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Where each Lakers player — and JJ Redick — stands entering offseason

The Liberty hope to be at full strength soon for the first time this season, but that reality will result in some changes to the team’s starting lineup.

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"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

Just about two months ago, JPMorgan did the math on "How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum." The punchline was that while the market can hold hundreds of millions of barrels, it would still become fragile once working stocks fell too low. Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation. 

Then, approximately 4 weeks later, the bank followed up this analysis with some more math, explaining "Why Hormuz Will Reopen By September... One Way Or Another." The bank calculated that of the 8.4 billion barrels in global oil inventories at the start of 2026, only 0.8 billion barrels were realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. Long story short (and the long story can be found here), OECD commercial stocks could fall to operational stress levels by June, and then hit the global operational floor by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, assuming demand destruction stabilized at 5.5 mbd (with oil prices paradoxically dropping since the last JPM article, demand destruction has actually slowed). 

Meanwhile, the biggest paradox during this period when the blocked Hormuz Strait meant that roughly 10 million barrels of oil wasn't reaching its intended destination each day, was that instead of prices going sharply higher to destroy demand, oil prices were actually dropping after peaking in late March and then again a month later, in effect incentivizing more demand. This prompted JPMorgan to published that "Something Is Off" With The Global Oil Math...

... and Goldman to follow up a few weeks later by observing that in May, global oil inventories plunged by a record 8.7 million barrels per day, with Hormuz still largely blocked.

And yet, oil prices are sharply lower in May, in no small part due to the daily market jawboning manipulation by various official and unofficial sources, who signal that an Iran deal is imminent... any minute now. 

Only it isn't, and while the market may prefer to shove its head in the sand, the biggest names in the room are no longer keeping quiet.

Today, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as already near record low crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. 

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” he said at a Bernstein conference on Thursday.

“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

Wirth’s comments follow a 10% fall in oil prices over the past week amid optimism that the US and Iran can agree a deal to end the three-month-long conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of crude flows. They highlight growing concern among economists that the war’s impact on energy prices will continue to be felt for many months after any deal is agreed to end it... not that that moment is even remotely close. The conflict has removed 12mn-13mn barrels of oil a day from global markets.

The comments by Wirth echo a growing chorus of warnings from other oil executives, including the head of the United Arab Emirates state oil group Adnoc, who cautioned last week that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were unlikely to return before next year even if the conflict is resolved.

“It will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,” Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said during an Atlantic Council event on May 21.

Echoing JPMorgan's observations, Wirth said oil prices had not risen as much as people had expected due to higher-than-normal stocks of crude prior to the outbreak of the war, releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and flows of sanctioned oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. But he said these stocks were now running low. One wildcard is the rapid, yet very stealthy, drain of Chinese stocks, both commercial and strategic. With 1.4 billion in China's SPR, the moment of reckoning could be delayed yet again if Beijing decides to open the floodgates. 

Wirth also said the energy crisis would force governments to focus more on “an insurance policy” by building up oil reserves to insulate them from shocks such as the pandemic and wars in Iran and between Russia and Ukraine. “The likelihood that another shock is around the corner is something policymakers are going to have to bear in mind . . . how long they want to roll the dice before they refill inventories is a question that I think we’re going to see policymakers have to grapple with.”

“That’s going to put more demand into the market, which is going to put a bit of additional tension on the price,” he said.

The Chevron boss concluded by warning that damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East would cost tens of billions of dollars to repair, putting additional upwards pressure on prices. “If this goes on for long, it tips us into an economic slowdown or a recession, you might have an offset on the demand side, which you can’t rule out.”

But if Chevron was pessimistic, the company's biggest domestic competitor, Exxon, was downright apocalyptic. Speaking at the same Bernstein conference, Exxon SVP Neil Chapman had some truly horrifying remarks, certainly not something that Donald Trump would like to hear. We present them below.

Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they've all run down. And running down those inventories has mitigated or offset, supplemented by the release of strategic petroleum reserves, which most of the Western countries have done. All of that has mitigated the impact. You can model this. We've modeled it. I think a lot of people in the industry have modeled it.

Nothing new here: we've discussed all this in the previous three months. But it is what he said next that was a moment of shocking insight into just how bad things are about to get: 

We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up. A model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160.

The models would tell you that. And then what happens is when the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance. Prices go so high, it becomes unaffordable. And that's what happens. And so we're at that level right now.

Next, Chapman connected all the abovementioned dots: "I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 for the last whatever it is, six weeks, has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can't last forever. So we'll see what happens.... predicting this and the exact timing, it's always a challenge. But that's the way we see the picture."

Putting all of the above in simple terms: by playing a jawboning game of cat and mouse with oil markets, the Trump administration is only draining stocks, both commercial and strategic, faster as consumers can afford to buy more, and they do. However, the supply sid of the pipeline remains blocked.

And until the war in Iran truly ends, and the Strait returns to normal transit, global inventories will continue to drain by about 10-14 million per day. Which is why when the operational floor is reached in less than three months, the resulting parabolic move in oil will be just as memorable as when it plunged deep into negative territory in April 2020 when traders were paying others any amount asked, to take physical oil off their hands. It will be just like that... only in reverse.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:00

A divided locker room. A divided nation. The microcosms of our status as a community that surface in teams.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has claimed that he told Mayor Zohran Mamdani "everything I wanted to say" when the two met face-to-face last week.

US To Power Base With Nuclear Aircraft Carrier As Navy Mulls New Floating Reactor Program

Later this summer, the nuclear-powered USS Gerald R. Ford will export electricity from its two A1B reactors directly to Naval Station Norfolk, powering the largest naval base in the world from a $13 billion supercarrier sitting at the pier.

Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao provided the news during a May 14 House Armed Services Committee hearing on the FY2027 budget. “This summer, Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia is going to be powered from an aircraft carrier,” he said plainly. “We’re going to export the energy from the aircraft carrier to the base.” 

A Navy spokesperson later confirmed the initial test will happen later this year as part of a broader push for “firm, baseload power” and mission assurance at installations.

The Ford just returned to Norfolk after a record 326-day deployment. Its A1B reactors built by Bechtel and BWXT deliver roughly 25% more energy and operational availability than the older A4W plants on Nimitz-class carriers, with fewer sailors needed to run them. The test will show whether a docked supercarrier can serve as a floating backup generator during grid outages, attacks, or disasters. The idea is also being pitched that the power could also be utilized in drought-stricken areas for potable water production. 

But this isn’t the world’s first floating nuclear power play. The concept dates back to the 70s when a Westinghouse-Tenneco joint venture proposed mass-producing 1,200 MW plants on massive concrete barges off the U.S. East Coast. The idea died in regulatory and political quicksand, but only in the US. 

Russia actually built and operates one. The Akademik Lomonosov, with two KLT-40S reactors delivering about 70 MWe plus district heat, has been supplying the remote Arctic town of Pevek in Chukotka since 2019. It replaced the aging Bilibino nuclear plant and a coal facility. 

Rosatom has pushed follow-on designs using RITM-200M reactors for mining projects like Baimskaya in the far north, with some fabrication shifting to Chinese shipyards. 

Europe remains mostly conceptual. Denmark’s Copenhagen Atomics is reviewing reactor tech for Norwegian firm Ocean-Power’s floating barge ideas, and UK-based Core Power has partnered with Samsung on molten-salt concepts. No steel in the water yet. 

At the same hearing, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle floated something bigger. He called for a Navy reactor pilot program modeled on the Army’s Janus initiative, which has already shortlisted nine domestic bases and is using DIU milestone contracts for microreactors targeted by 2028, and the Air Force’s ANPI program, which selected companies including Antares Nuclear and Radiant, aiming for first power around 2030. 

“While the Army may be tapped to be the overall lead,” Caudle said, “I see no world in which the Navy is not going to be part of that discussion… But we need to get a pilot established and a target date and get one going.”
 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 07:45

The new star of the UCLA baseball team can’t hit a lick. Doesn’t know how to pitch. Wouldn’t budge if a line drive came his way. His claim to fame is being inseparable from pitcher Angel Cervantes. UCLA coach John Savage (left) and pitcher Angel Cervantes are scheduled to open NCAA Tournament play on Friday....

"Significantly Exceeding Expectations": Dell Erupts 40% After AI-Fueled Beat, Outlook Hike

Dell Technologies surged 38% in New York premarket trading after delivering a major earnings beat and issuing a stronger-than-expected annual sales forecast, fueled by explosive demand for AI servers that continues to reshape the hardware sector.

Earnings results reinforce Dell's position as a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, as hyperscaler capex accelerates toward an estimated $800 billion this year and demand for compute-heavy server infrastructure remains robust.

We’re building a Dell AI factory with @nvidia to power @grok for @xai @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/2aTYLtCBup

— Michael Dell 🇺🇸 (@MichaelDell) June 19, 2024

Dell now expects fiscal 2027 revenue of $165 billion to $169 billion, far above its prior forecast of $138 billion to $142 billion and Bloomberg consensus of $142.1 billion. Adjusted earnings are now projected at $17.65 to $18.15 a share, versus the prior view of $12.65 to $13.15.

2027 Forecast:

• Sees revenue $165 billion to $169 billion, saw $138 billion to $142 billion, Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $142.12 billion

• Sees adjusted EPS $17.65 to $18.15, saw $12.65 to $13.15, estimate $13.14

• Sees AI Server revenue $60 billion

Second Quarter Forecast:

• Sees revenue $44 billion to $45 billion, estimate $35.06 billion

• Sees AI Server revenue about $15.5 billion

• Sees adjusted EPS $4.70 to $4.90, estimate $3.05

First-quarter results crushed the analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg. Revenue soared  88% year over year to $43.8 billion, while adjusted EPS hit $4.86, compared with estimates of $2.99. AI server revenue came in at $16.1 billion, exceeding estimates, while AI server backlog rose to $51.3 billion.

First Quarter Results:

Total net revenue $43.84 billion, +88% y/y, estimate $35.52 billion

• AI server revenue $16.1 billion, estimate $13.1b
• Traditional servers and networking revenue $8.5 billion, +92%

Adjusted EPS $4.86 vs. $1.55 y/y, estimate $2.99

AI server backlog $51.3 billion, estimate $45.33 billion

Infrastructure Solutions Group net revenue $29.01 billion vs. $10.32 billion y/y, estimate $22.3 billion

• Storage revenue $4.33 billion, +8.5% y/y, estimate $4.16 billion

Client Solutions Group net revenue $14.61 billion, +17% y/y, estimate $12.93 billion

• Commercial revenue $13.02 billion, +18% y/y, estimate $11.41 billion
• Consumer revenue $1.59 billion, +8.6% y/y, estimate $1.46

Cash flow from operations of $4.1 billion

Adjusted gross margin 18.1% vs. 21.6% y/y, estimate 17.3%

Adjusted operating margin 9.7% vs. 7.1% y/y, estimate 7.82%

Adjusted operating income $4.24 billion vs. $1.67 billion y/y, estimate $2.77 billion

"Our record Q1 performance reflects strong in-quarter demand, as well as our pace of innovation across the full stack of PCs, compute and storage," said Jeff Clarke, vice chairman and chief operating officer, Dell Technologies. "We booked $24.4 billion in AI orders and recognized $16.1 billion of AI server revenue. We're increasing our AI server revenue expectations for FY27 to $60 billion, which only goes to show the AI opportunity shows no signs of slowing."

"Execution was exceptionally strong across the business – from supply chain to sales to pricing – driving record revenue of $43.8 billion, record EPS, record Q1 cash flow of $4.1 billion and continued strong shareholder returns of $2.1 billion," said David Kennedy, chief financial officer, Dell Technologies. "We entered FY27 with clear momentum, raising our full-year revenue outlook to $167 billion at the midpoint, up nearly 50% year over year."

Goldman analysts framed the earnings as "Broad-based beat drives raised FY outlook."

Analyst Katherine Murphy's first take noted, "DELL should trade higher on an earnings beat & better-than-expected FY27 guidance driven by strong AI server expectations and strength in PC profitability."

Murphy's 12-month price target is $230 based on 15.0x our NTM+1Y EPS.

UBS analyst David Vogt raised his target for the stock by a staggering 81% but kept the rating neutral.

Here's what others on Wall Street are saying (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Citi (buy, PT $290)

• "Dell reported results significantly exceeding expectations," and the outlook is positive.

Vital Knowledge

• "There's absolutely nothing to complain about w/huge upside and a big guidance hike (demand is benefiting from AI, but the non-AI parts of the business performed well too, and component price inflation didn't crimp margins)"

Bloomberg Intelligence

• "Dell's robust 1Q sales and EPS beat, along with its sharply higher outlook, was broad-based and suggests sustained demand strength"

• "Even as demand pull-forward drove 1Q results, the magnitude of the guidance increase suggests strength in both AI and traditional servers will continue in coming quarters"

Shares of Dell topped $440 in premarket trading and were up nearly 40%. The trend has gone absolutely parabolic over the past year.

We asked earlier this week: "Will $800 Billion in AI Capex Spending Boost US GDP?"

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 07:20

There was no one to confront Santos face-to-face about his psychosis-fueled rampage through Chinatown nearly seven years ago, or to hear him apologize.

"The ride experienced a malfunction at its initial ascent, however, as designed, it immediately stopped to keep everyone safe."

“Claude Lemieux, a true legend of the game, and one of the fiercest competitors hockey has ever seen, has passed away,” Trump wrote.

Reports suggest negotiations with Iran are nearing a breakthrough as talks continue over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Former First Lady Jill Biden is facing backlash after revealing she feared Joe Biden suffered a stroke during his disastrous 2024 debate performance.

“American Icons,” presented by Fox Nation and hosted by Sebastian Conelli, heads to the Bronx to uncover the gritty apartment building where hip hop was born — and the neighborhood party that changed music forever. From the rec room at 1520 Sedgwick Avenue to the rise of DJ Kool Herc, the episode dives into how...

Goldman Sachs' CEO hasn’t produced music in about three years.

They were two Southern California kids who wanted to restore a legacy when they met on their official visit as USC pitching prospects four years ago. Mason Edwards was just starting to show promise as a left-hander with a sharp breaking ball and improving fastball. USC’s Grant Govel is part of perhaps the nation’s top...

Good luck trying to get a Hamptons hotel or rental in June — usually the easiest month of the summer season to book.

Consumers Face Fiscal-Cliff As Tax-Refund Sugar-High Fades

Nearly two months of the national average gasoline price exceeding the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level have left corporate America increasingly worried about consumer health this earnings season. Kraft Heinz's CEO warned that some households are "literally running out of money," while UBS analysts caution that even as the AI-linked chip and memory bubble inflates markets to new highs, there are growing "consumer cracks beneath the surface."

The Financial Times reports that U.S. consumers may face a cash crunch this summer as Trump-era tax refund tailwinds fade and Iran-related fuel shocks squeeze household budgets.

In other words, the sugar high is ending for consumers... 

Tax refunds averaging nearly $3,500 have largely helped keep spending resilient, with Walmart, Target, and Lowe's citing refund-driven support in recent earnings calls.

Some retailers warn that the boost is only temporary. Target said the tax-refund benefit will fade in the back half of the year, while Advance Auto Parts expects sales to slow as refund tailwinds disappear.

"They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in a recent interview with the WSJ. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings."

Earlier this month, we showed that personal spending growth far outpaced personal income.

... the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3-year low.

PNC Bank analyst Brian LeBlanc noted, "One of the key reasons the economy has remained so resilient to higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and repeated shocks in recent years is that households have stayed in solid financial shape, allowing consumers to keep spending even as job and income growth has slowed."

"The tax refunds have been largely erased by the increase in Middle East price pressure," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, as the FT quoted. "The longer the conflict lasts, the more we move to an adverse scenario where inflation proves more persistent and erodes consumer spending growth."

UBS analyst Mark Paski commented on the FT article in a note titled "Consumer Cracks Beneath the Surface as Markets Push Higher."

Paski wrote: 

Consumer discretionary stocks rose 2.3% last week, but the equal‑weight consumer discretionary cohort has now broken below its Global Financial Crisis (GFC) lows, having previously held that level — underscoring a widening divergence beneath the surface.

At the same time, NDX logged its 15th all‑time high on Friday, while the S&P 500 is now on an eight‑week winning streak. At a high level, that backdrop suggests markets are on solid footing — but consumer‑linked signals are telling a very different story.

Over the weekend, the FT flagged risks of a potential "fiscal cliff" for consumers in the second half of 2026, as excess cash buffers from refunds begin to fade.

It remains tempting to revisit some of the more washed‑out names across the space, which could outperform if key headwinds — including interest rates, crude oil, and inflation sentiment — begin to show signs of peaking. That said, Friday's sharp move in Ross Stores (ROST), up ~8%, does not yet point to a broadening recovery across the group.

More broadly, parts of the consumer complex appear to be approaching a "terminal velocity," with dispersion still pronounced. Retailers are trading better today, but hardlines remain under meaningful pressure.

Recent commentary has not helped sentiment: several companies, including AutoZone (AZO), noted on recent conference calls that quarter‑to‑date (QTD) trends have shown little improvement versus the prior quarter, alongside headwinds from a colder‑than‑expected May.

Net, incoming data points and company commentary continue to reinforce the existing narrative, with little to force a shift in short positioning at this stage.

Signs of consumer stress are rising, with delinquencies climbing across credit cards, auto loans, and student loans, while lower-income households remain trapped on the wrong side of the K-shaped economy.

Taken together, the consumer cliff that the FT warns about will likely prompt the Trump team to ramp up its affordability agenda this summer as the midterms come into view.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 06:55

Israel announced Friday that a Hamas deputy who spearheaded terrorist raids on the Jewish State on October 7, 2023, has been eliminated.

The Mets need their rookie co-ace to rebound if they have any shot of rising from this deep hole.