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USAF Stratotanker Squawks 7700 Emergency Near Doha

The fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz flared up Monday and into the overnight hours, with IRGC forces reportedly striking multiple commercial vessels and a UAE oil refinery.

The one positive development: with U.S. forces on heightened alert, two U.S.-flagged merchant ships successfully transited the maritime chokepoint as Project Freedom began, marking the first visible move by the U.S. Navy to unfreeze the world's most critical energy corridor.

U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, said its aerial assets in the Hormuz area were busy on Monday, with helicopters and other aircraft combating IRGC forces to ensure the safe transit of the two ships.

Flight-tracking website Flightradar24 reported early Tuesday that a U.S. Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker, a military aerial-refueling aircraft, squawked "7700" after operating in a tight pattern near the Hormuz chokepoint.

"A U.S. Air Force KC-135 is squawking 7700, flying in the direction of Doha," Flightradar24 wrote on X.

A US Air Force KC-135 is squawking 7700 flying in the direction of Doha. https://t.co/wxldcwLX1g

For more information on ‘Squawking 7700’ please see https://t.co/nW7vZ4JgMF pic.twitter.com/AYffNcZGKt

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) May 5, 2026

Flightradar24 had no additional information on why the KC-135 crew squawked 7700. Some possible reasons include:

• Mechanical failure

• Engine problems

• Fire or smoke

• Medical emergency

• Loss of pressurization

• Fuel emergency

• Other serious onboard problems

Separate but notable, UBS analyst Dominic Ellis provided clients with energy market commentary following the overnight Hormuz chaos:

Brent Down From Intraday Highs, Though Up 7% Relative To Monday's Low The fragile ceasefire in the Persian Gulf seems to be on the verge of collapse after Iran responded to Project Freedom, the US effort to restart transit through the Strait of Hormuz, by launching attacks on commercial vessels and energy infrastructure in the region.

Brent is down from the intraday high over $114/b but remains close to $113/b, up almost 7% relative to Monday’s low.

The US denies Iranian claims that a US navy vessel was hit, but acknowledges damage to a South Korean cargo vessel. The UAE blamed an Iranian drone attack for a fire in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, concerning given the role Fujairah plays in allowing some regional oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Maersk said on Tuesday that one of its vessels, the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax, was successfully escorted through the Strait of Hormuz by US military assets, part of a US convoy involving at least one other US-flagged merchant vessel according to US Central Command.

It remains to be seen whether this was a one-off or evidence that the Iranian ability to disrupt flows via the Strait has been seriously degraded.

Oil could rapidly retreat below $100/b if it appears that the Iranian stranglehold on the Strait has been weakened, but even intermittent attacks on shipping would keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated and the volume of tanker traffic well below the level required for the oil S/D balance to normalise.

The next few days will be crucial – keep an eye on shipping data in the UBS Hormuz Tracker.

CENTCOM and U.S. officials have not provided any details so far on the KC-135's emergency or what caused it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 07:20

Dell Board Unanimously Backs Redomiciliation To Texas As Delaware Exodus Accelerates

Dell Technologies' Board of Directors unanimously approved a proposal to move the company's state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas. This adds to the growing trend of redomiciliation, with companies such as Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, Coinbase, Affirm, TripAdvisor, eXp World Holdings, and others moving from Delaware to business-friendly states.

Shareholders will vote on the redomiciliation at Dell's upcoming 2026 annual meeting on June 25. "The proposed redomestication would align Dell Technologies' state of incorporation with its roots and long-standing center of operations," the company wrote in a press release.

Dell said the move would align its legal home with its corporate origin story: Michael Dell founded the company in Austin in 1984, and today Dell's headquarters, CEO, and largest concentration of U.S. employees are all based in Texas.

"From my dorm room at the University of Texas in 1984 to our headquarters today in Round Rock, Texas, has given Dell what every great company needs to grow — extraordinary talent, world-class research universities, and a business environment that lets us build for the long term," said Dell CEO Michael Dell. "Texas is where Dell has innovated, expanded, and invested for more than four decades, and bringing our legal home to Texas reflects what we've been building here all along."

If shareholders approve the move, the company plans to opt into Texas provisions that would require investors to own at least 3% of shares or $1 million of stock, whichever is lower, to submit shareholder proposals.

A separate Texas rule would require shareholders to hold a 3% ownership stake to bring derivative lawsuits against management.

The exodus from Delaware all began when a left-wing Delaware judge challenged Elon Musk over his Tesla compensation package.

Delaware Court of Chancery's January 2024 decision voiding Musk's roughly $56 billion 2018 pay package, after a shareholder lawsuit argued Tesla's board process was flawed and too controlled by Musk.

After that ruling, Musk publicly urged Tesla to reincorporate in Texas and asked shareholders to approve the move.

This is what followed next:

Lefty activism in courts is bad for business. FAFO.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 06:55

Is Europe Sliding Towards Stagflation?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Europe is not yet in recession, but the latest business and consumer surveys show that the risk is no longer remote.

The euro area’s flash composite PMI fell to 48.6 in April from 50.7 in March, moving below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and signalling a quarterly GDP decline of around 0.1 per cent after a 0.2 per cent gain in the first quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

At the same time, the European Commission’s flash consumer-confidence indicator dropped to -20.6 in the euro area and -19.4 in the EU, both significantly below their long-term averages and the weakest readings since 2022, according to the European Commission.

The most worrying part of the PMI release is not just that output is contracting. It is that the contraction is arriving both in services and manufacturing and with renewed inflation pressure.

Input costs rose in April at the fastest pace since the end of 2022, while selling-price inflation reached a 37-month high, with S&P Global noting that its prices-charged index is consistent with consumer inflation running near 4 per cent.

That is the dangerous mix Europe should have learned to avoid after the energy crisis of 2022: weaker activity, higher costs, and policy complacency.

The war with Iran is the immediate shock, but it is not the cause of Europe’s vulnerability. As in 2022, an external crisis has exposed the internal weaknesses that politicians prefer to ignore: high taxes, excessive regulation, rigid labour markets, low productivity, energy dependence, and an industrial policy increasingly driven by ideology.

Europe had years to prepare for external shocks, strengthen security of supply, develop domestic resources, diversify energy sources, and reduce the tax burden on companies.

Instead, too many governments chose interventionism, subsidies, and higher public spending and are now dusting off the rationing rhetoric.

Interventionism that will backfire

Europe survived the 2022 energy crisis less because of brilliant policy and more because of temporary relief: a mild winter, emergency purchases of liquefied natural gas and weak Asian demand for some cargoes.

That window should have been used to reopen nuclear capacity, accelerate domestic resource development, secure long-term gas contracts and reduce the regulatory burden on industries. Instead, numerous governments regarded a fortunate escape as a policy triumph.

Europe remains exposed to disruptions in global LNG markets, instability in the Middle East, possible Russian supply interruptions and the rising cost of competing with Asia for energy cargoes.

A region that deliberately limits its energy options, taxes productive activity aggressively and imposes ideological constraints on investment should not be surprised when every geopolitical shock becomes an economic emergency.

Instead of allowing firms to invest, adapt, and secure alternatives, governments respond to scarcity with more controls, more intervention, and more taxation

European governments are talking about windfall profit taxes, demand control, and rationing. Instead of supporting and incentivising the companies that can secure supply and strengthen chains, they prefer to implement more interventionism that, again, will only backfire.

The April PMI data show that the impact is spreading. S&P Global says the war is hitting services hardest, with activity falling at a pace not seen since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021, while manufacturing output is being supported partly by stock-building rather than genuine demand strength.

This matters because services were the engine that kept Europe’s weak recovery alive. If services roll over while industry remains burdened by high taxes, elevated energy costs, and regulation, the cushion disappears.

Supply chains are also deteriorating again. Supplier delivery times lengthened in April by the most since July 2022. This is the classic European policy trap: instead of allowing firms to invest, adapt, and secure alternatives, governments respond to scarcity with more controls, more intervention, and more taxation.

I find it staggering to read that some European governments want to increase taxes precisely on the companies that can deliver supply security solutions – a clear disincentive to productive improvement.

Approaching a policy test

Consumer confidence confirms the damage. The European Commission reported that confidence fell by 4.2 percentage points in the euro area in April and by 4.0 points in the EU, continuing what it calls a “free fall” since the start of the Iran war.

Households are not reacting only to headlines from the Middle East. They are reacting to a familiar reality: expensive energy, high taxes, weak real disposable income, uncertainty about employment, and governments that offer more restrictions rather than more growth.

Europe is, again, approaching a policy test. The correct response is not rationing, price controls, or new attacks on business. The correct response is deregulation, lower taxes, faster permitting, energy realism, and a serious strategy to rebuild industrial competitiveness.

The euro area does not lack talent, capital, or companies capable of solving supply challenges. It lacks governments willing to remove obstacles.

The latest PMIs and consumer-confidence numbers do not mean that Europe is already in recession. However, they show that the region is dangerously close to repeating the mistakes of 2022, which resulted in persistent dependence from Russia and weaker industrial output.

The lesson is obvious. External shocks are inevitable, but strategic weakness is a choice.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 06:30

Ceasefire Over? Trump Downplays 'Mini-War' After US & Iranians Trade Shots, Missiles Target UAE Summary

• Trump employs interesting new term: "We’re in, I call it a mini-war."

• Fujairah says 3 injured in Iranian attack on Oil Industry Zone, UAE confirms "air defenses are now dealing with a missile threat", we have gotten reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red. UAE threatens retaliation. 

• CENTCOM hails two US merchant ships exiting Hormuz Strait safely in "first step". Bessent issues remarks warning the US "will fire if fired upon."

• Iran insists Hormuz is under its control & says it targeted & struck a US Navy vessel, which the Pentagon/Central Command has denied.

• Trump announced Sunday US will 'help free up' ships stuck in Hormuz Strait through Project Freedom. Iran has in response issued a "redefined the control zone" in Strait of Hormuz.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 37% · No 64%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

The 'Mini War'

It's looking like the White House does not wish to given up just yet on the ceasefire, given this afternoon President Trump referenced the conflict as a "mini-war" - as opposed to a full blown war - in what seemed like an effort to downplay today's dramatic events. Not only did missiles rain down on the UAE, sparking a fire at a key oil facility, but the US Navy said it destroyed seven Iranian military boats. Here's what Trump said.

“They did a poll on the war with Iran, and they said only 32% of the people like it,” Trump said, without specifying who conducted the poll. “Well, I don’t like it, I don’t like war at all.”

“We’re in, I call it a mini-war,” Trump added a few moments later.

Trump has previously said he’s been advised to not call it a war. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said last week that the U.S. is currently “not at war.”

Meanwhile, more details via CENTCOM on the earlier flare-up, which separately saw the UAE engage 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones on Monday:

US Central Command (Centcom) says it has used helicopters to destroy Iranian small boats.

It follows US President Donald Trump's suggestion that the US has struck seven Iranian small boats as it works to open the Strait of Hormuz. "Earlier today, Sea Hawk and U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopters were used to eliminate Iranian small boats threatening commercial shipping", Centcom writes in a social media update.

Ceasefire Broken? Israel Awaiting US Greenlight, Trump Downplays

There remain lingering questions over whether the US-Iran ceasefire has definitively broken down with today's Iranian attack on the UAE, as well as tit-for-tat hostilities in the Persian Gulf area. This as Israeli media says the Netanyahu government is awaiting a 'green light' to attack Iran again. Also the UAE is now planning a 'severe retaliatory response' and 'harsh revenge' against Tehran, per MS Now.

Yet strangely, the latest statement out of CENTCOM doesn't touch on the question of a broken ceasefire, and President Trump himself has been silent on the matter, per the AP:

Cooper declined to say whether the exchange of hostilities between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz today amounted to an end to the ceasefire agreement. Cooper told reporters in a phone call this afternoon that Iran “initiated aggressive behavior” in the strait, according to a readout of the call provided by The Associated Press. “What we saw this morning was Iran initiating aggressive behaviors,” Cooper said. “We are simply going to respond to that.”

Trump's response:

In a phone conversation a short while ago, President Trump stopped short of saying Iran has violated the ceasefire.

Regarding the Iranian drone and missile attacks on UAE today: “They were shot down for the most part,” Trump told me. “One got through. Not huge damage.”…

— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) May 4, 2026

Meanwhile, amid the looming threat of bigger, renewed war:

UAE SAYS ALL SCHOOLS TO SWITCH TO REMOTE LEARNING

UAE Threatens Military Response

A fresh official statement: "The United Arab Emirates strongly condemns the new Iranian attacks that targeted civilian sites and facilities in the country, using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, which resulted in the injury of three Indian nationals."

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed in its statement that these attacks constitute a serious and reckless escalation, and a blatant violation of the security and stability of the state, as well as a clear violation of the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter." And the UAE followed with the threat that it has the right to respond militarily against ongoing "aggression and provocation": 

The UAE stressed that it will not tolerate any aggression against its security and sovereignty, and that it will respond with full force and firmness to these attacks, in a manner that fully protects its national security and the safety of its citizens and residents, in accordance with international law.

There are further confirmed reports of injuries and a fire at one or more oil facilities:

Three Indian nationals have been injured in the drone attack on Fujairah’s petroleum industrial site being blamed on Iran, the Fujairah Media Office says. The three have been taken to the hospital and their injuries have been termed “moderate”.

UAE, Bahrain, Oman Under Threat

UAE air defences are actively engaging multiple Iranian missile and drone threats today, with the Ministry of Defence confirming four cruise missiles were detected heading toward the country; three were successfully intercepted over territorial waters while the fourth fell into the sea. Explosions have been reported in the Dubai area as air defence systems responded, prompting the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) to issue public safety alerts. In Fujairah, Iranian drones struck the Petroleum Industries Zone, causing a fire at the critical oil export terminal that includes the VTTI facility - the UAE’s key Hormuz-bypass hub. The Fujairah Media Office has confirmed three Indian citizens were moderately injured in the attack, marking the first reported civilian casualties in the current wave. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) separately reported suspicious activity and a fire aboard a cargo vessel approximately 36 nautical miles north of Dubai, with cause unknown.  

The incidents unfold against a backdrop of heightened US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claims control and has warned it will “forcefully stop” vessels violating its regulations, while denying US reports of safe transits under “Project Freedom.” CENTCOM has rejected Iranian claims of striking a US Navy vessel. Markets reacted sharply: Brent crude pushed back toward session highs above $119, E-mini futures turned lower, equities sold off, and the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.01% for the first time since July. The situation remains fluid with conflicting claims on both sides, and further official updates from UAE authorities are expected.

Injuries Reported

The Fujairah Media Office / Emirate has confirmed that 3 Indian citizens/residents were moderately injured in today’s Iranian drone attack on the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone (oil industry complex).

• Injuries are described as moderate (no fatalities reported).
• This is the first confirmed civilian injuries from the current wave of attacks.
• The incident is directly linked to the VTTI oil facility strike and the fire reported minutes earlier in the same zone.

Dubai, UAE Oil Infrastructure, Cargo Tankers Reportedly Struck by Iranian Missiles & Drones 

Following reports from the Following a report from the UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster that Emirati air defenses are responding to a missile threat, we have seen reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red

https://x.com/NCEMAUAE/status/2051337214282596616?s=20

Bloomberg adds that the UAE has detected four missiles coming from Iran

• *UAE DETECTS FOUR MISSILES COMING FROM IRAN: DEFENSE MINISTRY

Air defense systems are currently responding to a missile threat. Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates. pic.twitter.com/DJFh6q8xi1

— NCEMA UAE (@NCEMAUAE) May 4, 2026

At the same time, the UK MTO Operations Center said that it has received reports multiple "Suspicious activities"

• *UKMTO RECEIVES REPORT OF INCIDENT 36NM NORTH OF DUBAI

• *UK NAVY: CARGO VESSEL REPORTED A FIRE IN THE ENGINE ROOM

• *UK NAVY: CAUSE OF THE FIRE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME

Perhaps worst of all, it appears attacks have recommenced on UAE energy infrastructure (specifically, Fujairah - the end point of the pipeline the UAE uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz).

• *UAE'S FUJAIRAH SAYS AERIAL ATTACK FROM IRAN

• *FUJAIRAH: IRAN DRONE ATTACK CAUSES FIRE AT OIL INDUSTRIAL ZONE

• Operations at the strategic facility have been affected. 

In the fog of war, it is increasingly unclear what is real and what is fiction, but while it is certainly possible that Iran has decided to re-escalate against the UAE, which is now as much of a nemesis as Iran, there is the possibility that the UAE is creating conditions for a false flag, hoping to drag the US into what would now be a "defensive" operation and thus not needing Congressional clearance.

In any case, the market is not happy, with stocks turning red...

... and oil pushing back to session highs.

And bonds are being dumped with 30Y yield back above 5.01% for the first time since July...

Bear in mind what Goldman warned on Friday: 

It feels as though there are a few lines in the sand starting to develop in markets:

• 120 USD in Crude (note COA roll likely dampens vol a bit today compared to earlier in the week),

• 4.5% and 5.0% in UST 10/30yrs,

• 160 in USDJPY

we would be wary of all of these and the proximity to them all adds further fuel to any future resolution risk rally/Dollar sell-off.

Patience is key as always.

Some of those signals have been hit and others are looming.

* * * 

Bessent: Will Fire if Fired Upon

Coinciding with 'Day 1' of Trump's Project Freedom to "guide" stranded vessels out of the heavily contested Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued fresh remarks and warnings on Monday.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent says US is opening up the strait, we have absolute control of the strait. A quick summary of his main points via Newsquawk:

• Iranians do not have control of the strait.
• Project freedom was not done in coordination with Iran.
• If Iranians want to escalate, we are willing to do so.
• US is firing only when fired upon.
• It is a good time for US partners to step up and pressure Iran.

He further gave a very broad and fuzzy timeline, stating this 'aberration' will be over in 'weeks or months'. At this point, admin officials are careful to avoid calling it a 'war' - given it has been 60 days since the start, and there's the lingering question of Congressional authorization and war powers. Latest out of Hormuz:

Iranian IRGC attack hit a South Korean-linked ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Yonhap

Pentagon: Two US-Flagged Ships Exit Hormuz

On Monday morning, US Central Command announced that within 12 hours after President Trump unveiled 'Project Freedom', a pair of US-flagged merchant ships made it out of the Strait of Hormuz. The wording of the statement makes it sound like a US naval escort made this possible - though the degree to which this was the case remains unclear. Below is the CENTCOM statement.

U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.

This is being hailed as a the latest Pentagon success, however, the reality remains that Washington is celebrating a solution to a problem that did not exist before the launch of Operation Epic Fury. Or in other words, the US is seeking to open the strait which had never been closed prior to the Iran war. Meanwhile...

pic.twitter.com/NM0SdwNu9A

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 3, 2026 IRGC Says It Struck US Navy Ship, US Officials Deny

Iran is claiming to have attacked and struck a US Navy vessel, announcing that it stopped US warships from entering the Strait of Hormuz "with a firm and swift warning" and noting that "additional news will be announced later" - a statement by state Tasnim News Agency said. Soon after, Fars news agency said that two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask island after it ignored warnings from the IRGC to halt. Jerusalem Post also picked up on the statement, writing:

The ship reportedly turned back after being hit. The report further noted that the missiles had been launched after the US "violated security protocols for transit and navigation near Jask with the intent to pass through the Strait of Hormuz."

However, soon after Axios stated that a "senior US official denies a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles." CENTCOM soon after said that no US navy ships have been struck, adding that US forces are supporting Project Freedom and enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports. It is the latest claimed major incident soon on the heels of President Trump the night prior announcing "Project Freedom" to "guide" stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. New threats:

But as we also noted, WSJ explained that Project Freedom "is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said." So a lot of confusion remains. UAE meanwhile chimes in with some verification of a strike on a LNG tanker:

• UAE SAYS ADNOC VESSEL HIT BY TWO IRAN DONRES IN HORMUZ
• UAE CONDEMNS TARGETING OF ADNOC VESSEL BY DRONES IN HORMUZ

🚨 LIVE IN THE STRAIT: The U.S. just launched "Project Freedom" to escort neutral commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but the sanctioned tanker NOOH GAS (IMO 9034690) is currently attempting transit.

Windward Multi-Source Intelligence is tracking NOOH GAS in… pic.twitter.com/zLgIzNsgUG

— Windward (@WindwardAI) May 4, 2026

Trump had also said in his Monday Truth Social statement that he is "fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all."

Iranian Tanker Crew Swap in Pakistan

Some kind of 'good faith' swap is in the works, per Al Jazeera:

The crew members of an Iranian ship that was seized by the United States after it “failed to comply” with the US blockade on Iranian ports have been transferred to Pakistan for repatriation, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said.

“As a confidence-building measure by the United States of America, twenty-two crew members held aboard the seized Iranian container ship, ‘MV Touska’, have been evacuated to Pakistan,” the ministry said in a statement on Monday.

Pakistan's foreign ministry is facilitating their return, after a couple weeks ago the US Navy seized it and characterized the capture of the merchant ship part of the spoils of war.

CNN had reported at the time that "US Central Command (CENTCOM) says the guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance warned the Touska repeatedly over a six-hour period, during which time the container ship was steaming in the Arabian Sea toward Bandar Abbas, Iran." It was among the earliest direct actions by the US Navy after the US declared a blockade on all Iranian ports.

Iran Warns US It Will Attack

A fresh escalatory warning and rhetoric out of Iran's military on Monday: US forces will be attacked if they enter the strait, as well as any commercial ship or oil tanker not willingly coordinating their movements with Iran ahead of time. That's according to Ali Abdollahi, the head of the Iranian military’s unified command, and as cited in Al Jazeera:

"We warn that any foreign armed forces, especially the aggressive US army, will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz," the statement said.

All of this means that what Trump touted as an act of "goodwill" has the obvious potential to become a dangerous flashpoint. Some pundits have raised the possibility of a new Gulf of Tonkin incident.

The IRGC reportedly carried out a missile strike on two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz at night.

The IRGC Navy reports that the ships turned off their transponders and were operating in the interests of the US Navy. pic.twitter.com/64Ez5bFOpR

— Dimitri Lascaris (@dimitrilascaris) May 4, 2026

And per BBC, things are already coming to a head:

The Iranian military is claiming it has prevented a US Navy destroyer from entering the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media reports that the public relations arm of the army says: "With a firm and swift warning from the Islamic Republic Navy, the entry of American and Zionist enemy destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz was prevented."

But it is hard to precisely confirm any of this, also as the Pentagon is mum and not expected to affirm any of Iran's claimed 'successes' in stopping US naval movement in regional waters. There have also been reports of Iranian vessels firing warning shots on a US ship. And according to Axios Monday morning:

A U.S. official said the rules of engagement for U.S. forces in the region have been changed and they were authorized to strike immediate threats against ships that cross the strait, like IRGC fast boats or Iranian missile positions.

Iran's 'Control Zone'

Iran has "redefined the control zone" in Strait of Hormuz, stretching from south of Mount Mobarak in Iran to south of UAE’s Fujairah, and from west of Qeshm Island in Iran to Umm al-Quwain in the UAE, according to Tasnim.

A statement from Iranian State TV gives Iran's perspective on Trump's new Project Freedom, as it insists the strait is "under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran".

via Al Jazeera

Again, all of this directly contradicts Washington's stance, and the two sides are once again headed toward escalation amid zero sum contrary positions with apparent willingness to use force. As a reminder, Trump had on Sunday described that "For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business."

Some More Regional Developments

via Al Jazeera

• Two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask in the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored warnings from the Revolutionary Guard to halt, state media quote the IRGC as saying.
• The reported attack comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission, dubbed Project Freedom, to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it is assessing a response from Washington to its latest 14-point proposal to end the war. Trump had called Tehran’s proposal “unacceptable”.
• Israel continues to bombard Lebanon, wounding five medics, and has expanded its area of control in Gaza by announcing a so-called “Orange Line”.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 06:12

Caught Off Guard: Stunned EU Leaders React To Trump's Troop Reduction In Germany

European officials have expressed dismay, disappointment, and surprise in the wake of the weekend announcement by the Trump administration that the US will be withdrawing some 5,000 troops from Germany over the coming months.

"There has been talk about withdrawing US troops from Europe for a long time. But of course, the timing of this announcement comes as a surprise," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed on the sidelines of the European Political Community meeting in Yerevan, Armenia on Monday.

Source: European Council

She then tried to find a silver lining, saying this must motivate Europe to strengthen its own role inside NATO. "I think it shows that we have to really strengthen the European pillar in NATO and we really have to do more," she said.

But she also reasoned, "American troops are not in Europe only for protecting European interests, but also American interests." Kallas also said: "I don't see into the head of President Trump, so he has to explain it himself."

Similarly, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reacted by saying European leaders have “gotten the message” from Trump following the announcement.

Rutte, who is also in Armenia, acknowledged "disappointment from the US side" and said, "European leaders have gotten the message. They heard the message loud and clear." He followed with: "Europeans are stepping up, a bigger role for Europe and a stronger NATO."

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre when asked about the troop reduction, described "I wouldn't exaggerate that because I think we are expecting that Europe is taking more charge of its own security."

"I do not see those figures as dramatic, but I think they should be handled in a harmonious way inside the framework of NATO," he told reporters in Yerevan.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said officials at the 32-member alliance currently "are working with the US to understand the details of their decision on force posture in Germany."

Over several years, and stretching back decades, the US has maintained the most number of troops on the European continent in Germany - currently estimated at over 36,000 active duty personnel. So the 5,000 - while significant - is still somewhat of a symbolic move and number.

The large US presence hearkens back to the post WWII division of Germany and post-war order, and is also a legacy of the Cold War. Ironically at this very moment European leaders have hyped a 'new Cold War' with Russia, as the Ukraine war continues raging.

"The officials characterized the move as a signal of President Trump's discontent with the level of assistance that European allies have offered in the U.S.-Iran war," CBS wrote on the reduction decision.

The significance of the planned move also lies in the fact that America's German bases serve as headquarters of US European Command and Africa Command - with the historic Ramstein Air Base being the key hub.

The announcement via US reporting comes just a day after Trump again lambasted German Chancellor Friedrich Merz:

"The Chancellor of Germany should spend more time on ending the war with Russia/Ukraine (Where he has been totally ineffective!), and fixing his broken Country, especially Immigration and Energy, and less time on interfering with those that are getting rid of the Iran Nuclear threat, thereby making the World, including Germany, a safer place!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Merz had in a rare moment torched US foreign policy and the Trump administration's Iran war gambit in Monday remarks given at a local event in Germany. Included in that very head-on critique of Operation Epic Fury came in the following: "An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards. And so I hope that this ends as quickly as possible."

Merz had also claimed, "If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told ​him even more emphatically." ​

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 05:45

Germany's Silent Shift: From Entrepreneurs To State Dependence

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany affords itself a state bureaucracy that functions like an artificial labor market placed upstream of the private sector. The flight of hundreds of thousands into the arms of the state corresponds with the shrinking number of self-employed in the country. And policymakers are actively promoting this trend.

Let us begin with a piece of good news: according to a Bertelsmann survey, around 40 percent of Germans aged 15 to 25 can imagine starting a business as their personal life path. That is a surprisingly high figure in a country where young people not infrequently cite, half-jokingly and half-seriously, Hartz IV or the public sector as career goals.

Let us note: the embers of entrepreneurship in Germany are still glowing; economic autonomy and sovereignty still rank highly among the younger generation. However, it is questionable whether this will suffice to ignite, one day, a true founding boom in a country of climate transformation, deeply rooted faith in the state, and an expansive public sector—a boom that could force a turnaround and help erase the long-accumulated sins of climate socialists.

But we digress. Romantic youthful ideals carry little weight in the leadership circles of the Berlin Republic. There, the ideal of free enterprise collides with the cultural-political malaise of statism—one of many politically induced fault lines of our time. Entrepreneurial action, the free decision over the allocation of capital, inevitably carries conflict potential in a climate of manically enforced eco-transformation.

In attempting to transform the existing economic order into a system of state-directed energy production and centrally steered industrial output, policymakers are pushing a growing number of mid-sized enterprises either into insolvency or straight abroad. No one should be surprised by the country’s economic depression: there is a price to be paid for handing over the economic crown jewels—such as nuclear power or automobile manufacturing—to ideological zealots.

It is hardly surprising that the fury of the socialist “firewall cartel” is also directed at entrepreneurs, who serve as one of the silent barriers against the barbarism of socialism. In Germany, it is all too easy for politicians to distract from their own failures with envy debates, resentment, and instruments such as inheritance or wealth taxes. If you want to understand how this script works, recall the embarrassing entrepreneur-bashing by the labor minister and her finance minister just a few weeks ago. This is not an entrepreneur-friendly climate—neither fiscally nor socially.

One should therefore not be surprised: economic decline is inevitable, and it is increasingly visible in the compressed real incomes of citizens. They are grappling with a distorted labor market, rising inflation, and ongoing poverty migration—a toxic brew for a society that has, in large part, lapsed into an apathetic and strangely muted “degrowth mode.”

As mentioned: why still have entrepreneurs if, in the end, the state—with unlimited credit and the iron hand of the supreme regulator—directs economic activity? Economist Lars Feld estimated total subsidies last year at €321 billion, corresponding to seven percent of the country’s entire economic output. Put more bluntly: a Mount Everest of corruption money, actively tracked down by dubious subsidy entrepreneurs who, in doing so, help construct the redistribution machinery of the green transformation. A devilish system that casts anyone enriching themselves from taxpayers’ money in an extremely unfavorable ethical light.

Unsurprisingly, the number of self-employed in Germany has been declining since the onset of green transformation policies. While there were still 4.1 million self-employed in 2000, last year only 3.6 million freelancers, merchants, traders, and other independent workers earned their living at their own risk in the free market.

With the retreat of entrepreneurship, the country’s innovative power is also waning. Disruptive ideas now find venture capital elsewhere. At the same time, the public sector absorbs a significant share of those exiting the private economy amid the economic downturn.

Since the turn of the millennium, the number of public-sector employees has risen from 4.5 to 5.5 million—an increase of over 20 percent, despite the digital revolution, which should have made it possible to automate repetitive administrative tasks. Let us be perfectly clear: the state alone created 205,000 new public-sector jobs just last year. This is not meant as blanket criticism, but bureaucracy generates no economic value—nothing conceived by regulators and documentation clerks has ever survived in the market.

Bureaucratic obstacles, new levies, grotesque regulations—spewed out mechanically by an over-bureaucratized state apparatus—the overlapping layers of national and European administration drain scarce resources from the productive sectors of society, thereby fragmenting overall economic productivity. A vicious cycle that can only be broken by radical state reform, including cutting back bureaucracy by at least half of its disastrous output.

As if to prove that Germany has gone off the rails politically and culturally, employment in the NGO sector has grown from 2 million at the turn of the millennium to 3.5 million today. A particularly tragic development, as the productive middle class is often forced, through fiscal mechanisms, to finance its own parasitic antagonists. The peak was surely the ongoing spectacle of climate activists gluing themselves to roads, along with the hysterical Fridays for Future movement, whose manic-neurotic convulsions have left citizens—sometimes amused, sometimes annoyed, but always hoping for a return of conservative reason—speechless.

3.5 million people, most of whom are likely parked in unproductive extractive activities, sustain their economic existence by channeling the hard-earned money of employees and entrepreneurs into their own useless organizations. It is the very opposite—the absolute opposite—of a market-based society, at whose center should stand the innovative entrepreneur as the engine of progress and social stability, guided by a thymotic ethic.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 05:00

EU Going To War With VPNs In Bid To "Save The Children"

Western European governments and EU bureaucrats are advancing tighter regulations on VPNs as part of a broader push for "online age verification" and their ‘Chat Control’ agenda.  Privacy advocates and digital rights groups warn that Europe is drifting towards a surveillance and censorship regime similar to internet restrictions and firewalls used by Russia and China.

Last week European Commission Executive Vice-President Henna Virkkunen suggested that Brussels may need to address the use of VPNs to bypass the EU’s upcoming age-verification systems.  Speaking during a press conference on the EU’s new digital age-verification app, Virkkunen acknowledged that users could circumvent the system with VPNs and stated that preventing such circumvention would be among the ‘next steps’ policymakers need to examine.

🚨EU plans VPN crackdown: New age ID system “cannot be bypassed” via VPNs.

Couldn’t stop illegal migration, but suddenly goes full North Korea on controlling what Europeans read online. pic.twitter.com/Kn8OnygnWW

— Don Keith (@RealDonKeith) May 2, 2026

Her statements were delivered only two weeks after she shared a stage with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who called for a crackdown on web media companies to "protect children" from dangerous content.  The first stage of their agenda is a government created universal age verification app which web companies will be required to integrate.  Von der Leyen asserts that the new restrictions are designed to "defend children's rights" (how does restricting access protect rights?).

The Orwellian language of the EU is not coincidental.  "Child vulnerability" is a carefully chosen vehicle to manipulate public approval, opening the door to incremental government management of online content and discourse. 

Age verification sounds like a common sense reform in order to prevent children from accessing adult content, gambling sites, age limited products, etc.  Some states in the US require pornographic sites to use age verification, but not a government developed app.  However, their real target is social media.

The Commission has regularly expressed their intent to gain more regulatory control of platforms like X.  Formerly Twitter, Elon Musk's acquisition of the social media site triggered a sea change in online discourse, removing years of left wing dominance in Big Tech and allowing conservatives and centrists to have a greater voice.  Immediately after Musk bought Twitter, a firestorm began in Europe as leftist politicians sought to silence the platform. 

Their reasoning?  Any platform that allows conservative, nationalist and patriot views to be heard is, by default, dangerous and must be censored.  In particular, the European elites fear a generational break from the progressive movement, the first in many decades.  

This is why the leftist controlled Australian government established strict age verification laws last year - They categorize X as restricted, but not Bluesky, an extreme left-wing activist platform which enjoys more open access.  After a torrent of criticism, Bluesky enforced it's own age restrictions, but was not required to by the Australian government. 

Moderating media access is typically the realm of parents, not governments.  Furthermore, pressing companies to take more responsibility for age restrictions is one thing, but demanding everyone use an intrusive government created app is another.  

The plan is transparent; liberal governments intend to use age restrictions as an excuse to limit more conservative leaning content while giving leftist content free rein.  The crackdown on VPNs is clearly the second stage.  VPNs allow users to access websites without using their primary IP address which links them to their home address.  They can also be used to circumvent websites that are restricted in certain countries by using an IP from outside that country.   

In other words, VPNs allow for a moderate level of anonymity.  This is something most governments have been seeking to eliminate for years.  One state in the US (Utah) is also trying to target VPN companies for liability. 

These measures have elicited strong criticism from the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), cybersecurity experts, and VPN providers, who argue that the law is technically unenforceable and risks criminalizing ordinary privacy-conscious users. 

Meanwhile, in France, officials have also signaled that VPN restrictions could eventually follow the country’s planned social media ban for children under 15. French Digital Affairs Minister Anne Le Hénanff stated earlier this year that VPNs are ‘next on my list’ in efforts to prevent minors from bypassing online restrictions. 

It should be noted that the majority of European efforts to control social media access occurred in the wake of burgeoning conservative and nationalist movements successfully spreading online and overshadowing woke activism.  These movements commonly use online discourse to dismantle progressive talking points and propaganda and they are highly effective.  The political left has decided that if they can't win the debate fair and square, they will simply censor the debate so that no one can see how wrong they are. 

They will start with children and teens in the name of protecting kids from dangerous content, then expand their bureaucratic foothold into every corner of the web.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 04:15

EU Crime Report: Spanish Rape Reports Surge 322% Over Last Decade, EU Sees 150% Increase

Via Remix News,

New data released by Eurostat on Wednesday reveals a staggering rise in reported sexual crimes across the European Union, with Spain showing an increase far beyond the continental average.

Spain has seen one of the most significant shifts in reporting, according to Spain’s La Razon outlet. In 2024, the country registered “5,222 violations” compared to only “1,239 in 2014.” This represents a “322 percent increase,” a figure that sits “well above the 150 percent average in the EU.”

What Eurostat does not provide is data on who is committing these crimes. However, other sources have explored this issue.

As Remix News reported last year, a CEU-CEFAS Demographic Observatory report titled “Demography of Crime in Spain” showed that foreigners, who make up 31 percent of Spain’s prison population and commit per capita 500 percent more rapes and 414 percent more murders than Spanish citizens.

The highest rates are seen among Arabs and Latinos, with many of them hailing from countries in South America known for their extremely high crime rates.

While the murder numbers are stable in Spain at 300 per year, there has been explosive growth in attempted murders. Over the course of just four years, between 2019 and 2023, attempted murder cases nearly doubled, going from 836 to 1,507.

In just five years, penetrative rape cases also soared 143 percent, going from 2,143 in 2019 to 5,206 in 2024.

As Remix News has reported on in the past, in many Spanish states, the crime statistics show massive overrepresentation of foreigners in serious crimes like sexual assault, including in the Basque region.

In cases of robbery with violence, foreigners are 440 percent more likely to commit such a crime. Many such cases have made headlines in the Spanish media.

The study heads indicated that Spain’s aging population should have led to a decrease in crime rates, but the influx of migrants, amounting to 3.8 million per decade, has led to an “imported crime” problem.

The report confirmed a consistent pattern that violent crime is predominantly committed by young men. Specifically concerning nationality, the study indicates that foreigners have much higher crime rates than Spaniards, particularly for the most serious offenses against persons, such as homicide, rape, and robbery. This overrepresentation is noted to be especially pronounced among individuals of African and Latin American origin.

🇪🇸‼️ In Barcelona, North African migrants were caught on camera trying to bundle an 11-year-old girl into a car while she was on the way to the shop opposite her home.

Her mother speaks out, "She burst into the house in tears, trembling. That night, she couldn't sleep or eat. It… pic.twitter.com/9LL7lxHQUL

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 27, 2025

Data on the prison population supports this finding: in 2024, 31 percent of the prison population was foreign-born (excluding naturalized or second-generation immigrants). This proportion is more than double their share of the general population in the 20-69 age group, with North Africans and Latin Americans showing significant overrepresentation.

Rape and sexual crimes jump across Europe

According to the report, police forces across EU member states registered “more than 250,000 crimes of sexual violence” in 2024. Of these recorded offenses, “almost 100,000 (38 percent) were rapes,” marking a “150 percent more than a decade ago” increase.

The Eurostat statistical office highlighted a “sustained upward trend over the last ten years, with an average growth of almost 10 percent annually in sexual violence and 7 percent in rape”. In total, cases of sexual violence nearly doubled in the EU, seeing “124,350 more cases than in 2014,” while the number of rapes added “nearly 59,000 additional crimes in that period.”

However, Eurostat suggests these numbers may not reflect a simple increase in crime alone. The office noted that the surge “could be linked to greater social awareness, which would have impacted reporting rates.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 03:30

Big Shake-Up: Putin Fires Head Of Aerospace Forces After Devastating Ukrainian Drone Attacks

There are reports out of Russia of another high level firing within the defense ministry. This time, President Putin has reportedly sacked the head of Russia's Aerospace Forces, which is the armed services branch responsible for the country's air defenses.

Moscow-based news outlet RBC reports that General Viktor Afzalov has been replaced by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. Afzalov had first been appointed to the command post in 2023.

Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

However, the Kremlin did not immediately comment on or confirm the shake-up, but it comes amid growing anger among the Russian populace and among leadership following a series of major Ukrainian drone attacks.

For example, the major Black Sea hub of the Tuapse Oil Refinery has been struck four times in the last several weeks, creating a local environmental disaster which has also seen days of large fires.

The recent series of highly destructive Ukrainian drone attacks has even reached faraway Perm, near the Ural mountains, where an oil complex there was reported struck.

These latest drone waves have not been stopped by Russian anti-air defenses, and Ukraine's cheap but highly capable drone attacks have appeared to easily thwart any countermeasures.

As for the new head of the Aerospace Forces, he takes command amid a high pressure situation. If he can't stop the ongoing drone onslaught, then he too could face quick removal:

Alexander Chaiko was born in 1971 in the Moscow region. He graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School. According to the Ministry of Defense website, he served in positions ranging from reconnaissance platoon commander to commander of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District. In 2001, he graduated from the Frunze Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces. In 2012, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff.

He held the positions of deputy commander of the combined arms army of the Central Military District, commander of the combined arms army of the Western Military District, chief of staff – first deputy, and commander of the troops of the Eastern Military District. In 2019, he was appointed deputy chief of the General Staff.

Chaiko has already been sanctioned by the European Union, as he's stood accused serving as a lead commander during the Russian occupation of Bucha - after which Moscow was accused of indiscriminate killings of civilians, which the Kremlin denies.

RBK reported that Colonel-General Aleksandr Chaiko (left) was appointed commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov (right).

Chaiko is a former Ground Forces officer who began the 2022 invasion as commander of the Eastern Military… pic.twitter.com/3FOUfTI4KA

— John Hardie (@JohnH105) May 4, 2026

Meanwhile, last week Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced "a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia's war."

Despite Ukrainian forces being slowly rolled back on the battlefield in the east, drone warfare remains about the only leverage that Kiev has at this point.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Inflation Scapegoat: Why Hormuz Is A Convenient Cover Story

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Over the weekend, economist Gerrit Heinemann warned in Bild of a drastic increase in food prices in Germany. The scholar from Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences focused his analysis on the massive rise in fertilizer prices. A significant share of these—estimated at roughly one third of global production—is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the dual blockage of the strait, this sector too has entered a state of global scarcity, forcing farmers worldwide to adjust prices, which ultimately feeds through to consumer prices.

Heinemann concludes that Germany’s food price index could rise by as much as ten percent this year. In Berlin, a familiar narrative has already taken hold, and there is broad agreement: the Hormuz crisis alone is responsible for the disaster. Yet core inflation had already reached around 2.7 percent year-on-year in March. Price increases across the entire spectrum of goods—especially energy and housing, which has become scarce due to migration—have accompanied Germany’s economic decline for quite some time. Only the dramatic slump in private investment and general consumer restraint have slightly dampened price pressures in recent years.

What stands out in this development is the steady upward revision of inflation forecasts. In March, there was consensus between the Economics Ministry and leading research institutes that inflation would come in at around three percent this year. By early April, after one month of the Iran crisis, economists at the International Monetary Fund were projecting price increases of five to six percent.

Now comes the ten-percent hammer in food prices. One could also put it this way: the culprit for rising prices in Germany has been found. Media and government point at every opportunity to Washington, where the supposed architect of the disaster allegedly sits: Donald Trump. But does this thesis hold?

Simultaneous with the abrupt rise in inflation forecasts are the recurring downward revisions of Germany’s economic growth rates. After more than two decades of eco-socialist restructuring, loose monetary policy, and now rapidly expanding public debt, Germany’s economy can be described simply: it is retreating in a dramatic process of contraction, while prices will continue to rise amid a crisis of productivity and investment. Incidentally, food prices rose by more than 40 percent between 2019 and 2025 as financial markets and the broader economy were flooded with cheap credit during the lockdown period, as documented by the Federal Statistical Office.

Hormuz is a cheap diversion from the disastrous policies that the firewall party cartel has been pursuing for some time in order to build a new green socialism. We are witnessing a radical paradigm shift not seen since the end of the Second World War. It is common knowledge that cheap energy, technological openness, a functioning market economy, and stable money were the factors that once underpinned Germany’s economic success.

It is now proving costly to be at odds with its most important energy and raw materials supplier, Russia, and to have effectively declared perpetual conflict with Moscow. History teaches us that ideological fervor always goes hand in hand with fanaticism. Blowing up one’s own nuclear capacity was, quite literally, a reckless gamble—an act of blind ideological infantilism rarely seen anywhere in the world in our era.

Together with Brussels, Berlin is pursuing a scorched-earth policy when it comes to returning to a market-based energy framework and sound regulatory principles. No matter how hard the current energy crisis hits, German policymakers remain committed to their green-socialist ideology. By clinging rigidly to CO₂ rent-seeking, grotesque climate regulation, and an energy policy run amok, the country has maneuvered itself into a geopolitical straitjacket. Germany’s economy now has its back against the wall. And Berlin has found its solution: the German middle class will be bled dry to finance the capital’s debt excesses and conceal the scale of the disaster.

What is dramatically worsening the situation in recent weeks is a series of attacks worldwide on refinery infrastructure. Whether in the United States, Australia, or war-affected Russia, the problems are intensifying. For Germany, an additional blow is that Russia will halt the transit of Kazakh oil to the Schwedt refinery via the Druzhba pipeline.

It is high time to develop domestic energy resources—fracking gas and drilling in the North and Baltic Seas—to signal to markets and consumers that rational policymaking has returned. Only then could Germany credibly declare the end of its post-Enlightenment delusion. A Europe-wide initiative to finance and build nuclear capacity would be urgently required. Yet Brussels and Berlin have decided otherwise: if necessary, access to energy will be rationed. The expansion of eco-socialism is to continue at all costs—energy thus becomes an absolute lever of political power over citizens, who are suffering from the ideological rigidity and intellectual failure of European policymakers to reduce energy dependence through market mechanisms and negotiated solutions.

The inflation problem is self-inflicted. Only a completely distorted and ideologically colored media narrative surrounding the Iran crisis and the consequences of centralized energy policy has so far prevented the public from correctly perceiving the economic disaster. The year 2026 will likely be the year in which personal escapism carries severe monetary consequences.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 02:00

Horrifying "Rape Festival" Sparks Worldwide Outrage

Videos circulating on social media out of Nigeria have ignited shock and horror after appearing to show groups of men chasing, stripping and sexually assaulting women in broad daylight during a traditional “fertility" festival in the country’s southern Delta State, according to news.com.au.

The incidents unfolded on March 19 during the Alue-Do festival in Ozoro, a triennial rite in the Uruamudhu community of the Ozoro Kingdom. Intended to invoke blessings for married women struggling with conception, the event involves processions to a community shrine. Local customs reportedly advise single women to remain indoors. However, footage depicted young women fleeing through crowded streets, pursued by mobs who tore at their clothing, groped them and subjected them to public humiliation while bystanders filmed and, in some cases, appeared to cheer.

The graphic clips, which spread rapidly on platforms including X, Instagram and Facebook, have fueled national outrage, trending hashtags such as #endsexualviolence.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Every Woman is Worthy® (@everywomanisworthy)

Delta State police have responded with arrests. Authorities confirmed that at least 15 people, including a community leader and several young men identified in the videos, are in custody, the BBC reports. Police spokesperson Bright Edafe described the scenes as “alarming, disgusting and embarrassing,” adding that suspects have been transferred to the State Criminal Investigation Department for prosecution. Investigations continue, though officials noted that no formal complaints of rape have been filed to date. Some women reportedly required hospitalization.

One of the alleged victims told police she was attacked within minutes of arriving at the event to the "rape festival."

“Immediately I came down, they started shouting ‘hold her, hold her, that’s a woman’, and they swooped on me like bees,” the alleged victim said, according to the Daily Express. “A large crowd started pulling my clothes until they stripped me naked. They were pulling my breasts and touching my whole body … I was shouting for help.”

Women’s rights activists claim this isn’t the first event where mass rape has occured.

“This is not just about what happened in those videos,” said Rita Aiki, an activist with the Women’s Rights Advancement and Protection Alternative, the New York Post reported. “It’s about the conditions that make it possible for this kind of violence to happen in public, with so many people watching and no one stepping in.”

“It tells you something about what is being normalized in a given society,” she added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 23:00

Meta Raising $13 Billion SPV For Texas Data Center As Its CDS Hits Record

Back in January, just days before the latest private crash swept across markets, we reminded readers that one of the biggest abusers of private credit SPVs was none other than Meta which as of 2025 was "already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt." We then showed a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with private credit ground zero - Blue Owl - titled "Project Beignet", which was created for Meta's Hyperion data center, "none of this touches META's balance sheet." We said to expect "hundreds of billions of these in 2026."

As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl "Project Beignet" for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META's balance sheet.

Expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026 https://t.co/794EgSiiZ9 pic.twitter.com/7hMyVW6Lno

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2026

Little did we know that the first big (ab)user of SPVs in 2026 would be none other than Meta again. 

According to Bloomberg, the company formerly known as Facebook, is working on another financing package wrapped as a special purpose vehicle, this time for a data center in El Paso, that could total over $13 billion -  or roughly half of the Beignet - underscoring Big Tech’s growing reliance on debt to bankroll the infrastructure behind the AI boom, which as we noted earlier is now expected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2027 capex spending.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are leading the process this time, according to Bloomberg sources. And just like Project Beignet, a large majority of the financing is expected to be in the form of debt, with the rest equity.

And indeed, Bloomberg confirms that Meta’s effort is similar to an almost $30 billion financing package it completed last year for a data center site in rural Louisiana, and which included $27 billion in debt which Meta raised through a special purpose entity known as Beignet Investor, which we discussed in January, and which is named after the popular Louisiana pastry.  

The food theme has persisted, and this latest transaction, dubbed Sopaipilla, is named after a fried pastry popular in the Southwestern parts of the country.

But why go the extra mile to come up with another complicated scheme instead of getting secured financing? Simple: there is little direct demand for the paper, and second, Meta is spending more than $10 billion on the data center in El Paso, which is a material jump from prior projections. By the time the data center is completed, the final bill will be even greater. 

The gigawatt-sized data center is expected to come online in 2028, and will support more than 300 on-site jobs once completed. Meta has also said its construction needs will grow given the increased investment, and now anticipates 4,000 temporary workers to be on site during the peak construction period.

When Meta sealed Beignet’s deal, where Blue Owl was the co-investor at the Project Beignet Holdings level, the company turned to PIMCO as its anchor lender on the transaction. With Sopaipilla, there is nobody to anchor the deal; instead Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan - who have zero interest in holding on to the debt - will quietly try to syndicate the debt to other capital markets investors. 

Since the Beignet transaction, data center financing has exploded across investment-grade and junk-bond markets, as we first reported last October in "AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market." In the high-yield space, more than $20 billion of bonds and loans have launched in the past three weeks alone, while Meta itself raised $25 billion in bonds last week. Still, investors have shown some signs of fatigue amid the deluge, and nowhere more so than in Meta's own Credit Default Swaps which are trading at record wides.

Beside concerns about the company's debt, there are even bigger concerns over Meta’s outlook, as investors worry that the company’s massive investments in AI won’t pay off... just like they failed to do when the company which changed its name to Meta spent tens of billions on the Metaverse, with abysmal returns. The company’s shares are down about 7.5% this year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 22:35

Trump's "Project Vault" Plans To Initially Buy Rare Earths From China

As we reported in February, the US Export-Import Bank’s proposed rare earth stockpiling initiative would initially source critical minerals from anywhere in the world - including China, an official involved in the project revealed to Bloomberg. The $12 billion Project Vault would later shift to a replenishment model that prioritizes domestic production first, followed by allied nations and other sources as a last resort, executives including Ex-Im Chief Banking Officer Brian Greeley said lastt week, unveiling some of the first details publicly announced on the project.

Greeley spoke alongside representatives of Glencore Plc. and Hartree Partners LP, which will be among trading houses procuring materials for Vault. The project aims to build an immediate buffer against critical mineral supply shocks while using future purchases to send a stronger demand signal to US and friendly-nation producers. 

Vault — which combines about $2 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Ex-Im loan — is President Trump’s latest effort to build an alternative supply chain for the materials, which are key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and other low-carbon technologies. China is the dominant supplier of critical minerals worldwide.

The recent panel was the most robust public discussion of Vault since Ex-Im revealed the program in February. For nearly three months, metals investors, traders and consumers have sought details as the government worked behind the scenes to flesh out the project, according to Bloomberg. 

Attendees packed a conference room at a hotel in Washington, DC, to get details on Vault’s sourcing hierarchy and payment structure. After brief introductory remarks, the panel unexpectedly opened up the floor to an almost hour-long question-and-answer session.

The program’s so-called waterfall would give preference to domestic suppliers even when their material comes at a premium to allied alternatives, with participating manufacturers expected to accept that trade-off as part of joining the program, panelists said. The initial stockpile fill, however, would be driven chiefly by availability, reflecting the reality that some of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration are produced only in limited geographies and, in some cases, remain heavily influenced by China.

Vault is being structured as a demand-driven vehicle rather than a government-directed stockpile, the panelists revealed. Manufacturers would determine which minerals are stored, with the program then working with traders to secure supply. It’s designed to give US firms more leverage in opaque and fragmented markets where individual buyers often struggle to source smaller volumes efficiently or at transparent prices.

On storage, Greeley said the project will begin by relying on warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners and procurement providers. Over time, Vault is expected to develop its own storage network, either by building facilities or leasing them. A mature system could combine its own sites with third-party warehouses.

Panelists said the use of specialist traders would also be tailored to individual metals. Rather than sending orders into an open bidding process, Vault is expected to match procurement to firms with expertise in specific markets, allowing traders with relationships in cobalt, rare earths or other niche material sectors to handle those flows. The goal, panelists said, is to preserve pricing discipline, improve execution and avoid creating a scramble for hard-to-find materials.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 22:10

"Rare Sight": USAF C-17 Jets Land In Beijing Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

As the Strait of Hormuz takes center stage Monday morning, Iran is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to transit the critical waterway. This directly challenges President Trump's plan for the U.S. Navy to "guide" tankers and container ships through the chokepoint.

Looking beyond the ongoing Hormuz crisis, the China topic is next: Trump is still expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks. This means any U.S.-Iran escalation could leave Hormuz disrupted for even longer and will undoubtedly be a major topic at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo that the Trump-Xi summit is still "happening, as far as I know."

This leaves us searching for real-world signals, not just headlines from officials, that the two-day summit is still scheduled to happen on May 14 despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

One signal comes from an aviation observer account on X, by the name "Safari," who says two U.S. Air Force C-17 transport jets landed at Beijing Capital International Airport in recent days, "making them a rare sight" at the airport.

为特朗普访华运送先遣物资任务的美国空军两架 C-17 在 5 月 1/2 日降落北京国际机场，属于是 PEK 难得一见的客人了。 pic.twitter.com/uYMDjCD4S5

— safari (@safaricheung) May 3, 2026

Safari continued,

On May 3, two more C17 transport planes carrying advance supplies for Trump's China visit landed at Beijing Capital International Airport, bringing the total to 4 aircraft. There are already so many plane spotters here to photograph the advance transport planes; I can't even imagine what kind of spectacle it'll be around Capital Airport when Air Force One actually arrives

为特朗普访华运送先遣物资任务的美国空军两架 C-17 在 5 月 1/2 日降落北京国际机场，属于是 PEK 难得一见的客人了。 pic.twitter.com/uYMDjCD4S5

— safari (@safaricheung) May 3, 2026

Polymarket odds:

//--> Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Yes 85% · No 15%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

As of this moment, based on Bessent's comments and reports of USAF C-17s landing in Beijing, all indications so far suggest that the Trump-Xi meeting is set to happen at the midpoint of this month.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 21:20

Iran War Threatens China's 4.5 Percent Growth Target: Analysts

Authored by Jarvis Lim via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China’s already-strained economy faces mounting pressure as the Iran war threatens to choke export growth and suppress domestic demand, putting its 4.5 percent growth target at risk, experts say.

A woman takes a photo of the Lujiazui financial district across the Huangpu River on the Bund promenade in Shanghai, China, on March 5, 2026. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images

As the U.S.–Israeli war against the Iranian regime stretches past the two-month mark, President Donald Trump said in an April 29 interview with Axios that he will continue to maintain a blockade of Iran until Tehran agrees to a deal addressing concerns over its nuclear program.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly spiked to over $120 a barrel after Trump’s remarks, hitting a four-year high before dropping back to $114. It now sits at around $108 as of Sunday afternoon.

Rising oil costs have also driven up plastic prices across Southern China, squeezing profit margins and triggering panic buying throughout the supply chain at Dongguan’s Zhangmutou—the nation’s top plastics trading hub.

China is the world’s largest producer, consumer, and exporter of final plastic products, according to a 2025 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, an intergovernmental organization.

Export Squeeze 

Tsai Ming-fang, a professor of industrial economics at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said that while many argue China’s strategic oil inventories would shield it from the effects of a blockade, the turmoil in China’s plastics markets shows the conflict is already weighing on its manufacturing exports.

China is estimated to be holding the world’s largest crude stockpiles, at nearly 1.4 billion barrels as of December 2025 and growing in 2026, according to an analysis released in April by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Surging energy prices in financially unstable countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are squeezing out discretionary spending, dragging down China’s export shipments,” Tsai told The Epoch Times.

“If consumers don’t consider these Chinese goods necessities, China’s shipment volumes will naturally fall further.”

Containers at the Longtan port in Nanjing, eastern China's Jiangsu province on Jan. 14, 2026. AFP via Getty Images

Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—China’s largest trading partner—with bilateral trade reaching 6.82 trillion yuan ($999 billion) in the first 11 months of 2025.

Chinese exports to the bloc totaled 4.29 trillion yuan ($628 billion) over the same period, up 14.6 percent year on year, data from the Economic and Commercial Office of the Mission of the People’s Republic of China to ASEAN showed.

Echoing the concern, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis Research, said China’s export engine is now caught in a “double bind,” with higher shipping costs driven by Hormuz disruptions and softening end-markets across Southeast Asia.

“This is not yet a cliff edge, but the directional pressure [on China’s exports] is clearly downward, particularly in electronics, machinery, and mid-tier consumer goods,” Garcia-Herrero told The Epoch Times.

Liu Meng-chun, director of the Chung-Hua Institution of Economic Research’s mainland China division in Taipei, said war-driven inflation in advanced economies like the United States and Europe is eroding purchasing power, stifling demand for Chinese goods and compounding the country’s chronic overcapacity.

“The European Union overtook the United States as China’s second-largest export destination in 2025, but the conflict has stoked price pressures across the region, eating into the profit margins of Chinese firms,” Liu told The Epoch Times.

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy grew just 2.5 percent year on year in March, a sharp pullback from the 21.8 percent expansion recorded in January and February, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

Faltering Demand

On the consumer front, Chinese car sales—widely viewed as a barometer of domestic demand—are declining.

Passenger vehicle retail sales in China fell 15 percent year on year in March to 1.648 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

Cumulative sales in the first quarter of 2026 reached 4.226 million units, down 17.4 percent from a year prior.

“The prolonged stalemate in the Middle East crisis has driven international oil prices sharply higher ... suppressing the release of consumer potential,” the industry body said.

A receptionist sits near the Leapmotor T03 model displayed at a showroom in Hangzhou in eastern China's Zhejiang province on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. Caroline Chen/AP Photo

Garcia-Herrero noted that China’s domestic demand was already under strain before the Iran war, warning that the ongoing energy shock will only exacerbate the decline.

“Elevated oil prices are feeding directly into transport and manufacturing input costs, squeezing household purchasing power and eroding consumer confidence,” she said.

China’s consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent year-on-year in March and was down 0.3 percentage points from February, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The producer price index (PPI)—a measure of costs at the factory gate—climbed 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, reversing a 0.9 percent decline in February and marking its first rise after 41 consecutive months of contraction.

But Tsai cautioned against interpreting China’s PPI increase as a sign of economic recovery.

“The PPI rebound stems from energy cost pass-throughs driven by the conflict, rather than any genuine pickup in domestic spending,” Tsai said.

“The latest data indicates China is likely still grappling with internal ‘involution.’”

“Involution” describes a cycle in which Chinese firms compete ever more fiercely for a shrinking pool of consumers, driving down prices and profits without generating real economic growth.

As the fighting in Iran persists, the erosion of both domestic spending and export growth will inevitably deal a severe blow to China’s job market, according to Liu.

“The export sector has traditionally offered massive employment opportunities, but sluggish foreign trade is now constraining wage growth,” Liu said.

“Under these circumstances, the unemployment rate could rise further, hidden unemployment will become more pronounced, and the labor market will continue to contract.”

According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on April 21, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24, excluding students, rose to 16.9 percent in March, up from 16.1 percent in February.

Dimming Outlook  

In March, China’s State Council announced an economic growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, its lowest since the early 1990s, not including the pandemic.

Construction workers leave a building site for a new office tower in the Central Business District in Beijing on April 3, 2025. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Tsai said Beijing’s decision to lower its growth target reflects its own lack of confidence in the economy, and the protracted conflict in the Middle East has only darkened the outlook further.

“Unless China’s major trading partners—including Africa, Southeast Asia, and the EU—dramatically scale up imports, hitting Beijing’s growth target looks increasingly unlikely,” Tsai said.

“Besides, new legislation from the EU is piling further pressure on China’s economy.”

The European Commission unveiled the Industrial Accelerator Act on March 4, imposing strict screening on foreign investments exceeding 100 million euros ($117 million) in sectors that account for more than 40 percent of global capacity, such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy, and critical raw materials.

The move—widely viewed by analysts as targeting China—drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which claimed the framework was “discriminatory,” and constituted “severe investment barriers.”

Echoing Tsai’s assessment, Garcia-Herrero said hitting 4.5 percent growth remains “achievable on paper,” but the margin for error has narrowed considerably.

“Beijing retains meaningful policy tools—fiscal stimulus, targeted monetary easing, and strategic energy reserves,” Garcia-Herrero said.

“But deploying them effectively against an externally driven inflation shock is a different challenge than managing domestic cycles.”

Garcia-Herrero predicted that if the Hormuz blockade extends beyond the second quarter, a revision toward 3.8 to 4.2 percent looks “increasingly likely.”

“The 4.5 percent target now depends heavily on a conflict resolution timeline that China cannot control,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:55

New York Parole Bills Could Free Some Of The State’s Most Notorious Killers

Two parole reform bills advancing in New York are triggering intense debate, with supporters calling them long-overdue criminal justice reforms and critics warning they could allow violent offenders to leave prison early, according to the NY Post.

One proposal, known as the Elder Parole bill, would allow incarcerated individuals to request parole hearings once they reach age 55 and have served at least 15 years of their sentence. That eligibility would extend to some inmates serving life sentences, and those denied parole could reapply every two years.

The second proposal, Fair and Timely Parole, would change how parole boards evaluate inmates by placing greater focus on whether someone currently poses a risk to public safety instead of heavily weighing the original crime. Backers say the current system often ignores evidence of rehabilitation and keeps people incarcerated long after they have changed.

The NY Post writes that advocates argue older inmates are far less likely to commit new crimes and are expensive to keep in prison as they age. Release Aging People in Prison has pushed for both measures, saying elderly inmates who have taken accountability for their actions deserve a meaningful chance at release. “The evidence is clear that forcing completely rehabilitated elders to spend their final years in prison costs a fortune and delivers zero public safety benefit,” said Olivia Murphy of the organization.

Opponents, however, say the bills could have dangerous consequences. Critics point out that inmates convicted in some of the state’s most infamous cases — including David Berkowitz and Mark David Chapman, who murdered John Lennon — could potentially become eligible for release.

Raphael Mangual of the Manhattan Institute argued that rehabilitation in prison should not erase the severity of violent crimes. “It really shouldn’t matter how well somebody behaves in prison. You should have behaved before you got there,” he said.

Victims’ families have also voiced concerns, saying repeated parole hearings force them to revisit painful tragedies. Michael Pravia, whose brother Kevin was killed in 2008, criticized lawmakers backing the legislation and warned, “They will have blood on their hands.”

Mark David Chapman

Kathy Hochul has not said whether she would sign either bill if they pass. As the legislation moves forward, the fight over parole reform continues to center on two competing priorities: rehabilitation and second chances versus justice and public safety.

Supporters of the legislation maintain that the bills are being mischaracterized by opponents who are focusing on extreme examples. Yes, how dare they exaggerate about mass murder... 

'They argue that parole eligibility does not guarantee release and that every case would still go through a review process. Advocates also say New York’s prison population is aging rapidly, creating rising healthcare costs for the state while keeping behind bars people they believe no longer pose a serious threat.

Still, critics remain unconvinced and say the proposals send the wrong message to victims and their families. They argue that certain crimes are so severe that the original sentence should stand regardless of an inmate’s age or behavior in prison. With both sides digging in, the future of the bills could ultimately depend on whether lawmakers—and Kathy Hochul—view the measures as necessary reform or an unacceptable risk to public safety.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:30

Elites And Their Contempt

Authored by Reverend John F. Naugle via The Brownstone Institute,

Last week, I was unexpectedly hit with a post-lockdown trauma response.

While driving to a baseball game days before the NFL Draft came to Pittsburgh, I passed a digital highway sign instructing me to avoid nonessential travel.

Suddenly, memories of empty highways with signs instructing drivers to “Stay Safe and Stay Home” came flooding back to me.

As the week developed, it began to occur to me that the parallels were deeper than my subjective emotional response.

Road closures intensified, rendering my beloved city of Pittsburgh less and less functional.

Even sidewalks were closed. 

Entire parking garages were emptied and abandoned.

Pittsburgh’s “most visited museum,” the Kamin Science Center, has been closed to the public for weeks because it was within the footprint of the upcoming event.

For the actual days of the draft, Pittsburgh Public Schools were shuttered as if a blizzard had rendered travel impossible.

How do I walk to PNC Park?

The attempt by local officials to trigger hysteria in the populace worked, maybe too well. People traveling to Pittsburgh for the event heeded the instructions to use the special free public transit to make their way in. Parking operators, expecting a huge windfall, saw themselves lower their exorbitant prices midday. For example, the Rivers Casino quickly abandoned their plan to charge $250 per day, lowering their rate to $100 for the first day of the draft and then abandoning charging altogether for subsequent days.

Local businesses outside the official footprint of the event were told to prepare for heavy crowds, but instead experienced a weekend worse than anything they had seen since the Covid hysteria. Those who didn’t want to go to the draft were terrified to go anywhere near the city.

In summary, children were deprived of education, small business owners were drastically harmed, public spaces which exist for the common good were shuttered, and normal life ceased for those who actually live in the City of Pittsburgh. While all of this was happening, local politicians were patting themselves on the back for how well everything was pulled off, taking pride that this draft broke attendance records for the NFL and that their plans of getting people in and out of the city were effective. It was our own personal Operation Warp Speed.

I think there’s a lesson here that applies not merely to Pittsburgh politics but also to the wider dysfunction we see in elected officials throughout what used to be Western Civilization.

Our political leaders view their own constituents with a sort of boredom or indifference. In the leadup to the draft, Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania engaged in a number of public works projects designed to improve the area in preparation for the draft. 

Suddenly, our governments remembered that potholes aren’t supposed to be allowed to exist and that crime isn’t supposed to be allowed to happen. For three days, Pittsburgh had a heavily subsidized and highly functional public transit system, something that hasn’t existed the entirety of my lifetime.

Any one of these projects could have been accomplished at any time, but the actual people who live there provided insufficient motivation for our leaders. Rather, what really mattered to them was looking good in front of millionaires, soon-to-be millionaires, and the powerful elites who would gather to party the night away with Nelly, Steve Aoki, and 2 Chainz.

Road closures during the NFL Draft

Meanwhile, the elites themselves seem to view the common people with at least implicit contempt.

They desire entire blocks to be shut down for their own amusement.

The common man, including those who wait upon them, should be relegated to buses or walking so as not to encroach upon their experience. This is their party, and the city is lucky to have them there.

We live in a world where the elites view the common man as a problem to be solved and the leaders elected by the common man anxiously present themselves as lapdogs to these elites, forgetting any sense of duty or obligation to those who placed them in power.

We saw this during lockdowns, we saw this as inflation raged on, and we see it now as gas prices remain above $4.

The urgent and pressing question that faces all of us: what is the political solution in a system where elected officials conspire with elites who hold the voters themselves in contempt?

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:05

Sacked Russian Minister Flees To US Amid Corruption Probe In First Of Ukraine War

A Russian minister has become the first known high-ranking official to flee Russia and seek asylum in the United States since the Ukraine war began over four years ago, amid a fraud probe.

Denis Butsayev, a senior Russian official recently dismissed from the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry, fled to the US to avoid criminal prosecution, regional media reports say.

President Putin meets with then General Director of the Russian Environmental Operator Denis Butsayev

He was officially removed from his post as deputy minister on April 22 by an order of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Soon after, and pending possible arrest,  Butsayev left the country by traveling through neighboring Belarus.

"Butsayev's departure is the first known case of a sitting official of this rank fleeing the country," independent journalist Farida Rustamova wrote. Butsayev is "lucky to have friends who were able to warn him on time," one source told the journalist.

Prior to his appointment to the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry in 2025, Butsayev served as CEO of the Russian Ecological Operator (or, Environmental Operator), a state-backed entity with charge of the country's national waste management reforms.

Butsayev has not been formally charged, but he's a person of interest amid an ongoing probe of other senior officials for corruption. According to more details in Meduza:

In late April, several anonymous Telegram channels reported that a criminal case had been opened against Yury Valdayev, the administrative director of Russian Ecological Operator (REO) — the operator company of the garbage reform — on fraud charges. Butsayev worked at REO from April to November 2019, was subsequently appointed first deputy governor of Belgorod Region, and returned as CEO of REO in November 2020, a post he held until moving to the Natural Resources Ministry in 2025.

Criminal cases have also been opened against two other senior REO managers, Yekaterina Stepkina and Maxim Shcherbakov, Vedomosti’s sources say, and Butsayev is mentioned in the case materials as well. In what capacity he appears there, and what the cases concern, is unclear.

According to more on Butsayev, "He does not appear on U.S., Canadian, British, or EU sanctions lists, and his current whereabouts are unknown, Faridaily reported."

While nothing is currently known or confirmed as to his guilt or innocence in alleged fraud, regional opposition and anti-Moscow media tend to hail any such officials as heroes valiantly fleeing a Kremlin crackdown. However, this could also just be another standard corruption case in a region which has a long history of it.

Russia’s former Deputy Minister of Natural Resources, Denis Butsaev, has fled the country.
After his dismissal on April 22, he rushed to Minsk, then Tbilisi, and is now believed to be in the USA — the first known high-level official to escape amid a major corruption probe into… pic.twitter.com/aHnamwcbow

— Strategic News of Ua (@2_vatalive) May 2, 2026

The last couple years have seen a much broader Kremlin purge of top military ranks connected to the Ukraine war, but this situation seems to have stabilized of late. As for the war in Ukraine, it has seemed stalemated, with Russian forces reportedly making slow but steady gains; however, Ukraine's drones have been able to inflict serious damage on Russian oil refineries and export facilities, especially in recent months.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 19:40

Virtue Gone Mad: Manager Punished More Harshly Than The Shoplifter He Stopped

Authored by Theodore Dalrymple via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

Nietzsche thought that the decline of the Christian religion in Europe would inevitably lead to a social, cultural, and moral crisis. This was because a traditional morality based upon religious belief could not be upheld once the religious belief itself weakened or was abandoned.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

This was not an original thought. The poet and essayist Matthew Arnold said much the same thing in a poem, “Dover Beach,” written in the 1840s but not published until 1867, before Nietzsche:

The Sea of Faith Was once, too, at the full, and round earth’s shore Lay like the folds of a bright girdle furled. But now I only hear Its melancholy, long, withdrawing roar...

This, thought Arnold, had the consequence that life would have no transcendent meaning. His answer to this problem was human love, the only solution to moral, social, and intellectual chaos:

Ah, love, let us be true To one another! for the world, which seems To lie before us like a land of dreams, So various, so beautiful, so new, Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain; And we are here as on a darkling plain Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.

Nietzsche’s solution was different. He didn’t approve of the old morality anyway, of compassion for the poor, kindness to strangers, and so forth, which he thought was the means, or even the ploy, by which the weak and feeble lorded it over the strong and healthy, and subdued them to the great detriment of human creativity.

He suggested instead that strong men should take life into their own hands, submit to no authority, and decide for themselves what they should do, all in the pursuit of superior creativity and Dionysian enjoyment. The strong, not the meek, would inherit the earth, and the best would rise to the top and dominate. There should, and would, be a transvaluation—a reversal—of all previously held values.

Arnold and Nietzsche were right about the decline of religious belief and the moral and intellectual confusion it would bring about. But the change in moral values that came about was not to so much the transvaluation wished for by Nietzsche as a perversion of the former values, as famously pointed out by the write G.K. Chesterton, who was far more realistic than Nietzsche, not long after Nietzsche’s death:

“The modern world is not evil; in some ways the modern world is far too good. It is full of wild and wasted virtues. When a religious scheme is shattered…, it is not merely the vices that are let loose. The vices are, indeed, let loose, and they wander and do damage. But the virtues are let loose also; and the virtues wander more wildly, and the virtues do more terrible damage. The modern world is full of the old Christian virtues gone mad. The virtues have gone mad because they have been isolated from each other and are wandering alone. Thus some scientists care for truth; and their truth is pitiless. Thus some humanitarians only care for pity; and their pity (I am sorry to say) is often untruthful.”

The truth of this is borne out by a recent case in England. Sean Egan, the manager of a supermarket store in Walsall, England, one of a large chain, who had worked for the company for all his 29 years after leaving school, was dismissed because he was involved in a physical confrontation with a prolific shoplifter in his store.

He asked the shoplifter, who had at least 100 convictions, to leave the store, whereupon the shoplifter became abusive and aggressive, spitting at Egan, who then tried to restrain him.

The shoplifter alleged that Egan had assaulted him, and the store dismissed the employee of 29 years for not having followed company policy. There was a public outcry, a public demonstration outside the store, and many people vowed never to patronize it or any of its branches again.

The company, using the kind of managerial language in which it is almost impossible to tell a straightforward truth, put out a statement:

“We have very clear guidance, procedures and controls in place to protect our colleagues and customers from the risk of harm, which must be strictly followed. These include detailed procedures for handling shoplifting incidents, which are in place to protect both the colleague involved and surrounding colleagues and customers, and which seek to de-escalate and calmly control the situation. We will not ask colleagues to put themselves at risk. As a responsible employer, our focus is entirely on taking the correct action to ensure health and safety is maintained at all times.”

In this incident, we can see that both Nietzsche and G.K. Chesterton were partly right. A debased compassion for everyone, no doubt a derivative of Christianity, in the form of an abstract concern for health and safety above all other considerations, encouraged a vice (shoplifting) to flourish while an act of heroism and obedience to duty, at a level higher than that of mere following of procedure, was reprehended and punished.

Procedure is good as a guideline, and in some instances, though not very many in everyday life, is essential—for example, in the flying of an aircraft. But where is it is bowed down to and worshipped as if it were a jealous god, it leads to a brainless formalism, gross injustice, and an absurd situation in which a man who attempts to prevent shoplifting is punished much more severely than is the shoplifter.

The shoplifter was given a sentence of 42 weeks’ imprisonment, which, since 50 percent remission in England is automatic, means 21 weeks (and the government has recently all but abolished prison sentences of less than a year). Meanwhile, the 46-year-old manager of the supermarket has lost his job in the only company for which he has ever worked and will not easily find another—or would not have done so had there not been a public outcry.

As Nietzsche might have put it, there has been a transvaluation of all values.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 19:15

Hormuz Closure 'Inflicting Enormous Impact' On Asia: Japan's PM Takaichi

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is "inflicting enormous impact" on the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Monday in somewhat dramatic remarks before the press.

Takaichi's words were issued from Canberra, on the occasion of Japan having signed agreements with Australia on critical minerals, energy security, and defense cooperation amid high-level talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Albanese in turn endorsed her assessment, stating: "Today, (we are) again facing an energy shock and global instability... Our partnership helps us secure the energy we both need."

via Associated Press

Takaichi also said in reference to the Strait of Hormuz, "We affirmed that Japan and Australia will closely communicate with each other in responding with a sense of urgency."

According to more:

Australia provides approximately one-third of Japan’s energy supplies and is the country’s largest market for liquefied natural gas. Both Canberra and Tokyo have been trying to shore up energy supplies due to the Iran war.

"Like Japan, we are very concerned by disruptions to the supply of liquid fuels and refined petroleum products," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

“In a complex strategic environment, cooperation between Australia and Japan is essential to maintaining a peaceful, stable and prosperous region," Albanese additionally said. "Enhanced defense and security cooperation between Australia and Japan increases interoperability between our defense forces, ensuring Australia and Japan can work closely together to support regional peace and security."

Tokyo and Canberra finalized a $7 billion defense agreement just last month, and a central part of this involves Japan supplying Australia with 11 warships.

China has also suffered negative impact of its Iranian oil flows being blocked; however, Beijing is arguably in a better position to weather the storm when compared to the impact to US allies in the region.

One recent op-ed in The American Conservative argued that "While China is to some extent dependent on Gulf oil, so is the rest of Asia. While the United States might be insulated from some of the worst consequences of the Hormuz closure, the economies of our Asian allies are not."

Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi has told Australian reporters in Canberra that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is ’inflicting an ‘enormous impact’ on Asia Pacific.

She said both countries are coordinating to alleviate the crisis. pic.twitter.com/YudZXmifOe

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 4, 2026

It continued, "Asian economies are among the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with South Korea receiving around 70 percent and Japan receiving a whopping 95 percent of their oil from the Middle East," and observed that "The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in 2024, 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of LNG shipped through Hormuz were bound for Asia." The analysis concluded: "That is not a targeted squeeze. Instead, such a move looks to be made without much heed to Asia at all, hitting the very states Washington is supposedly positioning against Beijing."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:50