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10Y Yield Spikes Above 5.00% After Blowout Beats For US PMIs

With 'hard' economic data still somewhat muted, expectations were for a modest retracement in US PMIs from recently optimistic levels in preliminary September data.

Instead, the 'soft' survey data soared:

• Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 58.7 vs 55.8 exp (August: 56.5). 59-month high.

• Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 vs 53.7 exp (August: 53.9). 52-month high. 

The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, registering the fastest expansion since July 2021 and an acceleration of growth for a fourth successive month.

Growth was driven by the service sector, which reported the steepest rise in output for over five years, but a welcome development in September was an accompanying acceleration of manufacturing output growth to the fastest since April 2022. New order inflows also gathered pace in both sectors, with growth reaching the highest since March 2022 in the service sector and the highest since April 2022 in manufacturing. In both cases, demand was buoyed principally by the domestic market, as goods export volumes continued to fall and services exports rose only modestly.

“US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Historical comparisons suggest that the latest survey data point to annualized growth of around 5% with a 4% gain now signalled for the third quarter as a whole...

To put the growth surge in context, barring the spike in demand following the opening up of the economy after the COVID-19 lockdowns, the latest improvement in business activity is the greatest recorded since early 2015 with Williamson noting that:

"Business is clearly booming now in both manufacturing and services."

However, he adds, this growth is being accompanied by some of the most severe supply chain bottlenecks seen in the near-two-decade survey history if the pandemic is excluded, with companies also reporting increasing problems finding suitable staff.

Backlogs of work are consequently rising sharply. While this accumulation of uncompleted orders bodes well for the further expansion of output and capacity in the coming months, it also indicates that companies are developing more pricing power, and hence is a worry for the inflation outlook.

“Firms’ input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking higher thanks to the rise in oil prices seen during the month, which will add further to the upward pressure on selling prices and inflation in the coming months.”

As a result of all this, 10Y yields have spiked back above 5.00%...

...and rate-hike odds picked up for October.

That was quite a shocker!!

FOR ZEROHEDGE READERSA $10 HEDGE,
ON US.$10 off one order of $30 or more. New or returning, one per person. YOUR EMAILGET MY $10 →Signs you up for ZeroHedge Store emails. $30 minimum, once per person, can't be combined. Every order helps support ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:55

OpenAI, Anthropic To Brief UN Security Council On AI Risks

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via Cointelegraph,

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are expected to brief the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday as the body examines artificial intelligence risks and their implications for international security.

According to CNBC, the UN confirmed Altman and Amodei's participation.

Hugging Face CEO Clément Delangue and Yoshua Bengio, co-chair of the UN's Independent International Scientific Panel on AI, are also expected to take part.

Reuters reported that the Security Council meeting will examine growing concerns over AI's impact on international security.

Chinese AI companies DeepSeek and Moonshot have been invited to make statements at the meeting, according to Reuters.

DeepSeek is expected to participate, though its founder Liang Wenfeng does not plan to attend, the report said, citing a source familiar with the matter.

The Security Council first formally discussed artificial intelligence in 2023, Reuters reported, as governments began examining its security implications.

France is convening the Security Council meeting on Wednesday. Reuters reported that the discussion comes amid growing concerns about increasingly capable AI systems and the potential loss of human control.

Cointelegraph reached out to Anthropic, OpenAI and the UN spokesperson's office for confirmation and comment but had not received responses before publication.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:30

Zelensky Ready For Reciprocal Energy Ceasefire Ahead Of UN Speech

Major Russian drone attacks pummeled the Ukrainian capital overnight, resulting in two people killed and at least 23 wounded, also unleashing large-scale fires and damage, with plumes of black smoke seen hovering over the city.

Other locations came under attack, which has been a nightly phenomenon, including in southeast Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and the Black Sea port of Odesa - the latter where the captain of a cargo ship was tragically killed.

Prior drone assault on Kiev from earlier in the war, via Reuters.

Also, the country's rail system continues to be under threat, with Ukrainian Railways chief Oleksandr Pertsovsky saying the rail network in the capital area was "under fire" - for which he urged "maximum" vigilance from passengers.

Amid ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian exports and imports, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday: "The recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea are unacceptable, regardless of who is responsible."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is meanwhile readying to address to UN General Assembly in New York, with the speech set for the late afternoon session on Wednesday. He's expected to push Western and global partners to hold the line against Putin, and pledge more support - especially missiles and air defense systems - headed into winter.

Zelensky had forewarned in a Tuesday Telegram post that Russia was planning "a new massive attack" against Ukraine. According to some of the latest from New York in the context of the UNGA:

• Zelenskyy said Ukraine is ready for an “energy ceasefire” with Russia, provided Moscow stops attacks on critical infrastructure.
• Ukraine’s president also urged Trump to organize a trilateral meeting with Putin, saying the leaders should move “as quickly as possible” to end the war.
• Zelenskyy also called on Trump to engage Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying he has influence over Putin, as Kyiv braces for another winter of attacks on its energy infrastructure.

It was only on Monday that President Trump again sought to publicly pressure Zelensky to halt long-range drone strikes on Russia's refineries, in a bid to calm rising diesel prices especially while the parallel Strait of Hormuz crisis persists.

Russian jet-powered drones have bombed central Kyiv throughout today, largely targeting the neighborhood around the main railway station. The city is shrouded in smoke and the air smells heavy and toxic. At least one person has been killed and many others wounded. Fires are still… pic.twitter.com/HfFK28zeJN

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 23, 2026

In a phone call, Zelensky was pressed by Trump over the strikes as Washington wants "Russian supplies to be able to reach the global market to provide relief."

But now, after the Tuesday Trump meeting:

“We are ready for an energy ceasefire if the Russians do not strike our energy infrastructure,” he said.

According to him, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will convey Kyiv’s proposal to Moscow. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New York City on Wednesday.

Writing later on US social media platform X, Zelenskyy elaborated on the discussions, noting that the leaders discussed "how to end the war."

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelensky says Ukrainian lives matter more than energy prices, so he won't stop hitting Russian refineries just to bring diesel down.

That's what he says he told Trump after POTUS blamed Kyiv for the price spike.

He acknowledged Ukraine's strikes do move the market, but…

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 23, 2026

Recent efforts to "force" an energy ceasefire in Ukraine have fallen short, given once they are proclaimed it typically takes less than 48 hours for each side to break it. Refineries even in the Moscow area have lately come under major drone barrage, inflicting severe damage.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 09:15

Futures Drop, Yields And Oil Jump Ahead Of Iran's UN Address As Trump-Xi Summit Looms

US equity futures are down modestly, but at session lows, as oil reverses earlier losses (crude was on pace for a sixth straight day of declines, its longest losing run in a year) sending Brent back over $100 and pushing 10Y yields back to 4.99%. As of 8:30am, S&P 500 futures were 0.1% lower with Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 0.3%, and also at session lows after hitting a record on Tuesday. In premarket trading, memory and semis are lower as Mag7/software are higher. Within SPX sectors, all of the majors have pockets of strength ex-Materials which are set to lag given the sell off in metals. Rising oil prices have also weighed on European equities, which have pared opening gains and left the Stoxx 600 down 0.5%, also at session lows. In Asia, Chinese and Hong Kong shares declined, trailing regional peers including South Korean and Taiwanese benchmarks. Oil remains the wildcard for stocks and bonds, while Meta’s Muse AI agent is reshaping sector rotation. Yields are notably higher, with 2Y yields rising to a 2 year high of 4.79% as the curve flattens aggressively, as the tactical market narrative seeks more color from UN meetings (US/China; US/Iran; NATO+UKR/Russia) before deciding direction. The USD rally continues with the DXY 75bp away from YTD highs set June 24. Commodities are lower ex-Energy which is seeing a bid within fuels / natgas and Brent is outperforming WTI. Base over Precious and Ags uniformly sold. The US economic calendar includes September S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr (10:05 a.m.) and Chicago’s Goolsbee (12 p.m.)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: Microsoft received a bullish upgrade from Stifel, which writes that the software giant is “getting back on track.” Shares of Microsoft (MSFT) are up 0.9%. Meta +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Alphabet +0.1%, Tesla -0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Nvidia -0.4%

• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) climbs 8% after the restaurant operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• IonQ (IONQ) rises 11% after the quantum computing company said it developed the tech industry’s first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder that runs on a single standard off-the-shelf central processing unit.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) falls 7% after the space and defense company announced its intention to offer $350 million of convertible senior notes in a private offering.
• Worthington Enterprises (WOR) jumps 16% after the maker of aluminum propane cylinders posted fiscal first quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations, helped by acquisitions and a tariff refund.

In other corporate news, Six Flags Entertainment shares gain in premarket trading as the Wall Street Journal reports that activist hedge fund Jana Partners is urging the theme-park operator to explore a sale. China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has been surveying the number of Broadcom switches in state-controlled data centres in recent weeks, the FT reports. The Boeing engineers union recommended the company’s latest contract offer.

While stocks are drifting lower, there is little urgency to the move. A packed agenda could quickly shake futures out of their early lull. As Bloomberg notes, "Investors look ready to re-risk, after the vol-of-vol gauge touched its lowest since December 2024", however potential geopolitical hurdles, not to mention very sticky high diesel and oil prices, remain.  Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addresses the UN General Assembly Wednesday.

Geopolitics remain center stage as traders look to a resolution in the Middle East as a catalyst that could pave the way for lower inflation and a brighter growth outlook. President Donald Trump flagged progress in US talks with Iran even after threatening to annihilate the Islamic Republic. Trump said US officials had “very good” talks with Iranian envoys, with another round being planned for the near future. Iran has yet to comment on the meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia moved to restart a key pipeline.

The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 hit a fresh record high Tuesday, while financials closed at their lowest since July on fears that tools such as Meta’s Muse personal AI agent could disrupt businesses that benefit from consumer inertia. That puts Zuckerberg’s keynote scheduled for tonight firmly on investors’ radar. Profit margins are frequently higher for the owner of the end-customer relationship, as Apple has shown with the iPhone. The key question is whether Muse can shift AI economics in that direction: will companies deploying AI generate returns quickly enough to sustain the spending that is currently driving margins further up the supply chain?

“Risk sentiment in equities, but also the outlook for interest rates and inflation is going to trade a lot around expectations and movements in the oil price,” said Emma Moriarty at CG Asset Management. “Brent has fallen, but the overall level is still very high and it probably needs to go some way further.”

Elsewhere in tech, Softbank is offering record yields on what’s set to be one of the largest corporate junk bond sales ever. Meanwhile, Chinese AI model developer stocks fell after a report that the country’s regulators have opened a probe into startups DeepSeek and Moonshot AI over data security concerns. Today’s Tech Watch looks at how China’s AI trade favors global winners over local champions.

Traders are also looking to the summit between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping later this week for signs of progress on trade and other economic issues. Trump is welcoming Xi to Washington today for a visit focused more on pageantry than policy, with low expectations for breakthroughs on long-standing disputes. The highly anticipated summit will bring together a robust gathering of US corporate leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, and Elon Musk, among others, but no comparable delegation of Chinese executives.

“Neither side looks ready to fundamentally reset the trade relationship, with the threats of restricting critical mineral exports countering the US administration’s desire to turn back to tariffs,” wrote Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments.

Preliminary bilateral talks in New York on Sunday were hailed as positive, but failed to reach an agreement on extending a tariff truce expiring in November. “Investors are zeroing in on what’s going to move markets and that’s the coming peace talks and the Xi/Trump summit,” said Josh Gilbert, lead APAC analyst at Etoro. “With Trump, we know that headlines can change on a dime, so there’s a level of taking some risk off the table.”

In politics, fractures within the GOP have widened into open rifts as Trump’s popularity sinks to new polling lows, just six weeks until US midterm elections. The DoJ urged a federal judge to reject a request by CNN, MS Now and Politico for a court order reinstating White House press credentials for their journalists. 

In other assets, Apollo is limiting redemptions from a private credit fund for the third straight quarter, as its investors join the rush to pull cash from the $1.8 trillion direct lending market. High-grade data-center bonds offer some of the most compelling investment opportunities in credit, according to CVC Marathon CEO. 

SoftBank kicked off what could be one of the largest corporate junk bond sales ever, with the group aiming to raise the equivalent of more than $11 billion. Meantime, Alibaba is accelerating its data center expansion in Europe and the Middle East.

In a week where the economic data calendar is relatively sparse, S&P Global is releasing its preliminary September manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes on Wednesday. For the US, both readings are projected to remain consistent with steady growth. 

Rising oil prices also weighed on European equities, which have pared opening gains and left the Stoxx 600 down 0.5% also at session lows, despite better-than-expected PMI data against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Banks and financial services outperform, insurance and real estate fall. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Raiffeisen shares gain as much as 4.2% after a Vienna court issued a default judgment against Rasperia Trading, ordering damages of about €3.15b.
• Lakefront Biotherapeutics shares rise as much as 5.4% after analysts at RBC Capital Markets upgraded their view on the company’s ADRs, saying its potential in rare autoimmune diseases is “underappreciated by investors.”
• Renishaw shares rise as much as 4.5% after the electronic components maker reported profits slightly ahead its post-close update and said it will pay a special dividend.
• EFG International shares rise as much as 6.4% after the Swiss private bank settled a legal case and said it sees additional costs of 5 million Swiss francs.
• Arcadis falls as much as 11% in Amsterdam after WSP Global says it won’t pursue a public offer for the engineering consultancy and services firm.
• Grenergy Renovables slides as much as 8.8% as RBC lowers its price target on the stock, saying heavy asset rotation is pressuring the Spanish renewables company’s earnings.
• Ceres Power shares fall as much as 7.2% after the British fuel cell developer reported revenue for the first half-year that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Diageo hares fall as much as 1.6% after the drinkmaker announced a new chief financial officer.
• Sampo shares fall as much as 3.4% after an offering of 70m Class A shares by holder Solidium priced at a 2.8% discount to prior close.
• JD Sports shares drop as much as 2.2% after the sports retailer reported first-half results that Shore Capital said confirmed a challenging trading period.

Asian equities pared gains on caution ahead of President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated summit with China’s Xi Jinping, while Chinese tech selling tempered advances in regional chip stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring its increase to 0.2%. Tencent and Alibaba fell in Hong Kong as Chinese tech shares came under pressure following a report of a government probe into data security at large-language-model developers DeepSeek and Moonshot. The Asian guage is still on track to eke out gains for a sixth day, its longest winning streak in five weeks.  Trump and Xi will meet in Washington this week, but expectations are low for breakthroughs on long-standing feuds between the world’s biggest economies. Preliminary bilateral talks in New York on Sunday were hailed as positive, but failed to reach an agreement on extending a tariff truce expiring in November. South Korea’s Kospi Index was up 0.5% after initially surging 1.9%. Stocks also rose in Taiwan and Indonesia. Japan remains shut for a holiday, with markets set to open on Thursday.

“The focus is turning to the huge geopolitical risk event that is Xi meeting Trump in Washington – could split either way with a fresh trade truce or could see some fresh signs of friction,” Neil Wilson, a strategist at Saxo, wrote in a note. “I don’t think there is going to be some grand bargain emerging from this summit but warm words and good vibes might be sufficient given the bullishness around AI and signs of progress with the US-Iran war.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is extending gains, advanced 0.4% in fourth straight day of gains to levels not seen since late July.  The currency has shown resilience in the face of lower energy prices as Federal Reserve officials continue to stress the need for policy vigilance after last week’s US interest-rate hike. Fed Governor Michael Barr and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak later Wednesday.

US yields are up 2bps at the front-end and flat across the rest of the curve. Front-end EGB yields have been supported by a solid set of euro-area PMI data, leaving the economic “resilience” narrative intact and the ECB priced for further hikes. UK PMIs were comparably weaker but not enough to dent expectations of a BOE increase in November, which have been providing a floor under front-end yields amid this week’s decline in energy prices. 

In commodities, brent crude is flat, having reversed overnight declines, leaving it on track to snap its recent streak of losses. The firmer greenback is placing a squeeze on precious metals, with spot gold down about 1% and silver lower by 2.5%. Bitcoin sheds 0.4%. 

In rates, treasuries are narrowly mixed in early US trading, with European bonds lagging after German and French PMI gauges topped forecasts. US yields are within a basis point of Tuesday’s closing levels, the 10-year around 4.96%, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 0.5bp respectively. Treasury auction cycle continues with $70 billion of 5-year notes at 1 p.m. New York time and concludes Thursday with $44 billion 7-year; Tuesday’s $69 billion 2-year note tailed narrowly. WI 5-year yield near 4.845% is ~45bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.2bp, the tenor’s ninth consecutive tail. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple offerings so far; eight were priced Tuesday totaling $18.2 billion, with issuers paying 1bp in new issue concession on deals that were 5 times covered. US manufacturing and services PMIs are ahead Wednesday, along with a 5-year note auction.

In commodities, oil prices have swung between gains and losses as Saudi Arabia moved to restart its East-West pipeline link to the Red Sea by Saturday, while the US flagged progress in talks with Iran to end a war that has disrupted energy markets.

The US economic calendar includes September S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr (10:05 a.m.) and Chicago’s Goolsbee (12 p.m.)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Oil wavered as Brent headed for its longest losing streak in more than a year on hopes for progress in US-Iran talks and higher supplies. Iran said about half of war-hit South Pars’ gas capacity is back online, Fars reported. BBG
• Trump on Tuesday said he backed the idea of a diesel export ban as a way to lower prices that have hit record highs due to a global supply shortage. ‌But analysts and market watchers warn that such a measure would do little to ease high energy prices, and could worsen supply and economic disruptions around the globe. RTRS
• Xi Jinping arrives for a state visit today, with Trump hosting a roster of US corporate leaders but no comparable Chinese business delegation is expected, clouding deal prospects, a senior US official said. The two may find common ground on AI safety, but neither is willing to give ground in the technology race. BBG
• Chinese authorities are examining the use of Broadcom’s hardware in state-backed data centers amid a drive to boost domestic producers and reduce reliance on foreign AI infrastructure. FT
• The US and South Korea are set to unveil an agreement for Seoul to fund a multibillion-dollar gas-fired power plant in Texas, the first project under its $350bn investment deal with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter in Washington and Seoul. FT
• The cost of hiring an oil supertanker has passed $1.2mn a day for the first time on routes between the Middle East and Asia, adding to the spiralling pressure on global energy markets triggered by the war in Iran. FT
• Euro-zone private-sector activity grew at the fastest pace in more than three years as the service sector unexpectedly improved. The Composite PMI increased to 53.1 from 52 in August after both Germany and France exceeded forecasts. BBG
• The Treasury’s cash balance topped $1 trillion for the second time in a month as officials study investing excess funds in repo. BBG
• NY Fed's Perli said Fed's Reserve Management purchases are not on a pre-set course and that the central clearing of Fed repo operations would have benefits, while Perli added that the monetary policy toolkit has been working well and the Fed's reserve forecasting process is robust.
• Punchbowl, citing US lawmakers/advisers, outlined that "the electoral climate for President Donald Trump and Republican leaders have worsened dramatically" over the last few weeks.
• US Democratic Senators are introducing a bill to allow first-time homebuyers to get up to USD 50k for a house down-payment: Axios.
• Novo is open to replacing its ADRs with a direct NYSE listing to raise its profile in the US. FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the similar handover from the US, despite the recent decline in oil prices and optimism regarding diplomacy after US President Trump announced that envoys had a 'very productive' meeting with the Iranian delegation on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. However, he also threatened that they may have to blow up Pickaxe Mountain and will attack if they see activity, as well as commented that he has a big decision to make between allowing Iran to rebuild or to "annihilate" Iran. ASX 200 was rangebound with demand contained amid rate hike expectations and following weaker Flash PMI data from Australia, in which headline Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction territory. KOSPI gained after the tech-related momentum in the US, where the NDX printed an all-time high. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following today's PBoC liquidity drain and as reports that Chinese President Xi is unlikely to bring Chinese CEOs to his summit with US President Trump temper expectations for major business deals.

Top Asian News

• Hong Kong Finance Secretary Chan affirmed no intention to change HKD peg to USD, adding that Hong Kong will remain an open and free economy, while fixed income will be a very big part of Hong Kong.
• Japan's PM Takaichi said she agreed with US President Trump regarding further strengthening economic security ties and notes the desire for Japan to host an AI summit, while she is pursuing an ever close alliance with the US.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) initially started Wednesday's trading session entirely in the green but have pared slightly, now pointing to a mixed picture. Traders note the widening of London gasoil/NY Heating Oil spread as a catalyst for the pullback in equities, after US President Trump said he would back a pause to American diesel exports. European gas prices are expected to rise and, as a result, weigh on margins as costs increase.
Sectors lack a clear bias, with breadth quite narrow. Banks top the sector pile, with Financial Services and Energy rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Insurance, with Real Estate and Telecoms following closely behind.

Top European News

• OECD 2026 GDP Forecasts: US 2.2% (prev. 2.0%), China 4.5% (prev. 4.5%), EU 1.0% (prev. 0.8%), UK 1.1% (prev. 0.9%), World 2.9% (prev. 2.8%).
• Global banking executives warned against a UK windfall tax and that they will divert investment away from the UK if taxes on the sector are raised, according to FT.
• The European Commission proposed lifting 2022 rule of law protective measures against Hungary, seeking to unlock EUR 4.2 bln in suspended cohesion funding and restore access to Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe.
• The German Finance Ministry is reportedly considering a review of takeover law, with reference to "lowball" or "dumping" offers, according to Handelsblatt.
• Germany's IG Metall said they demand a 5% pay increase in the electrical sector, with regional talks to start on October 7th and warns of possible strikes from November 1st.
• The Swiss Upper House backed the 90% CET1 foreign unit backing by UBS (UBSG SW).
• Italy reportedly plans to stick with its commitment to keep deficit beneath the EU's 3% GDP ceiling this year, according to sources.

FX

• G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. USD continues to digest expectations of a more hawkish Fed, with the likes of Barkin and Collins putting forward their openness to further hikes. This is reflected in the US 2s10s spread, which has been widening for several sessions now. However, the spread is tightening a touch this morning, with focus on Trump suggesting that he would back a diesel export ban. This would no doubt put pressure on domestic prices in the US, whilst simultaneously lifting prices globally, and hence explains some of the downbeat action seen across G10 peers this morning. DXY currently trades at the upper end of a 100.54 to 100.89 range, and is now heading back to levels not seen since late July.
• The Antipodeans underperform this morning, conforming to the negative risk tone. The EUR appears to be faring a touch better vs peers, but still remains in the red. PMI metrics this morning from France and Germany continue to indicate a resilient European economy, despite the Iran war. The French PMI report highlighted that “The pick-up in the PMI price measures seen in September should, however, be watched closely, particularly as we approach the winter months, as the risk of energy price inflation spreading to other areas of the economy undoubtedly rises”. The EZ-wide report was similarly strong, with the inner report suggesting that the mixture of higher growth and rising inflation could embolden the ECB to hike once again this year.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for fixed income given the overnight energy moderation after the broadly constructive US-Iran update has given way to mixed performance but with a clear negative skew as WTI and Brent pick up alongside increasing focus on product prices/spreads after US President Trump’s comments regarding a diesel ban; see the Commodity-focused update for more detail.
• Initially, USTs got to a 106-08+ peak with gains of c. seven ticks. Since then, the benchmark has faded to near-enough unchanged over the European morning, hit by the mentioned energy upside as we digest Trump’s commentary and also unverified reports of explosions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Within Europe, the action and drivers have been the same. Bunds got to an early 121.38 peak, firmer by near 20 ticks, before falling into the red by around half of that and losing the 121.00 handle. Adding to this is a generally strong set of EZ Flash PMIs, though German & French Manufacturing were weak. Further, the series also spoke to fresh inflationary pressures; points that have added to the bearish skew in recent trade.
• Gilts opened with modest gains and then climbed to an 86.04 peak, firmer by just over 30 ticks, before fading as above and moving marginally into the red. No move to the Flash PMIs, where the Manufacturing was strong while both Composite and Services were soft. From the series, the signs of slower growth are notable and one to watch ahead, as it may temper the hawkish impulses that were evident at the last BoE meeting, making the November meeting even more of one to watch.
• Germany sells EUR 1.65bln vs Exp. 2bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bund.
• Australia sells AUD 1.0bln 4.75% October 2037 bonds: b/c 4.16x, avg. yield 5.296%.

Commodities

• Focus for energy markets are three-fold. 1) US President Trump suggesting that he would back a ban on diesel exports. 2) A seemingly constructive bilateral meeting between Trump and Zelensky. 3) US envoys meeting with the Iranian delegation, which has been called “very productive”.
• On the first point. Trump has touted that he would back a ban on diesel exports, in a bid to ease domestic prices. Treasury Sec Bessent confirmed that officials were assessing the feasibility of either a partial or full ban of exports. This will impact downstream operations, and therefore, the reaction is made evident in the heating oil spread between Europe vs US; currently at USD 36.50/mt, yesterday’s close at USD -56/mt.
• As for geopolitics, the mood music has been positive on both the Russia-Ukraine, and US-Iran front. On the former, Ukrainian President Zelensky asked Trump to organise a Ukraine-US-Russia trilateral meeting; Trump suggested that Putin is willing to meet. Separately, CNN reported that Ukraine is ready to sign a defence deal with the US this week, but it may be postponed until the US is ready. On the US-Iran front, Trump noted that his top envoys had a constructive meeting with the Iranian delegation. He added that he thinks Iran will do something good. However, some sources familiar with the talks have dampened the recent optimism. Iran has not changed its position, whilst a US source believes that the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain.
• Given the optimism surrounding geopolitics, crude benchmarks were initially lower this morning, but have since moved off worst levels to trade with incremental losses/flat. WTI is a touch lower and trades towards the upper end of a USD 88.71-90.52/bbl range, whilst Brent trades with incremental gains in a USD 94.08-96.11/bbl range.
• Spot gold is trading with losses of around a percent, and currently holds at the lower end of a USD 4,315.51-4,369.56/oz range. The yellow-metal is currently eyeing its 100-DMA (USD 4,313/oz), and further pressure could see gold hit its 50-DMA at USD 4,306.88/oz, ahead of the key USD 4,300/oz mark. Pressure today comes amidst a stronger USD and elevated front-end yields. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly in the red this morning, conforming to the downbeat risk tone. 3M LME Copper (-0.1%) currently holds towards the mid-point of a USD 14,666.28-14,862/t range.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.8mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Distillate -2.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing +2.1mln.
• Iraqi Oil Minister said oil export volumes reached 70mln bbls in August and they are currently exporting more than 3mln bpd.
• Iranian Deputy Oil Minister for Planning said that around 50% of damaged capacity at South Pars has returned to service and production has resumed, according to Fars news.
• Ukraine Energy Minister met US Energy Secretary Wright to discuss energy security and the impact of the war, emphasising the importance of diplomatic efforts to achieve an energy truce.
• Spain is reportedly mulling capping gas prices to curb power bills, according to Cinco Dias.

Central Banks

• ECB's Nagel said oil prices are not the only indicator, but have become more relevant over the past four years, while he is not so concerned by labour market developments and said monetary policy is being conducted between structural ambiguity and forward guidance. Furthermore, he does not see much uncertainty in markets about what drives the ECB's policymaking decisions, as well as noted that rates are still in neutral territory and cannot exclude needing to go into mildly restrictive territory.
• ECB's Makhlouf said second-round effects are not being seen yet.
• NBP's Kotecki said we are approaching a serious discussion about an interest rate hike, possibly in November, adding that if interest rates are increased, it will be in small steps.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US Envoy Witkoff said mediators will continue their work, and he hopes talks will be constructive and promising, while he confirmed he engaged in lengthy talks with the delegation from Iran.
• A US source attending the Iranian delegation meeting said the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain between the US and Iranian delegations, according to Al Hadath.
• Diplomatic sources suggest that "Yesterday's talks between the US and Iran did not achieve the minimum required to resume negotiations", Hayom reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said engagement with the US took place through a Qatari mediator to convey Iran’s conditions, Nour news reported.
• Iranian state media noted that Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi met with US envoy Witkoff at the UN General Assembly, with Tehran saying that the talk centered on its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian source said Qatar's PM is acting as an intermediary between Iran and the US in New York and that the substance of Iran's position is unchanged amid US dialogue, according to an Amwaj reporter.
• Diplomatic source in Tehran said a meeting between Iranian President Pezeshkian and US President Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly is not on the agenda, journalist Kais reported citing Al-Akhbar.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that Foreign Minister Araghchi met with his Austrian counterpart and the two sides discussed and exchanged views on the most important international and regional developments, as well as bilateral issues of concern to both countries. Araghchi also met with his Iraqi counterpart and reviewed the progress of cooperation between the two countries in various fields, including economic, trade, consular, and security, and emphasised the continuation of efforts to develop relations in all areas of interest to the two countries.
• Explosions were heard near Iran's Qeshm Island, which seemed to have originated from the sea, and there was no impact inside the territory of Qeshm Island, according to IRNA.
• French President Macron said France is ready to participate in an international operation of a defensive nature to protect navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to ABC News.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said ground for peace talks with Ukraine are still not in place and no concrete details of any plans of a high-level meeting on Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky asked US President Trump for a winter arms package and expects an energy ceasefire push, according to WSJ.
• Ukraine is ready to sign a landmark drone defence deal with the United States on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week, although it may be at a later date when the US is ready to sign, according to CBS News citing sources.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said that intelligence information indicates that Russia is preparing a massive attack on Ukraine.
• Russia said its forces hit Ukrainian defence and energy facilities and logistics centres, while Russian forces hit a cargo ship in the Black Sea

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump's Board of Peace will unveil a six-month USD 2.45bln recovery plan for Gaza in its meeting with members on Wednesday, Axios reported citing sources.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Greenland is critical to US national security and that the US cannot risk China or Russia establishing bases there.
• Taiwan is to maintain close contact with the US on arms sales.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Sep 18 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.1%
• 9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.65, prior 53.9
• 9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.8, prior 56.5
• 9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 55.25, prior 56

Central Banks

• 10:05 am: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Housing
• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Podcast Interview

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Paris where getting around has proved even more difficult than normal due to various road closures ahead of a visit from the Pope on Friday. Markets were a bit like my travel map yesterday. All over the place. But they ultimately ended the session much where they’d begun, with the S&P 500 (+0.00%) flat on the day and 10yr Treasury yields (+1.1bps) edging higher. Brent crude retreated by -1.09% to close below $100/bbl for the first time in over two weeks after intra-day swings driven by a flurry of headlines around the UN General Assembly in New York. A more sanguine take just about dominated in the end amid news suggesting that the gap for achieving de-escalation between the US and Iran might be narrowing.

After reaching $102/bbl early on, Brent crude moved lower with the initial trigger being a Kyodo report that Iran would re-open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US accepted demands including the lifting of its blockade on Iran. We also heard comments from the IRGC, with Iran’s state-run IRNA citing a spokesman who said that “If our national interests require us to negotiate alongside the war, we must negotiate”. And later on, Iran’s state media reported that in a meeting with Trump’s special envoy Witkoff, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Iran's conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz include the lifting of the US naval blockade, release of ⁠frozen Iranian assets and the end of war across all 'resistance' fronts. So potentially suggesting that Iran might be willing to accept a narrower deal, having previously also demanded elements such as lifting of sanctions and reparations.

Of course, we’ve seen plenty of tentatively optimistic negotiation headlines come to little in recent weeks. Indeed, oil prices gave up some of their decline yesterday as Trump used his UN speech to justify the Iran war. Oil prices did then move lower again on the news of talks between US and Iran officials, which Trump called “very productive”. And aside from the negotiation headlines, we also heard that Saudi Arabia was in the early stages of restarting its East-West pipeline and was aiming for a meaningful if partial restart of flows by Saturday.

So after a round trip, Brent crude closed -1.09% at $99.02/bbl, some way above its low of $97.43/bbl in the European morning but is another -1.2% lower this morning. Meanwhile, European natural gas futures closed -1.96% lower at €71.90/MWh.

Despite the volatile newsflow, equities ended the day little changed, with the S&P 500 down a mere -0.001%. Tech stocks saw a better performance, with the NASDAQ (+0.45%) moving up to a fresh all-time high. That included further strong gains for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index (+2.06%) posting a 6th consecutive gain. Trump himself also commented on AI in his speech at the UN, terming it “super intelligence” and rejecting attempts to control it. By contrast, financials (-1.98%) led the declines within the S&P 500, which appeared to be driven by concerns that AI could erode margins and fees.

In Europe, equities mostly saw modest gains, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.13%), CAC 40 (+0.20%), and DAX (+0.02%) rising. The exception was the UK’s FTSE 100, which fell -0.29%.

In the rates space, US Treasury yields initially followed oil prices lower, but then saw a rise by the close. So the 2yr yield (+0.8bps) inched up to a new two-year high of 4.76%, while the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.1bps) rose to 4.96%. Markets continued to price another 75bps of Fed hikes by next June, with Richmond Fed President Barkin noting the “risk that current elevated levels of inflation could affect future inflation”.

Looking forward to today, investors will be closely watching the US Treasury’s expected buyback announcement ahead of tomorrow’s 20-30yr operation. Last time there was a big market reaction as the operation size was beneath some estimates, leading to a sharp move higher in yields that day. So one to keep an eye on.

Bonds had a softer session in Europe, with yields moving higher across the continent. Yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+3.2bps) and BTPs (+1.8bps) all rose. Notably, the 10yr Franco-German spread was also back up to 104bps by the close, just shy of its 105bps peak last week which was the highest it’s been since the Euro crisis. In terms of ECB speakers, later in the evening we heard from Germany’s Nagel, who suggested the ECB may need to move from the current neutral stance “into the mild restrictive territory” if high energy prices persist.

There was also a variety of other geopolitical headlines from the UNGA, notably around Russia-Ukraine. Trump claimed that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal would be happening and Axios reported that US, European and Ukrainian officials were meeting last night to discuss proposals for de-escalation with Russia. It was also confirmed that US Secretary of State Rubio will be meeting with Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov today. While peace prospects appear dim, Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy told the WSJ that he thought Trump “will try to negotiate some energy ceasefire”.

Turning to Asia, markets are mixed this morning. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (+0.45%) is posting a moderate gain, with Japan’s markets still closed until tomorrow. Elsewhere, Chinese equities are under pressure, with the Hang Seng (-0.74%) underperforming both the CSI 300 (-0.50%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.36%). Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.08%) is little changed. US equity futures are also trading near flat, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.09%.

Early data showed Australia’s private sector activity lost momentum in September, with flash PMI figures from S&P Global showing the manufacturing PMI falling to 49.3 from 52.0, while the services PMI eased to 51.4 from 53.2. This pulled the composite PMI down to 50.8 from 52.7. The softer readings suggest a growing impact of elevated energy prices and higher borrowing costs on the economy, as markets widely expect the RBA to deliver another 25bps rate hike at its meeting next week.

To the day ahead, we’ll get September flash PMIs from around the world. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barr, and the ECB’s Vujcic, Zigman, Kaasik, Cipollone and Lane.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 08:50

Former Utah Postal Worker Indicted After Hundreds Of Mail-In Ballots Allegedly Dumped

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

A former U.S. Postal Service worker has been federally indicted after prosecutors say he discarded roughly 300 mail-in ballots meant for Utah voters ahead of the state's June primary election.

Damon Matai Seei, 34, of Payson, was indicted by a federal grand jury Sept. 16 on a charge of unlawful secretion, destruction and delay of mail. He was arrested Tuesday and appeared in federal court in Salt Lake City.

According to prosecutors, Seei was working as a letter carrier June 3 when he was responsible for delivering mail to at least 300 residents in Eagle Mountain. His deliveries included advertisements and hundreds of mail-in ballots for the June 23 primary.

Federal authorities allege Seei instead discarded mail, including the ballots, in a dumpster in a church parking lot. A Justice Department court filing says Seei later told investigators he threw away the mail to "lighten his workload."

Several voters subsequently complained that their ballots had not arrived. Authorities are investigating whether affected residents obtained replacement ballots or were ultimately able to vote.

Seei told investigators he had no political motive, according to officials.

"When American voters lawfully cast their vote, they should feel confident that it is counted," Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter said. "Allegedly throwing away hundreds of ballots is a serious federal crime that undermines the integrity of our elections."

The U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General and Homeland Security Investigations jointly investigated the case. Seei's next court appearance is scheduled for Nov. 30.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 08:30

Cargo Vessel Struck By Unknown Projectile In Hormuz, Casualties Reported

Just the day after the White House reported its envoys had a "very productive" 3-hour long meeting with the Iranian side at the UN in New York, and as President Masoud Pezeshkian is readying to address the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, there's been another tanker attack incident in the Strait of Hormuz.

UKMTO cites in a fresh alert that a cargo vessel has reported being struck by an unknown projectile, resulting in two casualties.

Illustrative file image, Associated Press

All crew has been evacuated, with the vessel on fire and adrift, in what looked to be a major attack by either a drone or missile. Further, "UKMTO said authorities were investigating the incident and that there was no reported environmental impact."

Tehran remained defiant after Tuesday's ultimatum and threats from the UN stage by President Trump. He had posed before the world, provocatively:

"Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before — maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy again?"

"Do I drive them into hell," he continued, "with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness?"

Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali has responded by saying that Washington has no choice but to accept what he called the strait’s new legal status. He asserted this will only be decided under the protocol being implemented by Iran and Oman, and only then will US or other foreign ships pass through the waterway.

Further there was a written, albeit indirect, response from the Ayatollah, who is in hiding:

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, though not in direct response to Trump, used similarly combative imagery in a message marking the start of Iran’s academic year, describing knowledge combined with faith and morality as a “sharp sword” capable of cutting off the hands of aggressors.

Iran’s military has also dismissed threat to "annihilate" the Islamic Republic, stating it is ready to hit back with "crushing" attacks far more severe than what marked earlier phases of the war.

The numbers have doubled in less than a month.

The total crude oil egress via the USN-BL is now 13 Mbpd, with estimated SoH transits at 10.35 Mbpd given that Fujairah and Mina al-Fahal together account for around 2.65 Mbpd on average.

This is partly attributed to Saudi Arabia… https://t.co/ZffcwAhQ4J

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) September 23, 2026

This week had kicked off with similar Hormuz incidents on Sept.20 and 21. The ADNOC Shipping & Logistics LPG carrier and tanker, as well as an Isle of Man-flagged tanker, were attacked by the Iranians in those incidents.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 08:15

Britain To Appoint A Dedicated Tax Agent To Every Single Billionaire

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

The United Kingdom is about to discover the part of the Laffer Curve where the billionaire taxpayers simply get on a plane and go somewhere else.

His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs has now assigned a dedicated “compliance manager” to every billionaire it has identified with a UK tax footprint, dramatically expanding the government’s oversight of the country’s richest people, according to a new report from Bloomberg this week.

HMRC is using its own records, public information and data shared by foreign governments to identify billionaires with UK tax exposure and map their connections to businesses, trusts and other entities. “The UK tax authority has assigned a personal compliance manager to every billionaire within its reach as it seeks to get a better grip on the super-rich’s tax liabilities,” the report says.

HMRC says the goal is straightforward, making sure wealthy taxpayers pay what they legally owe, and the government confirmed this month that every billionaire with a UK tax footprint was allocated a Customer Compliance Manager over the summer.

But consider the message Britain is sending: become extraordinarily successful, build companies, accumulate enough capital and pay enough taxes, and eventually the government assigns an individual bureaucrat to keep tabs on you.

At some point, you have to wonder whether the people designing these policies understand that billionaires are among the most geographically mobile people on Earth. They literally are the most mobile people on the planet. They don’t have to stay.

And they won’t. They can live in Dubai. They can establish themselves in Monaco. They can move to Malta or Switzerland or any number of jurisdictions competing aggressively for wealthy residents, investors and entrepreneurs. Their businesses, capital and families are often international already. Moving is inconvenient, but for someone worth several billion dollars it is hardly an insurmountable obstacle.

In my mind this is what British billionaires do in Monte Carlo

And Britain isn’t exactly starting from zero here. The country abolished its longstanding non-dom tax regime in April 2025, and several prominent billionaires, including hedge-fund manager Chris Rokos, steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal and businessman Nassef Sawiris, have subsequently left the UK. Billionaire Betfred founder Fred Done, whose family reportedly paid roughly £400 million in taxes last year, recently warned that Britain’s increasingly hostile tax environment is pushing wealthy people and businesses elsewhere.

Now imagine you’re another billionaire watching this unfold. You’ve watched other wealthy residents leave. And now you’re informed that the tax authority has effectively assigned someone specifically to understand your finances, behavior, tax returns and potential compliance risks.

HMRC describes these managers in considerably friendlier language, but its own explanation is revealing. Customer Compliance Managers are tasked with developing an “in-depth understanding” of wealthy taxpayers’ finances and behavior, reviewing their returns alongside intelligence gathered both inside and outside Britain, and challenging taxpayers where HMRC believes the correct amount isn’t being paid.

🔥 85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off forever

Of course billionaires should pay every pound of tax they legally owe. Tax fraud should be prosecuted whether the person committing it has £10,000 or £10 billion.

But there is a meaningful difference between enforcing the tax code and designing an enforcement apparatus around a specific class of people simply because they possess extraordinary wealth. HMRC says the allocation reflects wealth, complexity and risk, and supporters will reasonably argue that complicated international fortunes require more specialized oversight.

My concern is what happens when that philosophy becomes cumulative. Higher taxes. The destruction of preferential regimes intended to attract international wealth. Ever-more aggressive information gathering. There is a point where taxation starts feeling less like collecting revenue and more like abusing success. In the U.S. New York City is turning into a prime example of this.

But unlike ordinary taxpayers, the people being targeted have an escape hatch.

Watch what happens next. I suspect Britain is going to discover that there is a practical limit to how much scrutiny and taxation governments can pile onto extremely mobile capital before that capital simply leaves. Dubai, Monaco, Malta and other wealth-friendly jurisdictions don’t need to persuade every billionaire in Britain to relocate. They only need to make the alternative sufficiently attractive. And it is.

The irony is that driving away even a relatively small number of enormously wealthy taxpayers can undermine the entire exercise.

Britain’s wealthy population generated an estimated £95 billion in PAYE and National Insurance receipts and another £65 billion in other taxes in 2025-26, although those figures cover HMRC’s much broader definition of “wealthy” rather than billionaires specifically.

Governments have a habit of treating wealthy taxpayers like permanent entries on a spreadsheet: raise the tax liability, multiply it by the same number of taxpayers, and assume the resulting revenue simply appears.

But people don’t stay frozen in spreadsheet cells forever. When the cost of remaining in a jurisdiction rises enough, behavior changes. People restructure their finances, move assets, alter investment decisions or, particularly at the very top of the wealth distribution, simply leave.

It’s about as basic a concept as you can get when discussing taxation: changing the tax rate can also change the tax base. Yet fiscal projections can make it look as though the people being taxed will sit still indefinitely while their liabilities keep rising.

As New York City's Mamdani has just learned the hard way, billionaires, in particular, have an unusual ability to respond to those incentives…sometimes from a private jet. Britain may soon find this out.

Now read:

• US Taxation Is Fueled by Quiet Envy
• Mamdani Is Destroying The Tax Base His Stupid Ideas Desperately Need
• Imagine Your Tax Dollars Bailing Out Bitcoin

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 08:05

"Developments Can't Be Ignored" As Brent Tumbles On Iran Talks, Saudi Pipeline Restart Hopes: UBS

Brent crude slipped below $99 a barrel, falling as low as $97.77 in the overnight hours, as renewed US-Iran diplomacy and prospects for restored Saudi oil exports eased supply concerns. But as Goldman Sachs energy experts warned on Tuesday, the global refining nightmare will persist through next year.

The benchmark has slipped nearly 11% since mid-month after topping out around $109.65. Reports this week of a partial restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Asian buyers being slated to resume cargo loadings at Yanbu offered some relief to a tight physical market. 

Full East-West pipeline repairs could take as long as two months, according to local reports. Even limited operations would ease the immediate supply squeeze.

President Trump said US officials held "very good" talks with Iranian representatives at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participated in the three-hour talks with their Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of UNGA.

"I feel very good right now," Witkoff said after the meeting. He wrote on X late Tuesday that the US hopes the talks "will prove constructive and promising" and the mediators will continue their work. 

UBS energy specialist Dominic Ellis provided clients with a full view of what's driving energy markets so far this week:

Brent is below $99/bbl, down about 3.8% from Tuesday's high and down under 10% from the $109/bbl hit early last week, as evidence emerged of debottlenecking of Middle East oil exports and of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran.

Saudi Arabia said that flows via the East-West pipeline could partially restart in coming days, and that exports from the port of Yanbu would also restart soon. Full repairs to the pipeline could take up to 8 weeks according to press reports, but even a partial restart would alleviate some of the immediate tightness in oil markets. 

Meanwhile, Iran acknowledged that there had been discussions with the US via intermediaries on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, and said it had shared conditions for a restart of transit via the Strait of Hormuz, which it said could happen in 7 days if conditions were met. President Trump called US talks with Iranian envoys "very good". 

Cynics will note that similar comments from the US in the recent past have not resulted in meaningful progress towards diplomatic goals, and that the US has already rejected calls for an immediate end to its blockade of Iran – one of Iran's preconditions for an easing of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. 

Still, the fact that talks are taking place at all is a development which cannot be ignored, and which is likely to keep downward pressure on oil prices until there is evidence that progress has stalled. On the other hand, a breakthrough in talks could push Brent back into the $80s fairly quickly. 

The desk's base case is that the US has a strong incentive to rely on the "carrot" rather than the "stick" in the period leading up to midterm elections in November. 

Reports on Tuesday that President Trump has made comments supportive of a US diesel export ban (despite Interior Secretary Burgum's statement last week that a ban would not likely have the desired effect) show he is growing concerned about elevated fuel prices in the US, and a focus on diplomacy with Iran may be the easiest way to bring oil and refined product prices down in the near term. 

In the medium term, however, Iranian conditions are not likely to be acceptable to the US, and we would not be surprised at a return to the low-level conflict we’ve seen over the last month.

Crude's retreat from triple digit territory is easing pressure at the pump, with AAA data showing the national average for regular gasoline slipping to $4.474 a gallon on Wednesday. But after a 9.3% surge this month, a modest pullback offers limited political relief for the Trump administration. Prices remain well above the politically sensitive $4 threshold, leaving the White House under pressure to turn diplomatic progress into a concrete deal.

Refer back to Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari's Tuesday note about the prolonged refining crisis and what it means for gas and diesel prices in 2027 (read here). 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 07:45

LNG Buyers Scramble For Conflict-Free Supplies Beyond Gulf As War Rejiggers Global Energy Flows

Since the early days of the US-Iran conflict, we have tracked the rewiring of global energy flows. That theme continues today and is accelerating as LNG buyers seek supplies and shipping routes well beyond the Gulf. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade transited through the Strait of Hormuz, concentrating risk at a single chokepoint. That vulnerability is now driving buyers to rejigger supply networks. 

At last week's Gastech annual conference and exhibition for natural gas and LNG in Bangkok, Thailand, Reuters cited energy executives, government officials, buyers, traders and investors who discussed the urgency of securing new supplies from conflict-free areas, largely because the Hormuz chokepoint has become a major liability. 

Asian governments are pursuing longer-term supply security, while producers and trading houses are broadening their supply networks to include safer regions worldwide.

"A lot of governments are thinking not just diversification of the suppliers, but diversification of supply routes," Sue-Ern Tan, the head of the International Energy Agency's regional cooperation center in Singapore, said at Gastech.

Bangladesh, which previously relied on Qatar for most of its LNG imports, is searching for new supplies in Indonesia, Australia and China. Earlier this year, buyers including PetroChina and India's GAIL secured replacement cargoes outside the Gulf region.

The search for alternatives could support emerging producers including Argentina, East Timor and Tanzania, broadening investment beyond the US and Qatar, which dominate LNG exports. 

Thailand's state-controlled energy group, PTT, is now exploring supplies from Oman, North America and West Africa. Its trading arm recently signed a long-term deal with Norway's Equinor.

Also at Gastech, Shell executive Tom Summers said new capacity had largely offset the loss of 36 million metric tons of Gulf supply, leaving a net global shortfall this year of about 5 million tons, or 1% to 1.5% of supply.

Takayuki Ueda, CEO of Japanese energy firm Inpex, said that companies were focused on "portfolio resilience, portfolio diversification, diversification of supply sources, and also security for the entire supply chain."

Paul Marsden, president of engineering firm Bechtel, expects new supplies from East Africa, including projects involving companies such as ExxonMobil.

The latest EIA figures show that US LNG exports surged, averaging 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in the first half of 2026, up 23% from a year earlier. US exporters are helping replace disrupted Gulf supplies as the waters in the Gulf of America remain calm and commercial maritime traffic remains stable.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 06:55

European Commission Proposes Energy & Water Efficiency Disclosure Rules For Data-Centers

Authored by Zachary Skidmore via Data Centre Dynamics,

The European Commission (EC) has submitted a proposal to require data centers across Europe to disclose their energy and water efficiency metrics.

The European Union (EU) aims to triple its data center capacity over the next five to seven years.

This has raised concerns about the build-out's potential impact on the power grid and natural resource use.

The proposed rules would create a common rating scheme covering data centers with a capacity exceeding 500kW. The scheme would also cover data centers' support for grid balancing services, contributions to waste heat recovery, and use of renewable energy generation.

In support of the proposal, the EC has also launched a call for evidence and public consultation on minimum performance standards for data centers in Europe. The consultation will close in December.

The proposal is now subject to a two-month scrutiny period by the European Parliament and the Council before entering into force. This gives co-legislators the opportunity to object to the proposal, but not to propose amendments.

The first ratings from the scheme are expected sometime in 2027.

A first review is expected to follow by the end of 2028.

European officials have launched several projects to support the bloc's energy system in meeting the demands from the data center sector. In June, the EU launched two initiatives to that effect. The first seeks to bring together a range of stakeholders, including data center developers, energy companies, and public authorities, to integrate data centers into the EU energy system. The second, dubbed the AI grids project, seeks to develop the first pan-European AI foundation model for electricity grids.

The rules came shortly after reports emerged that several of the largest data center operators were accused of using a secrecy provision in EU law to block public access to crucial information about the environmental impact of their data centers.

Data centers are projected to grow exponentially across the European market, forecast to rise from approximately 9.2GW at present to more than 17GW in 2030, much of which is driven by AI. As a result, emissions emanating from the sector are also expected to skyrocket, especially with the data center size also increasing significantly.

The lack of reporting regarding the impact of individual data centers could seriously curtail the ability of independent bodies to scrutinize their impact, potentially impacting the EU's capacity to meet carbon reduction targets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 06:30

China Ranked #1 In World At Math; USA 27th...

How do math skills compare around the world?

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks participating countries and economies by the average mathematics scores of 15-year-old students in the most recent PISA 2025 study, published in September 2026.

PISA assesses students in mathematics, reading, and science. Its mathematics assessment goes beyond memorizing formulas or procedures, measuring whether students can apply mathematical knowledge and reasoning to real-world problems.

More than 760,000 students took part in PISA 2025 across 91 countries and economies, representing roughly 33 million 15-year-olds worldwide.

China in this ranking represents the participating jurisdictions of Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Uzbekistan is excluded because a comparable mathematics score was not reported.

Why East Asia Stands Out in Math Scores

China leads Singapore by 49 points, while Macao and Taiwan rank third and fourth with scores of 549 and 546, respectively.

Rank Country Average PISA score 1 🇨🇳 China 612 2 🇸🇬 Singapore 563 3 🇲🇴 Macao 549 4 🇹🇼 Taiwan 546 5 🇯🇵 Japan 525 6 🇰🇷 Korea 522 6 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 522 8 🇪🇪 Estonia 508 9 🇨🇭 Switzerland 499 10 🇬🇧 UK 488 11 🇨🇦 Canada 485 12 🇵🇱 Poland 484 13 🇳🇱 Netherlands 483 14 🇳🇿 New Zealand 480 14 🇮🇪 Ireland 480 14 🇧🇪 Belgium 480 17 🇦🇺 Australia 478 18 🇦🇹 Austria 477 18 🇨🇿 Czechia 477 20 🇩🇰 Denmark 471 21 🇱🇹 Lithuania 470 22 🇫🇮 Finland 469 22 🇸🇰 Slovakia 469 24 🇮🇹 Italy 468 25 🇩🇪 Germany 464 25 🇸🇪 Sweden 464 27 OECD average 463 27 🇺🇸 United States 463 28 🇹🇷 Türkiye 462 29 🇸🇮 Slovenia 460 29 🇵🇹 Portugal 460 29 🇱🇻 Latvia 460 32 🇭🇺 Hungary 459 33 🇫🇷 France 458 33 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 458 35 🇪🇸 Spain 457 36 🇭🇷 Croatia 455 37 🇦🇪 UAE 453 38 🇳🇴 Norway 452 39 🇮🇸 Iceland 450 40 🇻🇳 Vietnam 443

Japan ranks fifth with 525 points, while Korea and Hong Kong are tied at 522. Estonia breaks up the concentration of East Asian education systems at the top, ranking eighth globally with a score of 508 and placing highest among European countries.

Where the U.S. and Canada Rank

The United States ranks 27th with a score of 463, exactly matching the OECD average.

Canada ranks 11th overall with an average mathematics score of 485, putting it 22 points above the OECD average. It also places ahead of several major European economies, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy.

The United Kingdom ranks 10th with a score of 488. Australia comes in 17th at 478, while New Zealand ties for 14th at 480.

Math Scores Have Fallen Across the OECD

Across OECD countries, average mathematics scores fell by 22 points between 2015 and 2025, equivalent to just over one year of learning. Declines were also recorded among non-OECD participants.

PISA also found an association between heavy digital leisure use and student outcomes. Students spending more than four hours a day on digital leisure activities outside school tended to have lower mathematics scores and a weaker sense of belonging.

By contrast, moderate digital use was associated with better outcomes on both measures than either no use or very high use.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Countries by Education Spending as % of GDP on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 05:45

BBC Memory-Holes Comedy Sketches That Satirized Racism

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The BBC has completely cut multiple sketches from 2006 comedy skit show That Mitchell and Webb Look after dumping the Bafta-winning series back onto its streaming service for its twentieth anniversary.

The official line is that some of the old material no longer "works today." What no longer works, it turns out, is comedy that satirised and mocked the very mindset of racism.

A BBC spokesman said: "This is a 20-year-old sketch show; in consultation with the programme makers, we have included the ones that still work today and not the ones that don't." David Mitchell and Robert Webb have not publicly replied at time of writing.

BBC removes 11 Mitchell and Webb comedy sketches from iPlayer https://t.co/ldobFbxK4h

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) September 21, 2026

The sketches were not random gags that aged badly. They were built as self-aware send-ups of the people doing the offending. Yet in 2026, not even this is acceptable.

Eleven sketches have been stripped out, including a skit named 'How Not What To Look Like / Behind the Scenes: Burqa', a makeover-show parody in which Mitchell plays a contestant in a burqa.

The scene then cuts to Mitchell and Webb as themselves. Webb asks whether they are "just taking the piss out of people's sincerely held beliefs." Mitchell replies: "I think you can worry too much about this kind of thing. I mean, what's offensive to one person is just good, clean fun to another." He then pulls off the burqa and is in blackface.

The entire foundation of the joke is predicated on the fact that putting blackface on a TV show is NOT acceptable. But any clever or nuanced factors just don't matter anymore, because LOOK BLACKFACE IS BAD.

It's the exact point the joke is making. Yet it still got cut because thinking and considering why something is funny isn't permitted in 2026.

Unlike all of the content on Drag Race, these sketches are actually funny pic.twitter.com/aVJXLzV0UC

— ripx4nutmeg (@ripx4nutmeg) September 21, 2026

Another sketch that was erased from history was called 'Racist War Re-enactment'. Mitchell and Webb play bored English Civil War re-enactors who have had enough of Roundheads and Cavaliers.

They then black up to stage a clash between government forces and rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Webb asks: "Are you absolutely sure that this isn't racist?" Mitchell insists it is "a historically accurate recreation of a landmark global conflict."

After a machete comes out and the accent arrives, they stop and admit it is "very, very racist."

this is it, by the way

very funny pic.twitter.com/IwbjvAa7UF

— Dark Cobbett ???? (@darkcobbett) September 21, 2026

In another cut sketch, Webb encounters an apparently indigenous "tribe" living among the ornamental grasses of a garden centre. It parodies the earnest documentary encounter with "uncontacted" peoples, complete with jokes about the expanding home-and-gift aisle.

In another sketch titled 'The War On Bill Oddie', the United Nations, having decided the war on terror is too difficult, launches a war on the birdwatching BBC presenter instead. This was apparently cut because Bill Oddie has since died.

In another sketch, Webb impersonates a TV chef, who has also since died, and delivers 'homophobic' lines as part of the character.

Another sketch titled Rude Gandhi was binned. You can guess why.

Another three skits titled 'Gilbert & Sullivan, parts 1 to 3' were also erased

Reporting also lists a Jimmy Savile gag among the material taken out. The BBC never removed Savile, the monstrous pedophile, from it's decades of programming, even when it was known he was at the very least fucking creepy, yet a joke about Savile from 2006 must be purged.

The famous "Are we the baddies?" Nazi foxhole sketch, featuring the line "Have you noticed that our caps have actually got little pictures of skulls on them?" was left untouched.

That is the irony the corporation cannot see. A sketch about two Waffen-SS officers slowly realising they might be the villains remains available. Sketches in which two white comedians realise they are being racist, and stop, have to be memoryholed.

The joke was never the blackface. The joke was the idiocy and short sightedness of the people doing it.

Comedian Geoff Norcott called teh BBC's actions "sinister":

At least if a channel outright removes a show you can have a clearly defined debate over why, however much you disagree.
There's something sinister about this ongoing retrospective moral pruning.
Especially when the sketches were literally satirising the thought processes... https://t.co/fjheYm07JL

— Geoff Norcott (@GeoffNorcott) September 21, 2026

"There's something sinister about this ongoing retrospective moral pruning," he wrote. "Especially when the sketches were literally satirising the thought processes behind racism."

That is the crux. The comedy was not racist. It was satirising the mindset of racism. No matter. The clip has to vanish from the archive. Context is not allowed. Intent is not allowed. The image is now a crime.

Journalist Charlie Walsham noted, "I despair. The BBC has inserted harmful trans ideology into a range of programmes, from dramas to lifestyle shows to children's programmes. It continues to promote gender ideology despite criticism that this does not reflect reality or impartiality. And yet now the BBC is getting rid of Mitchell and Webb sketches in an Orwellian scrubbing of relatively recent comedy because they apparently 'no longer work today'. Who they no longer work for isn't clear. Humourless lanyard wearers, presumably."

I despair. The BBC has inserted harmful trans ideology into a range of programmes, from dramas to lifestyle shows to children's programmes. It continues to promote gender ideology despite criticism that this does not reflect reality or impartiality.

And yet now the BBC is...

— Charlie Walsham (@CharlieWalsham_) September 21, 2026

British comedian Dom Joly, who has also been the target of such retrospective cancelation, told The Times: "I totally get it if the BBC is putting out something really racist, which is laughing at and encouraging other people to feel that it's OK to do that. But it's so clear that Mitchell and Webb are not doing that."

"Their intent was not to be racist," Joly urged, calling the move "classic BBC overkill" and "hysterical censorship."

Jimmy Mulville, co-founder of production company Hat Trick, said producers had to be careful "that this is not the thin end of a wedge where we cut things out," and added: "Personally ... I wouldn't censor anything."

Another core point to all of this is that Mitchell and Webb are not some sort of right wing or anti-establishment wreckers. They are the definition of safe, left-liberal BBC talent. They're all over Milquetoast Panel shows and 'highbrow' Radio 4 programming. They still appear across the corporation. They are not Tommy Robinson with a sketch show.

If even they have to have their work sanitised because a clip of blackface exists for two seconds as the punchline of an anti-racist joke, then the standard is not "harm." The standard is discomfort.

Oscar winning actress Olivia Colman also appears throughout the cut material. The same Olivia Coleman who has been dubbed "the most insufferable Left-wing celebrity in Britain."

Ideology that flatters the current staff is "representation." Comedy that makes the same staff wince is "no longer working today." We have covered that institutional capture before.

Little Britain was pulled in 2020 for blackface, then returned with cuts and a warning. Mitchell and Webb now get the same treatment, except the sketches being deleted are the ones that already contained the warning inside the joke. The characters stop. They call themselves racist. They walk away. That is not enough. The whole thing must now be deleted.

Licence-fee payers funded the original broadcasts. They are now being told those broadcasts exist in a lesser, safer form because a modern day committee of wet sponges decided the satire might be misunderstood by someone who will not listen to or understand the punchline.

The show that gave the culture the line "are we the baddies?" has been quietly edited so todays baddies, the new puritans, never have to ask the question of themselves.

The BBC, which once pushed boundaries with comedy programming like The Office and The Day Today has now become a platform for the most humourless, woke, leftist claptrap imaginable.

But it's worse than that.

Parents have accused the BBC of harming children through a drip-feed of pro-trans content in kids' programming, from Hey Duggee pronouns to medical-transition storylines treated as settled fact.

Former news director Fran Unsworth said the "progressive madness" and bullying around trans coverage drove her out.

The same machine has handed activist campaigners a seat at the table on children's output and used flagship soaps to launder pro-migrant storylines.

 

It has recast 1066 with a racially 'diverse' lineup, pushed a furry storyline into a soap, produced a microaggressions film so alien to ordinary life that it went viral as a joke, and been accused of using soaps as a covert vaccine-compliance tool.

     

It will not hire people who refuse the diversity catechism. A senior employee once branded white people a "parasitical, deviant breed." A report on Islamic child slavery in Afghanistan was framed as grimly "necessary." News output has been deceptively edited and shaped in ways the corporation now faces lawsuits over.

         

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 05:00

The State Of Democracy

After eight consecutive years of declining scores, the 2025 EIU Democracy Index showed a stabilization of democracy around the world.

In the latest edition, almost 75 percent of countries either saw their score improve or remain stable compared to 2024, as the global average score across 167 countries and territories improved slightly to 5.2 out of 10.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The index, which assesses electoral processes, governance, civil liberties, political participation and political culture classified 26 countries as full democracies, including all Scandinavian countries, several other European nations as well as Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Mauritius, Taiwan, Japan and Latin American countries Uruguay and Costa Rica.

However, as Statista's Felix Richter reports, notably absent from the top category was the United States, which saw its score fall from 7.85 to 7.65 and was once again classified as a "flawed democracy".

Once considered a shining example of democracy in the world, the country now ranks 35th between Poland and Botswana, as its civil liberties score deteriorated under the Trump administration and its political culture was rated badly due to the intense polarization in the country.

Globally, the three worst-rated countries remained unchanged, with Afghanistan, Myanmar and North Korea at the bottom of the table for non-existing civil liberties, electoral process and pluralism. At the other end of the scale, Norway, New Zealand and Denmark were ranked as the most democratic countries in the world, with Norway rated particularly highly for electoral process and pluralism, political participation and civil liberties.

While the decline of democracy at the global level has been stopped, the share of the world's population living in full democracies is still remarkably low at just 6.6 percent. Meanwhile, 39 percent of the world's population live in countries rated as authoritarian, with China and Pakistan the most populous examples.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 04:15

Flash In The Pan Already Burned Out: German Economy Loses Its Hormuz Boost

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

That Was a Short-Lived Boom.

After just a few weeks, the special economic effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already evaporated, according to Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs. In its monthly report, the ministry states that energy-intensive sectors and companies in German industry benefited from a massive disruption of supply chains in Asia following the closure — a one-time opportunity to temporarily offset the competitive disadvantages at home by shutting out the competition and moving into the business vacuum that had emerged.

Companies in the chemical and metals industries in particular benefited from this special situation, which generated robust growth in the second quarter, the ministry said.

Ultimately, the effect faded faster than expected. After just a few weeks, the German economic miracle was over — and the gray reality has returned. According to the ministry, the German economy continues to lack growth impulses. The stagnation is therefore continuing.

Bad news for the German government, and even worse news for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is desperately hoping for economic figures he can use as campaign ammunition rather than going into the next election with completely empty hands when voters hand him another political rebuke in just a few days. Pressure on the unpopular chancellor is also growing within his own party. Merz should actually be delivering something substantial by now — after more than a year of his debt orgy. He should be spreading hope of an impending upswing. Instead, his artificial economy, bloated with ever more debt, keeps collapsing like a soufflé.

The figures from the economy show that this soufflé will not rise again anytime soon. Industrial production is currently 3.3 percent below its level a year ago. Energy-intensive industries in particular, which are falling back into their old apathy after the Iranian special boom, reported a 1.7 percent decline in July. No stimulus can be expected from German consumers — real retail sales fell by 3.4 percent from the previous month in July. Inflation is eating into household purchasing power, and the weak labor market is showing its teeth.

Given the dramatic state of German industry, no one should expect an upswing in the German labor market. A total of 144,000 industrial jobs have been lost in the past twelve months alone. In August, the number of unemployed stood at 3.06 million — although statistical manipulation involving unregistered unemployed people in job-creation programs, short-time work or early retirement conceals the true state of the labor market. The naked truth about the German economy is also hidden in basic income support and other social programs — underemployment is a far greater problem than the statistics allow us to see.

Compared with the previous year, Germany’s job centers count 226,000 fewer people employed in the German economy. The German state’s reforestation program in the public sector will do little more than provide cosmetic relief. The decline is real, and it is reflected in corporate insolvencies, which this year are at their highest level since 2013.

More than 18,500 corporate failures over the past twelve months are now on the books. They are compelling evidence of the structural problems at Germany’s economic location, which could only be eliminated through a political U-turn of 180 degrees. Yet even following a political change, returning to a path of growth would probably be difficult. The collateral damage left behind by political ideologues has simply become too great.

Germany is trapped: cut off from Russian gas, caught in the grip of the emerging diesel-price crisis caused by the Hormuz closure, and dependent on the goodwill of the Americans, who have become its main supplier of fossil fuels — the German economy is stumbling toward a price shock with almost no alternatives.

Once this energy shock works its way through the economic chain and into consumer prices, many German households will be in trouble. They have already been suffering from rising prices for years. Among supporters of degrowth ideology, this fatal combination of circumstances may be cause for celebration. Everyone, however, should be aware that Germany’s deeply divided society needs a boost in prosperity more urgently than ever. And growth is only conceivable in an environment of secure and affordable energy.

Economics is the study of relationships and scarcity. Germany is competing with giants such as China and the United States. Energy prices there are now so significantly below German levels that the bleeding of domestic industry has become inevitable, regardless of how much subsidy money is pumped into the economic body through subsidized industrial electricity prices or direct aid.

Political action in these times appears bizarre. Berlin and Brussels are responding to their own interventionism, the regulatory shackles left behind by low interest rates, climate regulation and energy policy, with further regulation and strangulation of businesses. Are we really surprised by the zombification of large parts of the economy, which now has to compensate for the significant rise in borrowing costs? This policy is dangerous to society. It is destabilizing and could only be prevented by a radical return to the market economy, to a principle of limited government while mobilizing all the forces of society. Until that realization matures, it will be a long and very dangerous road for all supporters of a free society and the market economy.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 03:30

Nordics Consistently Lead The World In Gender Equality

For the 17th consecutive time, the World Economic Forum has named Iceland the most gender-equal country in the world.

This is according to the Global Gender Gap Report 2026, which was released earlier this week.

Iceland is the only country to have closed its gender gap by more than 90 percent and one of only four economies that have consistently been in the top 10 since the index's inception in 2006.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, aside from Iceland, these are Finland, Norway and Sweden, with the former two making the top three for the third consecutive year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

European economies have consistently filled most of the top 10 spots over the past two decades, with Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Moldova, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom having each featured at least once in the past 20 years.

Several countries from Sub-Saharan Africa also made it into the top 10 over the years, including South Africa, ranked sixth in 2009, and Lesotho (2009, 2010 and 2011. Rwanda was in the top 10 for eight consecutive years between 2014 and 2022, partly due to the fact that it has achieved full parliamentary parity - a feat few nations worldwide have managed. Namibia first joined the top 10 in 2018, before it rose to sixth place in 2021 and climbed to a record fourth place this year.

New Zealand and the Philippines are the two countries in Eastern Asia and the Pacific to have appeared fairly consistently in the top 10 throughout the Gender Gap Report’s history, while in Latin America and the Caribbean, Nicaragua is the sole high performing country. Notably, the regions of Central Asia, Southern Asia, North America and the Middle East and Northern Africa are underrepresented at the top of the gender parity ranking.

The Gender Gap Index is a means to benchmark gender parity across four dimensions: economic opportunities, educational, health and political leadership. The level of progress toward gender parity is calculated as the ratio of the value of each indicator for women to the value for men, with a parity score of 1 indicating full parity. The index also expresses progress toward gender parity as a percentage.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 02:45

Iraqi PM Sets New June 2027 Deadline To Disarm Resistance Factions

Authored by News Desk via The Cradle,

(Photo credit: AFP)

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced a June 2027 deadline for the disarmament of the country's resistance factions in comments released on 21 September, extending a previous deadline which had been set for the end of this month.

Iraq PM sets June 2027 deadline to disarm armed militias
——
Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged to disarm the country’s militias by June 2027, outlining the phased plan for the first time in an interview with The New York Times in Baghdad on Saturday.

“This is not… pic.twitter.com/nGNEtFQ9mp

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) September 22, 2026

The announcement came in an interview with the New York Times (NYT), carried out on Saturday, during which Zaidi detailed the disarmament plan that Washington has been pushing so heavily for.

"This is not something that is optional. It is a necessity. Others who spoke of this then backtracked. They yielded to pressure or to other concerns. For me, this issue, along with that of corruption, is a matter of honor," the Iraqi premier told NYT.

"We wish to build bridges and economic ties between Iraq and the countries of the world. Under this government, Iraq will be a meeting point, not a point of hostility. Arms have to be confined first so you can build a solid economy," he added.

Zaidi had previously announced a 30 September deadline to disarm the Iraqi factions. Yet this deadline was firmly rejected by the resistance, leading to the extension.

"There would first be a 90-day period during which the militias would not launch any attacks and be assured that they would not be attacked by US forces," Zaidi said to NYT.

"After that, the [factions] would begin handing over their weapons, with disarmament ending by 30 June, 2027."

According to NYT, the resistance is "pushing" to have the deadline extended to the end of next year.

The newspaper refers to the new date as ambitious.

"The timeline is extremely precarious" and "impossible to meet during a time of war," regional diplomats and Iraqi security officials are quoted as saying by the outlet.

Zaidi claims the plan will ensure the resistance factions "cease to exist as independent entities."

"They will join the Popular Mobilization Units as individuals and integrate into them," he went on to say.

US President Donald Trump's administration has adopted a significantly more coercive approach than its predecessors to disarming the Iraqi resistance, stepping up pressure on Baghdad in recent months to dismantle the resistance factions swiftly.

Washington reportedly froze security programs with Baghdad and blocked dollar shipments to the country earlier this year to pressure Iraq into dismantling Iran-backed resistance groups.

Iraqi resistance groups have demanded a full US withdrawal, rather than the "transitional" pullout agreed on between the US and Iraq, which will see Washington shift from a "combat" to an "advisory" role, while still retaining a military presence in the country.

At the height of the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran, these resistance groups inflicted heavy damage on US assets in Iraq.

They have also supported Gaza militarily throughout the genocide and have carried out operations in response to Israeli war crimes in Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 02:00

SB Energy Delays IPO Funding World's Largest Data Center Amid Investor Revolt, Public Outcry

Slowly the data center dream is turning into a nightmare.

Over the weekend, we reported that the price on the massive $18 billion leveraged loan backing Oracle's just as massive $165 billion, 4.5GW New Mexico data center, Project Jupiter, had fallen to "stressed" levels around 89-91 cents on the dollar.

What makes the price slide from par in just a few months especially concerning is that the 1,400-acre data center campus in Doña Ana County is at the heart of Oracle’s landmark $300bn contract with OpenAI to provide computing power. The marquee project secured $18Bn of loans from a consortium of banks late last year to kick-start construction, along with billions of equity investment from Blue Owl.

As for why the price is dropping, the answer is simple: the market is getting increasingly concerned that the data center will not be built on time (if ever) amid extreme grassroots opposition to data centers. Most recently, the project has faced due to fierce local opposition over concerns about its impact on the local area’s water supply and air quality. The project was initially going to be powered by 2.2 gigawatts of gas turbines, but the state land office blocked a request to run a natural gas pipeline to the data center.

Worse, Deb Haaland, New Mexico’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee and a former US Interior secretary, said she would pause all new data centres if elected in November and require developers to heavily invest in renewable energy. In other words, a Blue sweep virtually assures years of delays. 

But it's not just the Project Jupiter data center. 

Readers may recall that a month ago, Nvidia announced it would back a massive, 4.25GW SoftBank data center (which won't be completed for years) with $105 billion in additional funding. The project, led by SB Energy - subsidiary of the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank that aspires to build the largest data center project in the world (because it wouldn't be like Masa Son to go for anything but the world's biggest) in Ohio - is set to be fully leased to OpenAI, and could eventually grow to 10GW, making it the world's largest data center (but let's get to just 1GW first though).

Nvidia - which initially planned to support the SB Energy project with as much as $250bn, but got cold feet after facing investor pushback over the extent of the risk - will provide a $105bn "residual value guarantee" backstop for the project, helping lower debt costs. 

Nvidia will also invest $1.5bn in SB Energy, down from a reported $3bn. The SoftBank subsidiary, which we said in August was preparing for an IPO, is planning to build 10GW of new power generation, including 9.2GW of natural gas generation, to power the facility. This will provide up to 8GW of total IT load, making it the world's biggest data center when finished.

Yet fast forward just one month to today, when said IPO - whose proceeds are so very critical to the continued construction and timely completion of the project - has been pulled. 

According to the NYT, while SB Energy had originally planned its I.P.O. for this month, the offering has been delayed, as investors question the company’s sought-after valuation of $50 billion or more. The report goes on to note that so far, bankers have struggled to find enough buyers of SB Energy stock within price ranges the company and its bankers had sought.

SB Energy’s struggles to win over investors come at the worst possible time: just as the backlash against data centers that is shaping elections and kitchen table debates across the country (which we warned about last summer) is now spilling onto Wall Street with "investors voicing increasing skepticism about the growth expectations for data centers and the risks associated with their build-out, forcing industry executives and their advisers to recalibrate their plans to raise tens of billions of dollars in public markets."

The pulled IPO also comes just days after Holtec - which specializes in nuclear energy technology, spent fuel storage, small modular reactors (SMRs), and nuclear plant decommissioning and is hoping to supply power for AI - said last week that it was pausing its I.P.O. plans indefinitely, citing several factors that have “impaired investor confidence in the market for new public offerings.”

Holtec pointed to the “uncertainty of data center development” as the primary reason for the postponement, according to a company release. Holtec Nuclear owns and operates one main nuclear power site and builds small nuclear reactors that can be used to power data centers. The company, which had planned to start trading on Nasdaq last week, was seeking to raise as much as $900 million at a valuation of up to $10 billion.

The delays, the NYT notes, "are a rare hiccup for the A.I. industry, which has enjoyed almost unbridled investor enthusiasm in recent years."

The rest of the article is boilerplate, repeating the same stuff we have warned about since mid-2025: 

Public opposition to data centers has built for months as communities push back against these sprawling, power-guzzling facilities that have sprung up across the country, particularly in rural areas. 

Heading into the midterm elections, data centers present an unusual issue that many voters from both parties oppose. They have become a focal point for the public’s angst about an economy dominated by artificial intelligence.

Over the past week, fears over artificial intelligence hit a fever pitch as A.I. executives warned of the technology’s dangers and suggested slowing down the pace of development.

In this context, a growing number of states have taken their own steps to curtail data center development, creating roadblocks for companies looking to raise money from public investors. Earlier today, we reported that "Texas Governor Abbott Orders Halt To New Data Centers Weeks After Issuing Moratorium."

Not surprisingly, this hostile environment is snuffing out most enthusiasm for data center prospects. To wit: there are only two publicly traded companies that focus solely on building data centers: Equinix and Digital Realty Trust, and their share prices have fallen between 1 and 2% this month. This is very troubling when one considers that data-center companies had been expected to account for roughly one-third of all listings for the remainder of 2026, per NYT sources.

It also doesn't help that among the data center companies seeking to go public, there’s a wide dispersion of operating track record and history and customer concentration. Most projects are in the early stages, leaving the companies vulnerable to execution risks.

Investors say that is one of the risks giving them pause about SB Energy.

SB Energy has agreed to build, own and operate a data center in Ohio, which is fast becoming an epicenter of the political debate against and public outcry data centers.  

And while SB Energy has huge ambitions (as noted above, the biggest data center it plans on rolling out will be the world's biggest when completed) it has yet to put one into operation. Worst still, despite its non-existent track record, the company projects a revenue backlog of $439 billion that it will receive over roughly 20 years beginning in 2028, mostly from the Ohio data center

Last week, with the IPO still in the works, SB Energy tried to win over investors by hosting a call with OpenAI’s chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, and its head of infrastructure, Sachin Katti, who discussed the merits of the Ohio data center. Some investors said SB Energy’s decision to present senior executives from OpenAI - the company’s core tenant - showed its awareness of the skepticism.

In the end, it wasn't enough since the IPO has now been delayed. While SB Energy released its financials on Sept. 1, it is not expected to go public before mid- to late October, later than its original schedule.

According to the NYT, two people familiar with the company’s plans said they both wanted the option to go public in September and to also give investors more time if needed to get comfortable with its future plans and its financials.

Why? Well, the recent collapse in token prices and the surge in Chinese open-weight models which has grabbed market share from US frontier models, such as OpenAI, may have something to do with it.

Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:

🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%

While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).… pic.twitter.com/vFMh3xEt83

— Guillermo Rauch (@rauchg) September 19, 2026

To be sure, some companies have had more luck than SB Energy: Nscale, which has plans to develop data centers across the globe and counts Anthropic and Microsoft among its customers (because there really are just 4 or 5 customers in the world that can make a dent right now, and these two are among them), disclosed its finances Friday in preparation for a public offering in October. Bankers and investors say it could be the first test of how the market will price these deals in this more discerning environment.

“You cannot be long on artificial intelligence and not be supporting infrastructure build-out because this has to go hand in hand,” said Harmol Samra, chief executive officer of Host Digital, a data-center developer.

Well... you can. You just don't have to lock yourself in to the first valuation that comes along. 

Take Hyperion, aka Project Beignet, Meta's original project financing template (which has been adopted by virtually all subsequent data center developments) and its its massive 5GW New Orleans Data Center, which - like all other projects - will be completed some time in the 2030s.

When it first came to market with the gargantuan (total investment now is $50BN and rising fast) data center, Meta issued $27 billion in bonds to fund the project. This was (and still is) the single biggest investment grade offering in the world. 

Well, after it traded up to 110 cents on the dollar shortly after the break, the bonds due 2049, which were priced to yield 6.581%, have since sunk pretty much in a straight line, and are now trading near all time lows less than a year after their issuance, last seen just over 94 cents on the dollar...

... and blowing out in spread from 140bps originally to 210bps now, much to the Chagrin of the project's biggest bond investor, Pimco, which holds about $15 billion of the debt. 

For those asking what can possibly break the stock market party, where various AI-linked stocks have pushed the market to record highs even as most stocks keep dropping (today we just had the 6th day in a row of more 52 week lows than highs), look no further than the chart above, and also follow what happens to the SB Energy IPO. Since it can't be pulled, SoftBank will end up having to downsize it (and the project's valuation) significantly, meaning it will have to find even more sources of capital who will demand even more preferential terms, and so on, until the big picture turns either much more attractive (don't expect that to happen if Democrats sweep in November) ... or much worse (which will happen if China continues capturing LLM market share and pummeling token prices) at which point SoftBank will have to pull the plug.  

Which, incidentally, would would have devastating consequences for Sam Altman's OpenAI IPO, as two of the five most important data centers of the company's Stargate initiative - Project Jupiter and SB Energy, which collectively would account for over 10GW in compute - go dark. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 23:14

Kim Jong Un Touts Hypersonic Missile Test: 'Incurable Headache' To Enemies

North Korea has continued to try and instill fear into Washington and Seoul, on Sunday firing two short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan.

However, these were apparently new military toys in the arsenal, with state media touting "a new type of weapon" - which Kim Jong Un later described as capable of giving "the enemy an incurable headache and a very cruel and unavoidable blow."

Kim further said the test, which was conducted by North Korea’s Missile Administration, showcased the armed forces' ability to fight and that "the enemy will know better what such progress means without any explanation."

As for what makes this a 'new' weapon which is special and out of the ordinary, Space.com details:

But photos suggest that it involved a short-range missile topped with a hypersonic warhead, according to NK News, a Seoul-based publication that focuses on happenings in the Hermit Kingdom.

Hypersonic vehicles travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound and are highly maneuverable. They are therefore much harder to track and intercept than ballistic missiles, which, though very fast, follow predictable trajectories.

DPRK state media

Kim further hinted at this when talking about his country's possession of "ultra-modern defense technology."

The pace North Korean missile tests have been steadily ticking up.

During the first Trump administration, Kim met the US president on a series of occasions. While historic, it didn't lead to the kind of breakthrough on 'de-nuclearization' that Washington and Seoul were hoping for, and Pyongyang has gone back to being on the extreme defensive.

🇰🇵 "An incurable headache for adversaries"

On September 20, Pyongyang conducted tests of a new hypersonic missile under the personal supervision of Kim Jong Un.

Released footage revealed, for the first time, flight data for a missile designated "Hwasong-11B-1." According to… pic.twitter.com/1HqDRJ0IeD

— dana (@dana916) September 22, 2026

The White House has lately signaled it would like to get back on a direct diplomacy track with Pyongyang, but North Korea has been blistering angry over recent US-South Korea military drills on the peninsula.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 23:00

Elon Musk Is Powering The American Renaissance

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Daily Signal,

Editor's note: This is a lightly edited transcript of today's video from Daily Signal senior contributor Victor Davis Hanson. Subscribe to the YouTube channel to see more of his videos.

Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily Signal.

There's a lot of controversy about Elon Musk. His reputation took a big hit, remember, right after the election, because half the country voted, roughly 48%, voted against Donald Trump. Elon Musk had flipped from a former Hillary Clinton supporter and Joe Biden supporter to a firm MAGA adherent and voted for Donald Trump in 2024.

As a result of that and his comments opposing illegal immigration, there were people who not only were demonstrating against [Immigration and Customs Enforcement], but attacking Tesla dealerships. Everybody said that Elon Musk's brand had suffered accordingly, that Tesla was on the way down, that European and American [electric vehicle] makers, along with Chinese EV makers, would dominate the market, given the tarnishing of the Musk brand and in conjunction with the end of the federal subsidy for electric vehicles.

So, people were suggesting that the era of Elon Musk was over. He was very controversial, and he was outspoken on his own platform, X, on conservative issues such as illegal immigration, green energy, [artificial intelligence] in ways that infuriated the Left. And the Left, remember, was considered the natural consumer of electric vehicles.

So, are we watching the decline of Elon Musk? No. No, no, no. The exact opposite is happening. In the second quarter of 2026, Tesla had a rebound, and it captured 52% of all the EVs sold in the United States. It has a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion. The other "Big Three" automakers are beginning to exit the EV market.

China cannot send their EVs into the United States. Why did Tesla rebound? Was it because all of a sudden Elon Musk had a fight with Donald Trump for a while? No. Was it because he apologized to the Left? No. It's because when you buy a Tesla and you drive it and you compare it with other brands of the Big Three in terms of distancing, acceleration, safety, appurtenances, it's not just better, but it keeps getting better geometrically, at a geometric rate, not just an arithmetic.

It has the best program for self-driving. It's the safest. It has the longest range. It's the most fun to drive, and people like it regardless of their politics. If you move to SpaceX, 67% of all the satellites in low orbit around the world today are associated with Elon Musk's SpaceX company - 67%, over 12,000 satellites.

The market capitalization of SpaceX is well over $2 trillion - $2 trillion. SpaceX, with its various rockets, has saved a morbid, calcified, ossified NASA. It alone, with its rocketry and space vehicles, has put the United States not just back into the so-called space race and return to the moon and eventually to Mars, it's made it preeminent over the Europeans, the Japanese, and the Chinese. More importantly, it's given the United States enormous technological advances in rocketry, ballistic missiles, which have a definite military component to them.

When Elon Musk paid an exorbitant fee for X, people felt that he had made an enormous mistake, that it was overpriced. And yet, people were saying that users would abandon him and go elsewhere. In fact, that has not happened. That has not happened. There are 560 million users of X today. BlueSky, the alternative that was supposed to break X, has 3 million users.

Three million versus 560 million users.

And remember that his Starlink satellite platform has captured 97% of all satellite internet usage.

There are 12 million people who have a Starlink receiver and are subscribers in 160 countries. Most of the U.S. military and our allied militaries, including the Ukrainians and the Israelis, count on Starlink to guide their missiles and their drones, to protect them from incoming attack.

Let's just put all of this in some kind of perspective.

In terms of market capitalization, Elon Musk has well over $3.5 trillion in his various companies. SpaceX is the largest and it's the most dominant, and it will either ensure that the United States is first in space exploration and satellite launching.

And, by the way, more satellites were launched on Elon Musk rockets last year than all of the satellites launched elsewhere put together. In addition to that, he created the electric vehicle market. It did not exist. He created the idea. Everyone said it would not work, that he was going to go broke, and he was finished.

He not only created the Tesla electric vehicle, he made it preeminent and dominant today. And he did it because, for the price and a cost-benefit analysis, it was unmatched. In terms of Grok, it is about third. About 16% of all AI platforms and chatbots use Grok. So, let's just keep that in perspective.

The United States is preeminent today in social media, in artificial intelligence, in satellite launches, in the number of rocket launches in general, in electric vehicles. And all of that put together is due to one person, Elon Musk, who has been reviled and attacked by the Left as either treasonous or insane or cruel or whatever.

One man has combined the talents of Alexander Graham Bell, Thomas Edison, and Henry Ford all in one person, and he's an American. In other words, much of the success of the United States' current renaissance in digital media, in satellites, in electrical vehicles, in AI, in software is due to one person. One person can make a difference. In the case of Elon Musk, he made a big difference.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of the Daily Signal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 22:35

China's DJI Alone Dwarfs Entire US Drone Production

Two active wars across Eurasia, intensifying resource nationalism, and an energy crisis are adding urgency to US efforts to reduce dependence on China. Concerns about a potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan reinforce the supply chain decoupling theme. 

The proliferation of attritable drones and interceptors is reshaping the economics of warfare. Industrial capacity, production costs, and the ability to replace cheap one-way attack drones at scale are becoming key considerations as the US military prepares for a rearmament supercycle. 

The challenge for the US is that the industrial base has been hollowed out for decades, and ramping up capacity and building new supply chains will take years. On top of that, China dominates the processing of many critical minerals and will likely hold a quasi-monopoly on the space through the end of the decade. The US is actively seeking to build out new conflict-free critical material supplies, but that will take years. 

Together, these dependencies on foreign supply chains could constrain the US rearmament supercycle.

Another uncomfortable reality for the West came in the form of a case study highlighted in a slide deck and shared recently on X, showing that China's drone production is absolutely running circles around the US.

The slide highlights a massive gap between Chinese and US drone production, comparing DJI alone with the entire American industry:

• DJI reported monthly production: 2.8 million drones
• DJI annualized capacity: 34 million drones
• Estimated annual US production: about 100,000 drones
• US Drone Dominance procurement through 2028: around 340,000 drones

Using those figures, DJI's annual capacity would be roughly 340 times current US annual output, which the slide rounds to approximately 300 times.

The only conceivable path back to parity with China in weapons production requires the development of a globally competitive American civilian electronics industry that we can turn over to war production if the need arises

Before and after mobilization it must pay for itself https://t.co/Bu7UsuDSo4

— mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 (@mattparlmer) September 20, 2026

The message is that, as an uncertain and volatile world heads toward greater instability, the US faces an industrial-scale challenge: developing low-cost drones is only part of the problem; manufacturing them at scale is another. Procuring the rare earths needed for motors and sensors is yet another major issue as China chokes off supplies to the West.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 22:10