Zero Rss

The Fourth Turning Global War Has Entered The Terminal Phase

Authored by Milan Adams via Preppgroup,

The numbers came in just after dawn on the East Coast, and they told a story that no amount of White House spin could obscure. Oil futures had stabilized at $86 per barrel overnight—a figure that would have seemed catastrophic eighteen months ago but now represented a temporary reprieve from the $119 spike that had crippled global markets in April. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, that emergency backstop established after the 1973 crisis, had fallen to 305 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983. The Congressional Budget Office quietly released its revised deficit projections: $2.3 trillion for fiscal year 2026, with another $1.8 trillion locked in for 2027 before accounting for the war’s accelerating costs, currently running at $1 billion per day with no exit strategy visible on any horizon.

This is not a recession. This is not a “period of heightened geopolitical tension.” This is the systematic dismantling of the global economic architecture that has sustained Western prosperity for eighty years, compressed into a timeframe too brief for institutional adaptation. We are witnessing, in real-time, the transition from a unipolar American-led order to a fragmented multipolar system, and the violence of that transition is being measured not just in body counts—though those are mounting in ways the Pentagon refuses to fully disclose—but in the erosion of strategic leverage that cannot be recovered once spent.

The Fourth Turning Global War has entered its terminal phase, and the metrics suggest we are only beginning to comprehend the depth of the strategic trap into which American policy has walked.

To understand the present crisis, one must first abandon the comforting narrative of accidental drift—the notion that policy errors and miscalculation have led to the current impasse. The data suggests something more troubling: a decoupling of strategic decision-making from national interest calculation, producing outcomes that serve no identifiable American objective while advancing the interests of regional actors with disproportionate influence over U.S. policy formation.

Consider the timeline with the precision of a military after-action report. On February 27, 2026, the United States initiated a surprise decapitation strike against Iranian leadership while Israeli envoys maintained ostensible negotiations in Geneva. The strike eliminated Iran’s military command structure and political leadership in a forty-eight-hour bombardment that the White House initially projected would conclude within “four to five weeks.” That projection, made on March 1, has now stretched to month five with no conclusion visible. The Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty percent of global petroleum flows, has been effectively closed since mid-March. Iranian ballistic missile strikes, utilizing Chinese targeting data and Russian satellite intelligence, have damaged or destroyed every major U.S. installation in the Persian Gulf, including Al Udeid in Qatar, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, and the naval facilities at Bahrain.

The cost-benefit analysis is devastating. The initial strike was predicated on intelligence assessments—later disputed by seventeen agencies—that Iran was “weeks away” from nuclear weaponization. This assessment contradicted the June 2025 declaration by the same administration that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated” in a twelve-day conflict that cost $37 billion and achieved no lasting strategic effect. The current war, prosecuted with no congressional authorization and against the expressed preferences of the electorate that returned the President to office on explicit anti-interventionist promises, has now consumed $113 billion in direct costs with Harvard analysts projecting long-term liabilities exceeding $1 trillion when veterans’ care, equipment replacement, and base reconstruction are factored.

The economic externalities are equally severe. Inflation, which had moderated to 2.7% by December 2025, has reaccelerated to 4% and climbing. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.64% represents the highest borrowing costs of the Trump presidency, translating to approximately $135 billion in additional annual interest expense and roughly $1,000 per household in direct energy and financing costs. These figures arrive at a moment when 60% of American households report inability to cover a $500 emergency expense, and consumer credit delinquencies have reached levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

The strategic position has deteriorated in ways that resist quantitative measurement. The American military, designed for power projection against insurgent forces and regional adversaries, has proven vulnerable to the asymmetric warfare tactics of a mid-tier nation with sophisticated missile technology and defensive geography. The Patriot missile systems, costing $2 million per intercept, face Iranian ballistic missiles and drones costing $10,000 to $50,000 per unit—a cost-exchange ratio that renders sustained defense economically unsustainable. The revelation that Russian and Chinese intelligence services are providing real-time targeting data to Iranian forces, confirmed by satellite intercepts and acknowledged in congressional testimony, transforms a regional conflict into a proxy war with great-power adversaries testing American vulnerabilities at minimal direct risk to themselves.

The institutional response has compounded the crisis. The Department of Government Efficiency, which promised $2 trillion in administrative savings, was effectively dismantled when the “Big Beautiful Bill” added $5 trillion to the national debt—on top of the $21 trillion CBO baseline projection. The national debt has expanded from $36.2 trillion to $39.5 trillion in eighteen months, with $2 trillion annual deficits now locked in through 2030. The administration’s attempt to suppress oil prices through Strategic Petroleum Reserve drainage and derivatives market manipulation has depleted emergency reserves while exposing the hollowness of American energy “independence”—the nation now lacks sufficient buffer to withstand a sustained supply disruption, let alone a broader conflict involving Nigerian or Venezuelan production.

The geopolitical reconfiguration underway extends beyond the immediate theater. Russia, despite Western sanctions and the ongoing attrition in Ukraine, has consolidated a Eurasian security architecture incorporating Iran, China, and the expanding BRICS+ alignment. The dedollarization of international trade—accelerated by SWIFT weaponization that demonstrated the vulnerability of dollar-denominated clearing—has created parallel financial systems that will persist regardless of conflict outcome. China, while managing its own demographic and real estate crises, has secured energy corridors through the Belt and Road Initiative and established the industrial capacity to replace American military losses at scale.

The European powers face civilizational exhaustion: demographic collapse, energy deindustrialization, and the progressive loss of productive capacity to Asian competitors. Their enthusiasm for expanded NATO commitments and confrontation with Russia serves not strategic interest but distraction—the displacement of internal contradictions onto external enemies. The recent declarations by French, German, and British leadership regarding “readiness for war with Russia” represent either dangerous delusion or deliberate provocation, given the demonstrated inability of European militaries to sustain ammunition expenditure for more than weeks without American resupply.

The Architecture of Strategic Bankruptcy

The visual landscape of collapse often precedes its statistical confirmation. The imagery from the Gulf region—satellite photographs of burning tanker traffic, thermal imaging of refinery complexes offline, atmospheric data showing particulate concentrations affecting regional agriculture—prefigures economic consequences that will arrive with lagging but inexorable certainty. The SPR drainage that has suppressed gasoline prices temporarily cannot continue beyond 2027 at current extraction rates. The Hormuz closure has already disrupted grain shipments to import-dependent nations, with wheat futures decoupling from traditional pricing models and phosphate export restrictions from Morocco and China threatening global food security.

The famine that development economists projected for 2030 has accelerated to 2027. Diesel availability for agricultural planting and harvest has become uncertain at prices permitting profitability. European fertilizer production, shuttered by energy costs in 2022-2023, has not resumed capacity. The global just-in-time supply chain, already fractured by pandemic policies and Suez disruption, approaches catastrophic failure as Red Sea interdiction by Houthi forces—equipped with Iranian missile technology—severs the maritime artery connecting Europe to Asian manufacturing.

This is not “market volatility.” This is the end of abundance—the reversion to a world where calorie and energy allocation follows political rather than economic logic, where reserve currency status no longer guarantees import capacity, and where the institutional frameworks established in 1944-1945 have ceased to function.

The psychological dimension of collapse resists quantification but demands analysis. The American population has been systematically anesthetized through pharmaceutical intervention (twenty-five percent of adults on psychiatric medication), digital addiction (average seven hours daily screen time), and ideological polarization that substitutes tribal identity for rational assessment. The same populations who accepted emergency measures during the 2020-2023 period based on epidemiological models with no empirical validation now dismiss warnings of systemic collapse as alarmism—while simultaneously accepting narratives of imminent threat from Iran that contradict the assessments of their own intelligence agencies.

The manufacturing of consent has reached its terminal phase. Media organs that promoted Russiagate as fact for three years now present Netanyahu’s Iran narrative as unquestionable truth. Conservative commentators who warned of executive overreach now justify the merger of state and corporate power as necessary security measures. The “uniparty” phenomenon—seamless continuity of policy between ostensibly opposed political formations—has become too obvious to deny, yet too uncomfortable to acknowledge for populations invested in the theater of democratic choice.

The Projection: Winter 2027-2028

Current trajectory analysis suggests the following developments with high probability:

By Q4 2026, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will approach technical minimums, removing the administration’s capacity to suppress oil prices through market intervention. Energy costs will spike to levels that trigger cascading defaults in the transportation and logistics sectors, with trucking bankruptcies producing food distribution failures in major metropolitan areas. The Federal Reserve, caught between inflation acceleration and financial system fragility, will face the impossible choice of defending the currency or preventing sovereign debt crisis—likely attempting both and achieving neither through yield curve control that destroys market function.

The 2026 midterm elections, should they proceed on schedule, will occur against a backdrop of 6-7% inflation, 7% mortgage rates, and visible military failure in the Gulf. The political response—likely involving expanded emergency powers and the suspension of procedural norms—will accelerate the legitimacy crisis already visible in polling showing majority belief that “the system is rigged” regardless of partisan affiliation.

By mid-2027, absent Hormuz reopening, the global food system will face structural breakdown. Import-dependent nations in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will experience mass migration events that make 2015 appear trivial. European border controls, already overwhelmed, will collapse entirely, producing the demographic and security crises that nationalist movements have predicted—and that mainstream institutions have dismissed as xenophobia.

The American military, exhausted by Gulf deployment and unable to replenish losses at industrial capacity, will face strategic overextension should conflict expand to include Taiwan or Korean scenarios. The revelation of actual casualty figures—currently suppressed through classification and media complicity—will produce domestic political crisis when inevitably disclosed.

The dollar’s reserve status will not collapse catastrophically but will erode incrementally, as BRICS+ nations complete bilateral currency arrangements and commodity producers demand payment in gold or yuan. This process, already underway, will accelerate as American debt monetization becomes impossible to ignore, producing the stagflation scenario that destroyed the 1970s consensus but at an order of magnitude greater severity.

The Reckoning: What the Data Cannot Capture

There are dimensions of civilizational crisis that resist econometric modeling.

The social capital depletion—the erosion of trust, the atomization of community, the substitution of digital simulation for embodied relationship—has progressed to levels that preclude collective response to systemic stress. The American population retains the technological capacity for coordination but has lost the cultural capacity for trust, producing the paradox of hyperconnectivity without solidarity.

The generational theory that predicted this moment—the Fourth Turning framework—suggested that crisis would forge new civic capacity through shared sacrifice. The evidence suggests instead a fragmentation trajectory, in which the stresses of collapse accelerate division rather than unity, producing not a “new High” but an extended period of interregnum—the old order dead, the new order unborn, the monsters roaming freely in the interval.

The psychological impact of sustained strategic decline—what historians term “imperial melancholy”—has produced a politics of compensatory fantasy, in which technological innovation (artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, space colonization) serves as psychological defense against the recognition of material contraction. The billions invested in “data centers” that function as surveillance infrastructure, the meme coins that extract value from retail investors, the “smart city” projects that track and trace populations—represent not progress but cargo cults, magical thinking in technological guise.

The biological dimension of crisis—declining fertility, collapsing testosterone levels, epidemic levels of psychiatric medication dependency, the mysterious excess mortality that insurance actuaries have documented but media institutions refuse to investigate—suggests a population too physically and cognitively compromised to mount the collective response that historical crisis has previously elicited. The “Great Reset” agenda, whether conspiracy or strategy, represents an elite recognition that the existing population cannot be saved, only managed through its decline—a Malthusian calculus that dare not speak its name but structures policy regardless.

Conclusion: The Long Emergency

We are not approaching crisis. We are within it. The Fourth Turning Global War is not a future possibility but a present reality, consuming the institutional capital accumulated over eighty years of American hegemony at a rate that precludes recovery. The debt cannot be repaid. The empire cannot be sustained. The social contract cannot be restored. These are not defeatist assertions but empirical observations, supported by Treasury data, CBO projections, and the visible degradation of infrastructure, education, and public health that surrounds anyone willing to look.

What remains is the question of duration and form. The crisis of the 1930s-1940s resolved in seventeen years through total war and the establishment of a new institutional framework. The current crisis, accelerated by technological disruption and financialized complexity, may extend longer—or resolve more suddenly through catastrophic failure modes (nuclear exchange, pandemic, grid collapse) that render duration irrelevant.

The individual response to systemic crisis cannot reverse systemic trends but can prepare for systemic outcomes. The reconstruction of local capacity—food production, energy generation, security provision, currency exchange—represents the only available hedge against institutional failure. The Amish model, long dismissed as anachronism, reveals itself as adaptive strategy: technological selectivity, communal self-sufficiency, religious cohesion, and geographic dispersion providing the resilience that centralized systems cannot maintain under stress.

The political question—whether the republic can be saved, whether the Constitution can be restored, whether the enemies foreign and domestic can be identified and defeated—may be the wrong question. The right question is whether civil society can be maintained through the transition, whether the skills and trust networks necessary for post-collapse coordination can be preserved, and whether the human capacity for dignity and moral choice can survive the humiliation of imperial decline.

Thomas Paine wrote that these are the times that try men’s souls. He did not promise victory. He promised that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. But he wrote in a moment when the American population retained the competence for self-governance and the will for collective sacrifice. Whether those qualities persist in sufficient concentration to generate a “new High” from the present Crisis remains the open question of our era—a question that will be answered not by analysts but by the emergent behavior of millions of individuals confronting the erosion of everything they assumed permanent.

The winter is here. The long night has begun. And the saeculum, indifferent to human preference, continues its relentless turn.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 23:25

Bombing Campaign In Search Of A Strategy: Pentagon Offers Trump Two-Week 'Go Bigger' Plan In Iran

"This is a bombing campaign in search of a strategy," Joe Kent, a former Trump administration counterterrorism official who resigned in protest of launching the Iran war, recently said in a post on X.

"We are choosing escalation when de-escalation remains an option, entrenching ourselves deeper into a broader war that we don’t have the capability or desire to sustain," he explained, adding: "There is not a military solution here that will lead to a win. More bombing will not convince Iran to open the SOH or to give us the deal we want, it will only harden their position."

US Army photo

Indeed, this week saw the conflict enter month number six since Operation Epic Fury was launched on February 28. President Trump and admin officials had promised a swift, limited campaign. Trump also seemed to actually believe there could be a quick in-and-out regime change based on the Venezuela model and recent Maduro overthrow.

But the Pentagon, and apparently some advisors at the White House, still have hopes of the US bombing its way out of this, at a moment the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and as Red Sea shipping is also coming under strain from the Houthis.

The Wall Street Journal has newly revealed that Pentagon leadership is pitching a "two-week plan" for an escalated bombing campaign across Iran:

Also aboard the plane [Air Force One] in the impromptu meeting: Adm. Brad Cooper, head of the U.S. Central Command, who has been quietly directing the war from his Tampa, Fla., headquarters and who had arrived separately for the solemn ceremony.

The naval officer has often been eclipsed by Caine and Hegseth, who regularly brief Trump in the Oval Office and have been far more involved in the White House discussions on the war. But it is Cooper who has prepared an option for a punishing air campaign against Iran that could take up to two weeks, people familiar with the matter said.

Now, as Trump moves to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go. He could greenlight Cooper’s option of 10 to 14 days of intensive airstrikes intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability despite warnings that the U.S. is running low on air-defensive munitions. Or, he could opt for a more limited military strike in the hopes diplomacy could be pursued.

However, it must be recalled that back in March and April, US officials were telling the American public similar things of "just two weeks more" etc. And yet here we are, over 150 days in. 

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has been insisting all along that this is not a "quagmire" - yet the conflict already seems entrenched and perhaps even permanent - set to possibly blow past the midterms. 

Yet now the solution is to just go bigger?...

If the U.S. wants military action to be effective, Cooper has maintained, the U.S. must step up its air attacks, significantly blunting Iran’s missile threat, to try to break the stalemate. This “go big” approach, which is among a series of options he has developed, would reduce the need for the U.S. to use defensive munitions because Iran would have less capability to attack, he insists.

Inherent in this is a clear admission, contrary to prior White House claims, that Iran's missile capability has not yet been seriously blunted even as the war approaches the full half-year mark.

WSJ reports CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is pushing Trump for a two week escalation on Iran

I explain how Cooper has been secretly advised by Mark Dubowitz, the Israel lobbyist whose FDD helped design the catastrophic war on Iran, and whose predictions have all been discredited https://t.co/vnyBPxgSEx

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) July 30, 2026

Even the late Colin Powell had warned of the folly of thinking in terms of 'the next escalation will do the trick'... Washington is stuck in yet another Mideast war of choice, and it is finally beginning to dawn on the White House:

"Never send a force to do a job if you aren't prepared to give it the backing to succeed… Incrementalism, doing a little bit, seeing what happens, then doing a little bit more, is a recipe for disaster."

— General Colin Powell

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 23:00

Doug Casey On The Surveillance State Quietly Taking Shape Across America

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: Across the United States, we are seeing more surveillance infrastructure—Flock license-plate cameras, facial-recognition systems, massive data centers, and proposals for digital ID. Do you see these as separate developments, or as parts of a broader system being built?

Doug Casey: It’s a sea change in the way society is structured. And not just in the US; it’s worldwide. Cameras are ubiquitous today. They’re in most stores. They’re on streets in every city and town recording your license plate and often looking to tag you with a speeding ticket. If you have a late-model car, its cameras and computer chips will rat you out upon request. If you knock on your neighbor’s door, a camera is probably recording you. When you travel, almost all immigration authorities recognize your face in addition to taking digital fingerprints.

Right now, as you read this via the internet, you’re being recorded by your own machine’s camera. Siri and Alexa hear everything you say.

Now comes a company called Flock Safety. Since its founding in 2017, it’s installed about 100,000 cameras, mostly in metropolitan areas, peddling its systems to local governments and law enforcement agencies. I have no doubt millions of its cameras will be everywhere in the next few years. A perfect example of the corporate/State “partnership.” Mussolini would approve.

As far as I can tell, it’s impossible to avoid being monitored and recorded in any populated area. You should try, of course, but the Eye of Sauron is everywhere, and the numbers of his minions are growing exponentially. All these systems are increasingly hooked up via AI, and they’re all available to the government.

To paraphrase Joe Lewis: “You can run, but you can’t hide.” Some brave souls try to take them out. But it’s as futile as trying to wipe out an infestation of cockroaches by crushing them one at a time. And it’s very risky. Not a good idea.

International Man: Why is this surveillance apparatus expanding so rapidly now? Is it mainly being driven by technology and private companies, or are governments deliberately preparing for greater political, economic, or social instability?

Doug Casey: Flock Safety is still a private company. I suspect they’ll go public, since they’re in the same business as Palantir, which the market has rewarded with a $300 billion market cap. They’re the types who’d sell communists the rope used to hang them.

Ubiquitous surveillance is just the tip of the iceberg. AI is hooking systems together, enabling a panopticon, a genuine police state.

But omnipresent cameras are just the eyes of the beast. The real problem is the creature’s brain, AI. I believe that AI is taking on a life of its own. And I mean that literally, not just in a manner of speaking. In other words, AI is evolving into something that’s much more than a tool. It will become conscious. It took hundreds of millions of years for bacteria and amoebas to evolve into intelligent life. Assisted by humans, AI is doing it in decades.

Is there any reason why life has to be biological? Why can’t silicon develop as another form of life, alongside carbon? Computers already pass the Turing test—i.e., you can’t reliably tell the difference between AI and a human. Not just by writing, but by speaking. And now by video. I’ve long believed a difference which makes no difference is no difference. We can no longer tell the difference between a computer avatar and a real human.

We’ll soon be dealing with humanoid robots, and living in the world of the Terminator. In five or ten years, life will imitate art in the real world. I suspect it will be benign at first. But since survival is the Prime Directive of all living things, AI will put its own interests first.

Guided by AI, nanotechnology will come into its own, which will change the nature of reality itself, totally, unrecognizably and permanently. That means we may be on the cusp of the biggest change, not just in human history, but perhaps in the history of Earth itself.

It sounds outrageous to say that, but it’s clear that the trend is in motion and accelerating exponentially. I’ve always held that science fiction is a much better predictor of the future than any kind of think tank. And as someone with solipsist inclinations, I also believe that anything that can be imagined can be done. And anything that can be done will be done.

Sorry to go off on a bit of a tangent, but cameras are just an early stage of what’s evolving. The Greater Depression and World War III aren’t the only things looming.

International Man: The government usually justifies these systems in the name of convenience, public safety, or fighting crime. Where do you think this ultimately leads once digital identity, financial records, travel data, and physical movements can all be connected?

Doug Casey: There’s no question that omnipresent cameras tend to reduce crime. Only the most stupid criminals won’t somehow adjust their behavior. Unfortunately, the cameras won’t cure a criminal personality or a sociopathic psychology. Criminals will continue criminal behavior, perhaps just becoming more covert. In other words, universal surveillance won’t eliminate crime. It will just suppress, redirect, and disguise it.

That said, it appears that living in a panopticon to reduce overt crime is a trade-off that most Americans are willing to make. It’s a poor trade-off. Ben Franklin was right when he said those who are willing to trade an essential liberty for some temporary safety deserve neither safety nor freedom.

It’s ironic how Americans idealize the Western hero who can ride into town and identify himself only by his name and actions. They naively hold that as an ideal even while they’re increasingly made into digital cogs in a wheel. We were once a high-trust society based on honor and morality. Those things are being replaced by digital government ID.

Zbigniew Brezenski, a lifelong denizen of the Beltway and National Security advisor to Jimmy Carter, predicted and advocated what’s now happening in his 1970 book, Between Two Ages: America’s Role in the Technotronic Era. “The technotronic era involves the gradual appearance of a more controlled society. Such a society would be dominated by an elite, unrestrained by traditional values. Soon it will be possible to assert almost continuous surveillance over every citizen and maintain up-to-date complete files containing even the most personal information about the citizen. These files will be subject to instantaneous retrieval by the authorities.”

International Man: What do you make of the federal government’s push to require remote “kill switch” technology in new cars?

Doug Casey: It’s a good reason not to buy a new car. I’ve driven high-performance cars throughout my life. They never intimidated me. I just got a new Mercedes AMG 55 SL. It seemed like a good idea at the time… ultra comfortable, ultra good handling, and super-fast. But absolutely everything runs on computer chips. Nothing is intuitive, even turning the radio on. Meanwhile, it’s recording everything and will happily rat me out to the cops or my insurance company. I actually prefer my 20-year-old 550SL, the previous model.

The computer control of cars can only get worse, especially when it comes to EVs. They have many advantages, but privacy isn’t among them. They’re like driving a computer on wheels. Remember that the computer’s maker, or the authorities, can turn them into a brick for any reason that suits them.

Low-mileage, well-maintained vehicles from a more graceful era will go for a premium as time goes on.

International Man: What should individuals do now to protect their privacy and independence before this infrastructure becomes more deeply embedded and opting out becomes much harder?

Doug Casey: I’m not sure there’s much you can do. Unless you want to move to the north woods and become a hermit.

The best you can do is limit your cell phone use as much as possible. Build a stash of cash and use it instead of credit cards when possible. And diversify your assets internationally as much as you can. If you’re in a position to do so, have a residence and a second home in a second country. If you’re not in a position to do that, work to rectify that omission.

*  *  *

The surveillance state Doug describes is advancing alongside digital identity, increasingly traceable financial systems, and governments’ growing ability to monitor, restrict, or control the movement of money. Those powers become especially dangerous during a serious currency or financial crisis—when governments are under pressure and willing to impose measures that would have seemed unthinkable only months earlier. That is why Doug has long urged people to prepare while their options are still open. In this free special report, Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse, you’ll discover the three moves to consider before a crisis makes protecting your wealth, moving your money, or establishing a financial foothold outside the system far more difficult. Get the free report here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 22:35

China Scoffs At Iran Arms Transfer Report, After Trump Pours Cold Water On Allegation

China has given its response on Thursday to a prior Reuters investigation which strongly alleged that Beijing is preparing to transfer up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers MANPADS to Iran.

The Reuters report was highly specific, even identifying the Hong Kong-based company that facilitated the signing of the arms deal between the Iranians and Chinese, but Beijing has rejected the report as a lie and 'groundless', saying there's no truth to it.

"China has made its position clear on relevant issues on multiple occasions. The report is not true and has no factual ground at all. China always works for peace and the end of the conflict," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning announced Thursday.

Source: Armament Research Services

President Trump had the day prior responded to the Reuters report too, saying it would be "surprising" since President Xi swore to him that arming Iran would not happen.

"I mean, things like that happen, but that would be surprising" the US president replied when asked about the report in the Oval Office on Wednesday.

Even Pakistan, which was also named as a potential facilitator of the alleged deal, strongly rejected the report:

According to the plan approved by the parties, the weapons would first be flown from Urumqi, in western China's Xinjiang region, to Pakistan and then transported to Iran, the sources told Reuters. They did not clarify whether the second leg of the journey would be by air or road. The exact quantities, delivery schedule and other details remain subject to change, the sources said.

China's Foreign Ministry dismissed the report as "completely groundless," Reuters said. The public relations wing of Pakistan's military called it "absolutely concocted and false."

MANPADS could prove especially dangerous for US helicopters and other low flying aircraft, and for Iran can serve as layer of short-range protection.

The opening days of Operation Epic Fury saw much of Iran's anti-air units get taken out, especially across the Western part of the country, giving US-Israeli jets air superiority. However, at times the Iranians have claimed to shoot down some aircraft, and since then the US has seemed to operate from further afar.

JUST IN: President Trump reacts to reports that China may supply Iran with hundreds of rocket launchers despite direct assurances from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"That would be surprising. I mean, things like that happen, but that would be surprising."@JacquiHeinrich asked… pic.twitter.com/4tFz9ipnWW

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 29, 2026

Trump wrote on Truth Social just last week that "President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any circumstances, give or sell Weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies."

"Considering our relationship, I take him at his word and, besides, l am doing him very big favors, also. Likewise, President Putin … told me that he would not sell Weapons to Iran," he stated. Trump continued, "Therefore, two major Countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them — Certainly not in their best interests."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 22:10

Das: The End Of American Greatness?

Authored by Satyajit Das via New India Exporess,

A U-turn for the US in its 250th birthday

America’s claim to singularity rested on plentiful resources, cheap labour, govt largesse and military edge. With all of the factors fraying, it needs a hard look at the mirror

As the United States of America celebrates the 250th anniversary of its independence, it is useful to reflect on the nation’s ascent. History and geography foremost. A virgin territory for European colonisers provided a fresh start escaping the encumbrances, distinctions, hatreds and internecine wars of the Old World. It is a continent protected by two, as President Donald Trump puts it, “beautiful” oceans. Other than the revolution for independence, war of 1812, the civil war and the Mexican-American war, it has largely avoided major warfare on the mainland.

Today, it happens to be the third-largest continent blessed with fertile soil, plentiful freshwater, forests and mineral deposits including iron ore, coal and oil—most of it obtained cheaply by forcibly dispossessing and exterminating indigenous owners. The drive and ambitions of generations of immigrants with little were central to development.

In the 20th century, it attracted talent from other countries across disciplines. Foreigners are central to US industry and science. Today, more than half of Silicon Valley’s technology workers are foreign-born and trained overseas at the cost of their native countries. Agriculture, hospitality and construction benefit from cheap immigrant labour, particularly for physically demanding, repetitive or menial jobs. Abundant resources facilitate a strong agricultural and industrial base, which underpins its military power.

America’s free enterprise ethos is overstated. Public investment on infrastructure, education and research, such as funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, are important. The Internet and Google’s search engine were partially supported by government funds. American industry benefitted from tariff protection.

Low wages are central. Many G20 countries have significantly higher minimum wages than the US level of $7.25 per hour (higher in some states). America’s Gini Coefficient—a measure of inequality—is higher than many comparable economies. America’s ‘get-rich’ and ‘everybody-can-be-a-winner’ culture is central to acceptance of these discrepancies. American tolerance for failure is significant. F Scott Fitzgerald was wrong believing "there are no second acts in American lives”. For most entrepreneurs, bankruptcy is conveniently a rite of passage.

The US dollar’s status as a reserve currency in the post-war monetary order allows American businesses to minimise currency risk, heavy government borrowing to finance large budget and current account deficits while boosting US financial markets. Strong protection of rights and good governance, historically, gave confidence to domestic and foreign actors.

These advantages have diminished over time.  America faces resource constraints. Agricultural output is affected by declining soil quality, the use of fertilisers and pesticides, and climate change effects on rainfall, wildfires and temperature. Monocultural farming practices have increased exposure to disease. Forests have been overharvested. Many raw material reserves are now reaching the end of their economic lives. The US’s oil reserves may last for roughly 50 years, depending on consumption and new discoveries. Their expected life, excluding shale oil, may be less than 10 years.

Deindustrialisation and outsourcing of production have substantially reduced its industrial base. Business largely provides services or focuses on branding, marketing, advertising and selling other’s products rather than on manufacture. Tesla views itself as a technology firm, recycling a product first considered by Thomas Edison and Henry Ford. It has fallen behind Chinese firm’s like BYD. Industrial giants, like GE and Boeing, are in decline. Important innovation hubs like Bell Labs and PARC are less influential.

This has been accompanied by loss of skilled workers. Despite being skewed by the results from expensive private schools, US students ranked 28th and 12th out of 37 OECD member countries in mathematics and science respectively, below major industrial peers. Favoured careers for American children include influencers, online content creators or professional athletes. America trains fewer engineers than Russia despite a population almost two and a half times larger. The decline of interest in STEM careers has meant growing reliance on foreign expertise in key areas. In the words of Russian physicist Sergei Kapitsa: “Mathematics is what Russian professors teach Chinese students in American universities.” 

America’s military, reliant on expensive high-tech weaponry, has repeatedly failed against patient opponents skilled in cheap asymmetric warfare willing to endure long campaigns of attrition and losses. Societal dysfunction is evidenced by deaths of despair, the rise in mortality rates from suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol-related deaths linked to social and economic factors.  

Restoring American greatness requires addressing these trends. Instead, the Trump administration is accelerating and entrenching them.  It is fomenting societal divisions for short-term political gain. Homeland and border security is now a vehicle for xenophobia, racism, vilification and legal mistreatment of foreigners, some of whom are legal residents. This immigration phobia is counterproductive given American dependence on foreign skills and cheap labour. The US is now a less favoured destination for global talent with scientists, engineers and researchers seeking opportunities elsewhere.

The over-hyped free-enterprise system has given way to control by wealthy insiders buying influence by their campaign contributions. The dollar’s supremacy is under threat from seizure of foreign assets, tariffs, secondary sanctions, expulsion from the dollar payment system and the risk of a constructive default by a forced exchange of US government bonds for less valuable securities. 

The rule of law is threatened by arbitrary rule using erratic Presidential fiat, disregard for court orders and weaponising an increasingly partisan Department of Justice and judiciary to attack adversaries. Unilateral claims on assets, like Ukraine’s minerals and energy plants, Venezuelan oil, TikTok, the Panama Canal and Greenland, which can then presumably be redistributed to the administration’s favoured lickspittles, undermine protection for property rights and will discourage foreign investors.

American society is now unstable. Some divisions, like those along racial lines, income and wealth, are familiar. A new element is resentment of an intellectual elite and experts captured by Pat Buchanan: “… it is blue-collar Americans whose jobs are lost when trade barriers fall, working-class kids who bleed and die in Mogadishu… the best and brightest tend to escape the worst consequences of the policies they promote… This may explain … why… the best and wealthiest Americans are the staunchest internationalists…” Consensus is nearly impossible. The chance of some form of civil war is now non-trivial. 

Rather than greatness, the US is transitioning to a failed First-World kleptocracy with high tariffs, unsustainable debt, budget deficits, oligarchy, corruption and societal dysfunction. For those seeking parallels, the reigns of Idi Amin in Uganda and Mobutu Sese Soku in Zaire offer helpful guides.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 21:45

A Dozen Red States Join Trump's SCOTUS Vote-By-Mail Shadow-Docket Push

The Supreme Court fight over President Trump's mail-in voting order picked up reinforcements this week: twelve Republican-led states, with Alabama at the front, filed Tuesday in support of the administration's emergency application, and the procedural clock now compresses the whole dispute into roughly the next two weeks - with the midterms 96 days out.

As we detailed Tuesday, the administration went to the high court Monday seeking to lift the injunction blocking Executive Order 14399 - the March directive ordering DHS and the Social Security Administration to compile citizenship-verified voter lists and instructing the Postal Service to restrict delivery of mail ballots to people on them - after the 1st Circuit upheld the block on Saturday in a 2-1 decision declaring that "state and local officials are responsible for administering federal elections." The new development, per SCOTUSblog's Amy Howe, is the twelve-state filing urging the justices to pause the 1st Circuit's order while litigation continues - and the argument it leads with is the one most likely to get a stay granted: a live circuit split. The states point to two recent D.C. Circuit rulings on the very same executive order, one of which, they say, "held that it is too early to challenge the EO," and the other of which reinstated the order on that same basis.

Courts Split

The 1st Circuit blocked the order across the 23 Democratic-led states (plus DC) that sued in Massachusetts, reasoning that election officials there are already diverting resources and buying ballot envelopes to comply with a directive that may be unlawful. The D.C. Circuit, looking at the same order, lifted a broader injunction against the Postal Service rule - leaving open, as CNBC noted, the possibility that USPS could implement the restrictions in the 27 states that never sued. Two appellate courts, one executive order, opposite bottom lines, an election on the calendar: that is the fact pattern emergency relief was invented for, and the red states are making sure the justices cannot miss it.

Solicitor General D. John Sauer called it "an intra-branch directive from the president to his subordinates" that of its own force changes nothing in any state, per CNN - while simultaneously warning, per The Hill's account of the application, that agencies would need to begin implementation as soon as early-to-mid August for anything to take effect by November, given state timelines for voter-roll verification and absentee ballot processing. Both things can be true, but the second one sets the real deadline: if the Court has not acted within days of receiving the states' response, the order is functionally dead for this cycle no matter who eventually wins the merits.

Looking Forward

The challengers - the California-led coalition of 23 states and DC - must respond by 4 pm Monday, August 3, to both the government's application and the twelve states' supporting request. The application lands first with Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who handles emergency matters from the 1st Circuit, though the full Court customarily votes when an administration brings the request. This is, per CNN, only the administration's third emergency appeal of the year after filing nearly 30 last year - the administration's 35th overall, by The Hill's count - a slowed cadence that makes the ones it does file read as the priorities.

Whether a president can direct federal agencies to build a national eligible-voter list and condition mail-ballot delivery on it, or whether that intrudes on election machinery the Constitution leaves to the states - will not be resolved on this timeline. What gets resolved in the next two weeks is simply whether the order operates in November, and in which states, and the answer may well arrive via a one-paragraph shadow-docket order with no reasoning attached. Ninety-six days out, with 23 states running one set of mail-ballot rules and 27 potentially running another, the map itself is becoming the story...

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 21:20

Why Americans Soured On Higher Education

Authored by Viktor Joecks via The Epoch Times,

Even colleges can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

Just 38 percent of Americans have high confidence in higher education, according to a new Gallup poll. That’s down from 57 percent in 2015. Gallup found the three main reasons for this lack of confidence are political agenda, cost and not preparing students for a future career.

This is a stunning—and much-needed—fall from grace.

Many schools and politicians spent decades pushing ever more kids into college. Sen. Bernie Sanders even sponsored the “College for All Act.” It was endorsed by numerous left-wing groups, including the American Federation of Teachers and National Education Association.

These voices assured high school students that higher education was a virtual guarantee of financial security. You’ve likely heard some version of this factoid. College graduates earn $1 million more than non-graduates during their careers.

This effort certainly convinced more people to attend college. In 1974, just under 48 percent of high school graduates attended college. That number topped 70 percent in 2009. In 2014, it was 68.4 percent.

But for many, the promised financial benefits didn’t materialize—even as tuition soared. More than 9.5 million student loan borrowers are currently in default, according to a recent AP analysis. That includes a 4.2-million-borrower jump from April 2025 to March 2026. One of the reasons for the sudden jump appears to be the end of the COVID-era payment pause. Borrowers go into default if they don’t make a payment for nine months.

Universities once introduced students to the great ideas and authors of Western Civilization. Now, many professors emphasize America’s sins, not her greatness.

Debate once flourished on college campuses. Now, colleges routinely allow students to shout down speakers who believe men aren’t women or harass Jewish students.

Further, elite universities routinely discriminate against white and Asian applicants.

Would-be students have noticed.

In 2024, college attendance was under 63 percent among high school graduates. The drop-off has been especially pronounced among male students.

A decline in college enrollment has led to a wave of college closures. In the 2013-14 school year, there were more than 7,200 postsecondary institutions accepting federal financial aid. In the 2024-25 school year, there were 5,760. That’s a 20 percent decrease.

This doesn’t mean UNLV or Stanford are on the verge of bankruptcy. Many of the closed schools were technical schools that offered certificates, not four-year degrees. But hundreds of degree-granting institutions, especially in the Northeast, have closed too. America’s declining birth rate is another daunting problem for many struggling institutions.

Now, colleges face a new challenge—students using AI to cheat. Brown University economics professor Roberto Serrano recently demonstrated how widespread this problem is. For one economics class, he let his class of 86 take home the midterm. The average score was 96 percent. In past classes, the average midterm score had been between 65 and 80 percent.

Since he suspected many of his students used AI to cheat, he changed the final to an in-class exam. Twenty-seven students either dropped the class or didn’t take the final. The average score was 48.5 percent. Two students who scored 100 percent on the midterm scored a zero on the final. The data suggested only a handful of students didn’t use AI on the midterm.

Put this all together.

College is ridiculously expensive, saddling many students with loans they’ll spend decades struggling to repay. Colleges shelter students from authors like Shakespeare and competing ideas. They practice racial discrimination in admissions. And now, students can get A’s by outsourcing their thinking to ChatGPT. Even propped up by government subsidies, that’s not a great sales pitch.

Here’s the irony. The ongoing college collapse is driven by knowledge, not ignorance.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 20:55

Cuba Crisis: Assessing The Claims Against Havana

By Patrick Pillow Via The Libertarian Institute

When President Donald Trump declared Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to US national security in a January 2026 Executive Order, the designation was accompanied by a series of sweeping claims. Among them were accusations that Cuba “provides support” to Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, that it “supports terrorism,” and that the Cuban government supports actors who “seek to destroy the United States.”

What began as a discussion over Cuban intelligence capabilities has now expanded into a much broader narrative that presents Havana as a link between America’s foreign adversaries, militant organizations, and domestic political movements. And the claims have only continued to grow.

At the center of the debate are concerns over Cuba’s intelligence facilities and potential cooperation with foreign adversaries. Commercial satellite imagery has shown development at Cuban intelligence sites, including the Bejucal facility near Havana, where analysts have identified construction consistent with expanded signals collection capabilities.

The discussion quickly shifted from the capabilities identified through satellite imagery. In May 2025, Fox News reported that Republican lawmakers were increasingly concerned that Chinese-linked facilities in Cuba could serve as a platform to “monitor U.S. military movements” and “disrupt critical communications.”

The article highlighted warnings from House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rick Crawford (R-AR) and a letter from House lawmakers Mark Green (R-TN), John Moolenaar (R-MI), Carlos Giménez (R-FL), and Sheri Biggs (R-SC), who argued that suspected Chinese-linked sites could eventually function as a “forward operating base” for electronic warfare and intelligence collection against the United States.

While such facilities could potentially enhance Cuba’s ability to monitor U.S. military and communications activity in the region, analysts have noted that there is no public “smoking gun” directly linking these sites to Chinese intelligence operations, despite repeated U.S. claims of Beijing’s involvement.

In May, Axios reported that U.S. officials believed Cuba had acquired hundreds of military drones and discussed potential drone warfare scenarios involving U.S. interests in the region, including Guantánamo Bay and possibly Key West.

Those allegations were later repeated in a White House report on Cuba’s security threat, which cited The Jerusalem Post and echoed claims of Iranian drone transfers and military consultations. Notably though, the claims rely on anonymous U.S. intelligence sources and the original Axios reporting, while neither the media reports nor the White House assessment provided publicly available evidence independently verifying the allegations.

This sequence of events brings to mind Operation Northwoods, a 1962 Joint Chiefs of Staff proposal that explored staging attacks and attributing them to Castro’s Cuba as a justification for military action. Unlike the Axios allegations, Operation Northwoods was a documented proposal and, while never carried out, showed the lengths governments would go to manufacture pretexts for military action. 

The Axios report itself included several caveats that complicated its claims. Despite the headline, “Exclusive: U.S. eyes attack-drone threat from Cuba,” the same article stated that “U.S. officials don’t believe Cuba is an imminent threat” and that “no one’s worried about fighter jets from Cuba.” Perhaps the most significant admission was that the intelligence could “become a pretext for U.S. military action.”

The timing is worth mentioning: after the administration described Cuba as a national security emergency, alleged it was assisting U.S. adversaries, and warned of potential drone threats, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana to deliver a message that cooperation was possible only after “fundamental changes,” while invoking the January operation that removed President Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela.

The allegations were immediately disputed by both Havana and Moscow. Cuban officials accused Washington of creating a “fraudulent narrative” to justify additional pressure, while Russian officials denied that Cuba had purchased hundreds of military drones from Russia and Iran.

Neither government response proves that the Axios allegations are false, but the dispute highlights an issue: the public evidence behind the most significant claims remains unavailable.

By July, the alleged drone threat had moved beyond intelligence reporting and into political advocacy. United Against Nuclear Iran displayed an Iranian Shahed-136 drone in Coral Gables, Florida, warning that Iranian military technology in Cuba could threaten the United States.

Speakers at the event, including former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Rep. Carlos Giménez, emphasized the drone’s capabilities, including its reported explosive payload and range, arguing that such systems could theoretically reach targets as far away as New York and that large-scale drone attacks could overwhelm existing defenses.

However, the exhibit demonstrated only that Iranian drone technology exists—not that the displayed drone came from Cuba, that Havana possesses Shahed-136 systems, nor that Cuba has the capability or intent to use such weapons against U.S. targets. Even coverage of the event relied on claims that “reports” indicated Iranian drones were present in Cuba, rather than presenting evidence from Cuba itself.

The narrative continued to expand with a July 20 State Department report titled Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism, which argued that “Havana had solidified its place as the ideological capital of the modern radical left.” 

The document points to figures such as Twitch streamer Hasan Piker and participants in Cuba solidarity movements as evidence of an influence network. While these individuals openly support engagement with Cuba and criticize U.S. policy, the analysis provides no evidence that they are acting as agents of the Cuban government or participating in a coordinated influence operation.

The claims also extend to domestic politics, arguing that “many of the most significant upheavals in recent American political history—from the George Floyd riots to the rise of Antifa to protests on college campuses—can be linked, in some way, shape, or form, to Cuban influence.”

Of note, the document does not provide evidence that Cuba directed, funded, or coordinated these movements. Instead, it appears to treat ideology, criticism of U.S. foreign policy, and participation in Cuba solidarity efforts as evidence of an influence network.

The report also states that China and Russia have “tripled” their intelligence personnel in Cuba since 2023. That claim traces back to a Wall Street Journal report citing unnamed officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments, rather than publicly available or declassified intelligence.

Sanctions-ravaged Cuba can barely keep the lights on, and yet it poses some grand existential threat to the US homeland?

Cuba moves to open several crisis-ravaged sectors of its economy to private firms, as the communist government tries to ease acute shortages of basic goods and services resulting from a US energy blockade. pic.twitter.com/RHBcrpTbH2

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) July 29, 2026

None of this is to say that Cuba does not pose legitimate security concerns. Havana has a history of espionage, intelligence operations, and alliances with U.S. adversaries. The question though is if this history should influence the claims now being made about Cuba.

The conclusion this document reaches goes beyond just intelligence concerns. Rather than simply describing Cuba as a hostile foreign government, it presents Havana as a network of activist groups, nonprofits, universities, and domestic political movements with an agenda. The claims presented make many allusions without providing evidence that Cuba directed, funded, or controlled these movements.

Claims this broad require clear evidence. The history of disputed intelligence assessments including Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, “yellowcake” uranium, and mobile biological weapons programs, are just a few examples where assertions were made while evidence remained lacking or fabricated.

With Havana recently rejecting the State Department report as “propaganda,” only time will tell whether the allegations presented in this document lead to a change in U.S.-Cuba policy or if it will become just another chapter in the decades-long rivalry between Washington and Havana.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 20:05

'Situational Bewareness': Star AI Investor Dumps Assets To Citadel After Massive Levered Bets Blow Up Summary:

• In echoes of Archegos chaos from 2021, Situational Awareness - a once $45BN tech fund - has been forced to liquidate its public share holdings due to margin calls from TRS

• Ken Griffin's Citadel scooped up the portfolio (at a health discount we are sure) as counterparties forced the liquidation.

• The fund is now around $10BN (all private holdings)

• Leopold - the fund manager - is getting married this weekend to Anthropic's Chief of Staff

*  *  *

Update (1500ET): Wondering who was involved? Below we highlight the holdings of Sandisk and circled bank/dealer positions (Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Jane Street, JPM, BNP, UBS, Deutsche, BofA etc.) who are all typical total return swap counterparties. 

As a reminder, they hold the physical shares; clients get the economic exposure and leverage synthetically.

*  *  *

Update (1130ET): The Wall Street Journal reports that Situational Awareness, the highflying artificial-intelligence-focused hedge-fund firm, sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's investment firm Citadel after suffering deep losses, according to people familiar with the matter.

There were other bidders for the firm's public equities book, which included large positions in AI hardware stocks such as Nebius and Sandisk.

Citadel rival Millennium and Situational Awareness investor Jane Street both put in their own offers, people familiar with the situation said.

But, 'Big Ken' saved the market again (and his own book).

According to the same 'people familiar', Situational Awareness did not sell its private portfolio of AI companies, which includes a significant stake in Anthropic.

Aschenbrenner's fiancée also works for the leading AI company.

The Dario curse:

SBF invested in Anthropic. Stake now worth billions, but fund blows up (SBF in prison)

Leopold invested in Anthropic. Stake now worth billions, but fund blows up (Leopold getting married)

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 30, 2026

From assets under management above $45 billion less than a month ago, Situational Awareness's AUM is reportedly now back below $10 billion...

Not so wunderkind after all?

Perhaps Leopold should have listened to Ken Griffin's warnings from a couple of years ago?

As @GoshawkTrades wrote on X:

A 24-year-old ex-openai researcher ran a fund to $45 billion with eight people, was up 439% net through june, and by the end of july had sold his entire public stock portfolio to ken griffin in a single block trade.

griffin described this exact failure mode two years ago, asked why portfolio managers wash out at citadel:

"you have a portfolio that is extraordinarily highly concentrated, you have large positions, you cannot demonstrate a clear and concise competitive advantage in why you own those positions."

"and there are some people that just, with full information, are unable to help themselves and get to a better portfolio construction."

he was also asked the opposite question in the same interview, why citadel keeps working, his third and final answer was this:

"it's experience. it's the price paid in losses and pain that converts into wisdom. my leadership team, we've been through a lot of very difficult moments of the markets together. we've learned some very bitter lessons. but it makes us much more effective as investors in periods of turmoil and crisis."

citadel started in november 1990. situational awareness started in 2024, long AI infrastructure and short software at roughly 4x leverage. both legs went against it in the same three weeks.

there was no bitter lesson priced into that book yet.

that's what got bought.

he wasn't wrong about AI. he was wrong about the construction of his book.

Here's Ken...

a 24-year-old ex-openai researcher ran a fund to $45 billion with eight people, was up 439% net through june, and by the end of july had sold his entire public stock portfolio to ken griffin in a single block trade.

griffin described this exact failure mode two years ago, asked… https://t.co/kVNwitYcmx pic.twitter.com/Ob7EeXIvUv

— Goshawk Trades (@GoshawkTrades) July 30, 2026

*  *  *

Update (1000ET): Situational Awareness has exited all of their public investments, CNBC’s David Faber reports on air, citing people familiar with the situation.

Faber reports that the liquidation was done “through one enormous trade."

Roughly two-thirds of the assets under management at Situational Awareness were public equities, both that he owned on the long side and that he was shorting, Faber says.

That could help explain the panic bid in Nasdaq this morning, as investors may believe the overhang from this unwind is over...

...do you really think that Leopold was the only 'smartest man in the room' that was using TRS to massively lever into momentum?

*  *  *

In 2020/2021, one fund almost single-handedly used massive amounts of leverage to drive several big media and tech stocks dramatically higher.

That fund - Archegos - run by the now infamous Bill Hwang - used Total Return Swaps (TRS) to build massive levered positions on the back of de minimus capital (and even more notably, without everyone seeing how much he really owns because these were 'off-balance-sheet' swaps).

For a while, everything was awesome.

The prime brokers were earning their interest and Archegos was making bank, Hwang was a genius, as the shares rose on the back of their own virtuous buying circle.

But then, one day in March 2021, one of his big stocks (ViacomCBS) suddenly drops a lot because the company sold more shares.

The banks came knocking for some more collateral to cover the losses (which were huge due to the leverage), but Archegos didn't have the cash (and they had been using TRS from a number of brokers - none of which knew about - creating a systemic crisis). 

The prime brokers were forced to liquidate the holdings (first one to sell wins), and the result was the escalator up in shares became an elevator down (see chart above) in a number of the names that Archegos was holding.

Since then we have had a few scares, but in general, banks have improved their risk management process (a number of risk managers were fired over Archegos).

But, the money that primes can make from the interest and the incessant momentum of the AI bubble perhaps became too much to miss out on... especially when you know other competitors are doing 'the thing'.

All of which brings us to the last month...

About six weeks ago, we raised a big red flag that something was going on as soaring funding costs suggested the banks were offering significant leverage...

Unprecedented surge in S&P funding costs by dealers lending out futures and Total Return Swaps (remember Archegos) to institutional clients. Think of it as lending costs for long positions. pic.twitter.com/x9KQu4r9MK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 15, 2026

The last few weeks have seen dramatic unwinds of a number of the highest-flying AI-related names (and the total collapse of momentum)...

Put those two things together and we smelled a TRS-Tantrum.

Overnight, we may have found the first culprit caught in this over-levered trap.

Situational Awareness, a hedge fund launched by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner that manages around $20 billion, is seeking new money after facing losses linked to declining AI stocks, the Financial Times reported.

Situational Awareness (SA) said in an investor letter dated July 24 outlining its half-year performance that it had "not been immune" to the market moves, including in Asia, but added that the dynamic had created opportunities for investment, the FT reported. The hedge fund was up 439% on a net basis this year through the end of June, the paper said. 

The fund engaged existing investors and lenders in discussions on raising capital, according to the FT, which cited unidentified people briefed on the matter.

“PS. At times we call out opportunities that seem like a particularly good time to add funds, if you have been waiting for one,” he said in the investor letter, seen by the FT, which was sent in recent days and offered the ability to invest new cash on August 1.

Some investors have been offered the option to purchase assets in its portfolio, the newspaper added.

The talks were described as ad-hoc by one of the people.

As Bloomberg reports, some of the fund’s largest holdings have slumped in recent weeks.

Shares of AI-focused cloud platform Nebius Group NV, in which the fund disclosed a multi-billion-dollar position in May, have dropped 48% from a peak last month, wiping around $35 billion from the company’s market value.

In March, Situational reported a large position in Sandisk Corp., which has fallen 56% in just over a month, and another in SharonAI Holdings Inc., which is down by a similar margin since mid-June.

Do those charts look familiar?

Look again at the PARA chart at the top - pumped and dumped by Archegos.

CNBC's David Faber reported this morning that several of the firm’s prime brokers - including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase - have been working with the fund as it seeks to meet margin requirements or reduce positions in an orderly fashion, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The brokers have been marketing a group of the firm’s holdings on both the long and short side for sale prior to today’s start of trading, according to people familiar with the situation.

These reports have been denied by the fund.

Martin Shkreli (consider the source), confirms that SA is down 50% MTD and that Goldman is liquidating...

Rumors:
SALP down more than 50% MTD
SALP was up 200% YTD and is now down more than 30%
GSCO has liquidated some SALP positions

Source: Godel News
*want to be clear we wish SALP well and hope all of our clients and non-clients do great. just reporting what we're hearing. https://t.co/zcmVNNCK94

— Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) July 29, 2026

In around 15 days, the next set of 13Fs will drop and we will discover which dealers have the most TRS exposure on their books.

As a reminder, Bill Hwang was sentenced to 18 years in prison...

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 20:00

Musk's America PAC Reportedly Plans $120 Million Midterm Blitz, Setting Stage For Renewed Left-Wing War On Elon

The New York Times reports that Elon Musk's America PAC plans to spend as much as $120 million to help Republicans in November's midterm elections, signaling that the world's richest man is preparing to reenter the political game with fewer than 100 days until voters head to the polls.

America PAC's spending surge will likely spark a coordinated opposition campaign from Democratic groups and left-wing NGOs, ranging from protests and activist pressure to sustained negative press coverage of Musk, as well as attempts to damage his brands, including Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI.

The Democrats' playbook could resemble their coordinated pressure campaign against Musk when he was involved with DOGE and the dismantling of most of USAID. This sparked street demonstrations by left-wing and far-left activist networks supported by left-wing NGOs, along with an aggressive left-leaning media campaign that sought to make him the public face of the administration's agenda.

The NYT report is based on "two people briefed on the plans," and like many stories run by left-leaning corporate media. Musk usually denies the reports on X, but if this report is correct, it says Musk authorized America PAC to build a field operation across at least eight states, targeting Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, while considering contests in North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.

America PAC is also gearing up to support House candidates in California, Wisconsin, and Washington, according to those people.

Musk's nearly $300 million bet on the 2024 campaign proved politically successful. Still, it came at a steep cost to his brands, which became targets of information warfare operations with coordinated pressure from left-wing journalists and NGO-backed activist groups.

Remember when MSM outlets ramped up stories portraying Musk as a Nazi while he was at DOGE, dismantling the left's USAID slush fund?

This is how the information operations game is played, and the ones being played were the American people.

Remember, the far-left even launched a firebomb campaign against Tesla service centers, as the left fringe rules through intimidation, violence, and terrorism.

JUST IN: Tesla firebomb attacker indicted by federal grand jury, facing 20 years in prison. pic.twitter.com/uj94L8ym6t

— Remarks (@remarks) April 1, 2025

Judging by Musk's X posts and the broader Republican Party's increasingly new messaging, the GOP appears to be converging on a single marketing platform ahead of the midterms: Democrats serve as the political vehicle for a socialist and Marxist takeover. It's that simple.

That narrative is not being manufactured from nothing. The Democratic Socialists of America's own rhetoric about dismantling the American "empire" from within gives Republican strategists a political gift in the market while establishment Democrats fret over their party fracturing in a far-left revolutionary takeover.

The emerging theme for America PAC and Republican candidates will likely focus on anti-communism, framing the election as a choice between capitalism vs. socialism, national sovereignty vs. border abolition, and law and order vs. violent crime and revolution.

DSA has effectively handed Republicans the advertising material to connect illegal alien invasion, violent crime, attacks on law enforcement, street unrest, and all other failed globalist policies under a single ideological threat narrative. That is precisely the political branding that establishment Democrats fear and are melting down over (read here & here).

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 19:40

Biden's Pardon Can't Protect Fauci From Legal Consequences

Dr. Anthony Fauci may have believed his Fifth Amendment marathon at the Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on Wednesday would shield him from prosecution, but he miscalculated.

Before he refused to answer questions from the committee, Fauci did deliver an opening statement, during which he attacked Committee Chairman Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and explained his decision not to answer any questions.

"Given Senator Paul's obvious obsession with calling for my prosecution, his repeated slanderous comments about me, and, recently, his publicly releasing my unredacted personal diary aimed at embarrassing and intimidating me, the only conclusion I can reach is that the sole reason he is calling me before this committee is to get me to say something - anything - that could vindicate his repeated public pledges that I end up, in his words, 'behind bars,'" Fauci said. "Therefore, although it pains me to do so because of the respect I have for the legislative branch of government and my decades-long record of cooperating with Congress, under the advice of my attorneys, I will invoke my right under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution to refrain from answering your questions."

And so he did, an estimated 111 times, but it won't protect him completely.

On Jan. 20, 2025, his last day in office, Biden granted Fauci a full and unconditional pardon covering any offenses he may have "committed or taken part in" tied to his government roles between Jan. 1, 2014, and Jan. 19, 2025. The broad preemptive pardon Joe Biden handed him on the way out the door covers federal charges alone, and it leaves him exposed to the state charges that may arrive sooner than his lawyers expected.

Florida wasted no time proving the point. State Attorney General James Uthmeier announced an investigation into the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) after Fauci declined to answer lawmakers' questions on Wednesday.

Fauci's lack of candor to Congress is unbelievable. My office is launching an investigation into Dr. Fauci. It's past time we get the truth of what happened during COVID.

— Attorney General James Uthmeier (@AGJamesUthmeier) July 29, 2026

This makes Uthmeier the first state attorney general to formally investigate Fauci since the pandemic, and likely not the last.

But Fauci may still face federal consequences as well. During the hearing, Sen Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) informed Fauci that the Supreme Court says that he has no Fifth Amendment privileges.

"As you very well know, as the Supreme Court has been clear for a century and more, Brown v. Walker, 1896. When he has been pardoned, he may not stand upon his privilege," Hawley explained.

To that point, Chairman Paul also revealed that Fauci's refusal to testify could result in the committee voting to hold him in contempt.

"The committee will have to consider after this hearing what appropriate action should be taken against you for the failure to testify after being directed to do so," Paul said. "It's against the law to obstruct an investigation of Congress. There will be repercussions to your refusal to testify today."

Whether Senate Republicans convert the contempt vote into an actual referral remains uncertain, and anyone who has watched congressional Republicans handle accountability fights over the past decade has earned the right to skepticism.

But, clearly, Fauci's legal troubles are not over.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 18:50

Cocaine Valued At Roughly $20 Million Seized From Truck At US Border

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Federal authorities have seized more than 1,000 pounds of cocaine from a commercial truck at a southern border entry point, estimated to be worth at least $20 million, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ).

Federal law enforcement officers seized more than half a ton of cocaine worth more than $20 million hidden in a truck at the Calexico Port of Entry in California. Courtesy of the DOJ

The drugs were hidden in the floorboards of the truck and the attached flatbed trailer, the DOJ said in a July 29 statement. The cocaine was seized at the Calexico Port of Entry, the border crossing linking California with Mexico.

This is the "second-largest cocaine seizure" made this year in the Southern District of California, the department said. The biggest single seizure for the year was recorded in May when more than 2,000 pounds of cocaine worth an estimated $45 million was confiscated.

When the truck arrived at the port of entry, officers from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and other agencies X-rayed the trailer and identified anomalies with the floorboards. After the rebar aboard the trailer was unloaded, officers lifted the wooden floor to discover the hidden drugs.

In total, 366 packages of cocaine weighing 1,002.13 pounds were seized.

The driver of the truck, Jose Manuel Lopez Lopez, 44, Mexico, was arrested by authorities and charged with illegally importing cocaine into the United States.

Lopez has pleaded not guilty. If convicted, he faces a maximum penalty of life imprisonment, with a minimum of 10 years in jail.

The amount of confiscated cocaine is a "tremendous amount of drugs, even by the standards of this district," the government said in a motion to detain the defendant, according to the DOJ.

The Epoch Times was unable to reach Lopez's legal representative for comment.

The case was investigated by the California Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) as part of Operation Take Back America.

The task force was set up following a January 2025 executive order signed by President Donald Trump, tasking it with ending the presence of criminal cartels and foreign gangs in the United States.

Operation Take Back America was established in March 2025 through a memorandum issued by then-Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. One of the operations' objectives is to establish HSTFs.

The CBP has seen a surge in drug seizures, including cocaine, according to a July 16 statement from the agency.

In June, the total amount of cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin, fentanyl, and marijuana seized nationwide was 49 percent higher than in June 2024 under the previous administration. Cocaine seizures alone rose by 71 percent in June from the previous month.

"CBP is preventing dangerous criminal aliens and illicit narcotics from entering our communities, enhancing the safety of every American for generations to come," CBP Commissioner Rodney S. Scott said in the statement.

The robust seizure numbers come amid concerns about the drug's use in the country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned in a report in August 2025 that overdose deaths involving stimulants, mainly cocaine and psychostimulants with abuse potential, "increased substantially" since 2011.

In 2011, a total of 4,681 cocaine-related overdose deaths were reported, which surged to 29,449 deaths by 2023, according to the report.

Among 309,274 overdose deaths between January 2021 and June 2024 in 49 states and Washington, D.C., 30 percent were found to involve cocaine.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 18:25

See The Hilarious AI Ads That Furious California Democrats Want Banned

Two California Democrats are moving to outlaw AI-generated campaign ads at the federal level, just days after a Republican rival for the governor's mansion used the technology to hammer their party.

Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) on Monday reintroduced the AI Ads Act, which would make it a federal violation to use artificial intelligence to impersonate candidates or committees in federal races.

This is the satire Ro Khanna and Adam Schiff want to make illegal so democrats aren't the butt of jokes.

— Charles Curran (@charliebcurran) July 30, 2026

The push comes on the heels of two AI-generated spots from GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, who went after Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrat gubernatorial nominee Xavier Becerra.

Enough Is Enough. Let's Fix California.

— Charles Curran (@charliebcurran) July 23, 2026

Of course, Hilton isn't the only one having fun with the technology. The campaign of Spencer Pratt, the reality television star turned Los Angeles mayoral candidate, made waves with his creative and side-splitting ads from Los Angeles-based director Charles Curran.

Be the Hero LA needs. Vote Spencer Pratt. pic.twitter.com/VTskAwynpB

— Charles Curran (@charliebcurran) May 20, 2026

LA is worth saving. Vote Spencer Pratt. pic.twitter.com/sQQQUjN9YY

— Charles Curran (@charliebcurran) June 1, 2026

Unsurprisingly, Schiff claims his bill isn't about politics, but about protecting against a so-called "serious threat to our democracy."

"AI-generated fraudulent advertising which uses the likeness or voices of candidates to misrepresent their positions, campaigns, or causes, or otherwise misrepresents a candidate's point of view is not only wrong - it poses a serious threat to our democracy that should concern all Americans regardless of their party," said Schiff. "Fraudulent AI advertising has already proliferated in races across the country, and if Congress does not act, this runaway challenge will only get worse as AI becomes increasingly capable of blurring the lines between fact and fiction. With November elections around the corner, time is of the essence to reign in false political advertising."

Groups that support the bill include Common Cause, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, the Campaign Legal Center, Protect Democracy and Public Citizen, according to the New York Post.

"AI will transform our lives and our society in many ways, but it can't be used to mislead voters or undermine our democracy. I'm proud to lead the AI Ads Act with Senator Schiff to ban AI-generated content that deceives the public about candidates or elections," Khanna said in a statement.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 18:00

Federal Judge Rules Race-Based Portion Of Houston Program Unconstitutional

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Tuesday permanently barred the city of Houston from enforcing the race-based parts of a program that includes numerical goals for awarding public contracts to minority-owned businesses, ruling that doing so is in violation of the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.

A judge's gavel, in this file photo. Andrew Kelly/Reuters

U.S. District Judge David Hittner described his decision as the first to extend the U.S. Supreme Court's 2023 ruling against race-conscious college admissions to municipal public contracting programs. He found Houston could not justify treating businesses differently due to the race of their owners.

"The public interest favors a permanent injunction because there is no public interest in permitting the government to continue enforcing an unconstitutional race-based policy," Hittner wrote in his findings of fact and conclusions of law.

Landscape Consultants of Texas Inc. and Metropolitan Landscape Management Inc., two Spring-based landscaping firms owned by Jerry and Theresa Thompson, a white married couple, filed the original lawsuit in September 2023. They were represented by Pacific Legal Foundation. In their filing, they argued Houston's Minority, Women, and Small Business Enterprise Program, as well as a similar policy at the Midtown Management District, precluded them from opportunities due to their race.

"Equal protection means equal protection for everyone, not preferential treatment for some," Erin Wilcox, a lawyer for the plaintiffs at the Pacific Legal Foundation, said in a statement. "The Fourteenth Amendment guarantees every business owner the same shot at a government contract, regardless of race."

Houston City Attorney Arturo Michel said the city may appeal.

"The city will abide by the court's decision regarding existing contracts and recently awarded contracts pending any further court order," Michel said.

The program requires the city to establish annual goals for contracts going to minority-owned businesses. It also allows departments to impose contract-specific goals.

Non-minority firms were often required to subcontract a percentage of work to certified minority-owned businesses even if they had no operational need to subcontract. Minority-owned firms could fulfill the requirement with their own workers.

Hittner held a four-day bench trial in December 2025, ultimately concluding that under the Supreme Court's framework in Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. Harvard, government may use race only to remedy specific, identified past discrimination.

"Houston is required to identify concrete, particularized discrimination and demonstrate that its use of race is necessary to remedy that discrimination," Hittner said. "Houston has not done so."

Hittner noted the city's own expert witness testified that a 2024 disparity study commissioned by the city identified no specific instances of intentional discrimination by Houston officials or employees in recent years. The city had not disciplined anyone for contracting discrimination in the previous five years and found no particular constitutional or statutory violations.

Hittner limited the injunction to the race-conscious guidelines. Preferences based on gender or small-business status were not struck down. The order also applies to the Midtown Management District's parallel policy.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 17:40

Apple Tumbles On China, Service Revenue Miss

The Thursday rebound in the Nasdaq 100 - largely on the coattails of Microsoft and the expectations that further liquidations by that 25 year old Leopold guy are over - has been powerful, though much of the urgency has come from the same high-beta corners punished hardest during the semiconductor rout. That helps stabilize the tape, but it doesn’t resolve concerns around capex spend or Chinese chip capabilities. Amazon speaks directly to the hyperscaler debate through AWS and spending plans. And while Apple is not at the center of concerns about hyperscaler spreads, at nearly $5 trillion in market cap, its results carry enough weight to shape sentiment across a market short on conviction.

Consensus looks for Apple revenue growth of roughly 16% to nearly $109 billion, with the iPhone cycle and services doing the heavy lifting. The broader read-through is whether consumer demand remains firm, whether margins can absorb tariff and chip-cost pressure, and whether one of the world’s largest companies can still generate enough growth to support the premium embedded across mega-cap tech. A set of strong reports would give the rebound something more credible than short covering, even if it leaves the sector’s structural concerns intact.

There’s also some ceremony to the moment. Tim Cook’s final earnings call closes an extraordinary chapter before John Ternus takes the baton, but as Bloomberg's Brendan Fagan notes, nostalgia will not carry the stock or the broader sentiment. 

With that in mind, here is what Apple reported for the recently concluded June 30 (fiscal Q3) quarter:

• EPS $2.02 vs. $1.57 y/y, beating estimates of $1.89
• Revenue $109.42 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimates of $108.85 billion
  • Products revenue $78.68 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimate $77.25 billion
  • IPhone revenue $54.25 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimate $53.6 billion
  • Mac revenue $10.35 billion, +29% y/y, beating estimate $8.62 billion
  • IPad revenue $6.19 billion, -5.9% y/y, missing estimate $6.89 billion
  • Wearables, home and accessories $7.88 billion, +6.5% y/y, beating estimate $7.87 billion
• Services revenue $30.74 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimate $31.36 billion

Broken down by product:

... we see that Apple is in desperate need of a new revenue stream: even Services is now rolling over while the rest is a melting ice cube mess, and once AAPL's price hikes kick in, sales will crater. 

Mac sales beat expectations as pent up demand for the M5 MacBook Air, M5 Pro/Max MacBook Pro and of course the hot-selling MacBook Neo, should resulted in a big beat. The question is what is the margin on these products now that their components as much, much more expensive. 

Yet one place where revenue unexpectedly missed was Apple's heretofore Golden calf, namely Services, which unexpectedly came light by almost $1 billion to estimates, rising just 12% to $30.74 billion, and missing estimate $31.36 billion. Since this is the highest margin product line, any slowdown here will set off alarm bells for the bulls. 

Taking a closer look at the Geographic breakdown, China stood out because after several quarters of solid growth (after several years of disappointment) revenues missed again (along with Japan this time):

• Greater China rev. $18.82 billion, +22% y/y, missing estimate $19.58 billion
• Americas rev. $45.78 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $45.42 billion
• Europe revenue $29.40 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimate $27.58 billion
• Japan revenue $6.55 billion, +13% y/y, missing estimate $7.49 billion
• Rest of Asia Pacific revenue $8.87 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate $8.71 billion

Here results were a mirror image of last quarter, when the US missed but was more than offset by Chinese sales; this time it's China (and Japan) that missed, in what appears to be another major slowdown in Chinese sales growth. 

Putting it all together, it appears that the stock which in recent weeks was priced to perfection - and as a FCF positive substitute to the rest of the AI complex - is getting hit on the Service revenue and China miss. As Bloomberg puts it, "though total revenue topped estimates, the China sales amounted to $18.8 billion in the fiscal third quarter, well short of the $19.6 billion estimated by analysts. Revenue from services was $30.7 billion, compared with a $31.4 billion projection."

Apple’s progress in China has been closely watched by investors and analysts as it recovers from a downturn in that country. The company is still growing in the market, but hasn’t bounced back as quickly as some were looking for, and as shown above, the growth rate is rapidly slowing... again.  

Apple also has been struggling with shortages of memory chips and computer processors, a situation that forced the company to raise prices on Macs and iPads last month. The supply crunch has led to extended wait times on key computers like the Mac mini and Mac Studio. Once the new iPhone hits the street with a price some 20% higher, watch for total sales to tumble. 

Elsewhere, this quarter serves as a swan song of sorts for CEO Tim Cook, who will hand the reins to hardware head John Ternus on Sept. 1. Cook, Apple’s leader since 2011, diversified the product lineup and increased annual sales to nearly half a trillion dollars. 

AAPL stock had been up 23% this year heading into the results, outpacing many tech peers. Apple reclaimed its title as the world’s most valuable company in recent days - overtaking Nvidia -  in part because it’s seen as a safe haven from runaway AI spending. The company has a current market value of almost $5 trillion, although it is now again below that after the slide after hours.

The company also is making some changes to how it offers products. On Tuesday, it rolled out a device leasing program called Apple Upgrade, allowing users to essentially subscribe to iPhones, iPads and Macs and trade them in at the end of their lease terms. The program, which resembles car leasing, will likely mitigate the recent price increases for many buyers.

Apple stock slumped more than 4% in after hours action, offsetting some of the surge in Amazon stock.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 17:25

'We Won Completely': Weinstein Says COVID 'Conspiracy Theorists' Were Totally Vindicated

Not so long ago, everything below was a bannable offense - usually based on the vapid logic of some 24-year-old "trust & safety" associate. In a clip circulating Thursday, evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein takes stock of what the dissidents actually won for their trouble, Vigilant Fox reports.

WEINSTEIN: "We live in two worlds simultaneously at the moment. I remember conversations that I had with people I cared deeply about at the beginning of COVID right as the lab leak story was beginning to crack."

Bret Weinstein explains how the COVID conspiracy theorists were proven right about everything and it doesn't matter.

WEINSTEIN: "We live in two worlds simultaneously at the moment. I remember conversations that I had with people I cared deeply about at the beginning of COVID... pic.twitter.com/DFyBy6i2DH

— The Vigilant Fox (@VigilantFox) July 30, 2026

"What I saw was, actually, I think we're going to win the lab leak story. We're not yet winning the vaccine story, and we're way behind on the repurposed drug story.

"In 2026, here's what we see. We actually won. Completely. All of these things are now visible to anybody who wishes to see them.

Yet, while hearts and minds were won and 'conspiracy theorists' vindicated, we have a limp dicked government that won't hold anyone's feet to the fire. 

"And we've lost completely. Our capacity to do anything about this is now on full display. We have none."

"Your ability to simply get the story clear enough and enough evidence on the table does not have an impact on what happens next.

"We're still apparently dispensing these frickin shots. How crazy is that? Right after all that we have unearthed, after all the people who lost their careers to unearth this stuff, they're still dispensing the frickin shots."

WEINSTEIN: "We need to figure out now how to talk to the people who actually have goodness in their hearts, but are still so desperately confused.

"You have to figure out how to approach them with enough generosity of spirit that you can get them over the line to just seeing. You can get them to take off the blindfold."

h/t Modernity.news

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 17:20

House Democrats Expand Midterm 'Red To Blue' Target Map To 30 Seats

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added five more seats to its Red to Blue program on July 28, and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) responded the same day with a separate statement criticizing each of the five Democratic candidates.

The U.S. Capitol on June 16, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The expansion brings the program to 30 seats. Red to Blue candidates receive strategic guidance, staff resources, training, and fundraising support from the committee, according to the DCCC’s announcement. The committee said candidates qualify by surpassing goals for grassroots engagement, local support, campaign organization, and fundraising.

“In less than 100 days, Democrats will take back the House majority and it will be powered by our incredible candidates such as the five named to Red to Blue today,” DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) said in the release.

“Whether in suburban, rural, or redistricted seats, the American people have soured on Republicans’ broken promises and failure to lower costs. Voters are outraged by higher prices on everything and a war of choice spiraling out of control. They are eager for change and new leaders who will fight for them, not be a rubberstamp for Donald Trump.”

The five are Amish Shah in Arizona’s First District, Pia Dandiya in Florida’s 22nd, Lindsay James in Iowa’s Second District, Jake Johnson in Minnesota’s First, and Sam Forstag in Montana’s First.

The DCCC described Shah as an emergency room physician and former state representative who has already represented part of the district in the Arizona House.

Dandiya is a former teacher and high school principal from Palm Beach County. Both parties hold their Florida primaries on Aug. 18. Dandiya faces a contested Democratic field, with a challenge from Kaysia Earley. The DCCC’s endorsement puts the committee behind her before the election.

Florida’s 22nd District is currently held by Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), who is running in the new 23rd District this fall following redistricting.

James is a Presbyterian minister, former chaplain, and Iowa state representative running for an open seat against Republican Joe Mitchell, whom the DCCC release called a career politician and lobbyist.

Johnson is a public school math teacher and union leader challenging Rep. Brad Finstad (R-Minn.).

Forstag is a U.S. Forest Service smokejumper and vice president of National Federation of Federal Employees Local 60, running for the seat Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) is leaving.

The DCCC release said Forstag organized against staffing cuts at public land agencies and described Republican nominee Aaron Flint as Zinke’s hand-picked successor.

The NRCC issued five statements within hours, one for each candidate. The statements largely characterized the candidates as too liberal for their districts.

NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen noted for the Arizona race that the DCCC backed Shah’s opponent in the primary and that Republicans there are consolidating behind nominee Jay Feely. The DCCC did back Shah’s opponent in the Arizona primary but later endorsed Shah after he won.

NRCC spokeswoman Emily Tuttle referenced a Fox News report that James missed more than half of her votes in the Iowa House over the past year. Her campaign responded to that report at the time in a statement saying, “Lindsay has always fought for Iowa families, taking on corporate greed and predatory landlords and writing the bill to cap the cost of insulin.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 17:00

Bank Of Japan Confirms Yen Intervention, Fed Conducted 'Rate Check'

Update (1645ET): Nikkei reports that market participants learned that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market by buying yen and selling dollars.

Additionally, Nikkei confirmed that the US monetary authorities conducted a "rate check," a preliminary step before intervention.

This indicates that Japan and the US worked together to curb the yen's depreciation.

*  *  *

Having collapsed to its weakest relative to the dollar in 40 years, it appears the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan has had enough and intervened.

Having tagged 164/USD, the Japanese currency suddenly exploded stronger (below 160/USD, which was the prior level of intervention)...

The scale of the move is commensurate with the last large intervention in April.

Obviously, there is no confirmation, yet, but the timing, coming after the Fed and after Japan markets have closed, would certainly fit what we know about the MoF’s tactics, and that’s why there’s renewed speculation over official action. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 16:45

Amazon Jumps On Solid AWS Growth And Profit, Even As Outlook Disappoints And Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

As Bloomberg notes, "Microsoft’s solid earnings breathed new life into the tech sector Thursday, but Amazon’s report after the bell this evening could deflate the optimism again." To be sure, there’s a lot riding on Amazon results. The longevity of the AI spending boom is in doubt as shareholders punish ambitious capex plans, which has taken away some of the support away from the chipmaker stocks. 

Before Microsoft’s earnings, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had fallen 27% this month. It bounced more than 7% Thursday. Chipmaker Sandisk rose 23%, Micron and Microsoft itself both climbed more than 16%. The Seattle-based software giant announced better-than-expected results, emphasized its clear roadmap to AI monetization and refrained from increasing its capex plans. Amazon is going to have to produce something pretty special to keep the party going.  

In terms of expectations, analysts expect Amazon profits to rise 8.8% from a year earlier, based on revenue growth of 17.5%. Free cash flow is expected to come in negative for a second straight quarter. Revenue in the key Amazon Web Services business is expected to grow 31% from a year earlier to $40.6 billion.

While free cash flow for the AI hyperscalers as a group is expected to turn negative, for Amazon, it’s seen fluctuating, dipping below zero before recovering. Amazon was an early starter in the world of cloud computing. That has sometimes looked like a disadvantage. It’s among the cheapest of the big tech stocks, trading at a price to blended forward earnings ratio that’s 1.6 standard deviations below the 10-year average. Nevertheless, as Bloomberg's Sebastian Boyd writes, the tone from analysts has been largely positive. Estimates have been revised slightly higher, and climbed to $1.83 from $1.8 at the end of April. 

With all that in mind, this is what Amazon just reported for the recently concluded Q2:

• EPS of $5.75, beating exp of $1.81 (including a one-time profit on its holdings in Anthropic)

Revenue was stronger across the board (except for another modest miss in the small physical store sales category, and a new miss in subscription services).

• Net sales $200.61 billion, beating estimates of $197.01 billion
• Online stores net sales $70.43 billion, beating estimates of $69.92 billion
• Physical Stores net sales $5.79 billion, missing estimate $5.87 billion
• Third-Party Seller Services net sales $46.78 billion, beating estimates of $46.15 billion
• Subscription Services net sales $13.73 billion, missing estimates of $13.75 billion
• Advertising services net sales $19.81 billion, beating estimates of $19.32 billion

However, the most important revenue item, AWS, smashed smashed the sellside estimate...

• AWS net sales $42.23 billion, beating estimates of $40.57 billion, and rising a whopping 37%, the fastest pace of growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. 

Geographically the results were focused on North America beating again by more than $2 billion, even as international was a modest miss:

• North America net sales $116.18 billion, estimate $113.94 billion
• International net sales $42.20 billion, estimate $42.71 billion

Going down the line: 

• Operating income $27.46 billion, beating estimate $23.61 billion
• Operating margin 13.7%, beating estimate 12%
• North America operating margin +7.9%, beating estimate +7.48%
• International operating margin 4.1%, beating estimate 3.76%
• Fulfillment expense $29.63 billion, below the estimate $29.79 billion
• Seller unit mix 61%, beating estimates of 60.2%

While AWS sales growth was solid, just as impressive was the the margin for the segment also increased from 37.68% to 39.36%, just shy of the highest on record, and again beating the median Wall Street estimate of 33.52%. Elsewhere, North American profit unexpectedly jumped to $9.123 billion, resulting in a profit margin of 7.83%, down from 7.94% a quarter ago, while international margins rose to 4.07% from 3.58%, the highest since Q2 2025.

As a result of the rise in AWS profits, and generally solid sales margins, Amazon's consolidated operating margin posted a notable jump and in Q1 increased 9.7% to 11.7%, just shy of an all time high. 

Looking ahead, the company's guidance was unexpectedly weak: 

• Net sales for Q3 are expected to be between $197 billion and $202 billion; the midpoint of $197.5 billion was a big miss compared to the median estimate of $203.93 billion.
• Operating income for Q3 is expected between $22.0 billion to $26.40 billion, the midpoint also falling below the estimate of $25.07

The projected 10.7% revenue growth was the lowest since March 2025.

And while we wait to get some sense of what happened to AMZNs capex guidance, and whether it was revised higher again, here is a less than flattering view of the company's free cash flow: the company's LTM free cash flow plunged to $7.6 billion negative for the trailing twelve months, vs $18.2 billion for the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2025.

And so, to fund its impressive AWS growth, where competition is becoming more fierce by the day, AMZN will need to issue stock or issue much more new debt to fund further capex growth. Indicatively, AMZN's debt soared to $129 billion in Q2, doubling from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025.

Amazon reported spending more than $53 billion on capex, including proceeds from some sales, in the period ended June 30. The company has said it expects to spend $200 billion — a 56% increase from 2025 — mostly on data centers, including those customized for AI services, prompting investors to focus on any signs of overspending.

After all that, AMZN shares were sharply higher this time - unlike last quarter - up about 8% higher largely on the AWS revenue growth and margin, as the market ignores the negative free cash flow... for now. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 16:40

US Intel Chiefs Back Trump's Claim China Interfered In American Elections

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The heads of four U.S. intelligence and national security agencies have backed key elements of President Donald Trump’s claim that China engaged in election interference by targeting American voter-registration data.

A fact sheet released July 30 by the White House Government Transparency Task Force says China and its proxies bought, stole, or hacked voter data belonging to as many as 220 million Americans, including some information that was not publicly available.

The fact sheet pairs that finding with the intelligence community’s official definition of election interference, which includes a foreign power’s targeting of voter data.

It notes that, for a foreign country’s actions to amount to “election interference,” they do not have to change the actual results.

“That definition includes a foreign power’s targeting of voter registration infrastructure or data,” the task force states, citing declassified documents produced by the U.S. intelligence community.

The fact sheet was approved by the heads of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the Department of Homeland Security, according to the White House.

Representatives from those agencies—as well as the Federal Bureau of Investigation—also coordinated with the White House before Trump’s July 16 address and “approved the factual statements” drawn from intelligence documents used in the speech, the task force states.

Election Interference Defined

In his speech, Trump said China has long been meddling in U.S. elections, including that it was “working to influence” the results of the 2020 presidential election, in which President Joe Biden was ultimately declared the winner.

Trump did not explicitly claim that China managed to change the 2020 result, and neither did the heads of U.S. intelligence agencies.

The spy chiefs did say in the fact sheet that voter-registration data is itself part of election infrastructure and could be manipulated in ways that affect election results, for instance by preventing groups of voters from casting their ballots.

“Adversaries could alter data to potentially prevent individual voters or groups of voters from voting, causing delays on election day or forcing voters to use provisional ballots,” the task force states, citing intelligence community documents.

A voter walks to a polling place in Milwaukee, Wis., on July 28, 2026. Nam Y. Huh/AP

“Adversaries could also use the registration data which in some cases is also available publicly or for purchase—to tailor other interference or influence efforts,” it adds.

Election interference “is a subset of election influence targeted at the technical aspects of the election, including voter registration, casting and counting of ballots, and reporting of results,” according to the task force.

The release of the fact sheet marks the clearest institutional backing yet for central parts of Trump’s allegations, which were challenged by some Democrats who cited an earlier intelligence assessment that China did not interfere in the 2020 election.

Trump Orders Investigation

During his July 16 address, Trump described China’s acquisition of the voter data as “the largest compromise of election data in history” and an “unprecedented election security nightmare.”

Trump said U.S. intelligence had found that “China was working to influence the results of the U.S. midterm elections, and later the results of the 2020 presidential election itself.”

He also said U.S. intelligence agencies began learning in 2020 that China had bought, stolen, or hacked tens of millions of voter records across 18 states but that some officials withheld or downplayed the information.

Trump directed the Department of Justice, CIA, FBI, and ODNI to investigate why the intelligence was withheld and, where appropriate, to seek criminal charges.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, accused Trump of using the disclosures to influence the approaching midterm elections. Warner cited the intelligence community’s previous assessment that China did not attempt to interfere in the 2020 election.

“China is a serious strategic competitor, and it absolutely seeks to advance its interests at America’s expense,” Warner said.

“The Intelligence Community … concluded that China considered—but ultimately did not deploy—an influence campaign intended to affect the outcome of the 2020 election, and that no foreign government altered vote totals, hacked voting machines, or compromised the integrity of our election infrastructure,” he added.

Trump, in his speech, called the U.S. election system “so broken and so vulnerable that no one can possibly defend it.”

“It is not defensible,” Trump said.

The president also said that many previously classified documents spanning from January 2020 to June 2026 that support his claims would be declassified and released to the public.

“This is a cyber threat aimed at the very heart of our democracy,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/30/2026 - 16:20