We noted on Thursday that, once President Trump's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded, the Trump team's next focus would likely shift back toward Cuba. That pivot now appears underway. Aboard Air Force One early Friday, while returning stateside, Trump told reporters that "Cuba needs our help," signaling the Caribbean island nation is moving higher on the administration's agenda.
A new AP report offers more insight into how the Trump administration is shifting attention back toward Cuba: CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with officials in Havana on Thursday, reopening a channel for political dialogue between the two countries.
Havana, Cuba pic.twitter.com/7S7TtJPyf5
— CIA (@CIA) May 14, 2026Ratcliffe and top U.S. officials, some of whose faces were blurred in images released by the CIA on X, held high-level talks with Cuba's Interior Minister, the head of Cuban intelligence, and Raúl Castro's grandson, Raulito Rodríguez Castro.
Havana's communist government released a statement noting that the meeting "took place Thursday, May 14, against a backdrop of complex bilateral relations."
AP noted that Cuban officials presented a report to Ratcliffe and his team, claiming to demonstrate that the communist-run island poses no threat to U.S. national security.
Consequently, Havana maintains there are no legitimate grounds for its continued inclusion on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism.
As per The Washington Times, "Cuba's intelligence apparatus is training foreign nationals to wage war against the West."
Thursday's meeting comes after a report that Cuba's power grid collapsed further into blackout conditions, as Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy warned that the island is completely out of fuel for diesel generators. This comes as Trump's fuel blockade remains in effect.
Let's not forget that the Trump team is prepared to provide $100 million in direct humanitarian assistance if Havana moves forward with political reforms after decades of nation-killing communism.
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Trump and his team appear to be refocusing their efforts on the Western Hemisphere, with more news on Cuba likely to come next week.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 11:44By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
Yesterday, Trump spoke with Xi in Beijing. While markets kept a watchful eye on any headlines about the war in Iran, palates were left dry as only tepid announcements dripped out, such as that China “offered help” on Iran and “pledged not to send weapons.” What they did not manage to evade was a conversation about Taiwan. During the two and a half hour conversation with Trump, Xi underscored that US intervention in Taiwan could trigger a “highly dangerous situation.” While Rubio underscored that the topic of American arms sales to Taiwan wasn’t a major focus of discussion, it likely will be when Congress’ approved USD 14bn arms sale to Taiwan lands on Trump’s desk, and again when Xi visits the White House in September.
While the US and China are stalled in the geopolitical arena, the financial scene seems to be bearing fruit. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced that conversations around the creation of a “Board of Investment” were underway, and that tariffs would be reduced or removed for products that the US doesn’t plan on reshoring, like fireworks. China also agreed to buy 200 “big” Boeing planes, according to Trump, which would mark the first significant Chinese purchase of Boeing jets since the last time Trump went to Beijing in 2017. China also hinted that they may intend to buy more US energy to compensate for flows disrupted by the war.
Though Iran didn’t appear to produce much in the way of headlines, the Strait is still closed, and Brent crude oil is still trading above $100/bbl at $106/bbl at the time of writing. According to Reuters, the IRGC announced that some 30 vessels have crossed the Strait since Wednesday (with Tehran’s permission), and transit is being permitted for “some” Chinese vessels.
US Treasury yields closed higher after hotter-than-expected trade price data for April printed, with import prices up 1.9% m/m and export prices up 3.3% m/m. These were the fastest monthly price index increases since early 2022 for both. However, the import price index, excluding petroleum, registered more modest gains of only 0.7% which, while hotter than the expected print of 0.5%, is cooler than levels seen as recently as January and February of this year. USD was the best performing G10 currency yesterday on a one day view. Yesterday afternoon saw a surge in yields across the board, absent a clear driver in sparse news flow, as the 2 year closed 3bp higher, above 4.00%.
Warsh was recently voted in as Fed Chair by the US Senate, but this creates a game of grown up musical chairs for the Board of Governors. There can only be seven Governors on the FOMC, and with Powell not giving his seat up just yet, if no one steps down, we have eight. However, Stephen Miran has announced that he would be stepping down as Governor and has submitted his resignation, effective upon Warsh being sworn in. Miran also assured that while he believes it’s important that the Fed only have one chair, Powell could help Warsh through the transition.
Bloomberg’s Anna Wong hit Powell with an uncomfortable reality check: “if Powell’s Fed had been more active in getting its own house in order following a massive miss on inflation, outsiders would have had less motive and opportunity to attack.” Powell’s Fed was criticized for its slow response to the inflationary pressures which led to “the Great Inflation.” Wong summarizes that “[Powell’s] limited push for accountability, such as a thorough review of Fed’s forecasting framework, opened the door to the nomination of a more aggressive outside like Warsh, who has vowed to ‘break some heads’ at the Fed. The moral of story: Get your own house in order or someone will do it for you.”
Across the pond, UK Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, resigned from his role in an attempt to take over Starmer’s seat. In a statement posted to X, Streeting outlined his accomplishments as Health Secretary, but claimed that he has “lost confidence” in Starmer’s leadership, partially due to the success of the Reform party in elections across the UK last week. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has also thrown his hat into the ring after MP Josh Simmons resigned, allowing Burnham to run for Parliament and make a bid for Labour leader as well.
The 30 year gilt yield is down from yesterday’s level of 5.74% to 5.67%, and GBP was the worst performing G10 currency on a one day view, depreciating 0.9% against USD and 0.6% against EUR, and on a month-to-date view, dropped from the fourth worst performing G10 currency to the worst. See Jane Foley’s commentary on GBP here.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 11:30Days after the U.S. bombing campaign against Iran began, we pointed out on March 3 that the conflict was likely to accelerate a major Gulf infrastructure push to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea stood out as the clearest signal that regional producers needed a credible Plan B for moving crude and crude products when the Hormuz chokepoint becomes disrupted. That logic is now coming into sharper focus for the UAE.
March 3:
Surprising Fujairah is not a bigger oil terminal: it bypasses the straits completely.
Expect major infrastructure push here after the war. https://t.co/Do1gK7KBDQ
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) is the UAE's state-owned energy giant and is set to double its crude-export capacity that bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint next year with the construction of a new pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, according to a new Bloomberg report.
The pipeline project would expand an existing 1.5 million-barrel-a-day pipeline, which has become critical for ADNOC amid the ongoing Hormuz disruption. This allows the UAE to keep about half of its oil exports flowing to the world.
BREAKING: UAE discloses it’s building an additional second pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The new pipeline will be finished in 2027 and will double the country’s export capacity in Fujairah (the current pipeline has a capacity of 1.5-1.8m b/d) pic.twitter.com/adsRgnDbjX
The current bottleneck for the UAE is that ADNOC's pipeline can handle only about half of its normal export volumes, limiting revenues and proving particularly troubling for the Gulf producer, whose oil-related activity accounted for 22.7% of GDP in Q1 2025.
The urgency to divert flows, or in fact rewire energy flows, will be a top priority for other Gulf producers because oil still matters heavily for public finances and their billionaires.
Perhaps Gulf producers received another memo after President Trump's comments on Air Force One earlier today, following his China trip, when he said the U.S. does not need to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint. The U.S. still has a naval blockade in place to pressure Iran's energy complex into collapse, with hopes that Tehran will sign a peace deal.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2026 - 11:15