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Rabobank: "More War Seems Inevitable"
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Summit... then 'summit' worse?“TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” was President Trump’s response to Iran’s belated reply to his peace proposal, which they have rejected as a “surrender.” Tehran thinks the US must do so instead: rather than handing over enriched uranium, pledging to never build a nuke, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and dropping ballistic missiles and support for regional terror proxies, Iran wants a permanent US retreat, reparations paid to it, and control of Hormuz.
More war, where the US takes control of the Strait and/or bombs the regime harder to encourage it to sign a deal, seems inevitable if one rules out a 1956-style retreat. Indeed, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave a TV interview to 60 Minutes where he stated the Iran war, while having achieved a lot, is “not over.” Markets are not going to enjoy the prospect of greater and longer disruption to global energy supplies.
However, new fighting may not be seen until the weekend. First, “because markets.” Second, as the US still doesn’t have everything in place it needs militarily to strike harder and for longer. Third, because over May 13-15, Trump will meet Xi in Beijing, where the focus will be on Iran as well as broader US-China relations.
As postulated since the early days of this war, its resolution may run through Beijing. China, like Russia, has influence on Iran via supplies of key military goods. In that regard, some see Trump going to China with Xi holding all the cards (because Iran holds a Strait.) Yet others think a sustained war that pushes global energy markets and the economy past a terrible tipping point might see Beijing offer to lean on Iran rather than supporting it like Russia vs Ukraine.
Naturally, that opens up chatter of a potential ‘Grand Bargain’ around the core interests of China, the US, and Russia (where President Putin presided over a deflated Victory Day parade and said the war with Ukraine may “be coming to an end.”) If you aren’t at this week’s table, you might be on it. In short, the focus should be on this summit and whether it leads to ‘summit’ better or worse for you.
Equally naturally, political dramas around the world mirror those in geopolitics.
Following a local election drubbing and the collapse of two-party politics, the ruling UK Labour Party will see a stalking-horse leadership contest against deeply unpopular PM Starmer. His potential rivals Streeting (in the cabinet), Miliband (in the cabinet and a former unpopular Labour leader himself), Rayner (not in the cabinet due to a tax scandal), and Burns (not in Parliament due to Starmer’s team) must decide if they will make their moves. Starmer is determined to cling on and will give a major speech today seen as determinative for who joins the fray. Financial markets will be worried about populist left policy direction under new leadership, where Labour is losing voters just as fast at it is to the populist right.
In Australia, the by-election in Farrer saw a seat formerly held by the Liberal Party leader taken by the populist right One Nation and the door opened to it joining the Liberal-National opposition coalition, reshaping Australian politics. This is ahead of a Labor Party budget tomorrow already seeing a populist left shift via cash handouts (when inflation is nearly 5%), and taxation of residential property and other assets.
Denmark’s Liberal leader has taken over coalition talks after the Social Democrat premier failed to secure a parliamentary majority. There appear few stable political combos on offer, and questions swirl as to whether the inclusion of the far right will be necessary to achieve one.
Germany’s far right AfD is at 28% in national polls, the most popular party, and 41% in an eastern state where an election will be held in September: add the far left, and populism is >50% of the electorate. There appear few stable German political coalitions that exclude the AfD.
In all these cases, as in the US, the market-friendly center is failing to hold and extremes on the left and right, and via sectarianism, are benefitting most.
Meanwhile, a revolution may be taking place in the geoeconomic sphere. The CLARITY Act working its way through the US Congress as companion to the GENIUS Act that cements stablecoins into the financial system has disallowed USD stablecoins from paying interest; however, it allows the payment of scaled rewards and fees that are their functional equivalent when used in transactions. That might prove pivotal for these much-misunderstood new assets designed to steamroller the global Eurodollar financial architecture.
China is officially banning anything other than its official e-CNY, a CBDC, though Hong Kong is floated as a potential location that could perhaps issue Chinese versions of onshore mainland debt-backed stablecoins similar to those of the US. That could, in theory, propose an alternative payments infrastructure that isn’t hampered by China’s capital controls.
By contrast, the ECB has just stated stablecoins are not an efficient way to strengthen the international role of the euro vs. deeper capital market integration and a stronger safe asset base. That means its alternative to the USD is an EUR that looks more like it, which implies the matching ‘benefits’ of trade deficits, debt, and financialisation over net exports and the industrial production needed for remilitarisation – as the US tries to pivot hard the other way.
Indeed, the US is not only pushing for a $500bn increase in the Pentagon budget but seeing a shake-up of how it operates: bureaucrats will no longer negotiate defence contracts, with an elite private sector “Deal Team Six” to handle and approve negotiations; defence firms will have to build their own factories; those that fail to deliver goods will be held responsible and may be replaced with new contractors; and there will be no more ‘costs-plus’ overspending. “Despite paying companies to make weapons faster, scheduled delays were constant, and cost overruns were the norm, all while their CEOs got rich,” according to Secretary of War Hegseth.
“Because markets,” said shareholders. But perhaps no more. That’s summit else to chew on.
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America's 250th: Here's Where Celebrations Are Taking Place
Authored by Savannah Halsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,
Celebrations across the United States are expected in the coming months as Americans mark the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding.
Americans can find parties, fireworks, sporting events, and opportunities to learn about history in various locations. The events are being hosted by individual states and the federal government, which established a task force for celebrations this year.
Days after his inauguration, President Donald Trump signed an executive order “to provide a grand celebration worthy of the momentous occasion of the 250th anniversary of American Independence on July 4, 2026.”
That order established the Salute to America 250 Task Force, or “Task Force 250,” for “engaging all levels of government, the private sector, non-profit and educational institutions, and every citizen across the country to celebrate this historic milestone.”
WashingtonMany events have been planned in the nation’s capital for the lead-up to the anniversary on July 4—the date the Second Continental Congress approved the Declaration of Independence, which announced the 13 American colonies’ intent to separate from the British monarchy.
Events kicked off on Dec. 31 2025, with videos projected on the Washington Monument to detail the nation’s history—from its discovery as the “New World” to the present day. That ran through Jan. 5 of this year.
On May 17, the National Mall will host a National Prayer event with worship, testimonies, and music. “Streamed to parishes, the event is amplified through coordinated media and a lead-up series with pastors and partners highlighting the Church’s role in history and civic life,” the White House said.
On Memorial Day, May 25, there will be a Spirit of America Parade, honoring service members and their sacrifice.
The White House will also host an Ultimate Fighting Championship event called UFC Freedom 250. That’s scheduled to take place on June 14 on the South Lawn of the White House and feature an “unprecedented mixed martial arts event.” Confirmed fights include Alex Pereira versus Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC heavyweight title, and Ilia Topuria versus Justin Gaethje for the lightweight title.
The Washington Monument is illuminated with a projection of President Donald Trump's "Freedom 250" initiative during the New Year's Eve show at the National Mall in Washington on Dec. 31, 2025. Amid FARAHI/AFP via Getty Images
On July 3, the Official Countdown 250 Ball will take place at the Washington Hilton, about three blocks from the Mall. The black tie event will launch America’s 250th anniversary weekend.
The ball will feature six party zones, four live entertainment stages, premium open bars, the All-American Hero Lifetime Achievement Awards, and a signature midnight countdown to the moment America enters its 250th year.
Starting on June 25 and running through July 10 of this year, a large-scale celebration at the National Mall will feature pavilions for every state and territory, as well as themed exhibits to highlight topics such as arts, innovation, faith, and agriculture in the United States.
The fair will include live performances and traditional fair attractions, as well as interactive exhibits.
More than a million Americans are expected to head to the nation’s capital on July 4 for what the White House calls “one of the grandest displays of patriotism that the world has ever seen.”
The day will feature remarks from Trump and a fireworks display, which the White House is advertising as “the largest pyrotechnics display in the history of the world.” It will also include musical performances and ceremonies honoring both service members and everyday Americans.
North DakotaIn North Dakota, a new presidential library is slated to open in Medora on July 1. The library will feature exhibits on former President Theodore Roosevelt’s life and legacy, as well as galleries and interactive displays.
New YorkOn July 4, New York Harbor will host Sail 4th 250, an international event of tall ships and naval vessels from more than 30 nations. This event will include parades, performances, and public programming.
It will also include a naval review, showcasing U.S. ships’ power and capabilities.
PennsylvaniaThe state of Pennsylvania has positioned itself as a centerpiece of the anniversary in materials about the city’s events, due to Philadelphia’s role in the founding.
The city is considered the birthplace of American independence, because the signing of the Declaration of Independence took place at Independence Hall on July 4, 1776. Additionally, Philadelphia served as the nation’s capital for portions of the Revolutionary era.
According to the city website, “Philly goes bigger than ever in 2026,” touting the largest Independence Day celebration in the nation, which will close out 16 days of festivities with a giant, free-to-attend event on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway. The city expects thousands to head to the City Center for the family-friendly event.
Freedom 250’s Timothy Crawford (L) and Nick Bravo (R ) brought their mobile museum “Freedom Truck” to Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, Florida, on Feb. 23, 2026. Jacob Burg/The Epoch Times
Post-July EventsThroughout 2026, the White House’s Freedom 250 initiative has six mobile museums housed in double-wide tractor-trailers crossing the nation.
The “Freedom Trucks” will travel across all 48 contiguous states with their exhibits, visiting schools, parks, and community events. The goal is to reach millions with the interactive displays on American independence and notable figures from U.S. history.
On Aug. 22–23, Washington will play host to the Freedom 250 Grand Prix, which will be the first Indycar race on a street circuit around the National Mall. The White House called the event a “historic moment in American motorsport, designed specifically to celebrate the 250th anniversary.”
The track map of the upcoming Freedom 250 Grand Prix, in Washington on March 9, 2026. Featuring a 1.7 mile course with seven turns on the National Mall, the Aug. 23 event will celebrate America's 250th birthday. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
In the fall of 2026, the Freedom 250 initiative will launch the Patriot Games—a national competition for high school athletes from every state and territory. The event will pair mentors and students to compete for a $250,000 prize to be split between one male and one female winner.
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Global Fertilizer Shortage Means Spring Planting Season Disaster In The Northern Hemisphere
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Nobody is going to be able to save the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere now, and that is really bad news because according to the UN the number of people in the world experiencing acute hunger was already at an all-time high even before the war began. A historic global food crisis has been escalating for years, and now farmers all over the northern hemisphere either can’t get the nitrogen fertilizer that they desperately need or they are paying much more for it. As a result, global food prices will start rising dramatically once harvest season rolls around, and in many impoverished nations there simply won’t be enough food for everyone.
During normal times, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz, but right now it can’t get out of the Persian Gulf thanks to the Iranians. Unfortunately, if that nitrogen fertilizer doesn’t get into the hands of farmers in the northern hemisphere within a certain period of time they will completely miss the application window…
The Hormuz Strait carries roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade. If farmers miss the application window, no amount of catch-up planting can recover the loss. The International Grains Council estimates cumulative global wheat and coarse grain output could fall 53 million tons below last season, a shortfall larger than Ukraine’s entire annual grain export volume in a typical year.
According to a former co-chair of the White House’s Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, the spring fertilizer application window in the northern hemisphere ends next month…
Spring fertilizer application in the Northern Hemisphere runs through June. Parts of Africa are entering the primary planting season now — a critical window for the continent’s most food-insecure populations. A missed window doesn’t delay a harvest — it eliminates it. The shortfall will be invisible until it materializes in spiking prices and empty shelves next fall.
This is the story the Hormuz blockade coverage is missing. The crisis isn’t just raising energy prices — it is breaking food supply chains. The world is facing a slow-motion catastrophe that will not announce itself until it is too late.
That last sentence is so true.
We really are facing a slow-motion catastrophe.
For example, we are being told that fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs have created a “critical threat” to global rice supplies…
Global rice supplies are facing a critical threat this year as farmers across Asia have been forced to reduce planting due to fertilizer shortages and soaring fuel costs, issues exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war. This situation is compounded by the emerging El Nino effect, which is anticipated to further tighten global rice output.
Rice is central to global food security, and even slight disruptions in supply can have wide-ranging effects. Experts warn that rising prices could pressure household budgets, especially in price-sensitive regions like Asia and Africa.
A lot less rice is going to be grown this year.
Meanwhile, the global population continues to grow.
So who is going to have enough rice to eat?
It won’t be the poor.
The wealthy will buy up whatever is available, and it will be at significantly higher prices.
There are close to 1.6 billion people living in Africa, and we are being warned that they will soon be facing soaring prices and food shortages…
The Iran war could have “dramatic consequences”, causing food shortages and price rises in some of Africa’s poorest and most vulnerable communities, the head of the world’s largest fertiliser company has said.
Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of Yara International, said world leaders needed to guard against soaring prices and shortages of fertiliser causing a de facto global auction that would leave the poorest countries, particularly in Africa, scrambling for supplies they could ill afford.
Here in the United States, food will still be available.
But it will cost a lot more than it once did, because farmers will be forced to pass along much higher costs for fertilizer and fuel…
Farmers have already begun to feel the effects, with rising fertilizer costs and shortages in supply.
The effects of the global conflict are being felt all over Ohio, Bales said. They have taken a large toll on areas such as north central Ohio and western Ohio, where a large amount of row cropping occurs.
“(Between the) double whammy of fertilizer and fuel, that is definitely going to make some tough decisions going forward,” said Bales.
This crisis is going to hit us a lot harder than most people realize.
One recent survey discovered that a whopping 70 percent of all U.S. farmers are unable to afford all the fertilizer that they need this year…
The result is wreaking havoc on farmers. An agricultural lobbying group, the American Farm Bureau Federation, ran a survey and found that 70% of farmers couldn’t afford all the fertilizer they needed.
“Fertilizer pre-booking rates varied significantly by region, with just 19% of Southern producers reporting fertilizer purchases secured ahead of the season, compared to 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West and 67% in the Midwest, reflecting differences in planting decision timelines and exposure to recent price increases,” the AFBF wrote. Farm diesel prices, which fuel the heavy machinery used in the industry (other than small-scale farms that don’t produce the majority of food crops in the country) are up 46% since the end of February, according to the organizations.
We have never been through anything like this.
Some farmers have decided to switch to crops that require less fertilizer, and some farmers have decided not to plant at all this season.
In fact, the number of acres of wheat that U.S. farmers are planting this spring will be the fewest that we have seen “since record keeping began in 1919”.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, and there is no way that is going to happen, it would take weeks for cargo vessels to reach their destinations.
And once the Strait does finally reopen, we are being told that “it could be months before supply chains normalize”…
“Even if the strait reopens, it will take weeks to bring the plants back online and get them running efficiently … it could be months before supply chains normalize,” the United States House Agriculture Committee wrote in a letter to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
At this point, there is no saving the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere.
It is going to be a disaster.
Meanwhile, 60 different nations have implemented emergency energy policies within the past two months…
We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.
But the Iranians are telling us that this is going to be how it is from now on.
They are in full control of the Strait, and it appears that they just attacked yet another cargo ship…
A cargo ship was struck by multiple small craft while sailing near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, UK military officials said.
The ship, which was not immediately identified, was hit right off the coast of Sirik, Iran, just east of the strait, according to the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre.
We are still in the very early stages of this nightmare.
If Iran holds the global economy hostage for an extended period of time, we will see economic chaos that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.
But for now most people in the western world are not taking this crisis seriously enough, because they are convinced that it is just a temporary bump in the road.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Spencer Pratt Surges In L.A. Mayoral Race As Democrats Grow Nervous
Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt, best known for his role on MTV’s The Hills, is gaining traction on online prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as local polling, after a series of viral campaign videos and last week’s mayoral debate.
Pratt’s campaign has released hard-hitting viral ads that have spread across social media like wildfire. His election odds are rising as voters realize that the far-left incumbent, Mayor Karen Bass, and socialist Councilmember Nithya Raman have transformed one of America’s top cities into a cesspool of crime, chaos, drugs, and out-of-control taxes.
The debate last week served as a major inflection point, boosting Pratt’s visibility and positioning him as a more serious contender in the race.
Spencer Pratt is coherent and reasonable.
If he becomes LA’s next mayor he will return that city to safety and greatness.
Please watch the entire debate and judge for yourself. pic.twitter.com/sbicgR7dMm
After last Wednesday's mayoral debate, an online poll from NBC Los Angeles showed that, as of Thursday morning, 88% of voters had picked Pratt, causing alarm within the Democratic Party.
🚨 LA MAYOR POLL: A whopping 88% say that @spencerpratt WON the Mayoral debate last night.
Spencer Pratt: 88%
Karen Bass: 7%
Nithya Rama: 5%
It wasn’t even close. pic.twitter.com/EMUmw9sDDs
So much concern that Bass dropped out of an upcoming mayoral forum:
“The League of Women Voters and the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs regret to announce that Mayor Karen Bass has withdrawn from the televised Los Angeles mayoral forum scheduled for May 13 on FOX 11,” the organizations wrote in a statement posted on Instagram.
The statement continued, “The forum was organized to give Los Angeles voters the opportunity to hear directly from candidates seeking to lead the city through a period of extraordinary challenges.”
Pratt’s campaign has been energized by high-profile donations, including a contribution from Lakers owner Jeanie Buss and support from Joe Rogan. His message is grounded in common sense and data, making it hard to counter with Bass' left-wing talking points, which do not resonate with voters.
Spencer Pratt’s PRICELESS reaction when Nithya Raman dismisses him as a ‘MAGA Republican’ pic.twitter.com/1CEeVTDr4q
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) May 7, 2026Pratt has accused Bass of being a communist...
I’m sorry I am now a broken record but oh my God I did not have Spencer Pratt, exposing Karen Bass’s entire communist, revolution history during the race for mayor in Los Angeles.
I mean the best part about this is everything he’s saying is completely 100% true.
So if you… pic.twitter.com/iyoR93WOFh
Viral ads:
They not like us pic.twitter.com/78hducHDUE
— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) April 29, 2026LA has over 40K drug addicts holding Angelenos hostage. All it takes is one to make moms feel too nervous to let their kids just go be kids and explore the quiet streets of their beautiful neighborhood. ENOUGH. We are done being held hostage in our own homes. Vote PRATT today! pic.twitter.com/9J3QJWvd1u
— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 9, 2026 — Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 8, 2026Both Polymarket and Kalshi show that Pratt's odds of winning the local election are rising, but Bass remains the front-runner:
Pratt accused CBS of election interference...
CBS got the call after fact-checking Karen Bass, so they tried to turn a 1 hour interview with me into a 5 minute hit piece. They need to air the full, unedited interview. pic.twitter.com/ff6UsWZLuA
— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 9, 2026“Will Spencer win enough votes to overcome the usual mass voter fraud by Democrats? His stunning mastery of the facts trounced the talking-point blather of the two hacks,” James Woods asked on X.
Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 22:25