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"The Real Part Of This Economy Is Not Doing Well": Ed Dowd Warns 'Just Wait 'Til The AI Bubble Bursts'
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the beginning of April that the economy was already rolling over.
He said “Private Credit Problems are Ending the Party.” Just 10 days ago, BlackRock and other firms with so-called private credit are locking up investors’ cash because of a wave of redemptions. Dowd predicted this, and the sagging economy is not going to be getting any better anytime soon.
If you thought private credit was a drag on the economy, then the Iran war is going to be a boat anchor. Dowd says:
“The longer this situation persists, the likelihood of oil drifting higher is going to happen.
We have two scenarios, and one is oil peaks out at $125, and this gets resolved by May. Inflation would peak around 5%...
We are at the point now, if this does not get resolved soon, oil prices could continue to drift higher...
We have a second scenario where we get $200 to $250 a barrel oil, which was our worst-case scenario.
If that happens, inflation will peak out at around 11% by our models...”
Martin Armstrong said two weeks ago that gasoline prices could go to $9 a gallon. Dowd agrees with Armstrong and says you might get $10 a gallon gas in a worst-case scenario. Dowd adds:
“I see oil going a lot higher, which will cause a tremendous amount of demand destruction and a recession that I think is coming anyway.
It will be even deeper than we have forecasted.
It will cause layoffs and economic growth to go into recessionary territory. The prices of commodities will collapse as deflation sets in.
The solution to high commodity prices is high commodity prices because it creates demand destruction.”
So, what’s the Fed going to do? Dowd thinks,
“The Fed could raise rates to combat the headline inflation. My best guess is they do nothing at the June FOMC meeting.
They are certainly not going to cut until they see the economic growth slowing...
Depending on this war . . . the real part of this economy, housing, is not doing well and rolling over.
We are just waiting on the AI bubble to finally burst . . . we are close to that topping out soon.”
Dowd is still bullish on gold and silver long term, but short term, it may get sold off to raise cash like Turkey just did.
Silver will have stronger headwinds than gold given the deflation that is coming.
Dowd does not see China’s economic woes getting any better. Dowd predicted China’s economic problems months ago, and Wall Street is just now catching up on the bad news. Dowd says,
“China had 8% negative growth in the first quarter.”
Dowd goes into a deep dive on the severe economic problems facing China.
Dowd points out big problems in housing and says it’s cheaper to rent a house than to own one.
Dowd also predicts the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates in early 2027 because the deflation will be so severe.
In closing, Dowd says, “This is the normal credit cycle..."
" The credit cycle is old and aging, and we are seeing the credit cycle get chinks in the armor with the private credit situation, which is effectively frozen. This was credit growth that happened in 2024 and 2025.”
There is much more in the 44-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why we are seeing big trouble for the US economy. Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:40Kenya court suspends US plan to establish Ebola quarantine facility for exposed Americans
"False": Musk Denies Bloomberg Report About SpaceX IPO Valuation Drop
Summary:
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Musk says the Bloomberg report is "false"
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SpaceX Reportedly Lowers IPO Valuation Target, as per Bloomberg
Yet again, corporate media is pushing fake news against Elon Musk.
This time, Musk called a Bloomberg report that cited unnamed sources and claimed SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation target "false."
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026 SpaceX Reportedly Lowers IPO Valuation TargetSpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its upcoming initial public offering, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This is below an earlier goal of more than $2 trillion.
In practice, the initial IPO valuation target is a marketing range, not a final number. Therefore, any valuation shifts ahead of the trading day would not be unusual. This suggests advisers are calibrating the deal to what investors are willing to absorb, especially given the massive proposed raise of up to $75 billion.
The target is settling lower after consultations with advisers and investors, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn't public.
Details of an IPO, such as size and valuation, are typically adjusted ahead of pricing based on feedback from stakeholders, the people said.
SpaceX is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, people familiar with the matter have said, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time. -BBG
The May 21 SpaceX S-1 filing revealed that Elon Musk's space company is much more than a reusable-rocket and satellite-internet company. It now encompasses AI services, infrastructure, orbital data centers, and a claimed $28.5 trillion total addressable market.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the IPO is set to price on June 11, with a June 12 debut. The stock is expected to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker "SPCX."
Polymarket bets show a 90% chance that SpaceX's market capitalization will be $1.8 trillion on the IPO date.
//--> //--> SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes 90% · No 10%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
There was speculation earlier this week of a SpaceX-Tesla merger in 2027. Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives has those odds at 80%.
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Kicking The Can On A Ceasefire "Which Does Not Solve Anything"
Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Both Bloomberg and Axios report that the US and Iran have reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days as they engage in further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. However, Tasnim reported that the text of the memorandum of understanding had not been finalized.
US Vice President Vance said that the two sides are still “going back and forth on a couple of language points,” which reportedly includes the wording on Iran’s nuclear capacity. But the Vice President said that Iran appears to be negotiating in good faith, paving the way for Trump’s approval of the ceasefire extension.
While negotiators are trying to dot the i’s and cross the t’s of the memorandum, President Trump has reportedly asked for a couple of days to think about the final deal.
Energy prices fell further on the news that a deal could –again– be imminent, after the US administration made similar claims last week. Brent futures are currently down about 10% on the week. That, in turn, is lifting optimism in other markets. Yields dropped, and green figures returned on stock exchanges.
Admittedly, a 60-day extension would lessen some of the near-term tail risks – although both sides have accused each other of violating the current ceasefire. Just the past day, Kuwait intercepted a missile that Iran had fired at a US base, causing the US to respond with new “defensive strikes” on Iran.
More importantly, a ceasefire does not solve anything, unless the US and Iran manage to agree on the key sticking points during that extended ceasefire.
Treasury Secretary Bessent reminded everyone that Trump’s three red lines are unchanged: Hormuz must reopen, Tehran must end its nuclear programme, and Iran must transfer its highly enriched uranium. As we noted earlier this week, a nuclear deal still seems highly unlikely at this juncture.
Likewise, Iran still believes that it can effectively control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, together with Oman, allowing it to put down toll booths along the strait. Even though this would allow paying ships to cross, that’s not a “reopening” in Trump’s view.
The US imposed sanctions on the Hormuz Strait Shipping Authority, which is supposed to collect the toll. And Bessent warned that “Oman, in particular, should know that the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved –directly or indirectly– in facilitating tolls for the Strait.” President Trump even threatened to “blow them up” if Oman works with Iran to control shipping through Hormuz.
It still seems unlikely that the key sticking points will be resolved soon. On that basis, we have shifted our baseline for Hormuz to remain closed for up to three more months before we see a crisis resolution. Only if either the US or Iran blinks regarding the nuclear programme, could we see a quicker end to the conflict.
Meanwhile, tensions are rising in other parts of the globe too. Talks between the US and Cuba appear to have stalled, while Cuba and China discussed agricultural cooperation, food shipments, and political support. This increases the risk that the US may resort to military aggression. China, meanwhile, claims that a Dutch frigate entered their waters – which the Netherlands disputed; and a Canadian frigate transited the Taiwan Strait, defying Chinese warnings not to do so.
And, as we’ve noted before, even if the US-Iran conflict is resolved sooner, it would still take a substantial amount of time before energy flows return to some form of normalcy. So, some further inflationary pressure is inevitable.
Policymakers are also starting to realize this. The ECB’s Schnabel noted recently that “even if the war ended today, a lot of damage has already been done to energy infrastructure and global supply chains.” She adds that higher costs will probably trickle through global supply chains and into higher goods prices.
The accounts of the April ECB meeting suggest that Schnabel is not the only policymaker who’s concerned about the size and the persistence of the inflation shock. It therefore looks like a June hike is all but a done deal. According to the minutes, some policymakers said that the decision to hold or hike was already a “close call” for them in April. This group essentially indicated that they would not have opposed a rate hike last month, if this had been proposed as the path forward.
Today’s inflation data are further cementing the case for a rate hike. French HICP inflation rose to 2.8% y/y, while Spanish HICP inflation edged up to 3.6%. Meanwhile, business surveys indicate that companies expect to raise selling prices further – although selling price expectations eased a bit in May, compared to the steep increases in the two months prior.
And, worryingly, consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations have started to pick up alongside the rise in current inflation rates. As Schnabel pointed out, these shifts in consumer expectations could be a first indication that expectations are de-anchoring.
However, we still believe that the current backdrop is less conducive to broader and protracted inflationary pressures than 2021-2022. Yesterday’s business confidence survey indicated that employment expectations continue to score below the long-term average. The labor hoarding index remains above its long-term average, but businesses appear to hoard less labor than before.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:00