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Leopold Aschenbrenner's Short Seller Fairy Tale
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund, stuffed like the ass of a Thanksgiving turkey with every trendy AI name you could throw a dart at, reportedly suffered one of the most spectacular drawdowns of recent memory, losing roughly 67% in July after a series of heavily leveraged bets went violently against it.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the losses became severe enough to trigger margin calls, forcing the firm into emergency asset sales. Public positions were reportedly sold to Citadel to raise liquidity, and the fund even negotiated a multibillion-dollar sale of its prized Anthropic stake before apparently changing its mind the following morning.
It is, in every sense of the word, the kind of month that reminds people leverage is not just a way to make returns bigger…it’s a way to make your mistakes arrive all at once.
What’s remarkable isn’t that the fund blew up just weeks after everyone in the media started slobbering over Aschenbrenner as if he was some visionary for figuring out the “strategy” of buying crap featured daily on CNBC using leverage. Markets have been humbling overconfident investors since the Dutch were trading tulips. What’s remarkable is that, according to reports describing the investor letter, Aschenbrenner partially blamed short sellers for accelerating the collapse, likening the experience to a bank run:
Aschenbrenner partially blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run. Aschenbrenner told investors that the firm had removed all leverage from the portfolio.
And that is where this story stops being about investing and starts becoming about accountability. There is perhaps no bigger bitch move in finance than levering yourself to the eyeballs into the most crowded, most euphoric, most narratively beloved sector on Earth, riding the momentum all the way to the top tick of a genuinely pornographic stock bubble, detonating your own portfolio when the inevitable correction arrives, and then looking around the room for someone else to blame.
That’s not what investors pay hedge fund fees for. They don’t wire you billions so you can discover, after the fact, that markets occasionally go down and that other participants are allowed to disagree with your positioning.
Let’s clear something up, because this myth refuses to die every goddamn market cycle: short sellers do not possess mystical powers to force stocks lower simply because they dislike them.
A short sale is not the financial equivalent of Voldemort casting a spell over the tape. A short seller borrows shares, sells them into the market, and eventually has to buy those same shares back. That’s the entire trade. If enough genuine buyers exist who are willing to absorb that selling pressure, the stock doesn’t go down, it goes up and the short seller gets obliterated. Ask me how I know.
We’ve watched this movie countless times. Tesla. GameStop. Nvidia. Countless biotech squeezes. The market has an extensive history of taking arrogant short sellers, introducing them to the concept of unlimited losses, and escorting them directly into bankruptcy.
The reason stocks collapse isn’t because shorts are somehow overpowering reality. Stocks collapse because the marginal buyer disappears. They collapse because valuations become impossible to justify. They collapse because the people who spent months insisting they would “buy every dip” suddenly become strangely unavailable once the dips become serious.
Shorts don’t create that dynamic. They participate in it. If they could simply dictate prices through force of will, every dedicated short seller would be richer than Warren Buffett, and every bubble in history would have ended before it began. Clearly that’s not how markets work.
What’s especially rich about blaming shorts is that leverage itself creates vastly more selling pressure than shorts ever could. Once your lenders start calling, you don’t get the luxury of diamond hands or inspirational letters about long-term conviction. Your positions get sold because they have to be sold. Every forced liquidation pushes prices lower, which triggers more margin calls, which produces more forced liquidations. It’s an ugly feedback loop that has existed for as long as people have borrowed money to speculate. That’s not market manipulation. That’s mathematics meeting risk management.
Or, in this case, mathematics meeting the complete absence of adequate risk management.
This wasn’t some unforeseeable meteor strike. AI stocks had become the most crowded trade in global markets. Valuations had detached from anything remotely resembling traditional fundamentals because everyone wanted exposure to “the future.” That doesn’t necessarily mean the companies are bad businesses. It does mean that expectations become impossibly high and positioning becomes dangerously one-sided. Every competent portfolio manager understands that crowded trades can reverse with astonishing violence precisely because everyone owns the same thing at the same time, often financed with borrowed money.
That’s supposed to be the point of risk management. You’re supposed to ask yourself, “What happens if I’m wrong?” You’re supposed to ask, “What happens if liquidity disappears?” You’re supposed to ask, “What happens if this correction is twice as bad as consensus expects?”
If the honest answer is, “My prime broker starts liquidating me,” then perhaps the position size deserved another look before the market did it for you.
Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of the reported letter is the instinct to externalize responsibility. Every market participant, CEO, investor and analyst deals with short sellers. Every market participant deals with volatility. Every market participant deals with critics, momentum reversals, liquidity squeezes, and crowded positioning. Those aren’t extraordinary circumstances. They’re literally the job description.
Professional portfolio management is not about predicting a future where nobody ever sells your favorite stock. It’s about constructing a portfolio that survives the future where they do.
Blaming shorts after a catastrophic drawdown is a bit like blaming gravity after jumping off a roof. Gravity was never hiding its intentions. It has behaved exactly the same way every single day since the beginning of time. The only surprise is that someone apparently built an investment strategy around the assumption that this time it would be different.
Markets are ruthless teachers because they don’t care how compelling your narrative is, how luxurious your head of hair is, how much CNBC worships you, or how impressive your reputation has become. They don’t care whether you’ve become an AI celebrity, whether Silicon Valley hangs on your every word, or whether investors think you’ve cracked the code. They simply tally the gains and losses. When the leverage becomes excessive, the bill always arrives. Sometimes it arrives all at once.
Welcome to reality, young man.
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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.
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"I've Been Doxed": Lefty Podcaster Scott Galloway Rips Mamdani After Landing On Socialist's Rich Target List
Prominent liberal podcaster and NYU professor Scott Galloway, who can only be described as a "useful idiot" for helping legitimize far-left New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, appears to be awakening from his political delusion.
Galloway now says he has been "doxed" after realizing that the socialist movement he helped empower is publicly identifying wealthy property owners (read report), including himself, as political and financial targets.
"I've been doxed," Galloway said on the latest episode of the "Pivot" podcast. "I don't know if you've heard, but Mayor Mamdani has decided to release a list of 950,000 residences, including addresses and names, that might be eligible for his pied-à-terre tax."
"I don't love this," co-host Kara Swisher agreed. "I can't say I love this. It feels a little bit like doxing. Just tax them and get on with it, is my feeling."
Related:
Galloway read out the definition of doxing to Swisher as "publishing private identifying information to expose someone to public pressure or harm without their consent," and pointed out that while he's not the biggest fan of the tax, he is certainly not a fan of how the far left in City Hall essentially created a "wanted poster" for property owners.
"He's taken a legitimate source of tax revenue, and he's turning it into a wanted poster," Galloway continued. "The question I would have is, other than trying to identify and imply these people have done something wrong — and then, 18 months after a healthcare CEO was executed in the street, published the list — what is the upside here? Why is he doing this?"
Spencer Pratt, who has become a leading anti-Marxist voice, commented on the Fox News article detailing Galloway's break with the far-left Mamdani. He said, "The communist refers to this person as the 'useful idiot'—the gullible squish who foolishly supports the revolution, and only begins to understand his folly as he's being lined up against the wall. If you think you're safe from the commies because you vote blue, wake up."
The communist refers to this person as the “useful idiot”. The gullible squish who foolishly supports the revolution, and only begins to understand his folly as he’s being lined up against the wall. If you think you’re safe from the commies cuz you vote blue, wake up: https://t.co/qGNbnBI9yE pic.twitter.com/8U8eY2x6fd
— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) August 1, 2026Pratt is entirely correct, because somehow Galloway missed the fact that Mamdani and the rest of the Democratic Socialists of America are not progressive at all; in fact, they're formalist socialists whose goal is not affordability, but rather "overthrowing capitalism."
Anti-communist analyst Karlyn Borysenko recently published a five-tiered "rainbow cake" view of the American left, ranging from establishment Democrats who favor incremental reform within capitalism to revolutionary socialists seeking to abolish and destroy the nation from within.
DSA is very open about their stated goals:
Returning to Galloway, he warned that Mamdani is "making it harder for all progressives." He's not wrong. The Trump administration has already built the infrastructure and task forces needed to confront the radical left, while publicly declaring that fight before delegations from 65 nations in recent weeks. At the center of that effort is an anti-communist information campaign that is already underway.
Full Conversation:
Perhaps Democrats should never have invited socialists, Marxists and, especially, the emerging "red-green alliance" into their DEI political kingdom.
Now the DSA and its Marxist allies, whose anti-American rhetoric increasingly reflects an effort to destroy the country from within, are becoming a liability for the entire Democratic Party. Some elements of this far-left movement may also intersect with foreign influence or subversion networks.
Tyler Durden Sat, 08/01/2026 - 11:05