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Chicago is looking to replicate their '25 magic when they take on the Lions and Packers at home.

US Gasoline Inventories Plunging On Surging Exports, Resilient Demand

Prompt Brent/WTI crude nearby futures increased by 5/7% week-over-week to $105/101 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained very low and on limited signs of progress on a US-Iran deal.

Meanwhile, as global oil inventories collapse at a record pace yet sliding Chinese demand and strategic releases from Beijing keep crude prices relatively stable, Goldman writes that the US gasoline market has become very tight, with inventories drawing at a rapid average pace of 0.7mb/d since April 1st to 5% below their historical seasonal median this week.

This has been driven by a combination of:

• Surging net exports demand. US gasoline net exports are up 0.34mb/d year-over-year (4-week average) 

• Resilient domestic demand. Gasoline demand is resilient at just 0.2mb/d below its year-ago level (no demand destruction yet) and we are now entering the summer driving season.

• Price incentives to shift production to distillates. Strong jet fuel and diesel margins are incentivizing refineries to increase yields of those products. 

On the pricing side, wholesale gasoline prices in the US are approximately 15% ($21/bbl) higher than in Asia and Europe (Exhibit 1 above), and US retail prices are just $0.5/gal below their all-time high.

Goldman says that while it's not the bank's base case, the probability of US oil export restrictions likely rises with US retail gasoline prices. 

Turning to oil, the IEA estimates in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) an April deficit of 5.3mb/d, suggesting that the deficit may be less large than most had estimated last month, driven by:

Slightly lower IEA demand. Since the beginning of the crisis, the IEA has cumulatively (May - Feb OMR) downgraded its estimate of April demand by 3.1mb/d to 100.4mb/d (vs. a slightly smaller downgrade of 2.9mb/d in Goldman's balance).

• By product: Net cumulative downgrades by the IEA were largest (in mb/d terms) for LPG and ethane (11%), naphtha (13%), and jet and kerosene (7%) for which Goldman has also been seeing the highest risks of scarcity of supply. 
• By region: Net cumulative downgrades were largest for the Middle East (11%), China (5%), EM Asia ex China ex India (5%), and OECD Asia Oceania (7%). Notably, the IEA upgraded US demand from last month’s OMR by 0.5mb/d on resilient diesel and gasoline demand.

• Less large IEA drop in Middle East Supply. The IEA estimates Gulf (defined as Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) crude supply in April at 15.0mb/d, which is 4.0mb/d higher than the previous Goldman balance estimate (11.0mb/d) and 1.2mb/d higher than OPEC secondary sources (13.8mb/d).
  • The IEA supply beat was driven primarily by Iran and the UAE, likely reflecting less binding storage constraints than expected due to untrackable storage capacity.

The IEA reports that SPR releases from IEA countries averaged 2.1mb/d in April (but picked up significantly in the second half of the month). This has been a significantly larger offset for crude than for refined products — of the 90mb of total government inventories released since March 11th, 82mb are crude oil, while only 8mb are refined products.

US production in 2026 Q1 also surprised to the upside, with the modest beats concentrated in oil production by E&Ps (+2.1%) and liquids production by majors (+1.3%).

More in the full Goldman oil tracker note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 12:25

Victims of fraud may soon be seeing green.

Kouri Richins was allegedly hellbent on taking down her foes from behind bars including enlisting her family to make a fake gay dating profile for the lead cop in her murder case.

Alex Murdaugh’s lawyers revealed the new evidence they’ll introduce at retrial to argue the disgraced legal scion’s innocence in his wife and son’s murders.

Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) announced Friday he will not seek another term in Congress after the Volunteer State's legislature redrew his Memphis-area district.

The mix-up took place when the Princess of Wales and her husband visited the Shire Hall Care Home in Cardiff, Wales, in August 2020.

The mix-up took place when the Princess of Wales and her husband visited the Shire Hall Care Home in Cardiff, Wales, in August 2020.

"I think we'll be fine."

The Fed Is Losing Its Biggest Dove

Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires today, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor.

The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership.

Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come to an end.

Most noteworthy during his term, he dissented at all six FOMC meetings he attended, consistently pushing for 50-basis-point rate cuts.

It’s not a stretch to say he was the Fed’s biggest dove.

In the graphic below, we circle Miran’s year-end Fed Funds projection in the latest Fed’s dot plot.

As shown, Miran projected a year-end 2026 Fed Funds rate of 2.625%, nearly a full percentage point below the current median of 3.42%. That dovish voice is now gone.

Warsh’s arrival shifts the balance. Here are a few considerations worth keeping in mind:

• The Fed tilted slightly more hawkishly: Warsh may prove more dovish than his reputation suggests, but it is nearly impossible he will match Miran’s appetite for cuts.

• The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is unlikely to produce action. Given recent inflation data, we see little appetite for rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting despite new leadership.

• Powell isn’t gone. He has pledged to remain a Fed Governor through January 2028, or until ongoing investigations into the Fed’s construction project and legal challenges against Governor Lisa Cook reach what he calls “transparency and finality.”

The bottom line: The Fed just got incrementally more hawkish, and the June meeting will be the first test of what that actually means. Moreover, Kevin Warsh will now be on the speaking circuit, so we can better ascertain his thoughts on inflation, employment, and how he will lead the Fed going forward.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 12:05

The Dodgers won their second consecutive game over the Giants on Thursday night, but it was nonetheless a frustrating day at the ballpark for Dalton Rushing.

"It's the haves versus the have-nots, how the powerful and politically connected can get away with things no one else would," Alyssa Farah Griffin said of the infamous case. 

Jumping the Gun headlines the field for the 2026 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.

The theme of Season 5 seems to be how we're divided and disconnected from each other, but only one of the couples adheres to this theme.

New bettors can use the Kalshi promo code NYPMAX to trade $10 and get $10 for the NBA Playoffs.

As for Botox? "I have literally put it in my forehead so many times that — I’m not even kidding — I think the muscle has atrophied," the actress said.

As for Botox? "I have literally put it in my forehead so many times that — I’m not even kidding — I think the muscle has atrophied," the actress said.

We can't wait to see Hurts and Barkley take on the Seahawks and Rams at Lincoln Financial Field.

Doo the right thing, Manhattan. Putrid piles of dog poo have been increasingly plaguing the city’s priciest borough since 2022, skidding to an all-time high in February, a disgusting new analysis found. Manhattan Borough President Brad Hoylman-Sigal dropped the study Friday as Mayor Zohran Mamdani and City Council members howled about the SCOOP Act —...

"Sesame Street" creators are even supporting the fish’s moniker.