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The Atomic Crab
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
The Atomic CrabThe Dow Jones hit a fresh all-time high yesterday, surging 1.73% to close at 51,562. The S&P500 posted more modest gains while the NASDAQ closed slightly lower as investors rotated out of some growth-oriented tech names and back towards healthcare and financials with more of a value or cyclical flavor.
Treasuries traded in a narrow range to close with yields little changed, while European sovereigns mostly saw modest declines in yields with the slightest hint of bull steepening evident in some curves. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index was down slightly but is inching higher again in early trade this morning.
Oil markets continue to be a point of focus. Front-month Brent futures closed 2.84% lower yesterday as markets remain of a Pollyanna state of mind over the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Dated Brent went the other way to post a (very) small gain yesterday after a 3.61% lift on Wednesday. The Singapore gasoil for spot delivery index was down 4.45% to $136.57/bbl.
Scuttlebutt over the status of US-Iran peace talks continued to dominate headlines yesterday. Following Donald Trump’s announcement of a Israel/Lebanon ceasefire that was contingent on Hezbollah ceasing its attacks on Israel we had confirmation this morning that Hezbollah has no intention of halting strikes. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem made a statement on Thursday saying that “as long as the occupation exists, the resistance will continue” and calling the negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel “absurd, humiliating and shameful.”
For Israel’s part, defence minister Katz has said that Israeli attacks in Southern Lebanon will continue and that the IDF will maintain “freedom of action” including in Beirut – which has been a red line for the Americans. Benjamin Netanyahu has recently faced criticism at home for being seen to be too compliant with American demands over strikes in Lebanon. Netanyahu faces an election in October, which polling suggests he may lose. Peace on all fronts was an Iranian condition precedent for reopening Hormuz and commencing the 60-day nuclear talks, but it seems that neither belligerent is interested.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s language on the Iran peace talks has gone from “deal imminent”, to “a deal soon, maybe” to “actually, we really don’t need a deal”. Trump showed signs of crabwalking away from a key demand that Iran hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium by saying that he does not need a deal with Iran to secure the uranium, but that there was no reason to send US troops into Iran to do so because the uranium is “entombed”.
Regular readers will recall that RaboResearch updated our Iran war baseline forecast two weeks ago to say that we didn’t think a meaningful deal would stick in the short term, and that the Strait of Hormuz would consequently remain functionally closed until September at least. The incompatibility of the two parties’ nuclear demands was a key factor in this judgement, so it is significant that Trump is now showing hints of softening his position on this point. However, capitulation on the highly enriched uranium or the limits of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program shifts the needle back towards US strategic defeat, with potentially grave consequences for all who have prospered under 80-years of Pax Americana.
We noted here yesterday that Bloomberg had reported that the IAEA had published a restricted document arguing that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher than it was prior to the war. Subsequently, Bloomberg has reported that Iran has permitted IAEA monitors to inspect its Bushehr nuclear plant within the last week, but that Iran has steadfastly refused to comply with requests to verify the condition and location of its highly enriched uranium.
Needless to say, while the US-Iran stalemate continues global oil and oil products stocks continue to run down towards dangerously low levels. Vitol board member Tom Baker recently said that the oil trader estimated global demand destruction at about 4 million barrels a day, mostly from emerging Asia and Africa. China alone has reportedly reduced daily imports by close to 4 million barrels, while strategic reserve releases coordinated by the IEA have also been running close to 4 million barrels a day.
It’s not entirely clear whether or not there is some double counting in the Vitol estimates and China import drop-off, but the back of the napkin calculation gets us somewhere close to the ~12mbbl/day estimated supply loss from the Hormuz closure, and goes some way toward explaining why oil prices have remained remarkably low. Nevertheless, this remains a stocks to flows problem, and the cracks cannot be papered over indefinitely without supply tightness also being felt materially in developed markets.
While China’s reduction in oil imports helps planet earth rebalance energy flows, movements are afoot in Australia to counter Chinese monopsony power over the iron ore trade. China recently formed the state-owned China Mineral Resources Group to coordinate purchases of iron ore cargoes for China’s steel industry and exert market power to ensure that suppliers are paid in CNY, rather than USD. Australian firms supply more than 50% of global iron ore, but those firms have seen their market power eroded by alternative supply coming online in west Africa and an inability to coordinate to counter Chinese market power.
The Australian Financial Review this morning reports overtures from iron ore majors to the Australian government to counter monopsony buying power and give producers more say over how much they are paid and in which currency. Could we see state-backed single desk iron ore marketing in the land down under? Australia’s second-closest neighbour Indonesia recently did just that for coal, palm oil and ferroalloys, and has the world’s largest reserves of nickel – a critical input for Chinese stainless steel and EV battery production.
Elsewhere, there are again renewed hopes for peace prospects in Ukraine as Kyiv’s long-range drone strikes continue to cause havoc deep inside Russia. Vladimir Putin’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum (a kind of Davos for dictators) was recently interrupted by Ukrainian drone strikes on nearby Russian oil infrastructure – prompting Putin to vow that Russia will bolster its defenses against Ukrainian air attacks.
At the same time, Russia’s spring/summer offensive appears to have stalled and news outlets are reporting that Putin is signalling openness to a compromise on Ukraine in line with discussions held with President Trump in Alaska. Putin says that Ukraine needs to accept those compromises, but might there be some wiggle room for Ukraine to extract a better deal given the changed battlefield calculus? For his part, Zelenskyy is pushing for face-to-face talks with Putin to reach peace terms, but Putin says that he will only meet once terms have already been agreed, and that he will only meet in a neutral third-party country, which rules out EU member states in his view.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 10:55Torrential downpours, flooding to wallop Gulf Coast and intensify through the weekend
Was this the moment Aaron Judge suffered major Yankees injury blow?
Mamdani-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier echoed Putin by blaming ‘bullying’ US for Russian invading Ukraine
"Stocks Should Go Up, Not Down": Trump Rages At Market Reaction To 'Great' Jobs Report
Global capital markets are a mess following this morning's hotter than expected rise in US employment.
Nasdaq is down 2%...
Yields are spiking dramatically...
The dollar is rampaging higher...
And Gold (and bitcoin) are getting clubbed like a baby seal...
All of which prompted President Trump to exclaim that "stocks should go up, not down" on the back of a strong jobs report:
It appears the President has not been watching for the last couple of decades as The Fed has become a mainstay and 'good' news removes their pillar of support...
...meaning 'bad' news for stocks.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 10:40Goldman, JPM Block China, Hong Kong Investors From SpaceX IPO
SpaceX's institutional roadshow kicked off Thursday, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hosting a "live interactive discussion" for ultra-wealthy clients across 90 JPM locations in 26 states. Shortly after, SpaceX's IPO slide deck was made public, likely in a bid to supercharge retail demand for what could be the largest public listing in history. However, one key investor pool appears to be shut out: China and Hong Kong.
Bloomberg News reports that SpaceX's underwriters have blocked investors in China and Hong Kong from participating in the company's planned IPO, citing regulatory and compliance concerns.
Goldman Sachs and JPM, the lead banks managing the $75 billion offering, instructed syndicate members not to accept orders from China- and Hong Kong-based customers, including private banking clients.
In total, SpaceX plans to sell about 555.6 million shares at a price of $135 per share, which would net the space, rocket, AI, and defense company $75 billion. The valuation appears to be set at around $1.8 trillion.
There were reports earlier this morning that SpaceX's IPO website and slide deck were inaccessible in China and Hong Kong.
Important read here: We laid out a deep dive for readers on the SpaceX offering and how to trade what could become the world's largest IPO. This was followed by Goldman's report questioning whether markets can absorb the massive supply from the coming IPO wave.
First up is SpaceX next Friday, with the chatbot makers likely in the back half of the year.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 10:20Rubio: 'Most Of The World Assesses' That Israel Has Nuclear Weapons
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday was asked whether Israel has nuclear weapons and acknowledged that "most of the world assesses that they do," but also reaffirmed the US policy of not acknowledging the existence of Israel’s nuclear stockpile and secret weapons program.
Rubio made the comments when being questioned by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), who recently led a letter to the State Department asking for answers about Israel's nuclear weapons program. Rubio’s State Department responded by referring the group of Democratic lawmakers to the government of Israel.
The stakes are too high to stay in the dark on Israel’s nuclear capabilities.
Today, I asked Secretary Rubio if Israel has a nuclear program. He said "most of the world assesses that they do" and committed to providing more information. pic.twitter.com/TOPiCmq7h5
“I have to say, Mr. Secretary, that’s a very bizarre response,” Castro told Rubio at a congressional hearing. Castro then asked Rubio if he could tell the American people whether or not Israel has nukes.
“You know that that’s a question we don’t, they’ve never acknowledged to have a nuclear program, people can have, as you know, an open source and other reporting suspicions about what they possess. If we're speaking frankly, I think most of the world asseses that they do,” Rubio said.
“But they’ve never acknowledged that publicly, and as a feature of our foreign policy, for a variety of reasons, we don’t discuss it that way either,” he added.
Castro expressed concern over what Israel’s “red lines” could be when it comes to using its nuclear weapons and said he was “shocked that our government wouldn’t make an effort to know, to understand and then to give our oversight body the information that we need to make decisions about the war. Rubio said Castro’s concerns were “fair” and that he’d be willing to answer more questions in a classified briefing.
Every US presidential administration since President Nixon has maintained an understanding with Israel under which the US and Israel do not acknowledge Israel’s nuclear weapons program, and the US doesn’t pressure Israel to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The ambiguity has allowed the US presidents to provide military assistance without worrying about the 1976 Symington Amendment, a foreign assistance law that prohibits aid to countries that traffic in or receive nuclear enrichment equipment or technology outside of international safeguards.
Israel’s nuclear arsenal, which is estimated to be somewhere between 70 and 300 nuclear warheads, is almost always missing from the conversation in US media coverage and political discussions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, which has never been used to develop weapons. Unlike Israel, Iran is a signatory to the NPT, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader, who was killed by an Israeli strike on February 28, had issued a Fatwa banning the development of nuclear weapons.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 10:00Bryan Kohberger’s victims ‘endured a high degree of pain’ and suffering, unsealed autopsy reports show
Feds announce several election-fraud investigations in California while revealing ‘serious structural vulnerabilities’
US Jobs Soar By 172K In May, Smashing Estimates In 4 Sigma Beat; Unemployment Rate Remains At 4.3%
With Wall Street expecting a strong - not great - number, and a modest decline from April's 115K, moments ago the BLS reported a shocker: in May the US added 172K jobs...
... not only a 4-sigma beat to the median estimate of 88K, but also above the highest estimate of 125K.
In a noteable change from previous months' downware revisions, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised up by 29,000, from +185,000 to +214,000, and the change for April was revised up by 64,000, from +115,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 93,000 higher than previously reported.
Turning to the Household survey, unlike previous months, we saw the number of employed people rise by 149K from 162.622K to 162.771K...
... with both the Household and Establishment survey rising for the first time in months.
The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, in line with expectations. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates showed little or no change in May for adult men (4.0%), adult women (3.8%), teenagers (14.7% ), and people who are White (3.8%), Black (6.6%), Asian (3.8%), or Hispanic (5.0%).
The labor force participation rate held at 61.8% in May, and the employment-population ratio changed little at 59.2 percent. These measures showed little change over the year, after accounting for annual population control adjustments.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents or 0.3%, in line with estimates. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4%, also in line with estimates. In May, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.31
Some more details from the report:
- The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.2 million in May, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 2.0 million but is up by 524,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.5 percent of all unemployed people in May.
- The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in May. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
- In May, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.2 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
- Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in May. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 486,000 in May, essentially unchanged from the previous month.
Taking a closer look at the Establishment survey, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined.
- Leisure and hospitality added 70,000 jobs in May, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, food services and drinking places added 48,000 jobs.
- In May, employment in local government rose by 55,000, largely reflecting a gain in local government, excluding education (+44,000).
- Health care added 35,000 jobs in May, in line with the average monthly gain of 38,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, ambulatory health care services added 26,000 jobs, including a gain of 11,000 in home health care services. Employment continued to trend up in hospitals (+6,000).
- Social assistance employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000), mostly in individual and family services (+10,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 17,000 jobs per month.
- Employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction increased by 5,000 in May and is up by 10,000 since February.
- Financial activities employment declined by 22,000 in May and is down by 107,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. Over the month, job losses occurred in insurance carriers and related activities (-11,000) and commercial banking (-3,000).
- Employment in transportation and warehousing was essentially unchanged in May (+1,000) but is down by 92,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025. Over the month, transit and ground passenger transportation (+9,000) and warehousing and storage (+6,000) added jobs. Air transportation lost 9,000 jobs, largely reflecting a business closure.
- Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, and other services.
And visually:
One notable thing about the composition was the unexpected surge in Local Government jobs, which surged by 55K, the biggest jump since March 2024. It is unclear what prompted this.
Indeed, the composition of the job gains leaves a lot to be desired. As UBS notes, the upside surprise in May payrolls is concentrated in a few sectors with clear calendar and seasonal tailwinds, rather than broad-based strength.
The largest contributor was leisure & hospitality (+70k), far above its recent trend, consistent with UBS’s expectation that the timing of Memorial Day pulled hiring forward into May from June. Local government (+55k) was another key driver, likely reflecting smaller-than-usual seasonal education outflows and stronger non-education hiring, in line with UBS’s upside risks around state/local dynamics. Healthcare (+35k) and social assistance (+12k) provided steady baseline gains. Meanwhile, financial activities (-22k) detracted meaningfully.
Government and government-related sectors accounted for majority of job growth in May.
Local government +55K (biggest surge since March 2024)
Education and Health +40K
Add Leisure and Hospitality which was +70K, and that covers all gains pic.twitter.com/VZM0LpTZHG
Putting it together, UBS concludes that the beat looks largely explained by timing distortions (holiday effects), public-sector swings, and steady services hiring, rather than a genuine reacceleration in underlying labour demand - reinforcing expectations that some of this strength may unwind or revise lower in coming months.
Others were similarly unimpressed: according to Vanguard, "Today's strong jobs number looks appears like a seasonal surge than a turning point for the labor market. The labor market still appears resilient, but not as if it’s reaccelerating, and the unemployment rate remains essentially stuck around 4.3%. What’s notable is that unemployment is increasingly concentrated among younger, more educated workers who are staying in the labor force, and that’s one reason it may be harder for the rate to move meaningfully lower from here"
Looking at the composition of the numbers, we see even more weakness, with part-time jobs +266K while full-time jobs drop by 79K, second month of decline in a row and 4th in the past 5.
in kneejerk reaction, today's very hot print immediately pushed rate hike odds higher, with traders now fully pricing in a quarter point rate hike by year-end. According to Adam Crisafulli, "This jobs report will make life even harder for Warsh as his preferred dovish policy pathway is even more difficult to justify."
As for the market, it is unclear how traders read this. As a reminder, JPM said that any number above 130k, could lead to SPX loses 1% to gains 50bp, depending on the internals. And now the narrative begins to nudge said internals in a bullish direction.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 09:49Graham Platner, Susan Collins tied in Maine Senate race post-sexting scandal, new poll shows
Secret memo called ‘Maga Talking Points’ tells Hollywood lefties how to converse with Trump
Iran Oil Exports Plunge To Four Year Low As Blockade Tightens, While Inflation Soars To World War 2 Levels
If it was indeed Trump's intention to starve Iran's economy of oil export revenue, the plan may just be working: Iran's oil exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years in May as the US naval blockade has succeeded in choking off crude shipments and leave tens of millions of barrels stranded at sea.
According to shipping data from Vortexa, Iran exported just 209,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in May, down from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March. Kpler had estimated May exports slightly higher at 260,000 bpd, but still the lowest level since the height of the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign in 2019-2020.
When the blockade first took effect in April, analysts expected Tehran to lean on floating storage while waiting for an opportunity to move barrels, which it did with ease as it had control of the strait thanks to its own blockade (much to our surprise, as we asked back in early March why the US didn't do the same). But storage is no longer growing. According to Kpler, floating inventories have fallen from roughly 190 million barrels in late April to about 147 million barrels today as cargoes continue trickling into China and production slows.
Meanwhile, another problem for Tehran is that China's appetite for oil is not only not growing, it is crashing just as Iran needs buyers most (see "Traders Puzzled As Physical Oil Prices Tumble Amid Surging Chinese Crude Sales, Plunging Imports").
Independent Chinese refiners have begun cutting processing rates amid weak margins and comfortable fuel inventories, reducing demand for sanctioned barrels.
That shift has already pushed Iranian Light crude from a premium to a discount. As Reuters notes, plunging demand from Iran’s top crude buyer, China, has dragged Iranian flagship oil prices into discounts to ICE Brent for the first time in two months, trade sources told Reuters on Thursday, noting that Iranian Light crude is offered at discounts ranging from $0.50 to $1 per barrel to ICE Brent for delivery in June into the province of Shandong, the home of the teapots. As recently as a month ago, Iranian Light cargoes were sold at premiums of $1–2 per barrel over ICE Brent in April and May.
Meanwhile, roughly 67 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate remain stranded inside the Gulf and Gulf of Oman, according to Kpler estimates.
Worse, analysts say time may be running short. Kpler's Homayoun Falakshahi warned that if the blockade remains in place for another two months, Iran could effectively run out of available oil to ship to China.
The market implications extend beyond Iran. Every barrel removed from export markets tightens an already strained global supply picture at a time when Middle East disruptions have already slashed regional exports. For now, fewer tankers leaving Iran means fewer barrels reaching buyers. Eventually, it will mean fewer barrels being produced.
But the implications certainly also impact Iran, whose economy is now imploding, as a decline of 1 million barrels from the 1.3 million April daily average translates into a roughly $80 million drop in export revenues per day, or $2.5 billion per month, which Iran's IRGC leadership no longer collects to control the population and the local army.
As a result, inflation in Iran reached a level in May unseen since World War II, underlining the economic pain average Iranians face as the Islamic Republic worries about the war with Israel and the United States restarting.
A report Monday by Iran's Central Bank represents the first official acknowledgment of what Iranians shopping, paying for a taxi or visiting a medical clinic already know: The rial currency is being crushed by the war and uncertainty around it resuming.
Iran's Central Bank said the consumer price index reached 77.2% in May compared to the year before. It added the rate is 8.5% higher than in April. Inflation in daily and general needs - like medicine, taxi fares, tobacco and communication fees - rose 113.8% from the year before. May as well call it hyperinflation: the rial, which traded at 32,000 to $1 in 2015, now trades at over 1.7 million to $1.
“We will definitely have higher prices," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in May. "We are fighting and we must accept this hardship.”
Iran only saw worse inflation in 1942 during World War II, sparked by the British and Soviets invading the country and taking over its railway, disrupting food supplies. The lack of food, worsened by a poor harvest, sparked hyperinflation and a famine. Hunger and a typhus outbreak killed many.
A private economic think tank in Iran, the Bamdad Institute of Economic Studies, described the current figures as “an unprecedented rate since World War II.” Iran's Central Bank did not acknowledge the significance of the figures.
Which begs the question: is Iran about to have another round of violent protests? In 2017 into 2018, soaring food prices sparked demonstrations that killed over 20 people and saw hundreds arrested. An increase in government-subsidized gasoline prices caused protests that saw over 300 people reportedly killed.
Then came the protests over the rial at the start of this year, the most intense demonstrations to shake the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution and chaotic years that followed.
Tehran-based economist Saeed Leilaz, speaking to The Associated Press, warned that annual inflation in Iran could reach 80%.
"Iran’s society cannot tolerate above 25%” annual inflation, he warned.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 09:45