By Michael Every of Rabobank
With US stocks up, the Nasdaq with its longest winning streak since 2021, and screen oil down for a second day in a row, markets continue to price the starkly binary physical outcomes smack in front of us on the side that’s full of stardust.
The IMF just warned of a potential world recession ahead if Hormuz stays shut. Its latest three global growth scenarios are ‘weaker’, ‘worse’ and ‘severe’ - “because markets”, and politics, the Fund chose the most benign as its base case, even as “downside risks are clearly very elevated.” That’s as Spain, for example, just released 4 of their 90 days of strategic oil reserves, with another 8 to follow. While that leaves 78, even if Hormuz reopened tomorrow, it would take at least 60 and possibly as many as 150 days before normal oil flows could be restored, according to IEA. Imagine driving home in a convoy through a blazing desert in an air-conditioned car knowing you all have 50 miles of fuel in the tank, and the next station is 30 miles away… and then hearing on the radio that it could be shut, and the following one is at least 60 miles away. That’s where much of the world economy stands now – and markets are opting to pump up the radio and aircon and say, ‘The next station will be open and I want a slushy.’
Most governments are doing the kind of pumping oil wells aren’t:
Brussels is pitching a “state subsidy bonanza” to combat the energy shock which “goes much further than the current state aid rules.”
Canada’s PM Carney, who ran two central banks, has suspended federal taxes on gasoline and diesel.
Malaysia is to increase its biofuel mandate.
Provided the war ends soon, those kinds of policies could cushion the economy: but across all schools of economic thought, textbooks are clear about what demand-side boosts into structural supply-side shocks do – leave you stuffed.
So, to the war. CENTCOM says no ships passed the Iran blockade in the first 24 hours. Moreover, the US Treasury says is not renewing its temporary easing of Iran oil sanctions and has sent notices to China and Hong Kong asking for help in enforcement. The US is clearly escalating hard vs Iran despite messages pinging yesterday that a sanctioned Chinese vessel, Starry Rich, had transited Hormuz, ignoring IF an interception was to be made, it would be in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea; then clarified the vessel was carrying methanol from the UAE, not fuel from Iran, so wasn’t in scope; then the ship turned round anyway. Some press today claims the Saudis, who’ve been pushing the US to finish the job vs. Iran, are now pressuring it to ease the blockade in fear of a Red Sea counter-blockade that hasn’t taken place yet: more fog?
Yes, there will be more US-Iran talks in Pakistan, possibly tomorrow, which is the lodestar market bulls are guided by. As the Telegraph notes, this seems to be the one place that Iran’s battered leadership can physically meet without being killed: but what will they say that’s different from the last rejection of US demands on uranium, nuclear weapons, missiles, proxies, and Hormuz? Vice President Vance has reiterated Trump wants a “grand bargain” with Iran, not “a small deal,” and one that sees it abandon its nuclear ambitions. Trump has added that he wasn’t happy with the proposed 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment offered in Pakistan and wants a permanent end to the matter. Israel is also stating that the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium is a “threshold condition” for it ending its Iran campaign – though the head of Mossad chief has additionally declared, “Our mission isn’t over until regime falls.”
The question is perhaps if any grand bargain is only US-Iran, or will involve others, as top Russian and Chinese envoys meet in Beijing to discuss Iran, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Yet showing how complex this gets as our global crises conflate, Ukraine, now providing anti-drone tech to the GCC, which aids Israel, has asked Jerusalem to detain a Russian ship carrying stolen grain that just docked in Haifa, which will infuriate Moscow. The US is elsewhere suggesting Cuba is complicit in helping Russia fight Ukraine, both countries being flashpoints between DC and Moscow. Isolated, Europe is drawing up plans for keeping Hormuz open once the war is over, which, beyond any aid with minesweeping, logically won’t be needed: if the war is over, energy will flow. The EU proposal is notably modelled on its Red Sea Aspides force, which failed to reopen it to normal trade flows.
On a positive note, if assuming ‘escalate to deescalate’, Israeli and Lebanese envoys just held an historic summit in the US to discuss a peace deal. As the Israelis put it, “Lebanon wants to be liberated from (Iran-backed) Hezbollah… we discovered today that we’re on the same side of the equation.” By contrast, France, with its Sykes-Picot-logical focus on Lebanon, insists Hezbollah has to be included in these talks aimed at removing it, so has been deliberately excluded from them.
On exclusion, after attacking the Pope, Trump has now done the same to Italian PM Meloni for “lacking courage”: the EU will need that and more fiscal spending again given the Wall Street Journal report it’s accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case Trump pulls out – or waters his commitment down: “Article 5, Shmarticle 5.” Militarily, 5% of GDP would need to be spent on defense a lot sooner than the 2035 planned if so, and the Journal notes Europe would need to reinstitute a draft in order to get the necessary personnel. Yet in terms of providing muscle for any Rules-Based Order 2.0 without the US, Europe’s primary military power, France, just had to scale back its participation in key Balikatan naval exercises in the Philippines to a mere 15 participants.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times warns of a ‘China shock 2.0’, this time with a flood of high-tech goods “that will change the world” - or at least deindustrialize other parts of it. Bloomberg matches that with a report underlining that India’s plans to develop its own manufacturing base are hamstrung by China’s controls over the critical tech supply chain within that sector. The Nikkei Asia argues China is snapping up US chip tools via Southeast Asia sources (in the same way that many Chinese exports to the US are being transshipped via third parties), which from a neo-mercantilist perspective again makes the case for a global economy fragmented into geopolitical trade blocs.
That reality is one of the reasons I’ve argued lies behind this Iran war, both in terms of control of oil and the related IMEC trade corridor; and it’s why escalation will continue until the economic pain is so great that one side submits.
Yet will the unfolding slow-motion catastrophe in the background get key global players to cooperate before it’s too late? Only time will tell; and it’s a binary outcome; and while your car journey as you ponder this may be comfortable for now, the fuel tank is still the fuel tank, and the blazing desert is still the blazing desert. And as I type that, I just heard the following play on my radio:
“Now I understand; What you tried to say to me; And how you suffered for your sanity; And how you tried to set them free; They would not listen, they did not know how; Perhaps they'll listen now.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:15Eos Energy Enterprises’ stock jumped over 60% in the last few days as investor enthusiasm grew around its scaling production and role in powering AI-driven infrastructure demand, according to the International Business Times.
The company designs, develops, manufactures, and markets energy storage solutions for utility-scale, microgrid, and commercial and industrial applications in the United States. The stock surge builds on earlier momentum after the company reported strong preliminary Q1 2026 revenue of $56–$57 million. Growth was fueled by higher shipments, improved output, and better manufacturing efficiency at its Pennsylvania facility, signaling progress in ramping up its second production line.
This positive update helped ease concerns from earlier setbacks, including missed 2025 revenue guidance and ongoing class-action lawsuits tied to production projections. While legal risks remain, recent operational gains have renewed investor confidence.
IBT writes that Eos is positioning itself to meet rising electricity demand from AI and data centers, highlighted by a new partnership aimed at rapidly deploying large-scale power solutions. Its zinc-based batteries—seen as safer, cheaper, and more domestically sourced than lithium alternatives—are gaining attention as utilities and tech firms seek reliable energy storage.
Looking ahead, the company expects 2026 revenue between $300 million and $400 million, with improving margins as production scales. A $701 million backlog supports future growth, though profitability, cash needs, and execution risks remain concerns.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic and broader market optimism and policy support for U.S.-based energy solutions have also contributed to the stock’s recent strength.
Overall, Eos appears to be at a turning point. Continued manufacturing progress and successful contract wins could solidify its position in the energy storage sector—but uncertainty and risk remain part of the story.
Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:00