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'The Financial Equivalent Of All Out Nuclear War': Jim Rickards Says 'Yentervention' Is The Biggest Story In The World
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Eight-time, best-selling financial author Jim Rickards is warning of a financial calamity already underway that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to contain. It is the Japanese yen carry trade where the US Treasury is propping up the yen’s value.
Is the yen carry trade coming to a halt and can it blow up things? Rickards says, “The answer is yes and yes..."
"Somebody wrote me and asked if the yen carry trade is a big deal? I wrote them back and said there is nothing bigger. This is actually the biggest story in the world.”
In simple terms, the problem is people have been borrowing at 0% in yen to do deals around the world. Everything was fine until interest rates in Japan started going up after more than two decades. Rickards says, “This is the engine of global economic growth. It has been powering the US economy and the global economy for over 30 years. What could go wrong?"
" The thing that could go wrong the fastest is if Japanese interest rates went up. . .. The bank of Japan says it is going to keep raising interest rates. It’s not going to the moon, but 3% for yen (and Japanese) interest rates is like going to the moon when it’s been 0% for 20 years.
So, now, the yen carry trade is unwinding. . .. The original borrower borrows dollars to pay back the yen loan, swaps the yen and pays back the yen loan. What if you can’t borrow? What if the bank says sorry, no soup for you. . ..
Now, what do you do if you want to get out of the yen carry trade? You have to sell assets. So, you are going to sit there and make a lot less money or even lose money, or you are going to dump assets to get dollars to pay back the yen loan. They are both bad for the markets. It you have to sell assets, guess what? The price goes down, and other people have to sell assets. The next thing you know it’s a stampede, and everyone is running for the exit. This is not a few investment banks on Wall Street or a few hedge funds.
This is the whole world getting out of the leveraged exchange rate engine that has been running the world for 30 years. That is the financial equivalent of all out nuclear war.”
Rickards goes on to explain, “Japan is the number one holder of US Treasuries..."
" They have been selling Treasuries to get dollars to buy yen to prop up the yen. What happens when you sell Treasuries? US interest rates go up. Do you think the Trump Administration or Secretary of the Treasury want US interest rates to go up?
...Treasury Secretary Bessent called Japan and said hold on to your Treasuries. We will give you all the dollars you need with a swap line with the Federal Reserve.
So, what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen. So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates. So, the carry trade does not unwind. So, the markets don’t collapse. . .. It is extremely dangerous...
You are trying to defend an exchange rate that probably can’t be defended, and it is just a matter of time before it breaks.”
Back in 2016, long before the central banks were buying gold hand over fist, Rickards told people to buy gold in his best-selling book “The New Case for Gold.”
Back then, gold was a little more than $1,300 per ounce. With the price down to around $4,300 per ounce today, that looks like it was very good investment advice. We are nowhere near the high for gold, and Rickards predicts:
“I think it’s going to the moon. When I say the moon, I mean $10,000 per ounce. We have had our correction. . .. We are now heading back up again, and it’s going to happen very quickly.”
On the midterms in November and Trump stopping the voter fraud by Democrats, Rickards says:
“Things are going to get rough. It’s already in the works. You can see it coming. Look at “Act Blue.” Turns out it was a total fraud. They were taking foreign money, which is illegal. They were raising billions of dollars, but they were doing it completely illegally. They are under investigation, and their board has resigned and ran for the hills. . .. You take Act Blue and Southern Poverty Law Center off line and that is what the Trump Administration has done, that is billions of dollars the Democrats cannot get their hands on. . ..
In the midterms, the Republicans will spend $500 million and have an army of 500 lawyers fanning out all over the country. They are not going to wait until after the election to stop fraud.”
The Trump Administration will also stop the mail-in ballot fraud through the US Postal Service. . .. The US Postal service is going to save the day by tracking every single piece of mail (and mail- in ballot.)
There is much more in the 65-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Jim Rickards, eight-time best-selling financial author, to talk about gold, 2026 midterm elections, stopping voter fraud, the economy and the yen carry trade unwind for 8.8.2026.
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The Fed Is Failing Its Mandate, But It Could Change Soon
The Federal Reserve’s legal mandate is clear. It must focus on stable prices and maximum employment. In the past five years, the Fed has failed on both. Inflation remains materially above the 2 percent target, reaching a decade-high 25% cumulative inflation in the 2021-2025 period, while restrictive monetary conditions have been limited to rate hikes, which weigh most heavily on the small and medium-sized firms that generate most of net employment growth.
This failure was not merely a matter of missing a forecast but a policy framework that became narrative-driven rather than data-dependent. The Fed spent much of 2025 moving between concerns about inflation from tariffs based on ideology and a growing admission of weakness in the labor market. However, it continued to treat interest rates as its overwhelmingly dominant instrument. That is a poor policy mix when the problem of persistent inflation was caused by excessive government spending. Kritzman, at MIT Sloan, concluded that “mathematically, the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain.” However, the Fed’s policy was directed at penalizing the private sector while incentivizing large government deficit spending.
The Fed defines price stability as inflation running at 2 percent, measured by the PCE price index. That goal was still unmet at the end of 2025. Headline PCE inflation rose 2.9 percent year over year in December, while core PCE inflation was 3.0 percent. Both headline and core inflation increased 0.4 percent in that month alone. This is not price stability. It is persistent erosion of household purchasing power. A family does not suffer the inflation target in a Federal Open Market Committee statement but significantly higher price increases than those reflected in CPI at the supermarket, the gas station, rent payment, and utility bills. The fact that inflation has slowed from its 2022 peak does not mean the inflation problem has gone away. Prices remain permanently higher after years of monetary and fiscal excess, and the cumulative loss of purchasing power remains embedded in household budgets.
The Fed’s narrative during 2025 frequently focused on temporary factors, inexistent tariff effects, labor-market rebalancing, and the expected path of core inflation. Some of those factors mattered. But the larger error was to ignore the monetary and fiscal origins of the inflation shock. Inflation did not appear suddenly. It was the consequence of an extraordinary expansion of money, liquidity, and deficit-financed spending in 2021 through 2024.
The United States ran enormous fiscal deficits even after the pandemic emergency had passed. Government spending grew aggressively, while the central bank’s earlier asset-purchase programs absorbed a large volume of government and mortgage debt. The result was a policy mix in which fiscal expansion was incentivized and monetary discipline was inexistent.
The Fed was not a brake on fiscal excess. It was an enabler.
Quantitative easing and the expansion of the central-bank balance sheet created the perception that all public deficits could be financed at artificially low cost without consequences. That illusion encouraged Yellen and Biden to treat debt issuance as painless and made it easier to sustain spending levels that exceeded the productive capacity of the economy. Yellen’s reckless decision to refinance most maturities with short-term bonds proves this. She was clearly expecting more easing in 2025 after the unnecessary rate cuts announced in the middle of the election campaign.
Money supply growth, deficit spending, and ultra-low policy rates were not small mistakes or isolated events created by an emergency. Together they created too much unproductive demand relative to available supply. When supply chains normalized and energy prices fell, some disinflation followed, but the excess monetary and fiscal impulse had already lifted the general price level and distorted the allocation of capital. Furthermore, the overall inflation continued to rise even when energy prices fell below 2022 levels and supply chain costs dropped to pre-COVID-era prices, proving that monetary and fiscal excess, not a supply shock, was the main cause.
The government’s and Fed’s responses made the error worse. Instead of controlling spending and understanding the fiscal source of persistent inflation, using the balance sheet more forcefully, the government increased public spending by 2 trillion above the emergency levels of the COVID-era, and the Fed placed the burden of restrictive policy on private sector borrowers. Families with credit cards, first-time homebuyers, small businesses, and entrepreneurs became the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
Small firms are the backbone of the U.S. labor market. Businesses with fewer than 250 employees account for more than 51 percent of net job creation and generate 58 percent of net private-sector employment growth from the first quarter of 2023 through the end of 2025.
Small businesses do not finance investments like large listed corporations, issuing bonds, syndicated loans, or share issuances. Small businesses need bank credit, using variable-rate loans, personal guarantees, commercial-property lending, and retained earnings.
The Fed’s restrictive policy hits the productive economy hardest. A large company with a strong balance sheet can delay expansion. A small business with a refinancing need will stop hiring, cut inventories, postpone equipment purchases, or close altogether.
NFIB data shows that the average short-term loan rate paid by small-business borrowers was 8.4 percent in December 2025. Only 25 percent of owners reported borrowing regularly, a historically low share.
By keeping liquidity elevated, enabling government excess, and hiking rates, the Fed has made borrowing costs prohibitive and often nonexistent for small businesses (SMEs). For many banks it became safer and more profitable to hoard government debt than to lend to families and businesses.
SME credit constraints accelerate employment losses, accounting for roughly one-third of the aggregate employment response to monetary-policy shocks. Thus, the central bank cannot claim to support maximum employment while maintaining a framework that punishes the firms responsible for most of the job creation.
The Fed’s own institutional analysis recognized that policy remained contractionary even after rate reductions, with the federal funds rate above the neutral level. Therefore, monetary policy was still restrictive while inflation was not being driven by an overheated private economy.
There is no compelling case for maintaining a punitive rate stance when private-sector credit creation is weak, hiring is slowing, and the inflation impulse is increasingly concentrated in transitory categories such as energy or government-driven cost pressures. The correct question is not whether inflation is above target. It is what is causing it.
As inflation comes from excessive government spending, debt monetization, or a temporary energy shock that is fading, higher rates do nothing to solve the source of the problem. As such, it gives the impression of a restrictive, inflation-control-focused policy but it is very far from the stated intention. The Fed was exceedingly accommodative when it came to bloating the size of government in the economy and aggressively hawkish against the private productive sector. Therefore, rate hikes simply crushed investment and consumption in sectors that did not create the inflation.
This is the massive policy mistake at the heart of the Fed’s 2021-2025 approach. It tried to cure inflation through higher borrowing costs while leaving the balance-sheet channel underused and allowing fiscal dominance to remain unchallenged. The Fed was trying to cure obesity in the system by starving the part of the economy that was already thin.
Interest rates are a blunt instrument, similar to using a cannon to swat flies. They affect every borrower, but their damage is greatest for households and smaller firms. The balance sheet is a more direct tool for removing excess liquidity, reducing monetary distortions, and restoring discipline to governments and financial markets.
The Fed did reduce securities holdings by around $2.2 trillion from June 2022. However, in October 2025, it announced that securities runoff would cease from December 1, even though its balance sheet remained extraordinarily large by historical standards. That decision sent the wrong signal. It suggested that the Fed was more willing to preserve the sovereign debt bubble and manage short-term market corrections than to implement monetary normalization. The Fed’s balance sheet has never returned to normal. It simply declines for a short period of time, only to rise again.
The Fed should have accelerated the balance-sheet reduction in a transparent and predictable manner instead of delaying it, allowing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to roll off more rapidly, thus reducing excess money in the system. Powell and the Fed should have made clear that monetary policy cannot serve as a permanent buyer of government debt. They did the opposite.
That framework would reduce excess liquidity without forcing the entire adjustment onto entrepreneurs and working families. Furthermore, it would also create pressure for greater fiscal discipline, because government borrowing would face a more realistic market price.
Kevin Warsh offers an opportunity for a needed change in focus and approach. He recognizes that the Fed has two major instruments, interest rates and the balance sheet, and that they do not affect the economy equally. Warsh has argued that balance-sheet policy disproportionately benefits holders of financial assets, while rate policy reaches broadly across the real economy. He has supported a smaller balance sheet alongside lower interest rates, rather than treating rate hikes as the automatic and only answer to every inflation concern. This would make price stability and maximum employment easier to achieve.
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These Restaurant Chains Won The Social Media War For Gen Z's Attention
Millennials and Generation Z spend a disproportionate amount of time on social media, swiping left, right, up, and down, making growth in interactions an increasingly important measure of brand relevance. For restaurant chains seeking to attract younger consumers, social media platforms have become critical advertising tools for building brand awareness and, ultimately, converting that attention into restaurant visits or online orders through viral campaigns.
In a review of which U.S. restaurant chains won over younger generations in the second-quarter social media wars, UBS equity research analyst Dennis Geiger, who specializes in the U.S. restaurant industry, said McDonald's, Starbucks, and KFC dominated restaurant engagement on Instagram, while Wendy's, Chipotle, and several casual-dining chains recorded some of the strongest growth.
The restaurant chains that won social media advertising wars in 2Q:
Social media trends indicate rising momentum for select QSRs & casual diners
Using UBS Evidence Lab's Instagram (> Access dataset) and TikTok (> Access dataset) data, we assessed how brands performed on social media platforms in 2Q26. We analyzed followers, posts, and interactions to better understand brand visibility, sentiment, and consumer reactions to recent brand developments. We believe that brands with strong online communities and committed followers are better positioned to drive visit frequency and improve consumer interaction, supported by research indicating a correlation between views and traffic. Select QSR brands delivered strong Instagram interactions and likes growth y/y in 2Q26, including: Chipotle, McDonald's, Starbucks and Wendy's. Several casual dining brands also posted strong y/y TikTok follower growth, including LongHorn (+167%), Applebees (+103%), and Outback (75%), among the leaders.
Recent earnings commentary highlights benefit of effective social media
Social media is increasingly relevant for connecting with customers, building brand affinity and driving visits. Several restaurants highlighted effective social media strategy and contribution in recent earnings calls, including: CAKE, CMG SBUX, CBRL, CAVA, SHAK, SG, BROS, WING, & YUM, among others. Brands highlight social media as a lever to expand the reach at the top of the marketing funnel, stay culturally relevant (ie world cup, viral trends), engage directly with consumers, and maximize awareness for strategic initiatives (events, promotions, partnerships). Several brands have also gained significant attention from user-generated content and word-of-mouth across social media which might not be reflected in the brands' own account metrics. In 2Q26, several brands had viral moments online including: 1) Cheesecake Factory's Linda's Chocolate Cake, Eggroll sampler, and Chicken Costoletta 'menu hack' went viral and contributed to strong sales results for the brand, w/ CAKE's own social media content playing into these trends; 2) 'My ___ Order' video trend for Taco Bell (YUM), SBUX, CMG, WING, and WEN; 3) continued popularity of the Chili's (EAT) Triple Dipper cheese pull trend; and 4) user- generated content for new menu items at Taco Bell, SG, & SHAK.
Instagram engagement increased y/y for select QSR brands in 2Q
- Chipotle's interaction growth (54%) likely reflects posts for the brand's free entrees promo during the NBA Finals, 'Wear a Soccer Jersey' BOGO, Father's Day, National Burrito Day, Chipotle Honey Chicken, and Jarritos partnership.
- Wendy's interaction growth (162%) is likely from posts for the return of the Sweet and Sour sauce, Minions & Monsters menu, Ice Spice Spicy Chicken Sandwich campaign, merch and rewards drops, the Cookie Dough Frosty Fusion, the Wendy's look-alike contest, and the new Chief Tasting Officer.
- McDonald's interaction growth (45%) is likely from posts for KPop Demon Hunters collaboration, Stranger Things Tales from '85 Happy Meal, new beverage lineup, Nike Book 2 shoe collaboration, and the world cup meal w/ collectible cup and happy meal (Squishmallows).
- Starbucks' interaction growth (43%) likely reflects posts for the new energy refresher lineup, Unicorn Frappuccino at Coachella, S'mores Frappuccino return, Devil Wears Prada 2 collaboration, new flavors (mango cream, tropical butterfly refresher, iced horchata, blue coconut), and world cup beverage sleeves.
- Jack in the Box's interaction growth (31%) is likely from posts for Smashed Jack Sliders & Hot Ones Munchie Meals, April fools, and collectible pins.
- Wingstop's interaction growth (25%) is likely from posts for April Fool's, new Citrus Mojo flavor, Wrestlemania collab, Wingstop Hot Box, PopUp Bagels collab, Club Wingstop, and new chamoy sauce collab with Tajin.
- Sweetgreen's interaction growth (13%) is likely from posts for the wrap lineup, summer menu, chicken sesame crunch, and partnerships with influencers.
Instagram engagement increased across select casual-fine dining brands in 2Q
- LongHorn's interaction growth (26%) is likely from posts for the Steak Master Series, Father's Day, and consistent food posts.
- Applebee's interaction growth (17%) is likely from posts for $15.99 all-you-can-eat deal, Busch Light Apple re-release (i.e. BApplebees), 2 for $25 deal, Father's Day Dollarita deal, Poolio with Don Julio drink, and posts about Applebee's | IHOP dual-brand locations.
- Chili's interaction growth (2%) is likely from posts for Margarita of the Month, Chili's Food Court collab with Trisha Paytas, Spire Motor Sports collaboration, Triple Dipper, and skillet cookie + molten chocolate cake menu hack.
- Cheddar's interaction growth (170%) is likely from posts for NASCAR sponsorship and partnerships with influencers.
Other notable Instagram/TikTok takeaways from analysis (data inside):
- The Instagram total interactions leaderboard includes MCD, KFC, SBUX, Burger King (QSR), Taco Bell (YUM), BROS, CMG.
- The TikTok total followers leaderboard includes MCD, Burger King (QSR), KFC (YUM), DPZ, SBUX, Taco Bell (YUM), CMG, WING.
- Brands with the most Instagram follower growth in 2Q include PLAY, BROS, CMG, Popeyes (QSR), and CAVA.
- Brands with the most TikTok follower growth in 2Q include Cheddar's (DRI), LongHorn (DRI), Applebee's (DIN), Popeyes (QSR), and Outback (BLMN).
- DPZ's June interaction growth (89%) is from posts for a 50% off LTO, world cup videos showcasing DPZ menu items around the world, and the new slice sauce.
- Outback Steakhouse's June interaction growth (137%) is from posts for Father's Day, Aussie JAWSsie drink w/ hammerhead shark, their Propa Good Steak, joint posts with influencers, world cup, and the Down Under Trio.
- LongHorn's 167% TikTok follower growth in 2Q could be attributed to strong interactions across the brand's Steak Master Series posts and consistent food posts.
- Applebee's 103% 2Q26 TikTok follower growth can be attributed to strong interactions on posts for Busch Light Apple and value deals (incl. 2 for $25, all-you-can-eat for $15.99).
- 2Q26 Instagram interactions were down y/y for Olive Garden (-78%) and Cava (-63%) due to lapping of viral posts from 2Q25.
Instagram Analysis - 2Q26
The big takeaway is that one viral social media campaign can capture younger consumers' attention and instantly translate online engagement into a surge in restaurant traffic and delivery orders.
Really seems like Olive Garden's social media team needs a revamp.
Professional subscribers can find more consumer trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. It's just one search away.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 06:55Trump doubles down on Reflecting Pool vandalism claim against ex-Olympian David Hearn, admits ‘some contractor error’
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Bitcoin 'Red Team' Says AI Is Finding 100s Of Critical Exploits Across Core Projects
Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypto.co,
A volunteer security initiative says it used frontier AI models to scan 150 Bitcoin repositories and found more than a dozen vulnerabilities as developers increasingly use artificial intelligence to audit blockchains.
In a post on X earlier this week, AnchorWatch CEO Rob Hamilton said the group has spent about $20,000 on AI services while building a "Bitcoin red team" platform.
“We have been working around the clock, with ~$20,000 of spend up to this point across different services,” he wrote.
“Funding is secured, I appreciate all the gestures for donations but it is not necessary. The bill is taken care of.”
A red team refers to cybersecurity professionals who test software from an attacker's perspective, probing for vulnerabilities before they can be exploited.
According to Hamilton, the Bitcoin red team uses Kimi K3 alongside OpenAI’s GPT Sol, Anthropic’s Claude Fable and Opus models, and Z.ai’s GLM 5.2 to identify vulnerabilities and generate supporting documentation.
“We also have been connected with OpenAI for some help so I could manage getting the Cyber Harness running as well,” he wrote.
“It's a much more expensive scan, but well worth it for load-bearing portions of the Bitcoin ecosystem and has already yielded good results.”
Pseudonymous Bitcoin developer Calle said the initiative has built multiple AI-powered review systems targeting wallets, cryptographic libraries, infrastructure, and other Bitcoin projects.
"We're averaging on the order of one critical exploit per hour per person,” Calle wrote on X.
“We've reported critical vulnerabilities to several projects in the last 12 hours. Thankfully, this is a very expensive exercise. We're burning through $10,000 per day."
According to Calle, in the first 29.8 hours of its operation, its team has found 4,962 potential issues across 390 projects.
As many as 720 of them are considered high- or critical-level issues.
So far, 21.4% of findings have been able to be reproduced.
The team did not disclose which projects were affected or provide details of the vulnerabilities.
The announcement comes as AI is playing a growing role in finding security flaws across the crypto industry.
Earlier this year, researchers using Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.8 uncovered a four-year-old flaw in Zcash that could have allowed attackers to create unlimited counterfeit ZEC. In August, Coinkite said it believes attackers used AI to identify the Coldcard wallet vulnerability, while Bitcoin bridge Boltz suspended its swap service after saying attackers were using AI to identify vulnerabilities faster than its team could patch them.
Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 06:30