Aggregator
Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom
Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended "very quickly," but investors remained uncertain about the potential for de-escalation.
"We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly, they're tired of - this should have happened for 47 years," Trump told a group of Congress members at the White House's annual congressional picnic on Tuesday.
"Somebody should have done something about it. And it's going to happen, and it's going to happen fast. And you're going to see oil prices plummet," the president added.
Oil's declines were also reportedly driven by this optimism about a final deal draft peace agreement:
On Tuesday, two Chinese tankers carrying crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz.
Another, a South Korean vessel, was passing through it, according to a Reuters report. Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, noted that this marks "one of the busiest days since the closure."
However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards also warned on Wednesday that any renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region.
The IRGC also said it had not used all its capacities against the U.S. and Israel, while warning that their "devastating blows will crush" the adversaries, the IRGC said in a statement on its Sepah News website.
For now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (and SPR) after yuuuge draws reported by API overnight...
API
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Crude -9.1mm (-3.4mm exp)
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Cushing -1.4mm
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Gasoline -5.8mm
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Distillates -1.0mm
DOE
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Crude -7.863mm (-6.0mm exp)
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Cushing -1.604mm
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Gasoline -1.548mm
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Distillates +372k
Crude stocks tumbled last week (biggest draw since Feb 13th) for the fourth week in a row. Gsoline inventories saw their 14th weekly drawdown in a row whil distillates saw another small build...
Source: Bloomberg
Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns continue to accelerate with 9.92mm barrels/day - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been drained in the last few weeks...
Source: Bloomberg
Total US crude stocks including the SPR are at the lowest level since June 2025 with this week seeing the largest SPR + Commercial stock drawdown in history...
Gasoline stockpiles continued their steady decline last week, falling another 1.5 million barrels. Stocks are still at the lowest seasonal levels since 2014.
Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching 'tank bottoms' once again...
US Crude production dipped very modestly last week...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI (July 2026) suddenly plunged below $100 just ahead of the official data (on peace deal optimism) and extended the losses after the big draw...
Finally, though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end.
"The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie.
"The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."
The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.
It appears that American drivers will face the highest gas prices ever for Memorial Day...
...not great for Midterms/Approval ratings.
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Samsung Union Postpones Massive General Strike, Puts Wage Deal To Vote
Summary:
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Samsung Union Postpones Massive Strike For Union Vote On Saturday
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Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse
Late Wednesday night in South Korea, Samsung and its largest union held last-minute negotiations ahead of a massive general strike.
Vice Minister Kwon Chang-jun of the Ministry of Employment and Labor joined the negotiating table between Samsung and its largest union, a move that appears to have led to a breakthrough.
South Korea's national wire service, Yonhap, reports that the union has postponed plans for a strike tomorrow and will put a tentative wage deal to a vote.
"We will postpone the general strike scheduled for May 21-June 7 until further notice," Samsung and the union wrote in a joint press release.
The vote on the tentative wage deal begins on Saturday.
Earlier, the union pressed forward with plans for a general strike at Samsung chip fabs due to the company negotiators' inability to scrap an existing bonus cap, allocate 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and formalize these new demands in a wage contract.
Samsung had previously proposed allocating 10% of operating profit to bonuses, along with a one-time special compensation package for workers that is well above industry standards.
Samsung executives argued that the union's demands would be challenging to sustain in the coming years.
Why the union is striking...
Crisis averted? Well, all eyes are on the weekend vote.
Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks CollapseAsian equities extended losses for a fourth straight session, with South Korea's benchmark KOSPI falling about 1% as the market priced in the shock of an imminent labor action at Samsung Electronics.
A full-scale, 18-day strike involving more than 47,000 workers at the world's largest memory-chip maker is set to begin Thursday, raising the risk of production disruptions across the global semiconductor supply chain, which is already tight due to AI data center buildouts.
Samsung Electronics' talks with its largest union collapsed overnight as union negotiators demanded the removal of a bonus cap, allocation of 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and that those terms be written into contracts, citing memory-chip maker SK Hynix's 10% profit-sharing arrangement.
Samsung negotiators accepted most of the demands, including a proposed 10% operating profit bonus pool and special compensation, but called the union's remaining requests unsustainable.
"We deeply regret that the post-mediation process has concluded [without resolution] due to delays in decision-making by the management," Samsung Electronics Labor Union Chairman Choi Seung-ho told reporters at the National Labor Relations Commission in the city of Sejong. "We cannot help but feel disappointed that the mediation ended without the company ultimately reaching a decision."
Japan's financial outlet Nikkei Asia reported, "The strike would affect only the company's domestic plants, which are the base of its chipmaking operations."
The collapse in talks comes as Samsung shares surge on record profits, driven by soaring demand for memory chips, even as hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex to build AI infrastructure in the US. Demand is also rising globally as the race for AI compute intensifies.
TrendForce data show that Samsung is the world's largest memory chipmaker, with a 36% market share in DRAM chips and one-third in NAND Flash chips.
Commenting on the market reaction, UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted:
"Asia was lower for a fourth consecutive session, with the KOSPI dropping as much as 3% on Samsung strike risk before partially recovering."
UBS analyst Kevin Loke commented on the FX reaction:
USDKRW initially traded with an offered tone, with spot opening at 1513.4 and falling nearly 10 won to a low of 1503.8. However, headlines that the Samsung union strike will proceed as planned on Thursday, following a breakdown in talks, pushed the pair back higher toward 1510.
A BoK report to the president estimated a potential impact of up to KRW30 trillion in lost production. For now, USDKRW is likely to remain within a broader 1480–1520 range, with the pair relatively less sensitive to the recent thematic shift toward the global bond sell-off.
Samsung shares fell as much as 4.4% before reversing their losses. Notice "Samsung Strike" headlines in corporate media weighing on shares...
Coverage:
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Samsung Strike Threat Sparks Selling Contagion In Memory Stocks
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Samsung, South Korean Union Resume Talks As Strike Threat Risks Disrupting Memory Chip Fabs
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Samsung, Union Resume Talks After Labor Action Scare; Goldman Says "Korea: Buy"
Bloomberg pointed out, "The government has previously hinted that it could resort to rarely used emergency powers to prevent a strike if the parties fail to reach an agreement. South Korea has invoked the emergency arbitration mechanism only four times since 1969."
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:08Federal fraud investigation targeting Ilhan Omar
Xi Warns US Against New Iran Strikes, Denounces 'Law Of The Jungle', As Putin Talks Energy Leverage In Beijing Summit
Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin for a high-stakes summit on Wednesday, just days after wrapping up closely watched talks with Trump, which by all accounts failed to produce any Washington-Beijing breakthroughs.
The optics were carefully engineered, and many international outlets observed Putin's state welcome was no less lavish and opulent than Trump's own, with the Russian leader entering Great Hall of the People with full military pomp, children waving flags, and the standard marching band - again, strikingly similar to the red-carpet treatment rolled out for Trump last week.
For example, Al Jazeera writes that "We were expecting a more low-key ceremony, but he actually received an identical welcome treatment as Trump last week." And more:
He had the red carpet rolled out for him; he received a 21-gun salute, as well as children waving Russian and Chinese flags, saying, ‘We warmly welcome you.’
The only difference is who greeted Putin at the airport. With Trump, it was Han Zheng, the vice president, and for Putin, it was Wang Yi, the foreign minister.
via SputnikPresident Xi in his opening remarks delivered a sharp critique of the current geopolitical landscape, warning that the world is at risk of regressing into the "law of the jungle" - but hailed the Beijing-Moscow alliance as a crucial stabilizing force against what he later termed "all unilateral bullying" in the international arena, which appeared a passing jab at the United States. The very timing of the Putin summit has widely been viewed as a display of leverage.
Among key moments is that Xi called for "a comprehensive ceasefire" in the Middle East and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He characterized the standoff situation in the Persian Gulf as a "critical juncture between war and peace." Xi called for the "unimpeded flow" of crude transit through the strait, as it is in "the common interest of the international community."
"My four-point proposal for maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East aims to further build international consensus and contribute to easing tensions, deescalating conflict, and promoting peace," Xi said on the Iran crisis according to state news outlet Xinhua. Noticeably absent, however, was mention of finding peace in Ukraine. They agreed that it was "necessary to address the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis."
As for Iran, Xi also explicitly noted that further hostilities in the Middle East were "inadvisable" and that a "comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency." Putin during the summit sought to assure Beijing that Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid global oil supply shocks, noting their bilateral relationship sits at an"unprecedentedly high level."
He even at one point invoked a classical Chinese proverb to describe his relationship with Xi: "Even if we haven’t seen each other for a day, it feels like three autumns have passed."
Xi Jinping welcomed Putin at Tiananmen Square
The leaders of Russia and China have concluded their talks in Beijing. The two sides signed around 40 bilateral agreements on cooperation in various spheres.
However, the future of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline remains… pic.twitter.com/mnvLmYkwDi
Below are some quick highlights based on some emerging reporting Wednesday:
Treaty Extension: The signing of a wave of bilateral agreements across technology, trade, and intellectual property, anchored by the extension of the 25-year-old "China-Russia treaty of good neighborliness and friendly cooperation."
The Energy Lifeline: Putin countered by assuring Beijing that Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid global oil supply shocks, noting their bilateral relationship sits at an "unprecedentedly high level."
The Crude Lifeline: China remains critical in terms of an outside Russian economic lifeline, purchasing nearly 50% of Moscow's total oil exports as Western sanctions continue to squeeze Russia's domestic capital.
On potentially reviving a major stalled Russian gas pipeline project, CNBC wrote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday, with the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline on the agenda, as the Iran war disrupts energy supplies.
Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said Tuesday that the project “will be discussed in great detail between the leaders.”
The planned 2,600-kilometer pipeline would carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia’s Yamal fields to China via Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing signed a legally binding memorandum to advance construction in September 2025, but pricing, financing terms, and a delivery timeline remain unresolved.
Later this year, in November, both Presidents Trump and Putin could attend the APEC summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) on Chinese soil.
via BloombergThe White House website hints at APEC summit attendance: "President Trump and President Xi agreed that the United States and China should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of fairness and reciprocity. President Trump will welcome President Xi for a visit to Washington this fall. The two countries will support each other as the respective hosts of the G20 and APEC Summits later this year."
In the context of the Iran conflict Trump has lifted some oil sanctions on Russia, making its oil trade a key beneficiary of the US-Israel initiated war. "Russia has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the Middle East conflict due to the massive supply vacuum created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris, has commented. "Global refiners are desperate for alternative medium-sour crudes, a need that Russia’s Urals grade specifically meets."
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:05