Aggregator
Three Factors Leave Salty-Snack Demand Stale
UBS analyst Peter Grom, who covers U.S. consumer staples including packaged food, beverages, and household products, served up a sour outlook for the salty-snack category, warning that the recovery investors had hoped for remains further out than expected.
"Despite recent optimism around a potential recovery in salty snacks, our analysis would suggest the category remains challenged. While tracked channel growth has turned positive relative to prior periods, we have observed momentum beginning to moderate with L13W $ takeaway growth decelerating to +1.2% vs. the +3.4% peak growth seen earlier in the year," Grom began the note.
Grom pointed out that the salty-snack category remains under pressure from a confluence of headwinds, including rapid GLP-1 adoption, potential SNAP benefit reductions, and mounting macroeconomic challenges faced by cash-strapped consumers.
"The combination of GLP-1 adoption, potential SNAP benefit reductions, and broader consumer spending pressures tied to the current geopolitical conflict has weighed on snack demand," the analyst said.
Grom noted that the Nielsen data show little evidence of a robust recovery, with buy rates, purchase frequency, spending per trip, units per trip, and overall projected sales all slowing. The category is also losing share to "better-for-you" options.
A Recovery Remains Uncertain
Snack trend down
He pointed out that competitive pressure has greatly intensified, adding that Pepsi remains the junk food king, with nearly half of category sales, but most large incumbents are generating flat-to-negative growth across tracked channels.
Pepsi's Frito-Lay North America food unit has experienced negative sales growth for much of the past year and continues to lose share despite investments in pricing, promotions, merchandising, and shelf space.
Another pressure point has been declining sales at convenience stores. He said C-store salty-snack sales, historically a strong growth engine, fell 3.5% in the latest 13 weeks as higher pump prices weighed on traffic and impulse purchases. Another headwind at C-stores has been the decline in SNAP sales.
Related consumer trend coverage:
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Energy Drinks Become Latest Casualty As Fuel Shock Shifts Consumer Behavior
One takeaway from Grom's note is that the confluence of pressures mentioned above has collided across the salty-snack aisle, derailing the recovery investors had hoped would take shape this year.
Professional subscribers can read more about consumer trends at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:45Anthropic to meet White House over AI tool suspension
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Trump Details Iran Deal At G7: No Nukes, Conditional Sanctions Relief
Summary:
- Iran will not have a nuclear weapon under the new deal.
- The agreement includes strong policing and enforcement powers.
- Trump: Obama’s JCPOA was a horrible deal that led toward a bomb.
- Past U.S. payments to Iran were a failed bribe attempt.
- Sanctions relief will only happen if Iran complies with terms.
- Iran gets no money or relief just for signing the deal.
- A deal has been electronically signed by Iran's Ghalibaf, according to US officials cited by CNBC
- Opening the strait will take time due to mines, and to expect an increase in traffic in 1-2 weeks
- Details to be released in 24-48 hours
- Trump: Ships starting to move through strait or Hormuz
- Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal
- Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
CNBC is reporting that a deal between the US and Iran has been electronically signed by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. According to an unnamed US official, the US-Iran MOU provides for the 'immediate' reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however - while President Trump said earlier that ships were beginning to move, the US official then said that reopening the strait would 'take time' due to mines, and that we can expect an increase in strait traffic over the next 1-2 weeks.
Trump addressed reporters and allies at the G7 summit in France on Monday, just hours after a major interim agreement with Iran that includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he repeatedly underscored that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was the central achievement of the deal.
“The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers.”
🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: "The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon!"
"They fully agreed to that with strong POLICING powers and they won't have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about because they probably would have used it if they had it."
"So… pic.twitter.com/izXsxj7vkE
He then compared it to the Obama-era JCPOA, calling the earlier agreement “a horrible deal for the United States” that had put Iran on “a road to a nuclear weapon” while sending billions of dollars to Tehran. Trump was also sharply critical of past U.S. cash payments to Iran, describing the $1.7 billion withdrawal from banks plus tens of billions in additional spending as a failed attempt to “bribe them to make a deal that didn’t work.”
🚨 BOOM! President Trump is now publicly OBLITERATING Barack Hussein Obama trying to "BRIBE" Iran with CASH to no success
"$1.7 billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran and on top of that tens of billions of dollars was spent. So they tried to bribe them to make a… pic.twitter.com/uzp1r070kg
On the current arrangement, Trump stressed that any sanctions relief would be strictly behavioral and tied to compliance rather than granted simply for signing. He noted improved relations with Iran’s current leadership and reported that the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, with mines being cleared and commercial shipping set to resume fully by Friday. Markets reacted immediately, with stocks surging and oil prices posting their biggest drop in some time.
🚨 JUST IN: Overseas, President Trump says he's GETTING ALONG WITH IRAN, the market is SURGING and oil prices are DROPPING
47 just made massive history!
"The Strait is already partially open, as you know they're doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already… pic.twitter.com/UAHoCs1JBn
Trump also called for an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, saying the long-running conflict “should NOT be tough” to address and that “we have to have a little talk with them.” Less than 24 hours after the Iran developments, he revealed he had already spoken with both President Zelensky and President Putin, describing the conversations as “very good” and expressing optimism that progress could be made to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, where he noted roughly 25,000 people are dying each month.
🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump not even 24 HOURS after ending the Iran war just spoke with Putin and Zelensky to try and end the UKRAINE war
This man is going all-out for peace!
"Very good conversation yesterday with President Zelensky and President Putin. And I see maybe we can… pic.twitter.com/XDrhgQgyuT
Details of the MOU will be released over the next 24-48 hours, though one US official said that the MOU contains 'possible' $300 billion in reconstruction funding.
Ghalibaf notably came into public view for the first time in weeks in April to lead the Iranian delegation in talks in Islamabad with US Vice President DJ Vance - marking the highest-level contact between the two foes since before the 1979 Islamic revolution.
TrumpPresident Trump on Monday claimed on Truth Social that commercial ships loaded with oil are transiting the Strait of Hormuz followinmg an announced deal to end hostilities with Iran.
"Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz," he wrote. "They are going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!"
Keep an eye on it here.
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/Sunday evening Trump announced that the US and Iran had reached a tentative deal to end the war which was started by the Trump adminisgration and Israel on Feb. 28.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it had agreed to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) - according to state-run outelt IRNA.
VP VanceNot even 24 hours after President Trump declared a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and just 30 minutes before New York futures opened Sunday evening, the administration already had Vice President JD Vance beginning a media roadshow to calm investor nerves and boost confidence.
Vance began the Monday roadshow on CNBC, providing more details on the U.S.-Iran deal, as uncertainty is the market's worst fear.
Vance said the U.S.-Iran deal is moving ahead despite what he called MSM "misreporting."
"The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process," Vance told the outlet, adding that Israel will have a seat at the table. Vance also stated that all Iranian government factions are represented in the talks, with several Iranian representatives expected at Friday's signing ceremony.
On the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, Vance said the strait is already seeing increased traffic and is expected to remain open toll-free over the long term, not just temporarily. He added that Iran would need resources to rebuild, but those resources would not be available without a nuclear deal.
Summary of discussion via CNBC:
Vice President JD Vance on Monday said after the U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal that there are "a lot" of details that remain to be ironed out, but he expressed confidence that America has "all the cards" in subsequent talks.
The agreement reached Sunday would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and set up a framework for future negotiations about Tehran's nuclear program and other key issues.
The text of the preliminary deal has yet to be released. Vance, on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Monday morning, said the deal's two major prongs are reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clinching a long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon.
He indicated that if Iran abides by the deal's commitments, it will be rewarded with loosened economic sanctions or other barriers, allowing Tehran "to be reinvited into the world economy."
Vance is also expected to join CBS Mornings to discuss the U.S.-Iran peace deal. It is likely that Fox Business and other outlets will follow, as the administration must repair any political damage from four months of war with Iran, which created uncertainty on Wall Street and sent the national average for gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for 2.5 months.
VIEWER ALERT: @VP Vance joins @CBSMornings 🌞 just after 8am ET to discuss the emerging U.S.-Iran deal.
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) June 15, 2026Let the roadshow begin...
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await ReopeningThe U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.
According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for "services" tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.
Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.
There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.
The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar's sake, years.
"From the bridge and the engine room where we're sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say," said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world's largest ship management companies.
Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, "We've seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds."
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, "Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up."
Singh noted, "But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding."
Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that "the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher."
Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:
Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May
Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment
Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping Stocks To Watch
Professional subscribers can read much more about the Hormuz chokepoint on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:30California nurse miraculously survives massive helicopter crash during Baja 500
"Dangerous Precedent Of Censorship And Sanitization": Biden-Appointed Judge Enjoins Removal Of Slavery And Climate Displays
George Santayana famously said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. The same is true for judicial overreach. Those judges who yield to the temptation to counter policies that are not to their liking are likely to repeat such excesses of power. That is why the recent decision of U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley in Boston is so concerning. While there are good-faith reasons why some have objected to the removal of slavery and climate change exhibits from national parks and monuments, this is not about the merits but the authority to make such changes. Kelley’s recent injunction smacks of judicial excess rather than measured review.
Judge Kelley, a Biden appointee, issued a preliminary injunction at the behest of groups representing park conservationists, historians and scientists, who argued that the U.S. Department of the Interior has been engaged in a “sustained campaign to erase history and undermine science.”
The complaint is heavily laden with subjective views of historical relevance that are obviously not shared by the Administration. These interpretations were installed under the discretion of the Biden Administration. They were removed under the same inherent discretion of the Trump Administration.
In March 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order reversing his predecessor on what he viewed as a “revisionist movement” that portrayed the U.S. as “inherently racist, sexist, oppressive, or otherwise irredeemably flawed.”
He ordered the Interior Department to make changes to parks, monuments and memorials to address any “false revision of history” that the White House said had occurred in recent years.
Some of the displays discuss the abuses of indigenous populations or the enslavement of persons at these sites. I happen to agree with the Court that such context is important for citizens to fully appreciate our history. The issue, however, is who legally decides on such interpretive displays.
For example, I strongly disagreed with the African American Museum in the exclusion Justice Clarence Thomas from displays of great African Americans. While I supported those in Congress seeking answers from the Smithsonian, I never viewed the material as a violation of federal law or worthy of judicial intervention. Notably, these historical groups and experts did not file actions in federal court to force his inclusion.
That was, of course, the individual decision of one museum. However, the question is why the Administration can make such individual decisions rather than department-wide or branch-wide decisions. Likewise, it is difficult to see the limiting principle here. If President Trump said that he wanted to emphasize certain elements like patriotism and these displays were substituted, would that also be a violation of federal law?
The challengers invoked federal law to argue that the Trump Administration was wrong and that the action was therefore arbitrary and capricious. The action is based on loose interpretations of the National Park Service Organic Act, the National Park Service Centennial Act, and the National Parks Omnibus Management Act, as well as the Administrative Procedure Act.
Judge Kelley chastises the Administration for removing displays that “do not align with its preferred narrative.” However, the original displays were themselves a preferred narrative by the prior Administration.
Judge Kelley invokes generally worded federal laws to require the Administration to seek out and heed the wisdom of historical experts on such questions, despite the views of other experts who agree with the action.
She declared that the removal of the displays not only undermines “the integrity of the National Parks; it sets a dangerous precedent of censorship and sanitization.”
The court notes that “the Secretary’s Order fails to provide any reasoned justification for its directive to review and remove interpretive material.” Yet, that would seem abundantly obvious from the cited Executive Order and the purpose of the change. The real question is whether this type of action requires more than the exercise of discretion. Agencies and offices routinely make such decisions on displays. The only difference is a branch-wide order.
The court’s cited authority is itself vague and undefined. For example, Judge Kelley holds that “The Order mentions the Organic Act and the FLPMA as ‘Authority’ but does not explain its relationship to those statutes, such as how the removal of interpretive materials comports with the Organic Act’s mandate to ‘conserve’ and to ‘provide for the enjoyment’ of park resources. 54 U.S.C. § 100101(a).”
The Administration is citing the sweeping discretion afforded under federal law.
However, the Court suggests it can micromanage the branch in making decisions about interpretative displays under this language.
Once again, I may agree with these historians on some of this material but it is immaterial — as immaterial as Judge Kelley’s qualms.
In my view, the court’s analysis is deeply flawed and should be reversed.
Here is the decision: National Park Conservation Association v. Department of the Interior
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Could Trump's Fable 5 Export Curbs Slow China's AI Model Race
The biggest AI story to start the week is the Trump administration's decision to place export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, forcing Dario Amodei's frontier AI lab to restrict foreign access.
The move comes as Chinese open-source models have been rapidly closing the compute gap with U.S. labs. Anthropic's latest release appears to have widened that gap again, particularly in frontier reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity use cases.
Export controls could have second-order effects on the global AI race, according to analysts at Jefferies. By limiting access to Anthropic's most advanced models, Trump officials may slow the pace at which foreign developers, particularly in China, can study, benchmark, or distill these advanced frontier models into cheaper open-source systems.
"US models are improving at a faster pace, likely due to computational advantage, but anti- distillation and US export control are new negatives for China AI," the analysts wrote in a note on Sunday.
The key question now is whether Fable 5 and Mythos 5 include stronger anti-distillation safeguards to prevent Chinese labs from replicating or compressing Anthropic's advances into open-source models. If so, the export curbs may not just be about access. They may represent a broader effort to protect America's AI lead.
To understand the full AI model landscape, not just in the West but also in the East, Bank of America analysts, led by Alex Liu, penned an insightful note on Monday morning about leading Chinese models.
Liu wrote that China's AI model market is moving into a two-speed global structure, with U.S. labs likely to retain the lead in frontier capabilities while Chinese players gain share in lower-cost, high-volume use cases.
She noted that Chinese models are narrowing the gap through efficiency gains, architecture optimization, distillation, and lower-cost inference, making them increasingly affordable.
Liu said AI labs at Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu are racing against independent labs, such as DeepSeek, Zhipu, MiniMax, and Moonshot AI.
Who's who in the China AI model market
Incumbents
- Major internet companies such as ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent—many of which have established cloud businesses—have developed proprietary AI foundation models in-house.
Independent AI labs
- DeepSeek, MiniMax, Zhipu, and Moonshot AI are independent AI labs
China AI model landscape is intensely competitive
Investing landscape of Chinese AI labs
Liu's view is that China AI has shifted from a frontier story to an affordability story. But with the U.S. government now able to halt foreign access to advanced models, as it just did with Anthropic's Fable 5, it appears increasingly difficult for Chinese labs to copy, distill, or reverse-engineer U.S. frontier models.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:05