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Lululemon Bear Market Deepens After Guidance Cut Spooks Wall Street
Lululemon tumbled in New York premarket trading as its multi-year bear market deepened, with shares on track to revisit levels last seen since 2018 after a guidance cut.
The struggling athleticwear company now expects full-year revenue of $11 billion to $11.15 billion, below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $11.49 billion, while its second-quarter sales and profit forecasts also missed the mark.
Full Year Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
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Sees net revenue $11 billion to $11.15 billion, saw $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, estimates $11.49 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
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Sees EPS $10.95 to $11.15, saw $12.10 to $12.30, estimate $12.38
Second Quarter Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
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Sees net revenue $2.45 billion to $2.48 billion, estimates $2.6 billion
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Sees EPS $1.76 to $1.81, estimate $2.69
Lululemon's first-quarter results showed modest top-line growth but continued weakness in underlying demand, especially in the Americas.
EPS $1.69 vs. $2.60 y/y, estimate $1.69
Net revenue $2.47 billion, +4.3% y/y, estimate $2.44 billion
Total comp sales constant currency -2%, estimate -0.23%
- Americas comp sales in constant currency -6%, estimate -7.14%
- International Comp Sales Ex-Fx +8%, estimate +13.2%
Gross margin 54.2%, estimate 54.6%
Operating margin 11.2%, estimate 11.5%
Inventory $1.69 billion, estimate $1.8 billion
Total location count 816, estimate 818
"We experienced a solid start to 2026 as our teams executed with speed, agility, and discipline. Our work to drive improvements in North America resulted in some positive signals in the quarter, including a sequential improvement in full-price sales," Meghan Frank, Interim Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer, wrote in a press release.
Frank then pointed out, "More recently, we have been navigating headwinds that have led us to adjust our outlook for the full year. We have assessed the business and are taking additional actions to reposition where needed and further strengthen our product engine. We remain confident in our path forward."
The dismal forecast adds pressure on incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill to orchestrate a proper turnaround. The former Nike executive takes the helm in September with a mandate to restore Lululemon's momentum amid brand drift, market-share losses, and product-release fiascos.
Shares plunged 12% in premarket trading, tagging levels not seen since 2018. The stock is nearing double-digit territory after falling from grace, having peaked around $500 a share in late 2023.
Wall Street analyst commentary:
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal
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"Lululemon's 1Q sales beat consensus but were still below historical standards and, coupled with weaker guidance, suggest headwinds from markdowns and tariffs"
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"Backlash from negative commentary toward the end of 1Q put downward pressure on results globally but trends have since improved"
Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih (equal weight, PT to $113 from $161 )
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While Lululemon’s 1Q earnings met expectations, its forecast for 2Q26/FY26 disappointed
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"Traffic trends weakened at the end of April and into May due to bad press and product issues"
Piper Sandler analyst Anna Andreeva (neutral, PT to $110 from $130)
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After an in-line quarter, Lululemon "saw conversion drop off into April"
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"For 2H26, LULU expects sales trends relatively consistent with 2Q26, although lowered guidance still embeds EPS improvement
Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg are mostly neutral on the stock.
In recent weeks, Lululemon settled a proxy fight with founder Chip Wilson, ending one of the year's top proxy battles. The deal gives Wilson two board nominees and includes a commitment to find another mutually agreed-upon director at a future date.
Wilson has been highly critical of the company as its North American sales weaken, competition from Alo and Vuori intensifies, and its market capitalization has evaporated over the last few years.
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Britain's Borrowing Outlook Darkens As Energy Shock Deepens
Via City AM,
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The OBR says it underestimated the fiscal damage from the 2022 energy shock and will apply those lessons to the latest Middle East-driven price surge.
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Higher oil and gas prices could increase UK borrowing through debt interest, welfare payments, and pressure on departmental budgets.
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The Bank of England has warned that a severe energy shock could push inflation above 6% and force tighter monetary policy.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been warned that government borrowing is set to spike as a result of the Iran war, as the Office for Budget Responsibility admitted it had underestimated the effects of the last energy price shock.
In a review of its forecasting models, the OBR suggested it had learned lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which led to gas prices rising by around five times.
It said the overall impact on public finances “was to significantly increase government borrowing and debt” despite some government revenue being raised by taxes on energy companies’ profits and higher wage growth.
The surge in government borrowing was driven by a rise in debt interest costs, welfare benefits, and the maintenance of real-terms increases to departmental budgets, according to analysis.
The OBR concluded that it would apply the lessons from its forecast review to the energy price shock caused by the Iran war in this year’s Budget.
The analysis suggests that the OBR could take a more pessimistic view on government borrowing, with oil prices jumping by around 40 per cent since the beginning of the war in March and wholesale European gas prices doubling.
Economists have warned that stalled peace negotiations will lead to prolonged disruption across the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trading route for oil tankers and large ships.
The Bank of England warned in a worst-case scenario analysis that continued disruption would push inflation above six per cent and force it to undo all interest rate cuts made in the last two years.
OBR builds on previous analysisIn 2024, when Iran and Israel appeared to be close to an all-out war, the OBR conducted an initial analysis of what disruption could mean for UK public finances.
The OBR then estimated that the UK government would have to borrow an average of £23.1bn more a year if there were a cut to energy supplies “comparable to the 1973 oil embargo”, City AM found.
Economists have widely suggested that the current blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the Iran war, is the worst global oil supply shock recorded in history. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said it was more serious than supply shocks in “1973, 1979 and 2022 together”.
Under the OBR’s assumption, oil and wholesale gas prices would remain 75 per cent higher over the course of a year.
Peace talks between the US, Israel and Iran appear to be on ice after Israel restarted attacks in Lebanon against an Iranian-backed militant group. Israel then paused its attacks on Hizbollah as President Trump reportedly told Prime Minister Netanyahu, “everybody hates Israel because of this”.
The Brent Crude Oil price fell to $85 per barrel on news of a possible return to peace negotiations, although trading prices have been volatile due to uncertainty over possible peace terms. The price climbed as high as $114 per barrel last month.
Reeves’ package to have minimal effectAlongside assessments of the Iran war’s impact on the UK economy, the OBR is also expected to update forecasts based on any energy support package unveiled by Reeves or any following Chancellor.
Analysis by JP Morgan found that initial action to offer families discounts and to freeze a fuel duty hike would strip 0.2 percentage points off inflation.
The OBR said on Tuesday it would also tweak its models for forecasting business tax receipts and local authority expenditure.
It will also revise the link between higher unemployment and benefits.
Economists at the independent body also hit back at Labour MPs who suggested that models for forecasting the growth effects of extra public expenditure were skewed, claiming it was “unlikely” that calculations were misguided, given that the UK economy had underperformed despite a surge in government spending.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/05/2026 - 06:30