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Minnesota Gov Walz Pardons Convicted Child-Molester, Blocking Deportation

A Minnesota pardon board that includes Gov Tim Walz among its three members has issued a full pardon to a convicted Laotian child-molester, torpedoing Homeland Security's effort to deport him. The 42-year-old convict, Tou Lue Vang, submitted a letter to the board saying he regretted what he did -- and just like that, his criminal record is now clean as a whistle via unanimous decision. 

“Governor Tim Walz's decision to pardon an illegal alien convicted child rapist so he can remain in our country is disgusting,” said DHS spokeswoman Lauren Bis. “These are the criminal illegal aliens he and his Minnesota sanctuary politicians are protecting. Tou Lue Vang lost his legal status following his conviction for repeatedly sexually assaulting a 10-year-old girl." 

Tou Lue Vang told the pardons board that he had regrets about abusing a 10-year-old girl multiple times (DHS photo)

In a storyline that has Democrats co-conspiring to infuse precious "diversity" into the American bloodstream over more than three decades, the Clinton administration granted Vang legal status after he entered the United States as a child in 1994. Now, 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz has  helped guarantee that the convicted sex fiend will be safe from deportation. The two other members of the pardon board are Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and chief Supreme Court justice, Natalie Hudson. 

Vang was convicted of sexually assaulting a girl who was just 10 years old when his perverted acts began. He repeated the offense with the same girl between 2002 and 2004, and pathetically tried to buy her silence with an offer of just $10 in hush money.  After his conviction, an immigration judge ordered his removal way back in 2006.  

When he was first interrogated by police, Vang tried to sweep away the gravity of his actions, telling them, "it is a cultural thing...to marry and have sex with girls as young as 12.” Apparently, Walz -- who's heralded as a reliable "ally" for the LGBTQ crowd and famously put tampons in school-kids' boys rooms -- thinks diversity in sexual morality is our strength too. Vang's pardon quest was bolstered by a supportive letter to the board from his victim, along with many letters of support from the "community."  

Minnesota Gov Tim Walz was part of a unanimous decision that will prevent a child-molester's deportation

Minnesota is on a roll when it comes to helping Laotian criminals stay in America. "In May, the state pardoned Jai Vang, a criminal illegal alien from Laos, whose criminal record includes convictions for robbery, robbery of a business with a gun, and driving under the influence of liquor," noted DHS in a statement. He was ordered to be removed from the United States -- you better sit down for this --  in May 1996. The Clinton administration sprung him loose. Between March 2025 and June 2026, Minnesota has received 67 pardon requests that cite immigration woes as a reason for seeking forgiveness. Across all decisions made this year, the Minnesota board has approved an overwhelming 94% of pardons requested. 

Of course, the Trump administration is in a glass house when it comes to throwing rocks about pardons. Among too many other examples, Trump has stirred the disgust of victims and law-and-order Republicans alike with pardons or commutations of: 

• Joseph Schwartz, a nursing home operator in New York convicted of a $39 million tax fraud scheme
• Eliyahu Weinstein, a real estate developer who'd been convicted of a real estate Ponzi scheme; after his 24-year sentence was commuted after only a few months, he immediately started orchestrating a scheme in which he defrauded people who thought they were investing in deals to get scarce medical supplies to war-torn Ukraine
• Sholam Weiss, who was staring down an 845-year sentence for racketeering, wire fraud, money laundering, and transporting stolen goods, after defrauding an insurer and its elderly policyholders out of £91 million; he fled the US before he could be prosecuted and was convicted in absentia

Its unbelievable Tim Walz pardon a child rapist so he cant be deported pic.twitter.com/flxoIndZhP

— The Highland Knight (@KnightHighland) July 2, 2026 Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:20

What Did He Just Say?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

In a parliamentary clash exposing deep failures in the justice system, Conservative MP Katie Lam confronted the Government over whether grooming gang perpetrators would serve their already lenient prison terms in full.

The minister's reply has sparked widespread fury, highlighting a complacency that victims and the public find utterly unacceptable.

When Lam asked for assurances on full sentences, Justice Minister Jake Richards pointed to prison capacity, stressing the need to ensure serious offenders "serve time at all" amid prison shortages and building programs.

Yesterday, I asked the Government whether grooming gang perpetrators would serve their full sentences.

The minister seemed to say that we should be grateful that these people are serving prison sentences *at all*.

What on earth?! pic.twitter.com/saNOaE5oGJ

— Katie Lam (@Katie_Lam_MP) June 30, 2026

Lam slammed the reaction: "He wouldn't even commit to that. In fact, he seemed to suggest that we should be grateful that these men are serving time in prison at all because of a lack of prison places. What planet are these people living on?"

She continued, "Even if we're facing a shortage of prison places, how can it possibly be the case that grooming gang perpetrators aren't amongst the highest priority offenders...?"

"Ensuring that these vile men serve out their sentences isn't a nice-to-have. It's the bare minimum," Lam stressed.

In a piece for GB News, Lam further outlined "This week, Parliament debated the early release of rapists and child groomers from prison. It's appalling that this subject was even up for discussion."

She continued: "It's clearly true that those who've committed such heinous crimes should, at the very least, serve out their full prison sentences. But under this Government's prison plans, vile criminals like these are having their sentences cut short. They're being allowed back onto the streets after just a few years behind bars."

I confronted Labour on grooming gang rapists being released from prison. Their answer should terrify you – @Katie_Lam_MP https://t.co/kG2CouYjSg

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 1, 2026

"Many Labour MPs still don't seem to have grasped just how horrific these crimes were and just how dangerous the men who committed them are. It's terrifying that people like this are in charge of making decisions about who goes to prison, who stays there, and for how long." Lam further urged.

This comes as one grooming gang ringleader - stripped of British citizenship - faces imminent release but cannot be deported back to Pakistan due to legal loopholes.

The inability to remove such individuals underscores deeper systemic issues with immigration enforcement, citizenship revocation, and prioritizing foreign offenders' "rights" over victim safety and public protection.

??"How can SCUM like that walk the streets?"

Jeremy Kyle EXPLODES at the fact Shabir Ahmed cannot be deported after being convicted for 30 child rape offences and leading the Rochdale rape gang.

"That VILE paedophile should be DEPORTED!"@jkyleofficial pic.twitter.com/MA26qq9AzN

— Talk (@TalkTV) July 1, 2026

Referencing a recent West Yorkshire case, Lam detailed: "In June, twenty perpetrators were convicted of the rape and abuse of three girls... One of the girls was just 12 years old when this gang began to prey on her. Abbas Kaji, one of the offenders, was sentenced to just seven years for rape; Mohammed Ishtiaq Hussain was sentenced to just eight. The idea that these men could be out on the streets even sooner is appalling."

The grooming gangs scandal represents one of Britain's gravest institutional betrayals. These groups terrorized communities across the UK, with authorities often ignoring, suppressing or downplaying the ethnic and cultural patterns - predominantly Pakistani Muslim men targeting white girls - out of fear of racism accusations.

When the UK Parliament were asked if they would vote for an inquiry into the mass rape of little girls

They voted against it

That's how evil these people are
pic.twitter.com/kBLF6zT95O

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) July 1, 2026

Lam has been vocal on the human cost. She referenced survivor Fiona Goddard, who received notice that her abusers - sentenced to 16-20 years in 2019 - could be eligible for early release: "The hard-won justice that she secured in court is being snatched away from her."

Calls for whole-life sentences, proper inquiries without blind spots on race and religion, and accountability for past cover-ups have grown, amplified by independent reports and public pressure.

The priority should be crystal clear: protect British children, enforce real justice, and reject any notion that jailing child rapists is an optional luxury.

Short sentences, early releases, and evasive answers only deepen the sense of betrayal that has defined this scandal for decades.

Britain needs a justice system that puts victims first and deters monsters - not one that debates basic incarceration as if it's a favor.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:00

Europe Capitulates, Sees Iranian Hormuz Fee Collection As 'Inevitable' 

Europe capitulates at a moment Washington and Tehran (and possibly Oman) continue to be directly at odds over how future shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint will be administered.

Bloomberg reports Thursday, "Some leading European powers now accept that ships transiting the vital Strait of Hormuz will have to pay fees to Iran and Oman, according to people familiar with the matter."

"The prospect of some sort of service fee in the aftermath of the US and Israeli war with the Islamic Republic was described as a given by two of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations," the report adds.

At the moment there's an uneasy pause in purported 'positive' indirect negotiations in Qatar, as Iran prepares for a multi-day funeral for the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this weekend - which as it so happens will kick off on July 4th.

A fresh Qatar-Pakistan statement has indicated, "The parties agreed to continue discussions over the coming period, with the next meeting to be scheduled at the earliest possible time following the funeral processions of the former Iranian Supreme Leader." Other sources say a diplomatic 'pause' is on for the moment, as is presumably military action.

Maritime Executive comments that "While a relative calm prevails, shipping is using both the Omani/IMO channel to the south, and a loosely-defined channel through Iranian waters to the north, with inbound and outbound shipping using the same channel, at a rate of about 60 transits a day. The volume of traffic is difficult to judge accurately, given that some ships are still traveling without switching on their AIS systems."

Still, more ships are making it through compared to before the start of Operation Epic Fury and the height of the US-Israel bombing campaign and Iranian retaliation, by all regional accounts. But last month proved this could shift at any moment, given the several tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and US forces, focused on the Hormuz and coastal Iran region.

And now Europe is admitting it will be 'inevitable' that 'some fees' will be collected under the Iran-Oman scheme for passage, Bloomberg confirms.

Oman's official position remains that it will not allow 'tolls' - instead it has opted for ambiguous language of necessary environmental and navigational administrative fees.

So Iran will still tout 'tolls' (at perhaps $2 million per ship) - as Europe seems eager to play along - the Omani/Gulf position seems open to simply calling it something else, or a quibbling over definitions, clearly loose definitions.

It must be remembered that the pre-war situation was one of no fees at all for vessels passing via legally recognized international waters.

Now, the NY Times admits where things are headed: "Iran and U.S.-allied Oman are moving forward with plans to collect payment for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite public American objections, according to an Iranian official and four diplomats with knowledge of the matter."

The NYT fresh reporting says that "If enacted, the plans would be a significant change from the prewar status in the strategic waterway, underscoring how the American-Israeli decision to attack Iran on Feb. 28 has changed the Middle East in far-reaching and unanticipated ways."

HORMUZ SHIPPING STABILIZES, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to an average of 40 vessel crossings per day, according to Kpler.

Shipping rebounded after recent attacks disrupted transit, but uncertainty persists over who controls passage.…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 2, 2026

Iranian leaders have made clear their position that a lasting result of Operation Epic Fury will be that strait passage will never remain the same. Europe is fast capitulating, and will likely call it some kind of necessary 'environmentally safe' passage scheme - as Iran is due to collect untold millions or even billions over time.

The question remains whether Washington will also eventually quietly accede for the sake of peace. For now the two sides are holding to rival absolutist demands, and the alternative will be a return to a fire-fight.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 11:40

America Bets $50 Billion On Coal And Gas Power, More Than China, As Electricity Demand Soars

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

US companies are set to spend some $50 billion on power generation from coal and natural gas this year, the International Energy Agency has said, as quoted by the Financial Times.

This would be the first time in decades that US spending on coal and gas generation would be higher than what China is investing in the two fuels, with the difference at $3 billion.

The surge in spending will come mostly from much stronger demand for gas turbines amid a data center boom in the United States, the FT noted in its report. According to the IEA, US companies placed orders for some 20 GW in gas turbine generation capacity in just the first quarter of this year. Prices for gas turbines, meanwhile, have moved sharply higher on tight supply, contributing to the higher U.S. spending.

The report cited a Rystad Energy analyst as saying prices for gas turbines have gone up from $800 per kWh to over $2,500. In addition to data centers, whose owners have bet on baseload power supply from gas power plants—and coal, too—the expansion of wind and solar has also prompted stronger demand for baseload generation to keep the grid balanced when the weather is unfavorable for either wind or solar generation, or both.

While demand for electricity soars, gas turbine production has been flat over the past few years, resulting in a deficit. Siemens Energy, one of the world’s top three gas turbine makers, reported in February that its gas services business had seen a record quarter in orders, with a total of 102 new turbines in the backlog. As much as 40% of these new orders came from the United States, and another 35% came from Europe.

Even earlier than that, last year, Mitsubishi, the third Big Turbine manufacturer, said it would double its turbine production capacity in response to soaring demand.

The company’s chief executive noted that “We were working towards boosting production capacity by 30%, but that’s not enough to meet growing demand. Fulfilling those orders is our top priority.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 11:20

Vegas Cops Disrupt Alleged Casino Terror Plot By Trans Gunman As Pattern Of Left-Wing Violence Raises Alarms

The nihilistic accelerationism spreading through the revolutionary left is becoming an increasingly visible security threat, as years of radical rhetoric and political demonization by Democrats and their aligned, billionaire-funded NGOs bleed into real-world violence.

The pattern is becoming increasingly troubling and harder to ignore: left-wing extremists are taking their grievances into an active phase, targeting wealthy individuals, capitalism, law enforcement, and right-leaning political figures.

What was once overlooked because the Biden-Harris FBI was too focused on White Catholics is now manifesting in assassination plots, terroristic threats, and planned terror attacks.

The latest incident comes after Las Vegas-area police arrested a 36-year-old transgender suspect who allegedly planned either a mass shooting or a "suicide by cop" incident at a casino, after officers found a large cache of weapons in a stolen vehicle and later at the suspect's home, according to The New York Post.

Watch the moment Las Vegas Police dragged transgender suspect Allison Howlett out of a stolen car and arrested him after he allegedly planned to carry out a mass shooting.

The media wants you to think this alleged wannabe terrorist is a "woman" https://t.co/QCuO92WAUJ pic.twitter.com/Bd2Y8zKnb8

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 1, 2026

More color from Las Vegas Police:

The investigation began after Henderson Police received a 911 call reporting a domestic dispute involving a stolen vehicle that was believed to contain numerous firearms. The caller also reported alarming statements indicating the suspect intended to commit "suicide by cop" and carry out a mass shooting. 

Using vehicle tracking information, Henderson Police officers quickly located the vehicle at Sunset Station. Through calm communication, tactical decision-making, and exceptional restraint, officers safely took the suspect into custody without injury to the public. 

What police found:

• 22 firearms from the stolen vehicle, including multiple handguns, rifles, a fully automatic firearm, suppressors, and hundreds of rounds of ammunition.

• 30 additional firearms from the suspect's residence, including automatic weapons, AR-style rifles equipped with grenade launchers, suppressors, and thousands of rounds of ammunition.

#BREAKING

NEW DETAILS ON TERRORISTIC THREATS

On Saturday, June 27, a coordinated response by the Henderson Police Department, the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, the FBI Las Vegas Field Office, and our regional law enforcement partners helped prevent what… pic.twitter.com/riBI1egGtO

— LVMPD (@LVMPD) June 30, 2026

Authorities said Howlett, a man pretending to be a woman, made violent threats in the past, including a 2024 call in which the suspect allegedly warned of a mass shooting unless federal agents arrested him. 

NEW MEDIA HOAX

This "woman" who allegedly planned a mass shooting in Las Vegas is a MAN.

The fake news media is covering up the truth of TRANS VIOLENCE once again.

You don't hate the media enough https://t.co/QCuO92WAUJ pic.twitter.com/lCRICjXTh2

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 1, 2026

Internet sleuths uncover... 

Anarcho Queer Ideology (Similar flag/insignia to Doll Squad).

Note the surname and use of "Howlett"; individuals involved in this recent threats of a mass casualty event.

All I have for now, more will be released pending on additional information or gaps by public statements pic.twitter.com/bxVUc3NQZQ

— Glow So Bright (@GSB_Actual) July 1, 2026

Weapons used in the recent potential mass casualty event where the heavily armed suspect that was detained by @LVMPD. (Thread)

M2 HB 50 caliber machine gun pic.twitter.com/2U10tllMsu

— Glow So Bright (@GSB_Actual) July 1, 2026

Howlett faces charges including making terroristic threats, assault with a deadly weapon, auto theft, and gun theft. A judge set bail at $500,000.

The Vegas incident follows two separate cases involving left-wing revolutionaries targeting "capitalists" and raises concerns that over a decade or more of the Democratic Party pushing radical rhetoric against Republicans might have unleashed a dangerous wave of revolutionaries.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democratic staffer Teha Delaruelle appeared to have called on supporters to "kill your local Republican."

🚨 WOW: Wisconsin Democrat staffer, Teha Delaruelle is calling on activists to "K*LL YOUR LOCAL REPUBLICAN."

“We’re going to make this the moderate position for the state of Wisconsin”

WTF!? pic.twitter.com/NdFeWaCjMX

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) July 1, 2026

Related:

• Troubling Pattern Of Left-Wing Revolutionaries Targeting "Capitalists" Raises Alarm Over Youth Radicalization

Related:

• America Has A "Transtifa" Problem

• Link Between Transgenderism And Violence In Spotlight

And the radicalization is set to get even deeper as the Democratic Party, which let the socialists and Marxists into their DEI kingdom, is now in a power struggle with socialists.

The party freaked out last week:

More on this: 

"The Democratic establishment is absolutely in retreat. They have no idea what to do," @TomBevanRCP said about Melat Kiros beating a 15-term incumbent in a Colorado primary.

"They've encouraged this younger generation's radicalism and activism, and now they're coming for them." https://t.co/13ONi6fLMK pic.twitter.com/1rmUH6oro3

— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) July 1, 2026

This is not your grandparents' or parents' Democratic Party. This new breed of the party is defined by revolutionaries seeking violence and destruction of the West.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 11:00

Yen Surges As Jittery Traders Expect Imminent Intervention After Japan Reveals New Strategy To Wipe Out Shorts

After plunging to a fresh 40 year low overnight, the yen strengthened sharply against the dollar amid rising speculation that the currency’s continued weakness may prompt a fresh round of intervention by Japan. The yen then surged again after the June US jobs report showed a much weaker picture than expected.

But let's focus on the first, more unexplained move, which took place just after 2:30am ET, when the Yen rose as much as 1% against the greenback, the most since Japan intervened on April 30. The currency later trimmed the advance, before surging again after the jobs report. Earlier in the week, the yen touched its weakest versus the dollar since 1986.

Traders were already on edge ahead of both the jobs report and the Friday holiday in the US, which creates thin trading conditions that would likely amplify the impact of any yen intervention.

“Liquidity is expected to decline during the afternoon session in New York on July 3, when US markets will effectively be closed for the Independence Day holiday,” said Masayuki Nakajima, senior currency strategist at Mizuho Bank in London. “If major US economic releases, such as the employment report, were to come in weaker than expected and trigger broad dollar selling, intervention could become tactically more effective.”

Talking to Bloomberg, Neil Jones, a managing director of FX trading at TJM FX in London, recommended buying bearish dollar-yen options. The strategy assumes “a no-warning scenario this time,” he said. While it’s difficult to time any potential intervention, he’s increasingly convinced that it will ultimately happen.

Meanwhile, South Korean Second Vice Finance Minister Huh Chang said Thursday that the government is closely exchanging information with the US and Japan regarding the forex market.

Reuters earlier reported that Japanese officials may abandon telegraphing their intentions to the market, which would be unlike the case with the intervention that happened on April 30 following ample warnings. Such a new tactic could be effective in wiping out ‌speculative bets against the currency, according to the report.

The shift reflects a more aggressive approach by the MOF, which is using silence as a policy tool to keep traders guessing. That raises the risk of a surprise intervention driven by an accumulation of speculative short-yen bets rather than by the currency crossing a publicly understood threshold, the sources said.

The MOF's approach and the Bank of Japan's continued hawkish rhetoric ​signal a coordinated effort to keep yen bears at bay, two other sources said.

Of course, leaking this trial balloon effectively eliminates the surprise aspect, although it does force speculative shorts to cover ahead of what may come next. 

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, refrained from spelling out the finance ministry’s standard currency stance, including its readiness at any time to take “bold action”, meaning intervention.

The challenge for traders is that Mimura’s silence may on the one hand be an attempt to retain a degree of surprise, but it could also suggests that authorities may be willing to let the currency fall further before acting. Many traders had expected that the BOJ would have intervened as soon as the USDJPY hit 161. Instead the pair rose just shy of 163 before there was a notable move lower. 

Intervention “has always carried an element of surprise,” said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank. “The MOF is seemingly trying a new tactic of reverse psychology, but in practice there isn’t a great deal of difference between what they have been doing in the past.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that options traders are ramping up hedges against sharp yen swings, with a gauge of one-month dollar-yen butterfly spreads at an elevated level, suggesting that concerns about possible market intervention are increasing.

Japan spent a record ¥11.73 trillion ($72.2 billion) in the month through May 27 to prop up the yen, according to Finance Ministry figures. The ministry first stepped into the market on April 30, according to people familiar with the matter, when Japan’s currency was approaching the 161 threshold. The yen initially strengthened, moving to around 155 per dollar, but then steadily and fully retraced those gains even after the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest in 31 years on June 16.

In a note from Goldman FX traders this morning, the bank mused whether the sharp move lower was a "rate check/intervention." It laid out four points from the GS FICC & Equities desk:

• Volume was small. The spike in EBS volumes was "only" ~$1.5bn over the window — trivial versus prior confirmed interventions.
• Looks like a stop-run, not official flow. It coincided with a move back through 162, and there appeared to be a LHS TWAP flow already in the market beforehand — the desk's read is this may have simply triggered stop-losses into an air pocket.
• Range too shallow. Today's spot range was well under previous intervention days, and spot rebounded rather than seeing repeated waves of selling volume pushing lower — atypical of real intervention.
• The one caveat. There are reports that MoF is changing its intervention practice — less telegraphed, more of a "targeted campaign to squeeze speculators."

Separately, the bank also echoed the Reuters report noting that "Japanese officials warning us we won't get a warning by delivering a warning." The desk says this actually increases their comfort running a ratio USDJPY short vs. dollar length elsewhere into today's NFP, especially after the sizeable XXXJPY rally into month-end (they were correct).

Goldman's bottom line: they'd normally chalk this up to a panicky market with spot near the highs (based mainly on the light EBS volume), but point 4 raises the risk that we're in a different intervention regime and can't fully dismiss it.

“The prospect of surprise intervention should make speculators think twice before adding to bearish yen positions,” said Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “However, US yields remain the dominant driver of USD/JPY. If tonight’s US payrolls report surprises to the upside again, the pair could still push to fresh highs despite the risk of intervention.”

The payrolls report surprised to the downside instead, and USDJPY was last trading just under 161, a two-week low. 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 10:30

Core Durable Goods Orders Soar Most In 4 Years

US durable goods orders plummeted 4.5% MoM in May (as expected), dragging orders down 4.3% YoY - the worst annual decline since Nov 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

However, ex-transports, orders rose 1.4% MoM - up for the 14th straight month - with orders soaring over 10% YoY, the strongest annual surge since May 2022...

Adding more confusion, US factory orders fell 1.3% MoM in May (better than the 2.0% MoM decline expected) but dramatically divergent from the 4.8% MoM surge in April (revised down from +5.3%).

...but factory orders ex-transports rose 1.9% MoM - the seventh straight month of gains - with core orders up 9.5% YoY, the best since Sept 2022...

So, take your pick.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 10:24

US Adds Only 57K Jobs, Missing Estimates, As Unemployment Rate Slides On Plunge In Workers

In our jobs preview post we quoted Goldman Delta One head, Rich Privorotsky, who said that "equities marginally want something weaker than consensus: with no forward guidance, hot NFP means hikes in play, which is unfriendly for pockets of equity risk." Well, they got it because moments ago the BLS reported that in June the US added just 57K workers, half the 113K expected, and the worst monthly print since the big February drop. 

Except for an outlier 25K forecast from Citi, the jobs print was below all forecasts, a 2 sigma miss to estimates.

And yes, negative revisions are back:

• April jobs revised down by 31,000, from +179,000 to +148,000
• May jobs revised down by 43,000, from +172,000 to +129,000. 

With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported as Trump once again goes back to using the Biden playbook. 

Remarkably, while the number of payrolls rose by 57K, the number of actually employed people plunged by 507K to 162.264MM, which means the staggering gap between workers and payrolls is once again blowing out.

Just as ominously, the labor force participation rate plunged from 61.8% to 61.5%...

... driven by a massive 720K drop in the civilian labor force, which dropped to 169.358K from over 170 million...

... and which pushed the unemployment rate lower to 4.2% from 4.3%. 

By race, the unemployment rate saw a modest increase in Latino unemployment rate. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates showed little or no change in June for adult men (3.9%), adult women (3.7%), teenagers (14.6%), and people who are White (3.6%), Black (6.6%), Asian (3.9%), or Hispanic (5.2%), although those have increase for 3 months in a row now.

Looking at wages, there were no surprises here, with a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, as expected, resulting in a 3.5% increase in annual hourly earnings, also as expected.

Broken down:

• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $37.64. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.38. 
• The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in June. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged down to 40.3 hours, and overtime edged up to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. 

Some more details from the jobs report:

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in June but is up by 286,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.3 percent of all unemployed people in June. 
• The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 61.5 percent in June, and the employment-population ratio edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 59.0 percent. Both measures changed little over the year after accounting for annual population control adjustments. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.7 million in June. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• In June, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in June. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was essentially unchanged in June at 477,000. 

Taking a look at the composition of jobs,  

• Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in June (+36,000). The industry has added 172,000 jobs since a recent low in October 2025.
• Social assistance added 25,000 jobs in June, primarily in individual and family services (+17,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 16,000 jobs per month.
• In June, employment in health care continued its upward trend (+22,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+38,000). In June, hospitals added 9,000 jobs.
• Leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, reflecting weaker than usual seasonal hiring. Thus far in 2026, employment in the industry has shown little net change.
• Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; other services; and government.

And visually:

Last but not least, the most damning aspect of the jobs report was once again below the surface, where we find that that while part-time jobs dropped by 53K in June to 28.626MM, the number of full-time workers collapsed by a whopping 514K, confirming once again that the composition of the US labor market remains terrible.

This means that the number of full-time jobs is now at levels last seen in 2024...

... and down more than 2.2 million from their Jan 2025 highs.

The market reaction: in response to the weaker than expected number, odds of a rate hike dropped notably...

... although with no forward guidance from the Fed, it will be largely unclear how Warsh will interpret the data.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 10:15

Buried On The 4th Of July: Mediators Pledge Quiet Between US, Iran To Allow For Ayatollah Khamenei's Funeral

President Trump by mid-week told reporters that the "denuclearization of Iran is moving along well" and that "very good meetings" are being held in Doha - even though no direct talks have taken place, but only an exchange of messages via mediators. On Wednesday US officials told regional media that no frozen Iranian funds have been released, nor will they be until Iran complies to what's been laid out in the MoU. And so each side continues accusing the other of refusal to conform with agreed-upon terms.

Regardless, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as Pakistan's foreign ministry also previously released positive assessments of where things stand: "Qatar and Pakistan mediators concluded separate meetings with the US and Iranian negotiators in Doha today, with positive progress made on issues related to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, building on the outcomes of the Lake Lucerne Summit," they said in a joint statement on social media.

Apparently things are going to be 'quiet' heading into the weekend, to allow time for the mass funeral events of slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Crucially the Qatar-Pakistan statement indicated, "The parties agreed to continue discussions over the coming period, with the next meeting to be scheduled at the earliest possible time following the funeral processions of the former Iranian Supreme Leader." Other sources say a diplomatic 'pause' is on for the moment, as is presumably military action.

via AFP

It just so happens that Khamenei, who was targeted and killed at the very opening of Trump's 'Operation Epic Fury' in coordination with Israel, will finally be buried on the 4th of July (or at least that's when the days-long funeral ceremony will start). On the other side of the globe, Americans will at the same time be celebrating the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, ironically enough in terms of timing.

Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has meanwhile on Thursday called for a massive turnout at the late Supreme Leader's funeral. He said "the nation's call for vengeance must ring in the ears of the whole world." Iran "is preparing to experience one of the most significant moments in its history," Ghalibaf emphasized.

"I invite all the Iranian people ... to write a glorious page in the history of Islamic Iran through your presence" at the funeral ceremonies starting Saturday, Ghalibaf continued. According to commentary from the NY Times:

The emblem of the funeral, shared by the official planning body, is Mr. Khamenei’s closed fist alongside a slogan: “We must rise.”

The ceremonies will also be an opportunity for the government to demonstrate Iran’s regional influence and transnational religious ties, with plans for large-scale mourning events in Iraq, which also has a large population of Shiite Muslims and is home to Shiite militias backed by Iran.

Officials cited in CBS have said they expect the ceremonies to draw between 15 and 20 million mourners, which would put it at the largest state funeral in the Islamic Republic's history. The government hopes to unify and rally the populace around the burial of a 'martyr' - at a moment American and Israeli officials have held out hope for a crumbling and fragmentation of support for Tehran leadership.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has also urged Iranians to turn out en masse: "Your widespread presence will be a decisive response to the logic of terrorism, violence, and bullying, and a clear message to the world that the Iranian nation stands united and in solidarity in defending its independence and dignity," he said in a statement Thursday. Authorities have declared an official holiday running for three days starting Saturday.

Khamenei's son and successor, the current Ayatollah Mojtaba - said to have been severely wounded and recovering after a US-Israeli airstrike in the opening days of the war - has still not been seen or directly heard from in public. Whether or not he'll attend public funeral events for his father this weekend remains a huge question mark - one which will be closely watched by foreign intelligence agencies. 

Technically, while the funeral events will start Saturday, Khamenei's body won't be buried until Monday following a casket procession through Tehran's most important streets.

The NY Times further has this interesting commentary revealing how unusual it is for Iran to have delayed a state funeral this long:

It is highly unusual in Muslim culture for burial to be delayed for so long after death. That in itself was an indicator of the extraordinary circumstances that Iran faced after Mr. Khamenei’s death, amid weeks of heavy bombardment. Officials have denied rumors that Mr. Khamenei’s body was temporarily buried and have said that it was kept in accordance with religious requirements.

Now, Iran’s government is seeking to present the funeral as a moment of national unity and shared grief, a display of bureaucratic competence and a show of resistance against an outside enemy. The emblem of the funeral, shared by the official planning body, is Mr. Khamenei’s closed fist alongside a slogan: "We must rise."

The ceremonies will also be an opportunity for the government to demonstrate Iran’s regional influence and transnational religious ties, with plans for large-scale mourning events in Iraq, which also has a large population of Shiite Muslims and is home to Shiite militias backed by Iran.

Government representatives from some 30 countries are expected to be in attendance. Most important among these will be Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. "The Prime Minister, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, will go to Iran and Turkey from 3-5 July ... he will go to Iran first for (the) supreme leader's funeral," foreign ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi told reporters. One the one hand this could be awkward from Washington's point of view, but Pakistan has also been a key top mediator in peace talks alongside Qatar.

Among other notable attendees will be senior Chinese parliamentary official He Wei – who is the vice chairman the Standing Committee of the National’s People Congress, which is the country's top lawmaking body. India's deputy foreign minister Shri Pabitra and the state governor of Bihar, Syed Ata Hasnain, will also attend, the Indian foreign ministry has indicated.

Iranian officials are strongly warning Israel not to commit any military aggression amid the proceedings, and have also called on Washington to 'muzzle' the Israelis. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 09:40

Tesla Reports 480,126 Q2 Deliveries, Crushing Estimates

Tesla delivered a much stronger-than-expected second quarter, reporting 480,126 vehicle deliveries, well ahead of Wall Street forecasts of roughly 406,600. The company also produced 451,758 vehicles during the period, signaling a meaningful improvement after a slow start to the year, according to CNBC.

Shares were volatile on the news and have settled near unchanged into the cash open…

The delivery total marked a sharp increase from 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter and was also significantly higher than the roughly 384,000 deliveries Tesla recorded in the same quarter last year. As has been the case in recent years, the vast majority of deliveries came from the Model 3 and Model Y, which accounted for 467,762 vehicles.

The results provide a boost for Tesla as it looks to regain momentum following consecutive annual declines in vehicle sales. The company has faced growing pressure from intensifying EV competition, the loss of U.S. federal EV tax incentives, and controversy surrounding CEO Elon Musk that has weighed on demand in some markets.

Beyond its automotive business, Tesla’s energy storage segment also posted a strong quarter, deploying 13.5 GWh of battery storage, ahead of analyst expectations of 13.3 GWh and well above the 9.6 GWh deployed in the year-ago period.

Days ago, we pointed out that the market may have been underestimating Tesla’s second-quarter delivery numbers after highlighting a research note from Deutsche Bank that called for a stronger-than-expected quarter. At the time, the firm projected roughly 416,000 deliveries, above the company-compiled consensus and ahead of many estimates on Wall Street.

While Tesla’s actual results ended up blowing even that forecast out of the water, the broader takeaway was the same: expectations appeared too low heading into the report. Deutsche Bank argued that improving international demand, particularly in Europe, was driving a meaningful rebound after a weak first quarter, and the company ultimately delivered an even larger upside surprise than many investors anticipated.

With 480,126 deliveries versus consensus expectations near 406,000, Tesla didn’t just beat estimates, it exceeded them by a massive margin. The results suggest demand was far stronger than the market had priced in and should help ease concerns that had weighed on the stock in recent months.

Whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery remains to be seen, but for now, Tesla has delivered one of the biggest positive surprises of the earnings season…

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 09:30

Egg Producers Reach State And Federal Settlement Over Price-Fixing Allegations

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Three major egg producers have reached a $3.3 million settlement to resolve allegations of price fixing after being sued by the Justice Department (DOJ) and 17 U.S. states’ Attorneys General.

Just the News reports that the complaint—filed in Iowa’s Northern District Court—contends that the defendants conspired to artificially inflate the daily price quotations of market reporting company Urner Barry Publications.

According to the DOJ Office of Public Affairs, a civil lawsuit was filed against Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (Cal-Maine); Hickman’s Egg Ranch Inc. (Hickman’s); and Centrum Valley Holdings LLC, Versova Holdings LLC, and Versova Management Cooperative (Versova) for unlawful coordinated manipulation of egg prices.

The Attorneys General of Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Wisconsin joined the Department in the complaint and proposed settlements.

“No product more quintessentially represents affordability than the price Americans pay for eggs,” said @ASGWoodward. “These actions prove this Department’s continued commitment to protecting competition and providing real relief for everyday Americans’ pocketbooks.” https://t.co/BU8Hm5Q9HF

— U.S. Department of Justice (@TheJusticeDept) June 30, 2026

The DOJ also filed proposed settlements that will, if approved by the court, prevent these companies from engaging in such coordinated manipulation in the future.

According to the complaint, the defendants conspired to inflate Urner Barry’s price quotations by agreeing to: submit a lot of bids, submit bids that were unlikely to result in executed trades, cause several defendants to bid to alert Urner Barry that market participants needed to buy eggs and deliver trades at premium prices.

The defendants, along with other egg producers, also bid to obtain eggs on spot markets, including the Egg Clearinghouse, an exchange that helps determine and establish the market value for eggs and egg products.

In the press release, Former Acting Assistant Attorney General Omeed A. Assefi of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division affirmed:

“Food affordability is a top priority of the Antitrust Division. These settlements resolve years of conduct that dragged on Americans’ finances and their everyday lives. I thank and recognize the dedicated work of the Division’s talented staff and state partners.”

Under the terms of the settlement, producers will pay a combined $3.3 million in monetary recovery to the participating states.

Meanwhile, CBS News reports that, in a unique deal, the companies must donate 53 million eggs to food banks and community organizations in the affected states.

The companies are also barred from communicating with competitors about pricing strategies, bids, or market information for five years, according to the DOJ press release.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 09:20

Initial Jobless Claims Continue To Signal No Labor Market Stress

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time dipped last week to 215k (218k exp), continuing to show labor market resilience in the face of slumping sentiment.

...basically unchanged in five years.

Continuing claims ticked higher but remains well off cycle highs from last fall...

So once again, claims data shows no signs of the pain that sentiment surveys suggest...

...even though payrolls data suggests deterioration.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 08:53

Ukrainian Capital Suffers 'Night Of Hell' In 11-Hour Russian Assault That Kills At Least 20

Just hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of an impending "massive" escalation by Moscow, the skies over the Ukrainian capital erupted in a flurry of inbound drone and missile activity.

At least 20 people were killed and several dozen injured in the overnight multi-wave Russian missile and drone assault that overwhelmed Kiev's air defense umbrella. The sheer scale of the bombardment indicates a significant ramping up of Moscow's retaliation strategy, after Russian territory has in turn suffered many weeks - even months - of significant drone attacks particularly targeting oil refineries and energy infrastructure.

The capital's Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that six floors of an apartment building had partially collapsed after a direct hit from a Russian projectile. "Kyiv is under attack from ballistic missiles and UAVs," Klitschko wrote on Telegram in the night hours.

via Associated Press

Officials also noted that at least two children were among the injured and three dozen locations across the city had been damaged in the attacks, according to AFP. Klitschko also said it marked the "most massive" attack night on the capital to date. BBC explains:

Although previous attacks have killed more people, this latest barrage deployed the largest number of weapons on the capital and hit locations over a very wide area of Kyiv.

Several neighbourhoods were evacuated as strikes rocked buildings throughout the city, hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia was preparing an attack.

The Ukrainian Air Force released a fiery Telegram statement in the wake of the assault: "We express our condolences to all the victims, families who lost their relatives and loved ones in this terrible terrorist attack. We will take revenge!" the statement said.

Residents says that such attacks are becoming more intense, cover a wider area of the capital region, and last longer. "The attack on Kyiv lasted more than 11 hours and came in several waves starting with a drone strike on Kyiv's historic quarter, setting off a fire in a hotel in the city center," BBC additionally reports.

WATCH: Massive overnight Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv.

Raw footage shows explosions, air-defense interceptions, and fires across the capital as residential buildings were struck.

Zelensky cut short his visit to Ireland in the wake of the attack. pic.twitter.com/pSrR578is8

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 2, 2026

NBC separately details: 

Damage was recorded in 30 locations across the city, mainly residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, said Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said 20 residential buildings were damaged across the city. The Emergency Service says it deployed nearly 500 personnel and 100 units of specialized vehicles, including a helicopter, to deal with the aftermath of the attack.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on Ukraine’s allies to strengthen the country’s air defenses following what he described as a “night of horror” in Kyiv, urging partners not to delay decisions on supplying air defense systems and missiles. Writing on X, Sybiha said the death toll after the attack may rise as the rescue teams continued their work.

As for numbers of projectiles, Ukraine's air force tallied that Russia launched 74 missiles and 496 drones during the attack. This is an immense amount to be concentrated on the capital alone. The military claimed its air defense units downed most of those, but still 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones struck 33 locations - per the statement.

A raw, high-quality footage via DRM News of last night's Russian large-scale aerial attack on Kyiv.

The activity of Ukrainian air defenses, impacts of Russian drones and missiles, as well as fires starting in the city can be seen, among other things.

According to the Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/eiGdJczhSg

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) July 2, 2026

Neighboring Poland indicated that the attack was so large that it briefly scrambled fighter jets on Thursday as a preventive measure to monitor any potential air space violations for inbound missiles, drones, or interceptors. It said the warplanes returned to base once it became clear there were no violations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 08:40

Futures On Edge As Sliding Chips Spark Another Korea Crash, Payrolls On Deck

US equity futures have reversed all overnight losses which were driven by the latest crash in South Korean stocks, which plunged 8% and closed at LOD, driven by a plunge in memory stocks. Still, the Nasdaq is still lower with tech stocks depressed on news that Sam Altman's OpenAI is seeking to offer a 5% stake to Trump in what is clearly an attempt to incentivize the government to backstop the company whose revenues are clearly below budget. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% after semiconductors and high beta momentum led Wall Street lower in the previous session; the latest bout of tech volatility entered a second day, with chipmakers in South Korea bearing the brunt of the selling. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics lost a combined $290 billion in value to drive a 7.9% slump in South Korea’s Kospi index. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, with technology among only two of the 20 index sectors to lose ground. Elsewhere, the dollar fell, as USDJPY suffered a sudden plunge on intervention concerns, and US 10-year yields +2bps at 4.50%, WTI -1.49% @ $67.55. All eyes on NFP later this AM (consensus at +113k, see our preview) and subsequent Fed pricing (market currently pricing in ~30% chance of a hike at July meeting) following yesterday’s Momentum drawdown (High Beta Momo finished -9.62%, second worst day YTD, top 5 worst days over last 5 years). So far the spillover from overnight price action has been limited, with KOSPI -7.89%, NKY -2.5% as yesterday’s META headlines continue to drive anxiety around overcapacity fears. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixe: ( Microsoft +0.7%, Apple +0.4%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +0.3%, Alphabet -0.6%, Nvidia -0.5%)

• Cloud and other AI infrastructure stocks (CRWV -1.1%, IREN -2.2%, AMD -1.4%, INTC -1.3%) are extending losses as Meta’s plan to develop a business that would sell access to AI computing power raised worries about overcapacity.
• Adobe Inc. shares (ADBE) are up 2.8% after HSBC upgraded the software company to buy from hold.
• Chevron Corp. shares (CVX) rise 0.6% after Wolfe Research raised its recommendation on the energy company to outperform from peerperform as it sees free cash flow driving growth.
• Honeywell Aerospace Inc. shares (HONA) are up 0.3% after BMO Capital Markets started coverage on the company with an outperform rating and $276 price target.
• Infleqtion Inc. (INFQ) rises 3.7% after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage with a recommendation of buy.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. shares (PLTR) rise 3.7% after DA Davidson & Co raised its recommendation to buy from neutral as it sees the technology company having a competitive advantage to artificial intelligence companies that have been at odds with the US government.
• Waystar Holding Corp. shares (WAY) are up 1.9% after KeyBanc Capital Markets started coverage on the healthcare software company with an overweight rating and $30 price target.

The frequent swings in the market’s biggest drivers come as traders react to any sign that a near-parabolic rally in chipmakers, the biggest beneficiaries of the vast outlays on AI infrastructure, has run too far (spoiler alert: it has). In the latest instance, Meta’s plan to sell computing power raised questions about a glut of capacity. The Kospi, the poster child retail-driven momentum chasing idiocy and the AI trade, fell 7.9% after memory heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix were rattled by news that Apple is in talks to buy chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers on a Pentagon blacklist to help reduce the impact of a global memory shortage. 

Meanwhile, investors are rotating into laggards that stand to benefit from a strengthening economic outlook just as money-market bets on tighter monetary policy recede. Consumer-orientated stocks led gains in Europe on Thursday, tracking Wednesday’s US moves when a majority of S&P 500 stocks advanced. By contrast, memory, storage and processing names were again among the biggest decliners in US premarket trading. Sandisk, Seagate and Dell were all down 3% or more.

“The market recognizes the risks associated with a potential overvaluation in the tech sector,” said Guillermo Hernández Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “Whether a major shift away from the tech sector is underway will become apparent by the next round of quarterly earnings reports.”

Investors will also focus on the US jobs report at the end of a holiday-shortened week. The data will offer fresh clues on the path for interest rates after comments Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh dampened speculation of a hike this year.

For jobs report at 8:30am New York time, Bloomberg’s crowd-sourced whisper number for nonfarm payrolls change is 138k vs median economist estimate of 113k; unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.Bloomberg Economics anticipates a hot payrolls report will show the US economy added 200,000 jobs in June. That would be a third straight extremely strong print, with the three-month average job increase likely clocking in at 183,000.  

“A strong payrolls report — particularly if we see healthy gains in hourly wages — would likely increase market bets on rate hikes this year,” according to Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong.

Our full preview is here; in its preview Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 130k in June, above consensus of +115k. On the positive side, the bank estimates that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June. Additionally, June payrolls have exhibited a consistent positive bias in initial prints over the last decade which has been particularly pronounced in state and local government education services payrolls. On the negative side, GS expects a 10k decline in government payrolls outside of state and local government educational services. 

The options market is pricing in a roughly 0.5% move for the S&P 500 in response to NFPs, according to Bloomberg calculations, broadly in line with last month’s muted expectations despite the June release triggering a 2.6% selloff.

European stocks rose as investors looked for alternatives to expensive tech shares in more defensive sectors. Technology significantly underperforms, while personal care, food and beverage stocks outperform. The Stoxx 600 index rises 0.5% to 642.64 with 422 members up, 167 down and 11 unchanged. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Sodexo rises as much as 10%, the most since April 2023, after the French food services company reported third-quarter results ahead of expectations and raised its organic revenue forecast for the full year
• CTS Eventim rises as much as 6.1% after Oddo BHF upgrades the stock to outperform, saying its de-rating of about 50% over the past year leaves the live events company trading at deeply discounted multiples and an appealing valuation
• SKF shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since June 15, after the Swedish ball-bearings group signed an agreement with Leaderdrive to establish a venture in China
• Carrefour shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in just under a year, after UBS upgrades the French grocer to buy from neutral, calling the stock “too cheap to ignore”
• Amplifon rises as much as 5.5% in Milan trading after Equita raised the Italian hearing-aid company’s stock to buy from hold, citing its competitive position, visible synergies and the discount at which the shares trade
• Cloetta shares rise as much as 8.5%, the most since early May, after the Swedish confectioner announced a deal with US grocery chain DeCicco to introduce Swedish pick-and-mix-style candy in its New York stores
• Hemnet gains as much as 13%, the most in almost two years, as JPMorgan flagged improving June listings data. Today regulatory filings also showed Hemnet’s third-biggest shareholder, GCQ Funds Management, has increased its stake
• Currys shares drop as much as 5.3% after the electronics and appliance retailer signaled it’s comfortable with the analyst consensus, which may signal limited upside to estimates for the time being
• Baltic Classifieds Group shares drop as much as 12%, the most in seven months, after the online classifieds operator issued weaker-than-expected fiscal 2027 guidance and reported a slight revenue miss for 2026
• European semiconductor stocks fall, tracking an overnight selloff in US peers 

Asian stocks headed for the lowest close in three weeks as concerns over excess AI capacity and intensifying competition sparked a selloff in high-flying chip shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.4%, with South Korea’s Kospi tumbling almost 8% to lead regional declines. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost at least 9% each to be the biggest drags on the regional benchmark, while TSMC and Japan’s Kioxia also slumped. The moves followed losses in US semiconductor shares that saw Micron Technology and Sandisk plunge more than 10%. The selloff came as Meta Platforms’s reported plans to build a cloud infrastructure business that would sell access to AI computing power and models fueled concern the company may have overbuilt its capacity. Separately, Apple is in talks to buy chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers, according to people familiar with the matter, which would hurt South Korean manufacturers. The iPhone maker late last month raised prices of all Macs, iPads, home devices and the Vision Pro, stoking concern that rising costs may start to curb demand and spurring a broad rout in global tech shares at the time. Equities in India and Southeast Asia bucked the regional selloff while stocks in Hong Kong also rose on return from a public holiday.

In FX, USD/JPY has been on the move with the pair down around 130 pips. The move was set in motion by comments from South Korea that is was closely communicating with the US and Japan on FX intervention, before experiencing a much steeper decline. Reporting via Reuters notes that Japan could shift to surprise Yen intervention tactics. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%, enabling EUR/USD to return to a 1.14 handle.

In rates, treasuries are under slight pressure ahead of the release of June employment data with potential to alter the outlook for a Fed rate hike at the end of the month. US long-end yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper with front-end tenors little changed, steepening 2s10s spread by 2bp. 10-year is near 4.49%, 1.4bp higher on the day, with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 3bp and 4bp. About 8bp of Fed tightening is priced in for the July 29 policy decision, 35bp by the end of the year. European benchmarks are being sold to a greater extent with 10 year yields in Germany and the UK up 4 basis points each.  With US markets closed Friday, jobs report is being released a day earlier than normal, and Sifma recommended 2pm close for cash trading.

In commodities, WTI crude is lower for a third consecutive day, back below $68 a barrel, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve and there are signs of progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran. Precious metals are building on yesterday’s gains with spot gold and silver up 1% and 1.4% respectively. Bitcoin adds 0.7%. 

Today's US economic data calendar also include weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and May factory orders with durable goods orders revision (10am), Fed speaker slate includes Daly at 7:45am in moderated discussion at a Banco de España conference.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI has discussed giving a 5% stake to the US government as the $852bn AI start-up seeks to clear political obstacles by securing financial buy-in from the Trump administration. FT
• The definition of circular funding: Nvidia is using its balance sheet to help more companies buy its expensive AI chips: The Information 
• Iran’s struggling to find buyers for its oil before a 60-day window granted by the US expires. More than 58 million barrels of its crude and condensate was on the water as of July 1, but over 90% has no clear destination. BBG
• At least five supertankers carrying a total 10 million barrels ‌of Saudi oil loaded from Ras Tanura have exited the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi Aramco switching to spot pricing to speed sales in Asia, according to trade sources and shipping data. RTRS
• Sales of cars, air conditioners and TVs fell rapidly in China last month as the impact of government subsidies faded, raising pressure on policymakers to stimulate the economy. Nikkei
• Power demand across New York is expected to peak today as heat strains the grid ahead of the July 4 weekend. The New York Independent System Operator forecast demand of 32,410 MW, just shy of the record set in July 2013. BBG
• The yen climbed amid speculation of a fresh round of interventions. Japan may shift to surprise tactics to wipe out ‌speculative positions. BBG
• Russian missiles and drones pounded Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities overnight and early Thursday morning, killing at least 17 people and wounding more than 80, according to Ukrainian officials. WSJ
• US nonfarm payrolls probably rose 113,000 in June, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.3%, consensus shows. Bloomberg Economics predicts a 200,000 gain, helped in part by the World Cup and bolstering expectations for rate hikes this year. BBG
• The US government is in advanced talks with AI companies to create voluntary standards for the release of new models after intervening in the rollout of state of the art tools from Anthropic and OpenAI. FT
• The Trump administration is reportedly ready to launch "Trump Accounts" next week, but not allow firms to host children's savings accounts on their own systems, Semafor reported citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed but with the major indices predominantly in the red following the tech-related losses on Wall St, while participants also brace for the incoming Non-Farm Payrolls report in a holiday-shortened trading week stateside. ASX 200 was rangebound as strength in the top-weighted financial sector was offset by losses in the utilities, tech, energy and consumer sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Australian trade data. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open amid tech selling and recent upside in yields, although the index then staged a partial rebound, before selling resumed later in the session. KOSPI slumped amid the pressure in memory chip stocks, and triggered a sidecar in early trade. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the mainland conforming to the broad risk-off mood, while the Hong Kong benchmark bucked the trend amid strength in local tech, biopharmaceutical and auto names on return from the holiday closure.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Government Panellist Nagahama said that the BoJ should raise rates once every six months; this would not hurt domestic investment.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) initially started Thursday's trade on a softer footing but have climbed off their lows, with all indices in the green, outside of the AEX (-0.3%). Sentiment overnight was on the softer side, following another tech selloff in South Korean stocks (Samsung -9.1%, SK Hynix -14.6%) after Meta plans to sell excess AI compute to build a cloud business, raising questions over excess in AI capacity. However, with Europe lacking the big AI giants, this seems to support the Euro area. European sectors point to a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care (+2.1%) tops the sector pile, followed by Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+2.0%) and Health Care (+1.5%). As expected, Technology (-1.9%) is the clear sector laggard and the only sector in the red.

Top European News

• Germany's ruling coalition unveiled a package of reforms, including EUR 10bln in annual tax relief for lower-income earners, changes to the pension system and building more affordable housing.
• Germany's VDMA reported May industrial orders -1% Y/Y, driven by weak domestic demand and a general decline across the EZ.

FX

• DXY trades lower this morning, and trades at the bottom end of a 100.95 to 101.43 range. Pressure which comes after the lack of hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh at Wednesday's policy panel, and with the move further exacerbated by a hefty move in the JPY this morning.
• On that front, this morning saw large and immediate selling pressure in USD/JPY, where the pair fell from 162.20 to a trough of 161.12. The pair then pared back about a third of that move, stabilising around 161.80, before then taking another beating towards the session low of 160.89 – now trading at levels not seen since 18 June.
• Given the sheer size of the move lower, it does appear to be the case that this is potentially intervention, rather than a rate check. Details of whether they enacted a form of intervention will be released in the monthly release, which is released on the last business day of every month.
• The move comes after Reuters reported that Japan would abandon its habit of warning the markets of intervention. The aim of this is to squeeze speculators and increase the cost of betting against the JPY.
• The potential intervention comes ahead of today’s NFP report; a USD positive report could see some of the “potential intervention” move be pared back. To preview the report in brief, US non-farm payrolls for June are expected to print 110K (prev. 172K), with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.3%.
• Other G10s are stronger against the USD this morning. JPY unsurprisingly outperforms, followed by the GBP and CHF. For the latter, Switzerland reported in-line/cooler-than-expected inflation metrics, which broadly play in favour of keeping rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks trade on a softer footing ahead of the US payrolls data while Germany announces a new set of reforms.
• USTs (-3 ticks) are lower by a handful of ticks, trading just shy of Wednesday's low of 109-12+. Looking ahead to the June jobs report; NFP expected at 110K (prev. 172K), unemployment to hold steady at 4.3%, average hourly earnings Y/Y expected at 3.5% (prev. 3.4%). In terms of technical levels, downside levels include 109-16 (prior week's low), 108-27 (key support level) and 108-10 (worst low seen due to Iran conflict). 110-00+ is the key level to the upside.
• Bunds (-38 ticks), unlike USTs, have extended on Wednesday's trough, currently trading at the lower end of its 126.78-127.06 range. German Chancellor Merz's coalition unveiled a package of reforms earlier, which included EUR 10bln in annual tax relief for lower-income earners, changes to the pension system and building more affordable housing. The overall aim is to restore competitiveness in Europe's biggest economy. Although the move lower in German debt has not been excessive, it could be a potential reason for the downside in German debt, as it brings growth back into the economy.
• OATs (-34 ticks) follow their German counterpart. In the upcoming months, French debt will be more in focus as the Presidential elections near. Political uncertainty continues to remain. More recently, the Green Party announced that it would put forward a motion of no confidence over the government's handling of the recent heat wave. However, this attempt to bring down PM Lecornuʼs government is likely to fail without the support of other opposition parties. The preference for German debt over OATs is clearly shown in the spread, currently trading at 75bps, up from the 58bps seen at the start of June.
• The UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.31x (prev. 3.63x), average yield 4.934% (prev. 4.975%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• France sells EUR 14.0bln vs exp. EUR 12.5-14bln 1.25% 2036, 3.70% 2036, 4.50% 2041 and 4.10% 2046 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.958bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.60% 2031, 3.25% 2034 and 3.40% 2036 Bono and EUR 0.695bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono.
• Japan sells JPY 1.96tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.13x (prev. 3.53x), average yield 2.729% (prev. 2.649%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are on the backfoot, after mediators suggested positive progress was made in the US-Iran indirect conversation. Conversely, gas benchmarks continue to rise with Dutch TTF above EUR 44/MWh as the European forecast points to renewed heat.
• Brent down to a USD 70.38/bbl base, though it has reverted back towards the USD 71.00/bbl but remains in the red. The mentioned base is the lowest print since the end of February, when USD 70.20/bbl printed for the September contract. ,
• For today, US NFP will dominate the macro narrative, with a full Newsquawk preview available. Specifically for energy, we await any further update from the US-Iran talks, and while the mediator-led exchange has now concluded, we could still see updates as the parties agreed to continue talks over the “coming period”.
• Spot gold at a USD 4080/oz peak. In a recovery from the move below USD 4k/oz seen in the last two sessions. Upside today is a function of a weaker USD and relatively steady UST action. As above, impetus will come from the US NFP report.
• Base peers are under pressure, despite the constructive European risk tone and the mentioned USD pressure. As the complex follows the downbeat performance seen in mainland China overnight, and despite Hong Kong seeing strength on its holiday return.
• US President Trump posted that oil prices are plummeting fast and gas prices at the pump are dropping too, but not as fast as they should be, while he announced the Freedom Fuel Network will be lowering gas prices at 25 “FREEDOM FUEL” stations across the Greater Philadelphia Area.
• Venezuela's oil production was expected to recover to 1.1mln-1.2mln BPD by the end of Q2 2026 as the US expands export authorisations, allowing more companies to transport and market Venezuelan crude
• Saudi Aramco has reportedly increased its exports from the Ras Tanura port and have shifted to spot sales, according to sources.
• Hengli Petrochemical has reportedly cancelled its recent purchases of West African and Middle East oil purchases and also cut refinery operations, according to Reuters sources.
• Dubai spot crude's discount to swaps widened to more than USD 4.00/bbl, the largest gap since May 2020, according to Refinitiv data.
• UBS cuts its end-2026 gold forecast to USD 5k/oz, due to elevated interest rates.

Trade

• China's MOFCOM said China and the EU agreed to up to two annual ministerial trade talks and have invited EU's Trade Commissioner Sefcovic to visit in the Fall.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US official said the US is hopeful that Iran will come to the table to negotiate seriously, but is prepared to walk away if they do not, according to a New York Post reporter on X
• US has informed Iran that changing the status quo around the Strait of Hormuz would be a violation of the current understanding and would be unacceptable, according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Iran said it will respond to US interventions in the Strait of Hormuz, Fars reported.
• Qatar's Foreign Ministry said Qatar and Pakistan mediators concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha, while it added that positive progress was made on issues related to the Islamabad MoU. It also stated that the parties agreed to continue discussion over the coming period, with the next meeting to be scheduled at the earliest possible time following the funeral processions of the former Iranian supreme leader.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the claim that inspectors of the IAEA have access to the sites that were bombed is false, while he added that under no circumstances will access be granted to sites that were bombed and damaged.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Doha talks focused on US violations of the MoU and frozen assets. Gharibabadi separately commented that the Strait of Hormuz is defined under Iran's command, not CENTCOM, as well as stated that regional security is ensured by the end of interference and the departure of the US from the region, respect for the sovereignty of countries and acceptance of new geopolitical realities, not under the military umbrella of the US.
• Senior source told Al-Hadath that Iran is allowed to purchase American agricultural products using a portion of its frozen funds, but noted that no cash payments are to be dispersed to Iran
• Lebanon's PM said negotiations with Israel lack a deal framework, and the government seeks a timeline for Israel's withdrawal and insists on exclusive state control of weapons
• Israeli drones struck Al-Dir in southern Lebanon and Israeli shelling was also reported on the outskirts of Quneitra in Syria, while Israeli forces conducted night raids in Jenin and Ramallah, in the West Bank.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Armed Forces said it hit a Kyiv plant that produces control systems for specific missiles, RIA reported.
• Russian Defence Ministry said it shot down 327 Ukrainian drones overnight.
• Air defence systems were reportedly repelling a Russian drone attack on Kyiv, while it was separately reported that multiple explosions were heard in Ukraine's capital which was under ballistic missile attack.
• Ukrainian military said it has struck the Kstovo oil refinery in Russia.

Geopolitics: Other

• China warned two Japanese Coast Guard survey vessels to stop conducting maritime surveys in the disputed East China Sea, prompting Japan to lodge a formal diplomatic protest.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jun Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 112.5k, prior 172k
• 8:30 am: United States Jun Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3k, prior 7k
• 8:30 am: United States Jun Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Jun 27 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 218k, prior 215k
• 8:30 am: United States Jun 20 Continuing Claims, est. 1820k, prior 1821k
• 9:30 am: Canada Jun S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI, prior 52.9
• 10:00 am: United States May Factory Orders, est. -2%, prior 4.8%
• 10:00 am: United States May F Durable Goods Orders, est. -4.5%, prior -4.5%
• 10:00 am: United States May F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have had a rocky start so far to Q3, with global bonds and equities losing ground over the last 24 hours. The main culprit has been another slide in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index down -6.27%. And those losses have continued overnight, with South Korea’s KOSPI down -5.06% this morning. Moreover, an underwhelming batch of US data hasn’t helped matters, with the S&P 500 (-0.22%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.38%) both pulling back as well yesterday.

Yet despite those negative headlines, the performance actually hasn’t been so bad if you look beyond the tech slump. Indeed, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.24%) hit a new record as markets dialled back the chance of an imminent Fed rate hike. In addition, positive geopolitical headlines pushed Brent crude oil (-1.85%) to a 4-month low of $71.57/bbl, and this morning that’s continued, with Brent down another -1.06% to $70.81/bbl. So even as the headline numbers pointed towards fresh losses, there was still a fair amount of optimism among investors.

Those glimmers of positivity have been reflected overnight, where both US and European equity futures have stabilised. For instance, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.09%) and the DAX (+0.27%) are both in positive territory. And even though many indices in Asia have lost ground this morning, they’ve recovered from their lows earlier in the session. Indeed, the Nikkei is down -1.61%, but it had been down -2.55% in the first hour of trading. Similarly, the CSI 300 is down -1.85%, but had been down -2.45% earlier on. And several indices are still higher, including the Hang Seng (+1.19%), and Japan’s TOPIX index (+0.63%).

One of those positive catalysts was headlines from Fed Chair Warsh yesterday, who spoke at the ECB’s Sintra forum. He declined to offer any forward guidance, but markets latched onto his comment that “inflation risks have come down”, even as he reiterated his commitment to price stability. So that meant investors priced out the chance of a July hike, with the futures-implied probability falling from 34% on Tuesday to just 27% by the close. And looking further out, the number of hikes priced by December fell -1.4bps on the day to just 36bps.

That dovish repricing then got further momentum from the latest batch of US data, which was generally a bit softer than expected. For instance, the ADP’s report of private payrolls came in at 98k in June (vs. 120k expected). And shortly after, the ISM manufacturing fell to 53.3 in June (vs. 53.9 expected), with the prices paid component down to a 4-month low of 73.0. So collectively that pushed back against the hawkish narrative and led markets to price out the July hike. Nevertheless, longer-dated Treasury yields still inched higher, with the 10yr yield (+1.4bps) up to 4.48%.

Looking forward, US data will stay in the spotlight today, as the June jobs report is out at 13:30 London time. As a reminder, the last three jobs reports all surprised on the upside, pushing the 3-month average of payrolls to a two-year high of +188k. So that’s been a crucial factor behind the hawkish repricing in recent weeks. For today, our US economists forecast payrolls to come in at +75k, largely reflecting expected payback from strong government and leisure/hospitality hiring last month. Meanwhile, they think the unemployment rate will stay at 4.3%, where it’s been for the last 3 consecutive months.

Over in the Euro Area, yesterday also brought some dovish headlines after the flash CPI print surprised on the downside. It showed headline CPI falling more than expected to +2.8% in June (vs. +3.0% expected), with core CPI also down to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected). So that led markets to price in a more dovish path for the ECB over the months ahead, with just 19bps of rate hikes priced in by the December meeting at the close, down -4.3bps on the day. And overnight that’s continued, with just 18bps of hikes now priced in this year. Indeed, with fewer than 25bps now priced by the December meeting, it means investors are pricing in around a one-in-four chance that the ECB might not hike at all again this year.

In the meantime, ECB President Lagarde also spoke on the same panel as Warsh, although her comments didn’t obviously push markets in either direction. She said that the upside inflation and downside growth risks “are probably more broadly balanced than they were a few weeks ago”. But there wasn’t anything that dominated the headlines. So front-end yields fell back in line with the dovish repricing, with the 2yr German yield down -1.6bps. But as in the US, there was a bigger push higher at the long end of the curve, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.0bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) all rising.

As all that was happening, the dovish momentum got further support from the latest decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-1.85%) falling to a 4-month low of $71.57/bbl. That followed positive headlines on the US-Iran talks, after Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were in Qatar on Tuesday. For instance, Trump said that “They’ve had very good meetings”, and AFP reported yesterday that US and Iranian officials were holding indirect lower-level technical talks with mediators. Ongoing talks were then later confirmed by Vice President Vance, who said that the “negotiators are sitting down with the Iranians, with the Qataris, and with others in Doha, talking about some of the details here”. So the newsflow helped to bring oil prices down and ease investor concern about inflation.

When it came to equities, the dovish momentum was countered by a fresh selloff in chip stocks, which saw the Philly semiconductor index fall -6.27%. So that dragged down US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-0.22%) pulling back after gains on Monday and Tuesday. Nevertheless, there were still broader gains, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.24%) hit a new record. Moreover, there was a big jump for Meta (+8.81%), which was the third-strongest performer in the S&P 500 yesterday, after Bloomberg reported they were developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business. However, European equities struggled in the meantime, with the STOXX 600 (-0.38%) pulling back as well.
In other news, the US has said they won’t renew the USMCA trade deal but will instead conduct annual reviews. The original deal said that the countries could unanimously agree on a 16-year extension, but US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said they were “not prepared to rubber stamp the agreement”, and that “there are substantial issues.” The deal is still in place for another decade if no one leaves, but this now begins a 10-year countdown to expiry in 2036 if an agreement isn’t reached.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US jobs report for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, factory orders for May, and the Euro Area unemployment rate for May. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly, the ECB’s Escriva and Cipollone, and the BoE’s Mann.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 08:26

Sam Altman's OpenAI Discusses Handing Trump Admin A 5% Stake

The U.S. government's equity portfolio could be expanding again, this time with a potential 5% stake in Sam Altman's OpenAI at an $852 billion valuation, according to a new report. The proposed stake would mark another step toward taking direct financial positions in tech giants. For OpenAI, buy-in from the Trump administration could ease mounting political pressure ahead of an IPO.

The Financial Times reports that Altman has floated giving the U.S. government a 5% stake in OpenAI, modeled after the Alaska Permanent Fund, a state-owned sovereign wealth fund created to invest a portion of Alaska's oil revenue for the long-term benefit of Alaskans.

The FT noted that the proposal would spur other tech giants, including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, to follow suit by handing over stakes to the federal government.

The discussions remain early and "conceptual," and any arrangement could require congressional approval, the report said, adding that the idea stems from mounting pressure in the Trump administration over AI's impact on jobs and the localized blowback against data center buildouts nationwide.

Earlier this week, Elon Musk's xAI Memphis rolled out a 'data center dividend' for the surrounding community, offering free Starlink kits and half-price service to quell any dissent against AI. This move suggests that data center operators nationwide may offer other forms of dividends in the future to appease surrounding communities.

Back to the FT report, Altman has reportedly discussed public ownership with Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Sanders, a crazed socialist, has argued for the public stake in AI companies to exceed 50%. The socialist and far-left lawmakers who make up the Democratic Socialists of America have even signaled a questionable data center moratorium - a move that would only cede compute power to China.

In recent months, Altman's chatbot company proposed a "public wealth fund" that "provides every citizen — including those not invested in financial markets — with a stake in AI-driven economic growth."

"The goal is not only to support people through economic change after decisions have already been made, but to give them a stake and a voice in shaping how that change unfolds," OpenAI said in a blog post.

The talks come after the Trump administration took a 10% stake in Intel, 15% in MP Materials, and ...

For OpenAI, a government stake could ease tensions with the Trump administration ahead of an IPO (delayed until 2027), while offering a political answer to concerns that AI is financially wrecking low-income folks.

Meanwhile, The Information's earlier report that Nvidia has been renting back its own compute capacity from neocloud providers raises one obvious question...

Yeah I’m sorry the only reason that NVIDIA is renting back its own capacity from neoclouds is that the demand doesn’t exist to sell it https://t.co/QXS0wVbkB1 pic.twitter.com/LXvgZCRhFX

— Ed Zitron (@edzitron) July 2, 2026

... is there really enough end-user compute demand to absorb the AI buildout? 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 07:30

Japan Takes Next Step In $2.3 Trillion Plan With Domestic AI Model And 10M Robots

The Japanese government has unveiled plans to create a domestically developed artificial intelligence model and put roughly 10 million AI-equipped robots into operation across 18 sectors by 2040 - building on a 14-year growth strategy announced last month, which targets ¥370 trillion ($2.3 trillion) in combined public and private investment across 17 priority areas, including physical AI, semiconductors, quantum technology, and nuclear fusion.

Kawasaki Kaleido

The initiative will receive up to 1 trillion yen (approximately $6.1 billion) in government funding over the next five years. Crucially, the funding is tied to annual milestone reviews - making the trillion-yen figure a ceiling rather than a guarantee, with Tokyo retaining the ability to pull back if early targets are missed.

The AI model will be developed by Noetra, a consortium formally commissioned by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and its innovation agency NEDO. Noetra is majority-owned by SoftBank, NEC, Sony Group, and Honda, with Fujitsu and Rakuten reportedly weighing whether to join. The consortium is also working alongside AIST, Japan's national research laboratory. Noetra's investor base is expected to grow to 44 participating companies spanning automotive, electronics, manufacturing, finance, and logistics. The technical goal is a multimodal foundation model capable of processing language, images, video, and sensor data simultaneously - giving robots the ability to interpret a physical environment and act within it, rather than simply executing pre-programmed instructions.

The effort reflects a broader global push by countries to build "sovereign AI" capabilities and reduce reliance on dominant U.S. and Chinese technologies.

A key focus of the strategy is physical AI - the application of artificial intelligence in real-world environments rather than just on screens. This includes self-driving vehicles, factory automation, and humanoid robots designed for practical tasks.

On Tuesday, the government released an updated national AI robotics strategy. Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa said the plan aims to "vigorously promote social implementation across a total of 18 fields," including newly added sectors such as restaurants, food manufacturing, and medicine.

"We will build and grow data infrastructure for physical AI and robots that capitalize on Japan's strengths," Akazawa told reporters.

Those strengths are considerable. Japan is home to some of the world's leading industrial robotics manufacturers - including FANUC, Yaskawa Electric, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries - and produces roughly half of all industrial robots globally by volume, according to the International Federation of Robotics. The country already deploys more robots per manufacturing worker than any other nation, making it the natural proving ground for physical AI at industrial scale.

The push comes as Japan grapples with a rapidly aging and shrinking population. More than 29% of the Japanese population is now aged 65 or older - the highest proportion of any country in the world - and the working-age population has been in decline since 1995. Policymakers see advanced robotics as a critical tool to fill widening labor gaps across industries rather than a supplement to an adequate workforce.

Can they make it happen?

Japan has announced a $2.3 trillion startup tech strategy just after South Korea’s $1.3 trillion pledge

The numbers are just as ridiculous as what they promised Trump for US investment in 2025

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 1, 2026 FANUC factory floor Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 07:00

Why Bernie Sanders' AI Bill Is Fascistic And Dangerous

Authored by Amirhossein Eshtiaghi via The Mises Institute,

Bernie Sanders is a socialist populist. His unfamiliarity with the fundamentals of economics explains why he considers Denmark to be socialist. A former Danish Prime Minister once implicitly addressed such claims, noting that Denmark’s economy is not socialist, but rather a market economy. But the truth does not matter to American leftists.

He has now made headlines again with a bill that would expand state participation in the AI sector—a plan that, contrary to the claims of his supporters, could have disastrous consequences. In the following, these consequences are briefly examined.

This Is a Fascist Policy

Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, after the Soviet Union, were among the countries with the highest levels of state ownership and state control over the economy. In both Germany and Italy, the state controlled many companies, while private firms operated under strict state supervision and intervention. The Nazis nationalized nearly half of the economy and then used extensive regulations to bring the private sector under state control. Mussolini followed a similar approach. The state determined what goods would be produced, how they would be produced, and in what form they would be supplied.

Sanders says that artificial intelligence does not belong to billionaires but to the people. Fascists and Nazis used the same argument—that the private sector should be organized in line with the public interest—to justify extensive intervention in the market. In fact, Hitler and Mussolini were able to control the means of production in much the same way without removing corporate managers.

Comparing Sanders to fascism may seem unusual, but it should not be forgotten that the main leaders of Italian fascism, including Mussolini, were initially socialists before they became fascists. In fact, as Thomas DiLorenzo argues in his book The Problem with Socialism, fascism had socialist origins.

Regarding state ownership and state influence over AI, Sanders and Trump take similar approaches. Trump himself has admitted that the economic views of his voters and Sanders’s voters “aren’t that far apart”—and that may be one of the few honest statements Trump has made in his life. In fact, both are populists and seek to expand state power and weaken the free market economy.

Therefore, Sanders’s proposal, or similar proposals, could allow the state to gain control over the AI industry while preserving the appearance of private ownership. In that sense, such proposals can reasonably be described as fascistic, since they enable state control over production without formally abolishing the private sector.

A Threat to Civil Liberties

States have always used intelligence agencies and affiliated institutions to restrict social freedoms, silence opponents, and monitor users online. They also pressure various platforms to hand over user data so it can be used to suppress dissent. If the state becomes the owner of artificial intelligence companies, it will be able to collect users’ information freely and without any obstacles.

Sanders’s supporters might privately believe that this would be a useful tool for monitoring opponents, allowing the state to identify and silence those who oppose their leftist ideology. However, it must be remembered that this power is being granted to the state, not to a specific political party. If figures like Trump—or any other authoritarian personality—come to power, this authority will fall into their hands, allowing them to suppress those very same leftists. It empowers states to monitor anyone they deem an “undesirable element.” Ultimately, this could pose a serious threat to liberty.

Politicians already possess considerable power; control over artificial intelligence would multiply that power many times over—and more power brings more corruption.

Weakening Innovation

This policy threatens innovation. State favoritism can make it difficult for new and creative players to enter the market and can slow the process of “creative destruction.” It should also be noted that the managers of AI companies might even welcome such a situation, since it could allow them to eliminate new competitors in the industry and reach a monopolistic position.

After all, once the state enters the field, companies could rely on the support of politicians so they no longer have to compete with non-American companies. They might even use the argument that the state is a shareholder in AI companies to justify banning the use of AI systems from other countries in the United States.

The support of some AI companies’ executives for proposals that would lead to state involvement in this industry is highly suspicious. We will have to wait and see what happens, but it is possible that Sanders’s bill could actually help those same billionaires eliminate their competitors.

Technology Should Not Be Held Back

Obstructing technological growth is both foolish and harmful. The claim that artificial intelligence destroys jobs is a deceptive and misleading argument. Opposing AI in order to preserve certain jobs is just as irrational as trying to stop the spread of the internet because the use of email caused some postal workers to lose their jobs.

By the same logic, we should have banned the light bulb because it led to job losses in the candle-making industry. Likewise, we should have abandoned modern textile machinery because it allowed the same amount of clothing to be produced with fewer workers.

If we follow this line of reasoning to its logical conclusion, we would have to return to the Stone Age. Innovation should not be stopped. Technological advancement and innovation are the primary engines of productivity growth and rising living standards. Just as old jobs disappear, new employment opportunities emerge. For example, many workers from traditional industries can find work in newer and more productive sectors of the economy. We should not hinder the growth of industries that can improve the lives of billions of people merely to preserve the jobs of a limited number of individuals.

A Populist Claim

Artificial intelligence, like any other industry, is built by entrepreneurs and producers, and its products are exchanged in the marketplace. The assertion that, “AI does not belong to billionaires; it belongs to the people” is akin to claiming that potatoes do not belong to their farmers but to “the people,” and that therefore, 50 percent of all farmland must be seized by the state.

Sanders is a master of slogans like “Billionaires shouldn’t exist,” and he is strategic in this choice. Were he to replace “billionaires” with “millionaires,” the slogan would inevitably implicate him and leftist celebrities. It benefits him to funnel jealousy toward billionaires, thereby shielding himself from public outrage.

If wealth is inherently evil, then being a millionaire is equally so. In that case, the left would be forced to chant slogans such as “Millionaires should not exist”—or perhaps even say, “Damn Sean Penn, Oprah, and Sanders.” After all, they are all millionaires.

The benefits of AI do not accrue solely to billionaires; billions of people worldwide utilize these tools—in medicine, education, and thousands of other fields. If private companies, absent rent-seeking or government handouts, earn profits through innovation and creativity, there is nothing inherently wrong with that. No one is forced to use AI; those who choose to do so effectively vote with their dollars to reward the companies that provide these services. One can only hope that Sanders has not used these tools or maintained an AI account himself—because if he has, he has been lining the pockets of the very capitalists he claims to despise.

The Abuse of a Public Wealth Fund

Politicians can abuse national wealth funds. In Russia, Vladimir Putin has leveraged the National Wealth Fund to bankroll the war in Ukraine. The US state could just as easily exploit such a fund to finance war or violate human rights. In this scenario, revenues generated from AI would be diverted away from vital investments in innovation and instead channeled into the production of bombs to be dropped on innocent people.

Conclusion

Regrettably, politicians from both major American parties seem determined to undermine the free market and the values of classical liberalism. From Trump’s foolish tariffs to Sanders’s socialist and demagogic policies, both are actively eroding the foundations of economic freedom.

Americans should not feel compelled to choose between economic nationalism and socialism, just as they were never truly forced to choose between fascism and socialism in the twentieth century. There is only one path worth pursuing: the defense of libertarian values.

The real solution to improving living standards lies in the state’s complete withdrawal from all economic and social spheres. Unless the American public shifts its focus toward the ideals of classical liberalism or libertarianism, we will continue to witness a cycle of populism from both parties, as well as state obstruction of growth and innovation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 06:30

Vance Warns 'US Has Options' As Iran Rejects Direct Doha Talks - Trump Insists Diplomacy Is 'Very Good'

Update(1315): The American side is keeping up the illusion of progress on Iran talks, even as Tehran has once again on Wednesday confirmed no direct meeting has taken in place in Doha - nor are there plans for direct dialogue, its deputy FM has said. President Trump has simultaneously hailed "very good" talks on Iran in Doha - apparently just referencing envoys Witkoff and Kushner merely dialoguing with third country intermediaries. 

On the same day, Vice President JD Vance played a little 'bad cop' - warning that if Iran fails to acquiesce and destabilizes the region that the US could respond, escalating in several ways. "If Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, threaten its neighbors and support terrorism, President Trump has options to deal with it," Vance said, without specifying further. Earlier the WSJ stated that Trump had been briefed on several military options - including 'all-out war'; however, the US president is said to want to give diplomacy more time.

Vance additionally stated that the US "dropped bombs on Iran because it fired on ships, and we used leverage to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz" - and suggested this could be done again. He also mentioned that current indirect Doha talks are "to discuss the details and flow of maritime traffic." According to more:

Addressing troops at a naval air base in Virginia, US Vice President JD Vance says Iran’s nuclear program has been set back decades thanks to American military strikes against it.

“If you look at what our own intelligence says about their nuclear program, they are further away from developing a nuclear bomb than they have ever been since basically the last 20 or 30 years,” Vance says, stopping short of US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear program has been “totally obliterated.”

“What the president asks you to accomplish is to destroy the defense industrial base of that country, so that if they ever decided to rebuild their military, or if they ever decided to rebuild that nuclear program, they would be harmless to do it. You did that exactly as well,” Vance tells the US troops.

Iran has meanwhile consistently denied that it is pursuing nuclear weapons, but very likely many IRGC hardliners are calling for just that.

On the Hormuz front, the US believes it is regaining leverage:

• US SEES 10 MILLION BARRELS VIA HORMUZ SAPPING IRAN OIL LEVERAGE
• VANCE: WE'VE HAD FREE COMMERCIAL TRANSIT FOR LAST THREE DAYS
• VANCE: WE CAN'T DROP BOMBS  FOR SAKE OF DROPPING BOMBS
• VANCE: IF IRAN TRIES TO REBUILD NUCLEAR PROGRAM, US HAS OPTIONS

*  *  *

President Trump started this week by claiming that Iran had "requested" direct talks in Qatar, but as of yet the ground reality in Doha is that Iranian officials have refused, leaving US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to just bide their time and deal with Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries.

In this context of Tehran putting direct contacts on hold, Trump has reportedly been briefed on options for a possible return to broader war with Iran, but has for now opted to continue diplomatic negotiations, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal citing admin officials.

Source: White House/Getty Images

The late Monday report described that discussions on "all-out war" planning involved War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, with the focus of the briefing described as assessing whether the United States should abandon talks with Tehran and resume full-scale military strikes. The Journal characterized, citing the officials, the latter option as—

...a move some of them describe as "finishing the job." While not making a final decision, Trump has told aides he believes another round of full-scale attacks could derail diplomacy and hurt Washington’s chances of ultimately dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

While Trump is said to be leaning toward diplomacy, the report suggests he had not made a final decision yet, as new large-scale strikes would certainly destroy already fragile negotiations.

The WSJ further specified the president has told advisers he is ready to allow nuclear negotiations with Tehran to extend beyond an August 18 deadline, giving breathing room and flexibility for talks to produce real results.

It should be noted that the Pentagon and US intelligence community routinely present 'options' for the Commander-in-Chief:

Pentagon briefings on a president’s military options in a conflict aren’t unusual, with Trump routinely holding formal and impromptu meetings on Iran. But the latest discussions suggest he is looking for ways to break the deadlock with Tehran and hasn’t yet ruled out a return to fighting. Resuming the conflict, some officials acknowledge, would be a tacit admission that the much-touted Iran deal failed.

Central sticking points remain the initial release of $6 billion in Iranian frozen assets, and the question of tolls or fees for Hormuz Strait passage. The US side has yet to see enough good behavior from Iran to release the funds - but perhaps the administration is more worried about domestic criticism from the hawks. Neither side has found agreement for moving forward.

In the meantime so-called hardliners within Iran are putting pressure on their negotiators to make Washington 'pay' if it won't honor its agreements outlined in the MoU. As geopolitical blog Moon of Alabama has laid out:

The U.S. is obviously not willing to fulfill the conditions set out in its Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. It will need more pressure from Iran to make the U.S. agree to its demands.

The current team of Iranian leaders who had negotiated and signed the MoU are President Masoud Pezeshkian -a good heart surgeon but unexperienced politician-, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf -a former IRGC leader and professional politician-, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi -a longtime professional diplomat.

All three are now under critique for multiple breaches of the MoU by the U.S. and the perceived lack of Iranian responses to those.

Some 68 members of 88 men strong Assembly of Experts have published (in Farsi, in in English) a strong admonishing advice to the negotiators to stick to the ten points the Supreme Leader of Iran had defined.

The Assembly of Experts is the elected board of senior Islamic jurists which can elect and disposes of the Supreme Leader. It is residing in Qom. Its assembly building had been destroyed in one of the U.S. attacks on Iran.

The Assembly's statement from just days stated in part, "In accordance with the commitment of the respected officials to the leadership and the people, it is expected that any breach of the agreement and violation of the clauses of the memorandum of understanding will be responded to immediately."

The Iranian Foreign Minister's own rhetoric has grown more pointed and heated at this point:

The terms of the Islamabad MoU are crystal clear and public for all to see.

POTUS has committed the U.S. to muzzling its pets in Tel Aviv. If they ignore their master, Iran will school them.

Any threat against our People and Leadership will receive Immediate Powerful Response. pic.twitter.com/VrKa259gYd

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 1, 2026

So far, the White House has tended to ignore such strong rhetoric coming from Araghchi - again, likely not willing to damage negotiations all based on some social media tit-for-tat exchanges.

But all of this without doubt demonstrates that Tehran won't so easily bend, and the two sides could be headed toward more direct clashes as absolutist demands and interpretations keep being presented.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 06:14

Treasure Hunters Recover $100K Silver Bar From Legendary 1622 Shipwreck Treasure hunters searching the waters off the Florida Keys have uncovered a 22-pound silver bar believed to have come from the wreck of the Spanish galleon Nuestra Señora de Atocha, according to a new report from SlashGear.

The artifact, estimated to be worth about $100,000, is the first silver bar recovered from the legendary wreck site in nearly three decades. It was discovered by divers working with Mel Fisher's Shipwreck Expeditions during a routine recovery mission.

The Atocha was part of a Spanish treasure fleet that was destroyed by a powerful hurricane in September 1622 while returning to Europe. Loaded with silver, gold, and other valuables collected from Spain's colonies in the Americas, the ship went down in relatively shallow water, taking nearly its entire crew with it and scattering its cargo across the ocean floor.

The report says that the wreck remained one of history's great lost treasures until famed salvager Mel Fisher finally located its main debris field in 1985 after a 16-year search. That breakthrough yielded hundreds of millions of dollars in treasure, but archaeologists and recovery teams have continued to uncover new artifacts from the sprawling debris field ever since.

Experts believe the site is still far from exhausted. Mel Fisher's organization estimates that more than $120 million worth of silver, copper ingots, bronze cannons, and other cargo may still remain buried beneath the seabed, waiting to be uncovered by future expeditions.

The latest recovery also serves as a reminder that some of history's greatest discoveries don't happen all at once. Centuries of shifting sand, storms, and changing ocean currents continue to expose artifacts that were hidden for generations, giving modern explorers fresh opportunities to recover pieces of one of the world's most famous shipwrecks.

While the silver bar's estimated value is impressive on its own, discoveries like this are about more than money. Each recovered artifact helps historians better understand the scale of Spain's colonial trade network, the enormous wealth transported across the Atlantic, and the risks that came with moving treasure by sea during the Age of Exploration.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 05:45

KKR And SK Launch South Korea's Largest Renewable Energy Platform

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Global investment firm KKR and South Korea’s industrial conglomerate SK Inc are launching the single biggest renewable energy platform in South Korea to help meet growing power demand from AI and chip manufacturing.

KKR and SK Inc are creating the platform, valued at about $1.3 billion, or 2 trillion South Korean won, to combine 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of clean energy capacity in operation and a pipeline of projects in development that would boost the platform’s total capacity to 10 GW, the investment firm said in a statement. 

The renewable electricity will help meet South Korea’s surging clean-power demand from AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing, according to the global investor.  

The 10 GW capacity targeted by the platform would be capable of simultaneously and continuously powering 100 large-scale, 100MW-class data centers, KKR said.

“At this scale, the Platform is well positioned to become a reliable, large-scale source of clean power for Korea's most demanding industrial users, from AI data centers to global semiconductor production lines, and more,” the global investment firm said.

KKR will have management control of the platform in its initial phase, while SK will participate as an equity investor and retain the flexibility to pursue control rights through future discussions.

“Korea is one of Asia’s most attractive renewable energy markets, underpinned by strong corporate demand for clean power from the semiconductor, data center, and manufacturing sectors,” said Keith Kim, Partner at KKR.

“Together, we are establishing a leading, scaled renewable energy platform that can supply reliable clean power to Korea's most demanding industrial users.”

In April, while South Korea was scrambling for oil supply not passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Korean Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment said the country would target to generate at least 20% of its power supply from renewables by 2030, up from about 11% now.

“We will swiftly implement the energy transition plan to make sure that South Korea remains resilient to external shocks, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East,” Climate Minister Kim Sung-whan said in April.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/02/2026 - 05:00