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Wall Street Keeps Testing AI Traders, But Most Are Still Underperforming

Recent trading competitions suggest large language models are still unreliable portfolio managers, according to Bloomberg.

Tests involving models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI have often delivered underwhelming results: many lost money, traded excessively, and made erratic decisions despite receiving identical prompts. In several cases, models appeared unable to stick to coherent strategies for more than a few trading sessions.

Bloomberg writes that one of the clearest examples came from Alpha Arena, a competition created by startup Nof1. Eight models were each given $10,000 and asked to trade U.S. tech stocks over a two-week period using different strategies, including defensive approaches and leveraged bets. Across four competitions, the models collectively lost roughly a third of their capital, and only six of 32 outcomes ended in profit.

The gap in behavior was striking: xAI’s Grok 4.20 made just 158 trades in one contest, while Alibaba Group’s Qwen executed 1,418 under the exact same prompt.

The experiments reflect growing interest in whether generative AI can eventually outperform traditional fund managers. Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase and Balyasny Asset Management already rely on AI for research, fraud detection, and internal analysis, but they have largely stopped short of handing over actual investment decisions. As Nof1 founder Jay Azhang put it, current models still struggle with basics like “position sizing, timing, signal weighting and overtrading.”

That broader pattern has shown up elsewhere too. Research blog Flat Circle tracked 11 public AI trading competitions and found that while every event produced at least one profitable model, only two generated a profitable median return — suggesting most bots still underperform more often than not. Azhang was even more blunt about the state of autonomous trading: giving an LLM money and letting it invest independently “isn’t a thing yet.”

Some firms are still betting that the technology improves with better tools and tighter guardrails. Intelligent Alpha, for example, runs an AI-driven fund that combines LLMs with earnings transcripts, analyst forecasts, corporate filings, macroeconomic indicators, and web searches to make predictions. In late 2025, OpenAI’s ChatGPT correctly predicted the direction of earnings estimate revisions 68% of the time — its strongest showing so far.

Evaluating these systems remains difficult because traditional backtesting methods can be misleading: models may already have embedded knowledge of past market events, creating look-ahead bias. That has pushed more firms toward live-market experiments, where results so far suggest AI may be useful as an assistant — but not a replacement — for human traders.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/09/2026 - 15:45

A government change could tip the scale for millions of "credit invisible" Americans and spur hundreds of billions in new mortgage originations.

Allaire scaled back his responsibilities two years ago.

A possible boat explosion in Miami sent 15 people to the hospital as over 25 fire rescue units were dispatched to the scene.

Have you forgotten that he’s one of a very small group of active golfers who’s one win away from completing the career Grand Slam, one of the rarest accomplishments in the sport?

A father and his two sons on a trip to Los Angeles for a Pokémon Go tournament nearly met a harrowing end on Friday's cursed Frontier flight, which saw a man shredded in their plane's engine.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still playing a critical role in Iran's war strategy despite reportedly having been badly disfigured during the early days of the war, according to US intelligence.

Draymond Green wants to clear the air. The Warriors veteran and occasional “Inside the NBA” analyst received widespread backlash after taking aim at Charles Barkley’s Rockets tenure earlier this week. And while many interpreted Green’s remarks as a dig at Barkley’s final years in the NBA, the Golden State forward is claiming he didn’t mean...

Flour Bakery in Boston is searching for its lost mascot Swirly -- a giant plastic soft-serve vanilla ice cream cone that has been missing since the fall.

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The celebrity hairstylist had previously said the most he ever charged was $100K.

The celebrity hairstylist had previously said the most he ever charged was $100K.

When Austin Reaves played poorly in Game 1 of the Lakers’ second-round playoff series against the Thunder, he fell under crushing pressure.  Despite playing All-Star-caliber basketball for much of the season, new narratives were churning out of journalists’ pens and pundits’ mouths threatening to redefine him.  He can’t meet the moment. He falls apart during...

There may be a happy ending after all.

A crazed ex-fireman allegedly launched into a violent rampage after his ex-girlfriend dumped him -- and was "ready for war" when he drove eight hours intending to kill her family, according to prosecutors.

Trump Says He's Not Replacing FDA Chief Makary

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on May 8 that he has no plans to replace Marty Makary as commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

When asked by reporters outside the White House about Makary, Trump responded: “Nothing much, he’s doing fine,” without elaborating further.

Trump said he had seen reports suggesting the administration was planning to remove Makary from his role leading the FDA, but added that he knows “nothing about it.”

The president also rejected the notion that he would hire someone new to replace Makary.

Amid the media speculation, White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to multiple news outlets that Trump “has assembled the most experienced and talented administration in history.”

Several media outlets, citing unnamed sources, on May 8 stated that the president intends to remove Makary after controversies surrounding abortion drug mifepristone.

A federal appeals court on May 1 blocked the mailing of mifepristone until the FDA can ensure the abortion drug is “safe and effective” for use in the United States. The Supreme Court later put the ruling on hold after pill maker Danco Laboratories requested an emergency stay.

Mifepristone has long been available to women after consulting with doctors. In 2023, federal authorities enabled access via mail and at pharmacies.

In its May 1 ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit said mifepristone could not be shipped because the FDA “conceded it had failed to adequately study whether remotely prescribing mifepristone is safe.”

Susan B. Anthony (SBA) Pro-Life America had previously called for Makary’s removal, accusing him of being indifferent toward calls for stricter regulations on abortion drugs.

“FDA Commissioner Makary should be fired immediately. Indifference is completely unacceptable to millions of pro-life voters expecting the administration to act to save lives,” SBA Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser said in a May 4 statement.

“More than 90,000 abortions occur each year just in states that protect babies in the law throughout all nine months of pregnancy—a direct result of Biden’s COVID-era mail-order abortion drug rule, which the Trump administration inexplicably allows to continue.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ​which oversees the FDA, for comment.

Meanwhile, Dr. Vinay Prasad, the top vaccine official at the FDA, left the agency for a second time on April 30. Prasad served as head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) before resigning from the role in July 2025. He subsequently rejoined the agency two weeks later at the FDA’s request.

Katherine Szarama, who had been CBER’s deputy director, has been elevated to acting director of the center following Prasad’s departure, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/09/2026 - 15:10

The mountain bongo has become the ghost of the forest, hard to spot amid the dense shrubs due to its ability to camouflage.

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