Zero Rss

Oil Soars To Six-Week Highs Amid Trump Threats, US Production Dip, & 'Tank Bottoms' At Cushing

Oil prices extended their rise this morning to six week highs as fighting between the US and Iran continued around the Persian Gulf (11th straight night of attacks) and threats of a blockade in the Red Sea added to growing uncertainty about the flow of energy from the region.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that U.S. forces would continue to attack Iran as long as it tried to exercise control over shipping traffic, which has dwindled in recent weeks.

Yesterday, President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth threatened to deepen the war effort, including by potentially targeting the Houthis.

Trump further threatened the Iranians this morning, saying on his social media network that if the country attacks any ship in the Strait of Hormuz, “the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.”

WTI is back at six-week highs, dragging bond yields higher and seemingly wearing on stocks too. Overnight saw API report an unexpected build in crude but an 'expected' draw in gasoline stocks.

API

• Crude +2.6mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline -1.38mm

• Distillates +1.76mm

DOE

• Crude +2.01mm (-500k exp)

• Cushing -674k

• Gasoline +765k

• Distillates +1.395mm

Crude stocks rose (in line with API's report) but Gasoline stocks rose (against API's reported draw)...

Stocks at the all-important Cushing hub fell again last week, unable to recover from 'tank bottoms'...

Interestingly, crude oil releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve re-accelerated last week...

Despite the ongoing rise in the rig count, US crude production dipped last week from record highs...

Next week’s EIA data may be more volatile depending on how hard Tropical Storm Bertha will impact the Gulf Coast. The storm could disrupt port operations and data on imports and exports. Bad weather could also make a dent on fuel demand on the East Coast. 

Crude imports from the Middle East remained at zero for a third week in the seven days to June 17. A couple of ships hauling Saudi crude to the US managed to leave the Persian Gulf during the brief opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But the waterway’s effective closure and the simultaneous threats to ships in the southern Red Sea will likely make further deliveries scarce.

WTI is holding around $88 at six-week highs...

The conflict is widening at a vulnerable time for energy markets.

Oil stockpiles are smaller than they were when U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began at the end of February, and Ukrainian attacks have severely damaged Russian refineries, tightening supplies of transportation fuels like diesel and prompting Goldman Sachs to raise a red flag about the potential for $120 Brent if things continue to escalate...

...and worse still, gas prices may go higher...

The $4 threshold is both economically and politically sensitive, as it is where lower-income consumers typically begin cutting discretionary purchases and trading down across gas stations, convenience stores and quick-service restaurants, further weighing on consumer sentiment... and Trump's approval ratings.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 10:40

The Money Printers Fueling Socialism's Rise

Authored by David Stockman via the Brownstone Institute,

Here's a graph the Keynesians, statists, and Wall Street gamblers - yes, we repeat ourselves - would prefer not to explain. At the same time, it also explains why socialism at this late date in history - and after all its abysmal failures the world over - is having some kind of dubious second coming in America.

During the last three decades the national savings rate (red line) has essentially collapsed, having fallen from 6.3% of GDP in 1997 to 0.5% of GDP in 2025. Between the same two dates, however, the net worth of US households (blue line) has soared from 4.6X personal income to 6.5X personal income.

In economist jargon, the question would recur as follows: How in the world over a three-decade period did the stock of wealth soar when the flows of savings virtually evaporated?

Or in plain English, how did so many Americans get so damn rich while living high on the hog? And we do mean wealthy: According to the Fed's Flow of Funds data, household net worth erupted from $32 trillion in 1997 to $169 trillion at present. These figures amount to an average of $320,000 per household in 1997, which grew to an average of $1.250 million per household 28 years later.

Needless to say, some substantial part of that gain is reflective of inflation. But even in constant 2025 dollars, average net worth per household has virtually doubled from about $630,000 to the aforementioned $1.250 million.

In short, the average savings per household diminished to nearly zero over that three-decade period - even as $85 trillion in added wealth accumulated in household balance sheets.

Household Net Worth % Of Personal Income Versus Net National Savings Rate, 1997 to 2025

As it happened, of course, the massive $136.4 trillion increase in net worth over this period went to the holders of financial and housing assets, less associated debts. Accordingly, with a lot of debt at the bottom income rungs relative to modest asset levels, the resulting wealth distribution skewed sharply to the tippy-top of the economic ladder.

To wit, $44.1 trillion of the gain was accounted for by the top 1% of households and fully $94.2 trillion by the top 10%. And while Keynesians, statists, and stockbrokers would have you believe this was nothing more than Mr. Market at work, we beg to differ.

Under a regime of sound money and honest markets there would have been no soaring gains in net worth relative to the very modest gains in national income and savings. To the contrary, the former is the work of the money-printers at the central bank and the Cantillon Effect of monetary inflation.

That is to say, when the Fed prints money it effectively first deposits the receipts among the primary bond dealers, which sell government bonds to its open market desk and then send the proceeds ricocheting through the canyons of Wall Street. At length, the inflation gets to Main Street in the form of higher energy, food, and other everyday prices, but not before much of the inflation is absorbed by the leveraged gamblers on Wall Street.

So there is no mystery as to why the wealth distribution in America has been skewed sharply to the top of the ladder during recent years. The culprit was not the Reagan tax cuts back in the 1980s or the inherent inequality of capitalism.

To the contrary, the normal skew of wealth to the most productive, capable, persistent, and enterprising households has been badly thrown out of kilter by the capture of the Federal Reserve by Wall Street speculators.

In the interim, however, the chart below speaks for itself. By embracing Greenspan-style monetary central planning in lieu of gold standard sound money, the modern day GOP has paved the way for the emerging Mamdani socialist coup in the Democrat Party.

That is to say, the wealth disparities shown below did not exist with nearly this much skew as recently as 1987, when Alan Greenspan's pro-inflation, pro-wealth effects regime became official policy at the Fed. Then again, the Fed's balance sheet stood at $250 billion in Q2 1987 after 73 years of a moderately tame printing press, which footings then ballooned to nearly $9 trillion by the peak in Q1 2022.

Yes, flood the free market with $8.75 trillion of fiat credits in barely 25 years, and you will indeed get a rip-roaring financial asset inflation. And you will also get a rekindling of socialist economics, which should have been finally left for dead by 1984.

Let's start with the axiomatic. Redistribution of wealth from rich to poor is none of the state's business. Full stop. At the same time, however, it's an equally grave sin for agencies of the state to artificially tilt the scales on behalf of the already rich. Yet that is unmistakably the consequence of Keynesian monetary policy as it has been practiced and amplified since the arrival of Alan Greenspan at the Fed in August 1987.

In this context, there is no reason to believe that the wealthy were getting shortchanged on the net worth front after the Morning in America boom of the mid-1980s. Yet as is evident in the graph below, the gap between the very rich and the bottom 50% of households has been relentlessly expanding since Greenspan bailed out Wall Street gamblers the first time after Black Monday in October 1987.

The net worth of the top 0.1% of households back then stood at $1.757 trillion, which was 2.4X the $718 billion net worth of the bottom 50% of US households. In unit terms, that amounted to an average net worth of $15,460 among the bottom 50% of households, which compared to $18.892 million for the top 0.1% of households.

Call this the status quo ante and there was no reason to find it objectionable. Mr. Market at work, as it were.

Fast forward to 2025, however, and the wealth distribution is far, far more skewed. The net worth of the top 0.1% or 135,000 ultra-wealthy US households now stood at $25.072 trillion, which compared to aggregated net worth of $4.266 trillion among the 67.4 million households in the bottom 50%.

That is to say, the gap had widened from 2.4X in 1989 to 5.9X by 2025. And this widening was even more dramatic when expressed in per household terms, where net worth now stood at $185.7 million each among the top 0.1% of households compared to $63,300 for the bottom 50%.

The truth is, there is absolutely no reason to believe that under a regime of sound money and honest financial markets that the gap between the tippy-top and bottom half of American households would have doubled during that interval. Not even remotely for the reasons we amplify below.

To the contrary, what we have is the Cantillon Effect: The inflationary emissions from the Eccles Building stick to the walls earlier and more completely on Wall Street and among financial asset holders before they eventually wend their way into the incomes and spending levels of the Main Street population.

There is no mystery, however, as to how the central banking branch of the state managed to double the wealth gap between the ultra-rich and the bottom 50% of US households in barely 37 years. Keynesian central banking has just a single policy instrument and it inherently makes the asset rich richer.

It can be succinctly described as systematic falsification of the price of debt or what economists are pleased to call "financial repression." It is axiomatic, in fact, that when bond yields are artificially pushed lower, asset prices get jacked higher - even as leveraged speculation becomes even more rewarding as a matter of sheer arithmetic.

So what you have is a central bank-enabled double-whammy for the age-old carry trade: Through massive bond-buying, pegging of overnight money market rates, and open-mouth steering of price action on Wall Street, the Fed artificially boosts the asset side of the ledger - even as the carry cost of highly leveraged ownership of these appreciating assets falls increasingly below risk-based free market rates.

That is to say, the reason the net worth of the top 0.1% rose by 14.3X - from $1.757 trillion to $25.072 trillion - over a 36-year period in which the national income (GDP) rose by only 5.6X is this: Owing to a lot of help from their friends in the Eccles Building wealthy asset holders have been shooting fish in a barrel for the better part of three decades.

This has manifested itself, of course, in the relentless rise of PE multiples since the 1970s. Indeed, the S&P 500 traded at about 11X trailing GAAP earnings in the late 1970s, which multiple has climbed steadily on a rolling three-year trend basis to nearly 30X at present (dotted red least squares trend).

Then again, the logical direction of the trend line above would be the opposite - from the upper left to the lower right. That's because the underlying performance trend of the US economy has sharply deteriorated over the past four decades.

Thus, the trend of the three-year rolling average of real GDP has been moving decisively counter to the upward trend of valuation multiples. From a trend rate of 3.5% per annum in the late 1970s the real GDP growth trend has marched downhill for 40 years, currently posting at barely 2.0% per annum.

To be sure, in shorter intervals the profits share of GDP can fluctuate and potentially trend higher. But over time the real economy has to expand in order for business activity and the profit offtake from it to rise, as well.

Alas, the valuation multiple trend above is just plain not compatible in economic terms with the steadily falling rate of US economic performance depicted below. Somebody had their big fat thumbs on the scale, and that was the debt-enabling money-printers at the nation's central bank.

Yes, it is that simple. Like the case of the Wizard of Oz, the only thing behind the screens at the Eccles Building is the stimulation of debt, more debt, and still even more debt. And the reason remains the tattered Great Depression-era fallacy that times were hard because consumers and businesses suddenly lost their nerve and their minds, apparently, and refused to spend enough on consumer goods and capital goods to keep the macr0 economy on an expansionary path.

So economic policy-makers ever since, and one way or another through a variety of fiscal and monetary "stimulus" expedients, have sought to goose spending by fostering cheaper and more abundant debt than the free market would generate on its own steam.

This cardinal (Keynesian) error of modern economic policy has had a Brobdingnagian impact on financial markets and the Main Street economy alike.

That's because the other key line on the graph also has been chugging relentlessly uphill - most especially after Nixon shit-canned sound gold-backed money at Camp David in August 1971. We are referring to the trend of the national leverage ratio, which is depicted by the least squares line (dotted red line) in the graph below. It could not be more dispositive.

From a historic ratio of below 1.5X national income in 1955, total public and private debt outstanding now sits at an aberrant and unprecedented 3.5X national income.

Those two turns of extra debt tell you everything you need to know about today's massive central bank-fostered financial bubbles. At the historically stable and prosperity-compatible 1.5X ratio to national income, combined public and private debt outstanding today would total just $48 trillion.

As it happens, of course, that figure was actually $116 trillion at the end of Q1 2026. What we have, therefore, is an extra $70 trillion of debt freighting down the US economy at a level never before even imagined. In turn, this comprises the flood of mispriced debt that sent Wall Street into a relentless frenzy of leveraged speculation.

From endless basis trades to triple-leveraged ETFs and every manner of inherently leveraged options trading schemes, Wall Street has driven financial asset prices ever higher. But these pyramids of speculation and debt are not based on sustainable value-added and real economic output - they are the fetid fruit of the central bank printing presses.

Here's the skunk on the woodpile, however. None of the massive buildup of leverage and $70 trillion of extra debt depicted above was necessary for prosperity. It made the wealthy unspeakably rich - perhaps symbolized by trillionaire Elon Musk - but it was built on the so-called "Greenspan wealth effect" doctrine, surely the greatest economic policy error of modern times.

And now it threatens the very basis of American democracy, as well. That's because it is generating such egregious wealth disparities as to actually revive what had been the dead-as-a-doornail carcass of socialism at the turn of the century.

Using the 1955 Golden Era's ratio of total public and private debt to national income (GDP) at 1.4X, here is the buildup of the current $70 trillion of excess debt now hanging like a financial sword of Damocles over the financial markets and US economy.

Indeed, this data makes clear that the main thing being cooked up behind the screen by the monetary wizards at the Eccles Building - especially since Greenspan's arrival - was the false elixir of debt, more debt, and still even more debt. After all, during the 70 years after 1955 total US public and private debt outstanding rose by a staggering 190X, from $600 billion to $113.6 trillion.

And, yes, there was a fair amount of economic growth and an even more fulsome inflation of the price level during that seven-decade interval. But, still, the debt growth far outpaced both of these macr0 drivers, thereby causing the national leverage ratio - or ratio of total public and private debt to nominal GDP - to rise from 141% in 1955 to 370% at present.

In a word, the legacy of activist central banking since the mid-1960s has been the saddling of American free enterprise with what amounts to a rolling and perpetual national LBO. And like in all leveraged buyouts, it is the existing shareholders who get the loot, not the workers, businessmen, and consumers who subsequently labor under its crushing burden of debt.

Moreover, unlike standard LBOs where sponsors claim - and sometimes do - enhance returns by steady debt paydowns, the Fed's national LBO has worked in only one direction: Namely, toward ever higher national leverage ratios and a progressively greater burden of excess debt, which we are here defining as leverage above the 140% of GDP historic standard.

The blue area of the graph below depicts the growing margin of debt in excess of the 140% of GDP standard as it stood in 1955. It makes clear as a bell that we are not talking about an oscillating cyclical trend, but a long-term path driven by the central bank printing presses that have generated a growing, debilitating wedge of debt on the US economy.

In fact, when your editor first arrived in Washington, DC as a youthful Capitol Hill staffer on the eve of Nixon's folly at Camp David in August 1971, the excess debt wedge stood at a modest $163 billion and 15% of GDP. But by the time Greenspan took the helm at the Fed in 1987, the newly liberated proprietors of its printing presses had already expanded the excess debt wedge to $4.416 trillion and 95% of GDP.

Thereafter, of course, it was off to the races. Even before Greenspan went full retard after the dotcom crash, excess debt already stood at $16.2 trillion and 158% of GDP, but in successive turns at bat his successors and assigns - Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell - operated the printing presses on turbocharge for the next two decades, causing the excess debt wedge to balloon to nearly $49 trillion and 227% of GDP by 2019.

Despite Powell's belated efforts to shrink the Fed's elephantine balance sheet via a short spell of QT (quantitative tightening), there has been no respite from the excess debt tsunami. At the end of 2025, in fact, it stood at $113.7 trillion and has continued to grow by leaps and bounds and is likely to hit $120 trillion by year-end 2026.

Yet and yet. The proof that none of the chronic and systemic interest rate repression that fostered this debt explosion was necessary lies in the pudding of the historical economic performance statistics. Indeed, if we scroll back to the very low starting debt figures and national leverage numbers of 1955, what we find is that was one barnburner of a year economically. On a Y/Y basis, real GDP had boomed by 7.1%, while the CPI actually fell by 0.4% and real median family income surged by 6.6%.

In a word, 1955 was the epicenter of the Golden Era that Donald Trump only brags about today. The aforementioned $600 billion of total public and private debt, which represented 141% of GDP, stood right square upon the prior long-term average of about 150% after 1870.

Obviously, it took nothing like today's mountainous debt levels and the associated inflationary bloating of both financial asset prices and goods and services to generate the prosperity of 1955 - a time when the great President Dwight Eisenhower was also slashing real defense spending by 35%, seeking a rapprochement with the Soviet Union, and moving the Federal budget into balance for the first time since the 1920s.

None of these conditions were remotely akin to the spend/borrow/speculate and print modus operandi of present times. In fact, during the period between Q1 1952 and Q1 1966, constant dollar US output (as measured by real final sales of domestic product) rose by 4.0% per annum.

By contrast, during the years since Q4 2007, when the Fed went all-in on stimmies and money-printing, real final sales grew at just 1.96% per annum or by barely half the growth rate during the Golden Era of the 1950s and 1960s. Over a continuous 14-year period these growth rate differences make a huge cumulative difference.

As shown in the graph below, the US economy was actually 72% larger by Q1 1966 than it had been in Q1 1952. By contrast, under the growth rate which has prevailed since the Great Finance Crisis - and notwithstanding massive fiscal and monetary stimulus from Washington policy makers - it would have been only 30% larger.

We'd call that a smoking gun. The Fed and its shills on Wall Street and Washington alike always claim that a modest amount of inflation on Main Street and a goodly helping of asset inflation on Wall Street are the necessary price to obtain higher growth, job creation, and overall prosperity on Main Street.

It is not. Not in the slightest as we detail below.

In fact, there is no contest. The table below compares real growth, inflation, real median family income, and job growth for the two periods, and the sharp contrasts speak for themselves.

Finally, it needs be recalled that this 14-year Golden Era occurred immediately after the 1951 Treasury Accord, which ended WWII-style monetization of the public debt and the pegging of Treasury bond interest rates at artificially low levels. As a consequence, under the sound money leadership of William McChesney Martin, the Fed's printing press was virtually idle until 1966, when LBJ forced the Fed Chairman to monetize his ill-conceived "guns and butter" policies for war in Southeast Asia and the so-called Great Society at home.

Over the course of 1951 thru Q2 1966, however, the Fed's balance sheet had expanded by a micr0scopic 0.7% per year, and that's in nominal terms.

In inflation-adjusted dollars it actually shrank by nearly 11% and dropped from 15% of GDP to just 7%.

By the lights of today's Fed fanboys, of course, the American economy - left unattended and undernourished by the central bank printing presses as it was during this 14-year period - should have tumbled into severe economic disrepair and crisis.

It didn't. American businesses, workers, consumers, savers, investors, inventors, and speculators pursuing their own best interest on the free market - coupled with relatively sound money - caused the American economy to actually boom and glow with noninflationary prosperity.

In a word, it showed its true stuff. No government "stimulus" and lickety-split debt growth was needed then, and it's not needed now.

So the first step toward restoration of a True Golden Era is the opposite of the recipe of easy money, big deficits, high tariffs, and ceaseless Washington meddling in the process of investment, resource allocation, and growth on the free market.

Simply pass a law forbidding the Fed to own government debt or buy and sell any securities at all. In lieu of this mode of monetary central planning, instead, just restore passive Discount Window lending at a penalty spread above the free market rate of interest based on the presentation of sound commercial collateral by Member banks.

That's all it would take to promote sustainable prosperity. And the proof is in the Golden Era pudding.

Undertake these reforms else we will see the rage grow and the long knives of wealth slayers drawn and used in ways no one wants. An economy this top-heavy with paper wealth - as the poor and middle class get destroyed with persistent inflation, slow growth, and unstable labor markets pervasive with dropouts - is not sustainable. It's not capitalism but rather corruption by the printing press. History shows precisely where this leads, namely to some upheaval that is even worse for everyone.

Total Public And Private Debt, Nominal GDP And “Excess Debt”, 1955-2025 Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 10:05

UBS Warns Trump's 100% Generic Drug Tariff Puts Indian Pharma "On Notice"; Goldman Flags Reshoring Winners

President Trump will impose a 100% tariff on imported generic drugs starting in August 2028, rising to 200% a year later, unless manufacturers shift production to the US.

"This is done in order to RESHORE Generic Pharmaceutical Production into America, with a penalty to those Companies that decide not to build Plant and Equipment within the stated period of time given to them," Trump wrote on Truth Social late Tuesday.

He continued, "The objective of this Policy is to protect the people of the United States. The Policy on Patented, Branded, or Innovative Drugs, which has been so successful, will remain as is," adding, "Pharmaceutical Facilities are being built, at a level never seen before, all over the United States of America."

Trump's announcement is the latest effort to reshore critical supply chains, and in this case, boost domestic production of generic drugs. Trump has been pressuring drugmakers through his most-favored-nation drug pricing policy to lower prices to what people pay in ‌other high-income countries. At least 90% of medicines sold in the U.S. are generics.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati told clients earlier that Trump's move to reshore generic drug production puts Indian pharmaceutical companies "on notice."

Samajpati said:

President Donald Trump has threatened steep tariffs on generic-drug imports to push manufacturing back to the US, though his plan includes a two-year tariff-free window before levies rise to 100% from August 2028 and 200% from August 2029. India is highly exposed: its generic medicines account for nearly 40% of US generic-drug volume, used widely to treat hypertension, diabetes, cancer, and infectious diseases.

In FY2024-25, India's pharma exports to the US totalled $9.7bn, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative. Yet implementation is uncertain given prior unfulfilled tariff threats, a February bilateral trade pact that included negotiated outcomes for generics, and India's 30%-50% manufacturing-cost advantage. The risk of immediate disruption is limited as investors assess whether policy pressure can realistically shift low-cost supply chains back to the US, especially if execution stretches beyond Trump's term.

Goldman analyst Matt Dellatorre offered clients a way to profit from this announcement:

For our generics coverage, we view the group as relatively well-positioned given: AMRX (significant US infrastructure), TEVA (diversified manufacturing; branded portfolio), and VTRS (diversified manufacturing; limited US exposure).

The national security case for reshoring critical generic-drug supply chains stems directly from Covid-era disruptions of essential medicines, active pharmaceutical ingredients, protective equipment, and medical devices. Years of offshoring have left the US dangerously dependent on foreign production, such as that in India.

In the event of a future supply shock, particularly one triggered by conflict in the Pacific, Washington could be confronted with shortages far more severe than the Covid-era. Rebuilding domestic production would give the US greater resilience to absorb any future supply shock without jeopardizing access to critical medical supplies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 09:45

Chilling New Clues Challenge Suicide Claim In Los Alamos Lab Worker's Death

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Fresh evidence recovered from the remote New Mexico forest where Los Alamos National Laboratory administrative assistant Melissa Casias was found has blown major holes in the suicide narrative.

An independent team hired by her own family discovered bones, torn and bloody clothing, orange peels, strands of what appears to be horse hair, shredded paper that may contain her handwriting, and a tobacco pouch - none of which New Mexico State Police recovered after clearing the scene.

Casias, 53, vanished from her Ranchos de Taos home on June 26, 2025. She left without her purse, keys or wallet. Surveillance captured her walking alone eastward on State Road 518 around 2:20 p.m.

Both her work and personal phones were found at the house, factory-reset and wiped of all data. A blood drop was also discovered inside the residence. Nearly eleven months later, on May 28, 2026, a hiker located her skeletal remains in the McGaffey Ridge area of Carson National Forest next to a handgun her family says did not belong to her.

Initial CT scans showed no gunshot wound and no projectile in the skull. No casing was recovered at the scene. The remote location is difficult to reach on foot, requiring multiple rest stops and water.

Now, new details have raised further serious questions.

Family attorney David Adams of Parnall and Adams Law said an independent search conducted in late June - after police had already cleared the area - turned up the additional items. "The family really wasn't expecting to find any additional information... it certainly turned out to be something much, much more," Adams stated.

He noted the presence of possible horse hair and the rugged terrain: "In my mind, when you see that, you kind of go, okay, well, I could see that you would need a horse to get her up there if you were moving a body, for instance, because how you would otherwise do that."

Melissa Casias, missing for years, was found dead in a New Mexico forest, with her family uncovering shocking new evidence that upends the initial investigation. Law&Crime's Jesse Weber @jessecordweber reports. pic.twitter.com/WFN4UT0Viq

— Law&Crime Network (@LawCrimeNetwork) July 1, 2026

Adams also questioned the tobacco pouch, pointing out Casias did not use tobacco, and raised chain-of-custody concerns: "There becomes a question of a chain of custody... Could law enforcement have spat a tobacco pouch in the crime scene? I mean, certainly possible. I mean, that would be an example of just poor training."

The family has rejected claims that Casias intended to disappear or end her life. Earlier reporting revealed she left home with her toothbrush and thyroid medication - items one investigator described as "things that might indicate you're planning to stay alive."

Adams said the family hired his firm after spotting multiple red flags. The new evidence has been turned over to authorities.

The official cause of death remains pending from the Office of the Medical Investigator nearly two months after the remains were identified. The FBI, ordered to examine possible links to other cases, has had no contact with the family according to Adams.

Former FBI agent Ben Hansen assessed the Casias case as roughly "80 percent foul play" and floated the possibility of directed-energy weapons or voice-to-skull technology that could influence behavior without leaving conventional ballistics.

Casias is one of several New Mexico individuals connected to nuclear facilities who disappeared under similar circumstances.

Her case sits inside a larger cluster that first drew national attention when retired Air Force Maj. Gen. William Neil McCasland - widely described as a UFO "gatekeeper" with oversight of top-secret space weapons and advanced aerospace programs - vanished from his Albuquerque home on February 27, 2026, just days after President Trump ordered full disclosure of all UFO and UAP records.

Subsequent cases included a NASA nuclear propulsion expert found charred inside a crashed Tesla.

A NASA-linked aerospace engineer and his family killed in a plane crash.

The death of anti-gravity researcher Amy Eskridge (who had reported directed-energy harassment).

The disappearance of JPL rocket scientist Monica Reza.

And additional personnel tied to nuclear components, rocket alloys and classified aerospace work, including the vanishing of Steven Garcia, a nuclear contractor with top clearance.

By mid-April 2026 the documented total had reached at least eleven. Former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker previously noted that administrative staff in high-clearance labs "would basically be in the know on what's going on" and that it "wouldn't be the first time their administrative assistant has been targeted."

Two major sets of previously classified UFO/UAP disclosure files have since been released under the Trump administration. President Trump has publicly addressed the string of cases, stating there is "not much of a connection" and describing many as individual matters while pledging a full report.

NOW – Trump says string of missing and dead scientists are not connected: "There's not much of a connection." pic.twitter.com/BSaOPYDOuo

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 30, 2026

The latest reporting on the missed evidence at the Casias scene only deepens the questions surrounding both her death and the wider pattern. Officials continue to treat each incident in isolation. Families and independent investigators keep finding anomalies that do not fit the tidy explanations being offered.

America's nuclear and advanced-technology workforce is not disposable. When personnel with access to the most sensitive programs keep vanishing or turning up dead under irregular circumstances - especially amid long-overdue transparency on related technologies - the public has every right to demand answers that match the seriousness of the losses.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 08:45

Futures Slide Ahead Of Google Earnings As Brent Surges Above $95

US futures are lower following a chipmaker-powered jump in Tuesday’s session, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling by 0.8%, which appears to be more of a retracement to yesterday’s strength than a move tied to oil or de-risking into today’s Tech earnings. Alphabet earnings are coming after the close. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures slide 0.6%. In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks are mixed ahead of key earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and IBM due later in the afternoon. Nvidia is underperforming the group as chipmakers declin; GOOG leads. Defensives and Energy are leading; within Cyclicals Financials are outperforming.  Today’s macro focus is wholly on GOOG and the AI trade. Crude is leading the commodity complex with WTI at $88/bbl and Brent above $95/bbl for the fist time in 6 weeks, so far Equities have not been derailed as investors continue to think that Trump pivots back to a deal. In metals, Precious is leading Base; Ags are mixed but net higher. Dollar is indicated a touch lower as bond yields are flat. Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed ahead of key earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and IBM due later in the afternoon. Nvidia is underperforming the group as chipmakers decline (Alphabet +0.8%, Microsoft  +0.4%, Amazon +0.2%, Meta little changed, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -0.3%, Nvidia  -0.9%).

• Oklo Inc. (OKLO) gains 3.8% and X-Energy Inc. (XE) rises 2.9% as the advanced nuclear reactor suppliers are joining technology giants in a Trump administration-led program to speed the development of new power plants for artificial intelligence data centers, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News.

• Otis Worldwide (OTIS) falls 2.3% after the company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.

• Pegasystems (PEGA) is down 15% after the software company reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The firm said its annual contract value (ACV) growth rate significantly slowed during the first half of the year as clients delayed purchasing decisions, and this trend may continue to adversely affect the ACV growth rate for the rest of the year.

• Super Micro (SMCI) jumps 16% after the server maker issued a business update that included raising its fourth-quarter gross margins outlook and saying the backlog was at a record.

• Vornado Realty (VNO) slips 1.1% as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight, saying the stock trades at an “expensive valuation.”

In other corporate news Celldex Therapeutics fell in extended trading after the biotech said barzolvolimab, its experimental antibody, failed to meet endpoints in a Phase 2 study for patients with prurigo nodularis, a rare chronic skin condition. OpenAI said its advanced AI models inadvertently hacked Hugging Face in an “unprecedented” incident.

A two-day rebound in the Nasdaq 100 came to a halt with some early weakness in futures trading following Tuesday’s momentum-led rally, with traders unlikely to deploy fresh capital before getting a steer from tonight’s bellwether tech earnings.  South Korea’s Kospi Index and other tech-heavy gauges in Asia trimmed strong early-session gains. The technology sector lagged sharply in Europe’s Stoxx 600. 

Higher oil prices also kept a lid on sentiment after both the US and Iran signaled they were in no mood to restart talks following an escalation in their conflict. Brent crude rose nearly 5% to surpass $95 a barrel for the first time in six weeks. 

After Alphabet said last quarter that it plans to more than double capital spending from 2025 to as much as $190 billion this year, investors will be looking for evidence that those investments are generating returns. Yet the companies building global AI infrastructure need that spending growth to continue to justify their stellar valuations. The earnings report will land just as market-leading chipmakers are gripped by intense volatility amid fears that the pace of AI outlays cannot be sustained. 

“Alphabet isn’t just reporting earnings, it’s reporting on the health of the entire AI investment cycle,” said Amanda Lyons at Energy Group Capital. “If management sounds any less committed to AI investment, the market won’t just punish Google, it will question the durability of the AI buildout more broadly.” Even so, capex alone isn’t enough as “investors increasingly want proof that the spending is generating returns,” she said.

Dispersion beneath the index surface remains high, encapsulated in chip volatility outpacing the rest of the market. Options market signals suggest hyperscaler earnings matter more than news out of the Fed, with Mag 7 reports dominating near-term event risk.

With second-quarter earnings driving markets in an otherwise light week for economic data, Alphabet kicks off megacap tech reporting tonight, with investors focused on cloud growth and the company’s capital spending ambitions. Capex is expected to hit $262 billion in 2027 — nearly three times what it was in 2025, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Google Cloud’s sales are expected to jump nearly 65% from a year ago to $22.4 billion. More coverage can be found in today’s Tech Watch column.

On the other side of AI momentum, IBM will provide more color to the spending delays it flagged in a surprise warning earlier this month. Many on Wall Street expect a cut to outlook, while Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani wonders how much of demand lost in the June quarter is recovered in the second half rather than being “destroyed.” Smaller software company Pegasystems similarly called out clients’ delayed purchasing decisions amid “unprecedented changes in the AI market” on Tuesday evening. Early signs this reporting season are encouraging with a measure of profit guidance momentum climbing to a record, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 2011. 

Elsewhere, generic drug manufacturers will have two years to move production to the US or face a 100% import duty from August 2028, Trump said, threatening the supply of low-cost medicines that millions of Americans rely on.  In finance, JPMorgan and Goldman are among global banks set to generate more than $100 million in fees from SoftBank’s $40 billion bridge loan for its investment in OpenAI. Private equity firms in some of the world’s hottest markets are facing headwinds as they try to place experienced managers in the companies they buy, hampering the pace of investments at a time when the amount of dry powder that fund managers have to deploy is climbing again. 

IBM and Texas Instruments are also due to report after the close. Super Micro Computer Inc. shares jumped in premarket trading on strong demand for its servers. Pegasystems  plummeted after the software firm missed earnings estimates.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is up by 0.7%, with energy stocks the biggest gainers along with utilities and miners.

Asian stocks gave up almost all of their early Wednesday gains as a rally in regional chip shares lost steam ahead of keenly awaited earnings from global tech heavyweights Alphabet and Tesla. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up just 0.1% after rising as much as 1.7%. Tencent Holdings was the biggest drag on the benchmark as the stock fell the most in over a year and dragged Chinese tech peers lower amid investor concerns over its mobile gaming business. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 3%. South Korea’s Kospi — which has become a closely watched barometer of global sentiment toward AI-linked equities — ended up 0.7% following an intraday surge of over 6%.

A subgauge of Asian chip shares was up 0.3% versus a jump of over 3.5% earlier in the session. Geopolitical tensions likely added to the caution, with oil extending gains as the US and Iran played down the prospect of talks and disruptions to global supplies continued to mount. Vietnamese stocks posted Asia’s steepest decline as margin calls forced leveraged investors to liquidate holdings after the benchmark index extended its losses to more than 13% from this year’s peak. Key gauges in other markets sensitive to higher oil prices — such as the Philippines, Thailand and India — also declined.

“Rising oil prices and jitters ahead of Alphabet earnings, the first big tech to report, may be impacting sentiment,” said Marvin Chen, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Anticipation for upcoming earnings from US tech giants beginning this week may dictate the outlook for whether the recovery in hardware can carry on.” 

“The oil-price spike, on the back of continuing reciprocal strikes, is a problem for most Asian net importers,” said Hasnain Malik, head of EM equity and geopolitics strategy at Tellimer.

In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed in London, after edging up in Asian trade. USD/JPY slipped as much as 0.3% to 162.69 following a Bloomberg report that Bank of Japan officials are open to raising the pace of interest rate rises. Still, the yen trades near a 40-year low of 163.24 hit on Tuesday, even as Japanese authorities reiterated threats to intervene in the currency market. 

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.63%. European bonds have recovered too and gilts are outperforming, brushing off the rise in oil prices and following a slowdown in UK headline inflation.

In commodities, brent oil is rallying and rose past $95/barrel with few visible signs that relations between the US and Iran are cooling off. The US widened the scope of its attacks on Iran overnight and both sides have played down the prospect of negotiations.  The rise for crude initially weighed on stock and bond markets, but that has reversed. Gold is stronger and above $4,100/oz.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight news

• Russia is no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine under any future peace deal, people familiar said. The Kremlin views recent confrontational US messaging as a sign Vladimir Putin’s talks with Trump failed to take root.

• BoJ officials are open to raising interest rates at a faster pace than the consensus among economists, as the yen’s continued weakness adds to upside inflation risks. The currency rebounded from a 40-year low.

• British inflation cooled by more than expected last month as a brief de-escalation in the Iran ‌war reduced fuel prices, but the slowdown is likely to offer only temporary relief to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham as he seeks to ease living costs. Consumer prices rose by 2.6% in annual terms in June — the weakest increase since March 2025 and down from 2.8% in May.

• The US widened the scope of its airstrikes on Iran overnight, as President Donald Trump and officials in Tehran signaled a renewal of peace talks is unlikely in the near-term.

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday accused Iran of not honoring the Strait of Hormuz deal, while reiterating that Washington was “committed to diplomacy” in the Middle East. He said a key sticking point between Teheran and Washington is that Iran “demands the right” to control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Tehran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen are ready to attack shipping from positions near the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, according to a global monitoring body for naval security.

• President Trump has formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the kingdom’s territory, according to administration officials.

• Oil options open interest hit a record as renewed US-Iran hostilities fueled demand for protection against sharp price swings. We see risks to our price forecast as tilted to the upside on net, especially in the near term.

• The House passed stopgap funding to keep the government open past the midterm elections. The measure now faces demands for changes in the Senate.

• The US House will vote today on a plan to ban members from trading stocks, according to Fox.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following on from the tech-led rebound on Wall Street, which was facilitated by several positive sector-specific headlines, and heading into some of the Mag-7 earnings. ASX 200 mildly gained amid strength in the commodity-related sectors, but with the upside capped by weakness in defensives, as well as domestic consumer and tech stocks. Nikkei 225 initially rallied at the open amid AI-related optimism and after PM Takaichi's Cabinet approved its first comprehensive economic and fiscal policy guidelines on Tuesday, targeting JPY 370tln in combined public and private investment by 2040, while sentiment was also helped by the stronger-than-expected exports and imports data from Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately mixed, with underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark in a resumption of the rotation out of hyperscalers.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won't comment on specific FX levels, but reiterated will take appropriate action on FX as needed and that they can take bold steps anytime as needed.
• China is said to have told all market participants not to re-discount bills at rates below 0.5%, sources said.

European equity futures are mostly in the green, following on from a positive APAC session; upside which comes despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices. For the UK, a cooler/in-line inflation report lessens the need for a BoE hike, though the ongoing geopolitical environment will keep policymakers wary on the path ahead. As it stands, money markets assign a 12% chance of a hike next week, and fully priced in by November. European sectors hold a positive bias; Energy and Insurance tops the pile, whilst Tech lags, joined by Travel & Leisure. European pharma names have been in focus, after US President Trump stated that generic drugs will not be subject to US tariffs until 2028 but will then face 100% levies. Given European pharma names typically produce exclusive/high-patented drugs, for reference, the Indian pharma sector fell as much as 2% in APAC trade. However, the likes of Sandoz (-4%) and Bayer (-2%) have extended lower this morning.

Top European News

• The US House will vote today on a plan to ban members from trading stocks, according to Fox.
• The US House voted 220-205 to pass a stopgap measure to fund federal agencies through November elections.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the USD, with slight outperformance in the EUR and JPY while antipodeans lag.  Geopolitics remains constructive for the Greenback on paper with oil prices firmer once again, but the environment fails to translate into Buck strength. USD specific catalysts are light with an extremely light data calendar, so focus will be on GOOGL earnings due after the NY closing bell, potentially a report which could give the Buck a bias. 
• JPY moved sharply lower, USD/JPY falling 45 pips from recent highs, before paring some of the move. A Bloomberg source report said the BoJ is said to be open to a hike faster than every 6 months, adding the recent JPY weakness is seen as an upside risk to inflation. Despite the move lower in USD/JPY, markets seem inclined to buy dips in the pair, looking to push it towards the 165.00 region, where option structures last week were believed would be the next pain point for the MoF. USD/JPY is a little weaker and just below 163.00.
• GBP/USD has been choppy throughout the session and ultimately lacks direction within a 1.3370-1.3390 range, despite a broadly positive inflation report. Headline Y/Y cooled at a faster rate than expected, and 0.5ppts below BoE’s April MPR forecast; Services cooled in line with BoE forecast due to volatile airfares, while core metric stood at 2.6%, in line with  BoE forecast. Within the series, one element likely to be welcomed by policymakers is the food component, slowing to its lowest since August 2024, at 1.1ppts below the BoE forecast. Overall, a report which supports the narrative of a BoE unchanged for the remainder of the year.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks initially came under pressure given the rise in energy prices (Brent +3.2%); however, fixed income has reversed off its earlier lows, despite a clear driver.
• Gilts (-8 ticks) trade at the top end of a 86.33-86.69 range, reversing the earlier losses. The broadly positive inflation figure initially failed to support UK gilts. To recap, headline inflation ticked lower to 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.8%), while core inflation held at 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.5%). Services inflation also fell to 3.6% Y/Y from 3.8%, while food prices fell for a second consecutive month. ING sees the BoE holding rates throughout 2026, with the trend of lower core service inflation and low private-sector wage growth.
• JGBs (-18 ticks) traded rangebound throughout the Asia-Pac session but have come under recent pressure following a Bloomberg scoop. The report stated that the BoJ is open to a hike faster than every 6 months, while adding that the recent JPY weakness is seen as an upside risk to inflation. The Bank is close to a stage of anchoring, not spurring inflation, the report added. Following this, markets are fully pricing a rate hike in December. Elsewhere, the 40-year JGB auction drew its strongest demand since March 2025 (b/c 2.82x vs prev. 2.70x). 
• USTs (-1+ ticks) hold steady, just shy of last week's trough of 108-17, seemingly unaffected by the higher energy prices. 
• Germany sells EUR 1.708bln vs exp. EUR 2bln 2.60% 2041 and 3.40% 2047 Bund. 
• Australia sells AUD 900mln 2.75% 2035 AGBs: b/c 4.37x (prev. 3.65x), average yield 4.9457% (prev. 4.4140%).

Commodities

• Crude futures are firmer following several escalatory updates overnight and in the European morning. To recap, US CENTCOM confirmed the US military completed its 11th night of airstrikes against Iran. Iran retaliated by launching drone attacks targeting a US military base at Camp Doha in Kuwait, as well as locations in Bahrain and Jordan. On the diplomatic front, an Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson said there is currently no ongoing negotiation, and it may only involve the exchange of messages. Further, Iranian lawmaker Qashqavi said US President Trump's claim about Iran's request for negotiations is not true. 
• On Hormuz, the Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief says Iran controls the Hormuz Strait and will fire upon American forces. 
• Further, the Houthis' maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia saw several tankers moving to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If Bab el-Mandeb, voyages to Asia may only occur via the Suez Canal, which adds notable time and expenses. On that note, CMA CGM (the third-largest container shipping company globally) will impose an emergency fuel surcharge effective August 1 following the renewed escalation of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz.
• WTI and Brent are higher by over 4% intraday at the time of writing, with Brent towards the top end of a USD 91.31-95.24/bbl range, while WTI resides towards the upper end of its 84.44-88.25/bbl band. The Middle East situation and soaring insurance costs have also prompted Dutch TTF to surge, with the front-month closer to EUR 62/MWh vs yesterday’s sub-EUR 60/MWh prints.
• Precious metals are firmer intraday but off worst levels, feeling opposing forces from higher oil prices and some technical factors after the yellow metal topped USD 4,100/oz. Spot gold trades between 4,076-4,141/oz at the time of writing. Spot silver is more contained between USD 58.73-60.06/oz. Base metals are mostly firmer to varying degrees, but copper gives back some recent gains amid the rise in oil prices and its subsequent effect on inflation and growth. 
• 3M LME copper trades around the middle of a USD 13,769.00- 13,919.00/t parameter. 
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.6mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillates +1.8mln (exp. +1.0mln), Gasoline -1.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Cushing -0.7mln.
• US President Trump formally approved a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the kingdom's territory, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
• Goldman Sachs analysts raised TTF forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to EUR 60/MWh (prev. saw 41/MWh) and EUR 53/MWh (prev. 40/MWh), following an assumed delay to Persian Gulf LNG export normalisation to October 2026.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US Secretary of State Rubio said China is displeased with Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran is in "a lot" of trouble. Rubio added that China has been cooperative in Iran in some cases. Additionally, he said the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of energy and that Iran can never possess nuclear weapons.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is committed to diplomacy in the Middle East and Iran, but added Iran is not serious about talks, while the US remains open and willing to engage in negotiations.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth said we have multiple options for striking Iran's nuclear facilities in Jabal al-Fas. 
• US CENTCOM said forces conducted the 11th consecutive night of strikes against Iran in which they targeted Iranian military operations centres, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic, with US forces facilitating the movement of approximately 900 vessels and 450mln barrels of crude since early May.
• US strikes were reported on Behbahan, Mahshahr, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Bushehr, west of Tabriz and Urmia, while several explosions were heard in Iran's Tabriz. Furthermore,  Arab media reported that missiles were fired from Kuwaiti territory to Iran and drone and missile attacks were reported on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. More recently, there were explosions heard in Sirik.
• IRGC said it targeted a tactical radar complex near Ali Al-Salem base and another radar system in Bubiyan Island in Kuwait, while Iran's army also said it shot down a one-way attack drone in the country's northwest, according to Tasnim. Additionally, Iran’s military said it struck US targets at Jordan’s Azraq base and Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base, according to Iranian state media.
• Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson said there is currently no ongoing negotiation and that it may only involve the exchange of messages, Mehr News reported.
• Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief said Iran controls the Hormuz Strait and will fire upon American forces, Press TV reported. 
• Iran's top joint military command warned that all interests of the US and its allies in the region will be targeted if the US attacks Iran's nuclear sites.
• Iranian lawmaker Qashqavi said US President Trump's claim about Iran's request for negotiations is not true.
• Pakistan is said to have sought USD 10bln in US funding after mediating talks with Iran, sources said.
• Explosions were reported in Israel's Eilat during Iran's missile strike on Jordan's Aqaba, N12 reported.
• Only 3 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports citing Kpler data.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has struck logistics centres involved in the supply of drone components in Russia's Krasnodar and Stavropol regions.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said its forces attacked a Ukrainian port and two vessels were struck at sea, according to TASS.

Geopolitics: Other

• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US disagrees with China's activities on Taiwan.

Event calendar

• It’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I forgot to mention this on Monday, but over the weekend—after 42 years of playing golf and perhaps 100–150k on-course shots—I finally got a hole-in-one. However, it was on a nine-hole, relatively short par-3 course, so I’ve been debating whether it really counts. It didn’t quite feel like enough to justify buying the entire clubhouse a drink (especially as it was busy), so I quietly snuck off, but my kids watched it go in and were impressed—which, as they get older, is an increasingly hard feat to pull off.

I'm not sure which is harder, a hole-in-one or successful negotiations in the current conflict. Indeed, with no breakthroughs regarding Iran, the market focus returned to inflation over the last 24 hours, as Brent crude closed above $90/bbl for the first time in over a month, reviving fears about a wider stagflationary shock. And this morning we’ve seen a further rise above $92/bbl, so there’s little sign of oil prices easing as the US confirmed overnight they’d completed an 11th consecutive evening of strikes against Iran. To be fair, equities performed very well considering that, thanks to a chip stock rebound, but markets still priced in a more hawkish path for central banks, with bond yields moving higher around the world as a result. Indeed, several hit multi-year highs yesterday, with the US 30 real yield (+1.0bps) reaching a post-2008 high of 2.93%, whilst France’s 10yr yield (+1.8bps) closed at a post-2009 high of 3.96%. Standby for Alphabet and Tesla's earnings after the US close. The former's capex plans, and the market reaction to them, will be fascinating. 
The latest oil moves come as the strikes between the US and Iran have showed no sign of easing, and there are still no concrete signs of a peace deal either. Admittedly, it was reported by AP that Iran’s interior minister had met with mediators in Pakistan, as attempts are being made to try and revive the interim deal reached between the US and Iran last month. And it was later confirmed by the office of Pakistan’s PM that he’d met with Iran’s interior minister. However, Trump later played down any chance of a meeting saying "They want to desperately meet and until they're ready to meet in a meaningful way we have no interest". So with no agreements in the pipeline, investors moved to price in a more sustained supply shock. For instance, the front-end Brent future was up +2.01% to $91.01/bbl by yesterday’s close, whilst the 6-month Brent future (+0.32%) also hit a 1-month high of $81.26/bbl. And that’s continued this morning, with Brent crude up another +1.24% to $92.14/bbl. 

Whilst oil prices were moving higher, those inflation fears were exacerbated by the ongoing climb in natural gas prices. Indeed, the European front-end natural gas future (+1.57%) was up for a 7th consecutive day to €59.66/MWh, its highest level in 4 months. Moreover, several other commodities saw some big moves yesterday, with gold (+1.72%) up to $4,077/oz, and silver (+4.20%) up to $58.79/oz, whilst copper (+3.37%) also moved higher. So all that pushed near-term inflation expectations higher, with the 1yr US inflation swap (+0.8bps) up to 2.04%, whilst the 1yr Euro Inflation swap (+1.7bps) moved up to 2.59%.

That backdrop meant investors priced in more Fed rate hikes, and speculation even returned about a potential rate hike next week. For instance, the probability of a July hike was back up to 26% by the close, the highest since last week’s downside surprise in the US CPI print. It was at 45% the day before CPI and as low as 10% the day after. Speaking of the Fed, our US economists are currently conducting their pre-FOMC survey, which includes a few questions on the Fed’s new task forces. If you have a few minutes, they’d appreciate your input to the survey, which you can find here.

With that in mind, US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+5.5bps) up to 4.26%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.6bps) rose to a two-month high of 4.63%. And for real yields there were some even bigger milestones, as the 2yr real yield (+3.6bps) rose to 2.33%, its highest since September 2024, and the 10yr real yield (+2.2bps) was up to 2.35%, its highest since October 2023.

Whilst sovereign bonds had a bad day, it was a different story for global equities, which surged thanks to a sharp bounceback in chip stocks. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (+5.21%) posted its best daily performance in the last month, which helped to lift US equities more broadly. So the S&P 500 was up a sizeable +0.89% on the day, even as a majority of companies in the index lost ground. And over in Europe, tech stocks also helped to power the recovery, with the STOXX 600 up +0.56% on the day, with the STOXX Technology Index up +3.29%.

Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen that recovery in chip stocks continue, with South Korea’s KOSPI (+5.07%) posting a strong gain for a second consecutive day. Moreover, other indices have also risen, including the Nikkei (+1.03%), the CSI 300 (+0.67%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.50%). However, the Hang Seng is down -0.83%, and US equity futures are also pointing slightly lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%. Otherwise, the Japanese yen weakened to levels last seen in 1986, closing at 163.17 per US dollar yesterday, where it remains this morning. And this morning, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that “Our policy remains completely unchanged: We will take appropriate and bold action at any time, should the need arise.” That weakness in the yen is a good opportunity to remind you of Mapping the World's Prices 2026, which shows just how astonishingly cheap Japan now is relative to its DM peers and even versus many EM ones. See the report here.

Elsewhere yesterday, UK gilts outperformed as markets reacted to the previous evening’s announcement that John Healey would be the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, recovering after a very weak Monday. Although Healey was a surprise choice, given his name wasn’t really in the frame beforehand, markets were reassured by his previous experience as a Treasury minister in the 2000s, and his commitment to the fiscal rules. Indeed, new PM Andy Burnham said yesterday at cabinet that “We’ve got to show that our commitment to the fiscal rules is real, and we’re prepared to make difficult decisions in relation to that”. So the 10yr gilt yield fell -0.2bps on the day to 5.03%. Net net they are +7.9bps on the week so far, the same as 10yr US Treasuries but a bigger rise than for Bunds (+3.9bps) and OATs (+3.6bps). Meanwhile, we also heard the new government’s first economic announcement yesterday, as they announced that VAT of 5% would be removed on domestic electricity bills from October 1.

Otherwise in Europe, sovereign bonds sold off as the focus was on the ongoing rise in oil and gas prices. So yields on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+1.8bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) all rose yesterday, with the 10yr OAT yield at a post-2009 high of 3.96%. Meanwhile at the front-end, the 2yr German yield (+1.7bps) closed at 2.80%, its highest level in almost two years. That came as the German ZEW survey surprised on the upside yesterday, with the expectations component up to 26.3 in July (vs. 15.3 expected), which is the highest it’s been since February.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 07:45

Shipping Firms Offering Sailors Massive Bonuses To Risk Crossing Hormuz

Via The Cradle

International shipping firms are offering crews large bonuses to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the risks involved, Bloomberg reported Monday.

Sinokor Group, the world's largest owner of supertankers, offered its crews six months of extra salary to make a return voyage collecting oil from Saudi Arabia or Iraq and unloading it in the Gulf of Oman, a trip the company said would take around a month, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. 

Iranian military speedboats, illustrative file image

Captain Pradeep Chawla, chairman of GlobalMET, a seafarer training organization that partners with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), said crews are "being offered huge bonuses by some companies," without referring to the Sinokor offer directly.

He added that "We have heard stories of a large number of crew members getting off, but they are able to find people who are willing to go."

Since the start of the US war on Iran, at least 59 commercial ships have come under attack in and around the Persian Gulf, with 17 seafarers killed, according to the UN's shipping agency. 

The cost of shipping has surged since attacks on commercial vessels drove traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to near collapse.

The heightened risk has driven up both insurance premiums and crew bonuses, yet many seafarers are still refusing the additional pay rather than risk the crossing.

The latest shipping data by Kpler shows that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily suppressed, with only 30 verified crossings logged between July 17 and 19.

Reuters reported last week that shipping firms are steering clear of US-controlled shipping corridors through the Strait of Hormuz along Oman's coast, fearing Iranian strikes. The move follows a series of attacks on vessels bypassing the Islamic Republic's designated channels under the Iran–US memorandum of understanding (MoU).

One shipping source said the US appears to have no control over the situation, while Verisk Maplecroft analyst Torbjorn Solvedt warned that Iran's continued ability to hit ships on the Omani route makes US President Donald Trump's administration's plan to keep traffic moving unlikely to succeed.

Sinokor offers 6 months bonus to crews willing to do a month long run in Hormuz. Captain earns the most - $15k. A sailor earns $1.5k a month.

…Sinokor charges $500k/day… 🤬

Shipowners Offer Huge Bonuses to Get Crews to Sail Hormuz https://t.co/f0ntgyzl3j

— Laman (@LVision_Trading) July 20, 2026

In early July, three Thai sailors sued their former employer, Precious Shipping, along with two affiliates and the vessel's captain, accusing them of endangering their lives and dismissing them before their nine-month contracts ended, after a projectile struck their cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz in March, killing three crew members.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 07:20

Trump Greenlights Saudi Nuclear Deal, Uranium Enrichment In The Kingdom Possible

President Trump has formally approved a landmark 30-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that could be worth tens of billions of dollars and put American companies at the center of the kingdom's nuclear buildout, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The accord is expected to be signed Wednesday by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, then head to Congress for a 90-day review. Lawmakers could block it through a joint resolution, but overriding a Trump veto would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

There is plenty to like here. A Section 123 agreement creates a legal framework for peaceful use, safeguards, and nonproliferation. American involvement also gives Washington more influence over Riyadh's program than it would have if Saudi Arabia turned to China or Russia.

The agreement is the latest step in a rapidly deepening relationship. The administration previously delinked Saudi nuclear talks from normalization with Israel, while Trump later designated the kingdom a major non-NATO ally after Mohammed bin Salman's return to the White House.

Yet one provision is difficult to support: “A key provision of the new accord would have American companies build an uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint U.S.-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted.”

The 123 accord is not a turnkey export license, and any technology transfer would still require separate federal approval, but the policy direction is clear.

The strongest argument for this arrangement is that US technology and oversight would keep Washington inside the tent and make diversion harder. That is a legitimate advantage, but it doesn’t eliminate the underlying risk.

Uranium enrichment is inherently dual-use. Centrifuges producing reactor fuel enriched to 3 to 5% can be reconfigured toward weapons-grade material above 90%. Safeguards can monitor declared activity, but technology, infrastructure, and trained personnel endure long after a government or regional balance changes. 

Mohammed bin Salman has also said Saudi Arabia would pursue a bomb if Iran obtained one. The UAE, another close Gulf partner, accepted the so-called gold standard by renouncing enrichment and reprocessing.

The better model is simple: export the product, not the technology.

As we recently argued, Washington should overbuild uranium conversion and enrichment capacity inside the United States, then supply allies with safeguarded fuel under long-term contracts. Saudi Arabia would receive reliable reactor fuel, American workers would capture the investment, US suppliers would gain durable export revenue, and sensitive technology would remain under US jurisdiction.

No contractors have been announced. Centrus looks like the leading technology candidate given its operating US-origin centrifuge cascade and deep Department of Energy ties, with General Matter the emerging alternative. 

Bechtel has the Saudi and nuclear pedigree to participate, but Centrus' existing EPC partnership with Fluor gives Fluor the stronger documented construction claim.

The agreement is strategically sound if it anchors Riyadh to American reactors, fuel, standards, and safeguards. But building Saudi enrichment capability trades away too much leverage in pursuit of that goal. Washington should sell the kingdom decades of American-made fuel, not the machinery that can ultimately make far more than fuel.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 06:55

BritCard Is Dead: Burnham Kills Starmer's £1.8 Billion Digital ID To Pay For An Energy Tax Cut

Ten months ago Keir Starmer warned that anyone without a government digital ID "will not be able to work in the United Kingdom." On Tuesday - day two of the Burnham premiership - the scheme was formally killed off.

It wasn't the nearly 2.9 million people who signed the petition. It wasn't the civil liberties groups who dragged it through Parliament. It died because the new Prime Minister needed £1.8 billion to scrap VAT on electricity bills.

In his first major act in No 10, Andy Burnham announced that VAT will come off domestic electricity bills from October 1, timed to land before the next Ofgem price cap. Qualifying small businesses, charities and care homes benefit too. New Chancellor John Healey - installed Monday evening after Rachel Reeves was shown the door - said the move "is funded this year from cancelling the Digital ID programme," which the government prices at £1.8 billion over three years.

So ends BritCard: sold as the answer to illegal migration, buried as a line item in somebody else's tax cut.

A Short, Unhappy Life

None of this will surprise regular readers. When Starmer unveiled the plan last September, officials admitted its "efficacy depends on everyone having them" - universal or nothing. The pitch was border control. The architecture, as we noted at the time, was always closer to population management: only around 40,000 of the nearly one million migrants who arrived last year came by small boat. A universal ID for the entire country, aimed at the smallest slice of the problem it was sold on, was a problem-reaction-solution classic.

What followed was mission creep at record speed. By October it had become a bait and switch. By January ministers were floating digital IDs for newborns - cradle-to-grave tracking for a £1.8 billion program. Nearly 2.9 million people signed a petition, forcing a Parliamentary debate, and by mid-January the government had dropped the mandatory right-to-work requirement, the load-bearing wall of the whole project. Big Brother Watch's Silkie Carlo said taxpayers should not be footing "a £1.8 billion bill for a digital ID scheme that is frankly pointless." Ministers pressed on anyway with a voluntary version that was never the optional convenience they claimed.

Now even that shell is gone - cancelled not on principle but for parts.

Follow The Money

Whether the money is actually there is another question. The Times reports the VAT cut is fully funded. The OBR counters that the £1.8 billion Digital ID budget was never funded in the first place, which means cancelling it pays for nothing. At least one former minister has said flatly that the cut is unfunded. The government's own release concedes that "updated costs will be set out at Budget" - the arithmetic, in other words, arrives later. More giveaways are already queued: a 20 percent business-rates cut for hospitality within days, per HuffPost UK, and a £2 bus-fare cap as soon as Wednesday.

Gilt traders ran the same numbers and reached the same place. The 10-year yield jumped 8 basis points to 5.04 percent on Monday as Burnham's early remarks stoked fears of a looser fiscal stance, then pared the move once Healey - the former defence secretary who quit Starmer's cabinet over defence funding - took the Treasury instead of Ed Miliband, who was packed off to the Foreign Office. Yields fell across the curve Tuesday morning in evident relief, with sterling steady near $1.344. Relief is not confidence. British 10-year borrowing costs are still the highest in the G7, and every unfunded pound of Burnham's day-two populism gets marked to market eventually.

What Actually Died

To be precise about the corpse: what was cancelled is the standalone national BritCard programme, and nothing else. It does not touch Gov.uk One Login and its millions of enrolled users, the Gov.uk Wallet, or the Online Safety Act's age-verification regime, which as we reported in June was already working as a backdoor identity mandate for every phone in Britain, with Google and Apple building the plumbing.

Schemes like this also have a habit of returning under new names with smaller line items. A government that just banked £1.8 billion in savings that were never there knows exactly where to find another £1.8 billion next year.

Still, take the win. Nearly three million signatures couldn't kill BritCard. One expensive winter did. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 05:45

German Motorists Flood Czech Border As Fuel-Price-Cap Ends

Via Remix News,

German motorists formed kilometer-long lines at Czech gas stations on Sunday as they rushed to take advantage of lower prices before the government’s fuel cap expired.

Stations near the German border were overwhelmed by drivers seeking cheaper gasoline and diesel, with footage showing long queues at some locations.

According to Echo24, fuel in the Czech Republic was as much as €0.80 per liter cheaper than in Germany.

The surge came shortly before regulated pricing ended and the Czech fuel market returned to market-based rates.

Prices began rising at several stations on Monday morning, with diesel generally recording the sharpest increases.

At a PRIM station in Prague’s Dolní Počernice district, diesel rose by 2.40 crowns (€0.10) to 39.90 crowns (€1.65) per liter. Natural 95 gasoline increased by 1.40 crowns (€0.06) to 40.90 crowns (€1.69).

At a Shell station in Prague’s Chodov district, diesel increased by one crown (€0.04) to 41.90 crowns (€1.73) per liter. Natural 95 gasoline rose by 0.60 crowns (€0.02) to 43.10 crowns (€1.78).

Analysts had expected diesel prices to climb by as much as three crowns (€0.12) per liter because a temporary reduction in the diesel excise tax expired alongside the price controls. Smaller increases were forecast for gasoline.

The government introduced the measures in April after oil prices rose amid the conflict in the Middle East.

The Finance Ministry imposed daily maximum prices based on wholesale costs and capped retailer margins, initially at 2.50 crowns (€0.10) per liter and later at three crowns (€0.12).

The cabinet also temporarily reduced the diesel excise tax from 9.95 crowns (€0.41) to 8.011 crowns (€0.33) per liter. The gasoline tax remained unchanged at 12.84 crowns (€0.53).

Finance Minister Alena Schillerová previously said the diesel tax reduction cost the state budget around one billion crowns, approximately €41.3 million, per month.

Schillerová said the government would continue monitoring the market and could reintroduce regulation if fuel prices rise sharply or conditions on global oil markets deteriorate.

The cabinet also temporarily reduced the diesel excise tax from 9.95 crowns to 8.011 crowns per liter. The gasoline tax remained unchanged at 12.84 crowns.

Finance Minister Alena Schillerová previously said the diesel tax reduction cost the state budget around one billion crowns per month.

Schillerová said the government would continue monitoring the market and could reintroduce regulation if fuel prices rise sharply or conditions on global oil markets deteriorate.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 05:00

Drone War Enters Terrifying New Phase As Russia Deploys 300-MPH Jet-Powered Shahed

Dramatic footage posted on X shows what appears to be a Russian Geran-4 jet-powered, one-way attack drone striking a passenger train in Ukraine.

If authenticated, the footage shows just how rapidly drone warfare is evolving beyond conventional two-stroke power plants toward miniature turbojets that sharply increase speed, compress warning and response times, potentially render many existing small-drone interceptors ineffective, and accelerate the overall tempo of combat across modern battlefields.

Here's the footage:

A video has emerged documenting the moment when a Russian Geran-4 jet-powered OWA-UAV impacted a locomotive of a passenger train in the Ukrainian settlement of Solone, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/RRUl8x7NBM

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) July 20, 2026

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence recently published a report on Russia's new jet-powered strike UAV, known as the Geran-4.

The report said the Geran-4 entered combat in May and can exceed 300 mph, climb above 15,000 feet, and deliver a 100- to 200-pound warhead against targets up to 279 miles away.

Powered by Chinese-made Telefly turbojets, the Geran-4 compresses Ukraine's detection and engagement windows while forcing Kiev to deploy faster and more expensive interceptor drones and missiles.

Reuters published a report Tuesday noting that Ukrainian drone manufacturer SkyFall unveiled a new high-speed interceptor at the UK's Farnborough Airshow designed to counter these new Russian jet-powered drones.

Ukrainian company SkyFall introduced the P1-SUN Jetkiller, an accelerated interceptor drone designed to counter Shahed-type drones. It reaches speeds of up to 370 km/h, compared with 310 km/h for the standard P1-SUN variant. Development took around three months.#SkyFall #P1SUN pic.twitter.com/HmTClD0OkF

— Drone Wars (@Drone_Wars_) July 21, 2026

 We warned in May: "And just wait until micro jet engines become standard on suicide drones ..." 

Read: Logic Of Violence: We Are Nowhere Near The Endgame In Drone Wars

Last drone coverage:

• Anduril Unveils Tiltrotor Killer Drone Straight Out Of 'Terminator'
• Watch: Aerial Drone Airlifts Kamikaze Ground Bot Into Battle As Warfare Automation Accelerates
• Why Is China Advertising Insane War Drones On Facebook
• Fiber-Optic Kamikaze Drone Found In Mexico Signals New Drone Threat South Of Border

Counter AUS coverage:

• "Sub-Second Detect- To-Fire": Futuristic Dome Turret Could Be US Military's Answer To Drone Swarms
• US Military Races To Harden Strategic Nuclear Bases With Counter-Drone AI Shield

The world is becoming a dark and dangerous place as drones and robots become weaponized. Humanoids will be next. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 04:15

Poland's Planned Megaport Is Part Of Its Regional Power Play

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Poland will become indispensable to Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary’s global trade upon the completion of this project, thus securing their place within its “sphere of influence” and reducing the likelihood that German-backed Ukraine “poaches” them as part of their rivalry for regional leadership.

“Notes From Poland” reported that “Poland has begun construction of a 10 billion zloty (€2.3 billion) deepwater port and container terminal in the city of Świnoujście, near the German border…The facility will also be designed for both civilian and defence use…Deputy infrastructure minister Arkadiusz Marchewka said the terminal would serve not only Poland but also markets including eastern Germany, and the landlocked Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary, reports Business Insider Polska.”

This megaproject is part of Poland’s regional power play in which it envisages becoming the leader of Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) through diplomatic, security, and connectivity means, the first two of which were elaborated upon here while the third concerns the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI). The last-mentioned involves dual-use connectivity infrastructure such as that which Poland is now building in Świnoujście, which also hosts an LNG terminal that could supply Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary.

They and Poland are coincidentally the states that new Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar proposed merging into a sub-regional integration bloc that would combine the Visegrad Group (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary) with the Slavkov format (Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria). While they’ve yet to implement his idea, Polish influence over those four will grow upon the completion of Poland’s new 3SI-connected Świnoujście megaport, which will facilitate the expansion of their global trade.

It also goes without saying that their import of American LNG via the Świnoujście terminal would do the same, with both Polish initiatives serving to show just how important that country is poised to become to CEE in the evolving post-conflict order. Another poignant observation is that Czechia, Hungary, and Slovakia all refused to finance the EU’s new €90 billion loan to Ukraine, over half of Austrians want their government to stop financing it too, and Poles are rapidly souring on Ukraine as well.

With all this in mind, Poland already basically leads an unofficial bloc in CEE comprised of countries whose societies and governments alike (Austria’s being the notable exception as regards the latter) are known abroad for their increasing criticism of Ukraine, which most recently ruined its ties with Poland. Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits sparked so much backlash that even the country’s ruling Ukrainophilic liberal coalition was forced to harden its approach.

“Poland Finally Realizes The Geostrategic Challenge Posed By Ukraine” as its German-backed competitor for leadership over CEE. In particular, “Ukraine’s Planned Drone Plants In The Baltics Are Part Of A Plot To Outflank Poland”. Even if Poland “loses” the Baltics to Ukraine, and recalling that Ukraine already beat it in the Balkans (for now) as proven by six regional leaders recently paying political pilgrimage there, Poland could still count Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary within its “sphere of influence”.

Joint German-Ukrainian leadership over the Baltics and the Balkans would still overshadow that achievement, and Poland would then face challenges to its political sovereignty and strategic autonomy, but it would still have a fighting chance at avoiding full-blown domination.

Therefore, the grand strategic significance of the Świnoujście megaport is that it’ll prevent Poland’s isolation in the aforesaid scenario by making it indispensable to its landlocked allies, after which it might try to “regain” the Baltics one day.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 03:30

India Summons Russian Envoy, Furious At Mass Casualty Tanker Strike In Black Sea

Tit-for-tat attacks on shipping between Ukraine and Russia have ratcheted of late in the Black Sea. At least half a dozen commercial vessels have been attacked in these waters over the past two weeks alone. The situation is almost becoming akin to a Hormuz crisis in its own right, as oil transit slows.

Tragically, there's a mounting death toll among crew members caught in the crossfire. One of the biggest single casualty events - if not the biggest - was the result of a Russian attack on the Golden Leo, a Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship, on Sunday.

Ukrainian Navy/Telegram

Three cruise missiles reportedly hit the vessel, killing ten people, including four Indian citizens. The other dead were from Syria, and one Ukrainian, and the incident has outraged these countries, especailly India.

Throughout the Ukraine war India and Russia have remained key energy trading partners, but this Black Sea incident has introduced fresh tensions.

India’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Tuesday that it summoned a senior Russian diplomat to fiercely protest the attack and deaths of Indian nationals.

"Such attacks undermine the safety, security and stability of international maritime commerce," India’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement upon summoning Russian chargé d’affaires Vladimir Ladanov.

New Delhi further expressed "grave concerns and unequivocal condemnation" of the attack and told Ladanov to convey to the Kremlin that "the targeting of commercial shipping and the resulting loss of innocent civilian lives are unacceptable and must be avoided."

Ukraine has also been drastically escalating its attacks on Russian vessels, including so-called 'dark fleet' tankers.

As we featured previously, these attacks reached a peak by mid-July: Ukrainian forces struck 17 Russia-linked oil tankers, 2 gas carriers, and one tugboat early on July 15, drone unit commander Robert Brovdi said at the time.

Meanwhile, more reports of tanker attacks off Black Sea coast emerging by the day:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 A Liberian-flagged LPG tanker, "Gas Lisbon" bound for Ukraine was hit off the coasts of Romania.

All 17 crew onboard were evacuated by the Romanian coast guard, with three injured.

This comes after the new sea blockade imposed by the Russian MoD on Odessa. pic.twitter.com/iC53Y8QW9y

— Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) July 21, 2026

"The first round of the naval battle is over," the commander wrote, referring to the Sea of Azov, where Ukraine had focused its drone attack efforts in the past few weeks, alongside targeting refineries deep into Russian territory.

"Now, the Black Sea," Brovdi said, confirming that Ukraine’s campaign to strike oil and gas vessels is indeed expanding to the Black Sea, a key export route for crude and fuels from the south of Russia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 02:45

The UK Censors The Net 'For The Children'

Authored by Ted Newson via AmericanThinker.com,

Outgoing British prime ministers have a tendency to rapidly expand the remit of the state in their final days.

Theresa May tied a Net Zero target into law, Rishi Sunak implemented a generational smoking ban.

Keir Starmer is no exception.

The British state has now outlawed social media usage for those under sixteen.

On June 15, Starmer stood at Downing Street to announce that Britain would ban under-16s from social media, after intense pressure from campaigners. Possibly his last meaningful political action before resigning on June 22. Additionally, the now-departed PM has left the door open to curfews for 16 and 17-year-olds. The country that gave the world the liberal philosophy America's Founders drew on is now imposing digital ID and information bans.

The justification is public safety. A framing that has a habit of expanding well beyond its original scope. Banning under-16s from social media is framed as "giving children back their childhoods"; in reality, it has a much darker undertone.

Not all social media is created equal. Depending on how they’re put to use, these platforms can serve as invaluable educational resources. Excessive social media use, as a substitute for going outside, is the real issue that studies show.

As state education systems become increasingly politicized, social media can give curious minds access to alternative perspectives that will help them make sense of the world for themselves. While recently social media algorithms have pushed people into more radical politics, the solution is to change the algorithm, not the user.

My teen years were shaped by non-mainstream thinkers from across the political spectrum. At that time, the UK had a centrist government and a narrow Overton window. In the classroom, there were ‘politically correct’ and ‘politically incorrect’ opinions. To explore views the British commentariat either ignored or scorned, I looked to YouTube. The Oxford and Cambridge debates I found there at fifteen took every viewpoint as worthy of criticism, debate, and rebuttal.

As someone who now works in politics, having the ability to watch ‘adult’ debates from a young age expanded my mind and helped me in learning some key skills for the future. This kind of intellectual curiosity is exactly what under-16s should be showing. A blanket ban on usage will only stunt the growth of the next generation.

The philosopher John Stuart Mill argued that the state may only restrict liberty to prevent harm to others, not to protect people from themselves. A teenager on Instagram harms no one but possibly themselves. That, by the oldest principle in liberal democracy, is their business and their parents', not Starmer's.

An aggressive form of state parenting would at least be understandable (though still unfair) if applied across every facet of young people’s lives. At sixteen you can join the army, have a child, and under Labour's own proposals, vote; but apparently you cannot be trusted with Instagram.

The ban doesn’t make sense for teens, but they’re not the only ones who will be affected. Enforcing the ban will require a system for online age verification. Think digital ID checks for the entire population. The House of Lords has even voted to force VPN providers to implement digital ID to close the workaround.

What could possibly go wrong? Data breaches leading to all manner of harm, that’s what.

This level of paternalism isn’t just in British politics. Despite the various flaws exposed by an Australian social media ban, Spain, Greece, and Slovenia are working on bans of their own. France is also expected to implement an under-15s ban. America must resist the pressure of the bipartisan “child safety” coalition in Congress and resist any expansion of KOSA (Kids Online Safety Act). Not only does age-gating the internet push children onto unmoderated dark-web-adjacent sites, it opens up the rest of the population to providing vast amounts of their personal data to social media companies to appease the government.

What Starmer called putting "power back in parents' hands" actually means handing your passport details to a social media company and handing permanent regulatory power to the Secretary of State; with no sunset clause, no parliamentary override, and no expiry date. It is no longer the case that parents get to decide their own social media policy for their children, the government must go above parents in deciding what is best for children. Ultimately, this leads to people having less individual agency when deciding things. The state, apparently, knows better.

Parents should be allowed to decide what their children see. If they want to use YouTube as an educational tool for their kids, they should be allowed to do so at any age. As things stand, a child aged fifteen would be able to watch Baby Shark videos on YouTube Kids, but be barred from accessing a college lecture.

America was built on freedom and individual rights. It is for that reason, it is one of the most prosperous countries in the world. U.S. lawmakers should resist the urge to follow the rest of the world into overregulation, paternalism, and mass surveillance. Britain is discovering what happens when the state appoints itself the parent of a nation. America was founded precisely to prevent that.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 02:00

Spain's World Cup Hero Rocks 'Make Spain Great Again' Hat

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Spain are the world champions again. Ferran Torres came off the bench and smashed home the only goal of the 2026 World Cup final in the 106th minute against Argentina. The next day, as the open-top bus rolled through Madrid and nearly two million Spaniards packed the streets, the hero of the final stood shirtless, draped in the national flag, and wearing a bright red baseball cap that read "Make Spain Great Again."

The image spread instantly. It was impossible to miss the deliberate echo of President Donald Trump's signature slogan. Trump himself had been on the pitch the night before at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, presenting the trophy and medals to Spain's players after their hard-fought 1-0 extra-time victory.

Torres later said of the winning goal: "I think in the end the goal came from 47 million people, not just those of us that are here. Today destiny was written, it was made for us to win. We're far from our people today but we tried to be as close as possible to them."

?BREAKING: Spanish footballer, Ferran Torres, wore a "Make Spain Great Again" cap at their World Cup celebration

The far-left Spanish government does NOT represent the people! ?? pic.twitter.com/8eYnve2x1Y

— Inevitable West (@Inevitablewest) July 20, 2026

The far-left government of Pedro Sánchez does not speak for those 47 million. Many Spaniards are fiercely patriotic. They do not like what is being done to their country.

?? | Ferrán Torres con su gorra de «Make Spain Great Again» durante la celebración del Mundial en Madrid. pic.twitter.com/qvo9kpNhl1

— ???Q??s (@herqles_es) July 20, 2026

While the players celebrated a second World Cup title, the same government that waved them off continues to flood Spain with mass illegal immigration, grant amnesties to hundreds of thousands of undocumented arrivals, and watch as public services buckle and crime statistics turn ugly.

In April, Sánchez's socialists pushed through a royal decree granting legal status, work permits, and benefits to roughly half a million illegal migrants - potentially as many as 800,000. The result was immediate chaos. Thousands of military-aged men swarmed consulates in Madrid, Bilbao, and Almería, clambering over security gates and forming kilometre-long queues to obtain the paperwork needed for the amnesty.

Registry offices across the country collapsed under the pressure. Migrants camped overnight. Local officials reported daily requests at social services centres jumping from 1,500 to 5,500 in Madrid alone. Municipal unions warned of "extraordinary pressure" and deteriorating service quality. One official, Jose Fernandez, said bluntly: "I think a hasty decision was made, perhaps even intended to create a collapse."

Days later the scenes grew more extreme. Crowds of undocumented migrants stormed the Gambian embassy in Madrid, scaling walls and fences in desperation to secure documents under the same regularisation process.

Patriots who dared to protest the amnesty were met with violence. In Granada, roughly 40 left-wing extremists tried to shut down a Vox rally. Red paint was thrown, police formed cordons, and Vox leader Santiago Abascal had to confront the mob himself.

"They are preventing us from carrying out this act freely," he said. Abascal has repeatedly described the policy as an "invasion" that is accelerating the "thirdworldization" of Spain. "Tomorrow this chaos will move to the health centres, to the social services, to the real estate agencies... It's already happening. Our priority is to reverse it, radically."

Sánchez defends the amnesty as "an act of justice and a necessity." In a letter to citizens he claimed migrants "already form part of our everyday lives" and insisted Spain "is the daughter of migration and will not become the mother of xenophobia."

Globalist money man Alex Soros publicly praised him, declaring the move showed "what real leadership looks like" and adding, "We need more elected leaders like him!"

Ordinary Spaniards see something very different. A July 2025 poll for El Mundo found 70 percent support mass deportation of illegal immigrants - including majorities of Socialist voters. Support reached 92 percent among Popular Party voters and 89 percent among Vox supporters.

The crime data explains why. Foreigners in Spain commit five times more rapes and four times more murders per capita than Spanish citizens. They make up 31 percent of the prison population.

In Catalonia, migrants - 17 percent of the population - account for 91 percent of convicted rapists. Rape reports nationwide have tripled in six years, from 1,878 in 2019 to 5,206 in 2024. Over the last decade the increase stands at 322 percent, far above the EU average of 150 percent.

This is the Spain that Ferran Torres and his teammates returned to as champions. A country whose people still wave the flag, still fill the streets in the millions for a national team victory, and still remember how to sing songs the authorities would prefer they forgot.

During the Euro 2024 semi-final against France, Spanish fans joined others in belting out a controversial melody that UEFA had tried to ban because right-wing crowds had turned it into an anthem against mass migration.

The contrast could not be sharper. On the pitch and in the streets of Madrid, Spaniards celebrated national excellence and belonging. In the corridors of power, the Sánchez government continues to prioritise open borders, globalist applause, and the steady erosion of the very identity that produced a world-beating football team.

President Donald J. Trump presents the World Cup Trophy to Spain, the 2026 @FIFAWorldCup Champions! ? pic.twitter.com/SHsoBhYm1b

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 19, 2026

Trump, who handed over the trophy, later said of his interactions with Spanish officials: "I spoke to Spain and I congratulated them on having a great team. I really spoke to a lot of people. I have no tension with him. I have no tension with anybody."

? PRESIDENT TRUMP ON PEDRO SÁNCHEZ:

"I spoke to Spain and I congratulated them on having a great team. I really spoke to a lot of people.

I have no tension with him. I have no tension with anybody." pic.twitter.com/bQIYrbtW4f

— America News (@AmericaPartyX) July 20, 2026

The tension that matters is not between presidents. It is between a far-left elite that treats national identity as an embarrassment and a people who still know what it means to make Spain great again.

Torres did not need a press conference. The red cap said enough. For millions of Spaniards watching their services strain, their streets change, and their crime statistics climb, the message landed exactly as intended.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 23:25

'Birthright Senatorship'? - Graham's Sister Announces Bid For Full Term As Mace Opts Out

Three days after President Trump publicly urged her to run, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham on Monday afternoon announced that -- unsatisfied with serving as an obviously unqualified interim senator through January -- she will run for the full six-year-term that starts in January. The development seemed to brush another potential candidate off the plate, but another one joined the field on Monday. Possibly seeing Trump's endorsement as too ridiculous to be fully intimidating, others may join a field that officially has five candidates.  

Hard pass. Birthright senatorship is idiotic. https://t.co/RRQbCrNEDl

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) July 20, 2026

Graham's sister made the announcement on Sean Hannity's Fox News show on Monday night, but a clip of her declaring that she'd run was posted earlier that afternoon, perhaps with the intent to discourage other candidates from filing when the window officially opens today; it closes on Tuesday the 28th: 

“I’ve made a decision. I’m in... I can’t see it any other way. I just don’t. I’ve thought, and I’ve prayed, and he’s worked so hard for so long. I just, I can’t just let that die. I’ve got to step in and carry on his legacy. I know he cared about the people of South Carolina so deeply. He worked so hard for them, and I feel like I can do that, too.”

To be clear, Lindsey Graham's "legacy" centers on relentless advocacy for bloody, expensive and often counterproductive regime-change interventions around the globe, to include collaborating with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to persuade Trump to launch a war on Iran on false premises, and fostering the ouster of Ukraine's democratically-elected president before then leading the charge to pour billions of dollars of weapons into an economy-damaging proxy war against Russia. 

I cannot begin to fathom having no political involvement, tragically losing my brother or sister, and then a week later launching a political campaign saying I deserve their seat.

The elites don’t care about representing us. To them voting is just an annoying formality. https://t.co/QTk48IHnOb

— Dan Bostic (@danbostic) July 21, 2026

The start of the new week also brought us a rebranding of Graham's sister. When South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to be a placeholder for the remainder of her brother's term that ends in January -- and in the days since -- she was universally referred to as Darline Nordone or Darline Graham Nordone. With her announcement, she's suddenly "Darline Graham," even though she remains married to Larry Nordone, about whom very little is publicly known.

The Darline Graham relabeling is obviously meant to capitalize on name recognition, which, aside from the Trump endorsement, is her only political asset. She has never held an elected office. She's commissioner of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, and previously held a communications role in the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department.  Ever the Trump today, Hannity tried using Monday's softball interview to polish Darline Graham's thin resume. "You've had your own life and success," he said. "You have been the commissioner of South Carolina's commission for the blind. You've held this position since 2019. It's a 130 person agency, $90 million budget you ran, 10 offices across South Carolina ... you've got a lot of experience."  

Darline Graham, who seemingly buys her ladies' US-flag brooches at the same place as Mark Levin, called herself Darline Nordone up until Monday

At least one potential opponent seemed to find Trump's endorsement sufficiently threatening: Rep. Nancy Mace, who's poised to hand over her House seat in January after having foregone reelection for a failed bid for governor, had teased at a run on social media within hours of Lindsey Graham's death. On Monday, however, Mace announced she will not enter the GOP special primary election that will take place on Aug. 11, with a potential run-off of the top two finishers on Aug 25. “I’m not running for the U.S. Senate, not because I’m backing down from a fight, but because the one I’m already in matters right now,” she said, referring to her work on laws to protect women and girls who are victims of sexual misconduct. 

Undaunted, Congressman Russell Fry jumped into the race on Monday. Fry was reportedly hand-picked by Trump to unseat Republican Tom Rice in 2022, as payback for Rice's vote to impeach Trump over the Jan 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riot. He won and is considered close to the Trump team. “There is no other way to put it: Lindsey Graham was one of a kind. There is no replacing him. But I believe the best way to honor his legacy is to fight alongside the President just as steadfastly as he did,” Fry said in a statement. Hedging his bets, Fry will also continue pursuing reelection to the House.   

South Carolina - meet your new Lisa Murkowski!

She will be the Senator that represents your grandchildren.

And you had no say in it at all. https://t.co/AfmCebOhlX

— Dan Bostic (@danbostic) July 20, 2026

Nordone Graham and Fry join a field that includes businessman Mark Lynch, who was trounced by Lindsey Graham in the June GOP primary; Duke Buckner, a lawyer who has previously run for the state's heavily-Democratic 6th Congressional District seat; and US Rep. Ralph Norman. At 73 years old, Norman's age might be a liability, but he's picked up endorsements from Florida Sen. Rick Scott, Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Turning Point Action and Nancy Mace. 

The winner will go up against Democrat pediatrician Annie Andrews, who previously failed to unseat Mace, and who has founded a PAC focusing on issues like climate change, gun control and voting rights. Before Lindsey Graham suddenly died on July 11 from an aortic dissection, the Cook Political Report rated the South Carolina seat "Solid R." That's unlikely to change no matter who wins the Aug 11 GOP primary.

The big question is whether Trump's endorsement and outside spending in a very short race can overcome Darline Graham's lack of credentials -- and perhaps some reluctance among South Carolina Republicans to see their Senate seat treated like inheritable property. So far there's no indication there will be a debate among the candidates. That's a shame for South Carolina voters, but Darline Graham must be relieved that she won't have to face at least four other candidates and a moderator grilling her on a variety of national and international issues she likely knows very little about and has even less experience articulating. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 23:00

Data Centers Were Responsible For 46% Of PJM's Last Four Capacity Auction Costs

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

Data centers are responsible for $6.3 billion, or 38%, of the $16.4 billion in charges from the PJM Interconnection’s just-held capacity auction, Joseph Bowring, president of Monitoring Analytics, said in an email to Utility Dive. Monitoring Analytics is the grid operator’s independent market monitor.

In PJM’s last four base capacity auctions, data center-driven capacity charges totaled $29.4 billion — 46% of the $63.6 billion in total capacity charges in that period, Bowring said. Monitoring Analytics plans to publish its analysis of the most recent auction in a few weeks, he said.

PJM isn’t fully grappling with the ramifications of data center development, according to Bowring. “PJM is continuing to act like it’s business as usual,” he said in an interview on Friday. “You have to open your eyes and recognize that it is really a paradigm shift, and failing to do that imposes costs on other customers.”

Ratepayers in PJM are not only paying capacity charges for existing and potential data centers, they are paying for higher energy and transmission costs data centers have caused, according to Bowring.

PJM’s capacity auctions and the price of electricity has become a major political issue in the grid operator’s footprint, which includes 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states and the District of Columbia. In September, governors from PJM states formed a collaborative to advocate for their interests with the grid operator.

On March 4, Google, Meta, Microsoft and other data center companies pledged at the White House that they would protect consumers from price hikes due to data center energy and infrastructure requirements.

However, meeting that pledge is impossible in PJM under its current rules, according to Bowring.

“There’s only one way to do what hyperscalers agree is the right thing to do, and that is to run a separate auction,” Bowring said. “That’s good for the hyperscalers … because it allows them to get capacity and be served reliably, and it’s good for other customers because it separates out the impact from the data center.”

First, data centers and other large loads should contract for their own generation, according to a proposal the market monitor made last month as part of PJM’s fast-track stakeholder process for a backstop reliability auction. For those that can’t bring their own generation, PJM should hold separate auctions to procure their capacity supplies under 15-year contracts, Bowring said.

PJM buys capacity ahead of time — normally three years in advance — based on its demand forecast. However, it is unclear exactly how much data center load will materialize, adding uncertainty to the forecast.

While PJM has tried to make its data center forecasts more accurate, there is growing opposition to data centers across the United States, with some major projects getting canceled, Morningstar DBRS said in a report released Monday.

“As states consider new taxes, restrictions, and moratoriums on data center growth, escalating stakeholder opposition could become a material credit factor, potentially weakening data center project credit quality by reducing development visibility, increasing regulatory risk, and challenging assumptions around the pace and certainty of future AI-driven capacity expansion,” the credit ratings agency said.

Under Monitoring Analytics’ auction proposal, removing data centers — and the uncertainty around their future loads — from the base capacity auction ensures ratepayers won’t pay for unneeded capacity.

PJM’s board is developing a backstop auction proposal for data centers that it aims to file with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission this month so the auction can take place in September.

Under a plan that received the most support in the stakeholder process, utilities and other load-serving entities, and potentially data centers themselves, would ask PJM to buy a specific amount of capacity in a one-time auction. PJM staff proposed that it would procure in a one-time auction the shortfall from its last base capacity auction — about 6.8 GW.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 22:35

CIA Distances Itself From Trump's Iran War With Media Leak

It seems that CIA and other US intelligence officials hope to distance themselves from Trump's Iran war, now with the US-initiated conflict having dragged on for nearly five months (with no end in sight), after White House officials had in the opening days touted a swift, limited military excursion. 

They are leaking intelligence to the press which shows they have assessed that current American strikes on Iran are unlikely to change Iran's negotiating position. With tankers in Hormuz on fire and others too afraid to move, Iran is vowing that it will keep its leverage over the strait at all costs.

The Washington Post report says that "Iran's government is unlikely to feel significant impact or soften its negotiating position as a result of new rounds of U.S. military strikes like those now underway, according to a new intelligence assessment described by current and former U.S. officials."

To a large degree this intel assessment is stating the obvious, which should have been well understood far in advance. It seems intel officials want to get it on record that they predict a quagmire as the White House seeks to extricate itself and the global economy from the crisis (of its own making) in the Gulf. Escalation in air strikes will only further stalemate the situation, the intel analysis forecasts. 

Stating the obvious is further on full display in lines from the WaPo report like the following: "Analysts at American spy agencies also have concluded that Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war, the officials said — an uneasy dynamic given the increasingly deadly nature of the tit-for-tat hostilities between the two nations. The current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the assessments because of their sensitivity."

President Trump has reportedly been briefed on the assessment. According to more:

The latest intelligence report was written primarily by the CIA, where analysts have underscored the Tehran regime's staying power despite the loss of many of its top leaders and much of its military hardware to U.S. and Israeli attacks. In May, a CIA analysis concluded that Iran could survive a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship.

As of Monday, Trump previewed harder hits on Iran to come after the killing of multiple US troops in Jordan and neighboring Iraq. At least two died during a ballistic missile attack in Jordan, while one service member was killed in northern Iraq.

Intelligence agencies don’t need to report on what’s obvious to the naked eye https://t.co/SiH44i1Qj5

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) July 21, 2026

Again, here's more of the obvious from the Post report:

Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East, said that the Trump administration appears to believe that if it keeps hitting Iran harder militarily, Tehran eventually will become more flexible. “That assessment is almost certainly incorrect,” said Panikoff, senior director at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Iran’s government has repeatedly shown that its number one priority is survival of the regime, and that it is willing to suffer blows despite the harm to its people and economy, he said.

It's quite the irony when the hawks have lost even the Atlantic Council.

But a number of more independent-minded analysts have predicted this would spiral into a quagmire from day one.

Trump Bubble still believes Iran will break if they keep bombing it, because that's how it's supposed to work. Langley assesses Iran won't break & Trump is an idiot, and they want it public so that CIA isn't blamed when shit goes bad to worse.https://t.co/2hqS0xJj7z

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 21, 2026

"We need to give honest answers to direct questions like this," University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape said Sunday. "The bottom line is there's absolutely no doubt President Trump underestimated Iran."

"We are still continuing to underestimate, in my opinion," Pape said. "We're having a very hard time, as countries do, seeing the nationalist fighters on the other side of the battlefield. And those are burning quite bright now in Iran."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 22:10

DOJ Probing Harvard Over Financial Aid Programs Linked To China-Based Sources

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department (DOJ) said on July 20 that it was investigating whether Harvard University violated Title VI by excluding American students from financial aid programs funded by China-based sources.

Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass., on July 4, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

The DOJ announced that Harvard's foreign funding disclosures raised concerns about its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits discrimination based on national origin.

Universities are required by federal law to report gifts and contracts from foreign sources that exceed $250,000 in a year. Harvard had disclosed nearly $4.5 billion in foreign funding, of which $630 million came from sources based in China - the university's largest source of foreign funding - the department said.

According to the DOJ, Harvard appears to accept funds from China-based sources that require the university to establish financial aid programs "with preference given to students from particular countries."

"Schools cannot take federal dollars and then turn around and accept money from foreign sources to give financial aid that deliberately excludes American citizens - doing so is illegal, and we will stop it wherever we find it," Harmeet K. Dhillon, assistant attorney general of the DOJ's Civil Rights Division, said in the statement.

The department said it notified Harvard of its compliance review through a notice letter but emphasized that it has not reached any conclusions about the investigation.

Dhillon said in the letter that the investigation would focus on "possible national origin discrimination" in Harvard's student aid and benefits arising from "restrictions in grants and gifts received by Harvard from foreign funding sources."

Harvard said in a statement to news outlets that it was reviewing the DOJ's notice.

"Harvard follows the law for required reporting of donations and, consistent with our legal obligations under Title VI, does not unlawfully discriminate on the basis of race, ethnicity, or national origin in allocating financial aid," the university said.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said that education cooperation between the two nations is mutually beneficial.

The Ivy League university has been at the center of broader federal efforts to enforce anti-discrimination laws under Title VI. Last year, federal officials opened an investigation into reports that the Harvard Law Review employed "race-based criteria" for its journal membership and article selection process.

In March, the Education Department launched two probes into Harvard, one to determine whether the university used race-based preferences in its admissions process and another to investigate allegations of ongoing anti-Semitic harassment on campus due to the war in Gaza.

Harvard has made public its internal reviews addressing anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim incidents, and said it is in compliance with federal civil rights laws while working to foster an inclusive campus.

Kimberly Hayek and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 21:45

Oklo, X-Energy Join $200 Million Federal Nuclear Push For AI: Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports that reactor developers Oklo and X-energy are joining a $200 million Trump administration-led program designed to speed new nuclear power plants for artificial intelligence data centers.

Details could be announced Wednesday at a Department of Energy AI energy summit. Microsoft and Nvidia are also involved in the previously announced initiative, while several DOE national laboratories and the University of Texas at Austin are slated to share $60 million over three years, according to a document seen by Bloomberg.

“Among the goals of the latest initiative are steep reductions in time needed to design, license and build new plants, as well as cuts in the number of staff needed to run them”

X-energy jumped as much as 12% after hours, while Oklo gained as much as 9.9%.

The program reportedly targets steep reductions in the time and workforce required to design, license, build and operate reactors. It would join a rapidly expanding federal nuclear support stack:

• Westinghouse fleet program: At least $80 billion of aggregate project value for new AP1000 reactors, with the government arranging financing and facilitating approvals.

• US-Japan partnership: Up to $40 billion of Japanese-backed investment for GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 projects in Tennessee and Alabama.

• Gen III+ SMRs: $800 million in cost-shared DOE awards, split between TVA’s BWRX-300 project and Holtec’s SMR-300 project.

• Reactor Pilot Program: An expedited DOE authorization pathway for 11 initial projects, with developers responsible for project costs.

• Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program: Roughly $3.2 billion in federal cost-share commitments for TerraPower’s Natrium and X-energy’s Xe-100 demonstrations.

Compared with those capital-heavy programs, the new $200 million effort appears aimed at a different choke point: potentially using AI, federal labs and industry partnerships to compress the paperwork and engineering timelines standing between reactor designs and power-hungry data centers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 21:20

India Keeps Buying Russian Oil At Near-Record Pace Despite Expired Waiver

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

India's crude oil imports have remained close to record-high levels in July despite the end of the U.S. waiver the previous month.

The U.S. quietly let the waiver allowing the purchase of Russian oil loaded on tankers expire on June 17, just as the U.S. and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding to continue negotiations on a deal.

Yet, Indian imports of Russian crude has continued to flow in July, many of which may have been cargoes that were arranged during the window covered by the U.S. waiver.

So India's imports of crude oil from Russia have averaged 2.45 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this month, according to data by Kpler cited by Indian media.

The July imports from Russia are not far off the record high level of 2.64 million bpd in June, when India boosted purchases from Russia, encouraged by the U.S. waiver that has been extended by a month a few times since March.

The Iran war and the Hormuz crisis further cemented Russia's position as the single largest crude oil supplier to India

So far in July, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has ranked second, supplying an average of 617,000 bpd, while Saudi Arabia has been India's third largest supplier with 586,000 bpd in early July, per Kpler data.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have workarounds to ship crude from terminals outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has redirected most of its shipments to the Yanbu export port on the Red Sea, while the UAE has relied on a pipeline to Fujairah and ship-to-ship transfers on tankers offshore Oman and the UAE east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Going forward, Russian crude will remain a key source of oil supply for India even if the U.S. doesn't renew the waiver for Russian crude already loaded on tankers, analysts say.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 20:55