Following the explosive growth signaled by S&P Global's PMI data last week, this week we get a final look for September's Manufacturing surveys and fresh data from ISM.
S&P Global's final September read for US Manufacturing dipped from the preliminary level but remains at its strongest since May 2022.
ISM's September survey of US Manufacturers also dipped at the headline level (54.5 vs 55.0 exp), but remains near multi-year highs.
“September has seen the pace of US manufacturing growth pick up a gear again," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, adding that PMI hit its highest since May 2022 as a surge in new orders encouraged factories to lift output sharply higher and take on workers in increasing numbers.
“Order book backlogs are rising and suppliers are increasingly busy, pointing to stretched capacity as companies struggle to meet demand across both consumer-facing and business sectors.
This is most notable in the investment and production of machinery and equipment, linked in many cases to rising AI-related spend.
Safety stock building amid price and supply chain worries also continues to support demand, though the ongoing loss of export orders remains a disappointment."
Once again, it was the domestic market that underpinned demand growth as new export orders fell for the fifteenth successive month.
Respondents were mixed...
Building on that strength, earlier we saw the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first drop back below the 200k Maginot Line (197k), signaling very little strain in the labor market (at least on the 'firing' side, while JOLTS recently signaled some pain on the 'hiring' side of the equation). Continuing Claims also fell back to its lowest level since March 2023...
Hawaii saw the biggest decline in jobless claims last week while Michigan saw the biggest rise...
As S&P Global's Williamson concludes, while sending an encouraging signal for further growth of manufacturing capacity in the coming months, the indication that demand is outstripping supply also means inflationary pressures remain a key area of concern, especially amid high oil prices.
Indeed, under the surface of the ISM data, we saw Prices Paid soar and both New Orders and Employment bounce...
"The combination of accelerating growth, increased hiring and elevated price gauges will add to speculation of a further imminent rate hike from the FOMC."
And, it is worth noting that the SOFR market is pricing a dramatically more hawkish Fed over the next year or two than the labor market data would suggest...
The 10Y yield spiked to the highs of the day on the PMIs...
Clearly the market thinks The Fed is favoring one side of its mandate much more dramatically than the other.
Tyler Durden Thu, 10/01/2026 - 10:05The Iran conflict is currently in an all too familiar stalemate, and many of the same statements are being regurgitated from each side - but this does indicate that negotiations have not yet entirely collapsed.
Tehran is still apparently reviewing a Trump administration counterproposal to last week's Iranian seven day ceasefire pitch (which Trump had promptly rejected). Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had confirmed Wednesday the reception of an official US response through mediators.
President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday proclaimed Iran "has never avoided" dialogue with the United States despite being attacked three times when negotiations were happening. Still, the Iranians have frequently emphasized they do not trust President Trump.
via Responsible StatecraftPezeshkian told a meeting of entrepreneurs that the government is "seriously seeking to resolve all issues and problems related to the business sector," as cited in Tasnim news. This comes as the Iranian rial has hit new record lows this week against the dollar.
"We have never avoided dialogue and will not do so, although the United States targeted our country three times. There is good coordination and synergy among the heads of state and everyone is seeking to resolve problems and shortcomings," Pezeshkian said.
This is also as the US naval blockade is biting, with reports suggesting Iranian crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz stands at near zero for the month of September.
Pezeshkian told the meeting that due to "restrictions at sea," the country is desperately seeking to widen import-export avenues via land with Pakistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
As for the US President, Trump has just reiterated to TIME that he may be escalating attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached.
"Because by annihilating Iran, we’ve created peace in the world," he said. "With Iran, I don’t think you could ever have peace."
At this point it is hard to keep track of just how many times he has proclaimed 'annihilating' Iran. Of course, if Iran has been annihilated, one wonders why Washington still sees it as a threat. The TIME interview has some interesting lines:
In Trump’s telling, he is simply doing what has to be done, even when that means breaking foundational promises to his voters. He campaigned as a president of peace, but is now waging a war he says was necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He points to Venezuela, where his removal of Nicolás Maduro and the elevation of Delcy Rodríguez have brought the country into Washington’s orbit, as proof that his projection of U.S. power can produce results.
...Except the 'Venezuela model' of quick in and out military intervention has not at all worked with Iran, which has produced a seven-month and counting little excursion quagmire.
After the Epic Fury major bombing campaign didn't collapse the government, the US administration is seeking to do so through all-out economic war and strangulation:
Operation Economic Outcast has caused the rial to hit record lows. We will continue to degrade the Iranian regime’s ability to fund terrorism and develop a nuclear weapon. pic.twitter.com/7XRpqKa2a7
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 28, 2026TIME further recounts, "By Trump’s own timeline, the war with Iran was supposed to be over already, with a new regime in place and a nuclear program throttled."
"But the Islamic Republic had proved resilient and resourceful, choking off oil through the Strait of Hormuz and sending tremors through the global economy," the report underscores.
Separately, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape has warned that Oct.1st could mark a new phase in the conflict. He writes that "Iran's 45-day deadline to the United States expired today."
"On August 16, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council decided that if Washington did not lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran would retain the option of launching renewed attacks against U.S. forces," Pape underscores. "That clock has now run out."
According to more on this prior deadline from Iran Wire:
Consensus within Tehran suggests low expectations for U.S. acceptance of these terms [Iran's conditions communicated to the US side last week]. Strategic advisor Mohammadi noted: “It is highly unlikely that Trump will submit to these conditions.” According to a report by Kyodo News, the Supreme National Security Council determined on August 16 that if the U.S. failed to lift port blockades within 45 days, Iran would reserve the right to resume strikes against U.S. forces. Current developments suggest Tehran has given Washington a seven-day window, bringing the region closer to a critical juncture amid limited prospects for genuine peace talks.
🇮🇷 Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with a satirical equation suggesting Washington, not Tehran, is running out of time.
The post responded to Bessent's claim that Iran could have "nothing left to trade" within two… https://t.co/k0JwBjeQWc
Pape concludes of the broad and unpredictable situation: "This is the Escalation Trap in its purest form. Washington’s strategy has been to increase pressure until Iran accepts American terms. Iran’s response has been to increase the cost of American pressure. Now the two strategies are colliding at a deadline." Iranian state media has on Oct.1st strongly signaled that national forces are ready for new confrontation and escalation.
Tyler Durden Thu, 10/01/2026 - 10:00The refined products crisis remains unresolved as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches.
Speaking in the Oval Office on Wednesday, President Trump said he holds discussions "every day" about a potential diesel export ban, blaming Russia's war in Ukraine for fueling the supply squeeze. His administration is now pressuring European governments to release emergency diesel inventories to contain further price surges and reduce the risk of an economic shock in the coming months.
Reuters reports that the Trump administration has asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel inventories to help create a buffer against the supply squeeze in the industrial fuel or face a potential US diesel export ban.
The total request calls for the release of 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months, according to a source in a European capital cited by the outlet. That would be equivalent to about 660,000 barrels a day of additional supply.
"It is in Europe's best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers," one source, a US official, told Reuters.
Trump warned yesterday in the Oval Office that an export ban would "have a negative impact on gasoline" prices but could lower diesel costs. He warned that Russia's war with Ukraine is the main driver of soaring prices. Russia recently extended an export ban on the industrial fuel.
Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus and Daan Struyven noted earlier this week that estimated "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, back to prewar levels. Still, refined product exports remain at just half of their 2025 averages.
Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari warned last month that the refining crisis would persist through 2027 and prolong the pain at the pump.
Elevated diesel prices across the West risk triggering an economic shock, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. He said that shock could be similar to what happened during the 2008 energy crisis.
Perhaps the first domino has already fallen: trucking companies with the weakest balance sheets fall first.
Bloomberg commodities expert Javier Blas wrote earlier on X, "Europe is finding itself sandwiched from all sides when it comes to refined products ... diesel in particular (some of the damage is due to the US-Iran war; some is due to Ukraine-Russia; some is due to China, and a lot is self-inflicted). Policy response: Head in the sand."
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the Trump administration expects announcements from Europe very soon about tapping emergency diesel supplies.
Tyler Durden Thu, 10/01/2026 - 09:54