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James Harden Arrested On Hypocritical Firearms Charge In Texas

Via Gun Owners of America,

NBA player James Harden was arrested over the weekend in Texas for “unlawful carry of a firearm in a motor vehicle.”

But wait, how can carry in a vehicle be unlawful in a state like Texas, where constitutional carry is the law of the land?

On Saturday, June 13 at around 3am, Harden was driving a Mercedes sedan that was part of a group of five vehicles traveling through downtown Houston, Texas.

According to reports, one of the vehicles was pulled over near the 1600 block of Jefferson Street, when Harden pulled up behind it in his vehicle. During the interaction, an officer noticed a handgun sitting in the cupholder of Harden’s vehicle - for which he was arrested under a misdemeanor charge and taken to Harris County Jail after Harden indicated that the handgun was his. 

The charge? “Unlawful carrying of a weapon in a motor vehicle,” a misdemeanor under Texas state law.

But how can that be possible - isn’t Texas a constitutional carry state?

What could possibly qualify as “unlawful carry?”

Well, according to the statute, the carry of a handgun in a vehicle is illegal when:

“The handgun is in plain view, unless the person is 21 years of age or older or is licensed to carry a handgun under Subchapter H, Chapter 411, Government Code, and the handgun is carried in a holster”

Translated from legalese, this means that Texas views any handgun “in plain view” not secured in a holster by someone without a state issued permit to carry, a crime.

A carve out in Texas’s constitutional carry law, the statue says that if a handgun is visible in a vehicle, it must be in a holster.

According to sources writing on the technicalities of the law itself, a firearm not in a holster must be hidden. In a glove box, console, under the seat or in a bag — those are all perfectly legal.

Having the gun out on the seat? Go to jail.

This seems like a massive oversight for a state that by most measurements, is one of the most pro-gun states in the country.

According to reporting, Harden owns the gun legally, and there was no crime committed. While there are conflicting reports about the traffic stop as to whether Harden himself had made a traffic violation or not, the carrying of the firearm itself was legal under Texas law.

The only exception was the technicality of Texas law requiring that handguns in plain view by those without a permit be secured in a holster.

And for that, Harden had to be arrested and taken to jail.

This story got a ton of attention over the weekend because Harden is a famous basketball player, but we at GOA are left thinking, how many other law-abiding gun owners has this exact situation happened to?

Texas must change this law.

That’s why we spoke out about this situation right as it happened.

https://x.com/GunOwners/status/2065904365391454648

If there’s one message, we’d like politicians in Texas to take away from this situation it’s this:

Texas must change its law.

The glaring hypocrisy from a state that has constitutional carry, to be arresting someone for something so pedantic as not having that gun in a holster, in plain view in their own car, committing no crime, is outrageous.

While this may have happened to a celebrity - regular, every day, law-abiding gun owners in Texas are at risk of the exact same situation happening to them.

Lawmakers in Texas should not let that stand.

Change the law. Nobody should be arrested for carrying their firearm simply because of the position the firearm is observed in by law enforcement; it’s a right - not a privilege.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:25

Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle

Needham analysts see increasing congressional support for drones and counter-drone technologies as lawmakers advance the latest FY27 National Defense Authorization Act and related appropriations bills. This is bullish for defense-tech "war unicorns" specializing in drones, robotics, autonomy, and counter-UAS systems, as the Trump war economy shifts into higher gear.

Analyst Austin Bohlig launched Needham's FY27 Defense Budget Tracker, which provides clients with updates on next-generation defense technologies, especially drones, robotics, and autonomous systems.

Bohlig said the defense funding framework remains intact, with about $1.15 trillion in total defense spending and about $21 billion allocated for "defensive and offensive unmanned and autonomous systems."

"While the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, including ~$54B for unmanned-related initiatives, remains the largest outstanding variable, we remain upbeat on the overall funding outlook and believe additional funding for unmanned and autonomous systems is likely," the analyst said, adding:

FY27 Defense Authorization and Appropriations Advance:

We believe Congress made incremental progress over the past two weeks in advancing the FY27 defense budget process. Both the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) and Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved their respective versions of the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), authorizing $1.15T in defense spending and advancing the legislation to their respective chamber floors. On the funding side, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee recently approved a defense spending bill largely consistent with the Administration's proposed FY27 budget, providing ~$1.1T in discretionary funding across the DoW. The bill is scheduled to be considered by the full House Appropriations Committee later this month, while the Senate Appropriations Committee needs to continue to draft its companion legislation in the coming months.

$21B Unmanned Budget Remains Intact as Congress Pushes for Additional Investment:

From an unmanned systems perspective, we believe the initial FY27 legislative drafts reinforce and potentially accelerate the DoW shift toward autonomy and robotic warfare. The President's FY27 discretionary budget request includes ~$21B for autonomous systems spanning UAS, USV, UUV, UGV, C-UAS and enabling autonomy technologies. In our prior FY27 Deep Dive , we identified and analyzed many of the largest known unmanned and autonomy-related programs embedded within the defense budget. That said, we believe congressional testimony and proposed legislative language suggest strong bipartisan support for expanding these investments rather than scaling them back. As a result, we have a high degree of confidence that funding for unmanned and autonomous systems will at least meet the Administration's proposed levels, with a growing possibility for upside as the legislative process continues to unfold.

Proposed $350B Incremental Defense Package Remains Up in the Air:

While the FY27 base defense budget appears to be advancing largely as expected, we believe the more important debate is the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, which includes ~ $54B of incremental funding for autonomous systems through the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) program. This funding has become increasingly politicized over the past several months, particularly after Congress decided not to include it in the 2nd reconciliation package in May, creating uncertainty around the timing and likelihood of passage and, in our view, contributing to investor concerns across the defense sector. Although the timing remains uncertain, we remain upbeat on the ultimate funding outlook and believe there are multiple legislative pathways for the DoW to access incremental funding should the current reconciliation approach encounter delays.

Separately, Breaking Defense has reported that the defense spending bill would create a combatant command for drones, reinforcing the congressional push toward unmanned systems as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have spooked the U.S. military into the early chapters of a drone and counter-drone procurement super cycle. The modern battlefield has forever changed.

This is great news for war unicorns operating in the space, with years of tailwinds almost certainly ahead.

Related:

• JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms

• Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As 'War Unicorns' Reshape Defense Tech

• "Flying Beer Cooler": Pentagon's Next Kamikaze Drone Ushers In Era Of Cheap Mass-Produced Airpower

Professional subscribers can read much more on military tech at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:00

Rare Earth Stocks Pop After G7 Unveils Plan To Reduce Dependence On China For Critical Minerals

Rare earth stocks spiked on Wednesday after G7 leaders agreed to strengthen coordination on critical minerals as they seek to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains, according to a new report from Reuters.

Without naming China directly, the group set a goal of limiting reliance on any single external supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to less than 60% by 2030, with a longer-term target of 50%.

Reuters reports that to support that effort, the G7 plans to align critical mineral stockpiling strategies, beginning with lithium and nickel, and establish a new platform for policy coordination, data sharing, market monitoring, and crisis response. The platform will work closely with the International Energy Agency, which will provide analysis and early warnings of supply disruptions and market distortions.

The group also pledged to support investment across the entire critical minerals supply chain—from mining and processing to manufacturing—through development finance institutions, export credit agencies, and private-sector partnerships. Since the start of 2026, governments have announced 195 related projects totaling €64 billion ($74 billion) in investment.

Neha Mukherjee, research manager at consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence commented: "The G7 statement is an important signal of intent, but the pace of diversification will ultimately depend on whether policy support translates into investment ​across the midstream and downstream parts of the value chain."

Despite the commitments, analysts note that diversification will be difficult, particularly because China controls about 90% of global processed rare earth and permanent magnet production. The G7 is also exploring measures such as joint procurement, subsidies, quotas, and price-support mechanisms, while expanding domestic stockpiles and increasing recycling capacity to make recycled materials a significant share of critical mineral consumption by 2030.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:00

Silt, Anchovies, And Economic Disaster

Authored by Matt Badiali via DailyReckoning.com,

Silt and anchovy scales.

Sometimes the greatest scientific discoveries start with the simplest things.

Today, meteorologists are worried about a severe global event. It’s part of an atmospheric pattern that wasn’t recognized until the late 1960’s. But it has had major economic impact over the decades. And it will have an impact this year if it’s as bad as predicted.

But the story starts with marine mud and frustrated fishermen.

Geologists saw something odd in sediment cores taken off the West coast of South America. The cores looked like layer cakes. One layer of mud, another of fish scales…repeated through the core.

The layers reflect massive shifts in weather patterns. But it wasn’t understood until the late 1960’s. That’s when Jacob Bjerknes, a Norwegian American meteorologist, linked the marine sediment record with atmospheric observations. He recognized that the ocean and atmosphere acted in a feedback loop that had dramatic impacts on the land.

The formal term is the El Niño, Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It gets its name from Peruvian fisherman. They called the warm currents that sometimes occurred around Christmas “El Niño”.

What Bjerknes described was the change in surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. When warm water hits Peru around Christmas, it rains. A lot. The rivers flood down from the mountains and drop an impressive amount of sediment.

The image below shows the warm Pacific from the 1998 El Niño event, compared to the cool period (called La Niña):

The Peruvian fishermen hated these warm currents, because the fishing was terrible. The warm water and strong rains disrupted the local food chain.

Normally, the cold, nutrient rich Humboldt current wells up against the coast. The nutrients feed massive schools of anchoveta and other bait fish. During these periods, the sediments become silvery layers of fish scales and biological debris.

That’s how geologists learned to track atmospheric events. It was a huge breakthrough for scientists. But it also had economic implications.

Major Impact

In modern times, two massive El Niño’s, in 1972 and again in 1982, devastated fish populations. Before 1972, Peru was the largest fishing nation in the world. In 1970, the country caught 12 million metric tons of anchoveta. Then a massive El Niño hit and crushed the fishing industry. The combination of over-fishing (to make up the catch) and the weather devastated the fishery.  In 1973, they landed 2 million metric tons. This caused a global fish-meal crisis. It drove agricultural feed up 250%.

However, the 1972 version was just a warmup. The real monster El Niño hit in 1982. This was an unprecedented weather disaster. Warm tropical waters pushed further south than ever before. The warmth stayed so long that it either killed off or forced cold water fish to migrate to other locations.

This time, the damage wasn’t limited to South America. Fishermen along the eastern side of the Pacific saw reduced catches of critical species. Tuna, smelt, mahi mahi, barracuda and other species suddenly show up in places they are never seen.

Here’s what the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration says about strong El Niño and fish populations in California:

A major consequence of an El Niño is the loss of commercially important species where they traditionally occur. A notable example is the movement of the market squid to cooler waters to the north, away from established fisheries in California. This phenomenon is also true for many rockfish species that move from nearshore areas to deeper or more northerly and cooler waters. Pacific whiting likewise shift northward from their spawning and feeding areas off California, Oregon, and Washington to the more temperate latitudes centered off Vancouver Island.

And that’s only part of the economic impact of a strong El Niño. As we mentioned earlier, El Niño brings rain to the west coast of Peru. That can disrupt mining, along with fishing. But it does more than that. Here’s a general map of weather patterns associated with El Niño (from NOAA.gov):

The international monetary fund (IMF) tracked the real impact of El Niño on GDP growth around the world. They found that countries like Australia, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Peru, and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño.

The study also noted that El Niño brings strong storms to Chile, which disrupts copper mining. Japan sees more typhoon strikes.

El Niño does have some benefits for North America. California usually gets more rain, which helps the farmers. The Northeast sees warmer winters, so it uses less energy. And the east coast sees fewer hurricanes. In fact, there are zero recorded major hurricane strikes on the East Coast of the U.S. during El Niño…except Florida.

Hurricane Andrew struck Miami as a massive category five storm in August 1992. It’s unusual to have the first named storm that late in hurricane season.

If the forecast severe El Niño comes to pass, we can expect food inflation on things grown internationally. If history is correct, coffee, palm oil, and wheat will go up in price. And we can expect some local problems from flooding and severe weather.

It’s not enough to speculate on just yet, but there could be some short-term trades from this oddball weather phenomenon. We’ll keep an eye out.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:40

"Chinese Empire Is Next": Townsend Warns Beijing's Energy Dominance Is Rewriting The Global Order

Veteran energy economist Dr. Anas Alhajji said during last night’s ZeroHedge debate that Iranian crude trading activity reflects a serious peace deal sticking. Alhajji joined Jeff Currie, co-chair of Abaxx Exchange, and Erik Townsend of Macro Voices to weigh in on the Iran deal’s implications for oil prices, which he believes are poised for a significant decline. Townsend, meanwhile, thinks China will come out on top. 

Currie, unlike Alhajji, remains bullish crude due to supply constraints and, assuming Hormuz does open Friday, there is still a 6-week lag before ships begin reaching their destination. That… and there’s no telling what the Israelis will do given that hardliners are already voicing their plans to continue attacking Lebanon, violating a core component of the ceasefire.

Here were some highlights though we recommend the full discussion included at the end:

Alhajji: Iran Deal Is Serious

Alhajji argued the current ceasefire, even if tested, is likely serious.

"The question is, if this deal does not work, what is the default?" Alhajji asked. "It seems that if we have a default, basically, we are going to end up with a status quo where there is no war, no peace," he said. "I don't think we are going to revert to a war. It will be a default somehow of a status quo with attacks from time to time."

Tehran seems to credibly want a lasting peace, Alhajji said, judging by their ceasing of shadow discount sales to China.

"I'm going to tell you something that tells me that this is really serious," he said. "If we go back and study the Iranian behavior, now the market is telling us that Iranians are not able to export most of their oil because of the blockade. Well, that is not the case because if you go back to the era before the negotiations, the Iranians were able to smuggle.”

“When they are certain that there will be a solution, they look at it this way: ‘So, okay, either I sell my own oil to China at 40% discount… Or I wait just for a month or a few weeks, I'm going to get world price.’”

The fact that the Iranians are waiting for worldwide sales indicates a genuine anticipation that a peace deal is tangible.

pic.twitter.com/1Yjv1kYBe0

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026 The Chinese Century?

Host Erik Townsend argued that the current Hormuz crisis may highlight a strategic advantage China has spent decades building:

"I'm sorry, I know a lot of Americans don't want to hear this, but sometimes the truth hurts. China has by far, by far, the most advanced nuclear energy program in the world. They've done more to diversify their energy resources. They've been smarter than anyone else, including us, about planning."

Referencing Currie's recent Carlyle Group research paper called the "New Joule Order," Townsend suggested that energy strategy ultimately shapes geopolitical power.

"Who's in charge of the world really derives from military power," he said. "Military power derives from energy dominance. Energy dominance derives from energy strategy and energy policy. And China's is a hell of a lot better than anybody else's, including ours."

“We went from the British Empire to the American Empire… I think the Chinese Empire is next and I think energy policy is what takes them there."

Currie agreed that the existing global framework is reaching an inflection point, though he argued the next era will be defined by a different form of energy competition.

"I definitely think that we ran the course of Bretton Woods, which was defined by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. dollar, and the global oil trade," Currie said. "I think it's come to a head right now and we need to replace it."

pic.twitter.com/xgSNhQPV6M

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026

Watch the full debate below, on YouTube, or listen on Spotify.

https://t.co/z5iLukR1a7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:20

Trucking Group Asks Federal Court To Strip New York, California Of CDL Authority

Authored by Noi Mahoney via FreightWaves,

The Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC) has filed a court petition seeking to force federal regulators to decertify the commercial driver’s license programs of New York and California.

The Small Business in Transportation Coalition said the U.S. Department of Transportation has failed to enforce federal law after finding states out of compliance. (Photo: Jim Alen/Freightwaves)

The petition, filed June 10, asks the court to review actions by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration and the U.S. Department of Transportation and order the agencies to revoke the authority of New York and California to issue CDLs, escalating a dispute over immigration-related licensing policies and English-language proficiency requirements for commercial drivers.

SBTC argues that FMCSA has already determined both states were in “substantial noncompliance” with federal CDL regulations and therefore must be decertified under federal law. The organization contends that federal statutes require the transportation secretary to prohibit a state from issuing CDLs once such a determination is made.

The filing, made in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, specifically challenges FMCSA’s April 16 final determination regarding New York and also seeks relief related to a Jan. 7 determination involving California.

SBTC alleges the agency improperly failed to act on a petition it submitted in May 2025 requesting decertification orders against several states, including New York and California.

Virginia crash cited in petition

The lawsuit comes less than two weeks after a fatal bus crash on Interstate 95 in Virginia that killed five people and injured dozens more.

According to the court filing, SBTC points to the May 29 crash as evidence that stronger enforcement of federal licensing standards is needed. The organization alleges the bus driver involved held a New York-issued CDL despite concerns about English-language proficiency.

The crash involved a bus operated by E&P Travel Inc. Federal investigators are examining the company’s connections to a broader network of bus operators in the Northeast, according to CBS News. The driver, identified by CBS News as Jing S. Dong of Staten Island, New York, faces five felony involuntary manslaughter charges.

Compliance findings at center of dispute

SBTC’s petition centers on FMCSA’s nationwide review of state CDL programs following changes to federal rules governing non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses.

The coalition says FMCSA’s audits initially identified 24 states and the District of Columbia as being in substantial noncompliance with federal CDL requirements. According to the filing, New York and California ultimately received final notices of substantial noncompliance after federal reviews of their handling of non-domiciled CDL and permit applications.

The petition alleges New York’s noncompliance rate exceeded 55%, while California’s was about 25% during federal audits. SBTC argues those findings legally trigger mandatory decertification orders.

FMCSA previously warned multiple states that they could face funding consequences or additional enforcement actions if they failed to comply with federal CDL standards for non-domiciled drivers.

Latest chapter in broader legal battle

The lawsuit follows a separate high-profile challenge brought by Florida against California and Washington.

In May, the U.S. Supreme Court declined Florida’s request to file an original-action lawsuit alleging California and Washington violated federal law by issuing CDLs to undocumented immigrants.

The case stemmed from a fatal crash on Florida’s Turnpike involving a truck driver who reportedly held a California-issued CDL and had previously been licensed in Washington.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:00

Trump Invokes Defense Production Act As US Moves To Rebuild Weapons Stockpiles

The Trump administration is seeking a major increase in defense spending while simultaneously using executive authority to accelerate weapons production, reflecting growing concern over U.S. munitions inventories after the war with Iran, according to NBC.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Senate Republicans this week to rally support for a proposed $350 billion defense package, much of which would be directed toward replenishing missile and weapons stockpiles.

According to NBC, Sen. John Cornyn said the Pentagon is “running short of funding they need in order to acquire the weapons and missiles and things like that that they need to protect the nation.”

While Republicans are broadly supportive, some lawmakers have signaled they want a clearer justification for the spending, particularly as debate continues over the costs and consequences of the Iran conflict.

Behind the scenes, President Donald Trump has also moved to boost production capacity. Last week, he quietly invoked the Defense Production Act, a Cold War-era law that allows the federal government to prioritize contracts and coordinate industry efforts to expand critical manufacturing.

In a June 11 memo, Trump argued that production bottlenecks and supply-chain challenges could undermine military readiness, writing, “I hereby find that conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs.”

The administration has reportedly been discussing the possibility of using the law since the early stages of the conflict.

The decision comes despite public assurances from administration officials that weapons supplies remain adequate.

Hegseth recently dismissed reports of shortages, saying, “Our stockpiles are strong and they will only get stronger in the future.”

Nevertheless, the administration’s push for both emergency production measures and additional funding suggests officials are preparing for a sustained effort to rebuild inventories and strengthen long-term defense readiness.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:40

Of The Elite, By The Elite, For The Elite

Authored by John C. Eastman via The American Mind,

For generations, Democrats have portrayed themselves as the party of ordinary Americans - factory workers, waitresses, truck drivers, police officers, construction workers, and middle-class families trying to get ahead. Yet one of the most striking features of modern American politics is how often Democrat leaders, activists, and media allies seem genuinely baffled by the very people they claim to represent.

The latest example comes from Washington Post columnist Monica Hesse, whose reaction to President Trump’s appearance at a packed UFC event on the White House lawn last weekend revealed a familiar pattern among America’s cultural elites. To tens of millions of Americans, UFC is simply entertainment. It is competitive, exciting, patriotic, and increasingly mainstream.

To Hesse and myriad other journalists and political commentators, however, its popularity seems to require explanation - as though they are studying the customs of a distant tribe.

That reaction says far more about elite America than it does about UFC fans, and few institutions better embody elite opinion than the modern Democrat Party.

The inability to understand ordinary Americans has become a recurring problem for Democrats. Consider one of the most famous campaign images in modern history. In 1988, Democrat presidential nominee Michael Dukakis climbed into a tank in an effort to project foreign policy credibility. Though the campaign intended the image to demonstrate Dukakis’s strength and command in order to reassure wary voters, the photograph instead became a political disaster.

To many Americans, Dukakis did not look like a commander-in-chief - he looked like Alfred E. Neuman from MAD magazine, wearing an oversized helmet and generally appearing out of his element. The embarrassing image became iconic because it captured something larger than a single campaign mistake: a cohort of American elites - consultants, strategists, and media professionals - who apparently thought the photo was a good idea.

The same kind of blindness occasionally appears among establishment Republicans as well. George H.W. Bush’s comments upon seeing a new and improved grocery store scanner became a symbol - fairly or unfairly - of a politician disconnected from everyday life. But while both parties have produced elite figures detached from ordinary concerns, the problem is far more pronounced today on the Left.

Indeed, many of the institutions that now shape Democrat politics are populated almost exclusively by people who live, work, and socialize within a remarkably narrow slice of America. They attend the same universities, read the same publications, and live in the same metropolitan areas. They follow the same social-media accounts. Their children attend the same schools, and their friends share the same political and cultural assumptions.

And increasingly, they seem unable to comprehend how other Americans think.

When Hillary Clinton dismissed millions of voters as a “basket of deplorables,” many Americans viewed the comment not as a gaffe but as a rare moment of honesty. It reflected a prevailing attitude among Democrats, and elites more broadly, that disagreement could be explained only by ignorance, prejudice, or moral deficiency.

President Biden repeatedly displayed a similar tendency. During the 2024 campaign (before he was ousted), he and his allies often portrayed concerns about illegal immigration, inflation, crime, and cultural change as either exaggerated or illegitimate, even as polling showed those issues dominating voters’ concerns. Time and again, Democrat leaders appeared surprised that Americans cared more about grocery prices and border security than about the priorities emphasized by elite institutions.

Vice President Kamala Harris often suffered from the same disconnect. Her public appearances frequently projected the impression that she was speaking to an audience of policy experts rather than to working Americans -when she was not donning fake accents, that is. Her campaign’s struggles were not merely ideological; they were cultural. Many voters simply concluded that she did not understand their lives.

The pattern extends well beyond politicians.

Millions of Americans attend NASCAR races, pack country music concerts, and watch UFC fights. Elite commentators scoff and express bewilderment in response. Millions more display American flags, fill church pews, and worry about rising crime and open borders. Too often, the response from elite circles is not curiosity but contempt.

The Democrat Party once excelled at connecting with ordinary Americans precisely because it better understood their views. Franklin Roosevelt, known as a “traitor to his class,” spoke the language of workers because he wanted them to be part of the Democrats’ coalition for generations. Harry Truman connected with voters because he shared many of their instincts. Even Bill Clinton possessed an intuitive feel for middle-class anxieties and aspirations.

Today’s Democrat coalition increasingly draws its leadership from elite universities, media organizations, nonprofits, foundations, government bureaucracies, and professional-class enclaves. These institutions exercise enormous cultural influence, but they are not representative of America as a whole.

As a result, Democrats increasingly mistake the views traded in faculty lounges, newsroom editorial meetings, and Washington policy conferences for the views held around kitchen tables. That confusion helps explain their shock at one political surprise after another, especially Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024.

Democrat strategists express astonishment after yet another batch of election results defies their expectations. Panels of “experts” search for explanations, and reports are circulated that blame political circumstances or voters’ various “isms.” But the possibility that the Democrats have lost touch with ordinary Americans is rarely, if ever, considered.

A political movement cannot represent people it does not understand. And it cannot understand the views of many Americans, whom it increasingly views with a mixture of confusion, suspicion, and disdain. For a party that still considers itself the party of the people, that is a major problem it has yet to reckon with.

And it is also a problem for America as a whole. A healthy republic depends on officeholders who can understand - and respect - the culture and traditions of their fellow citizens, even when they do not share them. When America’s governing and cultural elites lose the ability to see the nation as it actually is, they make poorer decisions, deepen political divisions, and erode the mutual trust on which self-government depends.

A republic cannot long endure if those who wield influence come to view ordinary Americans not as fellow citizens to be understood but as strangers to be belittled and ignored.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:20

Fed Holds Rates Unchanged (As Expected), 'Dots' Signal Hawkish Bias As Warsh Takes Over

Tl;dr: No rate change (as expected) but a dramatically hawkish shift in The Fed's bias (9 members seeing at least one hike this year). Statement smilled down dramatically, also biases towards hawkish focus on price stability (inflation) over employment: "The Committee will deliver price stability".

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed.” - BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting (Jay Powell's final one as Fed Chair) on April 29th, markets have shifted sharply with oil plunging (along with weakness in gold and bitcoin) while stocks have rallied sharply (shrugging off a brief dip) with bonds unchanged and the dollar modestly stronger...

The US macro-economic data has surprised considerably to the upside since the last FOMC (with strong 'hard' and 'soft' data and the labor market showing significant resilience)...

With both Growth and Inflation signals rising (a dilemma for The Fed)...

Additionally, the market has shifted significantly more hawkish since the last FOMC (still pricing cuts) and obviously dramatically more hawkish since the start of the war...

But this Fed meeting is different as Kevin Warsh takes the mantle from Jay Powell (who remains on the board) as Fed Chair with the key risk for markets is that expectations for a dovish Warsh have become elevated.

So What Did The Fed Do?

The Fed left rates unchanged as expected:

• FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE

• NO DISSENTS

And the statement was dramatically shortened, entirely dropping paragraph 4:

• FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS

No forward guidance in the statement

Read the full red-line below:

Balance Sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday adjusted the language of its policy implementation note to reflect that it instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to increase its purchases of Treasury bills “when appropriate.”

• According to the implementation note FOMC instructed, “When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”

• That compares with the April memo, which said: “Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”

The 'Dots'

The 'Dots' are clearly signaling an end to the 'easing bias' of the prior Fed: with nine members seeing at least one rate hike this year:

2026 dot distribution changes:

• 3 rate-hikes: from 0 to 1

• 2 rate-hikes: from 0 to 5

• 1 rate-hike: from 0 to 3

• No rate change: from 7 to 8

• 1 rate cut: from 7 to 1

• 2 rate cuts: from 2 to 0

• 3 rate cuts: from 2 to 0

• 4 rate-cuts: from 1 (Stephen Miran) to 0

Only 18 of 19 officials submitted their 'dots' with some suggesting Warsh himself did not contribute

Could this be the last time we see the 'Dots' (with Warsh's notable rejection of forward guidance)?

Economic Projections

The new inflation forecasts are really not good.

Core PCE is seen rising 3.3% this year, well above the 2.7% penciled in back in March.

That means no disinflation from right now, because the most recent core inflation reading was indeed 3.3%.

But, the median forecast of those submitting projections shows inflation slowing to 2.5% next year, but still notably up on 2.2% last time.

Growth is also seen slowing...

...but unemployment improving

All eyes now on Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair which is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.

Will Trump react to the lack of a rate-cut?

Will be ironic if Trump fires Warsh before EOD after he doesn't cut

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:50

Crypto Scammers Using Couriers To Collect Cash, Avoid Detection: FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Crypto scammers are using couriers to pick up cash from victims in person to avoid being traced by banks, the FBI is warning.

The fraudsters first approach targets, typically seniors, with business or romantic proposals via social media, texts, or a fake cryptocurrency investment profile, the bureau said in a June 15 public service announcement alert.

“After establishing a relationship with the victim, the scammer suggests investing in cryptocurrency and instructs the victim to download specific cryptocurrency trading applications and create investment accounts.”

Typically, victims are asked to send wire transfers to various domestic and international bank accounts under the guise of deposit accounts.

They get access to websites showing fictitious returns on investment, which entices them to deposit even more money.

Legitimate financial institutions often flag such transfers as suspicious and block them. To bypass this, scammers are instructing victims to hand over money to fake investment accounts via in-person cash pickups.

The victims are led to believe the money they send will be deposited into their investment accounts.

“Once the cash pickup occurs and the courier departs, victims can see an increase in deposits in their virtual wallet displayed on their account with the scammer’s investment platform,” the FBI said.

“When the victim attempts to withdraw their perceived profits, scammers will begin the loop over by forcing the victim to pay fraudulent taxes and penalties, again using couriers for cash pickups to perpetrate the fraud.”

In 2024 the FBI issued an alert about couriers being used by scammers who had convinced their victims into liquidating their assets into cash or precious metals.

The fraudsters, posing as tech support or government officials, would insist such an action was necessary to protect the target’s funds because their financial accounts were hacked or at risk of being hacked.

In its latest alert, the FBI advised people to protect their personal information, such as banking details, and to never meet with unknown individuals to hand over cash or other valuables as part of any investment scheme.

“Beware of ‘love bombing,’ a social manipulation technique employed by online scammers and other malicious actors wherein a victim is quickly showered with praise, attention, and manipulated to feel trust and intimacy with a person prior to having their lowered guard exploited by a scam or other malicious behavior,” the agency said.

According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, published in April, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received 181,565 complaints regarding various cryptocurrency schemes last year, up 21 percent from 2024.

Losses from these complaints totaled over $11.36 billion. The average loss was $62,604, and 18,589 people lost more than $100,000 each.

The largest group of complaints filed were made by people over the age of 60. They also suffered the highest losses, totaling more than $4.43 billion.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:45

Democrat Politicians Seethe After Baseball Players "Deface" Pride Night With Bible Verses

Recently we reported on the MLB's angry response to three San Francisco Giants players who scribbled bible verses across their "Pride Night" uniforms in a silent protest.  The incident takes place in the midst of a rising tide of popular opposition to the woke movement's political authoritarianism.  Gay pride has become synonymous with the liberal "cry-bully":  Activists who try to assert social dominance over others then play the victim when people fight back.

California State Senator and rabid gay activist Scott Wiener is the epitome of a typical woke cry-bully.  He is perhaps best known as an advocate for the "kink community" and his defense of gender treatments (hormones and sex change surgeries) for children.  He is also a militant supporter of sexualized LGBT propaganda in public schools. 

Wiener has criticized medical facilities that refuse to give gender bending treatments to people under 19 years of age and supported measures to make California a "transgender safe haven".

It's therefore not surprising that Wiener is enraged by anything Christian or biblical entering his big gay domain, and he had a lot to say about the Giant's players who defiled his precious Pride Night. 

Senator Wiener on MAGA Homophobic Backlash Against Major League Baseball:

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to…

— Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 16, 2026

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to ‘take back’ the rainbow from LGBTQ people. The players could have displayed this passage any night of the year but chose to do it only on Pride Night.

The Giants, sadly, took no action in response, which is inconsistent with the Giants’ longstanding support for our LGBTQ community. Major League Baseball then warned the players that MLB rules bar defacement of uniforms. The Giants should publicly commit to enforcing rules around uniform defacement and should not effectively create a homophobia exemption to those rules..."

The state senator acts as if the players broke some kind of law.  Baseball club rules are private business arrangements, not statutes that require the the frantic complaints of a homosexual Karen.  That said, Wiener's response to this event is quite revealing. 

Biblical scripture references are not "defacement", at least not of anything sacred.  But to Wiener, the act is the same as if someone burned a Bible or a Koran.  The woke seething over such a minor thing makes it clear that the LGBT movement is not a civil rights movement; that ended decades ago.  Today, the LGBT movement is a political supremacy movement, and prominent athletes have every right to openly oppose it.  

The pride event featured a number of LGBT promotions, including 10 same-sex married couples renewing their vows before the first pitch (what this has to do with baseball is unclear).  Interestingly, the crowd turnout for Pride Night games has been crashing in the past couple years.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Matt Dorsey, who is openly gay and claims to be a "person of faith", complained on social media about the bible verses.  He called the incident “disappointing in several respects” and he views the players as “problematically undisciplined".  He asserts that professional athletes’ uniforms are not a “canvas for individual self-expression - especially about politics.”   

This issue is, of course, a matter between the players and their employers, not a matter of politics.  However, the woke movement, which is now in decline, views their takeover of American sports as a particularly important coup.  The traditionally masculine industry is now a platform to spread gay Marxist gender theory.  No one would have believed it a couple decades ago, and the political left is desperate not to lose ground in this arena of the culture war. 

D-backs pitcher Ryan Thompson, who is a proclaimed Christian, spoke on the MLB warning SF Giants players who wrote Bible verses on Pride Night caps:

"I think there's a perceived negativity with this stuff. Landen Roupp wrote a verse on his hat that means he's anti something.… pic.twitter.com/SFFJARW6v6

— Blake Niemann (@Blakes_Take2) June 17, 2026

At bottom, leftists view American culture as a series of platforms to be targeted and co-opted.  They were wildly successful for around a decade, but things are changing rapidly now that the general public is aware of the agenda.  Activist politicians like Wiener are angry about a bible verse on a baseball cap because, to them, this is a symbol of their shrinking power over the common discourse. 

The notion of a political movement rooted in forcing the populace to celebrate the aberrant sexual hobbies of its members is not winning the hearts and minds of anyone.  It's doing the opposite.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:25

First Iranian Oil Moves Past US Blockade Ahead Of Deal Signing

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Iran’s first observed crude oil exports in two months have moved past the US blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz in a sign that Iran is wasting no time to take advantage of the tentative deal with the United States.

Following the announcement of the deal this weekend, and ahead of a formal signing ceremony expected in Switzerland on Friday, at least three Iranian crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz and departed from the region moving past the U.S. blockade so far this week, tanker-tracking firms have said.

TankerTrackers.com has estimated through AIS data corroborated by satellite imagery that at least two supertankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have moved through the U.S. blockade. The very large crude carriers (VLCCs), named Diona and Hero2, have kade perimeter carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them, TankerTrackers.com said.

“These are Iran's first crude oil exports in two months,” the ship-tracking service said.

BREAKING: CRUDE OIL DEPARTS IRAN FOLLOWING A TWO MONTH LONG NAVY BLOCKADE

According to AIS data which we corroborated yesterday (2026-06-15) by satellite imagery, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have… pic.twitter.com/tSesQTcC6K

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) June 16, 2026

Another tanker of the National Iranian Tanker Company, the Stream, is approaching the U.S. blockade line from the exclusive economic zone of Pakistan, where she spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran, according to TankerTrackers.com.

Kpler has observed a third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude that exited the blockade line on Wednesday.

“Iran is wasting no time getting its tankers back into circulation,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

The VLCC Dan of the NITC has left the area near the Riau archipelago where it has been dark since May 23 and is now heading to Iran for loading, Bockmann added.

The Iranian oil tanker traffic is intensifying, with the deal that would launch 60-day negotiations set to be signed in Geneva on Friday. In addition, Iran is preparing to take advantage of the U.S. allowing Iranian oil sales immediately upon signing of the agreement. Under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran, Tehran will be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the details of the deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:05

"The Kevin Warsh Era Has Arrived With A Bang": Wall Street Reacts To Warsh's First FOMC

Below is a snapshot of several kneejerk reactions from some Wall street economists, strategists and traders:

Anna Wong, head economist at Bloomberg:

“The Kevin Warsh era has arrived with a bang – in the form of a dramatically shortened FOMC policy statement and a dot plot that didn’t contain any dot from the chairman himself. That marks a break from the eras of former chairs Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke. But the rest of the committee sent an equally strong signal: They want rate hikes. Half of the committee penciled in hikes this year, while the other half anticipates holding rates steady or cutting once. That means Warsh could play a key role in influencing the direction of rates. We no longer expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points later this year.”

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis

"Thinks this is overall a hawkish move -- rates steady, easing biased removed, no dissents. The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability….all in all, a hawkish statement... The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability…. all in all, a hawkish statement.”"

Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"Today’s meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data. Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data.”

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Economics

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed. Warsh’s stamp on the statement seems evident, with language moving closer to the style used before the Global Financial Crisis. The effort to make the Fed less transparent may reduce day-to-day volatility, but it risks larger jumps when the Fed’s reaction function or economic data surprise markets... “We thought Warsh might be diplomatic in taking on his post as Fed chair, and the creation of these task forces allows for shifts in the way the central bank functions, while giving everyone within the building a voice and giving him a means to express his own views while assessing the those of others.””

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management

“Warsh turned the table over in the Eccles Building with a radical simplification of the Fed’s policy announcement. By doing this, he’s actually inviting more Fed-speak, not less. Now every Fed President will fill the gap left by the punchy policy announcement. This may backfire on Warsh.”

David Wilcox, Bloomberg Economics: 

"The committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. That’s notable, because the statement didn’t have to address it -- and analysts had been thinking one way Warsh could slim down the Fed’s balance sheet would be to revert from ample reserves to scarce reserves,” Wilcox said. “Today’s statement suggests they’re not doing that -- at least not right off the bat.”

Marvin Loh, State Street

“The biggest initial message from Warsh is that the commutations process is changing if we look at the wholesale changes to the policy statement. Bare bones is an understatement and for a market that has become accustomed to extensive Fed communications, we may need to read between the lines more closely with less lines available. We can now wonder how long the presser will last.”

Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers

“The market moves reflect a repricing of Fed credibility and independence. Inflation is clearly back at the center of the reaction function of the central bank and someone is at its helm. This reinforces a higher-for-longer real rate environment.”

Developing

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:48

California Has Gay-Certification Program To Tap Into $633 Million For "LGBT" Businesses

Authored by Christopher F. Rufo & Austen Hufford via City Journal,

Americans are used to handouts for favored groups. Affirmative action in university admissions, corporate “diversity” initiatives, and minority-owned contracting requirements direct opportunities, resources, and contracts to supposedly “oppressed” groups, such as women, Native Americans, blacks, and Hispanics.

In California, state Democrats have embraced another kind of favoritism: contracts for state-certified gay-owned businesses.

The scheme operates through the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which regulates privately owned utility companies. California utilities spent more than $43 billion in 2024 on contractors—fuel suppliers, surveyors, engineers, and others—whose work helps deliver water, gas, electricity, and internet service to California’s 39 million residents.

In 1986, Governor George Deukmejian signed Assembly Bill 3678, which required certain CPUC-regulated utilities to submit annual “plans” for buying goods and services from woman- and minority-owned companies. Two years later, CPUC created its “Supplier Diversity Program,” which would enforce the law and set contracting “goals” for large utilities.

Under a series of Democratic governors, the program has expanded to include gay-owned businesses. In September 2014, then-Governor Jerry Brown signed legislation requiring CPUC to recognize “LGBT-owned businesses” as eligible for supplier-diversity benefits. Five years later, Governor Gavin Newsom expanded the program further, “encouraging” other companies involved in the energy sector to award contracts to gay-owned firms.

In the years that followed, CPUC faced activist pressure as it implemented the gay expansion. BuildOUT California, a since-rebranded LGBT building-industry organization, sent a letter to the commission arguing that “homophobia” existed within “the ranks of the utility companies.” The state’s legislative LGBTQ caucus suggested in a 2021 letter that even considering lower gay-procurement targets was “an insult to the LGBTQ+ community.”

By 2022, CPUC had fully implemented the expansion. In practice, this meant establishing a “goal” for utility companies with annual revenues exceeding $25 million to buy things from state-certified LGBT businesses: 0.5 percent of procurement in 2022; 1 percent in 2023; and 1.5 percent in 2024 and beyond. If “large” CPUC-regulated utilities met these “goals” in 2024, they would have sent roughly $633 million to LGBT-owned firms.

This scheme raises an obvious question: How does a business qualify as officially gay? Paperwork. Supplier Clearinghouse, a group that certifies firms for the CPUC program, features a list of qualifications linked on its website. Applicants can secure certification by providing a letter from an “LGBT organization” attesting to their sexual preferences; proof that a newspaper identified them as “LGBT”; or three letters from “personal contacts” written “on company letterhead” attesting to their homosexual orientation. Corporate officials who “falsely represent” their business as gay face up to a year in county jail.

Supplier Clearinghouse also accepts gay-certification letters from the National LGBTQ+ & Allied Chamber of Commerce. The chamber has its own list of accepted documents, including human resources complaints or police records claiming LGBT discrimination. As NGLCC states on its website, “Certification is a journey, not a destination.”

Mary Ann Horton has experienced this “journey” firsthand. Horton, an early internet pioneer credited with helping develop the e-mail attachment, is a white male who “transitioned” and is now married to a woman. Horton’s company, Red Ace, is registered in California as a woman- and LGBT-owned business.

The application process, Horton told City Journal, required “a mess of documentation.” To prove that Red Ace was “lesbian-owned,” Horton sent Supplier Clearinghouse a domestic-partner affidavit. To establish that the business was woman-owned, Horton submitted a birth certificate, which had been reissued in Washington State post-“transition.” To prove transgender status, Horton filed a “therapist carry-letter,” a document from a medical professional certifying transgender identity.

These designations came with perks. After Red Ace secured these labels, Horton said, San Diego Gas & Electric brought the company on as a part-time cybersecurity contractor. During the hiring process, Horton told us, a company official said that being on the diversity list made the contract much easier to secure.

“If I was a straight, white male, I might be concerned I don’t have the same opportunity,” Horton said. “It worked out great for me.”

LGBT-owned companies in California play other roles. In 2022, SDG&E spent $8.6 million, or 0.36 percent of procurement, on LGBT businesses, apparently including one that produced a training video on supplier diversity. “Never fear when your Ambassador for Excellence is here,” an animated character says in the video. “I can show you exactly how to source diverse vendors.” Other certified LGBT businesses in California include a sign-language interpreter, a kombucha maker, and a “coaching” firm whose services include a “series” to help people “manage” their feelings about “[t]he latest election cycle.”

In California, preferential public contracting is technically illegal. In 1996, voters approved Proposition 209, which banned the state from granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, or ethnicity in public employment, education, and contracting. More than two decades later, in 2020, they rejected an effort to repeal the ban.

CPUC’s arm-twisting regulations violate the spirit of the law. The commission lists several specific “goals” for utilities’ contracting rates: 15 percent to minority-owned firms; 5 percent to women-owned firms; 1.5 percent to disabled-veteran-owned firms; and, most recently, 1.5 percent to LGBT-owned firms. It claims that these goals are not a “requirement” or “quota.” In practice, however, the agency cajoles utilities into compliance by requiring them to collect extensive demographic data, submit detailed annual reports, list their plans for increasing procurement from favored groups, and explain “any circumstances that may have resulted in not meeting” their procurement “goals.”

Despite the commission’s efforts, however, utilities and businesses don’t seem interested in LGBT certification. Large utilities’ procurement with LGBT-owned businesses decreased by 5 percent in 2024. Supplier Clearinghouse lists 3,750 Minority Business Enterprises, but only 451 LGBT-certified firms.

CPUC did not respond to our request for comment by deadline.

The state imposed these rules based on the view that government spending should not merely purchase goods and services, but should also engineer social outcomes. Under this framework, buying a hammer from a firm owned by a black transgender lesbian has more social value than buying the same hammer from a firm owned by a straight white man.

But Californians don’t need an energy system delivered by gay contractors; they need an energy system that works. Utility regulators should be in the business of regulating utilities, not verifying contractors’ sexual preferences. Companies should award contracts based on competence, quality, and cost—not the sexuality of the business owners.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:45

Watch Live: Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference As Fed Chair

Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.

With The Fed leaving rates unchanged as practically 100% expected (with no dissents), and a very hawkish signal sent from the 'Dots', the question on everyone's lips is simple: "What Will Warsh Do?" (WWWD?)

Will he shift to a cautiously hawkish path citing a resilient labor market, higher growth and soaring inflation...

...or will he reiterate the current easing bias as support for the lower leg of the 'K-shaped' economy (and what President Trump wants), looking through inflation fears (as the Iran MoU offered him a gift)?

A dovish Warsh would be the surprise with the market more than fully-pricing-in one rate-hike this year:

From a regime-change perspective, he is also expected to drop forward guidance on future Fed actions, even going so far as dropping the 'Dots' (and has been vocal about the size of the Fed balance sheet), which could raise uncertainty and this push bond vol higher.

Amid all of this Bloomberg's Michael Ball says that, from a trading perspective, the curve-flattening case is straightforward: firm growth and sticky inflation keep Fed hiking risks alive at the front end, while fading energy-tail risks and a more independent-looking Warsh should reduce term premium farther out.

A centrist, inflation-conscious Warsh is enough to flatten the curve further.

Reporters will be asking about: a 'missing dot', a drastically more hawkish 'dots', a dramatically-shortened statement, and a clear hawkish bias (seemingly more focus on the inflation side of the maNdate more than employment).

Watch Kevin Warsh's first press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:25

Big Oil Tankers Abruptly U-Turn Toward Hormuz Ahead Of US-Iran Peace Deal Signing

Ahead of the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal on Friday, Brent crude futures briefly fell below $80 a barrel, as traders priced a quicker pace of supply flows that could normalize in the Gulf area as the Strait of Hormuz moves toward reopening.

That is welcome news on the US inflation front, with lower crude prices helping ease pressure across gasoline, diesel, freight, and other input costs. Back in the Gulf region, early maritime signals suggest commercial vessels are reversing course and heading toward the Hormuz maritime chokepoint in anticipation of a reopening.

Bloomberg reports that two tankers, the Suezmax Kapodistrias 21 and the VLCC Coslucky Lake, both switched destinations and made abrupt U-turns, heading toward major energy terminals in the Gulf.

Most shipowners remain very cautious about an interim peace deal to resolve the Hormuz disruption, but early movers are trying to capitalize on high freight rates while a risk premium remains attached to any Hormuz transit.

According to Kpler data, 60 supertankers are waiting near the Gulf of Oman, up from just 36 earlier this month. There are also 150 ballasting tankers in that area.

On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that QatarEnergy is preparing to restart LNG flows at the Laffan complex, which exported almost 20% of global supply last year, at 50% capacity within one month and about 80% within two months - well ahead of earlier timelines. Still, full capacity at the LNG facility could take several years to restore due to war-related damage.

UBS energy research analyst Henri Patricot provided clients with the latest Hormuz flows (up to Sunday):

Oil & gas tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships entering and exiting the Gulf

Oil & gas tankers exiting the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships

Oil & gas tankers entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships

Estimated oil and gas flows exiting the Gulf, based on DWT, in Mboe/d

Oil and products transit via Strait of Hormuz by destination (Mb/d)

Weekly average crude loadings in the Middle East by port location (Mb/d)

Weekly average oil flows via Hormuz + unidentified exports from Gulf of Oman (Mb/d)

Iran's crude loadings by port (Mb/d)

If the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal occurs on Friday, tanker throughput through the Hormuz chokepoint could surge as soon as next week, if not shortly after, as shipowners reposition tankers and energy flows begin normalizing through the world's most important maritime chokepoint. However, energy flow normalization will take many months. 

Professional subscribers can read much more on the energy shock and Hormuz at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 13:40

FBI Issues Warning For Vacant Property Owners

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

American citizens who own vacant property parcels are being targeted by criminals in an identity theft scheme.

“Criminals create fake identifications (drivers licenses and/or U.S. passports), Outlook email addresses, and Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) generated phone numbers and use them to impersonate landowners,” the FBI said in a June 16 public service announcement alert.

An aerial view of single family homes in Miami, Fla., on Aug. 1, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The malicious actors “can obtain property parcel owner’s personally identifiable information through county or state public websites, data brokers, stolen account information, phishing schemes, or purchased from the dark web or hackers.”

The scammers approach a local realtor or title company while posing as a legitimate parcel owner and sell the properties, according to the FBI. In one instance, a fake deed was used to convince realtors of the sale’s validity.

Once the sale is done, the fraudsters ask for the sale money to be sent to an out-of-state attorney, who is also part of the scheme.

In an August 2024 statement, the American Land Title Association revealed the results of a study showing that 28 percent of title insurance companies experienced at least one seller impersonation fraud attempt in 2023.

The study “also showed that seller impersonation fraud often is caught before the real estate closing is completed. Forty-six percent of companies said identifying and preventing fraudulent transactions before closing was at least somewhat common, compared with 26 percent after closing,” the association said.

The FBI said criminals posing as legitimate sellers in these schemes often communicate only via text, email, or VoIP numbers. They avoid direct meetings, citing excuses such as illness or personal emergencies.

Other signs of such fraud include the seller having limited knowledge of the property, lacking proper documentation, and pressuring to quickly close the sale.

People who plan on buying properties should send a certified letter to the address listed on the land tax record to verify the seller’s legitimacy, the agency said.

Title Fraud

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) warned in an Oct. 22, 2025, statement that owners of vacant properties were at most risk of being targeted by real estate scammers.

Roughly six in 10 real estate experts said they saw instances of title fraud over the previous year. In title fraud, the scammer attempts to illegally transfer ownership or deed of the property. Only 12 percent of such title fraud cases in the previous year involved properties occupied by owners. An overwhelming 62 percent of fraud was related to vacant lands.

“Vacant parcels of land are a favorite target among title pirates because they are not occupied, and they are not usually closely monitored by their actual title owner, who may even be located out of state,” said attorney Victor Petrescu, partner at Levine Kellogg Lehman Schneider + Grossman LLP, according to the NAR statement.

In April, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs signed SB 1479 into law, which aims to tackle the issue.

The legislation requires individuals who submit property deals in person to present valid photo identification. County assessors are required to offer a system that allows property owners to opt in to receive alerts when there are changes to ownership or mailing address, according to a House of Representatives document.

In a Feb. 11 statement, Arizona state Sen. Frank Carroll, who sponsored the bill, said: “When criminals are able to forge documents, record false claims, or quietly transfer property without the rightful owner’s knowledge, it erodes trust in our entire system.

“We are enhancing identity verification, increasing penalties for offenders, improving notification systems, and ensuring that no property changes hands without proper approval.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 13:20

"Early Signs Of A Turn In US Consumer Discretionary," UBS Says

Brent crude futures tumbled below the $80-per-barrel level earlier this morning for the first time since March as traders priced in the U.S.-Iran peace deal and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint on Friday. Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets both slashed their fourth-quarter Brent crude forecasts, reinforcing the view that the war-risk premium is rapidly deflating.

If oil has peaked, then inflation pressures may have peaked as well, a positive setup that could provide some tailwinds for consumers this summer through lower fuel costs.

Piper Sandler Chief Global Economist Nancy Lazar told clients, "If inflation has indeed peaked, that will boost real incomes (nominal incomes have been solid), a positive for both real consumer spending and housing, but don't expect robust growth in either."

On Monday, GasBuddy data showed the national average for gasoline slipped below the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for the first time in months.

We have outlined in countless notes (read here, here, here, and here) that gas prices above $4 forced consumers to trade down across retailers and, in some cases, to pull back on discretionary purchases altogether.

Pump prices are set to tumble further...

Now that energy prices are moving lower, consumer sentiment is likely to improve. UBS analyst Mark Paski told clients about "early signs of a turn in U.S. consumer discretionary."

Paski explained:

Fairly quiet day across the US consumer, despite the move lower in crude oil and rates following headlines over the weekend.

...

The risk/reward in consumer discretionary is beginning to shift from the doldrums seen as recently as two weeks ago. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) versus front-month crude oil (CL1) suggests there is still further upside to the discretionary trade, given crude's move lower this morning. Lower yields should also provide incremental support.

Consumer staples were the second-best performing sector last week (behind materials), and I would expect some residual relief today—particularly within the household and personal care space.

Chart: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) 

That said, the CPI for energy is on track to slide for June. But consumers are not out of the woods yet. Months of elevated energy prices have already offset the rapidly fading tailwinds from tax cuts. And not to be the bearer of bad news, but one lagged effect of the energy shock could still show up on supermarket shelves later this year. 

Professional subscribers can read more on consumers at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:25

Snap's Goofy AR Glasses Underwhelm Wall Street After Decade-Long Development Push

Snap's new $2,195 augmented-reality glasses are being viewed by Wall Street analysts less as a mass-market consumer device and more as a developer kit, given the expensive price point.

We suspect Snap's new AR glasses are unlikely to compete with the Meta glasses in terms of mass adoption, as Meta's are half the cost, if not cheaper.

Evan Spiegel showing off the new Specs AR glasses to the public for the first time. pic.twitter.com/pCYBLU9xxH

— Nathie @ AWE (@NathieVR) June 16, 2026

"Earlier today, Evan Spiegel hosted a keynote presentation regarding the Fall '26 SPECS product release; while not entirely unsurprising, premium price point ($2,195) implies product built for 'early adopters', disappointing after a 10yr dev cycle," Wells Fargo tech analyst Alec Brondolo wrote in a note.

Brondolo's first take on the new AR glasses:

• SNAP announces a $2,195 price point for SPECS; to feature 51-degree field of view and four-hour battery life. While Specs price point compares favorably to HoloLens 2 & Vision Pro (both $3,500), it still positions the product with an 'early tech adopter' value prop, disappointing given the length of the dev cycle. Product compares favorably to META Orion prototype from our perspective; field of view smaller (Orion 70 degrees) but unlike META Orion, SPECS doesn't require a 'puck' compute device.
• Value proposition to focus on real-world utility; application layer to be driven by a third-party developer ecosystem. While several use cases were demo'd, we believe SPECS value prop to focus heavily on real-world utility (cooking, auto repair, training for sports, etc.). Snap envisions a robust third-party developer ecosystem, supported by agentic coding, will build experiences on Snap OS. Snap did not make SPECS available for product demos on the floor of the Augmented World Expo conference.
• Not anticipating SPECS to materialize as a meaningful near-term financial driver. We believe 100k units is a 'stretch goal' for the first generation of SPECS, implying $220M of revenue. Assuming 3yrs b/w generations, that further implies $75M of revs / year, or 1% accretion vs. SNAP 2026 consensus revenue; user base likely too small to monetize meaningfully in ads or subscriptions over the near term. While NT revenue pot'l limited, we do believe SPECS will be gross margin positive

In a separate note, Citizens analyst Andrew Boone said Snap's new glasses told clients, "Appears bulky and more akin to Apple's Vision Pro glasses than Meta's Meta Ray-Ban Display from a fashion perspective."

Boone described the new glasses as "more of a developer kit than a consumer product, as it is priced at $2,195."

B. Riley Securities analyst Naved Khan said, "While initial adoption is likely to be limited by the relatively high unit price ($2,195), we expect management will use the launch to further improve the product, with successive models becoming more affordable."

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh noted, "Snap's further expansion into hardware with new AR glasses priced at around $2,195 is unlikely to match adoption of Meta's Ray-Ban AR glasses," adding, "The latter's lower price point and proprietary large language model give it an advantage for deploying image generation and voice integration features, while Snap is likely to struggle to create an app ecosystem and agentic functionality."

Snap's release of its new AR glasses comes as Apple pushes deeper into smart glasses following the Vision Pro's failed launch. We have remained adamant that Meta is winning this race, with Ray-Ban smart glasses emerging as the clearest early consumer winner because of their price point. We have also explored the supply chain behind Meta's Ray-Ban glasses, which readers can revisit here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:45

Hillary Clinton Blasts Joe Biden After Endorsing Him Twice

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton appears to be suffering from buyer’s remorse about the 2024 race.

After repeatedly praising former President Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign, Clinton now says his decision to seek re-election was a “terrible mistake.”

“He made a terrible mistake for himself, his legacy and for the country,” Clinton said Monday of Biden’s decision to run for a second term.

She made the scathing remarks during an interview with a New York Times editor in Manhattan.

Hillary Clinton says Joe Biden made a “terrible mistake” by running for re-election.

“He made a terrible mistake. He made a terrible mistake for himself, his legacy, and for the country.”

Clinton said that had Biden said he was not running, the winner of the primary “would have… pic.twitter.com/Un1O9Q09Cy

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) June 16, 2026

The comments are at odds with Clinton’s repeated endorsements of both Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris during the election cycle.

A Headline USA review of Clinton’s social media found that she spent much of 2024 urging voters to back Biden.

“I’ll be voting Biden,” Clinton wrote on June 28, 2024.

The choice in this election remains very simple.

It's a choice between someone who cares about you—your rights, your prospects, your future—versus someone who's only in it for himself.

I'll be voting Biden. https://t.co/mxkpLIOEux

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) June 28, 2024

Clinton quickly endorsed Harris, Biden’s chosen successor, after he exited the race later that summer.

“Here’s what I know: We need to defeat Donald Trump. We need to elect Kamala Harris,” Clinton wrote on Sept. 10, 2024.

Adding to her rebuke on Monday, Clinton said that a different Democratic nominee “would have beaten Donald Trump” if the party had a competitive race.

“I think it was a terrible miscalculation on the part of President Biden,” Clinton continued.

She further suggested the nominee could have been Harris, a governor or a senator. She also said Biden triggered a “terrible dilemma” after he claimed he had never signaled in 2020 that he would be a one-term president.

Her comments come as Biden and former first lady Jill Biden expand their longshot efforts to defend their political legacy amid criticism from Democrats who blame the Bidens for propelling Trump’s grand return to power in 2025.

Biden exited the race only after mounting pressure within his own party following his disastrous performance in the first debate with Trump.

Outlets like Headline USA had long covered the evidence of Biden’s cognitive decline throughout his presidency.

By contrast, Legacy media organizations and Clinton herself downplayed or shielded him from scrutiny.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:25