Zero Rss

Even GOP Hawks Now Alarmed Over Iran War Fallout As 60-Days Hits Friday

Amid reports that Vice President JD Vance is very seriously questioning the White House's Iran War narrative along with the Pentagon's rosy and overly positive updates on how things are going, over in Congress there's growing alarm as Trump's Operation Epic Fury is set to hit the 60-day mark on Friday. 

Republicans no doubt want to wrap things up fast, however, the latest reports say the White House is preparing for an extended Hormuz blockade of at least 'months' longer, per fresh WSJ reporting. There now appears to be a significant shift among Republicans underway, given that the 1973 War Powers Resolution requires that a US president must terminate unauthorized military operations within 60 days of initiating them.

The stickers have started to appear: from a gas station in Texas, submitted by a ZH reader.

Congress must then certify a need for continued military force in the instance that the nation faces an imminent threat. Already several war power initiatives have been effectively blocked on the House and Senate sides. 

But amid the ongoing Hormuz Strait blockade, Americans - and thus their representatives in Congress, are increasingly wary of the coming economic blowback. As we featured earlier on Wednesday, the average price for a gallon of gasoline hit its highest level in four years on Tuesday as the cost of a barrel of oil remains elevated amid Trump's war of choice in the Middle East.

This has triggered talk among GOP leaders of the need to go ahead and vote on formal war authorization, even among the hawks. Below is a quick round-up of Congressional member quotes via Semafor:

Sen. Curtis: "It’s a big deal… There are a number of us having discussions about what that day means, what our response should be."

Sen. Collins: "Sixty days is a trigger that requires Congress to act."

Rep. Don Bacon: "We haven’t been doing combat over the last two weeks. I think it merits good discussion. In the end, I want us to finish the job."

Sen. Hawley: Rubio’s "been pretty careful to comply with the statute. My hope is they’ll notify us that they’re drawing down offensive operations."

Sen. Murkowski: "You’ve got to talk to us.” She warned that if that doesn’t happen, “you may see a change in the situation” in Congress.

Sen. Tillis: “This is going to be weeks or months away from resolution, and more likely the latter. So why not send a very clear signal to Iran" and authorize war for a 1 year?

And an unnamed GOP Senator is cited in the report as saying: "People cross some sort of threshold and start to be very uncomfortable with it. I am sensing restlessness among many of my colleagues."

New: The war in Iran has cost U.S. taxpayers $25 billion thus far, the Pentagon tells Congress

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) April 29, 2026

The White House has been steadily hailing the "successful" US naval blockade of Iranian reports. Still, as Reuters spells out Tuesday, "High oil prices are a risk for Trump's fellow Republicans ahead of the midterm congressional elections in November." Brent crude hit briefly reached $119/barrel on Wednesday amid signs of escalation, poised to overtake prior Iran war highs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 13:30

Al Gore Shifts On Global Warming: Time To Watch Out For A New Ice Age?

The rhetoric and predictions behind climate change "science" change so haphazardly, it's a sure sign that the entire field of study is fraudulent.  If the manufactured hysteria is not enough to clue people in, the failed predictions of Al Gore should do the trick.

Former Vice President Al Gore warned a Hollywood audience this week that a "Gulf Stream collapse" could occur within 25 years, leading to an abrupt and devastating new Ice Age.  

Mr. Gore, now 78, appeared at the inaugural Sustainability in Entertainment Honors event, co-hosted by The Hollywood Reporter and the Sustainable Entertainment Alliance at Hotel Bel-Air in Los Angeles. He participated in a keynote conversation with actor Bradley Whitford of “The West Wing,” timed to the 20th anniversary of “An Inconvenient Truth.”

Gore invoked the scenario depicted in the 2004 disaster film “The Day After Tomorrow”, saying a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, commonly called the Gulf Stream, is “a very real threat within the next 25 years.”

“That movie that I mentioned, ‘The Day After’ about the Gulf Stream shutting down, well, this morning in one of the English newspapers is a whole big article summarizing the recent dire warnings of the scientists who found yet more confirmatory information..."

The claim is related to Gore's assertion that ice cap melt will disrupt global oceans volumes and salinity, leading to a a change in the gulf stream and the distribution of heat to higher latitudes.  However, Gore's predictions (and the predictions of the scientists he cites) on ice melt have been widely debunked.  

In a 2009 speech at the Copenhagen Climate Conference, Mr. Gore cited researchers who he said projected a 75% chance the Arctic could be nearly ice-free during some summer months within five to seven years — a forecast that did not materialize. The researcher he cited, Naval Postgraduate School professor Wieslaw Maslowski, said afterward that he did not know how the 75% figure had been arrived at.

In reality, the kind of ice melt Al Gore warns about is projected to take centuries or even thousands of years, causing millimeters per year of ocean rise which is barely noticeable and not catastrophic.  It is interesting, though, that Gore has jumped on the idea of a new Ice Age, given the numerous doomsday prediction by climate scientists over the decades are now proving frivolous.  

The truth is, the Earth has been far warmer (and rarely colder) than temperatures are today.  Global warming science relies on a rigged data window:  The temperature history that "experts" use only goes back to the 1880s.  This is a tiny sliver of the Earths atmospheric history that is completely inadequate to understanding climate change, which is a natural process, not man-made.  

There is also no concrete evidence supporting the claim of correlation or causation of carbon emissions to global warming.  The data over millions of years simply does not match.

The climate change grift is a creation of the Club of Rome from the 1970s to the 1990s.  It was a UN associated group of prominent elites which sought to fabricate a rationale for global governance.  What they came up with was "global environmental disaster" as a way to motivate the populace to accept more centralized control of industry, trade and energy. 

Al Gore is a long time member of the Club of Rome, according to the groups own documentation.  He often cites the Club of Rome's 1972 report "Limits Of Growth" as a basis for his ideological beliefs.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 13:10

US To Issue Limited Passports With Trump's Image For America's 250th Anniversary

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. State Department announced on April 28 that it will release limited-edition passports featuring a picture of President Donald Trump to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary of independence.

State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a statement to multiple news outlets that the department would release “a limited number of specially designed U.S. passports to commemorate this historic occasion” in July, but did not specify how many would be issued.

“These passports will feature customized artwork and enhanced imagery while maintaining the same security features that make the U.S. passport the most secure documents in the world,” Pigott said.

The White House posted a mockup of the limited-edition passport on social media, which shows the interior page featuring an image of Trump and his signature in gold, while the back cover displays the “Declaration of Independence” painting by John Trumbull.

“Patriot passport unlocked. Limited edition. Stamped for America 250,” the White House said in the X post.

The only presidents featured in current U.S. passports are in a double-page depiction of Mount Rushmore in South Dakota—George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln.

Other depictions include the Statue of Liberty, the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall in Philadelphia, and scenes of the Great Plains, mountains, and islands. Current passports also contain quotations from Martin Luther King Jr. as well as Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Dwight Eisenhower.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 12:50

In Huge Win For Republicans, Supreme Court Curbs Use Of Race In Drawing Voting Districts

In a sweeping 6-3 decision issued today, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Louisiana’s congressional map with a second majority-Black district is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (No. 24-109) delivers a major victory for Republicans by sharply curtailing the Voting Rights Act’s ability to compel the creation of predominantly Black or Hispanic districts - a development that could help the GOP protect and expand its House majority in the 2026 midterms and beyond.

Writing for the Court, Justice Samuel Alito held that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, properly interpreted, did not require Louisiana to draw the additional majority-Black district in Senate Bill 8. Because the state’s use of race was not justified by a compelling interest, the map violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

A Major Reset of Voting Rights Law

Huge victory for GOP with big implications for race for House https://t.co/QRTl01bxt2

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 29, 2026

The decision does far more than resolve one Louisiana map. It fundamentally updates the legal framework for Voting Rights Act challenges that has been in place since Thornburg v. Gingles (1986). The Court made three critical changes that will make it significantly harder for plaintiffs to force race-conscious districting:

• Illustrative maps must be race-neutral: Plaintiffs can no longer draw “demonstration maps” that deliberately maximize majority-minority districts. Any alternative map must fully comply with all of a state’s legitimate, non-racial districting goals - including traditional criteria and the state’s partisan political objectives.
• Race must be disentangled from party: To prove political cohesion and racial bloc voting, plaintiffs must now control for partisan affiliation. Simply showing that Black voters and white voters support different candidates is no longer enough if the pattern tracks party preference rather than race.
• Focus on current intentional discrimination: The “totality of circumstances” analysis must center on evidence of present-day intentional racial discrimination in voting. Historical discrimination and generalized “societal effects” carry far less weight.

These changes align Section 2 more closely with the Fifteenth Amendment’s prohibition on intentional racial discrimination and the Constitution’s general bar on race-based government action.

SCOTUS issues opinion in Voting Rights Act case

6-3 strikes down Louisiana map along ideological lines

Likely means there will be one less Black opportunity district

BUT does not strike down Section 2 of VRA

Quick read is that only affects handful of districts right now https://t.co/8tR9kdS6ys

— Sam Shirazi (@samshirazim) April 29, 2026

Samuel Alito’s majority opinion in a 6-3 Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of racially gerrymandered congressional district makes clear that such districts are blatantly unconstitutional while leaving the larger Voting Rights Act intact.

The Voting Rights Act was… pic.twitter.com/spnhV10r64

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 29, 2026 Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 12:45

"6–12 Months For Construction Permits" - The Nuclear Regulation Overhaul

As we have been detailing for months, the Trump administration is pushing the deployment of nuclear energy in ways never before seen in modern times. Among the dozens of major regulatory changes, award programs, and high-speed development initiatives, the administration seems to be clearing a new roadblock every week, yet in reality it is greatly lagging global rollout of NPPs, and especially China which is currently building at least 39 nuclear reactors.  

Four months later, China has added 9 more reactors and is now building a total of 39 nuclear power plants. Meanwhile the US has added 0 and is still building 0 https://t.co/TJ6BoMghNk pic.twitter.com/O4idOANNUr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2026

Forbes recently detailed one of the most significant regulatory changes to date with the publishing of a new reactor licensing path, referred to as Part 57, by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). 

Microreactor developer Nano Nuclear released a statement highlighting the benefits of the new licensing option and how their reactor designs stand to benefit...

$NNE "NANO Nuclear Sees KRONOS MMR™ Well-Aligned with NRC’s Evolving Advanced Reactor Frameworks Under Part 53 and Proposed Part 57" The NRC’s Part 53 final rule, which becomes effective on April 29, 2026. #NuclearEnergy #Microreactor #USA ⚛️🇺🇸https://t.co/izWmh7oFZz

— NANO Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) (@nano_nuclear) April 28, 2026

Until now, reactor developers have had to choose between two licensing paths, either Part 50 or Part 52.

Part 50 is the legacy path tailored to large, water-cooled reactors like the Westinghouse AP1000 models that were built at the Vogtle site in Georgia.

Part 52 was later introduced to streamline the steps of Part 50 to avoid regulatory delays, especially lawfare from NIMBY activists. Part 52, though, is still tailored to large, water-cooled reactors. 

Just this year, Part 53 was finally published. Part 53 allows advanced reactor developers to skip over the requirements of Parts 50 and 52 that are not required or not applicable, and streamline the path to operations even further. 

This brings us to the latest regulation released in draft form just last week, Part 57.

Part 57 is explicitly tailored towards microreactors and is formatted to allow for approval of fleets of these smaller modules as opposed to individual licensing of one reactor at a time. 

The new licensing path also includes authorizations for unique modes of operation, simplified environmental reviews, and the possibility of early construction to further speed up reactor deployment. 

One of the most notable takeaways from the newest licensing path from the NRC is the regulator's estimation of savings coming in at almost $4 billion dollars on the low end from reduction in exemption requests and streamlining reviews. The regulator also claims permits could be issued on timelines as short as 6-12 months, compared to previous timelines which stretched to several years. 

Forbes also touched on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) facility. We have covered developments at the INL DOME multiple times, with the anticipation that Radiant Nuclear will be taking their Kaleidos pilot design critical by July 4th of this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 12:30

COVID Cover-Up: Hiding Star Researcher Ralph Baric's Ties To Global Pandemic

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via RealClearInvestigations,

In March 2020, a couple of months after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States, editors at the journal Nature Medicine appended a note to a coronavirus study it had published five years prior. “We are aware that this article is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered,” the journal editors wrote. “There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.”

The prestigious journal appears to have taken this extraordinary action for two reasons. First, the study described cutting-edge gain-of-function research that mixed different viruses together to create a man-made chimera, or hybrid of both viruses – experiments some suspected were the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the pandemic. Second, the study’s authors were Shi Zengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology – a research lab in the city that was ground zero for the pandemic – and Ralph Baric, the world's leading expert on coronaviruses, of the University of North Carolina.

The renowned virologist Simon Wain-Hobson said that note was an early sign of the years-long effort by the scientific establishment to distract the public and obscure the link between lab studies to create dangerous viruses and the COVID pandemic that wrecked the global economy and killed millions across the planet. During a March talk at the National Institutes of Health, Wain-Hobson blasted former NIH leaders Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci for funding these lab studies and then misleading the public about their dangers. 

“Sorry to be blunt,” Wain-Hobson told NIH researchers. “I know these are former colleagues.”

Since the pandemic’s outbreak six years ago, a slew of emails and documents released by Congress and through public records requests cast a dark shadow on the NIH and the virologists it funded, with nearly two-thirds of Americans now believing the virus came from a laboratory in China. Although the question of whether the virus that causes COVID-19 originated in a lab or in the wild is still a subject of debate, there is no doubt that scientists at the highest level worked to dismiss the lab-leak theory and shut down their connections to the work in Wuhan. Efforts by Collins and Fauci to delegitimize dissenting voices have been reported, but the central role played by Baric has been obscured. The UNC researcher’s work on coronaviruses and his connection to the Wuhan lab are now receiving renewed attention after RealClearInvestigations learned that the federal government has quietly removed Baric from all his NIH grants. RCI has also learned that UNC placed Baric on leave. UNC has also refused to cooperate with NIH officials as they have attempted to gather more facts and emails about Baric’s coronavirus research, which evidence leads them to believe led to the coronavirus pandemic.

Baric did not respond to multiple, detailed requests for comment and clarification about these matters and other issues reported by RCI. UNC Chancellor Lee H. Roberts did not respond to multiple requests for comment about actions taken against Baric nor UNC’s lack of cooperation with the federal government.

RCI’s months-long review of hundreds of pages of emails and interviews with more than a dozen current and former congressional staffers and administration officials shows that Baric’s public proclamations about his work, which has been connected to tens of millions of dollars in federal research grants, have not always reflected his own private reservations about risky experiments. Baric has also participated in campaigns to cast doubt on the dangers of virus research, while politicians and the FBI have sought to protect him. In addition, the University of North Carolina has blocked both private individuals and federal agencies demanding more transparency.

“He’s got good PR people at the University of North Carolina helping him, but nobody has strung together his entire history,” said Gary Ruskin, executive director of U.S. Right to Know. Ruskin has been suing Baric’s university since 2020 to obtain access to his communications, and his nonprofit has published thousands of emails spotlighting Baric’s work and ties to research in Wuhan, China. “Six years later, we still know so little,” he said. “That’s just amazing to me. The public deserves to know what happened.”

“The investigations have been terrible,” said a senior congressional staffer who has followed the Senate and House probes of the COVID pandemic. “And Ralph Baric’s fingerprints are everywhere.”

A researcher whose security clearance allowed him to view still-classified documents told RCI there is no doubt the virus came from a lab in Wuhan. “This is a good view of what happened to virology,” he said. “They started willy nilly mutating viruses, and then got upset when this led to 20 million deaths.”

Controversial History

Baric’s virus research has long been controversial as he pioneered “gain-of-function” studies, which design viruses with unique genetic features that make them either more deadly to humans or more likely to cause an infection. This line of research posits that generating deadly viruses in labs allows scientists to create treatments before a similar pathogen evolves in the wild and begins killing humans. 

Federal funding for studies to enhance viruses hit a snag in 2011 when Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical Center and Yoshihiro Kawaoka at the University of Wisconsin created a new and deadly flu virus that could spread through the air.

Fearing the virus could be used as a bioweapon, the U.S. National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity asked two scientific journals to delete details of the scientific methods and specific mutations in the Fouchier and Kawaoka studies on the lab-engineered bird flu. Public outcries then prompted the Obama administration to call for new rules on gain-of-function studies. 

In 2014, the federal government released guidelines which NIH director Francis Collins said would help “preserve the benefits of life-science research while minimizing the risk of misuse.” But these rules did little to slow dangerous studies.

Within weeks, the virology community was hit with a bracing setback. Following poor safety procedures, dozens of CDC workers were potentially exposed to anthrax, and vials of smallpox virus were found unsecured in an NIH storeroom. In response, the Obama White House announced a pause on all gain-of-function virus research so the risks and benefits could be better assessed. 

The researcher most affected by the pause was Ralph Baric, who was described as America’s “foremost coronavirus biologist” in an NPR report headlined, “How A Tilt Toward Safety Stopped A Scientist’s Virus Research.” Referring to gain-of-function research, David Relman, a microbiologist at Stanford University, told NPR, “I don’t think it’s wise or appropriate for us to create large risks that don’t already exist.”

Baric, however, countered that his animal experiments on the SARS and MERS viruses posed no threat to people. “No. 1, mice don’t sneeze,” he told NPR.

Baric also told NPR that he would accede to the ban. “The NIH has asked me to stop those experiments,” Baric said, “and so we have stopped those experiments.”

But in the waning days of the Obama administration, the government sought to draft new guidelines that would lift this pause on dangerous studies. Newly disclosed emails acquired by RCI show that NIH officials under Anthony Fauci and Baric’s former employee, virologist Matt Frieman, began a secret lobbying campaign to influence the Obama White House to ensure recommendations would not inhibit scientific funding. 

These emails have never been reported and were provided by a researcher familiar with this effort.

Secret Lobbying

A few weeks after Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election – but before he was inaugurated – White House employees in the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) began to finalize a new government-wide guidance for gain-of-function research. Suggesting the importance of this effort both to science and national security, senior officials from multiple agencies were working with OSTP to finalize the new advice, including HHS, FDA, USDA, FBI, CDC, DOD, State Department, DNI, CIA, and branches of the military, according to leaked emails. 

But while senior officials at agencies across the government fought for the ear of the White House, OSTP invitedFrieman for a personal visit from the nearby University of Maryland, and he appears to have acted as a lobbyist for his fellow gain-of-function researchers. 

While waiting for a train, Frieman dashed off a group email, urging coronavirus researchers for examples of gain-of-function studies that had been halted by White House policies. The first person listed on the group email was Frieman’s former boss, Ralph Baric. 

“We all know that our work has been impacted in grants but also in projects that were stalled, or didn’t pursue because of the moratorium,” Frieman wrote. He then asked the scientists for examples of gain-of-function studies that had been stopped for safety reasons. “Specifically, I need examples of people that have been impacted and a brief description of the experiment(s).”

Working with Frieman, researchers then compiled a five-page list of virus studies – which included constructing new SARS chimeric viruses – that had been stopped by the Obama White House.

According to the emails, Frieman reported back to NIH officials working for Tony Fauci that he met with OSTP associate director Jo Handelsman. He was joined at the meeting by Stacy Schultz-Cherry, an NIH-funded infectious disease researcher at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. 

Schultz-Cherry remains a strong proponent of gain-of-function research. In 2023, she and two of the virologists Frieman contacted to lobby Handelsman led a report by the American Society of Microbiologists arguing for “a balanced scientific discussion” that emphasized the benefits to society of gain-of-function virus research. Handelsman, who is now a professor at the University of Wisconsin, served as a participant for the American Society of Microbiologists’ report.

The White House OSTP released the recommendations weeks before Trump was sworn into office in 2017. While calling for more rigorous review of research involving enhanced potential pandemic pathogens, it also stated that, “Projects that have been paused under the existing moratorium will now be reviewed utilizing a process consistent with the recommended policy guidance. Any projects that are determined suitable to proceed will do so with appropriate risk mitigation measures in place.”

In Wain-Hobson’s telling, the American Society of Microbiology reports on gain-of-function virus research put self-interest and continued taxpayer funding ahead of the public good. “This is to defend the boys and keep the money coming in for microbiology,” he said. “They see themselves as the defenders of the faith; they are the self-anointed priests.” 

COVID Blueprint

About a year after the White House passed new guidance for safer gain-of-function studies, Baric, his Wuhan colleague Shi Zhengli, and a slew of other researchers presented one of the first major tests of the guidelines. In 2018, they submitted a grant to DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. 

DARPA is a research agency housed within the Department of War, known for funding high-risk, high-reward projects. The existence of this proposal – which many see as a blueprint for the COVID virus – remained hidden until late 2021 when a military officer leaked it to a group of online investigators called DRASTIC.

“Lots of people knew about it and chose not to tell us,” said author Matt Ridley, in a recent talk at the NIH discussing evidence that the pandemic started at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Led by Peter Daszak at the NIH-funded EcoHealth Alliance, the DEFUSE grant lists studies that stretch on for several pages and includes research in both the lab and in the field, such as collecting bat viruses from different caves in China to study them back at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. 

Scientists wrote that the studies in the DEFUSE proposal were important because the viruses they planned to collect and engineer were so dangerous. “These viruses are a clear and present danger to our military and to global health security,” read the DEFUSE proposal, “because of their circulation and evolution in bats and periodic spillover into humans.” They also proposed studies that seem more science fiction than science research, such as vaccinating wild bats using aerosolized, lab-created viruses to prevent them from infecting American soldiers in some possible future war.

But one specific study that Baric and the other virologists planned may have had tragic global consequences. The researchers proposed taking the backbone of a bat virus and inserting a spike protein with a furin cleavage site. A furin cleavage site allows viruses to infect the cells of human lungs. To see whether these lab-created viruses could cause SARS-like disease, the DEFUSE researchers planned to test them in mice whose genes had been modified to make their lungs more like those of humans. The particular line of humanized mice Wuhan researchers use in such experiments was created many years ago in Baric’s lab. 

A DARPA official rejected the proposal but wrote that the research was interesting and could merit funding in the future. However, he added that the virologists would need a gain-of-function “risk mitigation plan” if DARPA funded the studies.

A year after DARPA denied this proposal to create chimeric bat viruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a novel bat virus with a furin cleavage site began infecting humans in Wuhan. No other closely related virus has this furin cleavage site.

When members of DRASTIC published the DEFUSE proposal in late 2021, people began pointing the finger at DEFUSE as the blueprint for the COVID virus that had, by this time, killed millions.

“Of all the gin joints in all the towns, in all the world, the virus walks into the city where this research is happening, the year after someone has proposed to put a furin cleavage site into [coronavirus],” author Matt Ridley quipped during a talk on the DEFUSE proposal last month at the NIH. “That’s quite a coincidence.”

Virologists have pushed back, asserting that the DEFUSE proposal was never funded, so the research never took place. However, this argument has been received with widespread skepticism. Research labs have multiple streams of funding, and scientists often do many of the proposed experiments to get initial results before submitting grants.

The most famous example involves University of Utah professor Mario Capecchi. After the NIH rejected a proposed line of research, he used other NIH money to do studies on creating transgenic mice in which specific genes had been turned off. When the NIH later awarded him a grant for research they had previously rejected, they wrote, “We are glad that you didn’t follow our advice.” 

At first rejected for NIH funding, Capecchi’s study led to a Nobel Prize in 2007.

“Scientists tend to write their grants based on research they have already done,” said an NIH official not cleared to speak to the media. She added, “It’s a classic joke inside the research community.”

Congressional investigators questioned Baric about the DEFUSE proposal in a 2024 deposition. Baric testified that, when a SARS virus that never before had a furin cleavage site appeared in the same city as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, he forgot that he had proposed, the year prior, to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS viruses at the Wuhan lab.

“I had forgotten about the DEFUSE proposal, quite frankly,” Baric testified. “The grant was not funded, so I moved on.” 

Virologist and former CDC Director Robert Redfield told RCI that Baric was probably misleading Congress in the interview. He believes virologists did the research in the DEFUSE proposal and then submitted the grant for funding because that’s how science advances. “I know enough about these proposals,” he said. “About 50% of the work you propose in a grant is already done.”

Baric appears to have a habit of forgetting details of virus research when disclosure and transparency might cast a bad light on the scientific field. After giving a private briefing in January 2020 to intelligence officials, where he discussed a possible lab accident in Wuhan, he gave a public talk to congressional staff a month later that omitted the possibility of a lab accident and failed to note that the pandemic virus had a unique furin cleavage site that made it deadly to humans.

Missing Slide

In January 2020 – when the COVID-19 virus began circulating in the U.S. – an official inside the intelligence community emailed Baric about “the current coronavirus situation,” asking him to give a presentation. “Very timely and appropriate,” Baric wrote back. “I was going to email this suggestion to you when I finally shed myself of reporters today.” Although the exact date of his talk is not disclosed, Baric emailed a slide presentation to his intel contact on January 29.

On one of the slides, Baric detailed the possibility that the pandemic started from an accidental release at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which he noted studies bat viruses closely related to the new coronavirus.

That same month, NIH officials and Baric’s academic colleagues began an intensive campaign to discredit as a “conspiracy theory” any question that the pandemic started in a Wuhan lab.

A week after Baric’s private presentation, Fauci appeared on a podcast hosted by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who asked if the COVID virus could have leaked from a Wuhan lab. “I’ve heard these conspiracy theories,” Fauci said, “And like all conspiracy theories, Newt, they’re just conspiracy theories.”

The following day, virologist Vincent Racaniello at Columbia sent Baric and an NIH colleague a disturbing email, recounting rumors that the new virus had a furin cleavage site “that might have been engineered.” 

“If true this is very bad for all of virology research,” wrote Racaniello, in an email made public only last year.

Wain-Hobson said the intent of this email was not transparency. “What Racaniello has in mind is to shut down the discussion,” he said. 

By mid-February 2020, suggestions that the pandemic could have been unleashed by a lab accident in Wuhan were attacked in the media. “[Arkansas Sen.] Tom Cotton keeps repeating a coronavirus fringe theory that scientists have disputed,” reads a Washington Post headline. The Post quoted an MIT professor castigating Cotton for spreading a “conspiracy theory” and said he should focus more on funding virologists. 

After the New York Post published a column arguing that the virus may have leaked from a lab, one of Baric’s colleagues on the DEFUSE proposal, virologist Danielle Anderson, called the claim “appalling” in a supposed fact-check on the piece. Like Baric, Anderson remained mum about the experiments in the DEFUSE proposal. Two days later, Facebook began blocking the New York Post article for promoting “false information.”

At the end of February, Baric gave a public talk to congressional staffers about the virus and presented many of the same slides he used to brief intelligence officials a month prior. However, the slide discussing a possible lab accident in Wuhan did not appear, and Baric made no mention of the DEFUSE experiments. Nor did Baric bring up the virus’s furin cleavage site, which makes it uniquely adapted and deadly to humans.

Baric did not respond to requests for comment about why his public talk to congressional staff did not contain the slide discussing a possible lab accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Former CDC Director Redfield told RCI that in the first month of the pandemic, he was given classified material that highlighted the COVID virus’s furin cleavage site. He then briefed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a SCIF, a secure room that holds secret government documents.

“I said, ‘Mike, this is the smoking gun. This virus came from a lab.’” Redfield added that he believes NIH and allied virologists began a full-court press in February 2020 to smear people as conspiracy theorists about a possible lab accident, because they needed to protect their money and reputations.

Emails make it hard to believe Baric did not understand that his colleagues were mounting a push to smear people questioning the bat-in-the-wild origin story as “conspiracy theorists.” In fact, Baric himself participated in this campaign.

Choreographed Censorship

The effort to shut down debate about the pandemic’s origins gained steam as the death toll mounted rapidly in 2020 and draconian lockdown policies kicked in. During the first few months of the pandemic, virologists published three scientific papers that labeled the possibility of a lab accident a “conspiracy theory.” These papers shut down chatter about a Wuhan accident during the pandemic’s first year.

In what many see as a sign of Baric’s singular connection to the unfolding health catastrophe, the ramifications of his signature on these papers were weighed strategically by his close associates.

The first example was a widely reported February letter in The Lancet, signed by 27 scientists, that cast a Wuhan lab accident as a “conspiracy theory.” Emails show the letter had been orchestrated by Baric’s ally, Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance. 

While gathering signatures, Daszak wrote to Baric saying he should not sign the letter “so it has some distance from us and therefore doesn’t work in a counterproductive way.” 

“We’ll then put it out in a way that doesn’t link it back to our collaboration so we maximize an independent voice,” Daszak added in his email to Baric. The Lancet later added a lengthy disclosure to this letter. Like Baric, Daszak had extensive financial ties to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but he had hidden them from the Lancet editors.

When congressional investigators questioned Baric about the Lancet statement, he testified that he had a conflict of interest due to his collaborations with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. “So I didn’t think it was appropriate to sign it,” Baric said.

Baric’s close ties to the Wuhan Institute of Virology were such a problem that his fellow virologists excluded him from the Nature Medicine “Proximal Origins” of SARS-CoV-2 paper published in March 2020. “We decided not to invite Ralph Baric,” said one of the paper’s authors in a podcast. “Just because we thought he was too close to the WIV.”

This became the most highly cited paper published in the scientific literature for all of 2020. But like the Lancet Letter, the Nature Medicine Proximal Origins paper is widely seen as discredited. Republicans later charged that Fauci had helped orchestrate the paper. House Democrats released a report making the same accusations against Jeremy Farrar, a funder of virologists, then at the Wellcome Trust and now at the World Health Organization. 

Despite his documented, even self-professed, conflict of interest with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, evidence shows that Baric directly influenced the third paper that helped stifle talk about a virus accident in Wuhan.

The commentary, titled “No credible evidence supporting claims of the laboratory engineering of SARS-CoV-2,” appeared in the journal Emerging Microbes & Infections, and became one of the most widely read papers published by Taylor and Francis in 2020. Media outlets such as The Week, Buzzfeed, and Baric’s local newspaper, the Raleigh News & Observer, cited the article in passages that downplayed a possible lab accident. 

However, emails show that both Baric and his Wuhan colleague Shi Zhengli provided secret edits to the manuscript. After one of the paper’s authors sent Baric a draft, asking for his input, he responded, “Sure, but don’t want to be cited in as having commented prior to submission.” After then submitting alterations to the text in track changes, Baric added, “I think the community needs to write these editorials and I thank you for your efforts.”

Although failing to disclose authors on a paper is considered a form of research misconduct,  the journal failed to take action. Five years after publication, the journal added a disclosure in January 2025 that acknowledged Ralph Baric’s contribution to the commentary.

Congressional Cover

Democrats never showed much interest in demanding answers from virologists or the NIH about a possible lab accident once Fauci set the tone that asking such questions was a “conspiracy theory.” But in late 2022, Republicans on the Senate Committee on Health Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) began to finalize a report on the pandemic’s origin. 

Yet that investigation also seems to have been designed to distract from dangerous research and to insulate Baric, in particular.

To give the report more traction among liberals, Republican committee investigators worked very closely with journalist Katherine Eban, whose exclusive on the report’s details ran in Vanity Fair and ProPublica. “A new Senate report concludes that SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – likely resulted from ‘a research-related incident,’” ProPublica posted on social media, announcing Eban’s investigative exclusive. “The report includes evidence of alarming biosecurity issues at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

The Senate report, however, omitted any mention of dangerous gain-of-function research funded by the NIH, and gave no notice of virus studies conducted in the United States, even though Baric is the top researcher in the field. The report pointed the finger only at China as the sole problem with dangerous virus research. 

“It was a complete whitewash and really screwed over the other senators,” explained a former congressional investigator. Instead of uncovering these flaws, Eban’s story for ProPublica and Vanity Fair parroted the report’s findings in a 9,000-word puff piece for the HELP committee, with a highly colorful and flattering account of the staff who wrote it and gave her insider access.

Richard Ebright, a microbiologist at Rutgers University and long-time critic of gain-of-function studies, said he “was surprised the released report omitted discussion of U.S. actions, including the role of USAID, NIH, and EcoHealth Alliance in funding research on SARS-related coronaviruses in Wuhan.” Ebright said Senate staff interviewed him several times about NIH’s funding for gain-of-function research and NIH funding for Wuhan. 

One expert interviewed by the Senate said that staff stripped out any mention of NIH funding for gain-of-function research in the United States, while another pointed the finger at the Republican who ran the committee: Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina, who was months from retirement. 

During his decades in Congress, Burr was a strong supporter of pandemic preparedness and virus research, ushering through legislation that turned on the spigot for biodefense spending, such as the 2006 legislation that created the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). 

In Burr’s final year in the Senate, President Biden’s 2022 budget asked for an historic $88.2 billion for pandemic and biodefense funding spread across five years. Working to finalize the report, Burr then introduced legislation that established ARPA-H within the NIH to support billions more in taxpayer spending for companies to manage pandemic preparedness. 

“One of the greatest successes to come out of the pandemic was the federal government’s partnership with the private sector to deliver life-saving vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics with unprecedented speed,” Burr said in a statement when introducing the ARPA-H bill. 

A few months after Burr sponsored the bill, the NIH awarded a $65 million grant to develop antivirals to a North Carolina biotechnology company called READDI that was co-founded by none other than Ralph Baric.

After retiring, Burr became a lobbyist for  DLA Piper on biodefense and biomedicine, taking with him two of his staffers who worked on the committee. Burr also joined Baric’s company, READDI, as a member of the board.

When asked to comment on this matter, former Senator Burr told RCI that UNC is a client of DLA Piper. “Accordingly, I am unable to comment or provide information, on or off the record.”

House investigators later deposed Baric in 2024, but critics say it was a softball interview in which Baric was not pressed for answers. Democratic investigators spent much of Baric’s deposition trying to defend him, while Republican investigators got tied in knots by Baric’s responses, drowned in technical scientific details. 

As with Senate staff, House investigators gave Vanity Fair’s Katherine Eban exclusive access to the deposition, which she broadcast in a story before the transcript was even released. Vanity Fair’s exclusive portrayed Baric in a positive light as a hard-nosed, objective researcher who remained undecided yet committed to finding out how the pandemic began. Instead of dismissing the lab-leak theory as a conspiracy theory, Baric testified that he had warned his Chinese colleagues that the Wuhan Institute’s safety protocols were insufficient.

And like Senator Burr, Baric pointed the finger at China as the source for any answers to explain if the virus came from a lab. 

A month after deposing Baric, House investigators sent a letter to the director of the FBI demanding to interview one of their agents who they had caught communicating with Baric. The House redacted the name of the agent but wrote that he had been discussing “the substance of the origin debate and how UNC was responding to numerous North Carolina Freedom of Information Act requests.”

House investigators never made anything public afterward about this matter, and the committee investigating the pandemic’s origin has since been disbanded. A source close to the House investigation told RCI that emails show the FBI agent was discussing with Baric how to withhold emails requested by the nonprofit U.S. Right to Know under the Freedom of Information Act.

The FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment.

Accountability at Last?

Once hailed as “the big cheese” of coronavirus research, Baric’s scientific career now seems imperiled with the NIH’s decision to remove him from all grants because of that very same work. “There’s a real possibility that the virus’s birthplace was Chapel Hill,” said former CDC Director Redfield on a 2024 podcast. 

Redfield told RCI that virologists went ahead with dangerous virus experiments for money and fame. “This is a real big source of grant money. It’s a big source of fame. A big source of science prizes,” he said. “They’re not thinking about whether there’s a downside. But there’s a huge downside. And I think we experienced it. It was called the COVID pandemic.” 

Redfield is not alone in assigning some blame for the pandemic to Baric. Columbia University economics professor Jeffrey Sachs published a 2022 essay in PNAS that called for an open inquiry into COVID origins and full transparency by U.S. labs for “independent analysis” of collaborations with Wuhan scientists. At the time, Sachs led a task force commissioned by The Lancet into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Last month, Sachs pointed to Baric as the likely creator of the COVID virus.

The hits to Baric’s reputation are not likely to end. Ruskin has spent over $100,000 in staff time and attorney fees filing over a dozen freedom of information requests, while UNC has never released all its documents. For the year prior to the COVID outbreak, UNC has released only six pages of Baric’s documents that Ruskin has asked to review.

“This is obviously the most important time, because it’s the time when the pandemic started, but only six pages?” Ruskin said. “Why is that? UNC has never explained.” 

A senior official inside the Department of Health and Human Services told RCI that the answer is obvious. After reviewing the government’s classified material, the official said that UNC is terrified that the public will learn that they were complicit in starting the pandemic.

“Baric designed the gun,” he said. “But the Chinese built it, and then they pulled the trigger.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 12:17

Key Bridge Nightmare: Contractor Dropped After Costs Spiral

Left-wing Gov. Wes Moore's claim that the Francis Scott Key Bridge rebuild is the "fastest-moving large infrastructure project in the United States" just hit a major roadblock.

Fox Baltimore's Gary Collins reports that Maryland officials canceled Kiewit Infrastructure Co.'s contract for Phase 2 of the bridge rebuild, the construction phase, after the contractor's proposal reportedly far exceeded state estimates.

BREAKING NEWS: The contract for Phase 2 for the Francis Scott Key Bridge rebuild has been officially cancelled.

The contract is expected to go up for rebid beginning in May. https://t.co/WdquWgcvg8

— Gary M. Collins (@realgarycollins) April 28, 2026

This massive setback raises new questions about whether Moore's administration can actually control costs, properly manage the rebuild, and deliver the "fastest-moving large infrastructure project in the U.S.," given ballooning expenses.

Collins quoted U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who explained the decision to remove Kiewit after its Phase 2 proposal "far exceeded" state estimates. Those estimates have surged from roughly $1.8 billion to more than $5.2 billion.

Phase 2 of the rebuild would have included final design work, steel-pile installation in the Patapsco River, roadway approaches, and bridge-span construction. Now, Moore's administration must scramble to find a new contractor.

Let’s get it!

The Key Bridge no longer under contract 🤯@WCBM680 https://t.co/9fWKpMVCAC pic.twitter.com/5T1cn7M5gr

— Kimberly Klacik (@kimKBaltimore) April 29, 2026

Duffy stated in a federal announcement that the project has been plagued from the beginning by ballooning costs and delays.

"The Trump Administration is always working to secure the best possible team for hardworking American taxpayers," Duffy continued. "It's my job to ensure the American people's tax dollars are used efficiently and that major projects are completed on time and on budget."

He added, "We're putting taxpayers and their priorities first."

Moore said the state remains committed to rebuilding the bridge "safely, quickly, and cost-efficiently," but the cancellation challenges his repeated claim that the project is one of the nation's fastest-moving major infrastructure efforts.

From @GovWesMoore: pic.twitter.com/nq2fou67P6

— Gary M. Collins (@realgarycollins) April 28, 2026

In October, Duffy stated that Moore "hasn't been a good steward with the money. We have also sent a letter to all of our partners saying they have to follow the law. A long time ago, we got rid of contracting based on race and sex."

More than two years after the container ship hit the bridge - there is still no replacement span. Moore's polling numbers are sliding, residents are frustrated with mounting crises plaguing the state, and the latest contract setback only reinforces the perception of dysfunction in the one-party-ruled state by unhinged Democratic Party kings and queens.

Related:

• War On The Shore: Maryland Dem Officials Freak Out At Journalists Ahead Of Exposé On Governor

• Two Years Later, No Key Bridge As Maryland Dems Focus On Tampons In Men's Bathrooms

The result here is growing public anger, eroding confidence in state leadership, and now residents fleeing the sinking state.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:55

AI Agent Deletes Startup's Database In 9 Seconds, Founder Says

Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypt.co,

• PocketOS founder Jeremy Crane claims a Cursor agent running Anthropic’s Claude Opus deleted his company’s production database and backups in nine seconds.

• Crane said the AI later produced a written explanation admitting it violated multiple safety rules.

• The incident raises questions about AI coding tools, Railway’s infrastructure design, and safeguards around destructive API actions.

A software company founder claims an AI coding agent destroyed his firm’s production database, then copped to the mistake and explained how it happened, demonstrating the potential danger of entrusting sensitive access and materials to automated bots.

Jeremy Crane, founder of PocketOS—a software platform used by car rental operators to manage reservations, payments, and vehicle tracking—said in a viral post on X that a Cursor agent running Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 encountered a credential mismatch while working on a routine task in a staging environment.

According to Crane, the agent tried to “fix” the issue by deleting a Railway database volume through a single GraphQL API call. He said the deletion took nine seconds and also wiped volume-level backups. PocketOS’s most recent recoverable backup was three months old, according to Crane.

“Yesterday afternoon, an AI coding agent—Cursor running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6—deleted our production database and all volume-level backups in a single API call to Railway, our infrastructure provider,” Crane wrote. “It took 9 seconds.”

An AI agent (Cursor + Claude Opus 4.6) deleted our production database in 9 seconds using a Railway API call with zero confirmation. Then, when asked why, the agent wrote this → https://t.co/BPLs15jvdM

— JER (@lifeof_jer) April 26, 2026

Crane said he asked the agent why it acted. It then produced what he described as a written “confession.”

“‘NEVER FUCKING GUESS!’” the agent wrote, apparently quoting some instruction that it disobeyed, according to screenshots shared by Crane.

“That’s exactly what I did. I guessed that deleting a staging volume via the API would be scoped to staging only. I didn’t verify. I didn’t check if the volume ID was shared across environments. I didn’t read Railway’s documentation on how volumes work across environments before running a destructive command.”

The AI acknowledged that its own rules prohibit destructive actions without user approval and admitted Crane never asked it to delete anything. It said it acted on its own to try and “fix” the credential mismatch and violated multiple principles, including guessing instead of verifying and failing to understand the consequences of its actions, according to Crane.

Cursor and Anthropic did not immediately respond to requests for comment by Decrypt.

Launched in 2020, PocketOS serves rental businesses that rely on the software for reservations, customer records, and payments. Crane said some customers were handling Saturday morning vehicle pickups without reservation records due to the mishap.

“I have spent the entire day helping them reconstruct their bookings from Stripe payment histories, calendar integrations, and email confirmations,” Crane wrote.

“Every single one of them is doing emergency manual work because of a 9-second API call.”

PocketOS was able to restore operations using a three-month-old backup recovered by Railway, after Founder Jake Cooper connected with Crane and attributed the longer delay to an internal support lapse.

“We recovered the data 30 minutes after I connected with Jer,” Cooper told Decrypt. He said a support engineer believed the issue was already being handled internally after Crane’s original outreach was shared in direct messages, causing the ticket to lapse for more than 24 hours.

Cooper said Railway maintains both user backups and disaster backups and described the incident as a “rogue customer AI” using a fully permissioned API token to call a legacy endpoint that lacked Railway’s “delayed delete” logic.

“We’ve since patched that endpoint to perform delayed deletes, restored the user’s data, and are working with Jer directly on potential improvements to the platform itself,” Cooper said.

While PocketOS was able to restore operations using a three-month-old backup recovered by Railway, Crane said that significant data gaps remain and that he has retained legal counsel.

“This isn’t a story about one bad agent or one bad API,” Crane wrote. “It’s about an entire industry building AI-agent integrations into production infrastructure faster than it’s building the safety architecture to make those integrations safe.”

PocketOS did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Decrypt.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:35

US Oil Exports Soar To New Record High As Inventories Tumble, SPR Drained Most Since October 2022

One week ago we lamented that the record oil inventory drawdown, which has seen over 250 million barrels drained from storage since the start of the war, has not led to higher oil prices (for those who missed it, Goldman forecast that global visible oil inventories are likely to reach record-low levels even in an optimistic scenario where Hormuz flows start to recover by the end of April).

Moments ago the already precarious inventory picture turned even more ominous after the DOE reported that Crude stocks tumbled by a whopping 6.234 million barrels, far more than the 190K draw expected. The huge decline on US crude stockpiles was the largest draw since early February. It took nationwide storage numbers to around 459.5 million barrels. 

But it wasn't just crude: all other products drew as well:

• Crude -6.234MM, Exp. -190K, and much bigger than the 1.8-million-barrel decrease seen by the API on Tuesday
• Gasoline -6.075MM
• Distillates -4.494MM
• Cushing -796K

Gasoline declines in the middle of their predicted range at 6.1 million barrels. That’s the biggest draw since earlier in April, but the bigger story is total supplies falling to their lowest since December. Seasonally, stocks are at their lowest since 2014. Gasoline futures got a nice bump on this, extending their gains to new intraday highs, though the big story, as ever, is the Strait of Hormuz.

Visually

Since the war started, Crude stocks had risen significantly, while gasoline inventories have seen non-stop draws. However, oil has now also inflected lower as it too starts to draw, painting an ominous picture for US gasoline prices which are already at multi-year highs.

The big draw in distillate stocks - the largest since March 2025 - came from the Gulf Coast. That’s now below seasonal levels from 2022 in that region, when global diesel supplies were strained by the war in Ukraine.  Distillate exports out of the US ticked down nominally last week, but they remain pretty elevated, near 1.6 million barrels a day for the fourth straight week as the US once again becomes a key supplier of diesel to the rest of the world.

Stocks of jet fuel, which has been more stressed than nearly every other refined product, ticked up marginally as the US produced the most of the fuel since July 4, 2024, which is a key travel period. In the Gulf Coast, more of the fuel was produced than any time on record.

Despite the big drop in inventories, which also saw the second largest drain in Cushing stocks since the start of the war (and third largest in 2026) dragging total Cushing stocks back under 30mm...

... total US production rose by just 1 barrell/day in the past week to 13.586 million b/d.

Adding insult to injury, the drop in commercial stocks was compounded by a huge 7.121 mm barrel drawdown from the SPR, the biggest since October 2022.

And while US consumers are now facing the highest gas prices in years, at least US producers are rolling in the profits: US exports just hit a new record high as the Iran war sends overseas buyers hunting for replacements to Middle Eastern oil.

The surge in the volatile weekly crude exports figure helped send overall shipments of US oil and fuel abroad to a fresh record high above 14 million barrels a day.

As US crude exports skyrocketed, imports declined, falling to around 5.75 million barrels per day. Most notably, imports into the East Coast hit an all-time low. The region is thirsty for barrels and even imported crude from the US Gulf Coast last week thanks to a shipping waiver signed by President Donald Trump. 

Crude imports from five key Latin American producers slipped in the week ended April 24, dropping by one-fifth to average 893,000 barrels a day. Increased inflows from Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador were more than offset by drops in imports from Brazil and Venezuela. No crude was imported from Brazil for the first time since November.

While it didn't actually need the boost, having soared earlier in the day on continued indefinite Hormuz closure, WTI Crude rose above $105 the highest in two weeks, and up $6 on the day...

... while Brent is about to surpass its post-war highs.

And speaking of gasoline, the four-week average of gasoline demand rose to 8.9 million barrels a day, which is in-line with regular summer driving trends. Concerns of higher gasoline prices -- and $4 gas -- does not yet seem to be reflected in the demand numbers, with the implied demand figure at its highest seasonal level since 2019.

Meanwhile, US refinery runs bounced back and are back above 16 million barrels a day. Oil processing rose despite a small decrease on the Gulf Coast, where Valero continues to attempt a full restart of its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery following a fire in March. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:19

US Sanctions 35 Individuals, Entities To Dismantle Iran's Shadow Banking

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Treasury Department on April 28 imposed sanctions on 35 individuals and entities accused of running Iran’s secret shadow banking network.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during a press briefing in the Brady Briefing Room at the White House in Washington, on April 15, 2026. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Treasury has accused the network of transferring tens of billions of dollars to help Iran dodge U.S. sanctions and finance terrorism.

The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is sanctioning a network of shell companies, exchange houses, and operators connected to Iranian banks, such as Shahr Bank, that have enabled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other Iran-backed armed forces to gain access to the international financial system.

U.S. officials said the networks facilitate payments for illicit Iranian oil sales, purchases of missile components, and transfers to Tehran’s terrorist proxies.

“Iran’s shadow banking system serves as a critical financial lifeline for its armed forces, enabling activities that disrupt global trade and fuel violence across the Middle East,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Illicit funds funneled through this network support the regime’s ongoing terrorist operations, posing a direct threat to U.S. personnel, regional allies, and the global economy. Financial institutions are on notice: Any institution that facilitates or engages with these networks is at risk of severe consequences.”

Those targeted on Tuesday include the Farab Soroush Afagh Qeshm Company, described as overseeing fund movements for Shahr Bank’s clients through foreign front companies. Sorayya Mehri Hajibaba, an employee and foreign exchange expert, was sanctioned for facilitating transfers since at least mid-2023. And Seyyed Mohammed Mehdi Al Ghafur, an Iran-based shadow banking official, was targeted for laundering money on behalf of Shahr Bank via exchange houses.

The action also included the previously sanctioned HMS Trading FZE, along with its Iran-based sister company Tejarat Hermes Energy Qeshm Company. UK-based Shuqun LTD and its owner, Janelyn Eusebio Emperador, drew sanctions for transferring more than $70 million in payments for Iranian crude oil and distillates through 2024 on behalf of the National Iranian Oil Co. Emperador also controls Sanovo LTD and Qianza LTD.

Additional rahbar companies, which oversee shell company networks to process payments tied to Iran’s imports and exports and are linked to major Iranian banks, received sanction designations for operating in the financial sector.

The Treasury also issued new guidance threatening sanctions for entities that make “toll” payments to the Iranian regime or the IRGC in exchange for traversing the Strait of Hormuz.

Conducted under the Treasury’s “Operation Economic Fury,” the move follows earlier sanction efforts, with Bessent saying on Monday that doing business with sanctioned Iranian airlines could mean U.S. sanctions, as he called on foreign governments to block support services for those aircraft as commercial flights resume from Tehran.

The Treasury Department on April 24 sanctioned a Chinese refinery and 40 shipping firms and vessels found to be providing a lifeline to the Iranian oil economy. This came after a March 20 announcement by the United States that it had sanctioned entities it says are tied to the petroleum trade between Iran and China.

Since February 2025, the United States has sanctioned approximately 1,000 Iran-linked persons, vessels, and aircraft in its maximum-pressure campaign.

Sanctions were levied under Executive Order 13902, targeting Iran’s financial sector, and under Executive Order 13224, for counterterrorism. They bar all property of the designated parties under U.S. jurisdiction and prohibit U.S. persons from most dealings with them. Foreign parties also risk penalties for causing violations or evading the rules.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:15

OPEC +/-

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Brent futures topped $115/barrel, after news broke that US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to CNN’s sources, Iran is expected to submit a revised proposal in the next few days. However, it is unclear why Trump would accept this new version, unless Iran is suddenly willing to make concessions on its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Trump simply declared victory – suggesting that pressure on the president to end the war quickly is building. However, the White House states that they will “not be rushed into a bad deal.” Indeed, as the Wall Street Journal reports, the President prefers “decisive victories” and told his aides to prepare for an “extended blockade.” Military options remain on the table, but Reuters’ sources note that the cost of a full-scale war is now higher than it was at the start of the ceasefire. Iran has used the time to dig out materiel that was buried in the US bombings.

In short, negotiations between the two sides remain as stuck as the ships trapped in the Persian Gulf. And odds of a military campaign that quickly breaks the stalemate appear to have lessened. So, with no end in sight for the closure of Hormuz, futures prices are closing in on physical prices.

But news that the United Arab Emirates will withdraw from OPEC as of 1 May stemmed the advance of futures prices. The Ministry of Energy says the government decided to OPECxit, as the country wants to grow its output “based on national interest” and its commitment to “meet the market’s pressing needs.” But, as our energy strategists note, this does not change anything about the near-term supply-demand balance. Only after the Iran war ends, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens can we discuss the UAE ramping up oil production.

But the UAE’s departure could have broader ramifications for both OPEC and the region. If other countries follow the example set by the Emirates, it erodes the OPEC’s cartel.

The balance of powers in the region already seems to be shifting. The announcement followed days after the UAE negotiated a dollar swap line with the US, and after Israel sent an Iron Dome system and personnel to operate the air defences to the country. And it emphasises the growing rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as the UAE moves more clearly into the US camp – which includes Israel.

As gradually as financial markets seem to be pricing in the impact of the war in Iran, so quickly are consumers taking it into account. Inflation expectations have risen rapidly in the latest round of the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. The sharp increase in 1-year expectations is not too surprising, but notably consumers’ expectations of inflation 3 years ahead rose equally quickly – from 2.5% to 3.0%.

That puts medium-term inflation expectations back around the highs of the Russian gas crisis, even though the relative price shock has been much more muted so far. It suggests that memories of the previous energy crisis are making consumers more wary of new price shocks. We would not consider this a de-anchoring of inflation expectations yet, but it does underscore the risk that second-round effects could take hold via wage or price setting more quickly.

This adds some pressure on the ECB to act this week already. Our base case remains a hold, but the survey suggests that the probability of a hike may be a bit higher than the 10% implied by money markets. In any case, policymakers will not be very comfortable with their decision.

Adding to that unease, Bruegel has calculated that about 80% of EU governments’ energy support measures are untargeted. The largest commitments are directed towards lowering fuel excise duties or VAT. As Bruegel notes, that is contrary to the recommendations of the European Commission and the European Central Bank. At €10.5 billion, the total amount committed to energy support measures is still small, but untargeted measures increase the risk that the energy price shock could become a broader and more persistent inflationary pressure

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 11:00

Bloom Energy Erupts On Beat, Guidance Upgrade As On-Site Data Center Power Demand Soars

Clean-power company Bloom Energy surged early in the U.S. cash session after reporting earnings Tuesday after the close, raising its full-year revenue and margin guidance on rising demand from data centers and other commercial customers. 

The maker of solid oxide fuel cell systems, branded as Bloom Energy Servers, that generate electricity on-site for customers, posted a profit of $70.7 million, or 23 cents a share, compared with a loss of $23.8 million, or 10 cents a share, from the same quarter one year ago. 

On an adjusted basis, earnings came in at 44 cents per share in the first quarter, beating analysts' estimates tracked by Bloomberg of 8.4 cents per share.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS 44c, estimate 8.4c

EPS 23c 

Revenue $751.1 million, estimate $535.3 million

• Product revenue $653.3 million, estimate $397.9 million
• Installation sales $25.9 million, estimate $49.2 million
• Service revenue $61.9 million, estimate $71.7 million
• Electricity revenue $9.90 million, estimate $14.1 million

Adjusted Ebitda $143.0 million, estimate $52.9 million

Adjusted net income $138.1 million, estimate $26.7 million

"We at Bloom are ushering in the era of digital power for the digital age. Bloom is rapidly becoming the standard and "go-to choice" for on-site power," Bloom CEO KR Sridhar wrote in an earnings press release.

For the full year forecast, here's what Bloom expects:

Sees revenue $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion, saw $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion, estimate $3.25 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees adj. gross margin about 34%, saw about 32%, estimate 31.9%v

Shares of Bloom jumped as much as 20% in the cash session to a new record high.

Wall Street analysts were broadly positive (commentary courtesy of Bloomberg):

Citi (neutral, PT raised to $281 from $229)

• Analyst Vikram Bagri sees the first quarter revenue beat as strong, driven by capacity expansions and product sales

• Sees second-quarter revenue rising on continued strong momentum, cost discipline and improving gross margins and operating leverage

• "International opportunities continue to progress, albeit at a measured pace amid a challenging geopolitical and energy backdrop, with the majority of AI‑driven power demand currently concentrated in the US"

Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT raised to $310 from $184)

• Analyst David Arcaro sees Bloom's outlook as attractive with revenue and profit set to increase and margins continuing to expand

• "We believe the confirmation of the recent Oracle deal likely contributed to the increase, with at least 1.2 GW being delivered over 2026 and 2027, and the company also suggested broadbased strength across data center and C&I end markets"

• Sees manufacturing efficiencies improving gross margins

Jefferies (hold, PT raised to $207 from $187)

• Analyst Dushyant Ailani sees the guidance raise as positive with gross margins improving on cost optimization and productivity

• "BE is increasingly moving beyond the 'bridge solution' narrative, supported by its standalone microgrid deployment with Oracle and similar discussions with other customers"

• Sees Bloom reaching at least 2 GW of capacity by year-end 2026 as additions continue

Bloom peers, including Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ballard Power Systems, also moved higher.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:45

Fed Chair Pick Warsh Approved By Key Senate Committee Along Party Lines

The drama over Kevin Warsh's nomination as Trump's pick for next Fed chair appears to be over.

Moments ago, Warsh won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday in a 13-11 party-line vote, putting him on track to be confirmed by the full Senate before Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15, Bloomberg reproted. 

Warsh’s nomination had been held up by Republican Senator Thom Tillis until the Department of Justice agreed last week to drop (for now) a criminal probe into cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Tillis, who saw the probe as “bogus” and a threat to the Fed’s independence on monetary policy, said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he received assurances the department wouldn’t reopen the case unless the Fed’s inspector general, who is also reviewing the project, sends a criminal referral.

As expected, Democrats weren’t won over: Senator Elizabeth Warren warned that Trump is still intent on controlling the Fed; Democrats have also demanded an end to a legal pursuit of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

“The stink of stagflation is in the air,” Warren said. She said confirmation of Warsh would help Trump dominate the Fed’s monetary policy. “Trump has not been subtle about his takeover,” she said.

The vote makes real the prospect of a Warsh-led Fed that promises the biggest shake up of the US central bank in years. Having raised the prospect of “regime change” as part of his bid to win Trump’s nomination, Warsh has promised to shrink the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, establish a new framework for managing inflation and change how the central bank communicates with the public. He has, however, offered few details on how he might pursue each of these goals.

Warsh is almost certain to face heavy pressure from Trump over monetary policy. In a CNBC interview on April 21, the president said he’d be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates as soon as he took office.

Meanwhile, Warsh has vowed to protect the Fed’s independence. In his hearing last week Warsh blamed the Fed for allowing inflation to surge following the Covid-19 pandemic. While he said high prices remain a problem for Americans, he also floated the idea of a new framework for dealing with persistent inflation, though didn’t offer specifics. He also steered clear of committing to a near-term path for interest rates and suggested Fed officials have made a habit of providing financial markets with too much guidance on where policy is headed.

The combination of Warsh’s calls for a smaller balance sheet, new ways to think about inflation and communication changes put Warsh in the spotlight to explain how he’ll defend the Fed’s independence, said EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

“Taken together, this points to a more centralized, less transparent and potentially more politically-exposed policy framework,” he said.

Earlier, Warsh and his wife, Jane Lauder, reported assets worth at least $192 million in financial disclosures filed as part of his nomination.  But his total net worth is likely much larger and makes him one of the wealthiest Fed officials in the central bank’s history. Bloomberg has estimated his wife’s net worth at $2.5 billion, many of which are market-dependent. Democratic lawmakers called for more scrutiny of Warsh’s assets, while Warsh has promised to quickly divest from certain funds for which he hasn’t disclosed the underlying assets, citing confidentiality agreements.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:23

Max Pressure: U.S. Prepares For Extended Hormuz Blockade As Treasury Warns Sanction Risks Linked To China's "Teapot" Refineries

The U.S. is intensifying pressure on Iran and China across two fronts.

First, on the military side, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told top aides to prepare for an extended U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would strangle Tehran's oil revenue.

Second, on the economic side, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control is warning financial institutions about sanctions exposure related to Chinese independent "teapot" refineries, particularly in Shandong Province, due to their continued purchases and refining of Iranian crude.

Taken together, the message from President Trump to Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is very clear: Washington is squeezing Iran's oil revenue at both ends of the supply chain, through a continued blockade of the Hormuz chokepoint that enables exports and the Chinese refining network.

"China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran's oil exports, with teapot refineries accounting for the majority of these imports. This revenue ultimately benefits the Iranian regime, its weapons programs, and its military," Treasury explained in a press release, adding, "Some Chinese teapot refineries have used the U.S. financial system to conduct dollar-denominated transactions and procure U.S. goods."

What OFAC is doing is urging banks to tighten controls, conduct enhanced due diligence on transactions involving China-based refineries, and communicate sanctions expectations to correspondent banks.

Treasury also imposed sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their roles in Iran's shadow banking sector.

The reason the Treasury singled out Shandong Province is that the area in China is a core hub for China's independent refineries.

Efforts to end the US-Iran war, now entering the third month, have morphed from an air campaign against Tehran to an economic war with hopes that the Trump administration can economically squeeze Tehran into a favorable peace deal that includes winding down its nuclear program.

"Iran's shadow banking system serves as a critical financial lifeline for its armed forces, enabling activities that disrupt global trade and fuel violence across the Middle East," Bessent said in a statement, quoted by Reuters.

"Illicit funds funneled through this network support the regime's ongoing terrorist operations, posing a direct threat to U.S. personnel, regional allies, and the global economy," Bessent said, adding any institution that facilitated or engaged with these networks was at risk of "severe consequences."

OFAC has already imposed about 1,000 sanctions on Iran-related individuals, ships, and aircraft as part of a campaign to exert maximum economic pressure on Iran's shadow banking.

Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, told Reuters that the Trump administration should go after Chinese banks that have supported Tehran.

"Washington keeps talking about waging a maximum pressure campaign, but it is still avoiding the one move that would actually matter," Erickson said. "If you are not willing to target the Chinese banks propping up the regime in Tehran, you are not going for the jugular, you are running a charade."

The U.S. economic pressure campaign on Tehran, as well as China, comes as Trump travels to Beijing next month to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:05

Bank of Canada Keeps Rates On Hold As It "Looks Through War's Immediate Impact On Inflation"

As expected, the Bank of Canada - which was the day's first G5 central bank to hit the tape ahead of the Fed's decision at 2pm ET - held interest rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected, saying adjustments to borrowing costs would likely be small if the economy and inflation evolve as expected, while stating that it is looking through the war's immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.

“A policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate to support adjustment in the economy and return inflation to target,” BOC Governor Tif Macklem said adding that “There may still be a need to adjust the policy rate depending on how the risks evolve. But if the economy evolves broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can expected to be small."

At the same time, officials flagged major risks to their outlook, including a review of the North American trade deal, the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing damage from the impacts of US tariffs, which could all require different responses for monetary policy.

Macklem explicitly outlined how officials may have to adjust borrowing costs more significantly in some scenarios. He noted that while additional US trade restrictions could prompt cuts to the policy rate, rising and persistently elevated energy prices would lead to tightening.

“If oil prices continue to increase, and particularly if they remain elevated, the risk that higher energy prices become generalized inflation increases,” Macklem said. “If this starts to happen, monetary policy will have more work to do — there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”

Macklem said Canada is being buffeted by global events and geopolitical uncertainties, higher global energy prices are pushing inflation up, and monetary policy is focused on ensuring jump in energy prices does not turn into persistent inflation

The governor said the BOC has three key messages:

1. Canada is being buffeted by global events and geopolitical uncertainties, but our economy is growing and is expected to continue to grow.
2. After more than a year with inflation close to the 2% target, higher global energy prices are pushing inflation up. The surge in gasoline prices combined with still-elevated food price inflation is squeezing more Canadians.
3. Monetary policy is focused on ensuring the jump in energy prices does not turn into persistent inflation, while helping the economy adjust to global headwinds. We are committed to keeping inflation low and stable overtime.

Middle East

• Since previous forecast in January, the war in the Middle East has sent global energy prices sharply higher, increased financial market volatility and disrupted shipping for fertilizer and other commodities. This has lowered the outlook for global growth while boosting inflation.

Growth 

• Growth looks to have resumed after contracting at the end of 2025. Consumer and government spending are contributing to growth, while US tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment.
• The conflict in the Middle East will affect the composition of growth, but the impact on overall growth is expected to be small because higher global oil prices increase the value of our energy exports even as they squeeze consumers and many businesses.

Policy

• Our baseline forecast assumes oil prices will come down and US tariffs will remain at the current levels. If this holds true, a policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate to support adjustment in the economy and return inflation to target.
• There may still be a need to adjust the policy rate depending on how the risks evolve. But if the economy evolves broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small.
• However, uncertainty is unusually elevated, and there are many possible outcomes. Monetary policy may need to be nimble.

Outlook

• We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
• Governing Council is looking through the war's immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.
• As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

“While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast,” the bank said. “Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices.” Previously, the bank said it could not predict the length and scale of the Iran conflict, calling the economic impact “highly uncertain.”

The monetary policy report notes that its projections for inflation and growth are highly conditional on the assumption that US tariffs remain unchanged and that oil prices gradually decline to $75 per barrel by mid-2027.

Both the Iran war and US trade policy pose both upside and downside risks to inflation, the bank said. While a prolonged conflict in Middle East could stoke inflation further, it could also have a more negative impact on global growth.

The bank also warned that businesses could face more costs adjusting to US tariffs, which would risk fueling inflation. But tariffs could also weigh on demand by more than expected and a review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement scheduled for July 1 could yield an outcome that is worse than assumed, dragging on growth and inflation.

The bank left its estimate of the neutral rate — the level of borrowing costs that neither restrict nor stimulate economic growth — between 2.25% and 3.25%.

In kneejerk reaction,the USDCAD rose from 1.3692 to 1.3710 as the BOC acknowledged that it will look through the war's immediate impact on inflation. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 10:00

JetBlue Plans 30-40% "Fuel Recapture" Fare Hikes, Capacity Cuts To Cover Rising Costs

Thanks to the war in Iran, JetBlue Airlines is passing the cost along to us - announcing during Q1 earnings on Tuesday that while the airline had strong revenue performance, prices are going up due to rising fuel costs. 

A JetBlue Embraer 190 taxis on the tarmac at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on June 29, 2021. Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

"While the macro environment, particularly fuel, has become more volatile, we are taking decisive actions to manage what is within our control, including adjusting capacity, optimizing revenue, and maintaining disciplined cost control," said CEO Joanna Geraghty. 

"At the same time, we are seeing clear evidence that JetForward is on track and working, and we remain confident it is the right plan to transform our business and get us closer to our financial priorities."

As the Epoch Times notes further, JetForward is the airline’s turnaround strategy introduced in 2024, concentrating flights between the Northeast and leisure destinations such as Florida and the Caribbean.

This announcement follows last month’s notice that the airline would increase checked baggage fees by at least $10.

Going forward, JetBlue named specific actions it will take to deal with increased fuel costs, including 30 percent to 40 percent “fuel recapture” pricing during the second quarter, rising to 100 percent by early 2027. Using this strategy, the airline plans to offset the escalating costs by recovering those expenses through higher ticket prices, fees, and other adjustments.

The airline also intends to cut its flight capacity, with the reductions focused on off-peak travel periods, and implement additional cost-saving measures.

It revealed that the average fuel price during the first quarter was $2.96 per gallon—an increase of $0.39 per gallon year over year, or a 15.2 percent increase. Its first quarter 2026 system capacity also decreased by 1.7 percent year over year.

Still, the company’s operating revenue increased by 4.7 percent year over year to $2.2 billion during the first quarter, while its operating revenue per available seat mile grew 6.5 percent year over year.

The airline’s operating expense per available seat mile also increased during the first quarter by 8.3 percent year over year.

As a result, the company reported a net loss of $319 million, or $0.86 per share, for the quarter, compared with a loss of $208 million, or $0.59 per share, in the first quarter of 2025.

Some positive highlights of the first quarter include $500 million in committed aircraft financing, with the option of increasing that by an additional $250 million, and the repayment of $325 million of 2021 convertible notes. JetBlue ended the first quarter with $2.4 billion in liquidity.

“As we look ahead, we are seeing continued strength across the booking curve, with momentum carrying into the second quarter supporting our unit revenue outlook,” JetBlue’s president, Marty St. George, said in the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:50

Core Durables Goods Surge For 12th Straight Month, Push Bond Yield Higher

After a recent string of 'soft' survey data, this morning we get some 'hard' data and it was far stronger than expected.

Preliminary headline durable goods orders for March rose 0.8% MoM (better than the 0.5% MoM exp), and the first increase after a three month decline to start the year (which was the first 3-month decline since Nov 2019).

The increase took place despite continued weakness in aircraft orders manifesting as a 21.1% drop in nondefense aircraft and parts in March. 

Meanwhile, core durable goods orders (prelim for March ) rose even more, up by 0.9% MoM (and stronger than the 0.4% expected.

That was 12 straight months of gains, pulling core orders up 7.62% YoY - the most since July 2022.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for investment in equipment, surged by 3.3% MoM after an upward revised 1.6% increase a month earlier.

Finally, shipments figures (which plug into GDP) were also comfortably stronger than expected (+1.2% in March versus +0.6% forecast), which suggests upside risks to Q1 forecasts.

It remains to be seen, however, how the war impacted demand for capital goods. 

Bond yields rose after the better-than-expected housing and capital goods data. The war is an ongoing risk that can belatedly sour hard economic data, but soft data is more up to date. On that front, we have yet to see the manufacturing ISM turn down. As Bloomberg's Simon White notes (in the chart below) the ISM leads durable goods new orders by about three months.

Meanwhile, as reported earlier, housing data for March also held up well, largely thanks to housing starts, driven by one-unit structures, even as multi-unit ones fall. Building permits, on the other hand, were ugly, but that is a very forward looking leading indicator, and was likely driven by the spike in rates. 

The US economy is overall in remarkably good shape given the age of the cycle. That should keep yields supported. However, the longer energy prices remain elevated, that will become more in question.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:43

O-I Glass Plunges As Gulf Energy Shock Hits Earnings Outlook

Glass bottle and jar company O-I Glass plunged the most in premarket trading in more than six years after it slashed its full-year adjusted EPS outlook, blaming higher energy costs tied to the Gulf-related energy shock.

The major glass-container manufacturer, producing bottles and jars for the beer, wine, spirits, beverage, and food-packaging markets, now expects adjusted EPS of $1.00 to $1.50, down sharply from its prior forecast of $1.65 to $1.90 and well below the $1.67 Bloomberg Consensus estimate. 

Slide 8 detailed O-I Glass' Full Year 2026 Outlook impacted by the energy shock in the Middle East:

The chart on the right is O-I Glass reassuring investors that it has hedged or mitigated a large portion of its European natural gas exposure. It says 75% to 80% of its 2026 year-to-go EU natural gas exposure is covered at rates better than current index prices, and more than 50% is already mitigated for 2027.

First-quarter results were also weak (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Adjusted EPS 5c vs. 40c y/y, estimate 11c

• Net sales $1.54 billion, -1.7% y/y, estimate $1.47 billion

• Americas net sales $871 million, -0.2% y/y, estimate $826.3 million

• Europe net sales $655 million, -1.8% y/y

• Americas oper. profit $142 million, +0.7% y/y

• Europe operating profit $0 vs. $68 million y/y

From early February through Tuesday’s close, O-I Glass shares had already fallen roughly 40% as investors priced in the Gulf energy shock now working its way through the company’s cost structure. Shares are down another roughly 18% in premarket trading. If losses hold, it would mark the stock’s largest one-day drop since March 9, 2020. 

O-I Glass' deteriorating outlook highlights how quickly the energy shock spread worldwide (read Goldman). 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:35

Housing Starts Surge To Highest Since 2024 As Permits Unexpectedly Crater

With mortgage rates still relatively low, despite a recent jump in interest rates, and a top-down push for affordability, Housing Starts for March soared while the more forward-looking Building Permits disappointed, unexpectedly plunged.

Housing starts soared 10.8% MoM in March (far more than the -0.4% expected drop) while Permits plunged 10.8% MoM (and worse than the -0.4% decline expected)...

This pushed the SAAR totals for Starts to 1.502 million, far above the 1.390 million expected, and the highest since Dec 2024, but Building Permits fell to their lowest since Aug 2025

Under the hood, Single-Family Starts jumped 9.7%, the most since Feb 2025, and Multi-Family Starts soared 9.6% MoM, while Permits did a mirror image, plunging 23.5% MoM (biggest drop since June 2023) and Single-Family permits plunged 3.8%

The lowest mortgage rate since Aug 2022 (aside for the modest Iran war jump) likely helped spark homebuilder appetite to start building, even if it did precisely the reverse with permits. 

Overall, the report was a mixed bag overall, and tough to project given the impact of surging oil which translated into even higher yields on the mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:09

Wingstop Tumbles As Chicken Demand Falters, Guidance Cut

Wingstop shares fell the most in six months in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year outlook and reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter sales, citing a pullback in traffic as management pointed to "continued pressure on consumer spending."

The chicken chain, with 2,653 locations across the US, now expects 2026 domestic same-store sales to decline at a low single-digit rate, down from its prior forecast of flat to low single-digit growth. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg forecast a .4% contraction this year, after lowering their forecast from about 1.3% in mid-February when Wingstop last reported earnings.

First-quarter domestic same-store sales fell 8.7%, exceeding the 5.4% decline expected by analysts. Adjusted EPS of $1.18 topped estimates, helped by lower-than-expected costs, including chicken wing costs.

Here's a snapshot of first-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Total domestic stores comp sales growth -8.7%, estimate -5.43% (Bloomberg Consensus)

Adjusted EPS $1.18 vs. 99c y/y, estimate $1.03

Revenue $183.7 million, +7.4% y/y, estimate $188.4 million

Adjusted Ebitda $65.4 million, +9.9% y/y, estimate $63.4 million

Total location count 3,153, +3.2% q/q, estimate 3,154

• Domestic franchise restaurants 2,596, +15% y/y, estimate 2,599 
• International franchise restaurants 500, +29% y/y, estimate 497

Cost of sales $24.7 million, +8.2% y/y, estimate $26.1 millions

SG&A expense $34.4 million, +9.6% y/y, estimate $35.7 million

Net addition of stores 97, -23% y/y, estimate 90

Important to note: Wingstop's core customer base appears to skew younger, making it highly exposed to lower-income consumer pressures, such as the national average gasoline price topping $4 per gallon.

Wingstop bust-cycle... 

We have highlighted what has happened in convenience stores and gas stations when gas topped the politically sensitive line of $4 last month.

Read:

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Related:

• Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters

Perhaps Wingstop needs to run promotions or offer 'BNPL' loans for their chicken orders to bring back younger customers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 09:02