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Commodity Markets Are Living On Borrowed Time
Authored by Helen Thomas via City AM,
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Governments and industry have softened the impact of energy and commodity supply disruptions by releasing reserves, reducing inventories, and increasing operational flexibility.
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These measures are temporary, and continued inventory drawdowns are pushing oil and metal markets toward historically tight conditions.
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Once inventories become critically low, higher prices may become the primary mechanism for balancing supply and demand, leading to weaker economic growth and lower consumption.
Commodity markets have spent the past three months performing an extraordinary balancing act. Despite one of the most significant disruptions to global energy flows in decades, the global economy has continued to function remarkably smoothly. After an initial spike, prices for several key commodities have stabilised or even eased. Yet this apparent calm is deceptive. The reason the system has held together is due to governments, producers and consumers drawing down the buffers that normally protect the global economy from disruption. Those buffers are now approaching dangerous limits.
Inventories are being depleted at a remarkable pace. Global oil stockpiles have fallen to levels that senior industry executives describe as unprecedented. Aluminium markets are facing a similar squeeze. Bloomberg recently calculated that combined stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange, CME Group and the Shanghai Futures Exchange would cover less than five days of global supply.
The surprising resilience of commodity prices reflects the fact that the global economy has proved far more adaptable than many expected. Strategic reserves have been deployed on a large scale. The United States and Japan have both released oil from emergency stockpiles to cushion the loss of supply. American jet fuel output has reached record levels. Even China has managed to reduce crude imports without any obvious drawdown of its strategic petroleum reserves, which a recent report from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies suggests is due to changing refinery yields and industrial flexibility. In effect, China has been extracting greater flexibility from its industrial system rather than relying solely on inventory releases.
All of these developments demonstrate a market responding exactly as economic theory would predict. When a critical input becomes scarce, producers seek substitutes, inventories are drawn down and existing capacity is pushed harder. These adjustments can be remarkably effective. They buy time. But time is ultimately what inventories represent. Every barrel released from a reserve, every tonne withdrawn from a warehouse, and every industrial workaround implemented today simply postpones the moment when supply and demand must once again be reconciled.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a case in point. The United States entered this crisis from a significantly weaker position than prior energy shocks. Having peaked at more than 700 million barrels in 2010, the SPR had already been reduced by roughly a third before the disruption in the Middle East began. Recent releases have helped stabilise markets, but they have done so by consuming the very buffer that exists to absorb future shocks. The critical question is not whether the SPR can technically be depleted. It cannot. The more important question is whether markets begin to doubt that policymakers possess sufficient reserves to continue cushioning disruptions indefinitely. Once that confidence disappears, the existence of barrels underground becomes less important than the perception that the shock absorbers are running out.
At some point, the arithmetic becomes unavoidable. The world cannot permanently consume more commodities than it produces. Strategic reserves can only be released once. Inventories can only be drawn down once. Refineries can only be reconfigured so far. Eventually, the familiar supply-and-demand framework begins to reassert itself, and a new equilibrium must emerge between available supply and desired consumption.
Demand destructionEconomists have a sanitised term for this process: demand destruction. The reality is more painful. Demand destruction occurs when prices rise to a level that forces consumers and businesses to reduce their consumption. Households spend more on fuel and less on everything else. Airlines reduce routes. Manufacturers delay investment. Energy-intensive industries curtail production. Consumption falls not because people choose to consume less but because higher prices leave them no alternative.
This is why inventory levels matter so much. As long as stockpiles remain available, markets can postpone the adjustment. Once they are exhausted, prices become the primary mechanism through which balance is restored. Neil Chapman, senior vice-president at ExxonMobil, recently described the situation with unusual candour. Oil prices, he argued, have remained relatively contained because inventories have been drawn down. Yet those inventories are now approaching levels rarely seen in modern markets. Once those buffers disappear, the economics change rapidly. As Chapman put it, “a model would say Brent will shoot up” towards $150 or even $160 per barrel.
Many governments will inevitably seek to shield consumers from the consequences. Price caps, subsidies and emergency fiscal packages are politically attractive when energy costs surge. Yet such measures do not eliminate the underlying economic loss. They merely redistribute it. If consumers are protected from higher prices, then taxpayers, bondholders or currency holders must absorb the cost instead.
Japan offers an early illustration of this dynamic. The government has proposed additional fiscal support while simultaneously insisting that it will not require higher borrowing over the calendar year. Markets appear sceptical. Yields across the Japanese government bond curve have risen as investors attempt to identify where the cost of these interventions will ultimately fall. The pressure has not disappeared; it has simply been transferred elsewhere within the system.
This is the uncomfortable reality confronting policymakers around the world. There is no financial engineering solution that can replace missing barrels of oil. No accounting adjustment can create aluminium inventories that do not exist. No subsidy can transform a scarce commodity into an abundant one. The shock emanating from the Middle East is real, and while the global economy has responded impressively through substitution, efficiency gains and inventory drawdowns, these measures are temporary expedients rather than permanent solutions.
When inventories become critically low, markets force a new equilibrium. And a new equilibrium in a poorer world means exactly what it sounds like: higher prices, lower consumption and lower living standards. The commodity markets are not forecasting a poorer world. They are enforcing one.
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 06:30
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Iran Sends Missiles, Drones Targeting Airbases Across Gulf After US Nighttime Attack On Qeshm Island
- Two bases come under fresh missile attack in Kuwait, Fars and Reuters report. Iran state media says retaliation for night US attack on Qeshm Island.
- Explosions & air raid sirens also being reported in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain. It seems that war is popping off once again.
- rump insists reports that Iran & US have not been talking for days is 'fake news'; Rubio also tells Congress talks are ongoing, despite fresh Iranian denials, and even claims the nuclear file is part of it.
- Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks, with Trump saying he expects a broader Iran deal "over the next week".
- But Fars denies this Tuesday: "exchange of messages between Iran & the US has been stopped for at least a few days" on MOU.
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War Returns? More Missiles Fired On Kuwait, Sirens & Explosions In KSA, UAEIn the overnight hours local time, Kuwait is reporting inbound missiles and drones, with Fars reporting that two American bases were targeted. Explosions and air raid sirens also being reported in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain. It seems that war is popping off once again.
Per a breaking Reuters report:
Kuwait’s army says that air defenses are intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks and urges the public to follow security and safety instructions issued by the relevant authorities.
Any sounds of explosions heard are the result of interceptions, the army adds.
Tasnim: "Blasts reported at Kuwait's Ali al-Salem US airbase" after three missiles were fired. And the latest from CNN:
Kuwait says it is intercepting enemy missile and drone attacks. While it has not yet identified who it believes is behind the attack, the news comes shortly after Iranian media reported “explosion-like sounds” near Iran’s Qeshm island. Meanwhile, the US military said it “disabled” an oil tanker heading for an Iranian port by striking it with a Hellfire missile.
Unconfirmed emerging footage:
Dashcam footage shows the potential interception of an Iranian ballistic missile or the self-detonation of Patriot surface-to-air missile interceptor earlier over Kuwait, during tonight’s attack by Iran. pic.twitter.com/V184MEncnF
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 2, 2026Sirens have also been activated in Bahrain, for unknown cause. New IRGC statement:
IRGC statement:
- The US attacked Qeshm Island
- In response, Iran has carried out "precise and intensive missile strikes" on US bases in Kuwait
- Further US aggression will be met with a "seismic, crushing, and decisive response" pic.twitter.com/GBaDd9Bthy
In fresh action CENTCOM has announced it has fired on another vessel which was non-compliant to the US blockade:
- CENTCOM SAYS DISABLED NON-COMPLIANT VESSEL IN ARABIAN GULF
- CENTCOM: DISABLED VESSEL W/ HELLFIRE MISSILE TO ENGINE ROOM
President Trump in a fresh Truth Social post has again insisted that Washington and Tehran are talking again. "The conversations between us have been going on continuously... where they lead, one never knows, but as I told Iran, 'It's time, one way or another, for you to make a Deal.'"
Throughout the morning Secretary of State Marco Rubio was fielding questions on Capitol Hill. He too insisted that talks are ongoing, despite a Tuesday Iranian denial. He claimed the regime is 'fragmented' and because of this, back-and-forth messaging is extremely slow-going. "Iranian people would make a deal tomorrow if it were up to them," Rubio said. "The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are a bit more immune to pressures."
He also generally acknowledged that Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and then said this justified the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in turn. There was also this interesting exchange when he echoed Trump's line that the war is actually 'over' at this point...
— You keep telling us how we're winning this war — Senator
— Well, the war IS OVER now — Rubio
— The war IS NOT OVER. We still find ourselves spending billions of dollars a week on war — Senator pic.twitter.com/WuofatTvoQ
Hawks like Ted Cruz want to know of any other regime change tactics going on...
Marco Rubio:
I'm not aware of any program to arm civilians in Iran to overthrow their government.
I mean, there may be other countries doing it, or other groups doing it, but certainly not the U.S. government. pic.twitter.com/tYVeSbWVqE
A potential new nuclear framework regarding Iran was also a central topic to Tuesday's Congressional testimony:
Marco Rubio:
Iran would be like North Korea, but worse, if they got nuclear weapons.
They would destroy the State of Israel, and you wouldn't be able to do anything about it because they have a nuclear weapon. pic.twitter.com/5TDGPNBY1W
Big if true, there is still too much smoke and noise:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that Iran has agreed to discuss previously off-limits aspects of its nuclear program, raising hopes that ongoing negotiations could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader diplomatic breakthrough.
Speaking at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the State Department's budget request, Rubio said: "We are in talks... There is the prospect before us, which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week, that for the first time, certainly in my memory, they have agreed to negotiate aspects of their nuclear program."
He said the U.S. hopes such negotiations could lead to a broader understanding that would include the reopening of the strategic waterway.
"We're hopeful that something like that could happen, in which the straits would reopen, we would enter into a period of negotiations on very specific topics, delineated negotiations, in the hope of reaching an outcome that's acceptable to us and something they would be able to do as well," he said.
The above was spoken with a few too many caveats... "which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week..."
Rubio in the hot seat over Iran war:
.@SecRubio shuts down @SenBooker: "No one's 'begging' for anything here. The Iranians might be begging — because their economy is losing hundreds of millions of dollars a day."
"I don't know where you're getting this perception that Iran is stronger. Iran has no navy left.… pic.twitter.com/XHVerZeo8D
State media has belatedly responded to Trump's Monday claim that talks between the US and Iran are back on. Trump has even said Tuesday that he expects an agreement for an extended ceasefire to take place "over the next week" - along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
"An informed source says that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US has been stopped for at least a few days for what is called the initial memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington," Fars reports. So this is Iran in effect saying 'not so fast' - as it seeks to 'hold the cards' and maintain some leverage. Trump has not indicated a willingness to resume bombing the Islamic Republic, but his patience has seemed to be wearing thin over the last several days, as the White House is boxed in to only choosing among several 'bad options' in the wake of launching a war of choice 95 days ago.
Oil spikes on the negative news from Tehran, extends:
And more confirmation via newswires:
An Iranian source says there is currently no message exchange with the U.S., contradicting claims of ongoing progress. The source reports talks on an initial understanding have stalled for several days. It also noted Iran’s last communication with Washington concerned Lebanon and drew international attention, despite President Trump stating negotiations are advancing rapidly.
Latest on the Lebanon front:
"American sources for AI Hadath: Proposal for a 60-day plan during which Israel withdraws gradually from southern Lebanon": AI Hadath reports.
- "Negotiations propose the deployment of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon after Israel's withdrawal."
- "Lebanon seeks to resolve Hezbollah's weapons file politically, but after Israel's complete withdrawal."
Various regional and international reports have documented serious ongoing fighting in Lebanon, despite President Trump the day prior having declared that the shooting will cease and that Hezbollah and Israel were forging a limited ceasefire. Trump had said of both sides that "they agreed that all shooting will stop" - after Iran announcing it had suspended peace talks with the US over Israeli military action in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did affirm he would adhere to the agreement, and reports say that planned new airstrikes on Beirut were called off, but he also warned the attacks on the capital would go ahead "if Hezbollah does not stop attacking our cities and civilians" - and that forces in the south would continue operating.
BBC has freshly written that "While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight." The same report details:
Hezbollah said its fighters had targeted Israeli tanks in the southern Lebanese towns of Haddatha and Bayada with missiles and shells. The Israeli military said it had intercepted two projectiles that had been fired from Lebanon in the early hours of Tuesday. No injuries have been reported.
Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported Israeli strikes on several southern areas and said a "very violent" explosion from a large-scale demolition rocked the town of Debbine.
Tuesday has witnessed some ongoing attacks on south Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli troop positions, wounding some. According to some of the latest from Al Jazeera:
Israeli forces have carried out multiple air raids on the city of Nabatieh, one of the largest in southern Lebanon, our colleagues on the ground report. The city, a strategic hub for Hezbollah, has been encircled by Israeli forces in recent days as troops continue pushing north.
Israeli attacks were also reported across the wider Nabatieh district as Israel deepens its occupation of surrounding areas. Drones hit the towns of Kafr Sir and Aabba, while a strike targeted the road leading to Houmine al-Fawqa. The outskirts of Yahmour al-Shaqif were also hit.
There's also been a lot of explosions in the southern city of Tyre, with Israeli jets active in the airspace above on Tuesday. And rescuers have recovered six bodies from another town, with Lebanese civil defense agency having said in a statement: "Since yesterday evening and continuing until this morning … personnel have been carrying out search and rescue operations in a residential building that was targeted in the town of Marwaniyah – Sidon district."
#WATCH: Israel conducts strikes over south Lebanon, Hezbollah fires into northern Israel after US @POTUS @realDonaldTrump announces agreement to halt attacks that neither side has publicly accepted https://t.co/vgbtbZ2sm8 pic.twitter.com/jx5O69Knfo
— Arab News (@arabnews) June 2, 2026Hezbollah's fiber-optic drone attacks have at the same time not ceased: "Two Israeli soldiers have been wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon, the military says, describing their injuries as minor," Al Jazeera reports Tuesday. This is after "Two other Israeli soldiers were killed over the weekend, also in drone attacks, bringing to 26 the number of soldiers killed since fighting escalated three months ago. Four Israeli civilians have also been killed."
Impact of Trump's 'Steamrolling' Netanyahu in Monday CallPresident Trump's angry dressing down of Netanyahu may have had very limited effect, it appears. To review, per Axios during a Monday call Trump was reportedly heard cussing at the Israeli leader and essentially 'steamrolled' him - angry over breaking the Lebanon truce and demanding that Israel's military not attack Beirut.
Trump is said to have told Netanyahu "you’re fucking crazy’" while demanding Lebanon truce: "I’m saving your ass," he also reportedly said. Iran early Monday said it halted talks with Washington because of Israel's escalation in Lebanon.
There's been some reaction from Iran to the Axios report, with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi having remarked, "In this regard, the US president’s claim of having dissuaded Netanyahu from launching a major attack on Beirut is more than a sign of Washington’s peace-seeking, it’s confirmation of America’s direct role in managing the Zionist regime’s aggressions."
How many times have they sold and resold this same story about Biden and now Trump being secretly VERY VERY mad at Netanyahu https://t.co/uGpSULbhhM
— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) June 1, 2026The Iranian official continued to offer Tehran's vew: "If the decision to attack the capital of an independent state can be changed with a single phone call the main question is: why did months of ceasefire violations, aggression against Lebanon, the displacement of its people, and threats to this country’s sovereignty – backed by Western political and military support – continue unabated?" he remarked.
Mark Levin rages over White House leaks of Trump-Netanyahu call...
Mark R. Levin, a close ally of both U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to confirm the veracity of the report earlier by Axios on today’s heated call between Trump and Netanyahu regarding peace negations with Iran as well as… pic.twitter.com/46qmYBJsJZ
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 2, 2026 Trump Returns to Optimism: Agreement 'Over the Next Week'But Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks. While there's hasn't been full confirmation from Tehran's side, Trump has declared the talks as back on:
US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it's not simple for both sides, but they're getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
The very same network points on Tuesday morning:
Israeli and Hezbollah forces continued their attacks on Tuesday despite President Donald Trump's claim that the warring sides had "stopped shooting each other" after his intervention to prevent escalation on Monday.
Lebanon's state-run news agency, NNA, reported three Israeli strikes in separate areas in southern Lebanon. One person was killed, NNA reported. ABC News has contacted the Israel Defense Forces to request comment.
So, once again Trump touting the likelihood of a deal to reopen Hormuz by next week seems extremely wishful and ambitious, to say the least. And we've heard all this before, and been here many times over the past 95 days of war.
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Reactor Developers Advance Sweden's Nuclear Ambitions While State Puts Up $3.7 Billion
Sweden advanced its nuclear revival with two major filings for new capacity and a government proposal to commit up to $3.7 billion in state capital for SMR projects.
On May 18th, Blykalla submitted the first application for an advanced reactor park under Sweden’s new siting process. The Norrsundet site would host six 55-MWe SEALER lead-cooled reactors, for 330 MWe total.
CEO Jacob Stedman called it a historic first for Sweden, and linked the technology to meeting AI and electrification demand with reliable baseload power. Blykalla has a prototype facility underway at Oskarshamn with Uniper and partnerships with Oklo and ABB.
Studsvik filed in May for 600-1400 MWe of SMR capacity at its Nyköping site. This follows the Studsvik group’s earlier March application for Valdemarsvik. CEO Karl Thedéen highlighted the site’s decades of expertise and the intention to deliver real grid capacity in the 2030s as part of the company’s ReFirm program.
The government also recently proposed to acquire a 60% stake in Videberg Kraft AB, the Vattenfall-led project company for up to 1500 MWe at Ringhals. Vattenfall is the state-owned utility company.
The support package includes an initial SEK 1.8 billion ($193 million) injection and up to SEK 34.3 billion (~$3.7 billion) during construction, plus a share of SEK 122 billion (~$13 billion) baseline waste system costs. The structure aims to de-risk the first mover so later projects share fixed costs. Videberg is choosing between five GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300s or three Rolls-Royce SMRs, with selection later this year and investment decision in 2029.
Goldman provided some additional color on Swedish nuclear projects in their recent industry summary. We also touched on Studsvik’s acquisition of Kärnfull Next, which highlights the ongoing skilled engineering manpower bottleneck.
Timelines for first power remain in the early 2030s, with visible construction still months or years away. Sweden shows what policy certainty and state capital can achieve in spurring applications, but China’s pace of actual reactor builds remains the benchmark for delivery.