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Yellowstone” star Kelly Reilly teased the idea of a crossover between her spinoff show, “Dutton Ranch” and her onscreen brother’s spinoff, “Marshals.” 

CIA Leak: Iran Can Survive Blockade Another 3 to 4 Months, Maybe Longer

Belying the Trump administration's claims that a US blockade on Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz has the country on the ropes and its oil infrastructure in near-term peril, a confidential CIA analysis says Iran can persevere another three or four months, if not longer. In a second stark contradiction of White House narratives, US intelligence assesses that the bulk of Iran's pre-war missile inventory is still intact. The substance of the CIA analysis was first reported by the Washington Post, which attributed the insights to three current officials and one former one who've seen it. 

Over recent weeks, a particular narrative about the blockade has been gaining traction -- namely, that Iran's inability to freely export oil is putting its energy infrastructure in imminent danger of "shut-in" damage that would commence after Iran's capacity to store oil ran out. We were among the earliest to start focusing on that critical dimension of the conflict, and the shut-in-crisis scenario gained credibility on Wednesday when an oil-sector expert who serves on Iran's Chamber of Commerce candidly told the New York Times that "the sea blockade is a much more serious threat than even war, and the current stalemate must be broken because the export of our oil and energy and the fate of our refineries is now at risk.”

The “Team B” counterpoint here is whatever the FDD/Israel lobby says (“just a few more blockade days + a few more bombing sorties and the defeated regime is over”), and though they’re always wrong, presidents have a funny habit of going for the best-massaged Team B intelligence https://t.co/3OqU81ydK0

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) May 7, 2026

However, the officials who are familiar with the new CIA analysis told the Post that Iran is using various avenues to maximize storage and forestall shut-in damage, from storing oil on empty tankers to reducing the flow from wells. Summing up the oil infrastructure risks and broader economic impacts, one of them said, "It’s nowhere near as dire as some have claimed." One of the officials said the CIA estimate of three or four months of runway may even be underselling Iran's endurance, pointing to the potential for increasing exports via overland routes. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” said an official. 

Meanwhile, the CIA has concluded that Iran's military is in far better shape than what Trump, Defense secretary Pete Hegseth and others have told the American people. On Wednesday, Trump claimed that Iran's missile inventory was a small shadow of what it was before the country was attacked by Israel and the United States:

Trump on Iran:

Their missiles are mostly decimated. They have probably 18–19% left, not a lot in comparison to what they had. pic.twitter.com/9r9W5iVd8o

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 6, 2026

The confidential CIA analysis, however, allegedly paints an entirely different picture: 

Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began. -- Washington Post

Iran is likely in even better shape where drones are concerned, given their lower cost and the ease with which they can be assembled in small facilities. That points to Iran's ability to continue thwarting commerce out of the Persian Gulf. “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance" for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz,  Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, told the Post.  

Some observers view this and other leaks as an attempt by Trump administration subordinates to steer America away from re-escalation of a war initiated by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. "The latest leak from US military and intelligence institutions rebuts the Fox News crowd and shows an American military and intelligence establishment desperate to prevent an American return to war against Iran," wrote Matthew Hoh, a senior fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network, an organization comprising former military service members, intelligence community alumni and diplomats. "I have never seen such a deliberate and coordinated effort by CIA, Pentagon and others to keep the US out of war in defiance of their political bosses."

To say that Trump underestimated Iran is an understatement. The Israelis sold him - and he ended up believing - a narrative that portrayed Iran as so weak that the war would be won within 4 days.

60 plus days later, Trump is still stuck in the mess Israel sold him. pic.twitter.com/gv4cLbtxBC

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) May 6, 2026

Asked for comment on the officials' leaks, a White House spokeswoman reiterated the administration's triumphalist rhetoric. "During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily. Now, they are being strangled economically," said Anna Kelly. "The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”

Alongside the question of how long Iran can endure the status quo, the same question must be asked about not only the United States, but -- staring down a years-long economic catastrophe -- the entire world. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 11:40

Three people have died following the outbreak on ​the MV Hondius.

An astronaut aboard the Gemini VII mission reported seeing a "bogey" unidentified object that looked like the "path of a vehicle" trailing through space more than 60 years ago.

Legendary Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin recalled several “unusual” phenomena he and the crew encountered during the first moon-landing mission, according to a trove of UFO-related documents released Friday. Aldrin, the second person to walk on the moon, explained three specific oddities he saw during a technical crew debriefing a week after they’d safely splashed...

Cost Of California's High-Speed Rail Goes Up Again

Authored by Kerry Johnson via  Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy,

It was supposed to cost $33 billion when voters approved the train in 2008. It will now cost at least $126 billion.

It was also supposed to be carrying 65.5 million to 96.5 million intercity riders a year by 2030. Yet now 2040 is the date for “full service to start.” Skeptics don’t believe we’ll ever see the train run with paying customers aboard.

“In my judgment, the Draft 2026 Business Plan describes a project that has reached a dead end,” says Louis S. Thompson, a 15-year member of the California High Speed Rail Peer Review Group that was established by legislation.

In a letter to lawmakers, Thompson, who was also on the team that created Amtrak, said that after so many changes in the project—cost, design revisions, longer estimated trip times—it’s “not, not even remotely, the system the voters approved in Proposition 1A” in 2008.

Early last year, Gov. Gavin Newsom, that “Steel Driving Man,” promised there soon would be some visible manifestation of the train’s “progress.”

A few months later, HSRA CEO Ian Choudri promised, “We are going to be laying high speed tracks next year.”

The HSRA “expects to achieve several other procurement milestones in 2026,” but not track laying and there is no hard deadline for it to begin to be found in the plan. There is only a three-and-a-half-year timeline, which starts in July for the “Track & Systems Design & Construction” of the first section in the Central Valley.

In other words, the HSRA has provided itself cover should it fall short of its 2026 promise.

California’s perpetually unfolding mess has caught the attention of the editorial board of a newspaper one state over after a recent “60 Minutes” report “shined the spotlight on what has become the most embarrassing and costly government infrastructure boondoggle in US history.”

“Has there ever been a greater fraud perpetrated on the taxpayers than California’s high-speed rail travesty?” asked the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

“Where are the folks at ‘American Greed’ when you need them?”

That is, of course, a reference to the CNBC documentary series “American Greed: Scams, Scoundrels and Scandals.”

It won’t happen, but it would be fitting, if the HSRA borrowed the program’s name for the subtitle of its 2027 business plan, which this year is shamelessly being called “Transforming California’s Future.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 11:20

It’s that time. The WNBA is back. The Liberty open their 30th season Friday at home against the Connecticut Sun with a renewed hunger to win a title. They not only brought back their core trio of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, who won a championship together two years ago, but they also...

"I kept my mouth shut when I needed to, but I also kept it very open when I needed to," she teased.

Wrap yourself in cozy softness with a Lavisha cashmere blend shawl

This Hollywood restaurant, home to mouth-watering burgers, blames Los Angeles' city leaders for shuttering its doors this week.

The "Jennifer Hudson Show" host co-parents the 16-year-old with her ex-fiancé, David Otunga, whom she split from in 2017.

The "Jennifer Hudson Show" host co-parents the 16-year-old with her ex-fiancé, David Otunga, whom she split from in 2017.

Nvidia Bets $2.1 Billion On IREN To Expand AI Infrastructure

Nvidia is expanding beyond chip sales and putting more capital directly into the infrastructure needed to power AI. The company said it could invest up to $2.1 billion in IREN through a deal that gives Nvidia the right to buy as many as 30 million shares at $70 each over the next five years, according to Bloomberg. 

The agreement is designed to accelerate the buildout of large-scale AI data centers as demand for computing power continues to surge.

Bloomberg writes that a major focus of the partnership is IREN’s Sweetwater campus in Texas, which currently has plans for 2 gigawatts of capacity. The companies said that footprint could eventually grow to as much as 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-powered infrastructure over time. IREN also signed a separate $3.4 billion AI cloud agreement to acquire and deploy Nvidia’s Blackwell processors. Together, the deals signal that both companies are betting demand for AI computing will continue rising for years.

The partnership plays to each company’s strengths. Nvidia supplies the chips and networking equipment that dominate the AI market, while IREN specializes in securing land, electricity, and physical infrastructure needed to build large data centers. IREN is also expanding outside the U.S., announcing a deal to acquire Spanish data center developer Ingenostrum as it scales globally.

The move fits a broader pattern for Nvidia, which has increasingly invested in companies across the AI ecosystem. It has recently backed OpenAI, Marvell Technology, and Corning, while also funding infrastructure providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius Group. Critics argue these deals are “circular” because Nvidia is investing in companies that later become major buyers of its chips.

Jensen Huang has pushed back on that criticism. Referring to Nvidia’s investment in CoreWeave earlier this year, he said, “It’s a small percentage of the amount of money that they ultimately have to go raise,” and added, “The idea that it is circular is — it’s ridiculous.”

IREN’s own transformation has made it a notable player in the AI infrastructure race. Founded by Australian brothers Daniel Roberts and Will Roberts, the company originally focused on Bitcoin mining before pivoting toward AI computing. Investors have rewarded that shift: the company’s shares climbed 285% last year and are up another 51% in 2026. Microsoft also signed a $9.7 billion agreement with IREN last year to secure AI computing capacity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 11:00

These films and many more are new on VOD this week!

Deposit $20, get $20 with the Polymarket promo code NYPMAX for Knicks vs. 76ers.

Caroline might be the fiercest member of the Rojas family.

'Sporadic Clashes' In Strait Of Hormuz After US Attacks & Disables Two Iran Vessels Trying To Breach Blockade Summary

• Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, few details given.

• Two more empty Iranian-flagged tankers come under US aerial attack for attempting to breach blockade.

• Iran says US violated ceasefire after last night's US action, which resulted in Iranian military deaths & injures. However, Tehran still reviewing US peace proposal.

• Tasnim news agency: Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of "attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation."

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Yes 74% · No 27%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Ongoing Sporadic Clashes in Strait: Iran Media

Iran's Fars reports late morning (US time): Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Amid the fog of war, nothing in the way of details initially emerged. 

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has condemned US "aggression and adventurism" but has also confirmed that Tehran is still reviewing the US proposal and is still going to respond soon. Al Jazeera cites state media on emerging deaths from the Iranian side:

Mohammad Radmehr, governor of Minab County in southern Iran, says he has received word that rescuers have found the body of one of five sailors reported missing after a US attack on an Iranian vessel overnight in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted Radmehr as saying that search teams are continuing efforts to find the four remaining missing sailors. Earlier, as we reported, Radmehr said 10 sailors were also injured during the naval confrontation.

Details of Fresh US Airstrikes on Tankers

The Wall Street Journal has details (based on CENTCOM press release) after two Iranian-flagged tankers came under US attack for attempting to breach the US blockade:

U.S. military forces carried out airstrikes on Friday, hitting and disabling two empty Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to circumvent the American naval blockade against Iranian ports, according to U.S. Central Command

The vessels struck were very large crude carriers attempting to return to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman, the M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, according to a statement from Centcom.

A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet jet fighter from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush fired precision munitions into their smokestacks, disabling the tankers, Centcom said.

It marks third time the US has attacked commercial vessels for trying to break through to Iranian ports, following a Wednesday incident which saw a US Navy jet destroy rudder of an Iranian tanker under similar circumstances. 

CENTCOM releases fresh footage of the airstrike on the Iranian-flagged M/T Sea Star III:

JUST IN:

US struck and disabled the Iranian oil tanker Sea Star III after it tried to bypass the American naval blockade on Iran.

At the same time Fars news says scattered clashes are continuing in the Strait of Hormuz between Iranian and US forces over the past hours. pic.twitter.com/tQXXExiOfJ

— Current Report (@Currentreport1) May 8, 2026 Iran: Last Night's US Action 'Gross Violation of Ceasefire'

Iran's stance is that the overnight US attacks on coastal sites near Hormuz marks a breach and collapse of the ceasefire, even as President Trump maintains that it was not, only calling it a "love tap". Still, Iran's Foreign Minister has clarified that Iran's response to the US plan to end the war is under review - and so efforts to get back to the table have not been totally abandoned.

The IRGC Navy on Friday is warning vessels to stay away from US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, amid concerns a return to full war could be imminent. Earlier Friday explosions were heard in Iran's Sirik city near the Strait of Hormuz - though the cause has not been given. This as the US military has confirmed additional airstrikes on empty tankers attempting to break the US naval blockade while en route to Iranian ports, per Fox News.

Statement from Iran FM:

Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure. Is it a crude pressure tactic? Or the result of a spoiler once again duping POTUS into another quagmire?

Whatever the causes, outcome is the same: Iranians never bow to pressure. pic.twitter.com/ev7dMIebNB

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) May 8, 2026 Iranian Army Commandos Seize Oil Tanker Over Export Disruption Claims 

The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of "attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation." Tasnim did not elaborate on the seizure, but Iran's official state news agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), stated that the Iranian military directed the tanker to Iran's southern coast. The report noted that the tanker was carrying Iranian crude oil.

"Army commandos seized this violating oil tanker carrying a cargo of the Islamic Republic of Iran's oil, which was trying to harm and disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation by exploiting regional conditions," IRNA stated. Earlier, US forces struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites and other military assets after CENTCOM reported that Iranian forces launched a missile and a one-way attack drone barrage at three US warships transiting the Homruz chokepoint. No US warships were hit.

Press TV reported overnight that Tehran said US forces targeted two of its oil tankers in the Hormuz area. The outlet also said the US hit civilian areas along its southern coast and on Qeshm Island "with the cooperation of some regional countries." The United Arab Emirates, which has been hit hard by Iran's retaliatory strikes, said earlier that its air defenses were intercepting missiles and drones targeting the country.

Iran’s Army Navy published footage showing the seizeing of a violating tanker ‘Ocean Koi’ last night.

The Navy commandos of Iranian Army, during a special operation, seized & boarded the violating tanker ‘OCEAN KOI,’ which attempted to “disrupt oil exports”. pic.twitter.com/I5ZdUjrXL9

— Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) May 8, 2026

President Trump stated overnight that the month-long ceasefire remains in effect, but warned Tehran that future airstrikes would be harder and more violent if it does not quickly accept a peace deal to end the war and reopen the Hormuz chokepoint.

Polymarket:

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 28% · No 73%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Overnight geopolitical wrap:

• US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor - Trump Says Warships Came Under Fire By 'Lunatics'

UBS analyst Dominic Ellis provided a summary of the UBS Energy Research team's call with Amena Bakr, head of Kpler's Middle East and OPEC+ Research, about the UAE and OPEC:

While the UAE's exit from OPEC erodes the group's ability to control the oil price in the longer term (UAE is around 30% of spare capacity), there is limited risk of the group splintering, according to an expert speaking to UBS. The speaker said the Iran conflict is likely to lead to significant investment in new pipeline (and perhaps export) capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but it will take 2-3 years at least for meaningful developments. The ability to return production to pre-war levels varies significantly: Saudi Arabia and the UAE can get there within weeks, but Iraq and Kuwait might take up to 6 months given the less orderly shutdown processes they were forced into by the conflict. The speaker estimates that the UAE has capacity close to 5mb/d, versus the current 2.1mb/d, but will likely ramp up only gradually to avoid a price war with Saudi.

In markets, Brent crude futures are trading around $100 a barrel, while WTI futures are trading around $94 a barrel.

More Regional Developments

via Newsquawk...

Reports surrounding a potential deal:

• Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is expected to formally respond on Friday, according to CCTV citing Pakistani sources.
• Any agreement with Iran would be bad for Israel, even if it includes an agreement to eliminate enriched uranium, Israeli press reported citing an official.
• Iran and the US are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal, NYT reported. Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. The talks over a short-term agreement are continuing, the officials said, with negotiators trading proposals over how to describe the framework for a potential permanent deal. The three Iranian officials said a key obstacle was the US demand for commitments in advance on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
• "A diplomatic source told Al Arabiya: Ensuring the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.", Al Arabiya reports.

Commentary following the US-Iran strikes:

• Iran's Top Joint Military Command said US violated the ceasefire by targeting Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz; Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack.
• US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians; Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations. On energy, said we do not need to export curbs on oil and fuel.
• US President Trump posted that there was no damage done to the three US destroyers that came under fire; states that Iran is led by lunatics and that the US will knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
• US President Trump tells ABC that the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a 'love tap' and the ceasefire continues to be in effect.
• US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes on Iranian military facilities; Iranian attacks were unprovoked but no US assets were hit; do not seek escalation.
• The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
• Saudi Arabia has not permitted the use of its airspace to support offensive military operations, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
• There is a high state of alert in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah following the assassination of the Radwan Force Commander, Israeli Channel 12 reported citing sources.
• Saudi Arabia has imposed restrictions on some aspects of US activity related to military operations in the region due to fears of possible Iranian attacks without direct US support or response, ISNA reported citing a i24 sources report.

Reports of overnight strikes:

• "US military attacked Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, an American official told me. The American official claimed that the attacks do not constitute a renewal of the war with Iran", Axios' Ravid posted.
• A massive fire at the site of Iran's attacks last night; large fire previously detected in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam province, has moved; another big fire has been detected 30km west of Lark Island, Tasnim reported.
• UAE announces that air defense systems are responding to a missile threat.
• Hearing explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ISNA reported.
• Reactivation of air defense in western areas of Tehran, Mehr News reported.
• Several explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, IRIB News reported.
• Explosion was heard in Abu Dhabi, Fars News reported citing Arab sources.
• Three American destroyers were attacked by the Iranian Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim sources say.
• An explosion was heard in Minab, SNN reported.
• Further explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Mehr news reported.
• Air defenses have been activated in West Tehran, Mehr News reported.
• Air defenses shot down two hostile drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, Mehr News reported.
• Explosions heard in Qeshm due to the confrontation of defences with small birds, ISNA reported.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 11:00

The Star Wars collectable, featuring the hero of the original sci-fi franchise, more than doubled a previous record for such an item.

Colbert is getting a proper sendoff before the show goes off the air for good. 

The Apollo 17 lunar crew once reported seeing unidentified strange bright sparks in space that looked like the "Fourth of July," according to newly released UFO files released by the Pentagon on Friday.