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BofA Sees "Runaway Price Risk" In Spot Sulfur As Global Supply Chain Freezes

Sulfur is a critical industrial input produced as a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas processing. With roughly half of the world's seaborne sulfur trade trapped behind the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, another 15% stuck in Kazakhstan due to export-logistics blockades, and demand destruction still insufficient across global markets, Bank of America analysts warn that spot sulfur prices have further upside potential.

Matthew DeYoe, research analyst at BofA Securities, covering all things ag, materials, and chemicals, wrote in a note, "The market is working through unprecedented supply shortages, and prices are inflecting accordingly. Spot sulfur is now ~$1,200/mt, vs a more normal <$200/mt longer term price."

"The inflation is destroying demand across some industries, notably phosphates and pulp & paper, but we are not killing demand fast enough, and margins for metals like copper and lithium are strong enough to keep prices bid," DeYoe noted.

DeYoe said his team spoke earlier this week with Fiona Boyd of Acuity Commodities about global sulfur and sulfuric acid markets, coming away with a clear takeaway: the market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, yet demand destruction has not gone far enough. With supply trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint, export logistics disrupted in Kazakhstan, and metals producers still able to absorb higher input prices, Boyd warned that spot sulfur prices likely have more upside from here.

DeYoe warned, "Hormuz + Kazakhstan + Russia = runaway price risk."  

He explained further:

Roughly 50% of the world's seaborn traded sulfur is caught behind the SOH and another 15% is trapped in Kazakhstan given export logistic blockades. In total this represents ~30% of the world's sulfur capacity, though it is compounded by sulfuric acid export bans from China and a 3-4mn tonne shortfall to annual Russian exports on account of attacks by Ukraine. Inventory liquidation is helping to buffer, notably in China, which is drawing down its stocks, and Canada, which has ample supply. However, the latter is expensive and slow to mobilize, while the former is running out (Boyd expects 2-4 weeks of safety stock left). Because sulfur is largely a processing byproduct, it is price inelastic, so don't expect more supply because economics are better. Alternatives, such as pyrite, are increasingly sought, but it can't fill the hole. This all puts upside risk to sulfur price.

The near-term fix for the energy crunch, which extends far beyond sulfur markets, is reopening the Hormuz chokepoint. Yet DeYoe warned that even if Hormuz were reopened soon, it would take months to rebalance the market and repair damaged assets. This suggests prices will remain elevated through the end of the year.

Related coverage on the sulfur market:

• Gulf Shock May Spark Shortage Of World's Most Critical Industrial Chemical, Used Heavily In Mining

DeYoe highlights that Mosaic is in focus. Sulfuric acid is a key input for phosphate fertilizer production, and Mosaic relies on sulfur from US Gulf Coast refineries. He noted that high sulfur costs could pressure Mosaic's second-half profits and cash flow, potentially requiring a debt raise. He also added that the odds of US government intervention to restrict sulfur exports to protect domestic DAP fertilizer production could increase.

Professional subscribers can find much more on Gulf energy shock here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 05:45

The detention comes as the US ‌and ⁠China are working to steady their frayed bilateral relationship.

The indoor facility features realistic real-world buildings, including a grocery store, hotel, courthouse and gas station.

A North Carolina high school valedictorian who was outed by a heckling senior after appearing to quote Ye in his graduation speech has told how the controversy has left him feeling “distressed.”

But critics say the tradition has drifted well beyond a simple magnet on the door. 

Traders Are Shorting Oil As If The Hormuz Crisis Is Over

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.

• Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.

• Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.

In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.

Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.

Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.

The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.

The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.

But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.

Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.

Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.

All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.

The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.

The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.

Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.

Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.

“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market's fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.

“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”

Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.

“We're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 05:00

SpaceX Prices Biggest Ever IPO At $135 Per Share

While there was little doubt as to SpaceX's actual IPO price, which due to its novel structure was always going to be $135, and unlike the proposed IPO price ranges as is customary for other initial offerings, moments ago SpaceX (SPCX) made it official when it filed a free writing prospectus (FWP) which confirmed the company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, for a total size of $75 billion (excluding the greenshoe), making history with the biggest-ever IPO, launching it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world’s first trillionaire. For context, SpaceX is more than double the size of the previous largest IPO - Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019. The SpaceX registration statement was declared effective June 11. The details of the pricing are shown below.

At $135, SpaceX will have a market value of $1.77 trillion. Accounting for employee stock options and restricted share units, the pricing gives it a fully diluted valuation of about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX’s market value will rank it among the top 10 public companies globally, and make it larger even than Musk’s own Tesla. According to Polymarket, there is a 84% chance the IPO closes above its offering price tomorrow, and a 46% chance it rises more than 20%.

Nearly 50% odds on Polymarket that SPCX rises 20% ($2.2TN market cap) on its first day of trading, and 84% odds it closes above its offering price. https://t.co/UfN4FOlP7T pic.twitter.com/6U0S0HDyt1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

SpaceX, which made a net loss of $4.9bn in 2025, is made up of three businesses: space exploration, including its Falcon and Starship rockets; connectivity, such as its Starlink satellite constellation providing high-speed internet access; and artificial intelligence, though its xAI division.

Musk’s fan base in the retail trading community is a crucial component of the deal: they have placed more than $100 billion in orders for the stock, Bloomberg reported, far more than the 20% of shares that had been reserved for them.

Yet not everyone is so excited. Noted short-seller James Chanos on Wednesday called it “a hopes-and-dreams IPO” driven by enthusiasm for Musk and artificial intelligence rather than the fundamentals of a company that has yet to post a profit.

“The total addressable market for space is infinite,” Chanos, founder of Chanos & Co., said at the iConnections Global Alts conference in New York on Wednesday. “You can build whatever stories you want — colonies on Mars, factories on the moon, data centers in space — to justify the valuation.”

Investment research group Morningstar calculated that SpaceX is worth only $63 a share – half the IPO price – and warns there is “a major disconnect between market expectations and underlying fundamentals”.

Michael Field, the chief equity strategist at Morningstar, suggests investors should sit out the IPO and wait for “a more attractive entry point down the line”.

“We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative,” Field said.

Still, even among the skeptic about the company’s current valuation, many acknowledge Musk’s achievements building Tesla and SpaceX into giants - and making money for investors, thanks in part to his loyal retail investor fanbase.

Coupled with rule changes that could fast track the stock into benchmark gauges like the Nasdaq-100 Index (if not the S&P where there will be at least a one year delay), demand from passive funds and retail investors unable to buy at the IPO price should set the stage for a solid cohort of buyers for shares of the rocket, satellite and AI company once they start trading.   

“It’s probably the most hopeful IPO,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, adding that she doesn’t buy IPOs. Buyers of SpaceX “want to be part of the future,” she said. “And I think that’s oddly hopeful in this time when we’re moving between the poles of greed and fear.” 

As Bloomberg notes, SpaceX is the first of three major IPOs expected to capitalize on stock investors’ appetite for the leading AI companies, a seemingly insatiable demand that has propelled benchmark US indexes to records this year despite the acceleration in inflation and economic disruption caused by the war in Iran. Anthropic PBC and OpenAI, two of the company’s AI competitors, are expected to go public as soon as this year and could seek valuations of more than $1 trillion each, so the performance of SpaceX’s stock will be as closely scrutinized by Silicon Valley venture capitalists as it is by Wall Street traders. The deluge of public equity, on top of an $85 billion equity offering from Alphabet Inc. and the potential for other big-tech firms to follow suit, is triggering a debate over whether there is enough investor demand to meet the incoming supply.

“It’s a big deal as a kind of precursor for Anthropic and OpenAI,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. “When I look at all three of those and the amount of capital that these companies are raising, it tells me that the demand for AI is still very strong even though we’ve seen more volatility. And I think some of that volatility in the market has been positioning around the expectations for these IPOs.”

A successful showing in public markets would make Musk a trillionaire, and his wealth could boom even further if he meets performance-based conditions for awards of as many as 1.3 billion additional class B shares in aggregate, split into tranches. It would be no small feat to earn all those shares. The company’s market capitalization needs to reach $7.5 trillion, it will have to complete non-Earth-based data centers capable of delivering 100 terawatts of computing power per year, and establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants.

Musk, who won’t be able to sell any shares until a year after the start of trading, is expected to control 84% of the voting power after the IPO. His control over SpaceX’s governance includes effectively being able to choose the board members, which means only he can remove himself as CEO.

And now that the pricing is done, we wait for the actual stock to break for trading tomorrow - with the usual several hour delay - at which point we will see if it was wise for SpaceX to issue such a small float with such a large retail participation. Notably, according to Polymarket, the odds that the IPO closes with a market cap above $2.2 trillion 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 04:48

The White House hit back at Ariana Grande on Thursday after the "Wicked" actress slammed the Trump administration for using one of her songs in a social video depicting Immigration and Customs Inspection arrests.

France Is Latest EU Country To Ban & Sanction Israel's Finance Minister

A growing list of Western countries have imposed individual sanctions and travel bans on two Israeli hardline ministers who advocate for Jewish supremacy over the Middle East, evidenced in their expansionist policies from the West Bank to Gaza to Syria.

The two in question are Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir and Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. France is the latest country to ban Smotrich, after the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway already did the same.

via EPA

Spain, Slovenia and most recently Ireland have also banned both, citing that they call for violence against Palestinians on the basis of their ethnic identity. 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot this week explained that France is banning Smotrich because he "actively promotes the annexation of the West Bank, which he openly claims, the creation of new settlements in the West Bank, the re-colonization of Gaza, the economic collapse of the Palestinian Authority and its harmful consequences for the Palestinian population."

"This is a policy that the overwhelming majority of the international community, firmly committed to the two-state solution, cannot accept," Barrot wrote on X.

The legal action targets "those responsible for the escalation of settlement activity and violence in the West Bank," Barrot said.

As expected, Israel's foreign ministry in turn quickly condemned the sanctions as "disgraceful."

The Israeli "government has condemned some settler violence, but that rings hollow when there is scant accountability" - the UK had earlier said of similar measures it adopted.

Smotrich as national finance minister bluntly stated last year that the Gaza Strip is a "real estate bonanza." Further he claimed at the time that he was talks with the Americans on how to divide the enclave up once the Palestinians are kicked out.

There is "a real estate bonanza" in Gaza that "pays for itself" and he had "already started negotiations with the Americans," he said at a past conference in Tel Aviv, according to local media.

"We have poured a lot of money into this war. We have to see how we are dividing up the land in percentages," Smotrich said, explaining that "the demolition, the first stage in the city’s renewal, we have already done. Now we just need to build."

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 04:15

The push comes as advocates argue the measures conflict with constitutional protections.

The Los Angeles County District Attorney has filed a motion calling for payments relating to a $4 billion settlement for sex abuse victims – which is the largest in US history – and sensationally claimed that 81% of claims could be fraudulent. 

The first flight under the arrangement could depart as early as Thursday and is expected to carry roughly 20 people.

Thornton says the show's mix of emotion, drama, humor, absurdity and danger appeals to audiences everywhere.

Thornton says the show's mix of emotion, drama, humor, absurdity and danger appeals to audiences everywhere.

CJ Hopkins: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The New Normal Reich

Authored by CJ Hopkins via ConsentFactory.org,

So the German Supreme Court has ruled on my case. Their ruling is that they will not rule on my case. They sent my attorney a letter to that effect. It literally says:

“The constitutional complaint will not be accepted for a ruling. No explanation is provided. This ruling is incontestable.”

So I am now officially a “hate criminal” in Germany. I was already pretty much a “hate criminal” in Germany, but now it’s official. This is Germany’s supreme court. There is no higher court to appeal to.

OK, sure, there’s the European Court of Human Rights, the international court of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, but it doesn’t have the power to enforce its rulings, and the German authorities and courts have made it clear that they couldn’t care less about anyone’s opinion of their paranoid and authoritarian behavior.

So I’ll be going back to Berlin District Court for sentencing.

I was originally acquitted by the Berlin District Court, but the district prosecutor wasn’t happy with that verdict, so the prosecutor appealed to the Berlin Appellate Court, which overturned my acquittal, which prompted me to appeal to the Federal Constitutional Court (i.e., the Bundesverfassungsgericht, Germany’s supreme court) which has now basically told me to go fuck myself, so now I have to go back to the court that acquitted me to be sentenced for the crime I didn’t commit.

I assume that most people reading this column are familiar with my case by now, but, if you’re not, here are a few of my previous columns and some press coverage that will bring you up to speed.

Press coverage:

What Happens Where Free Speech is Unprotected, The Atlantic
Where “hate speech” censorship is worse than on U.S. campuses, Washington Post
Satirist C.J. Hopkins Sentenced in German Speech Case, Racket News
Der Provokateur, Die Zeit
Meinungsfreiheit in Gefahr durch Strafjustiz in Deutschland, Neue Zürcher Zeitung
Autor C.J. Hopkins verurteilt, Berliner Zeitung
Der kafkaese Prozess gegen C.J. Hopkins, Multipolar
The American Author Living An Orwellian Nightmare, Discourse Magazine
Scandalous verdict: US author C.J. Hopkins found guilty, Aya Velázquez
„Das ist verrückt,“ Multipolar
The Thought Police Are Here, Crisis Magazine

My columns:

The Global Crackdown on Dissent
Modern Book Burning in New Normal Germany
A Visit by the German Thought Police
Fear and Loathing in New Normal Germany
The People’s Court of New Normal Germany
The Verdict
The Criminalization of Dissent (Revisited)

The short version is, back in 2022, I posted two tweets protesting the Covid mask mandates, and I put the cover art of my book, The Rise of the New Normal Reich, in those tweets. The German authorities didn’t appreciate that, so they censored the tweets, banned my book, and prosecuted me for “disseminating propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization.” I would include an image of the cover of my book, but, if I did, the German police would probably raid my house again and steal my new computer.

However, here’s the cover of an issue of Der Spiegel …

My book cover art is more or less exactly like that, except the swastika on my book is behind a medical-looking mask, instead of a German flag, as on the Spiegel cover.

It goes without saying that the German authorities are not prosecuting Der Spiegel for “disseminating propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization.”

If you’re wondering why the German supreme court decided not to rule on my case, and why the judges refused to provide any explanation for their decision … well, just imagine if they had been forced to explain, in writing, for the record, why the Spiegel cover is legal, but the cover of my book is a “hate crime.”

That might have been a bit embarrassing, professionally.

I don’t want to antagonize the supreme court, or the Berlin district prosecutor, or any other German authorities, or they’ll send the police to raid my home again, but, if you happen to be a journalist, and you want to ask them to explain the difference between the Spiegel cover and the cover of my book, the judge you want to talk to is Professor Doctor Stephan Harbarth, LL.M. (Yale). He’s the big honcho at the German supreme court, and is the one who was in charge of reviewing my appeal.

And you could also ask Stephan about my second appeal, or constitutional complaint, as they call it here in Germany. That one is regarding the police raid of my home, and the confiscation of my computer, and the German authorities’ attempt to force me to stop distributing my book worldwide. As I noted, they already banned it in Germany.

That appeal, or complaint, is still pending at the supreme court. I’m certain, after he reads this column, the professor will make sure that it receives proper consideration according to the German constitution, and the rule of law, and basic democratic principles, which the Federal Republic of Germany holds in the highest regard.

Oh, and, if you live in Germany, and want to read more about my prosecution, and other adventures with the New Normal authorities, you can buy my book, Fear and Loathing in the New Normal Reich, which was published by Skyhorse Publishing last year. The Germans haven’t banned that one yet.

I imagine they’ll get around to it eventually.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 03:30

This reader asks Dear Abby what he should do about his sister's affair with an older, wealthy man.

FBI investigators identified Robert Jacob Hoopes using facial recognition technology.

New Pakistani Strikes On Afghanistan Kill 13 Civilians, Taliban Says

Several months ago, close in time to when the US-Iran war started, a separate conflict had erupted further east, along the Af-Pak border and even reaching as deep into Afghanistan as far as Kabul (where Pakistani airstrikes rained down).

Hostilities have abruptly flared up again along the Afghan-Pakistan border overnight as cross-border airstrikes launched by the Pakistani military killed 13 civilians, according to Afghan Taliban officials.

Getty Images

The aerial attacks impacted the Afghan border provinces of Kunar, Khost, and Paktika, stated Zabihullah Mujahid, according to Afghan officials.

There has been relative calm in the situation as a months-long ceasefire largely held, but the new bombardment marks the deadliest single episode in several weeks.

The Pakistani side has made no mention of civilians, but instead says its operation killed over two dozen armed militants:

Pakistan's government said on Wednesday that 26 "militants" linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group were killed in the attacks. 

"In the aftermath of recent terrorist incidents in Pakistan .... precise and calibrated Strikes were carried out along Pakistan Afghanistan border areas on hideouts and safe havens," Pakistan's information minister Attaullah Tarar posted on X.

He did not comment on any civilian casualties after Afghan authorities, who have denied Afghanistan is used for militancy, said at least 12 people, including children, were left dead in the strikes.

An AFP correspondent has offered a vastly differing account, with on report saying: "An AFP journalist saw a house completely destroyed in the southeastern province of Khost, where residents were digging graves to bury those killed in the overnight attack."

Taliban government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated in the aftermath that "11 children, one woman, and one elderly man were killed" in strikes on Khost, Kunar and Paktika provinces.

Pakistan's military released footage and its own counter-narrative:

Pakistan's Information Minister: 26 terrorists killed in strikes on hideouts along the Afghanistan border. pic.twitter.com/22r3dnMV8V

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 10, 2026

Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which share the disputed 1,600-mile Durand Line, have shifted from cautious engagement to open hostility.

The history has been marked by shifting from one-time allies to on-and-off again enemies. Many analysts are pointing to 'blowback' for Pakistan after sponsoring the Taliban's rise in the first place, decades ago (which also had the help of the CIA in 'Operation Cyclone'). Islamabad accuses Afghanistan of sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who carry out cross-border attacks.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 02:45

At least three tornadoes battered communities outside Chicago on Thursday, leveling homes and ripping down trees and power poles, while storms grounded flights for some and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in the Midwest and Northeast.

Long before OG Anunoby became an NBA Finals hero, he was the quiet kid wandering the halls of Indiana and showing up at frat parties in Bloomington.