week after the Trump administration directed Anthropic to shut down foreign nationals' access to its new Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, which resulted in the company suspending access to all users entirely.

Issued on June 12, the directive from U.S. officials did not include specific details of potential security threats or concerns, according to Anthropic.

"Our understanding is that the government believes it has become aware of a method of bypassing, or 'jailbreaking' Fable 5," the company said in a statement at the time.

Trump told Axios that one of the company's competitors "turned Anthropic in" and raised alarms over the new models.

"They didn't like what [Anthropic was] doing. They were very concerned," he said.

Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

When Anthropic released Fable 5 to the general public on June 9, it said the model had exceeded the capabilities of "any model we've ever made generally available."

"It is state-of-the-art on nearly all tested benchmarks of AI capability, showing exceptional performance in software engineering, knowledge work, vision, scientific research, and many other areas," Anthropic stated.

As a "Mythos-class" model, Fable 5 is essentially as strong as Mythos, but with key safety features to make it safe for public use.

In the same announcement, Anthropic made Mythos 5 available to a small group of cyberdefenders and infrastructure providers. But after the company's decision to suspend access to all users on June 12, both models are currently unavailable.

Two days before Anthropic pulled access, Amodei wrote on X that he believes frontier models such as Mythos 5 "should face mandatory third-party testing for cyber, bio, and autonomy risks - with the power to block or revoke deployment of models that pose catastrophic risk."

Trump signed an executive order early this month asking AI firms to voluntarily submit their frontier models for government review 30 days before they're available to the general public.

At the time, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) criticized the order for only being "voluntary," saying that mandatory testing and review of frontier models is needed to "protect Americans."

Jacki Thrapp contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/20/2026 - 11:40