Zero Rss

Iran's Ghalibaf Tells Iranians 'Unify' As US Blockade Seeks To 'Make Us Collapse From Within'

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has since the war's start and prior assassinations of top leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei become the most visible figurehead representing the Islamic Republic to the world, has continued trolling the United States even as President Trump is renewing fresh military strikes amid an uneasy extended ceasefire and ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports.

He stated Wednesday that the United States' naval blockade of the country has a goal to create division and "make us collapse from within." His message was delivered through state TV and he is warning citizens about "maintaining unity" in the face of this unprecedented economic and military pressure.

Ghalibaf went on to explain that Trump falsely "divides the country into two groups: hardliners and moderates, and then immediately talks about a naval blockade to force Iran into submission through economic pressure and internal discord," according to more from state media sources.

via state media

"The enemy has entered a new phase and wants to activate economic pressure and internal division through naval blockade and media hype to weaken or even make us collapse from within," he continued, urging Iranians that the only solution is to keep national unity amid the assault.

This hearkens back to Trump having said earlier this month that the Iranian government was "seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so."

This was quickly followed by reports that Ghalibaf himself was being sidelined by the IRGC when it comes to the next potential US-Iranian talks. But Tehran quickly rejected reports that the influential parliament speaker had been removed from the negotiating team.

As for definitions of 'hardline vs. moderate' - these are somewhat superficial and manufactured by the West (akin to prior Middle East wars and regime change operations, with one recent example being so-called "moderate rebels" in Syria).

With the MSM and Iran, this is based fundamentally on speculation from afar and circular logic. Any Iranian official who is against pursuing more negotiations - while understandably coming to the conclusion that Washington can't be trusted (after it bombed Iran twice during talks) - gets automatically labelled 'hardliner' by the MSM, and this also carries all kinds of implications overlapping with radical Islam. The idea is to make anyone not amenable to Washington and Israeli plans for the region look irrational and fanatical - even if their decisions might be rational and understandable based on Iranian national self-interest and survival.

Meanwhile Ghalibaf has continued trolling the US on X over rising oil and gas prices, which again suggests that Tehran is settling in for a long war, and is willing to endure and survive politically...

3 days in, no well exploded.We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here.
That was the kind of junk advice the US admin gets from people like Bessent who also push the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120+. Next stop:140. The issue isn't the theory, it's the mindset.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 29, 2026

The longer the Hormuz standoff goes, and the more the anti-Tehran rhetoric flows out of the White House and from Trump on Truth Social, the more likely the Iranian so-called hardliners are to influence broader numbers of Iranian leaders and sectors of the public. This is especially if Tehran gets bombed again, which is looking likely.

Yet Washington is hoping that it actually produces the opposite: admin officials have expressed hope that common Iranians would take to the streets in large numbers, with regime collapse being the end goal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 13:20

GDP Shocker: 75% Of US Growth In The First Quarter Was Due To AI

On the surface, today's Q1 GDP print was unremarkable: Real GDP grew 2.0% annualized in the first quarter, somewhat below consensus expectations of 2.3% and reflecting a surprisingly small rebound in government spending after the shutdown drag in Q4. Federal government spending contributed only half as much to real GDP growth in Q1 (+0.6%) as it subtracted in Q4 (-1.2%), implying that the level of real federal government spending in Q1 is 2.2% below its level in 2025Q3. Inventory accumulation also contributed less to Q1 growth than we had anticipated (+0.4pp vs. our expectation of +1.2pp). Net exports subtracted 1.3% from GDP after boosting it dramatically in early 2025 as imports surpassed exports. Consumer spending rose 1.6%, somewhat above consensus expectations, but as we noted earlier, much of this has been due to "stimulus" refunds which are now over, and which pushed spending growth far higher than income growth.

Even with the stimmies, personal savings dropped to a 3 year low.

Yet when we get to fixed investment, something remarkable emerges: Housing investment declined 8%, and subtracted 0.31% from the bottom line GDP print, which is to be expected with mortgage rates remaining very high, maintaining a depressed housing market.

But Nonresidential fixed investment was the outlier, soaring by 10.4%, largely reflecting a boost from higher electronics imports and a 12% annualized decline in software prices.

Let's take a closer look at the breakdown.

The chart below shows quarterly annualized GDP growth broken down by components. It shows that Q1 GDP grew at exactly 2.0% in Q1. Also notable is that traditionally strong consumption, which contributed 1.0% of GDP growth, was offset by net trade (1.3%) with, inventories (0.4%) and government (0.73%) providing a modest offset. 

The highlighted block is Fixed Investment, which contributed 1.1%. However, keep in mind that residential fixed investment subtracted 0.31% from the total number, which means that Nonresidential fixed investment was responsible for 1.38% of the 2.0% GDP print.

Focusing on the fixed investment component, we find the following: as noted above, it was all about non-residential fixed investment.

Zooming into this segment, we find that Nonresidential equipment grew by 6.3%, or contributing 0.9% to the 2.0% GDP, while Intellectual Property products grew just over 5%, and added 0.7% to the bottom line GDP. 

While IP is clear - it consists primarily of Software, the kind that one uses to create and develop AI tools, as well as R&D - the components behind Nonresidential equipment need a closer look again, and here we find that Information Processing equipment, i.e., data centers, grew at a stunning 13%, comprising virtually all of the 0.88% contribution to 2% GDP growth.

And there you have it: between Software (0.7% of the GDP growth) and Nonresidential Equipment (0.88%), AI - which was the primary driver behind growth in both - contributed just over 1.5% to GDP growth of 2.0%; in other words about 75% of all US growth in Q1 was due to AI.

Another way to visualize the remarkable impact of spending on "computers" is the chart below: it clearly shows just how reliant the US has become on spending on computer products.

And that's why AI is now not only a market bubble, but it has become a core anchor propping up the entire US economy; it's also why the US government will have no choice but to backstop it once the inevitable AI bubble pops. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 12:53

DeSantis Rolls Out Redistricting Map - Partisan Framing May Put It In Legal Peril

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rolled out a proposed redistricting map for the state this week, but the way he did it could give ammunition to lawyers mounting inevitable legal challenges that will follow the map's expected approval by the legislature, both Democratic and Republican observers say. Some Republican legislators are uneasy with DeSantis' rollout of the plan -- which he shared with Fox News before he shared it with them. 

Today, Republicans hold 20 of Florida's US House seats, compared to 8 held by Democrats. Under the DeSantis plan, the GOP could have a 24-4 advantage. DeSantis gave Fox News a map of his proposed new districts, depicting anticipated party control after the midterms.

The format of that map could prove legally fatal to the scheme. The Florida constitution contains anti-gerrymandering "Fair District" provisions that seek to prevent partisan "intent." A Florida Republican consultant who's participated in previous redistricting efforts expressed surprise at the  DeSantis team's use of a color-coded map, telling NBC News, “This is wild. I don’t know how you can argue a red and blue map released from the governor’s office doesn’t show some form of partisan intent.” DeSantis told Fox News that new districts are needed after Florida was "shortchanged" in the 2020 census that determines each state's number of House seats. 

In a memo to lawmakers, DeSantis also signaled his new map will be an attempt to force reconsideration of the Fair Districts provisions in the state Constitution. The language requires the consideration of race when drawing new political lines, which DeSantis says is unconstitutional. - NBC

Some Republicans are uneasy about the proposed districts. To create new GOP opportunities, some Republican-rich neighborhoods have been removed from current Republican districts, amping up the pressure on the incumbents who hold them, at a time when President Trump's low approval ratings and significant Republican disenchantment with the administration present significant headwinds for the party. While many Republicans are still enthusiastic about Trump, some are put off by his initiation of a war of choice on Iran, his opposition to the release of the Epstein files, and his disinterest in imposing fiscal discipline. 

In what may or may not prove to be an omen for November, a March special election brought Republicans and Trump a bruising loss in Florida, as the GOP lost its grip on a reliably red state House seat that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. The Democrat challenger won the race by just over 2 points -- an approximate 11-point swing toward Democrats from the 2024 outcome in the Palm Beach County district.

An appropriate response to Virginia - but what this reveals is both sides have given up on persuasion, recognizing the country is so divided that it's basically impossible. So it's a race to rig the system in your favor, all while speaking in grand terms about "our democracy." https://t.co/96f8Dsfs4O

— FischerKing (@FischerKing64) April 27, 2026

The Florida plan is the latest development in a year-long, nationwide set of electoral-map skirmishes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In the opening salvo of a war started at the urging of President Trump, last August Texas undertook a rare, mid-decade redistricting effort that aspires to flip five current Democrat-held seats into the Republican column this November. California responded with a new map meant to fully negate the Texas impact, flipping five GOP seats. Other states have made tweaks, and in the latest move, Virginians narrowly approved a referendum that would likely see the GOP lose four seats to the Democrats.

The various plans have been subjected to legal challenges. The last few days brought big news on that front. On Monday, the US Supreme Court issued a summary reversal allowing Texas to proceed with its new congressional map for the November 2026 elections. The justices overturned a federal district court’s earlier injunction against the new boundaries. Sunday held good news for Democrats, as a Virginia court rejected a Republican-led challenge to the state's new map.

As the legal battles continue, some see the redistricting war as a clear signal that America is steadily plowing deeper into discord: 

We have reached phase six of Ray Dalio's Big Cycle -- when irreconcilable differences lead to political fracture, war, and then collapse. Arguably, we are already in a soft civil war.

— Kenneth Rapoza (@BRICbreaker) April 27, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 12:40

Breaking The Stalemate

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro strategist at Rabobank

Energy prices continue their ascend –with Brent futures trading above $124/barrel – after media report that the US may try to break the stalemate in the US-Iran war by force. Axios reports that military leaders will brief Trump on potential military options today. Reportedly, the Pentagon is preparing a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iran, likely targeting infrastructure.

Yesterday, Trump still suggested that he would not resume the bombing campaign. The US president said he believes the US blockade of Hormuz is the most effective form of leverage. However, that strategy has so far failed to exert significant concessions from Iran. So, these military strikes –or the mere threat thereof– could be an option if Iran does not budge on the nuclear issue.

The news injects fresh tail risks into the outlook for the war, energy prices, and inflation around the globe. Amidst the unusually high uncertainty about the outlook, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected.

Equally expected was Governor Miran’s dissent, who repeated his preference for a rate cut. However, that was offset by three dissenting votes on the policy statement. Governors Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan “did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

Chair Powell noted that the Committee was in no rush to change the language of the statement. Perhaps, the FOMC decided to wait for the change of guard – and to avoid wobbly messaging. Because once Warsh is appointed as next Fed chair, he will probably try to convince the other FOMC members of the need for additional rate cuts.

Whether Warsh succeeds depends on incoming data, but Powell suggested yesterday that this could be an uphill battle. According to the current Fed chair, the more centrist policymakers were moving towards a more neutral place in thinking about cuts versus hikes. Likewise, their economic assessment now says that inflation is “elevated,” instead of “somewhat elevated.”

We still forecast two rate cuts from a Warsh-led Fed this year. However, as we have flagged before, we think that in the coming months are more likely to drop a rate cut from our forecast than add one.

But the biggest surprise was arguably Powell’s personal decision: the current Fed chair announced that he will continue to stay on as governor for some time after his term as chair ends. This does not mean he will serve out his term as governor; Powell said he will leave when he thinks it’s appropriate – which he seemed to tie to the legal attacks on the central bank. Powell did suggest he would keep a lower profile, and that he would not try to undermine Warsh out of respect for the role of Fed chair.

Returning to energy prices, the fresh highs for Brent this week provide a sobering backdrop to the otherwise better-than-expected April inflation data for the Eurozone countries. Overall, German and Spanish inflation data for April were on the lower end of expectations – although the harmonized inflation measure still ticked 0.1 percentage point higher in Spain.

VAT cuts on petrol have certainly softened the blow. The fact that energy prices were somewhat lower in the first half of April may also have limited energy-driven price pressures for the month. That may be short-lived, given that the price of energy commodities has been on the rise again.

But the miss wasn’t entirely driven by lower energy prices – core inflation, i.e., inflation excluding energy and food, came in a bit lower too. Clothing and recreation –the Spanish bureau of statistics specifically mentions package holidays– were the main reasons why core inflation decelerated compared to the prior month. However, keep in mind that pricing of these goods and services can be quite erratic, due to seasonal shifts and the timing of holidays like Easter. So, this is a mitigating factor for now, but we don’t think that this is a sign of broader disinflation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 12:20

Fidelity, Vanguard Halt Donations To SPLC After Federal Indictment

Fidelity and Vanguard have stopped processing donations to the Southern Poverty Law Center through their donor-advised fund platforms, citing the organization’s recent federal indictment on fraud charges.

The moves came April 29, eight days after a federal grand jury in Alabama indicted the SPLC on 11 counts of wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. Prosecutors allege that between 2014 and 2023 the group secretly funneled more than $3 million in donor funds to individuals affiliated with extremist organizations, including the Ku Klux Klan, Aryan Nations, and the National Socialist Party of America, while misleading donors about the use of the money.

Fidelity Charitable, which oversees more than 350,000 donor-advised accounts, notified customers that the SPLC is no longer an eligible grant recipient, the NY Times reports. “Fidelity Charitable is aware of an ongoing governmental investigation into Southern Poverty Law Center,” the company wrote in an email to a donor. “Consistent with our grant-making standards and practices, the organization is not an eligible grant recipient during the ongoing investigation.”

Vanguard Charitable issued a similar denial when a donor requested a grant. “The organization has had allegations and/or charges brought against them for activities that may call into question their ability to carry out their tax-exempt charitable purpose,” the company stated.

Both sponsors have long-standing rules that allow them to reject grant recommendations when legal issues arise. Fidelity Charitable’s guidelines state that recommendations “might” be declined if an organization “is being investigated for alleged illegal activities or noncharitable activities, such as terrorism, money laundering, hate crimes or fraud,” or if other federal or state agencies are investigating the group.

Vanguard Charitable’s policy is triggered by any criminal indictment from state or federal authorities. A Vanguard spokeswoman said the sponsor makes grants “only to organizations that meet I.R.S. eligibility requirements” and pauses funding “while the matter is pending” when charges are filed. The company does not evaluate the substance of the allegations, she added.

Fidelity Charitable distributed $18.3 billion in grants last year. The SPLC now joins a list of organizations the sponsor has paused under its due-diligence rules.

Context of the Indictment

The Department of Justice announced the indictment April 21. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and other officials described the case as involving deception of donors. The SPLC has denied the allegations, called them politically motivated, and said its payments were part of a legitimate informant program that provided intelligence to law enforcement. The group has filed court motions seeking grand jury transcripts and restrictions on public statements by prosecutors.

The SPLC has not lost its tax-exempt status. Legal experts note that donor-advised fund sponsors can still act on investigations or indictments even without a final conviction or IRS revocation.

Turnabout is Fair Play, Bitch

The move carries extra bite because of what happened three years ago. Back in 2023, the SPLC released a report blasting donor-advised fund sponsors - naming Fidelity and Vanguard among them - for supposedly bankrolling “hateful and extremist beliefs.” The same organization that once criticized these platforms for lax standards now finds itself on the receiving end of their risk controls.(Fidelity notably stopped advertising on ZeroHedge during this period, so we assume they bent the knee). 

Not all donor-advised fund providers have followed the same path. Daffy, a newer platform, continues to allow donations to the SPLC, stating that it generally relies on the IRS’s determination of tax-exempt status. The SPLC remains in good standing with the IRS, the company said. Charles Schwab’s affiliated DAF platform had not issued a public statement as of Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 12:00

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles In America

Authored by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street,

In 27 of the 33 big and expensive cities we track here, mid-tier home prices in March were down from their respective peaks in prior years, led by Austin (-26%), Oakland (-25%), and New Orleans (-19%).

Now also filtering into these mid-tier home prices is the “mansion shortage” in San Francisco, the epicenter of the AI investment bubble. Total employment in the city dropped and the unemployment rate ticked up. But a relatively small number of super-highly paid people get hired by AI companies, and they’re chasing down expensive homes, and there aren’t enough expensive homes for sale, and so they throw easy-come-easy-go money around in the realm of mid-tier homes and drive up their prices. Despite the recent spike in mid-tier home prices, they’re still 11% below the all-time high of 2022. By contrast, prices dipped in San Jose, where mid-tier homes are even more expensive than in San Francisco.

For one of the 33 cities, Boston, the jury was still out for March. April 2025 was the all-time high, and in March 2026, prices were down year-over-year by just a hair, and down by 1% from the high in April, but this is too close to call.

And in five of the 33 cities, prices rose to new highs in March, seasonally adjusted: New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Omaha. But price increases have been much slower than in the crazed free-money days of 2021 and 2022.

In the two years between mid-2020 and mid-2022, all of these cities had seen huge price spikes, some of which qualify for “price explosions”: Austin +62%, Phoenix +60%, Fort Worth +50%, Raleigh +49%, and Sacramento +39%.

Those price explosions were fueled by the Fed’s reckless free-money policies, which included trillions of dollars of purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, which led to the below-3% mortgage rates, even as inflation was raging at the time toward 9%, which led to crazed FOMO buying behavior at the time. Those price gains came on top of the already outsized price gains in the prior years.

The price measurement here is the seasonally adjusted three-month-average mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for single-family homes, condos, and co-ops, released today. Mid-tier means the middle-third by price in each market. The ZHVI is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals.

To qualify for the list of the 33 most splendid housing bubbles, the city must be one of the largest by population and be among the expensive cities where the ZHVI for all mid-tier homes must have been at least $300,000 at some point.

Some cities that are large enough don’t qualify for this list because the ZHVI for all homes never reached $300,000, despite the surge in recent years, such as the cities of New Orleans, Houston, Philadelphia, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, etc.

But Houston, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Omaha are included anyway: Houston and Philadelphia because they’re the fourth-largest and sixth-largest cities in the US; New Orleans because it got within a hair of $300,000 in 2022; and Omaha, because it’s within a hair of $300,000 now, and is thereby the most expensive big city in the center of the US.

The 33 Most Splendid Housing Bubbles.

In the little tables, MoM = month over month; YoY = year-over-year. The column furthest to the right shows the percentage increase “since 2000.” All seasonally adjusted.

See the rest here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 11:40

Caterpillar's Parabolic Rise Continues As AI Boom Supercharges Generator Sales

Hyperscalers are deploying as much as $725 billion in capital expenditures this year, primarily on AI data center buildouts, and it comes as no surprise that Caterpillar posted solid first-quarter earnings, as surging on-site power demand has created a boom for the company's power-generation business.

CAT is one of the world's biggest makers of machines used to build, mine, dig, haul, and power industrial sites. But what has investors focused on in recent quarters is its energy and power unit, which makes diesel and natural-gas engines, generators, turbines, and backup power systems.

CAT reported first-quarter per-share profit excluding one-time items of $5.54, compared with $4.25 a year earlier, beating the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg of $4.63.

The heavy-equipment maker reported that sales at its power and energy unit grew by 23% year over year, largely driven by strong demand for on-site power generation at data centers.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS $5.54 vs. $4.25 y/y, estimate $4.63 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• EPS $5.47 vs. $4.20 y/y

Revenue $17.42 billion, +22% y/y, estimate $16.24 billion

• Financial segment revenue $942 million, +8.2% y/y, estimate $895.8 million 

• Machinery, Power & Energy revenue $16.47 billion, +23% y/y, estimate $15.41 billion

• Adjusted operating income $3.13 billion, estimate $2.74 billion

• Machinery, Power & Energy operating income $3.00 billion, +19% y/y, estimate $2.63 billion

• Financial Products operating income $237 million, +18% y/y, estimate $225.3 million 

R&D expenses $537 million, +12% y/y, estimate $530.2 million

Backlog $62.7 billion

CAT shares are up 5% in premarket trading in New York. 

CAT shares have gone parabolic as news stories for data center power have erupted in recent years. 

Dec Mullarkey, managing director at SLC Management, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "Caterpillar is certainly benefiting from the AI buildout," adding, "And given there is no letup in related capex, which has been confirmed in this earnings season, Caterpillar will continue to be an essential player in all that."

On Wednesday, Alphabet and Meta Platforms both raised their full-year capex guidance, while Microsoft reported its first estimate of spending through the end of December, matching Alphabet's $190 billion. Amazon reported $200 billion in spending this year, as the 2026 capex spending forecast by hyperscalers exceeds $700 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Soaring capex spending by hyperscalers this year only suggests increased demand for CAT's power-generation systems.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 11:30

Political Violence And The Willful Self-Deception Of The Left

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

Violence motivated by political differences has emerged as a defining, if alarming, feature of 21st -century American civil life. Neither side in our nation’s increasingly dangerous ideological divide has a monopoly. But one side, the Democratic Party and its allies, refuses to acknowledge the increase in mayhem from the left.

Would-be Trump assassin Cole Tomas Allen

This is true even in the face of the campus assassination of beloved conservative activist Charlie Kirk – or the very public attack against a televised banquet featuring the president of the United States in a ballroom room full of politicians and journalists.

On Sunday, well after authorities released Cole Tomas Allen’s anti-Trump administration screed, former President Barack Obama posted on X that the attacker’s motive remained unclear. Actually, Allen’s writings made his radical leftist views perfectly clear, along with his rage against conservatives and President Trump himself.

This brought to mind ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel’s stubborn insistence that Tyler Robinson, the man arrested for shooting Charlie Kirk was part of “the MAGA gang.” He wasn’t, of course. His own mother told investigators that her son, who was in a relationship with a gay man transitioning to female, had “become more pro-gay and trans-rights oriented.”

But willful self-deception has become a default position for liberals, who have convinced themselves for years that political violence is the province of the far right. It might still be, as some claim that might be the case of one Minnesota’s couple murder and another wounded in their homes, though the murderer had hundreds of  “No Kings” flyers and was appointed to advisory boards by two different Democrat governors. But the arson and violence that accompanied many of the George Floyd riots; the Lafayette Square riot near the White House, where more than 150 law enforcement officers were injured; the fire-bombings and attacks on pro-life facilities following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision; the plot to kidnap and kill  Justice Brett Kavanaugh; the 2024 ambush murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson – all came from the left.

On Sunday, CNN’s Dana Bash asked Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, whose own vitriolic rhetoric has been aimed at the president, whether he had any second thoughts in the wake of third assassination attempt against Trump. Raskin has repeatedly labeled Trump as “authoritarian” and exhibiting “fascism” and declared that Trump wants “to be a dictator.”

Raskin seemed surprised by the question and responded by doubling down: “The authoritarianism like we saw on display in Minneapolis where two of our citizens were gunned down in streets simply for exercising their First Amendment rights. Renee Good, Alex Pretti. And others have died in custody.”

This response not only ducked the question about whether elected Democrats’ intemperate rhetoric is spurring fringe Americans to violence, it also misstated the facts. Renee Good struck an officer with her car and ignored verbal orders from an officer. Alex Pretti put himself between officers and people they were trying to arrest, disobeyed orders from officers to stop, got into a physical confrontation with officers, and was carrying a gun.

Raskin isn’t alone. Democrat after Democrat seems incapable of discussing whether their own incendiary rhetoric has caused violence. After Saturday night’s frightening attack at the Washington Hilton, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries was asked about his comments urging Democrats to “maximum warfare” in the gerrymandering battles. “I don't give a damn about the criticism,” he said. “Get lost.”

Even more bizarrely, Jeffries invoked the fire-bombing of the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion while Josh Shapiro and his family were home and said Republicans should get their own house in order. But Shapiro’s attacker, who pleaded guilty, cited left-wing talking points about Gaza and his motivation.

This kind of confusion comes even from those who should know better. A frequently cited source used by the media to try to show that most violence is from the “right” is the Anti-Defamation League (ADL). Its latest annual report claims, “This is the third year in a row that right-wing extremists have been connected to all identified extremist-related killings.” According to the ADL, between 2022 and 2024 there were 34 so-called “right-wing extremists” murderers, with 23 of them (68%) carried out by white supremacists. They say those attacks took 61 lives.

Claiming that all the extremist murders are by “right-wingers” sounds dramatic, and the ADL report received extensive uncritical news coverage in media outlets including CNN, The Economist, and PBS. But it’s untrue. None of the cases listed by the ADL involved a right-winger murdering a political target.

Serious questions surround how the ADL defines “right-wing extremists.” Does it always classify all white supremacists as “right-wing”? Does it automatically label every mass murderer who targets a gay bar as a “right-winger”? At the ADL, the answer appears to be yes.

Consider Payton Gendron, the 2022 Buffalo supermarket shooter who murdered 10 black shoppers. The ADL labeled him a right-wing extremist because of his racism. However, his own writings complicate that characterization. Gendron said he hated black people because he believed they had too many children, which he thought harmed the environment. In his manifesto, he identified himself as an “eco-fascist national socialist” and even called himself part of the “mild-moderate authoritarian left.”

Or take Anderson Lee Aldrich, who murdered five people at Club Q, a gay bar in Colorado Springs, in 2022. The ADL classified him as a right-wing extremist because he targeted LGBT people. Yet Aldrich identified as nonbinary and used they/them pronouns – facts the ADL left out of its framing. Those identifiers are hardly the hallmarks of right-wing ideology, especially when the ADL itself emphasizes the “LGBTQ+” nature of the venue.

Meanwhile, the ADL conveniently leaves other mass shooters off its list entirely:

• In 2022, transgender shooter Audrey Elizabeth Hale attacked the Covenant School in Nashville, Tennessee, and murdered six people. In her writings, she raged against “white privilege,” vowed she wanted to “kill all you little crackers,” and resented the wealth of the students at the school. The Nashville Police report also noted her support for gun control.
• Robert Crimo murdered seven people in Highland Park, Illinois, in 2022. He made no secret of his hostility toward Trump.
• In 2023, Connor Sturgeon murdered five people in Louisville, Kentucky. He had previously praised the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and posted sharp criticism of police violence and Donald Trump.
• That same year, Kimbrady Carriker murdered five people in Philadelphia. Carriker supported Black Lives Matter, wore women’s clothes, and called for defunding the police.

These crimes claimed a total of 38 lives. Yet the ADL claims that people on the left committed none.

The ADL also makes other questionable assumptions. The Aryan Brotherhood, a white gang with roots in the California prison system, is certainly racist, but it has no political ideology beyond racism and making money through racketeering, drug trafficking, and murder. None of the Aryan Brotherhood murders the ADL cites were politically motivated. Most involved disputes with other gang members, or in one case, the killing of a two-year-old girl the perpetrator had sexually assaulted, and in another, the murder of an 11-year-old girl living on the same property. Removing these cases cuts six murders from the ADL’s tally.

Three of the murderers were neo-Nazis, who murdered one person each. They are again classified as right-wingers based on their being racist even though they are “national socialists.” But again, none of these murders had anything to do with anyone’s political views, with one murdering his aunt.

Other cases are listed as right-wing because the perpetrators held antisemitic views. But given the recent anti-Israel riots, those views can hardly be considered right-wing. One of the killers, tied to QAnon and anti-vaccine beliefs, murdered his wife. Another case involved a man who beat his five-year-old to death. Why do any of these killings qualify as a political murder?

If we exclude the Payton Gendron and Anderson Lee Aldrich shootings, along with the Aryan Brotherhood murders – but still include neo-Nazis and other debatable cases – the numbers show roughly as many “left-wing” murders as “right-wing” ones. The media treats the ADL’s selective definitions and exclusions seriously only because they support a political narrative rather than reflect the full reality.

Regardless of how one counts the cases, left-wing violence remains a serious problem – undoubtedly the most serious.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 11:00

California Gas Tops $6 As "Big Prices Hike Expected" Across Great Lakes Region

The statewide average for 87-octane gasoline in California has topped $6 a gallon as the Iran-war-driven global energy crunch ripples across the West Coast, the hardest-hit U.S. region. Meanwhile, the national average remains above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, hovering around $4.30, according to AAA data as of Thursday morning. It’s clear that bad ‘green’ energy policies by unhinged, left-wing politicians in the Golden State have left the state’s energy complex in a total mess, with no buffers.

"That’s the highest since October 2023. No other state has ever surpassed the $6-a-gallon mark. At the outset of the war, the price in the Golden State was $4.64 a gallon," Bloomberg wrote in a note earlier.

Beyond gasoline, diesel prices in California now average a staggering $7.48 per gallon, up from $4.98 one year ago.

On the national level, gasoline prices continue to climb, now at $4.30 and remaining above the politically sensitive $4 level for one month.

Also on the national level, diesel prices - the fuel that keeps the economy humming - are around $5.49 and have yet to reach their previous high of approximately $5.69 in early April.

West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude benchmark, jumped to nearly $110.50 a barrel overnight, while Brent, the global benchmark, topped $126. This spike in oil prices was due to continued uncertainty over a near-term peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Trump laying the groundwork for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, according to MSM reports.

GasBuddy head analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on X, "WTI and Brent pushing higher after Trump says to expect prolonged blockade on the Strait," adding, "Expecting big gas price hikes as early as noon for MI, IN, IL, WI, and perhaps OH."

With the national average for gasoline above $4, we have already detailed emerging consumer behavior shifts at gas stations and convenience stores. Actual demand destruction should arrive north of $5 gas.

Read:

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Let's not forget we've outlined how the global energy crisis ripples across the world, already impacting Asia and Europe, and for the U.S., will affect California the hardest (read why).

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 10:40

Senator Finds More Evidence Federal Officials Evaded FOIA

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. senator and his team say they have uncovered additional evidence that federal officials worked to evade requests made under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) speaks during an interview with The Epoch Times at his office in the Hart Senate office building in Washington on March 21, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Several emails obtained by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) showed personnel with the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were aware of FOIA requests and sought to evade them. FOIA enables people to request records from the government. It requires officials to retain and produce requested records, subject to certain exemptions.

In a Nov. 26, 2022, missive, Allison Lale, a medical officer with the CDC, asked a colleague about receiving safety analyses of COVID-19 vaccination from the FDA.

Pedro Moro, a CDC epidemiologist, responded. “I think that because of the FOIAs we may have asked FDA to stop sending these weekly data mining outputs,” Moro wrote.

“Oh interesting,” Lale said. She added that during calls for a CDC-managed program, “we used to just verbally mention” that certain terms had not triggered safety signals, or signs vaccines were causing problems.

“But we could also leave it out if that [sic] this creates more hassle,” she added.

In a separate email chain, FDA officials were told by an FDA vaccine safety analytic expert, Dr. Ana Szarfman, that the approach they were using to analyze the safety of COVID-19 vaccines was faulty. The information sparked a long discussion, during which officials considered asking the expert to contact an outside expert on the matter.

“Before we potentially reach out to Ana, we should meet internally - many considerations not suited to email...” David Menschik, an FDA official who distributed the data mining reports, wrote on April 15, 2021.

“Sounds good,” Bethany Baer, another FDA worker, responded. “Happy to meet and discuss anytime open on my calendar.”

A screenshot of an email chain obtained by Sen. Ron Johnson. Screenshot by The Epoch Times

Johnson, the chairman of the House Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said during an April 29 hearing that the emails served as “additional evidence of how federal officials avoided creating a paper trail to prevent transparency and public disclosure.”

A top CDC official’s emails were missing, the government told Johnson in 2025.

A grand jury charged Dr. David Morens, a former official with the National Institutes of Health, a component of the Department of Health and Human Services, this week with conspiring to destroy some records and conceal others, after he allegedly wrote, in missives obtained by journalists and Johnson, that said he wanted to use a personal email address to evade FOIA.

In one email cited by prosecutors, Morens said in 2020 that he wanted to “keep this correspondnce [sic] off of USG emails for obvious reasons, so am sending from gmail.” He added later, “I am under Multiple FOIAs already.”

In another, a co-conspirator told Morens that he was using Morens’s Gmail address “to keep you out of the FoIA target.”

Fauci advisor David Morens admits in an email that he "learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after i am foia'd but before the search starts" https://t.co/sn6hvwDF7R pic.twitter.com/1MroXRWNQO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

The National Institutes of Health declined to provide a comment on the charges.

Despite efforts to conceal, the subcommittee acquired the emails he just released thanks to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s responsiveness to subpoenas, Johnson said.

Neither the CDC nor the FDA, nor their parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services, responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Lale, Moro, Baer, and Menschik still work for the government. Lale, Moro, and Baer did not return inquiries by publication time. A query to Menschik returned an automated message saying he is on extended leave.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 10:20

Japan Intervened In FX Market To Buy Yen

With Brent surging to a new post war high overnight, rising as high as $125 on fear of an imminent resumption of hostilities in Iran, which dragged yields higher, and also pushed the USDJPY above 160 for the first time since late March, overnight Japan made clear - again - it wouldn't take it any more, with the usual round of jawboning.

• *KATAYAMA: WE ARE MONITORING FX MARKET WHILE YOU ARE ON HOLIDAY
• *KATAYAMA: WE ARE NEARING TIMING TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX

Then

• *MIMURA: WE ARE NEARING TIME TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX
• *MIMURA: THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING BEFORE ACTION

Then

• *JAPAN PM TAKAICHI HOLDS PHONE TALKS WITH IRAN PRESIDENT: KYODO
• JAPAN PM TAKAICHI: I HAVE WORKED TO ENSURE PASSAGE OF JAPANESE-RELATED VESSEL THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ" RTRS

And while the market had grown used to constant jawboning by Japanese officials, this time Japan finally put its money where its mouth was, and with the USDJPY extending gains after all this verbal diarrhea, at precisely 4am ET, or just as Japan was closing (as we head into a long weekend, with most of Asia off tomorrow and Japan kicking off with golden week starting Monday to Wednesday 6th May), the USDJPY tumbled sharply, and then continued to slide for the next 4 hours, plunging as much as 500 pips to a session low of 155.57.

The move which strengthened the yen by the most since 2023...

... immediately prompted speculation of intervention by Japan's authorities, especially since in recent weeks Japan had been jawboning not only against the yen but also oil prices, which mysteriously also tumbled from a multi year high.

There were early signs that Japan was indeed involved, with some 57BN in USDJPY volumes this morning, far above normal average. Note, previous intervention volumes in 2022 and 2024, EBS volumes had gotten up to around 70BN (for 29apr24 and 21oct22). On Friday 23 January 2026 on US rate check day – EBS volumes got to around 50BN.

And while normally we would have to wait days if not weeks for confirmation that the BOJ was in the market, today mercifully we got confirmation early on when the Nikkei reported that the Japanese Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan carried out exchange rate intervention to buy yen and sell dollars on Thursday. A government official confirmed to Nikkei fact of intervention in an interview with the Nikkei.

"The government and the Bank of Japan intervened again, buying yen, causing the yen to surge against the dollar to the 155 yen target", the Nikkei reported.

There was no immediate comment on whether the BOJ was also intervening in oil, but it would not be surprising if they did (although it would be a first).

The problem for Japan, and the reason why the MOF/BOJ had held out for this long before intervening, is that by doing so they have once again blown their load, so to speak, and now the USDJPY has a clear path to rise even higher - our target is now 170 and potentially much higher since the BOJ so stubbornly refuses to raise rates, which means that either the yen or JGBs will have to be the buffer for Japan's surging inflation. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 10:02

In Major Victory For Gun Owners, ATF Unleashes 34-Rule Reform Package - Brace Rule Dead

In what can only be described as one of the biggest single-day victories for the Second Amendment in decades, the DOJ and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives dropped a bombshell yesterday: a landmark package of 34 regulatory actions designed to slash red tape, repeal overreaches, modernize outdated rules, and refocus the agency on actual criminals instead of law-abiding Americans.

The announcement, made by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and newly confirmed ATF Director Robert Cekada, marks the culmination of the "New Era of Reform" launched in 2025 under President Trump's Executive Order 14206, "Protecting Second Amendment Rights." Officials described it as the most comprehensive overhaul of ATF regulations in the agency's history.

"This Department of Justice is ending the weaponization of federal authority against law-abiding gun owners," Blanche declared. Cekada added that the reforms ensure regulations are "clear, legally sound, and narrowly tailored," with enforcement now zeroed in on "willful violators and criminal actors, not inadvertent compliance issues by responsible owners and licensees."

"The Second Amendment is not a second-class right." 

The Big Wins That Matter Most to Gun Owners

The package is broken into clear categories that read like a 2nd Amendment wish list (how did we fall so far?):

Repeals & Rollbacks (The Headlines)

• 11P: The hated 2023 Stabilizing Brace (Pistol Brace) Rule is officially being rescinded. Multiple courts had already blocked it - now it's being formally buried.
• 27P: The 2024 "Engaged in the Business" rule - the one that tried to turn occasional private sellers and gun-show participants into federal licensees - is being rescinded/revised.
• The 2024 machine gun definition tweak following the Supreme Court's Garland v. Cargill decision is finalized.
• The Youth Handgun Safety Act notification requirement for FFLs is on the chopping block.

Modernization

• 01P & 07P: A modernized Form 4473 and authorization for full electronic recordkeeping by FFLs. Whether 01P will prevent future admins from enacting another "zero tolerance" rule is the question.
• 08P: Defined retention periods for transaction records (public comment invited on the exact length). After the period expires, those forms can finally be destroyed - a direct blow to any notion of a permanent "billion-record registry."

Real Burden Reduction for NFA Owners & FFLs

• 03P: Streamlined interstate transport for NFA items. If you're traveling for less than 365 days, you file the form but no longer have to wait for ATF approval. For basically forever if you wanted to take a SBR/SBS or Machinegun outside of your state of residence you had to file a 5320.20 form and get permission from ATF to take the thing out of state. Now, if you're gone for less than 365 days you can just file the form, and you don't need to wait for approval once the rule takes effect. great for people who live in states like maryland and want to shoot at a range in VA or PA. 
• 13P & 15P: Joint spousal registration of NFA firearms and elimination of the CLEO notification requirement.
• 18P: Updated FOPA travel protections to clearly cover reasonable stops (hotels, gas, food) during lawful interstate transport.
• 19P: Updated rules for dealer machine gun sales samples (direction still being finalized).

Clarifications & Import Relief

• Training/simunition rounds are clarified as not "ammunition" under the GCA - making them easier to acquire and use.
• 04F: Major update to the Proscribed Countries List under the Arms Export Control Act. This lifts the long-standing de facto ban on importing firearms from most former Soviet-bloc countries (Russia remains restricted), finally allowing collectors and importers to legally bring in quality Eastern European and historical firearms again.
• Dozens of technical clean-ups on dual-use barrels, NFA serialization during conversions, straw-purchase language, "willfully" definitions, and more - all aimed at reducing ambiguity and litigation.

In total: 26 NPRMs (open for 90-day public comment), 6 Final Rules, 1 Direct Final Rule, and 1 Interim Final Rule.

The changes untangle years of ATF rules seemingly written to create confusion and trap honest people. Zero-tolerance enforcement hammered FFLs over minor paperwork errors. The brace rule turned millions of legal pistols into potential felonies overnight. The engaged-in-the-business rule threatened to criminalize private sales. Recordkeeping felt like it was building a de facto national registry.

This package doesn't repeal the NFA or abolish the ATF - but it does the next best thing: it starts rolling back the worst abuses, modernizes the system for the 21st century, and tells agents to go after gang members and traffickers instead of grandma's 4473 typo.

FFLs get lower compliance costs. NFA owners get practical relief on travel and registration. Importers get more options. Everyone gets clearer rules and the promise that old records won't live forever.

How We Got Here

This didn't happen in a vacuum. While the official rollout highlighted partnership with industry groups like the National Shooting Sports Foundation (which was on hand at the signing) and the Second Amendment Foundation (whose Executive Director attended and praised the effort), the groundwork was laid by years of relentless pushback from the broader gun rights community.

Gun Owners of America played an especially important indirect role. Through aggressive litigation - most notably as a lead plaintiff in the Texas v. ATF case - GOA helped deliver a crushing legal defeat to the engaged-in-the-business rule. Just 13 days before yesterday's announcement, the DOJ formally surrendered its appeal in that case, clearing the path for the rescission now included in the package. GOA's long-standing demands for defined record retention, an end to gotcha enforcement, brace rule repeal, and NFA simplifications aligned closely with many of the reforms now being implemented.

In other words: the courtroom victories created the political space for these regulatory changes.

Meanwhile, the National Firearm Industry Trade Association (NSSF) hailed the landmark rulemaking package as a massive win - calling it "the result of months of NSSF working closely with the ATF and DOJ to identify and fix punitive regulations published during the Biden administration, when the ATF was used as a political weapon to force policies intended to hobble the firearm industry and infringe on Second Amendment rights."

And the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) said in a statement "For far too long, ATF rules were a creeping fog of regulatory malarky, seemingly intended to create confusion for the gun community and chill the exercise of their rights. Today’s announcement shows that the current administration intends to help clear that fog. We are hopeful this new batch of rules does just that."

Many of the biggest items are still NPRMs, so the 90-day public comment period is critical. Interested parties can reach out to Regulations.gov with support for the strongest possible versions - especially on record retention lengths and the machine gun sample rule.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 10:00

Education Department Probes Stanford Over Alleged Racial Discrimination

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights has initiated an investigation into Stanford University to determine whether one of its programs is racially discriminatory and violates Title VI.

Stanford University in Palo Alto, Calif., on July 31, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, national origin, and color in educational programs that receive financial assistance from the federal government. At issue is Stanford’s National Board Resource Center’s (NBRC’s) program that “helps future teachers who ‘identify as a person of color’ receive National Board Certifications,” the department said in an April 29 statement.

National Board Certification is a professional certification issued that recognizes accomplished teachers. Stanford’s NBRC offers support for teachers seeking this certification.

The Office for Civil Rights noted that the California Teachers Association (CTA) has partnered with Stanford in the NBRC program and positioned the initiative as seeking to boost diversity among certified teachers.

In a 2022 report, the CTA said that selected teachers from the “Black, Indigenous and People of Color (BIPOC) Cohort” receive “full funding for all certification support services offered by Stanford NBRC.”

The NBRC program also provides such individuals with support in accessing funding sources to cover the costs of certification, including receiving funding through the California National Board Incentive Grant program.

In the statement, the Office for Civil Rights said the investigation into Stanford will assess whether the university’s NBRC program discriminates on the basis of race.

“Instead of helping students achieve their goals through merit, Stanford appears to be conditioning access to National Board Certification programs based on skin color. It is unconscionable that an institution which claims to be a pinnacle of educational excellence would deny opportunities based on race,” Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights Kimberly Richey said.

“If the allegations are true, Stanford is engaged in discrimination – pure and simple. The Trump Administration will always fight against discrimination to protect Americans’ rights under the law. All students, regardless of their skin color, should have an equal opportunity to succeed.”

Stanford University said it was meeting obligations required ‌under ⁠civil rights laws and “maintaining an environment free of prohibited discrimination” and that NBRC “is open to any primary or secondary teacher, regardless of their race, who is pursuing the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards certification.”

Stanford University in Palo Alto, Calif., on July 31, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The university added that the cohort-based program “is not accepting new teachers and ​is being sunsetted.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Stanford for further comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

‘Bringing Back America’s Golden Age’

In an April 6 statement, the Education Department said that under the Trump administration, more than 300 colleges and universities have so far eliminated diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) requirements, shut down DEI offices, and removed diversity statements from their hiring practices.

Such institutions include Stanford University, Harvard University, Purdue University, Rutgers University, the University of Iowa, the University of Southern California, and the Ohio State University.

According to the department, just over a year ago, colleges and universities were more focused on DEI than on ensuring students were prepared for success after graduating.

“Institutions required DEI statements from faculty and held segregated affinity graduation ceremonies for students. Academic standards fell, admissions were skewed to favor race over merit, and students graduated with a massive pile of debt and degrees that led to no job prospects,” the department said.

“Today, institutions of higher education are changing the game because President Trump is bringing back America’s Golden Age — shifting the culture and restoring our nation’s institutions to greatness.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 09:40

"Low Hire, No Fire": Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Plunge To Record Low

We have gone from a "low hire, low fire" economy to "AI chatbot hire, no fire." We joke, but really there is no other way to explain what is going on here: this morning the Dept of Labor reported that in the week ended April 25, jobless claims fell 26k to 189k (from an upward revised 215k), compared with median est. 212k. And... are you sitting down... this was the lowest weekly jobless print on record.

With the est. range at 205k-228k, today's print was not only far below the lowest estimate, but a 6 sigma miss to estimates.

While one can normally blame this on seasonal adjustments, the unadjusted number also plunged to just 179K in the last week.

Continuing claims also fell 23k to 1.785m in the week ending April 18. This was the lowest since early 2024.

Those wondering what was behind the unprecedented drop in claims, the answer appears to be a crash in New York State initial claims.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 09:28

Heavily Shorted Hertz Soars On Uber Robotaxi Deal

Heavily shorted shares of rental-car company Hertz are soaring in premarket trading after the company announced a partnership with Uber Technologies to scale both autonomous robotaxi and driver-led rideshare operations.

Hertz’s Oro Mobility unit will be used as a fleet-management system for Uber’s next-generation mobility network of autonomous robotaxis. This means Oro will support the critical operating layer: charging, maintenance, repairs, cleaning, depot staffing, and vehicle logistics.

"Through its partnerships with Uber, Oro will deliver scalable operational and maintenance services across both autonomous and driver-led operations in key U.S. markets, reflecting the breadth of the companies' collaboration across multiple mobility models," Hertz wrote in a press release.

Oro will support Uber’s autonomous robotaxi program using Lucid vehicles equipped with Nuro AV technology. The new service is expected to launch in the San Francisco Bay Area later this year, with possible expansion next year.

What the Hertz-Uber partnership entails:

Autonomous Robotaxi Fleet Management

Oro will support Uber's autonomous robotaxi program of Lucid vehicles equipped with Nuro AV technology, providing day-to-day vehicle asset management, including charging, maintenance, repairs, cleaning, and depot staffing. Services are expected to launch in the San Francisco Bay Area later this year, as Hertz and Uber explore expansion opportunities in 2027.

Driver-Led Fleet Management

Oro has also partnered with Uber to offer strategic fleet services on the Uber platform, utilizing a fleet of high-quality, well‑maintained vehicles operated by Oro‑employed drivers. The model better enables Uber to meet increasing rider demand with a seamless customer experience, while demonstrating Hertz's ability to deliver turnkey fleet solutions at scale. Following a successful pilot in Atlanta last year, Oro is now also active on the Uber platform in Los Angeles and San Francisco, with Northern New Jersey expected to launch this spring.

"This partnership with Uber establishes Oro as an integrated solution that connects demand with scalable fleet management services. Through this work, we're deepening our capabilities across diverse mobility use cases, and positioning Hertz to play a significant role as the industry evolves," Hertz CEO Gil West wrote in a press release. 

Andrew Macdonald, President and COO of Uber, stated, "Partnering with Hertz's Oro Mobility will help us continue to bring the best autonomous technology onto the Uber platform and accelerate the transition to a hybrid network in which both driver-led and autonomous rideshare operations can scale and serve communities reliably and efficiently." 

The news sent Hertz shares flying in premarket trading, up more than 17%.

Bloomberg data shows Hertz shares are 49% short, equivalent to about 59 million shares. Days to cover stand at around 4.2 days.

Is the squeeze on?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 09:20

Core PCE Rises Most In 3 Years; Savings Rate Tumbles As Spending Far Outpaces Income

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.3% MoM in January (as expected), a dip from the 0.4% sequential increase in February, with YoY rising by 3.2% (also as expected), slightly higher than the 3.0% in Feb. That is the highest annual increase in Core PCE since Nov 2023. 

The headline PCE jumped notably more, as expected since it includes non-core items like energy and food, rising 0.7% MoM (as expected) driving prices up 3.5% YoY, also as expected, from 2.8% and the highest since May 2023.

Taking a closer look at the headline print shows a surge in non-durable goods, largely the result of soaring gasoline prices.

On the other hand, core PCE was far more muted, with the monthly increase actually the lowest in three months, even as the annual increase keeps mounting.

Finally, supercore PCE was also muted, indicating that the energy price spillover into the broader economy is taking place but not as fast as some feared.

For those worried about the impact of crude oil's recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears - somehow - that PCE's Energy component has already front-run a lot of the move...

Higher prices were met with higher incomes and higher spending (rising in line with one another for a change): personal income rose 0.6%, double the expected 0.3% and a surge from the 0.0% printed last month. Spending meanwhile rose 0.9%, as expected, and also higher from last month's 0.6%.

Ominously, spending growth continues to outpace income growth

And since spending rose more than income once again (as wages are not keeping up with income), the savings rate just tikced down to a fresh 4 years low.

And with rate-cut expectations in free fall - especially after yesterday's hawkish Fed - this latest data will do nothing to support a dovish take going forward (unless oil crashes the global economy and AI takes over all jobs).

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 09:04

Those Big, Beautiful Bonds

Authored by Robert Aro via the Mises Institute,

The U.S. Government sells debt on a revolving door basis, yet most people aren’t aware of the mechanism by which this is done. Luckily, ZeroHedge covers the debt auction results, which allows us to articulate one of the structural problems in the Federal Reserve system. As reported last week:

The week’s lone coupon auction priced at 1pm when the Treasury sold $13 BN in 20Y paper, in a solid if not stellar auction.

Deciphering the trader talk in the article, the Treasury took on an additional $13 billion in debt that is repayable in 20 years, paying an annual interest rate of 4.883% (approximately $635 million a year).

A 2.68 bid-to-cover ratio means that for every $1 of debt issued, there were $2.68 in bids, suggesting a healthy market appetite. Only so many entities can lend billions of dollars at a time; here are the three who took the auction:

• Direct bidders (institutional money like pension funds) took 22.9%;
• Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took the brunt at 67.4%;
• Primary Dealers (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, etc.) held just 9.7%.

Since primary dealers are mandated to buy, and since the Fed will buy from them, the free-market price and demand for debt remains a mystery. Therefore, without the Fed’s anti-capitalist intervention, demand would be lower and yields would be higher.

A $13 billion debt still seems incomprehensible, so let’s assume you had $100,000 today and had to keep it in a cash equivalent for the next two decades. What would you choose? If you bought that Treasury, you’ll be earning 4.883% interest each year, and in 2046 you’ll get your principal back in full.

Whether rates go up or down, neither outcome will be pleasant, leaving you, the bondholder, caught between the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable.

The Unthinkable: Should the market demand a higher yield, or should the Fed raise rates, your 4.883% return will no longer be a good deal. If you sell, you’ll take a loss. On a societal level, for each 1% increase in rates, the interest burden on the $39 trillion debt climbs toward an additional $390 billion annually as the debt rolls over. At some point, the interest alone begins to choke the life out of the economy. If there is any consolation, maybe this fights “price inflation,” but even that’s uncertain, and prices could still skyrocket along with rates.

The Unimaginable: U.S. politicians find a way to balance the books and take on less debt… but in reality, history has shown this to be impossible. In all likelihood, the Fed will have to keep rates low and the debt spiral manageable by increasing its bond purchases and the money supply, i.e., inflation in the traditional and honest sense. In this scenario, your 4.883% bond is worth more on paper, but your currency will likely be worth a lot less.

The Fed faces an impossible task. To abstain from intervention is to allow high interest rates to compound on an unrepayable debt. To intervene is to flood the system with debased currency. Either way, the bondholder is the casualty, and the capital structure is the cost.

Feel free to sit with your 4.883% bond and wait for the Fed to make a move. In the end, it almost doesn’t matter whether rates go up or down; you’re simply watching society erode, one basis point at a time. The interest rate is the symptom; the debt mechanism is the disease.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 09:00

Russia Says UAE's 'OPECxit' Won't Spark Immediate Price War

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, quoted by the Russian news agency Interfax, downplayed fears that the UAE's planned OPEC exit will trigger an immediate oil price war and race to the bottom. 

"In the current situation, what kind of price war can there be when there is a shortage in the market?" Novak said, adding with the Strait of Hormuz remaining all but closed, "a huge amount of oil isn't reaching the market today, and demand is significantly higher than supply."

Novak said Russia and Saudi Arabia have yet to discuss the UAE's decision to leave OPEC, effective Friday. He reiterated that Moscow has no plans to leave the OPEC+ alliance.

Novak's core message is that the global market is supply-starved as the U.S.-Iran war chokes energy flows through the Hormuz waterway. Large volumes of crude remain physically constrained, keeping global demand above available supply and limiting Abu Dhabi's ability to flood the market in the near term.

However, once Washington and Tehran strike a peace deal and reopen the Hormuz chokepoint, that's where Abu Dhabi will be able to ramp up production outside OPEC's quota system. That would inject a fresh wave of supply worldwide, weaken the oil cartel's ability to set a proper price floor, and raise downside risk for Brent once Gulf flows normalize.

JPMorgan analyst Ian Mitchell told clients earlier this week: 

The UAE has announced it will leave OPEC. Flat crude prices will remain driven by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, but this development will likely mean medium-term prices are lower than they would have been otherwise, though there are many moving parts."

Mitchell added:

"Better too early than too late when it comes to taking profits on EU oil equity longs."

We agree with Mitchell's assessment:

Once the war is over there will be an oil pumpathon free for all. https://t.co/xcm6jH7cWL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

UBS analyst Henri Patricot told clients a very similar message:

"Limited impact near-term; downside risk for oil prices medium-term." 

Overnight Brent price action commentary from UBS analyst Dominic Ellis:

Brent was briefly over $126/b this morning, and has settled above $124/b, on media reports that President Donald Trump will be briefed Thursday on new military options to pressure Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

This follows a move up on Wednesday as Trump publicly acknowledged the likelihood of an extended blockade of the Strait. In its World Economic Outlook a couple weeks ago, the IMF cut its base case for global growth for FY2026 to 3.1% from 3.4%, but this was predicated on a rapid resolution of the Iran situation and a quick resumption of energy flows. I'd argue we're moving towards more bearish scenarios which the market has yet to price in.

Readers can read the full note here: "OPECxit: JPM, UBS React To UAE's Shock Departure From Oil Cartel."

Professional subscribers can read JPM and UBS notes here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 08:40

ECB Holds Rates At 2%, As Expected, With Stagflation Looming

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, with officials signaling they need more time to assess the extent of the Iran war’s jolt to the economy. The deposit rate was left at 2%, where it’s been since June 2025 and in line with the predictions of all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB offered no guidance on future decisions, reiterating it will act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.

In the statement, the committee cited the usual stagflationary cocktail as cause for concern, namely upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified. As usual, they emphasize the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach and added that their assessment of the inflation outlook and its risks, will be informed by incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

“The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified,” the Governing Council said on Thursday in a statement.  The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty.”

Commenting on the decision, DB's Chief European Economist Mark Wall said that "the accompanying statement flags an intensification of risks. These are symmetric: upside risks to inflation, downside risks to growth. There remains a sense of calm confidence, with references to the resilience of the economy in recent quarters and longer-term inflation expectations remaining well-anchored. But there is also a sense of rising concern the longer the conflict in the Middle East continues. Overall, this is a statement that does not pre-commit the ECB to hiking in June. But it does not stop the ECB from hiking in June either."

Here are the statement highlights:

RATES:

• ECB Governing Council holds three key interest rates unchanged
• Deposit facility rate held at 2.00% (exp. 2.00%)
• Main refinancing operations rate held at 2.15% (exp. 2.15%)
• Marginal lending facility rate held at 2.40% (exp. 2.40%)

GUIDANCE:

• ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path
• Governing Council to follow data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to policy stance
• Interest rate decisions to be based on inflation outlook and risks, incoming economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and strength of monetary policy transmission
• Governing Council stands ready to adjust all instruments within its mandate to ensure inflation stabilises at 2% in the medium term
• Transmission Protection Instrument available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to monetary policy transmission

INFLATION:

• Upside risks to inflation have intensified
• Euro area entered current period with inflation at around the 2% target
• Shorter-horizon inflation expectations have moved up significantly
• Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored
• War in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation
• Longer the war continues and energy prices remain high, the stronger the likely impact on broader inflation

ECONOMY:

• Downside risks to growth have intensified
• War in the Middle East weighing on economic sentiment
• Euro area economy has shown resilience over recent quarters
• Implications of war for medium-term inflation and activity will depend on intensity and duration of energy price shock and scale of indirect and second- round effects

While policymakers have stressed since the conflict broke out that they’ll act decisively if inflation shows signs of spiraling, data available so far haven’t convinced them. The ECB isn’t alone in holding fire: The Federal Reserve sat tight on Wednesday and the Bank of England decided against a move earlier on Thursday.

The ECB is also mindful of the blow to output, with data published shortly before its rate announcement showing first-quarter gross domestic product grew by a less-than-expected 0.1% in the euro zone — feeding stagflation fears.

Markets reckon officials will focus on the upswing in prices, which jumped by 3% in April — the quickest since the autumn of 2023 — due to the ramp-up in energy costs. Traders are fully pricing three quarter-point increases in borrowing costs by year-end.

President Christine Lagarde will offer her thoughts at a news conference at 2:45 p.m. Watch it live below:

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 08:29

Futures Jump After Overnight Rollercoaster Session As Oil Unexpectedly Tumbles, Yen Soars

Futures erase an overnight slide, and have resumed their ascent trading near all time highs, despite a hawkish Fed statement but stronger Mag7 earnings. The hawkish Fed followed by a less hawkish press conference, plus the news that Powell is staying on seemingly removing a cut, actually have bond yields lower pre-mkt by 2-4bp as the Dollar weakens on what appears to be BOJ intervention which has sent the USDJPY plunging most since 2022. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, erasing a 0.5% drop earlier in the session; Nasdaq futures gain 0.6%: in premarket trading Alphabet is the big gainer from the major tech companies that reported, with Amazon rising too but Meta and Microsoft falling (META -9% AMZN +2.3%, GOOG +6%, and MSFT -1.8%). Semis continue to trade higher as well as Discretionary, Industrials and Materials while Financials, Healthcare and Staples lower as Cyclicals lead Defensives. Energy names are mostly lower after striking rollercoaster in the price of oil. In commodities, energy is weaker, metals are higher led by precious, and Ags are mostly higher. Today’s US economic data calendar slate includes jobless claims, personal income and spending, 1Q employment cost index and first estimate of Q1 GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and March Leading Index (10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed (NVDA +0.8%, AAPL +0.4%, TSLA +0.08%)

• Alphabet (GOOGL) jumps 7% after reporting high demand for its cloud and artificial intelligence offerings, giving investors confidence that its unprecedented investments in AI infrastructure will pay off.
• Amazon.com (AMZN) climbs 3% after the e-commerce and cloud-computing company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics. Analysts are broadly positive on the report, saying that the acceleration of Amazon Web Services is underway.
• Meta Platforms (META) falls 9% after the Facebook parent gave a forecast for capital expenditures that was higher than expected, a sign that investors remain skeptical about AI-related spending in some instances.
• Microsoft (MSFT) slips about 2% after the software company reported third-quarter results. Some analysts said the pace of growth in its Azure cloud-computing business may have underwhelmed.
• Blue Owl Capital (OWL) gains 4% as fee-related earnings and assets increased as the alternative investment firm leaned on other parts of its business amid souring sentiment toward private credit.
• Carvana (CVNA) rises 11% after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate as used-car volumes hit a record.
• Caterpillar (CAT) climbs 5% after posting first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations as surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers boosted sales of the company’s power-generation equipment.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) gains 4% after eeking out higher sales last quarter, suggesting the chain is starting to win back diners who previously balked at the rising price of its burritos.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) rises 7% after raising its full-year sales outlook on the strength of its weight-loss drugs and high hopes for its new obesity pill.
• Ford (F) falls 4% after warning that an unexpected rise in commodity costs will weigh on earnings.
• FormFactor (FORM) rises 10% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics, although analysts were especially positive on the company’s gross margins.
• KLA Corp. (KLAC) falls 4% after analysts note the tepid growth rate at the semiconductor capital equipment company when compared to peers.
• Merck (MRK) gains 3% after the drugmaker reported sales for the first quarter that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
• Procept Biorobotics (PRCT) gains 15% after the medical and surgical equipment manufacturer reported revenue for the first quarter that surpassed expectations.
• Stellantis (STLA) is down 5% after the carmaker posted first-quarter results that included disappointing numbers from North America.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps 11% after the company posted mixed results, but said that it was “excited” by its entry into data centers, where a “leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this calendar year.”
• Quanta Services (PWR) gains 6% after the provider of contracting services to electric utility companies reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) rises 7% after posting first quarter adjusted EPS that topped estimates.
• Smurfit Westrock (SW) falls 5% after the packaging company reported first-quarter adjusted Ebitda that missed analyst estimates.
• Wayfair (W) tumbles 8% after the ecommerce firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.

In other corporate news, Starwood Capital is “temporarily suspending” share repurchases from its Starwood REIT to preserve liquidity while waiting for the commercial real estate market to improve. Stellantis shares fell after analysts pointed to the automaker’s worse-than-expected financial performance in North America. And Pop Mart reported a sharp slowdown in US sales, underscoring its challenges in diversifying beyond the Labubu toy. In other AI news, OpenAI has met a key milestone for securing AI capacity in the US several years ahead of schedule, boosting the startup’s ambitious plans for data center expansion. SoftBank plans to establish and list an AI and robotics company called Roze in the US. And banks that recently signed a $40 billion bridge loan with SoftBank for its investment in OpenAI are said to have attracted more lenders to the deal in syndication.

Market sentiment got a boost as global benchmark Brent crude oil erased an intraday jump of as much as 7.1% to above $126 a barrel. Axios had reported that President Donald Trump was slated to receive a briefing Thursday on new plans for potential military action in Iran, clouding hopes for an imminent peace agreement. It was unclear what prompted the oil reversal, although there has been speculation that the BOJ is intervening in both FX and oil.

From swings in oil prices to a divided Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold and impressive megacap tech earnings, traders are grappling with a barrage of whipsawing headlines. That’s testing a global equity rally that has wiped out war-related losses and pushed US markets to new highs as investors still look for signs of an end to the conflict.

“Equities are caught in between escalating Middle East tensions and strong fundamental earnings data being released,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd. “Oil prices moving toward $150/bbl would likely increasingly impact the consumer in the US, which would also mark a turning point for equity markets. Thus, a deal is required to see a continued move higher over coming months.” 

For stocks, “earnings expectations are behaving like a force of nature, and that is more important than anything else,” writes Bloombing Opinion columnist John Authers. Traders are also looking at the playbook from Ukraine and the tariff turmoil, but “it’s hard to believe they’re not over-confident.”

On balance, the frenzy of earnings after the close had a reassuring message, and a clear winner: Alphabet’s Google was able to point to solid growth at its cloud computing unit, which recorded estimate-beating sales of $20 billion last quarter, justifying its AI spending.

Meta was the loser of the pack, with shares sliding after it boosted full-year capex to as much as $145 billion. Investors are concerned that the investments may not pay off, as Meta’s AI system still trails its peers. “So far, Meta’s stand-alone app hasn’t had the amount of engagement vs. other frontier labs,” said BI analyst Mandeep Singh. Amazon was relatively well received, with revenue from its cloud division up 28%, the fastest growth rate since 2Q 2022. Microsoft slightly underwhelmed with a forecast for a “modest acceleration” in Azure cloud sales in the second half of the calendar year.

Japan’s currency strengthened as much as 1.6% against the dollar to 157.85, its lowest since April 17, after Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura echoed Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama’s warning earlier Thursday that “the timing for taking bold steps is nearing.”

In politics, the 74-day shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security is nearing an end after House Speaker Mike Johnson united Republicans behind a two-part budget plan to fully fund the department. Members of Trump’s administration are said to have told Anthropic that they don’t agree with the company’s plan to grant access to its Mythos technology to roughly 70 companies and organizations.

European Stocks turned positive, with the Stoxx 600 now up by 0.4% having fallen as much as 0.7% ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision today. BNP Paribas fell after the lender reported higher credit provisions than expected. Credit Agricole and Societe Generale also dropped after results.Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Arcadis shares gain as much as 14%, the steepest intraday gain since July 2020, after the Dutch engineering services firm’s first-quarter results met with a positive response from Degroof Petercam analysts
• Glencore shares gain as much as 2.6% after the trading and mining giant posted strong profits, with 2026 full-year marketing Ebit expected to “comfortably exceed the top end of the range”
• United Utilities, the water utility company, rises as much as 12% to a record high following an £800m equity raise announcement. Analysts say the raise supports accelerated asset base growth and upgraded return targets
• Magnum Ice Cream shares rise as much as 13%, the biggest jump since its listing in December last year, after the former Unilever unit reported strong first-quarter volumes
• Delivery Hero gains as much as 6.6% after the food delivery firm said it’s confident of achieving upper half of its Ebitda guidance range. That comes after 1Q results beat estimates and showed a modest recovery in its core market Asia
• Puma shares rose as much as 4.1% on Thursday after reporting gross profit margin and sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, with analysts saying the results were solid and showed progress
• BNP Paribas shares dropped as much as 5.3% amid a wider decline for its French peers. The lender reported what analysts say are mixed results with a beat driven by its Corporate Centre unit, while the Arval unit disappointed
• SocGen shares decline as much as 6.7% on earnings that KBW called lackluster after fixed income revenue missed estimates. Profit beat consensus as equity trading and French retail units jumped from a year earlier
• Stellantis shares fall as much as 10% after the carmaker posted first-quarter results where key North America numbers disappointed, with analysts seeing a somewhat mixed print
• Erste Group Bank shares slide as much as 4.6% after the lender reported what a Barclays analyst called a low-quality profit beat helped by one-off gains, with adjusted earnings falling short of expectations
• Weir Group shares fall as much as 9.9% after the mining equipment provider reported first-quarter orders that analysts said look weak relative to peers
• Technip Energies shares slump as much as 10%, the most since October 2023, after the French engineering and technology company reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the first quarter and cut its guidance

Asian stocks slumped as Brent crude surged to a four-year high, fueling inflation concerns and dragging currencies lower across the region’s emerging economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.6%, the most intraday since April 2, before paring some declines. Equity benchmarks in Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines were among the top losers. All sectors on the regional gauge fell, except energy. Thursday’s losses pared the MSCI Asia gauge’s April gain to under 13%. It was still on course for its best month since November 2022, with a rally in tech names having overshadowed the impact of the US-Iran war on the broader market. Asian tech shares outperformed earlier on Thursday, following indications of continued high spending on AI infrastructure by the likes of Alphabet and Meta Platforms. Samsung Electronics’ chip arm beat expectations with a 48-fold jump in profit. However, those gains faded as the session progressed, suggesting investors likely trimmed positions ahead of the long weekend. Many of the region’s markets will be shut on Friday.

In FX, the yen the standout in currencies on increasing intervention risks, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.4%. The pound and UK bonds gained after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, with several policymakers saying they might consider future hikes given high energy prices. 

In rates, treasuries rebounded after the surge in oil and a hawkish hold by the Fed drove bonds lower on Wednesday.  US front-end yields are more than 5bp lower on the day, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2bp-3bp. 10-year, lower by about 4bp at session low 4.39%, trails 7bp drop for UK 10-year. US 30-year is back below 4.98% after topping 5% late Wednesday for the first time since July. UK gilts rally after Bank of England held rates steady, meeting expectations.

In commodities, oil prices reversed an earlier spike which took them to a wartime high, after Axios reported that US President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on new military options for action in Iran, signaling the potential for fresh escalation in the Middle East. The two sides showed little sign of breaking their impasse and agreeing to another round of peace talks, with Trump saying his navy’s blockade is working. However, shortly after the European open, oil tumbled with Brent now falling back toward $114.Gold prices higher and back above $4,600/oz.

US economic data calendar slate includes jobless claims, personal income and spending, 1Q employment cost index and first estimate of Q1 GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and March Leading Index (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.4%
• VIX -0.5 points at 18.31
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1199.46
• euro +0.1% at $1.169
• WTI crude +0.1% at $107.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump will receive a briefing on Thurs about potentially resuming military operations against Iran. Brent pushed to a 4 year high. Axios
• As Hormuz traffic stalls, the White House pitches a new coalition to get ships moving again. Trump reportedly wants other nations to form an alliance to help jump-start ship traffic. WSJ
• Japan’s top currency officials rolled out their “final” warning to speculators after the yen slipped to its weakest level since the nation’s last salvo of market interventions in 2024. BBG
• China’s factory activity held up in April, suggesting limited pressure from surging energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. China’s NBS PMIs for Apr were mixed, with manufacturing outperforming (50.3 vs. the Street 50.1) while non-manufacturing fell short (49.4 vs. the Street 49.8), and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was ahead of plan too at 52.2 (vs. the Street 51). WSJ
• China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export 500,000 tons of fuels to a handful of regular customers, signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments. BBG
• California gasoline prices topped $6 a gallon as the global energy crunch from the war reverberates. No other state has ever surpassed that mark. BBG
• Anthropic faces White House opposition to its plan to expand access to its Mythos AI model, an administration official said. Separately, the company is said to be weighing fresh funding that would value it at more than $900 billion. BBG
•  The record 74-day shutdown of the DHS is nearing an end after Mike Johnson united fractious Republicans behind a two-part budget plan aimed at fully funding the department. 
• US House has approved a Republican plan making way for a $70bln bill for ICE and Border Patrol.
• US Senators are to introduce legislation to tighten ban on Chinese vehicles.
• The US House has passed a three-year extension of the FISA re-authorisation.

Iran News

• US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran's uranium stockpile.
• US CENTCOM has asked to send the Army's hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• US CENTCOM said the US navy has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade.
• US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that Israel should only take surgical military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Axios reported.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said sprinting for the finish line with Iran, according to Fox Business; willing to do secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. Every day adding more economic pressure to Iran. Close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized. Consumers and stock market are looking through Iran. UAE and others have requested swap lines, swap lines are not a bailout.
• Iran lawmaker Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles via military action.
• Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade, which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking".
• Iran's Navy commander warns that Iran will soon face its enemies with a very dreadful weapon that will strike fear into their hearts, according to Press TV.
• Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reported. "“The clock on diplomacy has snit stopped. We remain hopeful for a negotiated settlement on this issue. We will continue with our sincerest efforts”,.
• China's Military said they conducted combat readiness patrols near Scarborough Shoal, according to a statement.
• "No point" in negotiating over zero enrichment, Iranian lawmaker said, Al Jazeera reported; adding “I have no objection to going to the negotiating table, but we should have looked more closely at how to proceed”.
• The US administration is asking countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. The Maritime Freedom Construct would be a US-led coalition that would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.
• A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad has been shot down, according to Iraqi security sources.
• Iranian Navy Commander said we have closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian sea side and will take swift action if enemy advances, Al Araby reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded with a negative bias, as weakness stateside in cash hours, earnings and recent geopolitical updates drive price action. More recently, Axios reported that US CENTCOM is to brief President Trump on new plans for potential military action, which is to include a short and powerful strike to break the nuclear issue deadlock. ASX 200 printed modest losses. IT and Tech topped the sector pile while consumer staples and mining underperformed. Nikkei 225 returned from holiday closure with losses in excess of 1%, returning to the 59,000 handle. Fujitsu weighed on the index after the Co.’s Q4 op. profit and FY forecast missed estimates. On the other hand, TDK was one of the outperformers, following FY net that rose by around 20%. KOSPI lacked direction, trading either side of the unchanged mark. Initial upside came after Samsung Electronics reported Q1 earnings that beat top- and bottom-line metrics. However, the earlier gains were erased as trade continued. LG Electronics held onto its earlier gains, after the Co. reported Q1 net that beat expectations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed, with the Hang Seng the clear underperformer. Stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs failed to support the indices, while China Construction Bank printed losses following its Q2 earnings.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura said this is the final warning before action is taken; speculative moves in FX are mounting; getting closer to taking decisive steps; seeing speculative activity in FX market.
• South Korea to launch 24hr USD/KRW trade from end-June.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) started the session broadly in the red, but have attempted to move higher as the morning progressed; currently towards highs. From an index standpoint, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) and the AEX (+0.5%) lead, whilst the FTSE MIB (-0.5%) lags. Initial downbeat sentiment stemmed from an Axios report which suggested that the US CENTCOM is to brief President Trump about military options in Iran on Thursday. Ahead, focus will be on the ECB and BoE policy announcements, where both are expected to stand pat on rates, but focus will be on any hawkish guidance. European sectors initially held a negative bias, but are now mixed. Basic Resources took the top spot, buoyed by strength in gold prices and after Glencore (+2%) reported a 19% jump in copper output. Utilities takes the second spot, led higher by United Utilities (+10%) after strong results and announcing an equity raise to fund a multi-billion dollar investment plan. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Autos; the latter has been driven lower by Stellantis (-7.4%), where shares have slumped on a tariff-adjusted miss.

Top European News

• POLITICO, citing UK Officials, said May 8 looks set to be a moment of real danger for the PM; said a long-time critic promised to go public with a call for PM Starmer to step down if results are as bad as expected.
• US President Trump posted that the US is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany with a determination to be made over a short period of time.
• Unilever (ULVR LN) Q1 2026 Trading Statement: Underlying Sales +3.8% (exp. 3.7%); FY26 outlook unchanged with USG at lower end of 4-6% and modest margin improvement expected.
• Glencore (GLEN LN) Q1 Production Report: Maintains FY production guidance; Copper production 199.6kt (prev. 167.9kt Y/Y), Cobalt 5.8kt (prev. 9.5kt Y/Y), Zinc 176.9kt (prev. 213.6kt Y/Y), Nickel 17.2kt (prev. 18.8kt Y/Y), Gold 68koz (prev. 145koz Y/Y).

FX

• G10 FX are mostly stronger against the Buck after DXY fell on remarks from Japanese Finance Minister who said "getting closer to taking decisive steps in FX", and Mimura, the top FX diplomat, said "This is the final warning before FX action". This strong commentary saw USD/JPY fall 80 pips on Katayama, then a further 30+ ticks on Mimura's remarks.
• USD/JPY, as mentioned, trades higher by around 0.6% as commentary from both officials proved more hawkish than previous verbal intervention attempts which failed to propel the JPY.
• EUR/USD trades a touch below the 1.17 mark in choppy trade, with the FOMC and decent JPY moves failing to knock the single currency ahead of the ECB meeting. Full preview in the Newsquawk research suite. This morning, EZ inflation ticked up from the prior but broadly in line with expectations. There was no real reaction from the series, which sticks to the narrative that price pressures remain broadly confined to the headline measures, with the core figures steady or actually moderating from the last reading. On Energy, that lifted to 10.9% (prev. 5.1%) and remains the primary contributor to the headline rate.
• EUR/GBP is also unchanged into the BoE and MPR, where it is expected to hold rates in a 9-0 vote split, with risks towards a dovish and/or hawkish dissent a possibility. Focus will be on any clues or hints towards the timing of the next move, and the MPC’s current view on market pricing. In terms of UK Politics, The Times reported that Former deputy PM Rayner is said to be weighing up mounting a direct challenge for the leadership after next week's local elections. Rayner is regarded as the most left-wing candidate, and also the bookies' favourite.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says timing to take decisive action is near; "we are getting closer to taking decisive steps in FX"; have long mentioned possible bold action on FX; monitoring FX while on holiday.
• Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura says this is the final warning before action is taken; speculative moves in FX are mounting; getting closer to taking decisive steps; seeing speculative activity in FX market.
• US will reportedly seek forfeiture of Iran-linked oil tankers seized at sea.

Central Banks

• Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged in 2026 (prev. forecasted cuts in Sep and Dec), expects 25bps of rate cuts each in Jan'27 and Mar'27.
• US President Trump posted that Jerome "Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't get a job anywhere else.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said it is highly unusual for Powell to stay on the Fed board, calling it an insult and violation of norms; adds Warsh will be Fed Chair on time.
• BoJ maintains May outright bond buying operations at the same levels as April.
• BoJ Outlook Report: weak JPY pushes up prices for a wide range of good services, thereby giving a bigger boost to core consumer inflation; impact of a weak JPY shock is bigger than that of oil shock. "...while a yen depreciation shock tends to lead to a rise in the GDP deflator through wage increases and greater profit margins, an increased crude oil price shock tends to cause a decline in the GDP deflator through compressed profit margins and wages, reflecting worsened trading gains...In the current phase, it is possible that both shocks could occur at the same time...".
• The BoE has raised concerns over plans to cut the capital requirements of specialist trading firms, the FT reported; BoE officials are worried they could increase financial stability risks by making firms less able to withstand a crisis.
• The RBNZ is to release details on how the MPC members vote, making the votes publicly available when a consensus is not reached.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8628 vs exp. 6.8414 (prev. 6.8608).
• NBH Governor Varga said that the forint gains have helped the Bank reach its inflation target.
• BoK official said that we act if needed to stabilise financial markets and monitor the Middle East conflict.
• BCB cuts 25bps to 14.50%, as expected; decision was unanimous and it affirms serenity and caution in the conduct of monetary policy.

Fixed Income

• Overall, a contained session for fixed benchmarks. USTs lifted off overnight 110-07+ lows across the European morning, up to an 110-15+ high but with gains of just a few ticks at most. Action that comes as the space eases off the hawkish lows delivered after the Fed and Powell (recap on the board).
• Ahead, the US is focused on PCE, consensus chimes with the guidance from Chair Powell last night. Recent pricing data has shown that energy was the primary driver, with the core offering some relative relief as such. Though, PCE-related PPI components suggest service pressures remain sticky. Policy implications would be in line with the direction of the series, though a cooler print would likely provide only temporary relief given the clear signs of persistent price pressures elsewhere.
• Bunds in the red, though only by c. 5 ticks. Got to a 110-07 base before rebounding a touch, though only as high as 124.75, where it was briefly flat. EZ Flash HICP sparked no real reaction, sticks to the narrative that price pressures remain broadly confined to the headline measures. Ahead, the ECB is expected to maintain rates, a decision merited by the relatively limited amount of data, no overt signs of second-round effects and uncertainty on the duration of the shock and degree of pass-through.
• Gilts gapped lower by 29 ticks and then slipped another five to an 85.90 low, an open that took out Wednesday's 85.98 base and notched a fresh contract low. Amidst this, the UK 10yr yield got to a 5.09% peak, nearing but not testing the recent 23rd March peak at 5.12%. Ahead, attention on the BoE, where a hold is expected, and while 9-0 is technically the base case , dissent on both the dovish and hawkish side of things is very possible. Overall, we are mainly after hints from the MPC itself, and the individual statements and press conference around the timing of the next move, though neither the statement nor Bailey are likely to be that explicit at this stage. Gilts are currently incrementally in the green, amidst a recent bout of pressure in the energy space.
• Japan sold JPY 2.8tln 2-year JGBs: Average yield 1.407%, b/c 5.24x, price tail 0bps.
• China allocates CNY 91.5bln in special bonds for equipment upgrades.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, US CENTCOM is set to brief President Trump on new military options for Iran, including potential strikes, Hormuz intervention, and uranium seizure operations, according to Axios. Meanwhile, the US blockade remains the core strategy, with Trump calling it “genius” and refusing to lift it without a nuclear deal. Elsewhere, Iran is threatening “unprecedented military action” if the blockade continues, while economic pressure is intensifying internally. The US is pushing to form a global maritime coalition to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On this note, US CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper will brief Trump on Thursday on new Iran military plans, with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine also attending, according to Axios.
• WTI June and Brent July futures are firmer as de-escalation efforts between US and Iran seem futile, with neither side publicly willing to move on demand. WTI resides in a USD 106.39-110.93/bbl range and Brent in a USD 109.63-114.70/bbl parameter. Do note that a bout of pressure was seen in the crude complex, taking contracts towards lows - a move which lacked a clear driver. Dutch TTF holds a mild upward bias and found some resistance at EUR 49/MWh before waning to near EUR 47/MWh.
• Spot gold and silver are firmer as the DXY falls on recent JPY strength following the “final warning” from Japan’s Top currency diplomat with regards to JPY intervention, with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama earlier sparking JPY strength as she said the timing to take decisive action is near – which comes ahead of the Japanese market holidays between May 3rd-6th. Spot gold has topped yesterday’s high to trade in a current USD 4,539-4,629/oz.
• Base metals are also benefiting from the softer USD coupled with above-forecast Chinese RatingDog and NBS Manufacturing PMIs. 3M LME copper resides in a 12,977.97- 13,120.35/t range at the time of writing.
• California gasoline price tops USD 6/gallon for first time since 2023, Bloomberg reported.
• IEA's Birol said oil prices over USD 120/bbl is putting a lot of pressure on many countries.
• Oman crude OSP calculated at USD 104.73/bbl for June (prev. USD 124.05/bbl in May).
• Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi reportedly to announce naphtha supply secured "until the new year", Nikkei reported.
• Russia's Novak said OPEC+ to evaluate possibilities to supply global oil market at May 3 meeting, IFX reported.
• China reportedly to allow state refiners to export some fuels to Asia buyers.
• Fire at Russia's Tuapse oil refinery has been extinguished, regional Governor said.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said UAE exit does not mean a price war, reiterates there are no plans to leave OPEC+, IFX reported. OPEC+ will continue working together.
• The Japanese Government is considering reviving power and gas subsidies this summer, according to sources; Plan is to use reserve funds and no extra budget eyed for now.
• The Iranian oil minister has urged the public to reduce energy consumption, while dismissing the impact of the US naval blockade, CNN reported; the government has instructed government offices to cut electricity use by up to 70%.
• Iran's delegation to the UN said its enriched uranium is under the full supervision of the IAEA.
• Indonesia set May Crude Palm Oil reference price at USD 1,049/mt.
• US National Emergency Dominance Council Director Agun is set to travel to Venezuela on Thursday for meetings with oil, gas and mining execs.
• Fire at PDVSA's Cardon refinery's FCC unit is reportedly under control.

Geopolitics

• Russia's Novak said OPEC+ to evaluate possibilities to supply global oil market at May 3 meeting, IFX reported.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is to seek clarification from the US, on details of Russia's ceasefire proposal; Ukraine's proposal is a long term ceasefire.
• Fire at Russia's Tuapse oil refinery has been extinguished, regional Governor said.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said UAE exit does not mean a price war, reiterates there are no plans to leave OPEC+, IFX reported. OPEC+ will continue working together.
• The EU is preparing a package of short-term benefits for Ukraine, which would include greater market access and deeper participation in EU programmes, Politico reported citing diplomats.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Mar Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior -0.07%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.9%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 2.8%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 2.97%
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212k, prior 214k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1815k, prior 1821k
• 8:30 am: United States 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.7%
• 8:30 am: United States 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.25%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: United States 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.4%, prior 1.9%
• 8:30 am: United States 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.9%, prior 3.7%
• 8:30 am: United States 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 4.1%, prior 2.7%
• 9:45 am: United States Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 54.85, prior 52.8
• 10:00 am: United States Mar Leading Index, est. -0.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a hugely eventful 24 hours in markets, the newsflow has shown no sign of easing this morning, with Brent crude up +5.96% overnight to $125.06/bbl. Significantly, that’s its highest intraday level since the Iran conflict began, and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, that’s fed growing fears about an extended stagflationary shock. The market impact of that is already clear, particularly for sovereign bonds, and overnight we’ve seen Japan’s 10yr yield move up to 2.51%, which would be its highest closing level since 1997. It was a similar story in Europe too, with the 10yr bund yield at a post-2011 high of 3.11%, whilst 10yr gilt yields hit a post-2008 high of 5.07%. So there was little sign of respite anywhere, and that’s before we even discuss the Fed’s latest decision and earnings from 4 of the Mag 7 companies.
The main catalyst for the latest jump in oil prices was a report from Axios, suggesting that an escalation in the conflict was still being considered as an option. And overnight, they’ve reported that Trump is set to receive a briefing today on potential plans for military action. According to that article, US Central Command had prepared a “short and powerful” wave of strikes that would aim to break the negotiating deadlock. Moreover, that followed a post from Trump earlier in the day, which said that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”

With no sign of any peace talks and fears mounting about an escalation, oil prices have continued their gains of recent days. Indeed, even before the overnight jump, Brent crude was already up +6.08% yesterday to $118.03/bbl, marking an 8th consecutive increase. In addition, investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict as well, as longer-dated futures have moved up to their highest levels of the conflict so far. For example, the 6-month Brent future is at $91.49/bbl this morning, having not previously closed above $90/bbl in this conflict.

All that follows an eventful decision from the Fed yesterday. They kept rates on hold as expected, but there were notably 4 dissents, which is the most for an FOMC decision since 1992. That included Governor Miran, who supported a 25bp rate cut once again. But we also saw three of the regional Fed Presidents – Hammack, Kashkari and Logan – make a hawkish dissent over the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. In the subsequent press conference, Chair Powell acknowledged a “vigorous” debate about the guidance language, commenting that the centre of the FOMC was also “moving toward a more neutral place” but that “a majority of us didn’t feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now”. He also said that the“policy stance is in a good place for us to hold” amid the uncertainty stemming from the Middle East, and our US economists write that it reinforces their baseline view that the policy rate is likely to remain unchanged this year. 

Aside from policy, the other big news was that Chair Powell will stay on as a Fed Governor once his four-year term as Chair ends on May 15. As a reminder, Fed Governors have a 14-year term separate to the 4-year term as Chair, and Powell’s 14-year seat on the board goes up to January 2028, so he’d retain a vote on policy if he stays. Powell said this would be “for a period of time, to be determined”, and that he wouldn’t leave the board until the DoJ’s investigation “is well and truly over, with transparency and finality”. That decision means that the incoming chair would need to take over Governor Miran’s board seat, who voted for a 25bp cut at this meeting. There was also an update on the next chair yesterday, as the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate, leaving him on track to take over as Chair next month when Powell’s term expires.

For markets, the combination of higher oil prices and a more hawkishly divided Fed saw investors price out rate cuts this year, with futures for the December meeting pricing 3bps of hikes by the close. Moreover, the path ahead is increasingly turning hawkish, with futures now pricing a 55% probability of a Fed hike by next April. So that helped Treasury yields to jump across the curve, with 2yr yields (+11.3bps) seeing their largest spike since October to 3.95%. And further out the curve, the 10yr yield (+8.4bps) reached 4.43%, and the 30yr (+6.7bps) was back at 5.00%, the highest since July for both.

In the meantime, US equities had a muted session yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.04%) and the NASDAQ (+0.04%) little changed. But the equity mood then turned more positive after the close, with Alphabet rising in post-market trading as it led a decent set of Mag-7 earnings. Its shares climbed by +6.6% after market, as it reported stronger-than-expected cloud revenue growth ($20.0bn vs. $18.4bn estimate) and a near doubling in its backlog of contracted work. Otherwise, Amazon rose over +2% after-hours after delivering the strongest growth in Amazon Web Services revenue since 2022 (+28% vs +25.7% est.). Microsoft’s cloud revenue growth was more in line with expectations (+39% vs +38.2% est.), with the company projecting a modest acceleration in H2. Meanwhile, Meta fell back after last night’s results, down -7% after-hours as its revenue guidance came in line with expectations but the 2026 CAPEX plan was raised by $20bn to $125-145bn.
In Asia this morning, those stagflation concerns are still top of mind, with losses across the region. For instance, the Nikkei (-1.48%), the Hang Seng (-1.23%) and the KOSPI (-1.13%) have all seen decent falls, although in mainland China, the CSI 300 (-0.01%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.09%) are both little changed. Those losses have extended to US and European equity futures as well, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.23%) and the DAX (-0.82%) both pointing to fresh declines.

Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as we’ve got decisions from both the ECB and the Bank of England. For the ECB, it’s widely expected they’ll keep their deposit rate on hold at 2%. But given Europe’s exposure to the energy shock, markets are fully pricing in a hike at the next meeting in June, so the question today is whether the ECB validates that view. Our European economists think there’s still too much uncertainty about what happens to energy prices and the extent to which that propagates into inflation, so the ECB will want to gather more information before deciding in June whether to hike or not. In the meantime, they think the ECB will retain some hawkish optionality and emphasise a meeting-by-meeting approach to decisions. For more info, see their full preview here.

For the Bank of England, it’s also widely expected they’ll leave rates unchanged today, keeping them at 3.75%. Our UK economist expects they’ll emphasise the two-sided risks to the outlook, with a cut to their growth forecasts and an increase for inflation. He writes that their forecasts and scenario projections will be important signalling tools, and he thinks that one thing to look out for will be where they put their 2yr and 3yr CPI projections. That’s because a protracted CPI overshoot would be hawkish, whereas CPI at or below 2% on a 2yr or 3yr forecast horizons would be construed as marginally dovish. 

Ahead of those decisions, European markets had struggled yesterday, as the uptick in oil prices led to growing fears of a lasting stagflationary shock. Indeed, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+23.3bps) hit a three-year high of 3.87%, and markets are now pricing in 83bps of ECB rate hikes by the December meeting, up +10.9bps on the day. So collectively, that pushed yields up to new highs across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield (+4.3bps) closing at a new post-2011 high of 3.11%. Similarly in the UK, the 10yr gilt yield (+6.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 5.07%, whilst the 30yr yield (+3.5bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.72%. Moreover, there was little respite for equities either, with the STOXX 600 (-0.60%) hitting a three-week low.

Finally, we did get a few noteworthy data releases yesterday. In Germany, the flash CPI print for April surprised on the downside, with the EU-harmonised reading only up to +2.9% (vs. +3.1% expected). So that added to hopes that the Euro Area print today might come in softer as well. Otherwise, we had a batch of US data, which included the strongest housing starts since December 2024, at an annualised rate of 1.502m in March (vs. 1.380m expected). Meanwhile, the preliminary reading for durable goods orders was also above expectations in March, rising +0.8% (vs. +0.5% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlights will be the policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. Otherwise, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for April, US PCE inflation for March, and the Q1 GDP releases from the US and the Euro Area. We’ll also get the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Euro Area unemployment rate for March, and German unemployment for April. Finally, Apple will release its latest earnings.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 08:19