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Deja Vu All Over Again: Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Optimism, Tech Rally

US equity futures are up big this morning and making fresh all time highs, led by tech companies, while oil prices and bond yields fell sharply on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal. As of 8:00am Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.7% while those for the S&P 500 gained 1%, with both gauges set to build on record highs. Iran is evaluating a new proposal from the US to end their near 10-week war, according to an Axios report. If Tehran accepts the terms, it will lead to a gradual reopening of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports. Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel. That comes as US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped eight basis points to 4.35%. In the UK, the rate on two-year UK gilts tumbled 17 basis points. The dollar hit the lowest level since February, while gold topped $4,700 an ounce. Bitcoin rose for a seventh straight day. US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

In premarket, most Mag 7 names are higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) climbs 1.6% after the Information reported that AI startup Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years (Amazon +1%, Apple -0.5%, Nvidia +2.5%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.1, Tesla +0.6%)

• Miners, cruise operators and airline companies gain, while energy and fertilizer stocks fall, after a report on the US and Iran nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
• Semiconductor, power equipment and data center stocks rally after solid results from Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro — in a sign of robust end-to-end artificial intelligence-related demand.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallies 19% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is stronger than expected, a sign of robust AI-related demand.
• Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) sinks 16% after the medical device company posted sales for the first quarter that disappointed Wall Street. TD Cowen calls the report a “tough start to 2026.”
• Apollo Global (APO) rises 3% after the alternative asset manager eclipsed $1 trillion of assets under management on record first-quarter inflows and reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
• Compass Inc. (COMP) gains 31% after the real estate brokerage platform reported first-quarter revenue that beat average analyst estimates. The firm’s second-quarter revenue forecast is ahead of consensus.
• CVS Health (CVS) rises 5% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit and comparable sales for the first quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
• Geo Group (GEO) gains 11% after the private correctional facilities company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, with the guidance beating the average analyst estimate.
• Klaviyo (KVYO) falls 18% after announcing Amanda Whalen will step down from her role as CFO. The application software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and the outlook was raised on key metrics.
• Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) rises 2% after reporting quarterly sales that beat Wall Street expectations, as higher prices and the company’s investments in its lagging brands helped boost North American sales.
• Primoris Services (PRIM) slumps 31% after the construction and engineering services company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) leaps 13% after the company reported improved margins and gave a profit forecast that suggested it’s controlling the costs of getting powerful AI servers into customers’ hands.
• TransMedics (TMDX) falls 21% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. It also reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year.
• Uber Technologies (UBER) gains 9% after providing a better-than-expected forecast for bookings, signaling that robust demand from US commuters and travelers will offset impact from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Veracyte (VCYT) rises 14% after the diagnostics firm reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average Wall Street analyst estimate.

In other corporate news, Novo Nordisk’s new Wegovy obesity pill fueled sales in the first quarter and the drugmaker said this year’s proft and sales declines won’t be as bad as previously expected. BMW expects profitability to remain broadly stable this year as the automaker offsets a downturn in China with robust sales in Europe. Samsung reached a $1 trillion market valuation after shares more than quadrupled over the past year on booming demand for AI chips. And the FT reported that China’s main chip-sector investment fund is in discussions to lead a fundraising round for DeepSeek at a valuation of about $45 billion. 

Risk assets soared and oil tumbled, as geopolitical and micro tailwinds fueled risk-on sentiment broadly across the market. On Geopolitics, Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel following an Axios report that US & Iran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for more nuclear talks (and said US expects Iranian responses on key points in the next 48 hours). Here are the details from the Axios report:

• A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
• US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
• MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
• If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
• Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
• Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
• Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.

Separately, last night Trump paused “Project Freedom” in the Strait citing “great progress” towards an agreement. 

“The market continues to price in de-escalation and an easing in supply constraints,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “The road ahead is bumpy, but the direction of travel seems clear.”

AI euphoria is also helping the rally. Alphabet is up in premarket trading after the Information reported Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. AMD was priced for perfection ahead of results, but managed to deliver, with shares soaring after the chipmaker gave robust predictions for longer-term growth. That’s adding to nerves about how Nvidia will retain its grip on the AI processor market in the face of intense competition.  

Meanwhile, looking under the hood, while both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s record highs, the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. This thin leadership is raising “yellow flags” for Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider, while Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau also noted earlier that stocks seem “increasingly disconnected from signals coming from the rates and oil markets.”

In politics, voters in Ohio handily backed Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid to be the Republican nominee for governor, while Democrat Sherrod Brown will get another shot at returning to the Senate after being defeated in 2024. Ken Griffin said he plans to make Citadel’s Miami tower even bigger after New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani name-checked the billionaire in his pledge to charge more taxes on second homes.

In private credit, Oaktree Capital cut the value of one of its funds by almost 4% as the firm marked down its software assets. A New Mountain Capital private credit fund that sold almost half-a-billion-dollars of assets at a discount earlier this year and used some of the cash to scoop up beaten-down loans says the strategy is already paying off.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to keep negotiating in pursuit of a lasting truce with the US, as he hosted Tehran’s top diplomat just days before Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing. The clash between Trump and Pope Leo XIV has flared up again, complicating a delicate diplomatic mission by Marco Rubio to the Vatican this week.

Looking at earnings, of the 375 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 84% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 11% have missed.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 2.3% with breadth strong. Mining and automobile shares are leading gains, while energy and utilities stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• The Stoxx 600 basic resources sector rallied as much as 4% as gold and copper edged higher after US President Donald Trump touted progress on a final agreement with Iran
• Novo Nordisk shares jump as much as 9.2%, the most since Dec. 23, after the Danish drugmaker raised its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit
• Demant surges as much as 17%, the most since October 2008, after the firm delivers sales ahead of consensus expectations in the first quarter
• Pandora shares rise as much as 11%, continuing a rally from March’s 3.5-year low, after the Danish jewelry maker’s first-quarter Ebit margins beat estimates, partly due to a change in the timing of certain costs
• Kongsberg shares rise as much as 11%, their steepest jump since February, after the Norwegian defense technology firm posted what Morgan Stanley called strong results across all metrics
• Diageo shares gain 6.6% after the British maker of Johnnie Walker and Guinness reported organic net sales for the third quarter that beat analyst estimates and maintained its full-year guidance
• Vestas shares rise as much as 2% as the Danish wind turbine maker reported 1Q Ebit before significant items that beat the average analyst estimate
• Equinor declined as much as 6.3%, its biggest drop since April 17 after the energy company reported total revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
• Wolters Kluwer falls as much as 14%, the most since 2003, after 1Q results that were broadly in line but did little to resolve the AI debate that has weighed heavily on the stock
• Orsted shares drop 4.4% after the Danish wind farm operator reported 1Q Ebitda that beat the average analyst estimate, while after-tax profit missed

Tech optimism saw the Kospi hit another record high in APAC trade as Samsung joined the $1 trillion valuation club.  Asian stocks jumped to a record, with technology shares leading gains after positive company forecasts reinforced confidence in continued growth tied to artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2.6% to a record high, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and MediaTek providing the biggest boosts. Equities in South Korea, Thailand and China led the advances, while Japan’s market was closed for a holiday. Chinese stocks posted gains after the market reopened after a five-day holiday, with tech shares leading the rally. The government estimated more than 1.5 billion passenger trips took place during the break, while box office grew to 758 million yuan ($111 million). Sentiment was also lifted by improvement in a private gauge of services activities in April. Investors will also keep their eyes on the expected summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump next week for potential signs of easing tensions.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.8% as expectations of a Fed hike by year-end have been fully unwound.  The yen surged after a 4th consecutive intervention by the BOJ/MOF but a large portion of the initial dip in USD/JPY has retraced.      

In rates, sovereign bonds are rallying around the world and treasuries hold a strong bid in early US session, with futures on session highs amid a slump in oil prices after Axios reported Washington and Tehran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for further nuclear talks, with nothing agreed upon yet. Subsequent reports indicated Iran is evaluating a new US proposal to end the war. US front-end and intermediate yields dropped at least 10bp, long-end yields about 7bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp-4bp; 10-year fell 9bp to 4.33%. Fed-dated OIS contracts flipped back to pricing in chance of a rate cut this year, with around 6bp of easing priced in for September, and trimmed pricing for a rate hike in 2027. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am, with consensus expectation for unchanged coupon auction sizes, however some banks anticipate new forward guidance, shortening the time frame for stability from “at least the next several quarters” IG dollar issuance slate includes three deals so far. Six names priced $5.25 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying less than 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 7.2 times covered — nearly double the year-to-date average. At least two borrowers elected against moving forward

Measures of US corporate-credit risk improved in the opening minutes of trading, with the gauge for high-grade notes at its tightest in over two months. The environment coming into the US session was already positive for debt capital markets, with investment-grade spreads matching their tightest level since Feb. 20 on Tuesday and leveraged-loan prices at their highest level since then. Though there have been 15 high-grade bond sales to start the week, just $13.6 billion has been raised

In commodities, crude prices are sliding with Brent down over 9% and just below the $100/bbl mark. Spot gold and silver post respective gains of 3.4% and 6.5%. Bitcoin is higher by 0.7%.

US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.9%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.2%,
• Russell 2000 mini +1.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +2.2%,
• DAX +2.4%,
• CAC 40 +2.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -7 basis points at 4.35%
• VIX -0.7 points at 16.72
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.7% at 1187.12,
• euro +0.7% at $1.1769
• WTI crude -6.6% at $95.52/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios
• Trump posts: If Iran agrees to deal, the blockade of the Hormuz Strait will be lifted. "If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. "
• Donald Trump earlier said he would pause US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz as he seeks an agreement with Iran, citing “great progress.” The blockade on Iranian ports remains. BBG
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met w/his Iranian counterpart on Wed and called for a swift reopening of Hormuz. BBG
• China Is Still Supplying Drone Factories in Iran, Russia Despite U.S. Sanctions. Obscure Chinese companies are openly shipping dual-use goods such as engines and batteries, defying American controls. WSJ
• The US will implement its 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU “relatively soon” if the bloc doesn’t swiftly ratify a long-delayed trade deal, the American ambassador to the bloc Andrew Puzder said. BBG
• China’s biggest state-backed semiconductor investment vehicle is in talks to lead the financing of DeepSeek’s first fundraising that could value the AI group at about $45bn. FT
• Novo shares jumped as its new Wegovy pill boosted sales, and the company guided to a smaller-than-expected revenue decline this year. The oral version had the best US launch of any GLP-1. BBG
• Alphabet outperformed its Magnificent Seven peers premarket after the Information reported that Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. BBG
• The yen hit a two-month high, spurring fresh intervention speculation. BBG
• While both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s records highs, the S&P500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. BBG

Axios report on MOU between the US and Iran

• A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
• US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
• MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
• If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
• Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
• Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
• Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.

Other Iran News

• US President Trump posted that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, blockade will remain in full effect.
• Journalist Mallick posted "...i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.". Full post:"As what I understand, while the ball largely lies in Iranian court when it comes to US - Iran negotiations, i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.".
• Iranian and Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministers held a phone call; stressed continuing diplomacy and prevent escalation of tensions.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said US demands from Iran are impossible and unattainable.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov, in which the US-Russia relationship, Russia-Ukraine war and Iran was discussed.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson denies the UAE's accusation that Iran fired missiles and drones at it, stating that Iran's defensive actions were exclusively directed at the US, according to a statement. UAE is cooperating with the US and Israel against Iran.
• Israeli Ambassador said relations with the UAE are growing.
• IRGC denies any involvement with the attacks on the UAE earlier in the week.
• Pakistan's PM thanks the US President for pausing Project Freedom, in response to a request from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, among others.
• "Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi held a telephone conversation with US Secretary of War Hegseth about bilateral relations in various fields", Tasnim reported.
• The two US commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had military security aboard, NBC reported citing sources.
• A French bulk carrier was hit by a cruise missile in the waters near the UAE, CBS reported citing officials.
• CMA CGM confirms a vessel was the target of an attack on Tuesday while it was crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, following on from the gains stateside and the positive update from President Trump, stating that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short time to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed. ASX 200 neared last week’s peak of 8787, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses. The bounce was supported by Financials and Industrials, while Energy lagged as oil prices fell. KOSPI surged at the open, breaking the 7000 handle, and even activated the buy-side sidecar within the first 5 minutes of trade. Tech giants helped the surge in the index, with Samsung Electronics (+15%) being the latest Co. to join the USD 1tln market cap group. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the positive risk-on tone as Shanghai returned from holidays. CK Hutchison gained after the Co. agreed to sell its 49% stake in VodafoneThree, while Wuliangye Yibin underperformed after a double downgrade at Goldman Sachs. On the data front, RatingDog services PMI beat estimates, which further supported the indices.

Top Asian News

• China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, Xinhua reported.
• BHP (BHP AT) CFO said new investors are buying into the Co. on copper exposure and AI demand.
• KOSPI sidecar activated after KOSPI 200 futures rise by 5%.

European bourses are stronger across the board, buoyed by optimism surrounding US-Iran peace. Opened higher as markets reacted to Trump’s decision to temporarily pause “Project Freedom”, and then took another leg higher to make fresh peaks on an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. European sectors are entirely in the green, except for Energy and Utilities; the latter, unsurprisingly, is hampered by losses in underlying oil prices. The top of the pile consists of Basic Resources (lifted by strength in metals prices), Autos and Consumer Products. The Autos sector has been driven higher by post-earning strength in BMW (+5%, beat exp. but faced fierce price competition in China) and Continental (+5.5%, Q1 results topped exp. and confirmed guidance). The Consumer Products sector has benefited from gains in jewellery-name Pandora (+9%) after Q1 revenue beat estimates, but did experience weakness across North America and Europe.

Top European News

• EU PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. -0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 3.7%).
• EU PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -3%, Low. -0.5%, High. 2.1%).
• EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.6 (Prev. 50.7).
• EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 47.6 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 50.2).
• UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 50.5).
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.3).

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are stronger against the USD this morning, to varying degrees. Antipodeans outperform, given the risk tone; JPY is also towards the top of the pile, following likely intervention overnight. SEK is a touch weaker vs EUR, after a cooler-than-expected inflation report, but is unlikely to shift the dial for the Riksbank on Thursday.
• DXY is weaker this morning, and currently trades at the lower end of a 97.79 to 98.34 range. Pressure facilitated by the risk-on mood, amidst optimism surrounding progress towards US-Iran peace. This stems from a post from the POTUS, who announced that the US would pause Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations to occur. The move lower was then exacerbated after an Axios report suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. In its current form, it would declare and end to the war with Iran. Potential JPY intervention also facilitating the pressure this morning
• Focus overnight was on USD/JPY, where an aggressive move lower took the pair to a 155.00 handle, before bouncing back towards 156.00. There is currently no confirmation that the move was intervention, but markets should begin to get some details on recent moves late in the Japanese session. Time will tell whether these attempts of intervention proves effective, given the volatile nature of the Middle Eastern conflict. A near-term resolution will help the USD/JPY trundle lower, a factor which Japanese Officials would probably require to achieve any lasting strength in the JPY.

Central Banks

• ECB's Cipollone said the EZ inflation trend is moving towards adverse.
• ECB Wage Tracker: 2026 annual 2.282% (prev. 2.270%). Q1 1.847% (prev. 1.887%). Q2 2.131% (prev. 2.10%). Q3 2.553% (prev. 2.521%). Q4 2.597% (prev. 2.574%).
• BoE Governor Bailey said we must be mindful of risks of private credit.
• NAB sees the RBA hiking in June to take the cash rate to 4.60%.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said banks are resilient under stress tests.
• RBNZ Financial Stability Report: New Zealand's financial system is resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if economic conditions soften. The global risk environment has worsened over the past six months, as conflict in the Middle East threatens world energy supply.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8562 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.8628).
• BoK official said inflation is seen higher in May and are closely monitoring inflation trend as uncertainty is high over the Middle East situation.

Fixed Income

• Unsurprisingly, a bullish start for fixed income as the marked energy retreat has allowed yields to ease. Pressure in energy facilitated by a) Trump pausing Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations, b) Axios report suggested US-Iran are close to an MoU. (See geopols section for details).
• USTs to a 110-28+ peak, with gains of 15 ticks and breaching Monday's WTD 110-26+ best. For the US, aside from geopols, we are attentive to ADP ahead of NFP on Friday; ADP is seen at 79k from 62k, vs a 73k (prev. 178k) consensus for Friday's Payrolls. Additionally, we get the full Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement after Monday's projections, before remarks from Fed's Musalem (2028) and Goolsbee (2027).
• Bunds post gains in excess of 80 ticks and currently hold just off a 125.88 peak. A high that printed in proximity to the above geopolitical updates this morning, and after a slew of Final PMIs, which were subject to modest revision. Of note for policymakers, the ECB's latest wage tracker showed upside across the year. Though, the ECB will at this stage likely welcome the relatively modest level of upside and particularly that the Q4-2026 figure remains shy of the 2.709% reported in February.
• Gilts gapped higher by 48 ticks before climbing another 30 ticks to an 87.32 peak, notching a new high for the week, but remain shy of last week's 87.03 closing price. Potentially capping a return to and test of that level is the ongoing scrutiny around PM Starmer, as UK press continues to brief that the challenge against Starmer is increasing, with the Welsh Labour leader seemingly primed to call for Starmer to step down on Friday and reports that the party is working to get Burnham back in the Commons.
• Germany sells EUR 2.662bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.50% 2032 Bund Auction: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.1x), avg. yield 2.8% (prev. 2.78%), retention 23.94%.

Commodities

• Energy on the backfoot after US President Trump paused Project Freedom to allow time for talks and potential progress with Iran. An update that weighed on crude overnight, sending WTI below USD 100/bbl and Brent beneath USD 108/bbl. Thereafter, the complex took another hit after an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict (see geopols section for details).
• As it stands WTI Jun’26 and Brent Jul’26 are holding towards session lows at USD 93.96/bbl and USD 101.46/bbl, respectively. Brent now eyes USD 100/bbl to the downside, and a further leg lower could see a retest of the low from 27th April 2026, at USD 99.58/bbl.
• Gold is benefiting from the energy and USD downside, XAU as high as USD 4,708/oz, matching its 21 DMA. Base metals are also firmer, cheering the general risk tone and welcoming the return of Mainland China. 3M LME Copper above USD 13.2k, with gains in excess of USD 150 as things stand.
• China has ordered its oil refineries that purchase crude from Tehran not to comply with or enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil, CNN reported.
• Australia's PM Albanese said that they are to lift minimum stockpiles of every type of fuel by around 10 days, the fuel reserve is to be around 1 billion litres and the package is to cost more than AUD 10bln.
• Weekly private inventory data (bbls): Crude -8.1mln (exp. -2.8), Gasoline -6.1mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillates -4.6mln (exp. -2mln), Cushing -1.1mln.

Trade/Tariffs

• Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin said China and the US are in communication on Trump's trip.
• US Ambassador Puzder wants the US-EU trade agreement to be agreed on before July, Bloomberg TV.
• US Envoy to India said Indian companies plan to invest over USD 20.5bln in the US tech, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.

US Event Calendar

 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:28

ADP Employment Report Signals Biggest Job Additions In 15 Months In April

With non-farm payrolls looming, we get another glimpse at the labor market today from the ADP Employment Report which shows the US economy added 109k jobs in April (a slight disappointment relative to +120k exp). That is the tenth straight month of job additions and strongest monthly addition since January 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Goods-producing jobs rose 15,000 while Service-providing jobs rose 94,000.

"Small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment."

Health care's continued strength, along with a rebound in trade, transportation, and utilities, fueled last month's acceleration in hiring. 

Pay growth for job-stayers slowed slightly to 4.4 percent, but for job-changers, year-over-year pay gains were steady at 6.6 percent.

Is the economy transforming from 'no hire, no fire' to 'higher hire, still no fire' gains (see JOLTS' record hiring).

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:23

New Disney CEO Delivers Earnings Beat As "Important Change" Underway

Disney reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by momentum across entertainment, sports, and experiences, while reaffirming its positive outlook for the year.

"At an important moment of change for Disney, we remain focused on executing our long-term growth strategy," Disney wrote at the beginning of the earnings release.

The entertainment company continued, "Our creative and operational momentum drove strong quarterly results, and we continue to expect growth to accelerate in the second half of the fiscal year."

"We are strengthening streaming through continued investment in the creative storytelling that defines us and in product and technology innovation, while advancing ESPN's direct-to-consumer future and delivering on our bold growth plans at Disney Experience," the introduction to the earnings release concluded.

Here's a snapshot of the second quarter, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Adjusted EPS $1.57, estimate $1.51 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Revenue $25.17 billion, +6.5% y/y, estimate $24.87 billion

• Entertainment revenue $11.72 billion, estimate $11.39 billion
• Sports revenue $4.61 billion, estimate $4.59 billion
• Experiences revenue $9.49 billion, estimate $9.4 billion *

Total segment operating income $4.60 billion, +3.8% y/y, estimate $4.38 billion

• Entertainment operating income $1.34 billion
• Sports operating income $652 million
• Experiences operating income $2.62 billion

 Disney expects 2026 adjusted EPS growth of around 12%, excluding the impact of a 53rd week, or about 16% including it. It also plans to repurchase at least $8 billion in shares this year and continues to expect double-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2027.

Disney shares jumped as much as 8% in premarket trading in New York. The stock remains roughly 50% below its 2021 peak and is still locked in a narrow 3.5-year trading range, oscillating between about $80 and $120.

Disney shares need a clean break over $120 to attract the momentum crowd. 

The earnings results come as the company's turnaround plan under new CEO Josh D' Amaro, who succeeded Bob Iger in March, gets underway.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 07:45

Taxpayers Foot Staggering £629 Million Bill For Foreign Nationals In UK Prisons

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

UK taxpayers are forking out £629 million a year to house 10,487 foreign national offenders in British prisons — a bill that could pay for 16,500 police officers or 15,000 NHS nurses.

While Labour claims it’s deporting record numbers, an ex-prison governor has torn into the “staggering” cost and the “incredibly slow process” that leaves dangerous foreign criminals draining public resources instead of being sent home. 

This is the direct result of years of open-borders policies that prioritise criminals’ “rights” over British safety.

'We've got to persuade countries to take these individuals back.'

Reform UK's Prisons Advisor Vanessa Frake reacts as GB News finds 10,487 foreign offenders in Britain are costing taxpayers £629 million a year. pic.twitter.com/VRyPpaOlXf

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 5, 2026

Reform UK’s Prisons Adviser and former prison governor Vanessa Frake laid it out clearly on GB News. “The cost to this country for foreign national prisoners is staggering,” she said. “It’s a very long, drawn-out process, which kind of goes from three main areas.”

Frake detailed the excuses that keep foreign offenders here: “The problem is a lack of identity documents for these people. Quite often they get rid of their passports, so the Home Office then has to write to the country that they originate from, and that process is very slow.”

“Sometimes the country refuses. And there are of course the ECHR claims. Those under Article 8, right to life, right to family for those who have family in this country and of course, there is administration errors as well,” Frake further explained.

She added that even recent deals fall short. “They’ve just done a deal with Albania to send 200 prisoners back, but that comes with certain conditions, like improving their prison service, giving them electric Volkswagens, etcetera.” 

Britain's 'staggering' cost of foreign nationals in UK prisons torn apart by ex-prison governorhttps://t.co/9k4F9JwdOT

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 5, 2026

Frake noted the daily cost disparity: “It costs something like £109 a day in this country to keep a foreign national in prison, and we’re going to give the Albanians £32 a day, so it’s still not quick.”

Albania tops the list of foreign national prisoners, followed by Ireland and Poland. Yet Frake’s blunt conclusion was that Britain can’t simply load them onto planes. “We’re not going to get away with it by just putting them on a plane, we’ve got to persuade these countries to take these individuals back.”

This isn’t an isolated failure. It’s the pattern. Britain has repeatedly let violent offenders and known extremists stay or walk free despite clear red flags.

Take the most recent case of a Somali terrorist in London who previously stabbed police officers, and was a known extremist.

Essa Suleiman, who arrived as a child and holds British citizenship, was convicted in 2008 for stabbing two officers and a police dog. Referred to Prevent in 2020 as an extremist, he was still free to attempt to murder two Jewish people in Golders Green last month. 

Leftists seem more concerned with how police roughly handled the terrorist, however.

In another case, Al-Qaeda-inspired plotter Shah Rahman, was convicted for planning to bomb the London Stock Exchange, but can’t be sent back to Bangladesh because an immigration judge ruled it would breach his Article 3 human rights against “torture or inhuman treatment.” 

He even married a woman banned from Britain for life over ISIS material. 

In Edinburgh a reported Somali migrant went on a knife rampage, smashing a shop and stabbing victims near a school. 

Council leader Cllr Jane Meagher responded by praising Edinburgh’s “diversity” as its “biggest strength” and calling for more “tolerance.” 

In another example, Zahid Iqbal, who plotted to bomb an Army base using an Al-Qaeda manual and a toy-car IED, was freed three years early despite warnings and prior recall for breaching conditions. 

How many more are there like this — released from prison or previously charged with serious crimes — now roaming around free?

The Ministry of Justice claims more than 8,700 foreign offenders have been removed since July 2024. Yet the prisons remain full of them, the costs keep climbing, and the public keeps paying the price for a system rigged against its own people.

This growing insecurity is now reflected in public sentiment. According to a major survey, four in five parents (80%) fear their daughters will grow up feeling unsafe in public in Britain, with 40% believing this will happen at an earlier age than it did for them. 

Most parents fear daughters will grow up unsafe in public

Read more 🔗 https://t.co/S6DhQspyoQ

— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 5, 2026

The solution offered?

In Dumfries, Scotland, schoolgirls were handed rape alarms after repeated reports of asylum seekers stalking and photographing them — the authorities’ answer to the problem instead of stopping the influx. 

This is what unchecked mass immigration and weak deportation rules deliver: British taxpayers funding foreign criminals while violent threats walk the streets. Real border control means ending the excuses, scrapping the ECHR vetoes, and putting British safety first — before the bill gets any bigger.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 07:20

Novo Nordisk Soars After New Obesity Pill Momentum Lifts Guidance

Novo Nordisk shares jumped as much as 9% in Copenhagen, suggesting the stock may finally be bottoming out after a vicious multi-year bear market. The move followed the Danish drugmaker's decision to raise its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit, citing solid momentum in Wegovy sales.

Novo now expects full-year sales and profit declines of around 12%, down from a previous forecast of around 13%. The upgraded outlook was "driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales," according to the company.

Here's a snapshot of the new full-year forecast, courtesy of Bloomberg:

• Sees adjusted change in sales at constant exchange rates -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -7.63% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted change in operating profit at constant FX -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -8.26%

The key bright spot was momentum in the Wegovy pill:

• Wegovy pill was launched in the US on 5 January 2026, and for the week ending 17 April, total weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000. Coupled with total prescriptions for Q1 2026 of around 1.3 million and now more than 2 million since launch, it marks the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the US. Q1 2026 sales for the Wegovy pill reached DKK 2,256 million, impacted by pre-launch pipeline fill with wholesalers and telehealth partners.

• Pending regulatory decisions, the first Wegovy pill launches outside the US are expected during the second half of 2026.

"We have seen more than 1 million people using the Wegovy pill," CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts on an earnings call earlier. He noted that patients are switching from competing products, with "limited cannibalization" of Novo's other drugs.

Still, Novo's overall business remains under pressure. First-quarter sales fell 10% to 70.1 billion Danish kroner, while adjusted operating profit dropped 15%. Diabetes drug sales fell 18%, with Ozempic hitting its lowest level in two years.

Novo is trying to regain momentum after losing market share to Eli Lilly's Zepbound injection.

Novo shares in Copenhagen jumped as much as 9%. Shares have been locked in a vicious, nearly two-year bear market, down 70% from their peak.

Analyst commentary, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Barclays (equal weight)

• Oral Wegovy was "off to a strong start," analyst James Gordon writes in a note.

• Sees questions on supply capacity when the pill launches in other countries, expected in 2H

• Sees FY consensus expectations being increased by low single- digits

BMO Capital Markets (market perform)

• The Wegovy pill "makes a splash" in its debut, analyst Evan Seigerman writes in a note.

• It's encouraging that roughly 15%-16% of pill patients are filling scripts for the highest dosages.

• This "could be a leading indicator for improved revenue going forward, given their higher price."

• Wegovy and Ozempic injectables also beat expectations, "showing more resilience in the face of competition within class"

Jefferies (hold)

• Although the 2026 guidance was nudged higher, it still leaves consensus expectations at the upper end of the range, analyst Michael Leuchten writes in a note.

• The change in guidance probably won't have a positive impact on consensus estimates.

• It could actually drag pretax profit and EPS expectations down a couple of percent.

Intron Health (sell)

• Sales beat expectations by 1%, driven by Wegovy pill stocking of ~$125m, analyst Naresh Chouhan writes in a note

• Meanwhile, gross margin was 30 bps worse than expected

Morgan Stanley (equal weight)

• 1Q sales were a "small" beat, driven by the Wegovy pill — helped by stocking — and international operations, analyst Thibault Boutherin writes in a note

• Lower operating costs helped the adjusted EBIT beat

• Still sees the bottom end of the guidance as "conservative" and expects the company to finish the year "in the upper half of the guidance."

Did Novo finally bottom?

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:55

There Needs To Be A Stronger European Element In NATO, Says Starmer

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on May 4 that there needs to be a stronger European element in NATO, as the United States reconsiders its relationship with the defense alliance and pivots toward other security priorities domestically and globally.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Jan 6, 2026. Ludovic Marin/AP

Starmer acknowledged during a panel discussion at the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia, that, in terms of defense and security, Europe has “got behind over many years, now.”

“We’re not where we need to be,” he said.

The British prime minister alluded to the impact of the Ukraine–Russia war and, more recently, the Iran conflict on global security and economic stability, saying that Europe, especially, had to come together around these issues.

“There needs to be a stronger European element in NATO. I have no doubt about that,” he said.

Starmer said that while there needed to be a stronger European element in defense and security, “we’ve been behind the curve for too long: over dependencies, over reliance, and assumptions about the world that we live in—they’ve gone.”

“We now need to lead out of this, and we need to do it at pace because these impacts are real,” Starmer said.

“The alliances that are under tension are real, and how we, as a group of leaders, respond now will likely define what goes on for many years—arguably for a generation.”

US Reorients Defense Priorities

U.S. President Donald Trump has long maintained that Europe should rely less on the United States for its security and that European NATO allies should increase their defense spending. This approach was formally accepted by NATO when, in June 2025, allies agreed to raise defense spending targets from 2 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent by 2035.

The United States has also reoriented its defense and security priorities.

The Pentagon on Jan. 23 released its National Defense Strategy, which outlines the U.S. plan to prioritize homeland defense, including by “defending America’s interests throughout the Western Hemisphere,” according to the document.

It also said the United States would encourage partners in other parts of the world, including Europe, to take primary responsibility for their own defense “with critical but limited support from U.S. forces.”

Tension Over Support in Iran Conflict

In recent weeks, Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of support from NATO allies during the Iran war, prompting him to consider pulling out of the alliance.

Trump told British newspaper The Telegraph in an interview published on April 1 that his request for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz was a test that allies did not pass.

The president’s remarks followed similar comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio said on March 30 that one of the benefits of U.S. membership in the alliance is that it gives Washington access to station troops, aircraft, and arms in other parts of the world—including much of Europe.

However, during Operation Epic Fury, “we have countries like Spain, a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it, denying us the use of our—of their bases,” Rubio said, adding that “there are other countries that have done that as well.”

Rubio said that while he supported NATO, his backing of the alliance was based on the assumption that there are reciprocal arrangements.

“But if NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” he said.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte delivers a speech at Aselsan Defence company as part of his official visit to Turkey, in Ankara on April 22, 2026. Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

This week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that NATO members had received Trump’s message about agreements allowing the United States to access European bases.

“Yes, ​there has been some disappointment from the U.S. side, but Europeans have listened,” Rutte told reporters at the same European Political Community summit in ​Armenia on May 4.

“They are now making sure that all the bilateral ​basing agreements are being implemented.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:30

Trump Pauses Project Freedom Amid "Great Progress" Towards 'Complete & Final' Agreement With Iran Summary

• Trump announce 'pause' to Project Freedom amid optimism of a "complete and final" deal with Iran; French ship confirmed hit in cruise missile attack, crew members injured

• Rubio declares 'offensive' actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.

• UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources - however which Iran denies doing - instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn't declared end of ceasefire.

• Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran's Monday operations were "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."

• Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.

• Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.

The odds of a peace deal being completed just jumped...

*  *  *

Trump Pauses Project Freedom

There is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.

Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz. 

Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):

Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally...

...the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran...

...we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. 

WTI crude futures are testing back below $100...

Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip...

Don't hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side.

Additionally late Tuesday, a French cargo ship was confirmed hit in a missile attack, injuring crew members:

A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship's Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News.

The hit on the CGM San Antonio — which is owned by a French firm — took place late Tuesday evening local time, the officials said. The ship was near Dubai as of midday on Tuesday, but it is not clear whether the vessel has moved since then, according to public ship tracking data.

Rubio Declares Conflict in New Stage

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced Tuesday afternoon that offensive stage of Iran war is 'over'. He further said that ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz are facing a humanitarian crisis and accused Iran of holding the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is denying that it attacked the United Arab Emirates, with the foreign ministry saying its 'defensive actions' were 'exclusively directed at the U.S.'

Operation Epic Fury is over, now Project Freedom.

The remarks were issued just as a new attack is unfolding on a foreign cargo ship in the strategic waterway:

UKMTO WARNING 055-26

Click here to read the full warning⤵️https://t.co/J5B2EilFQE#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/EGcKTpsHtN

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) May 5, 2026

Reaction in oil...

...as the goalposts keep shifting:

BREAKING: REPORTER: But 10 weeks in, are we any closer to get rid of Iran's nuclear materials?

RUBIO: They no longer have a conventional shield. They have no Navy left. They don't have an Air Force. That's a very substantial achievement. That was the purpose of this. pic.twitter.com/bD33XPARVH

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) May 5, 2026 Trump Asked Whether Ceasefire is Dead

A revealing exchange in the Oval Office strongly suggests that even amid a second Iranian attack wave on the UAE Tuesday, the White House is unwilling to say that the ceasefire has collapsed - also given there's yet been no direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces: 

President Trump, taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, would not specify what Iran would need to do to violate the cease-fire. Asked by a reporter what would constitute a violation, considering that the country has fired on U.S. ships several times, Trump said: “Well, you’ll find out, because I’ll let you know.”

He added that “they know what to do,” and “they know what not to do, more importantly.”

Earlier the Pentagon clearly indicated that the ceasefire is still active, from Washington's point of view. 

The Iranian government is meanwhile trying to bat down rumors of a division between the presidency and the IRGC/military apparatus.

Second UAE Attack Wave Active

The country's Ministry of Defense has just released official statement of inbound projectiles out of Iran:

• The UAE's air defenses are currently dealing with missile and drone attacks originating from Iran.
• The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE's air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
• UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV's

Air defense systems are currently responding to a missile threat. Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates. pic.twitter.com/1srVYlQgI0

— NCEMA UAE (@NCEMAUAE) May 5, 2026

There are meanwhile reports of explosions being heard on Iran's Qeshm Island, and questions raised about scenes like the following:

Fire at a commercial complex in Andisheh, #Iran, which is in Tehran Province. pic.twitter.com/JxSwgSoRng

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) May 5, 2026 Is Ceasefire Over? Pentagon Answers Definitively 

In the Tuesday morning Pentagon presser led by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine stated very clearly that the US views Monday's escalation (the attack on UAE and some vessels in the Strait of Hormuz) as actions which are "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."

The Trump administration has argued that it doesn't have to seek congressional approval to continue military operations beyond a 60-day limit because there is a ceasefire in effect. But the question raised Monday is: does the fresh Iranian cross-Gulf mark the end of ceasefire? Clearly the Pentagon and Trump administration are saying no. "No adversary should mistake our current restraint for a lack of resolve," Caine then emphasized.

The ceasefire with Iran is not over, according to U.S. Secretary of War Hegseth.

Project Freedom is "separate and distinct” from Operation Epic Fury, Hegseth added.

The Iranian fire is recent days was described as "harassing" and "below the threshold of restarting major combat…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) May 5, 2026

Below are some of the latest top developments from various MSM sources:

—Trump’s desire to end the Iran war is being put to the test after Tehran fired at American warships on Monday and violently disrupted a U.S. effort to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Trump wants to avoid a fresh bombing campaign, officials say, preferring a negotiated end to Tehran’s nuclear advancements and the weekslong war that has raised gas prices and hurt the global economy. (WSJ)

—U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year. The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran's nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran's remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium. (RTRS)

—Trump says war could stretch 3 more weeks, claims US 'already won.’ (ABC)

Below: Pentagon slide in Tuesday's briefing showing Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping: "Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships since the ceasefire was announced" (Gen. Caine).

And this puts things in perspective...

In a Pentagon briefing, top U.S. General
Dan Caine says Iranian attacks on shipping and U.S. vessels is currently below the threshold of restarting major combat operations. (This included 9 attacks on commercial vessels and 10 against U.S. forces) pic.twitter.com/CU0gQVSvzJ

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) May 5, 2026 Internal Iranian Schism Over Monday UAE Attacks(?)

There's a lot of chatter that Iran's civilian government and the IRGC are at direct odds over Monday's attack on UAE, which resulted in a large blaze at the Fujairah oil facility and the three injured Indian nationals. Al Jazeera for example observes:

By targeting the facility, Iran is sending a direct message to UAE saying: “We can target your most important economic points even if you think you can get around the Strait of Hormuz,” said Turak.

Iran’s government has not confirmed or denied responsibility for the attack. Turak noted there are "quite contradictory" statements coming out of Iran, however.

And Saudi-funded Iran International claims the following dramatic schism and internal rupture over the risky cross-Gulf operation, which could signal the end of the ceasefire (though curiously President Trump himself has not said it is broken):

Exclusive information obtained by Iran International points to a growing clash between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and its military leadership over Monday’s escalation in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the United Arab Emirates.

According to sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations, Pezeshkian has expressed strong anger at actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi, describing missile and drone strikes on the UAE as “completely irresponsible” and carried out without the government’s knowledge or coordination.

Pezeshkian is said to have described the IRGC’s approach to escalating tensions with regional countries as “madness,” warning of potentially irreversible consequences.

This certainly isn't the first time that Iran International, a London-based publication seen as also 'close' to Israeli intelligence, has alleged severe internal division in Iran's wartime decision-making, but the viewpoint is beginning to be echoed and reported on more broadly.

Two US Navy Destroyers Successfully Transit Strait

To review of Monday's major escalation, US Central Command said its forces had intercepted missiles targeting US Navy and commercial vessels, and also said American helicopters sank six small Iranian boats that officials said were targeting civilian vessels under American protection.

And also came a big milestone in terms of Washington aims to enforce Trump's newly announced Project Freedom plan to provide military escort for ships through Hormuz. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf on Monday and overnight after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials.

CBS reports, "The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage." The report underscores further that "Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck."

Apaches, Centcom handout 'No Military Solution'

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has issued an interesting statement decrying Trump's attempt at escalation in Hormuz, warning that there's no “military solution” to the crisis, while warning the US, UAE, and other regional countries against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.

"Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis," Araghchi wrote on X. "As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock," to top Iranian diplomat asserted.

Also of note is that Araghchi will travel to Beijing on Tuesday for discussions with his Chinese counterpart. "During the visit he will meet his Chinese counterpart [Wang Yi] to discuss bilateral ties and regional and international developments," Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Below: Graham says you either pay now or you pay later. “They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.”

Lindsey Graham says Americans deserve higher gas prices because many doubted Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon.

Graham says you either pay now or you pay later.

“They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.” https://t.co/1dDx1PVACv pic.twitter.com/Uma2pETYt7

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) May 5, 2026

Officially at least, Beijing has a policy of "noninterference" in other countries’ internal affairs, and has claimed to not be involved in the Iran conflict - while Washington has consistently accused China of providing intelligence to Tehran, and even possibly military hardware or weapons.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s presidential secretary Choi Soung-ah says "the safety of international maritime routes and freedom of navigation should be protected under international law" and that Seoul is "watching President Trump’s remark related to this," according Reuters. This after ann explosion and fire on a South Korean-operated ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which Trump blamed on an Iranian attack.

More Geopolitical Developments

via Newsquawk...

•  US President Trump said Iran war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.
• IRGC military source told Tasnim that the US shot two small boats carrying civilians instead of shooting IRGC speedboats.
• "Iranian Defense Council member Ali Akbar Ahmadian: Our security does not accept negotiations, and Washington obstructed global navigation and energy security", Al Jazeera reported.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian has requested an immediate and emergency meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei to ask him to stop IRGC attacks on Persian Gulf nations and prevent a recurrence, Iran International reported.
• Pezeshkian reportedly outlined that the IRGC attack on the UAE occurred without the knowledge of the government.
• US intelligence suggests strikes from the start of the war led to limited new damage to Iran's nuclear programme, Reuters sources say.
• US State Department official to Al Jazeera said the President is clear that direct communication between Israel and Lebanon is the best path toward peace; We are working to prepare the necessary conditions and political momentum to move forward with this
• Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials who spoke to CBS News; "Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them".
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said its subsidiary's US-flagged vehicle carrier, Alliance Fairfax, exited the Gulf via Strait of Hormuz on May 4th.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent had a "fierce row" with UK Chancellor Reeves last month over her outspoken criticism of the Iranian war, FT sources say.
• US CENTCOM posted "US warships and aircraft deployed to the Middle East are enforcing the naval blockade against Iran while executing Project Freedom to support the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.".
• US officials say military closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.
• US President Trump reiterates he feels Europe has been "very disappointing".
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.".
• Full post:"Events in Hormuz make clear that there's no military solution to a political crisis. As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.".
• Mehr News Agency said a fire broke out in two commercial ships and spread to two others in Dayyer port south of Iran; cause not clear.
• "Explosions were heard tonight in the port of Bandar Abbas (Iran) and on Qassem Island (Iran) in the Persian Gulf", N12 journalist reported citing sources in Iran.
• IRGC political deputy said traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will only be done with Iran's permission, ISNA reported; "Any kind of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, if it is from the enemy, will be met with a decisive and crushing response".
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being solidified.
• Actions of the US and allies have threatened the security of shipping and energy.
• UNSC resolution prepared by the US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait opens the door for potential enforcement measures, AsharqNews reported citing the resolution "to be distributed tomorrow".

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:00

Carbon Neutral, Speech Negative: Amsterdam Bans Ads Featuring Meat & Fossil Fuels

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I write about how censorship often becomes an insatiable appetite once countries go down the road of speech regulation. There is no better example than the Dutch and their recent ban on public ads for meat and fossil fuels. Activists have imposed similar limitations on advertising for products in the United States, from alcohol to tobacco. However, the Dutch law reflects how this tendency can metastasize into shielding citizens from unhealthy choices or influences.

It appears that Dutch painters such as Pieter Aertsen (with his work A Meat Stall with the Holy Family Giving Alms, above) were promoting harmful imagery in their work. As for Rembrandt’s “Slaughtered Ox,” the Dutch master is now little more than a climate change denier.

Starting on May 1, the ban on such images became part of Amsterdam’s push to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. While purportedly neutral on carbon, it is manifestly negative on free speech.

As with other anti-free speech measures in Europe, this push again came from the left. The GreenLeft Party’s Anneke Veenhoff explained “I mean, if you want to be leading in climate policies and you rent out your walls to exactly the opposite, then what are you doing?”

The answer is engaging in free speech.

This is, of course, commercial speech, which is often subject to a lower level of protection. However, this shows the danger of using the differential standard to target products or industries viewed as unhealthy or ill-advised for consumers.

In Amsterdam, the ban will cover industries such as airlines, including KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, one of the largest employers and revenue generators in the country.

Notably, activists compare this to cigarette advertising bans, confirming the very slippery slope danger that those companies raised when they were targeted.

Hannah Prins, a paralegal at Advocates for the Future, is quoted as saying, “I don’t think it’s normal to see murdered animals on billboards. So I think it’s very good that that’s going to change.”

Other Dutch cities are now following suit, including Haarlem, Utrecht, and Nijmegen.

Of course, prostitutes still advertise live in Amsterdam and marijuana is a major industry for tourists.

If you want drugs, there are ample choices.

However, if you want a steak, you will have to rely on word-of-mouth directions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 05:00

No Kings? In Europe, Monarchs Are Far More Popular Than Politicians

In Europe, monarchs are far more popular than the politicians who govern.

As Visual Capitalist details below, using data from Morning Consult, visualized by The European Correspondent, monarchs hold an approval advantage of nearly 30 points over national leaders. The gap appears in every country analyzed.

The pattern reveals a clear divide: leaders making policy decisions often face public backlash, while ceremonial figures largely avoid it.

Approval Ratings for Elected and Unelected Leaders

Below, we break down approval ratings across eight European countries.

From the UK to Luxembourg, monarchs outperform politicians across the board. Spain stands out with the largest gap, while even the narrowest differences still favor royalty.

Why Do Monarchs Poll Better?

One key explanation lies in the fundamentally different roles these figures play. Monarchs are typically nonpartisan, symbolic heads of state, largely removed from day-to-day political decision-making. This helps them avoid the scrutiny and backlash that elected leaders inevitably face.

By contrast, national leaders are directly responsible for policy decisions on issues like inflation, immigration, and public services. These decisions often divide public opinion, dragging down approval ratings.

Spain and the Netherlands: The Biggest Gaps

Spain has the widest popularity divide, with King Felipe VI outpacing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez by nearly 40 points. This reflects broader dissatisfaction with political leadership, alongside relatively stable support for the monarchy.

The Netherlands also shows a notable gap, with King Willem-Alexander maintaining a significant lead despite historically low approval ratings for the monarchy itself. This highlights how unpopular political leadership can become by comparison.

Even Lower-Rated Monarchs Still Lead

Even in countries where monarchs have more modest approval ratings, such as the UK, their standing still surpasses that of elected leaders. This underscores a broader trend: monarchy as an institution retains a degree of public goodwill that politicians struggle to match.

As this data shows, in modern Europe, it’s often the figureheads, not the decision-makers, who win the popularity contest.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 04:15

UK Faces Summer Flight Disruptions As Jet Fuel Risks Mount

Via City AM,

• Ministers are expected to warn Britons that flight cancellations could disrupt summer holiday plans.

• Allianz Trade research says the UK is especially exposed to jet fuel shortages because of import dependence.

• Airlines are weighing cancellations, surcharges, and ticket price adjustments as fuel supply risks rise.

Ministers are set to warn the British public that flight cancellations will hit summer holiday plans as new research suggested that the UK is more exposed to jet fuel shortages than other European countries. 

Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, is set to tell Brits that there could be flight cancellations this year as she will talk up staycations, according to The Times. 

Her warnings will follow a prompt by Sir Keir Starmer that people would have to consider changing “where they go on holiday”. 

Trade experts have warned that the supply of kerosene was set to be hit by disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz. 

Michael O’Leary, the boss of Ryanair, Europe’s biggest airline, said rivals were “desperately” searching for flights to cancel. 

Some airlines have reportedly said that the UK could escape some of the worst effects of jet fuel shortages due to obtaining supplies from other countries.  

UK is ‘particularly vulnerable’ to jet fuel shortages

But research by Allianz Trade found the UK had Europe’s “most structurally exposed markets to jet-fuel shortages”. 

It said its heavy reliance on imports, albeit from countries outside of the Middle East, would leave the UK “particularly vulnerable” to supply shocks. 

“The UK,  Germany, France, and Italy show the largest shortfalls, underscoring their reliance on external supply to meet aviation demand,” trade experts said. 

“European  aviation activity is indirectly exposed not only to global oil price dynamics but also to geopolitical and logistical risks along  key supply routes, reinforcing the region’s dependence on external refining hubs for a fuel that is essential to long-haul  connectivity.”

The worst effects of flight disruption could come in late June and July, near the peak of summer travel. 

Ministers may be looking to discourage Britons from taking long-haul flights in contingency plans being drawn up, according to reports. 

Lufthansa Group has announced it will cancel 20,000 flights over the next six months, while Virgin Atlantic added a fuel surcharge and British Airways has warned of “pricing adjustments” to tickets.

Airlines UK, the trade body, said: “UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 03:30

Moscow Targeted By Over 50 Drones, Country's 2nd Largest Refinery On Fire

We've been documenting that Ukraine has been demonstrating deeper targeting reach inside Russia, as several key oil sites have come under direct drone attack over several days and weeks, resulting in significant destruction.

Just in the last several days, Russian state media has recorded over 50 Ukrainian drone attacks targeting the country's capital of Moscow.

Moscow at night, via Medium

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin on Tuesday confirmed that since the start of this month, Ukrainian efforts to target the capital region have greatly increased. 

The distance of Moscow from the Ukrainian border is nearly 300 miles, but lately Ukraine has also demonstrated the ability of its long-range drones to target as far away as Perm and the Ural Mountains.

"The defense ministry’s air defense assets have downed yet another UAV. Emergency relief specialists are working at the scene, where the debris from the UAV landed," Mayor Sobyanin stated.

And he detailed, per TASS, that "from May 2 to 5, the capital was attacked by 51 drones. In the current 24-hour period, 19 UAVs have been shot down."

Also, one of Russia's largest refineries came under fresh attack on Tuesday, with Oil Price reviewing the following:

One of Russia's largest oil refineries, the 400,000 barrels-per-day Kirishi refinery southeast of St. Petersburg, was on fire early on Tuesday following drone attacks overnight, Bloomberg reports, citing satellite images from NASA.

According to satellite images taken on Tuesday by NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System, the Kirishi refinery owned by oil producer Surgutneftegas and nearby areas were detected to emit heating anomalies which signal fires.

Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region where the refinery is located, posted on Telegram early on Tuesday that the fire at the Kirishi industrial zone has been localized, while the Kirishi refinery was the main target of the drone attacks overnight. The post did not confirm a hit on the refinery, only stating that it was targeted.

Initial footage widely circulating of the overnight attack on Kirishi:

The VNIIR-Progress facility in Cheboksary, Russia, was reportedly hit. It produces secure Kometa navigation modules used in Russian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

The Kirishinefteorgsintez (KINEF) refinery in Kirishi, Russia’s Leningrad region, was also struck.… pic.twitter.com/6Jp31QQCWd

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2026

Currently, the globe's attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well. Earlier in the Ukraine war, these major refinery attacks would dominate world headlines, but at the moment they have remained in the background given the constant Iran-related news flow.

President Putin has lately communicated to Trump that he's open to a 'Victory Day' ceasefire, a proposal the Kremlin said Washington has backed. Ukraine is meanwhile offering its own ceasefire, but on a different set of days, and the warring sides haven't reached agreement.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 02:45

How German Media Became The PR Arm Of The Expanding State

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

How does economic growth emerge? Let us turn to Ludwig von Mises, one of the defining economists of the 20th century – and paraphrase his idea: growth arises where private capital is guided in a free market by an undistorted price system. Prices signal scarcity and direct scarce resources to where they generate real value. When this system is distorted by ideological intervention, capital is misallocated – potential growth simply evaporates.

That is the theory. And there is no doubt that the reality of emerging economies has repeatedly confirmed the teachings of the Austrian School. Take Argentina, for example: the economic policy shift under President Javier Milei is leading to a rollback of the state and new private investment impulses. That is how it should be: the state as a rule-setting referee, not a player in the economy.

This thesis meets maximum resistance in German editorial offices. There prevails a staunchly statist spirit, a vulgar Hegelianism that regularly loses itself in the labyrinth of economic causality. As a reminder: Milei is the libertarian whom Chancellor Friedrich Merz and German media denounced as a far-right eccentric, accusing him of trampling on his own people. As said: ideologically blinded, intellectually shallow.

On Thursday, Handelsblatt presented its readers with the result of the marriage between green-statist ideology and editorial missionary zeal. In its morning briefing, the author made clear how she interprets the world: at the top, the all-knowing state; far below, the misguided, dependent individual. The piece appeared under the title “When Father State must save German growth” and stands as a case study of the spirit dominating German media. The individual counts for nothing, the state for everything. A hint of Orwell runs through these lines. They are meant to remind us that our economic fate now lies in the hands of an all-knowing federal government. Listening closely, one can still hear the fading odes of the press to former vice chancellor and manager of green chaos Robert Habeck.

Many people find it helpful to embed their existence into the prevailing ideology, thereby relieving themselves of existential responsibility. When this happens on a mass scale, a state within the state emerges – what we call the welfare state. Yet this attitude carries a problem: in journalism it obscures the search for the causes of the current crisis. Editorial work blurs the overregulation of our economy, the destruction of nuclear energy, and clientelist climate policy – together forming the broad delta of deindustrialization.

We are facing a media-historical phenomenon. Magazines such as manager magazin, Handelsblatt, WirtschaftsWoche, and even once-bourgeois papers like FAZ now only vaguely suggest through their names that they were once committed to economic analysis. Condensing tone, imagery, and reporting style, one can hardly escape the impression of a media phalanx of the Green Deal.

The shift in perspective has succeeded. Economic rationality has been replaced by an iron belief in the net-zero cult. For the socialists in editorial offices, a fortunate development – since it is tied to the expansion of a vast state apparatus, conveniently justifying long-term funding of their own activities within the framework of so-called democracy promotion. The state orders – the media deliver: all from a single mold, always in the tone of climate apocalypse.

Manager Magazin confirmed this week the suspicion that even business-oriented outlets operate as a media arm of the green extraction economy. Economics Minister Katherina Reiche, after her cautious criticism of the green subsidy cult, is already depicted on the cover as an oil-soaked fossil-era lobbyist. The rest: a cheer for the energy transition.

The media climax of kneeling before Father State came last year with the presentation of the so-called Draghi Plan. Former Italian prime minister and ECB president Mario Draghi outlined a program intended to lift the eurozone out of stagnation through massive state investment. The plan envisioned around €800 billion annually. Over at least five years, roughly five percent of European GDP would be politically directed. Draghi describes nothing less than a future EU in which economic dynamism is increasingly eroded by state control.

Those who followed media coverage of Draghi’s megalomania rarely encountered dissent. After decades of successful indoctrination – beginning in schools and continuing through universities and media transformed into socialist re-education matrices – this is hardly surprising. Brussels has now largely integrated the plan into the new seven-year budget. Between 2028 and 2034, around €2 trillion will pass through the hands of the Brussels bureaucracy – a remarkable joint success of political elites and their compliant media narrators.

That Draghi, Merz, and von der Leyen are leading us into a new form of socialism under bright daylight is not even up for debate – it is actively reinforced by media work. They pave the ever-widening road into a command economy with rising subsidies and taxes, ultimately resulting in a state quota well above 50 percent – socialism in all but name. The disappearance of market economy is accompanied by massive public-sector expansion: 205,000 new government jobs in just one year – public job creation under state flag.

Meanwhile, the value-creating part of society is bleeding out, while the transformation project coldly smiles at the population. Declining productivity, industrial flight from Germany – a program of impoverishment for the private sector, which was openly mocked by Handelsblatt on Thursday. “Bloodless,” the author called it. Once again, the state must rescue it and pull the chestnuts from the fire – a remarkable worldview given fiscal, regulatory, and energy realities.

You may not notice it – neither at Handelsblatt, manager magazin, Die Zeit, Süddeutsche Zeitung, nor public broadcasting – but their persistent defensive effort, the immunization of the state against criticism, is freezing society in place.

The media form a phalanx shielding government representatives, administration, and the ideological party apparatus from reality. In doing so, they become complicit in enabling the ongoing destruction of the economy. The longer the green transformation unfolds its devastating effects, the more capital and resources are burned – resources needed for rebuilding after the green-statist catastrophe.

Yet nothing happens by chance. Chancellor Merz, like his predecessors Scholz and Merkel, together with the Brussels power cartel, is pursuing a scorched-earth policy. A return to market economy is to be prevented at all costs, despite being the only genuinely democratic and meritocratic form of economic organization. It stands in the way of building green socialism.

Over time, the state apparatus has succeeded in establishing an incentive structure that absorbs people through migration, public employment, or welfare systems into dependency. In such a climate, anyone who raises their voice against the paternal state inevitably stands against the majority – and must expect a storm of outrage.

And as long as Greta Thunberg’s cohorts at Fridays for Future dance in the streets and parts of the population celebrate economic decline as degrowth progress, this children’s party is far from over. A blurred hope remains in the darkest night of the emerging socialism.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 02:00

Ramaswamy Wins Ohio GOP Gubernatorial Primary In Landslide

Biotech entrepreneur and former 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy just beat the pants off of political newcomer Casey Putsch (R) by a margin of 82% - 18% (approximately 530,000 votes to 116,000) in the Ohio gubernatorial primary. 

The win positions Ramaswamy to face Democrat Amy Acton, the former Ohio health director who led the state’s COVID-19 response and won her party’s nomination unopposed, in the November general election. Acton’s running mate is former Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper.

The Republican primary lacked suspense after Ramaswamy, 40, secured early endorsements from President Trump and the state party. Still, the scale of his victory surprised some observers given his relatively recent entry into Ohio politics.

Ramaswamy announced his candidacy in February 2025 after stepping down from his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Trump administration initiative he co-led with Elon Musk. He has framed his gubernatorial bid as a natural extension of that work - bringing a “startup mindset” to Columbus to make Ohio a national leader in innovation, economic growth, and government efficiency.

His campaign was exceptionally well-funded. Ramaswamy raised more than $25 million from donors and contributed another $25 million of his own money, ending the primary with over $30 million in cash on hand — resources he used for a $10 million television ad blitz in the final weeks. The spending underscored his determination to lock down the nomination early and build momentum for the fall.

Still, the scale of his victory was notable given lingering divisions within the GOP base over one of his signature policy positions: H-1B visas.

Calling the system 'badly broken,' Ramaswamy has called for replacing it with a pure merit-based system designed to attract the world’s top STEM and technical talent, insisting this is essential for U.S. competitiveness against China - except he shat on Americans in saying so. In a widely discussed December 2024 post, he attributed American companies’ preference for foreign-born engineers partly to cultural factors, writing that the U.S. has “venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long” and that immigrant families often prioritize achievement more rigorously than “normal” American households.

Critics, including some Trump supporters and anti-H-1B voices, accused him of wanting to displace American workers and favoring foreign (particularly Indian) talent. His primary opponent Casey Putsch and online influencers amplified claims that Ramaswamy’s companies had previously used the program (filing for 29 H-1B visas historically) while publicly criticizing it. The backlash intensified after Trump’s endorsement, with some MAGA accounts posting comments like “Better work on your H-1B visa.”

His brief tenure at DOGE ended when he resigned to pursue the Ohio governorship, a move some critics viewed as opportunistic but which supporters praised as prioritizing state-level impact. Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement on the night Ramaswamy launched his campaign gave him instant credibility with the GOP base.

Democratic Side and General Election Outlook

Amy Acton, 60, has positioned her campaign around affordability - targeting inflation, gas prices, and housing costs. The fact that she was a lockdown nazi during COVID, however, remains a potential vulnerability in a state that has trended strongly Republican in recent cycles.

Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor in nearly two decades. Yet early polling has suggested the general election could be closer than the state’s partisan lean might indicate, particularly if national headwinds affect Trump-aligned candidates or if Acton successfully mobilizes suburban and independent voters.

The race is already shaping up to be one of the most expensive gubernatorial contests in Ohio history.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 23:53

The Petrogas-Dollar: Symptom Or Strategy?

Authored 'No1' via Gold and Geopolitics substack,

Three people sent me Richard Medhurst’s petrogas-dollar piece this week. I read it. Twice even.

There’s a lot in there that I feel is correct.

The chronology of the Levantine Basin deals.

Cheney’s 2001 National Energy Policy.

The roughly $35 billion of Chevron contracts signed across Israel, Syria, Greece, and Cyprus in the past six months.

None of that is in dispute.

The piece is, on the facts, broadly accurate.

What I think though is that the reading of those facts is faulty.

Some history. 

In 1944 Bretton Woods pegged the dollar to gold and made it the world’s reserve currency. In 1971 Nixon unpegged it. Three years later, Kissinger negotiated the Saudi arrangement that pegged it to something else - oil. The petrodollar was born. Everyone needed oil, oil was priced in dollars, thus everyone needed dollars.

Medhurst’s thesis is that the same trick is being repeated, with gas as the new anchor.

The Petrogas-Dollar. Same architecture, new commodity.

But gas isn’t oil.

Oil is fungible at planetary scale. One global market, one rough price band with quality differentials. Tankers go anywhere where there’s a port and a refinery. Every country needs it. Every industry uses it. Almost every modality of transport runs on it.

But gas is regional. LNG requires specialised liquefaction terminals on the export side, cryogenic tankers in transit, and regasification infrastructure on the import side. Each piece takes years and billions to build. Pipeline gas is captive to the geography of the pipe. Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM regularly trade at multiples of each other for what is nominally the same molecule. In 2022, European gas hit roughly 25x the US price - that’s the market telling you that there is no single global gas market, just regional ones tethered by expensive bottlenecks.

Anchoring a settlement currency to gas isn’t a step up from oil in my opinion.

It’s a step down.

Less universal demand, less liquid market, more infrastructure dependency, narrower counterparty base. If oil was the commodity that justified the petrodollar’s reach, gas cannot replace it without shrinking the regime it’s supposed to anchor.

Then there’s what’s been happening to the dollar itself. The moment Western powers froze $300 billion of Russian central bank reserves in 2022, every neutral reserve manager on earth received an unscheduled lesson in what “safe” actually meant in practice.

That lesson is still being absorbed, and the absorption is showing up in central bank gold buying at multi-decade highs, parallel payment rails being onboarded, sovereign Treasury holdings declining year over year.

None of it is dramatic. But all of it is compounding.

So the actual picture Medhurst is painting: a fading anchor (oil-and-dollar) being half-replaced by a structurally narrower one (gas-and-dollar), sitting on top of a settlement currency that’s slowly losing the trust required to function as one in the first place.

That’s a regression on two axes at the same time. Not a strategic plan.

The successor isn’t oil-and-dollar. It sure as ain’t a gas-and-dollar. By elimination of every other alternative, it will come back to gold.

Let’s start with Russia.

That’s where his documentary opens.

“The most severe logistical disruption in modern Russian history”. 40% of seaborne export capacity disabled. Production cuts of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April. (Not an interpretation, those numbers come from OPEC’s monthly report).

The Sirius Report, which tracks vessel movements rather than quotas, has Russian seaborne crude exports flat at 3.5 million barrels per day in April. The Pacific terminals that got hit in the spring strikes are fully recovered by now. The Baltic ports? Kept on loading. Whatever the bombing campaign was supposed to accomplish, it has accidentally functioned as a renovation programme.

The 300-400k figure measures voluntary discipline within the OPEC+ quota framework. It is not a damage assessment. Russia produced slightly less in April because the cartel asked them to, not because there’s a NATO destroyer parked outside Murmansk.

What did happen is that Europe outsourced the demand. They sanctioned Russia. For the 20th time now I guess, because the previous 19 were so successful.

But because even Europe still needs oil, they then turned around and bought the exact same molecules via Indian and Chinese refineries. Who bought it from Russia. At a discount. And mostly in local currencies.

Plus, they sold it at a premium. To Europe. That sanctioned that exact same oil. Great job virtue signaling.

Iran tells a similar story. The piece argues the blockade is starving China of its third-largest oil supplier. TankerTrackers reported on April 24 that Iran exported more oil in the first three weeks of April than in the entire month of March. The blockade has tightened since. WSJ documented loadings dropping in the second half of April, and Project Freedom only formally launched at CENTCOM this morning with 15,000 personnel and over 100 aircraft. The screws are turning, real consequences are landing. (🦗 sidenote: I only hear crickets… 🦗 Still waiting for what news will turn up… 🦗)

But Iran went into this war producing 1.1 million barrels per day at $47 a barrel. Through most of it, production has run around 1.5 million at $110.

I think Trump is pissed right now that he did not receive a “thank you” card yet…

Another argument landed on Saturday - which is after Medhurst’s piece landed. But it doesn’t fit the frame of the article, so I doubt it’ll be added.

US Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical and four Chinese teapot refineries on Friday over Iranian crude purchases.

Hengli isn’t just a teapot. It’s strategic national infrastructure. 280 billion RMB was invested with a 20 million tons annual refining capacity. It’s one of China’s seven major petrochemical bases. Plus the non-sanctioned parent group is the world’s largest shipbuilder.

Now on Saturday, China’s Ministry of Commerce activated the 2021 Blocking Statute. For the first time ever. Chinese firms and individuals are now legally prohibited from recognizing, implementing, or complying with the US sanctions.

Compliance has been removed as a choice.

“Rock, meet hard place” or something like that?

I doubt this will feature in Medhurst’s 25-year plan any time soon.

To me this looks like a reactive escalation against the Treasury announcement.

And THAT is the recurring shape of this whole thing. Every sanction tightens the parallel system. Every escalation removes another counterparty from the dollar rails. This theory isn’t some 5D strategic genius.

It’s an adaptation. Metabolic. Washington swings at whatever part it wants today… And that system adapts.

Bank of Kunlun was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2012 for its Iran-related dealings, in what must have seemed like a good idea at the time. The sanctioning was the strategic move. The consequence - as it so often is - was unintended. By cutting Kunlun out of the dollar system, Treasury also cut its remaining dollar exposure to zero, making it the perfect institutional vehicle for yuan-denominated Iran trade.

For thirteen years now, Iranian oil has flowed to Chinese teapot refineries through Kunlun, settled in RMB, entirely outside SWIFT. Iran can’t easily spend the accumulated yuan in dollars, so it likely converts the surplus to physical gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Iranian oil → yuan → gold. The loop has been running since the year Obama was re-elected. It is now formally protected, on the Chinese side, by a Blocking Statute.

The PBOC has bought gold for seventeen consecutive months. Official reserves are over 74 million troy ounces. The unofficial figure is widely assumed to be substantially higher, given that Chinese domestic mine production since 2000 alone (around 8,150 tonnes) exceeds the entire stated US Treasury holding. China’s US Treasury exposure has fallen from a 2013 peak of $1.32 trillion to $693 billion in February 2026.

Spot is around $4,800 an ounce. Shanghai still trades at consistent premiums to London and COMEX. Chinese banks are rationing 600 kilograms of bullion per bank per day, and every allocation evaporates in under a minute.

While we’re on the subject. The US Treasury carries its own gold holdings on the books at $42.2222 per troy ounce, a statutory price last revised in 1973. Spot is $4,800. The mark-to-market gap is roughly $1.25 trillion. Or said differently: about 3% of its national debt. Or even more differently: if they sell everything, they can run the US government for about a week and a half.

Every $100 that gold rises does add ~$25 billion. I have no idea whether anyone in Treasury has noticed, but I’ve heard a lot of chatter over the years about re-valuating this gold hoard.

The mechanism that I envision instead of a “gas-4-a-dolla’” (not an official US Treasury term… yet) is as I said many times (mainly in comments): internally in a country, the currencies stay fiat. We - the plebs - don’t get to transact in gold and spend 0.03 gram of gold on a gallon of petrol or so. Would be nice, but that’s a pipe-dream in my opinion.

Whatever your local denomination is, be it euro, lira, franc, pound, … Whatever local political pressure or tax laws or domestic monetary systems you have. They’re all localised.

However, cross-border settlement will likely migrate to gold. Not by design. By necessity. By elimination of all worse alternatives.

Every other settlement layer has been politically weaponized over the past six years. The dollar. The euro. SWIFT. CHIPS. Sovereign Treasury holdings. Real estate held in foreign jurisdictions. Central bank reserves. Venezuelan gold seized at the Bank of England in 2019. Russian reserves frozen in 2022. Afghan central bank assets held by the New York Fed since 2021. And Saturday extended the template from sovereign assets to private industrial enterprises.

Gold is the only major asset whose ownership cannot be cancelled by a remote click. It clears bilaterally. It doesn’t care whose face is on the coin. It survives the political weaponisation of every other settlement layer because the weaponisation is the entire reason central banks moved away from it in the first place.

No1 is publishing a roadmap.

There’s no public announcement.

It’s a destination by exclusion - the asset everyone ends up at after the others have been removed.

The petrogas-dollar framing fails on its own terms.

A new monetary regime needs a stable, durable, broadly-accepted anchor. The thesis says the anchor is American gas plus Western Hemisphere oil. The largest LNG producer on earth is already at full export capacity. Henry Hub is at multi-year highs because domestic supply can’t keep up with what’s already been promised. The captured Western Hemisphere reserves require Chevron to actually extract them rather than sign contracts for them. The Levantine Basin gas fields are still in the ground, five months after the deals were inked.

A monetary regime also needs counterparties willing to use it. The petrogas-dollar thesis describes a world where Europe and Asia have no choice but to buy American. In the actual world, the UAE quit OPEC effective May 1 after threatening yuan-denominated oil sales. Saudi Arabia gave 12 million of its citizens access to China’s CIPS payment network the day after that. Iran’s parliament codified yuan and Tether settlement at Hormuz - they’re still deciding on Tether after it got frozen (link). China activated the Blocking Statute on Saturday.

The monetary system is moving.

But it’s not moving to Washington.

The third variable is Trump. The thesis requires you to believe that the same administration that fired its own Navy Secretary three weeks ago for not building ships fast enough is, simultaneously, executing a coherent 25-year plan to reorganize global energy markets and replace fifty years of monetary architecture. Trump and 25-year strategic patience are two phrases that have, to my knowledge, never previously occupied the same sentence before.

Don’t get me wrong. The petrodollar won’t be dying tomorrow.

The US still has the world’s deepest capital markets, the most-traded currency, and the only Treasury market with anywhere near the absorption capacity to hold global savings. Reserve currency status takes decades to erode. The Bank of England held that status for over a century before the dollar took it, and at no point during the slide did anyone in London publish a piece announcing the handover.

Medhurst is right that there’s a transformation under way.

But I strongly believe that he has the direction wrong.

All this chaos ain’t producing a stronger empire.

It’s producing a more fragmented monetary architecture, and gold is starting to fill the gaps the dollar used to fill.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 23:25

Meteorologists Sound Alarm Over El Nino Plume Racing Across Pacific Like "Freight Train"

Meteorologists on X are once again warning about a powerful El Niño, pointing to a new plume of warm subsurface water moving across the Pacific "like a freight train." The latest water temperature data suggest that El Niño later this year could rank among the strongest on record, with potentially significant implications for the Lower 48.

"Updated El Niño forecast for this summer/autumn is 'off the charts' EXTREME with 'boiling red' map colors along Equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean," meteorologist Ryan Maue wrote on X. He said this is "code red the Earth's climate system going into Summer 2026," which only means "suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity." 

Updated El Niño forecast for this summer/autumn is "off the charts" EXTREME with "boiling red 🔴" map colors along Equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

This is "Code Red" for the Earth's climate system going into Summer 2026 --> suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity. pic.twitter.com/NSCJPak6Xt

— Ryan Maue (@RyanWeather) May 5, 2026

Meteorologist Ben Noll said, "A brand new El Niño plume from ECMWF reaches +3˚C in most scenarios by November, which would put this event among the strongest on record."

Breaking: Brand new El Niño plume from ECMWF reaches +3˚C in most scenarios by November, which would put this event near the strongest on record. pic.twitter.com/m2OOTeXcx8

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) May 5, 2026

Noll continued, "A freight train of warm water continues to chug across the subsurface Pacific Ocean."

Super El Niño: A freight train of warm water continues to chug across the subsurface Pacific Ocean.

The level of warmth is record-breaking in some areas, peaking around 7˚C (13˚F) above average.

This heat should lead to more intense El Niño projections in May model updates. pic.twitter.com/Y3YKFbgMA7

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) May 4, 2026

If a super El Niño materializes, it could shift weather patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of flooding in some regions, drought and wildfires in others, and further raising global temperatures. An El Niño event typically strengthens the Pacific jet stream and redistributes heat and moisture globally.

Across the U.S., an El Niño influences seasonal rainfall, especially during winter. The stronger, more active jet stream typically shifts southward, bringing wetter-than-average conditions to the southern U.S., including California, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-South.

The good news is that El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 23:00

Industry Leaders Warn Chinese EV Imports Will Undercut Canada's Auto Sector, Bring Major Security Risks

Authored by Paul Rowan Brian via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A number of industry leaders and policy experts are warning that the government’s permission of importing Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada at low tariff rates will undermine Canada’s auto sector and cause a number of substantial national security risks.

Models stand next to a latest EV car from Chinese automaker BYD showcased at the Auto China 2026 in Beijing on April 25, 2026. Andy Wong/AP Photo

The warnings came in testimony before the House Committee on Industry and Technology, where the speakers said that Ottawa’s quota-based access to Chinese EV makers will make Canada vulnerable to unfair trade practices from Beijing, hollow out the country’s already-struggling auto industry, and bring along a host of security risks associated with data collection and surveillance.

“Let’s be clear, this is not the approach Canada wanted,” Michael Kovrig, head of the Global Network for Strategic Effects, said while testifying May 4 before the committee.

EV Deal

The import of Chinese-made EVs comes under the terms of an agreement between Ottawa and Beijing signed in January of this year that allows the import of up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs in the first year at a tariff rate of 6.1 percent, down from 100 percent.

Ottawa has indicated the quota could rise to approximately 70,000 vehicles per year over the next five years.

As part of the agreement, Beijing moved to cut tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports, slashing tariffs from 84–100 percent on Canadian canola products to 15 percent and relaxing restrictions on other products including seafood and peas.

Ottawa also said it expects China will invest in the Canadian auto sector and possibly set up auto manufacturing inside Canada as part of the wider agreement.

Canada opened permits for Chinese-made EVs on March 1, under which 24,500 will be allowed until August under the 6.1 percent tariff rate. Permits are issued by Global Affairs Canada and last 60 days before expiry. Importers are required to be Canada-based automakers or agents of them, and vehicles must comply with Canadian safety standards.

Ottawa said it plans to review and potentially change how the import system works after the first six months.

‘Trifecta of Risks’

Kovrig said that allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada causes a “trifecta of risks,” which he described as creating “structural dependence” on China, along with “unfair competition [that] erodes industrial capacity” and imposing a “systemic pressure” on government policy going forward.

“The real question is not, ‘don’t we want cheaper EVs?’” Kovrig said. “It’s whether Canada wants to be a producer in the future auto economy, or merely a consumer market for vehicles produced by China’s industrial system.”

Kovrig’s concerns were echoed by Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.

“There are no guardrails in this agreement to ensure a level-playing field for manufacturers that have invested in Canada, or to protect Canadians from cybersecurity risks,” Kingston told MPs.

Kingston added that demand for EVs is closely tied to government incentives rather than free-market forces, and that serious harm could be done to the North American auto supply chain.

“Demand for EVs is directly related to rebates, and we saw it when the previous federal government rebate went away, we saw demand for EVs decline quite significantly,” he said, adding that import of Chinese-made EVs “will undermine the auto sector and presents risks to the North American auto supply chain.”

Canada’s auto sector remains a major part of the economy and directly employs roughly 125,000 workers, the majority of whom are employed in Ontario. More than 90 percent of Canadian-made vehicles are exported to the United States.

Kingston also said that keeping access to the U.S. market is crucial for Canada and “there is no industry without U.S. access,” saying that opening up to Chinese imports could undermine North American integration.

In mid-January, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada’s deal with China was “problematic.” This was followed on Jan. 24 by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to put 100 percent tariffs on Canadian goods in response to the deal.

Controls

Several Liberal MPs on the committee asked questions about the economic and security issues related to importing Chinese-made EVs, stating that it could help Canadian consumers access more affordable vehicles and move Canada closer to climate goals.

For her part, Liberal MP Lisa Hepfner asked whether Canada could put conditions on Chinese firms, such as on domestic labour, security, and standards, in order for them to be allowed to import the vehicles.

Kingston said such an approach won’t work.

“If you say that you have to have a local supply chain and use local unionized labour, the response from a Chinese OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer] is, ’thanks, but no thanks,'” he said.

“The moment they want more access, they will restrict our exports of canola. They'll come up with other reasons to leverage more access into the market. This is the Chinese trade playbook. You can see it in sector after sector in different countries,” he added.

Kovrig shared this view, saying that Beijing tends to use a quota as a “ratchet” to force more market access.

“What begins as a capped quota becomes a ratchet that only expands. Concentrated sectoral economic dependence also constricts federal policy-making autonomy,” he said.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] weaponizes technology, supply chains, and market access to coerce independence to its geopolitical agenda.”

He added that “forced labour” is also part of the Chinese EV supply chain and cited evidence from Sheffield Hallam University linking forced labour of China’s ethnic Uyghur population to key battery and EV production stages.

Kingston added that even if China were to build a factory in Canada, it would likely be a human rights and economic disaster.

“If they build a plant, they bring in labour from China. And as we’ve seen in Hungary, the conditions have been characterized as slave-like conditions,” he said, referring to a Chinese-operated factory in Hungary.

Benefits of EVs

Several industry leaders who testified before the committee said EVs would be a net positive for Canada.

Jeff Turner, director of Mobility at Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors, said EVs would help Canadians in various ways, including by bringing “almost $2,000 per year in fuel savings per household and reductions of GHG emissions and other emissions that have significant health impacts for Canadians.”

Cherith Sinasac of the Electro-Canada Foundation also emphasized her view of the positive role that EVs could have and said their origin is much less important than infrastructure readiness.

“Canada needs a strong long-term EV charging infrastructure strategy,” she said, adding that there must be a coordinated investment strategy by provinces and economic sectors.

“EVs and their battery storage have the potential to be a national energy asset for our grid,” Sinasac said.

Security Risks

Kingston and Kovrig both said that in addition to economic damage, bringing in Chinese-made EVs could pose security risks, including potential data access concerns and dangers to national security.

“China’s 2017 National Intelligence law compels any Chinese firm, including from overseas operations, to share data with Beijing on demand,” Kovrig said. “There’s no judicial review and no challenge mechanism.”

Kovrig described Chinese-made EVs as “a rolling computer with cameras” that are “state-linked data platforms.”

This echoed similar concerns from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who stated his opposition to allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada this past January, writing on X that such vehicles “function like roving surveillance systems on our streets [and] should not be allowed in Canada - collecting data, tracking Canadians and exposing us to a foreign regime.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 22:35

Figure CEO Says Humanoid Robots Could Soon Enter Homes For $600 A Month

Figure's CEO told Sourcery's Molly O'Shea that the humanoid robotics company is preparing for a "near-term" push to bring humanoid robots into homes, where they would perform basic household tasks under a consumer subscription model that could cost "hundreds per month," similar to a car lease.

Molly O'Shea asked Figure CEO Brett Adcock:

"In the near term, what do you see as the first commercial application for these robots? Like, is it gonna be in the home? Is it gonna be in the factory?"

Adcock responded:

"In the near term, we're gonna be selling these into the home. So you can lease a Figure 03 for something like $600 a month."

He continued:

"Yeah. You can plug it into a wall outlet, and it'll go to its dock and charge. I want it to do the laundry every day, dishes every day, and tidy the house multiple times a day. That's what I want."

.@adcock_brett says in the "near term" @Figure_robot will sell humanoid robots for the home for ~$600/month:

"You can plug it in a wall outlet, it'll go to its dock and charge."

"I want it to do the laundry every day, dishes every day, and tidy the house multiple times a day." https://t.co/z1GlCILVW9 pic.twitter.com/n8lFocjUy1

— sourcery (@sourceryy) May 5, 2026

Adcock posted a chart on Threads showing, he said, "Humanoid robots manufactured at Figure by month," revealing a clear production ramp.

However, the chart lacked a Y-axis, leaving the actual shipment numbers unclear.

Forbes pointed out that shipments may have climbed from roughly 60 units in February to 120 in March and 240 in April. However, those shipment numbers remain far below China's Agibot, which reportedly shipped 5,000 humanoids over three months.

Our latest note on the humanoid robot space, including UBS's delivery estimates, is available here.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 22:10

The Golden State Has Fallen: Welcome To The Islamic Republic Of California

Authored by Rabbi Michael Barclay via American Greatness,

On April 8, the California Assembly Committee on Public Employment and Retirement voted 19–0 to adopt AB2017, followed on April 22 by the California Assembly Committee on Appropriations, which voted 7–0 to adopt the bill. And with those votes, all that is left for this to become California law is the passing of it by the State Assembly and Senate and approval by the governor.

And with it, the state of California will no longer exist as we know it, but will become the Islamic Republic of California.

Introduced by California Assemblyman Matt Haney (D-San Francisco 17th District) at the behest of CAIR, the bill seeks to officially recognize the Islamic holidays of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha as California state holidays.

There are no holidays from other religions that are recognized as state holidays in California.

Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, and Epiphany are all extremely important holidays in Judaism and Christianity.

But none of them are recognized as California state holidays.

But according to Haney and the California legislature, apparently, Islamic holidays are much more important to the state than either Judaism or Christianity.

This bill is clearly unconstitutional, as it is in direct contradiction to the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . .”

By placing two Islamic holidays as official state holidays, they are respecting the establishment of a specific religion. But the problem is greater than just their violation of the Constitution in attempting to pass this bill.

The holidays themselves, Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, are expressions and manifestations of the very worst aspects of Islam.

Eid al-Fitr marks the end of the Islamic month of Ramadan and is the penultimate celebration of the month and its meanings. Ramadan is the month-long holiday commemorating Mohammed’s first vision in 610 CE, in which he supposedly was visited by the angel Gabriel (named Jibril in Arabic) in a cave near Mecca and given a revelation that ultimately became the Quran. It is a month of fasting and a national holiday in countries such as Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Muslim theocracies.

It is also traditionally the month of war in Islam. Although war is forbidden in the Quran during four other months (the 1st, 7th, 11th, and 12th), it is not only allowed during Ramadan; it has historically been encouraged to be a month of initiating war against “infidels.” The Yom Kippur War against Israel in 1973 was started by the Arabs during Ramadan. Three years ago, Ismail Haniyeh, who was considered the political leader of Hamas (and who lived in Qatar until killed in July of 2024 and had a net worth of over two billion dollars), called for all Arabs to attack Israel during Ramadan and to siege and blockade the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and have continual mass riots there. Ramadan, going back to Mohammed himself, is the time to start wars on non-Muslims and is a source of Islamic pride as the time to forcefully convert the world to Islam. The Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s official arm in Syria, has even described Ramadan as “a month of conquests.”

Some historical examples of the Islamic intention during Ramadan include the Battle of Badr, a victory led by Mohammed himself in the second Ramadan; the conquest of Mecca, 6 years after Badr; the war for Andalusia in 711 CE; the Battle of Ain Jalut against the Mongols; and the Battle of Hattin during the Crusades.

And that’s just in the first 200 years of Islamic history.

But Matt Haney and the California Legislature want to make this holiday, which is about military victory over non-Muslims, into an official state holiday!

And then there is the second Islamic holiday that they want to make an official state holiday: Eid al-Adha, the “Feast of the Sacrifice.” This is a holiday about being willing to violently sacrifice and kill if it is commanded by Allah. It includes throwing stones at a wall to symbolize the willingness to fight for the “will of God” by stoning Satan and exemplifies the observant Islamic belief in stoning when “required.” Animals are also sacrificed as part of this holiday’s celebration. And this is not a small sacrifice of one chicken for an entire community, but rather, the expectation is that each Muslim will perform animal sacrifices.

In Bangladesh, 13 million animals are sacrificed each year; in Pakistan, more than nine million; and globally, it is estimated that approximately 50 million animals are sacrificed each year for this Islamic holiday.

Each year, this holiday causes the death of 50 million animals and encourages the practice of stoning anything that is contradictory to the Quran, Hadith, and Islamic theology. And this is the holiday that Haney and his Democratic colleagues in the California State Legislature want to make into an official state holiday.

War, stoning, and animal sacrifice—these are the values that have been unanimously approved by the committee, and are on track to becoming approved by the California government.

Yom Kippur is a Jewish holiday about the value of being self-reflective and atoning for our personal sins. Epiphany is a Christian holiday celebrating the baptism of Jesus; Good Friday deepens the Christian faith as it honors the sacrifice of Jesus on the cross for all of humanity; and Ash Wednesday reminds Christians of the journey of Jesus during Lent that leads to the Resurrection on Easter. Atonement, spiritual awareness, faith in God: these are values that the State of California rejects as holidays while honoring the Islamic values of war and death.

With the passing of this bill, which is not certain but is highly likely, California will officially have gone off the cliff, rejecting Western civilization in favor of officially adopting Islamic practices and values.

Rest in peace, California. We will miss you.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 21:45

Tech Bros Aim To Sidestep Local Resistance By Installing Mini Data Centers In Homes

California-based startup Span has developed XFRA, a distributed AI-compute network that turns unused electrical capacity in residential homes and small businesses into miniature data centers.  

It may be one of the more ingenious workarounds yet from tech bros, as traditional data-center buildouts are increasingly delayed or canceled, not only because of permitting bottlenecks and grid constraints, but also because of rising local opposition.

Across parts of the country, ordinary folks are watching power bills surge, while AI hyperscalers are set to splurge $700 billion on data center buildouts this year alone. XFRA appears to be a convenient sidestep of local opposition by tech bros, transforming homes into miniature data center nodes. 

“Comprising a distributed network of compute nodes located in residential and small commercial spaces, XFRA enables both the immediate and future compute needs of hyperscalers, neoscalers and AI cloud providers,” Span revealed earlier this month.

SPAN says XFRA is already running revenue-generating test units and plans a 100-unit test later this year, with broad U.S. deployment planned for 2027. This deployment next year could scale to more than 1 gigawatt of AI inference compute capacity.

According to a LinkedIn video, Span CEO Arch Rao says each node contains Dell PowerEdge servers with 16 Nvidia RTX Pro 6000 Blackwell GPUs, 4 AMD EPYC CPUs, and 3 TB of RAM, connected to a 24-port gigabit switch.

In the XFRA White Paper, Rao outlined how XFRA would install an “energy and compute system, including SPAN panel, whole-home battery backup system, along with the XFRA compute Node, at no cost to homeowners.”

The white paper then describes how homeowners benefit from a backyard data center: “XFRA pays the homeowner a monthly rental to subsidize their energy and high-speed broadband bills such that they are a fraction of what they would normally be. This offers homeowners a sizable discount, and predictability in their monthly billing.”

"your mortgage basically pays for itself" 1,2

1) mortgage may be 20%-40% higher
2) homeowner's job will migrate to collocated data center https://t.co/vBJv3cZAVm

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 5, 2026

News of the backyard data center concept first circulated earlier this month. The topic resurfaced on Tuesday when CNBC reported that Nvidia and homebuilder PulteGroup are helping SPAN install mini data centers in homes.

X users had a lot to say about the backyard data-center concept: 

putting compute on residential meters is how they bypass every local zoning fight

— StockStorm (@StockStormX) May 5, 2026

2027 home invasion:

“Leave the jewelry. Where are the Blackwells?”

— Maximilian Ruess (@MaximilianRu29) May 5, 2026

people are stealing copper wire and they want us to put ~$300k worth of electronics on the outside of our homes?

— DAM (@damcurious) May 5, 2026

Running at 8 hours a day off peak would only cost about 17k just in electrical- no mention on how to cool it, or what external connectivity options are. Californias load can't even sustain the EV's currently on grid and people think we should be putting half rack AI clusters in…

— Business Tactical (@Bacon_Is_King) May 5, 2026

Only a matter of time before politicians try to ban backyard data centers... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 21:20

Texas Doctor Found Guilty For Illegally Distributing Millions Of Opioid Pills

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal jury in Texas found a physician guilty of unlawfully distributing over a million pills of opioids and other controlled substances from a Houston-area clinic that operated as a pill mill, the Justice Department announced Monday.

Tablets of opioid painkiller Oxycodone delivered on medical prescription in Washington on Sept. 18, 2019. Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images

Dr. Barbara Marino, 65, of Tomball, was the sole prescribing physician at Angels Clinica, where she prescribed oxycodone, hydrocodone, and the muscle relaxer carisoprodol despite no legitimate medical purpose. The clinic accepted only cash and charged based on the prescriptions.

“Medical physicians who exploit their prescribing authority for profit over patient care break an inherent trust with their patients and we will hold them accountable,” Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald of the Justice Department’s National Fraud Enforcement Division said in a statement. “The Department of Justice remains committed to protecting the public from dangerous and unlawful distribution of controlled substances, especially when the drug dealer is a doctor.”

DEA Assistant Administrator Cheri Oz said patients put their trust and lives into the hands of medical and health care professionals.

“The highly addictive, dangerous misused drugs in this case—oxycodone and hydrocodone—are meant to treat pain, not cause it,” Oz said. “DEA remains relentless in our pursuit of those who poison our communities and exploit our health care system, all to line their own pockets with the profit from other’s pain.”

Prosecutors noted that many patients were delivered by street-level “crew leaders” or “runners” who then filled the prescriptions and peddled the pills. Marino received over $400,000 in less than a year for writing the scripts, while ignoring red flags outlined in Texas pharmacy board guidance, prescribing the strongest short-acting versions of the drugs to nearly every patient.

In the trial, jurors heard of a pregnant woman in her third trimester who received the opioid-muscle relaxer combination, and a patient diagnosed with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The jury found Marino guilty of one count of conspiracy to distribute a controlled substance and four counts of distributing a controlled substance. She could be sentenced up to 20 years in prison per count.

At Marino’s trial, an OB/GYN testified to the dangers to the pregnant patient and her unborn child. The prosecutor argued in closing arguments that the woman “didn’t go to her doctor, she went to her drug dealer.”

The DEA investigated the case, and the Justice Department’s Criminal Division Fraud Section trial attorneys prosecuted the case, along with the Texas Attorney General’s Office Medicaid Fraud Control Unit. Sentencing for Marino has not yet been scheduled.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 20:55