Zero Rss

AI Purge Accelerates: Intuit Reportedly Slashing 17% Of Workforce

Intuit, the company that owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp, is reportedly preparing to lay off a staggering 17% of its workforce according to Reuters, which cites an internal memo.

INTUIT TO LAY OFF 17% OF WORKFORCE: MEMO

Initial claims about to print new record low

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2026

Details are scant at the moment regarding the reason for the layoffs, but CEO Sasan Goodarzi sent an email to staff earlier in the day, saying that reducing complexity and simplifying the structure would help it deliver better ​products, to streamline operations and sharpen focus ​on its key bets including its AI efforts.

The company has signed multi-year deals with AI startups Anthropic and ​OpenAI to integrate their AI models into its software and add Intuit's personalized tax, finance, ‌accounting and ⁠marketing capabilities into Claude and ChatGPT.

Bloomberg data shows Intuit's total workforce was around 18,200 in mid-2025. If those figures are still accurate, the layoffs could affect upwards of 3,000 employees.

As of Tuesday's close, Intuit shares were down nearly 40% on the year amid AI fears disrupting the software stocks.

Shares are down 2% in premarket trading.

Analysts are mostly bullish…

Related:

• Meta Axes 8,000 Workers As Zuckerberg Admits AI Is Watching, Replacing Labor

The last day for impacted staff at Intuit in the United States will be July 31 and they will receive 16 weeks of base pay and two extra weeks for every year at Intuit as part of ​the severance package, the ​memo on Wednesday ⁠showed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:35

Trump Retains Dominant Influence: 4 Takeaways From Tuesday's Primary Elections

Authored by Joseph Lord, Jeff Louderback, Troy Myers, and Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

Voters on Tuesday headed to the polls in states across the country for some of the most-anticipated battles of the 2026 midterm election season.

May 19 marks the largest day of primary elections yet, seeing ballots cast across six states: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

The night continued past trends showing that President Donald Trump retains a dominant influence over the Republican Party, as his chosen candidates sailed to victory in race after race—with one Republican incumbent in a major race being defeated.

Democrats, meanwhile, locked in their picks for several key congressional races, as the party works to reclaim the House and possibly the Senate.

Here are the biggest takeaways from the night.

Massie Unseated

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost his Republican primary to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, concluding one of the most-watched (and most expensive) primary battles of the 2026 election cycle.

President Donald Trump had endorsed Gallrein as part of his effort to get Massie removed from Congress.

Trump was openly critical of Massie and urged people in Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District to elect Gallrein.

Gallrein had tallied 54 percent of the votes compared to 45 percent for Massie when The Associated Press called the race at 7:54 p.m. ET.

Massie’s ousting is seen as underscoring Republican voters’ support for Trump.

The Kentucky lawmaker, who’s been at odds with Trump over several issues, joins Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and several Indiana state senators who were defeated by primary challengers backed by Trump in recent weeks.

Gallrein, in his victory speech, vowed to work closely with the president in Congress.

“We have a saying on the family farm that it’s a contact sport,” Gallrein said at an election night event in Covington, Kentucky. “I can tell you that campaigning is one as well, folks.”

Kentucky, Alabama Open Senate Primaries

In Kentucky and Alabama, voters went to the polls to cast ballots in open Senate primaries for seats being vacated by their incumbents.

Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) will face former Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press called the Republican primary race for Barr at 7 p.m. ET, an hour after polls closed. Barr won with 60.5 percent of the vote to 30.8 percent for the next closest rival, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

On the Democratic side, Booker—who previously served as Democrat’s nominee for the post in 2022—won with 46.8 percent of the vote. His closest rival, 2020 Democratic nominee Amy McGrath, trails with 35.8 percent of the vote. The race was called at 9:41 p.m. ET.

The primary marks the first time in 16 years that the state has seen a fully open race for a Kentucky Senate seat. The last such primary took place in 2010, when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won his first election to Congress.

McConnell, 84, was first elected to his seat in 1984. He had served as the leader of the Republican Senate conference since January 2007 before agreeing to step down at the start of the current Congress.

Meanwhile, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Trump’s pick to replace outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), will advance to a runoff, as he fell short of the 50 percent needed to forgo the second election.

The Republican he’ll face is still being determined as votes are counted.

Trump has called Moore “a true America First Patriot who’s been with me from the very beginning.”

Georgia Republican Races Go to Runoff

Voters in the Peach State sent Republican candidates in Georgia’s gubernatorial and Senate elections to a runoff.

Trump-endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire businessman Rick Jackson will go to a runoff in Georgia’s gubernatorial primary contest.

Jones and Jackson received 37 percent and 34 percent of the vote, respectively, when the Associated Press called the runoff at 8:50 p.m. ET, as neither managed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote in what became a costly contest for the GOP field.

Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger came in third with 14 percent of the vote.

Another competitive Georgia Republican contest is also on its way to a second round.

As of 9:50 p.m. ET on May 19, none of the major candidates in the state’s Senate GOP primary—Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Rep. Earl “Buddy” Carter (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley—had claimed more than 50 percent of the vote in the Senate primary.

At 9:44 p.m. ET, the Associated Press declared that Collins will advance to the runoff. It later declared that Dooley will face him in that race.

As of 11:52 p.m., Collins had received 40.5 percent of the vote. Dooley followed with 30.1 percent, while Carter trailed in third with 25.2 percent.

The runoff was expected ahead of Election Day, as polling generally did not show any candidate with a majority.

Bernadette Breslin, the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told The Epoch Times in an exclusive statement that “Republicans are united behind defeating Ossoff and retiring his record of failure for Georgia.”

Trump has not given an endorsement in the Senate race.

The runoff elections are set for June 16.

Pennsylvania Democrats Make Picks in Key Swing Districts

While observers’ focus was largely centered on Republican races during this round of voting, Democratic candidates were also locked in for several key swing districts during the May 19 elections.

It’s unclear whether Democrats can overcome Republicans’ steep 53-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, and the party is instead focusing its major efforts this cycle on the House, where Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the majority by observers.

In Pennsylvania, three Democratic candidates endorsed by Gov. Josh Shapiro won their elections, including Janelle Stelson, Bob Harvie, and Bob Brooks.

The three candidates will take on Republican opponents in the November general election, in seats that include some of the party’s top targets.

Stelson will go up against Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Harvie against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), and Brooks against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.).

Shapiro himself is seeking reelection this year, running for the gubernatorial nomination unopposed. Shapiro’s approach to politics has been viewed as moderate by voters in the state, propelling him to a sweeping double-digit victory in his 2022 election, giving his endorsement some weight in state politics.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:05

NANO Nuclear's Reactor Construction Permit Accepted For Review

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has formally begun its review of the construction permit application for an advanced microreactor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 

✅ #NRCNews: We've kicked off the formal review of the @UofIllinois application for an advanced microreactor. https://t.co/0gMFCuDv5u

— NRC (@NRCgov) May 19, 2026

The announcement marks the transition from the agency’s acceptance review to the substantive technical evaluation of NANO Nuclear’s KRONOS design.

This step carries more weight than the initial filing. Submitting an application demonstrates readiness on paper; the NRC’s decision to open a full review confirms the submission meets the threshold for detailed scrutiny. 

For a first-of-a-kind microreactor project, clearing that gate is a concrete regulatory advance.

We've tracked the Illinois project closely, including the construction permit application submission itself, described at the time as a defining moment for commercial microreactor deployment. Earlier coverage in October 2025 detailed the start of drilling and site preparation work with the university. 

We've also detailed other updates from the company including their recent MOU with Supermicro and progress with their high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) transportation package.

The KRONOS effort is also not occurring in isolation. Other advanced reactor programs have recorded measurable NRC milestones in recent months with TerraPower’s Natrium reactor in Wyoming receiving its construction permit and X-energy achieving a notable environmental clearance for its four-unit Xe-100 project at Dow’s Seadrift site in Texas.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 08:35

Trump's IRS Settlement Bars Tax Audits Of Trump & Family

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The acting head of the U.S. Department of Justice said on May 19 that the agency added new terms favorable to President Donald Trump to the settlement of the president’s lawsuit over alleged IRS leaking of his tax returns.

In a one-page addendum to the settlement, Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche said on May 19 that the IRS would no longer pursue claims against Trump, members of his family, or his businesses over allegedly unpaid taxes.

The May 18 settlement, in which the president agreed to drop a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS, provided that an almost $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund would be established to compensate alleged victims of the weaponization of law enforcement.

Trump, two of his sons, and the Trump family business, had sued in federal court in Florida in January, alleging that the IRS and its parent agency, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, had failed to prevent a former contractor from leaking Trump’s tax returns to the media.

The plaintiffs alleged the agencies failed to take mandatory precautions to prevent the former IRS contractor from unlawfully obtaining access to their confidential tax records and giving that information to The New York Times and ProPublica between 2019 and 2020.

As part of the settlement, the plaintiffs themselves will receive “a formal apology but no monetary payment or damages of any kind,” the DOJ said in a May 18 statement.

The plaintiffs agreed to drop their claims “in exchange for the creation of this fund,” and in addition they agreed to withdraw two administrative claims they filed for damages “resulting from the unlawful raid of Mar-a-Lago and the Russia-collusion hoax.”

“The machinery of government should never be weaponized against any American, and it is this Department’s intention to make right the wrongs that were previously done while ensuring this never happens again,” Blanche said in the statement.

“As part of this settlement, we are setting up a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress,” he said.

The May 19 release states that the federal government is “forever barred and precluded” from moving forward with “examinations” of Trump, “related or affiliated individuals,” and related companies and trusts. The document covers “tax returns filed before the effective date” of the settlement, which was May 18.

The settlement provides that the Anti-Weaponization Fund will be controlled by five individuals whose appointment will be announced by the attorney general within 30 days.

One of the fund’s members will be selected in consultation with congressional leadership.

The members are to serve until the fund is “concluded,” unless they resign or are removed by the president, who will be allowed to dismiss any member without providing a reason, according to the settlement.

The fund will establish its own rules for “submitting, receiving, processing, and granting or denying claims,” subject to procedures it may make public at its own discretion.

The settlement states that the fund will have the authority “to issue formal apologies, issue monetary relief owed to claimants as a result of their legal rights, grant claims in whole or in part, deny claims in whole or in part, defer review of claims, and receive and request evidence or other support for claims, including requesting information from, or consulting with, federal agencies.”

During congressional testimony on May 19, Blanche told lawmakers that those who experienced “weaponization” may receive payments. He declined to promise that the fund would refrain from making payments to Trump campaign donors or individuals involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, security breach at the U.S. Capitol.

Blanche said Trump did not set up the settlement fund and the members of the fund will act independently.

“The president did not direct me to do anything,” he said, adding that payments could go to members of any political party, and would not be limited to Jan. 6 defendants.

Critics in Congress moved swiftly to condemn the addendum. Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, argued that the settlement clause runs afoul of a statute that makes it unlawful for executive branch officials to direct the IRS to open or close an audit targeting any individual taxpayer. Under the statute, coverage extends to the president and vice president, their respective office staffs, and cabinet-level officials — though the attorney general is specifically carved out of the definition. Wyden closed his statement with a direct warning, according to CNBC, saying neither the president nor his chosen legal counsel could place his relatives beyond legal accountability.

On the House side, Ways and Means ranking member Richard Neal posted to social media labeling the addendum outright "corruption," charging that Trump had converted the executive branch into a shield for his own finances, according to CNN.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) was critical of the fledgling fund and how it will be administered.

“What we’re talking about is nothing short of the sitting president of the United States looting from the Treasury for his own gain,” she said.

“Do you seriously think this arrangement is appropriate?” Murray added.

Defending the clause to CNBC, a department spokeswoman framed it as routine legal practice. "As is customary in settlements, both sides have executed waivers of a variety of claims that were or could have been brought," she wrote in an email, adding that the restriction applied only to audits already open at the time of signing and would not prevent future IRS scrutiny.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 08:20

Meta Axes 8,000 Workers As Zuckerberg Admits AI Is Watching, Replacing Labor

Welcome to another day of corporate America hemorrhaging engineers and other white-collar workers with insurmountable student debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered in history as the great "white-collar purge," and the response will be continued hatred of data centers.

We've been covering for weeks that today is D-Day for Meta Platforms employees, who have finally learned their employment fate at the company that owns Facebook and Instagram.

Bloomberg reports that the new round of layoffs affects roughly 8,000 roles globally, with engineering and product teams expected to be at the center of the cuts as CEO Mark Zuckerberg reduces labor in favor of GPUs.

This latest round of cuts is expected to hit Meta's engineering and product teams in particular, and additional layoffs could come later in the year, said people familiar with the company's plans, who asked not to be named as the information is not public. -BBG

The layoffs follow Meta's reassignment of about 7,000 employees into newly created AI-focused teams on Monday.

The X account, Official Layoff, posted leaked audio of an all-hands emergency at Meta earlier this week, in which Zuck told employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models. In other words, those workers are training chatbots to eventually render them obsolete.

Official Layoff added more color about Monday's meeting:

LEAKED AUDIO FROM META ALL-HANDS AHEAD OF LAYOFFS TOMORROW

Mark Zuckerberg, in his own words, told Meta employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models.

His reasoning? Meta employees are smarter than the contract workers the rest of the industry uses for data labeling. So instead of hiring outside help, Meta is turning its own workforce into training data.

"The average intelligence of the people who are at this company is significantly higher than the average set of people that you can get to do tasks if you're working through these contractors."

He wants the AI to learn how "really smart people use computers" by watching employees work. He says the content is "stripped out" and none of it is used for surveillance or performance tracking.

Then he admitted the rollout was botched but said Meta intentionally kept employees in the dark because leaking competitive AI strategy would help rivals.

"It is not strategically in your interest for us to communicate everything in all the detail that we normally would on this."

Translation: We're watching you, we told you as little as possible, and we did it on purpose.

AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee.

This story and this company keeps getting weirder.

LEAKED AUDIO FROM META ALL-HANDS AHEAD OF LAYOFFS TOMORROW

Mark Zuckerberg, in his own words, told Meta employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models.

His reasoning? Meta employees are smarter than the contract workers the rest of the industry uses for data… https://t.co/VSPdjHZ2ga pic.twitter.com/3TX0vLP8P3

— Official Layoff (@LayoffAI) May 19, 2026

Related coverage:

• D-Day For "Huuuge" Meta Layoffs Looms As AI Job Apocalypse Accelerates

• Meta Plans 20% Layoffs To Divert Capital To Data Centers

• Meta To Unleash First Wave Of Mass Layoffs May 20 As It Eliminates 10% Of Its Workers

Meta Workforce ... 

Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely scary for white-collar America, where many are saturated with student debt.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 08:05

Futures Rise Ahead Of Critical Nvidia Earnings As Oil, Bond Yields Drop

US equity futures are higher led by tech as the selloff in bonds eased and traders awaited earnings from Nvidia after the close. As of 7:30am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% while Nasdaq futs rose 0.7% showing optimism heading into the release and overlooking weakness in tech during APAC trade. In premarket trading, NVDA is up 1.8% in premarket trading, as semis see a strong bid with Mag7 names almost all higher. Cyclicals ex-Energy are rallying led by Industrials with Defensives lagging and Staples down. European stocks have edged higher alongside a pullback in energy prices, which saw Brent briefly slip onto a $108/bbl handle. Today is all about NVDA but Fed Minutes this afternoon may provide color on the dissenters from the previous Fed Day. Bond yields in the US and Europe retreated from multiyear highs as traders pared back aggressive bets on interest-rate hikes this year. US yields are 1-3bp lower across the curve, the 10Y dropping to 4.64% from yesterday's high of 4.69%, as the USD sees a mild bid. Brent fell 1.8% toward $109 a barrel with the broader energy complex drops as JPM flags 6.6mm bbls of oil crossing the SoH over the last 24 hours; Precious Metals are also bid with Ags seeing weakness. Tomorrow’s macro releases include Flash PMIs and jobless data.  

In premarket trading, Nvidia is outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks, rising 1.8%, ahead of its much-anticipated first-quarter results report after the market closes. Fellow chip stocks are also gaining (Tesla +1%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%)

• 8x8 (EGHT) jumps 17% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) is up 7.1%. The company raised its annual sales outlook after diners flocked to its restaurants in the first quarter, defying the crunch in consumer budgets that has weighed on the industry.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is up 2.3% after the measurement instruments company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a third-quarter forecast that is above the analyst consensus.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) rises 2.3% after the luxury homebuilder reported second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates and raised its full-year guidance.

In other corporate news, Goldman Sachs is said to have the leading role on the cover of SpaceX’s IPO, with Morgan Stanley also listed as a lead bank. SpaceX expects to proceed with its acquisition of Cursor 30 days after the company begins trading publicly, and if the deal doesn’t go through, SpaceX would pay Cursor a $10 billion breakup fee in cash, BBG reported. Early AI tools are boosting productivity as much as 30%, said JPMorgan, while Standard Chartered’s CEO has sought to reassure staff after a backlash to his remarks on using artificial intelligence to replace “lower-value human capital.” Softbank’s $60 billion bet on OpenAI, and growing unease over Masayoshi Son’s devotion to Sam Altman is today’s The Big Take. 

Futures are higher in early trading as investors digest a backdrop of surging rates volatility, heavily crowded semis exposure and euphoric - and outright manic bubble in the case of Korea - positioning, while some of the most aggressive AI momentum trades globally show signs of strain, even as stocks broadly ignore the historic rout taking place in the bond market, sending 30Y yields to 19 year highs.

A potential strike at Samsung and the words of Jensen Huang are two catalysts in the next 24 hours to keep traders on edge. 

The impending strike at Samsung could add to concerns around supply being able to meet burgeoning demand for AI memory chips in the face of already surging memory prices, at a time inflation is coming for the overcrowded AI trade. 

Nvidia will give a much-anticipated update on the state of the AI economy when it reports after the close. While sales are estimated to have grown 80%, investors will be more focused on what Nvidia has to say about ramping up production and fending off competitors.
Options traders are pricing an implied move of about 5.5% for Nvidia shares in either direction following the results. With the report coming at a time when the roaring rally in chipmakers is coming off the boil, well-received earnings could give the sector fresh momentum and help drive global indexes even higher into superbubble territory.

“The semiconductor rally has stalled, but really is just in a holding pattern until Nvidia reports,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Nvidia can, for now, keep its beat-and-raise machine going, which will reignite the rally in semiconductors.”

Today we also get the minutes of the April 28–29 FOMC meeting which should show that support for removing the easing bias from the statement extended beyond the three dissenters. The minutes should reinforce the market view that the easing cycle is on an extended hold​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​, according to Bloomberg Economics. Fed’s Paulson said she favored holding interest rates steady and conditioned lower borrowing costs on making sustained progress on inflation.

President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack. Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management, said he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s next steps take into account where interest rates are headed, given the current yield levels. “We’re in the thick of the danger zone,” he said.

“Stagflation risk has gone up significantly,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James’s Place. “When we’re talking about increased inflation and falling growth, in that environment, most asset classes will struggle, including bonds.”

In politics, the Republican-led US Senate signaled mounting opposition to continuing the Iran war in a procedural vote Tuesday, reflecting deepening political unease over a conflict that is taking a financial toll on Americans. Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to issue guidance on banking services to undocumented migrants, in a move that could tighten access to the financial system.

Retail is in focus before the market opens, with Target and TJX set to report. Visits to Target stores during the first quarter were up 5.1% from the year prior, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, according to data from Placer.ai. The firm also notes traffic in April rose 5.5% from the previous year.

European stocks edge higher alongside a pullback in energy prices, which saw Brent briefly slip onto a $108/bbl handle. Stock market operator Euronext is among the biggest gainers, while credit checking firm Experian fell on its latest earnings. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Euronext shares gain 7.1%, most since July 2023, after the stock market operator reported what analysts say are strong 1Q earnings, driven by better revenues and costs, with the equity markets division as the main standout
• CSG shares rise as much as 12%, the most since January, after the defense company reported results analysts called strong, saying the market should be relieved after the recent selloff
• Marks & Spencer shares rise as much as 5.5% after the retailer reported a milder drop in adjusted pretax profit than anticipated during FY26, having grappled with a costly cyberattack during the year
• RS Group shares rise as much as 10%, the most since November 2024, after the distributor of electrical and industrial products announced a £100m share buyback and pointed to improving momentum across its major markets
• Playtech shares gain as much as 5.1% after the gaming software maker said it delivered an “excellent trading performance” over the first four months of the year, according to a statement ahead of its annual general meeting
• Ypsomed shares jump as much as 14%, the most since April 2025, after the Swiss maker of injection systems reported better-than-expected financial results and provided guidance that pleased investors
• Severn Trent shares rise as much as 4.9% after the UK water company reported earnings ahead of expectations in FY26 and upgraded its outlook for FY28; peer United Utilities is up 1.3%%, while smaller rival Pennon is trading 1% higher
• Experian shares drop for the first day in five, falling as much as 6%, as the credit checking company’s full-year guidance proves slightly lower than analysts expected
• Orkla falls as much as 8.9% after the Norwegian consumer goods group reported earnings which fell short of expectations. DNB Carnegie sees a “mixed” report, flagging an adjusted Ebit miss and increased margin pressure
• Rusta falls as much as 8.6%, the most since September, after SEB cut its recommendation on the Swedish retailer to hold from buy, saying the stock’s valuation discount has disappeared after a strong rally
• B&M falls as much as 3.9% as Goodbody cut its rating on the European budget retailer to hold from buy. The broker sees tepid earnings as the UK macroeconomic climate deteriorates and poor weather weighs on sales

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for a fourth straight session, heading for their longest losing streak in nearly two months as chip stocks dropped and bonds sold off on inflation concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.3%, with Samsung and TSMC among the the biggest drags. Samsung shares slumped after its labor union said it will go on strike Thursday, a development that pushed the Korean benchmark Kospi lower. Most markets in the region were down, led by Kospi’s 3% decline. Concerns that the US-Iran war may stretch on have lifted global inflation expectations, pushing yields higher. The higher cost of capital may hinder the fast expansion of Asian stocks that have ridden artificial intelligence tailwinds to grow earnings. Stocks also fell in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Australia.

In FX, the greenback has given back some ground after dollar gains pushed EUR/USD to its lowest level since April 7. JPY remains rangebound amid the threat of intervention, with Yen fundamentals still bearish (Supplementary Budget/Energy). Demand at the overnight JGB auction was weak and saw some pressure in JGBs but no real follow-through to the FX space. USD/JPY is unchanged and testing 159.00 to the downside at the time of writing. GBP is a little weaker after soft April inflation data trimmed bets on BoE hikes. GBP/USD moved lower by c. 15pips post-data, now above pre-release levels as it attempts to regain a 1.34 handle. EUR/GBP moved higher by 10pips post-data, a move which swiftly pared amid resistance at 0.8670 and recent energy-related moves. (See 08:40 BST headline for more). EUR is also a touch weaker and seemingly moving lower in tandem with USD strength. EUR/USD -0.1%, the pair delved as low as 1.1583 before attempting to return back to a 1.16 handle, where it has traded throughout the week so far.

US Treasuries yields continue to test levels reminiscent of unnerving times. A sustained selloff in Asia and Europe on Tuesday continued through the US morning until a small relief bid emerged in the afternoon. Still, 30y yield ended the day hovering around 5.17% – the highest level since 2007. 10y yields have pushed past the 4.50% mark that has typically served as a reentry point from oversold territory and are inching closer to 4.75%. Global inflationary concerns, a Middle East crisis and a lack of conviction has led to a perfect storm of stop outs and compounding bearish momentum. The lack of thematic dip buying is likely summed up by sentiment that things look cheap but could look even cheaper. 2s5s10s – something the desk highlighted a few sessions ago – has dramatically cheapened 10bp over the past few days. Wednesday's 20y auction will be a key gauge on the market’s appetite for long-end duration at these levels. The elevated rate environment is bad news for risk assets in a world where debt-fueled capex is high, and this US administration has used tools to indirectly affect dip buying in duration before

This morning treasuries hold gains amid a bigger curve-steepening rally in gilts after UK inflation gauge slowed more than economists estimated. US yields are 2bp-3bp lower on the day, with 5s30s curve steeper by more than 1bp; 10-year is down 2.7bp near session low 4.64%, with UK 10-year lower by more than 8bp, Germany’s by more than 3bp. UK front-end yields remain around 10bp richer on the day heading into the US session, which includes a 20-year bond auction poised to draw the highest yield since October 2023. July WTI crude oil futures, down around 2.5%, also support Treasuries. UK yields are 7bp to 10bp lower on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s curves steeper by about 1.5bp; following the UK inflation data, swaps-implied chance of a BOE rate hike in June ebbed to less than 20%, compared with about 50% at one point last week

Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year new issue at 1pm New York time. WI 20-year yield near 5.17% is ~29bp cheaper than last month’s auction; a $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening is ahead Thursday.  IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings. Twelve borrowers raised almost $15 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying, on average, 4.8bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.9 times covered

Economic data slate empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr (9:15am), and minutes of FOMC’s April 28-29 meeting are slated for 2pm release

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.2%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.64%
• VIX little changed at 18.03
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1204.72
• euro -0.1% at $1.1591
• WTI crude -1.5% at $102.59/barrel

Top overnight news

• The Trump administration is planning to tell NATO allies this week that it will shrink the pool of military capabilities that the U.S. would have available ‌to assist the alliance's European nations in a major crisis, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG
• Two giant Chinese tankers laden with around 4 million barrels of oil exited the strait on Wednesday, the latest signal that Iran is willing to ease its blockade for countries it considers friendly. Iran had announced last week, while Trump was in Beijing for a summit, that it had reached an agreement to ease rules for Chinese ships. RTRS
• India is preparing to send vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to load energy cargoes from Middle East suppliers, the first time since the Iran conflict began. BBG
• Xi Jinping called for “a comprehensive ceasefire” in the Middle East as he opened talks with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. BBG
• US President Trump signed a fintech Executive Order to protect the US financial system from illicit activity, while it was reported that the White House plans to release an Executive Order on cybersecurity and AI safety as soon as this week, which seeks early government access to advanced models.
• Indonesia’s central bank snapped a long-running pause as it delivered its first rate hike in over two years to guard against inflation and steady the rupiah. Bank Indonesia on Wednesday raised its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, coming off the sidelines after holding steady since it eased policy settings in September last year. The move surprised markets. WSJ
• British inflation cooled by more than expected in April but the slowdown did little to mask ‌a tough outlook for households, with global costs from the Iran war set to hit them harder later this year. Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.8%, down from March's annual inflation rate of 3.3%, official data showed, helped by smaller increases in household energy and other regulated utility bills than in April 2025, and by measures to lower energy bills introduced by finance minister Rachel Reeves. RTRS
• The EU finalized the text of its long-delayed US trade deal after months of negotiations, clearing a major hurdle to ratifying the pact before President Donald Trump’s threatened deadline to impose higher tariffs. The EU agreed to scrap tariffs on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% cap on EU export levies. BBG
• Japan’s 20-year bond auction drew strong demand, helping calm a recent selloff in longer-dated JGBs. PM Sanae Takaichi said an extra budget would avoid large bond sales. BBG
• China banned Nvidia’s US export-friendly RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip last Friday. FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined following the weak handover from the US, with sentiment dampened amid headwinds from a higher yield environment and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. ASX 200 retreated with the declines led by underperformance in the mining and materials sectors, while a lack of data and firmer yields contributed to the uninspired mood. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 60,000 level with notable pressure in machine tool and electrical equipment manufacturers, while recent comments from Japan's Finance Minister, and current FX levels were seen to stoke intervention risks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment amid bond and inflation woes, with the declines in Hong Kong led by mining, solar and property stocks, while there was a lack of surprises from the PBoC announcement to maintain the benchmark Loan Prime Rates for the 12th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi met Russian President Putin in Beijing and said that relations have reached their current level due to deepened political mutual trust and strategic cooperation, while Putin said ties between Russia and China support broader international stability. Furthermore, China and Russia plan to deepen continuous strategic coordination, and Putin invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to travel to Russia next year, while Xi told Putin that the world faces the risk of regressing into a “law of the jungle.”
• Japanese PM Takaichi said she is not currently at a stage where she can comment on the possible size of the extra budget. She further said that plans to protect people’s lives and businesses while curbing issuance of deficit-financing bonds as much as possible.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) were initially incrementally lower, but now display a more positive picture. On the trade front, the EU finalised the text of its US trade deal, in which the bloc would remove levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports. Next steps are for the Parliament and EU countries to vote to ratify the text. The AEX (+0.4%) hovers around the U/C mark, with chip majors ASML (+3.2%) and BESI (+2.3%) supporting the index, while the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) sees little support following the cooler-than-expected UK inflation print. European sectors trade mixed. Basic Resources tops the sector pile as it manages to claw back some of Tuesday’s losses. Energy and Technology round out the top three sectors. To the downside, Media, Retail and Food, Beverages & Tobacco underperforms. UK supermarkets (Tesco -1.6%, Sainsburys -1.4%) have came under pressure after reports by the FT stated that the UK Treasury is pushing large supermarkets to introduce voluntary price caps on key groceries in return for lifting some regulations.

Top European News

• UK Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 1.3%).
• UK Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 3.3%, Low. 2.8%, High. 3.4%); Services 3.2% (prev. 4.5%). ONS: "There was a notable fall in annual inflation led by lower electricity and gas prices. This was due to the government’s energy bill support package reducing variable and fixed tariffs, along with lower global wholesale energy prices before the conflict in the Middle East, which fed through to the reduction in the Ofgem cap."
• UK Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%).
• UK Core Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 3.1%, Low. 2.5%, High. 3.2%).

FX

• USD continues driving higher amid the continued unconstructive oil/yield environment with oil either side of USD 110/bbl and yields still elevated, albeit lower on the day. US/Iran news overnight was light, and nothing pertinent this morning, but the running commentary remains hostile. The Buck will remain attentive to Gulf developments, alongside expected hawkish FOMC minutes this evening, and NVIDIA earnings after the US close. DXY +0.1%, is now above all significant DMAs, with the 50DMA closest at 99.00.
• JPY remains rangebound amid the threat of intervention, with Yen fundamentals still bearish (Supplementary Budget/Energy). Demand at the overnight JGB auction was weak and saw some pressure in JGBs but no real follow-through to the FX space. USD/JPY is unchanged and testing 159.00 to the downside at the time of writing.
• GBP is a little weaker after soft April inflation data trimmed bets on BoE hikes. GBP/USD moved lower by c. 15pips post-data, now above pre-release levels as it attempts to regain a 1.34 handle. EUR/GBP moved higher by 10pips post-data, a move which swiftly pared amid resistance at 0.8670 and recent energy-related moves. (See 08:40 BST headline for more). EUR is also a touch weaker and seemingly moving lower in tandem with USD strength. EUR/USD -0.1%, the pair delved as low as 1.1583 before attempting to return back to a 1.16 handle, where it has traded throughout the week so far.

Central Banks

• Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and interest rate cuts may only happen after inflation is controlled, while he also commented that current policy is appropriate and it is healthy for markets to consider an extended hold or hikes. Paulson stated the US labour market is stable and consumption is slowing, but is resilient, and a rate hike may be considered if growth moves above potential or other inflation risks emerge. Furthermore, he reiterated that he did not see a need to change language at the last policy meeting, as well as noted that risks are 'super-elevated' right now to both inflation and the outlook.
• ECB's Wunsch said the bond selloff is not impacting the ECB's thinking of Iran and that the ECB will need to react at some point.
• JPMorgan expects the BoE to hike 25bps in July (prev. forecast of hike in June).

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are firmer this morning, attempting to rebound from recent losses as energy prices pull back this morning. UK benchmarks outperform thanks to a cooler-than-expected regional inflation report, which has reduced the chance of a hike in June.
• USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks and trades towards the upper end of a 108-19+ to 108-30+ range. Focus remains on the geopolitical environment, with a recent WSJ report suggesting that Iran's position in talks with the US to end the war hasn't changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal. Earlier today, the IRGC provided some punchy rhetoric after it stated that the war would extend “beyond the region” if Iran is attacked again. Ultimately, an environment which keeps energy-related inflation woes at the front of minds, allowing yields to remain at elevated levels. On that front, the US10yr is just off recent highs, residing at 4.65%; the US-30yr (5.17%) remains towards peaks, after it surged to levels not seen since 2007, in the prior session. Ahead, FOMC Minutes and a 20yr auction.
• Bunds are firmer by around 10 ticks, and hold within a 123.86 to 124.22 range. Earlier, German PPI M/M printed a touch above the expected (1.2% vs exp. 1%); the statistics office notes that it “is primarily due to higher prices for intermediate goods”, particularly in precious metals prices. The report also highlighted the continued surge in energy prices. There was little move in German paper following this report. On the central banking front, ECB’s Wunsch said that the bond sell-off is not impacting the ECB’s thinking of Iran, adding that the Bank will need to act at some point. Elsewhere, French President Macron nominated Emmanuel Moulin to head the Bank of France. He said at the Senate today that the ECB must be ready to act to combat inflation, and stressed the importance of an independent central bank. He now appears at the National Assembly, where the outcome of the votes for his nomination will be announced this afternoon.
• Gilts outperform vs peers, and are currently higher by around 45 ticks; UK paper holds at the upper end of an 86.07 to 86.54 range. From a yield perspective, unsurprisingly the UK curve is bull steepening; the 10yr is now eyeing the 5% mark to the downside, but will likely need some positive geopolitical updates for a decisive breach below the key level. Price action today follows a cooler than expected inflation report, where headline CPI slowed to 2.8% in April, from 3.3% in March and below consensus of 3.0%. This report spurred a dovish repricing at the BoE, with markets now assigning an 8% chance of a hike in June (vs 35% pre-release); July now 50% (vs 84% pre-release).
• Germany sells EUR 3.845 vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.5x (prev. 1.24x), average yield 3.16% (prev. 2.92%), retention 23.1% (prev. 23.66%).
• Japan sells JPY 525.8bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 4.01x (prev. 4.82), average yield 3.711% (prev. 3.327%).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent July futures have been edging lower throughout the European morning thus far, with newsflow relatively mixed. Out of Iran, one official noted that the region is open to negotiations whilst an IRGC member stated that the war will extend beyond the region, if Iran is hit again. Most recently, Saudi press citing a diplomatic source suggested that Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks.
• Nonetheless, crude futures remain heavy, with WTI in a USD 102.50-104.45/bbl range while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 109.52-111.49/bbl range at the time of writing, with some weakness seen in the European morning despite a lack of clear catalysts, although the moves did follow comments from the Iranian Deputy to the President. Dutch TTF is flat in choppy trade above the EUR 51.50/MWh mark.
• Spot gold is choppy and resides in a relatively narrow USD 4,453-4,508/oz at the time of writing, vs yesterday’s USD 4,464-4,589.58/oz parameter, with the yellow metal subdued by the firmer dollar. Spot silver, conversely, rebounds following yesterday’s 5% losses.
• Base metals are mixed with newsflow on the quieter side this morning as markets await further US-Iran updates, with its implications watched from inflationary/growth standpoints. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,357.00-13,506.00/t range at the time of writing.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.1mln (exp. -3.4mln), Distillates -1.0mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -5.8mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
• Russia's Kremlin said there is an agreement with China regarding something important on energy. Russia's Kremlin spokesperson Peskov later said the details on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline still needs to be agreed.
• UK Treasury said Chancellor Reeves is expected to introduce broad reforms that would allow Parliament to authorise critical energy infrastructure projects.

Trade/Tariffs

• The EU has finalised the text of its US trade deal, as the bloc races to meet US President Trump's July 4th deadline. The deal would see the EU remove levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports. EU's von der Leyen later said she welcomes agreement reached by the European Parliament and Council on reducing tariffs for US industrial exports to the EU, while she calls on the co-legislators to move swiftly and finalise the process on this.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic has reportedly been in contact with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer.
• China's MOFCOM confirmed China will purchase 200 Boeing (BA) jets and said the US is expected to provide engines and parts support for the China Boeing deal. MOFCOM announced a resumption of poultry imports from certain US states and said China reinstated qualified US beef exporter registrations, while it stated the US and China are seeking to extend the Kuala Lumpur trade agreement.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
• US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
• Iran's IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
• Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran's powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
• Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
• Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
• "On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
• Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.

Ukraine

• EU governments are discussing whether former ECB President Draghi or former German Chancellor Merkel could represent the bloc in potential negotiations with Russian President Putin, according to FT.
• Russian strike killed two in Ukraine's Dnipro and Ukraine reports multiple regional drone attacks, while Russia claims interception of 273 Ukrainian drones, according to AFP.
• Ukraine's military confirms it struck a Russian oil refinery in the region of Nizhny Novgorod.

Other

• Some Trump advisers reportedly left the US-China summit thinking that a Chinese move on Taiwan was growing more likely, Axios reported. The piece suggested that Taipei is not in panic, at least on the surface
• US President Trump said Cuba is a failed nation that needs help from the US, while he believes a diplomatic deal can be made, according to Semafor.
• US indictment of former Cuban president Raúl Castro is expected to be announced today, according to two federal sources familiar with the investigation cited by NBC News.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States May 15 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.7%
• 9:15 am: United States Fed’s Barr Speaks on Consumer Financial Health
• 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we await earnings from Nvidia, the largest company in the world, tonight, the global bond selloff showed no sign of easing yesterday, with yields at multi-year highs around the world. Long-end Japanese yields are rallying notably this morning though after a firm 20yr auction at historically high yields. Nevertheless front end yields everywhere have climbed over the last 24 hours. There hasn't been a single catalyst, but with Brent crude holding above $110/bbl and the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, investors moved to price a growing probability of imminent rate hikes. Indeed, the chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026 moved up to 81%, despite the easing bias in their last statement. And significantly, President Trump seemed open to Kevin Warsh proceeding how he wanted to, telling the Washington Examiner that “I’m going to let him do what he wants to do”.

If you're looking for positives it seems there are three oil tankers currently navigating the Strait this morning, two Chinese and one South Korean. Assuming they get through this would mark one of the busiest days since the closure. So one to watch.

Back to bonds and this upward pressure on yields was clear around the world yesterday, but it was US Treasury yields that saw the biggest jump, with new records across the curve. Most significantly, the 30yr yield (+5.8bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.18%, whilst the 30yr real yield (+4.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 2.86%. For shorter maturities, the records weren’t quite so big, but the 10yr yield (+7.9bps) still rose to 4.67%, the highest since January 2025. And with investors bringing forward their rate hike expectations, the 2yr yield (+7.4bps) also hit its highest since February 2025, at 4.12%. The worrying thing would be that with this base in yields formed, where would yields go if strikes resumed on Iran? It's not inconceivable that we'd return to the bond fears seen on April 9th 2025 a week or so after Liberation Day. That ultimately created the conditions for the US to pull back from the maxamalist tariff regime but the session that morning in Asia was pretty fraught.

The latest rise in nominal and real yields kept up the downward pressure on equities as well. In fact, the S&P 500 (-0.67%) fell for a 3rd consecutive session, which is the first time that’s happened since late-March, right before the index staged one of its fastest rebounds ever. Tech stocks led the declines, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.33%) dragging the index lower. But it wasn’t just the megacaps, as the hawkish repricing also meant the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.01%) had a decent pullback with cyclical stocks seeing a broad underperformance.

Interestingly, yesterday’s rates move came despite pretty stable oil prices, which is noteworthy given how tight the correlation has been between Treasury yields and oil since the Iran conflict began. By the close, Brent crude (-0.73%) was down to $111.28/bbl, though that decline had come after Trump’s comments on Monday evening, with oil prices then creeping higher for most of yesterday’s session. Still, the stabilisation meant inflation expectations actually fell in many countries, and the rates repricing was driven by higher real rates instead. In particular, the 1yr US inflation swap (-1.9bps) fell to 3.37%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-2.3bps) fell to 3.84%. The drift lower in Europe came even as natural gas prices recorded an eighth consecutive increase, with TTF gas rising +3.12% to EUR 51.82/MWh, its highest since early April.

In terms of the latest in the Middle East, Trump reiterated his recent threats yesterday, saying that “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit”. In terms of how long he’d wait, he then said “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.” So the prospect of an escalation was still being floated. The mood also wasn’t helped by a Wall Street Journal report that mediators saw little progress in the US-Iran talks. By contrast, Vice President Vance suggested that talks had “made a lot of progress” though he also said “we're locked and loaded” to restart a military campaign against Iran if a deal did not materialise.

In the meantime, there was also a Bloomberg report that NATO was discussing the possibility of a deployment to help ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That came from a senior NATO official, who said it was being considered if the Strait isn’t reopened by early July. The article said the proposal had support from several NATO members, but not unanimous support.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning with the KOSPI (-1.98%) the biggest underperformer after Samsung reversed its initial gains, declining by over -4% following the company's announcement that negotiations with the union have collapsed due to unresolved differences on several outstanding issues, leading to the decision to initiate a strike. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.67%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.36%) are also trading sharply lower with the Hang Seng (-0.55%), the CSI (-0.28%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.66%) out-performing. S&P 500 (-0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.13%) futures are more stable but European stock futures are down nearly three quarters of a percent.

30yr JGBs have rallied around 10bps this morning after a decent 20yr auction but yields out to 10 years are slightly higher. UST yields are around a basis point lower out to 10yrs this morning.

In monetary policy action, the PBOC left benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 12th straight month as authorities balanced the need to support weak domestic demand against rising inflation risks linked to higher global energy prices. The central bank kept one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, in line with market expectations.

In Europe, bond yields also moved up to new highs yesterday. Indeed, the 10yr German yield (+4.4bps) hit to a post-2011 high of 3.19%, and the 30yr German yield (+2.8bps) also hit a post-2011 high of 3.70%. That came as investors dialled up the prospect of an ECB rate hike at the next meeting in June, with the probability up to 89% by the close. Bundesbank President Nagel also pointed in that direction, saying that “This energy supply shock is more persistent, so we are moving away from our baseline scenario”, and that the ECB may “have to do something”. But unlike the US, European equities still managed to post a modest gain, with the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) up for a second day running.

Here in the UK, gilts saw a relative outperformance after a dovish set of labour market data. Notably, the number of payrolled employees was down -100k in April (vs -10k expected), and the unemployment rate for the three months to March rose to 5.0% (vs. 4.9% expected). So that weakness meant investors dialled back the chance of rapid rate hikes from the Bank of England. Indeed, the probability of a hike by the June meeting fell to just 22%, the lowest it’s been in two months. And in turn, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, with the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) seeing a smaller increase to 5.13%.

Over in Canada, the latest CPI print also came in on the dovish side, which led investors to dial back the chance of an imminent rate hike. That showed headline CPI only rising to +2.8% in April (vs. +3.1% expected). Moreover, both of the core measures followed by the Bank of Canada actually fell, with median core down to +2.1% (vs. +2.3% expected), and trim core down to +2.0% (vs. +2.2% expected). So the probability of a rate hike by July fell to just 24%, and in turn that put downward pressure on Canada’s front-end yields. For instance, the 2yr yield (-2.1bps) fell to 3.03%, despite the global moves elsewhere.

On the data front, US pending home sales accelerated to +3.3% yoy in April (vs. +2.1% expected), their strongest annual pace since November 2024. Elsewhere, Eurozone trade data showed the block’s trade surplus falling to 9-month low in March amid higher oil prices and a rising deficit with China. Our European policy analysts discussed the EU push to increase trade defenses against China in a note yesterday (see here).

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. Meanwhile, data releases include the UK CPI print for April just after we go to press. Then from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s April meeting, and also hear from the Fed’s Barr and the ECB’s Sleijpen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 07:51

Massie Out: Gallrein Wins Kentucky Republican Primary

Update (2000ET):  In one of the most expensive primaries on record (with more than $32 million spent on political ads, according to the firm AdImpact), Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has won the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District over Rep. Thomas Massie, NBC News projects, notching another win for President Trump in his push to eliminate political rivals and roadblocks within his own party.

With 58% of the vote counted, Gallrein had about 54% to Massie’s 46%, DDHQ reported. 

Gallrein, 68, is a relative newcomer to politics. He ran a low-key campaign by refusing to debate Massie and generally avoiding the press. His chief selling points were his military service, his endorsement by Trump and his promise to be a reliable vote for the president’s policies.

Massie’s defeat follows other losses this month by Republican state lawmakers in Indiana who had resisted a Trump-backed congressional redistricting push. Five challengers endorsed by Trump defeated sitting state senators in their primaries.

Elsewhere: 

• Georgia: Early counts show Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (Trump-endorsed) and businessman Rick Jackson neck-and-neck in the GOP gubernatorial primary (likely runoff). On the Democratic side, Keisha Lance Bottoms leads strongly. In the GOP Senate primary to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff, Rep. Mike Collins appears to be in the driver’s seat.
• Alabama, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho: Mostly early returns or no major surprises yet. Expect incumbents or clear frontrunners (e.g., Tommy Tuberville in AL Gov, Christine Drazan in OR GOP Gov) to advance. Pennsylvania’s congressional primaries and other down-ballot races are developing but less nationally explosive so far.

So far tonight has demonstrated continued Trump influence in GOP primaries, particularly the high-stakes ousting of Massie after years of friction over spending, foreign policy, and party loyalty. The safely Republican nature of KY-04 means Gallrein is now heavily favored for November.

*  *  *

Today, voters in Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Idaho head to the polls for several primary elections that will affect key gubernatorial, House, Senate, and statewide contests ahead of the November midterms. 

The Epoch Times' Jackson Richman gives us the lay of the land (emphasis, charts, clips and any snark - ours...); 

Kentucky

There are a few competitive races in the Bluegrass State.

The most closely watched race is in the state’s Fourth Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) faces retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. President Donald Trump endorsed Gallrein after criticizing Massie over several votes he took in Congress. Trump has had success backing primary challengers and knocking off incumbents in several primary elections, including in Indiana and Louisiana.

The district includes the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati, part of northern Kentucky, and the outskirts of Louisville, consisting of coal towns and rural villages in the Appalachian foothills.

It has become the most expensive House primary in history.

Thomas Massie:

"Just in case I lose, they gave me the number to call to concede but the area code is Tel Aviv.” 😂 pic.twitter.com/5vmfh7ww0M

— GenXGirl (@GenXGirl1994) May 19, 2026

Federal Election Commission data, which include campaign ad spending and other costs, show that candidate campaigns and political parties have spent an estimated $35 million on the race, according to Quiver Quantitative. And according to AdImpact, more than $25 million has been spent on digital, radio, and television ads.

Massie’s campaign has spent $5.8 million, while Gallrein’s has dished out $2.6 million - and yet...

//--> //--> Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

In terms of outside spending, independent political groups have spent more than $10.1 million supporting Massie.

Massie’s campaign has said it has mainly relied on grassroots fundraising. He has received support from the Kentucky First PAC, backed by Pennsylvania billionaire and major TikTok investor Jeff Yass, which contributed $1 million in support, and the Make Liberty Win PAC, which poured in $518,205.

Super PACs have favored Gallrein, contributing more than $16.4 million in his support.

The Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund poured in another $470,000 of spending against Massie over the weekend, according to Quiver Quantitative.

Given the district’s strong Republican lean, the GOP nominee is expected to be favored in the general election.

Meanwhile, the race to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is on as Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and nine other candidates run in the GOP primary. Trump has endorsed Barr.

Former state Rep. Charles Booker and Amy McGrath, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2020, as well as five other candidates are running in the Democratic primary.

Polls project a Barr-Booker matchup.

Georgia

Georgia voters will cast ballots in high-profile primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and several statewide offices.

The race to replace term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, has drawn crowded fields in both parties.

On the Republican side, candidates include Attorney General Chris Carr, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, health care executive Rick Jackson, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Jones has secured an endorsement from Trump.

//--> //--> Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
Yes 60% · No 41%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Democrats competing for the nomination include former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, former state Sen. Jason Esteves, and former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond. Bottoms has received backing from former President Joe Biden.

Polls show Bottoms and Jackson leading their respective races.

Another closely watched contest is the Republican Senate primary to challenge incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in November. The field includes Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, along with former football coach Derek Dooley. Although Trump has stayed neutral in the race, Kemp has endorsed Dooley. Polls show Collins in the lead.

Alabama

Alabama voters will decide key primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, and Congress.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) faces insurance agent Ken McFeeters and event center operations manager Will Santivasci. Trump has endorsed Tuberville. The Democrats running are former Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.); former Greenville, Illinois, City Councilor Will Boyd; former state Rep. Nathan Mathis; and three other candidates.

The Republican Senate primary features Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, and four other candidates. Trump has endorsed Moore. The most recent polls show Moore leading. Democrats competing for the nomination include business owner Kyle Sweetser, pet care entrepreneur Dakarai Larriett, chemist Mark Wheeler II, and attorney Everett Wess.

Alabama’s redistricting process following a Supreme Court decision has also created an open race in the heavily Republican First Congressional District. Republican candidates include former Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.), state Rep. Rhett Marques, and several other contenders. Clyde Jones is expected to secure the Democratic nomination.

Oregon

Oregon’s primary ballot includes races for governor, U.S. Senate, and Congress.

Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat, is seeking reelection as multiple challengers attempt to unseat her. Republicans vying for the nomination include Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell, state Rep. Ed Diehl, state Sen. Christine Drazan, and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley.

//--> //--> Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Yes 87% · No 13%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

In the Senate race, incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) faces a Democratic primary challenge from retired electrical engineer Paul Wells. On the Republican side, candidates include former Senate nominee Jo Rae Perkins and state Sen. David Brock Smith.

Most of Oregon’s congressional races are expected to favor incumbents, but the Fifth Congressional District could emerge as a competitive general election battleground after Democrats reclaimed the seat in 2024. Republican candidates in the district include Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair and political communications consultant Jonathan Lockwood.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s marquee races include contests for governor and several competitive House districts.

The gubernatorial race is all but set with incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, facing Pennsylvania State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in November. There are no opponents to those candidates.

However, several congressional districts feature contested Democratic primaries.

In the state’s First Congressional District, the Democratic primary to take on incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) includes Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie and mathematician Lucia Simonelli.

Pennsylvania’s Third Congressional District, in Philadelphia, features a Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Dwight Evans. The candidates include state Rep. Chris Rabb and state Sen. Sharif Street. Rabb has earned endorsements from progressive figures including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), while Street has the support of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

//--> //--> Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
Yes 65% · No 36%
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The Democratic primary in the Seventh Congressional District includes Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association President Bob Brooks, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, and Carol Obando-Derstine, a former member of the Pennsylvania Advisory Commission on Latino Affairs. Brooks has been endorsed by Shapiro and members of Congress such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) flipped the district from Democratic to Republican in 2024.

In the Eighth Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan is expected to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in a competitive general election matchup.

The Democratic primary in the 10th Congressional District pits Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas against former news anchor Janelle Stelson for the opportunity to challenge Republican Rep. Scott Perry. Stelson barely lost the 2024 race to Perry.

Idaho

Idaho voters will weigh in on Senate and gubernatorial primaries.

Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) faces three Republican challengers: data engineer Joe Evans, entrepreneur Denny LaVé, and engineer Josh Roy. Trump has endorsed Risch. The Democratic primary includes estate executive Nickolas Bonds, lifelong Democrat Brad Moore, and realtor David Roth, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2022.

In the race for governor, incumbent Brad Little, a Republican, faces a primary challenge from seven candidates, while the Democratic primary includes small-business owner Jill Kirkham, former Twin Falls Director of Transportation Maxine Durand, attorney Terri Pickens, and Chanelle Torrez.

Jeff Louderback contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 07:11

A "Rubbish, Knee-Jerk Reaction": UK Treasury Pushes Food Price Caps As Inflation Re-Accelerates

UK supermarkets are being urged by the government to limit food prices in return for easing regulations.

As first reported by The Financial Times, the price caps are 'voluntary' and would apply to key groceries – such as eggs, bread, and milk - according to retail industry sources with knowledge of the plans.

In return, the government has said it would offer “incentives” to the supermarkets, which the people said could include easing packaging policies and potentially delaying costly changes to rules around healthy food.

As one may well expect, supermarkets are understood to be strongly opposed to the plans.

The Treasury has declined to comment.

The proposals come as Sir Keir Starmer’s government is battling to address public concern over the cost of living.

Scottish retailers recently condemned a similar policy by the Scottish National Party as a “1970s-style” gimmick.

One person close to a supermarket said the Treasury’s initiative was “a rubbish, knee-jerk reaction to the SNP”.

UK food inflation rose to 3.7 per cent in April, and the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has warned the world is “sleepwalking into a global food crisis”, with the Middle East war throttling supply chains.

And in line with the magical thinking, the Treasury has also told supermarkets that it would like guarantees that British farmers would not lose income from shop price caps.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost weighed in on social media platform X, calling the proposal "remarkable (and remarkably bad) if true.

"There are certainly plenty of people in this govt whose understanding of economics is so poor that they might consider it a good idea."

SNP leader John Swinney has defended his party's approach, arguing he faces a "public health responsibility" to ensure affordable nutrition for people "struggling to afford a very basic shop."

“It is a completely ill-thought-out, last-minute idea . . . The idea that the government can set price better than the market is for the birds,” one person familiar with the discussions told the FT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:55

UK COVID Inquiry's Endorsement Of Censorship Sets Chilling Precedent

Authored by Molly Kingsley via DailySceptic.org,

According to the UK’s Covid Inquiry, whose fourth report was published in April, there was “in principle, nothing unlawful or inappropriate in the government monitoring publicly available social media to identify potential trends in disinformation or misinformation” during the pandemic period.

The same report, in declining to criticise the censorious activities of the UK Government during the pandemic, noted that the UK government’s Counter Disinformation Unit was required to ensure that its actions were “lawful, necessary and proportionate”.

On a careful reading of this language, the inquiry stops (just) short of expressly endorsing the full scope and extent of the government’s censorship operation.  However, the relevant sections of the inquiry’s report create the distinct, and we can assume deliberate, impression that the CDU’s censorship operation was conducted in accordance with constitutional and democratic principles, and was not only justified but was necessary and proportionate. 

As someone who was on the receiving end of that censorship operation, with the receipts to evidence the very broad scope of commentary that was judged by the CDU to be wrongful or dangerous, this came as a serious disappointment, albeit not a great surprise.

Some would argue that in a national emergency scenario, some degree of information monitoring and intervention might be justified.

The trouble with that argument is that one very quickly then has to grapple with the fact that – as we saw during the pandemic period – it’s precisely in moments of national crisis – moments where critical decisions must be made in complex situations – that contrasting views are most valuable and essential.

As Jay Bhattacharya, Acting Director of the US Centres for Disease Control, has put it: “Dissent is the very essence of science.”

In my own case, the offending posts and articles caught by the CDU were typically either opinion pieces or comments quoted in mainstream news articles. They included such outlandish and outrageous statements as, “It would be unforgivable to close schools”, “Let children use playgrounds” and “It is indefensible that children’s lives are still not back to normal when the rest of society is”. Clearly, many would now agree with these viewpoints. However, even if some, or indeed many might not have agreed with those points of view at the time, the fact that they were valid, lawfully-expressed opinions cannot be disputed.

Perhaps the CDU’s hypersensitivity would not have mattered so much if, as according to the Covid Inquiry’s account, all that was happening during that period was “monitoring” of public sentiment by the government. The inquiry’s report notes that the CDU had ‘trusted flagger’ status with all of the major social media platforms, the effect of which was that CDU flags received special attention; but the same report is at pains to record that decisions about removing or suppressing content “remained exclusively a decision for each social media platform”.

Yet a subsequent investigation by the Telegraph revealed that 90% of the posts referred to social media companies by the CDU were taken down. Indeed, evidence given to the inquiry by the former head of the CDU confirmed that when information was flagged by the CDU it “immediately goes to the top of the pile. Whoever it is in whatever company then acts on it. It is the same system they have across government for things like terrorist content.”

What makes this even worse is that the remit of the CDU went beyond anything that could reasonably be termed mis- or disinformation. In particular, we know in relation to Covid vaccine-related commentary – because a CDU official told a Parliamentary Select Committee in December 2020 – that each of the following categories of content was considered for flagging and removal as ‘anti-vaccine misinformation’:

• commentary about the speed of the development of the Covid vaccines: “It is not safe, those kinds of narratives”;

• commentary about side-effects from the Covid vaccines; and

• commentary about “monetary and big business and links to pharma”, which seems to indicate that criticism of the pharma industry and its financial influence were off limits.

All of this is in sharp contrast to events on the other side of the pond. In May 2024, a US Congressional report observed in the context of its examination of the Biden administration’s pandemic censorship operations:

“By suppressing free speech and intentionally distorting public debate in the modern town square, ideas and policies were no longer fairly tested and debated on their merits. Instead, policymakers implemented a series of public health measures that proved to be disastrous for the country.”

Free debate is one of the key measures of the health of a democracy. Without it, we lose the ability to challenge and to stress test ideas. As we saw during the pandemic, it is often when speech is most controversial that the need to hear it is greatest.

In contrast with the US where a degree of candid investigation of core pandemic failings, especially concerning the suppression of speech and social media censorship, is now taking place, our own Covid Inquiry has completely side-stepped its duty to properly interrogate serious infringements of cornerstone rights and principles of public discourse. Given the investigations going on in the US and the fact that key reports have been public for close to two years, not only is this approach wilfully blind but it is an affront to the liberal democratic ideal of free speech. It sets an appalling precedent, whereby in future public health crisis (or potentially any crisis) we can now expect broad-in-scope monitoring and narrative control of lawful, and indeed essential, contrasting views to be the norm. And, it is disingenuous. At the same time that the inquiry has defended the patent overreach of the government’s censorship operation, it has completely ignored the flagrant, extensive and devastating mis- and disinformation propagated during that same period by pharmaceutical companies, government ministers and senior public health officials who were permitted and encouraged to make statements which were manifestly inflated, exaggerated, coercive or untrue.

Official statements overstating the safety and efficacy of the Covid vaccine programme, particularly when combined with coercive policies affecting children, are blatant examples of dangerous misinformation.

Each of the major vaccine manufacturers has now been found guilty by the UK regulator, many on repeated occasions, for the persistent overstating of benefit and understating of harm in relation to their Covid vaccine products. And yet the inquiry’s report is completely silent on this topic.

Unfortunately the end result, as predicted by many Daily Sceptic readers, is a shameful whitewash that will only further corrode trust in public health.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:30

Korean Bubble Mania: Retail Investors Max Out On Margin Debt, Choose To "Risk Complete Collapse" Than Miss Stock Rally

For many years, Koreans were bitcoin's best friend.

After bitcoin emerged about a decade ago as the asset class with the most pronounced momentum - both to the upside and the downside - Korea's daytrading army, famous for being totally unable to do any fundamental valuation analysis but legendary for its wilnningness to piggyback on any momentum with suicidal leverage, became enamored with bitcoin and the result were face-ripping meltups and heartstopping crashes, a daily breathless rollercoaster where 10% moves in hours if not minutes had become the norm. 

But then, last September something snapped. After bitcoin had tracked Korea's Kospi index closely for years, the two series - formerly joined at the hips for years - diverged and went their separate ways, the Kospi soaring to never before seen levels, while bitcoin stagnated, shrinking ever lower as its former momentum-addicted traders abandoned it for something shinier, and with much more momentum: memory stocks.

As shown in the chart below, the Kospi-Bitcoin divergence started right around the time last September when memory stocks like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix began what would be an absolutely historic meltup for the ages (if not so much for bitcoin). 

And while we had previously showed our readers a behind the scenes peeks into Korea's crypto trading culture, nothing prepared us for what is taking place right now... because what is taking place is nothing short of absolute batshit insanity.

Consider this: a single post uploaded May 8 by a Korean civil servant on Blind, the anonymous workplace community app, quickly set off a frenzy online. The post included a screenshot of his brokerage account showing he had poured a staggering 2.3 billion won ($1.7 million) into shares of semiconductor giant SK Hynix, one of the key driving forces behind Korea’s roaring stock market.

But even more striking is that the 1.7 billion won of that investment was financed through margin loans borrowed from his brokerage!

“I believe the semiconductor market will continue its upward climb through 2028, but I’m taking a more aggressive approach to grow my assets faster,” he wrote. Four days later, on May 12, he returned with an update claiming he had already locked in 267 million won in profits.

That same day, another Blind post surfaced - this time from a Seoul Metro employee in her 20s, who wrote that rather than missing out on the rally, she would “risk complete collapse,” adding that she had used 150 percent margin financing to fully leverage into stocks.

As Korea’s bull market barrels ahead, the Korea Times writes that more momentum-addicted retail investors are turning to borrowed money to magnify returns, despite huge risks of losing more than 100% of one's capital. As of Friday, outstanding margin loans used for stock purchases had ballooned to a record 36.47 trillion won, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.

While retail investors end up with all the risk, for Korea’s securities firms, the recent retail mania and associated borrowing boom has become a lucrative windfall.

According to recent industry data, the nation’s 10 largest brokerages - Korea Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset, Samsung, Kiwoom, NH, KB, Shinhan, Hana, Meritz and Daishin - generated a combined 600 billion won in interest income from margin lending in the first quarter of this year, up 55.9% from a year earlier.

Margin loans allow investors to borrow money from brokerages to buy stocks by pledging existing assets as collateral. While this can amplify gains, it also comes with annual interest rates ranging from 7 to 9%, and if share prices fall too sharply, brokerages force-sell holdings to recover their loans.

For now, bullish sentiment shows few signs of cooling: with the benchmark KOSPI climbing from the 4,000 range late last year to surpass the historic 8,000 mark in less than half a year, many retail investors appear willing to embrace higher-risk strategies in pursuit of faster gains, similar to what happened in China during the 2015 bubble when margin debt hit daily record highs. 

Up 75% this year, the quick ascent of South Korea’s Kospi Index has largely been driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which accounted for more than two-thirds of the advance. The surge reflects record profits at the chipmakers, and with valuations still below regional and global peers, some investors argue the rally lacks the excesses typical of past boom-and-bust cycles.

Wall Street, of course, is more than eager to encourage reckless risk taking: in a May 10 report, JP Morgan raised its base-case KOSPI target to 9,000, with a bull-case projection of 10,000, arguing that investors should “stay positioned for further upside and not preemptively anticipate a cycle-end.”

The investment bank pointed to a “higher for longer” memory chip upcycle, fueled in large part by sustained artificial intelligence-driven demand, while also identifying brokers, insurers, holding companies and dividend-heavy sectors as major beneficiaries of the country’s broader market transformation.

Not everyone agrees.

For one, signs of froth are literally everywhere one looks. Key market measures showing uneven earnings growth, rising volatility and record margin debt are beginning to give some investors pause. “This is a party you want to enjoy while staying near the exit,” said Mo Young, a portfolio manager at RootN Global Investors in Seoul. The problem with this is that everyone thinks they can sell before everyone else does. That "strategy" always ends in tears. 

Just like in the US, Korea's market breadth shows that the rally remains highly concentrated. Just 33% of benchmark stocks are now trading above their 50-day average, down from 70% three weeks ago. Meanwhile, 2% of members - mostly memory and chip stocks - are hitting new 52-week high despite the Kospi’s successive records, which underscores the narrowness of the gains.

“In other words, buying the index is not simply buying a diversified slice of Korea; it is increasingly a concentrated bet on memory semiconductors,” said Christian Heck, a New York-based portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management. 

“The index itself is no longer obviously cheap, and broad exposure requires underwriting a very large semiconductor-cycle bet,” he added. “Selectivity is essential.” 

Palvir Bahia, a fund manager at Polar Capital which manages $40.5 billion said his fund is "monitoring the rising margin debt closely as the market rally has led to an increase in margin debt which heightens market volatility, particularly on down days when retail investors are forced to sell in order to maintain account balances.” 

The risk of forced retail liquidations has dragged in the chief of the country's financial watchdog who expressed concerns that retail investors could suffer losses amid increased market volatility, according to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) on Tuesday.

During a meeting on consumer risk response a day earlier, FSS governor Lee Chan-jin said retail investors could increasingly pivot toward highly volatile, risky assets as the country is set to introduce single-stock leveraged, or inverse, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) next week.

And just in case record margin debt and historic call buying wasn't enough, the watchdog warned that the introduction of single-stock leveraged ETFs could further accelerate capital flights to high-risk financial products. Because that's just what Korea's stock bubble needs. 

A bubble which may burst any minute since cracks are starting to show in the index itself.

The Kospi dropped nearly 5% on Tuesday, the worst performer across Asia, as chip stocks tracked US peers lower amid rising bond yields. The index is now testing the ultra-steep trend line, with the 21-day moving average sitting just below current levels. As Market Ear notes, "these are short-term make-or-break levels for the AI melt-up."

 

As we have observed previously, the Kospi is basically two memory stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which is why the Kospi is basically the SOX on steroids.

With everyone ignoring stocks and plowing their margin debt right into calls for leverage upon leverage, the Kospi VIX is now a broken market. The spot-up, vol-up regime which signals a "melt-up" phase driven by FOMO and extreme positioning, has been unlike anything seen before, resulting in many investors dismissing buying protection due to stratospheric vols. First, the VIX soared as stocks surged (due to call buying); now vol stays high as the KOSPI sells off. Vols at these levels are pricing around 4.5% daily index moves going forward! That's not just extreme, that's batshit insane, and virtually guarantees that all levered investors will be wiped out unless they have tons of available cash balances to absorb margin calls, which they don't. 

With Samsung and SK Hynix posting record profits, signs of froth are also  emerging in smaller stocks where earnings growth is virtually non-existant. Non-tech firms have driven just 4% of the 12-month earnings gain since September, according to William Bratton, head of cash equities research for APAC at BNP Paribas.

Valuations are particularly stretched in materials sectors, which include electric-vehicle firms, trading at nearly 60 times forward earnings. Battery maker Posco Future M Co. stands out at over 300 times, despite carrying the highest number of sell ratings on the Kospi, Bloomberg data shows.

“If there is a meaningful slowdown of inflow from retail investors or systematic traders, or if hedge funds reduce their big positions that were most profitable, the market structure could become even more fragile,” Kim added.  

And it's about to get much more fragile: as Goldman notes, foreigners have net sold the Kospi for the 9th consecutive day (and have been aggressively selling for much of 2026) with today's latest selling focused in Tech (-$3.4bn). And while local institutions were net sellers for most part of the day, they closed as small net buyers with buying concentrated in Tech (+$168mn). Meanwhile, the willing target of everyone else's distribution, retail investors, have continued to be net buyers and absorbed all of the supply from foreigners... the same retail investors who are now levered to the gills and are out of funds, so they are buying with the bank's money. 

As we pointed out a week ago, hedging Korea, and partly the broader AI mania, via EWY looked interesting. The last major upside overshoot at the start of the Iran war, eventually mean-reverted all the way back toward the 50 day moving average. Having previously outlined the EWY put spread logic, with the unwind starting to accelerate again, it's time to start thinking about rolling strikes lower to keep max optionality.

KOSPI may be turning from the leader of the AI melt-up into the market’s most important stress signal, and when it blows, millions of levered retail investors will lose everything they own, and more thanks to the magic of leverage. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:15

Global Rush For "Non-Red" Suicide Drones Begins As Taiwan Sees Booming Orders

Four years of war in Ukraine have rewritten how warfare is fought, accelerating the urgent need for low-cost aerial unmanned systems and ground robots. It has also prompted Taiwan to emerge as a supplier of low-cost suicide drones.

Taiwan's national news agency, the Central News Agency, reported that a Taichung-based Taiwanese drone manufacturer is now focused on producing a domestically made variant of Iran's Shahed one-way attack drone.

CNA said Carbon-Based Technology's main exports are "triangular-wing drones with a control range of over 90 km, and catapult-launched small attack drones."

CNA noted that demand for these attack drones is soaring, with "plans to expand the factory three to five times." The company is facing "production capacity" constraints due to surging orders.

"The payload can be adjusted according to mission requirements, conforming to the current global military 'asymmetric warfare' trend," CNA stated, describing CBT's suicide drones.

CNA noted, "The Russia-Ukraine war sparked a global surge in demand for "non-red" (non-Chinese) drones. This, combined with Taiwan government support, brought rapid overseas interest and orders from countries including Japan, India, and Southeast Asia." 

The acceleration of suicide drone production also comes as the possibility of a Chinese invasion remains a very real threat, drawing heavily from lessons learned in Ukraine.

The broader takeaway is that Taiwan views drone manufacturing as both a national security capability and an industrial policy to supply Western militaries.

As we have outlined before, militaries around the world are entering a major procurement cycle to stockpile low-cost one-way attack drones, as lessons from Ukraine and the Gulf region rapidly reshape modern warfare.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 05:45

Starmer Hit With Legal Threat After Barring Conservative Speakers From Entering UK For National Rally

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been issued with a formal letter of claim after several foreign politicians, commentators, and activists were blocked from entering the United Kingdom ahead of a major rally in London last weekend.

The legal threat was announced over the weekend by Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek, who said she and others had instructed a lawyer to act on their behalf over potentially defamatory remarks made by the prime minister last week.

“Today, Dominik Tarczyński, Don Keith, Ada Lluch, Joey Mannarino, and I have formally instructed our lawyer, Francesco Gargallo di Castel Lentini, to issue a Letter of Claim to Keir Starmer,” Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X. The lawyer mentioned is Vlaardingerbroek’s Italian husband.

Enough is enough.

Today, @D_Tarczynski, @RealDonKeith, @AdaLluch, @JoeyMannarino and I have formally instructed our lawyer, @Fr_Gargallo, to issue a Letter of Claim to @Keir_Starmer. The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us… pic.twitter.com/myseUDpc8U

— Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) May 16, 2026

“The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us ‘far-right agitators’ who wish to incite violence.

“Should he fail to comply, we reserve all our legal rights to pursue further action against him.”

The dispute follows a speech delivered by Starmer last Monday in which he said his government had barred what he described as “far-right agitators” from entering Britain to attend the Unite the Kingdom march organized by Tommy Robinson.

The demonstration took place in London on Saturday. Ahead of the event, those named in the letter received notices from the Home Office informing them that their U.K. Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) had been cancelled. The message stated that their presence in Britain was not considered “conducive to the public good.”

Among those affected was Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, a conservative politician and outspoken opponent of mass migration.

“This is what communism looks like in the 21st Century. I have just been denied entry to the U.K. in order to speak at the largest patriotic event in Europe,” Tarczyński wrote on social media after being refused entry.

In total, 11 people were reportedly banned from entering the U.K. to attend the rally. They included American nationals, Don Keith and Joey Mannarino, and Spanish conservative influencer Ada Lluch.

Mannarino wrote in response, “None of us want to incite violence. None of us are agitators. We are simply people who want to see Europe remain Europe, the U.K. remain the U.K., America remain America, and so on.”

The letter of claim, dated May 13, was addressed to Starmer at 10 Downing Street and described the prime minister’s remarks as “potentially defamatory, untrue and denigratory.” It said the statements had been made against private citizens, parliamentarians, and lawyers, and demanded a formal retraction.

The row also comes amid broader warnings issued ahead of those attending the London protest. The Metropolitan Police cautioned that certain placards and chants could amount to hate crimes and lead to prosecution.

Those warnings followed new guidance from the Crown Prosecution Service on acts that may be treated as stirring up hatred.

Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Parkinson defended the guidance, saying, “This is not about restricting free speech. It is about preventing hate crime and protecting the public, particularly at a time of heightened tensions.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 05:00

South African Farming Crisis May Trigger Food Shortages Across The Continent

For decades South Africa has operated as the breadbasket for half of the African continent, and the vast majority of that food was grown by white farmers (Boers and Afrikaners).  In other words, the very survival of Africans has long been dependent on the hard labor of the white people they are taught to despise.

South Africa has around 142 race-based laws which largely discriminate against white citizens, especially when property, business and government office is involved.  The Expropriation Act of 2024 allows the socialist government to confiscate any land of their choosing to "redress past discriminatory laws or practices" (land owned by white citizens).  This is part of a project to "fulfill land reform goals" (transfer wealth and farming operations to black citizens). 

The problem is, when land is seized or forced into sale to black owners, farming production reportedly collapses.  That is to say, once the white farmers are gone, crop yields fail and the black owners often resell the land and leave.  In other cases, the new owners allow the land to languish, using the homes for living but never cultivating the surrounding property. 

Black South Africans own more farmland per capita than French, German and Spanish farmers combined, yet, starvation persists in the region.  Excuses as to why this is happening persist, but the fact remains that if Africa wants steady food production, they will have to rely on experienced white Afrikaners to make it happen because no one else is going to do it.

Furthermore, the government's failure to maintain basic infrastructure has forced local farmers to take on the costs in order to keep food production on track and the roads ready for freight.  

The pressure from government projects for "reparations" as well as the constant threat of violence from militant race communists targeting white farmers has made the job difficult.  Now, shortages of diesel and fertilizers caused by the Iran War are creating a perfect storm of circumstances which may cause a food crisis going into 2027.  If the shortages are not rectified, half of the African continent will be throttled by a lack domestic food supplies. 

The war is, apparently, the straw that's breaking the camel's back.  After years of the South African government sabotaging its most productive citizens and replacing them with less useful farmers, it was only a matter of time before a Black Swan event would lead to collapse.

Iran's refusal to allow safe passage of tankers from countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is, interestingly, hurting BRICS nations far more than it is hurting the US or the west.  Around 25% of South Africa's oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz.  South Africa also imports around 80% of its fertilizer supplies.

The US blockade is only targeted at ships coming from Iranian ports with Iranian oil.  All other ships are allowed to pass. 

For now, the region is relatively safe from food shortages due to an unusually solid harvest in 2025, but 2027 looms and predictions are up in the air as to what will happen.  Once a planting season has passed, there is no way to make up the loss.  Foreign imports of food would be the obvious solution, but it's a costly one.  Meaning, price inflation is likely for most of Africa in 2027 and government rationing is a possibility. 

The end result will undoubtedly be blamed on the closure of the Hormuz, but South Africa's progressive policies set the stage and created the house of cards that is Africa's food supply chain.  They are completely unprepared for any significant supply shocks, and the result could be disastrous.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 04:15

UK Schools Push Radical Race Doctrine On Kids, Claiming Black People 'Cannot Be Racist'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Schools in the north of England are teaching pupils that black people cannot be racist towards white people.

According to materials adopted by a group of Sheffield schools, led by Notre Dame High School, teenagers are explicitly told: “Black people can be racially prejudiced towards a white person which is wrong and totally unacceptable. However, this is not racism. Racism is racial prejudice plus power. In the UK, white people hold the cultural power.”

For children as young as 7, lessons focus on “empathy building” around “privilege,” asserting that white people are “likely to be privileged by the colour of their skin” and have a “responsibility” to reduce racism by monitoring their language, challenging friends, and reporting incidents.

Pupils told it's impossible for black people to be 'racist' to white peers https://t.co/hE74ZXEs2z

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) May 18, 2026

Handouts for older pupils push narratives on criminal justice, claiming black people are disproportionately targeted by police due to racism, with questions guiding students toward that conclusion.

The scheme aims to “interrupt systemic racism” and promote “strong social justice values,” according to its creators.

Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott slammed the materials, noting “It is deeply alarming that children as young as seven are being exposed to divisive identity politics in schools under the banner of ‘anti-racism education’… Labelling children by race and teaching them to focus on what divides them will only foster resentment and deepen division.”

Shadow minister Neil O’Brien called it “political indoctrination” and vowed to tackle such content.

These latest examples highlight a disturbing pattern in UK education: grooming children with critical race theory concepts, framing whiteness as inherently privileged and problematic, while shielding certain groups from accountability and cracking down on any dissent.

This comes as nurseries in Wales, funded by over £1.3 million in taxpayer money, have been urged to report “racist” incidents involving toddlers to police, turning playgrounds into surveillance hubs for the state’s anti-racism agenda.

Childcare workers are being trained to spot and log “racist incidents” by children barely out of nappies, with instructions to contact police via 999 or 101 if it could amount to a hate crime.

Funded by the Welsh Government and pushed by Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University, the program covers over 300 nurseries, playgroups, and childminders. It demands audits of resources for “diversity” and discussions of skin colour with toddlers to create “anti-racist” environments from the cradle.

Critics rightly point out that toddlers lack the cognitive ability to be racist, yet the state treats them as potential thought criminals.

UK schools have also pushed books telling children “there’s plenty of room” for small boat migrants, framing mass illegal immigration as something positive and inevitable.

The Green Party has also floated such extreme proposals for what to teach children, while the government urges schools to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian surveillance push.

Counter-terror police have warned teens that sharing “funny content” could be terrorism, and a taxpayer-funded video game literally flags kids questioning mass migration as potential extremists.

Parents of a child who questioned why he had to celebrate Ramadan in school when he is not a Muslim were sent a letter informing them of the ‘racist’ incident.

British children are being conditioned to view their own heritage and skin colour as sources of guilt, accept open borders and cultural replacement without question, and self-censor any pushback—or face reports, labels, and potential police involvement.

This is not education. It is state-sponsored division and thought control, bankrolled by taxpayers under a Labour government disconnected from reality.

Parents are waking up to the grooming, and the pushback is growing. Childhood must be reclaimed from ideologues before an entire generation is lost to this divisive nonsense. Freedom of thought and equal standards for all—not racial power games—should define British values.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 03:30

NATO Scrambles Jet, Shoots Down Ukrainian Drone Over Estonia, In War First

It's being widely reported as a major "first" of the war: a NATO fighter has jet shot down what is believed to have been a stray Ukrainian drone over a Baltic country.

The incident happened over southern Estonia on Tuesday, resulting in a regular NATO patrolling unit being forces to urgently scramble a pair of F-16 fighter jets in response. After the shoot-down, Ukraine owned up to it by issuing public apology.

via Associated Press, file image

Kiev called it an "unintended incident" - but then also suggested Russia caused it by diverting the drone's path through electronic warfare. 

"We apologize to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents," a Ukrainian government statement said. "We have been and remain in close cooperation through our specialized institutions to get to the heart of the matter in each case and seek ways to prevent them, including through the direct engagement of our expert groups."

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry then deflected, calling attention to Russian actions: "Moscow does this on purpose, together with intensified propaganda," it said.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur had earlier described that the drone's trajectory left the military with no choice: "we decided that we needed to take it down," he had earlier announced.

"Most probably, today we can say that it was a drone that was, let’s say, meant to hit Russian targets," he conceded, appearing to accept Ukraine's explanation. According to further details:

A Romanian F-16 Nato jet shot down a drone over Estonia on Tuesday in what appears to be the latest case of Russian electronic jamming diverting long-range Ukrainian drones into the alliance’s territory.

A local resident told the Estonian public broadcaster, ERR, that he had seen two fighter jets – part of a Nato force policing the skies over the Baltic states – flying in the area before a loud bang that brought the drone down. He said the drone had crashed about 30 metres from the nearest residential building.

Moscow, for its part, has been warning Baltic countries against allowing Ukraine to launch drones from their territories, or to allow their airspace to be used for such hostile attacks.

For example, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has freshly called out Latvia: "The primitive Russophobia of Latvia’s current rulers proved stronger than their capacity for critical thinking or their sense of self-preservation," it said in a Tuesday statement. 

However, Ukraine as well as Baltic officials have slammed the Kremlin statements as part of "yet another disinformation campaign."

The whole incident is unusual given that typically NATO jets scramble in response to Russian drones. But here we have an ally vs. ally drone shootdown, and happening in airspace which is deemed NATO's domain.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 02:45

Nearly Half Of French Voters May Support National Rally, And Immigration Is A Major Concern

Via Remix News,

Last Friday, an Ipsos poll conducted for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, Le Monde, and Cevipof indicated that 45 percent of French voters are now considering voting for the National Rally (RN) in the 2027 elections, meaning the anti-migration party’s candidate is favored to win the presidency.

According to Antoine Bristielle, director of the Foundation’s Opinion Observatory, the poll shows that RN “has managed to unite very different electorates around a common foundation, but that its cohesion remains fragile as soon as one moves away from this foundation.”

The Jean-Jaurès Foundation identifies four main profiles of RN voters, which can be grouped into two categories.

The “identity-based liberals” include older, politically engaged voters firmly rooted in the right, as well as the “forgotten France,” which represents “a working-class bloc, more economically vulnerable, marked by a strong sense of abandonment and combining demands for social protection with identity radicalism.”

However, the other two groups are more recent profiles, demonstrating the RN’s expansion to new voters.

The “shifting France,” representing those “less politically engaged and still uncertain,” and the “opportunistic radical right.”

This latter group of voters, seen as “more affluent, more educated, and highly politically engaged,” is, according to the report, “already largely aligned with the RN’s positions” but may have voted for other right-wing parties in the past.

Immigration, as expected, is a paramount topic for at least three of the four groups.

“There are too many immigrants in France” is confirmed by 97 percent of “forgotten France,” 99 percent of “identity-based liberals,” 43 percent of “shifting France,” and 96 percent of “opportunistic radical right.”

As to the statement, “Now, I no longer feel as at home as before,” the percentages of support were 96, 98, 72, and 94, respectively.

The full study is available here.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 02:00

House Lawmaker Introduces Legislation To Expose CCP Exploitation Of Sister City Agreements

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A House lawmaker has introduced legislation to prevent foreign adversaries, particularly the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), from exploiting sister city partnerships and jeopardizing U.S. national security.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) speaks during a campaign event with Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Jan. 14, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who serves on the House Judiciary Committee, introduced the Sister City Transparency Act (H.R.8833) on May 14. In a statement announcing the bill, Roy’s office said local governments across the United States maintain roughly 1,800 sister-city partnerships with foreign municipalities, including 157 with communities in China.

“America’s local communities should never be left vulnerable to foreign influence operations masquerading as cultural exchange,” Roy said in a statement on May 14.

“The Sister City Transparency Act brings much-needed oversight and accountability to these partnerships, helping ensure they serve the interests of the American people—not the strategic ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party or other foreign adversaries.”

Study on Sister City Partnerships

The legislation would direct the comptroller general—the head of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)—to conduct a study of sister-city partnerships with communities in countries deemed to have “significant public sector corruption,” including Russia and China, the lawmaker’s office explained. According to the language of the bill, the measure would specifically target countries that scored 45 or lower on Transparency International’s 2019 Corruption Perceptions Index.

China scored 41 in the 2019 index and 43 in the 2025 index.

The study would identify how foreign communities select U.S. communities for sister city partnerships, including whether certain economic activities or demographic factors influence those decisions; analyze the activities conducted in these partnerships and their economic and educational outcomes; review what types of information these partnerships make publicly available, including details related to contracts; and review how American communities “safeguard freedom of expression” and mitigate risks such as “foreign espionage and economic coercion” within these partnerships, according to the legislation.

Another part of the study would look into whether these partnerships involve economic arrangements that could make American communities “vulnerable to malign market practices” or educational arrangements that could “diminish the freedom of expression,” according to the legislation. Additionally, it would assess the extent of foreign access to local commercial, educational, and political institutions, and whether foreign actors could achieve “strategic objectives” contrary to U.S. economic or national security interests.

The legislation would also require a study of whether these partnerships are linked to broader foreign malign activities, such as “human rights abuses and academic and industrial espionage,” and how U.S. communities can prevent misuse of visa programs connected to them, according to the legislation.

The comptroller general would have six months to submit a report on its study to six congressional committees, including the armed services and foreign affairs committees in both chambers. The report would include findings, conclusions, recommendations, and, if necessary, a classified annex.

Concerns Over CCP Influence

“The CCP has demonstrated a pattern of exploiting international partnerships to expand influence, gather intelligence, and apply political pressure. Similar to concerns raised with Confucius Institutes, sister city relationships can create vulnerabilities for American communities, including exposure to foreign espionage, economic coercion, and ideological influence operations,” Roy’s office stated.

Similar legislation (S.1351) was introduced in the Senate in April 2025 by Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

“Communist China is exploiting sister city partnerships to achieve its own strategic objectives, and we need to make certain we are not enabling this activity in our own communities,” Blackburn said in a statement at the time. “This legislation would shine a bright light on these partnerships to keep our enemies from furthering their own dangerous agendas.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 23:25

Demographic Winter Pushes South Korea To Field War Robots As Troop Pool Shrinks

South Korea's population decline and shrinking pool of military-age men are forcing Seoul to rethink its military force structure, with officials now exploring robots and AI-powered drones to offset future manpower shortages.

South Korea's military is taking a direct page from Ukraine's battlefield playbook by preparing to procure low-cost unmanned aerial systems and robotics for future wars, primarily through a potential partnership with Hyundai Motor - for now.

"Potential deployments include Boston Dynamics' four-legged Spot, the four-wheeled MobED mobility droid, and wearable platforms like the X-ble Shoulder exoskeleton," Bloomberg reported.

South Korea's standing force has slumped 20% over the past six years to about 450,000 troops and is projected to fall to 350,000 by 2040. The demographic winter is already hitting national defense: the population of 20-year-old men has declined by 30% between 2019 and 2025, shrinking the enlistment pool.

Samsung Securities analyst Esther Yim wrote in a note that "robotics is a field without legacy constraints," adding that "these systems can leverage electrical and electronic technologies developed for autonomous vehicles, allowing for rapid proliferation."

For many months, we have outlined how modern warfare is being reshaped by Ukrainian innovation and, more recently, the U.S.-Iran conflict. Ukraine has served as an AI warfare laboratory, accelerating the rise of low-cost drones, ground robots, and, eventually, humanoid warbots.

What's clear: future wars of attrition will mostly be fought with intelligent machines, as manpower-constrained militaries substitute AI drones and ground bots for soldiers on the battlefield.

Beyond Ukraine and South Korea, many other countries are experiencing a demographic winter, characterized by ultra-low fertility, rapid aging, and current or projected population decline.

Here are those countries by region: 

East Asia and Southeast Asia

• South Korea

• Japan

• China

• Taiwan

• Singapore

• Thailand

Southern and Western Europe

• Italy

• Spain

• Greece

• Portugal

• Germany

• Austria

Central and Eastern Europe / Balkans

• Poland

• Hungary

• Romania

• Bulgaria

• Croatia

• Latvia

• Lithuania

• Moldova

• Albania

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Serbia

This suggests that militaries in the countries listed above will be some of the first to prioritize ground bots, drones, and other battlefield robotics as their pools of military-age men continue to shrink. The next weapons stockpiling cycle has already begun as the world fractures into a more volatile and increasingly dangerous environment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 23:00

"Digital Enslavement" Is A Subtle Weapon Of Social Subordination And Global Control

Authored by Peter Koenig via Global Research,

In a recent Buddhist retreat in Lima, Peru, about 200 participants were urged to abstain for the three-day retreat from our enslavement screens, “smart” phones, computers and television.

Difficult to say how many really followed the advice, but many did.

What was amazing is that during the first day, ignoring constant phone notifications was not easy for the many. But consciously resisting it made it easier. And the following days, we were hardly thinking of them anymore. The days were filled with meditation and different types of spiritual exercises… the digital age was peacefully removed into a corner.

Unfortunately, after the retreat, the hide-out corner became lively again and took up again most of our attention, in “angst” of what we may have missed during the highly divine retreat. Spirituality must have gradually evaporated again… and what we call “reality” kicked in.

Interestingly, what we call “reality” is a fake, indoctrinated reality. Over years we were told that technical advances, or as the World Economic Forum (WEF’s) Great Reset calls it, The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is a concept describing how emerging technologies are blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological worlds. It fundamentally alters how we live, work, and relate to one another.

Sending messages, videos, and silly jokes, rather than talking to each other, interchanging with physically presence. Along with this brainwashing propaganda, we were drugged with the belief that working from home is full of advantages. It is an outright lie.

These “work-from-home” benefits are geared to separate us from one another so that physical interaction is avoided, making us more manipulable, controllable and dispensable, capable of being replaced by robots, and eventually by Artificial Intelligence (AI).

And mind you, the 4IR was illegally approved by the United Nations (UN). There was a not-well-known Cooperation Agreement signed between the WEF and the UN in Geneva in June 2019 that established an unequivocal link between the UN (created by 51 nations (today 193 member nations) in October 1945 in San Francisco) and the world’s by far richest NGO, the WEF, established in Geneva Switzerland.

The UN was created to guarantee peace in the world, to make sure that no more wars, especially World Wars (WW), that would ravage planet earth. That principle is anchored in the UN Charter. The WEF is owned and run by BlackRock, the world’s largest financial asset manager, controlling together with Vanguard, an interchangeable partner, and StateStreet, a close associate, some 25 to 30 trillion US dollars equivalent in assets, controlling literally every sector of vital industries and services, like energy, food, transport, health but also of the world’s weapon industrial complex. It is a blatant contradiction to the UN Charter. The UN is controlled by financial behemoths, with powers way beyond BlackRock.

The 4IR is, therefore, not a human-friendly program. It is a global control mechanism, that could be right out of Orwell’s “1984” – but way more complex, dangerous and deadly.

Unlike previous revolutions, 4IR is not just about smart machines and systems; it is characterized by a lightning-fast convergence of diverse technologies. The WEF highlights several core pillars:

• Digital: Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, and blockchain.

• Physical: Autonomous vehicles, 3D printing (additive manufacturing), and advanced materials.

• Biological: Gene editing (CRISPR), synthetic biology, and neurotechnology.

CRISPR stands for “clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats.” It is a technology that research scientists use to selectively modify the DNA of living organisms including humans.

The WEF, an executing agency for the financial giants attempting to control the globe, and especially for those pulling the strings behind the WEF, are viewing these advancements as an unprecedented opportunity to address global challenges—such as fast-tracking the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – in fact the population reduction agenda – and improving sustainable energy management – the fake Global Climate Change Agenda (GCCA).

The GCCA can be made responsible for every calamity affecting the world, the human race, including any new diseases and plandemics that another key executing agency, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been put in charge of.

As this article may go to print, the 79th World Health Assembly (WHA) takes place in Geneva from 18 to 23 May 2026. One of its primary objectives is to make the Pandemic Treaty operational. For that, unanimous agreement is needed on the details of the Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing (PABS) System. This framework regulates how countries share virus samples and genetic data in exchange for guaranteed, equitable access to vaccines, diagnostics, and treatments.

PABS Agreement has not been reached during last year’s WHA. The PABS is unlikely to be approved this year either. The PABS would give WHO full control over every member country’s health system. National health sovereignty would be gone.

What is little known to most people, instead or in parallel with PABS debates, some 300 so-called “side events” are taking place in the WHA week. Topics range from Climate Change, Environment and One Health, to Global Public Health, to Health Systems and Universal Health Coverage, to Population and Care [Control]. See this for the full list.

Through its global Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (C4IR), the WEF brings together governments, businesses, and civil society to establish governance protocols. This ensures that these exponential technologies are harnessed responsibly for human control.

While the C4IR’s foundational headquarters and its first location was launched in San Francisco, USA in 2017, it has evolved into a highly decentralized global network. The network spans dozens of independent national and thematic centers across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas.

Digitization of humanity is thought-out to the last detail and the WHO is in-charge for much of these details. WHO has been created in April 1948, some three years after the UN and most of its sub-agencies. WHO is in charge of controlling health and death, a Rockefeller project; the Rockefeller clan being among the world’s prime eugenists.

Back to the Buddhist retreat: what people experienced by abstaining for three days from their electronic devices is rather phenomenal. Many said, they could imagine a life without these digital handcuffs. Indeed, it’s only a bit more than a generation that humanity has been gradually indoctrinated and subjugated to ever growing digitization, to its gradual use for everything.

We have literally developed a Stockholm syndrome – loving our hangman, our judge and prison ward. Sad but the majority of people today still have a hard time realizing it.

Imagine, only 30 years ago, the internet was hardly known to the public. The Network Infrastructure was developed by the US Department of Defense (DoD) (1969–1983), a Pentagon project, evolving into the modern internet on January 1, 1983.

The World Wide Web (1989) emerged from the CERN (Centre européen pour la recherche nucléaire, French acronym for European Center for Nuclear Research) in Switzerland. The Web is used to navigate the Internet.

What many say and feel is that, if EVERYONE would step back and return to the good old non-digital age, say 30 years back, it would be easy, because we would start afresh, and feel free again – in unison, having learned a lesson, never to forget.

That doesn’t mean we couldn’t use the societal useful electronic inventions for improving our lives – but never again fall for the targeted enslavement from full-control digitization – which is so far advanced that we are shortly before all electronic, digital money — to the point where you walk through a shopping mall’s cashier gate and pay by facial recognition which is linked to your all digital bank account. This exists already in large cities, like Moscow and other parts of the world.

Beware of misbehaving, or else your digital bank account is blocked.

Spiritual teachings and guidance may bond us together to form a strong body of think-alike humans called RESISTANCE.

And we shall overcome.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 22:35

D.C. Feds Launch "Summer Surge" To Crack Down On Youth Crime

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro and federal law enforcement officials held a press conference around midday Friday to announce a "Summer Surge" under the D.C. Safe and Beautiful Task Force ahead of America 250 events across the Capital Beltway.

The urgency reflects a decades-long, disturbing pattern of elevated summer violent crime by youths, worsened by failed progressive policies from left-wing officials in the D.C. area and extending into the Baltimore metro area, which have allowed juveniles to terrorize law-abiding citizens with limited consequences.

NBC Washington reporter Mark Segraves, who attended the press conference earlier, said that D.C. law enforcement will "prosecute parents of juveniles breaking curfew"...

DOJ announces “Summer Surge” in DC USAO announces they will now prosecute parents of juveniles breaking curfew. @nbcwashington pic.twitter.com/3MYw9U24w0

— Mark Segraves (@SegravesNBC4) May 15, 2026

Local outlet NBC Washington reports that the summer surge is coming "about two weeks after the D.C. Council chose not to vote on extending Mayor Muriel Bowser's emergency youth curfew zones over the summer."

President Trump issued an executive order in early 2025 that established the task force. He declared a violent crime emergency and temporarily federalized the Metropolitan Police Department by late summer 2025. 

DC-Baltimore metro area has a youth violent crime crisis: 

• D.C. Mayor Imposes Juvenile Curfew After Mobs Of Kids Wreak Halloween Night Havoc

• DC Enforces Youth Curfew "To Keep Young People Out Of Trouble"

• Citywide Youth Curfew Begins In Baltimore As Mayor Strives To Restore Law And Order

The broader read is that the Trump administration wants safe streets in the D.C. metro area ahead of America 250 events.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 22:10