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Zelensky's Secret Police Being Looked At By Investigators For Monaco Bomb Attack

The manhunt continues, chiefly focused in France or also nearby Italy, for the culprit who committed a Monday parcel bomb attack on an exiled Ukrainian oligarch and his family at their luxury apartment building in Monaco.

The victims - Vadym Iermolaiev, his 'partner' (or wife, according to contradictory reports) and his 13-year-old child, all survived the bombing, with Iermolaiev and his partner having sustained serious injuries and in critical condition. The suspected would-be assassin was seen fleeing to the French border, after which "Dozens of officers were deployed in Monaco, while two helicopters and some 30 gendarmes scoured neighboring France for a man who left a package in a residential building near the border, according to the police and gendarmerie."

Vadym Iermolaiev, via X

Given that Iermolaiev had long ago been declared an enemy of the Ukrainian state, and has been under sanctions for years for his extensive business dealings in Crimea, Ukrainian intelligence is coming under the spotlight for possible involvement in the Monaco bomb attack - a first of its kind in the small, wealthy principality.

Le Figaro is reporting that the investigation focuses on Zelensky's secret police (SBU) in the Monaco bomb attack: "According to several concurring sources at Le Figaro, investigators are focusing on the possibility that the attack was orchestrated by the SBU, the Ukrainian intelligence service."

The report continues, "Vadim Ermolaev, a wealthy businessman residing in Monaco since 2021, as the magistrate specified, had distanced himself from his native country, exchanging his Ukrainian citizenship for a Cypriot passport in 2019, before being targeted by personal sanctions imposed by Kyiv in December 2023."

And Le Figaro notes further:

According to our information, the attack appears to have been more of a "warning" than a deliberate attempt at murder.

However, police did call it a "powerful explosion" - so significant that parts of Iermolaiev's partner (or wife's) legs were lost, reports said.

Wow! Le Figaro reports that investigation focuses on Zelensky's secret police (SBU) in Monaco bomb attack that injured exiled Ukrainian oligarch and his family:

"According to several concurring sources at Le Figaro, investigators are focusing on the possibility that the attack… https://t.co/Pk9BUBiBba pic.twitter.com/TFdHk9sJPb

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) June 30, 2026

According to more background of the Ukrainian tycoon's past:

“Iermolaiev is a real estate developer who was born and raised in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. His company, the Alef Group, also has interests in agriculture and vodka production. In 2018 the oligarch gave up his Ukrainian passport and acquired EU citizenship from Cyprus. As well as Monaco, he is a frequent visitor to London and Paris.

In 2022, the newspaper Ukrainskaya Pravda identified the oligarch as a member of the “Monaco battalion”, an ironic reference to wealthy Ukrainians who live in comfort abroad while their fellow citizens experience daily Russian drone and missile attacks. Iermolaiev enjoyed the high life and drove a £250,000 Bentley Flying Spur, it noted.

The following year, Ukraine imposed personal sanctions on Iermolaiev after an investigation by the country’s SBU security agency. It said the 58-year-old oligarch continued to trade alcohol in occupied Crimea and paid millions of dollars in taxes to the Russian treasury. His assets were frozen and he was prohibited from doing business.

While Russia has long been accused of deploying intelligence-linked assassin squads in Europe to hunt down political enemies, there's lately been increasingly acknowledgement that Ukraine has been engaged in its own 'dirty war' of assassination hits, both within and outside of Russia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 09:25

Meanwhile In The UK, You Simply Will Not Believe This...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A convicted predator who helped destroy the lives of vulnerable girls as young as 13 is days away from freedom in Britain, while Pakistan refuses to take him and archaic rules shield him from removal.

Shabir Ahmed's case lays bare how legal technicalities, political cowardice, and a refusal to enforce borders have turned the country into a revolving door for the most dangerous offenders.

Ahmed, now 73, arrived in the UK long before 1973 as a Commonwealth citizen. He was convicted in 2012 at Liverpool Crown Court on multiple counts of rape, aiding and abetting rape, sexual assault, and trafficking for sexual exploitation. He treated at least one victim as property, abusing her on an almost weekly basis. Part of a gang of nine men operating out of takeaways in the Heywood area of Rochdale, Ahmed and his associates targeted working-class girls from broken backgrounds.

A grooming gang leader cannot be deported back to Pakistan despite being stripped of his British citizenship due to a loophole in legislation. Shabir Ahmed is set to be released from prison on Thursday.

GB News National Reporter @CDP1882 has more. pic.twitter.com/Fdfv841Usm

— GB News (@GBNEWS) June 30, 2026

He received lengthy sentences that later expanded. His British citizenship was stripped. Yet, ludicrously, he cannot be deported. The barrier is a provision in the Immigration Act 1971 that exempts Commonwealth citizens who arrived before 1973 and have long residence from removal.

On release, expected imminently, Ahmed faces lifelong sex offender registration, exclusion zones around Rochdale, bans on contacting any child, strict curfews, and electronic tagging. Breaches mean immediate return to prison. Taxpayers will foot the bill for round-the-clock monitoring and staffed accommodation.

Criminal Lawyer Marcus Johnstone, who has handled grooming gang cases for nearly two decades, pointed out that outdated laws combined with excessive human rights legislation have made Britain the destination of choice for international sex criminals. The gangs are sophisticated. The system that should remove them is not.

'When you think it can't get any worse, it does.'

Criminal Lawyer Marcus Johnstone, reacts to a grooming gang leader who cannot be deported back to Pakistan after being released from prison despite being stripped of his British citizenship, due to a loophole in legislation. pic.twitter.com/4TH0VnJ6ZC

— GB News (@GBNEWS) June 30, 2026

Home Office statements emphasise thoughts with victims and the "darkest moments" of the grooming gangs scandal, insisting the full force of the law will apply through these conditions.

Labour MP Paul Waugh, whose Rochdale constituency was ground zero for the abuse, called Ahmed a "depraved paedophile" who should have been removed years ago. He said the people of Rochdale want him gone and urged ministers to amend the Citizenship Act if necessary.

This case fits a wider, years-long scandal of institutional failure and political cowardice.

Separate recent investigations laid bare mini-mart operations where vulnerable children were plied with alcohol and cigarettes in exchange for sexual abuse.

Illegal shops were caught handing out free vapes to kids in return for sexual favours.

And the weary response from parts of the establishment often boiled down to telling victims and the public to simply "get over it."

The common thread is the same: authorities slow-walked or buried evidence, prioritised community relations over child safety, and treated any mention of ethnic or cultural patterns as radioactive.

Official files had ethnicity redacted. In two-thirds of cases, perpetrator background went unrecorded. Police in some areas told victims the Asian men who abused them were "probably not going to catch them."

A 2020 Home Office report, relying on hopelessly incomplete data, pushed the false narrative that most grooming perpetrators were white - a claim parroted in Parliament and by broadcasters even after it was exposed as statistical sleight-of-hand.

The motivation was always the same: fear of "racism" accusations, dread of community tension, and the overriding imperative to protect the narrative that mass immigration and multiculturalism have been an unalloyed success. Working-class girls, often from broken homes or care systems, paid the price while officials and media looked the other way or actively smeared whistleblowers.

While Ahmed prepares for supervised release, London Mayor Sadiq Khan faces renewed scrutiny over his past claims. In January 2025 he told the London Assembly there were "no reported cases and also no indication of the grooming gangs" in the capital.

A Metropolitan Police review of roughly 12,000 potential child sexual exploitation reports since 2010 has since flagged more than 4,000 cases that may require reopening. Many had been closed without further action. These have been referred to the National Crime Agency under Operation Beaconport.

London's current review notes a broader mix of offender backgrounds than the classic Pakistani-heritage networks documented in Rotherham, Rochdale, Telford and elsewhere. That distinction does not erase the scale of what was ignored or the political class that spent years insisting the problem did not exist in the capital.

This London revelation drops just days after the release of Rupert Lowe's Rape Gang Inquiry Report, which documented a coordinated national campaign of rape, torture and abuse against up to 250,000 British girls by predominantly Muslim grooming gangs operating across 149 local authority districts.

Lowe's findings laid bare the same pattern of police warnings to rapists, political interference and deliberate suppression of evidence that protected predators for decades while treating working-class girls as disposable.

Britain does not lack the power to change this. Parliament can amend citizenship and immigration rules to close loopholes for serious offenders. It can assert sovereignty over international obligations that shield threats.

Other countries manage deportation of convicted criminals without descending into chaos. The question is whether the political class has the will to put the safety of British girls ahead of globalist pieties and domestic sensitivities.

Ahmed walking free under licence is not justice. It is the predictable result of a system that has spent years protecting itself from hard truths rather than protecting its children. British girls deserve a country that removes foreign criminals who rape its children and never looks back.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 09:05

Preview And Watch Live: Kevin Warsh Speaks At Sintra ECB Forum

Watch live here:

Today’s main event takes place in Sintra, Portugal and the ECB’s annual symposium, where Warsh joins President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 9 a.m. New York time.  Bloomberg Economics expects Warsh to strike a carefully balanced tone after signaling different messages to hawks and doves at the June FOMC meeting

Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a prime of what to expect at the Sintra panel featuring Fed’s Warsh, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey & BoC’s Macklem, at 14:00BST/09:00EDT.

The panel is a ‘policy panel", lasting for one hour from 14:00BST/09:00EDT, with CNBC’s Eisen as moderator. Text releases are not expected.

Fed

Warsh has already become notorious in not wanting to provide forward guidance, so while traders will be looking to his appearance for clues on future policy, some analysts suggest that traders may be left disappointed. At his first policy meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC held the FFR target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, via a unanimous vote. Warsh described the labour market as keeping pace with workforce growth, with unemployment little changed, while inflation remains elevated due to energy-related supply shocks tied to the Iran conflict. On the 2% target, Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s “capability and commitment" to deliver price stability, calling the commitment “strong, unanimous, and unambiguous". Notably, he declined to submit his own SEP projections (though nine of the other eighteen officials projected the FFR target will end 2026 above the current range, pointing to hike risk). On the balance sheet, the Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system, with a dedicated task force reviewing the balance sheet tool’s transmission. Warsh also abandoned forward guidance, shortening the policy statement significantly, and launched task forces covering data, communications, and the inflation framework.

ECB

Lagarde has spoken extensively recently, and will have an opportunity to speak again during the closing Sintra remarks once the panel ends. Lagarde's remarks on the 22nd of June, alongside the post-MoU energy pullback, have driven much of the moderation in pricing seen in recent weeks, removing a back-to-back hike from the playbook ahead and instead placing focus almost entirely on September for the next potential move. To recap, Lagarde said they “see no evidence yet of de-anchoring of inflation expectations or second-round effects that would warrant a more forceful policy response at this stage” and, as it stood, the ‘current shock appears to be smaller in magnitude..." vs the last period of high inflation, i.e. when Russia’s war in Ukraine commenced. However, at the start of Sintra Lagarde was a touch more hawkish talking around inflation being “away" from target. Though, her commentary didn’t spark any real return towards a move in July. Since, the Flash EZ HICP for June came in cooler than expected, though Services remains above the April figure. While the PMIs are net-constructive, however, much uncertainty remains amid the Middle East situation.

BoE

Following the June meeting and despite the two hawkish dissenters, the narrative has shifted significantly to the BoE being on hold for the foreseeable future. Although Governor Bailey has expressed frustration that inflation is not back to target, he has continued to stick to the narrative that the BoE has time to judge the pass-through of higher energy prices onto the UK economy. There has not been anything to suggest that Bailey will deviate from this.

BoC

After the BoC's June meeting, Governor Macklem said any decision on possible rate hikes would depend on conditions, not a specific timeline. He noted that core inflation has ticked down, while inflation expectations will remain a key consideration. Economic weakness tends to put downward pressure on prices, adding that higher oil prices have not yet spread significantly into other goods and services, though food inflation remains a concern. He also said little had changed since the previous meeting, with no major data surprises, and that Canada's economy is not clearly in recession. On communications, Macklem warned that too much forward guidance can imply false precision and become confusing. Separately, speaking last week, he said widening global imbalances and rising non-bank lending increase the risk of economic disruption. He warned that large capital inflows into the US could be misallocated or reverse suddenly, spreading stress beyond US borders, and urged global officials to support higher US savings, Chinese consumption and European investment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:54

Futures Fall To Start Now Quarter With Warsh Sintra Comments On Deck

US equity futures point to a softer start to the third quarter as investors await a fresh batch of economic data and the first major overseas appearance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, off session lows, while Nasdaq futures are down 0.6: techs lags following NDX’s 3.9% gain over the last 2 days; in premarket trading, chipmakers, which did much of the heavy lifting as investors piled into AI beneficiaries, were weaker with Mag7s mostly lower. Nike dropped 2% following a cautious outlook. Software names including Microsoft gained. Cyclicals are under pressure with HC and Staples leading a Defensives bid. Overnight the US removed Anthropic’s foreign access restrictions. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp, and USD is bid as positive progress is reported in US / Iran talk. In commodities, crude prices are lower as distillates rise; WTI futures are down about 0.8% following the biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic.Metals are under pressure, with Ags bid as the group has been the recent outperformer. US economic data calendar includes June ADP employment change (8:15am), June final S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and June ISM manufacturing (10am). 

In premarket trading, Microsoft outperforms Magnificent 7 peers in premarket trading. Business Insider reports that the company is planning to announce job cuts, impacting thousands of roles, citing people it didn’t identify. Shares are up 1.7%. Other Mag 7 stocks are mixed early Wednesday (Alphabet -0.4%, Nvidia -0.6%, Apple -0.09%, Tesla -0.4%, Amazon +0.9%, Meta Platforms +0.3%). Here are some of the biggest US movers today:

• Abbott Lab (ABT) shares are up 0.03% in premarket trading after Baird initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform rating, saying a clearer path to upside for the medical device maker is “beginning to emerge.”
• Alcoa Corp. (AA) is down 5.0% after the mining company agreed to buy South32 Ltd.’s bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets in a deal worth as much as $5.6 billion. Morgan Stanley expects a negative reaction on the transaction multiple and limited visibility on synergies.
• Bloom Energy (BE) shares rise 8.3% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company expanded its partnership with Brookfield from $5 billion to $25 billion to help grow the fuel cell partnership globally.
• Dow Inc. shares are down 0.7% in premarket trading, after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the chemical company to sector perform from outperform. Mizuho cut its price target to $35 from $43.
• FMC shares rise 7.0% after the company said Tessenderlo Group will make a strategic minority equity investment of about $400 million at $13.30 per share. Shares in Tessenderlo gain 3.4% in Brussels.
• General Mills shares are up 4.89% after the packaged food company’s adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
• Grindr shares gain 6.9% ahead of the bell after Morgan Stanley upgrades the LGBTQ community dating company to overweight from equal-weight, highlighting monetizing opportunities. The upgrade leaves the stock with only buy-equivalent ratings.
• NASA selected Astrobotic, Firefly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines for four moon missions in late 2028 as part of the Moon Base Program. Intuitive and Firefly shares are up 7.2% and 2.7%, respectively.
• Nike shares fall 1.6% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the sneaker company said on its conference call revenue expectations for the next two quarters are now seen down low-to-mid single digits from down low single digits earlier.
• Klarna shares rise 6.9% after a Swedish Patent and Market court ordered Google to pay SEK14.3b ($1.47b) to Klarna’s subsidiary PriceRunner International following antitrust damages proceedings.
• Microsoft outperforms Magnificent 7 peers in premarket trading. Business Insider reports that the company is planning to announce job cuts, impacting thousands of roles, citing people it didn’t identify. Shares are up 1.7%.
• Shares in ServiceNow, Salesforce and Check Point Software rise in premarket trading as Guggenheim upgraded all three to buy from neutral, saying that the fatal AI bear case on software is a “hallucination.” ServiceNow +5.0%, Salesforce +3.3% and Check Point Software +3.1%.

US stocks just posted their best quarter in six years with fresh signs of economic resilience bolstering confidence in corporate earnings. The rally added more than $8 trillion to the S&P 500’s market value over the past three months. The SOX semiconductor index posted its strongest quarter on record.

“As long as earnings continue to be good and broaden out, I think we will get continued gains through the second half — probably lower than what we saw in the first half — but I think it will quite broadly based,” said Goldman’s Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer. Technology remains the main driver of earnings growth even as hyperscalers have “derated” on concerns about longer-term returns, Oppenheimer said. Their heavy spending should continue to underpin growth and “trickle out” into parts of the economy supporting the AI infrastructure buildout, he told Bloomberg TV. 

Meanwhile, concentrated market leadership, passive investing, retail flows, leverage and a new volatility regime are increasingly dictating price action, Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner wrote in a Tuesday note. 

In other assets, the global oil market is set to swing back into oversupply even after strategic reserves are replenished, according to Goldman Sachs. Japan’s currency chief suggested intervention was an effective strategy. 

Today’s main event takes place in Sintra, Portugal and the ECB’s annual symposium, where Warsh joins President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 9 a.m. New York time. Bloomberg Economics expects Warsh to strike a carefully balanced tone after signaling different messages to hawks and doves at the June FOMC meeting. After his pledge last month to deliver price stability sent the dollar and shorter-dated Treasury yields higher, traders will be looking for further clues on the rate path for the year ahead.

“Given the absence of forward guidance from the Fed now, there is going to be intense focus on any comments” from Warsh, wrote Chris Turner, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Bank NV. “A focus on price stability can keep the dollar bid.”

Investors are increasingly shifting focus to growing price pressures in an economy that’s firing strongly, with expectations building for a solid payrolls report on Thursday. 

European stocks also slipped in early Wednesday trading, with indexes dragged down by mining companies on the back of weaker commodity prices. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 640.52 with 229 members up, 361 down, and 10 unchanged. Among individual stocks, Switzerland’s Galderma fell the most in over a year after the US FDA turned down the firm’s Botox rival Relfydess. CMC Markets jumped to a fresh record high after raising its guidance.  Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• CMC Markets shares soar as much as 25% to a fresh record after the UK financial derivatives dealer raised its guidance for 2027 net operating income citing strong momentum
• Renault shares rise as much as 4.5% after the French carmaker hosted a pre-close call with analysts ahead of its first-half results scheduled for the end of the month
• Tecan shares rise as much as 10% after UBS raised its recommendation in the Swiss laboratory technology group to buy from hold, saying top-line growth has bottomed out and expected margin improvements are not yet priced in
• Aker ASA gains as much as 11%, the most since January, after it agreed to sell its shares in Cognite Holding to Schneider Electric, which meanwhile dropped as much as 3%
• ASOS shares gain as much as 12% after announcing it will sell its Atlanta fulfilment center and associated automation assets for net proceeds of ~£48 million
• RS Group rises as much as 5.1%, the most since May 20, as Deutsche Bank upgrades the distributor of electrical and industrial products to buy from hold on a strengthening recovery case
• Galderma shares slump as much as 6.6%, the most in more than a year, after the US Food and Drug Administration turned down the Swiss dermatology firm’s rival Botox treatment Relfydess
• AB Foods shares fall as much as 3.6%, the most in over two months, after the conglomerate delivered an underwhelming third-quarter update and downgraded the outlook for its sugar business in the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years
• Bucher shares fall as much as 3.6%, the most since April 28, after Kepler Cheuvreux cut its price target on the Swiss agricultural machinery company, citing capex sentiment indicators in Europe that are nearing recession territory
• Medacta drops as much as 4.1%, the most in a month, as Stifel cuts its full-year organic revenue growth estimates for the Swiss medical-implant firm to the midpoint of guidance

Earlier, Asian stocks fluctuated on Wednesday after capping their best quarter in 17 years, as investors paused to assess the outlook for the AI rally that has been a major driver of the gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between gains and losses for most of the day. Declines in South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were a major drag, offsetting gains in Japan and Taiwan — which together account for about half of the benchmark. Hong Kong markets were closed for a public holiday. The Kospi declined as the National Pension Service was set to resume rebalancing its domestic stock holdings after a temporary suspension.

The Asian benchmark climbed 21% last quarter while a subgauge of tech shares soared a record 74%. However, the sector’s rally slowed in June as rising concerns over the payoff from hefty AI investments, coupled with elevated valuations and crowded positioning, sparked intermittent pullbacks, particularly in Korean shares. The AI trade within Asia has been “quite narrow,” Hebe Chen, senior market analyst at Vantage Global Prime, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That overcrowding is often exposed to a higher and sharper fall if the tide changes, because this rally has attracted so much liquidity,” she added.

In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rises 0.2% to its highest level this week before Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh appears on a policy panel alongside peers from Europe and the UK.

Treasuries are narrowly mixed with yields less than a basis point away from their closing levels on Tuesday, when they climbed 7bp-9bp amid a flurry of month-end selling in futures. WTI crude oil futures are down, underpinning Treasuries, as traders monitor peace talks between the US and Iran. US 10-year yields are down 1bp to around 4.46%, Treasuries are little changed on the day while curve spreads are marginally steeper. European bonds lag Treasuries, following the late weakness in futures into the US month-end index rebalancing, which also saw the day’s steepening move accelerate. Focal points of US session include key manufacturing data and unscripted comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. 

In commodities, Brent extended declines, falling 1% to $72.20 a barrel. US negotiators held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran, according to a senior administration official, as the countries seek to turn an interim peace deal into a permanent end to the war. That’s been of little support to European government bonds, however. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 2 basis points each. Precious metals decline, with spot silver down over 1%. 

US economic data calendar includes June ADP employment change (8:15am), June final S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and June ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Warsh, participating in an ECB panel in Sintra, Portugal at 9am New York time

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran and U.S.-allied Oman are moving forward with plans to collect payment for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite public American objections. NYT
• US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran, according to a senior administration official, as the countries seek to turn an interim peace deal into a permanent end to the war. BBG
• The US removed foreign access restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI model. The company said it will restore global access across its platforms starting today. BBG
• Xi Jinping signaled China’s ambition to play a more high-profile role, a strategy that involves rallying developing nations as a counterweight to what he views as fading US influence. BBG
• The yen pared some losses after Japan’s top FX official said past intervention efforts were successful, adding that Washington remains in close communication with Tokyo over FX policy. South Korea’s won slid toward its weakest level since the global financial crisis. BBG
• Euro-area inflation eased more than anticipated in June. Consumer prices rose 2.8% from a year ago, down from 3.2% a month earlier. BBG
• President Trump has weighed a return to all-out war with Iran, holding multiple conversations in recent days with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine on more strikes, but has decided to stick with diplomatic talks for now, according to U.S. officials familiar with the discussion. WSJ
• Microsoft plans thousands of job cuts, impacting less than 2.5% of workforce. Business Insider
• Republicans’ cash advantage just got a lot more powerful thanks to the Supreme Court — and the Democratic National Committee’s fundraising struggles just got a lot more concerning for their party. Democrats argue that the court’s Tuesday decision, which allows political parties to freely coordinate with candidates, will give the GOP the ability to offset Democratic candidates’ fundraising lead in battlegrounds. Politico
• The value of global M&A rose around 30% year-on-year to $2.6 trillion in the first half, on course to potentially pass 2021’s record haul. Companies struck 38 deals valued at $10 billion or more, the most ever in a six-month period. BBG
• US Challenger Job Cuts (Jun) 45.849K (Prev. 97.006K); cuts remain concentrated in tech, with AI continuing to reshape how companies think about headcount.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mixed, in which bourses partially sustained the positive momentum from the tech-led gains on Wall St, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best quarter in six years. The region also digested a slew of data, including the stronger-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey and numerous PMIs. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the consumer, financial, tech and telecom sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by a surprise contraction in Building Approvals data. Nikkei 225 rallied following the stronger-than-expected Tankan survey, which showed Large Manufacturing Sentiment was at the highest in 8 years, although the index gradually wiped out the majority of its gains amid intervention risks and as the data supported the case for the BoJ to continue normalising policy.
KOSPI pared opening gains and lingered in the red as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics retreated. Shanghai Comp was underpinned on the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, and as participants digested the latest RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, which remained in expansion territory, while Hong Kong markets were closed for a holiday.

Top Asian News

• Japanese top FX diplomat Mimura said they are in touch with US counterparts more than most imagine and that a US official made supportive remarks about FX action, while he also commented that recent intervention had meaning.
• BoJ official noted regarding the recent Tankan survey that most firms replied before the US-Iran peace deal on June 15th, so the impact of the deal is likely not reflected much in the Tankan outcome.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) start Q3 on a softer footing, with Germany's DAX 40 (+0.4%) the only index printing modest gains; perhaps welcoming recent pension reform progress and the possible involvement of the Bundesbank. Final manufacturing PMI figures were broadly positive, with the majority of PMIs being revised higher. Commentary was relatively upbeat, with S&P stating that the sustained growth was accompanied by a welcome cooling of cost pressures. European sectors tilt to the negative side. Industrial Goods & Services (+0.5%), Technology (+0.5%) and Optimised Personal Care (+0.5%) are the top 3 sectors. To the downside lies Media (-1.7%), Consumer Products & Services (-1.5%) and Travel & Leisure (-0.1%).

Top European News

• French Presidential vote to be held on April 18th and May 2nd next year, with the official announcement expected on Wednesday, according to AFP citing sources.
• UK Labour MPs reportedly want Burnham to appoint McFadden as Chancellor, in order to block Miliband, Huffington Post reported citing sources.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD this morning, with clear underperformance in the Aussie, whilst the Kiwi fares a little better vs peers. USD/JPY continues to hold at elevated levels beyond the 162.50 mark, with further jawboning attempts seen overnight.
• DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 101.21-101.39 range (WTD peak at 101.43). The strength which comes amidst the markets’ continued hawkish shift at the Fed, seen following the last FOMC meeting. Markets also appear to be positioning for a hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh today, and then the NFP report on Thursday. On that note, Treasury Sec Bessent said he expects a strong jobs number, though clarified that he had not seen the report. Key releases today include: US ADP Employment, Challenge Job Cuts and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• EUR and GBP have both been weighed on by the USD strength. The single currency has had a number of ECB members to digest, who are currently hosting the Sintra conference. Broadly speaking the remarks have been balanced, and with policymakers stressing data dependency heading into the July/September meetings. On the inflation front, today’s HICP release from the EZ saw the headline Y/Y cool from the prior (2.8% vs exp. 3%, prev. 3.2%). The Services figure also edged lower to 3.2% (prev. 3.5%). Some very mild pressure was seen in the EUR, and plays in favour of a hold in July. On the activity side of things, today’s Manufacturing PMI finals were subject to mild upward revisions, and the accompanying commentary was upbeat.
• JPY continues to remain in focus, with another jawboning attempt proving impotent. The latest attempt was by Top FX Diplomat who stated that Japan is in touch with US counterparts more than most imagine and that a US official made supportive remarks about FX action. This spurred some very mild pressure in the pair (05:30 BST / 00:30 EDT), falling from 162.79 to 162.56, before retracing about half of that move. A breach beyond the 163.00 mark could be difficult, given expectations that Japan may use the low-volume / holiday-thinned conditions on Friday (US Independence Day) to deliver effective intervention. Nonetheless, a hawkish Warsh and a strong NFP report on Thursday pose risk to the 163.00 level, which some have touted as the new “line in the sand”.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks are softer across the board, given Tuesday's post-settlement selloff. However, price action across the board has been range-bound, as markets look ahead to Fed Chair Warsh's first public appearance and updates from the US-Iran indirect Doha talks.
• Bunds (-18 ticks) have found support at the 127.00 handle, finding some stability after Tuesday's weakness, which was primarily driven by USTs. EZ inflation printed cooler than expected, with the headline figure at 2.8% Y/Y from 3.2% (exp. 3.0%) and ex-E, F, A & T dipping to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.6% (exp. 2.6%). Bunds did see some fleeting upside following the data, notching a new session high of 127.23 before falling back into the prior established daily range. ECB policymakers should find some comfort from the report, with some GC members starting to sound a bit more cautious on further rate hikes. On the supply front, a 2032 Bund auction was weak, with a poor b/c, though the average yield was less than the prior outing.
• USTs (-8+ ticks) oscillate in a narrow 109-18 to 109-23 band ahead of comments by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra and the US jobs report on Thursday. Since his first remarks at the FOMC press conference, core PCE printed at 3.4% Y/Y, consumer confidence has surprised to the upside, and May payrolls printed strong (June payrolls due on Thursday). Given the backdrop, it would be hard for Warsh to soften his hawkish tone.
• OATs (-21 ticks) follow their European peers, but will come into greater focus as we near the Presidential elections in 2027. A date for the first round of elections has reportedly been set for April 18th, 2027, with a run-off set for May 2nd. The current President, Macron, cannot run in this election.
• Germany sells EUR 2.673bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 2.4x), avg. yield 2.68% (prev. 2.8%), retention 23.6% (prev. 23.94%).
• UK sells GBP 1.25bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Treasury Gilt: b/c 4.26x (prev. 3.75x), real yield 0.933% (prev. 0.651%).
• Australia sells AUD 800mln 4.25% December 2035 bonds b/c 4.34, avg yield 4.748%

Commodities

• A contained start for the energy complex, but with modest pressure emerging across the European morning. As the benchmarks pullback from the highs in yesterday’s session and the brief, but within existing ranges, uptick seen in the US late-afternoon as tensions flared somewhat. Currently, the waiting game continues amid the Doha gathering, but there is a positive skew to current expectations as the US and Iran are expected to hold in-direct talks and after President Trump’s openness to extending deadlines over taking military action.
• As the morning progressed the downside extended with participants looking to the Doha indirect meeting, and indeed sources since suggest that has commenced, no move on that latest report. Kushner and Witkoff are reportedly not involved in the technical exchange.
• Action that pushed Brent to a USD 71.62/bbl base, printing a fresh WTD low and falling below the USD 71.93/bbl trough. The next leg higher/lower will potentially be determined by the readout and/or sources around the talks, before we look to possible comments from President Trump or others on the state of relations.
• Spot gold saw pressure overnight, moving below the USD 4k/oz handle once again. The yellow metal is currently trading at the bottom-end of a USD 3,960-4,018/oz range, with the trough approaching the WTD low at USD 3,942/oz range. The recent pressure has been attributed to the markets’ continued hawkish shift at the Fed, stronger USD and rising US yields. Price action for the remainder of the day will be dictated by key US data (ADP/ISM Manufacturing) and Fed Chair Warsh.
• Base metals are entirely in the red, following the subdued risk sentiment seen in Asia, which has filtered through into the London session. 3M LME Copper (-1.67%) has traded lower throughout the day, and currently holds at the bottom end of a USD 13,134.08-13,384/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.1mln (exp. -4.1mln), Distillates +2.9mln (exp. -0.9mln), Gasoline -2.1mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +0.5mln.
• Petrobras executive said they will cut diesel prices beginning July 1st.

Central Banks

• ECB's Nagel pushed back on a "insurance hike" narrative in an interview with Bloomberg TV. He added that inflation will stay high in 2026 and remain above target in 2027, while stressing data dependency and a meeting-by-meeting approach. On the future rate path, he kept options open for July and September. He finished by stating that the first round effects continue, which increases the chance of second round effects and that he is currently seeing pass-through of first round effects on wages.
• ECB's Wunsch told Econostream that the case for further tightening is receding and any surprise in EZ inflation before the July meeting is more likely to be on the downside. He added he would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening and that one hike could suffice if shock fades before significant second-round effects. More than one hike to depend on more persistence and stronger second-round effects.
• ECB's Demarco said the ECB should not rush into a further rate hike after the decline in oil prices, while he added the central bank can wait until next projections to decide if further hikes are needed, and that there are no signs of second-round effects, excessive wage pressures, or unanchored expectations.

Geopolitics

• Indirect US-Iran technical talks are reportedly underway in Doha, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators. The sessions are to involve chief negotiators and specialist teams, sources suggest, however US envoy Witkoff and Kushner will not be attending the talks themselves.
• Iran is reportedly insisting on retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to sources citing a senior Iranian official. Could see a recommence charging ships to transit from mid-August and are not going to discuss other points until Hormuz is agreed.
• US President Trump was briefed on all-out war options on Iran, but opted to stick with talks, while he told aides he's okay if talks go past the August 18th deadline, according to WSJ.
• US VP Vance said President Trump is ready to drop bombs again, while he added that they have two options, which are either to pursue a long-term agreement with Iran on the condition that it changes its behaviour, or consolidate the gains that they made. Furthermore, he said Trump asked them to use the memorandum of understanding to resupply the global economy with oil, then they will see how things develop, and they want permanent, verifiable commitments from Iran regarding its nuclear disarmament.
• US admin official said the US has not released any of the USD 6bln in Iranian frozen funds, and won’t until Tehran “performs”, according to NY Post's Doornbos.
• US official said ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz at higher levels.
• Iran State Media said that a foreign container ship ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz after using a route which was undesignated by Iran.
• Oman presented a proposal regarding the future administration of the Strait of Hormuz to the US and other allies, while the proposal outlines a system for shipping companies to pay "service fees" for using the waterway, though sources differ on whether Oman is actively pushing for a fee-based structure, according to CNN citing sources.
• Qatar's PM and Foreign Minister met with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, while they discussed the latest developments in the ongoing talks between the US and Iran, according to Qatar's Foreign Ministry.
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority cited a source that stated the start of the pilot phase in Lebanon has been postponed until a monitoring mechanism is reached between the Lebanese and Israeli armies.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 76NM south of Yemen; the vessel being approached by multiple small craft but the crew reported safe.
• North Korean leader Kim pledged to deepen ties with China on shared socialist values and dispatched a congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi, on the Chinese Communist Party's founding anniversary, according to KCNA.
• Pakistan's air defence system shot down four rudimentary drones launched by Afghanistan's Taliban regime, while Pakistan's armed forces warned that continued provocation by the Taliban would be met with a befitting response that would cost them heavily.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jun 26 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1%
• 8:15 am: Jun ADP Employment Change, est. 120k, prior 122k
• 9:45 am: Jun F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.7, prior 55.7
• 10:00 am: Jun ISM Manufacturing, est. 53.85, prior 54
• 10:00 am: Jun ISM Prices Paid, est. 77.5, prior 82.1
• 10:00 am: May Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%

Central Banks

• 9:00 am: ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Warsh, BOE’s Bailey, BOC’s Macklem
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Warsh Appears on Panel at ECB Forum

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There must be a lot of illness going round our floor today — looking at the team diary, an awful lot of people seem to be seeing a doctor. In fact, at 5pm sharp, it looks like everyone’s booked in with Dr Congo… let’s hope we all get a positive result.   

As it’s the start of the new quarter, Henry will shortly release our regular performance review for Q2 and indeed H1. The main headline was the signing of the interim US-Iran deal, which meant Brent crude oil prices (-38.4%) saw their biggest quarterly decline since the start of the pandemic in Q1 2020. So that meant stagflation fears receded, supporting bonds and equities across the board. In fact, the S&P 500 saw its best quarter since the post-pandemic rebound in Q2 2020, with a +15.2% gain in total return terms. That included an exceptional performance for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor (+88.0%) posting its best quarter since the index started in the early 1990s. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.   

Risk assets largely finished Q2 on a strong footing yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.79%) gaining for a second consecutive day. The biggest factor was the recovery in tech stocks, with the Mag 7 (+1.30%) up for a third consecutive day, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (+3.92%) posted another large gain. The rally was somewhat narrow with a majority of S&P 500 constituents lower on the day and just 8 of the 25 industry groups gaining. This left the equal-weighted S&P 500 -0.12% lower, while the small cap Russell 2000 underperformed (+0.46%) its large cap peers.

US data was mixed yesterday as strong job opening numbers were matched with weak housing and sentiment data. The JOLTS report for May added to the picture of labour market resilience from other recent releases. Job openings surprised on the upside, with 7.594m openings in May (vs. 7.296m expected). So that meant that the ratio of job openings per unemployed individuals reached 1.039, which takes it to the highest reading since January 2025. Moreover, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs (a good barometer for tightness in the labour market) held steady at 1.9%. And yet the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading missed expectations, coming in at 91.2 (vs. 94.4 expected), with the present labour market sentiment the weakest since 2021. Moreover, the overall present situation indicator fell to 116.4 (vs. 123.0 expected), marking its lowest level since February 2021 when the economy was still coming out of the pandemic. Consumer sentiment/confidence numbers have long decoupled from economic growth so we can't read too much into it, but the data is still striking. On housing, the FHFA House Price index showed a month-on-month decline in house prices (-0.1% vs +0.2% expected), with year-over-year home price appreciation now near its lowest levels since 2012.

However, the market keyed in on the strong job openings number and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack shortly after their release. She said in a CNBC interview that the US may “need higher interest rates to bring inflation back down to target”, and when asked about a July hike, said she was keeping an open mind at every meeting. So that raised speculation about a rate hike in just 4 weeks’ time, and market pricing for a July hike ticked up a bit to 34% by the close, up from 32% the previous day. Stand by for both Warsh and Lagarde speaking at Sintra today.  

Ahead of that, the hawkish newsflow led to a fresh selloff for US Treasuries, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+6.8bps) rising to 4.17%, whilst the 10yr yield (+9.1bps) hit 4.465%. There was a more muted reaction for European government bonds as yields on 10yr bunds (+0.3bps), OATs (+1.3bps) and BTPs (+4.8bps) all moved higher. This followed comparatively dovish European newsflow, with the flash CPI prints surprising on the downside in several member states. So the German print fell more than expected to +2.4% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +2.5% expected), whilst the French print also fell more than expected to +2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected).

So that raised hopes that today’s Euro Area-wide print might surprise on the softer side, and investors also dialled back expectations for ECB rate hikes this year, with just 23bps priced by the December meeting at the close, down from 27bps the previous day. Here in the UK however, 10yr gilt yields (+4.1bps) rose by more than elsewhere, which came as BoE Governor Bailey warned that inflation could still rise later this year. Otherwise in Europe, equities advanced across the board, with the STOXX 600 up +0.88% to a new all-time high. The move was clear across the continent, with gains for the DAX (+1.50%), the CAC 40 (+0.44%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.01%) as well.

Alongside the lower inflation prints, sentiment was also supported by oil prices holding steady, with Brent crude (-0.31%) down slightly on the day. This came as Bloomberg reported that US officials held positive discussions with GCC leaders in Qatar on Tuesday. There was further reporting from the Wall Street Journal overnight that President Trump had been briefed on potential war options but was opting to stay in talks and that he told aides that he was ok with talks continuing past the initial August 18th deadline. The dovish mood from the White House continues as the President seems reticent to restart the kinetic action and risk higher energy prices ahead of the November midterms.  

Asian equity markets have started H2 on a mixed footing this morning. The KOSPI (-0.70%) is leading regional declines, coming off one of its strongest quarterly runs in recent years. By contrast, improved manufacturing activity in Japan and China is supporting gains in Tokyo and mainland markets. The Nikkei (+0.63%) is moving higher, alongside both the CSI (+0.44%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.08%), while Hong Kong markets are closed for a public holiday. S&P 500 (-0.23%) and Nasdaq (-0.24%) futures are both edging lower.

Early data suggested that China’s manufacturing activity moderated slightly in June relative to May, although robust export performance helped keep overall activity in expansionary territory. The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.7 from 51.8, a three-month low, but still capped the strongest quarterly performance for the sector since Q4 2020.

In South Korea, exports surged by +70.9% year-on-year in June, accelerating from +53.4% in May and comfortably exceeding expectations. The increase was largely driven by strong semiconductor demand amid the global AI investment boom, reinforcing the Bank of Korea’s increasingly hawkish stance ahead of its July 16 decision. Separately, while factory activity expanded for a seventh consecutive month, the pace of growth eased slightly, reflecting softer export demand at the margin.

Elsewhere, the yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since 1986 overnight, currently at 162.72 (-0.10%) and fuelling speculation that Tokyo may be nearing direct intervention.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the US June ISM manufacturing index, ADP report, and May construction spending, along with the Euro Area flash CPI print for June. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Warsh, the ECB’s Lagarde, Vujcic, Cipollone and Lane, the BoE’s Bailey, and the BoC’s Macklem.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:35

ADP Employment Report Shows 12th Straight Month Of Job Gains

With jobless claims still hovering near multi-decade lows and Job Openings soaring, and despite near record low consumer sentiment (particularly about the labor market), ADP was expected to report another strong employment report this morning with the US economy adding 120k jobs.

The actual print was a disappointing +98k, but still represented the 12th straight month of employment gains...

Source: Bloomberg

Once again Small Business led the charge with hiring, but the gains were seen across all firm sizes...

Interestingly, only the Natural Resources & Mining sector saw job losses...

The median pay gain for job-stayers was little changed at 4.4 percent, while year-over-year pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 6.6 percent.

"The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"We know it's taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation."

Still, this is hardly the collapse in labor market sentiment that surveys are suggesting...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:22

Nike Turnaround Falters As UBS Says There's "No Reason To Buy" Stock

Nike shares fell 3% in premarket trading after the struggling athletic apparel giant warned on its earnings call that revenue declines over the next two quarters will be worse than previously expected, underscoring that there is still no immediate turnaround to halt a multi-year bear market that has driven the stock to decade lows.

"We are not expecting the environment to improve meaningfully over the next six months," Nike's outgoing CFO Matt Friend told investors on Tuesday evening.

Customers are "under pressure around the world, and we can particularly see it having a larger impact on sportswear," Friend added.

Nike now sees sales falling in the low-to-mid single digits, down from an earlier view of a low-single-digit decline. The slowdown is expected over the next six months and is mostly due to slower wholesale shipments in North America, among other factors.

The downbeat commentary offset better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and profits, which were largely in line with expectations. Management warned that the operating environment became "increasingly challenging" as the quarter progressed, with North America slowing by mid-April.

Our immediate takeaway is that Nike's reset remains ongoing, and any turnaround plan will likely take much longer than initially anticipated, continuing to pressure the stock.

UBS equity analyst Jay Sole, focused on retail, department stores, specialty softlines, apparel, footwear, and consumer discretionary stocks, was blunt with clients: "We don't see a reason to buy the stock."

Sole explained why clients should hold off for now from attempting to bottom-fish the stock, which is currently trading at 2014 levels:

The pivotal Nike question remains "Is all the 'bad news' now priced in?" Despite the pullback in Nike's stock price, we still don't see a good entry point. Nike's stock price is still not cheap at ~27x our FY27 EPS estimate, in our view, and this suggests a solid rebound remains priced in. We continue to see a balanced upside/downside skew. The main upside risk is Nike returns to positive sales growth with expanding gross margin faster than expected. Yet the main downside risk is the rebound takes much longer than the market anticipates. Nike's 4Q report did not cause us to change our thesis much.

Nike's 4Q report underscores upside and downside sales and margin risks:

1. Nike lowered its CY26 sales guidance, but there were bright spots within the outlook. Nike lowered its CY26 sales growth forecast to -L to -MSD% from -LSD %. We believe the main negative factor is Nike's fashion business continues to struggle. The issue is Nike's fashion business remains 50% of its sales mix. Nike may need to take this percentage much lower over time in order to reestablish itself at the world's best sports brand. If so, it could serve as a major, multiyear drag on Nike's top line. This is the main downside sales risk. At the same time, Nike's performance business grew 5% in Q4. Plus, the company sounded like it is in the process of replicating the operational improvements made in categories like running to other sports categories such as basketball, training, outdoor, and tennis. If so, this could lead to upside sales growth surprises over the NTM. This is the main upside risk, in our view.

2. Nike offset its lowered sales expectation with raised margin guidance. Nike boosted its GM% outlook slightly and trimmed its SG&A outlook in order to maintain its CY26 guidance. This was a mild positive surprise to us and Nike is citing its ability to continue to tightly manage costs as one means of restoring its EBIT margin back to 10% over time. However, Nike's average annual SG&A growth rate over the past 4 years (FY27e included) is just 0%. Our concern is Nike is underinvesting in future growth in order to limit near-term downward EPS revisions. Thus, a main downside margin risk is that Nike will have to ramp up SG&A more than expected to return to sustainable top-line growth.

We maintain our FY27, FY28, and FY29 EPS estimates:

We lower our FY27 sales growth forecast given Nike's plan to reduce its inventory buys. Plus, we see greater revenue pressure post Q1 as Nike moves past major sporting events like the world cup and laps elevated promotions on its digital channel. At the same time, we raise our operating margin forecast related to annualizing new efficiencies in Nike's supply chain and technology divisions. Plus we see slightly lower risk Nike's promotions

Separate analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal

• "Nike's sales recovery is likely to take longer as management tightens buys and sell-in to clear sportswear, Jordan, streetwear and China inventory, even as margin can expand sooner"

Citi analyst (neutral, PT to $45 from $47)

• Nike's sales are looking a little weaker, while margins are a little better.
• “After sales slowed in mid-April within 4Q26, June (1QTD) has improved, helped by excitement around global football"

Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel (buy, PT $60 from $74)

• The bottom line is that "we assume investors will still question whether Nike has 'ripped the band-aid' on earnings revisions"
• Trim price target on "recognizing ongoing noise and a general reduction in retail multiples"

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik (buy, PT to $75 from $90)

• The fourth-quarter report "came in ahead with kernels of progress solidifying in the base business"
• "Sportswear/Jordan Streetwear still the overhang, but not getting worse"

RBC Capital analyst Piral Dadhania (sector perform, PT $50)

• Revenues remain reliant on wholesale, whilst direct-to- consumer trends remain soft, which is "not likely sustainable mid-term"
• "Nike has delivered a mixed 4Q26 quarter (ex US tariff refund) with anticipated lack of underlying revenue momentum offset by more favourable FX translation benefit which flatters absolute gross profit"

According to Bloomberg data, there are 17 "Buy" ratings on the stock, with 23 "Neutral" ratings and 3 "Sell" ratings.

Read The Market Ear note on Nike's epic demise titled "Go Woke Go Broke: Nike Stopped Obsessing Over Athletes And Started Obsessing Over Activism."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:05

Outgoing UK PM "Proud To Have The Gayest Parliament Of All Time Anywhere In The World"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

As outgoing Kier Starmer prepares to depart amid cratering approval ratings and deep public disillusionment, his 'Pride' reception remarks this week reveal a leader more focused on cultural signalling than addressing Britain's pressing crises.

Starmer took to the stage at a Downing Street Pride reception to defend his government's LGBTQ+ record, even as scepticism grows within parts of that broad community and his wider popularity sits at dismal lows.

Starmer struck a defiant tone, insisting his administration would continue championing these issues. "I want to be clear that all lesbians, all gay, all bi and trans people - that this government will defend your rights," he declared. "We have to stand against the politics of division."

Can we please get back to having a serious country, rather than "the gayest parliament of all time anywhere in the world"? pic.twitter.com/6e7xzLIAky

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 1, 2026

He praised what he called global leadership in representation, stating Westminster is "the gayest parliament... anywhere in the world" and telling attendees to "celebrate that."

We really don't care about cocks in frocks, chutney ferrets or rug munchers.

What we do care about is our daughters being groomed or our sons being stabbed and the way our country has been hollowed out by immigration. We care about our elderly, our nation's security.

— ? Humbug ????????? (@_MrsBetSlocombe) July 1, 2026

So we actually need a government focused on delivering for the country as a whole regardless of their sexual preferences but we actually get a government striving to be the gayest. It's just pathetic

— Blue G ? (@Graham93201) July 1, 2026

I'd settle for the most practical, productive and least corrupt parliament, but I guess how gay you are is the metric now. ?

— Lee Strato (@leestrato) July 1, 2026

Was it for this men died in the air, at sea, in burning deserts, freezing mountains, stinking jungles and prison camps?

— The Lion In Winter ?? (@LordOfMundane) July 1, 2026

Starmer highlighted a "full trans-inclusive ban on abusive conversion practices," describing conversion therapy as "a very sinister idea... trying to suggest that identities aren't legitimate."

As we have highlighted, under Starmer's watch, authorities advanced measures on this front that risk criminalising parents who question their child's rush toward gender transition. A draft bill on "conversion practices" carries penalties of unlimited fines and up to five years in prison. Equalities Minister Olivia Bailey framed it as protecting against abuse driven by the "false belief that being LGBTQ+ is shameful."

Critics argue the vague language could ensnare normal family discussions, exploratory talks, or references to evidence questioning youth medical transitions.

This unfolds alongside school guidance permitting social transitions for four-year-olds and exam boards embedding pro-trans messaging in subjects like GCSE Spanish. Campaigners like Maya Forstater and Helen Joyce have warned of ideological capture in education.

Elsewhere during his Pride ramble, Starmer pointed to the HIV Action Plan aiming to end new transmissions by 2030 and changes to equalise hate crime strands, and announced £21 million for global LGBTQ+ rights and a new Special Envoy, framing the fight as "global."

Starmer positioned his government as restoring the UK's reputation after predecessors damaged it: "We are here to restore it." He closed by reaffirming personal commitment: "I will always fight for respect and dignity. It didn't start when I became Prime Minister. It won't end when I don't."

These remarks come as Starmer exits following his June 2026 resignation announcement, with approval ratings plunging to joint historic lows around net -46 or worse - among the poorest for any modern prime minister. Public sentiment has turned sharply against him, reflecting frustration with a tenure marked by perceived failures on everyday concerns.

While Starmer celebrates certain milestones, a closer look at his record reveals policies that have alarmed parents, heightened security risks, strained social cohesion, and eroded basic freedoms.

Persistent Failures on Grooming Gangs

Starmer's government has drawn intense scrutiny for its handling of grooming gang scandals, where systemic issues involving organised abuse in certain communities have long demanded robust action. Public trust eroded further amid perceptions of inadequate accountability and prevention efforts.

Mass migration as a tool of undermining social cohesion

Starmer's administration continued policies seen as weaponising migration while cracking down on those noticing demographic impacts and security failures.

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss recently directly linked surges in random violence to mass migration policies, arguing left-wing approaches deliberately erode the nation state and family. Relentless stabbings and assaults have fueled fury, with responses often focusing on suppressing discussion rather than root causes.

Banning Critics While Welcoming Extremists

The government has barred anyone it disagrees with from entering the country, including Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek shortly after she criticised Starmer, citing public good grounds despite her focus on cultural preservation.

In contrast, Starmer expressed delight at welcoming Alaa Abd el-Fattah, an activist with a track record of extreme posts including hatred toward white people, calls for violence against police and Zionists, and praise for figures like Osama bin Laden.

Starmer posted: "I'm delighted that Alaa Abd El-Fattah is back in the UK and has been reunited with his loved ones... Alaa's case has been a top priority." This occurred alongside record Channel crossings and hotel accommodations for arrivals.

Criminalising speech and humour

Britain under Starmer saw massively expanded efforts to police expression. Lucy Connolly, previously imprisoned for a post, faced threats of recall for sharing a satirical Maduro-style joke about Trump and Starmer. Probation cited it as poor behaviour after complaints of inciting violence.

Comedy writer Graham Linehan was arrested at Heathrow over three gender-critical tweets, held in a cell, and hospitalised with dangerously high blood pressure from the stress. JK Rowling condemned it as "totalitarianism."

Creating a dystopian mass surveillance apparatus

Proposals emerged to compel platforms to prioritise BBC content against "disinformation," part of broader controls including a thought police unit on migration narratives, crisis information blocking, and social media bans framed as safety measures but risking total oversight.

Starmer's exit leaves a country transformed by these priorities. As everyday Britons face rising costs, safety concerns, and restricted speech, the emphasis on niche cultural victories over national cohesion stands in stark relief.

It currently appears Stamer will simply be replaced by Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, without a leadership contest. Burnham is by all accounts even more left-wing and more focused on ideological virtue signalling causes than Starmer.

Only when a new general election is called will the British people be offered a chance to refocus on restoring seriousness, security, and the freedoms that once defined the country - before ideology supplanted reality.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:45

Container Ship Runs Aground In Hormuz Chokepoint

Hormuz vessel traffic continues to flow, but at a sharply reduced pace compared to the previous week, as US-Iran technical talks resume in Doha without senior negotiators meeting face-to-face.

Data research firm Kpler noted, "Hormuz traffic holds steady." 

Hormuz traffic holds steady

The Strait of Hormuz remained open and active on 30 June, with 34 verified crossings recorded and traffic evenly split by direction. The dataset showed a broad mix of commercial, energy-linked and support movements, while route visibility remained… pic.twitter.com/cVZHRte4Hy

— Kpler (@Kpler) July 1, 2026

The latest disruption in the strait, beyond the persistent threat of Iranian naval mines and suicide drones, was caused by a foreign container ship running aground after entering shallow waters outside the Iranian-designated shipping route.

Qatar-funded international news network Al Jazeera cites Iran's state media, which provided more details on the maritime incident early Wednesday:

A foreign container ship has run aground in the Strait of Hormuz after entering shallow waters outside ‌the shipping route designated by Iranian authorities, Iran's state media says.

The news report reiterated the Revolutionary Guard's warning that vessels should transit only through the corridor south of Iran'sLarak island, which Tehran says is the sole approved entry and exit route ‌for ships passing through the strait.

In a separate report, Bloomberg cites the Iranian Navy as saying that it "has repeatedly warned ship captains, owners and officials of global shipping companies that any entry or exit via routes other than the authorized one could lead to irreparable incidents."

Beyond the Strait, and focusing on markets, the beginning of the normalization process to reopen the critical waterway sent commodity prices sliding 9% month on month in June, as conflict fears eased following the US-Iran interim peace deal.

HSBC analyst Jamie Culling told clients:

Global commodity prices fell in June, with our index down by an average of 9% m-o-m, after having reached its highest level since Q3 2022 in May. In June, this left commodity prices up 14% year-to-date, down from 25% year-to-date in May.

The decline largely reflected the impacts of an improving outlook surrounding the US-Iran conflict, including increased traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz (see Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet, 25 June 2026). After the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up. The Brent oil benchmark fell to its pre-conflict level, reflecting an improved supply outlook.

Nonetheless, it is still early days. Transit rates through the Strait are still well below pre-war levels. Insurance is still expensive. Risks and uncertainty remain high, and the situation is fragile, highlighted by missile strikes from both sides over the past week which saw transits through the Strait of Hormuz dip (Bloomberg, 26 June).

Even as the broader news cycle has moved on and fatigue sets in, all things Hormuz, whether vessel traffic rates, insurance coverage, shipping costs, and Gulf export flows, will remain in focus this summer. The question is whether Tehran still retains full leverage over the waterway, or whether the normalization process has begun to dilute its ability to weaponize the world's most important maritime chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:20

The World Is Becoming Increasingly Divided By Fertility

The world is becoming increasingly divided by fertility.

One group of countries now has too few births to naturally replace its population, while another continues to see population growth driven by higher fertility rates. This demographic divide has major implications for aging populations, labor markets, immigration, and future economic growth.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins, shows which countries are above and below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, using projections for 2025 from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.

While the regional patterns are striking, several countries buck the trend.

Fertility Rates by Country

The table below lists projected fertility rates for 2025 and whether each country falls above or below the 2.1 replacement threshold.

Country Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Above or Below 2.1
(Replacement Rate) Chad 5.94 Above Somalia 5.91 Above DR Congo 5.90 Above Central African Republic 5.81 Above Niger 5.79 Above Mali 5.42 Above Angola 4.95 Above Burundi 4.68 Above Afghanistan 4.66 Above Mozambique 4.62 Above Mauritania 4.56 Above Mayotte 4.50 Above Tanzania 4.47 Above Benin 4.42 Above Yemen 4.41 Above Nigeria 4.30 Above Sudan 4.19 Above Cameroon 4.19 Above Ivory Coast 4.17 Above Togo 4.07 Above Uganda 4.06 Above Congo 4.05 Above Guinea 4.04 Above Equatorial Guinea 4.04 Above Burkina Faso 4.00 Above Zambia 3.97 Above Madagascar 3.84 Above Ethiopia 3.81 Above Gambia 3.80 Above Liberia 3.79 Above Comoros 3.76 Above Samoa 3.75 Above Senegal 3.71 Above South Sudan 3.71 Above Guinea-Bissau 3.68 Above Zimbabwe 3.62 Above Sierra Leone 3.61 Above Eritrea 3.61 Above Rwanda 3.59 Above Gabon 3.54 Above Malawi 3.53 Above Vanuatu 3.53 Above Sao Tome and Principe 3.53 Above Pakistan 3.50 Above Solomon Islands 3.47 Above Uzbekistan 3.45 Above Ghana 3.30 Above French Guiana 3.29 Above Nauru 3.25 Above Palestine 3.19 Above Iraq 3.17 Above Namibia 3.17 Above Tuvalu 3.14 Above Kenya 3.12 Above Kiribati 3.09 Above Tonga 3.07 Above Papua New Guinea 3.03 Above Tajikistan 2.99 Above Kazakhstan 2.95 Above Marshall Islands 2.82 Above Israel 2.75 Above Kyrgyzstan 2.75 Above Egypt 2.71 Above Guam 2.71 Above Micronesia 2.71 Above Eswatini 2.68 Above Algeria 2.67 Above Syria 2.66 Above Botswana 2.66 Above Lesotho 2.64 Above Turkmenistan 2.63 Above Saint Martin (French part) 2.63 Above Haiti 2.59 Above Mongolia 2.58 Above Djibouti 2.58 Above Jordan 2.57 Above Tokelau 2.57 Above Timor-Leste 2.56 Above Cambodia 2.51 Above Bolivia 2.50 Above Oman 2.48 Above Niue 2.46 Above Honduras 2.45 Above Paraguay 2.39 Above Guyana 2.37 Above Laos 2.36 Above Saudi Arabia 2.29 Above Northern Mariana Islands 2.28 Above Guatemala 2.26 Above Libya 2.25 Above Fiji 2.25 Above American Samoa 2.25 Above Lebanon 2.21 Above Suriname 2.21 Above Faroe Islands 2.20 Above South Africa 2.19 Above Dominican Republic 2.19 Above Morocco 2.18 Above Nicaragua 2.18 Above Western Sahara 2.15 Above Réunion 2.13 Above Bangladesh 2.11 Above Indonesia 2.10 Above Panama 2.09 Below Monaco 2.09 Below Myanmar 2.08 Below Seychelles 2.08 Below United States Virgin Islands 2.07 Below Venezuela 2.06 Below Guadeloupe 2.05 Below Belize 2.01 Below Cook Islands 2.00 Below Martinique 1.97 Below New Caledonia 1.95 Below India 1.94 Below Peru 1.94 Below Nepal 1.94 Below Sri Lanka 1.94 Below Greenland 1.91 Below Philippines 1.88 Below Vietnam 1.88 Below Gibraltar 1.88 Below Mexico 1.87 Below Palau 1.86 Below Tunisia 1.80 Below Montenegro 1.80 Below Ecuador 1.79 Below Georgia 1.79 Below Bahrain 1.78 Below Dem. People's Republic of Korea 1.77 Below El Salvador 1.75 Below St. Vincent & Grenadines 1.75 Below Bulgaria 1.74 Below Moldova 1.72 Below Romania 1.71 Below Armenia 1.71 Below Brunei 1.71 Below Qatar 1.70 Below Barbados 1.70 Below Falkland Islands 1.69 Below Iran 1.67 Below Azerbaijan 1.66 Below New Zealand 1.65 Below France 1.64 Below Australia 1.64 Below St. Helena 1.64 Below United States 1.62 Below Turkey 1.62 Below Colombia 1.62 Below Aruba 1.61 Below Brazil 1.60 Below Ireland 1.60 Below Slovenia 1.58 Below Antigua and Barbuda 1.58 Below Slovakia 1.57 Below Maldives 1.55 Below United Kingdom 1.54 Below Liechtenstein 1.54 Below Malaysia 1.53 Below Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) 1.53 Below Isle of Man 1.53 Below Portugal 1.52 Below Denmark 1.52 Below Trinidad and Tobago 1.52 Below Cayman Islands 1.51 Below St. Kitts & Nevis 1.51 Below Argentina 1.50 Below Hungary 1.50 Below Serbia 1.50 Below Kuwait 1.50 Below Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.50 Below Cape Verde 1.50 Below Iceland 1.50 Below French Polynesia 1.48 Below Czechia 1.47 Below Croatia 1.47 Below North Macedonia 1.47 Below Dominica 1.47 Below Russia 1.46 Below Germany 1.46 Below Grenada 1.46 Below Cuba 1.45 Below Bonaire 1.45 Below Montserrat 1.45 Below Netherlands 1.44 Below Sweden 1.44 Below Switzerland 1.44 Below Bhutan 1.44 Below Turks and Caicos Islands 1.44 Below Sint Maarten 1.43 Below Norway 1.42 Below Bermuda 1.41 Below Luxembourg 1.40 Below Wallis & Futuna 1.40 Below Belgium 1.39 Below Uruguay 1.39 Below St. Lucia 1.38 Below Jersey 1.38 Below Cyprus 1.37 Below Estonia 1.37 Below Guernsey 1.37 Below Bahamas 1.36 Below Latvia 1.35 Below Anguilla 1.35 Below Greece 1.34 Below Jamaica 1.34 Below Canada 1.33 Below Austria 1.33 Below Albania 1.33 Below Poland 1.31 Below Costa Rica 1.31 Below Finland 1.30 Below Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1.28 Below Japan 1.23 Below Spain 1.23 Below Belarus 1.22 Below Lithuania 1.22 Below Italy 1.21 Below United Arab Emirates 1.21 Below Mauritius 1.21 Below Thailand 1.19 Below San Marino 1.16 Below Chile 1.13 Below Malta 1.11 Below Andorra 1.10 Below Curacao 1.07 Below British Virgin Islands 1.06 Below China 1.02 Below Ukraine 1.00 Below Singapore 0.96 Below Puerto Rico 0.94 Below Taiwan 0.86 Below St. Barthélemy 0.83 Below South Korea 0.75 Below Hong Kong 0.74 Below Macao 0.69 Below The Great Fertility Divide

The divide is strikingly regional.

Europe is entirely below replacement fertility, joined by most countries across the Americas and East Asia. Meanwhile, most African countries, along with parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, remain above the replacement threshold.

The map also reveals several notable exceptions.

Geographic Pockets That Buck the Trend

While regional patterns are remarkably consistent, several countries stand out as exceptions to their neighbors:

• Central America: Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala all have fertility rates just over replacement. On both the north and south sides, virtually every other country in the Americas is below replacement.
• Africa: Tunisia is the sole country in continental Africa with a rate under 2.1.
• South America: There are two pockets of higher fertility: Peru and Paraguay, and the Guianas (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana).
• Middle East: UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain are below 2.1, while surrounding nations in virtually every direction are above replacement.
• South/Central Asia: A strip of connected countries, from Pakistan all the way up through Kazakhstan to Mongolia, has higher fertility. Bangladesh also stands out as higher fertility.
• Southeast Asia: Laos and Cambodia stand out as above replacement. Indonesia is the only country with exactly a 2.1 fertility rate, equal to replacement.

Most of these outliers are countries at different stages of the demographic transition than their neighbors.

Their fertility rates remain above or below replacement while surrounding countries have already moved in the other direction, creating pockets that stand apart from the broader regional pattern.

If you enjoyed today’s post, see Japan’s birthrate collapse over the last 60 years in this visualization on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:55

The US Should Exit The UN

Authored by Wendy McElroy via The Brownstone Institute,

The future of the United Nations (UN) is in play, largely because of its refusal to censure Iran—a member nation.

In May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reprimanded the UN:

“If you’re telling me that the international community and hundreds of countries cannot rally behind that, then I don’t know what the utility of the UN system is.” 

Severing all ties to the UN could require an act of Congress, but the US is moving in this direction. On February 4, 2025, Executive Order 14199 directed the US to withdraw from 31 UN organisations. A great deal hinges on how highly Rubio still prizes America’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council which comes with a veto.

The UN is often viewed as an ineffectual bureaucracy that occasionally does some good. It is nothing so benevolent. Its origins may have been well-meaning, but the current UN has become what it claims to oppose. The US should leave the UN altogether and immediately, especially since its unjust policies are likely to get worse…and soon.

The UN’s Original Mission

The UN Charter (1945) opens,

WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED…to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women…  

The Preamble of its Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) states, 

Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world,

Article 2 of the Declaration provides, 

Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex…

‘All human beings are equal’ is the basis of Western justice, whether the equality is under nature, God, or law. Instead of pursuing equality, however, the UN is now a woke and corrupt actor that creates inequality and division. The UN’s financial malfeasance, the sexual abuse by field personnel, its demonization of the West…are well documented in the 104-page report From Watchdogs to Ideologues: How Politicized UN Rapporteurs Are Subverting Human Rights by the Geneva-based NGO UN Watch. 

The UN’s demonstrated commitment is to social justice or a wokeness rooted in equity, not equality. Equity seeks the redistribution of wealth and power to those who are considered oppressed from those who are considered oppressors. Equity is the opposite of equality under the law.

Consider its treatment of men who clearly are not viewed as equal to women, as the UN’s mission claims. An obvious example is the prominent presence of the UN Women commission that claims to be “the global champion for gender equality.” The commission identifies its goal as ensuring “every woman and girl lives up to her full potential.” No mention of men or boys. No comparable UN Men agency, although males are included peripherally by recognizing a need to train them to oppose patriarchy. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) explains, 

UNFPA works with men and boys around the world to advance gender equality and end violence. These programmes are encouraging men and boys to abandon harmful stereotypes, embrace respectful, healthy relationships, and support the human rights of all people, everywhere.

Men face many of the same global problems as women, however, including poverty, lack of education, violence, disease and harmful stereotypes. Men also face unique problems, including male-only conscription, paternity fraud, false rape accusations, and longer sentences for the same crimes. Nevertheless, compared to the UN’s emphasis on women, men are virtually ignored. And deliberately so.

The UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) is considered by many to be the international bill of rights for women. Again, no comparable agency exists for men. The FAQ of one CEDAW branch speaks of substantive justice for women. 

Substantive justice judges fairness by results rather than a process; it favors the equitable distribution of rights, not equal rights. CEDAW states, “The concept of substantive equality arose out of the recognition that formal equality may not be sufficient to ensure that women enjoy the same rights as men. An ostensibly gender-neutral policy, while not excluding women per se, may result in a de facto discrimination against women.” 

Instead, in the name of equality, the UN discriminates against men. It denounces the “poison of patriarchy,” decries the manosphere, and discusses the anti-gender movement. The anti-gender movement is defined as groups with an agenda of harming radical feminist and LGBTQIA+ policies. Even questioning these policies or advocating parallel ones for men seems to be anti-gender. 

Earlier, I stated the UN’s policies are likely to get worse and soon. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres steps down on December 31, 2026. The leading contender as his replacement is the aggressively woke Michelle Bachelet, who launched UN Women and served as its Executive Director from 2010 to 2013. After this, she acted as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (2018 to 2022).

In between stints at the UN, Bachelet served two terms as President of Chile. A prominent member of the Socialist Party of Chile, she mandated 50% female representation in her Cabinet and instituted political quotas to boost women’s presence in government, as well as establishing a Ministry of Women and Gender Equality; again, no comparable Ministry of Men exists.

And, again, the equality pursued was equity because it applied privileges to women. 

While at the UN, some of the global initiatives championed by Bachelet included: 

• Safe Cities Free of Violence Against Women and Girls to address sexual violence in public spaces. The word “sexual” is key. Even the U.N. admits men experience more physical violence in public (81%) compared to women (19%). It is not clear the rate at which men experience sexual violence, however, as men report such abuse at a far lower rate than women.

• Fund for Gender Equality to provide money exclusively to women to empower them at the grassroots level. Males can access other U.N. gender funds but only in order to dismantle gender inequality, not to empower themselves. Men are to act as gender allies and “agents of change.”

• Increasing Women’s Access to Justice in Post-Conflict Societies to support transitional justice and women’s human rights in conflict and post-conflict zones. 

Everyone has the right to discriminate peacefully on his own time and dime. But the UN is primarily funded by mandatory assessed and voluntary contributions from its member nations; that is, by tax dollars extracted from individuals, half of whom are men and many who are dissenting women, like me. 

The good news: there are rumors of the UN’s financial collapse since some member states—most prominently the US—are withholding their contributions. The US alone owes $2.196 billion to the regular budget and $1.8 billion to separate peacekeeping operations, which amounts to about one-quarter of UN funding. Without it, the UN will be sorely diminished in status.

Good. And if the UN does collapse, then better.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:30

Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order

The Supreme Court on Tuesday struck down President Donald Trump's executive order curbing birthright citizenship. 

President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on January 20, 2025. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

In a massive 194-page, 5-4 ruling, the Court affirmed a District Court ruling, holding that Executive Order 14160 - Trump's attempt to deny automatic citizenship to children born in the U.S. to parents who are undocumented or only temporarily present - violates the Fourteenth Amendment's Citizenship Clause. Chief Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by Sotomayor, Kagan, Barrett, and Jackson.

Justice Kavanaugh provided the sixth vote against the order while explicitly rejecting the majority's constitutional theory, arguing the EO fails only because it conflicts with a 1940s immigration statute - leaving the door open for Congress, not the Constitution, to revisit the question.

BREAKING: The Supreme Court has ruled that the children of illegal aliens and foreign nationals born in the U.S. count as American citizens.

Roberts and Barrett joined all the liberals.

Disgusting. pic.twitter.com/FStIm0J3R3

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) June 30, 2026

Polymarket had it right on SCOTUS Birthright decision (it wasn't even close) pic.twitter.com/aIXK1g9kcz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2026

In response to the ruling, President Trump wrote that it was "too bad for our Country," but that Republicans can "easily make up for it in Congress through Legislation..."

Background

Birthright citizenship - the principle that nearly everyone born on U.S. soil automatically becomes a U.S. citizen - has stood as a foundational element of American law and identity for more than 150 years. Its modern constitutional anchor is the Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868 after the Civil War: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside."

The clause was enacted primarily to overturn the Supreme Court's 1857 Dred Scott v. Sandford decision (which denied citizenship to black people) and to guarantee citizenship to formerly enslaved people and their descendants. It established a clear rule of jus soli (citizenship by birth on the soil) with narrow historical exceptions, such as children of foreign diplomats or members of invading armies.

Original intent. Four Justices just threw it out. pic.twitter.com/OtGZOqCoY4

— NoNonsense2 (@NoMoNonsense2) June 30, 2026

The Supreme Court's landmark 1898 decision in United States v. Wong Kim Ark cemented this broad understanding. Wong Kim Ark, born in San Francisco to Chinese parents who were legal residents but ineligible for naturalization under then-existing exclusionary laws, was ruled a U.S. citizen. Justice Horace Gray's majority opinion affirmed that the 14th Amendment codifies "the ancient and fundamental rule of citizenship by birth within the territory, in the allegiance and under the protection of the country," applying to children of resident aliens without regard to race or the precise immigration status of the parents (beyond the traditional exceptions).

For well over a century, this interpretation has governed practice: federal agencies, courts, and both political parties treated birth on U.S. soil as conferring citizenship almost universally, regardless of whether a parent was undocumented, a temporary visa holder, or a lawful permanent resident.

The Modern Challenges

In recent decades, conservatives, immigration restriction advocates, and President Donald Trump have advanced a narrower reading. They argue that "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" requires a deeper form of political allegiance or domicile - essentially limiting automatic citizenship to children of U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents. In short: the clause was chiefly meant for freed slaves and their children, that extending it to children of undocumented immigrants creates "anchor babies," encourages illegal immigration and birth tourism, and imposes costs on the country. They point to certain 19th-century commentaries and historical practices in other nations as support.

On January 20, 2025 - his first day in office for his second term - President Trump signed Executive Order 14160, "Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship." The order directs federal agencies not to recognize U.S. citizenship for children born in the United States after February 20, 2025, in two main scenarios:

• The mother was unlawfully present in the U.S. and the father is neither a U.S. citizen nor a lawful permanent resident (LPR/green card holder); or
• The mother's presence was lawful but temporary (e.g., student, work, or tourist visa) and the father is neither a citizen nor LPR.

The administration maintains this is consistent with the 14th Amendment's original meaning and with the statutory codification in 8 U.S.C. § 1401(a), which largely tracks the constitutional language.

The Path to the Supreme Court

The order never took effect. Federal district courts in multiple jurisdictions quickly struck it down as unconstitutional, with one judge describing it as "blatantly unconstitutional." In June 2025, the Supreme Court addressed related procedural issues in Trump v. CASA (and companion cases), ruling 6-3 that district courts generally lack authority to issue universal/nationwide injunctions. This narrowed some protections but left the core constitutional question unresolved.

Today's SCOTUS case, Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365), stemmed from a class-action lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Hampshire. Plaintiffs include families challenging the order on behalf of themselves and a nationwide class of affected children. One named representative is "Barbara," a Honduran asylum applicant whose child was due in late 2025; other plaintiffs include individuals on temporary visas (e.g., a Taiwanese student whose daughter was born in April 2025) and a Brazilian applicant for permanent residence whose son was born in March 2025. The district court issued a preliminary injunction and provisionally certified a nationwide class, finding the plaintiffs likely to succeed on the merits. The Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment from the First Circuit.

During oral arguments held April 1, U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer defended the order - emphasizing historical sources, the role of "domicile" in Wong Kim Ark, and contemporary policy concerns. Plaintiffs' counsel Cecillia Wang urged the Court to reaffirm Wong Kim Ark as establishing a fixed, bright-line rule rooted in text, history, and longstanding practice.

One of the most destructive and outrageous decisions in the long history of the Supreme Court. American citizenship is not the birthright of the world. It belongs only and solely to Americans. No provision of the Constitution can be read to require our national self-obliteration. https://t.co/qZuwzZq5tr

— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) June 30, 2026

Questioning from the justices spanned the ideological spectrum and focused heavily on Wong Kim Ark, the meaning of "subject to the jurisdiction thereof," and whether the government's proposed limitations could be squared with precedent and the amendment's text. Observers noted significant skepticism toward the administration's position, with several justices highlighting the breadth of the 1898 ruling and questioning efforts to distinguish it or limit its application based on parental status. A decision was widely expected by the end of the Court's term (June 30, 2026) or shortly thereafter.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:55

Kremlin Confirms Rare Talks To Import Gasoline Amid Drone Strike Mayhem

Russia has confirmed its government is currently in negotiations with other countries to purchase gasoline while desperately seeking to stabilize its domestic market after months drone mayhem out of Ukraine.

"Discussions are actively being held," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing Tuesday, though without specifying which countries. "If agreements can be reached at acceptable price points, then [imports] will move forward," he added.

File image: UBN

The development is surprising given that Russia remains the world's second-largest crude oil exporter and third-largest supplier of refined petroleum products - and yet it is now facing the somewhat humiliating prospect of importing gasoline.

Last week, Reuters dropped a bombshell citing industry insiders who revealed that Moscow has been in backroom talks to import a staggering 50,000 metric tons of AI-92 grade gasoline from neighboring Kazakhstan. India has also been mentioned in reports.

President Putin just over the weekend estimated Russia's total gasoline reserves to be at at 1.7 million metric tons, which would constitute a 4% decline compared to the same period last year. Politico notes further:

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has described imports as one of the government's key tools for stabilizing the market, while Russian lawmakers last week approved tax changes creating subsidies to help finance gasoline purchases from abroad.

Putin had further in a speech and separate interview belatedly acknowledged Sunday that his country is facing a "certain shortage" of fuel following weeks of ramped-up drone warfare coming out of Ukraine, which has chiefly targeted oil refineries and domestic supply facilities, including in the Moscow region.

"As for strikes against critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, of course, these attacks on our infrastructure facilities create problems," Putin said. "That's obvious."

"Right now we're observing a certain shortage, but it's not critical," he added. He also made wide-ranging public remarks at a major summit of the ruling 'United Russia' party.

Some Western pundits have agreed that the situation is not yet critical, and that a fuel squeeze has been a long-running Ukrainian goal of its intensified drone attacks...

From October 2025 (for perspective): "Ukrainians hope [drone campaign] will persuade Putin to end the war at last...Increasingly severe gasoline shortages have hit multiple regions of Russia...half of the stations in Russian-occupied Crimea stopped selling gasoline..." pic.twitter.com/VILpIKhRK8

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) June 30, 2026

A state of emergency for all citizens was also declared in Crimea last week - with fuel only being provided to military and state entities at this point.

Putin further acknowledged in his recent comments that small, slow-moving drones have proven a problem for Russia's anti-air defense systems, which were conventionally designed to intercept large fast projectiles like missiles or warplanes.

This has been big on Russians' minds, as this month they beheld unprecedented scenes of massive smoke plumes overtaking Moscow's skyline, as a key refinery there burned. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:45

Police Flee During Riots In The Hague After Morocco Knocks Netherlands Out Of World Cup

Via Remix News,

After Morocco knocked the Dutch national football team out of the World Cup, rioting broke out this morning in The Hague, with dramatic footage showing Dutch motorcycle police fleeing from Moroccan supporters. Police also deployed water cannons to control the crowd and at least a dozen people were reportedly arrested.

The video of the Dutch police fleeing prompted a sharp reaction from anti-immigration political leader Geert Wilders, who wrote: "Sweep those streets clean and ship the riffraff with their families off to Morocco. This is our country. Get lost!"

Veeg die straten schoon en zet het reltuig met familie uit naar Marokko. Dit is ons land. Wegwezen! #NEDMAR #Schilderswijk https://t.co/IR8pLKIcnO

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) June 30, 2026

Moroccans gathered in the streets, blocking traffic, and chanting with Moroccan flags. Some supporters danced on car roofs. Many of them are Dutch citizens and second- and even third-generation citizens.

Police regrouped and conducted baton charges, deployed water cannons, and made targeted arrests. A spokesperson said that water cannons were deployed after police were targeted with stones and fireworks.

JUST IN: Dutch police use batons on migrants celebrating Morocco's win over the Dutch national team in the World Cup

Dozens of arrests reported in The Hague after rioting broke out. Water cannons have also been deployed.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/LYVeC5Ua79

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 30, 2026

JUST IN: Bottles fly at police and water cannons are deployed in The Hague after Morocco defeats the Netherlands in the World Cup.

Apparently, these 2nd- and 3rd-generation migrants are not big fans of the Dutch national team. Dozens have been arrested.pic.twitter.com/5i5qskRr6W

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 30, 2026

With the Moroccan football team advancing in the World Cup, police across Europe are likely to be nervous about upcoming football games involving the North African team.

In previous years, Moroccan victories at football sporting events have led to mayhem and mass riots. In fact, it was already in 2022 that Wilders was urging mass deportations in reactions to major riots following victories of the Moroccan national team.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:00

Heat Mortality Surges In Europe

Heat-related mortality in Europe has surged over the last couple of decades.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, according to the latest available data published by the Lancet Countdown 2025 Report, between 2012 and 2021, 5.5 people per 100,000 population died of heat-related causes per year on the continent.

This is almost double the annual rate observed between 1992 and 2021.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Similarly rapid surges were observed over the same time period in Asia-Pacific as well as in the Americas.

However, heat deaths stayed on a lower level in these regions and reached only an annual 3.4 and 2.1 in 100,000, respectively, during the last decade.

All three continents in question have an aging population, making heatwaves more deadly as it is older people who predominantly succumb to heat-related causes.

But Europe is also less prepared than other continents for a changing climate as its many temperate regions have not built for the heat and have traditionally neither been equipped for it, may that be in terms of air conditioner ownership or knowledge of ways to stay cool.

Hotter (and younger) regions of the globe have not seen the same developments in heat-related mortality, even though they do experience consistently higher levels of it.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East as well as South and Southeast Asia, brutal heatwaves claim the lives between nine and 14 people per 100,000 every year.

In all three regions, this figure has changed by at most 10 percent since the 1990s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 04:15

Ukraine's Desperate Propaganda Campaign While Russia Advances Along The Entire Front

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western backers have launched a desperate 40-day "campaign of terrors" — which includes a mix of military escalations and a massive information/psyops operation designed to portray Russia as collapsing and Putin as facing an imminent uprising or coup. The goal is to force Russia into a ceasefire. Western audiences are being flooded with social media and regular media articles that paint a dire picture of Russia’s military campaign, while touting Ukraine’s incredible accomplishments. It is all a load of crap, but that is all the West has left in its quiver as Russia’s campaign of attrition continues to pulverize Ukraine.

The Western-led propaganda campaign consists of the following elements:

• Information Warfare — Heavy push of 24/7 propaganda about Putin’s “imminent downfall,” including staged videos of supposed Russian soldiers announcing a mutiny.
• Fake Psyops — Coordinated attempts to stoke panic in Russia (e.g., false claims of fuel/gas shortages, which were partly caused by panic buying triggered by the rumors).
• Symbolic Actions — Staged drone flag-drops (e.g., on the Kinburn Spit near Crimea) meant to symbolize Russian retreat and collapse — quickly debunked and mocked.
• Broader Objective — Combine these narratives with actual strikes on Russian infrastructure to create the impression of regime instability, pressuring Putin politically.

Now for the reality. Yes, Ukraine has hit some Russian refineries and created some spectacular visuals of billowing smoke and fire. However, this is nothing more than military political theater that is intended to distract from Ukraine's setbacks all along the front. As a side note, Russian oil exports have increased during this same period, putting to bed the narrative that Russia’s oil industry in suffering catastrophic losses.

via Reuters

Here is a summary of Russian activity, starting in the Northern section of the front:

Sumy Direction

In the Sumy direction, the “North” assault groups advanced on 19 sectors, and some units of Ukraine’s 104th Territorial Defense Brigade abandoned their positions in Bachevsk. Russian forces continued active operations along the border, conducting strikes on Ukrainian positions and logistics. They reported repelling multiple Ukrainian attempts to cross into Russian territory and inflicting significant losses on enemy manpower and equipment. Russian soldiers are now only a few kilometers from Sumy itself.

Kharkiv Direction

Russian troops advanced in several sectors north and northeast of Kharkiv. The MOD reported the liberation of additional border settlements and improvement of tactical positions. Russian Geran drones conduct a series of high-precision strikes on gas infrastructure in Kharkiv region overnight. A gas distribution station near Panyutino was struck — disabling gas storage tanks, gas pumping plants, and a gas treatment facility. The Skvortsovskaya gas treatment system near Kosogorovka was also hit.​​ Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled, with Russian artillery and aviation playing a key role in degrading enemy capabilities.

Donetsk Direction (Primary Focus)

Donetsk remains the main direction of Russian offensive operations. Russian troops are steadily advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, with Russian forces capturing multiple settlements and pushing toward key logistical nodes. The most notable achievement is in Konstantinovka, where Russian units have taken control of most of the city and disrupted Ukrainian supply lines. With both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka gone, Russia controls the two southern and eastern approaches that previously buffered the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. The H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and the T-0504 Bakhmut-Pokrovsk highway — both of which Russian forces had been fighting to seize specifically to link these two axes — now forms a contiguous corridor under Russian control, allowing logistics and force concentration to flow directly toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk without contesting two separate urban battles.The Russians also are advancing around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, including gains in urban fighting and elevated positions.

Overall, the Russian MOD described consistent liberation of territory, high daily Ukrainian losses, and effective use of glide bombs, drones, and artillery to support ground advances.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro region)

In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade captured Bogodarivka, the third settlement in three days since crossing the Dnieper River. Russian forces continue conducting regular long-range strikes (missiles and drones) on military-industrial targets, energy infrastructure, and logistical hubs in the oblast. Key targets included defense factories, repair facilities, and rail nodes supporting the Ukrainian front.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

In the Zaporozhye area, Russian forces have blocked a Ukrainian bridgehead in Aleksandrovka and have reached the southern outskirts of Pokrovskoye. After Russian forces took control of Novy Donbass, they advanced towards Shevchenko and Svetloye, isolating Ukrainian forward positions with drones. Russian forces maintain pressure through artillery, drone strikes, and localized assaults, destroying Ukrainian strongholds and equipment while holding defensive lines.

Kherson Direction

Operations remained largely positional along the Dnipro River. The Russian MOD highlighted successful strikes on Ukrainian crossings, logistics, and manpower concentrations on the right bank. Russian units conducted raids and maintained control over left-bank positions.

In other words, the Russian summer offensive is underway and Ukraine, despite its propaganda offensive, is retreating to the west.

*  *  *

Disclaimer: Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 03:30

These Countries Are Building The Most Small Modular Nuclear Reactors

The U.S. is leading the world in small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) development with 28 siting announcements, as of 2026.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Cody Good, in partnership with the National Public Utilities Council, shows which countries are building the most SMRs.

The U.S. Leads Global SMR Development

With 28 siting announcements, the U.S. has more SMR projects in development than the next four countries combined.

 

Source: The Nuclear Energy Agency

Only 78 of 129 SMR designs being tracked by the NEA are publicly reported in the digital dashboard. The rest have either requested not to be included or are not under active development.

Across the U.S., national laboratories lead in siting announcements (7), followed by a three-way tie among utilities, universities, and SMR developers (5 each).

Why Small Modular Reactors Matter

SMRs are a critical clean-energy technology that are cheaper and more flexible than traditional nuclear power generation.

• Small: SMRs can produce up to 300 MWe, far less than traditional reactors, which typically produce around 1,000–1,400 MWe. 
• Modular: SMRs are designed for mass factory manufacturing to reduce cost and build time.
• Reactor: The four main reactor types are light water reactors, fast neutron reactors, graphite-moderated high temperature reactors, and molten salt reactors.

Their compact, modular design enables easier transport and deployment ideal for data centers or remote sites where grid connection is costly or unnecessary.

The Role of SMRs in the Future of Power

As electricity demand accelerates, SMRs are becoming an increasingly important part of conversations around grid reliability, energy security, and clean firm power. 

For utilities and policymakers, tracking where these projects are emerging can help inform planning, policy, and long-term strategy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 02:45

Will Denmark Really Ban The Islamic Call To Prayer?

Via Remix News,

Denmark’s government, led by the center-left Social Democrats, has once again announced plans to pursue a nationwide ban on the public broadcast of the Islamic call to prayer via loudspeakers. This now amounts to the third time the center-left government is trying to ban the call to prayer.

Immigration and Integration Minister Morten Bødskov stated that the government is investigating a legal framework to prohibit amplified calls to prayer from mosques.

“The call to prayer should not ring out above the Danish rooftops. It has no place in Denmark; one should not wonder if one is in a suburb of Islamabad when walking around the country,” he told the press.

However, this is the third attempt by the ruling party, with previous efforts in 2020 and 2025 failing to pass. Will the third time be a charm?

One of the major hurdles is that Danish law protects religious freedom, and any blanket national ban on amplified calls to prayer has raised concerns about violating the rights of Muslims. The government needed to investigate whether such a prohibition could withstand legal scrutiny when balanced against residents’ rights to a quiet environment. Past efforts stalled during this review process without advancing to enforceable legislation.

Furthermore, many areas of the country have already banned the call to prayer, such as the biggest city, Copenhagen. These areas have achieved this through existing local noise bylaws or municipal regulations, reducing the urgency for a sweeping national law. This has historically made a new nationwide framework harder to justify or pass.

One attempt to ban the call to prayer was also reportedly interrupted by parliamentary elections, which led to a shift in government priorities at the time.

Denmark is arguably the Scandinavian nation most hostile to mass immigration, with the left-wing parties there considered to have right-wing policies on the issue. However, parties to the right, which call for remigration and even stricter action, argue that legal migration, including from Third World and Muslim countries, has been steadily increasing under the left-wing Social Democrat government.

The current immigration minister, Bødskov, is actually considered “softer” on immigration than his predecessors, such as Rasmus Stoklund and Kaare Dybvad Bek, who were known for their harsher rhetoric against mass immigration. His tough public statements are often viewed as necessary political positioning to align with the party’s established tough stance towards immigration under Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, rather than his personal views on the subject.

Nevertheless, it remains unclear how far Bødskov is willing to go or if this announcement is more political posturing. The Danish government is reviewing legality, including compatibility with religious freedom protections in the constitution. The current effort would move beyond local noise regulations to a national prohibition, but no final bill has been introduced yet, and implementation details, such as the exact scope and potential penalties, are still at the discussion phase.

While this renewed push builds on Denmark’s stricter immigration and integration policies, including a recent ban on Islamic full-face veils like the niqab and burqa, it remains to be seen if the government can pull this new proposal off.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 02:00

Empire At 250: Can The Principles Of 1776 Survive The American Police State?

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rurtherford Institute,

“The people are the only legitimate fountain of power.”

- James Madison

This is a year of strange anniversaries.

Two hundred and fifty years ago, a band of revolutionaries declared their independence from a king.

America’s founders rejected concentrated power. They denounced standing armies. They distrusted government secrecy. They risked their lives to escape a ruler who could tax without consent, wage war without accountability, and govern without meaningful restraint.

Twenty-five years ago, after the attacks of September 11, 2001, America embarked on a very different journey.

The federal government claimed extraordinary emergency powers. Surveillance expanded. Wars multiplied. Executive authority grew. Constitutional safeguards were weakened in the name of security.

One anniversary marked a revolt against empire. The other marked the normalization of it.

Now, as America prepares to celebrate 250 years of independence, we are confronted with a bitter irony: the republic born in rebellion against empire has become an empire in everything but name.

Worse, the U.S. government is violating the very principles that justified the American Revolution.

Graft, grift and corruption. Endless wars. Profiteering. Trillions squandered abroad while the nation sinks deeper into debt at home.

A government that governs increasingly by executive order and emergency decree. A government that wastes taxpayer money with impunity, rewards political loyalty over constitutional fidelity, installs loyalists in positions meant to serve the public, dismantles safeguards against corruption, shields insiders from scrutiny, and treats accountability as an inconvenience.

National states of emergency that never seem to end. Efforts to nullify constitutional guarantees such as birthright citizenship. Expanded death penalty powers. A growing willingness to bypass Congress, sidestep constitutional restraints and rule by fiat.

Surveillance programs that track where we go, what we buy, who we know, what we say and what we believe. Fusion centers, facial recognition, license plate readers, AI-assisted monitoring, financial tracking, intelligence-sharing agreements and a sprawling security apparatus that treats privacy as a loophole and dissent as a threat.

Military action undertaken without congressional authorization. National Guard deployments that blur the line between civilian government and military authority. The militarization of policing. Federal agents arresting people at courthouses. Protesters treated as security threats. Legal residents threatened with deportation because of their political speech and associations. Immigrants and asylum seekers swept up in raids, detained, deported or disappeared into a bureaucratic maze before courts can fully review the legality of what has been done.

Whistleblowers, journalists, activists and critics targeted for speaking truth to power. Expanding “extremist” classifications that increasingly encompass lawful speech, political dissent and ideological opposition rather than criminal conduct.

This is not freedom.

This is the architecture of a police state.

Nor is this merely the accumulated rot of past administrations.

Republican and Democratic presidents alike helped build the machinery of permanent emergency. They expanded the surveillance state, normalized undeclared wars, empowered the military-industrial complex, deferred to intelligence agencies, and taught Americans to accept secrecy, suspicion and fear as the price of safety.

Donald Trump inherited that machinery.

Then he weaponized it.

No modern president has done more to expose the danger of allowing so much power to accumulate in one office.

Trump did not invent the imperial presidency, but he has shown what happens when a president treats constitutional limits as obstacles, dissent as disloyalty, the courts as irritants, Congress as irrelevant and federal power as a personal weapon.

Nor has he hidden his intentions. From efforts to consolidate authority within the executive branch to the installation of loyalists whose allegiance appears directed more toward a president than the Constitution, the Trump Administration has tested the limits of executive power in ways that would have alarmed the generation that fought the Revolution.

We have also witnessed growing efforts to sideline due process protections, weaken the ancient safeguard of habeas corpus, expand detention powers, and normalize the notion that constitutional rights can be suspended whenever government officials invoke national security, immigration enforcement or emergency necessity.

This is what happens when a government built for emergencies never leaves emergency mode.

The danger is no longer hypothetical.

The tools of authoritarianism exist.

The police state machinery exists.

The surveillance apparatus exists.

The permanent war powers exist.

The question is who controls them—and what remains to stop them.

The American Revolution was not fought over minor policy disagreements. It was fought over the danger of unaccountable power. The colonists objected to a king who could deploy troops, impose taxes, conduct searches, punish dissent and wage war without meaningful consent of the governed.

The Declaration of Independence was not merely a list of grievances.

It was an indictment.

King George III had made the military superior to civilian authority. He had maintained standing armies without consent. He had cut off trade, imposed taxes, obstructed justice and transported colonists overseas for trial.

Time and again, the Declaration returned to the same central complaint: concentrated power had become a threat to liberty.

The Revolution was not fought over a tax on tea.

It was fought over the danger of a government that had placed itself above the people.

When the framers later gathered to draft the Constitution, they did so with those lessons fresh in mind.

The founders understood that power is inherently expansive. Given enough time, every government seeks more authority, more secrecy and more control.

That is why they created a constitutional system in which power was divided. The branches were intended to restrain one another. No person was to be trusted with too much authority.

Yet history shows how quickly constitutional restraints weaken in times of fear.

John Adams signed the Alien and Sedition Acts and criminalized political dissent.

Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus.

Woodrow Wilson prosecuted anti-war activists.

Franklin Roosevelt ordered the internment of more than 120,000 Japanese Americans.

Richard Nixon weaponized federal agencies against political opponents.

Each expansion of executive power was justified as necessary.

Each left constitutional scars.

Then came September 11, 2001.

In the months and years that followed, Congress passed the USA PATRIOT Act, vastly expanding government surveillance powers. The Department of Homeland Security was created. Military tribunals were revived. Warrantless surveillance became commonplace. Watchlists multiplied. Fusion centers spread across the country. Indefinite detention became normalized.

War abroad justified surveillance at home.

Terror threats justified government secrecy.

National crises justified executive emergency powers.

What began as a response to a terrorist attack gradually became a governing philosophy.

Twenty-five years later, the emergency state has become embedded in the architecture of government.

Every crisis expands executive power.

Every war contracts liberty.

Every emergency leaves behind powers that rarely disappear.

This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls.

Presidents of both parties have inherited extraordinary powers and expanded them further. Congress has repeatedly surrendered responsibilities it was meant to exercise. Courts have increasingly deferred to executive claims involving national security, immigration and emergency authority.

The result is a government that often functions by executive decree rather than representative self-government.

Executive orders increasingly substitute for legislation. National emergencies become permanent governing authorities. Constitutional guarantees such as birthright citizenship are challenged by presidential decree rather than constitutional amendment. Congress is bypassed. Courts are treated as obstacles. Separation of powers becomes a formality rather than a safeguard.

The presidency has evolved into something the framers would scarcely recognize.

What Donald Trump has done is expose the fatal flaw in the system Americans allowed to be built after 9/11: once government is handed the machinery of permanent emergency, all that remains is for the wrong person to seize the controls.

For decades, Americans were told not to worry.

We were told surveillance powers would only be used against terrorists.

We were told emergency powers would only be invoked during genuine crises.

We were told national security authorities would remain subject to constitutional limits.

We were told the Constitution’s checks and balances would hold.

We were told no president would ever be allowed to exercise such powers without meaningful restraint.

They were wrong.

And we were wrong to trust power to restrain itself.

The lesson is the same one the founders learned from bitter experience: power granted in the name of necessity rarely remains confined to necessity.

Every emergency becomes a precedent.

Every precedent becomes a power.

Every power becomes permanent.

The founders also warned against standing armies and perpetual war.

Having lived under military occupation, they understood that governments organized around war inevitably become organized around power.

What they feared was not merely the presence of soldiers but the rise of a permanent warfare state—a government that uses conflict, fear and national security as justification for expanding its authority.

Today, those dangers extend beyond foreign battlefields. National Guard units are increasingly federalized and deployed domestically. Military tactics, equipment and personnel continue to flow into civilian law enforcement. The line separating the soldier from the police officer grows fainter with each passing crisis.

Look around.

The United States has spent much of the last quarter century engaged in military operations somewhere in the world. Wars are launched without formal declarations. Emergency powers become permanent. Defense budgets swell while domestic needs go unmet. Intelligence agencies operate with extraordinary secrecy. Technologies developed for foreign battlefields migrate into local police departments and domestic surveillance programs.

Today, even as the Trump Administration and its so-called War Department continue to pound the war drums, Americans are once again being told to trust government officials operating behind closed doors, often with little public debate and even less accountability.

The founders understood a simple truth: governments that prepare constantly for war eventually begin treating their own citizens as potential enemies.

That is the logic of empire.

Enemies abroad justify surveillance at home. War powers abroad justify police powers at home. National security becomes the excuse for secrecy, militarization, censorship, detention and control.

Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the rise of the surveillance state.

Long before shots were fired at Lexington and Concord, colonists were outraged by writs of assistance—general warrants that allowed British agents to search homes, businesses and personal property without meaningful justification.

Those abuses helped inspire the Fourth Amendment.

Today, government agents no longer need to kick down your door to invade your privacy.

Your cell phone tracks your movements. Your vehicle reports your location. Your purchases reveal your habits. Your social media activity exposes your associations. Your digital footprint creates a detailed record of your life.

Government agencies can access location data, financial records, license plate readers, facial recognition databases and vast stores of personal information, often with little transparency and even less oversight.

Meanwhile, Congress continues to renew and expand surveillance authorities while intelligence agencies deepen information-sharing arrangements with domestic and foreign partners. Americans are increasingly monitored not because they are suspected of wrongdoing, but because technology has made mass surveillance possible and government has found it useful.

The surveillance state has no borders. Nor does it have clear limits.

Government agencies increasingly rely on broad and elastic “extremist” classifications that often extend beyond violence or criminal conduct to encompass lawful speech, political dissent and ideological opposition.

What begins as a tool to identify dangerous actors inevitably expands into a mechanism for monitoring unpopular viewpoints. Information collected for one purpose is shared for another. Data gathered abroad finds its way home. Intelligence systems built to monitor foreign threats are repurposed to watch domestic populations.

King George’s agents needed boots and battering rams to search your home.

Today’s government can search your life without ever leaving its desk.

And then there is the matter of accountability—or rather, the lack of it.

The Declaration of Independence repeatedly condemned a government that had placed itself above the law.

That grievance remains painfully relevant.

Government officials who violate constitutional rights are frequently shielded from accountability by doctrines such as qualified immunity. Secret courts authorize secret programs. Bureaucrats operate behind layers of classification and administrative complexity. Government agencies routinely fail audits, lose records, misuse surveillance powers and exceed their authority, yet meaningful consequences remain rare.

Meanwhile, ordinary Americans face an entirely different standard.

When government officials make costly mistakes, taxpayers foot the bill.

When unconstitutional policies trigger lawsuits, taxpayers foot the bill.

When unlawful detentions result in settlements, taxpayers foot the bill.

When militarized raids, wrongful arrests, surveillance abuses and civil-rights violations generate years of litigation, taxpayers foot the bill.

Even now, Americans are being asked to absorb the financial costs of government misconduct on a staggering scale—from unlawful enforcement actions and unconstitutional executive orders to politically motivated spending schemes and settlements designed to shield those in power from scrutiny.

The public pays for the government’s mistakes while those responsible often walk away untouched. In some cases, public office itself has become a vehicle for private gain, with self-enrichment schemes, conflicts of interest and insider favoritism blurring the line between public service and personal profit.

The pattern is impossible to ignore.

Profits are privatized. Power is centralized. Accountability is deferred.

The bill is sent to the American people.

Whether it involves unlawful surveillance, unconstitutional arrests, retaliatory investigations, speech-based censorship, ICE raids that terrorize communities, warrantless tracking, civil asset forfeiture, the targeting of whistleblowers, journalists and activists, endless wars or political corruption, the pattern is the same: power protects itself.

The founders did not risk their lives because taxes were too high.

They risked their lives because government had become detached from the people, insulated from accountability and convinced that power justified itself.

Sound familiar?

The uncomfortable truth is that many of the abuses that sparked the American Revolution have returned, only this time they arrive wrapped in the language of national security, public safety, emergency management and administrative necessity.

The faces have changed. The technology has changed. The rhetoric has changed.

The danger remains the same.

Which brings us back to this strange anniversary year.

The 250th anniversary of American independence should have been an opportunity to renew our commitment to limited government, constitutional accountability and the principle that no one is above the law.

Instead, the lesson of 9/11 is being repeated in a different form.

Twenty-five years ago, fear became the pretext for permanent emergency.

Today, patriotism is becoming the backdrop for presidential spectacle, military pageantry and the celebration of the very concentration of power the American Revolution was fought to resist.

Much of the celebration has been transformed into a spectacle of power: military displays, patriotic pageantry, strongman politics and the elevation of political leaders into larger-than-life figures whose authority is expected to be admired rather than questioned.

Yet the founders did not launch a revolution so Americans could celebrate authoritarian power.

They launched a revolution to remind future generations that power is dangerous, liberty is fragile and no ruler should ever be elevated above the Constitution.

For 250 years, Americans have treated the Declaration of Independence as the nation’s birth certificate.

What we have failed to recognize is that the Declaration of Independence was also a warning: freedom is fragile, power is relentless, and no generation remains free simply because a previous generation fought for liberty.

As America approaches its 250th anniversary, the most important question is not whether the nation survived. Nations survive. Empires survive. Governments survive.

The real question, as I make clear in Battlefield America: The War on the American People and its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, is whether the principles that inspired the American Revolution survived as well.

Thus, the question is not whether America survived 250 years.

The question is whether the principles of 1776 can survive the American police state.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 23:25

Trump Reports Over $1.4 Billion In Income From 2025 Crypto Earnings

President Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from his family's crypto-related ventures alone last year, according to a financial disclosure released Tuesday, including from his meme coin business and his family's cryptocurrency firm.

The 927-page filing, his annual disclosure for 2025 with ‌the US Office of Government Ethics, disclosed that Trump made $636 million in royalties from CIC Digital, LLC, a company that issues $TRUMP, a crypto token that he launched three days before taking office for his second term. Almost all of the come came in the form of royalties from a license agreement with Celebration Coins. Trump's meme coin reached its peak value of $74.24 within a day of launching. On Tuesday evening, its price was $1.67, down 98% since inception.

The president also reported almost $600 million in income from token sales by World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company backed by the president and his family, and around $65 million from equity sales in the firm that controls World Liberty Financial. Another $196 million in equity sales of Stablecoin Holdco LLC are also listed. A crypto firm and issuer of tokens, World Liberty Financial was launched during the 2024 presidential campaign. It was co-founded by the president, his sons Eric and Donald Jr. and Zack and Alex Witkoff, the sons of U.S. special envoy and longtime Trump friend Steve Witkoff.

World Liberty Financial's ventures include USD1, a "stablecoin" pegged at $1 per coin that's designed to serve as a store of value. It also sells another crypto product, $WLF tokens, and takes 75% in net revenue from those token sales, according to the company's public reports.

The company drew scrutiny last year, after an Abu Dhabi government-owned wealth fund used the USD1 stablecoin to facilitate a multibillion-dollar investment in the massive crypto exchange Binance. The co-founder of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, received a pardon from Trump for financial crimes. The president has denied any connection between the pardon and the World Liberty Financial transaction, telling CBS News last year: "I don't know who he is."

In response to questions about the financial disclosure, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News "there are no conflicts of interest."

I analysed the 900+ pages of the Trump financial disclosure report.

He extracted 1.1 BILLION from crypto, divided like this:

> $635.1M → TRUMP memecoin
> $236.3M → WLFI token sales
> $196.9M → Sale of ownership interests in the USD1 stablecoin venture
> $65.6M → Sale of… pic.twitter.com/F9Uaf1HbCV

— dethective (@dethective) June 30, 2026

"This is the same, tired narrative that Democrats have pushed against President Trump, his family, and his administration for a decade," Kelly said. "President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public – which is why they overwhelmingly re-elected him to this office, despite years of lies and false accusations against him and his businesses from the fake news media."

The 927-page filing, released Tuesday by the US Office of Government Ethics, provides a view into his sprawling empire, including income from his hotels, golf resorts and cryptocurrency ventures. 

Trump's crypto-related income vastly eclipsed his earnings from many of the real estate businesses that helped make him famous. Those included around $77 million in income from his Mar-a-Lago club, $122 million from his golf club in Doral, Florida, and upwards of $30 million apiece from golf clubs in Jupiter, Florida, Bedminster, New Jersey, and Turnberry, Scotland.

The filing offers a detailed accounting of the various other ways the president's name generates money. An ethics official noted that Mr. Trump received a 45-day extension to file the report and "paid late filing fees related to transactions not previously reported" on earlier disclosures.

Trump, who’s worth an estimated $7.6 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, valued more than two dozen assets at more than $50 million, including Mar-a-Lago; his Turnberry, Scotland, golf resort; and his stake in Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., which owns his Truth Social platform.

The president reported $4.7 million in royalties from "Trump Watches," along with payments from Trump-branded sneakers, fragrances and guitars. Trump Restaurants LLC, a New York-based entity wholly owned by one of the president's holding companies, reported nearly $2.9 million in food and beverage sales, according to the filing.

And his books continued to pay out - including roughly $1.9 million from "Save America" and smaller sums from "The Art of the Deal," "Letters to Trump," "A MAGA Journey" and an edition of the Bible in collaboration with singer Lee Greenwood.

First lady Melania Trump's ventures also appear. The filing lists more than $10.7 million in net proceeds from a license agreement tied to the film "Melania," about $6 million from the sale of NFTs and other collectibles and additional proceeds from her memoir.

The president also listed several of his legal settlements with tech and media companies, including $16 million from a lawsuit against ABC, $16 million from CBS Broadcasting and CBS Interactive, $24.5 million from Meta, $22 million from YouTube and $8 million from X. Most of that money was paid to his future presidential library or the Trust for the National Mall, not to the president personally. 

As with last year's financial disclosure, Trump listed several court judgments against him as liabilities, including a penalty in a civil fraud case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James and two multimillion-dollar judgements owed to E. Jean Carroll, who accused the president of sexual abuse and defamation. (Trump has denied those allegations.)

The civil fraud judgment was tossed out last year by a panel of appellate judges who found the requirement for him to pay nearly $527 million in fines plus interest was "excessive," though they left non-financial penalties intact. The Supreme Court this week declined to hear Trump's appeal of the jury verdict in the Carroll cases.

Officials disclose the values of their holdings in broad ranges with “over $50 million” the highest, which means that they can’t be used to calculate an individual’s net worth.

The Trump Organization has said that the president’s holdings are independently managed by third-party financial institutions who have control over all investment decisions, with trades executed through automated processes. Trump, his family members and his company play no role in making transactions, according to a spokeswoman.

Trump’s disclosure also showed that he has a new pledged-asset line with Charles Schwab Corp.’s banking business that totals more than $50 million. The line of credit has an interest rate of 3.9%, according to the filing. A spokesperson for the financial firm had no immediate comment.

Last but not least, the document also show Trump reported receiving 10 tickets to the soccer World Cup finals in July from FIFA head Gianni Infantino valued at $15,000, 10 tickets to the US Open tennis tournament from sponsor Rolex worth $25,000, as well as 10 tickets to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans estimated at $50,000.

Vice President JD Vance also disclosed assets for him and his wife, Usha Vance, worth more than $7 million.

The full filing is below (pdf link)

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 23:06

Israel Tests Upgraded Laser-Guided Iron Dome System After Harsh 'Lessons' Of Iran War

Israel's famed Iron Dome air defense system has undergone a significant upgrade, and the country's defense ministry is hailing new successful advanced tests, touting that it is now immensely better at countering aerial threats such as cruise missiles and drones.

Israeli officials are tacitly admitting that a major overhaul was needed based on lessons learned both in the June 2025 aerial war with Iran and the Iranian retaliatory attacks in the opening month of Operation Epic Fury.

By pretty much all accounts both within and outside Israel, Iran's missiles - some of them reportedly hypersonic - inflicted severe damage on Israeli cities, bases, and infrastructure. A key Tel Aviv military-intelligence headquarters in the heart of Tel Aviv was also struck, possibly on several occasions.

Getty Images

Israel's censorship regimen worked in overdrive both during the June war and Operation Epic Fury, with critics charging that the true extent of Iranian projectiles evading Israel's anti-missile defenses will never ultimately be known.

But open-source videos and live-action info alone confirmed the failures on many levels of the country's multi-layered defense, including of the Iron Dome.

This is why Israel has a deep political incentive to signal both its domestic population and the world that "all is well" and that the Iron Dome has been "upgraded". According to Israeli media:

The trials were led by the Ministry of Defense's "Wall" Directorate, part of the Directorate of Defense Research and Development (DDR&D), in partnership with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. The testing incorporated operational lessons learned during the ongoing war and recent operations against Iran.

According to the Ministry of Defense, the upgraded Iron Dome demonstrated enhanced capabilities against complex attack scenarios while introducing technological improvements aimed at handling higher volumes of incoming fire and longer-range threats.

This included the testing of the new high-power Or Eitan laser weapon system into system's command-and-control network. The laser is meant to assist as an additional layer of defense in pinpointing inbound threats.

WATCH: Israel touts successful tests of the upgraded Iron Dome, which integrates high-power laser in advanced air defense trials:

🔴 WATCH: Israel successfully tests upgraded Iron Dome, integrates high-power laser in advanced air defense trials pic.twitter.com/8d3AvFHRS4

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 30, 2026

Moshe Fattal, head of the Ministry of Defense's "Wall" Directorate, stated "The Iron Dome remains a central pillar of Israel's multi-layered defense concept. During the test, we also practiced integrating the laser system into Iron Dome's command-and-control network, taking the system's defensive capabilities to new heights."

So far Iran's ballistic missile and drone arsenal has proven quite capable at evading Israeli defenses, but perhaps in a future round of fighting Israel's upgrade will prove its worth. In the meantime Iran has already reconstituted much of its missile production capability. The Trump administration seems to have dropped its demand that Iran drop its missile program, which was obviously a non-starter in negotiations, given no country would just willingly give up its main method of defense from external attack.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 23:00