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CENTCOM Says Hormuz Naval Blockade Ends As Gulf Energy Flows Reboot

Summary:

• U.S. CENTCOM says U.S. Naval Blockade on Hormuz has been "Lifted" 

• Kuwait Petroleum CEO says Energy Production to Ramp in a Week 

• Iran Media says Southern Ports Traffic Begins Normalizing 

• Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia

The roughly two-month U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has officially ended, according to U.S. Central Command on X. This marks a major de-escalation in the Gulf region, as early signs point to the beginning of normalization of energy flows through the critical waterway by tankers.

"Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction," CENTCOM said. 

CENTCOM continued, "American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect."

Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 18, 2026

Hormuz flows are still muted.

Searching For Hormuz Normalization Signals 

Attention on institutional desks is shifting toward normalization signals at the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint.

At the time of writing at least 14 transits through the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Thursday June 18 - up from just 2 on the same day last week pic.twitter.com/qcWLrWewCy

— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) June 18, 2026

Earlier, we detailed how Saudi supertankers were beginning to exit the narrow waterway bound for Asia, while also noting that a massive backlog of tankers remains poised to exit the Persian Gulf as the reopening process gets underway.

Bloomberg, citing the semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency, reported that commercial vessel traffic at southern ports is moving toward normalization, with vessels carrying critical goods arriving and two tankers departing.

A separate Bloomberg story quoted Kuwait Petroleum Corp. CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, who said in an interview that Kuwaiti output is expected to exceed 2 million barrels a day within a week.

"We anticipate that we can exceed 2 million barrels a day within one week from now." Nawaf Al-Sabah.

He added, "And that pending availability of international commercial shipping, to reach Kuwaiti ports, we should be able to resume pre-war production within a matter of weeks."

At pre-conflict levels, Kuwait was producing 2.5 million barrels a day, but has since slumped to as low as half a million barrels a day.

Related:

• "Zero Hormuz Dependency": UAE Races To Rewire Energy Flows, Bypassing Chokepoint Chaos

Earlier, BofA Global Research's commodity team slashed its 2026E Brent forecast to $82/bbl from $ 93/bbl, citing a flood of crude set to hit the global market in the coming weeks and months as Hormuz normalization ramps up.

"The team has also cut its 2027E Brent forecast to US$70/bbl from US$78/bbl with a surplus of 1.1mb/d forecast during the year," BofA analysts said.

Hormuz Normalization Begins As Saudi Supertankers Exit And A Flood Of Persian Gulf Oil Heads For Asia

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.

There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit.  

The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive.

One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf.

Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal.

"There are certain practical steps that we believe are necessary before the vessels that have been stranded in the Gulf for the last 110 days can resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz," Sheila Cameron, CEO, and Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association, told Bloomberg in a statement.

Cameron continued, "The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers. The road to recovery in the Gulf will be a long and complicated one. It will take months for some sort of normality to return to international shipping with vessels in the wrong place and supply chains distorted."

Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."

On Thursday morning, Brent crude futures fell below $78, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. Traders are already pricing in the coming flood of seaborne crude.

Dubai and Murban crude futures curves have flipped into contango, Oman crude is trading at a discount to Dubai, and some diesel cargoes are trading below benchmark levels after commanding lofty premiums.

The first signs of normalization are already visible, following President Trump's acknowledgment on Wednesday at the G7 Summit that the interim peace deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz was signed as the U.S. was nearing the point of "running out of reserves in about four weeks."

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Struyven noted that even if the expected "normalization" occurs by the end of next month, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels ...

Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Peace Deal

• President Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran on Wednesday evening at the Palace of Versailles, following the G7 summit

• The deal is now in effect and was signed electronically by both presidents, according to US and Iranian officials

• The memorandum of understanding opens the way for 60 days of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and other issues

• Iran will receive sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oil immediately and gain access to a $300 billion economic development program

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US can reimpose an ironclad blockade if Iran doesn't comply with the deal

Strait of Hormuz Reopening

• Three Saudi supertankers carrying about six million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the first Saudi-owned crude tankers to cross since the war began

• A laden LNG carrier and an empty products tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz early Thursday, sailing along a route approved by Tehran for safe passages

• Qatar brought an empty LNG tanker back into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began on Thursday

• Goldman Sachs estimates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of pre-war levels, with normalization potentially completed by the end of next month

Economic Impact

• US gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time since March, down from a May peak above $4.50

Deal Criticism and Complications

• Trump faced pushback from Republicans who object to the deal and the billions of dollars set to flow to Tehran

• Trump brushed aside several red lines on Wednesday, suggesting Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles and access frozen funds

• Israel rejected a US request to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, citing continued presence of Hezbollah, threatening to complicate broader peace efforts

Iran Leadership Investigation

• The US Justice Department is conducting a probe into how Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei built a global investment portfolio with exposure to Wall Street banks, examining allegations of money laundering and corruption

Related Legal Developments

• A federal judge allowed the Justice Department to drop a criminal case against Turkish state-owned Halkbank on Wednesday for allegedly helping Iran evade US sanctions

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:20

Take-Two Shares Jump As 'Grand Theft Auto VI' Pre-Orders Open Next Week

Take-Two Interactive Software shares jumped early in the cash session after the company announced on X that pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will open next Thursday. The move is easing investor concerns that the highly anticipated game could face another delay, reinforcing expectations that Rockstar Games remains on track for its Nov. 19 launch date.

"Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers," Rockstar Games wrote on X. The gaming studio is a wholly owned subsidiary of Take-Two.

Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.

Check out the official cover art, also available as downloadable artwork at https://t.co/XPwC8URCQ4 pic.twitter.com/pRVXk4eyDQ

— Rockstar Games (@RockstarGames) June 18, 2026

The last major GTA release was GTA V, which launched on Sept. 17, 2013. Gamers have been waiting 13 years for a major GTA installment.

Rockstar has upset not just Take-Two investors but also GTA gamers on numerous occasions, indicating that its developers needed more time to finish the game, thereby delaying the launch. The launch date is set for Nov. 19.

Rockstar just gave us the best look yet at non-enterable buildings in GTA VI

It's not a straight up png like in GTA V and other open world games with skyscrapers but at the same time, it doesn't have anywhere near the detail as the rest of the game. What I'm really curious about… https://t.co/Q5ko9Gpawz pic.twitter.com/kVQTiGZ4VR

— Farzam (@farzam_plays) June 18, 2026

Take-Two shares are up nearly 6% in the cash session, though the stock has traded mostly sideways since peaking around $262 in October 2025.

Last month, we asked:

• Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Pitz noted, "We highlight that the game's price remains a key question, as the launch of preorders next Friday should confirm base game pricing. We will also closely monitor for any higher-priced SKUs that give players early access to the game. Reiterate our Outperform, Top Pick, and $280 target price."

According to Bloomberg data, 97% of the analyst coverage on TWWO is "Buy" rated with an average 12-month price target of $281.97.

For reference, GTA V sold about 225 million to 230 million copies worldwide.

There is already a report from Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang that console sales are increasing ahead of the GTA VI release.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 13:05

RFK Jr. Announces More Than $700 Million To Target Mental Illness, Homelessness

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration is going to spent more than $700 million on programs aimed at reducing drug addiction, homelessness, and mental illness, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on June 17.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Washington on May 18, 2026. Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images

The largest portion of the new funding, nearly $239 million, is going to a lifeline that people who are suicidal can call. Some $223 million is going to community behavioral health clinics. Nearly $100 million is being offered to communities that apply to the Safety Through Recovery, Engagement, and Evidence-based Treatment and Support (STREETS) Program, which provides services for homeless people who are addicted to drugs or have serious mental illness.

The other funds are going to programs targeting the prevention of, treatment for, and recovery from drugs, or programs that support mentally ill people.

"These investments will help move people from the streets into treatment and recovery, strengthen families, save lives, and make communities safer," Kennedy said in a statement.

The funding follows an executive order from President Donald Trump that directed officials to work on shifting homeless people into institutions to help address crime and disorder in the nation's cities, and another order that says the disease of addiction must be stopped through an emphasis on treatment.

"My Administration will drive a new national response to the disease of addiction that will create stronger coordination across government, the healthcare sector, faith communities, and the private sector in order to save lives, restore families, strengthen our communities, and build the Great American Recovery," Trump said in the latter order.

Kennedy on Wednesday visited the Easterseals Michigan-Clinton Township Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinic, part of the Easterseals network of facilities that assist people with disabilities, their families and caregivers, and veterans.

"Our goal is to provide comprehensive outpatient mental health and substance use services that are person-centered, trauma-informed and evidence-based," the clinic's website states.

Kennedy said that homelessness is "one of the greatest problems that we have now, health problems in this country" and that it is interconnected with the crisis of drug addiction, which has caused more than 1 million deaths since 2000.

Kennedy said administration officials do not support so-called harm reduction initiatives, such as needle exchanges or "safe injection sites." Instead, the administration is emphasizing treatment.

"Recovery works. Treatment works. Accountability works," he said.

Kennedy did say that the withdrawal drugs Suboxone and methadone work, particularly for addicts who cannot enter treatment at certain times. They are "good bridge solutions," he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 12:45

Amazon In Talks To Sell Its Trainium AI Chips To Other Firms, In Challenge To Nvidia Dominance

Amazon is in talks to sell its custom-made Trainium AI chips for use in other companies’ data centers, Bloomberg reports, noting this "represents a key expansion of its efforts to cut into Nvidia's dominance", although a less optimistic read is that the company does not have enough demand or capacity to use the chips for its own uses.

Peter DeSantis, Amazon’s AI chief, said the world’s largest cloud computing company has begun discussions but declined to name potential customers. Presumably, it will try to steal market share by offering its product at a much more competitive terms, which suggests more pricing pressure across the AI ecosystem.

“We view AI infrastructure as rapidly evolving,” he said in an interview in Paris. “And we’re constantly looking at ways to get to more customers.”

Introduced in 2020, Amazon’s AI accelerator, Trainium, has won a few marquee buyers, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Uber, which access the hardware via Amazon Web Services. The chip has produced more than $225 billion in revenue commitments, Amazon said in April (for a word of caution about purchase commitments read our discussion on the trillions in off-balance sheet liabilities sloshing inside the AI ecosystem).

That same month, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in his shareholder letter that it’s “quite possible” Amazon would sell racks of its chips to third parties. It was part of a broader attempt to reposition the sprawling company around AI, an area where it’s seen as falling behind rivals.

Amazon and other cloud computing titans have each been developing their own alternatives to Nvidia’s popular graphics processing units — and ramped up these efforts after ChatGPT’s arrival.

While the AI boom has generated soaring cloud sales, it’s also fueled a new crop of specialized AI cloud providers and driven demand for “sovereign” services in Europe and other regions that are subject to local laws and usually locate information and data processing in the host country.

In April, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Google will begin to deliver its Nvidia GPU rival chips, called tensor processing units, to a “select group of customers” for use in their own data centers. Amazon is following suit with Trainium, in part, due to the growing demand outside of the US for computing resources that are controlled locally, according to DeSantis. Alternatively, there is just not enough demand in the US, no matter what the daily bullish propaganda says (because as a reminder, due to the $2 trillion in interlinked off-balance sheet liabilities, the moment one counterparty trips, it will drag down everyone else with it). 

Meanwhile, some of that foreign push, particularly in Europe, has prompted calls for countries to lessen their reliance on US technology or drop it altogether. Speaking at the VivaTech conference in France, DeSantis said the AWS business has not been impacted at all by this trend. Yet. 

The third version of the Trainium chip, which began shipping earlier this year, is “largely sold out,” he said. Amazon said there’s already strong interest in a fourth version that’s expected to debut next year.

DeSantis dismissed the idea that selling Trainium outside of AWS would eat into the company’s cloud business. “There’s so much underconsumption in AI,” he said. “I’m not worried about it.” But with token prices tumbling, and compute rental costs in free fall, both of which signal a sudden drop in demand (or excess supply) for compute...

Perfect storm: token costs down 20% since start of the month (down 11 of 12 days) , while compute rental prices are at 1 month lows pic.twitter.com/dwIYeyihGx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026

... he should be.

The executive also cited growth for Amazon’s Graviton chips, a general-purpose processor that it recently began providing to Meta. Over the last three years, DeSantis said Amazon has added more Graviton chips to its computing systems than any other type of chip.

Amazon shares gained as much as 2.5% on Thursday, reaching an intraday high of $243 on the news.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 12:25

Forward Guidance Is Gone

By Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

• As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and dropped its easing bias. However, this unanimous decision was announced in an unusually short statement.
• What’s more, at his first press conference as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh terminated forward guidance.
• However, the Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his forecasts.
• Other interesting features of the statement were the reaffirmation of maintaining ample reserves and the conclusion that the Committee will deliver price stability.
• At the press conference, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications, the balance sheet, improving data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.
• As uncertainty regarding the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026.

Introduction

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50 3.75% and dropped its easing bias. However, this decision was announced in an unusually short statement. The decision was unanimous, with Miran – who repeatedly dissented because he wanted to cut – was replaced by Warsh. The press conference was a clear break from in the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era, with Warsh making an end to forward guidance.

FOMC statement and projections

The statement was so short, that we replicate it here:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Most notably, the easing bias previously expressed in the statement as “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…”., which suggested that the next change would be a rate cut -because the last three adjustments were rate cuts- was dropped.

Other interesting features of the statement were the reaffirmation of maintaining ample reserves – despite Warsh’s earlier stated goal to reduce the balance sheet – and the conclusion that the Committee will deliver price stability.

The new Summary of Economic Projections saw a large upward revision to the inflation forecasts for 2026 and core inflation in 2027. With minor changes to GDP and unemployment forecasts, the federal funds rate forecasts were revised upward in 2026, 2027, and 2028. In fact, the dot plot revealed that 9 out of 18 forecasting participants expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh’s dots were missing. The median participant expects to get back to the current federal funds rate in 2027 and make another cut in 2028. This means we would have to wait at least until 2029 before the federal funds rate reaches its neutral level.

Warsh’s press conference

At the press conference, Warsh said that the FOMC recognized that inflation has been elevated for five years and that this Committee will deliver price stability. Warsh also announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications, the balance sheet, improving data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks. These task forces will include external experts.

Warsh also said that the FOMC statement was shorter and simpler, and that forward guidance was absent, because it is not suited for the current circumstances. He also confirmed that he refrained from providing projections, but he encouraged others to give their projections.

During the Q&A, he effectively terminated forward guidance. Any question regarding future policy decisions was deflected. He did say that financial markets work best if they react to the data and not to the Fed.

WARSH: I THINK THAT MARKETS PERFORM BEST WHEN REACTING TO INCOMING DATA, THEY WORK LESS EFFICIENTLY WHEN THEY ASK HOW WILL THE FED REACT TO THAT INCOMING INFORMATION

Finally, the 4th wall falls

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

He also elaborated on his plans to improve the data: he prefers real-time data instead of echoes from history. He thinks current data are often based on old-fashioned survey methods.

Conclusion

Although Warsh ended forward guidance, the SEP remains in place at least until the task force on communication has completed its work, probably by the end of the year. Although half of the forecasting participants now expects to hike before the end of the year, it was only three months ago – and after the outbreak of the war – that the median participant still expected one cut in 2026. This proves Warsh’s point that projections may not be very useful in the current situation. As uncertainty regarding the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026. We expect the Fed to cut twice in 2027, provided that inflation expectations remain stable. If not, we may also have to pencil in hikes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 12:00

US-Iran MOU Eases Energy Prices But Faces Sharp Pushback From Israel And GOP Hawks

Summary:

• $6B of unfrozen Iran funds will be used to buy US goods
• The US and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement at the G7 summit in France.
• Energy prices fell as some Saudi supertankers resumed crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
• The deal includes a $300 billion private reconstruction fund and temporary Iranian oil export waivers.
• Iranian officials declared themselves the clear winner.
• The agreement has opened significant new divisions within the Republican Party.
• Israel described the deal as a major strategic setback.
• US Vice President Vance will meet Iranian officials in Switzerland on Friday.

$6 Billion In Frozen Funds For US Goods

The Financial Times is reporting that the Trump administration will allow Iran to access $6 billion of its oil money held in Qatar to purchase non-sanctioned goods from the US as part of the billions of dollars in financial incentives being floated to ensure that the Islamic Republic commits to the MOU signed on Wednesday. 

The funds would be released in phases starting within the 60-day extended ceasefire set out in the deal, depending on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of talks towards a final settlement.

They would only be used to buy American products, said a diplomat briefed on the deal. -FT

Vance's Israel 'Pwease' Moment

During a Thursday presser, VP JD Vance suggested that Israel needs to show some appreciation. 

🚨 WOW! JD Vance is DIRECTLY calling out Israeli cabinet members for their personal attacks on President Trump

"Donald J. Trump is the ONLY head of state in the ENTIRE WORLD who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state… pic.twitter.com/0H9yGH8ubL

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 18, 2026

Energy prices continued to fall on Thursday after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement, raising hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen to normal tanker traffic. The deal has been welcomed by markets but has drawn sharp criticism from Israel and quiet frustration from Gulf states, while also exposing tensions within the U.S. political system and NATO.

Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press Energy Markets and Hormuz Reopening

Brent crude fell to around $78.48 a barrel, down from levels near $95 seen late last week. In the United States, average gasoline prices dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time in months. Some commercial traffic has already resumed: three Saudi supertankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of oil crossed from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman - the first significant volumes of Saudi crude to transit the strait since the war began.

"Oil down," Trump said following the signing, adding that allowing the war to continue "could have caused an international depression."

According to the text of the agreement, Iran will facilitate commercial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz at no charge for the first 60 days. Full traffic is to resume within 30 days once technical and military obstacles are addressed and mines are cleared. Iran will hold talks with Oman on the future administration and maritime services of the waterway in line with international law. The United States and Gulf states have opposed any Iranian toll on what they regard as international waters.

Key Elements of the Preliminary Deal

The memorandum of understanding, signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, launches at least 60 days of negotiations that could begin as early as Friday. It includes temporary waivers for Iranian oil exports, a commitment to halt hostilities linked to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, and a $300 billion private investment vehicle - the Reconstruction and Development Fund - designed to channel capital into Iran’s energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport sectors.

Maritime traffic routes through the Strait of Hormuz from Sunday to Thursday.NBC News

More than half of the $300 billion has reportedly already been pledged by companies based in the United States, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa. The fund contains no government grants or U.S. taxpayer money and will only become operational after a final, comprehensive agreement is reached. It is separate from parallel talks on sanctions relief and unfrozen Iranian assets. Iran had originally sought $400 billion in war-damage compensation; the private fund mechanism emerged as the compromise.

A formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva is now in doubt after Iran’s foreign ministry indicated the remote signing may have made it unnecessary, though negotiating teams are still expected to meet there.

Iran Presents a United Front

Iranian officials have moved swiftly to project a unified public stance following the signing of the preliminary cease-fire agreement. After weeks of reported internal political friction - during which some hardliners reportedly sought to derail the deal - senior figures are now emphasizing national victory and the need for domestic cohesion.

Seyed Abbas Mousavi, a senior government official, stated that only a “small number” of critics remain inside Iran and described the country as the clear winner of both the war and the subsequent negotiations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei went further, comparing the work of Iranian diplomats to that of soldiers operating “behind launchers and in trenches,” and urged the public to extend the same level of support to the negotiating team as it had to the military during the conflict.

This coordinated messaging marks a notable shift from the divisions that surfaced during the war and stands in contrast to the public criticism that has emerged from some Republican lawmakers in Washington since the deal was signed

GOP Rift

Trump’s preliminary agreement with Iran has opened new fissures within the Republican Party. While some lawmakers praised the president for ending the fighting, others - including longtime allies and prominent conservatives - expressed sharp criticism, skepticism, and alarm over what they see as insufficient concessions from Tehran.

Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana called the war “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades,” arguing that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed and that the regime had successfully used the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions. “Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” he wrote on social media.

Senator Ted Cruz questioned whether the deal amounted to “giving $300 billion to the Iranian ayatollah,” while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said it was “a huge mistake to pay to rebuild the threat we just destroyed.”

"History teaches us giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea," Cruz continued. 

WOW — Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) takes a major whack at Trump’s Iran MOU

Wicker says the $300B fund “would make Iran’s payoff under President Obama’s 2015 deal look like a pittance by comparison” pic.twitter.com/9Tyxa3DCOO

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) June 18, 2026

Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene described the war as “totally unnecessary” and sarcastically remarked, “This, apparently, is what winning looks like.”

The New York Post ran a critical front-page headline on Wednesday, accusing Trump of hitting Iran with a “LOVEBOMB” of cash and sanctions relief. Conservative pro-Israel commentator Mark Levin also said he found “much to be concerned about” in the agreement.

The backlash highlights a difficult balancing act for Mr. Trump. At the start of the conflict, he faced pushback from “America First” isolationists who opposed entering a new war. Now, as he tries to end it, he is drawing fire from more traditional national security conservatives who believe the deal fails to deliver lasting limits on Iran’s nuclear program or regional influence.

Not all Republicans were critical. Senator Tim Scott called the agreement a “major victory for American security and global stability,” while Senator Lindsey Graham expressed cautious optimism, saying he saw “little downside to trying” to reach a verifiable nuclear deal during the coming 60-day period.

Trump responded to his critics on Wednesday, dismissing them as “stupid and bad people” and insisting he had the support of the international community.

Washington and NATO Tensions Flare

The deal has faced pushback inside the United States, including from some Republican lawmakers concerned about the scope of sanctions relief and the reconstruction fund. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a pointed rebuke of NATO allies in Brussels, calling their refusal to facilitate U.S. strikes on Iran “shameful” and announcing a six-month review of American troop presence in Europe. He warned that U.S. support for the alliance would not be “a one-way street” and signaled possible cuts to Washington’s NATO contributions if allies do not increase defense spending.

Israel Views the Deal as a Strategic Setback

Israeli analysts described the agreement as failing to achieve any of Israel’s primary war aims and potentially leaving the country worse off. The deal does not limit Iran’s ballistic-missile arsenal or its backing of proxy forces such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The nuclear file is deferred to future talks. It also seeks to constrain Israeli operations in Lebanon and calls for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon - positions Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected, stating that Israel is not a party to the agreement and is not bound by its terms.

Commentators in Israel have characterized the outcome as a significant diplomatic reversal, noting that Iran appears emboldened, retains its missile capabilities, and stands to gain substantial financial resources that could flow to its military programs and regional allies. U.S. forces are also required to pull back from Iran’s immediate vicinity within 30 days under the framework.

🚨HOWARD LUTNICK REACTS TO TRUMP’S REMARKS

Howard Lutnick appeared to shake his head in disappointment as Trump said Israel had little to complain about. pic.twitter.com/UDCfCEL44b

— Parody Jeff (@Parodyjeffx) June 18, 2026

Meanwhile...

Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir:

We cannot stop destroying houses in southern Lebanon. We cannot stop, period.

We cannot allow the population of southern Lebanon to return. ... We must continue to control the territory even if Trump disagrees.

We are an… pic.twitter.com/vhHo7K1Ttv

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2026 Gulf States Express Disappointment

Governments across the Persian Gulf - Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar - expressed disappointment that the agreement contains no curbs on Iran’s missile and drone programs. Analysts noted that Gulf states had hoped for stronger limits after suffering Iranian missile and drone attacks on airports, energy facilities, and other sites during the conflict.

Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, said excluding Iran’s missiles and drones from the agreement showed that the United States “doesn’t have our best interests in mind.”

Mr. al-Saif said he has no doubt that Iran was already rebuilding its missile and drone capacities and that it would use the financial windfall it gets from the deal to acquire more of the weaponry. The agreement, which U.S. and Iranian officials have called a memorandum of understanding, says the Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives. -NYT

President Trump’s recent public remarks that Iran should be permitted some ballistic missiles because neighboring countries possess them drew particular notice, contrasting with earlier U.S. statements that the objective included denying Iran the ability to threaten the region with such weapons.

Regional experts assess that Gulf governments may now accelerate investment in air-defense systems and seek technical cooperation with countries such as Ukraine and South Korea. While some voices question long-term reliance on the United States as a security guarantor, analysts emphasize that any meaningful strategic reorientation would take a decade or more to develop.

What Happens Next

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Friday to mark the agreement and launch the next round of negotiations. The 60-day period extends the existing cease-fire and will focus on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and regional security arrangements. Whether the preliminary deal can be turned into a lasting settlement remains an open question amid the competing pressures from Israel, Gulf states, and domestic politics in Washington.

RELATED:

• Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Market Prices In Iran Deal For Yet Another Day

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Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:25

Centrus Jumps On Deal To Supply Oklo With Domestically-Produced Uranium

Centrus Energy continues to solidify its role as a cornerstone of America's emerging advanced nuclear sector, today announcing a letter of intent with Oklo to provide domestically produced high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for the company's next generation of nuclear reactors, according to a release from the company's website.

Shares the domestic enricher jumped more than 6% this morning. 

Under the proposed multi-year agreement, Centrus will begin supplying HALEU in 2029 to support up to five Oklo Aurora powerhouses, including reactors planned for Oklo's 1.2-gigawatt clean energy campus in Ohio. The fuel is expected to be produced at Centrus' enrichment facility in Pike County, Ohio, highlighting the growing importance of domestic nuclear fuel infrastructure.

 The agreement represents a meaningful milestone for the broader advanced reactor industry. One of the largest challenges facing nuclear developers has been securing reliable access to HALEU, a specialized fuel required by many next-generation reactor designs. With global commercial HALEU production historically concentrated in Russia and China, the development of a U.S.-based supply chain has become a national priority.

Centrus has emerged as the top solution to this challenge. By establishing itself as a domestic source of HALEU, the company is helping address a critical bottleneck that has limited deployment of advanced nuclear technologies across the United States.

The deal is a confirmation of what we said a year ago: in a country starved for domestically-produced HALEU, Centrus will outperform, even though sometimes the market is somewhat obtuse and slow in figuring even the most obvious stuff.

A year later, market starting to get it https://t.co/91bUOLoS1m pic.twitter.com/TvZGJCf0PR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2026

The proposed agreement also reinforces growing confidence in Centrus' production capabilities and strengthens its visibility as advanced reactor developers move closer to commercialization. As demand for clean, reliable baseload power continues to accelerate, Centrus appears increasingly well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of the U.S. nuclear energy ecosystem.

With advanced reactor companies such as Oklo advancing toward deployment and domestic fuel supply becoming an essential national objective, Centrus' role as a leading HALEU supplier could become a significant driver of long-term growth and strategic relevance within the nuclear energy industry.

Centrus President and CEO Amir Vexler commented: “Today’s announcement is an important step toward ensuring reliable HALEU supply for next generation reactors and represents a crucial milestone as we work to restore America’s ability to enrich uranium at scale. By connecting advanced nuclear power generation and customer demand with domestic HALEU production in southern Ohio, this agreement helps establish a foundation for a new U.S. advanced nuclear energy hub.”

Other nuclear stocks are also on the rise, with Energy Fuels up almost 17% and reactor manufacturers NuScale Power and NANO Nuclear Energy up about 3% and 5%, respectively.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:00

The Treaty Of Versailles

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday, President Trump signed the US-Iran MoU in Versailles. It’s not a treaty, but the parallel with the one signed by Germany there on June 28, 1919, is notable: post-WW1, French Marshal Foch is widely credited with saying, “This is not a peace. It is an armistice for twenty years,” because he saw it as too lenient on the loser of that war.

‘Bravo’ says Macron after Trump signs Iran MoU at Versailles dinner. ‘Great job’ pic.twitter.com/5nDjGku4xS

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 17, 2026

This MoU is also lenient on Iran, who thinks it won, and again doesn’t look like peace, just an armistice for 20 weeks – which ends two days after the US midterm elections. Indeed, even as Trump was touting the importance of the deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” he underlined he’ll bomb Iran again if they don’t honor it.

Yet what they honor depends on whose MoU version you read. The 14-point text the US released to CNN differs in important regards from what Bloomberg was running with and the Iranian version:

• Point 1: There is a link to Lebanon but not necessarily one that forces an Israeli withdrawal. The text calls for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, and “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”, which technically a temporary Israeli security presence does not prevent any more than heavily armed Hezbollah --counter to UN resolutions and the government’s proclamations-- does. Regardless, the IDF is so far saying it won’t withdraw.
• Point 5: The US says Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.” Iran says it will charge on day 61, but can that also be read that the passage is for 60 days, which would then need to be extended? The placing of a comma there could be the literal meme ‘NO MORE WAR’ > ‘NO, MORE WAR.’ The text also says Iran “will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran is taking that to mean that it can charge ‘service fees’; yet international law and GCC states may think otherwise when this is discussed.
• Point 8: The two sides “have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA.” That additional clause is key, and while a step back vs. earlier US uranium demands is a clear deliverable else this all falls apart. Is Iran going to blink here?

Trump also thanked China and Russia for remaining “neutral” in the war, adding “it’s OK” for Iran to have some ballistic missiles, as the Wall Street Journal estimates Iran could earn up $60bn from oil revenues ahead. What that’s spent on (reconstruction, Chinese or Russian arms, or shaheed drone factories to use locally and send to Russia, etc.) is also critical.

Understandably, Iran hawks are lamenting this all as a “disaster” or “catastrophe.” Even Bloomberg underlines what was flagged here months ago: if this MoU is a TACO not a can-kicking exercise until November, it will “unravel geopolitics”, the US creating a power vacuum others will try to fill.

That’s as South Korea’s President Lee just asked Trump to solve the North Korea issue… but they already have a nuke, so what do they get given – access to Anthropic AI?

As all is in flux, the US is also working with Europe to again back Ukraine, whose drone tech now means they hold some good cards, even as the EU reopens official communication channels with the Kremlin. It seems likely that US sanctions could soon go back on Russian oil, which would see the energy complex reshuffled again.

In market terms, the IEA is now seeing a gradual Hormuz recovery tipping into a significant 2027 oil surplus, flipping the narrative entirely – unless war restarts in 20 weeks. Most things remain a passenger to that dynamic.

Ironically, but as expected, the market is trading that possible Mou TACO as dollar positive even as it actually undermines the global architecture that holds the dollar up: but since when did FX look at the long term?

In other geoeconomics, as Europe seems set for a sustained trade war vs. China ahead, the G7 agreed to set up a critical minerals alliance platform to cut their reliance on China – which, as explained here before, logically implies trade decoupling downstream too and the emergence of geopolitical trade blocs.

Meanwhile, in a changing world, the Fed under Chair Warsh is ripping treaties up, not signing them. As our US strategist notes, the FOMC left rates unchanged as expected, with an easing bias dropped, but with an unusually short statement. Indeed, Warsh just terminated forward guidance – which is arguably not such a bad idea given what happens in the Middle East is pivotal to what happens to inflation, and central banks have no idea at all about what will transpire there(?)

In cyclical terms, the June Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his.

More importantly, in structural terms, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications (is so much needed?); the balance sheet (is so much needed?); improving data (more, better is needed, and Warsh prefers real-time numbers over backwards looking surveys); productivity and jobs (will AI allow for rate cuts?); and inflation frameworks (where things will get even more interesting).

Just as many suspect there is more drama ahead in Hormuz, and that it will never go back to being what it was until recently, the same may be true for the Fed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:40

Accenture Crashes Most On Record As AI Threatens Consulting Demand

Accenture shares crashed by the most on record in premarket trading on a confluence of issues. First, the company's fourth-quarter revenue outlook missed Bloomberg consensus estimates and third-quarter bookings declined, reinforcing investors' belief that consulting demand is declining in the era of AI adoption across corporate America, which is wreaking havoc in the white-collar job market.

The global consulting and technology services company, which helps large corporations and governments with strategy, IT, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and more, guided August-quarter revenue to a range of $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, below the $18.47 billion figure that analysts tracked by Bloomberg were forecasting. Third-quarter bookings fell to $19.3 billion, down from $19.7 billion a year earlier, while revenue rose to $18.7 billion, slightly below estimates. EPS increased 9% to $3.80.

Here's a snapshot of 3Q earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

EPS $3.80 vs. $3.49 y/y

Revenue $18.7 billion, +5.6% y/y, estimate $18.76 billion

• Communications, Media & Technology revenue $3.22 billion, +10% y/y, estimate $3.2 billion
• Financial Services revenue $3.49 billion, +6.4% y/y, estimate $3.54 billion
• Product revenue $5.67 billion, +6.1% y/y, estimate $5.67 billion

Health & Public Service revenue $3.85 billion, +1.8% y/y, estimate $3.82 billion

• Resources revenue $2.50 billion, +3.4% y/y, estimate $2.54 billion

Bookings $19.32 billion, -1.9% y/y, estimate $20.66 billion

• Consulting new bookings $10.26 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $9.54 billion
• Managed Services new bookings $9.06 billion, -15% y/y, estimate $11.12 billion

Gross margin 32.8% vs. 32.9% y/y, estimate 32.9%

Free cash flow $3.60 billion, +2.9% y/y

Operating cash flow $3.79 billion, +2.8% y/y, estimate $3.06 billion

Snapshot of 4Q forecast:

Sees revenue $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, estimate $18.47 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue +1% to +5%

Full-Year Forecast:

Sees revenue +3% to +4%, saw +3% to +5%

Sees adjusted EPS $13.78 to $13.90, saw $13.65 to $13.90

Sees effective tax rate 24% to 25%, saw 23.5% to 25.5%

Still sees operating cash flow $11.5 billion to $12.2 billion

Still sees free cash flow $10.8 billion to $11.5 billion

Beyond earnings, one major issue plaguing Accenture is investor confidence in the business model. Morgan Stanley downgraded Accenture to Equal-weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to $177 from $240, arguing that the anticipated boost to IT services spending from artificial intelligence investments has yet to materialize, as enterprises continue to prioritize AI projects over traditional discretionary technology spending.

Crucially, "we are not seeing the budget growth inflection we had previously expected," the analysts wrote.

Morgan Stanley is not the first to sound the alarm on declining IT consulting demand. In March, Jefferies analyst Surinder Thind told clients there was limited evidence of a recovery in customer appetite, directly contradicting management's upbeat commentary.

Accenture shares crashed the most on record, down 16% in the early cash session. 

What goes up must go down. 

Emergence of OpenAI's ChatGPT (news headlines) vs. ACN stock price. 

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts have 17 "Buy" ratings, 12 "Neutral" ratings, and zero "Sell" ratings on the stock. The 12-month average price target is $236.

Thind called the latest earnings disappointing. "Questions around the resiliency of demand in an AI-first world are likely to be amplified," he said, adding, "especially in light of recent advancements in AI models and agentic capabilities."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:10

Both Parents Work Full-Time In Majority Of Families, Census Data Show

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Both parents work full-time in more than half of couples with children under 18, according to newly analyzed data.

Fifty-two percent of couples comprised of a mother and father work full-time jobs as of 2025, according to the Pew Research Center analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau released on June 16.

That percentage is an increase from 46 percent in 2015 and 31 percent in 1975.

Black mothers are still the most likely to be in a couple where both she and the father work, according to an analysis broken down by race. Sixty percent of black mothers are in such a partnership, down slightly from 64 percent in 2000.

Majorities of white, 54 percent, and Asian, 52 percent, women with children are for the first time in couples comprised of two working parents. Hispanic women are still more likely to be in a couple with only one working parent.

Mothers with lower levels of education are the most likely to be in a couple in which the dad works full-time, and the mom is not employed, according to the analysis.

That figure was 30 percent for mothers with, at most, some college education, compared to 21 percent for mothers with bachelor’s degrees and 11 percent for mothers with postgraduate degrees.

Across all couples with minor children, the percentage in which the father works full-time and the mother is not employed declined from 42 percent in 1975 to 23 percent in 2025.

In another 15 percent of couples, the father works full-time and the mother works part-time. In five percent, the father works part-time or is not employed, and the mother has a full-time job. And in the remaining five percent, there is some other arrangement.

Many parents view their family’s financial situation as positive, according to a Pew survey conducted in March, provided the mother works at least part-time. For parents in couples where the dad works full time, and the mother does not have a job, only 19 percent said their financial situation is positive, and 41 percent said it is negative.

Adults in those couples were the most likely to say that the work arrangement was positive for their children’s well-being. Eighty-five percent did. Just 49 percent of parents in couples where both mothers and fathers work full-time answered the same.

Some 52 percent of the respondents also said their job makes it harder to be a good parent, and 45 percent said that being a parent has made it difficult to advance at work.

Additionally, 62 percent of mothers who work full-time expressed frustration with balancing work and family responsibilities, compared with 47 percent of fathers who work full-time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:00

"The Impact was Devastating": Chicago's Cross-Burning Was Set By Liberal, Anti-Trump Protester

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

After the Southern Poverty Law Center scandal of actually funding and encouraging racist protests, it appears that at least one individual has created his own orchestrated racist incident.

In Chicago (where Jussie Smollett committed his infamous racist hoax), a burning cross was denounced by Mayor Brandon Johnson as a sign of the racism in society.

Johnson, however, refused to address the fact that the cross burning was actually the work of an anti-Trump liberal student.

University of Illinois senior Merlin Lu said it was never intended as a racist symbol, but the question is whether it could still be charged as a hate crime.

In posting a reward for the culprit soon after the incident, Rev. Michael Pfleger declared that “this bold rise of racism must be condemned by every race, faith community, and Chicagoan as was done with the swastika and treated as a hate crime.”

It turns out that this was not evidence of the rise of racism but another possible hoax.

Lu bizarrely claimed that he was unaware that a burning cross had racist connotations and insisted that there was no racist message intended.

Others suspected that this was a type of false-flag effort to outrage the left.

Johnson later denounced the incident as a “symbol of hatred is one that we must continue to reject, and I wholeheartedly reject it. I can’t speak to anyone’s motives; I can only speak to the impact, and the impact was devastating.”

It seems curious that Johnson would not “speak to motives” when he knows that this was set by a leftist radical.

The question is whether it is still a hate crime under Illinois law. Under Section 12-7.1, the law states:

(a) A person commits hate crime when, by reason of the actual or perceived race, color, creed, religion, ancestry, gender, sexual orientation, physical or mental disability, citizenship, immigration status, or national origin of another individual or group of individuals, regardless of the existence of any other motivating factor or factors, he or she commits assault, battery, aggravated assault, intimidation, stalking, cyberstalking, misdemeanor theft, criminal trespass to residence, misdemeanor criminal damage to property, criminal trespass to vehicle, criminal trespass to real property, mob action, disorderly conduct, transmission of obscene messages, harassment by telephone, or harassment through electronic communications as these crimes are defined in Sections 12-1, 12-2, 12-3(a), 12-7.3, 12-7.5, 16-1, 19-4, 21-1, 21-2, 21-3, 25-1, 26-1, 26.5-1, 26.5-2, paragraphs (a)(1), (a)(2), and (a)(3) of Section 12-6, and paragraphs (a)(2) and (a)(5) of Section 26.5-3 of this Code, respectively.

The notable language is “regardless of the existence of any other motivating factor or factors.” The inclusion of property damage could allow a charge to be brought.

The case could rekindle the debate over intent for threats. Many professors and pundits on the left have long argued that the standard should be how a message is received rather than how it is intended. That issue arose in the decision in Counterman v. Colorado, 600 U.S. 66 (2023), concerning the standard for the “true threats” exception to the First Amendment. In an opinion written by Justice Elena Kagan, the Court reversed the conviction. While rejecting an “objective” standard, the Court declared that such cases had to be based on evidence of the defendant’s state of mind under a “subjective standard.” Accordingly, the government must prove recklessness, but not necessarily intent: “The State must show that the defendant consciously disregarded a substantial risk that his communications would be viewed as threatening violence.”

Recklessness would be a dangerous standard for the defense of Merlin Liu. He insists that he was entirely clueless about what a burning cross represents in our culture. Yet, if Chicago does not bring a hate crime charge, it could be cited in future cases in suggesting that intent or “motivating factors” do matter in such cases.

I have favored stronger scienter or intent standards in true threat cases. It seems like a hate crime should, at a minimum, also be based on an intent to cause such alarm or fear. That does not mean that Liu’s defense of ignorance will work. However, in my view, prosecutors should have to show more than how others perceive a protest.

Unlike Johnson, the prosecutors and the Court will have to “speak to motivations” before this case is concluded.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:20

Energy Cliff, Supply Chain Shock: The Toxic Cocktail Behind The Urgent Push For An Iran Deal

The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning. Tanker traffic through the critical waterway is slowly resuming, though a full return to pre-war or near-pre-war energy flows could take months.

But behind the urgency to get the memorandum of understanding deal across the finish line were two uncomfortable realities.

First, President Trump recently met with oil and gas executives, who likely informed the administration that the conflict and the shuttered Hormuz maritime chokepoint were leading to an energy cliff that would materialize by mid-summer.

On Wednesday at the G7 Summit in France, Trump acknowledged the uncomfortable truth that SPRs used to offset lost Gulf energy production were being drained at an alarming rate.

"We run out of reserves in about four weeks," Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been "bedlam" pic.twitter.com/k45MTI8sNs

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2026

The latest Department of Energy data showed Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That's the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially 'tank-bottoms', the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate.

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Second, the physical disruption in global supply chains had begun spreading beyond energy flows and into shipping costs, threatening to transmit the Hormuz crisis into broader goods inflation.

Last month, UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade warned, "Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic." This prompted Lafourcade to re-launch the Global Supply Chain Stress Index.

Earlier this morning, Lafourcade warned in a new note that "supply chain stress spreads to shipping cost" and that "continues to rise."

He continued:

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has continued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month's values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022. This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has After a slow reaction to the conflict, shipping costs are now accelerating The indicator is constructed as the cross‑sectional average of z-scored series—a first-order approximation to the data's first principal component. Figure 2 overleaf shows the contributions over the past four months. The indicator most directly capturing the supply-shock nature of the Hormuz bottleneck is our measure of seaborne oil and gas flows (shown on the right of the figure, with the sign flipped to indicate rising stress). All other components reflect the shock more indirectly. Oil and gas shipping volumes have dropped even more from the immediate post-closure lows, while the volume of other cargo shipping has bounced back somewhat from earlier lows (see here for our latest read on global tracking). Delivery times and air-freight costs deteriorated primarily in March and April, with little additional movement since. Initially, supply chain stress appeared relatively contained and concentrated in these indicators. However, shipping costs now seem to be responding with a lag: after little change in March and April, prices have ramped up noticeably in May and June to date, across all major reporters (Baltic, Harper Petersen, Drewry, and Freightos).ntinued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month's values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022.

This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

If SPRs are drained and supply chain stress keeps rising, the global economy moves from a manageable disruption to a stagflationary shock. That would send energy prices higher, create weaker fuel demand, lead to margin compression for companies, and eventually risk a recession.

The sequence of disasters that could've unfolded:

1. Energy prices reprice violently higher

2. Shipping costs feed into goods inflation

3. Corporate margins get squeezed

4. Consumers get hit

5. Central banks face the stagflation trap

6. Emerging markets falter

7. Global equities shift into recession pricing

These two pressures help explain why the Trump administration moved urgently to secure an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate goal was to normalize tanker flows and avert an energy cliff as SPR buffers came under pressure. The second objective is to stop the Hormuz disruption from spilling deeper into global supply chains, where rising shipping costs, longer transit times, and tighter effective vessel capacity were beginning to transmit the shock beyond energy markets and into the broader global economy.

Professional subscribers can read more about the global supply chain and the Strait of Hormuz on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:00

Continuing Jobless Claims Hit 3-Month-Highs

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell from 230k (4 month highs) to 226k (vs 225k exp) last week - elevated but still within the range of the last four years...

Source: Bloomberg

Pennsylvania and Oregon saw the largest rise in initial claims last week while Ohio and Illinois saw the biggest decline...

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims rose back above 1.8 million Americans - the highest print in 3 months - but still well off cycle highs near 2 million in Q4 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that while initial claims are rising, they remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels, reinforcing the more hawkish 'labor market is resilient' framework introduced yesterday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:36

Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Market Prices In Iran Deal For Yet Another Day

Futures rebounded from the post-FOMC selloff, and oil prices fell as Trump signed the Iran MOU two days early to end the war in the Middle East (in the symbolic Palace of Versailles of all place) and some energy shipments began to transit the Strait of Hormuz. As usual, tech led the parade higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.6%, but off overnight session highs, partly unwinding a more than 1% decline after Kevin Warsh signaled the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year to contain inflation; Nasdaq gained 1.3%; pre-market all Mag 7 are higher led by AMZN (+1.2%), META (+1.1%) and NVDA (+1.1%), reversing some of yesterday’s losses. Intel shares jumped more than 8% in premarket trading after Trump said the firm struck a chipmaking deal with Apple (a rehash of previous news but to this Pavolvian market, everything seems to be brand new). Overnight, the biggest headline was that the US/Iran MOU was officially in effect (final deal within 60 days, waiver for Iran to export oil, a $300bn reconstruction fund, terminating all types of sanction, per Axios). Bond yields are lower led by the long-end of the curve as 2y is still anchored by Fed commentary yesterday; 2y and 10y are -1bp and -4bp lower, respectively, the 10Y trading at 4.46%. The USD continues to climb with the DXY adding 53bp this morning. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war while WTI fell -2.6% to $74.78; precious metals are largely flat this morning. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm)

In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1%, Meta +0.5%, Tesla +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%).

• Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 0.6% after CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the iPhone maker plans to raise prices on its products to offset the increasing costs of memory and storage chips.
• SpaceX (SPCX) falls 1.7%, set to extend the previous session’s drop, as it wraps up its first week as a public company following a record-breaking listing.
• Accenture (ACN) tumbles 11% after the IT services company gave a revenue forecast for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• Albemarle Corp. (ALB) is up 1.8% after Citi raised its recommendation to buy from neutral on expected higher lithium prices.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) rises 4.1% after Barclays raised the recommendation on the company to equal-weight from underweight, citing its push into selling solid-state transformers to data centers.
• Hive (HIVE) is up 15% after its subsidiary BUZZ High Performance Computing announced a partnership with Bell Canada, Cohere and Hypertec to build AI infrastructure in Canada.
• Iren Ltd. (IREN) gains 3.3% as Jefferies initiated coverage of the Bitcoin miner and data center operator with a recommendation of buy on artificial intelligence data center demand.
• Pfizer (PFE) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker said Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on Aug. 15 for a professional opportunity in consumer goods outside the pharmaceutical industry.
• Rumble (RUM) jumps 15% after the online video network platform said it plans to operate two core business units: video platform Rumble and cloud and AI-infrastructure business Quake AI, formerly Northern Data.

Four big June events are now in the rear view mirror — the first FOMC of the Warsh era, an Iran deal, the SpaceX’s IPO, and the first CPI print over 4% in 3 years. And yet, nothing appears able to dent the ongoing market meltup which is driven entirely by massive debt-funded capex spending into a handful of chip stocks.  

Ahead of the last trading day of the week for US markets, the peace deal is reducing the risk of further energy-supply disruptions. Stocks have largely shrugged off the turmoil and continued to notch record highs on the back of relentless enthusiasm for AI. Equity markets have come through the tests posed by the debut of SpaceX, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair and the US-Iran peace deal fairly unscathed, said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau.

“With the MOU now signed, there’s reason to believe that we may be close to or past peak inflation,” Thuin said. “The market will be able to concentrate on earnings again, like for Micron next week.”

Bond investors, however, face the prospect of lingering risks that may keep the higher-for-longer rates narrative intact. Even though US gasoline prices have dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, energy costs have only been one factor in keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s target.

US gasoline prices dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, providing relief to consumers after global supply disruption sent fuel costs soaring. In contrast, inflation pressures are likely to hit people in the pocket if they want to buy a new iPhone later this year, with Apple’s Tim Cook telling the Wall Street Journal that the company plans to raise prices to offset surging memory and storage chip costs

Despite lower oil prices, front-end Treasury yields remained at their highest level since February 2025, with traders cementing bets for a September US rate hike. In the UK, the yield on two-year gilts jumped six basis points to 4.2%, while the Bank of England kept guidance that it “stands ready to act” on inflation and left its key rate unchanged. The dollar extended gains.

A quick look back at the Fed decision: Wednesday’s Fed decision marked the fourth consecutive meeting in which policymakers left rates unchanged. Officials described economic growth as “solid” and highlighted strong productivity gains and capital investment, while making clear that inflation has become a greater concern than labor-market weakness. Warsh has been critical of over-communication and poor forecasting by the Fed, and the new regime is moving away from explicit forward guidance - investors can no longer rely on central bank signals and will have to price in policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 has historically faced challenges following changes in leadership at the Fed.  

“Half the committee is expecting rate hikes this year, which is a real shot across the bow at the market,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer and global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I think they’re getting ready for rate hikes.”

As for SpaceX, the company is seemingly sucking retail investors back into equities, flows into US equity ETFs have risen rapidly, notching the second highest-ever monthly flow, Bloomberg notes. Based on the price target of an initiation of coverage by Arete analyst Andrew Beale, SpaceX gets an implied $5.3 trillion valuation by end of 2027.

European stocks are missing out on the rally, with the Stoxx 600 down by 0.4%, dragged lower by the mining and autos sectors. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Edenred shares soar as much 18%, hitting their highest level since early November, after the payment solutions firm confirmed it has been approached by investment funds in the wake of a report of takeover interest from BC Partners
• Generali shares rose as much as 3.3%, the most in 14 months, after newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore reported that UniCredit has informally proposed exchanging a 10% stake held by the Del Vecchio family holding Delfin in the insurer with its own shares
• Oxford Instruments rises as much as 4.4% as Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from add and installs a new Street-high price target, based on durability of growth and scope for further operating leverage
• Man Group shares rise as much as 3.4% to the highest since 2011 as BNP Paribas analysts upgrade their rating on the hedge fund manager to outperform from neutral and raise their target price
• Informa shares rise as much as 3% as Morgan Stanley said the company has navigated the first five months of its financial year well, with strong results from its Live B2B Events and Academic Markets units
• SSP advances as much as 5.1%, to the highest in eight weeks, after Davy initiates on the airport-focused food and beverage outlet operator with an outperform recommendation and 225p price target
• Skistar climbs as much as 11%, the most since March 2025, after reporting third-quarter results which DNB Carnegie says show good cost mitigation and decent future pre-bookings
• Tesco shares fall as much as 3.7% to their lowest level in two weeks after the UK’s biggest supermarket reported earnings which missed analyst expectations for like-for-like sales
• Carrefour drops as much as 6.6% as JPMorgan places the French supermarket operator on a negative catalyst watch, saying first-half results on July 23 “might turn out to be a downgrade event”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as oil prices eased after President Donald Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% to set an intraday record, boosted by gains in tech names including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. South Korea led advances in the region, with shares also rising in Taiwan and Japan. Crude prices continued to fall after Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran has taken effect, helping to ease inflation concerns for energy importing countries and offsetting hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A gauge of tech shares in Asia rose to a new high.Elsewhere in Asia, central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines — two economies hit hard by the sharp increase in global oil prices following the Iran war — both hiked their policy rates on Thursday. Indonesian stocks held losses, while Philippine shares pared gains.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses an earlier decline, sending the euro below $1.15. The BOE, Switzerland, and Norway’s central banks all held rates. 

In rates, treasuries curve-flattening sparked by Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting extends as 2-year rises back toward highest levels since February 2025 — and within 25bp of the 10-year — while 30-year is more than 6bp lower on the day. Treasury 2-year is more than 2bps cheaper on the day while 10-year is nearly 3bp richer near 4.46% after touching 4.44% during London morning. US 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are 5bp and 6bp tighter respectively, after narrowing 8bp and 11bp to multi-month lows Wednesday. UK front-end underperforms, holding losses after Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” UK 2-year, 6bp cheaper on the day, had muted reaction to Bank of England policy announcement decided by 7-2 vote.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 2%, off session lows after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released details on the text of the memorandum of understanding ending US attacks. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war as three laden oil vessels controlled by Saudi Arabia’s state tanker giant switched on their signals in the Gulf of Oman after being stuck inside the Persian Gulf since the conflict began. 

US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• An impending wave of oil that’s been trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz is set to be unleashed on Asia, suddenly swamping a region that had managed to make up for lost supply in recent weeks. BBG
• The average price of U.S. gasoline fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time in months, after Iran and the United States signed a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to a fraction of a penny below $4, down from $4.03 the day before, according to the AAA motor club. NYT
• The MSCI China Index is on the cusp of a bear market, pressured by weakness in tech and consumer stocks. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags on the day. BBG
• The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation: BBG
• The SNB left its key rate at zero as expected and said it retained its heightened readiness to sell the franc. Separately, the Swiss government trimmed its growth predictions for 2026 and next year, while slightly raising its inflation outlook. BBG
• Brussels has opened communication channels with the Kremlin in recent weeks to scope out the potential for talks to end the war in Ukraine, as European capitals debate whether to engage directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. FT
• Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected, but said it would likely be necessary to hike at one of the forthcoming meetings. Norges Bank
• The U.K.’s unemployment rate inched down in the three months through April while wage growth remained flat, with continued weakness in the labor market reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold. WSJ
• Microsoft Corp. has built a big business selling AI models to Chinese companies despite the growing rivalry between the US and China over artificial intelligence. ByteDance Ltd. has generally been Microsoft’s biggest AI customer in recent years, largely using OpenAI models, and is on track to spend more than $1 billion a year on Microsoft AI and cloud services. BBG
• U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday that Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture its ‌chips in the United States. RTRS

Iran Headlines

• Technical talks between the US and Iran will be held in Zurich on Friday, Al Hadath reported citing sources. Talks will include the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file. Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will also attend the talks. An unannounced negotiation session will discuss issues related to Lebanon and Hezbollah.
• The fifth round of US-Iran negotiations will discuss Israel's withdrawal along with a timetable for the experimental zone, Al Hadath reported citing a Lebanese source. The source added that the US-Iranian agreement will intensify pressure on Israel to gradually withdraw and that there will be no retreat from restricting weapons to the state and deploying the army in the south. Lebanon is proceeding with direct negotiations with Israel.
• Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed that the US and Iran will meet on Friday for initial talks on MoU execution.
• The Swiss government, following the Iranian commentary, said the plan as it stands is still for the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to meet on Friday in Switzerland to commence talks.
• US War Secretary Hegseth said they are to review where the right place for basing is, when the Strait of Hormuz opens and are prepared to resume strikes and blockade if Iran does not comply with MoU.
• US official said the Iran MoU was signed digitally on Sunday by US VP Vance and Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf, which was witnessed by US President Trump, while the US official said Iran MoU was signed on Wednesday by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.
• US official says that Iran is to arrange safe, no-charge passage through Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, according to CNBC.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the MoU between the US and Iran was decided to be signed digitally, while the plan for negotiating teams in Geneva remains in place, but there will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland. Baghaei stated that the 60-day period had started and that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, while he also commented that the US has begun lifting the blockade on Iranian ships and that no enriched nuclear material will be sent abroad, and the dilution of nuclear material remains an option. Furthermore, he said Iran will reciprocate if the US fails to honour commitments, and that Iran is to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz safety services, as well as stated that Iran and Oman are to manage the Strait of Hormuz security, and noted that Switzerland talks with the US are not yet certain.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments. The spokesman also said that the 60-day period starts today, according to the text.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, but this does not mean acting against international laws or maritime navigation, while he added that payment for services through the Strait of Hormuz has been established in the MoU and that USD 300bln has been allocated to be invested in Iran, part of which will be spent on reconstruction. Furthermore, he said Iran's action is contingent on US compliance, with Iran to pursue action-for-action policy, as well as separately commented that Tehran can target ships entering Hormuz if needed, and that Tehran has sovereign rights to charge Hormuz tolls.
• Source on Telegram posted that several IRGC boats were engaged in unspecified activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and that a US ship broadcast a warning message in Persian to tell them to cease operations and return to port, or else the US Navy would attack them.
• An Israeli official said Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and are holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli military operations reportedly continue in Lebanon despite the MoU, while Israel opposes Lebanon ceasefire terms in the US-Iran agreement, according to Al Jazeera.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on recent key events, including the hawkish FOMC and Fed chair Warsh's first presser, in which the Fed kept rates unchanged, removed forward guidance, emphasised price stability, and provided hawkish dot plots. This triggered selling in stocks, treasuries and gold, while it boosted the dollar and yields, with money markets now fully pricing in an October hike. Nonetheless, some of the moves have since been pared, to varying degrees, as oil prices gradually declined following the announcement that the US and Iran have signed the MoU for ending the war, which is now in effect, but with the planned talks on Friday in Switzerland, said to not yet be certain. ASX 200 was subdued with most sectors in the red and the declines were led by tech and miners.
Nikkei 225 extended on record highs to surpass the 71,000 level as manufacturers benefited from lower oil prices and optimism of the reopening of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. KOSPI rallied and breached the 9,000 level for the first time amid strength in Samsung and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with underperformance in Hong Kong as the hawkish FOMC and increased prospects of a rate hike this year, pressured the local benchmark, given that any rate hike in the US would force the HKMA to move in lockstep with the Fed to defend the USD/HKD peg.

Top Asian News

• Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said the Japanese government is monitoring FX markets closely and will respond to FX moves as needed.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) start Thursday's session on a mixed footing despite the US and Iranian presidents digitally signing the MoU. Germany's DAX 40 (+0.1%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE 100 (-0.8%) is the laggard as multiple companies trade ex-dividends. European sectors highlight a negative bias. Technology (+0.3%), Industrial Goods & Services (+0.6%) and Telecoms (+0.1%) are the only sectors in the green. To the bottom lies Optimised Personal Care (-1.8%), Basic Resources (-1.9%), and Autos (-1.3%).

Top European News

• Germany's Ifo cut its German economic growth forecast for 2027 to 0.8% (prev. exp. 1.2%). Inflation expected at 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2027.
• Swiss Government cuts its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.0%) and 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% (prev. 1.7%, long-term avg. 1.8%).

FX

• G10s were initially mixed against a lacklustre USD. However, as the morning progressed, the Dollar found some strength and surpassed the highs made post-FOMC; today’s peak is at 100.63. USD/JPY aggressively sold off earlier in the session from 160.80 to 160.48 but has since pared entirely.
• GBP was initially flat, but now posts modest losses against the USD. The BoE announcement is due today, where the MPC is widely expected to keep rates on hold in a 7-2/8-1 vote split as recent data and energy moderation support the narrative that bank rate is restrictive. With markets assigning a 95% probability of no-change today, attention will be on the vote split. While consensus is for 7-2/8-1, hawkish dissent from Chief Economist Pill and potentially one or two more policymakers remains possible, and would likely spur a hawkish reaction. In addition to the BoE, GBP will also digest results of the Makerfield by-election which will likely see Labour candidate Burnham emerge as the winner, and challenge incumbent Starmer.
• Norges Bank was broadly as expected with a fleeting kneejerk lower in NOK, the unwinding of tightening bets by c. 15% of market participants. The 2026 core CPI view was maintained and the 2027 one was trimmed modestly, as expected, while forecasts and commentary still show that inflation is “too high” and the Governor outlined that new information shows “inflation pressures are slightly stronger than we had anticipated earlier”. As such, the Norges Bank points to tightening ahead, roughly in line with market expectations. EUR/NOK +0.3%.
• SNB kept rates unchanged in a mostly as-expected meeting. EUR/CHF is firmer today, potentially surrounding the fact that commentary around energy/raw materials suggests that the new forecasts do not account for the moderation in energy seen recently; over the medium term, sparking a return to concerns around inflation being too low in Switzerland. As such, EUR/CHF -0.2%.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with price action lacklustre since the European cash open. It appears that fixed benchmarks are taking a breather following this week’s hefty declines in yields, which comes amidst sustained pressure in the energy complex. On the geopolitical front, US-Iran have signed the MoU, which means the Strait of Hormuz is theoretically open for ships to pass through, whilst the US blockade will also be lifted.
• USTs (-2 ticks) trades within a 109-09+ to 109-20+ range, and well off the lows seen overnight, which stemmed from a hawkish Fed on Wednesday. A full recap can be found on the headline feed, but in brief, the unchanged policy was accompanied by hawkish dot plots and the removal of the easing bias. From a yield perspective, the US 2s10s curve is flatter post-Fed, and currently holding around 27.5bps, a level not seen since Liberation Day (2nd Apr 2025). This has unsurprisingly been led by the short-end, following the hawkish Fed. However, should inflation begin to ease later this year, there is some chance that the spread begins to widen once again, with short-end yields reflecting a less hawkish Fed. The long end may also be affected, with focus on Chair Warsh announcing a dedicated task force to review the Bank’s balance sheet. Any hints of an acceleration of the roll-off would undoubtedly lead to a considerably steeper curve.
• Bunds (-9 ticks) and Gilts (U/C) trade in line with peers. Focusing on UK paper, traders will await the BoE this afternoon and then the start of the Makerfield by-election. In brief, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%, with a mixed vote split. Some see in a range of 8-1 to 6-3. Thereafter, attention shifts to domestic politics, whereby a Burnham victory could see him launch a leadership challenge; for reference, he is viewed as the worst candidate for Gilts. There is a full preview in the Research Suite for those interested.
• France sells EUR 13.999bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 2.40% 2029, 3.25% 2032, 2.00% 2032 and 3.00% 2034 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.83bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 3.00% 2033, 3.40% 2036 and 4.90% 2040 Bono.

Commodities

• Crude futures are softer, with WTI Aug'26 slipping below the USD 75/bbl mark (USD 73.42-75.75/bbl range) while Brent Aug'26 oscillates around a USD 78/bbl handle (USD 77.10-79.06/bbl band). US and Iranian leaders signed the MoU digitally, which has weighed on the energy complex. The deal allows for the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports and possible access to a USD 300bln development programme, backed by sanctions waivers and unfreezing overseas funds. In exchange, Iran will never produce nuclear weapons. The MoU also confirmed earlier reporting that Iran's nuclear file will be deferred to talks for 60 days.
• More recently, reporting by Al Hadath noted technical talks between the US and Iran will begin in Zurich on Friday, in which the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file will be discussed. Attention remains on whether Israel will back away from fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. An Israeli official said that Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and is holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon. However, energy benchmarks were unreactive following those comments.
• Spot gold has slightly pared back Wednesday's losses which were driven by a hawkish Fed meeting. After dipping to a trough of USD 4219/oz yesterday, the yellow metal ventured higher throughout the Asia-Pac session and reached USD 4330/oz at best this morning.
• 3M LME Copper gapped lower and fell to a trough of USD 13.67k/t post-FOMC. In brief, the Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, however, the SEP highlighted a hawkish bias. 3M LME Copper has since traded rangebound, holding in a USD 13.67k-13.78k/t band.
• Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries CEO said 89% of damaged petrochemical units returned to production, and the process of redesigning and strengthening production capacity is underway, ISNA reported.
• Three Saudi Arabian-flagged supertankers laden with a combined 6mln barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to shipping data.
• China's State Planner said effective at midnight June 18th, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be cut by CNY 515/t and CNY 495/t, respectively.

Central Banks

• The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, as expected, as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging,” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation. The committee lowered its estimate of peak inflation to 3.25% in the fourth quarter of this year, below the 3.6% it had projected in April.
• The SNB held rates unchanged at 0.00%, as expected. The Bank stated that the readiness to intervene in FX is higher and that monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability. On inflation, the Bank stated that medium-term inflationary pressure, however, is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
• SNB Chairman Schlegel said that monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect. Geopolitical uncertainty remains, risks of strong upward pressure on the CHF remains. "If necessary, we therefore have an increased willingness to intervene..." in FX.
• The Norges Bank held rates unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. The Bank stated that it will likely be necessary to raise the policy rate further at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings. Governor Bache stated in the release that inflation is too high and that new information indicates that inflation pressures are slightly stronger than we had anticipated earlier. The Bank's MPR was also revised higher, forecasting just above 4.5% at the end of 2026.

Ukraine geopol

• Russia's Defence Ministry said 555 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian areas overnight, according to IFX.
• Russia attacked Kyiv with missiles and explosions heard in the capital, while it was separately reported that several Moscow airports have halted flights and Moscow's mayor announced that drones hit an oil refinery in a massive attack, according to TASS.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun 13 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 229k
• 8:30 am: Jun Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior -0.4
• 8:30 am: Jun 6 Continuing Claims, est. 1789k, prior 1795k
• 10:00 am: May Leading Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 4:00 pm: Apr Total Net TIC Flows, prior 150.7b
• 4:00 pm: Apr Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 81.3b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Kevin Warsh’s first appearance as Fed Chair yesterday proved to be a momentous one, with a hawkish dot plot and Warsh’s inflation-fighting rhetoric leaving a sense that rate hikes are firmly under consideration. This shift led investors to fully price in a Fed hike by October, with the repricing weighing on risk assets and sending the S&P 500 -1.21% lower. However, futures are erasing most of this decline overnight following news yesterday evening that US and Iranian leaders signed an MoU to end the war.

Starting with the Fed, while the FOMC held rates steady for the fourth meeting in a row, the updated dot plot saw nine of eighteen participants pencil in at least one hike by year-end, and six expecting two hikes or more. A much-shortened post-meeting statement not only dropped the earlier dovish-leaning forward guidance but also included an unambiguous commitment to “deliver price stability”. Warsh then focused on inflation-fighting credibility in his press conference. At the outset he acknowledged the now 5-year-long upside miss on inflation, before repeatedly noting the importance of the Fed delivering on its “price stability” mandate. So, while the new Chair eschewed any policy guidance, including by not submitting his own forecast to the dot plot, he did not push back against the hawkish dot plot signal and did not lean into any potential dovish arguments. Separately, Warsh announced the establishment of task forces in five areas, including communications and the Fed balance sheet.

In all, the meeting left an undeniably more hawkish Fed tone. While our US economists maintain their baseline view that the Fed is likely to keep rates steady, they note that a Fed that does not rely on forward guidance might prove to be nimbler, setting up the potential for earlier rate hikes than anticipated. 

That shifting Fed rhetoric led to a dramatic fed funds repricing, with chances of a September hike rising from 36% to 80% by yesterday’s close and 38bps of hikes being priced in by year-end (+17.2bps on the day). In turn, 2yr Treasury yields (+13.1bps) saw their largest increase in over a year to a 15-month high of 4.19%. However, the 10yr yield was up by a more moderate +4.9bps while 30yr yields actually ended the day -1.2bps lower. That marked the sharpest daily flattening in the Treasury curve since April 9 last year, when Trump paused the Liberation Day tariffs following a sell-off in Treasuries.

The sharp Fed repricing weighed on risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-1.21%) and the NASDAQ (-1.34%) sliding, having been little changed pre-FOMC. The Mag-7 (-2.82%) led the decline, but the losses were broad as the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (429) so far this year. The aggregate decline would have been even worse were it not for the Philly semiconductor index (+1.38%) recovering after Wednesday’s losses. The rates repricing also weighed on assets such as gold (-1.71%) and Bitcoin (-2.15%). On the other hand, the dollar (+0.55%) gained against all G10 currencies.

However, this sell off has partially reversed overnight following news shortly after the US close that the Presidents of the US and Iran had electronically signed an interim deal to end hostilities, with this MoU coming into effect. The signing had initially been expected on Friday, but Axios reported earlier yesterday that this may be brought forward. According to reports, the 14-point MoU foresees a rapid re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with an extendable 60-day period to negotiate a final deal that would cover nuclear issues and broad sanctions relief. The deal also envisages a $300bn fund for the "reconstruction and economic development" of Iran, though Trump stressed yesterday that the US will not be investing in Iran and that Iran would benefit only if it “behaves”. Following the MoU signing, Brent crude is -1.85% lower at $78.08/bbl as I type, more than reversing a +0.75% rise yesterday.

This has led to a positive backdrop for major Asian markets this morning. The Nikkei (+1.82%) and the KOSPI (+1.87%) are leading the gains and pushing to new highs, supported by strong advances in semiconductor stocks. Elsewhere, China’s CSI (+0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.37%) are mixed, while the Hang Seng (-1.70%) is underperforming. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.51%) is trading a little lower. Outside Asia, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.70%) and Nasdaq (+1.09%) are recovering most of Wednesday’s losses, but those on the STOXX 50 (-0.60%) are catching down to the earlier decline on Wall Street. Meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields are down -3.9bps to 4.45% as I type.
In other corners of the market, the Japanese yen is largely unchanged, after falling -0.14% yesterday to a post-2024 low of 160.65 against the dollar. However, that decline was smaller than for other G10 currencies, with the restrained moves coming as the yen reached levels that triggered FX intervention back in late April.

Earlier yesterday, European equities advanced for a second day amidst optimism over the US-Iran deal. The Stoxx 600 (+0.52%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.31%) reached fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.10%) and FTSE 100 (+0.14%) made smaller advances. European bonds were mixed, with 10yr yields on bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (+0.3bps), BTPs (-0.7bps) little changed, while front-end yields moved slightly higher, with those on 2yr bunds up +2.1bps. Investors priced 32bps of ECB hikes by year end (+0.7bps yesterday), with ECB’s Simkus saying he expects “at least one more” rate hike by the ECB and that it’s important to cap inflation expectations.

Gilts were the notable outperformer in the rates space as investors looked forward to today’s Makerfield by-election, with the 10yr yield down -3.7bps to 4.7%. Greater Manchester's Mayor Andy Burnham is standing for the governing Labour Party and is widely expected to win, with results of the by-election expected in the early hours UK time tomorrow. This election could have important implications for markets as Burnham has said he'd stand in a leadership contest to replace incumbent UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer, with Polymarket now pricing a 77% likelihood of Burnham becoming PM by year-end. Burnham has said in the past that Britain shouldn't be "in hock" to the bond markets and suggested looser fiscal policies. However, Burnham has since committed to keeping the fiscal rules of the current government, leading investors to reduce the risk premium that had emerged in gilts and pound sterling.

Otherwise in the UK, the other main event today will be the BoE decision. Investors widely except the central bank to keep rates unchanged, with attention more focused on the vote split (our economists expect 7-2), and any evolution in guidance. This has come against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation, although yesterday’s dovish inflation print for May should boost the MPC’s confidence to buy more time. The print saw headline (+2.8% y/y vs +3.0% y/y expected) and core CPI (+2.6% y/y vs +2.7% y/y) miss expectations, though services (+3.7% y/y vs +3.6% y/y) fell in line with forecasts.

Reviewing yesterday’s other data, we saw a beat for US retail sales in May, with headline retail sales up +0.9% m/m (vs +0.6% m/m expected) and with retail control rising +0.7% m/m (vs +0.4% expected). With core goods CPI having eased in May, the beat for retail control was a real one rather than just due to higher prices.

Finally, rounding off yesterday’s central bank news, Sweden’s Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected, but raised its policy rate forecast for year-end up 5bps to 1.82%.

To the day ahead now, in addition to the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank will also hold their policy decisions. A slate of second-tier data releases includes the US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, initial jobless claims, UK unemployment rate, Italy April current account balance and Eurozone April construction output. Finally, today will see the start of the European Council summit (through June 19). 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:28

Speculation About A SpaceX–Tesla Merger Is Already Growing

SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO has fueled speculation that Elon Musk could take an even bigger step: merging SpaceX with Tesla to create a roughly $4 trillion technology conglomerate spanning rockets, AI, satellites, electric vehicles, robotics, energy, and social media, according to a new report from the New York Times. 

The idea has gained traction among investors, analysts, and even SpaceX executives. Tesla and SpaceX already share personnel, collaborate on major projects, and have business ties through AI development, data centers, batteries, and vehicle sales.

Because Musk controls SpaceX and is Tesla’s largest shareholder, any merger would effectively be a deal with himself, raising concerns about conflicts of interest and shareholder lawsuits. However, legal experts say Texas corporate law—where both companies are now incorporated—makes such challenges difficult. Shareholders generally need to own at least 3% of a company’s stock to sue, a threshold that would require roughly $45 billion in Tesla shares.

The Times notes that approval would still require support from two-thirds of Tesla shareholders. Musk controls about 20% of Tesla’s voting power, and many investors have historically backed his initiatives. Tesla’s board has also frequently aligned with Musk, while SpaceX recently added longtime Musk associate Roelof Botha to its board.

Supporters argue a merger could unlock significant synergies. Tesla’s expertise in chips, AI, and data-center construction could complement SpaceX’s ambitions in orbital infrastructure, satellite communications, and space-based computing. Ark Invest, which owns shares in both companies, has said the combination makes strategic sense, though it would prefer Tesla’s self-driving taxi business to mature first.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has acknowledged potential benefits, saying a merger could simplify Musk’s responsibilities and noting clear overlaps between the companies’ futures: “There’s no question that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX in our futures.”

Opponents could challenge the deal through securities-fraud claims, antitrust scrutiny, or national-security concerns, particularly given the companies’ combined presence in AI, robotics, communications, and space technology. Still, experts believe regulators would face significant hurdles, especially if the combined company continued to perform well.

“As long as he keeps running the business well and the stock price keeps going up, that is a pretty good bar to bringing a securities fraud suit,” said James Spindler, a professor of corporate law at the University of Texas School of Law.

Ultimately, the greatest obstacle may be financial rather than legal. As one corporate-governance expert noted, investors tend to support ambitious deals when markets are rising and shareholders are making money.

Charles Elson, the founding director of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware told The New York Times that Musk “has got this cheering section who will follow him to the gates of Hades or gates of heaven, wherever he leads them.” 

“Basically he’s gotten to the point where he can do almost anything he wishes...” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:15

Congress Reaches Deal On Housing Bill With CBDC Ban Until 2030

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via Cointelegraph, reviewed by Felix Ng.

The US House and Senate have reached a deal to move forward with a housing bill that includes a ban on the Federal Reserve creating a central bank digital currency (CBDC) until 2030.

A bipartisan group of House and Senate leaders released an updated version of the 21st Century Road to Housing Act on Tuesday, which aims to address housing affordability and bans institutional investors from buying existing single-family homes to rent out.

The bill has included a CBDC ban since the Senate passed it in March. The House also passed its version of the bill with strong support in May, but the House and Senate disagreed on some aspects. The Senate has now added further amendments that will be put before the House for a final vote.

The bill is likely to pass quickly and would hand a win to Republicans who have tried to pass a CBDC ban for years, as earlier standalone bills had stalled in Congress. Crypto advocates have long criticized CBDCs, which they see as an attempt by governments to repurpose crypto technology to a centrally-controlled asset.

The deal also means Congress can focus on passing other legislation before the August recess and the November midterm elections, in particular, the crypto-regulating CLARITY Act that many lawmakers have been pushing to advance.

House Republican leaders plan to put the bill up for a vote after the House returns from recess on June 23, two people familiar with the plan told Politico.

The housing bill includes language that says the Federal Reserve may not, directly or indirectly, “issue or create a central bank digital currency or any digital asset that is substantially similar to a central bank digital currency.”

It adds the clause will expire on Dec. 31, 2030, and creates a carveout for crypto stablecoins, or “dollar-denominated currency that is open, permissionless, and private.”

The clause revives much of the language from Republican Representative Tom Emmer’s Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which was introduced in June 2025, passed by the House the next month, but was never picked up in the Senate.

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order in January 2025 banning federal agencies from all work related to CBDCs, saying they threatened “the stability of the financial system, individual privacy, and the sovereignty of the United States.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:05

"The Situation Has Become Unsustainable": Apple To Hike Prices To Offset Soaring Memory Costs

Up until now, Americans primarily hated the flood of data centers popping up around the country like mushrooms (at least those that haven't been canceled or delayed due to regulatory pushback, lack of electricity or outright hostility) because of surging electricity prices and the rising tide of unemployment as chabots gradually make America's white collar workers obsolete. Now they can add surging consumer price inflation to the list of reasons to hate data centers, whose ravenous demand for memory has sent prices to record highs.

According to the WSJ, Apple plans to raise prices on its products to offset the surging costs of memory and storage chips, CEO Tim Cook said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

“Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable,” he said. “We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable.”

Cook declined to offer details on the timing or scale of the planned price increases, nor which products would be affected. Apple’s next major product launch is likely to be in September when it releases the iPhone 18 lineup, expected to include a new foldable iPhone. 

Price increases, especially for Macs and iPads, could come sooner. Apple - which is only the first major consumer electronics company to succumb to surging input prices and pass them through to consumers - raised the starting price of the Mac Mini last month in between launch events.

Skyrocketing demand for memory and storage chips from artificial-intelligence companies has pushed up their cost so much that Apple would have to raise device prices substantially to maintain its profit margins. Passing the higher cost on to consumers while maintaining its profit margin would add about $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro model, or a price increase of more than 20% estimates research firm TechInsights.

While Apple doesn’t report the gross profit margins on individual products, the TechInsights research suggests the margin on the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro was a tidy 47%. To maintain that profit margin for the iPhone 18 Pro, based on estimated costs, the company would have to charge $1,371. Because the company likes standardized pricing, the starting price tag would more likely be $1,299, yielding a 44% gross profit. 

And this calculation doesn’t account for a potential new camera system that will also cost Apple about 50% more than previous models, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In that case, following the same math, Apple could set the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,399—or higher.

A full breakdown of the math behind the increase can be found in this WSJ article. 

Source: WSJ

While chips have emerged as the key bottlenecks for agentic-focused data centers, even more so than GPUs/CPUs, the resulting price surge has prompted manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix to focus production on high end HBM products, while shrinking supply for more modest DRAM products which however are used in virtually every modern product; chips for memory and storage are key components inside most computing devices, including smartphones, laptops, game consoles, medical equipment and even cars. But with AI servers gobbling up rapidly increasing volumes of those chips - with little to none price discrimination since it is the latest batch of bondholders who ends up footing the bill - even a company as rich and powerful as Apple is struggling to secure supply.

Since last year, when Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon began announcing big increases in their capital spending budgets, the prices for memory and storage chips have both quadrupled. TechInsights expects both prices to continue increasing into 2027, unless a flood of Chinese chips hits the market .

Memory, also called DRAM, and storage, also called NAND, are like elements of a mid-20th-century office: The memory is a desk that holds all the papers a worker needs to perform a task, while storage is the filing cabinet that holds everything else. Smartphones use DRAM memory to run apps currently in use; they use NAND storage to file away photos and videos, for example. And since both products were (and are) a pure commodity, there were are substitute makers in the Western world besides the big memory companies. 

Cook said prices for memory and storage are both issues for the company, though he focused on the DRAM market in particular, calling out the increased allocations going to so-called high-bandwidth memory that is used for AI servers.

“There’s less supply at a time when consumers want devices and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases,” said Cook. “We definitely need memory pricing and supply to return to reasonable levels for consumer products. That’s the bottom line.”

Three companies dominate the market for DRAM memory: Samsung and SK Hynix in South Korea, and Micron in the U.S. Makers of NAND storage include those three companies as well as Kioxia and Sandisk. Their stock prices, along with their profits, have exploded over the past twelve months: Micron and SK Hynix shares have risen more than 800% while Kioxia and Sandisk have risen 4,600%.

Seeing the unprecedented demand, memory companies are building more factories: Morgan Stanley forecasts that production capacity for DRAM wafers, the silicon discs on which chips are patterned, will grow 30% by 2027. Yet as suppliers prioritize the specialized AI memory, wafers for consumer tech will fall up to 15% short of demand, Morgan Stanley estimates, although the bank may be conflicted due to its substantial exposure to various companies in the AI ecosystem, which would be terribly vexed if Morgan Stanley were to reach a different conclusion (like, for example, that China - that great commodity crushed - is coming online with massive output in the coming months which will send prices for at least baselines DRAM and NAND sharply lower).

While China has national champion companies in memory and storage, but due to national-security rules, American companies would likely require licenses to work with them. When asked if those restrictions should be loosened, Cook said: “I think everything needs to be on the table,” adding, “I think we should look at all supply.”

He is right: as we showed recently, chips and memory have emerged as one of the biggest drivers of wholesale inflation, and now that it is being passed on to consumers, it is only a matter of time before the inflation-averse White House starts making very loud noises, demanding an artificial limit on how high memory prices can rise.

Apple is late to the party: Companies that make PCs, game consoles, smartphones and more have already raised prices, including Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Nintendo. A consortium of industry associations recently sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick complaining about the overallocation of memory to AI buyers and asking for help to increase supply.

Morgan Stanley estimates a 15% bump for prices of smartphones and PCs in the U.S. this year. This price hike will have a limited impact on the consumer price index, which has only a small weighting for such devices. Yet any price increase on the popular iPhone will immediately grab Washington’s attention. 

Compounding the issue is Apple’s need for additional DRAM to support more AI features, including a rebooted Siri announced last week. And the company has long used NAND storage upgrades to boost profits, charging $100 to $200 for extra increments that cost it just a fraction of that.

In the interview, Cook said Apple stands ready to use its cash reserves to boost memory supply. “We’re willing to use our balance sheet to help be a part of the solution,” he said but added that “obviously, more capacity is needed.” 

Cook declined to offer specifics. It is unclear how Apple could match, let alone beat, the deal terms that AI hyperscalers are offering to lock up supply, and how much of a hit to the company's profits such a move would be. Those companies are signing three-to-five year agreements with huge cash prepayments that Apple is unlikely willing to match, given its long history of disciplined spending.

Cook said Apple wouldn’t use its cash and silicon expertise to build its own memory and storage factories. “We can’t do everything,” said Cook. “We know what we’re good at.”

Apple spends in the low tens of billions of dollars per year on memory and storage, according to people familiar with its costs, making it one of the largest customers in the world. Historically it has used its heft to wring the lowest prices out of suppliers, playing them off each other and leaving them little profit. As AI companies have stormed into the market, suddenly Apple has to wait in line.

Cook said during his time working in the electronics supply chain, from IBM to Compaq to Apple, he had never seen a commodity price swing like the one from the past six months. “This is a hundred-year flood,” said Cook. “I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.”

Luckily, every flood comes with a drain, and as usual it is made in China. A few weeks ago, we reported that "China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Memory Chips", and followed up with a report yesterday that China's DRAM giant CXMT has gotten a final node for the largest mainland IPO since 2022 (as has YMTC, China’s leading NAND flash maker, #4 globally). In short, CHina is preparing to do to this commodity market what it has done to every other one in recent years: unleash massive price cuts to steal market share, and leave the incumbents in the trash heap (just look at Europe's imploding auto manufacturing sector).

Sure enough, we are now getting reports that none other than Google is evaluating procuring DRAM from Chinese vendors.

And once Google can do it, so will everyone else, at which point sit back and watch as the epic memory bubble crashes and burns. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:01

Massive Ukrainian Drone Swarm Attack On Moscow Hits Refinery

While attention this week has been fixed on the lower part of Eurasia, where the U.S. and Iran have finally signed an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin normalizing tanker flows through the critical waterway, the other major conflict area in Eurasia is flashing new warning signs.

Overnight developments in the Russia-Ukraine war suggest the fighting continues to grind on with no near-term off-ramp, as critical energy infrastructure remains in the crosshairs.

Bloomberg reports that Ukraine launched its largest suicide drone barrage against Moscow to date, including strikes reaching the Moscow Oil Refinery.

The drone swarm attack disrupted operations across the capital on Thursday. All four civilian airports in Moscow suspended flights, Sheremetyevo evacuated passengers to shelters, and local authorities shuttered several major highways.

A major refinery owned by Gazprom Neft was hit again after an earlier strike this week set parts of the facility ablaze.

Footage on X shows the drone swarm attack.  

Ukrainian strike on a Russian fuel depot sends a tank airborne from the rooftop blast. pic.twitter.com/z7arERuEJZ

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 18, 2026

Incredible videos coming out of Moscow today.

Wave after wave of Ukrainian suicide drones striking the Moscow Oil Refinery. pic.twitter.com/7KardN2QIx

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 18, 2026

HOLY SMOKES! Moscow right now 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Oxz4pLHIwQ

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) June 18, 2026

Russia's Defense Ministry said air defense systems downed 555 Ukrainian drones across 17 regions and occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian forces said they shot down four of seven Russian ballistic missiles and 212 of 239 drones targeting Kyiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Sumy.

The escalation by both sides comes as President Trump kicked off the G7 summit in France earlier this week, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other G7 leaders.

"We had a very good meeting," Trump told reporters after the meeting. "Russia should make a deal. Russia has lost tremendous amounts of people and so has Ukraine."

With a temporary peace now holding in the Middle East as U.S. and Iranian negotiators begin nuclear talks, the White House's geopolitical focus may be shifting back toward Eastern Europe.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 07:45

Trump And Iran Sign MOU Deal Ahead Of Schedule

Summary:

• The US and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz ahead of schedule, and the agreement is now in effect, Axios reports.
• Trump admits energy stockpiles "run out in about four weeks" 
• MoU signing could be As Early As Today 
• Trump Says Will "Drop Bombs" If Bad Final Deal 
• 14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Released, Set For Friday Signing

Trump Signs Iran Deal Remotely Ahead Of Schedule

Confirming earlier speculation, Axios reports that the U.S. and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the agreement is now in effect. The signing - which took place electronically between Trump, Vance and Ghalibaf - reportedly took place at dinner in France alongside President Emmanuel Macron. 

The signing was supposed to happen in Switzerland on Friday, but a diplomat from a mediating country and a second source familiar told Axios earlier on Wednesday that there had been discussions about signing and implementing it earlier

The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue. Another factor may have been the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU, which it sitll hasn't done officially. The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.

The only "public release" so far consisted of a senior administration official reading the agreement to reporters in a briefing call on Wednesday, after days of confusion about what was in it.

Ahead of the signing, Iran's foreign ministry said the sides had agreed that the MOU should be signed electronically by both presidents. For Iran, the signing represents a major victory as it now stands to receive billions in unfrozen (and other) funds from the US and Gulf sources.

While it's now just a formality, the meeting between the U.S. and Iranian delegations headed by Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is still expected to take place as planned on Friday in Switzerland. They are expected to discuss the launching of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

The signing took place after this remarkable press conference earlier in the day in which Trump tried to justify conceding to Iran's terms:

As BBC's Siavash Ardalan writes, Trump's responses to the reporters' questions to justify the agreement with Iran were bizarre and unprecedented in their own way:

They asked him how he could allow $300 billion in investment in Iran. He said, "We've already inflicted $2 trillion in damage on Iran; $300 billion is nothing in comparison."

They asked why he's giving Iran tens of billions of dollars. He said, "If we don't return their own money to them, other countries will be afraid to put their money in our banks, and then the dollar's position will weaken."

They asked why the missile issue isn't in the agreement. He said, "We've already destroyed 85% of their missiles anyway; the rest are buried underground, and besides, we sell air defense systems to the countries in the region so they won't worry about Iran's missiles."

They asked if he's not worried that Iran will say, "We're only producing nuclear energy for civilian purposes." He said, "You can't tell everyone else to produce electricity with nuclear power while only Iran can't."

Finally, he said, "If we continue sanctioning Iran, 91 million Iranians will die of hunger—what's the point of that, really?"

Oh, and he joked that "If [the Iran deal] works out, I'm going to take the credit; if it doesn't work out, I'm blaming [Vance]."

Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the signing, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, and adds that the US is responsible to force Israel to abide by the deal; the official also said the 60-day period starts today.

Trump Admits

President Trump's comment at the tail end of the G7 press conference about rapidly depleting crude reserves may have been the clearest admission yet of what is really driving the urgent push for an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"We run out of reserves in about four weeks," Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been "bedlam" pic.twitter.com/k45MTI8sNs

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2026

View data here.

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

With global SPRs being aggressively tapped to offset lost Gulf energy production while the Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered, the clock is ticking closer and closer to midnight to fully reopen the waterway to restart the normalization process of tanker transits, which may take months.

The longer Hormuz stays closed, the faster emergency stockpiles are drained, raising the risk of an energy cliff, then a much worse energy shock. That urgency appears to be the real force behind the race to secure an interim agreement with Tehran.

Talk of Accelerated MoU Signing Timeline

Axios reports that US, Iranian, and mediator officials are discussing an accelerated timeline for signing the memorandum of understanding, moving it from Friday to as early as Wednesday, potentially via electronic signature.

More from Axios:

• The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait of Hormuz sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue.
• Another factor could be the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU.
• The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.

Even if the electronic signing occurs early, Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf are still expected to meet on Friday in Switzerland to launch multi-month talks on Iran's nuclear program.

The takeaway here is that both sides appear aligned on quickly reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, as the world faces an energy cliff.

Watch Trump 

President Trump is set to hold a very important press conference at the conclusion of the G7 summit in France.

Trump Tells Reporters At G7: We'll "Go Back To Dropping Bombs" if he Doesn't Like Final Deal 

President Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France that the pending U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is "not final" and warned that if he "doesn't like it ... we'll go back to shooting at them."

"If I don't like it [MoU], we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head," Trump said.

Trump repeated: "If they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head."

He added, "Because they misbehaved for 47 years. But nobody could've made this deal. The Obama-era JCPOA handed them $1.7 billion and gave them hundreds of millions of dollars in a Boeing 757. He tried to bribe his way out. I did not do that."

BREAKING: "If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head."

President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.

"If they don't behave, we'll go right back to… pic.twitter.com/67JRcDptYS

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 17, 2026

The proposed deal, expected to be signed on Friday in Geneva, would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. 

14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing

With US and Iranian officials preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, the conflict is entering the much-needed diplomatic phase to avert a potentially disastrous energy cliff. The MoU would open a 60-day negotiating window aimed at ending the war, restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and hammering out the future of Iran's nuclear program.

Bloomberg published the text of the 14-point draft MoU, offering the clearest look yet at the proposed trade: de-escalation and sanctions relief for Iran, in exchange for a ceasefire across all fronts, commitments on shipping access, and a broader nuclear deal to be finalized by the end of summer.

But Iran's Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed official earlier today, saying some of the MoU published by Bloomberg is inaccurate. The report did not specify the discrepancies. Bloomberg noted that some of the wording could be different between the English and Persian versions.

Below is the text of the 14-point draft MoU:

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent

4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement

5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran's nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.

13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council

Based on the text above, the first take of the MoU appears to be front-loaded economic relief for Tehran in exchange for a ceasefire, a nuclear freeze, and commitments to negotiate hard topics, such as the nuclear program, at a later date.

Who Stands To Benefit:

Tehran benefits most directly because it gets economic oxygen, oil waivers, frozen funds, sanctions relief language, and reduced US military pressure in the region.

Hezbollah and Iran-aligned actors also benefit if "all fronts, including Lebanon" locks in a ceasefire that constrains Israeli operations.

And, of course, the global economy because global shippers benefit if Hormuz reopens and war risk premiums in crude oil collapse.

The Gulf states benefit if the conflict ends because energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. A report on Tuesday said that QatarEnergy was planning to ramp up LNG production in the coming months.

Where is Leverage Lost:

The US loses some coercive leverage once the Hormuz blockade ends, oil waivers are granted, and asset-release mechanisms begin.

Israel loses freedom of action if the agreement binds the Lebanon front and limits further strikes.

Sanctions and hawks lose leverage because the draft moves quickly toward broad sanctions dismantlement.

The urgency behind the MoU and locking in peace talks for 60 days, with a formal signing event at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland on Friday, stems mainly from the world being headed for an energy cliff, as SPRs globally were being drained to offset the loss of Gulf production with the Hormuz chokepoint shuttered. Brent crude futures edged down overnight, trading around $79 a barrel on Wednesday morning.

One of the biggest uncertainties remains the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the critical waterway will reopen permanently and be toll-free, but the MoU suggests the toll-free arrangement may only last through the 60-day negotiation period. Another major uncertainty is Tehran's compliance.

Most Important Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Deal Framework

• The US and Iran plan to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending the war and limiting Iran's nuclear program

• Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the tentative deal is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement

• Iran is set to receive broad financial incentives including the right to sell oil immediately, access to a $300 billion development fund, and eventual access to frozen assets

• The US would secure at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran after the war under the accord Web Content - US 6:43 AM

• The memorandum states only that Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium be 'adequately addressed,' leaving unresolved the fate of enough material to fuel multiple weapons

International Reactions

• Senate Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for details on the deal and signaled Congress will ultimately vote on the final agreement

• European officials are wary of committing naval ships to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz because of confusion about how the work would be done and Trump's strict end-of-week timeline

• China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for greater international support for the next phase of Iran-US peace talks on Tuesday, cautioning that the interim agreement marks only the beginning of a longer peace process

• European allies disagree with Trump's optimism that trade can resume by week's end and have practical questions about what was agreed before committing to de-mining missions

Shipping and Energy Markets

• A third fully-loaded crude tanker, the Suezmax Sonia I capable of hauling about 1 million barrels, left the Iranian port of Chabahar on Tuesday night and crossed the US blockade line heading toward Singapore

• Two oil tankers heading toward Africa U-turned in the Indian Ocean this week, switching destinations to the Middle East as shipowners race to re-position vessels ahead of the possible Strait of Hormuz reopening

• Qatar is beginning to bring some of its LNG tankers back to the Middle East, with at least four empty vessels recently heading toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction

• Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal boosted expectations for a revival in supply

• The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August 1 and a 68% probability before September 1

Oil Market Impact

• The IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, the biggest drop since the Covid pandemic in 2020, as higher fuel prices and disruptions curb buying

• The IEA previously expected a decline of about 420,000 barrels a day, making the revised forecast much deeper than anticipated

• A potential peace deal paves the way for a renewed supply glut in 2027, according to the IEA

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 07:10

Ryan Cohen’s Massive $35 Billion Pay Deal Draws Shareholder Lawsuit

A GameStop shareholder has taken the company to court in an effort to delay a July vote on Ryan Cohen's proposed $35 billion pay package, arguing investors aren't getting the full story before being asked to approve it, according to Yahoo Finance. 

The lawsuit accuses GameStop's board of repeatedly changing the voting process in ways that could tilt the outcome toward management. Among the disputed changes are whether Cohen can vote his own sizable stake and how non-votes are treated when tallying results.

At the center of the fight is a compensation plan that could make Cohen one of the highest-paid executives in history—assuming GameStop reaches a series of extremely ambitious financial targets. Critics say the bigger issue isn't the payout itself, but the company's shifting explanations of how the vote will work.

The complaint alleges GameStop initially suggested independent shareholders would effectively decide the proposal, only to later adopt a framework that gives insiders far more influence over the result. According to the plaintiff, that could allow the package to pass even if most ordinary investors aren't on board.

The complaint says: "GameStop's audacious attempts to reduce the power of its disinterested shareholders — in contrast to its prior public statements and in disregard of its Certificate of Incorporation — must stop. Cohen may want $35 billion. That does not allow him and his board to disenfranchise stockholders and violate Delaware law along the way."

"I obviously want to build something much larger, but I don't benefit unless shareholders benefit," Cohen had said in a recent CNBC interview. 

In other words, shareholders are being asked to sign off on a potentially record-setting payday while still trying to figure out which rules apply—a situation the lawsuit argues is no accident.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 06:55