The last 48 hours have seen massive, devastating Russian missile and drone attacks on the Ukrainian capital and other cities, which left at 18 dead and over 100 injured. Russia said this was in response to the Starobelsk dormitory attack of last month and other drone attacks targeting Russian territory.
But Ukrainian forces have upped the ante once again, this time with a mass casualty event in Russian-control Donetsk region. "A Ukrainian drone strike killed seven people and wounded 11 others in the occupied Donetsk region after crashing into a passenger bus, Kremlin-installed authorities said Wednesday morning, as overnight attacks killed at least two people in Russia," The Moscow Times reports. State media later revised the death toll up to eight killed.
Widely circulated social media image of bus after drone attack in Donetsk.The strike happened in the town of Yenakiieve, while the group was being bussed to Simferopol in Crimea, all the way from Moscow on a long-distance route.
"According to preliminary reports, seven civilians were killed," Denis Pushilin, the Kremlin-installed head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), wrote on Telegram. "At least eight people have been killed and 11 others wounded," RT later cited him as indicating.
"The Ukrainian fascists have committed another act of unprecedented, inhumane aggression," Pushilin additionally said. The bus itself was subsequently shown to be utterly destroyed and left as a burned, charred shell.
Perhaps seeking to preempt possible Ukrainian explanations of the bus attack being 'unintentional' - officials have insisted it could not have been an accident:
Russia’s human rights commissioner, Yana Lantratova, asserted that the attack was “not a tragic accident” but rather a “vile, deliberate, and inhumane crime” against non-combatants.
“There are no military objectives that could justify the bloodshed of civilians. There are no arguments that can absolve those who issue and execute such criminal orders from responsibility,” she stressed.
This could invite even greater airstrikes on Kiev, after it has already been hit hard in the latest attacks.
Russian embassies and foreign ministry-connected channels have circulated footage of the attack aftermath:
⚡️ Russian MFA Spox #Zakharova:
The Kiev regime has once again exposed its inhuman Nazi nature by attacking a passenger bus in the DPR, killing 7 civilians.
❗️ We call on all responsible governments & international organizations to condemn this crime.https://t.co/kxslpuGu4Q pic.twitter.com/QacSn2lft5
President Putin and top military brass had last month said strikes would be initiated against "decision-making centers" in response to the dorm attack in the Russia’s Lugansk People’s Republic on May 22, which killed 21 people - mostly teenage girls - and injured 70 others.
Kremlin officials now say that Russian forces have "a right to dismantle any infrastructure that supports terrorism." This new bus attack strongly suggests there's no off-ramp or de-escalation on the horizon, but that tit-for-tat strikes will only grow and become more violent.
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 10:55Brent crude prices are rising back toward $100 per barrel this morning following the latest flare-up in fighting to threaten the U.S.-Iran ceasefire
Prices rose after the U.S. military said Iran fired missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain, which failed to hit their targets.
The United States said it then struck an Iranian military ground control station on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.
API:
Crude: -6.8MM
Cushing: -279k
Gasoline: +3.5M
Distillate: -214k
DOE:
Crude: -7.97mm - biggest draw since Feb
Cushing: -583k
Gasoline: +3.36mm - biggest build since Jan
Distillate: +1.50mm
US crude stocks fell for the sixth straight week with Cushing inventories testing tank bottoms once again. The week saw an unexpected jump in product inventories with Gasoline's biggest build since January...
Source: Bloomberg
Today's rise in gasoline stocks lifts them off their lowest level for this time of year since 2014...
Source: Bloomberg
Cushing 'tank bottoms' are in sight once again...
Source: Bloomberg
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another huge drawdown this week (down 58mm barrels since the start of the war)...
Source: Bloomberg
Rig counts are on the rise as US crude production drifts back towards record highs...
Source: Bloomberg
US crude and product exports jumped back towards record highs...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI was trading around $95 ahead of the official data...
Finally, economists at Macquarie wrote in a note this morning that crude oil’s muted reaction to the closure of Hormuz has mainly been a function of the oversupply seen before the war, .
The analysts suggested that “the market will be ok for another month or two, especially given commercial crude stocks have been cushioned by SPR/product draws."
However, if the Strait remains closed at the end of the northern summer (Labor Day is Sept. 7), physical availability will tighten materially.
“If the Strait reopens soon, we expect prices to fall sharply. However, with stocks drawing rapidly, if the Strait remains closed, at some point prices will need to move much higher.”
'Tank Bottoms' are in sight around the world.
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 10:39By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
In a tense Congressional Hearing before the foreign relations committee, Marco Rubio defended the Trump Administration’s war in Iran, praising the success of US military operations destroying Iranian military and nuclear facilities. He also said that a deal with Iran could happen “today, tomorrow, or next week.” However, the recent military escalations between the US and Iran, the refusal of Israel and Hezbollah to cooperate, and reports of Pezeshkian’s resignation — leaving Iran in the hands of the IRGC — mean that a deal seems to lie more on the horizon of next month, next quarter, or maybe even next year.
Our base case that we see passage through the Strait disrupted for at least three more months still stands as we have yet to see any tangible headlines to suggest an accelerated timeline. The negotiations currently lie in Iran’s hands, as Bloomberg reports Iran’s Mehr news saying that “officials in Tehran are discussing their ‘final text’ to send to the US.” One might be hesitant to truly deem this text as “final” (if it even exists), as it may be more of a “final_v3.doc”, or a “final_FINAL_v6.doc”, or even a “final_FINAL_totallyforrealthistime.doc”.
The most promising resolution right now is that the IRGC remains in power, but enriched uranium is handed over to an executor, like China, though we have yet to see any confirmed updates that this is a feasible solution that Iran would actually agree to at this juncture. The extended 60-day ceasefire is still ongoing, while both the US and Iran are dedicated to keeping the Strait closed and exchanging fire. CENTCOM posted on X today to show off the USS Abraham Lincoln enforcing the US blockade, which has apparently redirected 122 vessels to “ensure compliance.”
Yesterday, Trump slammed Vulcan’s Hammer on the AI industry, signing an executive order, “Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security.” The executive order lauds how the administration has “unleashed tremendous technological growth and economic investment in AI by slashing the bureaucratic constraints that the prior administration placed on America’s AI developers and researchers, and by instead encouraging AI innovation and accelerating responsible AI adoption across government and industry.”
Part of the executive order is intended to support the AI industry, seeking to utilize AI in federal cybersecurity programs, and utilize AI models (potentially Mythos?) to pinpoint vulnerabilities. However, the order also seeks to impose new restrictions, likely in response to the emergency meeting triggered by Mythos a few months ago. This includes lots of classified processes and frameworks to make sure that an evil AI model, the likes of that in a Philip K. Dick novel, doesn’t usurp the American government as the presiding force leading the world’s global hegemon (or more likely, making sure these models can’t be used to hack into sensitive government websites). The process is referred to as a “voluntary framework” so that AI developers can submit their new models to the government 30 days before release to the public. Though the order also clarifies that “nothing in this section shall be construed to authorize the creation of a mandatory governmental licensing, preclearance, or permitting requirement for the development, publication, release, or distribution of new AI models, including frontier models.”
While innovation in the US is so hot that the government is now pulling in the reins a bit, officials in Canada are turning a blind eye to sluggish growth. Last week it was announced that Canadian GDP shrunk by 0.1% in Q1 of 2026, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction and signalling a technical recession. Worse yet, the Q1 GDP estimate missed expectations of seeing growth at 1.5%, suggesting that the health of the Canadian economy has been overestimated by economists for the past few months.
Prime Minister Carney partially attributed the contraction to “uneven data” as the Canadian government “has been in the process of laying the foundations for a stronger, more resilient, more independent Canadian economy.” But at the same time, this comes less than a week after Carney celebrated close US-Canadian economic ties when speaking to the Economic Club of New York, saying that “Canada Strong will help make America great again.”
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Carolyn Rogers, has also brushed off the technical recession, saying that we need to “look past technical recession indicators” in favor of more leading economic indicators. But for some, the technical recession is a flashing red light, screaming that the current trade situation with the US is unsustainable and it’s time to sit down at the negotiating table.
Canadian trade minister LeBlanc sat with USTR representative Greer yesterday in Washington to discuss the USMCA. Prior to their sitdown, LeBlanc sent a letter to both Greer, and Mexico’s economy secretary Ebrard, asking to see the USMCA renewed for another sixteen years, as the USMCA review is currently underway. While the likelihood of the USMCA being renewed in its current form is slim to none—which LeBlanc is likely painfully aware of—he highlighted that conversations pertaining to the sectoral tariffs (Section 232 hitting steel, aluminum, automobiles, etc.) will be “essential.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 10:20