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Microsoft Triples-Down On Data Centers, As Half Of Planned Projects Face Cancelations, Delays

Microsoft unveiled plans to triple its data center footprint in Cheyenne, Wyoming, snapping up roughly 3,200 acres on the city's south edge. 

The deal covers a 200-acre parcel in Bison Business Park plus an adjacent 3,000-acre tract, turning what is already one of the company's longstanding hubs into a sprawling complex. 

With 11 data centers operational and three more under construction across four campuses, the tech giant is betting big on the Cowboy State's energy resources and workforce. 

A company spokeswoman called it a "commitment to continued growth," citing the area's skilled labor, solid infrastructure, and thriving energy sector.

The land grab hit the headlines amid a far less rosy picture for the data center frenzy in the United States and beyond. Announcements keep piling up at a disturbing clip, fueled by the AI “gold rush” and hyperscaler spending projected to top $700 billion this year alone. 

Earlier this week we reported that nearly half of the roughly 16 gigawatts of U.S. data-center capacity slated to come online in 2026 will likely face delays or outright cancellation. In fact, only about 5 gigawatts have even broken ground, according to Sightline Climate's latest outlook. Supply-chain gaps, transformer shortages, and grid constraints are turning ambitious blueprints into paper tigers.

Even in Cheyenne, not everyone is popping champagne. State Senator Cale Case voiced caution about future ratepayer impacts and grid congestion, 

“It looks good on paper,” Case said.

“But what happens down the road when those supplies become constrained? So, it’s not benign, and it takes a lot of thought. I don’t think you can ever say this is not going to impact other customers.”

In the UK, OpenAI recently paused its ambitious Stargate project over prohibitive energy costs and regulatory hurdles, as we recently highlighted. Wyoming's climate and energy edge may insulate Microsoft's Cheyenne bet for now, but the global wave of cancellations suggests many shiny press releases will never pour concrete. 
 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 12:40

US Chemists Turn Natural Gas Into Liquid Fuel Without High Heat And Pressures

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

Chemists in the United States have discovered a new way to turn natural gas into liquid fuel.

The team from Northwestern University has successfully converted methane directly into methanol in a single step. They harnessed tiny bursts of plasma — or mini “lightning bolts” — in glass tubes submerged in water.

Methanol is a versatile, high-demand industrial chemical used to make many products people use every day.Employee/Alexander/Driscoll Using pulses of high-voltage electricity

“We’re using pulses of high-voltage electricity,” said Northwestern’s Dayne Swearer, the study’s corresponding author.

“If the electrical potential is high enough, lightning bolts form inside of our reactor the way they do during a summer thunderstorm. We’re taking advantage of that chemistry to break methane’s bonds without heating the entire system to extreme temperatures.”

While the current method is reliable, it’s energy intensive and emits millions of tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Using just electricity, water and a copper-oxide catalyst, the new process could offer a cleaner, electrified path to producing one of the world’s most widely used chemical building blocks, according to a press release.

Methanol is a versatile, high-demand industrial chemical

The team also revealed that the methanol is a versatile, high-demand industrial chemical used to make many products people use every day. It also is commonly used as an industrial solvent and is gaining attention as a cleaner-burning fuel for ships and industrial boilers.

One of the world’s most used commodity chemicals, methanol is a key ingredient in plastics, paints and adhesives. More recently, researchers have explored methanol as a promising liquid fuel because its combustion produces lower sulfur emissions and particulate pollution than gasoline and diesel, as per the release.

Industry generates methanol through a multi-step process

The team also pointed out that currently, the industry generates methanol through a multi-step process, starting with steam reforming. First, methane is reacted with steam at temperatures exceeding 800 degrees Celsius to break it into carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Then, those gases are recombined under extremely high pressures — 200 to 300 times standard atmospheric pressure — to form methanol. Tearing methane apart and rebuilding it consumes an enormous amount of heat and inherently generates carbon dioxide along the way.

“The extreme temperatures are needed to break the unreactive chemical bonds between carbon and hydrogen in methane,” Swearer said.

“Then, you must use high pressure to squeeze all those molecules together onto the catalyst in order to make the methanol molecule. It works, but it’s not the most straightforward path to making methanol from methane.”

For the new single-step process, James Ho, a Ph.D. candidate in Swearer’s lab and the study’s first author, built a plasma “bubble reactor,” which is essentially a porous glass tube coated with a copper oxide catalyst. Then, the team flowed methane gas through the tube while applying electrical pulses.

The electricity transformed the methane gas into plasma, splitting methane and water into highly reactive fragments. Those fragments then recombined to form methanol, which immediately dissolves into the surrounding water. That rapid “quenching” stopped the chemical reaction at the right moment, preventing the methane from decomposing into carbon dioxide.

“More than 99% of the observable universe is comprised of plasma,” said James Ho. “But even though it’s ubiquitous, it really is an untapped resource in the field of chemistry. The reason we use cold plasmas is because we can produce them at low temperatures and normal atmospheric pressure conditions.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 12:20

Cybertruck Sales "Propped Up" By SpaceX Buying Spree

Bloomberg is out with a new report saying Tesla's Cybertruck sales were "propped up" in the fourth quarter by purchases from companies inside Elon Musk's business empire.

SpaceX accounted for 1,279 Cybertruck registrations, or about 18% of all U.S. Cybertruck registrations during the last quarter of 2025. The report went on to say that xAI, Boring Co., and Neuralink also purchased the stainless-steel EV during the period.

"That means almost one in every five Cybertrucks registered during the period were delivered from one part of Musk's sprawling business empire to another," Bloomberg's Dana Hull noted.

Hull added, "Without those sales to other Musk-run companies — which included xAI, Boring Co. and Neuralink, in addition to SpaceX — Cybertruck registrations in the fourth quarter would have fallen 51%."

Hull quoted Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for advisory firm AutoForecast Solutions, who said, "Tesla is running out of buyers for the Cybertruck."

Hull said the registration data was sourced from S&P Global Mobility and, in her words, suggests only that "demand for the pickup is fading just two years after launch."

Cybertruck's struggles are not unique to Tesla. In fact, electric pickups have been a major bust across the U.S. EV market. Ford recently converted its electric F-150 Lightning production lines to extended-range hybrid vehicles. And we're sure in President Trump's war economy, autos will be converting EV lines or other production lines into making weapons (read report). 

Despite the continued downturn in EVs, Cox Automotive data show the Cybertruck was still the top-selling EV truck in the U.S. in the first quarter.

High sticker price and elevated interest rates are likely major factors behind the Cybertruck's dismal sales. Bankrate data show the national average 60-month loan rate for new vehicles is still above 7%, down from 8% during the Biden years but still sharply higher than the sub-4% levels seen in 2021.

Federal subsidies for EVs have also been cut under the Trump administration's second term.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 12:00

Hochul Joins Mamdani In New York's "Eat The Rich" Movement

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The hunt is on...

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani used Tax Day to announce a new fee targeting wealthy people who still linger in the city after moving their primary residences to other states.

The tax, called pied-à-terre (or “foot on the ground”) is designed to hit people who still maintain high-value properties in the city. It is a remarkably moronic effort to ensure that wealthy people cut all ties with the city. However, Gov. Kathy Hochul has yielded to the far left and joined the effort.

Mamdani, a socialist who supports the “decommodification” of private property, is seeking major tax increases, including a 10% property tax, to fund his pledges for free buses, city-run stores, and other policies.

He will need it. Mamdani not only recently admitted that he cannot fulfill his pledge for free buses this year, but that he will only build the first of five promise city-run stores next year at the cost of $30 million — almost half of what he set aside for all five promised stores.

The new measure would add a fee to existing taxes for owners of high-value properties worth more than $5 million.

Mamdani declared the new fee part of “Happy Tax Day,” which will generate $500 million more to “help fund things like free child care, cleaner streets, and safer neighborhoods.”

He is also pushing Hochul to increase taxes on the 33,000 New Yorkers earning more than $1 million annually as well as those corporations that have not left the state. Other blue states from Washington to Virginia are moving toward similar millionaire taxes.

The move is consistent with other blue states seeing the same exodus of wealthy taxpayers and businesses due to the rising budgets and tax burdens. Rather than seeking to make their states magnets for investment, California and other states are pursuing retroactive wealth taxes and so-called “Teddy Bear laws” that refuse to recognize changes of residency.

New York has used its “Teddy Bear” regulations to declare that people who fled to other states are still residents subject to taxation because of the location of their sentimental attachments in New York (like a Teddy Bear) from pets to children.

In my new book, “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss these taxes and how they are the final stage of economic atrophy for states like New York. Politicians like Hochul cannot muster the courage to face bloated budgets, excessive union pension contracts, and runaway spending. In other words, it is too difficult to create a state that draws investment and residents like so many red states. Instead, they are chasing the remaining wealthy people who still maintain contacts with the state.

The result is a form of economic Darwinism in which the herd of wealthy taxpayers is thinned further by capturing the slowest or most nostalgic individuals.

The irony is that Houhul and Mamdani are working to cut the final ties of these former residents, convincing them that they are viewed as parasites to be pursued relentlessly for more taxes.

In Rage and the Republic, I discuss these efforts as a dangerous form of “economic factionalism,” a popular tactic historically used by demagogues to curry public favor by vilifying the wealthy.

Mandani denounced those who “store their wealth in New York City real estate [and] reap the huge financial rewards” while “hurt[ing] working New Yorkers.”

This is evident in the renewed claims of figures such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), who used Tax Day to renew calls for her unconstitutional wealth tax.

Warren posted on X that “It’s time to make the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share. It’s time to pass a wealth tax.”

Socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders also made the same claim. In a Guardian op-ed, Sanders cited shocking figures claiming that Elon Musk pays a tax rate of only 3.3% while Jeff Bezos pays less than 1%.

The claim comes from the dubious source  ProPublica, which performs a statistical sleight of hand. In reality, the publication shows that figures like Jeff Bezos paid $973 million in taxes on income of $4.22 billion. That is a 23% tax burden, not less than 1%. Musk paid 30% with a $455 million tax bill.

The top 1% of taxpayers in this country paid roughly 40% of all taxes. The top 5% pays over 40% of taxes.

The Democrats are committed to economic factionalism as a strategy for the midterm elections. It is a major driver of the rage politics that many hope will allow them to regain power in November. It will come at a great cost to states like New York.

Hochul and Mamdani can hunt down the remaining wealthy taxpayers lingering in their state. In the end, it will not generate nearly as much revenue as it will cost as residents and businesses look elsewhere for position living and business environments.

The best way to improve the standard of living in these states is to improve their economies and tax bases. Instead, blue states like California and New York are raising costs across the board, including through pushes for a $ 30-per-hour minimum wage. In California, the massive increases in the minimum wage have already resulted in substantial job losses and business closures.

It is unlikely that many wealthy individuals will stick around to experience what Mayor Mamdani calls “the warmth of collectivism.” Instead, it will be average New Yorkers who are burned by his “eat the rich” policies.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 11:40

Kamikaze Drone Maker Raises $320 Million In U.S. IPO As 'War Unicorns' Rise

The rise of "war unicorns" will be an impressive development to watch over the next several years, as we've diligently laid out for readers for months, well before the U.S.-Iran conflict, how a massive government push and in capital markets would begin to prioritize the next generation of defense-tech firms rather than big, bloated legacy defense contractors.

Aevex, a military drone maker backed by Madison Dearborn Partners, is the latest example of capital markets getting excited about war unicorns, with the company selling 16 million shares at $20 each in an IPO, with shares expected to begin trading on Friday. The deal was reportedly oversubscribed multiple times, according to Bloomberg sources.

Aevex is a direct public-market play on low-cost kamikaze drones, with a sizable portion of last year's revenue linked to Ukraine. It has two unmanned systems programs, Phoenix Ghost and EUCOM AOR Deep Strike, that have delivered or committed to deliver more than 9,300 units, representing about $1.2 billion in contract value through the end of this year.

The war unicorn is positioned to benefit from the Department of War's massive shift toward startups that can produce advanced weapons at a fraction of the cost and on a faster timeline than the large primes, such as Lockheed and Boeing. There is also a major shift within the DoW toward low-cost advanced weapons systems, such as drones and AI kill chains.

Aevex sees demand for unmanned systems expanding to $11 billion in the U.S. and $26 billion globally by 2030.

Bloomberg noted that Aevex posted a net loss of $16.9 million on $432.9 million in revenue in 2025, compared with net income of $78.5 million on $392.2 million in revenue a year earlier.

Aevex's public debut is only the beginning of war unicorns tapping public markets. We've outlined how the DoW's procurement process has been reset to favor startups. The DoW is also setting up a 30-person investment banking team called the "Economic Defense Unit" to deploy $200 billion in private equity over three years to fund these unicorns.

Follow the money: President Trump's war economy is being spun up ...

• War Economy Returns: From Trucks To Tanks, Pentagon Looks To Automakers To Rebuild America's Arsenal

What comes next, particularly in the U.S. market, is a rapid push to harden the airspace over critical infrastructure, data centers, and other high-value assets, because there is an alarming gap in the low-cost air defense layer against FPVs. Lessons from conflict areas across Eurasia are being learned at hyperspeed. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 11:20

"Mr. Biden Lives Abroad": Hunter Leaves Country As Former Lawyers Seek Millions

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Mr. Biden lives abroad.”

Those four words in a filing from Barry Coburn confirmed what had long been rumored about his client: Hunter Biden has left the country as his former lawyers and creditors seek millions in unpaid debts.

He added, “He cannot pay his current lawyers.”

As I wrote about years ago, Biden’s art grift would dry up as soon as he could no longer deliver influence and access to power. Reportedly unable to move art, Hunter has moved out of the reach of many creditors. He is rumored to be in South Africa, where his wife, Melissa Cohen, was born and raised.

Hunter is the Blanche DuBois of American politics. He has always relied on the kindness (and greed) of strangers when he could allegedly offer influence or access to his father, Joe Biden.

Hunter told a South African podcast in November that “We’re trying to be between Cape Town and the States, go back and forth.” He added, “I’ve fallen madly in love with Cape Town. You guys do not know how good you have it here. It’s the most beautiful city in the world.”

It just also happens to be roughly 9000 miles away from creditors in Delaware.

According to his former counsel at Winston & Strawn LLP, Hunter has not paid a “substantial portion” of the fees owed to his legal team.

Hunter told the podcast that he is facing “$17 million in debt … as it relates to my legal fees.”

His criminal defense did not ultimately protect him. He was found guilty of a variety of crimes, and his father then broke his repeated promise to the public and pardoned his own son in December 2024.

I have been a long-time critic of the Bidens, going back to when Joe Biden was still a senator. The family was long accused of influence peddling and corruption. Hunter Biden was hardly subtle in marketing his access and influence. He is now without a law license and any known means of support despite an enabling media that pushed his past books and art.

For those of us who have written about the Bidens for decades, the relocation to South Africa is about as surprising as having his father pop into dinners at Cafe Milano with foreign clients. Hunter Biden is the Enfant terrible created by his father and released upon the world.

I recently wrote that the Swalwell scandal reveals an ironic analogy to Hunter’s signature lifestyle.

Swalwell supported Hunter and was by his side as he defied a congressional subpoena. Like Hunter, he has controversial dealings, including using tens of thousands of campaign contributions for child care. He even had the campaign support of Hunter’s “sugar brother” Kevin Morris, who appears to have a proclivity for narcissistic, self-destructive personalities.

Swalwell could also face the same financial crunch as Hunter, as his campaign and congressional money run out. If so, there is always South Africa.

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Christmas is right around the corner... pic.twitter.com/TXc7STNYQW

— ZeroHedge Store (@ZeroHedgeStore) November 3, 2025 Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 11:00

House Votes To Extend Surveillance Powers Until April 30

The US House of Representatives on Friday passed a bill extending Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) - which was notoriously abused so spy on the 2016 Trump campaign, and has been used for "backdoor searches" targeting Americans. Friday's vote - via unanimous consent after a longer five-year reauthorization pushed by Republicns failed to advance - extends Section 702 until April 30. 

The short-term measure now moves to the Senate, which faces a looming deadline: the current authorization expires April 20. The vote comes despite a well-documented history of FISA abuses spanning both individualized Title I warrants and the bulk warrantless collection under Section 702, as detailed in multiple Department of Justice Inspector General reports, declassified Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) opinions, and congressional oversight findings.

President Donald Trump had urged Republicans to support a clean extension, citing the law’s critical role in national security while personally recounting what he described as "the worst and most illegal abuse of FISA in our Nation’s History.” Trump referenced the FBI’s use of FISA during the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into his 2016 presidential campaign. At the same time, he stressed that the U.S. military "desperately needs” Section 702 to protect troops and diplomats, particularly amid ongoing operations against Iran’s nuclear program.

"With the ongoing successful Military activities against the Terrorist Iranian Regime, it is more important than ever that we remain vigilant, PROTECT our Homeland, Troops, and Diplomats stationed abroad,” Trump said. He added that generals he consulted called the authority "VITAL,” especially in the current geopolitical climate.

Heaven forbid he demand reforms and more oversight. 

Section 702 permits the government to collect communications of non-U.S. persons located outside the United States without a warrant. However, it inevitably captures "incidental” communications involving American citizens, who can then be searched in the database through so-called "backdoor” queries - often without a warrant or probable cause. Critics on both sides of the aisle have long warned that the program effectively enables warrantless domestic surveillance.

Long-Standing and Systemic Abuses

FISA was enacted in 1978 in direct response to revelations from the Church Committee about executive-branch spying on civil-rights leaders, anti-war activists, and political opponents. Yet official records show recurring compliance failures and misuse in the decades since.

The highest-profile case of targeted surveillance involved Carter Page, a former Trump campaign foreign-policy adviser. A December 2019 DOJ Inspector General report by Michael Horowitz identified 17 significant inaccuracies and omissions across four FISA warrant applications and renewals. These included heavy reliance on the unverified Steele dossier - funded by the Clinton campaign and DNC - without disclosing its political origins, lack of corroboration, or exculpatory evidence (such as Page’s prior reporting as a CIA source). The FBI also failed to correct the record with the FISC.

FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith later pleaded guilty to altering an email to falsely claim Page was not a CIA source, helping secure a renewal. Special Counsel John Durham’s subsequent investigation further criticized the FBI’s predication and handling of the Russia probe. The DOJ later admitted in court filings that it lacked probable cause for at least some of the Page renewals. Recent 2026 disclosures by Sen. Chuck Grassley have raised similar questions about possible FISA surveillance of another Trump adviser, Walid Phares, involving the same FBI attorney.

These were not isolated. A 2002 FISC review found the FBI had included false or misleading statements in at least 75 FISA applications, leading to the barring of a senior counterterrorism official from ever appearing before the court. A 2020 IG audit of the FBI’s "Woods procedures” (accuracy-check protocols) examined 29 applications and found apparent errors or inadequately supported facts in every one of the 25 reviewed in detail.

Section 702 "Backdoor" Searches on U.S. Persons

The scale of abuse under the warrantless program has drawn even sharper criticism from the FISC itself, which has repeatedly described FBI compliance failures as "persistent and widespread.”

Between 2020 and early 2022, the FBI conducted more than 278,000 searches of Section 702 data that violated legal standards or internal policy. In 2021 alone, total U.S.-person queries reached approximately 3.4 million, with hundreds of thousands flagged as improper.

Declassified FISC opinions document concrete examples of misuse:

• Queries on Black Lives Matter protesters, Jan. 6 arrestees, and participants in purely domestic criminal investigations (health-care fraud, gang violence, public corruption) with no foreign-intelligence nexus.
• A batch query on 19,000 donors to a congressional campaign.
• Searches targeting a U.S. Senator, a state senator, a state court judge, journalists, political commentators, and even FBI "Citizens Academy” participants.
• Personal abuses, including agents querying data on romantic partners, family members, online-dating matches, or rental tenants.

FISC rulings from 2018 through 2023 repeatedly faulted the FBI’s minimization procedures, record-keeping, and "batch” querying practices. A 2025 DOJ OIG report acknowledged some improvement after the 2024 Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act but warned that ongoing oversight remains essential.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) offered an amendment April 15 that would have required the Justice Department to obtain a court order before querying Americans’ data, with narrow exceptions for urgent threats. "FISA 702 is too critical to allow it to expire, but the legitimate concerns about the possibility of abuse also demand that we consider additional reforms,” Himes stated. The amendment was not adopted.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 10:40

US Intelligence Believes China Weighing Sending Iran Advance Radar Systems

US intelligence is flagging early signs that Beijing may have been eyeing a move into the Iran conflict - quietly considering sending advanced radar systems, which it is said to have been mulling since near the opening of the US-Israel war which kicked off last month.

These anti-Beijing allegations are contained in fresh CBS News reporting, citing analysts at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), who conclude China was actively weighing whether to equip Tehran with upgraded radar capabilities.

via GT

It should be recalled that earlier parallel reports said Moscow was feeding Iran intelligence on US military positions across the Middle East - raising the specter of a broader shadow alignment forming behind the scenes.

"This technology would significantly enhance Iran's ability to detect and track incoming threats, like low-flying drones and cruise missiles, and could help protect its air defense systems against advanced strikes," CBS writes.

The report continues, "It remains unclear whether China ultimately moved forward with the transfer but the assessment underscores Washington's concern that the Iranian war is drawing in not only regional adversaries but also global competitors willing to provide critical support, short of direct military involvement, the officials said."

The ability of the Iranians to hit faraway precision targets, including for example an expensive US radar base in Jordan, suggested it may have already had some external satellite and targeting help. Any new China radar transfer could help Iran rebuild its largely decimated defenses.

The significant Iranian retaliation against US regional bases and against Gulf facilities last month came as a surprise or even shock to the US administration, which appeared somewhat unprepared - and this has been subject of much recent reporting. For example:

Such anti-China allegations have been previewed before, but the idea of advanced Chinese radar technological on the ground in Iran might have been a game-changer in terms of preserving more of its own anti-air and missile capabilities.

All of these allegations, which come anonymously via unnamed US intel officials, must be treated with appropriate skepticism, however - given that war propaganda will inevitably be thick in such a hot conflict.

China, for its part, has been vehemently denying these repeat charges of some kind of deepened support for the Islamic Republic amid the war. It says it stands for peace and dialogue, and has called for urgent de-escalation and the unblocking of the Hormuz Strait.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 10:05

Trump Says Admin Investigating Deaths, Disappearances Of US Scientists

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Thursday vowed to look into reports of multiple U.S. scientists who have either died or gone missing in recent months.

“I hope it’s random, but we’re going to know in the next week and a half,” he told reporters, adding that “I just left a meeting on that subject.”

The reports, he added, are serious, because “some of them were very important people, and we’re going to look at it over the next short period.”

The president provided an update a day after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is investigating.

A reporter asked Leavitt about 10 scientists who died or disappeared over the past several years, with some of them having access to nuclear or aerospace material.

“I haven’t spoken to our relevant agencies about it. I will certainly do that, and we’ll get you an answer. If true, of course, that’s definitely something I think this government and administration would deem worth looking into,” she said in response.

At least one House lawmaker, Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), asked the FBI to investigate the reports.

“The disappearance of multiple scientists and military personnel with ties to advanced research is deeply concerning. I’ve already requested FBI involvement, and we will keep pressing for answers,” Burlison wrote in a post on X in late March.

Another, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), also called for an investigation into the disappearances.

“The numbers seem very high in these certain areas of research. I think we’d better be paying attention, and I don’t think we should trust our government,” he told the Daily Mail in March.

Burchett also made reference to the disappearance of a former Air Force general, William McCasland, who vanished from his New Mexico home without his phone or glasses in February. Media reports said that a colleague of his, Monica Reza, a rocket scientist, went missing in June 2025 after she did not return home from hiking in the Angeles National Forest in Southern California.

The lawmaker appeared to suggest that McCasland’s disappearance was linked to his aerospace or UFO research, saying that “those folks are very secretive about what they know” and he believes that McCasland “was involved in some of that.”

A former Department of State analyst, Marik von Rennenkampff, told NewsNation on Wednesday that the disappearances are unusual and could be connected.

“It’s bizarre,” he said. “I go through various potential scenarios. These are large organizations. Could these be coincidences? I think we might have passed that threshold.”

The Epoch Times contacted the FBI for comment Thursday.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:45

U.S. Navy Spy Drone Circles Cuba As Report Says Pentagon Weighing Possible Military Ops

With President Trump signaling on Thursday that a deal with Tehran could be close, and indicating that another round of talks may take place this weekend, the focus is already beginning to shift beyond the Gulf region and back toward the Gulf of America, where reports earlier this week suggested the U.S. military was preparing for some form of intervention against the communist regime in Cuba.

USA Today reported on Wednesday that the Department of War is preparing for a possible operation in Cuba. The report was based on two sources.

The DoW responded to the outlet, saying it plans for a range of contingencies and remains prepared to execute the president's orders as directed.

By early Friday, X user OSINTdefender reported that a U.S. Navy high-altitude, long-endurance maritime surveillance drone "flew an over-12-hour mission off the coast of Cuba."

BLKCAT6, a U.S. Navy MQ-4C “Triton” High-Altitude Surveillance Drone flew an over 12-hour mission yesterday off the coast of Cuba, flying rounds over the Gulf of America and Northern Caribbean, taking a particularly close look at both Havana and the area near Guantanamo Bay,… pic.twitter.com/X8UahG4Z0Y

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 17, 2026

The drone in question was a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton, used primarily for maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. It is also used for target detection and tracking.

Importantly, the maritime surveillance drone provided the Navy with a wide-area view of what was happening along the Cuban coast. It is often paired with a P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft.

Also on Thursday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel addressed a crowd of communist supporters, saying he does not want conflict with the U.S. He also boasted that Cuban forces would defeat the U.S. military.

Díaz-Canel told the crowd: "We have to be ready to resist serious threats, including military aggression. We do not seek it, but it is our duty to prepare to avert it, and, should it prove inevitable, to win it."

The Trump administration has been calling on the communist regime in Havana to open the island economically so it can thrive, rather than remain trapped in its current state of economic collapse - a byproduct of failed communism. Oddly enough, some Democrats and left-wing NGOs continue to praise communism in Cuba and claim that it works well.

President Trump's march across the Western Hemisphere and into the Gulf region appears to be ushering in a new order, one in which the U.S. maintains its dominance for another generation by controlling energy flows. China is certainly angered.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:30

There Is No "Fair Share"... There Is Only "More"

Authored by James Hickman via SchiffSovereign.com,

In April 1971, Keith Richards loaded his family and his Bentley onto a cross-Channel ferry and drove south until he hit the Mediterranean. He rented a 19th-century villa called Nellcôte on a hillside above Villefranche-sur-Mer, and converted the basement into a recording studio.

Over the following year the rest of the Rolling Stones rotated through the house and nearby properties to record the double album that became Exile on Main St., while staying deliberately out of reach of the British tax authorities.

The top marginal income tax rate in Britain at the time was 75%, and a surcharge on the highest earners pushed the effective rate on the wealthiest past 90%.

Three years later, under Denis Healey’s 1974 budget, the top rate on earned income would climb to 83% and the rate on investment income would reach 98%.

Britain would spend the rest of the decade watching capital flee and begging the IMF for emergency loans.

David Bowie, Rod Stewart, Michael Caine, Sean Connery, and a long line of less famous wealthy Britons eventually ran the same arithmetic as the Stones and reached a similar conclusion. Capital left the country in every form it could fit into, including bonds, businesses, luxury cars, and rock stars.

But politicians never learn.

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey has backed legislation that would push the top federal income-tax rate to 43%.

Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is pushing a version that lands at 49%.

Both men describe it, as they always do, as wealthy Americans finally paying their “fair share.”

What exact percent is their fair share? Are we to believe they will be satisfied at 43% or 49%?

As always, that phrase is deliberately left undefined.

Never-mind that the top 1% of filers already paid 40.4% of all federal income taxes in 2022 while the bottom 50% paid roughly 3%.

They are also conveniently ignorant of the fact that raising the top marginal rate doesn’t actually raise revenue at all.

Since the end of the Second World War, U.S. federal tax revenue has averaged around 17% to 18% of GDP, dipping toward 15% in deep recessions and climbing near 20% in booms. The swings track the business cycle, not tax policy.

The top marginal rate, over that same stretch, has been all over the map: 91% under Eisenhower, 28% under Reagan by 1988, 39.6% under Clinton, 37% today. Yet regardless of whether tax rates were 91% or 37%, the IRS always collects around 17% of GDP.

The conclusion is obvious: if the government wants to collect more tax revenue, they should focus on setting the right conditions for an economic boom.

In short, make the pie bigger for EVERYONE, and hence the government’s slice will grow as well.

Making the pie bigger isn’t that hard, either. America’s private economy is legendary.

All Congress has to do is get out of the way. Attempt to run a balanced budget. Restore credibility. Make it easier for businesses and individuals to be productive. REMOVE idiotic laws instead of creating new ones.

But they’re not interested in any of those things.

Congress has documented evidence of hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud. Yet they  do nothing. They have also pledged to do nothing about Social Security— which is set to run out of money in six years.

The regulatory code in the Land of the Free already runs over 188,000 pages. Yet they expand it every session.

This is the opposite of what they should be doing. And instead of figuring out how to live within their means, they just demand more resources… even though it never works.

Britain tried its 98% tax experiment in the 1970s and spent a decade regretting it.

Ironically the current Labour government has forgotten that painful lesson; they recently abolished the 110-year-old “non-dom” regime, and more than 10,000 millionaires have already left the country.

In the United States, Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax proposal does not just impose a wealth tax. It bundles her wealth tax with an additional 40% exit tax on anyone who renounces US citizenship.

You do not create a 40% tollbooth at the border unless you fully expect people to try to walk through it.

These are not serious ideas to grow an economy.

Rather, they are insidious policies designed to trap people in a system which steals their prosperity.

That is why a Plan B makes so much sense.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:00

Futures Storm Higher Into Record Territory On Now Daily Ceasefire Hopium

Stocks are pushing higher again on the same old regurgitated news: namely speculation that a deal to end the war between the US and Iran is getting closer, the same exact "speculation" that has pushed the Nasdaq higher for what will now be 13 days in a row, and the same speculation that may keep pushing stocks even higher until the reality of no ceasefire sends risk plunging in a few days. For now however, it is sufficient to lift markets thanks to the relentless CTA VWAP grind higher, and as of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.4% higher, with Spoos trading above 7100 while Nasdaq futs gain 0.3% after both gauges hit record highs Thursday, with all Mag 7 stocks trading higher in the premarket (MSFT +1.1%, AAPL +0.8%). Netflix tumbled 10% after it gave a disappointing Q2 forecast and Reed Hastings announced he is stepping down as Chairman. The dollar was down 10 bps and headed for a February low. Global bonds were mixed, with the 10-year Treasury yield down two basis points at 4.30%. Overnight, headlines were largely quiet: while the date of the second round of US-Iran talk has not yet been determined, Trump signaled that talks could resume this weekend. Oil prices are extending their decline: WTI is down $4 below $88 with both Brent and WTI are both down around 4% for the session as traders await details of talks between the US and Iran following optimistic comments from President Trump. Base metals are all higher led by aluminum (+0.6%); Ags are mostly lower.  No economic releases are expected today. Fed’s Daly, Barkin and Waller are scheduled to speak at events. Fed’s blackout period begins Saturday.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Microsoft +1%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Tesla +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Nvidia +0.2%, Meta +0.2%)

• Alcoa (AA) slips 2% after the aluminum company said first-quarter earnings were hurt by higher costs and operational disruptions.
• Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) rises 3% after reporting earnings that beat estimates, fueled by consumers purchasing more cars even as gas prices rose.
• Autoliv (ALV) gains 9% after the company saw better-than-expected sales in the first quarter, with particular strength seen in March. CEO Mikael Bratt says in an interview it isn’t wholly clear what was driving the boost, but says some of it may be pre-buying effects as vehicle manufacturers looked to shore up inventories amid rising volatility.
• Knight-Swift (KNX) slips 1% after the transportation and logistics services provider reported preliminary adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Netflix (NFLX) tumbles 10% after the streaming company gave a forecast for the second quarter that fell short of analysts’ expectations, underwhelming Wall Street just months after it lost out on a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.
• NiSource Inc. (NI) gains 2% after the company announced a new long‑term energy agreement with a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. to support the development and operation of a large‑scale data center in northern Indiana.
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) rises 5% as Stifel upgrades to buy, citing the semiconductor manufacturing company’s solid preliminary revenue.

In other corporate news, Apple’s marketing executive in charge of the Apple Watch, AirPods, health and smart home initiatives said he’s retiring, marking a changing of the guard for a series of key product lines. SpaceX has moved up a scheduled vesting date for shares awarded to employees to as soon as next week, ahead of an IPO. Increasing demand for AI services could continue to raise chip costs throughout the year, note Ericsson executives. Uber is raising its holding in Delivery Hero, buying a stake from its European rival’s biggest shareholder for €270 million ($318 million). 

One of the most powerful rallies since World War II looks set to continue Friday as investors look past mixed signals on a Middle East peace deal, a muted Netflix outlook and the prospect of further US-Iran talks this weekend.  As measured by the 14-day relative strength index, it took the US benchmark just 11 days to lurch from an oversold reading to Thursday’s arrival in overbought territory. That’s only outpaced by an even faster rally in 1982. Explanations for the abrupt change in momentum point to a combination of hedge unwinding, systematic buying and short covering by hedge funds in macro products.

While the Nasdaq’s 12-day winning streak has propelled the index to fresh all-time highs, tech valuations remain near their 10-year average. Earnings estimates have been rising in concert with stocks, keeping forward price-to-earnings ratios at low levels.

“This reset provides a more constructive entry point in equities, particularly across large-cap quality growth,” said Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities head of equity and equity derivatives strategy.

Brent dropped 4% below $96 a barrel after Trump claimed that Iran has made key concessions in negotiations with the US (Iran later denied it). The drop accelerated after Axios announced that the US is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal (Iran has yet to deny that). 

Yet for all the optimism, the key transit route for about a fifth of global crude shipments remains all but shut under US and Iranian blockades. Some Gulf Arab and European leaders said that a US-Iran peace deal could take about six months to agree. And despite its overnight tumble, Brent continues to trade about a third higher since the conflict began in late February, with no clear indication of when flows through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. Bank of England policymaker Sarah Breeden warned that the war could trigger several market stresses at once.

“As we are heading closer and closer to May, the situation becomes serious,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “If no real traffic is seen by June at the latest, things will take a different turn.”

Not that the market cares: bond and equity stress measures show markets are growing more sanguine about an eventual resolution to the conflict. The V-shaped market recovery has meant investors hedging using monthly puts held to expiry have got little benefit in return for eating carry costs. 

“Now that the dust appears to be settling on events in the Middle East, market attention will once again focus back on the fundamentals, in particular earnings given that the season has just started,” said Daniel Murray, deputy chief investment officer at EFG Asset Management. “Earnings expectations are buoyant, consistent with solid underlying macro trends.”

“It’s all about earnings. EPS estimates for 2026 and beyond continue to march higher. Investors are oblivious to anything else,” said Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist, BCA Research.

Trump struck an optimistic tone about prospects for a permanent ceasefire with Iran. “It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal,” he told reporters at the White House. Talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend, he added. He also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Less encouragingly, some Gulf Arab and European leaders said a peace deal would take about six months to be agreed. 

In politics, Democrat Analilia Mejia is projected to win the special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. President Trump sought to assuage voters’ fears about the cost of living despite higher energy prices stemming from his war in Iran at a rally to build support for his economic record ahead of November’s midterm elections.

European stocks are inching higher, with Stoxx 600 up by 0.2. Alstom SA shares slid the most in over two years in Paris after the manufacturer withdrew financial guidance for this fiscal year. 

Asian equities retreated ahead of the weekend as investors await progress in talks to extend the US-Iran ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.2%, with TSMC and Mitsubishi UFJ among the biggest drags on the gauge. Most major markets were in the red, and Japan’s Topix Index fell more than 1%. Enthusiasm for technology stocks has also waned, with chipmaking giant TSMC’s Taipei-listed shares leading declines in part due to investor unease over its heavy reliance on a small number of hyperscaler customers.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% and there are modest moves in other major currencies.

In rates, treasuries drift higher over Asia, early London session leaving yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, following similar price action across European bonds as speculation grows that a peace deal between the US and Iran is getting closer. US 10-year yields trade close to session lows into the early US session at 4.295% with bunds and gilt trading marginally cheaper on the day in the sector.  In the UK, the yield on 10-year gilts held steady after Thursday’s move higher. New details about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador have rekindled doubts about his grip on power. The pound was little changed. US session focus includes a handful of speakers, such as Waller on the economic outlook (2pm New York) ahead of Saturday’s start to the communications blackout period. Treasury auctions next week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday

In commodities, oil prices are extending their decline but there are few signs of positive spillovers to other assets. Brent and WTI are both down around 4% for the session, as traders await details of talks between the US and Iran following optimistic comments from President Trump. Gold prices are steady slightly short of $4,800/oz.

US economic data calendar slate empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (11:30am), Barkin (12:15pm) and Waller on the economic outlook (2pm — text and Q&A expected). Fed’s external communications blackout period begins Saturday, ahead of the April 29 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.5%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.6%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.7%
• CAC 40 +0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.3%
• VIX +0.2 points at 18.14
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1192.11
• euro +0.2% at $1.1799
• WTI crude -3.3% at $91.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The disruption of ME oil supplies due to the war in Iran has sparked a rush for US crude. Data on ship movements show about 70 VLCCs, or very large crude carriers, sailing towards the US Golf Coast mainly from Asia. The number is more than double last year’s average. Nikkei
• President Donald Trump said a deal to end the war in Iran could be reached soon, although the timing remained unclear, while U.S. allies were gathering on Friday to discuss reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route. BBG
• A Pakistan-flagged tanker that entered the Persian Gulf over the weekend became the first carrier to exit through the Strait of Hormuz with a crude cargo since the US blockade began on Monday. BBG
• The Strait of Hormuz remains in focus as the UK and France host a Paris summit to discuss a naval force to ensure freedom of navigation. Trump, meanwhile, moved to calm voters’ concerns about conflict-driven energy costs at a speech in Las Vegas. BBG
• The US Congressional Progressive Caucus discussed trying to force repeated House votes on Iran war powers resolutions, Punchbowl reports.
• The US plans to help build a first-of-its-kind industrial hub in the Philippines to boost production of inputs crucial to American supply chains. BBG
• The RBI urged state-run oil refiners to curb spot dollar purchases and tap a special credit line for their FX requirements. BBG
• The US government is at risk of losing its status as the lowest-cost USD borrower as global investors grow wary of Trump’s volatility. FT
• Keir Starmer fired the UK foreign office’s top civil servant, Olly Robbins, a person familiar said. The PM faces renewed calls to quit himself after revelations that his US envoy Peter Mandelson was granted security clearance despite officials’ objections. BBG
• Delays to a swath of new US data centers threaten to slow the rollout of AI by the world’s biggest tech companies, with almost 40 per cent of all projects due this year at risk of falling behind schedule. FT
• US President Trump posted "Sadly, Mayor Mamdani is DESTROYING New York! It has no chance! The United States of America should not contribute to its failure. It will only get WORSE. The TAX, TAX, TAX Policies are SO WRONG. People are fleeing".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as markets lost steam following the recent rallies and with participants paring risk heading into the weekend, despite the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire taking effect and optimism by US President Trump regarding a deal between the US and Iran, which he said could resume talks over the weekend. ASX 200 was subdued with weakness seen in gold miners, financials and the consumer sectors, although the downside is limited amid a lack of fresh catalysts and a quiet data calendar. Nikkei 225 pulled back from its all-time record highs and just about returned to beneath the 59,000 level, with underperformance seen in some miners, manufacturers and semiconductor names. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by tech weakness, while participants also digested some earnings releases, including from Kweichow Moutai, which reported a 5% drop in FY profit.

Top Asian News

• Chinese scientists have reportedly developed diamond coating, which could improve cooling efficiency of AI data centres by around 80%, SCMP reported.
• China State Planner Vice Chair said economic operations are showing positive changes with significant improvements on both supply and demand side. Will reserve a batch of macro policy measures and roll out in a timely way based on needs.
• Fitch said China's credit outlook remains constrained by weak domestic demand, adds Iran war has added external pressure through weaker energy, trade and global demand.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan Bank for International Cooperation is to establish new investment window of up to JPY 600bln to assist Asian nations in securing energy supplies.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are broadly gaining on the last day of the trading week. The FTSE MIB is the slight outperformer, while the FTSE 100 lags as miners underperform. European sectors are mixed. Media tops the sector pile, closely followed by Technology while Basic Resources resides at the bottom of the pile.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer's Chief Secretary Darren Jones said PM won't resign and didn't mislead Parliament, via BBC. The PM has not knowingly or unknowingly misled Parliament. He also stated that PM Starmer is furious; does not think it brings his future into question.
• Senior UK Minister said PM Starmer has not considered resigning amidst called for resignation following Mandelson scandal, according to BBC.
• UK Foreign Office senior official Sir Olly Robbins is leaving his post following the Mandelson vetting row, according to The Guardian's Political Editor Crerar.
• UK PM Starmer faces resignation called over Mandelson vetting, according to The Telegraph.
• EU is planning its biggest relaxation of corporate merger rules in decades, while EU competition commissioner Ribera said merger rules are to favour scale and innovation, according to FT.

FX

• DXY is a touch lower on the day with crude benchmarks trading lower by around -3% as news emerged that a Pakistani-flagged tanker became the first crude carrier to surpass the US Blockade since Monday. Elsewhere on geopolitics, reports suggested Indian refiners are paying for Iranian crude in CNY, reporting which may have added to pressure in the USD. (Comprehensive geopolitical analysis on the headline feed)
• DXY trades a touch above the 98.00 level, which it has tested in recent days, while USD/JPY reversed from a high of 159.53 to move towards the 159.00 mark. On the latter, BoJ Governor Ueda was on the wires overnight, he reiterated that monetary conditions remain highly accommodative.
• Elsewhere, AUD mildly leads given its high-beta characteristics with gold also firmer, and the aforementioned reports that CNY was used to pay for Iranian crude. AUD/USD lifted from a 0.7154 base to mark a session high of 0.7182
• Sterling resilient to the political risks that emerged on Thursday afternoon. The UK PM is now facing calls to resign after news that Mandelson failed his vetting process for the Foreign Office. Some MPs have been calling for Starmer to resign: “I fail to see how Starmer survives this.”, one told the iPaper. Though close aides, like Chief Secretary Darren Jones, said the PM won't resign and didn't mislead Parliament. Starmer himself has denied any knowledge of the failed vetting. Given these reasons and the fact that PM has repeatedly said he wishes to see out his term with cabinet ministers recently voicing support for him, Gilts and Sterling, which initially weakened on the news, pared their respective losses.

Central Banks

• BoJ Governor Ueda said G20 discussed impacts of Middle East on prices and on the global economy, adds many said the Middle East is an important factor and remains uncertain. Supply shock-driven inflation is harder to tackle than demand-driven. Rising oil prices put upward pressure on underlying inflation, but worsen Japan's terms of trade and weigh on the economy. Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative and Japan's real interest rate is low. BoJ will decide policy based on likelihood of forecast materialising and risk at each meeting.
• ECB's Muller said market's rate bets are not completely unreasonable, its hard to argue there is an obvious case for an April hike; can not fully exclude it. Dangerous to assume energy shocks are temporary. ECB is better placed than it was in 2022 - does not have to wait to see second-round effects.
• BoE's Breeden says the Middle East conflict raises the risk of correlated shocks across markets. On repo markets, would authorise considering reforms to gilt repo markets to improve resilience.
• Danske Bank sees two rates hikes by the Riksbank by August.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed/flat, but have held an upward bias throughout the European session, with the crude complex residing towards lows. Focus remains on the geopolitical front, with Lebanon-Israel having agreed to a ceasefire (but there have been reports of flare-ups in the south of Lebanon), whilst the US-Iran have yet to agree on a second round of talks. Nonetheless, President Trump continues to remain positive, suggesting that “they are making a lot of progress on Iran, and he is not sure the ceasefire needs to be extended”.
• USTs are currently trading firmer by a couple of ticks and toward the upper end of a 111-04 to 111-09+ range. Aside from lower energy prices, US paper has not had much to digest, and this has been reflected in the fairly lacklustre price action. The US data docket is lacking, so more focus will be on Fed speak via Daly, Barkin and Waller later today.
• Bunds are flat, but have been moving higher throughout the European morning, alongside the pressure seen in the crude complex. Currently trading at the upper end of a 125.11 to 125.46 range. Earlier, there was some commentary from ECB’s Muller, who struck a familiar hawkish tone, noting that an April hike cannot be excluded; comments which add on to the hawkish tone struck by other ECB members and the Minutes released on Thursday.
• Gilts are firmer by around 10 ticks, where UK paper reacted to domestic politics. In brief, reports on Thursday suggested that Mandelson failed his vetting process for the Foreign Office – this has led to the Top Foreign Official to leave his role. This renewed some pressure for the PM to leave his position, but Chief Secretary Darren Jones, said the PM won't resign – he struck a familiar line, where he suggested that Starmer had no knowledge of the failed vetting process. At least in the near term, the pressure on Starmer appears to be limited in nature, though MUFG highlights that the Labour Party could run into issues surrounding the local elections in early May. UK paper currently trades within a 87.83 to 88.38 range.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect at 17:00EDT/22:00BST on Thursday, though Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected Hezbollah’s demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, saying forces would remain in a security zone extending to the Syrian border. A Hezbollah source said Lebanon retains the right to resist by all means while Israeli forces remain, while Iran welcomed the ceasefire but also called for a full withdrawal. This morning, reports made the rounds that Israeli forces targeted an ambulance team in southern Lebanon (which breaches the ceasefire), although reporting on this was light overall. On Iran, President Trump struck an optimistic tone on prospects for a permanent US-Iran ceasefire and said Tehran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though some European and Gulf Arab leaders cautioned a deal could still take around six months; Trump nevertheless said an announcement could come soon. Meanwhile, a source told Al-Mayadeen that starting Friday at noon (10:00 BST), anyone wishing to cross Bab al-Mandab should be more vigilant than ever before in all six directions, while other reports said the warning was made by a resistance commander.
• Crude price action has been choppy this morning, prices fell on hopes of reduced Middle East supply disruption, with Brent Jun'26 moving towards USD 98/bbl (USD 96.15-98.98/bbl range) and WTI Jun'26 sub-90/bbl (in a USD 87.46-90.34/bbl range), before recovering slightly on the Lebanon ambulance report. New lows were hit shortly after wires re-ran overnight reports of a Pakistani-flagged tanker exiting the Persian Gulf, whilst other reports suggested Indian refiners are paying for Iranian crude in CNY. Do note the low for today is a moving target, at the time of writing.
• Spot gold trades within a narrow range, awaiting the next macro impulse. Ranges are narrow within USD 4,768-4,806/oz. Spot silver found some support near its 100 DMA (USD 77.95/oz) but remains contained to a USD 77.77-79.26/oz.
• Base metals flat/mixed with copper futures contained within a narrow band amid a lack of macro headlines ahead of a weekend of risk. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,182.53-13,300.60/t range at the time of writing.
• Indian refiners are reportedly settling rare cargoes of Iranian oil purchased under a temporary US sanctions waiver using CNY through ICICI Bank.
• Cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East have reached 521mln barrels, according to Kpler's Baker.
• South Korean officials say that a South Korean tanker, carrying crude oil, has passed through the Red Sea route from Saudi's Yanbu port, AP reported.
• IEA chief said markets must brace for significant price surges if critical oil transit route remains closed, while IEA signals it's not ready yet to release more reserves, though the option is being evaluated.

Geopolitics: Iran

• IRNA states that security and traffic measures have been intensified in Islamabad, preparing itself for a major international event, while highlighting that Pakistani officials have not yet confirmed or denied any negotiations, Iran International reported.
• US President Trump said Iran war is going swimmingly and should be ending pretty soon, adds going to see some incredible results.
• Israel and Lebanon 10-day ceasefire takes effect.
• US President Trump posted "I hope Hezbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an GREAT moment for them if they do. No more killing. Must finally have PEACE!".
• Israel reportedly launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon minutes before the ceasefire, according to an Asharq correspondent.
• Iran stresses the need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, according to Iranian media citing a Foreign Ministry spokesman.
• Iran welcomes ceasefire in Lebanon, said was part of Iran-US ceasefire understanding mediated by Pakistan, Iranian media reported.
• Lebanon's Army noted intermittent shelling on southern Lebanese villages after the ceasefire took effect.
• ISNA noted that the Lebanese army announced that the Israeli regime bombed several villages in southern Lebanon after announcing the ceasefire agreement.
• "Israeli forces target ambulance team in south Lebanon", Al Jazeera reported.
• IRGC said the army and the IRGC are ready to respond forcefully to any "aggressive and criminal act of the enemies", IRGC public relations channel reported.
• US Central Command said USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Arabian Sea and no vessels are violating the blockade so far.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Italy's Giorgetti yesterday; also met with Ukraine PM; and with UK Chancellor Reeves and EU Commissioner Dombrovskis. Discussed Iran and Energy. Also met with Japan Finance Minister.
• French President Macron and UK PM Starmer are to hold a summit today on a plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz and are expected to brief US President Trump following the meeting, according to FT.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• Governor said that Russian drones attack damaged port infrastructure facilities in Ukraine’s Odesa region overnight.
• G7 reaffirmed backing for Ukraine, including energy needs ahead of winter, and agreed to sustain pressure on Russia while they discussed Chernobyl repair efforts and IMF reform progress.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from a beautiful start to the day here in Copenhagen. The birds are probably chirping merrily but as my man-flu has gone straight to my head I can't hear anything. An ideal excuse when I encounter difficult questions about the war from clients.

On that topic, there has been a little bit of derisking globally over the last 24 hours but markets remain broadly optimistic about the direction of travel. Oil prices are retreating back a little this morning with Brent crude down -1.09% to $98.31/bbl, after a +4.70% rise on Thursday that saw it almost reach $100/bbl again. There is some profit taking in Asia ahead of the weekend though, with the Hang Seng (-1.38%) leading the losses followed by the Nikkei (-0.96%) and the KOSPI (-0.90%). Other Asian markets are down two or three tenths of a percent. US equity futures are fairly flat.  

The retreat in oil from yesterday’s high came as President Trump struck an optimistic tone on prospects for resolution, saying "It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal”. He predicted that agreement would be reached “fairly soon” and said that he would extend the current two-week ceasefire if a deal was close. The US President also claimed that “they’ve agreed to almost everything”, including handing over the “nuclear dust”, though there’s been no confirmation of this from the Iranian side. Earlier, Trump also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and he said that he’d be inviting Israel’s PM Netanyahu and Lebanon’s President Aoun to the White House. This ceasefire formally came into effect overnight.

Oil had moved higher for much of yesterday’s sessions following multiple more negative headlines, which dampened hopes about a near-term peace deal between the US and Iran. For instance, Reuters reported yesterday from two Iranian sources, who said that the US and Iranian negotiators had scaled back their ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal, and were instead looking at a temporary memorandum that would prevent a return to conflict. Moreover, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said in a report that “Iran has emphasized through Pakistani mediation that the US must first fulfill its commitments”, and that “without going through the preliminary arrangements and reaching the necessary framework, these negotiations will be of no benefit”.

That backdrop meant that oil prices moved higher yesterday, with Brent crude (+4.70%) closing at $99.39/bbl. Yet despite the latest advance for oil prices, the US equity rally continued. So not only did the S&P 500 (+0.26%) reach another record high, but yesterday saw the NASDAQ (+0.36%) advance for a 12th consecutive session for the first time since 2009. In fact, if we get a 13th advance today, it would be the longest run of consecutive gains since 1992.

Generally I'm sympathetic to the view that a resolution is more likely than not over the coming weeks even if the path is unlikely to be a straight line. However the CoTD (link here) yesterday reminded us that the last time we had a larger move in the S&P 500 in 11 business days than we’ve just seen since March 30 (+10.7%) was back in March 2022. Back then, it was because of expectations that Russian and Ukraine talks would end up in an early ceasefire to the war which was only weeks old at the time. That obviously didn't end well and the bear market soon continued. So one warning sign from the recent past.

However the macro environment was quite different back then and we were in the early stages of a big rate shock, waking us from the ZIRP slumber. Today the environment outside the war is healthier and there was further evidence yesterday, with the weekly initial jobless claims falling back to 207k in the week ending April 11 (vs. 213k expected). The labour market is showing many more signs of strength now than it did pre-war.

US Treasury yields crept higher as the upward move for oil continued. So the 2yr yield (+1.3bps) inched up to 3.78%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) saw a slightly larger move to 4.31%. The only obvious driver was the oil move, as there weren’t materially new policy signals from Fed officials. In fact, New York Fed President Williams said given everything that was changing, “it doesn’t make sense for us to try to be giving strong forward guidance”. Governor Miran did again say that the Fed should lower rates, though in favouring “three, maybe four cuts this year”, this was perhaps a slight moderation of his dovishness given he penciled in four cuts in the March SEP. Miran had favoured a full 150bps of 2026 easing at the start of the year. Incidentally, today is the last chance for us to hear from Fed officials before the next meeting, as their blackout period begins tomorrow. That said, the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair is next Tuesday, so that will be one to watch.

Earlier in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a stronger performance. That partly came as investors reacted to a Bloomberg report after the previous day’s close, which said the ECB was leaning towards keeping rates on hold in a couple of weeks. So that eased concerns about a hawkish reaction to higher energy prices, and market pricing for an April rate hike fell to just 13%, the lowest in over a month (86% at the recent peak). In turn, that helped to bring yields down, with those on 2yr bunds down -2.7bps, while further out the curve yields on 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-1.2bps) saw more modest declines. However, equities slipped back slightly given the oil move, with the STOXX 600 down -0.05% by the close.

Finally in the UK, 10yr gilt yields (+3.4bps) saw a sharp move higher in the afternoon, driven by a Guardian story that former US ambassador Peter Mandelson had failed his security vetting clearance for that appointment, and the decision had been overruled by the Foreign Office. So that was seen as a problem for Prime Minister Starmer’s position, as he’d previously told the House of Commons that “full due process was followed”. That led to a negative market reaction, because the consensus view is that Starmer’s replacement would face pressure to ease the fiscal rules and borrow more, leading to higher gilt issuance. Meanwhile, gilts had been slightly underperforming even before that report, as data showed UK GDP grew by a monthly +0.5% in February (vs. +0.2% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one, but central bank speakers include the Fed’s Daly, Barkin and Waller, the BoE’s Breeden and Bill, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 08:47

Critical Shortage Of Jet Fuel: EU Airlines Have Just 6 Weeks Supply Left

Via Remix News,

The European market is facing a critical shortage of kerosene, with only six weeks of supply remaining, and the war in Iran is threatening the continent with a major aviation crisis.

Since the war broke out, jet fuel prices have jumped 70 percent, threatening the financial health of European airlines.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that this scarcity may soon lead to widespread flight cancellations across Europe.

To combat the dwindling supply, the EU is reportedly developing an emergency plan to maximize refinery output and stabilize fuel distribution.

Fatih Birol, the director of the IEA, stated that these disruptions are a direct consequence of the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

He emphasized the gravity of the situation, warning: “The longer the blockade lasts, the worse it will be for world economic growth and inflation.”

The crisis is expected to move from logistical warnings to direct impacts on travelers, according to Berliner Zeitung.

Birol told the AP news agency, “We’ll soon hear that flights from City A to City B are being canceled due to kerosene shortages.”

Describing this as the most severe energy crisis of his career, he predicted rising costs for gasoline, gas, and electricity globally.

He noted that the primary victims would be poorer nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America—the states “whose voices are least heard.”

Subsequently, before the crisis hits Europe and the Americas.

He specifically cited countries like Japan, South Korea, India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as being particularly vulnerable.

The industry is already seeing significant fallout from these rising costs.

Lufthansa has announced that, with immediate effect, it will terminate the flight offer of its regional subsidiary, Cityline, and from Saturday, it will stop 27 older aircraft.

CFO Till Streichert explained that the current emergency is forcing the airline to accelerate restructuring plans that were already in the works.

According to the Berliner Zeitung, the airline cited skyrocketing kerosene prices and recent strikes as the primary drivers behind these drastic measures.

While only 10 percent of Europe’s oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz, 50 percent of its kerosene arrives from the region, meaning airlines are especially vulnerable.

Other authorities put this figure even higher, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) stating that the Persian Gulf normally accounts for approximately 75 percent of Europe’s net kerosene imports. 

Airport operators are already calling the EU to take emergency measures, including a suspension of aviation taxes to ease the financial burden on airlines.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 08:05

Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

A massive drought has emerged across large swaths of the US agricultural belt, threatening crops and livestock and eventually affecting food prices, at a time when fertilizer and diesel costs are soaring. As of early April, 60% of the Lower 48 is in drought as the Northern Hemisphere growing season begins and farmers begin plantings, according to NOAA. 

The southern US is already experiencing severe, extreme, and even exceptional drought conditions, putting pressure on key crops such as sugarcane, rice, and peanuts, while fruit trees have also been damaged by extreme temperatures.

Across the Great Plains, otherwise known as the nation’s breadbasket, winter wheat farmers are being forced to decide whether to keep the struggling crop or cut losses and replant, with dry soil also making germination harder.

The drought also complicates matters for ranchers, as the nation's cattle herd is already at its lowest level since the 1950s. As a result, some ranches may further reduce their herds, which will only push beef prices to new record highs.

In the western US, the problem is not so much rainfall as shrinking mountain snowpack, which threatens irrigation supplies ahead of the growing season. Water-use cutbacks for agricultural purposes are already being discussed or imposed in places such as Washington’s Yakima Basin and along the Colorado River.

Related:

• Meteorologists Warn About Super El Nino Event

• Washington, D.C. Will Feel Like June. Cue MSM Climate Doom Propaganda

X user Tony Heller noted, "The US is facing a drought possibly similar to the drought of 1610, which wiped out the Jamestown Colonists."

The US is facing a drought possibly similar to the drought of 1610, which wiped out the Jamestown Colonists.https://t.co/3Iz9DZwLZv pic.twitter.com/8dyGFhaa0m

— Tony Heller 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 (@TonyClimate) April 13, 2026

 All bad news for food prices. Traders are piling into these agri ETFs: "Why The Fertilizer Crisis May Spark Record Inflows Into Agri ETFs." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 07:21

Madison Air Pulls Off Biggest U.S. Industrial IPO Since 1999 As Data Center Cooling Theme Heats Up

Madison Air Solutions surged 18% in its IPO on Thursday after raising $2.23 billion, pulling off the largest U.S. industrial IPO in nearly three decades. Shares closed at $31.75, signaling strong investor appetite for an industrial name tied to the AI infrastructure buildout.

The Chicago-based company designs and manufactures ventilation, filtration, and cooling systems for data centers, semiconductor manufacturing facilities, life sciences buildings, and commercial buildings. Most importantly, investors care about MAIR because it sells liquid, hybrid, and air-cooling equipment for data centers, tying it directly to the AI buildout boom. 

Data centers account for roughly 20% of MAIR's business. The company operates 30 brands and generated $3.34 billion in 2025 revenue, up from $2.62 billion a year earlier, though net income declined to $124 million from $236 million. Like many industrials operating in the US, it faces pressure from President Trump's tariffs, with imported metals adding more than $51 million in costs last year. 

On Thursday, MAIR closed at $31.75, up from its $27 offering price, giving the company a $15.5 billion. In premakret trading in New York, shares are around $32.

Last year, in the data center cooling theme, we penned a note titled "A Chilling Opportunity" on data centers, highlighting UBS analyst Joshua Spector's bullish coverage of Chemours as being well-positioned in coolant solutions for data centers. Year to date, Chemours is up 94%.

Looking ahead, Goldman analyst Mark Delaney provided color on the data center buildout earlier today: "Datacenter capex from leading public hyperscalers is now approaching ~$700 billion, roughly 10x the level in 2020." This only suggests that as chip stacks get more powerful and demand for energy and cooling rises, companies like MAIR and Chemours stand to be key beneficiaries.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 07:20

Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply 'Black Hole'

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.

One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.

It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.

The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.

Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."

Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 06:55

A Model For Europe? Switzerland Moves To Strengthen Country Against Foreign Property Owners And Migration

Via Remix News,

Foreign property owners will see their access to Swiss housing significantly reduced, as the Federal Council has decided to require authorization for their purchases. With foreigners accounting for more and more real estate transactions in the Western world, Switzerland’s tough measures may be a template for other nations.

The new measure aims to combat the housing shortage, especially as the population is set to vote in two months on the Swiss People’s Party’s (SVP) initiative “No 10 Million Swiss Francs,” reports Blick, based on a statement from the ATS Swiss Telegraphic Agency.

The Federal Council intends to require authorization for the purchase of primary residences by nationals of countries outside the European Union and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), it stated in a press release. If these owners relocate, they will have to resell their property within two years.

Foreign owners will also no longer be able to acquire commercial properties for the purpose of renting them out. The aim is to prevent purchases made solely for investment purposes. The purchase of shares in publicly traded residential real estate companies and units in real estate funds will also no longer be systematically permitted.

The government also plans to tighten regulations on holiday homes. The annual quotas that cantons have to authorize purchases by foreign owners will be reduced. Sales between foreign nationals will again require authorization. Any acquisition of holiday homes by non-Swiss buyers will reduce the cantonal quota by one unit.

“These proposals aim to refocus the Koller Law on its primary objective,” the Federal Council writes.

The draft bill is open for consultation until July 15.

This series of measures was decided in response to the Swiss People’s Party (SVP/UDC) initiative “No Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants.” The agrarian party wants to curb population growth by capping the resident population at 10 million.

The Swiss People’s Party (UDC) behind the proposal stated that rising immigration had resulted in “housing shortages and rising rents, traffic jams on the roads, crowded trains and buses, falling standards of schools, increasing violence and crime, electricity shortages, income stagnating per capita, ever-higher health insurance premiums, indebted social services, and increased pressure on the beauty of the landscape and the preservation of nature.”

If the new limit is exceeded, measures regarding asylum will have to be taken. And the free movement of persons agreement concluded with the EU could be terminated.

The Federal Council is clearly opposed to this text, which would jeopardize the agreements with Brussels reached at the end of 2024 after years of negotiations. The package still needs to be approved by the Swiss and European Parliaments. The Swiss people will then have their say.

With the amendment to the Lex Koller, “the Federal Council is closing a loophole in the stock market exploited by foreign investors,” the Socialist Party emphasized in a statement on Wednesday. According to the parliamentary group, this decision “sends a strong signal.” 

Filling this gap “is a long-awaited step forward for tenants and those wishing to acquire home ownership,” said the co-president of the Socialist Group, National Councillor Samuel Bendahan (VD), quoted in the press release. According to him, “foreign investors could easily enter the Swiss housing market via the stock exchange, circumventing the Lex Koller, without authorization or oversight.”

“It was high time to reverse the relaxations of the Lex Koller that have driven up prices, and thus rents, over the past few decades,” adds National Councillor Christian Dandrès (GE).

Across Europe, housing affordability has become a major issue. On one end, mass immigration has fueled tight housing markets, driving up housing prices and rent. At the same time, foreign investors are increasingly buying up more and more property, pricing out natives. In cities like Paris, foreigners own nearly 4 percent of residential housing stock. In other countries like Germany, foreigners buying up property is also an issue, but it is difficult to ascertain how much of the housing stock is owned by foreigners, as they often buy the property through a company registered in Germany and through numerous layers of shell companies.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 06:30

World's First Six-Gen Bomber Completes Aerial Refueling Test Flight

Northrop Grumman released new images of its B-21 Raider stealth bomber performing "more advanced stages of flight test" and "aerial refueling."

Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider continues to demonstrate outstanding performance as the program moves into more advanced phases flight test, including aerial refueling. (Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force)

The B-21 is the world's first sixth-generation aircraft and the "most advanced aircraft to take to the sky now has global reach," according to Northrop.

The B-21 Raider conducts aerial refueling with a KC-135 Stratotanker, which is a key part to the Raider’s role in projecting power globally. (Photo Credit: Northrop Grumman)

The test campaign of the B-21 comes as Eurasia is on fire in multiple conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict in the Gulf area.

Northrop did not say when the B-21 conducted the test flight but our reporting from mid-March had a timeframe then and over the Mojave Desert.

• Ready For War? New B-21 Raider Activity Spotted Over Mojave Desert

Northrop listed ten fun facts about the B-21:

1. Sixth-Generation Stealth

The B-21 Raider leverages decades of innovation to deliver superior stealth with extended range. Its advanced, fuel-efficient engines integrated into a sleeker airframe reduce tanker support reliance more than any previous bomber, enhancing agility and persistence across missions. 

The B-21 has demonstrated outstanding stealth performance in testing, showcasing the effectiveness of its advanced low-observable design that will allow it to penetrate the most sophisticated air defenses undetected.  

Modernized, low-observable processes will also make the B-21 easier and less costly to maintain than prior systems, ensuring the fleet's operational readiness for our nation's most critical missions.

2. Built to Deliver Strategic Deterrence

The B-21 Raider is designed to hold any target at risk, anywhere in the world. With the ability to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads, it provides decision-makers with flexible, survivable response options across the full spectrum of conflict. The B-21's open architecture will deliver seamless upgrades, enabling the Raider fleet to evolve its mission and weapons capabilities to outpace any threat.  

3. Mission-Driven Partnership

The development of the B-21 Raider is a testament to the results-focused collaboration between Northrop Grumman and the Air Force. Northrop Grumman's partnership is built on transparency and a commitment to shared success, exemplified by an industry-first agreement that provides access to valuable data, including the B-21 digital twin, enhancing affordability and agility in upgrades. 

As a proven partner, Northrop Grumman delivers effective, data-driven solutions that meet the demands of critical missions. Together, the company and the Air Force are demonstrating the B-21's capabilities against adversaries.

4. Strategically Investing

Committed to leading the way, Northrop Grumman consistently invests in the technologies and tools that empower the best fighting force in the world. To date, the company has invested more than $5 billion in the B-21 program's digital and manufacturing infrastructure. Our investments in manufacturing capacity are accelerating production, providing flexibility to support future fleet growth and ensuring long-term U.S. Air Force strike dominance. 

These investments power our digital ecosystem, equipping the B-21 Raider with highly advanced software, manufacturing and engineering tools. As a result, software certification time has already been reduced by 50%, ensuring the B-21 stays at the speed of relevance for future technology insertion. The ecosystem also enables real-time validation of aircraft performance during tests.  

5. Delivering Results that Ensure America Wins

Northrop Grumman's expertise in advanced aircraft systems is driving flight test results that showcase speed, efficiency and exceptional performance. 

Multiple B-21 Raider aircraft are currently in flight test, consistently exceeding expectations. Most sorties achieve "code one" status, indicating the aircraft returned from its flight without maintenance issues and is ready to go fly again. This reaffirms the quality of the design and build, and signals strong future operational performance. 

Simultaneously, Northrop Grumman engineers are conducting ground tests to ensure the B-21 can operate in the most extreme mission conditions. These test results consistently surpass digital modeling predictions, further validating the aircraft's design and capabilities.

6. Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing

Northrop Grumman's advanced manufacturing processes, including digital and augmented reality tools, enable technicians to visualize tasks and solve problems before ever touching the plane. This approach connects technicians to design engineers as never before, improving efficiency and cultivating expertise throughout the manufacturing workforce. 

Northrop Grumman has invested in manufacturing technology and capacity at our facilities across the U.S. to accelerate and scale production of the B-21 Raider. We are increasing production rates on capability that will project American power anywhere in the world.

7. More than a Bomber

As the world's most advanced aircraft to take the skies, the B-21 Raider combines unmatched range, access and payload in a single system designed to perform specialized missions no other aircraft can accomplish. 

Instrumental in maintaining U.S. and allied security amid a complex global landscape, the B-21 is a key part of a powerful family of systems. It delivers a new era of capability and flexibility by seamlessly integrating data, sensors and weapons – enabling precision strikes and comprehensive situational awareness.

8. Ready on Day One

Northrop Grumman is developing comprehensive training, sustainment and fleet management tools for the Air Force as they prepare to operate and maintain the B-21 Raider. Leveraging extensive flight test data and decades of sustainment experience across a variety of systems, these tools ensure the B-21 enters service ready, affordable and sustainable at scale. 

Test pilots report exceptional handling during aerial refueling, noting a high degree of stability and control. These qualities reduce training requirements and enable faster refueling, increasing operational tempo and agility – further proving that the B-21 will deliver unmatched performance for U.S. Air Force operators.

9. American Made Deterrence

An all-American team of more than 8,000 industry and Air Force personnel are designing, building, testing and delivering on the promise of B-21. The team consists of more than 400 suppliers across 40 states. This is a nationwide effort to provide deterrence capability that strengthens and defends our nation.

10. Bold, Innovative, Courageous

The B-21 Raider is named in honor of the Doolittle Raid of World War II when 80 airmen, led by Lt. Col. James "Jimmy" Doolittle, and 16 B-25 Mitchell medium bombers set off on a mission that changed the course of World War II. The raid was a catalyst for a multitude of future progress in U.S. air superiority and serves as the inspiration behind the Raider name and the pioneering, innovative spirit instilled across the workforce bringing the B-21 to life.

Separate but related to the defense world, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is preparing to fire up the "war economy" by asking automakers to convert car production lines into weapons manufacturing. It's a must-read report that can be found here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:45

Norway's Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War

Authored by Alex Komani via OilPrice.com,

Norway's crude oil export earnings surged 67.9% year-on-year in March to a record 57.4 billion kroner ($6.1 billion), primarily driven by soaring global energy prices following the outbreak of the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices averaged 1,014 kroner ($107.52) per barrel in March, the highest monthly average since September 2023.

As Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the Scandinavian country exported 56.6 million barrels of crude oil in March, good for nearly 2 million barrels per day. Norway’s natural gas export revenues also climbed 19% to over 69 billion kroner as Europe sought alternative energy sources amid Middle East instability, helping the country record a trade surplus to the tune of 97.5 billion kroner, its highest level since January 2023.

Norway’s windfall oil earnings did not escape the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump:

“Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” he wrote in Truth Social.

“Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea oil to the UK at double the price. They are making a fortune,” he added.

North Sea oil and gas production is in long-term, structural decline, with over 90% of its producible resources already extracted.

However, Norway has been able to maintain high production by expanding exploration in the Arctic Barents Sea, pivoting to new, smaller discoveries in the North Sea, and investing heavily in the Norwegian Sea.

The Barents Sea is widely regarded as one of the most promising, yet under-explored, oil and gas frontiers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with roughly 80% of its remaining hydrocarbon resources yet to be tapped.

Meanwhile, the Norwegian Sea is an increasingly attractive area of interest, with roughly 50% of its remaining oil and gas resources yet to be discovered.

About one-third of the estimated resources in the Norwegian Sea are located in unopened areas, including off Lofoten and Vesterålen as well as around Jan Mayen.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:00

Trump Says 'Probably, Maybe' Iran Talks To Resume This Weekend, 'Not Sure' About Ceasefire Extension Summary

• Trump says "probably, maybe" Iran talks resume this weekend, "not sure" about ceasefire extension. Iranian report (unconfirmed) says Bab al-Mandab could be forced close tomorrow.

• Trump unveils 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, but which Hezbollah has not signed on for, amid heavy IDF attacks on south. BBG reports on potential 6-month timeframe for comprehensive Iran deal, oil spikes.

• Iran seeks to boost rial through toll payment scheme; vessels pay Hormuz passage through Iranian banks.

• US Navy: vessels seeking entry into Hormuz Strait now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure - including for suspicion of 'contraband'.

• Hegseth: US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn’t agree to a deal & strait blockade to continue for as long as it takes. Already 14 ships have been turned around.

//--> //--> //--> Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Yes 70% · No 31%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Still Signals Ambiguity on Peace/Ceasefire Potential

President Trump appeared to confirm ceasefire talks with Iran are still very up in the air, saying that he also doesn't see the need to extend the current two-week ceasefire - "not sure," he said - also amid the going US naval blockade of Iranian-China oil exports, or other sanctioned vessels. With no extension, the ceasefire will expire on April 22.

"If there's no deal fighting resumes," Trump affirmed in fielding reporters' questions. Importantly, talks and timeline are still a big maybe:

President Trump told reporters the next in-person talks negotiating a deal for Iran will "probably, maybe" happen this weekend. He didn't say where, and other U.S. officials haven't confirmed any details.

He took the opportunity in the same remarks to slam the Pope. "If the pope looked at the 42,000 people that were killed over the last two or three months, as a protester, with no weapons, no nothing," he claimed, using the same unsourced numbers he's lately been throwing around.  "I mean, you take a look at that, so I can disagree with the pope. I have a right to disagree. I have a right to disagree with the pope."

Unverified alarming reports of next targeted waterway:

Iran's Axios: Bab al Mandab might close soon... https://t.co/2lLUEUQ0Bz

— berggeit (@_berggeit_) April 16, 2026

The president added, "The pope can say what he wants. And I want him to say what he wants. But I can disagree. I think that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. If they do, the whole world would be in jeopardy, the Middle East would blow up and the whole world would be in jeopardy."

"This is the real world, it's a nasty world," he said. "But as far as the pope and saying what he wants, he can do that." 

Also, Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium(?)... there's nothing from Iran saying this:

"They've agreed to give us back the nuclear dust," Trump told reporters at the White House, using his name for the enriched uranium stockpile that the United States says could be used to build nuclear weapons. "There's a very good chance we're going to make a deal."

And on the newly declared Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which does not include Hezbollah, Trump told reporters: "I responded to this call and agreed to a timeout, or rather a temporary ceasefire, of 10 days to try to advance the agreement that we began discussing with the ambassadors' meeting in Washington." He added: "For these peace talks, we have two fundamental demands: one, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Two, a sustainable peace agreement, peace from strength."

⚡️An hour before the ceasefire, Hezbollah rockets impact Nahariya pic.twitter.com/s83rPjOUfp

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 16, 2026 Gulf, European officials See Needing 6 Months for Iran deal: BBG, Oil Spikes

A big headline out of Bloomberg has sent oil prices higher:

Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter.

The leaders want the vital Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis may develop if that doesn’t happen by next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.

But important caveats remain: who are these "some" Gulf and "European leaders" - the latter who have remained far to the sidelines during this crisis, but who are yes still suffering the effects of the ultra-risky Operation Epic Fury Iran war gambit by Trump. Spike in crude...

Trump: Truce in Lebanon

President Trump has announced an apparent Lebanon breakthrough, announcing on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. This just after on Thursday Israel launched at least 50 airstrikes in a matter of two hours on South Lebanon, according to national media. Israel says late Thursday its forces have no plans to withdraw ground troops from Southern Lebanon. Operations there look to continue, but presumably the ceasefire means Beirut might not be hit in the interim. 

This week, Rubio oversaw historic peace talks between Lebanese officials and the Israeli government; however, which did not include Hezbollah. Both Tehran and Hezbollah have insisted that the Lebanon conflict should be resolved through the Pakistan mediated US-Iran process. The Lebanese government has little actual sway over Hezbollah, the country's single most well-armed and influential paramilitary organization, which has more missiles and arms than even the national army. This means it remains a big unknown whether this 10-day truce will hold. Trump's Truth Social message, which claims he solved "9 wars across the world" and a "lasting peace":

Defiant Iran Reasserts Toll System: Paid Through Iranian Banks

An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country's planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.

As for negotiations, there's optimism another round of US-Iran talks will occur, with both sides having agreed in principle, but Iran's government informed Pakistan that the US must back off its maximal demands.

Reuters: U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return ​to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters.

Below is a machine translation from the Persian of the fresh parliament statement via state-linked ISNA:

• The plan to consolidate Iran's sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz is being framed as a way to strengthen the rial.
• Iran is seeking a regulatory role in the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world’s most sensitive chokepoints -positioning it as oversight, not disruption or blackmail.
• Under the plan, foreign ships would settle accounts through offices in Iran or via the Iranian banking system, a move aimed at boosting the rial.
• Estimated current revenue from managing and regulating maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz: $10-15 billion.

Boarding, Search, & Outright Seizure

Ships seeking to enter the Hormuz Strait already sanctioned by the US just got a lot more vulnerable: under Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, they're now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure, per US Naval Forces Central Command.

"In addition to enforcing the blockade, all Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions, and vessels suspected of carrying contraband, are subject to belligerent right to visit and search," the notice said, referring to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. "These vessels, regardless of location, are subject to visit, board, search, and seizure."

The definition of "contraband" is broad and expansive. It spans weapons, ammunition, combat aircraft, and military electronics, WSJ has described. "Petroleum products and lubricants are conditional contraband due to their essential role in military operations and their contribution to Iran’s war-sustaining economy," the advisory also said. "Contraband is defined as goods that are destined for an enemy and that may be susceptible to use in armed conflict."

US Marine Corps image

Up until now, the blockade - initially rolled out Monday - was limited to ships moving in and out of Iranian ports, but the definition who can be targeted just widened. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Wednesday that in the first 48 hours, not a single ship made it past the blockade.

Hormuz Blockade: 'As Long As It Takes'

The US will maintain a naval blockade of Iran for as long as it takes, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated in a press briefing Thursday. He and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine say that US forces are ready to resume major combat operations at a moment's notice, which suggests the initial two-week ceasefire could get extended, as was widely reported the day prior. But this also suggests that Washington likely has no appetite for resuming major aerial operations directly against Iran anytime soon.

General Caine:

At each point, the United States Navy will transmit a warning—a young sailor, normally on the bridge of one of those destroyers. A junior officer picks up that mic and transmits, and I quote:

"Do not attempt to breach the blockade.

Vessels will be boarded for… pic.twitter.com/VT6LvPBUnT

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 16, 2026

On the question of resumption of major combat operations, Hegseth warned: "To Iran, choose wisely. I pray you choose a deal which is within your grasp for the betterment of your people and the betterment of the world." He followed with, "In the meantime, the War Department is locked and loaded." Additional main highlights to the Hegseth/Caine update and presser:

• Iran likes to say it controls Strait of Hormuz but it has no navy
• Energy industry not destroyed 'yet', US blockade shutting down exports
• For as long as it takes, we will maintain blockade
• Launching operation 'economic fury'
• Iran is digging out bombed out launchers
• I hope you choose a deal which is within your grasp

But again, the chief takeaway is that the Pentagon and Trump administration are making clear that US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn't agree to a deal. On that front, US officials say future talks are likely to be held again in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. Prior reports have indicated both sides have "agreed in principle" to engage in another round of talks.

Iran's PressTV touting ability to inflict global economic pain...

International Monetary Fund’s chief economist says that growth is expected to slow this year amid repercussions from the war against Iran and disruptions to global oil and gas trade.

Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/LWoNSpkc2J pic.twitter.com/ZAty9htTov

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 15, 2026 Pentagon: 13 Ships Turned Around

Since the blockade went live, US forces have already turned around 13 ships, according to Gen. Caine in the same briefing. He underscored how far this reach extends, saying operations will take place "inside Iran's territorial seas and in international waters."

Officially, the Pentagon claims the blockade is limited - targeting Iran’s ports and coastal areas while sparing vessels simply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, however, the net is touted as much wider, as US forces "will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran," including so-called "dark fleet vessels carrying Iranian oil," Caine added.

He confirmed that more than 10,000 service members are now involved in the blockade, but with more US servicemembers en route to the region.

Lebanon Still Bombed Heavily by Israel amid US Ceasefire Efforts

Israeli jets pounded Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon Thursday, unleashing one of the heaviest barrages there since the war began and sending black smoke billowing over the region. Strikes hit near the industrial zone and a supermarket on Nabih Berri Avenue, with nearby suburbs also taking damage, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency.

Iran has signaled urgency on de-escalation, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf calling ceasefire in Lebanon "as important as a ceasefire in Iran." He described, "In the Islamabad negotiations and afterwards, we have been seriously pursuing efforts to compel the adversaries to establish a permanent ceasefire in all areas of conflict." Pakistan's army chief is in Tehran mediating between Washington and Tehran.

⚡#BREAKING Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in a conversation with US Secretary of State Marco: "I am not willing to talk to Netanyahu"

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 16, 2026

Lebanon's leadership is in th emeantime framing any truce as a gateway to talks, despite Hezbollah having rejected direct talks with Israel. The ceasefire it is "demanding with Israel" would be a "natural entry point for direct negotiations," President Aoun said, adding: "Lebanon is keen to halt the escalation… so that the targeting of the innocents ceases, and the destruction of homes" stops.

Destruction of Al-Qasimia Bridge in Southern Lebanon

جسر القاسمية pic.twitter.com/u39LVosxnF

— Lebanon 24 (@Lebanon24) April 16, 2026

He stressed negotiations "are to be undertaken by the Lebanese authorities alone," and said "the withdrawal of Israeli forces… is an essential step," alongside redeploying the army "up to the international borders" to "end any manifestation of armed presence."

And yet Israeli strikes are now hitting infrastructure. A key bridge over the Litani River near Qasmiyeh - linking Tyre and Sidon - was reportedly destroyed, though Israel said it only "struck adjacent to it." The broader campaign is cutting off southern Lebanon, targeting chiefly Hezbollah positions, Israeli officials have claimed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:00