President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headline "Here's how to crush Tehran in three moves."
Trump's new social media post, issued without additional comment, comes just after news of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. So now the world awaits what's next at a moment the White House has renewed threats of massive military strikes if Iran doesn't quickly come to the table and conform.
The NY Post article had straight-faced and without a hint of intended irony proclaimed: "President Trump has the upper hand." That statement was issued on day 63 of Trump's Iran war. Today is day 83.
What did the interim look like as the world's most powerful military force has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid constant threats to take new, bigger military action - but which never actually materializes (at least not yet) no matter how many times the Iranians reject Washington's terms?
The below timeline and outline, stretching from last week into this one, basically illustrates the weekly Trump pattern that's been on display going back many weeks at this point:
This is what 'winning' looks like according to the NY Post, apparently. The publication also feels itself in a position to give 'advice' and guidance to the White House on executing a war. "His best path forward is to pursue three lines of effort in parallel," author Richard Goldberg (of Foundation for Defense of Democracies) wrote. It must be remembered that very recently a former senior official from FDD Action, the think tank's lobbying arm, joined Trump's Iran negotiating team - his name is Nick Stewart.
Here are the three:
...if only simply ordering a military "path through" was that easy!
NurPhoto via Getty Images"You might call the latter Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking cease-fire," Goldberg, who openly boasts of his close ties to the Israeli government, also wrote. He further offered the mission name of "Blockade Plus".
After the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, when it became clear that the large-scale US and Israeli bombardment would not produced regime change in Iran, pundits widely questioned whether the Trump White House actually had a plan, or long-term strategic vision for the military mission.
And now, after more than 80 days in, the public gets Trump posting a NY Post article by a hawkish FDD writer, which seems more focused merely on ways to mitigate the blowback and 'make the best' of a failed regime change operation, in the wake of the administration's constantly evolving stated goals.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:50Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
To say that the world is in turmoil to an extent not seen since the 1960s is an understatement.
The war in Ukraine is now in its fifth year. The war in Iran continues with no end in sight, despite Trump’s optimistic talk. NATO may be nearing the break-up stage as Trump pulls U.S. troops out of Germany.
Energy prices are soaring, inflation has accelerated sharply again, consumer confidence has fallen sharply, debt is at an all-time high and supply chains are breaking down.
Yet the major U.S. stock indices are at or near all-time highs.
What accounts for record stock prices amid almost unprecedented turmoil?
There are a number of key factors supporting stocks. The most obvious is the AI frenzy. This has two aspects. The first is that AI applications can improve productivity. The second is that the build-out of data centers with the most advanced semiconductors has led to a $1 trillion capital investment tsunami as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI providers build their server farms.
The next factor is related to the first and is often called the picks-and-shovels trade. The idea is that those who benefit in a gold rush are not the gold miners but the merchants who sell tools, clothes, supplies and other goods the miners need.
In the AI gold rush, the winners are electricity suppliers, builders, hardware manufacturers (semiconductors and servers) and small towns where the server farms are located. These suppliers will do well today whether AI lives up to its promise or not.
Passive AggressionAnother major factor is passive investing. An enormous amount of U.S. wealth is held in 401(k)s, IRAs and assets under management by wealth managers.
Relatively few of the account holders (or, for that matter, wealth managers) really understand active stock investing or risk management. Instead, they buy index funds, ETFs or other equity basket products that track the stock market itself or a specified segment.
When money is put into these index funds, the manager buys the stocks in the index. That buying pushes stock prices higher. That attracts more money, more buying and more gains in a positive feedback loop that drives stocks even higher. No Ph.D. is required. You just buy the index, sit back and enjoy the ride.
FOMO and TINATwo other factors related to the passive investing feedback loop are fear of missing out (FOMO) and the idea that there is no alternative (TINA). It’s difficult to show up at a cocktail party or the country club when all of your friends are touting their stock gains and you’re not in the market.
It’s also difficult to put money in 4% cash equivalents or assets like gold when stocks seem set to deliver 10% returns as far as the eye can see.
FOMO and TINA have nothing to do with fundamental stock analysis. But they are real and powerful drivers of human behavior.
It’s not all fairy dust, however. There are actual fundamental drivers behind stock gains. Corporate profits are coming in strong (despite some high-profile missed estimates). U.S. energy self-sufficiency will keep the lights on in the U.S. and help prevent 1970s-style gas lines — even if we are not immune to the impact of higher prices.
That’s the argument for higher stock prices despite global problems. What could possibly go wrong?
Unrecognized RisksThe greatest threat to higher stock prices is that the market has not fully discounted the impact of the war in Iran and the unprecedented disruption in the supply of oil, liquid natural gas, nitrates for fertilizer, helium, sulphur, aluminum and other critical inputs.
The reality of these shortages has not hit home (with the exception of higher prices for gasoline and oil), but that does not mean the coast is clear.
An enormous amount of oil supply was already on vessels that left the Strait of Hormuz before the war began. That “floating supply chain” took weeks to be delivered to end users. That process has now been completed; the last deliveries have been made. There is nothing else on the way.
Major manufacturing nations like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China are now using up reserves. These may last another month or so. The critical point at which reserves are gone, no resupply is on the way and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed grows nearer by the day.
Even if the strait reopens tomorrow, the current shortages will raise prices, disrupt supply chains and possibly lead to a global recession. Markets seem to be ignoring this possibility in favor of a narrative that says the strait will reopen soon and all will be well.
Great Expectations (for AI)Eventually, it may also occur to markets that AI is not producing any revenue. It’s consuming $1 trillion in capital and promising untold riches, but those riches have yet to materialize. AI is a powerful technology and it’s here to stay. But that does not mean it will be particularly profitable. It may even hurt growth if hundreds of thousands of skilled workers are laid off.
There are serious reasons to believe that AI will not be that productive at all. Output errors (called “slop”) not only cast doubt on the reliability of AI, but are also populating the internet, which AI itself uses as a training set for new applications.
More slop in the training set means even less reliable output than earlier versions. The dream of superintelligence (artificial general intelligence, AGI) is out of reach because of the inability of engineers to code abductive logic.
If the AI bubble bursts (which I expect), it will not only hurt the Mag 7 stocks but also the picks-and-shovels plays around it.
The Private Credit CanaryA separate trigger for a market meltdown is the crisis in private credit. Funds sponsored by top managers like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, KKR, Morgan Stanley and others are severely limiting investor withdrawals.
Complicating matters further, if fund managers try to sell assets quickly, there may be very few buyers unless the seller agrees to slash the price dramatically — sometimes by half or more compared with the stated “book value.”
Supporters of private credit say that this private market is only worth about $4 trillion and that even 20% write-offs will not jeopardize the system. But this calculation ignores the impact of leverage and the effects of contagion. Losses in private credit can trigger runs on mid-tier banks, which then spread to funds that hold those mid-tier bank stocks and so on.
The Dark Side of PassiveBut the greatest threat to the stock market may be the dominance of passive investing.
The same buying dynamic that drives stock prices higher can work in reverse. A market drawdown can cause investors to sell their index funds. This causes fund managers to sell the underlying stocks, which takes down the indices, causing more selling by investors and so on.
While passive investing can push markets higher gradually, it can also drive them lower with startling speed and violence.
What’s an investor to do? The positive story for stocks is real, but the downside potential is equally real. The solution is to hedge by diversifying your portfolio. Keep some stocks, but also maintain a slice of cash, a slice of gold and medium-term U.S. Treasury notes.
Gold is the everything hedge. Treasury notes are secure and will rally when the recession goes into high gear. Cash will give you the option to go shopping for bargains when everyone else is dumping stocks.
TINA and FOMO are not your friends. Diversification is.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:40Iran has been seeking to significantly expand the area around the Strait of Hormuz over which it claims military control by this week advancing the newly-created government agency of the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority".
The agency quickly published a map proclaiming "Iranian armed forces oversight" across more than 22,000 sq km (8,800 sq miles) of the Hormuz waterway. Now, all transit through the strait "requires coordination with and authorization from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority" - the new entity announced.
Of course, Washington has made clear that international vessels must not comply with Iran's rules. Yet Tehran is Wednesday into Thursday claiming some 'victories' in this regard.
The Iranians say they are in active discussions with Oman to establish a permanent toll system for maritime traffic passing through the strait, according to Iran’s ambassador to France, Mohammad Amin-Nejad.
"Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner, prevent pollution, and simply strive to establish an order so that global trade is not subject to disruptions. This will entail costs, and it goes without saying that those who wish to benefit from this traffic must also pay their share," Amin-Nejad said, as cited in Bloomberg.
Amin-Nejad further asserted the potential costs would be "clear, transparent, reasonable, and logical" - though the system is not yet in place. An initial toll proposal, which some companies may have already paid in order to get their stranded vessels out, was reportedly up to $2 million per tanker.
Iran is also touting that China and and South Korea have been in direct communication to arrange passage of their ships:
Iran continues to control the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz for political and propaganda gains as the war of words continues over the peace negotiations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy is claiming to have increased the flow with Chinese tankers and the first South Korean tanker permitted to make the transit, while many other vessels continue to wait.
...The IRGC Navy released a statement claiming that in the past 24 hours, a total of 26 vessels safely transited the Strait of Hormuz. It said this included tankers as well as containerships and other vessels. It asserted, however, that they were all “under the coordination and security support” of the IRGC Navy. They said all the ships making the transit had obtained prior authorization and required close coordination with the IRGC.
...South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced May 20 that its first tanker had been able to make the transit carrying about two million barrels of crude bound for Ulsan. It said there are 25 other South Korean-flagged vessels still caught in the Persian Gulf, but it was significant after Iran refused transit a month ago to another South Korean tanker that was reportedly bound for Pakistan.
If Tehran can attract each country to make separate deals for the passage of their ships, this will be hailed as a 'win' for Iran and its Hormuz protocols.
But the US and its regional allies are not buying into Iran's narrative, with the UAE having described Iran's claims of control as "nothing but fragments of dreams."
And importantly, on Thursday US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz would render a diplomatic deal unfeasible and that the US remains "very upset with NATO" their response to the Iran crisis. He said:
"A toll collection system in the Strait of Hormuz will make a diplomatic deal impossible."
"We are very disappointed with NATO allies, we will discuss the issue of troop deployment at the upcoming meeting."
Some vessels are paying Iranian authorities more than $150,000 for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters. The US has warned that such payments might trigger American sanctions but some ship owners are paying anyway https://t.co/87HQZcBDcr pic.twitter.com/nuc7UXaFX9
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 21, 2026But at this point, Tehran doesn't look to be in a rush to complete a deal. Trump could be ready to indefinitely withhold new military strikes, and Iran is busy rearming and regrouping. Also, as enough time passes with the stalemated situation in place, Tehran is likely to convince more countries that they have no choice but to deal with the Islamic Republic directly.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:20Congressional Democrats are moving to shut down President Donald Trump’s proposed $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund, escalating a political fight over compensation for Americans who say they were targeted by politically motivated prosecutions and federal lawfare.
Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, is introducing legislation aimed at preventing any federal money from being used to create or distribute payments through the fund.
According to a copy of the bill shared with Axios, the legislation states that “no Federal funds may be used to create or make payments” tied to the Trump administration’s Anti-Weaponization Fund.
The fund emerged from a settlement between Trump and the Internal Revenue Service after the president sued the agency over the leaking of his confidential tax returns during his first term.
Under the settlement framework, individuals claiming they were victims of politically motivated prosecutions or government abuse would be able to seek compensation.
Potential applicants could include January 6 defendants and others who were unfairly targeted by federal authorities.
Raskin is reportedly considering using a discharge petition to force a House vote if Republican leadership blocks the measure from reaching the floor.
At the same time, some establishment Republicans are also voicing opposition to the fund. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick told reporters Wednesday that he would “try to kill” the program.
“We’re going to write a letter to the [attorney general] to start, but we’re considering a legislative option,” Fitzpatrick said.
Supporters of the fund argue it represents a long-overdue effort to compensate Americans harmed by politically driven prosecutions and abuses of government power.
Critics, meanwhile, claim the program would improperly use taxpayer money to compensate individuals tied to controversial investigations, including those connected to the January 6 Capitol protest.
Two law enforcement officers who were present at the Capitol on Jan. 6 have already filed a lawsuit seeking to dissolve the fund entirely.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 15:00