The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index climbed to a three-year high in July, extending its upward trajectory as conflicts across Eurasia (the Black Sea and the Hormuz chokepoint) disrupt critical trade routes and mounting El Niño risks threaten global harvests.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 131.09 last month, up .6% from the previous month, led by gains in grain, sugar, and vegetable oils.
Wheat surged 5.8% during the month to a two-year high, while corn climbed 3.6%. Vegetable oil prices reached their highest since June 2022, while meat and dairy prices declined, according to the FAO.
Fueling the price surge is the widening Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea, where attacks are increasing and threaten critical bulk-shipping corridors. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are also pushing food prices higher by raising energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs. Layered on top of all this are deteriorating crop conditions in major growing regions across the world as El Niño risks mount, a threat that has been flagged for many months.
"Chances of a very strong El Niño are rising. Risks are concentrated in select EMs, with inflationary and fiscal pressures likely to outweigh growth risks. We view El Niño as a key sovereign credit risk, particularly for countries with weak fiscal buffers," Morgan Stanley analyst Emma Cerda wrote in a recent note.
Earlier this week, UBS analyst Sreedhar Mahamkali identified five long-term forces likely to keep global food inflation "structurally higher" above its pre-pandemic average of about 2.5%.
"While food inflation globally has fallen from the COVID peak, a new debate is emerging: is the c2.5% LT average obsolete?" the London-based managing director and equity-research analyst said.
Mahamkali's first and most important long-term driver of elevated food prices is that "climate risk is global," and the number of institutional desks warning about El Niño is certainly on the rise. Read the full report here.
Perhaps Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes will be proven right about his warning in mid-June (Read Here) that another food price spike could arrive in supermarkets this fall. He said that grocery inflation "may be on the way," citing a blended index of wages, diesel, and commodity costs.
Putting it all together, the theme is clear: multiple pressures are converging across the global food supply chain, tilting the balance of risks toward higher prices. That is already visible at the supermarket, particularly in beef, even as chicken and pork remain comparatively affordable. Egg prices, meanwhile, have collapsed, but fresh warnings from Mexico suggest that avocados could be the next grocery staple to surge.
For households, the best hedge may be to strengthen their own local food supply chains, whether by planting a backyard garden, buying directly from nearby farms, or building relationships with local farmers and cattle ranchers.
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 07:45Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Mindless arson for online clout is torching farmers' livelihoods across England. Hay and straw stacks - vital winter feed and hard-earned harvest - are being deliberately set alight in a suspected TikTok challenge that treats the countryside like disposable content.
West Mercia Police have circulated an urgent warning to farming groups after a string of overnight attacks.
The force stated: "Following a recent spate of overnight arson attacks on hay stacks in the north of England there appears to be a TikTok challenge to 'set fire to as much stuff as possible.' I know the farming community will be aware of the dangers of the dry weather but if it is possible to send out a message to all your members to be extra vigilant."
"Police believe the trend, targeting hay and straw stacks across northern England, may be linked to a TikTok challenge encouraging people to set fire to things in the countryside."
Absolutely disgraceful behaviour. https://t.co/QYVHXRngnH
Humberside Police are investigating six suspected deliberate bale fires reported overnight on 30 July across North Lincolnshire at East Butterwick, Messingham, Susworth and Kirton in Lindsey. Reports included suspicious dark-coloured vehicles and quad bike tracks near the stacks.
Smoke could be seen for miles as firefighters tackled a large field fire. Read more: https://t.co/kwegie5HuO pic.twitter.com/x49bMKAR2F
— BBC Humberside (@RadioHumberside) August 5, 2026Around the same period, about 1,200 hay bales were destroyed in a major overnight fire near Saxondale Island close to Bingham in Nottinghamshire, treated as suspected arson. In Oxfordshire, a fire involving around 600 hay bales tore through stacks in the village of Hinton Waldrist on 20 July; Thames Valley Police continue to investigate.
Fire service believe major grassland blaze was 'started deliberately' https://t.co/dUzST0LAov
— Stourbridge News (@StourbridgeNews) August 4, 2026Roughly 250 hay bales were deliberately set alight at Hackpen Hill near Swindon in Wiltshire. The blaze, confirmed by police as thought to have been started deliberately, took firefighters more than 28 hours to extinguish. Neighbouring farmer James Hussey described it as "quite a loss" for the owner.
Police believe that a fire involving hay bales near a popular beauty spot in Wiltshire was started "deliberately"https://t.co/ac52ryM5Ui
— ITV News West Country (@itvwestcountry) August 3, 2026Huge fire at beauty spot contained, say fire crews https://t.co/RVNYII2R6S
— BBC Stoke & Staffordshire (@BBCRadioStoke) August 6, 2026Huge blaze destroys tractor and 50 tonnes of hay https://t.co/Thn8EX3VO9
— Daily Echo (@dailyecho) August 5, 2026Near South Milford a deliberate hay bale fire spread across 15 acres of fields. North Yorkshire Police stated: "Deliberately setting fire to hay bales not only causes significant financial loss to farmers but also presents a serious risk to life, property, livestock, and the wider countryside, particularly during periods of warm and dry weather."
Prestatyn, North Wales, sand dunes on fire pic.twitter.com/qvPpXNfAUR
— Lady Featherdown ?? (@Melissag0ec) August 2, 2026'Deliberate' field fire damages houses and gardens https://t.co/cFQ87u8HIg
— BBC Yorkshire (@BBCLookNorth) August 6, 2026Major incident declared and warnings to stay away as Ferndale wildfire spreads: https://t.co/cH2oLTPm3Q
Footage credit: South Wales Fire and Rescue service pic.twitter.com/YgQ4y1eL6t
Jeremy Clarkson's Diddly Squat Farm was also reported as targeted in a suspected arson attack involving hay bale silos in early May 2026.
Earlier in the season, in late June 2026, a Cambridgeshire farm near Peterborough experienced seven deliberate blazes over two nights that hit fields, hedgerows and a caravan.
Farmer Judith Jacobs said: "Sadly, we experienced similar incidents several times last summer, and this kind of behaviour is completely unacceptable."
Without deterrents crimes are contagious? Do you agree those who deliberately start fires should be financially held responsible for all services required & all damage caused? Huge wildfire sparks major incident in UK village as blaze lit 'deliberately' https://t.co/3QjSbP02fE
— At Least The Thick Of It Were Pro UK (@ChaplinLorra) August 4, 2026Firefighters prevented a large straw bale fire from spreading to a second stack after it broke out on farmland near Naseby:https://t.co/mGMOcQlrUz
— HFM News (@hfmnews) August 6, 2026? Major Fire In The Fields Behind The Pywipe Industrial Estate Grimsby
Factory's Are At Risk Of Burning Down
More to follow... pic.twitter.com/tSlUpog2ha
Dry conditions have left crops, grassland and stored forage highly vulnerable. Fire services and rural teams are urging farmers to review CCTV, report suspicious activity immediately, lock sheds and outbuildings, install security lighting where practical, and keep hay and straw stored well away from fuels, chemicals and machinery.
Fires started 'deliberately' on mountain as crews tackle blaze https://t.co/I6AzRtwseh
— CE (@CarolPP9) August 4, 2026Fire crews battle through night as Suffolk wildfire spreads to '210 football pitches' https://t.co/3z4JxSCoR9
— The Sun (@TheSun) July 31, 2026Farmers already battle weather, regulation and thin margins. Deliberate fires on top of that threaten winter feed stocks, next year's harvest and the basic security of the food chain. Rural communities are left footing the cost while the perpetrators chase likes.
Deliberate fire at stunning Devon country parkhttps://t.co/TNoKJSS78L
— Marcus Middleton (@Salacious282vs) August 5, 2026Expect the usual suspects to try reframing this as another "climate emergency." Alarmists have a long record of blaming every dry-weather fire on global warming while ignoring clear evidence of deliberate human action.
This particular brand of idiocy - setting things alight for clicks - is not new and shows no sign of stopping. It keeps happening because the platforms reward it and the consequences rarely stick.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 07:20The income needed in order to purchase a typical home for sale in the United States in June was $109,796, marginally lower than the record high $110,382 in 2025, real estate brokerage Redfin said in an Aug. 5 report.
Housing affordability has remained largely flat year over year since monthly housing costs and people’s incomes are growing at a similar rate, Redfin said.
However, the income needed to purchase a house has been dropping consistently since October.
While the income required is around $22,000 higher than the earnings of a typical household, it’s an improvement compared to $26,000 a year ago, according to the report.
Redfin Senior Economist Yingqi Xu said that the double-digit gap between what a typical household makes in a year and the income needed to comfortably buy a home is leaving many prospective buyers on the sidelines.
On the plus side, “even if the market isn’t becoming much more affordable, it is becoming a bit more manageable for house hunters,” Xu said.
“It’s a buyer’s market in most of the country, especially places that were once pandemic homebuying hotspots like Nashville and Austin, giving buyers lots of options to choose from and strong negotiating power.”
According to Redfin, the income needed to afford a house surged in 2022 and 2023 as home prices skyrocketed amid the COVID-19 pandemic buying frenzy. Mortgage rates also doubled during this period.
For the week ending Jan. 6, 2021, the average weekly rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.65 percent, according to data from Freddie Mac. This rose to 7.79 percent for the week ending Oct. 25, 2023.
While rates have come down since then, they remain elevated. The persistently high rates contribute to keeping monthly mortgage payments on the higher side.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in an Aug. 4 statement that home prices rose in 80 percent of tracked metro markets in the second quarter this year, which is considerably higher than the 71 percent of metros in the first quarter.
Despite elevated mortgage rates, home sales increased, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said in the statement, suggesting that this points to a buildup in housing demand due to steady jobs and income gains.
“It is welcoming to see incomes rising faster than home prices, which has helped boost affordability—but the big short-term challenge to affordability is coming from rising mortgage rates,” Yun said.
However, as Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times, real estate marketplace Zillow said that 2026 year-end mortgage rates could be 6.4 percent, which would put it slightly higher compared to the fall and winter of 2025.
This would not only erode any affordability gains made recently, but also make it difficult for property listings and sales to remain above year-ago levels.
Affordability SituationWhile wage growth has outpaced home value growth in most of the United States and thus helped improve affordability, the increase in prices of everyday goods has eaten into those gains. This essentially limits how much prospective buyers can spend on purchasing a home, Zillow said.
The Trump administration has taken several actions to tackle affordability issues in the housing market.
An aerial view of a residential housing development in Los Angeles on April 3, 2025. Mario Tama/Getty Images
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said on June 23 that it was making multiple changes to its Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Single Family mortgage insurance program, aimed at lowering costs and improving affordability for people looking to secure FHA-insured mortgages.
The update eliminated outdated requirements and minimized administrative burdens to ensure that FHA financing becomes more efficient for buyers and lenders.
“Every unnecessary regulation comes with a cost, and too often homebuyers pay the price,” HUD Secretary Scott Turner said. “If a policy does not protect taxpayers, improve affordability, or expand opportunity for Americans, we should rethink it. As we recognize National Homeownership Month, these FHA actions reflect that commitment by eliminating barriers to expand homeownership opportunities.”
Earlier in April, HUD and the Department of Agriculture rescinded a policy related to energy standards, the enforcement of which would have pushed up the costs of home construction by $20,000 to $31,000, according to HUD.
Construction workers build a home at a new housing development in Hercules, Calif., on July 1, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
And in March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Removing Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Home Construction.”
In the order, Trump instructed the secretaries of HUD, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Energy to take “appropriate action to reform and, where appropriate, eliminate unduly burdensome or costly energy-efficiency, water-use, or alternative-energy requirements regarding housing.”
Trump wrote that unnecessary regulatory barriers and “onerous mandates” had delayed the construction of new homes and driven up their costs, making housing less affordable for American citizens.
Tyler Durden Fri, 08/07/2026 - 06:55