As DB's Jim Reid tallies overnight, it has now been 73 days since the war in Iran began, with the past 32 marked by a stalemate characterized by a mix of truce and ongoing ceasefire. The absence of any meaningful kinetic activity for over a month suggests a firm US preference for reaching a deal. However, a counterpoint is that uncertainty over who holds negotiating authority in Iran may be complicating progress and delaying more difficult times ahead. It remains an unusual conflict with little action now for a month. In simple terms though, as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife edge. Polymarket currently assigns a 39% probability to it fully reopening by 30 June.
The latest is that oil and yields are up again this morning as President Trump has posted that "I have just read the response from Iran's so called 'Representatives'" which he went on to call "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE". This was based on a WSJ report that suggested Iran was offering to transfer some of highly enriched uranium to another country but wouldn't dismantle its nuclear facilities. Iran's official news agency has disputed the report anyway. Brent is up +4.23% and 10yr US yields are up +3.5bps. However, US and European equity futures are largely flat and Asian equities are largely higher on the AI trade. The KOSPI is on fire again with the index up +4.0% as semiconductors surge again. The index has crossed +85% YTD.
This comes ahead of the planned mid-to end week meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It’ll be interesting to see whether this meeting does anything to shape negotiations in the war. Both leaders would clearly like to show their influence on the world stage. So certainly the biggest headline event of the week (full preview here).
Before that, the new week arrives with markets still processing last Friday’s US payrolls report, which came in broadly firm and reinforced the view that labor market conditions remain resilient. While not strong enough to decisively alter the policy outlook, the release did little to ease concerns that underlying inflation pressures could persist, especially given still-solid wage dynamics. Against this backdrop, outside of the Iran War developments which will of course take center stage, the coming week will remain centered on the US, with a dense run of data and policy developments.
This week's focal point will be tomorrow’s April CPI report. DB economists expect headline inflation to rise by +0.58% month-on-month, moderating from March’s +0.9%, but still relatively firm. In contrast, the core measure is projected to accelerate to +0.39% MoM from +0.2%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as energy-related effects fade. The YoY rates would move from 3.3% to 3.8% for the former and from 2.6% to 2.8% for the latter.
Producer price data follows on Wednesday and then the remainder of the week shifts towards activity indicators. DB economists expect retail sales to decline by -0.3% MoM after March’s strong +1.7% increase, pointing to some payback in consumer spending. Meanwhile, industrial production is forecast to rise modestly by +0.2% MoM following a -0.5% drop previously, suggesting a tentative stabilization in manufacturing output.
Policy and politics will also be important. A Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is scheduled for today, just days before Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire at the end of the week. It's possible the vote could get pushed back a day or so due to other Senate business but by the end of the week you would expect Warsh to have taken Miran's seat on the board with Powell staying on the committee.
In Europe, inflation readings from Denmark and Norway today are followed with Germany’s ZEW survey tomorrow with sentiment darkening even with the nation's extraordinary fiscal package. Later in the week, the ECB’s economic bulletin may offer additional context on the central bank’s assessment of inflation and activity trends.
In the UK, attention will be split between politics and macro. The State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech on Wednesday will outline the government’s legislative agenda for the year ahead. With PM Starmer under tremendous pressure following the very poor (but broadly as expected) local election results on Thursday there is talk of a leadership challenge as soon as today. Backbench MP Catherine West has said she will stand, which would be a stalking horse nomination. However, many left-wing MPs (as she is) have urged her not to as their preferred candidate Andy Burnham is not currently an MP. They fear an election now might be a bit too early and may allow a more moderate candidate like Wes Streeting to prevail. So timing tactics could prolong Starmer’s reign. A reminder that in September last year, Mr Burnham said that the UK should no longer be “in hock to the bond markets”. This caused a spike in Gilt yields and although he subsequently downplayed the remarks, this is something to watch carefully as we navigate the politics of the next few days and weeks. On the data side, Q1 UK GDP on Thursday will offer up the latest state of play growth wise.
In Asia, Japan’s schedule includes household spending data tomorrow, alongside the Economy Watchers survey and bank lending figures on Wednesday. In addition, the Bank of Japan will publish its summary of opinions from the April meeting, which should provide greater insight into policymakers’ thinking and any emerging shifts in the policy stance.
There are multiple appearances from Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ officials throughout the week, and on the corporate front, earnings continue at a steadier pace. In the US, Cisco and Applied Materials are among the key names, while internationally the focus includes major firms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Siemens and Bayer. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview.
Source: Earnings WhispersCourtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday May 11
Tuesday May 12
Wednesday May 13
Thursday May 14
Friday May 15
Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Presidents Williams, Goolsbee, Collins, Kashkari, Schmid, and Hammack and Governor Barr on Thursday.
Monday, May 11
Tuesday, May 12
Wednesday, May 13
Thursday, May 14
Friday, May 15
Source: DB, Goldman
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:35Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the country’s forces to continue military operations against the US and Israel, according to a report by Iranian public broadcaster IRIB released Sunday.
The order came during a meeting between Khamenei and Major General Ali Abdollahi, the commander of the Iranian army's Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters. "During this meeting, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Sayyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, while expressing appreciation for the brave and valiant fighters and the country’s powerful armed forces, issued new directives and guidance for continuing operations and confronting enemies decisively," the report said.
via AFPAbdollahi also "presented a report on the readiness of the armed forces" during the meeting, IRIB added. The report comes after two months of speculation and unverified media claims about the Supreme Leader's status.
Western news outlets like The Guardian and The Times had claimed earlier in the war that Khamenei was in a coma following the US-Israeli strikes that assassinated his father. Reports also claimed that he fled to Russia.
Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol in the office of Iran's supreme leader, recently stated that Khamenei was healing from minor injuries he sustained and "is now in complete health."
"Thank God, he is in good health. The enemy is spreading all kinds of rumors and false claims. They want to see him and find him, but people should be patient and not rush. He will speak to you when the time is right," the Iranian official stated.
The IRIB report came a day after CNN cited US intelligence as saying that Khamenei "is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials."
It also comes days after Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met with the supreme leader. "What struck me most during this meeting was the vision and the humble and sincere approach of the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution," he said.
Tehran has sent out its response to a new US proposal for a ceasefire via Pakistan, according to state media. The US has maintained an illegal blockade of Iranian ports since the ceasefire began.
Washington violated the truce days ago by bombing Iran's coast and attacking two vessels. Iranian forces targeted two US military vessels in response. The next day, skirmishes broke out between Iranian and US forces in the Strait of Hormuz.
Spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, Ebrahim Rezaei, said on Sunday that Tehran will strike US military bases and vessels in response to any new violations from Washington – stressing that "restraint has come to an end."
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:20UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed this morning to fight any bid to topple him, insisting he is “not going to walk away” and claiming that the country would never forgive Labour if it indulged in the “chaos” of a leadership contest.
“I know that people are frustrated by the state of Britain, frustrated by politics, and some people frustrated with me,” Starmer said in London on Monday.
“I know I have my doubters, and I know I need to prove them wrong.”
Starmer is fighting to stay in 10 Downing St. after a drubbing in local election results triggered a wave of Labour MPs to call for his departure.
He had a brief moment of respite on Monday when a former minister, Catherine West, withdrew her threat to force an immediate leadership contest, though she said she’d still push for a timetable for Starmer’s exit.
“I have listened to the prime minister’s speech this morning,” she told the BBC.
“I welcome the renewed energy and ideas. However, I have reluctantly concluded that this morning’s speech was too little too late.”
Starmer’s speech was light on new policy. The prime minister announced the government would legislate to take full ownership of British Steel, which is already under temporary government control. He also announced more investment in education programs like apprenticeships, technical colleges and in special educational needs.
Starmer sharpened his rhetoric against the populist parties who made strong gains at last week’s elections, warning that the country risks going down a “dark path,” as he stood behind a podium that read “Stronger Fairer Britain.”
“We are not just facing dangerous times but dangerous opponents,” he said, name-checking both Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the Greens’ Zack Polanski.
“If we don’t get this right our country will go down a very dark path.”
Gilts fell, with the 10-year yield rising as much as 8 basis points to the day’s high of 5.00%, while the pound eased against the dollar and the euro.
Meanwhile, despite his vows, Polymarket odds of Starmer being gone by year-end are on the rise...
The call for a September leadership election, which would put it around the same time as Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, puts pressure on Starmer’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, to decide whether to challenge his boss for the job before other candidates emerge.
Streeting, who is seen as a standard-bearer for the right of the party, is said to be weighing his options.
Starmer explicitly said he would fight to remain in office if a Labour colleague sparks a leadership contest, vowing: “I’m not going to walk away.”
Asked if he would stand if a race was triggered, he said: “Yes.”
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 09:05