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Zero Rss

Virginia Supreme Court Blocks Democrats’ Voter-Approved Congressional Map As Midterms Approach

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Virginia Supreme Court Blocks Democrats’ Voter-Approved Congressional Map As Midterms Approach

The Supreme Court of Virginia has denied a request from Democrats and state officials to lift a lower-court order blocking certification of the April 21 redistricting referendum, leaving a voter-approved congressional map that could flip four Republican U.S. House seats in legal limbo just months before the 2026 midterm elections.

Supreme Court of Virginia

On Friday, the Supreme Court of Virginia denied an emergency request from Democratic Attorney General Jay Jones to allow the State Board of Elections to certify the results of the April 21 special referendum. The move keeps in place a Tazewell County Circuit Court ruling that halted any state action on the map, which Democrats designed to flip up to four Republican-held U.S. House seats and create a 10-1 Democratic advantage in Virginia’s 11-member delegation.

The move comes as the Supreme Court continues to review whether Democratic lawmakers followed proper constitutional procedures when they placed the mid-decade redistricting amendment on the ballot.

🚨 BREAKING: The Virginia Supreme Court has overturned the Democrat gerrymandering referendum, ruling that the process to put in on the ballot was unconstitutional.

Virginia will keep their 5 Republican districts. pic.twitter.com/MK4kFd6nBS

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) May 8, 2026

The decision does not represent a final ruling on the constitutionality of the effort. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on April 27 and is still weighing the core legal questions. As of May 8, 2026, no merits decision has been issued, and the new map remains blocked.

A Mid-Decade Power Play

The saga began in late 2025 after Texas Republicans redrew their congressional map mid-decade to gain seats. Virginia Democrats, who gained full control of state government after the 2025 elections, responded with a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts outside the normal 10-year cycle - specifically to “restore fairness” if other states gerrymandered.

The amendment passed the legislature in a special session and again in January 2026, was signed by Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, and went to voters on April 21. A heavily gerrymandered replacement map - passed by Democrats in February - accompanied the amendment. It splits Prince William and Fairfax counties into multiple districts in ways critics called “baconmandered” and would make 10 of 11 districts Democratic-leaning based on past voting patterns.

//--> //--> //--> Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 77% · No 24%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Voters approved the measure by a narrow 51.7% to 48.3% margin (roughly 1.604 million to 1.499 million votes) in a high-turnout special election that became the most expensive in Virginia history, with over $93 million spent.

Current Virginia House delegation: 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.

Democrats spent north of $80 million on the Virginia referendum.

Almost half of it came from Hakeem Jeffries' personal 501(c)4, House Majority Forward.

Louise Lucas, Don Scott, and Abigail Spanberger exerted so much of their political capital to get it passed.

All to be…

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) May 8, 2026 Republican Challenge and Lower-Court Block

Republicans immediately sued, arguing the Democratic-controlled legislature violated multiple constitutional requirements in advancing the amendment:

  • Exceeding the scope of a special session originally called for budget matters.
  • Failing to provide proper 90-day public notice or an adequate “intervening election” between the two required legislative passages.
  • Using misleading ballot language.

The case landed in conservative Tazewell County Circuit Court before Judge Jack Hurley Jr. Hurley ruled against the measure multiple times, including blocking the referendum itself (overturned by the Supreme Court to allow the vote) and, on April 22 - one day after voters approved it - issuing an injunction preventing certification and implementation.

Supreme Court Proceedings

During April 27 oral arguments, justices pressed both sides on procedural technicalities: the definition of an “election,” the validity of the special session, and whether post-election voter approval cures earlier defects. Justice Wesley G. Russell Jr. appeared particularly engaged with questions about early voting and public notice requirements.

Democrats argued that voters had spoken and that strict procedural challenges should not override the popular will after the fact. Republicans countered that the legislature “rammed through” the process in violation of constitutional safeguards designed to protect the amendment process.

On April 28, the Supreme Court denied Jones’s request for a stay, allowing the Tazewell injunction to remain in effect while the court deliberates the full appeal. The State Board of Elections has stated it cannot certify results until the high court rules.

High Stakes for 2026 Midterms

If the new map ultimately takes effect, it could deliver Democrats a net gain of four seats in the U.S. House - a significant development in a closely divided Congress during President Donald Trump’s term. Four Republican incumbents would face newly unfavorable districts.

If the Supreme Court ultimately strikes down the amendment or map on procedural grounds, Virginia would likely revert to its current lines (or the bipartisan commission’s map) for the November 3, 2026, elections. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, and candidates have already begun filing amid the uncertainty.

Crystal Ball 2026 House Ratings After Virginia Redistricting got struck down

🔴 Republicans: 211 (+3)
🔵 Democrats: 208 (-4)
🟡 Tossup: 16 (+1) pic.twitter.com/6VyKf9RP3I

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 8, 2026

The case is part of a broader national wave of mid-decade redistricting battles, with both parties accusing the other of aggressive gerrymandering.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 10:42
Tyler Durden

Massive Forest Fire Threatens Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, Radiation Closely Monitored

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Massive Forest Fire Threatens Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, Radiation Closely Monitored

It was only last month that Ukraine marked the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, but on Friday there is another major threat to the site, which Russia says it is closely monitoring, according to RIA.

A massive forest fire is sweeping through the Chernobyl exclusion zone on Friday after a drone crashed near the defunct nuclear plant a day earlier, Ukrainian officials have said.

Illustrative/AP: During a similar 2020 fire a radiation spike was detected at the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

As firefighters battle to contain the blaze, local officials further say that for now radiation levels remained within "normal limits"; however, there's been cause for alarm given the massive column of white smoke rising over the whole exclusion zone area.

Ukrainian sources did not identify who sent to UAV, but only state that the fire started Thursday "as a result of a drone crash." The Zelensky government has in the recent past frequently accused Russia of putting Chernobyl and other high secure nuclear sites under threat with its constant drone and aerial bombardment waves over the country.

Ukraine's emergency service agency said rescue teams are busy seeking to halt the spread of the fire, but wind has been playing a big part. "Due to strong gusts of wind, the fire is rapidly spreading across the territory, covering new sections of the forest," the agency said.

"The situation is complicated by dry weather, strong winds and mine danger in certain areas of the territory, which significantly limits the possibility of extinguishing work," it added. Belarusian media has estimated the fire is already more than 1,100 hectares, or over 2,700 acres.

A 2020 wildfire in the same area which was the result of arson had resulted in a radiation spike 16 times above normal levels. At the time, The Guardian had reported: 

The fire had caused radiation fears in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, which is located about 60 miles south of the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Government specialists on Monday sent to monitor the situation reported that there was no rise in radiation levels in Kyiv or the city suburbs.

So this current crisis does have the real potential to unleash higher radiation levels. That prior wildfire disaster saw the fire burn for weeks before it was extinguished.

Several prominent Ukrainian social media accounts have blamed the new fires on Russian shelling, or have also said it was a Russian drone that caused it...

😠 In Chernihiv region, about 2,400 hectares of forest are burning due to Russian shelling.

Firefighters are trying to contain the blaze and protect nearby settlements, but access is limited as enemy UAVs continue operating overhead. pic.twitter.com/StqIHZ7mSC

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) May 7, 2026

As for more recent alarming incidents at the defunct Chernobyl site, in 2025 an explosive drone had hit the protective containment shell of the plant. However, emergency crews were able to make it to the impact site on the immense roof and make repairs. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides pointed the finger at the other for that attack.

Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war - and nuclear officials have been keenly aware of this possibility.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 10:20
Tyler Durden

American Consumers Have Never Been Less Confident Despite Inflation Fears Easing; UMich

Zero Rss
1 week ago
American Consumers Have Never Been Less Confident Despite Inflation Fears Easing; UMich

With the "mini war" still ongoing (albeit with a 'ceasefire' in place), expectations were for a continued slide (already at record lows) in the American consumer's sentiment in preliminary UMich data for May released today.

And while the expectations were correct in direction, once again they underestimated just how bad things are as the headline UMich print fell from 49.8 to 48.2 (a new record low and below the 49.5 expectation).

Under the hood was more mixed with Current Conditions tumbling to 47.8 from 52.5 (new all-time low) while Expectations ticked up from 48.1 to 48.5 (better than expected).

Not a pretty picture with all three indices below 50.

Source: Bloomberg

The American Consumer has been less confident...

Overall, inflation expectations eased last month: Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month, and Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May.

The drop in inflation expectations is odd since all the underlying cohorts saw expectations rise?

The decline in headline sentiment was driven by a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases.

Republicans are losing faith...

UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu notes that real income expectations continued a decline that began in March.

About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs.

Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump.

Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 10:10
Tyler Durden

Trump Administration Drops First Batch Of UAP/UFO Files

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Trump Administration Drops First Batch Of UAP/UFO Files

On Friday, the Trump administration released the first official tranche of declassified UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) and UFO files through the new Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) - which of course was the alternative to the real incriminating Elite Presidential Shielding Taskforce Ensuring Impunity Now (EPSTEIN) files.

ack ack ack

The files are hosted at the official government site: https://www.war.gov/UFO/. This marks the start of a rolling release schedule (new materials every few weeks) covering decades of unresolved cases across multiple agencies, with a strong emphasis on unprecedented transparency.

BREAKING: The Trump administration releases, UFO and alien life files. These dumps are going to be a regular thing. https://t.co/nY0OoIQerq pic.twitter.com/Pipox7jSWQ

— Bruce Snyder (@realBruceSnyder) May 8, 2026

What’s Included in Release 01 (162 Files + Supporting Materials)

The initial drop focuses on 162 FBI documents, all in PDF format. These are unresolved cases where the government states it cannot make a definitive determination on the nature of the phenomena - often due to insufficient data - and explicitly invites public and private-sector analysis.

Mainstream reporting (Fox News, New York Post, and others) highlights additional materials in the broader release:

  • Apollo 12 and Apollo 17 mission photos showing strangely shaped objects and clusters of dots in the lunar sky.
Archival imagery from the Apollo 17 mission to the Moon. The yellow box contains an enlarged area of the original photo in which three lights are visible above the lunar terrain.
  • A transcript from Apollo 17 operators describing “very bright particles or fragments” drifting by the spacecraft, “big ones on my window,” and “jagged, angular fragments that are tumbling” - likened to “the Fourth of July.”

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP UFO DROP GOES DEEPER

New bombshell from the first batch of files: Apollo 17 footage that was buried for decades.

Astronauts captured bright particles and jagged, angular fragments tumbling past the spacecraft:
“There are big ones on my window… looks like the… pic.twitter.com/PoPAvwO8UK

— Big Daddy (@big_daddy_27) May 8, 2026
  • FBI photos from New Year’s Eve 1999 showing two black-dot UAPs flying near U.S. aircraft.
  • References to “the latest UAP videos” and other original source documents/photos (including a colored illustration of a UFO over a field).

Specific recent military sightings mentioned across coverage and X discussions include:

  • An inverted teardrop-shaped object with a vertically linear trailing mask over the United Arab Emirates (June 2024).
  • A “strange contrast” or unexplained area in the skies over Iraq (December 2022, per CENTCOM).

A U.S. military operator reported observing one “possible UAP” flying from west to east. The observer did not pursue the UAP - this video comes from DOW-UAP-D18, Mission Report, Iraq, December 2022 pic.twitter.com/FhwdmZLDLS

— Atlas of Mystery (@atlasofmystery) May 8, 2026
  • A small circular UAP flying low near the ocean surface toward land near Greece’s coast.

Video PR21 From the USG UFO Release 5/8/2026 pic.twitter.com/Sr2h9HTGez

— ProPixel Video Analysis and Research (@BillyKryzak) May 8, 2026

The Department of War (in coordination with ODNI and other agencies) described the effort as historic and government-wide, involving the review of tens of millions of records (many still on paper). Releases will continue on a rolling basis.

President Trump announced the release on Truth Social: “Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

In a subsequent 'truth,' Trump said: "As for my promise to you, the Department of War has released the first tranche of the UFO/UAP files to the Public for their review and study. In an effort for Complete and Maximum Transparency, it was my Honor to direct my Administration to identify and provide Government files related to Alien and Extraterrestrial Life, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, and Unidentified Flying Objects. Whereas previous Administrations have failed to be transparent on this subject, with these new Documents and Videos, the people can decide for themselves, “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?” Have Fun and Enjoy! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

“The Department of War is in lockstep with President Trump to bring unprecedented transparency regarding our government’s understanding of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. These files, hidden behind classifications, have long fueled justified speculation - and it’s time the American people see it for themselves. This release of declassified documents demonstrates the Trump Administration’s earnest commitment to unprecedented transparency," reads a statement from Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth.

And of course Russia is mocking the release:

⚡️BREAKING: Trump admin releases first batch of 'UFO' files https://t.co/8Ac7Bgh0vo pic.twitter.com/qBhTRdX7sp

— RT (@RT_com) May 8, 2026

Guess Epstein wasn't (isn't?) an alien?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:55
Tyler Durden

US Jobs Jump 115K, Smashing Estimates; Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 4.3%

Zero Rss
1 week ago
US Jobs Jump 115K, Smashing Estimates; Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 4.3%

In his preview of today's NFP report, Goldman's Delta One head wrote that "NFP almost feels like a sideshow at this point. You can argue weak labor data gives a Warsh led Fed enough cover to cut, but with oil and input inflation still elevated there’s also an argument that a weakening labor market alongside a constrained Fed is actually the more difficult combination for risk assets." With that in mind, moments ago the BLS reported that in April the US added a red hot 115K, above the median consensus of 65K (and near the upper end of the forecast range which peaked at 133K), down from an upward revised (for once) 185K (originally 178K). This was the first back to back gain in jobs in a year.

The change in February jobs was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported

A look below the surface reveals a less impressive picture: while payrolls rose to a new record high, actual employment has dropped to the lowest since January 2025...

... as the monthly change in payrolls has disconnected dramatically from actual jobs, which dropped by 226K in April and are now down 4 months in a row!

Also worth noting: while it's seasonal, in April the US saw 391K jobs added only in speadsheets thanks to a surge in Birth/Death model adjustments, the highest since October, and clearly a revision of the previous trend of revising birth death adjustments lower.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations, which is odd since all major ethnic groups saw their unemployment rate increase...

... while the Labor Force Participation Rate dipped to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little in April. These measures edged down over the year after accounting for annual population control adjustments. 

Wage growth came in cooler than expected, rising 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% expected, and translating into a 3.6% annual increase, also below the 3.8% expected.

Some more details from the April report:

  • The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 358,000 to 2.5 million in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 445,000 to 4.9 million in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
  • The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.1 million in April. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was also little changed in April at 475,000. 

Looking at the composition of the report, employment edged up by 115,000 in April, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. 

  • Health care added 37,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 32,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in nursing and residential care facilities (+15,000) and home health care services (+11,000).
  • Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 30,000 in April, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+38,000). However, employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 105,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025.
  • Retail trade added 22,000 jobs in April. Employment increased in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (+18,000) and in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+13,000). These gains were partially offset by job losses in department stores (-7,000) and in electronics and appliance retailers (-2,000). Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
  • Social assistance continued to trend up in April (+17,000), reflecting a gain of 24,000 jobs in individual and family services.
  • Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received (or will receive) pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.
  • Employment in information continued to trend down in April (-13,000). Telecommunications lost 3,000 jobs, while employment continued to trend down in motion picture and sound recording industries (-6,000) and in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-4,000). Information employment is down by 342,000, or 11.0 percent, since its most recent peak in November 2022.
  • Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Visually:

A few things stood out here: the monthly increase in courriers and messengers (i.e. DoorDash delivery(, +38K, was the highest since covid!

Government was also notable: total government jobs have now declined every month since October, and arr down 9 of the past 10 months.

But that is nothing compared to the depression in the Information sector, where jobs are now down every months since 2024!

Finally, looking at the quality composition of the jobs report, we find that in April, the US added 123K part-time jobs, while 424K full-time jobs were lost.

The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024!

The only silver lining: after plunging at the end of 2025 and start of 2026, and after a big drop in March, native-born workers rose by 341K in April, while foreign-born dropped by 326K.

In short, this was a much uglier jobs report than the clearly "nudged" headline indicates, although we doubt that anyone in the market will notice when all that matters if whether memory stocks today have momentum or not.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:25
Tyler Durden

Ukrainian Drone Strike Paralyzes Airports Across All Southern Russia

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Ukrainian Drone Strike Paralyzes Airports Across All Southern Russia

Russian cities and communities are busy preparing Victory Day WW2 memorial events all across the country ahead of Saturday, and so security is already on edge and on high alert, especially in the Moscow area, given that Ukraine's devastating cross-border drone attacks have persisted and expanded of late.

On Friday air traffic at 13 airports across southern Russia was suspended after drones struck a building at a regional air navigation center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia's transport ministry confirmed. This was the crucial air traffic control center for the whole region, and so its being taken offline has had significant impact.

Airspace empty over southern Russia

Regional media has listed that it halted flights to and from airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Gelendzhik, Grozny, Krasnodar, Makhachkala, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Sochi, Stavropol and Elista.

"The regional air traffic control center in Rostov-on-Don, which manages air traffic in southern Russia, has been temporarily adjusted due to the Ukrainian drone strike ... personnel are safe, and equipment is being assessed" to determine whether operations can be restored, the ministry said on Telegram.

According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, "Aeroflot, Pobeda, Nordwind and Rossiya Airlines said they were adjusting their flight schedules for Friday and would need to cancel some flights. At least 14,000 passengers were stuck due to delays and cancellations, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia said."

"Russia’s Transportation Minister Andrey Nikitin asked major airlines to coordinate with the state-owned Russian Railways and the Unified Transportation Directorate to arrange for trains and buses to transfer passengers from canceled flights," the report noted.

On the same day, over 260 drones were intercepted across various sectors of the country - which suggests that in total at least several hundreds were sent. Once again, some of them reached as far away as the Perm region in the Ural Mountains.

The drone waves have continued despite that Russia unilaterally announced a ceasefire corresponding with V-Day events commemorating victory over Germany in WW2. The ceasefire runs May 8-10; however, Ukraine has not acknowledged this.

Still, the Defense Ministry is acting as if it is on and it is official, having announced in a statement Friday morning that it has observed 1,365 violations by Ukraine since midnight.

✈️ A couple of drones paralyzed Russian aviation — airports are collapsing again

UAVs struck the building of the “Air Navigation of Southern Russia” branch in Rostov-on-Don. Operations at 13 airports have now been suspended.

Aeroflot is massively cancelling and delaying… pic.twitter.com/9A3B8XowAX

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 8, 2026

The Kremlin is putting the Ukrainian capital on notice, telling foreign diplomats to evacuate in the instance that Ukraine's military tries to disrupt Saturday celebrations in Moscow and Red Square.

Russian leaders have wared Kiev will get pummeled in an unprecedented bombing if President Zelensky orders any drone attacks on Moscow. He had actually appeared to threaten precisely these events during remarks earlier in the week.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:20
Tyler Durden

OpenAI Valuation Doubts Loom As Softbank Scales Back Margin Loan

Zero Rss
1 week ago
OpenAI Valuation Doubts Loom As Softbank Scales Back Margin Loan

SoftBank Group's abrupt scaling back of a planned $10 billion margin loan backed by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI - now targeting as little as $6 billion - reveals deepening lender unease over the AI giant’s $852 billion post-money valuation set in March 2026.

The move follows earlier $40 billion bridge financing and comes amid reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and weekly-active-user targets earlier this year.

While the loan itself is SoftBank’s problem, the episode carries real risks for OpenAI.

The clearest danger is a loss of valuation momentum (a down-round!).

Reuters reports that lenders, including banks and private-credit funds, balked at assigning reliable collateral value to unlisted shares in a company whose secondary-market demand has already cooled.

With sellers reportedly outnumbering buyers and rival Anthropic drawing stronger interest, the episode reinforces perceptions that OpenAI’s headline valuation may be frothy.

This could make future capital raises more expensive or dilutive, especially if OpenAI needs additional funding to service its enormous compute commitments - estimated in the hundreds of billions over the next few years.

An anticipated IPO, once seen as straightforward at premium multiples, might now face haircuts or heavier scrutiny from public-market investors wary of missing-growth signals.

SoftBank’s own leverage adds indirect pressure.

The Japanese conglomerate is one of OpenAI’s largest backers and has layered significant debt atop its AI bets.

Should credit markets tighten further or OpenAI’s performance lag, SoftBank could face margin calls or be forced to sell secondary shares - flooding an already thin market and driving down perceived value.

That, in turn, might erode employee and partner confidence, complicate talent retention in a hyper-competitive sector, and chill the broader AI investment narrative that has sustained OpenAI’s sky-high spending.

While none of this is immediately existential - OpenAI retains strong revenue growth, marquee partnerships, and Sam Altman’s (circular) deal-making clout - the SoftBank loan retreat is a tangible warning: private-market exuberance can evaporate quickly when lenders demand proof that eye-popping valuations match real cash flows.

If sentiment sours further, OpenAI could find itself navigating a far narrower runway than its $852 billion price tag once implied... and as OpenAI goes, so goes the hyperscalers' budgets as the circular financing of all this spend breaks down with any chinks in the armor of of OpenAI's exponential growth expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:04
Tyler Durden

Pandemic? Trump Remains Confident Hantavirus Situation Under Control

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Pandemic? Trump Remains Confident Hantavirus Situation Under Control

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on May 7 that he had been briefed on a hantavirus cluster tied to a cruise ship and that he was hopeful that the situation was still contained, as federal health authorities track the American passengers who returned home. The president also said he expected more information on Friday.

Trump offered his assessment to reporters regarding the outbreak aboard the MV Hondius, which had passengers from multiple countries, including the United States. The vessel was traveling from Ushuaia, Argentina, through Antarctic waters and made various stops before reports of severe respiratory illnesses began to emerge.

“It’s very much, we hope, under control,” Trump told a reporter from ABC News.

“It was the ship. And I think we’re going to make a full report about it tomorrow. We have a lot of great people studying it. It should be fine, we hope.”

Trump was then further pressed by the reporter on whether Americans should be concerned.

“I hope not,” he said. “We’ll do the best we can.”

The president noted that officials planned further announcements on the matter. Public documents from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention affirmed the U.S. government is following the situation closely with U.S. travelers aboard the ship. The State Department is leading a coordinated response, including contact with passengers and engagement with domestic and international partners.

“We have a lot of people—a lot of great people are studying it,” Trump said.

According to CDC statements, the risk to the American public is described as extremely low. Health officials in at least several states are monitoring individuals who disembarked from the affected vessel. No widespread transmission among the general population has been seen, according to available public health updates.

Hantavirus infections, generally tied to rodent exposure, can cause serious respiratory issues. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported cases related to the ship, such as confirmed infections and fatalities among passengers of various nationalities.

The CDC notes on its website ongoing technical cooperation with international partners on the outbreak.

The CDC has gathered experts on the specific hantavirus strain in question, revealed by the South African Ministry of Health on May 5 to be the Andes variant, which is understood to be capable of person-to-person transmission under limited circumstances.

Hantavirus has a history in the Americas.

The CDC has noted hundreds of cases in the United States over decades, particularly linked to rural rodent contact, not travel clusters.

This ship-associated outbreak stands out for its scale and setting, leading to rodent control reviews and sanitation assessments per international ship health guidelines.

The WHO said on May 7 that there are eight cases linked to the cruise ship, including the three individuals who died amid the outbreak. Five of the cases have been confirmed to be Hantavirus.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:40
Tyler Durden

Futures Rebound, Trade At All Time Highs On, What Else: Tech And Iran Optimism

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Futures Rebound, Trade At All Time Highs On, What Else: Tech And Iran Optimism

US equity futures are higher and just shy of a new record, with technology names leading futures higher ahead of April jobs report, after Trump’s assertion that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite an exchange of weapons between the US and Iran overnight, and a deep weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum. Markets are higher ahead of NFP data later this morning following yesterday’s very ‘unwindy’ session (High Beta Momo -7.96%, Software vs Semis +5.83%, Power -3.44%, HF VIP Longs -1.36%). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.5% and are back over 7,400 while Nasdaq futures gain 0.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA +0.9% and TSLA +0.9%.Sentiment reversed from Thursday's drop after Trump last night said the recent US strikes on Iranian military facility does not affect the ceasefire status. This morning there are reports that Iran seized an oil tanker for violations (one which was carrying Iranian oil). The Ocean Koi tanker attempted to “disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.” (Tasnim) Trump’s 10% global tariff under the Section 122 was found unlawful by the US Court of International Trade, but the outcome was mostly irrelevant. A busy night with AI headlines: (i) NVDA and IREN announce strategic partnership on AI infra; (ii) CoreWeave fell on weak revenue guidance and higher spending forecast; (iii) SK Hynix reported that they have received offers to invest in chip production lines. (iv) TSMC posted 17.5% growth in April sales, slowest in six months. Oil (WTI Crude) is unchanged at $94.80; bond yields are 1-3bp lower the 10Y yield at 4.38%; The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses. precious metals erased earlier gains with ags all higher. Today's economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). 

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.05%, Nvidia +0.9%, Microsoft +0.03%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Apple +0.8%)

  • Akamai (AKAM) rises 25% after the company announced that a leading frontier AI model provider had committed to $1.8 billion over seven years for its Cloud Infrastructure Services. The company also reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook.
  • Block (XYZ) gains 7% after the digital payments company forecast adjusted operating income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Expedia (EXPE) drops 7% after the online travel company forecast tepid gross bookings for the second quarter, with analysts pointing to macroeconomic pressures weighing on guidance.
  • Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 23% as Roth analyst Justin Clare raised the recommendation to buy on growing orders.
  • Forward Air (FWRD) plunges 45% after the transportation services firm said it received no actionable proposals for a sale.
  • JFrog (FROG) rises 14% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as conservative. Analysts highlighted an acceleration in cloud revenue growth as a highlight.
  • Innodata (INOD) climbs 39% after the professional services company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
  • Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 7% after the drinks company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate. JPMorgan raised its price target.
  • NLight shares (LASR) rise 13% after the maker of semiconductor laser products reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) climbs 7% as the space company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Trade Desk (TTD) falls 12% after the advertising-technology company reported adjusted first-quarter earnings that missed expectations.
  • Wendy’s (WEN) rises 4% after the fast-food chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In AI-related news, TSMC posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October, highlighting the potential challenges of sustaining a torrid AI-fueled pace of growth. AI data center operator CoreWeave gave a disappointing forecast for the current quarter, sparking concerns about slowing growth at a time when the company is spending heavily to bolster its operations.  SoftBank Group has downsized plans for a $10 billion margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake after facing hesitation from some creditors, people familiar with the matter said. And a key company behind Thailand’s national AI effort is suspected of helping to smuggle billions of dollars worth of Super Micro Computer servers containing advanced Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers. In other corporate news, Toyota Motor forecast an abrupt drop in operating profit due to higher raw material costs from disruptions stemming from the Iran war. Citigroup is expanding its foreign-exchange business with hedge fund and private-equity clients as global trading volumes rise

US stocks rose at the end of a week in which optimism that the conflict is nearing an end and blowout earnings from major tech firms drove the S&P 500 to a succession of records. Hopes that oil flows would soon resume through the Strait of Hormuz also eased inflation worries, even as uncertainty remains over how soon the US and Iran can reach an agreement. US markets were the standout performers on a tough day for stocks elsewhere as clashes in the Middle East risked undermining efforts to secure a permanent end to the war. Stock indexes in Europe and Asia fell. Brent advanced as much as 2.9% before trimming the move to trade just above $100 a barrel. Treasuries rose ahead of April’s payroll numbers, with the two-year yield falling one basis point to 3.90%. UK government bonds advance, led by longer-dated maturities after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party. 

“For now, investor sentiment remains strong as the equity market is looking through high oil prices,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “We continue to stress that the strength of earnings is heavily concentrated in IT sectors. These sectors are also the least exposed to physical supply chains and commodity pass-through.”

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran said it seized a tanker that appeared to be a sanctioned vessel carrying its own oil. Meanwhile, US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that they said were responsible for attacking US warships transiting the strait. The clashes came as the US awaited a response from Iran on a proposed deal to open Hormuz and end the war. President Donald Trump threatened more intense strikes if Iran refuses his terms.

A pause in worrying headlines out of the Middle East would allow markets and the Fed to focus on nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. New York for fresh clues about US economic resilience. Bloomberg Economics expects 57,000 jobs were added in April, slightly below sellside consensus for 65,000, while the “whisper” number is 71,000. Options pricing around the print continues to drift lower, with S&P 500 options implying only about a 0.6% move on the release (our full preview is here).

“I would expect a stronger-than-expected set of figures to keep Fed hawks in charge, without necessarily taming equity appetite,” wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Softer-than-expected figures “could revive dovish Fed expectations and provide further support to equity valuations, provided that war headlines leave some room for reaction.”

Jobs are a hot topic in more ways than one this Friday. Block offered a sunnier outlook for profits and growth after orchestrating layoffs linked to AI that executives said were painful but necessary. Cybersecurity firm Cloudflare plans to cut one-fifth of workers as it accelerates its shift to an agentic AI-first operating model. Upwork intends to reduce its workforce by about 24%, while Fidelity is overhauling its tech and product teams.  In all cases “the increased adoption of AI tools is a huge factor,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said on the recent bout of job cuts. He cautioned “this type of behaviour tends to be contagious.”

Meanwhile, investors flocked to cash and bonds last week and emerging market stocks saw their biggest outflows since January, according to Bank of America. The US had its sixth week of equity inflows at $9.3 billion, BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Elsewhere, aggregate retail investor equity flows on Citadel Securities’ platform surged back to elevated levels last week.  In other investing news, 43% of large cap active funds are outperforming their benchmarks, according to a BofA analysis of US mutual fund performance, better than the 29% that outperformed last year. Separately, some hedge fund categories, such as macro funds, appear to still have room to increase their equity exposures, according to JPMorgan strategists.

A pillar of support for equities may not be quite what it seems, according to Bloomberg Macro Strategist Simon White. Buyback announcements are surging this year. However, the risk of disappointment is rising as actual repurchases heavily lag the original commitments made, Simon writes. 

Jeffrey Gundlach said he was repositioning some of DoubleLine Capital’s funds for the scenario that the US government could restructure its debt in response to a potential future recession. A publicly-traded private credit fund managed by Goldman Sachs put two additional companies on non-accrual status in the first quarter, as the industry grapples with mounting concerns over exposure to businesses vulnerable to AI-driven disruption. 

With earnings season in its tail end, of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.5%, led by declines in insurance and travel stocks while media and energy outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

  • Bechtle rises as much as 6.9% following its first-quarter results as Jefferies says the IT services provider’s positive momentum has continued
  • Brembo shares rise as much as 8.5% and are set for a record weekly gain after robust first-quarter results that prompted Banca Akros to raise its recommendation on the Italian auto parts firm
  • Ferrovial rises as much as 3.6%, the most in a month, after the infrastructure group beats first-quarter expectations, with US managed lanes driving performance and construction also seen as solid
  • Pirelli advances as much as 3.4% after delivering an in-line performance in the first quarter and slightly boosting its revenue guidance for the full year
  • Rheinmetall shares fall 2.7% on Tradegate versus Germany’s Thursday close after JPMorgan cut its rating to neutral from overweight and slashed its price target by almost 30%
  • Deutsche Lufthansa falls as much as 2.7% after Barclays downgraded the airline to underweight from equal-weight, saying tailwinds from routes typically served via Gulf hubs are likely to fade as capacity returns
  • Commerzbank falls as much as 2.4% after its latest earnings. Analysts say the lender’s upgraded targets are ambitious, but also viewed with some skepticism as the bank steps up its defense against a hostile takeover attempt by UniCredit
  • Intertek shares fall as much as 7.9%, the most in two months, as the testing and inspection company rejects EQT’s latest takeover proposal of £58.00 per share in cash

Earlier, Asian stocks fell to trim weekly gains as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6% following a two-day rally as some investors took profit ahead of Iran’s response to a US peace proposal. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SoftBank weighed the most on the regional decline. Still, the index has risen more than 5% for the week and was poised for its longest winning streak since January, driven largely by a sustained tech rally. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Information Technology Index has surged over 13%, its best week since late 2022. Across the region, markets saw renewed risk-off sentiment on Friday after the US struck military targets in Iran in response to attacks on three Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia, Indonesia and Hong Kong were among the hardest hit.

In FX, the pound gains 0.4% after PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party; the dollar falls across the board. The Norwegian krone is leading gains among the G-10 currencies, rising 1.2%.

In rates, treasuries hold small gains in early US session, led by front-end and belly sectors as oil prices stabilize. Oil prices partially unwind Thursday’s rebound despite escalation of Middle East war, with US and Iran clashing near the Strait of Hormuz.  US yields richer by 1bp-2bp in belly of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.37% is down 1bp with UK counterpart outperforming by around 5bp. Gilts outperform as UK Prime Minister Starmer vows to stay on despite election setback. Gilts rallied over early London session after Starmer said he’d remain as Labour leader despite the party’s election losses

In commodities, oil prices are little changed with Brent crude futures near $100 a barrel. Precious metals rise with spot silver up almost 3% and on course for a fourth day of gains. Bitcoin rises 0.5%.

Today's economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (11:05am and 2:20pm). Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee are panelists at Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference (7:30pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.5%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
  • DAX -0.7%
  • CAC 40 -0.6%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.37%
  • VIX -0.1 points at 17.03
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1188.44
  • euro +0.4% at $1.1769
  • WTI crude -0.8% at $94.08/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump said Thursday that attacks on Iran after it targeted U.S. destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were a "love tap," and said the ceasefire between the two countries is still in effect. ABC
  • Iran is ramping up trade with China via rail to blunt the impact of a US blockade of its ports. The number of cargo trains going from Xi’an to Tehran has risen to one every three or four days from around one per week before the conflict BBG
  • US prosecutors suspect a Thai AI company of helping smuggle Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers, people familiar said. BBG
  • The White House has invited a scaled-back CEO delegation to accompany President Donald Trump to Beijing next week, reflecting divisions in the administration on economic policy toward China and ‌limited expectations for the summit. RTRS
  • Sir Keir Starmer has refused to quit after a disastrous night for Labour at the polls, insisting: “I’m not going to walk away . . . and plunge the country into chaos.” With the first results in, Labour is heading for the worst local election results by any party this century. FT
  • A federal trade court ruled that President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose new global tariffs after a previous set of levies was struck down by the Supreme Court in February. The decision on Thursday from the Court of International Trade invalidated Trump’s attempt to impose a new 10% tariff on goods from virtually every nation by invoking authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act. WSJ
  • Big Tech’s record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America’s largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade. The combined free cash flow of the four “hyperscalers” — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta — is expected to fall to roughly $4bn in the third quarter, according to Wall Street’s forecasts, down from an average of $45bn in each quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago. FT
  • Anthropic is weighing raising tens of billions of dollars this summer to fund a vast expansion in computing capacity, in a move that would catapult it past rival OpenAI to a valuation of almost $1tn. FT
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions during the night and shows no attempt to hold the cease fire.
  • US VP Vance expressed concern to tech CEOs over new AI models which can autonomously find software vulnerabilities. The White House is considering an executive order to create a formal oversight process for advanced AI models and has asked Anthropic to limit access to Mythos for organisations managing critical digital infrastructure: WSJ
  • Increased hyperscaler capex has come at the expense of buybacks, which fell by 64% year/year for the group during 1Q. The hyperscalers now allocate 20% of total spending to buybacks and dividends compared with an average of 34% from 2017-2022. We expect minimal hyperscaler buyback growth through 2027. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler capex amounting to 100% of cash flows from operations this year, which in turn leaves little room to return cash to shareholders without a sharp deceleration in capex growth, a large drawdown of cash balances, or a major increase in debt. Some of the buyback headwind from the hyperscalers will likely be offset by increased buyback activity among the beneficiaries of that capex, such as semiconductor firms: Goldman Sachs

Iran Latest: Reports surrounding a potential deal:

  • Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is expected to formally respond on Friday, according to CCTV citing Pakistani sources.
  • Any agreement with Iran would be bad for Israel, even if it includes an agreement to eliminate enriched uranium, Israeli press reported citing an official.
  • Iran and the US are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal, NYT reported. Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. The talks over a short-term agreement are continuing, the officials said, with negotiators trading proposals over how to describe the framework for a potential permanent deal. The three Iranian officials said a key obstacle was the US demand for commitments in advance on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
  • "A diplomatic source told Al Arabiya: Ensuring the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.", Al Arabiya reports.

Iran Latest: Commentary following the US-Iran strikes:

  • Iran's Top Joint Military Command said US violated the ceasefire by targeting Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz; Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack.
  • US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians; Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations. On energy, said we do not need to export curbs on oil and fuel.
  • US President Trump posted that there was no damage done to the three US destroyers that came under fire; states that Iran is led by lunatics and that the US will knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
  • US President Trump tells ABC that the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a 'love tap' and the ceasefire continues to be in effect.
  • US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes on Iranian military facilities; Iranian attacks were unprovoked but no US assets were hit; do not seek escalation.
  • The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
  • Saudi Arabia has not permitted the use of its airspace to support offensive military operations, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
  • There is a high state of alert in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah following the assassination of the Radwan Force Commander, Israeli Channel 12 reported citing sources.
  • Saudi Arabia has imposed restrictions on some aspects of US activity related to military operations in the region due to fears of possible Iranian attacks without direct US support or response, ISNA reported citing a i24 sources report.

Iran Latest: Reports of overnight strikes:

  • "US military attacked Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, an American official told me. The American official claimed that the attacks do not constitute a renewal of the war with Iran", Axios' Ravid posted.
  • A massive fire at the site of Iran's attacks last night; large fire previously detected in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam province, has moved; another big fire has been detected 30km west of Lark Island, Tasnim reported.
  • UAE announces that air defence systems are responding to a missile threat.
  • Hearing explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ISNA reported.
  • Reactivation of air defence in western areas of Tehran, Mehr News reported.
  • Several explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, IRIB News reported.
  • Explosion was heard in Abu Dhabi, Fars News reported citing Arab sources.
  • Three American destroyers were attacked by the Iranian Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim sources say.
  • An explosion was heard in Minab, SNN reported.
  • Further explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Mehr news reported.
  • Air defences have been activated in West Tehran, Mehr News reported.
  • Air defences shot down two hostile drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, Mehr News reported.
  • Explosions heard in Qeshm due to the confrontation of defences with small birds, ISNA reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the red as geopolitical tensions rose, with the US Military and the Iranian Navy exchanging fire. Despite US President Trump announcing that the ceasefire remains in place, bourses failed to see any positivity. ASX 200 opened on the softer side and extended lower, nearly wiping out the gains seen in the past 2 sessions. Real estate and Financials weighed on the index, with Macquarie being dragged down despite reporting FY earnings that beat estimates. Nikkei 225 pulled back from the ATH formed in Thursday’s session amid the negative risk tone. SoftBank has dragged the Nikkei lower after ARM tumbled on smartphone market weakness and AI chip supply concerns. Sony reported FY25/26 earnings, with operating income missing estimates, however announced a JPY 500bln share buyback programme. KOSPI slipped, as investors profit-take following the recent strength in the index, primarily driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the broader risk-off tone, as Shanghai Comp. outperformed its Asia-Pac peers with only modest losses.

Top Asian News

  • Japan intervened in the FX market during the May holidays, according to sources.
  • Singapore is to implement new curbs on executive condos, making them fully privatised after 15 years, CNA reported.
  • China's Finance Ministry conducts issuance of CNY 45.8bln to support the development of pre-school education, CCTV reported.
  • Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.20 (Prev. 53.0).

European bourses (STOXX -0.7%) are almost entirely in the red, with sentiment today pressured by recent flare-ups between US-Iran, whereby US struck Iranian ports which led to retaliatory attempts from the Iranian side. Though, indices are attempting to clamber off lows, with markets focusing on President Trump downplaying the attacks, calling them nothing but a “love tap”, noting that the ceasefire remains in place. European sectors are entirely in the red, display a market fearful of the current geopolitical environment; with cyclical sectors (Travel & Leisure/Consumer Products) residing at the foot of the list, whilst Energy is amongst the top performers. As for key movers this morning: Commerzbank (-0.5%, in-line metrics, raised targets and plans to cut 3k jobs), IAG (-2.7%, strong metrics but cut FY26 capacity outlook; sees strong demand), Intertek (-3%, rejects EQT’s GBP 9bln offer) US equity futures are broadly modestly firmer this morning, in contrast to the downbeat mood in Europe. In terms of key pre-market movers: CoreWeave (-6.6%, Q1 profit miss, Q2 revenue guidance missed expectations, and it raised capex forecasts), Gilead (-0.8%, mixed guidance, despite beating Q1 sales expectations).

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer said he will not be walking away and will be PM into the next general election.
  • UK PM Starmer said results do not weaken his resolve, and takes responsibility for outcome.
  • Labour may end up losing less than 1500 council seats in England, which may come as some relief for No.10, Journalist Schofield writes citing a poll guru.
  • Reform UK Leader Farage said his party is so far exceeding his election results predictions.
  • UK's Milliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, via Times. The sources said Miliband made the suggestion during a private meeting with the prime minister about a fortnight ago.

FX

  • DXY is on a softer footing after gaining in the prior session as geopolitics heated up. To recap. US and Iran had a brief skirmish, although the US later downplayed it and suggested the ceasefire is not broken, whilst Iran said the US broke the ceasefire, but said the situation around the islands has gone back to normal, although commentary from Iran has been somewhat sparse vs the US. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for further geopolitical update, and then the US jobs report (full preview available in the Research Suite) and with a few central bankers on the docket, including Fed's Cook, Waller, Goolsbee and Bowman. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 97.90-98.27 range.
  • GBP benefits from a softer USD and digests the initial results from the Local Election. The initial readout from the UK local elections is not as bad as some feared for Labour, potentially providing limited/temporary respite to PM Starmer. Reminder, numerous key councils are yet to report. GBP/USD towards the top end of a 1.3543-1.3622 range.
  • EUR/USD is firmer and trades towards the upper end of a 1.1721-1.17736 range, underpinned by the softer Buck. In trade, President Trump said the EU had promised to deliver its side of the deal and cut tariffs to zero, adding the bloc has until July 4th or tariffs would immediately rise to higher levels.
  • JPY is flat intraday vs the USD in a narrow 156.63-156.99 band following another volatile week, although the pair remains under its 100 DMA at 157.33. The pair consolidates in a tight range just shy of the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calmed, with Japanese markets looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
  • Antipodeans post modest gains amid high-beta properties, a rebound in commodities, although gains are capped by the cautious tone across markets awaiting clarity on the US-Iran situation.

Fixed Income

  • USTs began the European day near-enough flat. Since, as energy wanes a touch, the benchmark has lifted more convincingly into the green. However, the current 110-22 high is someway shy of Thursday's 111-03+ peak. For the US, the day is dominated by NFP, but of course, geopolitics remains in focus and we await an update on yesterday's activity which, according to the US, did not violate the ceasefire.
  • Bunds spent the morning lower by around 20 ticks, as the residual global energy bid, Dutch TTF gains and the potential for elevated US tariffs from July kept yields modestly elevated. However, as above, the magnitude of this has waned across the morning thus far, with around half of that downside trimming, to a 125.72 high. But, as with USTs, still someway shy of Thursday's 126.14 best.
  • Gilts initially opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to a 87.21 low, down by 33 ticks at most but just above Thursday's 87.13 base and by extension comfortably clear of 86.52 and then 85.76 from earlier in the week. Initial pressure in reaction to the late-Thursday geopolitical escalation, and as the UK local elections show a shift from Labour to Reform, alongside marked Conservative losses and a significant but somewhat less-than-expected move toward the Green Party (though, we await key London areas for more data). Note, we still have a lot of the count to go, with key areas reporting from 12:30BST onward; however, the scale of Labour losses is not as bad as feared and will likely provide PM Starmer with some respite.
  • A point which, alongside Starmer confirming he will not resign and intends to lead the UK into the next general election, has allowed Gilts to move into the green and actually outperform peers with gains of nearly 40 ticks to a new WTD high of 87.89. Strength spurred by the market's preference for stability. However, we await the Manchester numbers around 12:30BST which could be a momentum for Burnham to set out his case. Followed by key councils from 16:00BST onward, including Starmer's own Camden council around 18:00BST, in addition to the Senedd and Holyrood. As such, the modest Gilt strength we are seeing and the easing of UK yields may yet prove fleeting in the days/weeks ahead.
  • Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 1.25% 2032 AGBs: b/c 4.01x, average yield 4.7406%.

Commodities

  • In geopolitics, US and Iranian forces exchanged major attacks near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran allegedly targeted three US Navy destroyers with missiles, drones, and fast boats; the US said it intercepted all threats and retaliated with strikes on Iranian military sites. The US military carried out strikes in Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said it was not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire. The UAE was simultaneously hit by renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, most were intercepted by air defences, though several injuries and disruptions were reported. Despite the escalation, President Trump said the April ceasefire still stands, while warning that failure to reach a broader deal with Iran could lead to much heavier bombing and further regional instability. Meanwhile, Iran’s Press TV said conditions on Iranian islands and coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz had returned to normal. Seemingly the lack of continued attacks seen as "more positive than feared", with energy initially gapping higher at the resumption of trade before gradually waning as attacks stopped.
  • WTI and Brent futures waned from overnight highs, and now post incremental losses. WTI currently trades at the lower end of a USD 93.82-98.64/bbl range, with Brent hovering around USD 99.60/bbl, within a USD 99.55-102.92/bbl range.
  • Dutch TTF has fallen back towards EUR 44/MWh from earlier prices north of EUR 45/MWh. Traders are on the lookout for clarity from the Iranian side on whether the ceasefire still stands and whether diplomacy will continue.
  • Spot gold is firmer as the DXY eases with oil. The bullion trades towards the top end of USD 4,673-4,734.90/oz parameters, off yesterday's USD 4,775/oz. Gold also sees underlying support on renewed buying interest after the PBoC’s purchases, with China raising gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, adding 260k ounces.
  • Base metals are mostly firmer and benefit from the broader losses in the USD amid a lack of further US-Iran escalation following the initial skirmish. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of USD 13,273.60-13,616.70/t.
  • China to raise retail diesel and gasoline prices by CNY 310/Mt and CNY 320/Mt respectively from May 9th; part of regular price review, CCTV reported.
  • Freeport Indonesia (FCX) has pushed back the full restart of its Grasberg copper mine by a year.
  • Taiwan is reportedly finalising a 25-year US LNG deal valued at USD 15bln with Cheniere Energy (LNG).
  • Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery (630k BPD) has returned to normal operations, according to reported.

Trade/Tariffs

  • China and US are in communication on US President Trump's visit, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
  • US reportedly suspects that a Thai firm smuggled chips to Alibaba (BABA) , Bloomberg reported.
  • The US and South Africa have started preliminary discussions over potential resources deals including bilateral investments in mining, energy and infrastructure, FT reported citing sources.
  • The US Trade Court has ruled against President Trump's 10% global tariffs.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 65k, prior 178k
  • 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 2.5k, prior 15k
  • 8:30 am: United States Apr Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
  • 10:00 am: United States May P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 49.5, prior 49.8
  • 10:00 am: United States Mar F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 11:05 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC
  • 2:20 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
  • 7:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee on Panel

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have slipped back thanks to questions about whether the US-Iran ceasefire is holding. Indeed, there’s been a clear escalation in the last few hours, with the US striking targets in Iran after they fired on three US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. And in turn, Trump posted that “we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” So Brent crude is back up +1.58% this morning to $101.64/bbl, having been beneath $100/bbl for a good chunk of yesterday’s session. However, markets still aren’t pricing in the worst-case scenario, as Trump told ABC News that “the ceasefire is going. It’s in effect”, referring to the US strikes as a “love tap”.

Questions around the ceasefire have already had a market impact in Asia overnight, where all the major equity indices have lost ground. That includes the Nikkei (-0.69%), the KOSPI (-0.73%), Hang Seng (-1.17%), CSI 300 (-0.90%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%). Moreover, European equity futures are down, with those on the FTSE 100 (-0.70%) and the DAX (-0.87%) both lower, although US futures have picked up a bit after yesterday’s losses, with S&P 500 futures up +0.21%.

Prior to all that, Brent crude (-1.19%) had posted a modest decline yesterday to $100.06/bbl, but that was a decent recovery from the intra-day lows of $96/bbl given there were no obvious signs of progress towards a deal. Moreover, as reports of explosions in Iran came through, that pushed oil prices even higher, so whilst Brent crude spent much of the day beneath $100/bbl, it was just above that mark by the close.
These more negative headlines weighed on broader risk sentiment, leading the S&P 500 (-0.38%) to pull back from its record high. And on top of the geopolitical headlines, we also had a hawkish batch of US data, with numbers on the labour market and inflation both surprising on the upside. For instance, the NY Fed’s latest survey showed 1yr inflation expectations up to 3.64% in April (vs. 3.5% expected), which is the highest since September 2023. So that raised expectations about a more hawkish response from the Fed. And that came on top of strong labour market data, with the weekly initial jobless claims at 200k in the week ending May 2 (vs. 205k expected), which took the 4-week moving average down to a two-year low of 203.25k.

That hawkish newsflow continued with various Fed speakers. In particular, Boston Fed President Collins (a non-voter this year) said she agreed with the hawkish dissenters who didn’t want to include the easing bias in the statement. So that added to the sense there was wider scepticism around further rate cuts. We also heard from two of the hawkish dissenters. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said her own outlook was that “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.” And Minneapolis President Kashkari said that “if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time, it may well be that the next move might need to be up in interest rates.” So investors priced in a more hawkish outlook, with markets pricing a 38% chance of a rate hike by March 2027 at the close, up from 21% the previous day. And in turn, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.6bps) up to 3.91%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.8bps) rose to 4.39%.

This backdrop meant it was a tough one for equities as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) falling back from its Wednesday record. Indeed, the losses would have been even bigger were it not for the Mag 7 (+0.71%) reaching another record. So the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.67%) saw its largest decline in almost four weeks, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.63%) struggled even more. And over in Europe, there were also broad declines, with the STOXX 600 (-1.10%) posting its biggest decline in over a month, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.02%), the CAC 40 (-1.17%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.55%).

Looking forward, we’ll get more data today with the US jobs report for April. That’s an important one, as Fed pricing has already shifted in a hawkish direction given the energy shock, and last month’s payrolls were at a 15-month high of +178k. This time round, our US economists are looking for payrolls to come in at +50k, which would actually mark the first back-to-back positive reading since May last year. Meanwhile, they see the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. 

Elsewhere today, the UK will be in focus, as we’ve just started to get the results from the local elections overnight. We’ve only got a few results so far, but the governing Labour Party have suffered heavy losses in the seats they were defending, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has seen major gains. Today, it’ll be important to watch what Labour MPs and cabinet ministers are saying, as gilt markets are focused on whether PM Keir Starmer will remain in post following the results. That’s because of expectations that a new Labour leader might ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance, so when Starmer’s position has come into question, that’s coincided with selloffs for gilts.

Before all that, sovereign bonds were fairly steady across Europe yesterday, with the 10yr bund yield (+0.1bps) remaining at 3.00%. There had been more of a rally earlier in the session, but that unwound as oil prices moved higher again, with yields tracking those moves. So yields on 10yr gilts (+0.9bps) and OATs (+0.4bps) also saw a modest increase, although those on BTPs (-0.6bps) came down slightly. Otherwise, investor expectations of an ECB rate hike in June were also steady yesterday, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a hike by the close, up from 79% on Wednesday.

Finally, there were a couple of noteworthy headlines on US trade yesterday. First, the 10% global tariff currently in place was found to be unlawful by the US Court of International Trade. That’s the one the administration had imposed under the Trade Act of 1974, after the Supreme Court ruled against the previous IEEPA tariffs earlier this year. But for now, at least, the Court of International Trade only blocked them from enforcing it against the companies that sued and Washington State. The second story was that Trump set a deadline of July 4 for the EU to “deliver their side of the Deal”, or tariffs would be raised.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US jobs report for April, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May, and German industrial production for March. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, the Fed’s Cook, Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoE Deputy Governor Breeden.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:23
Tyler Durden

Gilt Yields Fall As Starmer Vows To Stay On After Farage's Reform UK Storms To Historic Gains In 'Midterms'

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Gilt Yields Fall As Starmer Vows To Stay On After Farage's Reform UK Storms To Historic Gains In 'Midterms'

Update (0800ET): After hitting 28-year highs earlier in the week, UK gilt yields are lower as UK PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK racking up sweeping gains over Britain’s governing party.

Cable is also stronger against the dollar...

The Polymarket prediction platform showed punters paring bets on a Starmer departure this year, giving a 57% chance of the premier exiting by Dec. 31, down from 70% on Thursday.

UK's Milliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, via Times.

The sources said Miliband made the suggestion during a private meeting with the prime minister about a fortnight ago.

But, for now, Starmer is staying:

“These are really tough results — I’m not going to sugarcoat it,” Starmer told broadcasters on Friday, while resolving to stay on as prime minister until the next election.

“The voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. I was elected to meet those challenges, and I’m not going to walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos.”

So far, markets have responded positively suggesting investors think the more pessimistic predictions about the outcome will probably be avoided.

Still, Bloomberg economist Dan Hanson warns that, with plenty more results to come in, the final verdict is uncertain, as is the likely reaction from Labour MPs.

Here's how to judge the results:

The risk for the economic outlook is that the local elections spark a chain of events that eventually sees Prime Minister Keir Starmer replaced by a leader who favors looser fiscal policy.

With the economy in the midst of a fresh inflationary shock and the public finances stretched, a promise of higher spending would put a new leader on a collision course with the gilt market.

“We’re proving in a big way, we can win in areas that Labour have dominated, frankly, since the end of World War I,” Farage told journalists in London on Friday.

“You’re witnessing an historic shift in British politics. This is now the most national of all parties. We’re competitive in the north of Scotland. We were competitive in Cornwall in the county elections last year. We’re competitive in every part of the country, and we’re here to stay.”

*  *  *

Reform UK is on track for historic gains in the 2026 UK local elections - seizing hundreds of seats in the early counts while Labour and the Conservatives suffer heavy defeats across England. 

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, celebrated huge gains in England’s local elections on May 1 (Press Association via AP Images)

With results from 39 of 136 councils declared overnight (roughly 28% of the vote counted), Reform UK has already gained over 300 seats - a remarkable surge for a party that had almost no local presence just a few years ago.

Labour has lost 220 seats, the Conservatives 107, while the Liberal Democrats gained 35 and the Greens 22.

//--> //--> //--> Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Yes 99% · No 1%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Labour on the Brink in Traditional Strongholds

The scale of Labour’s collapse is stark. In areas where the party was defending seats, it has retained only 23% so far. One senior Conservative commentator noted on X that Labour is “currently losing 84% of the seats they are defending.”

Labour has already lost control of at least five councils, including long-held northern strongholds. Tameside fell after 47 years of Labour rule. Heavy losses were also recorded in Halton, Hartlepool, Redditch and Tamworth, with Reform UK making major inroads in former Labour heartlands across the North and Midlands.

Birmingham on the Brink of a Reform Takeover?

Nowhere is the drama more intense than in Birmingham, where all 101 council seats are up for election. Pre-poll surveys had Reform UK as the largest party or very close to it, with some projections putting them on 47 seats - just short of an outright majority.

A widely shared post on X claimed Reform UK is “tipped to take control of Birmingham City Council in what could become one of the biggest political upsets in modern British politics.” Local issues including a prolonged bin strike and council finances have dominated the campaign. Results from Britain’s second city are expected later today.

Across the declared councils, Reform UK is winning approximately 48% of the seats contested so far. Many authorities are heading for no overall control, creating a fragmented political map.

The Liberal Democrats enjoyed a standout result in Richmond upon Thames, taking every seat. The Greens also made solid gains.

In Scotland, counting for the Scottish Parliament election begins this morning, with first results expected around lunchtime. Polls had suggested the SNP would fall short of a majority while Reform UK was on course for a significant breakthrough. Wales is also counting today.

Political Earthquake for Starmer

These are the first major elections since Labour’s 2024 landslide victory and represent a serious test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has hailed the results as evidence of a “historic change in British politics.”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch faces questions about her party’s ability to stem the flow of votes to Reform on the right.

This is a developing story. More councils - including several major metropolitan boroughs - will declare throughout Friday, with the full national picture expected by Saturday.

The last word goes to @higgyboson

CV.

Completely ruined a major 126 year old political party in less than 2 years.

Became the most hated UK Prime Minister in history. 

Unilaterally gave away billions of £'s of taxpayers money with no accountability required from the recipients. 

Wrecked the economy. 

Failed to control mass immigration, both legal and illegal.

Failed to address the problem of muslim rape gangs.

Increased welfare payments to a point where benefits now cost more than the entire income tax take.

Allowed weekly pro-Palestinian hate marches on our streets.

Consistently referred to people with concerns about the proliferation of migrant violence as "Far Right".

Promoted one of his friends to high office despite knowing he was a buddy of one of the most prolific paedophiles on the planet.

Consistently worked to reverse the result of the biggest democratic vote in British history by stealth.

Placed tax dodgers, fraudsters and CV fantasists in Ministerial posts.

Invited a known islamist terrorist to No.10 while simultaneously banning foreign commentators from the UK for merely reporting on the border fiasco.

Took two weeks to find a Royal Navy ship that actually worked.

Introduced legislation that will destroy the private rental market and create hundreds of thousands of homeless families.

Promised to build 1.5 million homes in five years despite everyone telling him it would be impossible. 

Failed to help motorists and hauliers after the rise in the price of fuel caused by the war in Iran.

Continues to allow Ed Milliband to wreck the UK's energy industry with his insane Net Zero policies.

Raised the minimum wage and employers National Insurance contributions leading to thousands of job losses and businesses folding.

Introduced VAT to private school fees leading to many excellent seats of learning closing their doors.

Consistently refused to answer questions during the session in the parliamentary week set aside for this specific purpose. 

Consistently failed to accept responsibility for any wrong doing, preferring to sack others instead.

Alienated "working people" while claiming to be on their side.

And the lies. The constant lies.

Failure. Failure. And more Failure.

Time to go.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:00
Tyler Durden

Megadrought: We Just Experienced The Driest First Three Months Of A Year In US History

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Megadrought: We Just Experienced The Driest First Three Months Of A Year In US History

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

January, February and March were insanely dry. In fact, in all of U.S. history conditions have never been so dry during the first three months of the year. Just think about that for a moment. Not even during the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s were conditions this dry. Many were hoping that 2026 would be the year when our multi-year drought would finally break. Needless to say, that hasn’t happened. Scientists are telling us that the southwestern U.S. is in the midst of the worst multi-year drought in at least 1,200 years. We really are experiencing a “megadrought”, and this is something that experts such as Steve Quayle and Dane Wigington have been talking about for a long time. Unfortunately, it appears that our seemingly endless “megadrought” has gone to an entirely new level in 2026.

If it simply doesn’t rain, there is not much that farmers and ranchers can do.

Right now approximately 63 percent of the continental United States is experiencing at least some level of drought, and the first quarter of this year was one for the record books…

Winter wheat is dying in Kansas fields that should be green by now. Ranchers in New Mexico are selling cattle they cannot afford to feed. Reservoir levels along the Colorado River system are dropping weeks ahead of the season when mountain snowmelt is supposed to refill them. Across roughly 63% of the contiguous United States, drought rated moderate to exceptional on the federal scale has taken hold, and the first three months of 2026 were the driest the nation has recorded in 131 years of continuous measurement.

This isn’t just a crisis.

This is catastrophic.

It appears that the winter wheat crop in the U.S. is going to be a disaster.

At this stage, more than 81 percent of the Southern Plains is experiencing drought…

Heading into the harvesting season for the key winter wheat crop, much of the western side of the U.S. Plains are locked in drought. Over 81% of Southern Plains is experiencing some form of drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Nearly 20% of the region is experiencing either “extreme” or “exceptional” drought.

Only 30% of U.S. winter wheat is in either good or excellent condition as of the start of this week, according to the most recent weekly Crop Progress report from the Department of Agriculture. By comparison, 49% of the crop was good-or-excellent at this point last year.

The situation is particularly dire in the state of Oklahoma.

Last year, the state produced 101.1 million bushels of red winter wheat.

Thanks to the drought, it is being projected that the state will produce less than half of that total this year…

At the 2026 Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association meeting, crop scouts, extension specialists, and grain elevator representatives painted a sobering picture of this year’s hard red winter wheat crop. Their estimates say the 2026 crop is roughly half the size of the previous two years, with production projected at 48.9 million bushels compared to 101.1 million bushels in 2025. The outlook is based on an average yield of 23.93 bushels per acre across an expected 2.043 million harvested acres, highlighting the significant downturn facing Oklahoma wheat producers.

When there is a lot less wheat to go around, prices will go up.

It is simply a matter of supply and demand.

One farmer that grows winter wheat in Kansas is saying that his farm has only had a quarter of an inch of precipitation since last fall…

Southwest Kansas farmer Gary Millershaski says his area has only received a quarter-of-an-inch of precipitation since last fall. “For us to get a 30-bushel crop, you’ve really got to be optimistic and believe in prayer. That’s a fact.”

He has done everything right, but the sky has been silent.

What is he supposed to do?

So far in 2026, Chicago wheat futures are up about 30 percent…

Chicago wheat futures have gained nearly 30% since the start of the year — the biggest gain among row crop futures — due to the combination of U.S. drought, global fertilizer shortages and a looming El Niño.

If this crisis in the Middle East is not resolved, this will only be just the beginning.

Once upon a time, the U.S. was absolutely swimming in wheat, but now we are moving into a time when it will be considered a “luxury grain”.

Of course beef is already considered to be a “luxury meat”.

When I was growing up, my mother would feed us beef constantly because it was so inexpensive.

But now beef prices have skyrocketed, and some of the prices that we are seeing at the meat counters in our grocery stores are absolutely absurd…

I never thought that I would see beef prices get this high.

But this is the reality that we are living in now.

And it appears that beef prices will continue to remain elevated because the size of the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest that it has been since 1951…

The US cattle herd remained the smallest since 1951 at the start of the year, in the latest signal that consumer beef prices will remain near records.

There were about 86.2 million cattle and calves in the US as of Jan. 1, the US Department of Agriculture said in a Friday report. The tally is nearly unchanged from 2025, providing no relief to the ongoing cattle shortage.

The lack of improvement comes as ranchers keep selling animals to slaughter amid high beef demand, rather than retaining the animals to grow their herds. The downsizing — which began years prior when ranchers shrunk their herds due to high production costs and droughts — has sent consumer beef prices to all-time highs.

It is really hard to feed cattle when conditions are bone dry.

Sadly, they could get even drier in the months ahead…

Meanwhile, there’s a 62% chance of the world’s climate shifting from neutral to El Niño between June and August, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecast. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that this El Niño could be the strongest on record, with peak intensity hitting in October.

El Niño typically results in hot and dry weather in many growing areas, including the U.S. Corn Belt and in Australia. With fertilizer supplies thin, this may further compound production losses for world wheat.

We are being told that we could soon be experiencing a “super El Niño”, and meteorologist Ryan Maue is warning that the long-term forecast for the second half of this year is “off the charts”…

I have been repeatedly warning my readers that global weather patterns are going nuts, and I was not exaggerating one bit.

We really are facing a historic long-term crisis with no end in sight.

As I discussed last week, for the upcoming season U.S. farmers are planting the fewest acres of wheat that we have seen since records began in 1919.

In 1919, there were 104 million people living in the United States.

Today, there are 341 million people living in the United States.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that we have a major problem on our hands.

Many of us have been warning about this crisis for years, and now we really have reached a breaking point.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 07:45
Tyler Durden

US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor - Trump Says Warships Came Under Fire By 'Lunatics'

Zero Rss
1 week ago
US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor - Trump Says Warships Came Under Fire By 'Lunatics' Summary
  • US military attacks Iran locations on southern coast, and allegations of UAE involvement; Explosions rock Abu Dhabi. CENTCOM says intercepted Iranian counterattacks.

  • Iran says US violated ceasefire after Centcom targeted Iranian facilities responsible for attacks; US says ceasefire not violated despite striking Iranian oil tanker and targets in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.

  • The Trump admin mulls restarting operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support as early as this week after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US access to their bases and airspaces

  • Iran national security commission 'red line': No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country's assets are non-negotiable red lines.

  • French nuclear-powered carrier steams through Suez Canal in support mission as Europe seeks diplomatic influence over Hormuz outcome.

  • First Chinese tanker reportedly attacked: shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it "psychologically very hard to accept."

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 36% · No 65%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump: US Warships Came 'Under Fire' By 'Lunatics'

Iran says US violated ceasefire as explosions are reported in the UAE (via Newsquawk)

IRAN SAYS US VIOLATED CEASEFIRE

Iran’s Top Joint Military Command says:

  • The US violated the ceasefire,
  • The US targeted an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz,
  • Iran will respond “powerfully and without hesitation.”

US SOURCE SAID CEASEFIRE NOT VIOLATED

  • US officials, according to Axios/Fox reporting, say:
  • US strikes were carried out in Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas,
  • The strikes do not mean the war has restarted,
  • The ceasefire is not over.

ATTACKS

  • Iranian media and officials also claimed:
  • Three American destroyers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz,
  • Iranian missile fire forced enemy units to retreat after suffering damage.

These claims are unverified.

  • Air defences were activated multiple times around:
  • Tehran
  • Bandar Abbas
  • Qeshm

REGIONAL TARGETS

  • Iran is accusing the US and “some regional nations” of striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz area.
  • Iranian media outlets reported explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai:
  • ISNA: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
  • IRIB/Fars: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi.
  • There is no confirmation yet on cause, damage, or responsibility.

Oil jumps on the developments:

CENTCOM Forces Intercept Iran Counterstrikes

CENTCOM confirms attack on Iran, and intercept of Iranian retaliation effort: "U.S. forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.

Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes. CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces."

Confirmation of New US Military Attack

Fox News confirming a nighttime US miliary attack on Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, however, with US officials seeking to downplay that this marks a restart of the war and bombing campaign. This comes via Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin:

A senior US official tells me that it was a US military strike on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas moments ago but added this is NOT a restarting of the war or end to the ceasefire.

The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports comes two days after Iran fired 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at UAE Fujairah Port, eliciting anger from Gulf countries after top Pentagon leaders said Tuesday that the Iranian strikes did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, calling it low level attacks that didn’t rise to that level.

There have been allegations of UAE involvement. Since the initial explosions, more follow up blasts have been reported via state media, along with some emerging images:

  • US CONDUCTED STRIKES THURS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AREA: AXIOS
  • IRAN CLAIMS IT FIRED MISSILES AT THREE US DESTORYERS: TASNIM

Footage released by @IliaHashemicom purported to show air defence activity over Tehran tonight https://t.co/gv0FwwhiWN pic.twitter.com/WMRjne09jR

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) May 7, 2026

Further emerging images:

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇦🇪 The explosion reports near the UAE are from U.S. warships being targeted, approximately 52km off the coast.

Developing. https://t.co/8c5x7wsosf

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 7, 2026

Iranian military statement: "Criminal and aggressive America and its supporting countries should know, Iran will respond decisively to any aggression."

Explosions, Possible Hostile Action Reported on Coast

During the night hours in Iran, state media has been issuing contradictory reports of mystery explosions along the Hormuz corridor. It's as yet unclear what's happening, but reports say a pier was struck near Bandar Abbas, with other southern areas witnessing possible drone activity, and return anti-air fire. There's little that's confirmable at this early point. Via DropSite:

  • Iran’s IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency reports that some Iranian sources are alleging “hostile action” by the UAE at Bahman Qeshm Dock near Bandar Abbas, though no official confirmation has been issued.
  • Some reports claimed air defenses responded to two drones after multiple explosions were heard in the Bandar Abbas area.
  • Other sources alleged the UAE, described by Tasnim as acting “as a tool of the Zionist regime,” was behind the incident at the dock.
  • Tasnim emphasized the claims remain unconfirmed
  • Iran's Mehr says air defenses shot down two 'hostile' drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.

💢BREAKING: Iranian State Media Reports Commercial Pier Struck Near Bandar Abbas

Iranian IRGC-affiliated outlet Fars News Agency reported Thursday that parts of the Bahman Qeshm pier, a commercial and passenger port on the eastern side of Qeshm Island at the entrance to the… pic.twitter.com/nxgmpDvvk4

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 7, 2026

Possible US military raid incident?...

Iranian forces fired missiles at U.S. military units “that intended to seize an Iranian oil tanker” in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian State TV. https://t.co/UwF4jVUoph

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) May 7, 2026 Trump Reportedly Mulling 'Project Freedom' Restart After Gulf States Lift Curbs On Military Access

The S&P 500 fell to session lows as oil spiked after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is looking to restart Project Freedom as early as this week and that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted curbs on airspace access.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the U.S. military’s use of their bases and airspace imposed after the start of the American operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. and Saudi officials, easing a hurdle that had tripped up President Trump’s effort to move ships through the vital waterway.

The Trump administration is now looking to restart the operation to guide commercial ships with naval and air support that it had paused after 36 hours this week, U.S. officials said.

It isn’t clear when that could happen though Pentagon officials gave a timeline of as early as this week.

The U.S. operation to force open the strait relied on an enormous fleet of aircraft to protect commercial ships from Iranian missiles and drones, making Saudi and Kuwaiti bases and airspace critical to its execution.

The kneejerk reaction was higher oil prices...

...and the odds of a peace deal by the end of next week lower...

Trump had suspended the effort, called Project Freedom, on Tuesday evening, after a phone call with the kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which the de facto Saudi leader conveyed his concerns and advised the president of the decision about base and airspace restrictions, the Saudi officials said. The president tried to get the Gulf leader to back down, they said.

Iran Reiterates Uranium 'Red Line' - Pushes Oil Up

While this is nothing 'new' - the timing is key, given the US is still awaiting Tehran's response to the latest peace deal proposal, at a moment reports say the President Trump wants to wrap this up.

Iran Secretary of the National Security Commission of the Parliament told Nour News: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country's assets are non-negotiable red lines. Further he said that "Trump's claim about the withdrawal of 400 kilograms of uranium from Iran is a "political bluff and a pure lie." No uranium has left the country."

The return of such firm rhetoric, and the likelihood that this signals a rejection of current Washington demands, sent oil climbing back up...

Oil Slides on Reports of 'Breakthrough' Coming for Stuck Ships

A very optimistic but unconfirmed early Thursday report: Sentiment in early morning trade was lifted after Al Arabiya reported that "the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait".

"The American naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be lifted after Washington and Tehran reportedly reached an agreement in this regard," the Saudi media report says. "The agreement between both the sides on lifting the naval blockade was reached upon on Thursday (may 7) after US agreed for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz."

Oil has been sliding through the morning...

And here's a huge but from Politico:

President Donald Trump’s constant belittling of Iranian leaders is alarming some Arab and U.S. officials familiar with the Middle East who worry that such insults could prove a major obstacle to truly ending a war that has strained the world economy. At the core of their concern is whether Trump is willing to show Tehran’s Islamist leaders enough respect to let them claim some level of victory, even if they agree to U.S. demands that leave them militarily weaker.

“He badly wants this to end,” a senior Gulf Arab official familiar with the peace talks said of Trump. “But the Iranians are so far refusing to give him what he needs to save face and leave. And he does not seem to understand that they need to save face, too.”

French Nuclear-Powered Carrier to Enter Red Sea, Gulf of Aden

France and Britain could be poised to very belatedly join the US military in Middle East regional waters, according to movements of warships as well as fresh statements. Egypt and France on Wednesday oversaw the transit of the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle through the Suez Canal as part of a southbound convoy, the Suez Canal Authority announced.

The French Ministry of the Armed Forces has announced the nuclear-powered carrier is deploying to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as part of a multinational effort to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a fresh statement. So it's clear the convoy will remain largely in a background support role when compared to the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman region. Paris and London have also made clear their ships would only directly join Persian Gulf operations only once the war ended.

(Reuters) - Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met recently with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, state media reported on Thursday, offering a first public account of him meeting Khamenei after the latter suffered severe wounds at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) May 7, 2026

On a technical level, the White House has just this week sought to pronounce that Operation Epic Fury has ended, and Project Freedom has begun. It's unclear whether the European allies buy this designation, however. Marcon has sought to make clear that France is not a party to the conflict, but Europe is seeking a diplomatic voice at the table after spending the last two months largely on the sidelines.

Two Key Gulf Allies Reportedly Suspended Base, Airspace Access For US

President Trump abruptly halted plans to support commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia suspended US military access to its bases and airspace for the operation, two US officials told NBC. Kuwait is reported to have imposed similar restrictions in wake of being on the receiving end of Iranian missiles.

According to the officials, Trump caught Gulf allies off guard when he announced Project Freedom on Truth Social, triggering anger in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is said to have responded by informing Washington that US forces would not be permitted to operate aircraft from Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh or transit Saudi airspace in support of the mission. Other Gulf allies were also reportedly surprised by the development, with Drop Site News also reporting Kuwait has made a similar move to cut or restrict base access.

But here is how Trump framed the pause at the time in a Truth Social post: "Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally"... and he also said it was necessary "to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed." By the following day it became clear that the two sides were no closer to getting to the negotiating table, much less actually inking an agreement to end the war.

President Trump has laid out a clear choice for Iran: Reach a deal, or the bombing resumes. pic.twitter.com/isThSrLwo9

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) May 7, 2026

The White House is meanwhile denying the main content of the NBC report, with one official insisting that "regional allies were briefed in advance."

First Chinese Tanker Attacked Near Hormuz As Beijing Urges Waterway Reopened

There have certainly been escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz this week amid a wave of Iranian attacks on commercial ships after a U.S. military effort to escort merchant vessels through the maritime chokepoint. By midweek, tensions had simmered, and Iran is still reviewing a 14-point U.S. proposal to end the war, with Tehran expected to send its response to Pakistani mediators later today.

President Trump said talks with Iran have been "very good" and suggested a deal remains possible. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed the U.S. proposal is still under review. But when chaos erupted on the world's most critical waterway at the beginning of the week, a new report said that a large refined-products tanker owned by a Chinese shipowner was attacked off the UAE's Al Jeer port on Monday, according to Reuters.

Beijing-based business media outlet Caixin reported that the vessel's deck erupted in flames after the attack. The outlet noted the vessel was marked "CHINA OWNER & CREW." A shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it "psychologically very hard to accept."

Shortly after the Chinese tanker was attacked, it became clear why, two days later on Wednesday, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for the swift reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint. "The international community shares a common concern for the restoration of normal and safe passage of the strait," Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iran's Abbas Araghchi, according to an official Chinese statement. "China hopes that the parties concerned will respond to the strong appeal of the international community as soon as possible."

China's urgency to resolve the highly disrupted Hormuz chokepoint comes just over a week before President Trump flies to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping. The big question is whether China will cooperate with the U.S. to end the conflict and reopen the Strait, as much of the tanker flow through this critical waterway is destined for Asia, and the disruption has led to fuel shortages and soaring prices of crude oil and related products in the region.

"China likes to present itself as a great stabilizing force in the world, but imagine if they had a genuine diplomatic achievement, such as brokering the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as proof of that," Richard McGregor, senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, told Bloomberg. He noted that some in Beijing would advocate for using the moment to "squeeze some concessions out of the US" on issues such as Taiwan. The first Chinese tanker attacked in the U.S.-Iran conflict, as well as the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, might be the catalysts for the international community to pressure Iran into a peace deal with the U.S. Meanwhile, a French aircraft carrier is transiting through the southern part of the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea, preparing to restore Hormuz tanker flows.

More Regional Developments

via Newsquawk

  • Al Arabiya reported that "the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait", spurring pressure in the crude complex.
  • Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, according to CNN, citing a regional source.
  • US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, according to Axios, citing US officials.
  • Iran is expected to provide its reply to mediators on Thursday, CNN reported citing a regional source.
  • "Arabic sources: Reaching understandings regarding easing the siege in exchange for the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz ", Al Arabiya reported; "The coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait".
  • Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, "We do not talk about war and instead talk about dialogue and diplomacy. However, if any aggression similar to what we saw last year, we will respond; Pakistan will respond just as it did", Mallick posted.
  • Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said "We have not yet received a response from Iran regarding the US amendments", Al Jazeera reported.
  • "Pakistani source to Al Arabiya said Iran may hand over its response to the US proposal to the Pakistani mediator today", Al Arabiya.
  • "No arrangements for any direct meetings between the Iranians and the Americans so far.".
  • "Contacts with the Iranians are ongoing and there are no obstacles hindering continued".
  • "Discussions are ongoing regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and reaching understandings is still possible".
  • Pakistani Foreign Ministry said "We expect an urgent agreement between Iran and the United States", Al Araby reported.
  • "Israel was informed that Iran has agreed to transfer its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to a third country that remains unknown", Sky News Arabia reported citing Israeli Channel 12.
  • Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on US-Iran agreement, said "we would expect an agreement sooner rather than later", Pakistani journalist Mallick posted.
  • "We will welcome any settlement wherever that takes place, if it takes place in Islamabad, it would be an honour and privilege.”.
  • The proposed agreement between the US and Iran may limit the IDF's action in Lebanon, Israeli press reported citing an Israeli official.
  • US President Trump, on Iran, said it will all work out very quickly.
  • IDF said it has intercepted suspicious aerial target launched from Lebanon towards Israel following sirens that sounded in Manara, Margaliot and Kiryat Shmona.
  • Lebanon's PM Salam said it is not seeking normalisation with Israel and it is too early to discuss any possible meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu.
  • Iran has issued a message to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran's port is fully prepared to provide general maritime services and support to the vessels, IRNA reported.
  • US President Trump could turn to military action without an Iran agreement ahead of the China trip, Axios reported citing US officials.
  • US President Trump's reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after Saudi Arabia suspended the US's ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out Project Freedom, NBC reported citing US officials.
  • IRGC Navy Political Affairs Official said we will impose our control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any attack will be met with a plan beyond the enemy's calculations, Al Jazeera reported.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 07:00
Tyler Durden

"Thermal Event" Triggers Service Disruptions At Amazon AWS Cloud Hub In Northern Virginia

Zero Rss
1 week ago
"Thermal Event" Triggers Service Disruptions At Amazon AWS Cloud Hub In Northern Virginia

Amazon Web Services said that recovery efforts are still underway after a "loss of power during a thermal event" disrupted a Northern Virginia data center on Thursday evening.

"Mitigation efforts remain underway to resolve the impaired EC2 instances and degraded EBS volumes in a single Availability Zone (use1-az4) in the US-EAST-1 Region," AWS wrote on its Service Health page, indicating that its operational issue for "Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (N. Virginia)" remained "impacted" as of early Friday morning.

AWS shifted traffic away from the affected zone for most services and told customers to use other Availability Zones in US-EAST-1, noting that data centers in other zones were unaffected.

"The work to bring additional cooling system capacity online, which will enable us to recover the remaining affected infrastructure in a controlled and safe manner, is taking longer than we had initially anticipated," AWS stated.

The AWS disruption in Northern Virginia caused Coinbase's services to be affected overnight.

On May 7th Coinbase experienced service disruptions. Here’s a quick summary of what happened:

→ Around 8PM ET, Coinbase systems flagged high error rates across multiple services.
→ We traced these errors to amazon failures in Availability Zone (use1-az4) in the AWS US-EAST-1…

— Coinbase Support (@CoinbaseSupport) May 8, 2026

AWS did not provide details about what caused the "thermal event" at one of its data centers in Northern Virginia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 06:55
Tyler Durden

The World's Biggest Fusion Reactor Just Hit A Milestone

Zero Rss
1 week ago
The World's Biggest Fusion Reactor Just Hit A Milestone

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • The final components of ITER's central solenoid magnet -- a 59-foot, 3,000-tonne superconducting system 15 years in the making -- have arrived in France, clearing a major path toward first plasma.

  • ITER will never supply electricity to the grid; it exists purely as a research tool, and at €22 billion and counting, it's still years from achieving its primary milestone.

  • A wave of well-funded private fusion startups is on track to hit the same technical benchmarks as ITER faster and more cheaply -- raising real questions about the megaproject's relevance even as it celebrates progress.

The world's biggest nuclear fusion experiment just got one huge step closer to completion. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in Cadarache, France just received the final shipment of necessary components to assemble the giant magnet at the heart of the reactor. The central solenoid magnet, developed in the United States at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is a critical component of the massive experimental site, which is cooperatively funded and operated by a coalition of seven major world economies: China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

The central solenoid is awe-inspiring in its size as well as its capabilities.

"The central solenoid is 18 meters (59 feet) tall and 4.25 meters (14 feet) wide, composed of six individual modules," Interesting Engineering reported earlier this week.

"Each module weighs more than 122.5 tonnes (135 tons) and is wound from 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) of niobium-tin superconducting cable."

And this is just one component of a jaw-droppingly massive apparatus that represents "the grandest scientific experiment in the world". ITER's tokamak (the donut-shaped device designed to confine plasma with ultra-powerful magnets) measures a kilometer in length. The solenoid magnet as its core is therefore almost inconceivably powerful, and it's just one part of a much bigger and more impressive system. "This component belongs to a magnetic system weighing 3,000 tonnes (3,300 tons) that interacts with nine vacuum vessel sectors," Interesting Engineering goes on to say.

This beating heat of ITER has been 15 years in the making, with each individual module requiring a two-year process for fabrication and testing. ITER will never produce power to supply to the energy grid, but will serve as one of the most important – if not the most important – research projects on Earth to solve the puzzle of creating commercial nuclear fusion, the holy grail of clean energy. Nuclear fusion is the energetic process that powers our own sun. Replicating that process here on Earth could essentially provide limitless clean energy. It's a potentially long-lasting, ultra-efficient energy source that leaves behind zero greenhouse gases and zero hazardous radioactive waste, unlike nuclear fission.

But the scale of ITER, and the unprecedented nature of its goals, has led to increasingly long timelines and a ballooning budget for the slow-moving megaproject. While the delivery of the solenoid marks a major milestone, ITER is still years away from achieving first plasma, around €22 billion and nearly two decades after breaking ground.

ITER is still relevant, and will hopefully bring us invaluable scientific findings that would be impossible without its grand scale and budget. But the megaproject is facing increasing competition from smaller and more dexterous fusion ventures. Various other projects are on track to beat ITER to its mapped goalposts, and much more inexpensively.

The race for nuclear fusion is increasingly going private as investors start to recognize the technology as a matter of when, and not if. Interest from the tech sector is also ramping up as Silicon Valley scrambles to find a panacea to the energy monster that the AI boom has unleashed. As a result, a lot of deep-pocketed entities are now focused on fusion like never before.

"If you know how to build a fusion power plant, you can have unlimited energy anywhere and forever. It's hard to overstate what a big deal that will be," Bill Gates wrote in an October essay.

"The availability and affordability of electricity is a huge limiting factor for virtually every sector of the economy today. Removing those limits could be as transformative as the invention of the steam engine before the Industrial Revolution."

A new rush of Wall Street-backed fusion startups is already answering this call to arms, rapidly changing the scientific and economic landscape for nuclear fusion research everywhere. But ITER's backers argue that its looming obsolescence is a sign of the project's success rather than its failure, indicating that its achievements and high profile have inspired the current flood of private investing dollars into fusion research and development. And, if nothing else, ITER now stands as a vanishingly rare symbol of international cooperation for global interests, rather than nationalized and protectionist energy agendas.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 06:30
Tyler Durden

Political Warfare? Advocacy Group With Ties To Lefty Unions Targets SpaceX IPO

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Political Warfare? Advocacy Group With Ties To Lefty Unions Targets SpaceX IPO

The SOC Investment Group is a union-aligned shareholder advocacy organization formerly known as CtW Investment Group. It works with union-sponsored pension funds to mount pressure campaigns against public companies.

SOC's latest pressure campaign appears to target Elon Musk's SpaceX in an attempt to delay or derail the upcoming IPO.

The union-affiliated pension fund adviser, linked to the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) - a labor union that has supported the left-wing, billionaire-funded "No Kings" protest against President Trump...

... has asked regulators to review the accuracy and reliability of SpaceX's financials, ensure auditor independence, and examine accounting around transactions with other Elon Musk-linked companies, including xAI and Tesla.

The InfluenceWatch database via Capital Research Center shows SOC's ties with lefty unions... 

To note, SOC is weirdly obsessed with unhinged globalist ESG investment activism that damaged the U.S. economy during the Biden-Harris regime years.

SOC warned that investors could be exposed to SpaceX, whose valuation may decline once its financial disclosures are independently reviewed. Oddly enough, SOC is not a SpaceX shareholder but has previously pushed governance pressure campaigns at major companies, including Tesla.

"We are specifically concerned that SpaceX's IPO will expose numerous investors, many unwillingly, to a company whose value may decline once its financial disclosures can be independently assessed and verified," the letter said.

SpaceX is preparing to go public in less than two months, and SOC's letter to regulators appears intended to create regulatory friction with the SEC over what could become the largest IPO in history. The timing is very notable.

A successful SpaceX IPO at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation could dramatically expand Elon Musk's wealth and power, potentially transforming him into the world's first trillionaire.

From an information and political warfare lens, SOC's pressure campaign should be viewed less as a SpaceX governance issue and more as part of a broader left-wing operation against Musk's corporate empire.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 05:45
Tyler Durden

UK Nurseries Urged To Report 'Racist' Toddlers To Police In £1.3M Scheme

Zero Rss
1 week ago
UK Nurseries Urged To Report 'Racist' Toddlers To Police In £1.3M Scheme

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Childcare workers across Wales are being trained to spot and report “racist incidents” by toddlers under fresh guidance endorsed by government ministers and bankrolled with taxpayer cash.

The push, which includes lessons on “white privilege,” turns playgroups and nurseries into surveillance hubs for the state’s ‘anti-racism’ agenda — even when the alleged offenders are barely out of nappies.

The initiative has received over £1.3 million in taxpayer funding via the Welsh Government.

🔴 Welsh nurseries have been advised to report children for “racist incidents” in hate crime guidance backed by the Labour government.

The taxpayer-funded guidance has been circulated in order to make nurseries, play groups, and childminders “anti-racist” environments.

🔗:… pic.twitter.com/FcL6M0Jw3n

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) May 5, 2026

The guidance comes from Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL), based at Cardiff Metropolitan University.

It has been circulated to more than 300 nurseries, playgroups and childminders.

Staff are ludicrously told to assess whether a child’s behaviour could amount to a hate crime and, if so, contact police on 999 or 101.

Welsh nurseries told to report ‘racist' toddlers to POLICE under Labour-backed guidancehttps://t.co/Mfkhj0TayO

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 6, 2026

The document also pushes workers to audit their resources for “diversity,” discuss skin colour and race with very young children, and create “anti-racist” environments from the cradle.

The toolkit explicitly frames even child-to-child incidents in toddlers as potential “racist incidents” requiring formal logging and possible police involvement.

Critics rightly call it Orwellian madness — toddlers lack the cognitive development to hold racist beliefs, yet the state now demands they be policed as miniature thought criminals.

This latest outrage fits a clear and disturbing pattern of UK authorities targeting children with woke, pro-migration and Islam-compliant ideology while stamping down on any pushback.

Here are just some of the recent examples:

Local authorities warned schools that kids’ artwork risked violating Islamic blasphemy rules — a staggering concession to foreign religious law over British freedom of expression.

State schools are feeding children propaganda that frames illegal Channel crossings as something to celebrate rather than challenge.

The government instructed teachers to monitor and report any “anti-Muslim hostility,” turning classrooms into surveillance states for wrongthink.

A taxpayer-funded Prevent-style game literally flags children who question open borders as potential extremists.

Parents of a child who questioned why he had to celebrate Ramadan in school when he is not a Muslim were sent a letter informing them of the ‘racist’ incident.

Together these stories paint a grim picture: British children are being systematically stripped of innocence, taught to view their own heritage and skin colour as problematic, and conditioned to accept mass migration, Islam’s sensitivities and woke dogmas without question.

Questioning any of it risks being labelled a bigot, an extremist or, in the case of toddlers, a “racist” warranting a police report.

This is not education. It is ideological grooming funded by your taxes and enforced by a Labour government that has lost touch with reality — and with the British public.

Parents are right to be furious. The only answer is to push back hard before an entire generation is lost to this madness. Childhood should be about play, wonder and discovery — not state-mandated guilt sessions and police reports for playground squabbles.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 05:00
Tyler Durden

Baltic States Warn Of Unfunded Debt Surge For Europe's Defense Splurge

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Baltic States Warn Of Unfunded Debt Surge For Europe's Defense Splurge

In a rare outbreak of sanity from the continent that perfected kicking the can, officials on NATO’s eastern front are openly admitting what Brussels and Frankfurt have spent years denying: you can’t fund a permanent war footing with infinite borrowing and hope the bond market never notices.

Estonia’s outgoing ECB rate hawk Madis Muller dropped the red pill in parliament Thursday, bluntly telling lawmakers that jacking up budget deficits to pay for the defense surge is no long-term solution. “These higher defense expenditures are not temporary,” he warned. The message: the party is ending, and the tab is about to get ugly.

Next door in Latvia, Finance Minister Arvils Aseradens echoed the warning, calling for “every possible instrument” to secure sustainable funding. He even threw support behind Canadian PM Mark Carney’s pet idea of a multilateral defense bank, because nothing says fiscal responsibility like creating yet another supranational borrowing vehicle to paper over the cracks.

Both Baltic states, sitting on the razor’s edge with Moscow, not to mention sharing a border with the Russian bear, have massively ramped up military outlays in recent years. Their spending has exploded even as existing social welfare commitments continue to balloon budgets already teetering under the weight of Europe’s sacred model. Welcome to the European conundrum in 2026: you need guns to deter Russia, but the welfare state can’t be touched, and nobody wants to tell voters the truth about taxes.

The broader picture across the continent is grim. European nations are scrambling to square exploding public debt with an unfunded defense boom while somehow still pretending they can keep the lights on for Ukraine’s war effort. The math simply does not add up.

Estonia’s Debt Trajectory: From Poster Child to Problem Child

Estonia, the euro-area’s former fiscal hawk with just 1.3 million people, now finds itself in the crosshairs. Its debt-to-GDP ratio remains a relatively modest 24%, but that’s changing fast. Public debt is projected to more than double: from €10 billion ($11.8 billion) in 2025 to €21 billion by 2030. The IMF has already raised concerns, and Fitch downgraded the country’s sovereign rating back in 2023 as investors began pricing in geopolitical risk and demanding higher yields.

On Thursday, Estonia’s central bank doubled down on its earlier warnings: act now while you still have the luxury of being one of the EU’s least indebted nations. Because that window is closing fast.

Tallinn’s much-touted “defense tax” introduced in 2024? Already watered down and nowhere near enough to cover the actual sums required.

This is the inevitable endpoint of Europe’s post-2022 panic: politicians who spent decades hollowing out defense budgets in favor of green deals, migration costs, and generous entitlements suddenly discover they need actual military capability. Rather than make hard choices — cut elsewhere, raise taxes transparently, or rethink open-ended commitments — the default instinct is to borrow more and hope the ECB or some new “defense bank” magically makes the numbers work.

Spoiler: it won’t.

The Baltics are simply saying out loud what markets have been whispering for months. Permanent defense hikes require permanent revenue, not more creative accounting and supranational debt vehicles. Europe’s eastern flank is learning the hard way that you cannot deter Russia with PowerPoint slides and growing interest payments.

The real question now isn’t whether Europe will boost defense spending, it will and will then quietly shuffle most of the funds into various green (and not so green) grifts under the guise of an "existential threat." It’s who ultimately pays - and whether the bond vigilantes will wait patiently for the answer. Given the trajectory, the real question is when does the emperor's nudity finally get confirmed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 04:15
Tyler Durden

Hungary Returns Ukrainian Bank Cash & Gold Seized During Election Campaign

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Hungary Returns Ukrainian Bank Cash & Gold Seized During Election Campaign

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Hungary has returned money and valuables belonging to Ukrainian state-owned bank Oschadbank after authorities seized the shipment earlier this year while it was being transported from Austria to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the return on Telegram on Wednesday, saying the assets had been seized by Hungarian special services in March, a move he claimed had been unjustified.

“Today, the funds and valuables of Oschadbank, seized by Hungarian special services in March of this year, were returned,” Zelensky wrote.

“I thank Hungary for the constructive and civilized step,” he added.

The shipment, which reportedly included cash and gold belonging to Oschadbank’s Ukrainian branch, was stopped by Hungarian authorities during a period of high tension between Budapest and Kyiv.

Hungarian officials said at the time that the bank workers involved were suspected of money laundering.

The Ukrainians were later released, but the authorities retained the seized assets until now.

The incident occurred during Hungary’s parliamentary election campaign last month, when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had made criticism of Ukraine a central part of his political messaging.

His government was also locked in a dispute with Kyiv over the interruption of Russian oil supplies through Ukraine to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline.

Orbán, who had long clashed with Ukraine and its European backers over sanctions, aid, and energy policy, was defeated in April’s election.

Péter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party, will now succeed him, and the new Hungarian parliament is expected to be sworn in on Saturday.

The return of the Oschadbank assets follows a broader easing of tensions between Budapest and Kyiv.

Despite multiple claims from Ukraine during the election campaign that the Druzhba pipeline could not simply resume due to damage inflicted by Russian shelling, Kyiv promptly resumed the flow of oil to Hungary and Slovakia shortly after Orbán’s election defeat.

At the same time, Budapest stopped blocking final approval of a €90 billion European Union loan to Ukraine.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 03:30
Tyler Durden

Russia Outraged At Its Ally Armenia For Hosting Zelensky: 'Whose Side Of History Are You On?'

Zero Rss
1 week ago
Russia Outraged At Its Ally Armenia For Hosting Zelensky: 'Whose Side Of History Are You On?'

Russia is seething after its Caucasus regional ally Armenia decided to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a European summit earlier this week.

Moscow is further warning against Yerevan pursuing closer relations with the European Union as well. The Kremlin slammed Zelensky being hosted there, right in Russia's own backward, as "incomprehensible".

Source: Perry-Castañeda Library

"Russian society, with deep indignation and bewilderment, not only saw but remembered that Armenia, which we are used to considering a friendly, brotherly country, served as a platform. For whom? For a terrorist," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday.

"The current, illegitimate Kyiv regime has been issuing threats to strike Moscow during the annual parade on May 9, a day sacred to our peoples... And no one in Armenia’s current leadership rebuked Zelensky. So whose side of history are you on?” she posed.

"Such a course by the Armenian authorities will sooner or later lead to Yerevan’s irreversible involvement in Brussels’ anti-Russian line, with all the ensuing political and economic consequences for Armenia," she said.

However, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has responded to the pressure, stating: “Back in 2022-2023 I already stated that, on the issue of Ukraine, we are not an ally of Russia.”

He is also reportedly refusing to attend Moscow’s Victory Day parade on Saturday, saying he needs to stay in his country in order to prepare for parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

Armenia has long been a key member of the regional Russian-led bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, Armenia froze its participation since 2024, outraged over Russia's failure to protect ethnic Armenians during Azerbaijan’s 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia since played a 'peacekeeping' role with some limited troop deployments, however, Armenian Christians had already been booted from the ancient enclave.

Russian MFA tells Armenian ambassador: UNACCEPTABLE to provide platform for Zelensky to voice TERRORIST threats against Russia

VIDEO: Zelensky meeting Armenia’s Pashinyan in Yerevan on Monday pic.twitter.com/AfyL0J8bqO

— RT (@RT_com) May 7, 2026

So relations have been fraying, to say the least. PM Pashinyan made clear Thursday: "We have sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and I have said that we are not allies of Russia on the issue of Ukraine."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 02:45
Tyler Durden

The EU Is Pushing "Driver-Monitoring Cameras" - Here's Why...

Zero Rss
1 week ago
The EU Is Pushing "Driver-Monitoring Cameras" - Here's Why...

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

From July of this year, every vehicle registered in the European Union will be required to have driver-monitoring cameras in place. That’s not every new car manufactured, but every car registered.

The “Advanced Driver Distraction Warning” (ADDW) cameras are designed to monitor driver behaviour for signs of potential distraction, and then set off a warning if those signs are detected.

It was first announced in 2024 as part of the EU’s “Vision Zero” plan to eliminate car-related deaths by 2050.

But it’s not really about that.

It’s never about what they say it’s about.

Here’s where this goes…

Firstly, kiss successful insurance claims goodbye.

Any accident will be blamed on “sub-optimal driver performance”, and that time you checked your phone while stopped at a light, or your hands moved briefly from the 10-and-2 or your eyeline wasn’t correctly picked up by the mirror sensor, will be used to blame your fender-bender on you.

This will create a change in accident reporting statistics, spiking “driver error” as the cause for anything and everything that goes wrong on the road.

This, in turn, will kick off a big “people drive dangerously” propaganda push.

Headlines like “ADDW data harvesting has shown up 80% of us might be driving more recklessly than we think”, or “most veteran drivers slip in to bad habits, reports show” will appear.

Then comes the new legislation to act on this totally fabricated problem.

What is it? It’s re-certification.

That’s not speculation; it already happened. Under new EU rules, passed just a few months ago, every driver has to be re-certified and issued a new driver’s license after 15 years. It would be the smallest of tweaks to add “or after Y number of distraction warnings are recorded” to that legislation.

The new driver’s licenses will be digital, with biometrics included. It’s possible new cars will be undrivable without a scan of your biometric license.

Your car’s data will be uploaded to a database, of course. That’s going to happen.

…in fact, it already is.

It’s not at all far-fetched to imagine your driver monitoring data getting scanned for errors by an AI, and any detected errors putting points on your license. If you go over a certain number of points, your ability to drive is taken away…pending recertification.

You can appeal, and drive while the appeal takes place. But the appeal fee will be greater than the recertification fee, and if you lose, you have to pay extra legal costs, and you’re subject to an extended driving ban.

This will be covered in the press as a universally Good Thing.

Headlines will celebrate the (almost entirely fictional) decrease in traffic fatalities, whilst baselessly claiming that the smaller number of private vehicles on the road has “improved pollution levels in the inner cities”.

An opinion piece from an anonymous “former driver” will appear in the Guardian, “I lost my driver’s license, and it’s the best thing that ever happened to me”.

It will talk up how much money they’re saving on petrol and road tax, and how much fitter they get walking and cycling everywhere and how they know their neighbours so well now.

Not forgetting all sorts of cozy anecdotes about the charming characters you meet and life-affirming tableaux you witness using public transport.

Meanwhile, American “journalists” will wax poetic about the EU’s “forward-thinking system”, and the UK press and punditry will talk of “lagging behind the EU”, and blame every road accident on Brexit.

Some academics will publish a paper finding that “private car ownership has decreased under EU driver monitoring regulations”, and this “unintended upside” will be widely applauded.

Cue Buzzfeed: “New license rules have taken cars off the road, and it’s a good thing.”

And Vox: “The EU’s driver’s license law has given us a glimpse of what a car-less future could look like, and it’s beautiful”.

While all this is going on, there will be persistent white noise on the safety of “robot drivers” vs human drivers, talking up automatic driving software in Chinese electric cars and so on.

Public transport will be increasingly automated too – whether really automated, or just remotely driven doesn’t matter. The point will be to remove images of people driving from the public sphere.

The important part is you don’t get to decide where you’re going or how you’re getting there.

The end goal will be to inculcate a generally anti-car atmosphere, where even knowing how to drive will be considered somewhat old-fashioned.

Middle-class parents will boast to social media echo chambers that “I never wanted my Jacinda to learn!”, and receive bot-fueled applause as a reward. Implausible self-congratulatory anecdotes detailing how “My eight-year-old just told me he doesn’t want to drive because it’s bad for the planet! Children are so wise!” will go viral.

Because the easiest way to trap people is to make freedom uncool.

That might seem like a lot of speculation based on a little information, and in some ways it is, but pattern recognition is important. It’s much easier to put out a fire that hasn’t started yet, and we know they want to burn it all down.

We know they want to end private vehicle ownership; they have repeatedly said so.

Well, this is how they do that. A little at a time, creating atmospheres and environments. Seemingly arbitrary rules and regulations with “unforeseen consequences”. That’s how they work now, they come at us sideways with slow-developing long-cons, because they can’t afford to work in straight lines, not since Covid.

Stuff like this might seem a small – a throwaway issue vs war or the price of oil – but the powers-that-shouldn’t-be have an eye on the far horizon when they take small steps, and we should pay attention to where they want to take us.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 02:00
Tyler Durden

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