Today's lone coupon auction, the sale of $16BN in 20Y notes, took place at 1pm, just an hour ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, and the auction was generally very strong, with maybe a one glitch.
The sale stopped at a high yield of 5.122%, up from 4.883% in April, and the second highest in the history of the 20Y auction with just the 5.257% in October '23 printing higher. The yield stopped on the screws with the When Issued 5.122%, and followed two stopping through auctions, and 11 of the past 12).
The bid to cover was 2.55, down from 2.68 in April and arguably the only weak spot in today's auction, as it was the lowest since February.
The internals were solid, with Indirects awarded 67.67%, up from 67.39% and the 63.5% recent average. And with Directs taking 22.9%, unchanged from the previous month, Dealers were left with 9.4%, down from 9.7% and one of the lowest Dealer awards on record.
Overall, this was a solid 7Y auction and one which had no problem finding buyers despite, or perhaps because of the recent surge in yields which today has reversed modestly thanks to lower oil prices.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:20
Update (1300ET): As we wrote earlier in anticipation, the US sought to unseal an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, sharply escalating a standoff with Havana as the Trump administration attempts to force change on the island after nearly seven decades of communist rule.
The charges are related to the shooting of two humanitarian planes in 1996.
The Department of Justice asked to unseal the indictment against Castro and five other people in a filing in federal court in Florida on Wednesday.
The indictment charges Castro with seven counts including conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, destruction of aircraft and murder for each of the four passengers aboard the planes being flown by Brothers to the Rescue, a group that conducted rescue missions for Cuban exiles who sought to flee the country.
For 30 years, Cuban exiles in America and their representatives in Congress such Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., pressured the DOJ to bring charges against the 94-year-old Ruz, his late brother Fidel, and others in connection with the Cuban MiG fighter jets shooting down the BTTR civilian planes when they were outside Cuban airspace and flying back toward Florida.
A number of Republican members of Congress on Wednesday morning held a press conference condemning the Communist Cuban regime and Ruz and saying they expected him to be charged. The indictment against Ruz was unsealed later in the day.
* * *
As American Greatness detailed earlier, the Trump administration is preparing to escalate pressure on Cuba’s communist regime by pursuing criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft operated by a Miami-based exile group.
According to reports, the charges are expected to be announced Wednesday and would center on the incident in which Cuban fighter jets destroyed two planes flown by Brothers to the Rescue, killing all four men aboard.
The US Department of Justice is expected to make the announcement in conjunction with a ceremony hosted by the US Attorney’s Office in Miami honoring the victims of the attack.
The indictment would mark a major escalation in President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Cuban regime, which has remained in power since Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959.
Raúl Castro, now 94, served as Cuba’s defense minister at the time of the attack and later succeeded his brother, Fidel Castro, as president.
The two planes belonged to Brothers to the Rescue, an organization formed by Cuban exiles in Miami that searched for refugees attempting to flee the island across the Florida Straits. Cuban authorities claimed the aircraft violated Cuban airspace and justified the attack as a defensive action.
The United States condemned the shootdown at the time and imposed sanctions on Havana, but previous administrations stopped short of criminally charging either Castro brother.
An international aviation investigation later concluded the planes were destroyed over international waters.
The expected indictment comes as the Trump administration intensifies its pressure campaign against Cuba’s socialist government. The administration has tightened sanctions and threatened penalties against countries supplying fuel to the island, worsening economic conditions and contributing to severe power shortages across Cuba.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently struck a defiant tone amid growing tensions with Washington.
“Despite the embargo, sanctions and threats of the use of force, Cuba continues on a path of sovereignty towards its socialist development,” Rodríguez said earlier this month.
The administration’s expected legal action against Castro mirrors previous moves against other anti-American socialist regimes in Latin America. Earlier this year, former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured following a US military raid after being indicted on drug trafficking charges.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:11By Robert Wilson of UtilityDive
Commercial electricity consumption is likely to surpass residential use for the first time on record in 2027, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The commercial sector, which includes hyperscalers, bitcoin miners and cloud computing, is expected to see electricity sales grow 2.2% to about 1,530 billion kWh in 2026 — roughly the same as the residential sector — followed by 5.3% growth the following year, EIA said.
Demand from the residential sector, which has historically accounted for the largest share of U.S. electricity use, will remain largely flat over the next two years, growing about 0.5% in 2026 and 2027. Total U.S. electricity consumption in 2026 will be almost 4,250 billion kWh, up 1.3% from 2025, and is expected to grow 3.1% in 2027.
Meanwhile, U.S. residential electricity prices will continue to rise amid growing demand, particularly from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, the EIA said.
Residential customers will pay an average of 18.2 cents/kWh this year, “a nearly 5% increase from 2025, which is similar to the increase in U.S. prices between 2024 and 2025,” EIA estimated. “We expect residential prices to grow at a slightly lower rate of 2% next year.”
“Residential prices have been growing in all regions of the United States, and we expect this trend to continue,” EIA said. Areas along the East coast will experience the largest increases in residential prices, with average annual growth as high as 7% for the next two years.
“Electric utilities in these regions are citing various factors for rising electricity rates, including higher fuel prices for generation and expenses for bolstering the transmission grid against extreme weather and to accommodate rising power demand,” the short-term outlook said.
Industrial sales, the smallest of the three segments, are also rising, according to EIA. “We forecast industrial electricity consumption will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 to reach a total of 1,095 [billion] kWh next year,” the monthly report said. “Increases in electricity demand for both the commercial and industrial sectors is strongest in the West South Central region, driven by data center and manufacturing growth in Texas.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:00Today's FOMC minutes, released at 2pm ET, will be closely watched for further details surrounding the increasingly hawkish split within the Committee following the April meeting, Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair. With three voters dissenting against retaining the easing bias - and Fedʼs Collins later suggesting she would have supported removing it too - markets will look to see how broad support was for removing the easing bias, particularly after Powell said more officials now view a hike just as likely as a cut, according to Newsquawk.
Discussions around inflation risks and the labor market will also be in focus given the current macro backdrop, with the jobs market viewed as stable while inflation remains above target and faces upside risks from the Middle East conflict. Traders will also watch for any early signs of debate surrounding future balance sheet policy with Warsh set to take over as Chair from Powell.
The April FOMC statement and vote split leaned hawkish. While outgoing Governor Miranʼs dissent in favor of a 25bps rate cut was widely expected, three voting members (plotted below) dissented against retaining the easing bias in the statement (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan).
As a reminder:
Elsewhere, the statement shifted inflation language, replacing “somewhat elevated” with “elevated”, while also attributing the move to higher global energy prices. On the Middle East, the Fed dropped the prior “uncertain implications” wording, instead stating directly that developments are “contributing to a high level of uncertainty”. Growth and labor market language was otherwise largely unchanged, with activity continuing to expand at a “solid pace” and unemployment “little changed”.
However, given energy prices have continued to rise in the wake of the meeting, and money markets are no longer pricing rate cuts this year (with markets currently discounting roughly a 60% probability of a hike by year-end), traders will look for evidence of how widespread inflation concerns were within the Committee and what conditions could push the Fed towards hikes. That said, the minutes reflect discussions held at the time of the meeting, meaning the recent hot CPI and PPI reports will not yet be incorporated.
Powell said policy remains in a “good place” to wait and see, but acknowledged the Committee is moving closer to dropping its easing bias, with more officials now viewing hikes just as likely as cuts. While he stressed no one is actively calling for hikes at present, analysts noted that the threshold for future easing has risen, with the Fed wanting more confidence around tariffs and energy prices before considering cuts. Powell also warned that core inflation risks are “real”. He added that, beyond the three official dissenters, several non-voters also favored removing the easing bias but ultimately supported the decision to hold rates.
That dynamic may create challenges for incoming Chair Warsh, whose first meeting will be in June. While Warsh has advocated lower rates, he may find limited support for a more dovish stance within the current Committee. Bowman and Waller remain among the more dovish officials, though neither has backed immediate easing in the way Miran did. Note, the latest reports suggest Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chair this Friday at a White House event.
Additionally, Warsh has advocated for a tighter balance sheet policy. Last week, Fed Governor Barr argued that easing bank liquidity requirements to shrink the Fedʼs balance sheet would undermine financial stability and increase the Fedʼs market footprint. Barr said the 2023 banking stresses suggest liquidity requirements should rise, not fall. As such, traders will also watch the minutes for any discussion surrounding future balance sheet strategy alongside the debate over the easing bias.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 12:45