Most traders may be out on the beach soaking up the mid-summer sun, but the relentless market and geopolitical newsflow continues for another week.
Following Friday's payrolls report, which was far more dovish than hawkish at face value, attention this week will be firmly on July US CPI (Wednesday), which could go a long way towards further tipping the balance for September FOMC pricing. Futures pricing fell by around 10 percentage points immediately after the release on Friday, leaving the implied probability at 44%. Then we get US PPI (Thursday), which is key for the components that feed directly into core PCE. Other US highlights include retail sales and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (both Friday). Elsewhere, attention will focus on the RBA policy decision (tomorrow), the Norges Bank meeting and UK Q2 GDP report (Thursday), and inflation releases across Asia and Europe. Corporate earnings are quieter than in recent weeks but reports from Tencent, BYD, Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave will still attract attention.
Before we go into the week ahead in more detail the situation in Iran remains finely balanced with Iran’s latest political and security moves suggesting that Tehran is trying to balance a tougher domestic posture with a continued search for a diplomatic off-ramp. The appointment of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaee to head the Supreme National Security Council reinforces hard-line influence at the centre of decision-making, even as Iranian officials insist they are close to an agreement with Oman on a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described the talks as being in their final stages, but Tehran has stressed that any technical agreement on shipping routes would not by itself lead to a full reopening of the waterway. Reuters and other major outlets report that Iran continues to tie any lasting Hormuz arrangement to wider demands on the US, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees. Oman has characterised the negotiations as constructive, while Washington has signalled a willingness to continue talks despite periodic tensions. Brent is up around +0.8% this morning but US and European equity futures are fairly flat.
This all follows last Friday’s US payrolls report certainly offering a mixed assessment of labor market conditions. Headline payrolls unexpectedly fell by -23k, private payroll growth slowed to just +30k, and the previous two months were revised down by a cumulative -103k. However, much of the weakness was concentrated in two sectors - leisure and hospitality (-40k) and local government education (-50k), while goods-producing employment and construction both posted their strongest gains in several months. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, its lowest level since early 2025. DB economists view the report as consistent with a broadly stable labor market rather than a sharp deterioration, noting that demographic factors continue to weigh on participation.
The softer payrolls data has reduced the urgency for further Fed tightening in the near term, but with labor market slack only gradually increasing, it's over to Wednesday's US CPI.
On this big number, DB's economists expect headline CPI to rise by +0.15% mom after June’s -0.42% decline, while core CPI is forecast at +0.26% mom following an unchanged reading in June. Lower gasoline prices should keep headline inflation softer than core, and if forecasts are realized both headline and core annual inflation rates would edge down by around one-tenth to 3.45% and 2.51% respectively. Markets will also be watching for evidence of payback from several unusual price moves in June, particularly across parts of core goods and services.
Attention will then turn to July PPI on Thursday. Economists expect headline producer prices to rise by +0.22% mom, with core PPI at +0.3% mom. Particular focus will fall on categories that feed into core PCE inflation, including healthcare services, airfares and portfolio management. DB strategist are currently tracking +0.22% in July and 3.3% YoY.
Friday’s US data will offer the first major read on Q3 activity. Economists expect retail sales to increase by +0.1% mom in July, a dip from the 0.2% increase in June, as lower fuel prices weigh on the headline figure relative to underlying spending measures. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is expected to ease to 54.7 in August from 55.2 previously.
Fed speakers are relatively sparse, although comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Richmond Fed President Barkin may attract attention following the inflation data.
Outside the US, there are a couple of G10 central banks in focus this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision tomorrow, with our economists (and the market) expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.35%. Norges Bank follows on Thursday with a 25% probability of a hike priced in.
In Europe, the key release will be the UK’s Q2 GDP report on Thursday. Our economists expect June GDP to contract by -0.1% mom, leaving quarterly growth at +0.4% qoq, although risks are seen as tilted to the downside. Elsewhere, Norway and Denmark both publish July CPI figures today.
On the corporate side, the earnings season is becoming less intensive, with 400 out of the S&P 500 having now reported, but several notable companies remain on the calendar.
In the US, investors will focus on results from Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave, while in China attention will fall on Tencent and BYD.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday August 10
Tuesday August 11
Wednesday August 12
Thursday August 13
Friday August 14
* * *
Focusing on just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the retail sales report on Friday. There are a few speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Presidents Hammack and Barkin.
Monday, August 10
Tuesday, August 11
Wednesday, August 12
Thursday, August 13
Friday, August 14
Source: DB, Goldman
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 10:15By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank
Talks between Iran and Oman on the reopening of Hormuz are reportedly inching ahead, as Iran continues to give the US the silent treatment. Negotiators said that a deal to establish a safe shipping route was close, but Iran may now be exploring just how much it can extract from the US in return.
Last week, Iran had already said that any deal with Oman would be contingent on the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. On Friday, a US official told Reuters that the administration agreed to this. The US blockade would end once a deal is announced that “restores commercial shipping without impediments.”
But give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. Tehran added new demands over the weekend, saying that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the US meets “a number of requirements.” These demands largely seem to refer to the original memorandum of understanding. Iran’s additional demands include the US ending all hostilities and withdrawing its troops from the area. Iran also wants Washington to pay billions in war damages and lift sanctions on the country.
Or do the additional demands reflect division between Iranian camps, and varying levels of distrust of the US? The strait remains a key point of geopolitical leverage – at least until planned alternatives for oil exports are all fully operational.
Meanwhile, the US president appears to be divided on the war as well. The Wall Street Journal reported this weekend that Trump had been willing to walk away without any agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, claiming victory if the strait reopens. However, Iran’s additional demands may have torpedoed that plan.
Netanyahu rejecting the Board of Peace plan for Gaza is a further complicating factor. The Israeli prime minister indicated that he will not withdraw troops until Hamas fully disarms.
So, yesterday, Trump told Axios that he was “low-keying it,” waiting for the economic damage to build: “We are only semi-negotiating. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Yet, the longer this persists, the more economic damage could build in the US and other parts of the world as well.
Energy markets started the week off cautiously after all this. Brent futures are marginally higher, but traders seem reluctant to take big positions given all this on-again, off-again news. Equity markets seem to have shrugged off the weekend news flow entirely, perhaps partly aided by US economic data.
Following Friday’s employment report, the case for a Fed hike is weakening, but it is certainly not yet done for. The headline payrolls number disappointed, with a -23,000 jobs print and a 37,000 downward revision to the June estimate. In contrast, unemployment declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the underlying data indicate that this was due to a big fall in labour supply that outpaced the decline in household employment.
Our US strategist noted earlier that employment growth has been slowing for several months, and Friday’s report confirmed that downside risks to the labor market have not disappeared entirely since the three insurance cuts last year. This could strengthen the argument of the Fed’s doves. Yet, the employment report also allows the hawks to argue that the labor market is mostly suffering from supply constraints, even if they are a little less confident in their case than before.
In short, the labor market data may have removed some urgency, reducing the odds of a September hike. However, incoming inflation data remain key.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 09:45Ukraine's military has conducted a rare, mass casualty attack deep into central Russia. Long-range drones reached Tatarstan, which lies some 1,200km (or about 750 miles) east of the Ukrainian border.
The strikes killed 13 people and wounded at least 75 in what's widely being called one of the most deadly single attacks launched on Russian territory by Ukraine throughout the war.
via Reuters"According to the latest information, 13 people have been killed and 75 wounded as a result of the drone attack," on the city of Nizhnekamsk, the Tatarstan region's press service indicated Monday.
Nizhnekamsk is an important oil refining hub, and also has a major petrochemical plant, and there have been reports of thick smoke rising above an oil facility near the city. NBC notes that "Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck a Taneco oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, starting a fire."
According to more details in regional media:
Radmir Belyayev, the mayor of the industrial city of Nizhnekamsk, said drones targeted both civilian and industrial sites during the attack. Besides the more than a dozen fatalities, which included one child, regional authorities said more than 70 people sought medical attention.
Unverified reports said the Nizhnekamskneftekhim petrochemical plant, which produces synthetic rubber and plastics, was hit during the overnight attack.
Hundreds of drones crossed Russia's skies overnight, with the military saying it shot down 456 Ukrainian drones fired overnight.
Ukraine's President Zelensky stated Sunday night, "We do deliver entirely justified responses, and every Russian strike will be met with our response. Russia’s war will be felt more and more at their own home — in Russia."
He added: "The only reason this is still continuing is Russia's unwillingness to end this war." Currently there appear to be no negotiations happening, even after the White House signaled it would seek to renew diplomatic efforts toward ending the war."
And Ukraine's General Staff has warned, "The Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue systematically implementing measures aimed at bringing the Russian Federation’s armed aggression to an end."
At this point, there are hundreds of drones sent on Russia each night, which Ukraine describes as retaliation for heavy Russian ballistic missile attacks on its cities.
BREAKING:
Ukrainian long-range drones have struck Russia’s 3rd-largest oil refinery
Tatneft’s TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk in the Tatarstan region has a refining capacity of 17 million tons of oil per year. Only Omsk (22 million) and Kirishi (20 million) have more. pic.twitter.com/Jt1h6KuVmv
In Ukraine overnight, at least five people were reported killed in a Russian artillery strike in a village in the northeastern Kharkiv region.
Additionally, while Ukraine's repeat large drone waves on central Russia and even the Moscow region have driven headlines, much less attention has been paid to the emerging and renewed Black Sea war. Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 09:30