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US Services Surveys Signal Surging Prices, Mixed Growth

Following the dramatically better than expected rise in US Manufacturing PMI surveys, analysts expected stability in the Services side of the economy in May.

They were somewhat correct but the message was mixed with one survey improving while the other deteriorated...

• S&P Global US Services PMI dropped from 51.0 (April) to 50.9 (flash May) to 50.7 (final May) - dropping back towards March lows.

• ISM US Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 54.5 (better than 53.8 exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, both surveys signaled rising prices with employment weaker and a mixed picture for orders (ISM higher, S&P lower)...

Source: Bloomberg

"While the US manufacturing economy is reporting a surge in demand as war-related supply and price worries drive precautionary stock building, it’s a different story in the service sector," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Demand for services has been largely stalled over the past three months, losing the strength seen earlier in the year."

The sluggish services economy is acting as drag on overall economic growth, which the PMI data signal to be running at a modest annualized pace of just above 1% so far in the second quarter...

Williamson notes that consumer-facing service sectors were the hardest hit, where orders are now falling at the steepest pace since the pandemic in 2020, with respondents blaming the decline on a combination of squeezed spending power from energy prices hikes and customers pushing back on higher prices being charged for services.

However, business services are also seeing reduced order book growth compared to earlier in the year and financial services firms are coming under pressure from higher interest rates.

"Rising costs and cooling demand are meanwhile causing service companies to cut staff at the fastest rate seen since the early months of the pandemic," warns Williamson.

This is not a good sign for CPI...

The increase in input cost inflation being signaled by the PMI points to a further rise in consumer price inflation in the coming months, but, Williamson notes that, on the other hand the "weakening of demand growth and downturn in the labor market being indicated could help allay concerns over any inflation spike becoming more entrenched."

Respondents are almost universally worried about energy costs...

But tariff fears are gone?

credittrader Wed, 06/03/2026 - 10:07

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Trump Says He'd Like To Meet Iran's New Supreme Leader: 'We Probably Will'

After US-Israeli strikes assassinated the last longtime Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, President Trump says he would like to meet the new one.

Trump said he "would like to meet" Iran's Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in an interview published Wednesday. In surprising remarks, Trump told the New York Post's Pod Force One: "I would like to meet him, and we probably will meet at some point, depending on how it all works out."

AFP via Getty Images

Trump reasoned that "They've ‌already agreed ‌they're ‌not going to have a ‌nuclear weapon" - suggesting this could be the basis for new direct diplomatic engagement.

And yet the Iranians have already for years consistently stated they were never intent on achieving a nuclear bomb. All recent high level US intelligence community assessments have tended to support the claim that Iran was not seeking a nuke before the attacks of June as well as March into April, under Operation Epic Fury.

But Trump has also dismissed the intelligence, insisting that Iran was 'very close' before the US-Israeli interventions.

While Trump is now expressing openness to meeting the Ayatollah - who is said to be in hiding and only having limited, low-tech communications with his officials, for fear of being tracked by the CIA or Mossad - the Supreme Leader himself has not voiced a desire for such a meeting.

Tehran at this moment doesn't appear in the mood for 'talking' - and has lately said it is ready to let its military retaliation and response do the 'negotiating'.

The US President once again made claims about the text of the possible agreement. He claimed that "Iran has agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons." --Bloomberg

This seems another element of confused messaging from the White House, which has many times denounced the Ayatollah and his regime as 'murderous' and 'evil' and a 'tyrant' - and yet now Trump apparently wants to sit down with him for tea time or something.

Trump in the NY Post interview actually addressed the general atmosphere of confusion and contradictions from his administration, and from him personally.

"It's good if they’re confused, and the Iranians are confused," Trump stated.

He added: "But no, it’s just the way I am. It changes. I could leave here, I could give you an answer, and then in 20 minutes go into the Oval Office and I’ll realize my answer is now incorrect. Facts change and things change quickly."

In this context, he went on to defend the controversial decision to go to war in the first place, saying it could not have been delayed as Iran was on the brink of having a nuclear weapon.

"I couldn’t, I know because this is too important. If I did that, they would have had a nuclear weapon. They would have had a nuclear weapon two weeks after the B-2 bomber struck. So if I did that, they would have had a nuclear weapon."

Trump: "He's missing a lot of different parts."

Trump:

I haven't had the privilege of meeting the Ayatollah.

He is not doing great; he is missing a lot of different parts. pic.twitter.com/8e9ROInZeb

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 3, 2026

He again in the interview called it a necessary "excursion" - saying, "They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon, lots of other good things are going to happen." From the interview, on the question of boots on the ground in Iran...

"You don’t need boots on the ground right now. We wiped out much of their military with just bombing. After three days their military was virtually wiped out. … And then if you read the New York Times you think they’re doing fantastically."

Trump elsewhere addressed the controversial Axios report which said Trump 'steamrolled' Israeli PM Netanyahu in a phone call. Per Bloomberg, "Trump said he swore at Benjamin Netanyahu in a call this week as the president tried to deescalate fighting in Lebanon and keep peace talks with Iran on track."

"I did," Trump said, acknowledging he chastised his ally. "I ‌wouldn’t say angry. I was a little ‌bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with ⁠Lebanon, ⁠you know."

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 10:00

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Step Aside Private Credit: Partners Group Is First Private Equity Fund To Gate Investors

The private credit gating-gate is spilling over to private equity. 

Partners Group Holding AG has capped withdrawals at one of its evergreen private equity funds amid heightened redemption pressure, as the investor anxiety that hit private credit vehicles is now spilling over to other asset classes within private markets, Bloomberg reported.

The Swiss firm, one of Europe’s largest listed alternative asset managers, said its $8.6 billion Global Value SICAV fund was limiting redemptions to 5% of net asset value per quarter after withdrawal requests surged to an estimated 9.8% in the second quarter, according to a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg News.

Amid the surge in redemptions targeting private credit funds, a spokesperson for Partners Group told Bloomberg that there’s been a pick-up in redemption requests from private wealth clients across the firm’s evergreen portfolio. Such clients, who are typically "far more skittish than institutional investors", make up about a fifth of assets under management across its platform and a particularly large proportion of Global Value’s investor base.

Partners Group is one of the pioneers of evergreen funds, which operate indefinitely and typically allow investors to withdraw at least a portion of their investments quarter-by-quarter rather than locking up the capital for a set period. It has more than 30 such funds across five asset classes with more than $56 billion combined AUM, the spokesperson said.

“There are some idiosyncratic factors for this fund in particular, but indeed you do see investors broadly, after having redemption pressure within private credit for a number of quarters, now starting to redeem other asset classes,” Chief Executive Officer David Layton told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. Most of the redemptions in the Global Value fund are coming from Asia and Australia, he said.

Macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical conflicts have strained private markets in the last few years, with industry-wide volatility starting in private credit vehicles spilling over into private equity, Partners Group said in the letter. “These flow dynamics have recently accelerated” and impacted the fund, it added.

Partners Group “believes that redemption limitations are an indispensable feature of private markets investing to protect long-term investors in an inherently illiquid asset class,” it said in the letter. “Acting in the best interests of all investors in an evergreen fund means balancing the needs of those seeking liquidity while preserving investment capital for long-term investors who want to capitalize on market opportunities.”

In April, the company said it saw “positive fundraising momentum” for its private markets strategies in the first quarter, as it sought to distance itself from mounting concerns over the health of the private credit market.

The gating by Partners Group comes despite the fund’s liquidity standing at around 15% of net asset value. “In addition, the fund has access to an undrawn credit facility equal to 15% of the fund’s size,” the letter said.

Shares of the asset manager, which oversees about $185 billion across private equity, credit, real estate, infrastructure and royalties, tumbled as much as 18.2% in Zurich trading on Wednesday, the biggest intraday loss on record. They are down about 30% for the year. Shares in EQT AB and CVC Capital Partners Plc, two firms that are also know for such strategies, both fell more than 5%. 

The redemptions are the latest challenge confronting Partners Group, which a few weeks ago denied allegations of systematic asset over-valuation made in a report by short-seller Grizzly Research. 

Private credit funds have largely been in focus in recent months, suffering large outflows amid broader worries over debt quality and also rising concerns that many are overly exposed to software companies facing the risk of being upended by artificial intelligence. With investors scrambling to yank billions of dollars from such funds, some of the biggest money managers that have capped redemptions recently include Apollo Global Management Inc., KKR & Co., BlackRock Inc. and Blue Owl Capital Inc. Last night, we reported that Cliffwater was the first fund to report 2nd quarter redemption requests, which surged to 17%, up from 14% in Q1. The company imposed a 5% gate for the second consecutive quarter.

“The disease is spreading across private markets asset classes,” said Pierre-Yves Gauthier, CEO and head of strategy at AlphaValue. “There is presumably a case to trim earnings expectations on contracting AUMs.”

The 19-year-old Partners Group - which last enacted some liquidity restrictions during the pandemic - remains open to subscriptions and distributions for the full year are expected at 15%, one percentage point less than in 2025, the firm said.

In April, Grizzly Research targeted Partners Group saying it was shorting the stock, citing alleged valuation inconsistencies in evergreen funds, where it estimated as much as 40% of investments may be significantly mis-marked. Grizzly said it had identified discrepancies between reported valuations and underlying performance. In response, Partners Group, based near Zug, Switzerland, has said valuations are validated by third parties and broadly termed Grizzly’s claims as “frivolous, defamatory and highly misleading.” 

Layton said the short-seller report “certainly doesn’t help,” but it was hard to tell how much of a role it has played. “We don’t think it is significant but certainly it is one of the factors that’s leading to increased redemption pressure in this fund in particular,” he told BTV. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 09:20

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