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US Energy Chief Says Hormuz Can Reopen Without Clearing All Mines, Warns Iran Shut-ins Could Be Devastating

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that not all mines placed by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz need to removed for ships to resume transiting the vital passageway: “You just need a pathway for ships to be moved in and out,” Wright said in an interview on the sidelines of the Three Seas Summit and Business Forum in Dubrovnik. “I think that can happen quickly” he added suggesting that a restart can happen far sooner than the full demining timeline. Fully clearing the strait of mines could take six months, a Pentagon official said during a classified Congressional briefing last week, the Washington Post reported.

Iran has said it laid mines along the most frequently used routes of the narrow waterway, which has been effectively closed since February 28, and through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited before the US and Israel launched a war on the Islamic Republic.

Understandably, shipping companies have been highly reluctant to attempt to navigate Hormuz, fearing seizure, mines, and a lack of other safety guarantees.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz is shut the longer a historic energy disruption will continue. In the US, a surge in pump prices comes months before President Donald Trump’s Republican party faces midterm elections.

Wright also said the US plans to announce “historic” pipeline agreements that will lead to increases in the amount of US oil and natural gas Europe imports as part of the Trump “Peace Pipeline Agenda.”

Last but not least, the US energy secretary repeated verbatim what we said over the weekend, when we pointed out that a prolonged shut in would be devastating to Iran's oil reservoirs as over half of them are low pressure "putting them at risk for permanent loss after shut-ins, via near-wellbore water emulsions, clay swelling, and water blockages."

Most Gulf reservoirs have medium pressure, but over half of Iran's have very low pressure, putting them at risk for permanent loss after shut-ins, via near-wellbore water emulsions, clay swelling, and water blockages(chart Rystad/Goldman). https://t.co/I1duGf7s1R pic.twitter.com/9kIoKzDT6g

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2026

Fast forward to this morning, when Wright told Bloomberg TV that "Iran does not have a lot of oil storage capacity and its old reservoirs are not suitable if the country decides to shut down production." That's because “they’ve got old reservoirs that are low pressure, which means it’s much more destructive if they have to shut in their production."

With Iran having about 10-15 days before hitting tank tops (depending on how many tankers they use for storage), we'll find out in a few weeks if he is right. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:05

Collateral Damage

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-ASset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Negotiations between the US and Iran are going nowhere. In fact, they’re not really even happening at all. Over the weekend, Axios reported that Iran gave the US a proposal to reopen the Strait — not to end the war. The proposal includes extending the ceasefire and an assertion that any conversations about Iran’s nuclear program are off the table until the Strait is open and the US blockade is lifted. The US has not indicated whether it will accept or reject the proposal at the time of writing.

Assuming the US does agree to extend its indefinite ceasefire, a flimsy ceasefire extension, even if agreed to by both parties, holds little water. Remember, keeping the Strait open was a condition of the current ceasefire as agreed to on April 8, and we can all see how well that held up. Just take a look at the prices at the pump.

While conversations between the US and Iran stall, Iran is making friends elsewhere. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Putin yesterday, as Bloomberg reported that Araghchi told Putin he is “committed to strengthening the country’s partnership with Russia” and that “the Iranian people are able to ‘resist US aggression and will be able to overcome it.’”

As Iran and Russia are making nice, the US and Germany are not. During a visit to a school in western Germany, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the Trump Administration was being “humiliated” by Iran: “The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.” Trump has not commented on Merz’ claims at the time of writing.

The longer the Strait remains closed, the longer the European economy, and energy complex, is squeezed. Germany has rejected Trump’s calls to join the war under NATO, despite German leaders softly echoing support of US military efforts. Europe has drafted a plan to re-open the Strait after the war has ended, that is not enough to appease Trump, who has made his demands for NATO participation in the Iran war clear. But the question remains just how much collateral damage Europe is willing to be subject to in the pursuit of keeping its hands clean.

Europe’s reliance on energy from the Middle East and direct flows through the Strait of Hormuz suggest that they are in for more pain than the US under a prolonged closure. At the same time, they don’t have a fanatic obduracy to tolerate it like the Iran (or rather, the IRGC at the expense of the Iranian people). If negotiations fail to result in a somewhat peaceful re-opening of the Strait and conclusion of the US naval blockade, Europe may have no choice but to get involved.

It’s probable that the Trump Administration is aware of this. Trump has lambasted European leaders for refusing to support the US and in some cases, outright refusing to cooperate. If the US keeps the Strait closed and inflicts enough second-hand damage on Europe, Trump may be able to achieve the NATO military “cooperation” he has been asking for.

Crude oil futures have continued to grind higher, trading up to highs of $109/bbl yesterday. Futures prices have started to converge with the physical market, which is currently pricing crude at $113/bbl, narrowing the spread from highs of $35.9 earlier this month to only $4, which would be more consistent with levels seen pre-war.

Meanwhile, the Fed drama saga continues. The path to Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair seems to have cleared as the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has dropped its criminal probe into Powell with regard to the Federal Reserve’s renovation budget. However, whether Powell will stay on the Board is not yet certain. While Powell’s term as Chair ends in May, he is allowed to stay on the Board of Governors until January 2028.

Despite it being a highly popular question from reporters during the Fed decision press conference, Powell had been tight lipped about his plans for a while, until confirming more recently that he would stay on the Board until the DOJ investigation levied against him was concluded.

However, while the DOJ has dismissed the case, that doesn’t mean that Powell’s troubles are over. Rather, this means that the case has now landed on the desk of the Fed’s Office of Inspector General (OIG), though according to the Fed’s own article about the renovation, the OIG has had full access to all financial records and information throughout the duration of the project.

Given the dropped charges against Powell, that has opened up Senator Thom Tillis to vote to officially confirm Warsh as Fed Chair. Whether or not the Fed meeting tomorrow will be Powell’s last is still TBD. Read more from our Fed whisperer, Philip Marey, here.

A little farther north, Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced the creation of a Canadian sovereign wealth fund, called the “Canada Strong Fund.” The fund is designed to further lower barriers to business and investment in Canada—something the Carney has spoken about extensively as a part of his mission—by “investing in strategic Canadian projects and companies.”

A more financially-savvy Canadian government does not come without drawbacks. Carney has recently come under scrutiny by some after his ethics disclosure, which has led some to question the dissonance in Carney’s insistence that Canada needs to diversify away from the US, while he himself is heavily invested there.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:15

Conference Board Confidence Unexpectedly Jumps To Highest In 2026

Despite war (and rising gas prices) now fully embedded in respondents' minds, it is perhaps surprising that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence rose considerably more than expected to 92.8 in April (89.0 exp) from an upwardly revised 92.2.

Present Situation dipped very modestly from 124.1 to 123.8 (120.1 exp) while Expectations rose from 71.0 to 72.2 (69.2 exp)

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest headline print in 2026.

“Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

"This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”

While the overall trend is still lower, The Board's indicator signaled a pick up in the labor market...

Source: Bloomberg

A two-week ceasefire and a rebound in stock market indices within the survey-sample period (April 1–22) likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March.

Still, consumers remained wary.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now ticked up.

 

Among demographic groups, confidence continued to trend downward on a six-month moving average basis for consumers aged 35 and up while younger consumers were a tad more confident in April. Respondents under 35 remained the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least.

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence improved among Millennials and Gen Z but declined among older generations. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis varied, but most income groups expressed less optimism.

By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence fell for Independents and improved slightly for Democrats.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:11

'Quality Learing Center' And 20 Other Somali-Linked Businesses Raided By FBI, Homeland Security In Minnesota

Federal agents from the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) executed court-authorized search warrants at more than 20 locations across the Minneapolis area early Tuesday morning, targeting businesses primarily linked to the Somali-American community as part of an ongoing criminal fraud investigation.

Fox News congressional correspondent Bill Melugin reported that the Department of Justice confirmed the operation to the network, stating it involves "court-authorized law enforcement activity as part of an ongoing fraud investigation." A separate DHS statement emphasized that HSI, working with federal, state, and local partners, carried out the warrants "relating to the rampant fraud of U.S. taxpayers dollars." Sources indicated approximately 22 warrants were served, explicitly tied to fraud schemes rather than immigration enforcement.

BREAKING: DOJ confirms to @FoxNews that FBI and HSI agents are currently raiding 20+ locations in the Minneapolis, MN area in relation to ongoing federal fraud investigations. Sources tell FOX the locations are largely Somali linked businesses, including the infamous "Quality…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 28, 2026

One prominent target was the Quality Learning Center (aka "Quality Learing Center") on Nicollet Avenue. The site, which previously operated as Salama Child Care Center, received roughly $1.9 million in Minnesota Child Care Assistance Program funds in fiscal year 2025 alone. It gained national attention in late December 2025 after independent journalist Nick Shirley released a video showing the center appearing largely empty during business hours, with a prominently misspelled sign. Shirley alleged widespread "ghost" operations billing government programs for nonexistent services and children.

NEW: The Quality Learing Center in Minneapolis is now "trucking" in children after Nick Shirley's viral video, according to the New York Post.

The Post reports that the parking lot at the infamous Quality Learing Center is now "bustling with kids."

"We’ve never seen kids go… pic.twitter.com/K578UTvLXG

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 30, 2025

The center voluntarily surrendered its state license in early January amid heightened scrutiny. It had a prior federal footprint: in May 2015, the same location was raided by the FBI and Minnesota DHS over allegations of billing state programs for non-existent children, leading to license revocation actions for safety violations.

A Pattern of Massive Fraud

Today’s raids continue a months-long federal surge into Minnesota’s social-services programs, which have been plagued by some of the largest fraud cases in recent U.S. history. The most notorious remains Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that prosecutors say orchestrated a $250+ million scheme to steal federal child nutrition funds during the COVID-19 pandemic through fake meal sites, inflated attendance rosters, and money laundering. Dozens of defendants—predominantly Somali-American—have been charged, with multiple convictions and sentencings continuing into 2026.

Other active investigations include:

• Autism and early intervention (EIDBI) services fraud
• Housing Stabilization Services
• Integrated Community Supports
• Medicaid personal-care assistance schemes
• SNAP benefit trafficking (including "Operation Cold SNAP" raids in April 2026)

In January, Federal authorities reported issuing over 1,750 subpoenas, executing more than 130 search warrants, and interviewing over 1,000 witnesses across these cases.

Homeland Security Investigations @ICEGov are on the ground in Minneapolis right now conducting a massive investigation on childcare and other rampant fraud.

More coming. pic.twitter.com/0DhyKedSyu

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@EnvoyNoem) December 29, 2025

FBI Director Kash Patel publicly described the Minnesota situation as "the tip of a very large iceberg," prompting a surge of bureau resources to the state. DHS has conducted hundreds of door-to-door inspections under initiatives such as Operation Twin Shield.

Political and Community Context

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison have faced sharp criticism from congressional Republicans and House Oversight committees for what critics call inadequate oversight of high-risk providers and slow state-level responses. State officials have countered that many centers serve legitimate low-income families (including large Somali-American populations) and that enforcement actions predate viral videos.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, whose district encompasses much of the affected Minneapolis area, has condemned the fraud as "reprehensible" while warning against broad stigmatization of the Somali community.

Her office has distanced itself from charged individuals, though some Republican lawmakers have pointed to past legislative efforts (such as expansions of child nutrition programs) and constituent ties as areas of scrutiny. No charges have been filed against Omar or her immediate family in these matters.

Somali community leaders have expressed concerns about economic fallout and reputational harm to legitimate businesses, while federal prosecutors stress that the investigations target criminal conduct and protect funds intended for vulnerable populations.

As of early Tuesday, no arrests or specific new charges from today’s warrants have been publicly detailed. More information is expected from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Minnesota, the FBI’s Minneapolis Field Office, and DHS. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:50

Chaos, Black Rain, Evacuations: Tuapse Oil Facility Struck For Third Time This Month

Rosneft's sprawling oil refinery in southern port town of Tuapse has been struck by Ukrainian drones once again, unleashing a huge fire and significant destruction, in what marks the third such attack just this month.

"Another serious incident has occurred in Tuapse. A large-scale fire broke out at an oil refinery due to an enemy drone attack," Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram, amid large-scale evacuations of the civilian population from the area.

Tuapse disaster in wake of Ukrainian attack, via Wiki Commons

Regional aviation hubs in nearby Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, and Sochi were closed as a result of the blaze which sent a large black smoke plume into the air stretching for at least 100km, regional reports indicate.

"For the safety of residents living near the refinery, evacuations are underway. A temporary accommodation center has been set up at local School No. 6. I urge residents to follow all recommendations," the regional government statement continued.

According to Ukrainian media:

The Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel CyberBoroshno reported that at least four tanks were burning at the refinery following the strike.

“If in previous attacks the tank farm was hit, this time the refinery itself was directly targeted… There is a possibility that the fire could spread to neighboring tanks,” the report said.

Reuters says that as a result of the several waves of attacks on Tuapse, operations at the plant have remained halted since April 16 - which was the first big strike of the month.

One is left wondering, what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:

"Intensive efforts are underway" to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: "As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time."

Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken "at an appropriate level."

The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.

Rusya'nın Tuapse Petrol Rafinerisi, düzenlenen dron saldırısı sonucu yeniden alev aldı. Görüntülerde, önceki saldırılardan sağlam kalan yeni depolama tanklarının isabet alarak patladığı görülüyor. pic.twitter.com/HLc61fGH8B

— The Bitig (@thebitig) April 28, 2026

The attacks have made parts of the sky black and the aftermath poses a safety risk for residents, also with reports of 'toxic rain' over the town, as the environmental situation spiraling - also with significant amounts of crude said to be leaking into the Black Sea.

Currently the globe's attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:35

OpenAI Misses Revenue, User Targets As CFO Fears $1.5 Trillion In Commitments Can't Be Paid

Earlier today, when previewing this week's earnings by the Mag 7 which account for over $10 trillion in market cap set to report Q1 results after the close on Wednesday, Goldman's Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky said that "Equities are being driven by one thing…AI spend", and warned that "it's hard not to respect the strength of the AI bid, but the velocity has been extreme. The upside surprise vs expectations has almost entirely come from AI spend…it’s the whole game." 

Not only is the whole game, it is the one thing that has prevented the market from collapsing into the Iran war's stagflationary black hole, with "oil/product prices is sucking the oxygen out of the room...Europe underperforming, dispersion extreme." 

But none of that matters as long as capex recipients, i.e., chip and semi stocks, keep surging on hopes and expectations that the LLMs and hyperscalers will keep pumping them full of cash day after day, for the unforeseeable future, which they have so far: recall that at the end of Q4, full-year capex estimates soared to a mindblowing $740 billion among just 6 hyperscalers (a number which is expected to rise to almost $1 trillion in 2027).

And at top of this trickle-down monetary waterfall is none other than Sam Altman's OpenAi, generously peeing money into the overeager mouths of hyperscalers around the globe, having built up staggering purchase commitments to the tune of $1.5 trillion because there will never be enough compute. 

Maybe Sam's right: perhaps there truly is an insatiable need for compute (unless of course one uses Chinese LLMs and/or RAM chips, both of which have a fraction of the hardware demands of the latest and greatest US technology). 

The problem arises when one asks if OpenAI will ever be enough revenue to satisfy these astronomic commitments. 

For much of the past year, that has been the core thesis behind countless AI bear cases: now that even Michael Hartnett openly calls tech a "bubble", the question is not if but when, to which the bulls have calmly countered that as long as the drunken-sailor at the helm of OpenAi keeps spending at the rate he has been, the "when" isn't coming any time soon.

It now appears, however, that the "when" may have come much sooner than most thought. 

According to the WSJ, OpenAI has recently missed its own targets for both new users and revenue, stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it will be able to support its massive spending on data centers.

One of them is the company's finance chief: CFO Sarah Friar told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough. In other words, that $1.5 trillion OpenAI had pledged to spend on various data centers, GPUs and memory chips... you can kiss all that goodbye.

Of course, none of this will come as a surprise to anyone familiar with Sam's mercurial style of capital allocation. As a reminder, when OpenAi made its $1.5 trillion flurry of deal announcements last fall, a few things were missing, among them how it plans to fund them, details of the bulk of the financial terms, and any mention of who was providing independent, clear-eyed advice on these complex mega transactions. The reason for that, as the FT reported at the time, is OpenAI still doesn’t know exactly how it will fund them, the terms mostly don’t exist, and advisers were overwhelmingly shunned.

In fact, we learned last October, Sam Altman came up with the “bold vision” himself and leaned heavily on a small number of lieutenants to flesh out the details and push the deals through with little involvement of bankers or lawyers.

One of the brilliant side quests completed by Altman during this period of epic obfuscation (and unprecedented wealth generation by Sam for himself from a "non-profit" thanks to nothing more than promises) was unleashing the AI circle jerk, pardon, circular financing concept, where one company would "invest" in its customer, only to see that money flow back to its through the income statement but not before lifting its PE by several turns; this process would be repeated countless of times lifting all AI valuations substantially even if no actual revenue or cash flow was created. Eventually, virtually every company in the AI sector was wrapped up in such circular structures that tied together suppliers, investors and customers (see "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk".")

Yet promises (and lies) can only go so far, and even the loftiest of grand schemes are eventually brought to the ground when the revenue fails to materialize. As it has for OpenAi.

As a result, the company's board of directors have started to closely examine the company’s data-center deals in recent months and questioned Sam Altman’s efforts to secure even more computing power despite the business slowdown, the WSJ reported.

The spending scrutiny is constraining Altman’s once-boundless ambitions ahead of a potential IPO that could take place by the end of the year (he desperately wants to go public before his former employee and arch nemesis, Dario Amodei takes Anthropic public).

Friar and other executives are now seeking to control costs and instill more discipline in the business, at times putting them at odds with their CEO; this may very well mean that the money spigot that has pumped hundreds of billions in capex promises is about to be shut as well, leaving the entire AI ecosystem in a Wile E Coyote moment, suspended in the air off the cliff, just before gravity kicks in.

In a desperate attempt to keep reality as far away as possible, the two heads of OpenAI had no choice but to deny there was any trouble in paradAIs: “We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day,” Altman and Friar said in a joint statement. Any suggestion that the pair are divided or pulling back on securing new computing resources is “ridiculous,” they said. 

Well, of course they would: the alternative would be an immediate collapse of OpenAI's valuation as revenue growth suddenly collapses, and takes the entire AI bubble with it.

Still, with OpenAI having difficulty to generate even 2% of its spending commitments in the form of revenue (ignoring that the company will likely never be profitable), denials may be all OpenAI has left. 

For years, Altman has sought to lock up as much data-center capacity as possible, arguing that computing shortages were the biggest constraint to OpenAI’s growth. As noted above, Sam went on a "dealmaking" spree last year that put OpenAI on the hook for some $1.5 trillion in future spending commitments, and tied much of the tech sector’s success to OpenAI’s.

In other words, if OpenAI goes down, it will take the entire AI sector with it. And since AI is now 40% of the S&P500... you get the picture (if you don't, reread the comments above from Goldman's Delta One head).

Not that anyone can blame Sam for thinking he would get away with it: for a long time, he did. His “buy everything” computing strategy was buoyed by ChatGPT’s seemingly invincible success, and had the support of both Friar and the board. But the chatbot’s growth slowed toward the end of last year, especially as Claude starting stealing clients, sowing fresh doubt among company leaders about the approach.

What followed next was the first domino to fall: OpenAI missed an internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year, according to people familiar with the goals. The company still hasn’t announced that milestone, unnerving some investors the WSJ reports. It also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT as well after Google’s Gemini saw massive growth late last year and ate into OpenAI’s market share. Worst of all, for the industry where there are still almost no switching costs, the company has also struggled with defection rates among subscribers, according to WSJ sources.

Things went from bad to worse in 2026 when OpenAI missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier this year after losing ground to Anthropic in the coding and enterprise markets, people familiar with its finances said.

OpenAI recently raised $122 billion in what was the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, putting it on more solid financial footing. But to get there, the company signed up for so much computing power that it expects to burn through that amount in the next three years, and that's assuming that it meets ambitious revenue targets. Some of the funding is also conditional and depends on specific agreements with partners (and may explain why Microsoft, which knows the company's business best of all, dramatically revised its agreement with OpenAI earlier today).  

To streamline costs, OpenAi recently cut non-core projects such as its video-generation app Sora. OpenAI also recently released GPT-5.5, a powerful model that topped a number of industry benchmarks. Then again, in an industry where the frontier jumps every 2-3 months, the latest model will be obsolete by July. 

Meanwhile, a blowback from within the user base is emerging: a number of AI companies including Anthropic have faced a capacity crunch for computing in recent weeks, leading to price increases for access to AI processors, outages and rationing. The challenges have rankled power users of AI products, especially coders who have grown frustrated when AI systems have been unable to finish tasks in a way they had come to expect from past use.

In a recent memo to investors, OpenAI said that it has been able to secure more computing capacity than Anthropic, giving it an advantage in reaching users. The memo, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, also addressed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s veiled criticism of OpenAI at a recent business conference, when he said some companies had pulled “the risk dial too far” on data-center spending. 

“In hindsight, that caution looks less like discipline and more like underestimating how fast demand would arrive,” the OpenAI memo said. 

It would be extremely ironic is Anthropic's "caution" proves correct in the end, and OpenAI is forced to cancel its contracts as it simply does not have the money (but not before Masa Son implodes).

In recent months, Friar has also expressed reservations about OpenAI’s plans to go public by the end of this year, according to people familiar with the matter.  She has emphasized to executives and board directors the need for OpenAI to improve its internal controls, cautioning that the company isn’t yet ready to meet the rigorous reporting standards required of a public company. Altman, who has favored a more aggressive timeline for an IPO.

OpenAI has to work through a slate of other issues ahead of a public listing. The company is currently experiencing a leadership vacuum after its second-in-command, Fidji Simo, unexpectedly took medical leave earlier this month.

But the knockout blow for OpenAi could, ironically, come from the person who funded the company in the first place back when it was still an "Open" non-profit. Court proceedings began today in a lawsuit by Elon Musk in which he is seeking to oust Altman and unwind OpenAI’s conversion into a for-profit company. Should Musk prevail, OpenAI may or may not survive, but Sam Altman will have no choice but to move on to his next scam. 

Scam Altman has a incredible track record for being a con artist I don't think anyone has a "former ally turned enemy" list this big with directly with people he worked with

A massive new 18-month investigation dropped, revealing the full list of people who worked directly with… pic.twitter.com/1aOkUEsgkq

— X Freeze (@XFreeze) April 27, 2026 Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:25

US Home Prices Dipped In February For First Time Since June 2025

For the first time since June 2025, US home prices (in the largest 20 cities) fell in February (by 0.05% MoM) according to the latest (admittedly lagging and smoothed) Case-Shiller data.

The decline comes after prices surged into the turn of year and has now dragged the YoY gain in prices down to just +0.9% - the weakest since July 2023. 

The trend is clear across almost every city...

Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, one could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...

But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:25

Trump, First Lady Demand Jimmy Kimmel Be Fired Over 'Widow' Joke Days Before Assassination Attempt

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump sharply escalated their long-running feud with late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel on Monday, publicly demanding that the ABC host be immediately fired by Disney and the network over a joke he made days before a shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

The controversy centers on a comedic monologue Kimmel delivered on his April 23 episode of Jimmy Kimmel Live!, in which he staged an "alternative" version of the annual dinner roast. 

"Look at Melania, so beautiful. Mrs. Trump, you have a glow like an expectant widow." Kimmel also performed a Jeffrey Epstein-style impression introducing "Donald" and "Melania" and referenced a deleted Trump meme depicting the president as Jesus.

'AN EXPECTENT
WIDOW'
Jimmy Kimmel bashed for bad-taste joke about Melania becoming widow' before shooting pic.twitter.com/ybuMaii3Y7

— Simo Saadi (@Simo7809957085) April 27, 2026

As the Epoch Times notes further, the Trumps took serious offense.

“Kimmel’s hateful and violent rhetoric is intended to divide our country. His monologue about my family isn’t comedy—his words are corrosive and deepens the political sickness within America,” Melania wrote on Monday in a post on X.

“People like Kimmel shouldn’t have the opportunity to enter our homes each evening to spread hate.”

Kimmel’s hateful and violent rhetoric is intended to divide our country. His monologue about my family isn’t comedy- his words are corrosive and deepens the political sickness within America.

People like Kimmel shouldn’t have the opportunity to enter our homes each evening to…

— First Lady Melania Trump (@FLOTUS) April 27, 2026

Video footage of the incident at the Washington Hilton ballroom, where the dinner was being held, showed Melania Trump sitting next to the president and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. The first lady looked visibly shocked at one point and began to move off stage before she and Trump were whisked to safety by Secret Service agents.

A White House official confirmed to The Epoch Times that Cole Allen was arrested in connection with the shooting. The official said Allen allegedly wrote a manifesto and sent it to members of his family, and that he traveled from California to Washington before the shooting.

On Sunday, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Allen was likely targeting Trump and members of his administration before he was tackled by security officials outside the dinner.

While Trump praised the Secret Service during a “60 Minutes” interview on Sunday evening, a senior White House official told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement on Monday that chief of staff Susie Wiles will convene a meeting to review security protocols with administration officials.

It’s not the first time Kimmel has drawn criticism from the Trump administration. In September 2025, his show was taken off the air for several days after comments he made about conservative activist Charlie Kirk following his assassination. At the time, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr said Kimmel may have made misleading comments.

When he returned to his show, Kimmel said, “It was never my intention to make light of a murder of a young man. I don’t think there’s anything funny about it.”

Responding to the controversy, Trump criticized ABC for allowing Kimmel back on the air in a Truth Social post, calling the host “in jeopardy” and saying the network is “not funny.”

Trump told Fox News on Sunday morning that his wife was unharmed and is “doing great” after the shooting incident. A lone Secret Service agent was shot in the chest but was protected by a bulletproof vest, Trump has said.

ABC, which is owned by Disney, did not immediately respond to an Epoch Times request for comment. Kimmel and ABC have not issued any public comments in response to Melania Trump’s post.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:10

First Of Many? UAE Exits OPEC As Iran Chaos Triggers Nationalistic Realignment Among Producers

Just days after the UAE publicly signaled liquidity concerns by requesting swap lines from the Federal Reserve to ease pressures on the country's banks, major Gulf oil producer, the UAE, has decided to exit the oil cartel - an unexpected development that crossed Bloomberg headlines on Tuesday morning around 0822 ET.

OPEC finished https://t.co/RtxJdZQeQh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

The official website of the Emirates News Agency (WAM) broke the story, stating that the UAE has decided to exit OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1, in line with the country's long-term strategic and economic plan.

The move would represent a major rupture within OPEC, with direct implications for the remaining 11 members: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

Yes it was https://t.co/SqwLJlxmDV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

WAM said the decision reflects the "evolution of sector policies to enhance flexibility in responding to market dynamics, while continuing to contribute to market stability in a thoughtful and responsible manner."

OPEC was founded in Baghdad in September 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Its original purpose was to give oil-producing states more control over pricing and production after Western oil majors dominated global crude markets.

Important to note: UAE ranks among the top producers in OPEC (~4.05 million bpd), making it a major player with growing capacity ambitions (targeting 5 million bpd by 2027).

WTI futures fell on the news but have since rebounded.

UAE credit risk has soared since the start of the war...

UBS analyst Matthew Cowley responded to the developing, telling clients: "This would weaken OPEC's ability to defend price floors, especially during economic slowdowns." 

UAE's full statement:

Abu Dhabi, April 28 / WAM / The United Arab Emirates announced today its decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026.

This decision is in line with the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and the development of its energy sector, including accelerating investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to its role as a responsible and reliable producer that looks to the future of global energy markets.

This decision came after a thorough review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity, and in view of what the national interest requires and the state’s commitment to contribute effectively to meeting the urgent needs of the market, while geopolitical fluctuations continue in the near term through the disturbances in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which affect supply dynamics, as the basic trends indicate continued growth in global energy demand in the medium and long term.

The stability of the global energy system depends on the availability of flexible, reliable and affordable supplies, and the UAE has invested to meet the changing demands efficiently and responsibly, prioritizing supply stability, cost, and sustainability.

This decision comes after decades of constructive cooperation, as the UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, and its membership continued after the establishment of the United Arab Emirates in 1971. During this period, the country played an active role in supporting the stability of the global oil market and promoting dialogue between producing countries.

The decision affirms the evolution of sector policies to enhance flexibility in responding to market dynamics, while continuing to contribute to market stability in a thoughtful and responsible manner.

The UAE is a reliable, cost-competitive, and low-carbon-intensity oil producer globally, contributing to global growth and emissions reduction.

After leaving OPEC, the UAE will continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions.

With a large and competitive resource base, the UAE will continue to work with partners to develop resources, supporting economic growth and diversification.

It is worth noting that this decision does not change the UAE’s commitment to the stability of global markets or its approach based on cooperation with producers and consumers, but rather enhances its ability to respond to changing market demands.

The UAE affirms its appreciation for the efforts of both OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, as the country’s presence in the organization has made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, it is now time to focus efforts on what the UAE’s national interest requires, its commitment to its investment and importing partners, and the needs of the market, and this is what it will focus on in the future.

The UAE also affirms its continued commitment to responsible production policies and a focus on market stability, taking into account global supply and demand.

The state will continue to invest across the energy sector value chain, including oil and gas, renewable energy and low-carbon solutions, to support resilience and long-term transformation of the energy system.

The UAE values more than five decades of cooperation with partners, while continuing its active

Abu Dhabi's departure weakens OPEC's cohesion, and the oil cartel's fate now remains uncertain.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 08:40

Futures Tumble On AI Spending Fears As Brent Hits 2 Week High

US equity futures are lower, dragged by tech, following a report that OpenAI missed revenue and user targets and there growing internal pushback against Sam Altman's notorious aggressive spending (the company has $1.5 trillion in commitment it won't be able to meet), which is hitting semiconductors and the broader supply chain. AS of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.2% as concerns resurfaced over whether the vast amounts of investment in artificial intelligence will pay off. In pre market trading, Semis and Mag7 are under pressure. Defensives are leading Cyclicals ex-Energy. SoftBank, a key backer of ChatGPT’s owner, plunged 9.9% in Tokyo. US-based OpenAI partners including Oracle and CoreWeave fell in premarket trading. Nvidia was poised to drop 2.9% from a record high. Meanwhile, Brent rose above $111 a barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz still shut. Bond yields are 2-4bps higher as the yield curve flattens and USD appreciates, following the price of oil. Commodities continue to be led by Energy with WTI rising above $100/bbl after Trump signaled he was unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict which included a proposed a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while leaving questions about its nuclear program for later negotiations. There is material weakness in precious metals with silver’s underperformance possibly tied to Tech weakness. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP, home price data, regional Fed activity indicators, and Consumer Confidence (though spending has de-coupled from sentiment). US economic data calendar slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), February FHFA house price index, S&P CS home prices (9am), April Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Conference Board consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am)

In premarket trading, OpenAI partners such as CoreWeave (CRWV -7%) and Oracle (ORCL -7%) are falling after the Wall Street Journal reported that the AI startup recently failed to meet targets for sales and new users, reviving worries about spending ahead of tech earnings. Stocks linked to the buildout of AI infrastructure — from computing providers to the makers of semiconductors and power equipment used in data centers — are also down after the Wall Street Journal report on OpenAI. 

• Magnificent Seven stocks are also mostly lower: Nvidia falls 2% on the OpenAI report (Apple +0.4%, Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.9%, Meta Platforms -0.8%, Microsoft -1.2%, Tesla -1.2%)
• Celestica (CLS) falls 13% after the maker of electronic components reported first-quarter results that featured smaller upside to expectations than in recent quarters. While it raised its full-year forecast, analysts said the company had been facing high expectations.
• Dynatrace (DT) gains 4% on a report that Starboard Value LP took a stake and is pushing the company to better capitalize on the shift to artificial intelligence.
• Erasca (ERAS) slides 40% after the biotech said one patient withdrew from the trial after a severe treatment-related adverse event and later died, according to a filing.
• General Motors (GM) rises 4% after raising its profit outlook for the year by $500 million, saying its pickups and sport utility vehicles continue to sell even as gasoline prices soar due to the war in Iran.
• LendingClub (LC) rises 9% after the online lender’s first-quarter revenue and net interest income beat the average analyst estimate.
• Nucor (NUE) rises 2% after the steelmaker reported first-quarter earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate as steel shipments were stronger than expected.
• Rambus (RMBS) plunges 17% after the semiconductor device manufacturer reported first-quarter results that were largely in line with expectations, which analysts said was a disappointment in the wake of recent strength in the stock.
• Sanmina (SANM) rises 7% after the electronics contract manufacturing services company’s second-quarter results beat expectations and it gave a full-year outlook that is seen as positive.
• Solaris Energy (SEI) rallies 5% after the firm’s first-quarter Ebitda beat the average analyst estimate.
• Spotify Technology falls 11% after reporting results that underwhelmed Wall Street, forecasting operating income in the current quarter that missed analysts’ estimates.
• UPS (UPS) falls 3% after the courier left financial guidance unchanged. Its profit beat expectations in the first quarter.

In other corporate news, Barclays traders struggled to capitalize on a volatile quarter with returns falling short of their US rivals. Eneos is said to be the last remaining bidder for some of Chevron’s Asian assets in a deal that might be valued at more than $2 billion. Google and the Department of Defense signed a deal allowing the Pentagon to use Google’s AI models on classified work, the Information reported. 

Futures are sharply lower after closing at a new all time high yesterday. The market’s hottest theme took a knock from a report that OpenAI failed to meet internal targets, fueling internal concerns that it may struggle to support its spending on AI infrastructure, the WSJ reported. OpenAI partners including Oracle, CoreWeave and AMD fell in premarket trading, while SoftBank tumbled 10% in Japan. Resurgent optimism about AI had prompted the market's charge as the rest of the market lagged due to rising oil prices. Wednesday’s earnings from four hyperscalers will offer the rally another test. 

“The single most important line item isn’t revenue or margins; it’s capex,” said Amanda Lyons, IT-sector lead and head of research at Energy Group Capital. “Any hint of slowing spend would be taken negatively for the ecosystem, but a sharp step-up would likely raise questions around returns.”

The WSJ report is reviving worries about how fast companies can monetize their huge AI spending (while still investing enough to compete), leaving Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta and Microsoft with a delicate message to convey tomorrow. For context, OpenAI revealed in March that it was generating $2 billion in revenue per month, while Bloomberg has reported that Anthropic is on track for annual revenue of almost $20 billion.

“The rising oil price is starting to feature in macro data,” said Anna Macdonald at Hargreaves Lansdown. “The longer the crisis rolls on, the more severe the impacts will be, and the more we expect it will dominate investor attention.”

The AI theme is playing out in other ways too. Battery maker CATL raised $5 billion after a Hong Kong share placement amid surging demand for data center energy storage. The shares have soared 139% since their debut. And Arizona’s data-center building boom is coming up against community opposition and dwindling water availability.

Ahead of this week’s policy meetings by the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England, traders expect officials to keep rates on hold. The outlook gets cloudier for subsequent meetings, with everything hinging on the duration of the Middle East war. Money markets see the ECB and BOE hiking as soon as June, while odds are for the Fed to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year.

Brent advanced for a seventh straight day. The White House said President Donald Trump will address a proposal from Iran to resume oil flows through Hormuz “very soon.” The dollar rose alongside global bond yields. WTI rose above $100 as tankers laden with Iranian oil idle just shy of the US blockade line. There’s not much sign of progress toward ending the war, with Trump planning to address the matter “very soon.” The president has told his advisers he’s not satisfied with Iran’s latest suggestions, the NYT reported, citing people briefed on the discussions. 

European stocks have swung to session lows, with Stoxx 600 down 0.6%. European stocks swing between gains and losses on a busy earnings day, with healthcare weighing after Novartis missed profit estimates and reported its first sales decline in almost two years. The energy subindex is the best-performing sector as Brent rose above $110 again. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• SIG Group shares gain as much as 12%, the most since 2020, as the Swiss maker of carton packaging posted stronger-than-expected profits, putting it on track to recover from a challenging year
• BP shares rise as much as 3.3% after 1Q profit beat analyst estimates. Analysts at RBC Capital note outstanding downstream and trading results
• Nexans shares rise as much as 9.6% and on course to close at a new all-time high, after the cable and electrification specialist bolstered its position in the US through the acquisition of Republic Wire
• AAK gains as much as 8.6%, the most since July, after the Swedish maker of vegetable oils and fats reported earnings. DNB Carnegie says the print is “strong on all points” with volumes growing and “good” free cash flows
• Zealand Pharma gains as much as 7.2% after the Danish drug developer’s partner Boehringer Ingelheim said patients using its experimental obesity shot — called survodutide — experienced weight loss above 16% in a late-stage trial
• Nordic Semiconductor gains as much as 9.1% after the Norwegian chipmaker reported its latest earnings. Analyst sees a strong report from the company, with a broadening out of revenue trends and strong 2Q guidance
• Novartis shares fall as much as 5.1%, the most in more than a year, after the Swiss drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected core operating profit for the first quarter, as well as a drop in revenue
• Barclays declines as much as 4.3% after the British lender booked an extra £105m provision for missold car loans and announced an impairment of roughly £200m for a “single name” charge said to be tied to the UK property lender Market Financial Solutions
• Air Liquide fallsas much as 5.2% with analysts saying a miss in the French chemicals firm’s Large Industries division isappoints especially in light of hopes that the company could benefit from supply chain disruption in the Middle East
• Valmet shares fall as much as 9.1%, to the lowest in more than a year, after first-quarter orders and adjusted Ebita undershot expectations, and the Finnish machinery supplier announced plans for temporary layoffs to save costs
• Telenor shares fall as much as 10%, the most since 2020, after the telecom reduced Ebitda growth targets for its core Nordic markets and on the group level. The move comes less than three months since the guidance was first issued
• Sweco shares drop as much as 8.8%, hitting their lowest level since May 2024, after the architecture and engineering consultancy reported sales and earnings that fell short of consensus expectations
• Wartsila falls as much as 6.2%, the most since March 3, after the Finnish marine and energy industrial equipment maker reported its latest earnings. Analysts say the report, while a beat, is not necessarily reassuring

Earlier, Asian stocks traded lower but continued to hold near a February peak as traders awaited earnings from key companies in the global technology sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fluctuated before falling as much as 0.4%, dragged by information technology firms.  Financials were among the biggest boosts. Key gauges declined in Hong Kong, Australia and India while South Korean equities gained. The Topix gauge closed higher after Bank of Japan held interest rates as expected. Among the region’s tech firms that rely on outlays from the global hyperscalers, Advantest saw its stock slide Tuesday on a weak outlook and an indication of capacity constraints. Its fellow Japanese chip-equipment maker Tokyo Electron is among Asian firms reporting later this week, along with Chinese EV maker BYD.

Of the 150 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 13% have missed.  Earnings revisions for 2026, measured by Citigroup’s Earnings Revisions Index, have been improving since the start of the month. Companies have been holding or lifting guidance even as executives repeatedly flag an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, according to JPMorgan strategists.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up by 0.2% and reversing an earlier decline against the yen sparked by the Bank of Japan holding rates in a split decision.

In rates, bond markets are under pressure as oil prices rise, with Brent topping $111 to increase inflationary concerns. Treasury front-end yields are higher by 2bp-3bp, underperforming long end as Fed-dated swaps price in less easing; 10-year is 2bp higher near 4.36%, just off session high reached during London morning, outperforming German and UK counterparts by about 1bp-2bp. European bonds jolted by a jump in ECB CPI inflation expectations in March, though the initial drop on that has eased. German two-year yields up five basis points as traders increase ECB rate-hike bets and a similar move for two-year gilts, but declines have pared at the long-end in Europe and the UK.  US session includes 7-year note auction at 1pm, the week’s third and final coupon auction following small tails for Monday’s 2- and 5-year note sales.

BlackRock Investment Institute said the war and elevated inflation will keep government bond yields higher for longer. But companies don’t seem to be feeling the hit yet. The fallout from the conflict, which broke out two-thirds of the way through the quarter, “has barely been visible,” says Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers, while current earnings forecasts look “very, very stretched.”

In commodities, June WTI crude futures are up almost 5%, rising above $101 and at session highs as blockades of the Strait of Hormuz curtail supply. Gold prices sinking, down by around $75 and testing $4,600/oz.

US economic data calendar slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), February FHFA house price index, S&P CS home prices (9am), April Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Conference Board consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5% 
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.37%
• VIX +0.2 points at 18.26
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1198.04
• euro -0.2% at $1.1697
• WTI crude +4.8% at $101 barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump signaled he was unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict after Tehran proposed a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while leaving questions about its nuclear program for later negotiations. CNN
• OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it will be able to support its massive spending on data centers. WSJ
• China’s top leadership on Tuesday pledged to take more “forceful” measures to strengthen energy security and shore up business confidence, as the country faces economic headwinds from the protracted US – Iran standoff in the ME. Nikkei
• The BoJ kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signaling policymakers' concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict. The central bank also sharply revised up its price forecasts and ‌stressed vigilance to the risk of an inflation overshoot, signaling a strong chance of a rate hike in coming months. RTRS
• Investors are reverting to a pre-war playbook of betting Asian stocks will outpace US peers due to the region’s central role in the AI boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 14% surge so far this month has outpaced the S&P 500’s 9.9% gain. BBG
• ECB survey reveals a spike in inflation expectations as consumers react to fallout from the Iran war. Additionally, the survey revealed a larger than expected tightening of credit standards due to higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. ECB
• Keir Starmer faces a high-stakes vote today on whether to begin an investigation into his assurances to Parliament that due process was followed in Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador. BBG
• Wall Street dealers’ Treasury holdings have jumped to the highest level since the global financial crisis as the Trump administration’s cut to regulation nudges banks back into the $31tn debt market. FT
• Foreign-based automakers have warned the Trump administration that they are looking at pulling their cheapest car models out of the U.S. market if the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement isn’t renewed or is watered down, according to people familiar with the discussions. WSJ
• Thus far in 2026, there have been 25 IPOs greater than $25 million in value, totaling $14 billion in gross proceeds. This represents a nearly 80% increase in both the number and value of IPOs relative to this time last year. Roughly 40% of this year's IPOs have been Industrials companies compared with the historical annual average of 10% since 1995. In contrast, there have been no IPOs YTD in the Information Technology sector despite the sector representing 25% of IPOs since 1995: GS

Iran News

• US President Trump has told advisers he is not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, NYT reported; a US official said that accepting it [the Iran proposal] could appear to deny Trump a victory. The proposal also called on the United States to end its naval blockade, but would have set aside questions about what to do with Iran’s nuclear program. A US official also said that accepting it [the Iran proposal] could appear to deny Trump a victory. US officials say Iran’s leadership has not authorised its negotiators to make concessions on the nuclear deal, frustrating any attempts to forge a compromise or peace agreement. At the heart of the debate over whether to accept the Iranian proposal were discussions in the Trump administration about the issue of economic leverage and what further American military operations would be needed to get Tehran to make significant concessions in negotiations. Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for two more months would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran’s energy industry. "Without a resumption of military action, there is little reason to think the Iranian position will shift.".
• US President Trump is reportedly sceptical of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal, WSJ reported citing sources; said White House will continue to negotiate with Iran; White House expected to provide its response and counterproposals in the coming days. President Trump and his national security team are sceptical of Iran’s offer to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for tabling discussions on its nuclear work, according to US officials. Trump discussed the offer with aides on Monday morning, expressing doubts about Iran’s good faith and its willingness to meet his key demand of ending nuclear enrichment and committing never to develop a nuclear weapon. The US plans to continue negotiations with Iran, with the White House expected to provide its response and counterproposals in the coming days. White House spokeswoman stated that the US will not negotiate through the press and that anything not announced by President Trump or the White House should be considered speculation.
• US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem, and that the first part of any potential agreement will focus on opening the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions or fees, CNN reported, citing sources. The US and Iran may not have met for a second round of talks in Pakistan, but the two sides are not as far apart as they seem, according to sources familiar with the mediation process. Intense diplomacy continues behind the scenes, the sources say, and ongoing talks are centred around a staged process in which the first part of a potential deal would focus on returning to the status quo before the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions or tolls. The issue of Iran’s nuclear program – which both the US and Israel cited as their casus belli – would be addressed later. US President Donald Trump has previously said that any deal would require Iran to forfeit its supply of near bomb-grade uranium and give up enrichment, demands Iran has steadfastly refused to accept. According to the sources, mediators are applying pressure on both sides to reach an agreement, with the next few days being especially crucial. Hanging over it all is the chance that the US may decide to disengage and return to war.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly told US President Trump the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is fragile, N12 reported citing sources. Netanyahu told Trump that he believes that the strategy he has chosen is correct for now, but that it can only succeed if there is no compromise with the Iranians regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and the US see eye to eye on the Iranian issue. n discussions in Israel, the Iranian difficulty in pumping oil from the wells is raised, which puts them in great distress.
• "Netanyahu informed his ministers that there is no more he can do in Lebanon and this is what Washington wants", Al Jazeera reported citing an Israeli Radio source.
• Pakistan Defence Minister said "our earnest efforts to end the conflict, impacting the entire region and beyond, are ongoing, and we remain hopeful of achieving a positive outcome", reported Anas Mallick.
• Iran’s Deputy Defence Minister Talaei-Nik said Tehran is ready to share its defensive weapons capabilities with members of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
• "Kuwaiti News Agency: The Gulf Cooperation Council holds an extraordinary summit in Jeddah", Sky News Arabia reported.
• "Iran’s Foreign Minister is NOT returning to Pakistan following his Russia visit", journalist Mallick reported; "team is currently in consultation mode and will return when there to Islamabad, soon, when they think there is headway in talks.".
• reported of Israeli airstrikes in the south of Lebanon, Al Jazeera reported.
• US President Trump is unlikely to accept Iran's plan, according to CNN citing sources; reopening the strait without resolving the nuclear issues could remove a key piece of US leverage.
• "Guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) enforces the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports against M/T Stream after it attempted to sail to an Iranian port, April 26", US CENTCOM said.
• US President Trump is unhappy with the Iranian proposal, according to a US official.
• Taiwanese Defense Ministry said that Taiwan has spotted two Chinese warships operating in waters near the Penghu Islands and has sent its own naval and air forces to keep watch.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the ceasefire in Iran is unique because Israel is at war with Hezbollah, not Lebanon.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the Iran offer is better than we thought. Indications that Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei is alive. Direct communications with Iran are very rare and discreet. Level of sanctions and pressure on Iran is extraordinary. Hopes the rest of the world will sanction Iran.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded broadly weaker, as risk sentiment weakened amid reports that US President Trump is unlikely to agree to Iran’s proposal. ASX 200 started the session on the backfoot, and held onto its earlier losses. Sectors were broadly in the red, as Utilities underperformed while Energy was supported by higher crude prices. Nikkei 225 opened flat but fell lower, a move which was later exacerbated after the hawkish hold by the BoJ. The Bank upgraded inflation outlook and downgraded growth, with FY27 growth only modestly cut. The index fell back towards the 60,000 handle. For single stock stories, DENSO reported earning in which all metrics rose annually, but the Co. cut its FY net and op. profit guidance while stating its withdrawal of the proposal of Rohn acquisition. KOSPI was the outperformer, with LG Electronics among those that lifted the index after reports that the Co.’s CEO is to meet Nvidia CEO Huang’s daughter to discuss strategic cooperation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. followed the broadly negative bias. CATL’s HK shares were under pressure after the Co.’s announcement of a plan to raise over HKD 39bln in private share placement to step up expansion in its renewables business.

Top Asian News

• China State owned refiners have begun applying for government permits that would allow them to resume fuel exports in May, Bloomberg reported.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) spent most of the European morning a touch lower after several geopolitical updates spurred energy benchmarks higher on the day. On the geopolitical front this morning, journalist Mallick said Iran’s Foreign Minister was not returning to Pakistan following his Russia visit - a post which soured the risk tone. European sectors opened mixed, and continue this way. Energy tops the pile amid BP's (+3.3%) stellar Q1 results, while Healthcare sits at the bottom amid losses in the sector's second-largest constituent Novartis (-2.6%), alongside Bayer (-2.7%). The former reported disappointing earnings, whilst the latter is hit on reports that the US Supreme Court is split over Bayer's fight against Roundup lawsuits.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: 1yr CPI expectations 4% (exp. 2.8%, prev. 2.5%), 3yr CPI expectations 3.0% (exp. 2.6%, prev. 2.5%).

Trade/Tariffs

• Indonesia's Economy Minister said they are going to cut the import duty for naphtha to 0%.

FX

• FX shows a risk-off bias with all G10 currencies lower against the Buck.
• DXY is back above its 100 & 200 DMAs around 98.50, after falling below those levels on Monday. The buck saw weakness after the BoJ announcement, where the vote split was more hawkish than expected at 6-3. However, following the meeting, the USD moved higher in tandem with crude benchmarks after news that Iran’s Foreign Minister was not returning to Pakistan following his visit to Russia.
• In addition to this, Ueda at the BoJ presser failed to support bets for a June hike, with the initial move seen on the 6-3 vote split paring to bring USD/JPY to above 159.50, to pre-announcement levels (ventured as low as 158.96). MUFG said the BoJ meeting was unlikely to trigger a sustained reversal of the bearish JPY trend that has been in place since the Middle East conflict started in late February
• Elsewhere, NOK fares the best against the USD amid firmer oil prices. NOK/SEK, +0.4%, continues to edge towards the 1.00 mark not seen since November 2024, with a session high of 99.63.
• GBP is one of the worst performers in the G10FX space, with UK Political developments in the spotlight ahead of a debate & vote on whether PM Starmer should be referred to the Privileges Committee (Full analysis on the headline feed at 09:05 BST) GBP/USD traders lower by 0.3% and breached the 1.35 mark, while EUR/GBP has been creeping higher throughout the session but remains flat on the day.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said volatility in crude is affecting FX, ready to take decisive action; will closely coordinate with the US and will act when necessary; standing by around the clock.

Fixed Income

• Another bearish start for fixed income as energy climbs, and with some influence from a hawkish hold by the BoJ. (Details on geopols can be found in the commodities section below).
• Most recently, the ECB SCE saw an increase in inflation expectations for the next 12 months, and for three years ahead, both saw a significant increase to 4.0% (prev. 2.5%) and 3.0% (prev. 2.5%), respectively. By way of comparison, the March baseline HICP peak was 2.6% in 2026, the adverse 3.5% for the same period, while the severe peaked at 4.8% in 2027. As such, 12-month expectations are hotter than all but the severe scenario, a point that adds a measure of hawkishness ahead of Thursday's ECB. Though this view is somewhat offset by the tightening of credit conditions and weaker loan demand evidenced in the BLS, a survey that was released alongside the CSE.
• Amidst all this, Bunds down to a 124.87 base with a downside of nearly 50 ticks. The low was printed just after the ECB SCE release.
• USTs down to a 110-26 base into a session that is likely to once again be dominated by geopolitics, earnings and looking ahead to the FOMC on Wednesday. We do get supply, 2yr FRN and a 7yr note offered, following a strong 2yr and mixed 5yr on Monday.
• JGBs gapped lower on the resumption after the BoJ announcement, before then filling the move in short order. To recap, the BoJ was a hawkish-hold with three dissenters in favour of a hike, citing price concerns. Forecasts showed an increased inflation view, while the growth view was cut. Thereafter, Ueda was non-committal regarding the timing of the next hike, and seemingly attempted to temper expectations around June, commentary that had little JGBs impact but spurred notable JPY moves.
• Gilts gapped lower by 21 ticks, acknowledging the above, and have since fallen another 29 to an 86.51 trough. If the move continues, we look to 86.00 before 85.91 from the last week of March. Gilts underperform marginally, awaiting the start of the debate and then vote on whether UK PM Starmer should be referred to the Privileges Committee or not; full primer available at 09:05BST.

Commodities

• Crude prices are once again on a stronger footing this morning, with a number of sentiment-hitting headlines helping to lift demand for energy. In brief, CNN reported that President Trump is not satisfied with the Iranian proposal, adding that he is unlikely to accept it. But the piece did suggest that the US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem. Thereafter, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister would not return to Pakistan following his visit to Russia, adding that he would only head back to the region if his team thinks there is “headway in talks”. This helped to spur some strength in both WTI and Brent, by around a USD 1/bbl.
• As it stands, WTI holds at the upper end of a USD 96.24-99.66/bbl range, whilst Brent sits at the upper end of a USD 107.81-111.86/bbl range.
• Sticking with geopols, but over in Europe, Ukraine said that it had struck Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery. It is considered amongst the top 10 largest in the country, with a capacity of 240k BPD. Elsewhere, on the supply front, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia may cut its June OSP to Asia, citing easing demand.
• Spot gold is lower this morning, by around a percent, and currently resides towards the lower end of a USD 4,614-4,701/oz range. Ultimately, spot gold has been pressured throughout the Iranian conflict, given the inflationary implications – a theme which appears to have played out today; the mild strength in USD this morning is also a factor.
• Base metals also hold a negative bias – likely hampered by the downbeat risk tone seen during overnight trade. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,105.98-13,264/t range.
• Saudi Arabia reportedly may cut its official June crude selling prices to Asia as spot premiums eased and demand eased, Reuters reported.
• Eneos (5020 JT) is reportedly the final bidder for some of the Asian assets of Chevron (CVX).
• ADNOC has told some oil buyers to pick up Gulf supply outside the Strait of Hormuz, as producers look to diversify to other routes and bring their oil to the market, Bloomberg reported. ADNOC has told customers of the availability of cargoes for loading off Fujairah.
• ADNOC is planning to invest tens of billions of dollars to build a natural gas business in the US to diversify its commodity exposure and the XRG business.
• Ukrainian drones attack Russia's Tuapse oil refinery, causing a fire, according to authorities.
• China allows the purchases of banned BHP (BHP AT) portside cargoes following a deal with the Co., according to sources.
• Venezuela is to raise crude shipments to 1.06mln bpd and fuel sales to 134k by year-end, PDVSA vice president said.

Central Banks

• BoJ Governor Ueda said there are possibilities of a rate hike if either upward risks to prices emerge or downside risks to the economy are limited. By June, probably no big upward pressure appears in consumer price data. It is possible to decide before confirming upward price pressure in price data. Communicating closely with government on monetary policy. When asked if a rate hike is not possible while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the decision would depend on inflation risks and the economy beyond that. Not thinking there is a high likelihood of the current situation resembling the early 1970s. If the trend inflation overshoots by 2% by a big margin, then strong tightening could be required. In the process of adjusting rates towards neutral, all other conditions being equal. Japan's exposure to private credit is not big; it requires caution, given transparency in the sector is low. Unless significant downside pressure to the economy, a rate hike is possible. Rate hike decision and QT adjustment will be separate. Inflation upward risk could be a reason for raising rates, but not the only reason. Can not say how many months it would take to gauge timing of next rate hike, will look to see if underlying inflation has a clear upward risks. Need to be mindful of further economic slowdown depending on supply shock levels; Japan economy has some degree of endurance.
• BoJ maintains its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, as expected; vote split 6-3 to hold (exp. near-unanimous); Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura voted to hike by 25bps to 1.0%.
• BoJ Outlook Report: Real GDP: Fiscal 2026 median forecast 0.5% (prev. 1.0%). Fiscal 2027 median forecast 0.7% (prev. 0.8%). Fiscal 2028 median forecast 0.8%. Core CPI. Fiscal 2026 median forecast 2.8% (prev. 1.9%). Fiscal 2027 median forecast 2.3% (prev. 2.0%). Fiscal 2028 median forecast 2.0%. Dissenters (voted for 25bps hike).
• BoJ’s Takata: price stability target had been more or less achieved and that risks to prices in Japan were already skewed to the upside due to the second-round effects of price rises stemming from overseas developments.
• BoJ’s Tamura: Considering that, with risks to prices becoming significantly skewed to the upside, the bank should set the policy interest rate as close to the neutral rate as possible.
• BoJ's Nakagawa: Risks to prices skewed to the upside under accommodative financial conditions. Monetary policy Will scrutinise timing, pace of policy adjustment with a close eye on economic and price impact from the Middle East developments.
• Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi will attend the BoJ policy meeting, hopes the BoJ communicates and coordinate policy closely with the government and work towards sustainably achieving a 2% inflation target.
• ECB BLS: Banks tightened credit standards across all loan categories, driven by higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. Banks tightened credit standards across all loan categories, driven by higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. Banks expect to also tighten credit standards in the second quarter, influenced by geopolitical tensions, energy developments, and higher funding costs. Loan demand from firms and households expected to decrease, resulting from reduced financing for fixed investments, lower consumer confidence, and decreased spending on durables. Nearly half of euro area banks use securitisation to grant new loans, manage credit risk and enhance liquidity and funding, relying on non-bank financial entities to purchase securitised loans.
• PBoC guided banks to increase lending in April, according to sources.

Geopolitics

• Ukrainian drones attack Russia's Tuapse oil refinery, causing a fire, according to authorities.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: United States Feb FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 10:00 am: United States Apr Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 0.7, prior 0
• 10:00 am: United States Apr Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 89, prior 91.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today marks 2 months since the strikes on Iran began and with that, we reach an uneasy lull in the newsflow. The Wall Street Journal have reported overnight that Trump and his officials are sceptical of Iran’s offer (that we mentioned yesterday) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while leaving nuclear negotiations for later. The WSJ report suggested that the White House is likely to offer Tehran a counterproposal in the coming days. Earlier yesterday, White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that Trump had discussed Iran’s proposal with his national security officials on Monday morning and maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the war. With no sense of resolution and the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed, this has brought Brent crude prices to their highest level in three weeks, inching +1.00% higher to $109.31/bbl overnight after a +2.75% rise yesterday.   

Overnight, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its policy rate at 0.75%, in a split vote of 6-3, marking the largest division under Kazuo Ueda’s leadership. The BoJ have unsurprisingly increased their inflation forecast and cut growth and on balance the statement leans slightly hawkish albeit with the press conference still to come.  The yen has appreciated by +0.28%, gaining strength shortly after the announcement, with 2yr JGB yields climbing a couple of basis points at the same time.

Following the BOJ’s announcement, the Nikkei (-1.01%) is retreating from its record high. In other parts of Asia, markets are mixed. The Hang Seng index is falling by -0.67% and the S&P/ASX down -0.55%. Mainland Chinese markets are broadly flat. However, the KOSPI keeps on going and is up +1.01% as I type. US equity futures are fairly flat.

Ahead of the Asia session, markets had been mostly subdued given the lack of peace talks between the US and Iran, though US equities again outperformed, with the S&P 500 (+0.12%) eking out a new record high. Indeed, with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked and the conflict now two months in as of today, it’s clear that investors are pricing in some probability of an extended stagflationary shock. There wasn’t much news to drive that, but in many respects that was precisely the problem, because markets have been latching on to any signs of peace talks, and the absence of that is raising fears they’re not going to happen. We did have the Axios report late on Sunday night US time (mentioned yesterday) suggesting that Iran had offered the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices probably didn't rise as much as they would have done to start the week without this news. But with no immediate progress, oil prices still moved higher through the day and by the close, Brent crude (+2.75%) was back up to $108.23/bbl, which is its highest closing level since the two-week ceasefire was announced in early April. Moreover, that increase was clear across the oil futures curve, with 6-month Brent futures (+1.79%) up to $88.01/bbl. So it’s clear that market expectations for lower oil prices ahead are also fading.  

Given Brent has been back above $100/bbl for nearly a week now, it was clear that wider inflation concerns were rising back up the agenda. In fact, yesterday saw the 1yr US inflation swap (+7.1bps) hit 3.45%, its highest level since August. So that’s led to growing doubt about whether the Fed can cut rates this year, with the probability of a rate cut by December down from 46% on Friday (boosted by the DoJ/Fed news late in the session) to just 35% by the close. And in turn, that meant US Treasuries sold off across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+1.9bps) up to 3.80%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.9bps) rose to 4.34%.  

Yesterday marked another day of US equities shaking off more sombre global market sentiment, with the S&P 500 (+0.12%) and the NASDAQ (+0.20%) reaching new record highs. The Mag-7 (+0.64%) outperformed ahead of the results from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta tomorrow. But it was Nvidia (+4.00%) that led the Mag-7 gains, reaching a new record market capitalization of $5.26trn. Its market cap has risen by $1.25trn over the past four weeks. Despite that Nvidia advance, the Philly semiconductor index (-1.00%) fell after a record run of 18 consecutive gains, during which the index had risen +47.2%.

The market mood had been more cautious in Europe, as the STOXX 600 (-0.30%) fell for the 5th time in the last 6 sessions, taking the index to its lowest since the two-week ceasefire announcement. The FTSE 100 (-0.56%) led the European decline. 

For European bonds it was a similar story as well, with UK gilts once again leading the underperformance. So 10yr gilt yields (+6.1bps) were up to 4.97%, and the 30yr yield (+7.7bps) hit a 7-month high of 5.66%. In part, that was driven by headlines that UK MPs were set to vote on whether PM Keir Starmer should be referred to the Privileges Committee, about whether he misled MPs on the vetting process to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador. That committee is the group of MPs that investigated former PM Boris Johnson over the partygate scandal, and although Labour have a majority in the House of Commons to prevent an inquiry, it leaves them in a tricky political spot and keeps the topic in the headlines. Moreover, there’s more happening at the Foreign Affairs Committee of MPs today, as Starmer’s former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney is set to appear at 11am London time on the Mandelson appointment.

Elsewhere in Europe, Bloomberg reported that the German finance ministry was preparing options to deal with the economic impact of the Iran war, including another suspension of the debt brake. However, as our economists write in their latest note on Germany’s reforms (link here), which kick off tomorrow, they think that for the debt brake to be suspended, the German economy would need to enter recessionary territory, which isn’t the case for now. Meanwhile, German bunds outperformed yesterday, consistent with the broader risk-off tone in markets. So the 10yr bund yield was “only” up +3.9bps to 3.03%, whereas those on 10yr OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+5.2bps) both saw a larger increase.

Looking at the day ahead, US data releases include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for April, and the FHFA’s house price index for February. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for March. Finally, earnings releases include Visa, Coca-Cola and Starbucks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 08:34

The Dollar's Funeral Keeps Getting Rescheduled

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

💰 The Dollar’s Funeral Nobody Attended

Open any finance corner of social media this week, and you will be hit with some version of the same obituary. ZeroHedge declared in December that the dollar’s death in 2026 is now a mainstream talking point, citing a WIRED piece arguing that this is the year “dollar dilution” truly accelerates. A widely circulated Dollar Collapse post this month warned that foreign demand for Treasuries is fading and that the greenback is losing its safe-haven status “in a generation.” WatcherGuru ran a headline last fall declaring rapid de-dollarization is happening right now, while YouTube personalities brandish century-long purchasing-power charts preaching gold and Bitcoin as salvation. The story writes itself: investors positioning capital today need to decide how much survives contact with the data.

To be fair, there is enough truth in the narrative to keep it alive. The DXY has retraced roughly 10% from its early-2025 peak near 103.5. The IMF’s COFER data shows the dollar’s share of global FX reserves has slipped from 73% in 2001 to around 58% today. Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 — cooler than 2024’s 1,092-tonne haul, but still the fourth-largest annual reserve build on record, roughly double the 2010–2021 average of 473 tonnes, and the 15th consecutive year of net official buying. BRICS+ now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, representing nearly half the world’s population. China has trimmed its headline Treasury holdings by more than 27% since 2022, and the bloc is actively building non-SWIFT payment infrastructure through BRICS Pay and CIPS.

Assemble those data points in the right order, and you can construct an apocalyptic narrative that plays extremely well in a three-minute video. The problem is that the dollar the narrative describes is not the dollar the flows describe. As is so often the case in markets, what “everybody knows” is precisely what is already priced in, and frequently wrong.

The Dollar’s Tape Disagrees

Start with the dollar itself. As of Tuesday, when I started writing this analysis, the DXY sits at roughly 98, essentially flat over the trailing 12 months and still well above its longer-term historical averages. For context, the index traded below 80 for most of 2011 through 2014. A dollar “near 100” is simply not consistent with the word “collapse.”

More importantly, look at what foreign investors are actually doing with their dollars. According to the latest Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, foreigners purchased a net $101 billion of long-term U.S. securities in February, following November’s blockbuster $222 billion print. Across the last five reporting months, net foreign inflows into long-term U.S. stocks and bonds totaled roughly $488 billion, a pace that rivals the post-COVID liquidity surge. If the world were truly abandoning the dollar, somebody forgot to tell the world’s money managers.

The BIS tells the same story from a different angle. The 2025 Triennial Central Bank Survey found that the US dollar accounted for 89.2% of all foreign exchange transactions in April 2025, up from 88.4% in 2022, across $9.6 trillion of daily turnover. The renminbi’s share climbed to 8.5%, a meaningful progress, but still a fraction of the dollar’s transactional footprint. Reserve share is drifting lower; actual dollar usage is not.

The China “Dumping” Illusion

If one chart carries the de-dollarization narrative more than any other, it is the headline decline in China’s reported U.S. Treasury holdings. Those holdings in “US Custody” declined from roughly $1.2 trillion at peak to about $683 billion today. That looks like a 50% purge, and it gets rolled out as Exhibit A in every “dollar is dying” thread. Pay attention to the highlight of “US Custody.”

As we detailed in our two recent pieces, “Is China Really Dumping US Treasuries?” (February 23) and “The Dollar’s Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data” (March 20), that chart is genuinely misleading. The Treasury’s own TIC FAQ flags the problem: holdings are reported by the location of custody, not by who bears the economic risk. China has been quietly migrating that custody, not liquidating it.

The evidence is in the data for two very small countries. As of November 2025, Belgium reported $481 billion in Treasury holdings and Luxembourg $425 billion, enormous totals for nations not remotely building reserves at that scale. Belgium is home to Euroclear; Luxembourg hosts Clearstream, and both countries are global settlement hubs. Over the period, China’s reported holdings fell by roughly $600 billion, Belgium’s rose by roughly $500 billion. Over the last twelve months, the UK, Belgium, and Japan were each net Treasury buyers of more than $115 billion, with Belgium’s holdings up 26%, the largest percentage gain among major holders.

As noted in that article:

“This is not a conspiracy. It is plumbing. One of the primary reasons that China uses Belgium for custodial purposes, besides avoiding geopolitical risk, is that the Euroclear Bank is based there and sits at the center of cross-border settlement and collateral mobility. Clearstream’s international depository is based in Luxembourg and serves the same global institutional client base. When a central bank or a state institution wants to hold a large Treasury portfolio with flexible settlement and collateral options, these hubs help address operational challenges.”

If we adjust China’s reported Treasuries to account for the custody migration to Euroclear and Clearstream, the total barely changes from its 2011 level. Meanwhile, total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries hit a record $9.4 trillion in November 2025. This is post-2022-sanctions risk management, not de-dollarization, and the dollar exposure is staying put. The plumbing changed. The balance did not.

The truly meaningful story is not about the dollar. It’s about who holds the debt and where they custody it.

Follow the Earnings, Follow the Flows

Why are foreigners still buying? The recent A16Z charts that are making the rounds this week tell you everything you need to know. Consensus earnings growth for the U.S. IT sector has been steadily revised higher all year, from 30.9% at the start of January to 37.1% in late February and 43.4% as of April. Info Tech is now expected to grow earnings more than 2x faster than the S&P 500 in 2026 (40% vs. 18%), with only Energy and Materials meaningfully outpacing the broader index.

This is the most important lesson to learn: Capital follows returns. Europe’s 2026 earnings growth runs in the mid-teens, while Japan is meaningfully lower, and Emerging markets approach U.S. IT growth rates but carry convertibility, governance, and geopolitical risks that most fiduciary capital will not underwrite at scale. Global pension funds, sovereign wealth vehicles, and private wealth allocators with fresh savings to deploy effectively have no choice but to route capital back into U.S. equities and the Treasuries that fund the dollar leg of those allocations. That is the mechanical underbelly of the AI capital cycle, and it is still early.

What to Recognize About the Dollar

The “dollar is dying” narrative does what every bear narrative does at cyclical inflection points: it trades a kernel of truth for a wholesale conclusion. Yes, the dollar has weakened, and the reserve share has drifted lower. Yes, central banks are buying gold, and China has rearranged its custody footprint. None of those observations is wrong. However, the leap from observation to apocalypse is exactly the leap investors need to consider very carefully before piling into.

The data simply does not cooperate with the “Dollar’s funeral” narrative. With net foreign inflows into U.S. stocks and bonds running near post-COVID highs, and total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries just setting a record of $9.4 trillion. The collapse narrative simply has no real support.

There are four things that matter more than headline-dollar print.

• First, central bank gold buying is not “leaving the dollar.” Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, benchmarked to the LBMA and COMEX benchmarks, and converted back to U.S. dollars whenever it is mobilized for intervention, collateral, or settlement. Like Treasuries, agencies, or equities, gold on a central bank balance sheet is a dollar-linked reserve asset. Buying gold reduces exposure to U.S. Treasuries as a security type, but it does not reduce exposure to the dollar as the world’s unit of account. It is a portfolio rebalancing decision, not a currency defection.

• Second, reserve share and transactional usage are not the same thing. Central banks can diversify into gold, euros, and yuan without meaningfully changing day-to-day dollar demand. One drifts slowly over decades; the other is set by trade invoicing and capital markets plumbing, and the dollar dominates both by wide margins.

• Third, there is no viable alternative. The yuan is hamstrung by capital controls and limited convertibility. The euro lacks a unified fiscal backstop. Gold has no yield and no settlement rails. And BRICS itself is not politically unified: India signed a trade deal with the U.S. in February and halted Russian oil purchases weeks later.

• Fourth, cyclical decline and structural decline are not the same thing. The dollar is in a cyclical downtrend that fits comfortably inside its roughly 7-to-10-year regimes. That is a trading pattern, not a funeral.

So what should investors actually focus on? Not whether the dollar survives, the flows have already answered that question. Instead, focus on the variables that genuinely move portfolios:

1. The earnings differential between U.S. and international equities,

2. Notably, the AI capital cycle, which will pull global savings back toward U.S. assets,

3. The Fed’s policy path, and

4. The cost of hedging dollar exposure relative to its realized volatility.

Those are the inputs that change returns. Whether the dollar prints 96 or 102 next quarter will not meaningfully alter the investment case for a diversified, dollar-denominated portfolio. However, the dollar is not collapsing or being replaced; it is simply being repriced. There is a very large difference between the two, and that difference is where investor attention belongs.

Narratives make headlines. Flows make markets. Right now, the flows are still pointing home — and the AI cycle means they likely will for some time.

🔑 Key Catalysts This Week

This is the most consequential week of the year. The FOMC decision, the Q1 GDP advance estimate, and earnings from five Magnificent 7 names: Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple. It all lands in a five-day window that will determine the market’s direction for the summer. Nothing else comes close.

The FOMC meeting Tuesday-Wednesday is the first catalyst. The rate decision itself is a foregone conclusion, a hold at 3.50–3.75%, but this is a statement-only meeting with no Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot, which makes the language and Powell’s press conference carry outsized weight. The key question is: Does the committee acknowledge that the labor market is deteriorating faster than expected, or does it lean into the inflation-first framing that dominated the March meeting? If Powell uses the word “patient” with respect to cuts, markets read that as “no action until at least September.” If he signals that the balance of risks has shifted toward employment, rate-cut expectations reprice immediately. This may be Powell’s final press conference as Chair before his term expires May 23, making every word a potential legacy statement, with Warsh waiting in the wings.

Tuesday is a collision day unlike anything we’ve seen this cycle. Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM, which has been deteriorating sharply, with the Expectations component flirting with the sub-80 recession threshold. That number drops just four hours before the FOMC decision at 2:00 PM, followed by Powell’s presser at 2:30 PM. Then, post-market is Meta’s (META) Q1 earnings after the close. Meta’s report is the first read on whether digital advertising spend held up through the March oil shock and tariff escalation, and the $115–135 billion capex guidance for 2026 remains the single largest AI infrastructure commitment in the world.

However, Wednesday is the mega-cap technology “trifecta.” Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) all report after the close. Microsoft’s fiscal Q3 may be the most important tech earnings event of the year. Azure cloud growth guided at 37–38% in constant currency is the AI infrastructure monetization proof point, and Copilot adoption data will tell us whether enterprise AI spend is translating into revenue or stalling at the pilot stage. The stock is down over 8% year-to-date and trading at the cheapest forward multiple since 2017. Alphabet’s Google Cloud (which grew 48% last quarter) and Amazon’s AWS (24% growth, $200 billion in 2026 capex guidance) round out the cloud trilogy. If all three miss on cloud growth, the AI capex cycle narrative cracks; if not, the rally continues.

Thursday is Q1 GDP at 8:30 AM. Q4 was revised down to just 0.5% annualized. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow sits at 1.2%, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast is at 2.3%, a historically wide spread that reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the economy is decelerating or stalling. A sub-1% print would ignite recession fears and put immediate pressure on the Fed to cut rates, regardless of where inflation sits. Apple (AAPL) reports after the close on Thursday and caps the Mag-7 wave, with iPhone 17 cycle data, China tariff exposure, and the Tim Cook-to-John Ternus CEO transition all in play.

Here is what to watch. The Fed will tell us what it thinks, GDP will tell us what happened, and the Magnificent-7 will tell us whether the growth premium that justifies their collective $14 trillion market cap. Any two of these could move markets 3%+ in a session. All three in the same week is a vol event. Hedge accordingly.

For now, the market continues to climb a wall of worry, and the technicals say respect the trend. RSI is elevated but not grossly overbought, and while breadth is improving, all moving averages remain green. Our March 200-DMA analysis continues to play out textbook. But Thursday’s reversal on the Tehran headlines was a shot across the bow; this market remains one oil headline away from a 2–3% air pocket. The pullback we flagged last week hasn’t materialized so far, which is making the setup increasingly stretched. New money should wait for a retest of 7,000 or the 50-DMA (~6,979). Stay long but trail stops and take partial profits into BofA’s 7,168–7,206 target.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 08:05

Israel Just Became Germany's Largest Arms Partner

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is regarded as the top authority on the international arms trade, released its latest report about related trends from 2021-2025 last month.

The top takeaway is that “Europe was the region with the largest share of total global arms imports (33 per cent) for the first time since the 1960s”, but there are three other relatively more minor details therein that most observers missed but which are also important to be aware of. They are as follows:

1. South Korea Edged Out The US As Poland’s Top Arms Supplier

Last year’s report covering the years 2020-2024 noted that Poland imported 42% of its arms from South Korea during that period and 45% from the US, yet the last report shows that it imported 47% from South Korea and 44% from the US. This respectively amounted to 46% of South Korean arms exports from 2020-2024 and 58% from 2021-2025. In total, South Korea exported 2.2% of the world’s arms during the first period and 3% during the second, thus showing the global importance of sales to Poland.

Why this matters is that it represents the first time to the best of the author’s knowledge that a NATO member is now supplied more by an Asian country than a fellow Western one. Poland’s enormous military build-up, which has resulted in it now fielding NATO’s third-largest army, is also a boon for the South Korean arms industry. With Poland increasingly demonstrating the quality of these wares to its allies during NATO drills, it’s possible that other members of the bloc might soon follow its lead.

2. Kazakhstan’s Is Gradually Replacing Russian Arms With Western Ones

During the period 2020-2024, Kazakhstan imported 6.4% of its arms from Spain and 1.5% from Turkiye as its second- and third-largest arms suppliers, with Russia far ahead of them with 88% of its supplies. During the latest period from 2021-2025, imports from Spain increased to 7.9% while France replaced Turkiye as Kazakhstan’s third-largest supplier at 3.6%, with Russia’s share slightly decreasing to 83%. The decrease in Russia’s supplies was therefore roughly replaced by the increase in Western supplies.

Why this matters is that it contextualizes Kazakhstan’s decision last December to produce NATO-standard shells, the potential consequences of which were analyzed here as possibly placing it on an irreversible collision course with Russia. The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” across the South Caucasus could also facilitate the flow of more Western arms by reducing transport costs. It’s therefore expected that Kazakhstan will continue to gradually replace its Russian arms with Western ones.

3. Israel Became Germany’s Largest Arms Partner Due To A Mega Arms Deal

Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.

Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.

What these three trends have in common is their adverse impact on Russian national security. The Kremlin likely assumed that Poland and Germany would continue militarizing, even competing to lead Russia’s containment, but South Korea and Israel’s new respective roles as their top suppliers probably came as a surprise. What it might not have anticipated at all, however, was the West gradually making gains in the Kazakh arms market. Russia will have to deal with these latent threats somehow or another.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 07:20

40,000 U.S. Retail Stores Could Close By 2030

UBS consumer analyst Michael Lasser told clients that a further rise in e-commerce penetration, from about 22% today to as high as 27%, could force the closure of 40,000 U.S. retail stores by 2030.

The warning comes as more than 10,000 stores have closed since late 2023, and shows how the shift to e-commerce is pressuring brick-and-mortar retail footprints nationwide.

Lasser's forecast is that e-commerce penetration rates in the U.S. will top 27% by the end of the decade, up from the current 22%.

Many of the projected closures will be across clothing, consumer electronics, home furnishings, office supplies, and sporting goods.

The advent of the internet and e-commerce has certainly put pressure on retail stores over the last two decades.

Also, the analysts point out the population winter that Elon Musk has warned about. The lack of a robust new consumer segment will put pressure on the consumer economy in the decades ahead. 

However, stores will continue to play a central role in retail ecosystems.

Big-box retailers have accounted for much of the growth in retail footprint.

The forecasted loss of 40,000 retail stores by the end of the decade would have a meaningful impact on the labor market and commercial real estate. Also, this is yet more evidence that the death of mom-and-pop retailing will accelerate. 

Professional subscribers can read the full U.S. Retail note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 06:55

Bessent: IRGC Leaders 'Trapped' Like 'Drowning Rats' By US Blockade, Will Soon Face Uprising Over Coming 'Gasoline Shortages Next'

Summary

• Bessent describes IRGC leaders as now "trapped like drowning rats" amid the enduring US naval blockade of Iranian ports, which will soon result in gasoline shortages, anger & uprising

• Putin tells FM Araghchi that he's been in contact with the new Supreme Leader, and says Iran fighting for 'sovereignty'

• After a weekend of stalemate malaise, Iran reportedly offers new proposal for opening ship traffic, while postponing the thorny nuclear issue; Rubio says 'will not tolerate' Iran control of strait

• Trump says peace could come via telephone rather than face-to-face meetings, also warning Iranian oil infrastructure could explode from within unless flow resumes; Tehran later says Trump has requested new talks

• Iranian FM has been sending written messages to US via Pakistani intermediaries 

• Israel strikes deep into Lebanon in Beqaa Valley for first time of 3-week ceasefire.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 42% · No 59%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Bessent: 'Rats' Trapped by US Blockade

In the early evening of Monday, well after markets closed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued the following on X (below), describing IRGC leaders as now "trapped like drowning rats" amid the enduring US naval blockade of Iranian ports, which will soon result in gasoline shortages and anger - and potential protests leading to uprising (according to US desires and aims). Also here is where things stand on the stalled negotiations, and an early hint of the potential White House reaction, per WSJ:

Iran has presented regional mediators with a new offer to stop its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war, including the U.S.’s lifting of its naval blockade of Iranian ports and the postponement of nuclear negotiations, according to officials familiar with the matter.

The proposal, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during his tour of the region and Pakistan over the weekend, is designed to break the deadlock in the conflict and set talks back in motion, the people said. President Trump and his national-security team are skeptical of Iran’s offer, U.S. officials said. Trump previously said negotiations could happen over the phone instead of in person.

And: "Trump held discussions with aides Monday morning about the offer. While he didn’t reject it outright, officials said Trump sounded notes about Iran not dealing in good faith or being willing to meet his key demand: ending nuclear enrichment and vowing never to make a nuclear weapon."

While the surviving IRGC Leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe, Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE.

Pumping will soon collapse.

GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT! https://t.co/Czgy9VsHBO

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 27, 2026

Meanwhile...

"The U.S. government has assessed that Iranian negotiators have not been authorized — either by the supreme leader or by senior Revolutionary Guards officials — to make concessions on the nuclear program. Without a resumption of military action, there is little reason to think…

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) April 28, 2026 Rubio: 'Will Not Tolerate' Iran Control of Strait

The latest via WSJ on what Iran is proposing, centered on immediately lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports:

Iran has presented regional mediators with a new offer to stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war and a lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, according to officials familiar with the matter. The proposal, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during his tour of the region and Pakistan over the weekend, is designed to break the deadlock in the conflict and set talks back in motion, the people said. It would see discussions about Iran’s nuclear program shelved. Washington hasn't responded to the proposal, one of the people said. Iran’s mission to the United Nations didn’t respond to a request for comment.

But US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told Fox News on Monday that the US will not tolerate Iran controlling or establishing a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio further asserted that the strait would remain open either through international pressure or a coalition-led effort.

Iranian Foreign Minister told Russia’s President Putin that US ‘destructive habits’, ‘unreasonable demands’ and frequent changes in positions are slowing diplomatic progress

Just days ago Iran began declaring that the first toll passage funds had been successfully transferred to the Central Bank of Iran, after Trump stated the US won't allow a toll system. Rubio further said the US will not normalize the Iranians being essentially a gatekeeper, with countries seeking permission from Iran.

We will not tolerate a system where Iran plays gatekeeper to the world.” 🚨

Secretary Marco Rubio draws a line. As the "dual blockade" chokes global energy, the U.S. stance is clear: The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, not an Iranian toll booth. pic.twitter.com/YECpK8SUi4

— Martin (@Martin_Sedi) April 27, 2026 Putin Says He's in Contact with Ayatollah in Araghchi Moscow Meeting

President Putin, FM Lavrov, and Iranian FM Araghchi have been meeting in Moscow, after warm greetings and amid competing narratives over the future of the Strait of Hormuz. The Russian leader said something surprising right out of the gate, at a moment Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen since the US-Israeli war began: "Last week I received a message from the Supreme Leader of Iran," he told Iran's Araghchi

Additionally Putin pledged, "The people of Iran are courageously and heroically fighting for their sovereignty." This certainly stands in sharp contrast from the US and Western consensus. Putin also stressed, "Russia will do everything that serves the interests of Iran and the region to achieve peace as soon as possible." This after Tehran on Monday made clear that it sees the future of the Strait of Hormuz as being under Iranian military control - an earlier headline which pushed crude prices up, and within hours later on this as well:

Hours prior, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described of Araghchi's arrival, "the importance of this conversation is difficult to overestimate in terms of how the situation around Iran and in the Middle East is developing." Araghchi to Putin: "It’s been proven to everybody that Tehran has friends and allies such as Russia... Allies that, in times of need, are standing next to Iran - and we are grateful to you for your support."

Source: Kremlin handout

The moment Putin greeted the Iranian top diplomat and his team (below), and where things stand on Iran's proposal...

Iran has reportedly sent a new proposal to the U.S. that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but only after an end to the war and guarantees it will not resume, according to sources and regional reports. Under the plan, broader talks on the nuclear program and maritime navigation would come later.

Vladimir Putin greets Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi and his team https://t.co/Zgto3ZyVVI pic.twitter.com/ObAOkfMmPN

— RT (@RT_com) April 27, 2026

Meanwhile President Trump is expected to hold a situation room meeting soon on Monday, related to Iran and the Hormuz crisis with his top national security and foreign policy team.

IDF Hits Beqaa Valley for First Time of Lebanon Truce

A three-week Lebanon ceasefire is officially in place, but in reality it exists on paper or in name only, as Israel has intensified and expanded its attacks, now striking the distant Beqaa Valley for the first time since the truce began. "The IDF says it has launched a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Beqaa Valley and several areas of southern Lebanon," Israeli media reported Monday. "The strikes come following repeated Hezbollah attacks on IDF troops and Israel during the ceasefire, including a deadly drone attack yesterday," according to The Times of Israel.

The latest coverage notes that "Israel has not struck in Lebanon’s eastern Beqaa Valley in some three weeks." The IDF frames the escalation as a response to Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire, while Hezbollah argues Israeli ground forces are on Lebanese territory and therefore legitimate targets.

Meanwhile, Joseph Aoun told representatives from southern villages that negotiating with Israel "is not betrayal," but necessary for stability. The Maronite Catholic leader added that "Betrayal is carried out by those who take their country to war to serve foreign interests."

Iran Offers New Path To Opening Strait

Running a little ahead of schedule, Sunday evening brought this week's infusion of pre-Monday-open optimism about prospects of ending the US-Israel war on Iran. Axios' Barak Ravid, a veteran of Israeli intelligence who routinely posts anonymously-sourced scoops, reported that Iran has presented a new proposal for opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the shooting -- though Iran's concept includes a potential non-starter via a proposed postponement of nuclear negotiations. No details were reported, beyond the notion of either an extended ceasefire or permanent end of the war that would accompany a full reopening of the strait. 

Earlier on Sunday, President Trump said face-to-face discussions with the Iranians weren't essential to ending the war. "If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, ​there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines," he told Fox News. "They know what has to be in the ⁠agreement. It's very simple: They cannot have a nuclear weapon; otherwise, there's no reason to meet."  

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:

Incorrect approaches and excessive demands by the U.S. caused the previous round of talks—despite progress—not to reach its objectives. pic.twitter.com/Bt7ikClaoe

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 27, 2026

Sunday's micro-dose of hope capped a weekend in which negotiations were perceived as grinding to a clear stalemate marked by a lack of warfare but also a continued choking of traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday, Trump's lead negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, were poised to travel to Islamabad for another round of negotiations with the Iranians when Trump nixed their trip at the last minute.

Iran's Fars news agency reported that Araghchi has "conveyed written messages regarding Iran’s red lines to the American side through Pakistani intermediaries." 

Iranian Foreign Minister Shuttles Between Pakistan, Oman, Russia 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been on the go. On Saturday, he left Pakistan after meeting with Pakistan's military chief, Asim Munir, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. On parting, Araghchi said he'd had a "very fruitful visit," while cautioning it's unclear "if the US is truly serious about diplomacy."

Iran's foreign minister travels in a jet emblazoned with "Minab 168," referring to 168 elementary-schoolgirls killed in a US Tomahawk missile strike in the opening of the US-Israeli war on Iran (via RT)

Then he was off to Oman for talks centered on re-opening the strait -- which lies between the two countries -- then back to Pakistan. By Monday, Araghchi was in St Petersburg, Russia for discussions with President Putin. Commenting on the relationship via X, Iran's envoy in Russia said: 

"Iran and Russia are present in a united front in the campaign of the world's ​totalitarian forces against independent and justice-seeking countries, ​as well as countries that seek a ⁠world free from unilateralism and Western domination." 

Trump: Iranian Oil Infrastructure In Peril From Limited Capacity

Trump told Fox News on Sunday that the US blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports is putting major pressure on the country's export infrastructure: 

“When you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them — they have no ships because of the blockade — what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth."

“It’s something that happens where it just explodes. And they say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”

That approximate scenario has also been outlined by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. “Once the tanks are filled, Iran would have to shut down its oil fields, which risks long-term damage to the fields,” AEI's Annika Ganzeveld told the New York Post. A worst-case scenario doesn't only imperil Iran's economy, but also threatens to put more upward pressure on global energy prices. Analysts differ on how much time Iran has before a forced shutdown of production  -- with estimates ranging from mere days to seven weeks. 

TankerTrackers.com on Sunday reported that Iran has loaded roughly 4.6 million barrels of oil at its terminals, without specifying the time-frame in which the feat had occurred. The outlet said another 4 million barrels have somehow evaded the US blockade. That volume of oil buys a few more precious days of storage capacity, the Wall Street Journal says. 

BREAKING: IRAN LOADS 4.6 MILLION BARRELS AT CRUDE OIL TERMINALS

ADDITIONAL FOUR MILLION BARRELS APPEAR TO HAVE EXFILTRATED US BLOCKADE LINE

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 26, 2026

Meanwhile, citing claims made by the secretary-general of the Iran Shipping Association, FARS reported that "Iran's maritime trade flow has not stopped, and ships are reaching ports by crossing the blockade." The report also said the bolstering of alternative routes -- including northern ports on the Caspian Sea and rail links to China and central Asia -- had also buffered the country's "economic resilience." 

Iranian Leadership Divided On Deal Terms

Iran's leadership is reportedly split on how flexible they should be on nuclear terms of a deal. Last year, at the encouragement of Israel and pro-Israel forces inside the United States, the Trump administration had adopted a maximalist position demanding that Israel agree to never again enrich nuclear material, even to levels far below weapon-grade. 

For many observers, this was seen as a demand that Israel knew Iran would never consent to, ensuring the all-out US-Israel war on Iran that Prime Minister Netanyahu himself admitted he had "yearned to do for 40 years." It's been the long-running conclusion of the US intelligence community that Iran has not been developing a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu has been warning of an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon for 34 years -- since 1992.  

Donald Trump has been repeating the same claims Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for over 30 years:

“Iran is very close to obtaining nuclear weapons” - often framed as “a few months” or even “a few weeks.”

For 30 years, the same pretext - and Iran still without nuclear weapons. pic.twitter.com/pagRS2hQ0I

— Mr. Whale (@CryptoWhale) April 15, 2026

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 06:15

Iran Already Scrambling For Oil Storage After Two Weeks Of US Blockade

Trump's blockade is having a predictable effect on Iran's economy and oil industry, with reports that the regime is scrambling to repurpose old and rusty tankers as floating storage.  Kharg Island is hitting capacity and the results could lead to disaster for Iran's oil wells. 

The regime is reportedly moving to expand crude storage at the island, where around 90% of their energy exports are processed, by reactivating a 30-year-old crude carrier called M/T Nasha.  It's a bad sign for Iran, indicating that the country’s main oil hub is nearing its onshore storage limit.  Maritime analysts say the vessel, which had been anchored empty for years, is being repositioned as floating storage to absorb crude that still has to move out of the system. 

To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement. She's a 30yo VLCC that's been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/jFhq2xP0mU

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 23, 2026

But how much time will decommissioned tankers buy Iran?  Current estimates indicate Kharg Island has roughly 13 million barrels of spare onshore storage remaining at the terminal, while net inflows are running at about 1.0 million to 1.1 million barrels per day.  At that pace, storage could be filled in about 12 to 13 days, which places the saturation point in late April to early May if current flows hold.  A large tanker gives them another potential 2 million barrels of capacity.  In other words, not much. 

This data is a near match to JP Morgan's recent assessment that Iran has between 20 - 26 days of capacity (including emergency measures) before they hit the wall and are forced to shut down their oil fields. 

Trump's assertion on Sunday that Iran's oil infrastructure may "explode in three days" due to the blockade might be a bit optimistic, but with the threat of overcapacity it is likely that the Iranians will be forced to the negotiating table in the near term.

The regime's only other option is to divert the oil away from Kharg to the Jask Oil Terminal at Kooh Mobarak using the Goreh-Jask pipeline.  But this storage is limited and may already be full.

There are also limited reports that Iran is increasing "flaring" at wells to burn off excess.  To keep wells operating safely (avoiding sudden shutdowns that can cause permanent geological issues), operators are flaring off excess associated gas (and possibly some liquid byproducts) at a heightened rate.

If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future.  Recovery is expensive and difficult. 

If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed.  Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. 

The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. 

There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks.  The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.      

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 05:45

12-Year-Old French Girl Collapses After Judge Releases Men Arrested For Gang Raping Her In Airbnb

Via Remix News,

Two young men, both adults, suspected of gang rape in an Airbnb in the France’s Décines-Charpieu (Rhône), have been released from custody, shocking the family of one of the victims.

The victim’s lawyer, David Metaxas, spoke on behalf of the victim’s relatives, who told LyonMag that the judge’s decision was “incomprehensible.” Not only have both men been released to roam freely in the streets, but the judge did not even issue a restriction on contact with the victim, which means the two men could approach her once again.

Last week, the two men, aged 20 and 21, were arrested for the rape involving the 12-year-old, as well as a 16-year-old girl who had allegedly led the younger victim to the apartment. After reportedly exchanging messages with the two young men via Snapchat, the teen encouraged her younger friend to come with her to the Airbnb. Alcohol and drugs were allegedly consumed, with an excessive amount of hard liquor given to the 12-year-old.

Falling unconscious, the younger victim recounted waking up “lying on a bed covered in blood,” before realizing what had happened, recounts Lyon Mag. It was when she turned her phone back on that her mother was able to geolocate her, allowing the police to intervene. She is said to have run away from her home in Givors before the incident.

However, now the perpetrators are free. The family of the 12-year-old says her safety and innocence were tossed aside from the get-go, with police allegedly not even asking her to file a complaint initially.

“They were very poorly received, as if they were a nuisance,” said David Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old. He pointed to a total lack of support and guidance, adding the very obvious and visible signs of rape suffered by the young girl.

“It is unacceptable that the form to file a complaint was not given to them by the police. It must be remembered that they were dealing with a young girl who had been deflowered, anally and orally penetrated, and who had wounds all over her body.”

Unfortunately, the 16-year-old girl and the accused men all stated that the girl was consenting. “Everyone agrees that she was consenting, or even that she was provoking, even though she is 12 years old and was completely drunk to the point of losing consciousness,” he said, adding that at the hearing, the girl was in an advanced state of shock.

“The lack of coercive measures concerning the suspects […] is incomprehensible,” stated Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old, as quoted by LyonMag. He added that the court has failed to demand any judicial supervision or even a restraining order on the alleged perpetrators.  

“They can, if they wish, contact and visit the young girl whenever they want,”  he warns.  “Therefore, there is total incomprehension, not to mention anger, on the part of the family.”

As for the young victim, she allegedly collapsed in the lawyer’s office upon hearing of the decision and was taken to the hospital. “She is in a state of total shock. She couldn’t utter a single word in my office. The justice system needs to take charge of this case very quickly,” he stated.

Metaxas insists he will not let the matter be and will be asking the public prosecutor that “a specialized service be put in charge of the investigation with the implementation of coercive measures to ensure the safety of this minor.”

The two men are still under investigation.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 05:00

Pentagon Investigates Mystery Fire At UK Base Used For Bombing Iran

The US Air Force has reportedly opened an investigation into a fire that broke out over the weekend at RAF Fairford in the UK. Crucially, it is a key US-allied base hosting a US bomber unit carrying out strikes on Iran as part of Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

The fire started early Sunday inside an "old or disused building" at the airbase, a UK defense ministry spokesperson has said. The Pentagon is investigating alongside local partners: "An investigation has been initiated and is ongoing. More information will be released as it becomes available," a statement said.

source: The Telegraph

No injuries have been reported and officials said the blaze was quickly continued, with no further threat posed to the base and surrounding community. But it was clearly very large at one point, video evidence shows.

The US was permitted starting in March to use the base for Iran-related operations. The Telegraph describes further of the fire:

Several crews were deployed to the incident at RAF Fairford in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Footage taken overnight appears to show smoke billowing from what is claimed to be the base’s commissary, a shop that provides food and equipment. Other pictures from the scene show that the building’s roof collapsed as firefighters brought the blaze under control.

Authorities are suspicious there may have been some kind of act of sabotage at the base, given widespread local opposition to its us by American forces to bomb Iran.

There's also been chatter of Irani-linked 'terror cells' in Europe. According to more from The Telegraph:

While some welcomed the arrival, there had been protests against the decision, with around 200 people gathered at the base on Saturday. Protesters held signs that read “No war on Iran”, “US out of British bases” and “Stop Trump’s deadly wars”.

The use of RAF Fairford halves the time US bombers need to spend in the air. Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to allow US troops to use the base prevented what would have been a 37-hour round trip from Missouri to Iran.

RAF Fairford remains among the few European bases capable of supporting long-range US bombers such as the B-52 and B-2, and thus is an important staging and logistics hub for the Pentagon.

Major fire reported at RAF Fairford overnight, a British airbase hosting a sizeable forward-deployed contingent of USAF bombers for Iran strikes.

The fire reportedly gutted a commissary building. pic.twitter.com/cveufpjC1t

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 26, 2026

Tensions have of late been strained between the US and UK over the Iran war, with PM Starmer dealing with a lot of domestic opposition, and Trump at the same time pressuring him to do more alongside the US in Iran and the Hormuz Strait.

If the fire was indeed arson, European authorities will likely look at the potential that it could have been Russia-linked, given widespread allegations of Moscow-backed sabotage operations in Europe and the UK, throughout the Ukraine war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 04:15

NATO Minus US: European Militaries Won't Add Up To Deter Russia

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s European nations would need to bolster standing militaries by at least 300,000 troops and significantly boost defense spending beyond 3.5 percent of gross domestic product - at least 250 billion euros - while reviving and integrating their industrial base to defend themselves against Russia without the United States.

And they’d need to do that fast, according to a 2025 joint analysis by European think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for World Economy.

They warn that even with 80,000 American soldiers and airmen stationed on 30 bases on the continent—and the United States’ capacity to rapidly deploy forces—Moscow will test NATO’s resolve “within three to 10 years.”

The once-inconceivable prospect of the United States withdrawing from NATO is now a possibility. President Donald Trump—never a fan of the 32-nation coalition the Pentagon has spearheaded since 1949—has called for a “very serious examining” of the alliance, after its members failed to respond to his appeal to assist in the Iran war or join the U.S. Navy’s Arabian Sea blockade of Iranian shipping. 

Trump has vowed Europeans could face a “reckoning” without American leadership and support. Such a departure would require unlikely congressional approval, but the president’s statements are sparking discussion on both sides of the Atlantic about a restructuring of the alliance that would require Europeans to shoulder more of NATO’s burden.

As widely reported, European allies are actively discussing and preparing for a “NATO minus U.S.” scenario. The idea originated in response to Trump’s demand for Europeans to bulk up support for Ukraine in fighting off Russia’s invasion, his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark, and his characterization of member states as “cowards” unlikely to uphold NATO’s commitments.

While Americans have questioned NATO’s post-Cold War resolve since former President Barack Obama’s administration, Europeans in turn have questioned Trump’s reliability in meeting treaty obligations. 

In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during the alliance’s 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries—roughly matching the percent of GDP the U.S. spends on its armed forces—and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements, such as cybersecurity, crisis response, and adapting roads, rail lines, bridges, and ports to military needs.

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal (L) and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte address the audience during a press statement at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on Oct. 15, 2025. Prodding by the United States to be more self-reliant in continental defense was already an urgency in most European capitals after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images Muscle and Money

The Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis documents Europe’s armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million troops. In order to withstand a hypothetical Russian invasion, a European-only force would need 300,000 more infantry soldiers, or roughly 50 more brigades, than it had in 2025. It would need a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces with more than 1 million 155 mm shells—the minimum for three months of combat, the Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis states. 

That boost in manpower and armaments would exceed the current French, German, Italian, and British forces combined.

And that’s just ground forces.

To match Russian war-footing military production—even with Ukraine attrition—a Europe-only military would need collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units. Such an army would need to replace stationed U.S. forces and rotational deployments within the 65-mile Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, while also establishing bases in Moldova and Romania.

These are but a few of the challenges a “NATO minus the U.S.” would face, military analysts and international relations scholars told The Epoch Times. And as Europeans by necessity assumed a more robust posture on the continent, American forces would need to compensate for the loss of specialties and skills brought by their European allies.

French soldiers dismantle a drone during the Dynamic Front 26 exercise in Cincu, Romania, on Feb. 9, 2026. In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during its 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements. Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images

“Non-U.S. NATO forces are well-trained and have some highly competent defense manufacturing industries,” said University of Miami professor of politics June Teufel Dreyer, a senior Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow and former U.S.–China Economic and Security Review commissioner. 

European giants such as Thales and Leonardo would “surely be attracted by the idea of more indigenous investment,” Dreyer said. But, she added, European defense contractors “also know the funds they need aren’t guaranteed” without orders from the U.S. military to, for instance, annually build 2,000 “long-range loitering munitions”—drones—to match Russia’s numbers.

“The French and the Germans build highly thought of diesel-electric submarines; Sweden produces great fighter planes,” Dreyer said.

But from a nuclear deterrent perspective, a U.S. departure from NATO is problematic. Dreyer pointed to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s June 2025 announcement that Britain would buy at least 12 U.S.-made F-35s to “enhance the interoperability of NATO defense” in its nuclear posture, since these jets would be the UK’s only nuclear deterrent beyond its submarine force. The stealth fighter is the first to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.

U.S. and European allies’ coordination in defense procurement and production “saves money and the R&D costs for the most advanced weapons,” she said, noting while the projected cost for the sixth-generation F-47 is $4.4 billion, but it is a shared NATO expense.

U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin speaks alongside President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on March 21, 2025. Trump announced F-47, a sixth-generation fighter intended to replace the F-22 Raptor, for the Next Generation Air Dominance program. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Specialties and Skills

If NATO ties are severed, the United States will no longer benefit from what retired Navy captain and Epoch Times contributor Carl Schuster calls “amazing capabilities that may prove essential in any conflict.” Those capabilities include aircraft and ship design, special ops, and regional know-how such as mountain operations capabilities and Arctic warfare expertise. 

However, many European military assets are aging, and it was only after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and Trump’s threats to pull the United States from the alliance—that leaders showed urgency to address the deficiencies, Schuster said.

He expressed doubts about Spain—which has refused to let the United States use bases on its mainland to attack Iran—and Turkey. 

“Spain has rejected any idea of its ground and air forces being committed to combat outside Spanish territory,“ he said. ”So their contribution to NATO defense is more statistical than real.”

Turkey has the alliance’s largest ground force, yet its “willingness to contribute to the defense of Greece, Bulgaria, and Eastern Europe” may be questionable, he said.

Middle East Forum Director Gregg Roman also questioned Turkey’s NATO commitment, in a September 2025 column in The Epoch Times, calling for “an urgent compartmentalization assessment” after Turkey made overtures to China and Iran during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. 

“Six months later,” he said in April, “that assessment is non-optional. You know, thinking about everything [NATO] is trying to put together—joint air missile defense planning—with an ally like Turkey that is functionally aligned with Iran and the [SCO] bloc that we’re opposing, they can’t be trusted."

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 03:30

Zelensky Charges Russia With 'Nuclear Terrorism' On 40th Chernobyl Anniversary

President Volodymyr Zelensky led Ukraine in a Sunday ceremony marking the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and used the occasion to call on the international community to take decisive action against what he called ongoing Russian "nuclear terrorism".

There were various candlelight remembrance ceremonies in cities across Ukraine, and in the capital. Later echoing the statement on Telegram, Zelensky alleged the the Chernobyl site's the New Safe Confinement structure - built with support from more than 40 countries - is under direct threat from Moscow’s aggression.

IAEA/X

The 1986 explosion and Chernobyl core meltdown is widely considered to be among the largest man-made disasters in human history. Zelensky has been hyping that another could be around the corner given Moscow's latest actions.

"Russian-Iranian Shahed drones constantly fly over the station, and one of them hit the confinement last year," Zelensky said, warning that another disaster could be imminent. 

"The world must not allow this nuclear terrorism to continue, and the best way is to force Russia to stop its reckless attacks," he then emphasized.

He described that protecting the Chernobyl site serves global interests and that the only way to guarantee safety is to force Russia to "stop its mad attacks."

The warning followed a major aerial assault on Saturday in which Russia launched over 660 missiles and drones at Ukraine, targeting cities and areas nationwide, including strikes on civilian infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv.

Various international organizations say extreme danger for disaster persists, but Rosatom insists it has safety under control:

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, and Moldovan President Maia Sandu joined the commemorative events.

Commenting on damage to the shell, which the environmental group Greenpeace says raises the risk of a radioactive leak, Grossi said that "repairs should start as soon as possible and that leaving the situation as it is now is problematic."

Any repairs to the massive metal outer structure, which may potentially take up to four years, are virtually impossible due to Russia's invasion, according to Greenpeace.

Russia's nuclear agency Rosatom, the successor of the Soviet atomic energy ministry, which managed the facility, said: "To remember Chernobyl means to remember the people who bore the brunt of the disaster, and to take that experience into account in every decision we make today, to prevent a similar catastrophe."

There was a very alarming 2025 incident where an explosive drone hit the protective containment shell of the defunct Chernobyl plant. However, emergency crews were able to make it to the impact site on the immense roof and make repairs. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides pointed the finger at the other for that attack.

Today marks 40 years since the Chernobyl disaster. On April 26, 1986, at 1:23 AM, a routine safety test spiraled into the worst nuclear disaster in history. pic.twitter.com/ioZFHTTNHh

— World of Engineering (@engineers_feed) April 26, 2026

Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war - and nuclear officials have been keenly aware of this possibility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 02:45

Orbán Vs Magyar: Did The EU Get Played?

Authored by Arthur Schaper via American Greatness,

Viktor Orbán, the valiant populist, the restorer of the Christian faith in Hungary, the welcome thorn in the side of the EU establishment, and the strong ally of President Trump since his first bid for office, has lost his own re-election bid. I had a feeling it would come to this.

Sixteen years of uninterrupted administration as a strong force for conservative, right-wing nationalist populism have come to an end, at least with Orbán as the head of it.

Sometimes, voters have a strange fatigue when it comes to governments. Fourteen years of a “conservative” UK government ushered in the Labour Party in 2024. However, fatigue doesn’t explain Orbán’s crushing loss.

What set that off?

Corruption charges and the argument that his administration had looked the other way when sex abuse scandals broke out at a local school.

Economics reared its ugly head, as well, since the EU was cutting off its funding. Orbán’s supposed lack of judicial reforms, as well as his uniform check on EU policy, frustrated Brussels.

Orbán faced a crisis election, and inviting US VP JD Vance to campaign on his behalf didn’t help.

Why would Hungarian voters care what a foreign politician thinks? This desperate move only exacerbated how out of touch the Orbán government had become. Critics also saw him as too close to Russian “president” Vladimir Putin and unhelpful in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war. The EU had been waiting for this opportunity: an unpopular Orbán facing electoral collapse.

They were salivating for a post-Orbán Hungary, one that would stop its Christian restorationism, welcome more LGBT promotion, tolerate more spending, and open its borders.

Would the Orbán replacement accomplish their scheme?

His challenger, Péter Magyar, was trained and prepped as an Orbán acolyte.

In 2024, he broke from his party, but not over core policy. Magyar (whose name means “Hungarian,” for what it’s worth) campaigned to end corruption and restore good government in Hungary. He campaigned to the right of Orbán, calling for an end to importing cheap labor into the country. He campaigned on cracking down harder on immigration—illegal and mass—than the incumbent.

His message, if anyone was listening, wasn’t pro-EU. He was still asking the question: “What about us Hungarians?”

Supporters of the cultural restoration Right thought that Orbán was not getting the job done. Was he failing?

April 12, 2026, Magyar’s Tisza Party swept the elections: supermajority status, up to 140 out of 199 seats. Orbán won 56 seats, and another far-right party won the rest.

Sure, EU progressive elites celebrate Orbán’s loss, as did Barack Obama and George Soros. They view the downfall of Orbán as a harbinger for the end of Republican hegemony in Washington later this year.

Yet look again at the results of the Hungarian parliamentary elections. I mentioned three parties that won seats: three right-wing parties. Not one left-wing or centrist element came to power or won seats. A minimum threshold of five percent in the election results is required for a party to place. The left was shut out of the Hungarian Parliament.

The Right Wing won Hungary. Orbán may have lost his premiership, but Orbánism is standing strong.

This election focused on personalities, not principles.

Magyar is just as socially conservative as Orbán. He has already pledged to end the foreign permit workers. He wants to give Hungarians in other countries a chance to come back to their own country and thrive again. That’s about as “Hungary First” as it gets!

Magyar has already stated that he will not support fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership into the EU. Huge move for ending the Russo-Ukrainian war!

He announced a diversification plan for energy. Instead of relying predominantly on Russia, he wants to draw oil from the South and the West, as well. This sounds like real economic freedom for Hungary. National populism is great, but it must face economic realities. Too many right-wing populist governments are shoveling out money to voters for school supplies, raising families, and pensions. Where is the money supposed to come from? More taxes?! From whom?

Right-wing socialism is still . . . socialism, and Orbán had a problem here.

Eventually, the government runs out of others’ money, or inflation bites whatever purchasing power the government intended for the people. Inflation and tariff pressures weighed down Orbán’s reelection chances.

Orbán’s Hungary was still not the perfect social conservative paradise for other reasons. Prostitution is still legal. Abortion is also still legal. While countries need to encourage their native populations to bear children, that vision will collapse in the face of easy sex and no responsibility. Cultural norms need reinforcement, with no tolerance for deviance.

Orbán and his party imposed vaccine passports and health mandates during COVID. How is this good for the working public? Where is the freedom? Too much state-sponsored anything is bad for a country.

Even now, Hungarians cannot own a gun without passing strict government demands. Czechia made self-defense a right, and in Switzerland everyone owns a gun (though it’s registered with the state).

Throughout his tenure, Orbán strengthened ties with China, joining the deceptive Belt and Road initiative. He even allowed Chinese police to operate in his country! American citizens voiced righteous outrage when the local press exposed former New York City mayor Eric Adams for allowing a CCP-run police station in the Big Apple. Yet no one on the Right complained about Orbán allowing CCP Hungary? That’s wrong.

There’s room for improvement, and Magyar has the opportunity to exceed Orbán’s victories while correcting his mistakes.

He is already doubling down on stopping mass migration!

He is committed to putting all Hungarians first, and he is fighting for the rights of ethnic Hungarians in other countries.

Magyar must revive and restore Hungary’s economy. One can hope he will place his country in a better position to profit without dependence and root out undue Chinese influence.

In a media masterstroke, he appeared on state television to discuss his plans for the country. Without missing a beat, he dressed down the reporter interviewing him, castigating the news organization for not allowing him on their program over the last year and a half. He then scolded them for lying about him and his family.

Then came the coup de grace: he announced his government plan to cut their funding and shut them down. Hungary needs honest independent media, he said, not government-funded agitprop that would inspire envy in Joseph Goebbels or North Korea.

He is not hostile to Putin, but he will not engage him aggressively either: sounds a lot like Trump!

He will not participate in the EU migration pact. He is keeping up the border fences, but he has also pledged to find a way for the EU to release the funds that the country needs, too.

He is making inroads with his Slavic neighbors, including the more populist, nationalist leaders in Slovakia and Czechia.

Magyar reminds me of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He isn’t just talking the national populist talk. He is walking the walk, and he is sprinting ahead with major reforms.

Orbán was T-800. Magyar may well be T-1000, and the EU Left is going to find that he will be worse for their globalist, leftist, secularist agenda.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 02:00