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Most Adults Can Safely Drink Up To 5 Cups Of Coffee A Day: American Heart Association

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Most adults can safely drink five cups of coffee a day, according to the American Heart Association.

The organization said in a July 20 statement that synthesizes research on caffeine that the latest studies indicate that for most adults, consuming up to 400 milligrams of caffeine a day - or up to five 8-ounce cups of coffee - without added sugar and milk is not only safe, but appears to result in a lower risk of cardiovascular disease.

A cup of coffee in Culver City, Calif., in a file photograph. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Higher levels of caffeine, such as those found in energy drinks, may harm the heart and blood vessels, the association said.

Most of the studies underpinning the guidance come from observational research, although there are a growing number of randomized, controlled trials that examined the relationship between caffeine and various health problems, including a trial that found no impact on glucose levels.

The data suggest that moderate consumption of caffeine lowers the risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke, among other problems, but that coffee consumption does increase premature ventricular contractions, or extra heartbeats, the group said. It indicates high doses of caffeine can lead to significant increases in blood pressure, particularly in people who already had high blood pressure. And it shows that consuming unfiltered coffee, which contains the lipid cafestol, raised serum cholesterol.

"Brewing method influences lipids," Dr. Abdulla Damluji, an interventional cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic who was not involved with the new guidance, wrote on X. "Advise patients concerned about low density lipoprotein cholesterol to prefer paper filtered or instant coffee over French press, Greek or Turkish, or boiled coffee, because cafestol in unfiltered coffee raises cholesterol."

Scientists behind the statement said there is a need for more data and noted that reactions to caffeine can vary among people.

"The data suggests that up to about three to five cups may have benefit and almost certainly is not harmful, but that doesn't mean that consuming three to five drinks is better than having one drink per day," Dr. Gregory Marcus, chair of the volunteer group that wrote the guidance, said in a video statement.

"So generally, the evidence suggests that people should listen to their bodies if consuming one cup of caffeinated coffee is enough and consuming two is uncomfortable. Individuals should not increase how much caffeine they're consuming for health reasons."

Researchers should prioritize studying caffeine in isolation from other ingredients in caffeinated beverages and examine whether introducing coffee to people who do not currently drink it yields positive health outcomes, the group said.

Most of the authors did not list any possible conflicts of interest. One listed being an unpaid consultant for the Institute for the Advancement of Food and Nutrition Sciences and working with manufacturers such as Keurig, and another said he consults for Boston Scientific Corp, which makes pacemakers and other devices for people with heart issues.

The heart association in 2025 had advised children to avoid caffeine, and had in the past said that adults could derive benefits from coffee but that drinking two or more cups a day could double the risk of heart death in people suffering from severe hypertension.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 10:00

Border Patrol Records 14 Straight Months Of Zero Releases At Southern Border

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Border Patrol released zero illegal immigrants into the United States from the southern border for the 14th consecutive month in June.

Border enforcement is at “historic levels,” and illegal crossings last month remained significantly low, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a July 16 statement. Border Patrol apprehended 9,848 people at the southwest border last month, 94 percent lower than the monthly average under the previous administration. It was also lower than the number of people “apprehended in 4 days” in June 2024.

“As I have said many times, leadership and policy matter. When laws are enforced, fewer people will break the law. Under the leadership of President [Donald] Trump and [Homeland Security] Secretary [Markwayne] Mullin, CBP is fully enforcing our immigration and border security laws,” CBP Commissioner Rodney S. Scott said in the statement.

“CBP is preventing dangerous criminal aliens and illicit narcotics from entering our communities, enhancing the safety of every American for generations to come.”

Last month, the Border Patrol received a funding boost for its anti-illegal immigration efforts when Trump signed the Secure America Act into law. The legislation provides $70 billion to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol through Sept. 30, 2029, beyond Trump’s current term.

The bill allocated $22 billion for Border Patrol to recruit, train, equip, and pay agents and staff members. Out of the $22 billion, about $13 billion was specifically set aside for immigration enforcement operations. The legislation also granted $5 billion to be used for border security technology and screening systems.

After the bill was passed by the House on June 9, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) justified the legislation, saying Democrats will not be able to defund Border Patrol and ICE for the next few years. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said the bill supported law enforcement in the country.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) criticized the funding as a “disastrous bill” to bankroll ICE and Border Patrol, according to a June 12 statement from Duckworth’s office.

“There are an infinite number of ways we could be working to help Illinoisans get by, and it’s despicable that Trump would rather bankroll ICE and Border Patrol’s reign of terror than keep his promise and lower costs for the middle class,” Duckworth said in the statement.

2025–2029 Strategy

As the CBP counters the influx of illegal immigrants into the United States, the agency has reported strong growth in its Border Patrol workforce.

In a June 24 statement, CBP said that 21,471 Border Patrol agents were serving on America’s front lines—the highest employee count in the agency’s 102-year history.

CBP credited investments from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by Trump last year, for fueling “increased applicant interest” and enabling the agency to attract top talent.

CBP said in a July 16 statement that it was filling in mission-critical roles in law enforcement and mission operations support positions at various locations throughout the United States, and it stated that it planned to conduct a virtual event on July 23 to highlight the career opportunities open to military spouses and veterans.

“CBP is an extremely welcoming employer for veterans and military spouses,” CBP Office of Human Resources Management Assistant Commissioner Andrea Bright said in the statement.

According to the 2025–2029 Border Patrol Strategy, the agency aims to counter illegal immigrant influx by expanding physical infrastructure, such as wall barriers, checkpoints, and permanent towers, in all regions of the country.

The agency seeks to deploy advanced autonomous surveillance systems as part of enhancing its detection and identification capabilities. Moreover, Border Patrol plans to proactively forecast high-risk crossing patterns and “strategically position resources to disrupt and deter illicit activities.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 09:20

GLP-1 Fight: Novo Sues Eli Lilly Over Nationwide "Deceptive Advertising" Campaign

Novo Nordisk wrote in a press release that it is suing GLP-1 rival Eli Lilly in federal court in New Jersey, alleging nationwide "deceptive advertising" for Zepbound and Mounjaro. The company claims Lilly misleads consumers by comparing Lilly's highest doses with lower doses of Novo's Wegovy and Ozempic.

Novo claims Lilly's Zepbound advertising campaign relies on outdated studies that exclude the 7.2-milligram dose of Wegovy, approved in March 2026, which produced an average weight loss of about 19%. Novo also stated that there has been no head-to-head trial comparing the highest approved doses of the two drugs.

"A lawsuit, filed today in federal court, challenges a nationwide pattern of deceptive advertising which confuses consumers by using outdated studies to compare the highest injectable doses of Lilly's medicines against lower doses of Novo Nordisk's injectable medicines for obesity and type 2 diabetes," Novo wrote in the release.

What Novo seeks:

Through this action, Novo Nordisk is seeking a permanent injunction requiring Lilly to pull its misleading comparative advertising across all platforms and to conduct a corrective advertising campaign. We have also communicated to Lilly that if they do not voluntarily pull these ads, Novo Nordisk intends to file a formal motion with the Court in the coming days seeking a preliminary injunction to immediately block them, with evidence that consumers are being confused and misled by Lilly's ads.

The lawsuit comes as Novo and Lilly battle for share of a global GLP-1 market projected to exceed $120 billion by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Novo entered the obesity market first with Wegovy, but Lilly has since overtaken its rival with Zepbound and now leads in sales.

The divergence is reflected in their share prices: Novo's stock is flat this year and trading at lows last seen in 2021, while Lilly is at record highs.

Novo is pursuing a turnaround under its new CEO, expanding partnerships with telehealth companies and rolling out a new oral weight-loss drug. Will that be enough to reverse the stock?

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 09:00

"Demand Remains Strong": GM Beats Expectations, Lifts Guidance For Second Time

GM beat Wall Street's second-quarter expectations on Tuesday, posting adjusted earnings of $3.57 per share on $48.03 billion in revenue as profitability improved despite softer vehicle sales. Adjusted EBIT reached $3.94 billion, up from $3.0 billion a year earlier, helped by lower tariff-related costs and stronger operating performance, according to Yahoo Finance.

The Detroit automaker also lifted its full-year guidance for the second time in 2026.

It's amazing what happens when the federal government isn't pressuring your business to convert entirely into an entirely new unprofitable line of products because "climate change"...

The report says that GM now expects adjusted EBIT of $14 billion to $16 billion and adjusted earnings of $12 to $14 per share, citing improving EV economics, modest pricing gains, regulatory benefits, and continued efforts to offset tariff expenses.

"Customer demand in North America remains strong driven by our very attractive lineup of pickups and SUVs," CEO Mary Barra wrote in a letter to shareholders. She added that the company's North American adjusted EBIT margin climbed to 8.6%, while GM continued to "lower our warranty costs, reduce EV losses, and increase operating efficiency."

The stronger earnings came even as U.S. deliveries slipped 4.2% to about 715,000 vehicles during the quarter. GM attributed much of the decline to discontinued models, including the Cadillac XT4, XT6, and Chevrolet Malibu, along with a steep drop in electric vehicle demand after the federal EV tax credit expired and pulled purchases into late 2025.

The company said it has recorded roughly $4.5 billion in EV-related charges so far this year, with the total impact rising to $7.2 billion when non-cash items are included. Sales of the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Blazer EV, and GMC Hummer EV all fell sharply, although GM retained the No. 2 position in the U.S. EV market behind Tesla.

Demand for GM's profitable truck and SUV lineup helped cushion the slowdown. The GMC Sierra posted a record second quarter, while the Chevrolet Traverse and Trailblazer also delivered strong sales gains. GM said it accomplished this while keeping incentives below the industry average and pushing average transaction prices above $52,400, though executives acknowledged affordability remains a headwind as elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on consumers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 08:20

Domino's US Sale Growth Hits Five-Quarter Low As Budget Diners Pull Back

Domino's Pizza posted its softest US comparable-sales growth in five quarters as inflation and the national average price for regular gasoline above $4 a gallon pressured working-poor consumers.

Second-quarter same-store sales rose a measly .1%, in line with estimates but trailing the growth expected across much of the quick-service restaurant industry (QSR).

Snapshot of 2Q earnings results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Total domestic stores comp sales growth +0.1%, estimate +0.11% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Domestic franchise comparable sales growth 0%, estimate +0.07%
• Domestic co-owned comparable sales growth +2.1%, estimate +0.55%

Revenue $1.19 billion, +4.3% y/y, estimate $1.18 billion

International comparable sales -0.1%, estimate +0.62%

EPS $4.07 vs. $3.81 y/y, estimate $4.18

Net addition of stores 209, +16% q/q, estimate 199

Income from operations $232 million, +3.1% y/y, estimate $225.5 million

Domino's shares were unchanged premarket trading. Although US same-store sales were roughly flat, the figures "were better than we and investors feared," TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles wrote in a note.

Will the stock be able to stage another 2023-style bounce of the $300 level?

Citi analyst Sam Teeger noted:

DPZ noted that category growth in pizza is being driven by the dine-in channel as some pizza consumers are returning to pre-Covid habits of wanting a dine-in experience. Independent QSR pizza restaurants have been the biggest beneficiary of this shift. We are careful not to read too much into this as these comments were more focused on the US market.

Here is the Rothschild & Co analyst Edward Lewis' take on 2Q earnings:

Domino's Pizza reported second-quarter results that were in line on comparable sales but a miss on earnings. Revenue of $1,194m was marginally ahead of the $1,181m consensus had expected, while EPS of $4.07 fell short of consensus expectations of $4.16. Domestic same-store sales rose 0.1%, in line with flat consensus forecasts, but international same-store sales fell 0.1% consensus at +0.7%. Net store additions were mixed: domestic openings of 26 came in consensus at 35, while international additions of 183 beat consensus forecasts 158.

The top-line beat was entirely down to Supply Chain – the products Domino's sells to its franchisees – which was ahead by $17m against a total revenue beat of $14m. The Supply Chain outperformance reflects a combination of pricing and higher order growth, evidence that the value deals are working but at a cost, which is the source of the earnings miss.

The key challenge for Domino's is that it has delivered broadly flat comparable sales in the US in the first half – domestic same-store sales of 0.4% in 1Q26 (versus - 0.5% in 1Q25) and 0.1% in 2Q26 (versus 3.4% in 2Q25) – but now faces much tougher comparatives of 5.2% and 3.7% in the third and fourth quarters as it laps last year's menu innovation (stuffed crust) and the DoorDash launch.

In its prepared remarks, management emphasised order growth, which it sees as the lifeblood of the business: consumers coming into stores or through the aggregator channel can be signed up to the loyalty programme, giving franchisees the volume to leverage into profit. However, the long-term guidance still calls for 3% same-store sales growth, and we find it tough to see a path to that in the near term. There were no major announcements in the release on menu innovation or an updated outlook, and no revision to the long-term growth plans.

The shares look cheap on a P/E basis, but with no change to the long-term algorithm we see little fundamental support for a re-rating and retain our Sell rating.

Lewis summarizes the earnings call with management:

The quarter: management was at pains to flag that order count was in line with expectations; the miss was on ticket growth, as the Premium Series with Slice Sauce did not resonate as management had expected. Management returned repeatedly to the strength of order growth in a flat QSR industry as evidence of the health of Domino's core business.

Updated outlook: low-single-digit same-store sales guidance for both Domestic and International was reiterated, though International now includes any World Cup benefit (the tournament began after 2Q ended). FY26 domestic unit growth has been capped at 175, versus a prior 175-plus, as macro pressures and the weak 2Q ticket weighed on franchisee profitability. This may have ramifications for FY27 unit growth in our view. On comps, management is confident in the order-growth trajectory and expects to do a better job on ticket in the second half than in 2Q, implying sequential improvement on the 0.5% delivered in 1H26.

Strategic update: the outgoing CEO remained as positive as ever on the pizza category. He flagged a new product coming in 3Q – as yet undisclosed – that he expects to be incremental to the category, playing into an occasion where pizza does not typically do well (it sounds like an afternoon opportunity). He expects industry competition to stay elevated and has leant further into value, adding premium stuffed crust to the Best Deal Ever this quarter

Domino's maintained its forecast for low-single-digit US same-store sales growth in 2026 but trimmed planned domestic store openings to 175. As one of the first QSR chains to report quarterly results, Domino's provides an early proxy for consumer sentiment and a read-through on how restaurant operators are holding up amid elevated gasoline and diesel prices.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 08:05

Kazakhstan Stops Piping Oil To Black Sea After Spate Of Ukraine Drone Tanker Strikes

Update(0803ET): This development certainly isn't going to help global oil prices stay down... Following a drone attack out of Ukraine days ago on the Caspian ​Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal along the Black Sea Coast, Kazakhstan has newly confirmed a halt crude transfers there.

"Kazakhstan is set to stop piping crude to a port on Russia’s Black Sea coast after a spate of attacks on tankers that's jeopardizing the landlocked Asian country’s ability to produce oil," Bloomberg reports Tuesday morning.

"The CPC Terminal at the Russian port of Novorossiysk will stop accepting piped supplies because tanker companies are too nervous to send their ships to the facility, two people with knowledge of the matter said," the report continues, describing a developing situation that parallels the ongoing situation of nervous tanker crews who have remained stopped in the Strait of Hormuz, also for fear of being attacked. "The halt is due to begin later on Tuesday," Bloomberg adds.

Additionally, CPC clarified in a statement that "Oil loading ⁠operations were suspended. No oil spill occurred and no ignition of oil in the cargo tanks ​was allowed." The pipeline terminates near the Russian port of Novorossiysk, and while mainly carrying Kazakh supply, it also transports some Russian crude. The Kremlin charged that these recent attacks are part of Ukraine's "ambition ​to further destabilize the situation on global oil markets".

That would be about 1.6 mm bopd out of 2.1 mm bopd total Kazakh exports. #OOTT https://t.co/k4Bfr0a639

— Z4 Energy Research (@ZmansEnrgyBrain) July 21, 2026

At least one of the tankers recently hit (described below) erupted in an onboard fire after it was struck on the starboard side. Reuters has detailed in the aftermath of a rescue effort that "The international crew of 22 ​was evacuated using CPC tugboats, with ​the exception of the ⁠captain and chief officer. The tanker remained afloat." Flows had initially resumed after a wave of Sunday attacks on the CPC terminal, but were halted again after strike on tanker Nelsa.

Analysts have been pointing out that as a result of Ukraine's broader drone war on Russian energy sites, Russia's oil refining output has fallen to its lowest level in more than two decades.

*  *  *

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of orchestrating a plan to further destabilize global oil markets by carrying out drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in Monday remarks, "We are in solidarity with the Kazakh Foreign Ministry in its decisive condemnation of this crime against a civilian facility."

via Caspian News

"We regard this attack as yet another confirmation of Bankova's desire to further destabilize the situation on global oil markets," the top diplomat emphasized, referencing the street houses the Office of the President of Ukraine.

"For it, ensuring global energy stability, as well as a respectful attitude toward foreign partners, in particular from Kazakhstan, with whom the Kiev regime allegedly wants to develop mutually beneficial and friendly relations, is an empty phrase," she added.

The Caspian ​Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, which is off Russia's Black Sea cost, confirmed Sunday that it was forced to suspend oil loadings, after a pair of oil tankers came under attack here.

Specifically the Asia and Nissos IOS tankers were attacked, with the former having caught on fire as a result, which was subsequently extinguished by emergency crews.

"There were no injuries or ​fatalities amongst CPC staff or contractors. There was no ⁠oil spill," CPC later clarified while confirming that the tankers remained afloat.

"At present, crude oil loading operations at the terminal have been suspended pending a full assessment of the consequences of the incident," CPC also said, but stopped short of identifying what entity was behind the attack.

Kazakhstan's foreign ministry was outraged. "Upon completion of this assessment, Kazakhstan reserves all rights ​available under international law to protect its legitimate ​interests, including ⁠seeking full compensation for the damage caused," it said.

This isn't the first time that sections of the key energy route have been targeted by Ukrainian drones. For example a key section of Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk was temporarily been taken offline in a November 2025 attack.

It is surprising that the attacks on Caspian Pipeline Consortium are continuing, and another red line has been crossed, because for the first time in history of naval combat, tankers were attacked at loading point

— Olzhas Baidildinov, ex-advisor to Energy Minister of Kazakhstan pic.twitter.com/K7OP3oSx7K

— RTBreaking (@RT_Breaking) July 20, 2026

The consortium's over 930-mile pipeline connects oil fields in western Kazakhstan and Russian offshore fields in the Caspian Sea to a marine terminal in Novorossiysk, which means the location serves as the main export route for Kazakh oil, and is one of the world’s largest oil conduits by volume.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 08:03

Futures Jump As Chipmakers Surge After Japan , Korea Bounce

US stock futures are higher led by Tech after a strong bounce in chip stocks in Japan (memory stock Kioxia traded limit up after trading limit down on Friday and Monday was a holiday) and Korea, as evidence mounts that Momentum / Semis pullback have bottomed, with supportive price action elsewhere in Asia and Europe, though the JPM EU Trading Desk is not yet seeing follow-through buying in Semis.  As of 7:20am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher, lagging the 1.4% bounce in Nasdaq futures helped by a report that TSMC is planning price hikes, although it is unclear if the early ramp will persist amid the re-escalating war with Iran which overnight saw Houthis impose a blocakde on Saudi Arabia. In premarket trading, most Mag 7 names are higher with semis leading (SOXX +4%). Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with both Staples and HC net lower and AI boosting Industrials and Utils. WTI crude is trading near its highs, boosting Energy as all 3 commodity complexes move higher with silver the standout which has traded in tandem with the AI theme. The yield curve is twisting steeper with yields ranging from -1bp to +1bp with USD flat. Today’s macro focus is on the weekly ADP number and regional Fed activity.  US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (8:30 am). Fed speaker slate is blank during July 18-30 external communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.

In premarket trading, chipmakers and other AI-related firms rebound after the sector suffered some recent weakness. Movers include Intel (INTC +5.5%), Sandisk (SNDK +8.1%), Micron (MU +6.8%), CoreWeave (CRWV +3.8%), GE Vernova (GEV +2.5%) as the entire trillion-dollar sector continues to trade like a rabid pennystock.

• Tesla and Nvidia are leading Magnificent 7 stocks higher during the AI rebound (Tesla +1.2%, Nvidia +1.1%, Alphabet +1%, Meta +0.4%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.7%).

In corporate news, BlackRock’s coming debt sale of more than $12 billion for a Meta Platforms data center is the result of years spent transforming a public investments giant into a heavy hitter in private markets too.

• The Paramount-Warner deal, paused Monday by a federal judge, faces a legal hurdle that risks putting the deal on hold for months at a cost that could quickly climb to billions of dollars.
• Nike’s soccer boss said the World Cup ending “was not what we dreamed,” as Spain and Argentina — both Adidas teams — faced off in the final after beating Nike-clad teams in the semifinals.

Chipmakers are leading the gains in premarket trading, along with associated memory storage and semiconductor equipment names, helped by a report that TSMC is planning price hikes. Tech was also buoyed by upbeat Taiwan and South Korean export data, supportive Wall Street commentary (virtually every bank is begging for a momentum bounce knowing well that if one doesn't come it will get very ugly) and an absence of new geopolitical flashpoints. Even so, nagging worries about margin debt and inflation loom for the AI trade.  To wit, according to the trading desk at UBS, the sharp selloff in momentum stocks may be nearing its end, creating an opportunity for investors to start rebuilding positions in AI and semiconductor shares.

“While volatility is likely to remain high given the elevated concentration still present in parts of the market, the correction has been both deep and lengthy enough to alleviate some valuation concerns,” said Santiago Mateo Yanguas, head of equity at CaixaBank AM.

South Korea’s exports data adds further support for chips, with semiconductor exports climbing by a perfectly sustainable about 181% YoY for the first 20 days of July. Taiwan’s June export orders from the US rose nearly 84% year-on-year, the fastest pace on record. Whether the AI rally can extend will depend heavily on the reporting season and, as Bloomberg highlights, the biggest concern is leverage with US margin debt rising 49% year-on-year in June to a record high. AI capex “has stretched hyperscalers to the edge of acceptable investor limits,” notes JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke. 

Others were more bearish: equity investors should look to reduce some exposure after this earnings season, according to HSBC’s Max Kettner, who warns that stretched sentiment, a fading fiscal impulse, and US midterm election uncertainty could trigger a pullback. 

TSMC is set to raise prices for advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027 to reflect rising costs, Nikkei Asia reports. It follows a report last week of ASML raising prices for its equipment, for which TSMC is ASML’s largest customer. While price increases underpin the demand story, it will stoke concerns of inflationary pressures and traders will be on watch for corporate margin hits from memory costs during this earnings season.

Focus will soon shift to the start of the reporting season for Big Tech firms, where AI hyperscalers will update investors on their capital spending plans. Alphabet Inc. reports on Wednesday, while Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are due next week. “The next test is no longer whether AI demand exists, but whether pricing, margins and cash flow can justify the capex bill,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “If they can, the rebound should broaden. Otherwise, volatility remains the regime.”

A question that investors are asking themselves is whether now is the time to sell chips and rotate toward hyperscalers, which have underperformed semiconductors this year, according to Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management in Paris. “Our view is that one needs to be invested in both,” Drabowicz said. “Alphabet’s earnings this week will be a real bellwether for the industry and its capacity to monetize AI. We believe the market underestimates how fast these companies will be able to monetize.”

Global trade faces a fresh headache as the Panama Canal moves to curtail some vessel-booking slots because of water-supply challenges. Overnight, the Trump admin vowed to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods over what it said was unfair treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy. 

In politics, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to testify before lawmakers to defend the Trump administration’s request for billions of dollars in additional money for the Iran war. Trump met with a pair of key Republican senators on Monday evening to discuss a path forward on legislation that would override state laws on AI.  A federal appeals court denied Joe Biden’s request for a temporary block to stop the Justice Department from turning over tapes and transcripts to the Heritage Foundation. Seperately, the DOJ has launched a new investigation into Harvard University, alleging that some of its financial aid programs violate civil rights law by excluding American citizens. 

European stocks are up too, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2%, also being led by the technology sector. After two days in the red, as gains in the technology sector and a slew of robust earnings counter news about the continuing US-Iran clashes.  Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Mitie Group shares surge as much as 42% after agreeing to a takeover by OCS Group at a big premium to Monday’s close. The facility management company’s shares remain below the offer price
• Babcock rises as much as 8.3%, leading gains amoung European defense stocks on Tuesday after the UK’s new prime minister Andy Burnham told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that John Healey’s appointment as Chancellor was a “signal of his intent” on defense
• Var Energi shares gain as much as 5.9% and BlueNord rises as much as 6.7% after the former made a $1.3 billion offer to acquire the latter; Var Energi also reported 2Q results and reaffirmed its production forecast
• Bossard shares jump as much as 11%, hitting their highest level since October 2024, after first-half results from the maker of fastening devices beat expectations, which analysts said provides better visibility on the full-year outlook
• Genuit Group gains as much as 3.2% after analysts at Stifel initiated coverage on the maker of plastic piping systems with a buy rating and said they see an inflection point coming, driven by regulatory and structural drivers
• Basic resources stocks gained the most in the Stoxx 600 index as copper headed for its highest close since mid-June on signs that supply conditions in China are continuing to tighten. Gold touched its highest level in a week on dip-buying
• Boliden drops as much as 7.6%, to the lowest since May 5, after the mining company delivered revenue and operating profit below expectations in the second quarter, along with negative free cash flow
• Wartsila shares drop as much as 4.6% as JPMorgan flags the company lowering its demand outlook for the Energy division. That’s overshadowing the company’s strong beat on orders in the second quarter
• Schindler shares fall as much as 6.1%, the most in five months, after second-quarter revenues missed estimates, offsetting a better-than-expected margin performance
• Julius Baer shares declined as much as 5.3% as beats on net income and assets under management were overshadowed by the lack of update on a regulatory review and any subsequent share buybacks
• Jungheinrich shares drop as much as 5.5% after Germany’s financial regulator BaFin opened an accounting review on whether the company breached financial-reporting rules in connection with the planned sale of the company’s Russian business

Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions as investors rush back into chip stocks after a recent rout.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 2.3%, the most since July 15, led by TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix. South Korea and Taiwan led the gains in the region, with most other markets also climbing higher as investor sentiment improves. Taiex’s 3.6% rise was the most in three weeks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.7% after slipping into correction territory on Friday. While investors continue to debate whether AI spending is justified, the recent tech selloff has drawn some back to hunt for bargains. Several megacap earnings due later this week, including Tesla and Alphabet Inc., will shed further light on whether the AI-driven rally can regain momentum. “The market has already undergone a fairly substantial correction,” said Ikuo Mitsui, a fund manager at Aizawa Securities. “At the same time, corporate earnings have held up reasonably well and have proved more resilient than expected.”

In FX, the dollar is fluctuating, albeit in a narrow range. The yen is lagging, while the Norwegian krone and Aussie dollar are stronger.

In rates, treasury yields are little changed in early US trading with the yield curve steeper, tracking similar price action across most developed sovereign bond markets, with oil prices and stock index futures higher inside Monday’s ranges. Tiny overnight yield ranges included less than 2bp for 10-year. US session has no major calendar events. Yields across tenors remain within about a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, the 10-year just under 4.60%. Treasury futures volumes through 7am New York time were 60% to 90% of 20-day average level.  IG credit new-issue calendar includes is blank so far, but at least one potential borrower stood down Monday as three issuers raised a combined $4.5 billion, and may return. Treasury coupon auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year reopening Wednesday and $21 billion 10-year TIPS new issue Thursday. Germany is underperforming at the long end in Europe. UK government bonds ticked higher as investors awaited fresh policy details from new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Weak economic data dimmed bets on higher interest rates. 

In commodities, oil prices have been mostly lower for the session so far and Brent is sitting a little short of $89/barrel, while gold has come off its high but is still in the green and above $4,000/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (8:30 am). Fed speaker slate is blank during July 18-30 external communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Trump is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable endgames: Option 1: Pursue a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option 2: Launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran's capitulation. Axios
• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped since U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade took effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies. CNBC
• China is mounting one of its broadest efforts in years to steady the stock market, with regulators, state-backed investors, insurers and asset managers all moving to shore up confidence after a selloff in tech shares. BBG
• China’s cabinet pledged to ensure the country will meet its full-year economic goal and to forge ahead with implementing policies, after growth slipped below the official target range in the second quarter. BBG
• Chinese regulators are considering tightening export controls on artificial intelligence and semiconductor technologies, as the US-China rivalry intensifies in cutting-edge AI. FT
• The US vowed to impose a new 50% tariff on some Canadian goods, citing unfair treatment of American products. The levies would apply to items including milk and beer but exempt energy, potash and critical minerals. BBG
• London Stock Exchange plans to launch a 24/5 trading venue to support digital, algorithmic and agentic trading. It’ll operate separately from LSE’s Main Market, with ETPs set to debut next year. BBG
• OpenAI and Anthropic executives are sounding the alarm about the rise of cheap AI, particularly powerful new models produced in China, suggesting they will lead to a “dystopian” AI future and present unacceptable security risks without regulation. WSJ
• The cost of protecting Oracle Corp.’s debt against default reached a fresh multi-year high on Monday while its existing bonds sold off, as doubts grew over whether the company’s massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off. BBG
• US President Trump signed an order to identify and fix potential national security vulnerabilities by requiring defence contractors to screen their supply chains, aiming to stop weapons makers from working with certain foreign suppliers including China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from the US, where most major indices declined as oil prices and yields climbed amid the ongoing geopolitical backdrop, although the Nasdaq showed some resilience amid a bounce in tech and telecommunications. ASX 200 lacked firm direction with price action contained within relatively tight parameters in the absence of notable data or key macro drivers. Nikkei 225 rallied on return from the long weekend, with some bargain-hunting after last Friday's slump. KOSPI shrugged off earlier indecision and rallied amid a tech rebound, with notable strength seen in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound as they took a breather after rallying yesterday amid stimulus hopes and China’s “national team” buying close to USD 9bln in equities.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Cabinet approved an economic framework policy document including fiscal plan, which cites BoJ autonomy and lacked sales tax decisions.
• Japan is reportedly to relax rules surrounding bank lending for M&A and incentivise pension funds to invest more in alternative assets.
• New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.9%).
• New Zealand Inflation Rate YoY (Q2) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4% (Prev. 3.1%).
• South Korea July 1st-20th Exports rose 52.3% Y/Y, Imports rose 20.0% Y/Y and Trade Balance is at a provisional surplus of USD 12.2bln.
• Taiwan Export Orders (Jun) Y/Y 59.4% (exp. 47.3%).

european bourses are mixed and ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Tentative action which is encapsulated by the tumultuous geopolitical environment and a number of earnings from within the region. European sectors hold a slight negative bias. Tech outperforms followed by Basic Resources, whilst Optimised Personal Care and Media reside at the bottom of the pile. The Tech sector continues to bounce back from recent losses, following a similar theme seen in the APAC session, where the KOSPI gained c. 3.5%.

Top European News

• UK government to remove VAT on electricity bills from October 1st, funded by cancellation of the Digital ID programme, as part of new tax cut measures.
• UK PM Burnham reportedly to slash business rates for the hospitality sector by 20% within days, Huffington Post reported. Additionally, a GBP 2 cap on bus fares is also set to be unveiled as soon as Wednesday.
• Worldpanel announced grocery inflation and sales (w/e 12th July): Grocery Inflation 2.6% (prev. 3%).

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck. Antipodeans lead after a hotter-than-expected NZ CPI; JPY underperforms after the Japanese cabinet excluded a sales tax decision from its fiscal plan.
• DXY is a touch lower today, with oil prices softer but lacking direction as we await further geopolitical updates. Overnight, Axios reported that senior US and Israeli officials are claiming Trump’s options were to either promote a new 10-day ceasefire or launch a full-scale war on Iran. Elsewhere, Fox reported Trump will decide in the coming days whether to expand military operations against Iran. ING opines USD risks remain to the upside, given the aforementioned factors. Given the above, focus remains on incoming Gulf newsflow with a light calendar ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. DXY remains below the 21DMA at 100.05, currently between 100.90 and 101.
• GBP in focus today after UK PM Burnham appointed former Defence Minister Healey as Chancellor (see 09:50 analysis for more detail). Elsewhere, UK jobs saw the unemployment rate remain steady at 4.9%, whilst the Employment Change topped expectations, while the wages components were flat/very slightly firmer. Overall, a report which will have little impact on the BoE, ahead of CPI on Wednesday and Flash PMIs on Friday. GBP takes a breather just above 1.3420 in Cable, and a little weaker just above 0.85 in the EUR cross.
• JPY is on a weaker footing despite the aforementioned subdued Dollar and softer oil prices. Overnight, Japan's Cabinet approved the economic framework policy document, including a fiscal plan, which cited BoJ autonomy but lacked a sales tax decision. Amid the uncertainty given the lack of a funding plan, USD/JPY resides towards the upper end of a 162.43-162.70 range.
• Antipodeans hold on to the spoils of the prior day's outperformance, with Aussie propped up by firmer metals whilst the Kiwi is leading after firmer-than-expected New Zealand CPI data. AUD/NZD is a modest touch lower, Aussie and Kiwi both +0.4% against the Buck.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks trade range-bound, in line with energy prices, despite the risk-on tone seen across the equity space. Equities seem to enjoy the reporting around a possible 10-day ceasefire, with recent reporting hinting that the US is demanding a longer ceasefire.
• Gilts (+1 tick) trade higher, despite the announcement of former Defence Secretary Healey as Chancellor. Thus far, gilts have taken this as fairly positive, possibly taking comfort in the fact that he used to work in the Treasury in past governments. In terms of Burnham's policy, Bloomberg reported that the UK government will remove VAT on electricity bills from October 1st, funded by cancellation of the Digital ID programme. There have been contradictory reports over whether this measure will be fully funded. The Times reported that this will be fully funded; however, the OBR said the GBP 1.8bln figure for the ID scheme was unfunded, while former UK minister Jones suggested that Burnham's cut is also unfunded. More recently, the Huffington Post reported that Burnham is to slash business rates for the hospitality sector by 20%, while a GBP 2 cap on bus fares is also set to be unveiled soon.
• On the data front, the ONS released its May employment report; employment change 147k (exp. 85k, prev. 100k), unemployment change 4.9% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.9%). Despite the strong labour report, gilts have failed to react, given the focus on politics.
• Bunds (-10 ticks) rotate in a 124.59-124.81 range. Focusing on the short-end, the yield currently trades outside of the 2.52-2.76% range, driven by the recent leg higher in energy prices. Brent has recently returned above the USD 90/bbl mark, resurfacing worries of an energy pass-through into inflation. ING says that rates can take a hawkish view, with the 2yr euro swap rate touching 3%, because the EZ growth picture continues to recover. Additionally, implied bond volatility is at lower levels, compared to the early stages of the Middle East conflict.
• USTs (+1 tick) lack direction given the quiet docket this week, heading into the Fed policy announcement next week.
• Germany sells EUR 4.553bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.48x, average yield 2.89%, retention 24.1%.
• The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.42x (prev. 3.35x), average yield 4.463% (prev. 4.238%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).

Commodities

• Geopolitics remain fluid with constructive and escalatory updates on the US-Iran front. On the former, a 10-day ceasefire proposal was pitched, while Iran confirmed ongoing mediation talks, which keeps alive the possibility of a return to the June interim MoU. On the other hand, last night was the 10th consecutive day of US airstrikes, whilst Iran continues targeting the region and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. US President Trump is expected to decide in the coming days whether to expand military operations against Iran and return to full-scale combat, a senior US official told Fox News. Meanwhile, senior US and Israeli officials are claiming Trump only has two realistic options: either promoting a new 10-day ceasefire with the aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or launching a full-scale war on Iran, Axios reported. Further, a US official said if US President Trump decides to expand the war, the strikes will include Tehran and nuclear sites, according to Al Arabiya.
• Crude oil futures are trading subdued as market participants weigh emerging diplomatic de-escalation signals against ongoing military exchanges in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell to the bottom end of a USD 88.08-89.45/bbl range while WTI similarly waned to the lower end of a USD 81.64-83.05/bbl range. Also on the supply side, NHC reported that Tropical Storm Bertha has strengthened, situated right in the Gulf of Mexico. Dutch TTF bucks the trend and has edged higher, back above the EUR 59.23/MWh mark, in the European morning, with analysts suggesting gas will be impacted more by the Middle East situation.
• Precious metals are on a firmer footing as the Dollar and inflation expectations ease with oil prices. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,999/oz to USD 4,084/oz range. Spot silver surges 4.5% at the time of writing as it rises above USD 59/oz vs Friday’s 54.77/oz base.
• Base metals also cheer the pullback in the Dollar alongside expectations of Chinese stimulus following recent weak economic data. 3M LME copper is firmer by 1.5% at the time of writing and towards the upper end of a USD 13,603.73- 13,840.00/t range.
• UAE's ADNOC has approved a USD 6.2bln project to boost natgas production, Bloomberg reported.
• Goldman Sachs said Brent may rise above USD 120/bbl in FY26 Q4 if Hormuz remains disrupted.

Trade/Tariffs

• The US is imposing an additional 50% tariff on certain products of Canada including some USMCA products, to counter Canadian bias against US commerce with respect to alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles. In response, Canadian PM Carney said Canada is ready to engage intensively to address issues with the US and said we're ready to talk with the US about modernising the USMCA. Additionally, the Ontario Premier said that Canada should impose retaliatory tariffs against the US.
• China is weighing tighter export controls on AI models and chips, according to FT.

Central banks

• ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jul): Euro area banks reported a moderate net tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises in Q2'26.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• It was Iran which proposed the 10-day ceasefire, i24's Stein reported, citing sources. The US said to be demanding a longer ceasefire and demanding even partial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. The goal of these 10 days, according to the two sources, is to find a solution for the Strait of Hormuz. The mediators conveyed the proposal to the US and even added additional components to it during the talks they held with Washington and Tehran so that it would be between the territory controlled by Oman and the territory controlled by Iran and through which ships could pass.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they will continue to attack Iran and are ensuring the flow of oil, gas and other products through the Strait of Hormuz with or without Iran's cooperation. Wright said they continue to undermine Iran's offensive military capabilities and that President Trump wants to end the conflict with a peace deal, but this will require cooperation from both sides.
• US CENTCOM announced another round of strikes against Iran in which US forces struck Iranian military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defence systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking vessels.
• US airstrikes targeted the centre of Isfahan city and several explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Chabahar, Konarak and Shiraz, while air defence systems were activated near Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant.
• US likely does not have enough munitions to sustain a prolonged all-out war with Iran — which is already adapting to bypass US defence systems in its attacks across the region, according to an expert cited by The New York Post
• Iran claimed a strike on a US military data centre in Bahrain and stated that US radar and defence systems in Bahrain were destroyed. Iran also targeted US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber base, US missile systems at Kuwait's Arifjan base, while explosions were reported in the Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait. Additionally, a central data infrastructure of Amazon (AMZN) in Bahrain was attacked by several cruise missiles.
• More recently, there have been reports of sirens in Qatar while explosions were heard in Jordan.
• IRGC said two tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while the UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 8NM northeast of Oman's Limah and later announced the crew had abandoned the ship.
• Yemeni Houthi commander said Saudi Arabia faces two options: either lift the blockade and stop its intervention or continue escalating, which will cost it a lot, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said "the State of Israel has no interest in joining the conflict between Iran and the US - the current situation is the best for us", Ynet reported.
• Israel conducted artillery strikes on southern Lebanon, while it stated that the programme of pilot zones in southern Lebanon began on Monday, which was carried out in cooperation with US military and Lebanese armed forces. Furthermore, it will respond forcefully to any violation of the agreement.
• The Lebanese army entered Zawtar al-Gharbiya as part of the first phase of the pilot zones, Al Hadath reported, while Israeli troops departed the area.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces have struck infrastructure used by Ukraine’s military in the port of Odesa, IFX reported.
• Russia's Kremlin said that Russia will continue targeting vessels involved in supplying Ukraine’s military.

Geopolitics: Other 

• US State Department said the US calls on China to immediately cease its destabilising conduct and condemns China's dangerous and aggressive actions against Philippine Navy personnel at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on July 20th.
• North Korea's Foreign Minister met with Russian President Putin in Moscow on 19th July, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:15am: ADP weekly employment change
• 8:30am July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I discussed the huge developments at the end of last week with Chinese open-source AI sparking another potential “DeepSeek moment”. Overnight Adrian Cox has published a timely report explaining what all the fuss is about. “Open-source AI 101: the battle for the future of AI” is a great insight for generalists into what open models are, how they differ from proprietary models like Claude and OpenAI’s GPTs, and why they are key to the AI boom. It’s on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website here.

I think that if the Chinese model of AI development continues to gain traction, it could have significant implications for the highly capital-intensive, capex-led US approach. As such, the piece is well worth a read.

Onto markets, and they struggled to gain traction yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.19%) losing ground even as chip stocks stabilised after last week’s rout, while Middle East concerns lingered. There has been a recovery overnight though. On the Middle East conflict there was some hope as a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said that “ideas from some mediators have been conveyed” to Iran, but escalating rhetoric from the Houthis in Yemen as well as from President Trump meant Brent crude still closed +1.27% higher at $89.22/bbl. Meanwhile, global bonds saw a broad selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields closing +4.4bps higher, in part due to a hint of looser fiscal policy from the new UK PM Burnham. 30yr US real yields also hit their highest since 2008. 

Starting with Iran, we did see some improvement in sentiment yesterday as Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official had told them that mediators had passed a proposal to Iran, which would offer a 10-day ceasefire to try and revive the interim deal last month. But the headlines weren’t all positive yesterday, and shortly afterwards, oil prices pared back some of their decline after the Houthis said they’d impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which risks adding to the oil supply disruption. The mood also wasn’t helped by Trump’s post that Iran “will pay… many times over” for the deaths of US soldiers, while the US has conducted a 10th consecutive night of strikes against Iran overnight. So with different counteracting forces, Brent crude settled +1.27% higher at $89.22/bbl, beneath its morning peak above $91/bbl but well off the lows just above $86/bbl. Overnight, Brent is -0.75% lower. 

Back to the bond sell-off and the UK led the way with gilts seeing a sharp underperformance after new PM Andy Burnham said that he would use “any flexibility” within the country’s fiscal rules. Potential options for such flexibility include using up the available headroom under the fiscal rules and using off-balance-sheet structures to fund targeted capital investments. The latter may lie outside the current fiscal rules but would still add to the debt burden. So the comments were seen as opening the way for more borrowing and meant that the 10yr yield ended the day up +8.1bps at 5.03%, whilst the 30yr yield (+8.9bps) closed at 5.74%. This sell-off all happened after he spoke. We’re also expecting some further announcements from the new administration this week, and Burnham said in his first speech as PM that he’d be setting out more measures from today to support with the cost of living.

In a surprise move, we then learnt that Burnham had picked John Healey, the former Defence Secretary, as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Healey had been voted as one of the more investor-friendly options for Chancellor in a recent Bloomberg survey, though there’s little visibility on his fiscal views. Indeed, his highest-profile recent move was accusing the Treasury of underfunding defence as he resigned from Starmer’s government last month. In other appointments, Burnham picked Ed Miliband as foreign secretary and appointed a close ally, Louise Haigh, as first secretary of state. The latter pick coupled with Healey’s as Chancellor raises the possibility that under Burnham, Number 10 will look to exert more direct control over economic policy. The pound did recover a bit of yesterday’s earlier losses following the news of Healey’s appointment, but it was still down -0.16% against the dollar. 

Whilst the UK saw the worst of the bond selloff, it was echoed around the world. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+2.5bps), OATs (+1.9bps) and BTPs (+2.6bps) all moved higher, and for 10yr OATs, that took them up to a post-2009 high of 3.94%.

And over in the US, the 10yr Treasury yield (+4.4bps) was up to 4.59%. The sell-off in Treasuries was driven by real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+3.3bps) rising to 2.33%, while the 30yr real yield (+3.4bps) rose to 2.92%, its highest level since 2008. At the same time, investors priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with 34bps of hikes now priced in by the December meeting, up +2.3bps on the day. This has now retraced more than half of the declines seen since last week's soft CPI. 

US equities struggled to recover amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising real yields. The S&P 500 (-0.19%) retreated for a third consecutive session with two thirds of its constituents down on the day. The Philly semiconductor index (+0.60%) did see a modest recovery after its -9.97% slump last week, so it’s no longer more than -20% beneath its record high, as it was on Friday. However, the broader tech mood was still cautious, with the NASDAQ (-0.05%) and Mag-7 (-0.07%) inching lower. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 was also down -0.30%, with the FTSE 100 (-0.71%) leading the losses amid the broader UK asset underperformance. 

However there has been a bounce this morning in Asia with S&P (+0.42%) and Nasdaq (+1.03%) futures both comfortably higher. The tech recovery continues elsewhere as the KOSPI (+4.63%) is leading gains in the region after falling nearly 5% yesterday. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+2.76%) is also firm after yesterday's holiday. In China, the CSI 300 (+1.76%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.62%) are posting solid gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.03%) is fairly flat alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.08%). 

Early-morning data showed that South Korea’s exports surged 52.3% year-over-year during the first 20 days of July, driven largely by semiconductor shipments, which nearly tripled amid sustained demand fueled by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. This was one of the WOW! charts in my recent pack, with exports at over 50-year highs on a YoY basis. The trend continues. 

In other overnight news, the US announced that it will impose a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods. The new tariffs were announced under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, which has never previously been used. This allows the President to impose duties of up to 50% in response to discriminatory treatment against U.S. commerce. According to US Trade Representative Greer, the new tariffs are due to take force in 30 days and will cover close to $20bn of goods, so a relatively small portion of the over $350bn of annual Canadian exports to the US. Note also that the US administration’s temporary Section 122 global tariff of 10% expires this Friday (July 24), so we may well see more US tariff announcements, especially ones justified by recent Section 301 investigations, in the coming days. 

Otherwise, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but Canadian government bonds outperformed after the country’s latest CPI print surprised on the downside. So headline CPI fell more than expected to +2.8% in June (vs. +2.9% expected), and the two core measures followed by the Bank of Canada were also beneath consensus, with median core at +1.9% (vs. +2.1% expected), and trim core at +1.8% (vs. +2.0% expected). So the 10yr yield in Canada only rose +0.8bps on the day, a smaller increase than the +4.4bps jump for 10yr Treasuries. 

Looking at the day ahead, it’s a quiet one, with data releases including UK unemployment for May and the German ZEW survey for July. Meanwhile from central banks, the ECB will release their Bank Lending Survey. Q2 earnings season will bubble in the background though.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 07:39

The Democrats' Financial Situation Appears To Be Worse Than Previously Known

The Democratic Party's money problems have been an open secret for months. Federal Election Commission filings from around six months ago showed the Democratic National Committee entering the final stretch of last year with barely $12 million in its campaign account and nearly $16 million in debt, most of it stemming from a loan the committee took out the previous month. Donations had slumped just as the party needed them most.

Since then, the political environment has arguably been extremely beneficial for Democrats, with President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, the war with Iran, and high gas prices. Any one of those should have been enough to give the party the momentum necessary to get them out of their financial slump. Now, instead of turning the financial picture around, the DNC appears to be doing something stranger: hiding it.

According to a report from Axios, DNC officials required senior leadership to sign non-disclosure agreements before a private meeting on the party's finances, a departure from the committee's usual practice. Two people familiar with the conversations said the DNC requested the NDAs ahead of the recent finance meeting. The DNC asked its officers, high-ranking members of chair Ken Martin's own team, to sign the agreements, the kind of people who typically never sign confidentiality paperwork before sitting down to talk numbers.

The senior officers' meeting took place on June 25, five days before the Supreme Court handed down a ruling that upended the rules governing how parties fund their candidates. The timing alone tells its own story about how the DNC is managing its message heading into a midterm cycle it can't afford to fumble.

Martin has spent months fending off a quiet but persistent crisis of confidence among Democratic donors, operatives, and even members of his own committee, all of them watching the Republican National Committee build a fundraising advantage heading into the Nov. 3 midterms that keeps getting harder to explain away. The numbers through the end of May make the gap plain. The DNC held just under $15 million on hand against $18 million in debt, while the RNC sat on $125 million with no debt at all.

The DNC declined to comment on why it required only its officers to sign confidentiality agreements before the finance meeting, and they're trying to pass it off as inconsequential. Chris Lowe, the committee's national finance co-chair, claimed that requiring officers and board-meeting attendees to sign NDAs is standard practice in the corporate world. Lowe added that senior DNC staff already operate under confidentiality agreements and argued it would be poor practice to discuss finance and political strategy at the highest levels without them in place.

A DNC official claimed that Martin's committee has raised more money this cycle than the DNC did in 2017 and 2018, the last time Democrats headed into a midterm without the White House; however, it's not clear whether that accounts for inflation.

Ultimately, the NDA strategy will not keep the party's finances hidden, since those numbers will become public through Federal Election Commission filings. The agreements clearly exist for other reasons, such as protecting the internal deliberations, party infighting, donor threats, doubts about Martin's leadership, and any strategic response to the Supreme Court's ruling in NRSC v. FEC. The financial numbers clearly aren't good, but what the party plans to do about them is likely what they're really trying to hide.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 06:55

Gold & Tech: How The Whales Trick The Retail Plankton

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Never in my 30+ years in the markets have I seen a monetary, precious metal and risk-asset setup more obvious yet more deliberately ignored than today.

Below, we look at the converging signposts screaming from the tech/AI sector and the equally obvious (yet deliberately downplayed) signals from a precious metals market entering a watershed turning point.

How the Whales Do Their “Magic”

As warned for years, and more recently here at the precious metals symposium in Florida, the insider whales (central and commercial banks, the BIS, the IMF and the shadow banking canyons of Wall Street) are clever little magicians.

They have a devious talent for manipulating (and destroying) the retail plankton by having the masses focus on their right hand while quietly gut-punching them with a banker’s hidden left hand.

Another Classic Tech Pump-n-Dump

Take, for example, the recent headlines from the tech sector in general and the AI rabbit hole in particular.

Despite a Fed-driven S&P which is historically over-valued by literally EVERY core valuation metric, all eyes of late had been salivating over the SpaceX IPO (trading at 100X revenues) and the Wall Street meme (and gambit) that AI will save the world.

This all-too familiar mania has been nothing short of hysterical—and for all the wrong reasons.

Behind this percolating, unprofitable and VC-funded madness lies (as always and as per usual) a cadre of over-levered banks sending/lending the markets at warp speed toward yet another debilitating credit (and then equity) crisis.

As warned in September of 2025, there’s much more to the AI “Great Dumbing” than just a wholesale slaughter of blue- and white-collar jobs.

In fact, a massive, contagious and AI-driven stock and bond bubble lies beneath the headlines which, with a little help from an equally toxic private credit and private equity threat, will soon send the global financial markets into yet another historical liquidity crisis.

As warned last year, the reckless over-investment by the Magnificent 7 “tech giants” (which comprise 1/3 of the US stock market cap) into the emerging AI mania “would soon move from over-bought to massively over-sold.”

AI: Hiding the Shameless Beneath the “Norm”

The nature of this over-concentrated mismanagement almost defies belief, as the AI bubble is driven by circular financing sins which deserve no redemption.

NVDA, for example, which makes the microchips that drive AI, invests billions in AI startups, who then buy AI chips back from NVDA, pushing its valuations moonward.

Microsoft, Google and Amazon are no less shameless.

Microsoft, for example, will place billions into OpenAI, who then sends that same money right back into Microsoft.

Google equally invests hundreds of billions into Anthropic, who then sends those same billions back into Google’s AI infrastructure. Amazon, playing the same game, tosses equal capital levels to Anthropic, who in turn invests that money straight into Amazon’s cloud servicing coffers.

These “magnificent” tech giants then have the gall to report AI-driven “revenue growth” on what is little more than an insider puff-job, the equivalent of me “investing” (giving) my son $1000 and then asking him to return the cash and calling that my “growth model.”

This Familiar Movie Doesn’t End Well

This, of course, is madness, and we (along with Apollo Research) are reminding YOU that there is in fact NO sign that the tech sector is making any real money at all from AI, other than from the companies selling to each other.

This incestuous pattern is eerily reminiscent of CISCO selling routers to dot.com startups in the late 90’s, which were funded by VC companies who were themselves funded by CISCO.

And we all remember how that -78% NASDAQ movie ended…

As of 2026, we now see a Mag-7 which has, with the help of those ever-wise TBTF banks in NYC, levered trillions into an AI gambit under the assumption that AI will make them more profitable in much the same way those same pre-08 banks thought ABS-packaged sub-prime mortgages would never fail.

And we all know how that -57% S&P movie ended too…

What’s even scarier, and not making the headlines today, is that those same banks have also seen that movie before. (Remember “Margin Call”?) After sending global markets to their knees in 2008, those same banks then issued themselves their highest bonus levels in history…

As for today, banks like Goldman Sachs are giving the retail plankton “research reports” on how undeniably significant technology like AI will save the world and the S&P.

Meanwhile, those same banks, and most notably the ever-clever JP Morgan, are quietly dumping their AI credit (junk bonds?) at a steady pace—you know, like profiteering rats leaving a ship before it sinks from their own lending practices.

Elon’s Bond Woes…

Folks, this is bad. But the hidden bad (as well as credit risk) doesn’t end in the oh-so magical AI sector. Elon’s SpaceX bonds are yet another tech-driven credit bug looking for a windshield.

Just after going public at a $1T valuation, SpaceX issued over $25B in bonds, and as of this writing, those bonds have already lost 10%.

We know that bonds are “boring” (and hence easily ignored). But as warned for years, the bond market is everything, and this latest credit signal from SpaceX is simply staggering in its implications.

Why?

Because those AI and SpaceX bonds (like those sub-prime ABS mortgages of the 2008 era) are likely part of your third-party-administered 401K and pension plans –just ticking away like a bad-debt time bomb as you read this.

From Crappy Bonds to Solid Gold

If the foregoing disconnect between media hype and hard math wasn’t bad enough, a far more lasting sea change in the global monetary system is unfolding right before our collectively closed eyes.

As the media and tourists/speculators (i.e., plankton) in the precious metals trade haggle over “peak gold” and decry short-term bear corrections in an otherwise obvious and misunderstood gold bull market, the big whales are calmly stacking metal in a deliberately manipulated fire sale as retail investors panic in the fog of daily price action.

Same Tricks, Different Asset

But again, this magic trick of blinding the plankton with hype/fear while the insider whales feast is nothing new.

The big banks from Wall Street to Hong Kong, as well as the central banks from Brazil to China, know that a UST and USD sinking under the weight of a 7% current accounts deficit and $3B/day in interest expenses on its $40T debt pile is no longer the world’s neutral collateral in actual practice.

This explains why there are more sellers than buyers of USTs.  

And this explains why sovereign bond yields are the highest in decades.

This explains why central banks now hold more physical gold than USTs.

This also explains why the COMEX has been seeing two years of physical gold (and silver) flying out its doors faster than $#!T through a goose to meet foreign delivery demands. This equally explains why central bank gold stacking has increased by 5X since Biden weaponized the USD in 2022.

Finally, this fully explains why Q1 of 2026 saw central bank gold stacking reach its highest pace in history, and why central banks net-purchased 41 tons of gold in May alone.

Love or Hate Em’—China Sees the Bigger Picture

And no one foresaw this incremental and now exponential decline in USD and UST hegemony better than the Chinese.

The PBOC just completed its 20th straight month of net gold-stacking, with a 15-ton purchase of gold in June.

Meanwhile, China imported more than 700 tons of the metal in the first 5 months of 2026 and over 14,000 tons since 2015.

Such farsighted preparation and strategic thinking (rather than flag-waving hopium) also explains why China’s largest bank, ICBC, along with four other major commercial banks, recently announced an end (effective July 24) of the paper trade (levered price fixing) of gold in favor of physical metal only—thereby undercutting (and giving a subtle middle-finger to) the paper-based farce of the NY COMEX exchange.

As the former head of the Shanghai exchange warned an overconfident West in 2014, soon China (with a partner in Hong Kong), rather than New York or London, would set the gold price, and this price will slowly become much fairer, and exponentially higher, when based on physical bars rather than paper claims.

In fact, much of that US gold is heading straight for China (see below), a nation that is essentially “de-paperizing” the gold market.

This obvious yet ignored direction of the golden “puck” also explains why Chinese citizens now invest more of their money into gold ETFs than stock ETFs.

In short, while Americans are being seduced by their “experts” into tech tops and scared out of gold-buys, the farsighted Chinese are encouraging their citizens to load up on real money rather than bad credit.

In short, each of the foregoing (and entirely media-ignored) signals confirm that China sees the longer-term direction of a gold-based monetary system(rather than gold-backed currency) far better than a debt-corned and media-misinformed West.

Rock Beats Paper

In this 2026 backdrop of trade, currency and now “hot” wars, China (and many other far-sighted nations and banks inside and outside of the BRICS+ coalition) are effectively loading their monetary guns with golden rather than paper bullets.

In other words, physical gold is no longer just another “asset,” “commodity,” or “metal” to compare against stocks, bonds or other “sectors.”

Gold is mathematically and objectively becoming the de facto global reserve asset and trusted collateral in a world now marked by an undeniable distrust in each other in general and the USD/UST in particular.

Building Their Arks Before the Rain

Stated even more simply, the central banks and central planners are preparing for a new monetary system which no one at FOX News, the WSJ or CNBC wants the US “plankton class” to see or understand.

As usual, the whales are quietly stacking precious metals in a self-made fire-sale while the retail plankton decry current price volatility as if gold were just another tech stock.

For now, and as warned even at gold’s highs in January, volatility can continue. Prices never move in a straight line, and bearish corrections are typical of secularly bullish turning points to shake out the minnows to enrich the bigger fish.

But for those who see the bigger picture (and direction) for gold, the question is not whether one times a bottom or waits for the perfect entry (a total mug’s game).

The real question is whether or not you see this generational turning point in the global monetary system and are building your golden ark before or after the rain?

Based on the signals above, the rain has already started, and the big boys are now busily building their arks. They are not looking at gold’s paper price today or tomorrow, but at gold’s physical and exponentially higher price, direction and role in the many years ahead.

Such knowledge confirms that if you grasp the history and math of gold, and posses the patience of an investor rather than a trader, this broke(n) world is literally handing you the greatest asset (and buy signal) in a generation—and one which will ensure and protect generations of wealth in the years to come.

This is not a “gold bug” fable but historical fact.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 06:30

Blackstone Just Made A Physical AI Bet On Actuator-Maker Powering Humanoid Robots

Blackstone, the world's largest alternative asset manager, is making a big investment in Futronic, a 33-year-old automotive supplier whose motion-control technology has been adapted for industrial and humanoid robots, according to Reuters.

The deal values the South Korean firm at about 1 trillion won ($676.04 million), according to a person with knowledge of the matter. -RTRS 

The deal comes just ahead of the expected rise of physical AI, with forecasts from top desks indicating that global robot deliveries could begin ramping up later this year before accelerating more materially in 2027.

A recent Deutsche Bank report shows that global shipments are poised to surge.

Latest coverage:

• Mitsubishi Motors Joins Physical AI Race With Humanoid Robot Production Deal
• "Just The Beginning": Japan Buys Billions In Nvidia Rubin Chips To Power Humanoid Robots

We previously provided readers with the report "Current State Of Physical AI: Everything You Need To Know," offering a way to gain exposure to the industrial automation and humanoid robotics space. Read the full note here.

To sum up, the Blackstone deal suggests that the asset manager is positioning for the rise of physical AI, aiming to capture alpha through the company that produces actuators, motors, sensors, controllers, and other mechatronic systems.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 05:45

Did Scientists Just Solve The Biggest Mystery Holding Back Solid-State Batteries

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

• Scientists have identified the root causes of solid-state battery failures, discovering that internal pressure cracks the electrolyte while electrical imbalances trigger lithium growth that causes short circuits.

• The findings could accelerate commercialization by turning a long-standing scientific mystery into a solvable engineering challenge.

• Automakers including Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW are investing billions in solid-state batteries, with commercial EV deployments targeted for the second half of this decade

Scientists now know why solid-state batteries have repeatedly failed. Two separate studies have identified the physical processes responsible for the short circuits that have delayed commercialization for years, turning one of the industry’s biggest unknowns into a defined engineering problem.

For years, engineers knew how solid-state batteries were failing, but not why. The batteries repeatedly developed internal short circuits as microscopic lithium structures formed inside the cell and eventually pierced the barrier separating the battery’s positive and negative sides. Researchers could see what was happening after the fact, but they couldn’t explain what caused those structures to form or how they managed to penetrate a material specifically designed to block them.

Two independent research teams have now answered different parts of that question. In a paper published in Nature, scientists at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Sustainable Materials found that lithium deposits generate enormous internal pressure during charging, eventually cracking the solid electrolyte from within. 

Separately, researchers from MIT, the Technical University of Munich, and collaborating institutions reported in Nature Nanotechnology that tiny electrical imbalances inside the electrolyte create the conditions that allow the unwanted lithium structures to begin growing. 

The findings could remove a major scientific uncertainty just as automakers and battery manufacturers are investing billions of dollars to bring solid-state batteries into commercial production.

Manufacturers Aren’t Waiting Around

Solid-state batteries are widely regarded as the next major advance in battery technology because they promise to deliver longer driving ranges, faster charging, improved safety, and higher energy density than today’s lithium-ion batteries. 

Replacing the liquid electrolyte with a solid material also reduces the risk of overheating and allows manufacturers to pack more energy into the same physical space, making the technology attractive not only for EVs, but also for aviation, defense, and grid-scale energy storage.

The repeated failures never convinced the auto industry that solid-state batteries were unworkable. Instead, manufacturers chose to view them as engineering problems that could be solved eventually. 

The prize was simply too large to ignore because, compared with today’s lithium-ion batteries, solid-state promises higher energy density, faster charging, improved safety, and longer driving ranges. Manufacturers appear convinced that solid-state is what will completely reshape the EV industry. 

Manufacturers have turned that faith into billions of dollars in investment. 

Honda has already built a demonstration production line to develop the manufacturing techniques needed for mass production. Toyota continues targeting commercial deployment later this decade, while Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Stellantis, Hyundai, Samsung SDI, CATL, QuantumScape, Solid Power, and Factorial Energy have all expanded pilot production, strategic partnerships, or vehicle testing programs despite the technology’s unresolved scientific challenges.

Honda has spent approximately $280 million on a 27,400-square-meter solid-state battery production line in Sakura City, Japan. The facility replicates the full manufacturing process, from mixing and coating electrode materials through cell formation and module assembly. Battery production was scheduled to begin in January 2025, with Honda testing production costs, cell specifications, and mass-manufacturing methods ahead of vehicle deployment in the second half of the decade.

Honda is using roll-pressing to compress the solid electrolyte during assembly, reducing microscopic air gaps that impede ion transport while simplifying large-scale manufacturing. The company is also developing thinner cooling systems made possible by the greater thermal stability of solid-state batteries, reducing both battery weight and manufacturing complexity.

Mercedes-Benz has already put a solid-state battery on public roads. Earlier this year, the company unveiled a modified EQS equipped with lithium-metal cells supplied by Factorial Energy. During testing, the vehicle traveled 1,205 kilometers between Stuttgart and Malmö on a single charge and finished the journey with 137 kilometers of estimated range remaining.

BMW is testing large-format Solid Power cells in an i7 on public roads around Munich. The program is examining cell expansion, operating pressure, and temperature control inside a complete vehicle pack. BMW has also licensed Solid Power’s production technology for a prototype cell line at its Cell Manufacturing Competence Center in Parsdorf. 

Idemitsu is constructing a large pilot facility to manufacture sulfide solid electrolytes, one of the most important elements of Toyota’s next-generation batteries. The plant will produce lithium sulfide using sulfur recovered from petroleum refining before converting it into solid electrolyte material for automotive batteries. Toyota plans to begin commercial production of vehicles using the technology during 2027-2028.

What’s Next?

The solid-state mystery has been replaced with a design problem. 

Researchers now know that preventing electrolyte fractures and suppressing localized current concentrations will determine whether solid-state batteries can survive repeated charging cycles outside the laboratory.

But commercialization isn’t a given. Once the now-known problems are engineered out, it will be up to manufacturers to prove that solid-state batteries can be produced consistently at automotive scale, withstand thousands of charging cycles, and reach cost levels that compete with today’s lithium-ion batteries. That’s why companies continue to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into pilot production lines years before mass-market vehicles arrive.

Toyota still expects to introduce its first solid-state batteries during 2027-2028. Honda is targeting the second half of the decade. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and several battery manufacturers have already moved from laboratory cells to vehicles operating on public roads. This is about to become an industrial race. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 05:00

"Demand Signal Is Real": US Bipartisan Senate Delegation Touts Defense Boom At Farnborough Airshow

The Farnborough International Airshow kicked off on Monday and is one of the world's largest aerospace, aviation and defense trade shows. It is held every two years at Farnborough Airport in Hampshire.

A Reuters report says that a bipartisan group of nine US senators urged allied European defense giants to expand production, as there is soaring demand for missiles, bombs, drones, and interceptors, and as Congress moves to boost defense spending.

"Our message is encouragement to them to increase their capabilities to send the message that the demand signal is for real," said Republican Senator Jerry Moran at the airshow.

Moran said, "We are doing the things in Congress that suggest that the demand is only going to grow."

"We need more demand to meet the demand for protecting our country." He said the event allows lawmakers to talk, especially with Europeans, "to reiterate and recommit ourselves that the United States wants to participate in a global economy and global national security."

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen said that the group of senators represents a large swath of the US, where the aerospace industry is a large part of the local GDP.

Shaheen noted that the US had its biggest presence ever at Farnborough. She added that China has had an increasing presence at a separate air show in Paris.

Drone wars! At Farnborough air show this year, US companies are out in force showing off their autonomous fighter planes.

In order: Anduril has Fury, Boeing has the (Aussie) Ghost Bat, General Dynamics has Gambit.

But where is the British contender? TBC… pic.twitter.com/Z67yRgJSlk

— Matt Oliver (@mattotele) July 20, 2026

"The fact that we have such a large presence is important not just to America's industry but also to the partnerships that we need to have around the world to not only improve our ‌economic security but our national security," Shaheen said.

Other exhibits:

Good morning from Farnborough International Airshow 2026. 🇬🇧 Are you ready?
This is what you can expect this week:
🔴 The versatile airlifter: The Royal Air Force’s A400M will be on static display.
⚪️ The uncrewed drone interceptor: The Bird of Prey is Airbus’ answer to one-way… pic.twitter.com/rFuoy3xTbM

— Airbus Defence (@AirbusDefence) July 20, 2026

Bayraktar TB3’ün Avrupa Adı Belli Oldu: “Astore LEVANTE”

Leonardo ve BAYKAR’ın ortak şirketi LBA Systems, Bayraktar TB3 SİHA’yı “Astore LEVANTE” adıyla İngiltere’de Farnborough Airshow’da sergiliyor.

— SİHA’da, Leonardo faydalı yükleri ile ROKETSAN ve BAYKAR mühimmatı…

— Malik Ejder (@malikejder) July 20, 2026

Well this certainly looks like something out of Terminator. At the Farnborough International Airshow, Anduril Industries and Archer Aviation officially unveiled Thunder, a new Group 5 autonomous tiltrotor attack drone designed to serve as a "loyal wingman" for crewed military pic.twitter.com/49lyTIrRoa

— Boneyard Safari (@Boneyardsafari) July 20, 2026

As we've explained previously, President Trump's war economy has accelerated amid a massive push to replenish missile and bomb stockpiles depleted by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf, as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. There is also a big push to procure ample supplies of low-cost drones and interceptors.

Ways to profit:

• "Only The Beginning": How To Profit From The Asymmetric Warfare Boom

Eric Fanning, CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, said US aerospace and defense exports have surged by as much as 25% over the past year. The industry supports more than two million US jobs.

"We are by far the global leaders," Fanning said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 04:15

Proposed US Deal For Saudi Nuclear Enrichment Is Without Safeguards

Via Middle East Eye

The Trump administration has greenlit Saudi Arabia's nuclear enrichment project, but with no safeguards in place to prevent the development of a bomb, CNN reported on Friday. 

The draft deal, viewed by the news outlet, showed Washington's support for Riyadh’s civilian nuclear program is still awaiting President Donald Trump’s signature, despite US-Saudi negotiations concluding in October.

via AFP

Unnamed officials cited in the story indicated that the documents, which include the mandatory "123 agreement" and safeguards protocols, have not yet been sent to Congress, potentially for fear of bipartisan pushback.

It is unclear how long the president will wait, given Congress is likely to switch hands to a Democratic majority after the November elections, stymying his policy agenda. 

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his advisors have long pushed for a deal that would allow them to enrich uranium, which they say the kingdom holds vast reserves of.

“We will enrich it and we will sell it and we will do a ‘yellowcake'," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said last year, referring to a step in the process that comes after mining but before enrichment.

Nuclear umbrella

The Saudi push to be included under the US’s nuclear umbrella was a key issue during the Saudi crown prince's visit to the White House in November last year. Days after Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Qatar earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed state in the Muslim world.

Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads. Saudi and Pakistani descriptions of the deal said it encompassed all military options.

The Americans’ nuclear talks with Saudi Arabia have been kept under tight wraps, but one former US intelligence official previously told Middle East Eye that the idea of extending protection to the kingdom could serve a purpose. “It would pull them out of the Pakistanis’ nuclear umbrella and make the Saudis feel better than the Qataris," he said at the time.

In February, the Trump administration notified Congress it is pursuing a civil nuclear pact with Riyadh that does not include non-proliferation safeguards it has traditionally imposed on countries to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons. 

The language in the document also leaves room for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, as it stipulates “additional safeguards and verification measures to the most sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation" between the two countries, including enrichment and reprocessing, the report said. 

A nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that does not explicitly prohibit the kingdom’s potential to enrich uranium in the future would be much more transformative for the region than a separate deal for F-35 warplanes that the Trump administration is pursuing. In nuclear agreements with foreign governments, for example, the UAE, the US made cooperation conditional on commitments that they will not enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel.

The UAE, Morocco and dozens of European and Asian countries have signed the so-called "123 Agreements" with the US. US law generally requires a 123 Agreement to be in force before licensing significant exports of US-origin nuclear material or equipment to a foreign country.

The reported deal would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically under a U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement. Riyadh would sign a 123 agreement, but apparently without first adopting the IAEA Additional Protocol. https://t.co/G4X66hJRAq

— Nicole Grajewski (@NicoleGrajewski) July 19, 2026

In addition to a 123 Agreement, US lawmakers have insisted that the US require Saudi Arabia to submit to what is called the "Additional Protocol", which allows the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) additional access to nuclear facilities, data, and undeclared sites.

The UAE, the only other Gulf state to have officially partnered with the US in nuclear energy, signed the Additional Protocol to its IAEA agreement in 2009.

Reuters reported, however, that the Trump administration sent a preliminary report to some heads of congressional committees in November, which it is required to send if it is not pursuing the Additional Protocol. The Reuters report underscores how Trump is putting deal-making at the centre of his diplomacy, even if it means chafing at the traditional concerns of the US foreign policy establishment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 03:30

Three-Quarters Of Refugee-Linked Households In Vienna Rely On Taxpayer Handouts

Via Remix News,

Three-quarters of households in Vienna connected to migrants from popular asylum-origin countries are unable to support themselves without government benefits, according to figures analyzed by Statistics Austria.

The analysis, cited by Kronen Zeitung, covered approximately 103,000 households across Austria containing at least one recognized refugee, asylum-seeker, or person granted subsidiary protection from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Somalia, or Chechnya in the Russian Federation.

Vienna recorded by far the highest rate of welfare dependence. About 75 percent of the households examined in the capital relied on minimum-income payments or comparable state support, meaning only one in four was considered economically self-sufficient.

Nationwide, 47 percent of the households included in the study could not support themselves independently, according to Exxpress.

For the purposes of the analysis, a household was considered self-sufficient when its income came from employment, pensions, unemployment insurance, or sickness benefits rather than minimum-income assistance and related welfare programs.

The findings stand in sharp contrast to the figures for Austrian households without an immigrant background. Depending on the state, between 90 percent and 93 percent of those households were classified as self-sufficient. Vienna again performed worse than the rest of the country, although its rate among non-immigrant households remained approximately 86 percent.

Integration Minister Claudia Bauer said the figures demonstrated the need to move welfare recipients into employment more rapidly.

“The welfare state should support people in becoming self-sufficient as quickly as possible,” Bauer told the Austrian newspaper. “It should never be attractive to live permanently on social benefits instead of providing for oneself and one’s family through work.”

The minister indicated that future policy would place greater emphasis on enforcing integration obligations. Recipients who refuse to participate in required integration measures could face reductions in taxpayer-funded benefits.

Officials have also pointed to Vienna’s removal of minimum-income support for people granted subsidiary protection. According to data from Austria’s Public Employment Service, unemployment among the affected group subsequently declined by more than one-third.

The government argues that the decline indicates many welfare recipients were capable of finding employment even under difficult economic conditions once benefit rules were tightened.

“Anyone coming to Austria must be able to provide for themselves and their families as quickly as possible,” Bauer said. “Work is the key to integration.”

While Vienna remains a hub for foreigners relying on taxpayer handouts, there are other areas across Austria where the percentages of foreign households raking in welfare benefits are disproportionate.

In January, separate figures showed that foreign nationals accounted for 72 percent of social-assistance recipients in St. Pölten, the capital of Lower Austria.

Of the city’s 1,278 benefit recipients, 528 (41 percent) were Syrian nationals. Another 99 recipients, representing approximately 8 percent, were Afghan nationals. Together, Syrians and Afghans accounted for nearly half of all recipients in a city with a population of approximately 56,000.

Austrian citizens accounted for 359 recipients, or 28 percent of the total, despite representing the large majority of the city’s population.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 02:00

Narrative Control: The Collapsing Authority Of The State

Authored by Jacob Reynolds via 'Academy of Ideas' substack,

Perhaps the central battleground of contemporary politics is the need of our political elites to control the narrative. Primarily, the role of establishment politicians is not to deliver changes and reforms, not to fix problems identified by people in their everyday lives, and not to change circumstances such that they can attract votes, but to maintain narrative hegemony.

Crucially, this differs from previous attempts to maintain ideological hegemony – that is, to win the societal ‘battle of ideas’ – because ideological warfare was always related to the real world. For example, Stalinism’s ideological success was demonstrated in defeating the Nazi industrial machine at its own game, capitalism defeated communism by offering unparalleled standards of living, social democracy was ideologically effective to the degree it demonstrated you could balance both the demands of organised labour with those of economic growth.

By contrast, the attempt at narrative hegemony treats the political realm purely in the domain of information management. This is a political class that has given up on shaping the world and instead looks to shape the narrative.

A variety of attempts to maintain control of the narrative

The news cycle is full of examples that demonstrate that contemporary elites are concerned, above all, with controlling the narrative. Three suffice.

First, there was the recent confirmation of a story which many people had assumed for a long time, although was widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory. The British government has a special division, run out of Whitehall, called the Research, Information and Communications Unit (RICU). The job of RICU is to intervene with victims of potentially ‘racially inflammatory’ crimes and make sure that they ‘calm community tensions’. You could call this the ‘don’t look back in anger’ unit – its job is to make sure that government, victims and the media all stick to a story which encourages people to avoid asking difficult questions.

This unit has been involved in creating media narratives in conjunction with the press, public campaigns like plastering London in posters following the 2017 London Bridge attack, and working with victims’ families (such as the families of Henry Nowak) to write their statements to the press. In all such cases, the RICU unit serves to further the interests of state multiculturalism, force-feeding the public with the message that ‘division’ and ‘demonisation’ are the primary issues, rather than government policies on migration and multiculturalism.

Second, the Department for Media Culture and Sport released a proposal with an almost innocent-sounding name: Watch this space: a new strategic direction for UK media.

It proposes a ‘prominence regime’ for ‘trustworthy’ news on social media and video-sharing platforms. It would make news from public service media plus other ‘trustworthy’ providers ‘prominent and easy to find’. It gives the example of national and local news publishers appearing near the top of people’s social media feeds when they search for news, especially during ‘social unrest or crisis’.

The DCMS worries that online news is now heavily shaped by algorithms, that misinformation and echo chambers can worsen ‘polarisation, conflict and division’. The government will explore legislative options for a news-specific prominence regime on social media. The proposals explicitly raise whether this should be ‘ongoing and always on’ or only active in periods of crisis, and whether users should be allowed to switch it off.

A third example, which although I take from America is extremely relevant here, is the reaction to the brutal murder last year of Iryna Zarutska by Decarlos Brown Jr, a 14-time offender who was repeatedly set free by authorities under the influence of defund-the-police style racial-justice policing policies. Despite the case being an enormous sensation on social media, it took 18 days for the New York Times to comment. When it finally did, the article was a monstrosity of moral evasiveness. ‘A Gruesome Murder in North Carolina Ignites a Firestorm on the Right’, ran the headline, with the piece engaging in a bizarre detour to talk about the ‘egregiously exaggerated stories about Black criminality’ in the Jim Crow era.

The NYT was not alone in preferring to talk about the reaction to the attack rather than the attack itself. Elite barometer Politico went with ‘Ukrainian refugee killed in North Carolina gets dragged into political messaging war’, while Axios complained of ‘MAGA influencers seeking to elevate the issue of violent urban crime’. CNN, not to be outdone, produced this horrific example of the shiftiness of the passive voice: ‘How the lives of a Ukrainian refugee and a Charlotte man with a criminal history converged in a fatal stabbing.’

Clearly, the regime media was concerned above all with ensuring that no one draw any political consequences from the stabbing, which had been going viral on social media for almost a whole week. The issue for these outlets, when it became impossible to simply ignore the issue, was to ensure that widespread concerns about urban criminality, ineffective justice policies and the withdrawal of law and order prompted by the Black Lives Matter movement did not get a hearing. Such concerns are merely ‘right-wing firestorms’ and part of a regrettable ‘political messaging war’.

A very similar logic was seen in the days following the murder of the French student Quentin Deranque earlier this year by Antifa thugs. He had been attending a demonstration organised by a group of young women, and had come along lest they face any trouble. This man was simply murdered in cold blood by a premediated attack of Antifa militants, who picked him out, followed him home, and ambushed him 12-to-1 before kicking him in the head until he was dead. The mainstream French media reported that a far-right activist had died after inciting a confrontation.

In these examples, I don’t even have to mention the explicit censorship systems which now rule the Western world, such as the Online Safety Act or the EU’s Digital Services Act.

What drives attempts at narrative control

What is driving this? Why such a desperate need to exercise total narrative control?

The key to this issue, is, in essence, the following schematic: the established political class are unable to reckon with the sources of their unpopularity, and must employ ever more comprehensive attempts to provide a foundation for their deeply unpopular rule, because they face total destruction. The stakes are existential for them.

One of the fundamental driving facts of contemporary politics is that the ideology of the ruling class is thoroughly discredited. The political pressure on the ruling class is, across the West, extreme. They face, if not electoral annihilation, then electoral defeats to populist forces who, until recently, would have been totally marginal.

But the response of the political mainstream does not include the possibility of introspection. While they might be capable of asking the question why they are unpopular, they are incapable of answering it with a hard look at themselves.

At the same time, this ruling class certainly feels itself under sustained pressure. To invoke the language of Marxism, they feel threatened not just as a government, but as a class. Their class position – their position as the dominant political and economic group in society – is under threat.

These two facts – the inability to look in the mirror and the dread they feel at the approach of a new order – give rise to a response which at the same time focuses their efforts on political messaging and licenses extreme measures. Put together, this sets the stage for some of the most profound and most desperate attempts to control speech that we know in mature democracies.

Because they cannot avail themselves of introspection, they must come up with a particular explanation to understand their unpopularity. They need, to borrow a term from philosophy, an ‘error theory’ – that is, a theory for why it is that their programme, policies and worldview face such opposition. If they are on all issues fundamentally correct, why do people not agree with them? What explains the errors that the populist masses make?

The explanation is, in the time-honoured fashion of anti-democrats since Plato, that the voting masses are not just wrong, but also misled. The masses do not really disagree with the experts, they just lack the skills and knowledge to perceive what the experts have already decided is the truth. The masses have been tricked – tricked by sophists, by propagandists, by the internet, by Elon Musk, by Russians, by populist charlatans. They have been fed a diet of propaganda, hoodwinked by adversarial algorithms, fallen prey to foreign misinformation.

Therefore, the most important task for the ruling class, anxious to solve the problem of the erroneous masses, is to ‘fix’ the narrative imbalance. The problem of political disagreement becomes a problem of political messaging. If the truth has already been decided, but people still don’t see the light, then we need special techniques for bringing the masses to see the truth. Controlling the narrative – arranging what can be seen, heard and said – becomes not an alternative to democracy but the better substantiation of its essence.

At the same time, the class interest of the establishment is keenly felt by them all. This is not merely a possible change of government afoot but a change of regime. We are not talking about different shades of the postwar consensus, but a desire to overturn it entirely. Given how much the stakes have been raised, the available tools have become proportionally more powerful. Things that would have never been conceivable before in democratic peacetime – dawn raids over private messages, the use of the world’s most powerful technologies to change the debate in real time, gagging orders on the press so powerful their existence cannot even be mentioned – have become fair game in the contemporary political contest.

These two features come together to mean that the establishment classes are thus both psychologically and personally motivated to establish ever more elaborate and intrusive schemes for controlling the narrative.

Three strategies of control

We can group these tactics together under three banners

A. Strategies of control

B. Strategies of deception

C. Strategies of delegitimisation

The strategies of control are perhaps the most obvious – the various forms of soft and hard censorship, regulation of the internet and other communications.

The strategies of deception are also quite straightforward to spot. We have already mentioned the ‘don’t look back in anger’ unit, but we should also note the government supply of industrial-grade misinformation. One examples is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) modelling the impact of migration by using info on migration from 20 years ago, ignoring, for example, care workers who bring 15 dependents. Another is the refusal to publish crime statistics broken down by nationality and migration status. NGOs are also part of these strategies of deception.

But so far we have said less about the strategies of delegitimisation. The most obvious example here is the hysterical moral panic around ‘foreign disinformation’ and the attempt to turn all critics of the establishment into various versions of stooges of Vladimir Putin (or, more recently, of Donald Trump).

It literally does not compute for the establishment to see mass discontent as the logical response to their despotic and failed policies, and so the possibility that this as all manipulated by Russia or funded by shady Trump-aligned forces is the only logical step.

Beyond controlling the narrative

This story – a story of a political class engaged in what is effectively an all-out war for survival – seems bleak enough. But it looks increasingly likely that as the narrative control efforts fail, they will intensify their work in more radical directions.

Indeed, the past few days gives us an indication into how Andy Burhnam – who is said to have a more ‘mature’ understanding of the problems of establishment politics – plans to deal with mass discontent. Burnham’s solution is to re-orient the Civil Service away from London. But the small print reveals this is less about devolution than a desire to make the Civil Service less responsive to any future Reform government: Politico reveals he aims to ‘rewire’ the Civil Service to head off Farage.

This is just one part of a playbook now well-established in continental Europe. Macron has led the continent in ‘future-proofing’ the state against populist adversaries: key political allies of President Macron are being appointed to the top of major French institutions like the courts, the national bank and the armed forces.

But in addition, British bureaucrats will be considering adopting the whole continental package: mobilisation of paid Antifa to attack political opponents, the use of lawfare against opponents such as banning and financial investigations, and the solidifying of the deep state.

Reasons for optimism

Despite this dark picture, we actually have reasons to be far more optimistic about what the future holds. Ultimately, the reason for all of the efforts at narrative control is that the establishment have already lost the ideological battle, and their desperate attempts stem from the anticipation that they are about to lose the political battle as well.

The reason they lost is twofold. On the one hand, the impact of their policies have become unavoidable. On the other hand, a tremendous rebellion has taken place among ordinary people, fuelled by the tenacious work of an insurgent ideological counterweight.

Their fear is the justified fear of the losing party. They are terrified because of the enormous cumulative work of the great populist revolt. Just as the night is darkest before dawn or the cornered animal is capable of great violence, the established order is, I think, on its last legs. This means we should be both watchful but also cautiously optimistic.

Ultimately, the reason for elite panic is the mass of popular discontent. It is this desire for something profoundly different that is the condition for all our efforts to overturn the narrative hegemony that we would otherwise be subject to.

*  *  *

Jacob Reynolds is convenor of the Academy, an intellectual retreat which is an initiative of the charity Ideas Matter, taking place on August 22nd & 23rd. Tickets and more here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 23:25

Oregon Sees Disturbing Spike In Gender Transition Therapy For Children

If you're curious to see what the US would look like under an entrenched progressive regime, deep blue states like Oregon offer special insight.  Four years of woke Democrats running the show under the Biden Administration was bad enough - Pride flags draped across the White House and naked transgenders dancing across the lawn was an embarrassing moment for the nation. 

However, for people living on the West Coast, the agenda continues unabated.

The children of blue states are still on the menu, and Oregon is surpassing them all with an acceleration of gender-based indoctrination.  According to a recent study published in Oxford Academic's Research Connections, children in Oregon are up to three times more likely to be diagnosed with gender dysphoria compared to the national average.

The study maintains that the rate of gender treatments in Oregon remains "rare", but when the numbers are compared to most states across the country a disturbing trend becomes visible.  Using insurance data as a baseline, the authors note that between 2016 and 2023, roughly 1 in 240 girls and 1 in 630 boys in Oregon received cross-sex hormones by age 17.  These rates are about 3x the national average for girls and 2x for boys (even higher - 4x to 5x - at ages 14 -15). 

Oregon is the only U.S. state to formally adopt WPATH standards of care. This expands Medicaid coverage for hormones and surgeries, in many cases with no age minimums.  The state also passed shield laws, which allow 15-year-olds to consent without parental notification.

The study's authors argue this creates demand for gender based treatments rather than merely responding to a legitimate need for them.  In other words, the trans trend in Oregon is artificially created through false diagnosis. 

Add to this Oregon's gender fluid indoctrination programs which have invaded all levels of the state's public school system, and you get an ideological factory churning out brainwashed children who are then automatically diagnosed with gender dysphoria and "transitioned" before they have a chance to recognize what is happening to them.  

The trans trend in Oregon is an extension of the woke takeover of American popular culture and politics starting in 2011-2012.  From 2011 to 2022 in the US, there was a 100% increase in minors identifying as "trans" and a 285% increase in adults identifying as trans.  In Europe the increase was even more expansive.  In the UK, for example, the rate of trans identification jumped 50-fold. 

This explosion in gender dysphoria coincided with an avalanche of gender fluid and LGBT propaganda which was not effectively exposed until recently.  Today the wider public is aware of the trans agenda, but the fight to expose the targeting of children has been arduous. 

Until a few years ago, Democrats outright denied that children were being given hormone blockers and gender-bending surgeries despite all the evidence to the contrary.  The gas lighting was unprecedented.  Blue states remain strongholds of woke cultism, and any children living in places like Oregon will still be preyed upon.     

The latest studies confirm what many conservatives have suspected all along; that the sudden surge in trans identifying people is being driven by ideological pressure - An invasion of woke politics into the medical industry within blue states.     

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 23:00

Is China Sabotaging America's Data Centers?

Authored by Lipton Matthews via American Greatness,

China is the one foreign power with both the resources and the strategic incentive to shape American technology.

Washington’s preoccupation with foreign influence has become almost reflexive, though curiously selective in its targets. Some lawmakers have built entire political identities around scrutinizing the influence of the Israel lobby on American foreign policy. Similarly, journalists trace Qatari money through American think tanks, and analysts fervently scrutinize Gulf investment in universities and sports franchises. Yet China, the one foreign power with both the resources and the strategic incentive to shape American technology and energy policy, occupies a curiously small share of this scrutiny. Given the evidence now available, that imbalance deserves correction.

Neville Roy Singham makes for an instructive starting point. Having sold his software consulting firm for hundreds of millions of dollars, Singham relocated to Shanghai, where he now works from an office shared with a Chinese media company whose stated mission is promoting Beijing’s narratives to foreign audiences. From that base, he has directed substantial funding toward a cluster of American nonprofits, including The People’s Forum, the ANSWER Coalition, and BreakThrough News, whose output consistently aligns with the positions of the Chinese government on major geopolitical questions. A visitor to his office once documented a banner reading “Always Follow the Party,” a detail that leaves little room for ambiguity about the network’s orientation.

What transforms this from an unusual biography into a matter of genuine political consequence is the organization that carries this network’s influence into American civic life. The Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) openly calls for the replacement of the American government through revolutionary means rather than electoral politics, and its senior leadership is drawn almost entirely from the executives who run Singham’s nonprofits. 

The party’s 2024 presidential nominee, Claudia de la Cruz, co-founded The People’s Forum. Her running mate directs one of Singham’s grantmaking bodies. Separately, the editor of BreakThrough News sits on the party’s central committee. This is not a loose ideological affinity between separate organizations. It is the same leadership operating under different institutional names.

That leadership has directed considerable energy toward one particular front, the American buildout of AI infrastructure. Across 21 documented campaigns in 14 states, the party has served as either the lead organizer or a significant participant in efforts that produced 10 local moratoriums, one permanent ban, and billions of dollars in delayed or canceled data-center investment. In Charlotte, party organizers ran a sustained door-to-door campaign ahead of a unanimous council vote to pause new data-center construction. In Prince George’s County, they trained residents to pressure local officials and helped build a petition that gathered 20,000 signatures before the county moved to halt permitting.

It would be a mistake to characterize the underlying opposition as manufactured. Concerns about water consumption and rising electricity costs are genuine and widely shared. But real grievances offer convenient cover, and an organization with documented financial ties to a Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-aligned network has positioned itself at the center of that anger while disclosing almost nothing about its own funding, since it maintains no registered nonprofit status and files no public financial statements for its general operations.

This pattern of quiet institutional penetration is not confined to street-level activism. It reaches into the universities that train the next generation of American policymakers. Tax filings obtained by the Washington Free Beacon show that Energy Foundation China, a nonprofit led by former Chinese government officials, sent $1.2 million to Harvard University and four campuses within the University of California system in 2024, nearly double what it had given the year before. The group’s chief executive previously served as a senior Chinese government climate negotiator, and the chairman of its board once worked as a director for China’s national legislature.

Its own staff roster reads like a directory of former Chinese state officials, including a one-time senior figure at the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau and a former manager of overseas infrastructure projects for a subsidiary of a state-run industrial conglomerate. One watchdog group described the organization bluntly as nothing more than an influence operation of the CCP.

The funding pattern is telling in its own right. Since 2020, the group has funneled more than $15 million into American universities and nonprofits while spending over $200 million domestically in China, a ratio that undercuts its public claim to be a nonpartisan charity focused solely on emissions reduction. Its money has also flowed to advocacy organizations that shape federal energy regulation directly, including a Washington research group that champions electric vehicle mandates and a Colorado think tank behind efforts to restrict gas stoves. Taken together, the strategy looks less like philanthropy and more like an attempt to steer American energy policy toward technologies that China already dominates, a shift that would deepen rather than reduce American dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

None of this activity occurs in isolation from the digital sphere. OpenAI’s own security researchers recently disclosed that they banned a cluster of ChatGPT accounts operating from China, likely tied to a private firm serving provincial government clients, whose purpose was to generate social media content blaming data centers and artificial intelligence for rising household electricity bills. This material was not crudely fabricated. It was crafted to blend seamlessly with legitimate reporting on regional power pricing, complete with matching hashtags intended to blend inauthentic commentary into an authentic public conversation.

A related cluster pursued a parallel objective, producing cartoons critical of American tariff policy while explicitly instructing the model to depict only President Trump and to exclude any images of Xi Jinping, ensuring that blame for economic tension landed on a single, familiar target. This same network has been linked to accounts spreading false claims that ChatGPT user data had been compromised, an apparent attempt to erode public confidence in a leading American AI company, a tactic that closely resembles earlier Chinese campaigns against Western firms working to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supply chains. It is worth pausing on one particular irony here. These operators chose to use an American AI system to generate propaganda undermining trust in American AI, rather than relying on any of China’s own domestic models.

Three separate strands of evidence now point toward the same conclusion from three different directions.

• One traces institutional funding, nonprofit leadership, and political organizing through American civic institutions.

• Another traces academic grants flowing quietly into Harvard and the University of California from an organization run by former Chinese officials.

• A third traces synthetic content, banned accounts, and coordinated amplification through American social media platforms.

All three converge on a single strategic objective: eroding public confidence in the infrastructure, institutions, and companies that underpin America’s position in energy and artificial intelligence.

None of this justifies treating every data-center protester, university researcher, or critic of AI policy as an unwitting instrument of foreign interference.

The vast majority of them are not.

But when a Shanghai-based financier’s nonprofit network, a revolutionary political party sharing its leadership, a Beijing-linked climate group funding elite American universities, and a state-linked propaganda operation all converge on adjacent fronts within the same narrow window of time, that convergence constitutes a pattern rather than a coincidence.

It is a pattern that has, so far, received far less attention than it warrants and one that deserves a far more prominent place in America’s ongoing conversation about who is trying to shape its politics from abroad.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 22:35

National Guard Deployment To DC Will Continue Until Trump's Term Ends

A new extension of the National Guard’s deployment to Washington will keep guardsmen in the nation’s capital until President Donald Trump’s term ends in more than two years.

The Pentagon confirmed on Thursday that the mission for which National Guard troops were deployed will continue until Jan. 20, 2029, or until the president terminates it.

The extension would allow National Guard members to remain in Washington until the next president is inaugurated, unless Trump ends the deployment early.

The deployment was previously scheduled to expire at the end of 2026.

As Timothy Fudd details below for The Epoch Times, Trump first deployed the National Guard to Washington in August 2025. He said the capital was “under siege from violent crime” and suggested that Washington’s local government had “lost control of public order and safety.”

“It is my duty to our citizens and Federal workers to secure the safety and the peaceful functioning of our Nation, the Federal Government, and our city,” Trump said in a presidential memorandum.

As of July 8, the task force said 5,148 guardsmen had been assigned to Washington. The War Department previously confirmed that about half of the National Guard members currently deployed in Washington had been sent to the capital to support operations during the nation’s 250th anniversary celebration.

Metropolitan Police Department crime statistics from Jan. 1 to July 17 showed that homicides have dropped by 38 percent compared with the same period last year. Additionally, robberies have decreased by 18 percent, motor vehicle thefts by 53 percent, and property crimes by 23 percent.

While total crime is down 20 percent from last year, the number of assaults with a dangerous weapon has increased by 45 percent. Total violent crime has also increased by 1 percent from last year.

During an address at Washington’s Meridian Hill Park on July 2, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth credited National Guard members serving in support of the D.C. Safe and Beautiful Task Force for what he described as a “staggering” crime drop in Washington.

Speaking to more than 500 National Guard members, Hegseth said, “You’re not from Washington, most of you, but this is your capital, and you believe in this 250th year that it should be safe and it should be secure for every single citizen that lives here and every single citizen that comes to visit.”

Air Force Gen. Steven Nordhaus, chief of the National Guard Bureau, also credited National Guard members for saving more than 235 lives, providing more than 530 medical assists, and restoring children to their families 27 times.

While Hegseth said crime has “dropped in staggering amounts” with the task force’s support, some local government officials have criticized the deployment of National Guard members to Washington.

“Taxpayers are paying more than a million dollars a day to have them walk around,” City Council Chairman Phil Mendelson said in April.

He added that “the presence of armed soldiers on American streets is not a good look.”

The Congressional Budget Office previously released a report suggesting that the continued deployment of National Guard members in Washington could cost $55 million a month, based on an estimate of 2,950 guardsmen.

Following Trump’s order for National Guard members to support law enforcement operations in Washington, two National Guard members were shot in the city last fall. Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom died from her injuries, while Air Force Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe was badly injured.

The suspected shooter was later identified as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a 29-year-old Afghan national. Lakanwal was charged with 17 counts, including first-degree murder, in a superseding indictment in June. He has pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 22:10

The False Choice Facing American Agriculture

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

This week, I was talking with one of my neighbors, a good man who raises hay and runs a cow-calf operation. As we discussed different approaches to grazing and pasture management, he laughed and called some of my ideas "fantastical fairy tales." We both laughed.

A farmer moves cattle from one pasture to another at a farm outside Swoope, Va., in 2024. Jeff Louderback/The Epoch Times

We've known each other long enough that neither of us took offense. The truth is, some days even my husband thinks my ideas sound like fairy tales. Still, those conversations stay with me because I believe my greatest talent isn't that I'm always right. Far from it.

My greatest talent is observing the world as honestly as I can and trying to make sense of it. Sometimes, those observations lead me to ideas that seem strange at first. Sometimes, they prove me wrong. Every now and then, they point toward something worth trying.

When I look across my neighbor's ranch, I don't see someone doing everything wrong. I see someone working incredibly hard within a system he knows well. I also see possibilities. I see a ranch that could support more cattle through planned, holistic grazing. I see more diverse forage creating healthier soils, reducing fertilizer needs, and making the pasture more resilient during both drought and heavy rain. I see a business that could become more profitable by relying less on purchased inputs and letting the land do more of the work.

Would every one of those ideas succeed? I honestly don't know. Nature has a way of humbling anyone who thinks they've figured everything out. But if we're unwilling to ask the question, we'll never discover the answer.

That conversation reminded me of the political debate surrounding agriculture today. Increasingly, we're told we have to choose between two competing goals. Either we support farmers making a living, or we support healthy, nutrient-dense food. One side talks almost exclusively about production and profitability. The other talks almost exclusively about health and sustainability. As if those two goals are somehow incompatible.

I reject that premise entirely.

I know regenerative farmers who produce incredible food but struggle to pay the bills. Some days I count myself among them. I also know conventional farmers who have built profitable businesses that have supported their families for generations.

At the same time, I know regenerative farmers whose operations are thriving because they've reduced input costs, improved their land's productivity, and built businesses around healthier soil.

I also know conventional farmers who are struggling under debt, rising fertilizer prices, volatile markets, and shrinking margins. The labels don't explain success or failure nearly as well as people want them to.

Maybe we're asking the wrong question. Instead of arguing over which system is better, why aren't we asking what the best farmers are doing? What can profitable farmers teach those who are struggling? What can farmers producing healthier, more nutrient-dense food teach everyone else? Why do politics and the media insist these ideas belong on opposite teams when they could be working together?

I've watched this play out on my own ranch. For years, my uncle cared for our pigs, but recently, he admitted that age had caught up with him and the physical demands were becoming too much. My husband stepped in, and before changing anything, we visited other hog farmers, asked questions, and looked at different management systems. Some of the ideas seemed unnecessary. Others challenged habits that had been in place for years. We decided to try them anyway.

We built larger paddocks, gave the pigs more pasture, and changed the way we managed their feed. The pigs are gaining the same weight on the same land while using roughly half as much feed. We didn't discover a miracle ration. We changed the management. Sometimes there's a real cost to being stuck in our ways.

I've seen the same lesson with our cattle. We've always rotated our cows, but I struggled to convince my husband that moving them multiple times throughout the day would make enough difference to justify the effort.

Then, a young man who had come to live with us as a teenager challenged both of us. He has become one of the most committed, hardest-working regenerative farmers I know. He reads grazing magazines, studies successful ranchers from around the country, and is constantly looking for better ways to steward the land.

He believed our cattle would benefit from more frequent moves, and my husband was willing to experiment. Instead of creating dozens of tiny paddocks, he found a practical compromise. He still builds a larger paddock, then simply moves one strand of wire forward 20 or 25 feet at a time throughout the day. The cattle naturally follow the fresh forage, the pasture receives more recovery time, and the improvement has been obvious enough that neither of us questions whether the extra effort is worthwhile.

My husband didn't change his mind because I won an argument. He changed his mind because the land made the argument for me.

That's how agriculture has always advanced. Farmers observe. They experiment. They borrow good ideas from neighbors. They keep what works and abandon what doesn't. The best farmers I've met aren't loyal to a label. They're loyal to learning.

Unfortunately, our political system often rewards the opposite. Agriculture, like healthcare, energy, and many other industries, has become deeply intertwined with government and powerful financial interests. Companies that sell seed, fertilizer, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and feed all have every right to advocate for their businesses.

But when those industries become deeply connected to the policymakers who write the rules, the conversation tends to narrow. The question stops being, "What produces the healthiest soil, the healthiest people, and the most resilient farms?" and becomes, "How do we protect the system we've already built?"

That partnership between government and large industry wasn't something ordinary Americans voted for, yet it increasingly shapes the choices placed before farmers and consumers alike.

None of this means every conventional practice is wrong or every regenerative practice is right. It means we should be deeply suspicious whenever politics tells us we must choose between two goals that can clearly coexist.

Healthy food and profitable farms are not opposing ideas. Across this country, there are farmers proving every day that both are possible. Instead of asking which side should win, perhaps we should spend more time learning from the people who are already getting both right.

Maybe my neighbor will always think some of my ideas sound like fairy tales. That's okay. If I've learned anything from farming, it's that today's fairy tale has a funny way of becoming tomorrow's common practice. The greatest resource on any farm isn't the land, the livestock, or the equipment. It's a farmer who's still willing to ask, "What if there's a better way?"

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 21:45

Woman Walks Into Ontario Police Department With Live World War II Grenade

An Ontario police department is warning residents not to bring unexploded military munitions to the station after a woman walked in carrying a live World War II grenade, according to the NY Post.

The incident happened at an Ottawa-area Ontario Provincial Police detachment, where officers said a resident arrived with the decades-old explosive after finding it while cleaning out her basement.

The Post writes that the 77-year-old woman was immediately told to leave the grenade outside the building as a precaution.

Police later said the device was secured until the Canadian Forces' explosives team could safely remove and dispose of it.

Photo: NY Post/Facebook/Ontario Provincial Police – East Region

Officials used the incident to remind the public that unexploded ordnance can remain dangerous even after sitting untouched for decades.

“You don’t know what condition they’re in, whether they can still explode,” Ontario Provincial Police spokesperson Michael Fathi told the Ottawa Citizen. “You don’t want to take a chance.”

The department stressed that anyone who discovers old grenades, bombs, shells or other military explosives should never transport them.

Instead, residents are urged to leave the item exactly where it is, keep a safe distance and call local police, who will arrange for an explosives disposal unit to handle it safely.

“This could obviously prove extremely dangerous to the person bringing the item and others around,” the department warned.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 21:20