Zero Rss

Military Report Details Six UFOs Traveling At 480 MPH

Newly public military records are offering another look at unexplained objects encountered by U.S. forces, including a cluster reportedly moving through Middle Eastern airspace at extraordinary speed, according to the NY Post.

According to a CENTCOM account from 2025, military personnel tracked six round objects traveling together at about 480 mph. Their flight path was unusual enough to draw attention, with the objects repeatedly altering course. Military video from the encounter shows several small objects crossing the sky above an arid landscape.

The Post wrote:

A 2025 report from US Central Command (CENTCOM) details a sighting of “six small spherical objects, grouped together” and “frequently changing direction” at 480 mph. Accompanying the report was one minute of video footage showing the objects as they flew over what appeared to be a desert region.

Another video, from 2023, captured circular objects flying over the Yellow Sea that were spotted by an infrared sensor aboard a US military platform.

In a separate case that year, a Colorado police officer spent about 15 minutes recording a stationary, silent object displaying several different colored lights.

The Post writes that some of the material reaches much further back. In 1952, Navy warrant officer Delbert Newhouse filmed a formation of bright objects while traveling through Utah. The case eventually became part of Project Blue Book, the Air Force's long-running investigation into reports of unidentified objects in American skies.

Officials explored mundane explanations for the Utah footage, ranging from balloons to birds. One Air Force review ultimately attributed the objects to seagulls circling in rising air, although another examination found aspects of their brightness difficult to reconcile with ordinary birds.

The records are part of the government's continuing release of historical and more recent UAP material, providing additional documentation of sightings that military personnel and investigators have examined over decades.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 22:45

'Princes Of The Dollar': Why QE Is Over

Authored by Kane McGukin via Bombthrower,

What the G20, Werner, and Warsh tell us about America's new monetary playbook

In every transition, there are road signs along the way. Matt Dines has been one of the more accurate minds of late on the monetary and geopolitical transition we are living through.

His and Camron Otsuka's commentary earlier this month on Mine Print Hash, post the G20 meeting in North Carolina, sheds a lot of light on major sticking points that will pave the way for both future policy and monetary frameworks. This will not happen overnight, but at the same time we'll likely look back and say, "man, the world changed fast."

A few highlights that matter:

1. The Financial Stability Board (FSB). Just as Great Depression meetings brought new entities for the next cycle, G20 meetings post-GFC brought the FSB for the same reason. New rules to pave the way for stability in a new economic era (2009 Pittsburgh summit). According to Dines FSB brings AI into the mix, plugging it into the Basel Accords, the last of which, Basel III, an update required because of the financial behaviors and shortcomings that caused the GFC.

As Dines points out, all we need now is a final agreement so all parties can play nice around the new rails, i.e. stablecoin/Bitcoin/SOFR rails. Global stablecoin arrangements will take final shape after the announcement of a Bretton Woods 2.0. Something I've discussed many times over, and something that feels nearer and nearer by the day. The most important point? Bessent has basically championed this from day one.

As Werner's model suggests (see point four), Bessent opposes the state picking winners directly, but supports guiding private capital toward strategic ends. Video referenced in Samson's post.

2. Bringing forward the private sector as a way to grow our way out of this. What's critical to understand here is that during the GFC, entities and individuals were overleveraged. To combat this, the central bank expanded its balance sheet to take on all the underwater debt. Today, the script is flipped. The private sector is relatively unlevered, and the central bank is overlevered. This is important because the only way to grow an economy is to guide credit towards productive use cases. Regardless of opinion, this has been the underlying basis of the early-stage beginnings of all successful economies and empires for centuries (see Werner). For those keeping score at home, these are the breadcrumbs we've been given to better understand where monetary and fiscal policy are going (Office of Strategic Capital).

3. G20 is bringing in banks and private institutions, which is a paradigm shift in how credit allocation works. This is the announcement. We are going to run a different playbook for our monetary framework from now on. This is the only way out. The only way back to some state of "normal". This is exactly what Werner lays out in the Princes of the Yen. An in-depth study of Japan and other great banking empires. Our "new approach" will be one that has succeeded many times in the past. Including during the creation of America. Why? Because this style best achieves rebuilding the US' industrial capacity - think modernization of infrastructure. Today's infrastructure and infrastructure for the 21st-century is inherently digital. That's why capital formation is being directed and pointed at all things AI and digital. This is why all these related industries are points of "national security". This is what is meant by "Hamiltonian policy", a notion we've discussed before.

In short, exactly as Dines pointed out, you're going to have to pick sides - US or China. This is what is meant by the new multi-polar world. Believe it or not, for the first time in more than two decades, "we're actually trying to accomplish something".

4. Credit expansion is the only way to get growth (PofY), which is why Main Street over Wall Street matters. See the Foundry School to better understand the government's refocus on centralizing and deploying capital into productive use cases. Centralize the steering of credit, decentralize who receives it.

The key to the entire process is Matt's highlighting of Richard Werner's work. Richard wrote the Princes of the Yen, which outlines not only the rise and fall of the great Japanese financial system, but more importantly, the foundations of how dominant banking and financial systems work. A means by which the US economic system has drifted far away from over the last thirty to fifty years.

In simple terms, the keys are state-directed capital and credit allocation to productive uses. That's all that matters for a budding or dominant economic system. Without it, one dies. Without it, one meanders toward financial engineering practices that eventually kill the entire system. Proper credit allocation (capital formation) is representative of early-stage and highly successful/functioning economic systems. Financialization is the sign of an aging or failing financial system. If you strip out all the complexity and jargon, it's as simple as this.

As Werner points out, the Quantity Theory of Credit is the origin of all successful banking models that have worked for thousands of years. It started in early Asia before moving through Europe, Germany, Japan, the US, and now back to China. It was the basis of China's rise as they've built out the Belt and Road system over the last decade-plus. It has allowed them to pull economic power and global sway away from the US by way of state-directed capital aimed at globally and systemically important supply chains. By doing so, China created a vast decentralized product and manufacturing hub for the world; for anything and everything at a low price. On the contrary, the US chose the more deadly path. Centralization, consolidation, and a reduction in the number of banking entities. All the while increasing the amount of financialization, leverage, and risk in the fewer and fewer nodes within the system.

WOW. The # of banks in the US, by era, as presented by @MaxfieldOnBanks. I had never thought of it this way. Once you see it you can’t unsee it… pic.twitter.com/CJQJdIZEYv

— Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 (@CaitlinLong_) September 15, 2026

The core thesis, unlike what we've seen in the US over the last two decades, is decentralization. In short, you have the combination of centralized capital flows towards a decentralized private sector, which forms the basis of growth. You conquer, so to speak, in numbers.

This is a major paradigm shift from what we've become, but it is what we are finally seeing the US wake up to and begin to move back towards.

That's why it feels so chaotic and out of sync. It's different than anything we've seen in the last 70 to 100 years or more. It is what Hamilton implemented in the US to found our great and successful American experiment. It is what we reimplemented in the 30s to 50s to extend US dominance. But it is what we moved away from post-1971 with the creation of petrodollars and a heavy reliance on financialization and incentivization of lack of productivity (service). It is what stablecoin dollars, Bitcoin, and a SOFR based system are meant to hopefully replace. The brokenness of petrodollar and eurodollars. These steps are an attempt to revert back to something that works - productivity.

Instead of growth, for decades, we've implemented policies that promote fewer and fewer entities in industry and banking. The exact steps that choke off growth and kill economic systems. It also leads, as we've seen, to a vicious cycle of bad policy design that encourages less competition. All of which only exacerbate the problem.

Eventually, you end up right where we are. In an unproductive and overly financialized economy without the ability to provide because you've outsourced everything for the sake of profits, quarterly numbers, and inflated margins for analysts to bicker over. At some point, you wake up and realize the amount of power you've given away to others by centralizing your resources and profits into fewer and fewer hands. That's when you realize those providing to you have decentralized their resources, profits, and state-directed capital into real economic power that eventually unseats you from number one.

For a financial system to work, the entire system must depend on the quantity of credit, as Werner lays out, and if you follow the Japanese story, which I believe we are only 25-30 years behind, then Kevin Warsh is no different than the last Central Bank prince whose specific role was to change the regime. Unfortunately, if we choose to extend, the only option is to become the carry trade for others to piggyback off of. As we see, that game can unproductively go on for decades.

As Dines notes, the QE period is over. The only move to sustain is to provide credit to those who have capacity (Main Street) and guide it into productive use cases (21st-century infrastructure).

Sign up for the Bombthrower mailing list here. Follow Kane McGukin on Substack here.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 22:10

Foreign Capital Returns To Brazil As Goldman Clients See 20% Stock Rally If Bolsonaro Defeats Socialist

Brazil's tightening presidential race could drive a sharp repricing of local equities.

A new Goldman Sachs survey of 70 global investors found that half see at least 20% upside in EWZ, the US-listed Brazil equity ETF, by year-end if right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro defeats socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The first round is scheduled for Oct. 4, with a potential runoff on Oct. 25.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Nelson Armbrust provided clients color on the upcoming elections in South America, which could cement a historic, once-in-a-generation rightward shift across the continent.

Related:

• Brazil At A Historical Crossroads

He focused on positioning:

Flávio Bolsonaro (right-leaning candidate) is gaining momentum; polls show him tied or closing the gap in the second round. 

As a reminder, pools don't adjust for the likely voter (aka: the people that actually turn up on the day to cast a vote, no mail ballot votes in Brazil), and historically there has been higher absence from Lula's voters. 

We just did a survey with 70 global investors about their cross-asset views in Brazil, the bottom line:

• Equities is the least owned asset class (60% are either "very light" or "light") and it is the vehicle this group sees the most upside (half see EWZ at least +20% by year end if Flavio wins) From my convos, local Equity investor positioning is a 6/10 while local Macro accounts are small in equities (3/10). 

Foreign capital is starting to come back to Brazil as we near the event:

We have seen massive buying of upside from investors, EWZ Call Open Interest at ALL TIME HIGHS:

Implementation: I like EWZ Call Spreads for November (runoff is October 25th) and going long our Rate Sensitive basket (GSBZRATE Index).

Implied 2 month vols have risen from ~30v to ~45v and past election cycles (noted on the graph below) show that vols could keep moving higher.

But the cost of the 30% delta call vs the 10% delta call has been stable lately and is historically cheap (21st percentile).

EWZ Nov 42 50 call spread = $1.00 offer 8x max payout, ref 37.20, ~45v ATMF, 23% delta, max loss is premium paid. 

Another way to implement is going long GSBZRATE Index, they are the 30 stocks in Ibovespa most correlated to 5y rates. It is composed of Fins (38%), Real Estate (17%), Industrials (17%), Utilities (12%), Cons Disc (9%) and Materials (6%). You can trade U$75mn a day at 10% volume. 

Brazil has the highest real rate in the WORLD (~10%) and is the most correlated EM Equity with local Rates. If rates come down, the move in Equities could be meaningful.

Below is a chart of the basket's P/E vs local short-term rates (Jan29 rates) inverted. As flagged by Louis Miller, one could expect a ~30%+ re-rating in GSBZRATE (P/E going from 9x to 12x) if the local rates price in 200bps of cuts – from my investors discussions, 200-300bps is where most expect to see short term rates by year end if Flavio wins.

Historically when the market prices cuts, our Brazil Rate Sensitive Basket delivered ~3x the Ibovespa's return (table below). The basket struggles if rates are cut due to recession risk or if there is a commodity boom (1/3 of Ibovespa is commods). Quick explanation below on periods the basket did not outperform Ibovespa (and I don't expect any of these scenarios to play out):

• Jan2010-Aug2010: economy and inflation were strong, CB started hiking and we had a bull flattening of the curve so the ongoing 5y came down.
• Jan2014-Aug2014: CB finished a hiking cycle on April 2014, economy started to decelerate sharply, mkt read it as "CB wont be able to keep rate high for long" so the 5y came down. Also, 2014 was an election year with Dilma x Aecio Neves (mkt thought Aecio, a right-leaning candidate, would win… but he lost and Ibovespa finished flat on that year.)
• Dec2015-Apr2018: huge commodities boom from China expanding, so Vale and Petrobras led the rally. Also in Aug2016 Dilma was impeached and Temer ran the country. During this time, markets rallied.

Earlier this month, Polymarket showed Bolsonaro overtaking Lula for the first time, and that lead has held through Saturday morning. Bolsonaro's odds of winning currently stand at 57%, while Lula's are around 42%.

Brazilian stocks have rebounded alongside rising Polymarket bets on a Bolsonaro victory.

A Bolsonaro win would cement a rightward shift after socialists spent years destroying the continent with nation-killing progressive experiments.

Also, across the pond in Europe, Nomura analysts expect an 18-month election cycle that sees the continent "lurching right."

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 21:35

Waste Of The Day: SBA Reviewed Loans 20 Years Late

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

The Small Business Administration potentially made $11.5 million in improper payments to banks after overruling its own employees who had recommended reducing or denying government guarantees on 16 failed small-business loans.

For another 13 failed loans, SBA took so long to review them that the six-year statute of limitations expired, wasting another $5.4 million, according to an Aug. 27 inspector general report.

Key facts: SBA's 7(a) program helps startups with a risky business model get loans, but it does not generally lend taxpayer money directly. Private banks make loans of up to $5 million, and the government promises to cover as much as 85% of the loss if the borrower defaults.

But taxpayers only have to honor that guarantee when the bank follows SBA rules. If a bank failed to properly determine whether a borrower could repay the loan, verify required investments or follow other safeguards, SBA can reduce or deny the payout to the bank.

Auditors reviewed 32 failed loans where SBA employees recommended reducing or denying the payouts to banks, but higher-level reviewers later overturned those decisions.

For 16 of the 32 loans, auditors found insufficient evidence to justify the reversal, resulting in $11.5 million worth of potential improper payments. That included almost $4.9 million loaned to borrowers who never showed evidence they could repay the money.

One small business defaulted within 18 months. The bank argued that the small business had a sound strategy, but it failed due to the unforeseen loss of a major customer. The bank provided no evidence for its claim, but the SBA paid the guarantee anyway.

The SBA is also taking far too long to review high-risk loans, the audit found. The agency has only six years to sue a bank for violating the loan terms, but auditors found 13 loans where impropriety was not discovered until that deadline had passed. Two of them were not reviewed for more than 20 years after the loan guarantee was paid.

The SBA legally could have withheld other federal payments to the banks even after the six-year time limit expired, but the SBA has no process for doing so, the audit found.

SBA guaranteed $37 billion through 77,600 new 7(a) loans in fiscal year 2025.

Summary: A government loan guarantee is supposed to protect lenders from legitimate business failures, not protect them from following the rules. Taking 20 years to decide which is which leaves taxpayers holding the bag.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 21:00

Tesla Engineers Audit Chinese Suppliers As Optimus Commercialization Nears

About a month after JPMorgan analysts toured Tesla's Fremont factory and confirmed a "targeted four-month transition following the end of S/X production in May" to humanoid production lines, a new report on Friday says that Tesla engineers arrived in China to inspect robotics component suppliers, as Elon Musk appears to be moving closer and closer toward the commercialization of humanoid robots.

Bloomberg first reported this development as Tesla engineers arrived in Ningbo, a major port and manufacturing city in Zhejiang province on China's eastern coast, just south of Shanghai. The engineers inspected parts and component factories for the humanoid robot called "Optimus."

"Tesla's reported supplier audits are a positive commercialization signal for China's humanoid supply chain, pointing to progress toward repeatable Optimus production," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma wrote in a note, adding, "Near-term sentiment could stay supported if audits lead to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders."

Tesla is reportedly targeting the second half of 2027 for commercial sales of Optimus. Production is likely to begin much earlier, as JPM analyst Rajat Gupta said the "Optimus Academy" will be operating later this year, with robots collecting real-world training data before being deployed in factories.

News of this development sent the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index slightly higher on Friday, up about 1.4%, amid a tumultuous year that has left it down about 30%.

The market's appetite for physical AI, specifically humanoids, was hyped in mid-August by China's blockbuster Unitree IPO, but the momentum failed to follow through.

Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee recently pointed out that the adoption curve for humanoids will be much steeper than that of automobiles over a century ago.

Goldman analysts last month raised their global humanoid robot delivery base case to 75,000 shipments in 2026, 890,000 in 2030, and 6.5 million in 2035, versus previous estimates of 51,000, 256,000, and 1.4 million, respectively.

The invasion of physical AI is just around the corner.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 20:25

HHS Awards $42.3 Million To Push 'Treatment First' Model For Homelessness & Addiction

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A federal agency within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) awarded $42.3 million in new supplemental cash Friday to states and territories with the goal of speeding up the implementation of the Treatment First model for homelessness tied to addiction.

The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) funding supports the initiative falling under President Donald Trump's executive order titled "Ending Crime and Disorder on America's Streets" and the relevant Best Practices Toolkit that followed. That order from July 2025 directed agencies to put treatment and recovery ahead of the old approaches.

"President Trump has directed us to break the cycle of homelessness and addiction by putting treatment, recovery, and self-sufficiency first," HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a statement. "These investments will help states move people from crisis into treatment and from treatment into lasting recovery, stable housing, and work. We are funding results that help people reclaim their health and independence."

About $17.3 million of the funds went to Community Mental Health Services Block Grant recipients. Officials say it builds systems, partnerships, workforce capacity, policies, and the technical pieces needed to make Treatment First a success. The funds will go toward technical assistance, training, policy work, and coordination across systems.

Roughly $25 million went to Substance Use Prevention, Treatment, and Recovery Services Block Grant recipients to expand options for safe, licensed, certified, or chartered sober and recovery housing, as well as the requisite technical assistance to ensure that more recovery residences open and quality standards tighten.

"Treatment First means building a system that does not leave people cycling between homelessness, emergency rooms, and the criminal justice system," SAMHSA Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Christopher D. Carroll said. "These investments will help states strengthen the infrastructure - partnerships, data, workforce, and recovery supports - needed to connect people with serious mental illness and addiction to effective treatment and support them on a path toward lasting recovery, stable housing, employment, and self-sufficiency."

In June, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) published a $4.04 billion Continuum of Care notice. It walked away from the Housing First model, which provided permanent housing with no strings attached. Chronic homelessness climbed 81 percent from 2013 to 2025, despite the number of taxpayer-funded beds increasing 151 percent, HUD figures show.

HUD Secretary Scott Turner called Housing First a failure that "warehoused the vulnerable without results." Housing alone will not fix a crisis driven by addiction and mental illness, he said.

Kennedy earlier this year announced more than $700 million for related work, of which nearly $100 million went to the STREETS program for homeless people dealing with addiction or serious mental illness. In February, he introduced the $100 million STREETS effort itself, built around continuous contact from the street through recovery, jobs and self-sufficiency.

A federal appeals court this week allowed HUD to forge ahead with funding shifts after lower-court challenges. The department has earmarked $1.3 billion for transitional housing and supportive services.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 19:50

Appeals Court Rules Federal Ban On Interstate Handgun Sales Unconstitutional

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 against the federal government's ban on interstate transfers of handguns on Sept. 18, finding the nearly 60-year-old law was unconstitutional.

The ruling reverses provisions of the Gun Control Act of 1968 that prohibit handguns from being sold directly from licensed firearms dealers to buyers across state lines.

"The ban sullies the plain text of the Second Amendment and is inconsistent with the nation's tradition of firearms regulation, dating back to the founding era, under that Amendment," Circuit Judge Jerry Smith wrote in the ruling.

The court also rejected the lower court's analysis when dismissing the lawsuit last year, determining that the historical record adequately justified the ban because colonial and state laws regulating the movement of firearms across borders satisfy conditions outlined in the Bruen ruling of 2022.

The Supreme Court's 2022 decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen set a history-based standard: A new regulation must be consistent with the nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation.

Smith wrote that the lower court's analysis "stretches the historical record far beyond what it can actually bear."

Circuit Judge Catharina Haynes dissented, agreeing with the lower court's decision to dismiss the case last year.

"I agree with the district court's decision that the several provisions of [the gun control act] discussed in this case are not unconstitutional under the Second Amendment," Haynes wrote. "That is all that is in play in this case."

The federal lawsuit was filed in January 2025 by Texas custom firearms dealer Elite Precision Customs LLC and out-of-state customers Tim Herron, a New Mexico-based grand master in the U.S. Practical Shooting Association, and Freddie Blish, a retired U.S. Marine Corps veteran who travels around the country teaching safe firearms handling for self-defense.

The Firearms Policy Coalition, a national gun rights organization, also joined the lawsuit against the federal government.

The plaintiffs argued the law prohibited people from directly purchasing handguns from licensed dealers outside their state of residence, while allowing them to buy rifles and shotguns.

Handgun buyers were forced to arrange transfers through a licensed dealer in their state, which required them to depend on another dealer agreeing to participate in the transaction and usually included more fees and delays, according to the Firearms Policy Coalition.

The Firearms Policy Coalition said the ruling was a win for people's rights.

"This is a massive victory for the People and another major defeat for the federal government's unconstitutional gun-control regime," said the coalition's President Brandon Combs in a statement. "Your right to keep and bear arms does not stop at your state line, and the government cannot make you pay a penalty just to exercise it."

A district court in Texas granted the federal government's motion to dismiss the lawsuit on Sept. 30, 2025, finding the sale restrictions didn't function as a de facto prohibition on possession but were a reasonable commercial restriction enacted by Congress.

Congress passed the Sale Restrictions provision in 1968, finding that interstate commerce provided an easy way for citizens to evade states' gun laws at the time, according to the lower court.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 18:40

CENTCOM Claims US Military Has Escorted A Billion Barrels Of Crude Out Of Hormuz

Brent crude futures eased toward $103 a barrel by the end of the week as mixed Iran headlines and hopes for renewed diplomacy around next week's United Nations General Assembly weighed on energy markets.

On Saturday morning, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the US had escorted 1 billion barrels of oil and more than 2,000 commercial vessels out of the Persian Gulf over the past couple of months.

Hostilities at the Hormuz chokepoint continued into Friday, as CBS News reported that two vessels were hit by projectiles. Iran claimed responsibility for striking one over an alleged "illegal crossing."

President Trump said Thursday he would soon make a "big decision" on whether to launch a major assault to "annihilate" the Iranian regime. "It's a big decision," the president told Axios ahead of a planned meeting with Persian Gulf leaders next week. "Anything could happen to me."

We suspect any major action against the Iranian regime could come after the midterm elections, whether kinetic, securing or neutralizing Kharg Island, or a next phase of expanded sanctions that could include not just Tehran but also China. 

Middle East oil exports have stayed resilient despite the Saudi East-West pipeline disruption, largely because flows have been rerouted through Hormuz.

UBS oil and gas analyst Henri Patricot wrote in a note that combined crude and petroleum-product exports through the critical waterway and alternative routes reached about 14 million barrels a day in the two days preceding Friday. He said the weekly average remained around 12 million barrels a day, compared with more than 20 million before the conflict kicked off in late February.

That still leaves global oil markets with a deficit of more than 8 million barrels from these export routes on a weekly basis. This only shows the scale of the disruption that continues ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, as Saudi Arabia told major refineries in Europe that crude loadings would be halted next month due to ongoing disruptions to the East-West pipeline.

Patricot said the increased shipments through the Hormuz chokepoint continue to be driven by "dark transits":

Reduced concerns on near-term flows, same uncertainty on resolution

A pick-up in flows via the Strait of Hormuz in recent days has eased some of the concerns around near-term crude supply, impacting prices. More reports indicate that Aramco will raise exports from Oman over the next few weeks. Flows will reportedly be going to Asia. US President Donald Trump said that the is nearing a decision over whether to restart attacks on Iran. He is due to meet GCC leaders next Tuesday. Meanwhile attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly continued.

Flows going up in the past couple of days, despite Yanbu interruption 

We estimate total crude oil and oil product exports via Hormuz plus volumes diverted to the bypass routes were up to 14Mb/d in the past couple of days, despite the drop in Yanbu. Total flows remain at 12Mb/d on a weekly basis vs. the >20Mb/d preconflict. The increase continues to be driven by dark transits via Hormuz as visible volumes in the latest UBS Evidence Lab data. Another LNG carrier left the Gulf yesterday, the second one we have seen exiting this month. Flows via the Bab el Mandeb Strait remain within the recent range.

Gulf loadings ramping up Gulf 

Gulf crude loadings ex-Iran rose to >10Mb/d over the past 2 days and are near their highest level since the start of the conflict at 8.1Mb/d over the past week vs. the August average of 5.5Mb/d. This is driven by higher Saudi and Iraqi exports. There is still no fresh Iranian crude loading on the other hand . Including Fujairah, loadings on the bypass routes averaged 2.5Mb/d in the past 2 days and are at 4.9Mb/d so far in September vs. 3.4Mb/d in August and 6.4Mb/d in July. Oil product loadings in the Gulf are also bouncing back slightly, above 1.5Mb/d vs. sub-1Mb/d for most of the conflict. 

Separately, JPMorgan's head of global markets strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, told clients, "Middle East oil exports have stayed unexpectedly resilient despite the Saudi East‑West pipeline disruption, largely because flows have been rerouted through Hormuz."

Brent crude futures settled around $103.87 a barrel on Friday, while the US diesel crack spread closed around $112.60 a barrel, suggesting the crisis is less about crude and more about refining (read Goldman's diesel report), specifically diesel.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 18:05

Trump Drops 'Fake News' Receipts As CNN, MSNBC, Politico Journos Have White House Badges Revoked

Update (1200ET): Following through on his promise, journalists from CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were denied access to the White House grounds on Sept. 19 after President Donald Trump announced a ban targeting the outlets the day before.

Akayla Gardner, a White House correspondent for MS NOW, said that her press pass was revoked at the third gate she passed through to enter the grounds on Saturday morning.

“Once I was inside where we have magnetometers, I attempted to scan my badge, which we have to do to be able to get into the White House grounds,” Gardner said during a live broadcast on MS NOW.

“It did not work. There was a red beeping light, and so the officer asked me to hand over my badge. He said that it was disabled.”

Gardner said the officer on duty wasn’t able to explain specifically why her badge did not work, allegedly saying the decision “was above him.”

Gardner’s badge and her photographer’s badge were both then “taken” away from them by security, she said. However, an MS NOW producer’s pass was approved, and the employee was still able to go inside, Gardner said.

MS NOW defended its team and newsroom in a statement on Saturday morning, saying the media channel plans to take “any and all steps necessary to defend our First Amendment rights” as journalists in a democracy.

“The White House belongs to the American people and the decisions made inside are funded by our tax dollars,” MS NOW stated on social media.

The outlet stated that it will continue reporting on the Trump administration, even if its reporters are not allowed on White House grounds.

CNN’s reporter Betsy Klein was also denied access and had her press pass revoked.

CNN responded with a statement defending its White House team:

“CNN stands fully behind our White House team and their fair and accurate reporting,” the statement read.

“We have a right under the U.S. Constitution to do that reporting without hindrance or interference from the government. Should the ban which President Trump threatened go ahead, it would be an illegal assault on that fundamental and constitutionally-protected right.”

POLITICO editor-in-chief Jonathan Greenberger shared in the publication’s daily newsletter Playbook that the company’s White House reporter, Cheyenne Haslett, was also locked out on Saturday.

“Secret Service denied her entry to the complex and confiscated the pass that allows her access to the White House,” the statement read.

“We stand by her and all reporters here covering the White House. As we said yesterday, we will vigorously defend our First Amendment rights.”

White House Correspondents’ Association president Jacqui Heinrich, a Senior White House Correspondent for Fox News Channel, accused the White House of singling out CNN, MS NOW and Politico for “doing their jobs.”

“The Constitution protects the freedom of the press from government interference,” Heinrich wrote in a statement on Sept. 19.

“That protection does not depend on whether the president likes a news organization’s coverage, agrees with its reporting, or approves of the questions its journalists ask.”

Shortly thereafter, The White House Rapid Response account on X responded with a list cataloging years of the network's own reporting failures and outright fabrications, nearly 50 examples in all...

Ouch!

*  *  *

As Zachary Stieber detailed last night via The Epoch Times, President Donald Trump on Sept. 18 said he has banned three news outlets from the White House.

Trump said on Truth Social that he was, effective immediately, banning CNN, MS Now, and Politico from the White House “as a result of their constant ‘reporting’ FAKE NEWS!”

The president added:

“Media Outlets shouldn’t be able to constantly write or report FICTION and LIES when they’re covering the President of the United States, the Trump Administration, or the United States of America. Other Fake News Media Outlets to follow.”

MS Now and Politico did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

CNN could not be reached.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for more details regarding which stories or posts the president was referring to.

Trump routed them during a post-tweet press conference: 

"What I do ask is just a semblance of truth. CNN is fake news. MSNOW is fake news. They're fake news. They know it. They're putting there for a reason."

"Politico was bailed out by our government from going out of business."

🔥 President Trump is now LAYING THE HAMMER after the Fake News WHINED that he blocked CNN/MSNOW/Politico from the White House

"What I do ask is just a semblance of truth. CNN is fake news. MSNOW is fake news. They're fake news. They know it. They're putting there for a reason."… pic.twitter.com/sxUtdqwCOQ

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 18, 2026

Trump added that "I don't want them in my office", stating that he will take this as far he can including "we'll be suing these people too."

He concluded by noting that "there may be other media outlet bans to follow."

The Fake News are Democrat operatives pretending to be journalists.

The toughest question the media ever asked Joe Biden was his favorite ice cream flavor! pic.twitter.com/PMNXrAtRZO

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 18, 2026

Trump previously banned The Associated Press from the Oval Office and other spaces after the outlet declined to change its stylebook to reflect the president’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

A federal judge entered an injunction against the ban, determining that it violated the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment because it discriminated based on The Associated Press’s viewpoint.

But an appeals court in mid-2025 partially stayed the injunction. The court allowed Trump to ban the outlet from the Oval Office, Air Force One, and some other spaces, concluding that “these restricted presidential spaces are not First Amendment fora opened for private speech and discussion” and that the White House “therefore retains discretion to determine, including on the basis of viewpoint, which journalists will be admitted.

Judges also ruled that Trump could not ban reporters from the White House’s East Room.

“The identified harms are less clear with respect to the East Room, which does not share the hallmarks of spaces like the Oval Office,” the majority said.

At present, however, there is no White House press secretary and the usual press briefings are somewhat disrupted. The most likely immediate outcome is that the administration attempts to remove those networks from the presidential and vice presidential pool rotations.

* * * This bag made out of 1000D Military-Spec Cordura® 

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 16:50

No More Mandatory ESG Fees For Dairy Farmers, USDA Rules

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has ended environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives in a dairy program that is funded by dairy farmers.

The update applies to the National Dairy Promotion and Research Program, also known as the Dairy Checkoff Program.

The program funds research, promotion, and nutrition activities aimed at strengthening markets for American dairy.

However, the Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy, set up through the program, has pursued "extensive ESG initiatives, including greenhouse-gas and net-zero targets," the USDA said in a Sept. 17 statement.

"USDA's action ends checkoff support for those ESG-related projects while allowing necessary administrative functions that do not advance such agendas," the department said.

American dairy farmers pay 15 cents per hundredweight on their milk to fund the checkoff program. Importers pay 7.5 cents per hundredweight on dairy products brought into the country.

The checkoff program is partly managed by Dairy Management Inc. (DMI), created by the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board (NDB) and another entity.

In a Sept. 17 letter to NDB Chair Lolly Lesher, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins cited several DMI initiatives deemed to support ESG activities.

This includes the U.S. Dairy Net Zero Initiative, Greener Cattle Initiative, Pathways to Dairy Net Zero, and the mandatory participation of dairy producers in the Farmers Assuring Responsible Management Environmental Stewardship program.

Rollins asked Lesher to submit a list of all projects, both current and planned, that support ESG.

In its recent statement, USDA said the decision to end dairy checkoff funding for ESG initiatives aligns research and promotional activities with the original mission of the checkoffs.

"American dairy producers, cattle ranchers, and farmers pay checkoff assessments so those dollars can build demand for their products - not bankroll radical climate agendas that raise costs and constrain production," Rollins said in the statement.

"Today's action returns the Dairy Checkoff and all research and promotion programs to their core mission: expanding markets and supporting the hardworking men and women who feed this country.

"We will not allow producer dollars to underwrite mandates that put American agriculture at a disadvantage."

'Costly and Unconstitutional Practice'

The Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL) welcomed the USDA decision in a Sept. 17 statement, highlighting that the department's action came after the organization had filed a lawsuit on the matter.

The lawsuit, filed in June against the secretary of agriculture and the NDB, argued that using dairy checkoff funds for ESG initiatives pushed expensive and harmful mandates on the country's farmers.

The USDA and WILL agreed to stay the case while the department finalized its decision to end ESG initiatives in dairy checkoff programs.

"We are very encouraged by this great news today for America's dairy farmers. Following our lawsuit, the Trump administration is ending a costly and unconstitutional practice of forcing dairy farmers to fund radical ESG demands with the 'Dairy Checkoff,'" Rebecca Furdek, WILL deputy counsel, said in the statement.

"This was a clear example of unelected and unaccountable federal bureaucrats in Washington, D.C., pushing an ideological agenda on our hardworking American farmers."

According to WILL, the update could potentially affect more than 20,000 dairy farms.

Meanwhile, in its recent statement, the USDA said it has also directed the Agricultural Marketing Service to ensure that no promotion and research funds in other commodity checkoffs go to advance ESG mandates.

In addition to dairy, there are similar checkoff programs for a wide range of commodities, such as lamb, egg, mango, pork, beef, peanut, and potato.

"American producers substantially fund these checkoff programs through mandatory assessments. Those funds must serve their statutory purpose of strengthening markets for agriculture - not advance misguided external ESG agendas that can raise costs or potentially constrain production," the USDA said.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 16:20

Texas Daycare Faces Lawsuit For Running "Toddler Fight Club"

Forget about Somali daycare fraud for a moment - have you heard about toddler fight club?  A daycare in Fort Worth, TX is facing investigations and litigation after evidence showed staff abusing young children and forcing them to fight each other. 

One mother, Heather Harris, knew something was wrong when she picked up her 4-year-old son at the Arka Montessori Academy of Risinger daycare. He was crying uncontrollably and was covered in bruises.  Employees told the mother her son had fought with another child, but their explanations did not add up, according to a lawsuit filed this month by Harris and her husband, Richard Harris.  She insisted on seeing the classroom's surveillance footage.

The disturbing footage shows staff at the daycare swing a child around like a rag-doll and trying to force him to fight another child. 

Heather and Richard Harris filed the lawsuit September 4th against Arka Risinger Educators LLC, which operates the Fort Worth child care center on West Risinger Road. The case was filed in Tarrant County's 48th District Court.  The lawsuit accuses the center of negligence, gross negligence and failing to properly hire, train and supervise its employees.

The family is seeking more than $1 million in damages, and for a jury to determine the final amount.  The family and their attorney have described the scene as resembling a “child fight club.” State regulators cited the center for related violations (improper discipline, prohibited punishments such as grabbing/pulling, yelling, and failure to intervene).

The incident is only one of many that the daycare has been investigated for by authorities. 

The Texas Health and Human Services Commission's Child Care Regulation Division investigated and cited Arka Montessori for 16 violations since 2024.  Inspections found at least 21 safety deficiencies.   Violations included improper discipline; prohibited punishments, grabbing and pulling; yelling at children, etc.  The most recent investigation also uncovered employee accounts alleging Johnson had previously yelled at children or handled them aggressively.  

It is curious, though, that the daycare is still running after these problems were uncovered by officials.

Parents being more involved in the vetting of staff at these facilities is an obvious issue - checking the company's citation records would be a good start. That said, child care programs have a tendency to limit the vetting of prospective employees in favor of filling positions quickly.  HHS Child Maltreatment counted 2,341 victims of abuse by daycare providers in 2024 alone. 

Be very careful who you leave in charge of your children... but if you do choose the Arka Montessori, here are some 'rules'

The Rules of Toddler Fight Club

• The first rule of Toddler Fight Club: you do not tell Mommy about Toddler Fight Club.

• The second rule of Toddler Fight Club: you DO NOT tell Mommy about Toddler Fight Club.

• If someone cries, goes limp, or needs a diaper change, the fight is over.

• Only two toddlers to a fight. Sharing is still not a thing.

• One fight at a time, fellas. Then snack.

• No shoes, no shirts. Honestly, we weren't wearing them anyway.

• Fights go on as long as they have to, or until nap time, whichever comes first.

• If this is your first day at daycare, you have to fight.

And remember:

"You are not your onesie. You are not the contents of your diaper bag. You are not your light-up sneakers."

"We're a generation raised by screens. We have no Great War, no Great Depression. Our great war is bedtime. Our great depression is that the banana broke in half."

And never forget:

"On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for every goldfish cracker drops to zero."

Sorry, we had to...

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 15:45

Health Agency Looking At Electromagnetic Fields, Wireless Radiation: RFK Jr.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is examining electromagnetic fields, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Sept. 17.

The department issued a request for researchers and others to provide input on the impact of electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure, including radiation from radiofrequencies, as it works to figure out the current evidence base and craft recommendations for schools and families.

Concern about the potential health effects of the exposure "has increased, particularly in relation to children, schools, and long-term cumulative exposure," Kennedy wrote in the document. "At the same time, scientific literature is extensive, technically complex, and not always easy for policymakers or public health stakeholders to interpret."

Evidence submitted by the public can include peer-reviewed studies, government reports, and industry data, he said. Individuals can also share experiences of health effects they believe may be associated with exposure to EMFs. They should outline the types of technology involved, the nature and duration of the exposure, the health effects, and any treatment that was sought.

Comments will be accepted for 30 days, starting on Sept. 21.

Kennedy, a lawyer, has been involved in litigation involving electromagnetic fields, including a case against the Federal Communications Commission that resulted in a court in 2021 finding the agency's decision to keep in place 1996 wireless radiation limits was arbitrary and capricious because it "failed to provide a reasoned explanation for its determination that its guidelines adequately protect against the harmful effects of exposure to radiofrequency radiation unrelated to cancer."

The ruling, from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, ordered the agency to properly review information regarding health effects from exposure to wireless radiation.

Children's Health Defense, which Kennedy once chaired, recently brought a new case challenging the commission's apparent failure to comply with the order.

The agency has until later in September to reply. It states on its website that "no scientific evidence currently establishes a definitive link between wireless device use and cancer or other illnesses."

Kennedy told a conference in Washington on Thursday that filings to the court that led to the win included more than 10,000 studies.

"But there are still gaps in knowledge, and we're filling those," he said. "HHS is reviewing the regulatory landscape, and we will release a report this fall."

The report will include evidence submitted in response to the request for information, Kennedy said.

"We've opened the process to the public because these questions deserve rigorous science, transparency, and answers," he said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 15:10

Iran Submits Conditions For Ending War With US Via Qatar, Awaits Trump Response

Iran has announced Saturday that its Supreme National Security Council has submitted Tehran's conditions for ending the war with the United States via Qatar, and that it awaits the Trump White House's response.

"We are in contact with the Qatari intermediary who conveyed our conditions to Washington to end the war, and we are awaiting a response from President Trump," the supreme council's secretary Mohsen Rezaei said.

Via Asharq Al Awsat

But he warned that if Washington doesn't comply, the Islamic Republic is ready for a "decisive war". The conditions, according to his summary, features--

"the end of the war on all fronts, the release of frozen assets and the end of the naval blockade."

"Iran has become convinced of the need to change its strategy towards Washington following the US withdrawal from the memorandum of understanding," Rezaei explained in words given to Al Jazeera.

He blasted US and Israeli calculations which have been on display through over six months of war as "flawed" and asserted that the conflict was ultimately instigated by Netanyahu.

"Iran knows the US military’s vulnerabilities and is more prepared than ever to counter its air strikes," Rezaei stated. He went on to claim that Iranian forces recently tested an anti-ship missile near a US aircraft carrier.

"Iran is serious about defense," the high-ranking Iranian security official continued, and "if attacked, will strike US bases and Washington's interests in the region with greater force."

Meanwhile, President Trump continues to shut down critics of his "little excursion" in the Middle East, which is increasingly an obvious quagmire from which the US is seeking to extricate itself, by saying that high fuel prices don't matter in light of the potential for Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Interestingly, at the same time Iran continues to seek to demonstrate it is not bent on achieving nuclear weapons status. 

However, Rezaei has also newly teased withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty:

Iran complies with a fatwa issued by the late Ali Khamenei prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons and has not yet decided to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non·Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

"We still adhere to the fatwa of the late supreme leader and have not changed our nuclear doctrine, but we do not know what will happen in the future. We have not yet made a decision to withdraw from the Non·Proliferation Treaty, and this issue depends on Washington’s behavior," said Mohsen Rezaei

However, according to Rezaei, the actions of the United States and Israel allow Iran to withdraw from the treaty.

The Iranian official in the fresh remarks also addressed the escalating Saudi-Yemen war. He described that the Houthis seek a peace settlement with Saudi Arabia, and suggested a broader US-Iran deal would facilitate that.

Why is CENTCOM doing this? Markets say bullshit pic.twitter.com/BdkzCGrFY6

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 19, 2026

Of course, Tehran at the same time knows that the Houthi advance along the Red Sea coast has only increased Iranian leverage over global energy - given the Yemeni rebels are now in easter shooting distance of the vital Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Iranian advisers are likely coordinating with the Shia Ansar Allah movement as it battles the Saudi coalition.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 14:35

The 'Modern-Day Lynching' Hoax... And The Elephant In The Room

Authored by Larry Elder via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 60 Democratic members of Congress signed a letter to sound an alarm: Black Americans are being found hanging, including some from trees, in a wave of possible "modern-day lynchings."

Their letter to the Justice Department and FBI stated, "The series of deaths raise significant suspicion of foul play given the role of lynching in our nation's history." Rep. Ayanna Pressley called it a "national crisis." Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who signed the letter, tweeted about "widespread modern-day lynchings" and "racial terror."

Every suspicious death deserves investigation. But history is not evidence. What are the facts?

• Demartravion "Trey" Reed, 21, was found hanging at Delta State University in Cleveland, Mississippi. The medical examiner found no foul play and ruled the death suicide. His family confirmed that his girlfriend said Reed sent suicidal texts the previous night.

• In Raleigh, North Carolina, a 32-year-old black man was found hanging downtown. Video showed him acting alone with a cord. His mother said he suffered mental health problems.

• Juliana Nzita, 16, was found on church property in Charlotte. Investigators found no defensive wounds, assault, foul play or outside involvement.

• Justice Kai James, 21, was found hanging at a Job Corps center in Albany, Georgia. Authorities called it suicide.

• Kyle Bassinga, 21, was found hanging in Cobb County; video showed him entering the woods alone. Authorities called it suicide.

• To'Nea Nicole Miller, 27, was found hanging in Miami's Gwen Cherry Park. Authorities called it suicide.

• Jerard "Jay" Jackson, 28, was found near a trail in Rothbury, Michigan. Authorities called it suicide.

• Tasia Fortune, 29, was found hanging behind an abandoned house in Jackson, Mississippi. Her death was ruled homicide. Police arrested Jarques Ratliff, a 51-year-old black man who knew her. His motive is unknown.

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, more white Americans than black Americans die by suicide by hanging, and whites do so at a higher per-capita rate. In 2020, 10,573 white Americans and 916 black Americans died by suicide by hanging, strangulation or suffocation. The age-adjusted rates were 4.6 per 100,000 for whites and 2.0 for blacks.

This blacks-being-lynched hysteria recalls the supposed epidemic of racism-driven black church burnings in the 1990s. The mainstream media pushed the narrative of organized white terrorists torching black churches across America. Then-President Bill Clinton created a national task force.

The investigation found no national racist conspiracy. From 1995 through September 1998, authorities investigated 670 arsons, bombings or attempted bombings involving houses of worship. Two hundred twenty-five involved predominantly black churches. Most did not. Of the 106 suspects arrested for arson at black churches, 68 were white, 37 were black, and one was Hispanic.

Some fires were indeed racist crimes, but the sweeping media narrative was false. America had again been stampeded into believing white racism had suddenly and everywhere reared its head.

Meanwhile, these so-called leaders ignore the elephant in the room.

They ignore the epidemic of black children born without a father married to and living with their mother, despite overwhelming evidence that two-parent families improve economic, behavioral and educational outcomes.

They ignore the crisis of K-12 schools in urban America, where most black fourth graders are not proficient in reading or math. Leftist politicians and teacher unions control and defend public urban schools.

They ignore black-on-black crime. In 2023 more than half of the nation's homicide victims were black, and of those victims, nearly 90 percent of the identified offenders were black.

They ignore the effect of illegal immigration on black joblessness and wages. A U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation found that illegal immigration has tended to increase the supply of low-skilled labor and depress both wages and employment rates for low-skilled American workers - a disproportionate number of whom are black men. Research presented to the commission estimated that the immigration influx from 1980 through 2000 reduced the employment rate of low-skilled black men by 8 percentage points. Other research estimated that immigration cost the average American man without a high-school diploma approximately $1,800 annually in reduced wages.

Black truth-tellers who identify these problems are smeared as "Uncle Toms" and "sellouts." The Ku Klux Klan could not have designed a more destructive arrangement.

If black leadership malpractice were a crime, many politicians would be staring at life without the possibility of parole.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 14:00

Houthi Ballistic Missiles Hit Fuel Tanks Near Riyadh Airport In War First

In a historic first of the Yemen conflict, Houthi ballistic missiles rained down on the Saudi capital of Riyadh overnight, triggering rare air raid alerts and a general state of panic among the citizenry.

The international airport may have been targeted, given huge black smoke plumes were seen rising above city’s King Khalid international airport. There looks to have been a significant ground impact just near the major aviation hub.

Source: Reuters

The Guardian reports, "Explosions were heard in the capital as firefighters battled to extinguish the flames of a burning fuel tank emblazoned with the logo of the Saudi oil company Aramco near the city’s King Khalid international airport."

Several rounds of explosions in the capital were heard overnight, with reports of flight cancelations and pauses, with FlightRadar24 citing "major problems" at the airport.

"The Saudi civil defense force sent air raid alerts overnight on Friday to residents of Riyadh, Jeddah and other cities including Yanbu, a major industrial port which is home to critical oil facilities," The Guardian report notes.

No casualties or major damage has been officially reported, and the air alert warnings were soon lifted. There hasn't been much in the way of a specific public assessment of the attack from Saudi authorities.

Smoke rises from fuel storage depot at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia pic.twitter.com/0qjb9oY3lC

— TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) September 19, 2026

Gulf states which have been targeted throughout the Iran conflict have by and large kept quiet on damage as a result of attacks either by Iranian forces or the Houthi rebels in Yemen. In some cases they've persecuted citizens who share photographs with the outside world.

Fierce fighting continues to unfold in Yemen, with regionally based analyst Yasmeen al-Eryani of the Sanaa Center think tank saying the Houthis continue to set the pace of escalation:

"You could see that the Houthis are determining the timelines and the levels of the escalation," al-Eryani said. "So, depending on the current situation, it seems that the Houthis are the ones in control."

The analyst traced the latest tensions back to July, when an Iranian Mahan Air flight resumed direct travel between Tehran and Houthi-controlled Sanaa.

She said tensions escalated with Saudi Arabia after a subsequent Mahan Air flight was prevented from landing in Sanaa, prompting Houthi retaliation and raising fears of a broader confrontation.

But the attacks have gone the other way as well, with the Houthi military on Saturday announcing that the Saudi coalition carried out 26 attacks against areas under the group's control over the prior day. 

Reported images and footage of smoke rising from facilities at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh following overnight ballistic missile attacks by Ansarallah: pic.twitter.com/bTSfEDdlYF

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 19, 2026

The Houthis further tallied that over 300 Saudi attacks had been launched on their positions over just the past week, as cited in the AFP. After the rapid Houthi advance along the Red Sea coast this month, the Iran-aligned group is in better position to potentially block international shipping in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 13:25

Gold At $155,000 An Ounce

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

The fellas over at Zero Hedge put up a Tweet last week that floated a wild monetary thought experiment: they said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could theoretically “buy back” our roughly $40 trillion in U.S. government debt using cash from the Treasury General Account.

There would just be one small detail standing in the way…the government would first have to re-mark its gold reserves to somewhere around $155,000 per ounce.

If you’re not familiar with the concept, it probably sounds outright insane. But the basic idea is actually simple, and once you follow it through to its logical conclusion, things get interesting pretty quickly.

The United States owns roughly 261.5 million ounces of gold, giving it the largest official reserves in the world. Yet the government still carries that gold at a statutory price of just $42.22 per ounce, even though gold trades at about 100x that price.

At $42.22, the government’s entire gold hoard is officially valued at only about $11 billion. In the real world, it’s worth well north of $1 trillion. It’s roughly the equivalent of somebody who bought a Manhattan apartment for $25,000 decades ago insisting that it is still worth $25,000 today because that’s what the original paperwork says.

As a gold bull, naturally, I love the idea of finally marking this gold to market. But the attraction goes well beyond watching the government admit that gold is worth considerably more than $42. Revaluation could once again formally elevate gold’s importance as a monetary asset, something gold investors have been arguing for years could and should happen, while central banks around the world have quietly continued accumulating.

There’s also a practical reason Washington could eventually find the idea appealing. Treasury owns the gold and already has a mechanism for issuing gold certificates against it to the Federal Reserve. In exchange, Treasury can receive a credit to its account at the Fed. In other words, there is already plumbing in place that allows the government to monetize the value of its gold. The problem is that the current system is tied to that absurd $42.22 statutory valuation, meaning Congress would likely need to change the law before a major revaluation could take place.

A reasonable scenario would be relatively straightforward. Congress changes the valuation and brings Treasury’s gold much closer to something resembling reality. At $5,000 per ounce, America’s 261.5 million ounces would be valued at roughly $1.3 trillion. At $10,000, we’re talking about approximately $2.6 trillion.

Suddenly, an asset officially carried at about $11 billion becomes a source of potentially trillions of dollars of balance-sheet capacity. Treasury wouldn’t have to load up trucks at Fort Knox either. The gold could remain exactly where it is while the government monetized some portion of the higher official valuation through the existing certificate framework.

The Federal Reserve has studied official reserve revaluations and looked at examples of governments around the world using gains on reserve assets for fiscal purposes. So while the specific details of how America might do it remain hypothetical, the broader concept isn’t unprecedented.

That’s the relatively sane version. Now for the Fringe version…

Suppose Washington doesn’t revalue gold to $5,000 or $10,000. Suppose policymakers decide they’re going to establish an entirely new official valuation for gold and pick something truly ridiculous. Say $100,000 per ounce. Or roughly $155,000 per ounce, which would put America’s gold reserves at around $40 trillion, roughly enough, on paper, to match the national debt.

At $100,000, America’s roughly 261.5 million ounces of gold would carry an official value of about $26.15 trillion. At $155,000, you’re north of $40 trillion. Now we’re talking about numbers Washington can actually get excited about.

Under a hypothetical legal framework allowing it, Treasury could issue vastly more gold certificates against that revalued gold, with the Federal Reserve crediting Treasury’s account in return. That’s essentially how the existing system already works, except today the certificates are limited by law to the hilariously outdated statutory gold price of $42.22 per ounce.

Taken to its extreme, you eventually arrive at the idea that sent me down this rabbit hole in the first place: could the United States use Fort Knox to retire a gigantic portion, theoretically even something approaching all, of the national debt?

🔥 85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off forever

On paper, you can construct something resembling that scenario. Unfortunately, there’s one small problem: revaluing the gold doesn’t actually create $40 trillion of new wealth. What it could create is an enormous amount of new financing capacity for Treasury.

Changing the official price of an ounce of gold from $42 to $155,000 doesn’t give America more factories, houses, data centers, oil, electricity, farmland or productive capacity. We still have the same economy and the same 261.5 million ounces of gold. We’ve simply assigned an enormously larger number of dollars to that gold and, under this hypothetical framework, allowed Treasury to monetize that higher valuation.

If Treasury then started using that money to retire government debt, the Treasury securities could disappear, but the people and institutions holding them don’t disappear. They get paid. In effect, Washington would be replacing enormous quantities of interest bearing Treasury securities with money and other monetary liabilities in the financial system.

And that’s where the thought experiment gets really interesting, because the ultimate consequence could show up in the value of the dollar itself.

The act of revaluing gold wouldn’t automatically dump $40 trillion into the economy or instantly destroy the dollar. Treasury would first have a vastly larger balance at the Fed. The real monetary event begins as Treasury actually uses that money. And if Washington attempted to deploy tens of trillions of dollars to retire debt without the Federal Reserve somehow offsetting the resulting liquidity, we’re talking about monetary expansion on a scale that has essentially no modern American precedent.

You haven’t made America $40 trillion richer. You’ve potentially created an enormous number of additional dollars and dollar like claims against essentially the same underlying economy.

Maybe the best way to understand $155,000 gold isn’t that Washington has suddenly decided an ounce of yellow metal is magically 30 or 40 times more valuable. Maybe it’s that Washington has decided it now takes vastly more dollars to represent the same ounce of gold.

In other words, the crazy number may tell you as much about the dollar as it does about the gold.

And if trillions upon trillions of those newly available dollars were actually deployed, the adjustment could eventually appear through some combination of a weaker dollar, higher inflation, rising nominal asset prices, higher inflation expectations and changes in interest rates. The exact outcome would depend enormously on how the operation was structured and how aggressively the Federal Reserve responded.

So there’s no magic trick here. You can’t make tens of trillions of dollars of government obligations disappear without something changing somewhere else in the system.

That’s the part of this thought experiment that should make gold investors’ ears perk up. A $155,000 official gold price could be viewed less as Washington declaring that gold suddenly became extraordinarily valuable and more as Washington implicitly acknowledging that the dollar has become extraordinarily cheap relative to gold.

You could potentially retire an enormous amount of nominal Treasury debt this way. You could make the government’s debt statistics look dramatically better. You might even reduce future Treasury interest expense substantially…but you haven’t eliminated the underlying economic cost. You’ve changed the form in which that cost is expressed.

Instead of carrying tens of trillions of dollars of Treasury securities, you’ve potentially pushed some of the adjustment into the monetary system itself, into liquidity, inflation, interest rates, asset prices and, ultimately, the purchasing power of the currency. So the really crazy part of $155,000 gold isn’t necessarily imagining gold becoming that expensive. It’s imagining what a dollar might be worth in a world where Washington decided it needed gold to be worth $155,000.

The debt gets smaller, the number of dollars potentially gets much bigger…and then those dollars may buy a hell of a lot less.

And setting an official government price of $100,000 wouldn’t automatically force gold to trade for $100,000 in New York, London or anywhere else. The government can choose an accounting value, but it can’t simply order the global market to agree with it. The signal, however, would be impossible to ignore.

The country responsible for issuing the world’s primary reserve currency would essentially be announcing that gold was important enough to use as a tool for restructuring its own sovereign balance sheet. Every central bank, sovereign wealth fund and large institutional investor on Earth would immediately have to consider what that meant.

If the United States itself suddenly decided gold deserved a dramatically higher monetary valuation, why wouldn’t other countries want more of it?

And if you’re running a central bank somewhere, the question becomes increasingly uncomfortable: how much of your reserves do you want sitting in dollars and Treasury bonds versus the asset Washington itself just decided was valuable enough to help address its fiscal problems?

A sufficiently large revaluation could amount to an admission that gold never really left the monetary system in the first place. We just spent decades pretending it did while central banks continued stacking bars in vaults.

I’m not predicting $100,000 gold. That number is intentionally ridiculous because it demonstrates how powerful the mechanism becomes when taken to its extreme. But the current $42.22 valuation is arguably even more ridiculous in its own way.

Eventually, Bessent or somebody at Treasury is going to look at 261.5 million ounces of gold, look at the government’s fiscal situation and ask why one of America’s most valuable financial assets is still being carried at a price that hasn’t had anything to do with reality for more than half a century…especially at a time when we are desperate to clean up our fiscal house…

The interesting question isn’t whether $42 makes sense. It clearly doesn’t. The question is what price will Scott Bessent arrive at that does make sense.

More from QTR:

• Cathie Wood’s $10 Trillion SpaceX Fantasy
• This Is Where Things Get Nasty
• Dear Nike, Here’s How You Save Your Company
• Why The AI CEOs Really Want To Be Regulated
• 14 Stocks I’d Watch During A Market Selloff

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and very often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning, meaning if I’m long I could sell or if I’m short I could cover at any time.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 12:50

Cuba Hit With National Power Grid Collapse As Oil Sources Dry Up

Cuba’s power grid collapsed once again this week, this time at a national level, leaving millions of people across the island without electricity.  This is the sixth time since the US cut off fuel sources to the island since January that the national grid has collapsed and it's the most utility shutdown events in the country's recent history.  

Even when Cuba's grid is in operation, only 30% of the population at most receives electricity at any given time.  Many regions stay dark 20 to 30 hours at a stretch. Some provinces have reported 60–90 hours without power. Havana has gone from 4 hours a day early in the year to 18 hours after the fuel cutoff. 

"Protocols are now in place to begin ​the gradual restoration of the system," said Felix Estrada, an ⁠official with Cuba's National Electrical Union (UNE). Power had returned to a handful of ​scattered neighborhoods in Havana by late evening, primarily around hospitals, but much of ​the city remained completely dark.

Many exhausted residents ​of the capital Havana were already without power when the national blackout hit.

"Yesterday I'd gone without ‌power ⁠for 24 hours. They turned the lights on for an hour, and then the grid collapsed," said Frank Lorenzo, a 23-year-old Havana resident.

Around 61% of Cuba's oil was sourced from Venezuela until the US capture of illegitimate president Nicolas Maduro.  Shipments from Mexico have were also scaled back and then cut off.  Russia has sent only one tanker so far this year. 

Reports of a "shadow fleet" of tankers carrying Iranian oil to Cuba have circulated since at least 2020.  Investigations of the seized tanker "Skipper" in 2025 found it had previously carried Iranian oil to Syria and China, then later moved Venezuelan oil on a route tied to Cuba. It confirmed the existence of overlapping Iran–Venezuela–Cuba shipping networks. 

The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has proven incredibly effective in shutting down Iranian oil exports, leaving Iran's clandestine trade partners high and dry.  

The communist regime has operated as a hub for Chinese, Russian and Iranian operations including intel operations in the western hemisphere for decades.  Along with Venezuela, Cuba has represented a hostile eastern foothold in America's backyard.  The Trump Administration also accuses the Cuban government of engaging in propaganda programs in the US, working with far-left organizations (including Antifa and Democratic Socialists) to organize activist subversion to undermine national stability.   

Cuba reports limited negotiations with US officials and has largely pandered to the American media in the hopes of winning favor in the court of public opinion.  As with Iran, Trump seems to be playing the long game, waiting for Cuba to economically falter before entering into serious talks.  The frequency of power outages on the island nation is increasing and it will be difficult for Cuba to continue functioning for much longer. 

Without an industrial base, agriculture and basic utilities, internal breakdown is inevitable.    

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 12:15

They're Telling Us A Major War Is Coming...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The British government is dusting off a classified Cold War manual, telling households to stockpile tins and bottled water at home, while state media is putting out articles debating whether the country is mentally prepared for war.

The classified Government War Book is being rewritten for the first time since 2004. The old document set out how ministries would keep food moving, communications open and government itself functioning if conflict reached the homeland.

After the Cold War it was mothballed. It is now being revived as part of a Home Defence Programme that officials say will align military and civilian responses if international hostilities hit the UK mainland.

?? Britain is dusting off its old "war book" and telling the public to start preparing for the possibility of serious disruption, including keeping canned food and drinking water at home.

The government is updating emergency plans that haven't been revised in decades, while the...

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 18, 2026

Households are being told to prepare to go without power, water or the internet. The Cabinet Office checklist is blunt: bottled water, non-perishable food, essential medicines, a first-aid kit, a torch, a power bank, spare batteries and a wind-up or battery radio.

One official, speaking to the Financial Times, insisted the campaign would not be "duck and cover." "There will be practical advice on things you can do to improve domestic resilience, like having some bottled water and tinned food. It will be common sense, not scaremongering."

Britain Rewrites Its 22-Year-Old 'War Book' as Families Told to Stockpile Food and Waterhttps://t.co/JWfxDnly4H

— Prepper Q ???????????? (@PrepperQ) September 16, 2026

Chief Secretary Darren Jones put the same line to MPs: "The government will do all it can and we are well prepared - but we can all play our part to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe. This campaign will help the public to take small but important steps to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption - be that severe weather or a cyber-attack, which can impact access to power, water, or phone signal."

The plans are due to be stress-tested in 2027 in Exercise Albiston Shadow, described as the largest home defence drill in decades. Ministers and hundreds of officials will role-play a multi-day crisis built around hybrid attacks - cyber disruption, sabotage, interference and disinformation - rather than tanks on Whitehall. Some home-defence work has reportedly been pulled forward from 2035 toward 2030.

Armed Forces minister Louise Sandher-Jones framed the whole package around Moscow: "Russia is not only a threat to NATO's eastern flank. It is a direct threat to the UK homeland and these exercises, together with important measures like updating our 'War Books', will help prepare us to meet that threat, as well as showing the British public how seriously we are taking it."

Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton has said the same in plainer language. "In my 35-year career, this is the most dangerous period that I have known." He added that "the risks and threats to this country are greater than I have known since the Cold War," that Russia is "probing, challenging, testing our defences," and that "society and all of us" may have to accept "different choices and different priorities."

The BBC this week pushed the mood further. "War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?" asked correspondent Allan Little, noting the stockpile drive and the War Book rewrite.

War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready? https://t.co/dARsGoVRpK

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) September 17, 2026

Historian Margaret MacMillan told the BBC: "It's not the tanks you need to worry about. It's the cutting of cables on the ocean floor. It's the hacking into systems on which so many things depend." After 80 years without war on British soil, she said, "I don't think we are psychologically prepared."

Retired general Sir Richard Shirreff compared the moment to "those Edwardian summers before 1914, when there was a lot of talk of war but the notion of actually going to war seemed so far-fetched as to be beyond belief."

That is the version of events ministers talk about in public. It is not the only reading.

In 2025, Professor David Betz of King's College London, a specialist in modern and unconventional war, argued that Whitehall is hardening the homeland against domestic fracture while using a Russian invasion narrative as political cover.

Pointing to the 2025 National Security Strategy line that Britain must "actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat," Betz said the apprehension is real - and internal.

"But that's not external in origin, that's internal, and that has to do with the way our society is now configured, it is highly fractured." He described "low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict."

On the invasion talk he was dismissive: "The fact of the matter is there is a great distance between us and Russia... we are not militarily threatened in a direct way on the ground by any obvious external enemy, even Russia... one of those is not occupying the village green with Russian soldiers, that simply, frankly, is a rather bizarre assertion."

The politically unsayable part, in his account, is this: "What they're concerned about is domestic conflict, and they perfectly understand this, but that's completely politically toxic for them to say so publicly." A citizen force to guard infrastructure sold as anti-Russian preparation is, he said, "a logically absurd proposition, but it is convenient as a pretext."

Elon Musk has also said as much. In a July clash with The Economist's Zanny Minton Beddoes he called civil conflict in Britain a "reckoning" on present trends. "If you have a large and growing, rapidly growing, group of people whose beliefs are antithetical to western beliefs, at some point there will be a reckoning."

Beddoes reached for the "far right" smear. Musk's reply: "No, I support the NORMAL people. What you call the far right FALSELY." He added he is "against rape and murder" and "against the imposition of rules and laws that are contrary to what we've come to accept in the West."

Stockpiles, War Books and "whole of society" drills fit a foreign hybrid-war briefing. They also fit a state that no longer trusts continuity of basic services in a low-trust, factional country - and will not name the policies that produced that state.

The contradiction is sitting in plain sight. Days ago the same government posture that talks up existential danger was still starving the force that would have to fight.

The British Army has been ordered to pause most "non-essential" collective training for UK-based units on standby - live-fire work, armour and Apache drills - because the Ministry of Defence's day-to-day budget cannot cover fuel and ammunition at current prices.

Only a sliver of units are deployed. The surface fleet has shrunk from nearly 50 fighting vessels two decades ago to around 22. Defence spending rises on paper are eaten by inflation. Welfare spending is up 16 per cent in five years. The military is told not to raid health or education to fill a hole of roughly £1.4 billion a year.

A state that cannot fund tank training is not "war-ready." A state that tells families to buy their own water while it funds mass settlement and the welfare load that follows is not serious about cohesion either. Sir Richard wants "different choices and different priorities." Those choices keep landing on tins in the cupboard, not on borders, remigration or a force that can actually fight.

Andrew Michta, a strategic studies professor, told the BBC the deeper problem is mental as much as material: "The UK is also largely disarmed and, most importantly, mentally. There is no readiness for what's happening because the policy elites are not addressing their publics in a way that would honestly state the gravity of the situation."

The gravity they will name is Moscow. The gravity they will not name is a society they helped pull apart, then briefed to stockpile against the dark. The War Book can be rewritten. The cover story writes itself.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 11:40

14-Country Maritime Defense Alliance Moves Closer To Deploying To Red Sea, Gulf Of Aden

With Saudi shipping traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait under unprecedented peril, the recently-launched Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition is moving closer to deploying ships to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announced on Friday. 

Formed on July 30 at the initiative of Saudi Arabia, the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition comprises 14 countries: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia. Representatives from 41 countries and the European Union, including 154 naval officers and officials, attended the coalition's fourth planning meeting at the Saudi Western Fleet Command in Jeddah.

Representatives of the countries that comprise the new Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition at their Friday meeting in Jeddah (Saudi Defense Ministry)

"The Alliance is currently working on integrating capabilities and preparing for operational implementation and actual presence in the maritime operations area, following its achievement of the Initial Operational Capability stage," the Saudi Defense Ministry said. The undertaking is organized to encompass joint training, intelligence-sharing, and -- most importantly -- maritime security operations. The entity is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and commanded by Saudi Major General Abdullah Al-Shahri.

On Friday, Al-Shahri told reporters the coalition will confront any threat to maritime navigation, but it's far from clear how much impact it will have.The fact that the entity has been the topic of very little conversation amid the growing economic crisis emanating from the Middle East suggests the markets are profoundly skeptical.  

“We have seen several maritime security initiatives before, including those established during the piracy crisis in the Gulf of Aden," International Crisis Group's Ahmed Nagi told al Jazeera last month. "While some of these initiatives had political significance, many struggled to translate their objectives into tangible results on the ground." 

The multi-mission combat ship His Majesty King Saud was floated in Wisconsin in December 2025 (SPA photo via Asharq Al-Awsat) 

Saudi Arabia has invited European states to join the coalition, but they've thus far been reluctant to join. In July, diplomats told the New York Times the Europeans wanted to see how the coalition's schemes and expectations developed before taking the plunge. When it formed, the coalition stressed that it was "purely defensive and not targeting any country."

The coalition was formed just 10 days after Yemen's Ansar Allah movement -- nicknamed "the Houthis" after its founder -- announced a blockade on Saudi-related shipping in the Red Sea. Earlier this month, Ansar Allah achieved a stunning battlefield success by seizing the remainder of Yemen's Red Sea coast it hadn't yet controlled -- by the group's claim, some 2,000 square miles. The lightning blitz put well-armed Ansar Allah forces directly beside the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and on islands that command it. Though frequently called "rebels," Ansar Allah -- "Defenders of God" -- controls Yemen's capital and territory in which some 80% of Yemenis live. 

Following the west-coast setback for Ansar Allah's Saudi-backed opponents, the kingdom was dealt another major blow when Iraqi militias struck Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, which had been serving as a critical export outlet amid the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With the pipeline requiring repairs that will take weeks if not months, Saudi Aramco has started cancelling October crude oil delivers to Europe.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 11:05

Los Angeles Ranks Last Among 100 US Metros For Affordability And New Home Construction

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

Des Moines, Iowa, ranked first and Los Angeles ranked last in Realtor.com's inaugural report grading the 100 largest U.S. metros on housing affordability and homebuilding activity.

A sign is posted in front of a home for sale in Los Angeles on July 9, 2026. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The results highlighted how local zoning and permitting can affect housing affordability in different areas.

The real estate platform's first Metro Affordability and Homebuilding Report Card, released on Sept. 16, showed that Des Moines received an "A+" grade with a score of 83.4, the highest among the 100 metros analyzed, reflecting its strong residential construction activity and affordability.

The city has a median listing price of $349,903, with the monthly mortgage payment requiring 27.5 percent of a median-income household's income, below the commonly cited threshold of 30 percent.

The calculation assumed a 10 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 6.5 percent interest rate.

At the other end of the list, Los Angeles received an "F" grade with a score of 12, leaving it at the bottom of the 100-metro ranking.

The median listing price in the city stands at $1.129 million, requiring a household earning the median income to spend 84.4 percent of its income on the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the report said that local housing policies can help explain the gap between the highest- and lowest-performing metro areas in new home construction and affordability.

"Beyond land availability, the biggest difference between the 'A' metros and the 'F' metros is local housing policy, especially related to zoning and permitting," Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said in the report.

"The 'A's share regulatory flexibility and streamlined approval processes, while the 'F's are locked in restrictive land-use frameworks."

The report noted that Des Moines had a permit-to-population ratio of 1.85, meaning the city was issuing permits for new homes at a rate 85 percent higher than the national average relative to its population.

By contrast, Los Angeles' ratio of 0.47 meant that the city was permitting less than half the national average relative to its population.

"The combination of extreme affordability pressure and limited new supply placed it at the bottom of the class," the report noted.

Along with Los Angeles, New York City, Providence, Rhode Island, Honolulu, and Boston also had failing grades.

For example, Berner said, Boston has four times as many pages of zoning law as Austin, Texas, and 79 percent of its land is zoned, compared with just 15 percent in Austin.

Minimum parking mandates apply to 88 percent of land in Boston, while in Austin, the requirement is 37 percent.

Boston also has less land that allows unrestricted accessory dwelling units, limiting the supply of smaller, more affordable homes.

"The contrast between Austin and Boston makes clear that the rules governing what can be built can be just as consequential as the land available to build on," Berner added.

Those top-ranked metros with less restrictive zoning and permitting also include: Raleigh, North Carolina; Columbia, South Carolina; Houston; and Indianapolis.

Regionally, the South and Midwest performed best for both new construction and affordability, while the Northeast and West lagged.

The report attributes the difference to more available and lower-cost land in the South and Midwest, in addition to more flexible zoning and permitting policies.

"Homebuilding and affordability are inseparable, and if we want to improve affordability in a lasting way, we need to build more homes," Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said in the report. "The metros at the top of these rankings show that buyers benefit most when communities pair homes that are attainable for today's local earners with enough new construction to support tomorrow's demand."

In its Sept. 16 report, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the Wells Fargo Housing Market Index found that builder confidence in September hit the lowest level since September 2025.

"Buyer traffic has weakened across much of the country, largely because of rising mortgage rates," NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said in the report.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95 percent for the week ending Sept. 17, up from 6.76 percent the previous week and 6.26 percent a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

Owens also said builders continue to face higher material costs, rising energy prices, and ongoing labor shortages.

NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz added that 42 percent of builders rated current lot availability as "poor," and 38 percent as just "fair."

According to Realtor.com, the United States remains short of more than 4 million homes, putting financial strain on first-time homebuyers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/19/2026 - 10:30